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GMO
The International Active EAFE Strategy returned +11.6% net of fees in the third quarter; the MSCI EAFE index also gained 11.6%. Positive stock selection was offset by negative country selection. The strategy lagged its benchmark by 0.4 percentage points for the first three quarters of 2013, returning +15.8%.
5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
GMO
Europe emerged from the potentially rocky third quarter in a more stable position. Chancellor Merkel and the Christian Democratic Unions (CDU) election win in Germany and Prime Minister Lettas winning the Italian confidence vote have taken two of the big risks off the table for Europe. Mario Draghis steady hand at the ECB has also helped soothe market volatility. We are even seeing nascent signs of an economic recovery in Europe with leading indicators turning up. With the elections over in Germany and the potential for the proEuropean Socialists to be part of a grand coalition, it is now possible to focus on the structural issues facing the European economy. The German elections were supposed to be the big event of the year, but the re-election of the steady-handed Chancellor Merkel was without drama. However, she achieved just short of absolute majority in the Bundestag, the lower house. This combined with the failure of the Free Democrats, her former coalition partners, to cross the 5% hurdle needed to send members to the lower house has created some uncertainty as Merkel now needs to find a new coalition partner. Fortunately, the far-right anti-Europe party also failed to clear the 5% mark. The most likely scenario is a repeat of 2009, when the CDU formed a grand coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD). We believe a grand coalition is a good thing for Europe. Socialists are known to be pro-Europe and anti-austerity. Therefore, Merkel will have to soften her pro-austerity stance to accommodate her new partners and strengthen her coalition for a third term. It will still take time for the new German government to form, but at least the uncertainty and risks associated with new German leadership are gone and the market can take comfort in the continuity afforded by the current regime. Italian politics once again found its way into the spotlight, making up for the lack of drama in Germany. Berlusconi and his party threatened to pull down the government, potentially derailing the nascent European recovery. Luckily, better sense prevailed and the crisis was averted when Berlusconi retracted his threat. A senate committee vote in favor of the expulsion of Berlusconi could very well be the end of a colorful era for Italian politics. How long the Italian government
* Data is that of a representative account from within the Composite.
GMO
Stock Selection
Stock selection beat the benchmark by 0.2 percentage points in the third quarter. Holdings in Continental Europe and Australia outperformed. Stock selection in Japan and the emerging markets was negative.* Stock selection in Continental Europe was positive as a mix of positions delivered. The holding in Socit Gnrale did well during the quarter because the French bank announced strong second quarter earnings and is now closer to meeting its 2015 ROE target of 10%. With the current cost-cutting program, the goal now looks achievable by management. We sold the name because the stock already reflects a lot of the good news and we believe the remaining upside is limited. We are finding better value in other companies in the sector. Veolia Environment, a French utility, benefited last quarter as its massive restructuring plan gained credibility among investors. With signs that leading indicators may be turning positive in Europe, the company should benefit because of its high leverage to recovering European waste and water volumes. We also completely sold this position, as we believe that the stock now fairly values the potential benefit of Veolias restructuring plan. Spains Atresmedia, a media company, was another strong performer this quarter as investors keep rerating this segment of the market. In the past five years, the Spanish broadcast TV players have consolidated and drastically cut costs. A duopoly now controls 90% of the TV advertising market and should be able to demonstrate some pricing power as soon as the economy recovers. A rerating of several industrial stocks helped push the Australian portfolio to outperform for the month of September. This was nothing more than value asserting itself, with little good news to speak of for Leighton Holdings, Toll Holdings, or Asciano, all of which outperformed the market. Indeed, the first is a global construction company with its business under threat from many angles, but this was reflected in the price. We have since sold the position. The latter two are logistics firms where subdued business conditions for several years have forced them to cut costs. Any upturn in volumes should lead to nice operating leverage coming through.
