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Dear Delegates,

First of all, let me introduce myself. My name is Kurniawan Arif Wicaksono and I, here, am going to be your director of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Changes COP -19. It is a great honour for me to accompany all of the delegates for the three days of conferences in this E-MUN. I definitely cant wait to see your performances, your splendid skills of public speaking, debating and any other which obviously will bring the conferences in such an unforgettable experience. Hopefully, by what we are going to do through this E-MUN, it could be a step stone to build up our skill of diplomacy and give us a path to develop model united nations which will bring a great benefit for us and for this country in the future. A further explanation of myself, I am a student in University of Indonesia. I am studying at the faculty of Law and I have placed my interest in transnational law, especially for the public international law. Besides studying, I also love to get involved in many activities and organizations in campus. I am a member of Asian Law Students Association, Internal Law Moot Court Society, Resimen Mahasiswa of University of Indonesia and particularly I am a secretary general of Serambi (Senantiasa Ramah Bernuansa Islam), which is a religious organization in the Faculty of Law of University of Indonesia. This E-MUN is the first of my experiences in model united nations activities and I want to continue in such an activity for I have the same excitements and thrills with all of you participating in this competition. This year United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) will bring Anticipation to The Sinking of Island States in the Future (which formed by small states island and archipelagic states) due to the Effect of Global Warming as the topic area to be discussed in E-Model United Nations 2011 conference. By researching on this issue, I hope that it will give you a sensibility of what is going on around the globe as well as bring a strong desire to learn and join future model united nations conference at national and international level. The UNFCC team, have researched thoroughly and extensively on this issue, but there are many spaces left for new proposal of ideas to resolve this issue. There are many facts and theories that havent covered yet on the study guide, but may be it will be found while you research your country position. I look forward for a far-fetched and specific solution on the resolution and also great representation of countries stance from each of delegates. Please, dont hesitate to ask me anything that you mightnt understand either on the issue or its study guide. See you on the conference, delegates! Be prepared!

Best Regards,

Kurniawan Arif Wicaksono Director of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change COP - 19 ALSA 15th National English Competition E-Model United Nations 2011. kurniawan.arif@ui.ac.id, raninfurikawa@gmail.com, i_one.d_guardian@yahoo.co.id

Conference of the Parties 19 : Anticipation to The Sinking of Island States in the Future
Introduction Dear all delegates of the ALSA E-COMP 2011, On behalf of the excellent staffs that make up the E-Comp Model United Nations, I would like to officially welcome you to the United Nations Framework on Convention of Climate Change (UNFCCC). By joining this conference, you will have an outstanding educational experience as a delegate from your own country to deal with the most fascinating issue, the effect of global warming: anticipation to the sinking of Island States in the future. History of the Committee

In 1992, 194 countries joined an international treaty which is called the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to begin to consider what can be done to reduce global warming and to cope with whatever temperature increases are inevitable. The ultimate objective of the Convention is to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.2 On 11 December 1997, UNFCC was complemented by the Kyoto Protocol which has 192 Parties. The major distinction between the two, however, is that while the Convention encouraged industrialized countries to stabilize GHG emissions, the Protocol commits them to do so.3 Under
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http://www.igeo.pt/gdr/img/Prek/Prek_Fig%207b_unfccc.jpg http://unfccc.int/press/fact_sheets/items/4991.php http://unfccc.int/press/fact_sheets/items/4991.php

this treaty, 37 industrialised countries and the European Community have committed to reducing their emissions by an average of 5 percent by 2012 against 1990 levels. For this group of countries, reductions of 11% are projected for the first Kyoto commitment period from 2008 to 2012, provided policies and measures planned by these countries are put in place.4 Since the adoption of the Convention, Parties have continued to negotiate in order to agree on decisions and conclusions that will advance its implementation. They have done so first in the INC, and then, since the Conventions entry into force, in the Conference of the Parties (COP) and its subsidiary bodies, the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI). History and Discussion of the problems The world we live nowadays is almost in a very different condition from the past decades. We can easily notice how the temperature is getting hotter and hotter. The weather becomes difficult to be predicted. Even we can hardly believe to the weather forecast program since predicting weather seems to be impossible. We find the sun shines brightly in a clear blue sky, but an hour later hard rains just come from nowhere. The climates changes drastically in most of the nations around the globe. The period of each season is either become shorter or longer than usual. In a tropical country, the dry season becomes longer and its average temperature increase every year. When it comes to wet season, it only have short period of time but the rain becomes much harder. Those are only small things we face in our daily life; however, such a condition will definitely bring a big impact if it continuously happens. For an agricultural country, the unpredictable climates will obviously trouble the farmers to grow their seeds. In a long period of time, it will lead to another disaster such as starvation across the country due to lack of foods. Furthermore, since the temperature on the earth increase, the ice on the earth is melting day by day. As a result, the sea level increases. What the worst can we imagine than the sinking of islands regarding the increasing of sea level in all over the world? Unfortunately, this disaster which is threatening the people and the existence of island states is already happened. The cause of all above situations mentioned above is a phenomenon called global warming. Global warming is a process of increasing average temperature on the earths surface, sea and atmosphere. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that its because of the increasing concentration of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere which leads to this condition. When Carbon Monoxide (CO), which is mostly produced from any means of transportation and factory, comes to the ozone layer, it will produce CO2 by decomposition of chemical compound of ozone (O3). Through this process, the ozone layer gradually becomes thinner. The ozone layer can no longer reduce ultraviolet ray and ray of sunlight penetrating the atmosphere of the earth. As can be predicted, the temperature of the earth increase and this condition is being worsened by the concentration of CO2 which hold the ray back inside the earths atmosphere.5

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Ibid. This process is called the greenhouse effect.

Current Situation The years 2000 through 2009 are marked as the warmest ever in the history of the Earth based on data supplied by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) scientists.8 In that period of year, 2005 was actually the warmest year ever recorded. 2009 was also the second warmest temperature recorded since such records were kept initiating in 1880.9 Although 2008 was the coolest year recorded during the last decade and climate related results from this year tend to fly in the face of general global warming predictions and philosophies, the consensus remains that the effects of global warming are now manifest.

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The Keliing Curve of atmospheric CO2 concentrations measured at Mauna Loa Observatory http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Greenhouse_Effect_png http://globalwarming.com/2010/05/climate-change-headlines-from-2000-to-2009/ Ibid.

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Current evidence of global warming includes the widespread retreat of glaciers on 5 continents. For example:

The ice cap on Mount Kilimanjaro may be gone in 20 years. About 1/3 of Kilimanjaro's ice field has disappeared in the last 12 years and 82% of it has vanished since it was first mapped in 1912. Sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is thinning. Massive Antarctic ice sheets have collapsed into the sea with alarming rapidity.

As already said before, one of the effects of global warming is the raising of sea level. Since the temperature on the earth increase day by day, the ice in the arctic and Antarctica is melting. The sea level around the globe has increased up to 10-25 cm (4-10 inch) in the 20th century. According to the scientists of IPCC, a further increasing of sea level is about to happen up to 988 cm (4-35 inch) in the 21st century.

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NASA Earth Observatory Image of the Day: 2009 Ends Warmest Decade on Record http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=42392
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Bruce C. Douglas (1997). "Global Sea Rise: A Redetermination". Surveys in Geophysics 18: 279292. DOI:10.1023/A:1006544227856
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The effect of oceans rising up to 14 m has been illustrated online by British software engineer Alex Tingle. He has used National Aeronautics and Space Administration data and Google Earth technology:

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Due to the raising of sea level, a lot of islands have submerged below the sea surface. Here are some of the recent data along with its current conditions: 1. Lohachara, India. 10.000 people had lived there before the island sank. 2. Bedford Island, Kabasgadi, and Suparibhanga 6.000 families have been evacuated from those islands. 3. Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, US 13 islands have already gone. 4. Kiribati 3 rocks have sunk and for about 30 islands are sinking now. Ironically, 107.817 people have their own fate threathened. 5. Half of Bhola Island, Bangladesh, have a permanent flood where 500.000 people live there. 6. Tuvalu 12.000 people without drinkable water 7. Ghoramana, near India 2/3 area of the island sank in 2006 and 7.000 people had been relocated 8. Maldives it has 369.031 citizen and the president want to relocate its entire citizen 9. Marshall Islands archipelagos 60.000 people 10. Tonga116.921 people 11. Vanuatu211.971 people, some of them have been evacuated 12. Solomon Island archipelagos566.842 people

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Florida, USA http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=27.2839,-80.7275&z=10&m=14&t=1

Case Studies 1. Tuvalu Tuvalu comprises nine coral atolls between Australia and Hawaii. Their highest point is 5 meters (15 feet) above seal level. As sea level has risen, Tuvalu has experienced lowland flooding. Saltwater intrusion is adversely affecting drinking water and food production. Tuvalu's leaders predict that the nation will be submerged in 50 years. In March 2002, the country's prime minister appealed to Australia and New Zealand to provide homes for his people if his country is washed away, but the plight of this nation is being ignored.