Just as Fed watching dominated the U.S., so Deutschland watching preoccupied Europe in the run-up to the federal election in the second half of September. As was widely anticipated, Angela Merkel scored a handsome electoral victory, but as mentioned above, she will have to do without the support of her current coalition partners, the Free Democrats, who failed to meet the 5% threshold to gain entry to parliament. Ms. Merkel now has to negotiate with the Greens and/or the SPD to form a new government. Investors appeared to welcome the endorsement of the chancellor who may hew to a less stringent form of austerity now that she will have a new political partner. Japan also saw the electoral endorsement of an incumbent with the triumph of the prime ministers party in the elections to Japans upper house, allowing the market to continue its enthusiasm for Abenomics. Economic data from China has been mixed, with continuing strength in housing but not so much in consumption. Australia has taken a hit from the fall-off in demand for its commodity exports. So far in 2013 equity markets have climbed the proverbial wall of worry with the alacrity of Spiderman. Returns have been exceptionally strong even as the taper caper has demonstrated that investors need the punch bowl close at hand, despite generally positive economic news and corporate earnings. In the U.S., we have the spectacle of debt negotiations between Congress and the president, which have added another level of uncertainty to the mix. It seems likely that a resolution will be reached and we are not about to second-guess this unpredictable process; instead we continue to focus on individual companies and their valuations. We still find many opportunities in Europe while the number available in Japan has diminished after the very strong run starting in late 2012. We are less sanguine about emerging markets as the likely tightening of U.S. monetary policy in the coming months will provide a headwind, just as the very easy policies after the financial crisis provided a tailwind.
GMO
GMO
September 30, 2013
MSCI EAFE Sector Performance Third Quarter YTD 2013
13.0% 6.7% 10.5% 12.7% 5.9% 14.2% 10.2% 14.9% 17.7% 9.5% 28.2% 13.0% 5.1% 17.2% 19.4% 18.6% 17.3% -0.2% 31.0% 12.1%
Sector
Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities
(weighted median)
(weighted median)
*Data is based on a representative account selected because it has the least number of restrictions and best represents the implementation of the strategy. This information is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation of the strategy that has preceded this report in the last 12 months or accompanies it. GIPS compliant presentations of composite performance are also available at www.gmo.com.
GMO
0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 5.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 16.5% 1.4% 4.8% 0.0% 1.1% 10.1% 18.0% 5.9% 0.0% 2.4% 0.3% 1.1% 23.3% 0.0% 0.4% 2.0% 3.6% 28.3% 21.6% 20.7% 14.9% 14.2% 8.7% 12.2% 10.8% 9.6% 9.9% 9.2% 9.1% 8.2% 4.9% 9.6% 7.5% 6.3% 4.6% 7.5% 8.9% 5.4% 3.4% -1.0%
Country Greece Finland Spain Italy Austria New Zealand Ireland France Sweden Netherlands Denmark Belgium Germany United Kingdom Australia MSCI EAFE Portugal Switzerland Norway Hong Kong Japan Singapore Israel Emerging Markets Cash
2013 Q3 MSCI EAFE Currency Return 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 7.8% 4.1% 4.1% 5.2% 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 6.7% 2.1% 3.7% 4.1% 4.6% 1.6% 0.0% 1.0% 1.1% 3.2%
MSCI EAFE Return in $US 33.6% 26.6% 25.7% 19.6% 18.9% 17.2% 16.8% 15.4% 15.2% 14.4% 13.7% 13.6% 12.7% 12.0% 11.9% 11.6% 10.7% 9.5% 9.1% 8.9% 6.7% 4.5% 2.2%
Performance data quoted represents past performance and is not predictive of future performance. Returns are shown after the deduction of management fees, transaction costs, and other expenses. The returns assume the reinvestment of dividends and other income. Fees are disclosed in Part II of GMOs Form ADV and are also available in each strategys compliant presentation. Composite performance is supplemental to the GIPS compliant presentation for the strategy that was made available on GMO's website in September of 2013. Performance is shown compared to the MSCI EAFE Index, a broad-based securities market index that measures large capitalization international stocks. Broad-based indices are unmanaged and are not subject to fees and expenses typically associated with managed accounts or investment funds. Investments cannot be made directly into an index. Information about the composite is as of the period-end noted above, subject to change without notice and not intended as investment advice. Source: MSCI. The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an as is basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the MSCI Parties) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. (www.mscibarra.com)
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