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2. Vanuatu The archipelago, strung across two million square miles of the Pacific, is home to 92,500 people. Most of them live on the densely populated main atoll, called Tarawa, a U-shaped chain of islets that are surrounding a central lagoon. The beaches on Tarawa, an island nation which is pancake-flat and barely 500 yards wide, are so eroded that sand has been imported from Australia. Dozens of families have been forced to move, dismantling their wooden huts piece by piece and reassembling them further back from the water. Now the population is being squeezed into an ever narrower strip of land between the lagoon and the Pacific.

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:LocationTuvalu.png http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bild:Vanuatu-Pos.png

The effects of climate change and rising sea levels can be seen on many islands in Vanuatu. In 1993, Australian scientists set up the Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project. They recorded the sea level at 12 points in the South Pacific and detected a rise of, on average, 6mm per year, or 7.8cm (3.1 inches) in total. Vanuatu's Meteorological Department monitors the number of storms that have hit the nation since 1941. In the Forties, says the department's head, Jotham Napat, the number in their records was five, but in the past few years, the average has been 15. 3. Maldives The country is located south of India's Lakshadweep islands, and about 435 miles southwest of Sri Lanka. Twenty-six coralline are spread across the top of an undersea volcanic ridge for 960 kilometers, running from north to south. Some of the larger atolls are 50 kilometers long and 30 km wide. The 1,190 islands that make up the rest of the country are no larger than 8 kilometers.15

The Maldives, which is only 8 feet above sea level at its highest point, are comprised of nearby 1200 islands and atolls in the Indian Ocean. As global warming causes the polar ice caps melt and sea levels to rise, the Maldives' entire existence is in jeopardy. Along with rising sea levels, increased beach erosion, more powerful storms, higher storm surges, and threats to biodiversity are among the major threatens to the Maldives due to climate change over the coming decades.16 Rising sea levels also threaten the country's tourism-dependent economy. Tourism accounts for 28 percent of the country's GDP and for more than 60 percent of the Maldives' foreign exchange. The vast majority of government revenue (approximately 90 percent) comes from import duties and tourism-related taxes.17
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"Waiving or Drowning," The Economist, December 19, 2006, Vol. 381, Iss. 8509, p. 97. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/620.htm https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/mv.html

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Furthermore, rising ocean levels threaten the entire existence of the Maldives. In turn, the ocean threatens the habitat of every human, plant, and land animal in the country. Humans could be easily relocated to other neighboring countries, but preventing bio-diversity and species loss would be difficult. Cataloging each animal and plant in the country would be costly and time-consuming. Furthermore, introducing those plants and animals to a new ecosystem could also be problematic and upset the natural balance of that ecosystem. The newlyintroduced plants and animals could become invasive or the domestic plants and animals could eradicate those "rescued" from the sinking Maldives. Climate Change and rising ocean levels is an issue that will affect the entire world. At the same time, the dispute has the potential to become a multilateral issue. As the rising ocean levels threaten the Maldives, the countrys residents will be forced to move to other countries, such as India or Sri Lanka. Any conflict within the Maldives could be transferred to these countries. Additionally, it is possible that the Maldives would seek to be compensated by polluting countries for the loss of their islands. However it is unclear whether the Maldives would seek new sovereign territory elsewhere. Additionally, it is unclear whether the Maldives would seek that territory in neighboring countries, or elsewhere, such as in countries that contributed to the climate change in the first place, such as the United States or China. Past International Actions To overcome this terrible form of nature, Parties of the UNFCCC launched a new round of negotiations at COP 1 which took place in Berlin, on March until April 1995 to strengthen the commitments of Annex I Parties. These negotiations resulted in the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol at COP 3 in Kyoto, December 1997. At COP 4 (Buenos Aires, November 1998), Parties adopted the so-called "Buenos Aires Plan of Action", setting out a programme of work both to advance the implementation of the Convention and to flesh out the operational details of the Kyoto Protocol. This programme of work was conducted in the subsidiary bodies and at COP 5 (Bonn, October/November 1999), with a deadline of COP 6 (The Hague, November 2000). At COP 6 part II (Bonn, July 2001), Parties finally succeeded in adopting the Bonn Agreements on the Implementation of the Buenos Aires Plan of Action, registering political agreement on key issues under the Buenos Aires Plan of Action. Up until now, UNFCCC has been continuing the COP agenda to face the threat of global warming and climate changes. It is also noted that UNFCCC has resulted not less than 18 documents and 15 decisions up to the present. The documents are generally discussed about the protections of global climate for present and future generations; information on the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol; physical and socioeconomic trends in climate-related risks and extreme events; analysis of possible means to reach emission reduction targets and of relevant methodological issues; information on global warming potentials; and cooperation with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In order to implement the content of those documents, the 15 decisions made by UNFCC are mainly talking about the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCC; Scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change, and scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of mitigation; guidance to an entity entrusted with the operation of the financial mechanism of the Convention for the operation of

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the Special Climate Change Fund; and five-year programme of work of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. Proposed Solutions The effect of global warming resulting the rise of sea levels is not only becomes a problem for Island States or archipelagic States. Although it is clear that Island States and archipelagic States pose more danger regarding to the existences of their very nations, the other states obviously cant pretend to not share the problems. Global Warming is one of the most fundamental challenges ever to confront humanity.18 As can be seen on the impacts of global warming which are mentioned above, the word global on global warming represents global threat to all nations around the globe. Anticipation to the drowning of island states and archipelagic states must become the first priority in the near future. However, it is also reminded that eradicating global warming needs more efforts of many years. Thats why the causes of global warming are matters to be dealt with. Stringent emission reductions are required to keep global temperature increases and corresponding climate change impacts as low as possible.19 This problem is complex and multi-faceted; it involves social, political, and economic factors. I encourage you to research a variety of solution ideas and present them to the committee. Please do not limit yourself to those presented above. Bloc Positions Western Bloc This western bloc, which consists of most European countries including USA and Canada, is an important part to deal with the problems. They have the scientists and technologies to get the latest research on impact of global warming. Even some of the countries have the ability to build artificial islands, reclamation of their beach, etc. Asian and Pacific Bloc The Asian and Pacific Bloc is currently dealing with the problem of anticipation of sinking island due to the rising of sea level caused by global warming. Some other states have to be burdened by the threatened island states since its people migrate to any near country. Ironically, this bloc serves the smallest role to the cause of global warming in term of carbon monoxide emission as one of the cause of global warming.

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http://unfccc.int/press/fact_sheets/items/4991.php Ibid.

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QARMAS (Question a Resolution Must Answer) 1. If your country is in danger of losing its territory due to the problem discussed in this conference, what are the possible solutions to maintain the existence of your country? What are the most essential needs of the island states countries to prevent the sinking of their territorry or to reduce the loss when their island have been sunk ? 2. If your country has the technologies to help any states facing the danger of sinking of their island(s), how would your country give assistance to them? 3. What are the impacts of sinking island(s) regarding their borders, their territories of one country to the other, the citizenship of their people, their legal system and the impact in economy, also in the destination countries of the refugee from the sinking island states? If the arrival of these refugees in their destination countries will result in a conflict due to the inability of state to accomodate these refugees, how can you solve such a case to be happened or when it is already happened ? 4. What are the best technologies which can be applied to solve this problem ? Does your country have that technology ? 5. Who has the access to use any natural resources from the sinking island(s)? 6. What are the most effective and efficient ways to reduce global warming process and all of its impacts? What are the most possible way to reduce, to prevent or even to eliminate the possibility of the single event of global warming to be happened, such as the melting of West Antartic Iceland Sheet and Greenland ? Suggestion for Further Research To help you in conducting your research, we really encourage you to open some website related to the effect of global warming: anticipation to the sinking of island states in the future al as we provided below and dont forget to research your countrys stance to global warming and its view on the sinking of small island states : http://globalwarming.com/2010/05/climate-change-headlines-from-2000-to-2009/ http://unfccc.int/ http://www.oceana.org/climate/impacts/rising-seas/ http://www.nwf.org/sealevelrise/chesapeake.cfm http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/05/03/asia/pacific.php http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnB362707.html

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