VSRD International Journal of Business and Management Research, Vol. 3 No.

8August 2013 e-ISSN : 2231-248X, p-ISSN : 2319-2194 VSRD International Journals : www.vsrdjournals.com

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RESEARCH ARTICLE

INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY : A LIFE CYCLE

1
1,2 1

Assistant Professor, Department of Business Administration, Pranveer Singh Institute of Technology,Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh, INDIA. 2 PSIT College of Engineering, Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh, INDIA. *Corresponding Author :durgeshagnihotri@gmail.com

Durgesh Agnihotri* and 2Pallavi Chaturvedi

ABSTRACT
Indian automobile industry is currently facing an unpredictable slowdown in demand for light motor vehicles. 2-3 years back story was totally different. Everyone was expecting India to be one of the biggest emerging markets for automobile sector. Even few experts declared that India would be the biggest automobile market by 2020. But after seeing the current scenario, it looks impossible. Its been more than hundred years since people in India using cars. But boom in industry took place when maruti came to India in 80s. But real growth took place after globalization when most of the automobile giants came to India & started their operations. This thing kept on increasing as disposable income & standard of living of middle class started increasing. Along with that Indian government liberalization measures such as reduction in import tariff, banking liberalization, reduction in taxation helped a lot in automobile sectors growth. All this went well till 2009-10. In this particular time period (2000-2010) automobile sector grew like anything. But since last 2-3 years automobile sector has lost its continuous growth. As poor government policies, hike in petrol prices, emerging second hand car market have caused major problems for automobile industry. Very few automobile companies are performing up to expectations & rests are going down rapidly. Keywords :Liberalization, Globalization, Slowdown, Emerging.

INTRODUCTION The very first car introduced to Indian road in 1897.A resident of Calcutta brought that car to India. The next year, there were four cars in Bombay, one of them owned by Jamshedji Tata and the other three also by Parsis. That same year, the first pneumatic tyres arrived in Bombay, with Dunlop opening an office in the city. Madras, it would appear, lagged behind, though it is related that a car was seen on Mount Road on a brief outing in 1894. If that unconfirmed appearance is ignored, the first recorded date of a car being in regular use in Madras is 1901. The car was owned by A J Yorke, a director of Parry & Co. He drove it daily from Bens Gardens, Adyar, to Parrys in Black Town. The Souths first registered car, MC-1, belonged to Francis Spring, at that time Secretary of the Madras Railway Board and, in 1904, to become the Chairman of the Madras Port Trust and father of the Madras Harbor. The first Indian-owned car in Madras, MC3, was building contractor T NamberumalChettys. In 1903, Samuel John Green of Simpson & Co, Madras, built Indias first steam car and caused a sensation on the roads of the city. The Madras Mail hailed its appearance as the beginning of a new industry for Madras. Two years later, Simpsons built the first steam bus. It ran between Bezwada (Vijayawada) and Masulipatam (Machilipatnam) in what was possibly the first motor bus service in the country. Till 1930, cars were imported directly from foreign market, but very less in numbers. In 1928, General Motors India Ltd commenced assembling trucks and cars in its factory in Bombay, the first car assembled in India rolling off the assembly line on December 4th. Two years later, Ford Motor Co of India Ltd

commenced assembly of automobiles in Madras, and the next year in Bombay and Calcutta. And in 1936, Addison & Co Ltd commenced assembly of cars and trucks in Madras. We can divide the evolution of Indian automobile industry in three different phases: Phase Main Features Phase:1 Closed market 1940-1983 Growth rate was very slow due to limitation to domestic supply. Less innovations Number of companies: 5 Phase:2 Joint venture between Indian government & 1983-1993 Suzuki Japan to create MarutiUdyog Ltd. Number of companies: 6 Phase:3 Industry delicensed in 1993 1993- till OEMS(Original Equipment Manufacturers) today started assembly in India Imports allowed from April 2001 Number of companies: more than 40

Phase1 :In 1940s the Indian automotive industry was at a

Growth rate of production of vehicles in India (1950-2010)

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very emerging stage. A developing automotive industry emerges in India. In the initial years after independence Indian automobile industry was plagued by unfavorable government policies. All it had to offer in the passenger car segment was a 1940s Morris model called the Ambassador. . Mahindra & Mahindra was established a trading company and started the assembling of jeep-cj-3A utility vehicle. Hindustan Motors Ltd, Calcutta, and Premier Automobiles Ltd, Bombay, were established in 1942 and 1944 respectively to progressively manufacture complete automobiles. Hindustan Motors, a Birla group company, began manufacturing operations in 1948 by assembling Morris Oxford cars and Bedford trucks, gradually indigenizing the components. In 1957, the Morris Oxford, substantially indigenized, was re-introduced as the Hindustan Ambassador. Premier Automobiles Ltd (PAL) was promoted by WalchandHirachand, in collaboration with the Chrysler Corporation of the US. In March 1947, the company began assembling Chrysler products. Indigestion started in 1949 with the manufacture of radiators, mufflers, springs, propeller shafts, shock absorbers, etc. In 1950 PAL entered into collaboration with Fiat, SpA of Italy and started assembly of Fiat 1100 cars. In 1953, following the Tariff Commission report, the Government of India granted protection to the automobile industry, thus enabling Premier Automobiles to step up its manufacturing program with full vigour and, in 1954, the first Indian-made Fiat 1100 cars rolled out. Even after these innovations growth rate was not so rapid. Government of India & private sector jointly tried so hard to create an automobile manufacturing industry but the growth was very slow till 1960s. The major reason for slow growth was nationalization and license raj. People at that time were against any kind of joint venture or strategic alliance & big traders in India were not in favor of any foreign company to starts its operation in India. This caused problems to Indian private sector & growth rate became very slow. Phase 2 :Before this phase everyone had a mindset that car is a luxury & it is not affordable for middle class people. But in early 1980s Suzuki was allowed to invest in Indian market ultimately initiated the establishment of automobile industry in India. Maruti Suzuki ltd. formally known as marutiudyog ltd is a subsidiary of Japanese automobile manufacturer Suzuki. As of at the end of the year 2012, it had a market share of 37% of Indian passenger car market. Marutiudyog ltd. was established in February 1981 and its production started in 1983 with maruti 800. At that point of time maruti has no competition as such. Very few firms were there at that time to compete with maruti. Those were Hindustan ambassador & premier padmini (special reference to passenger segment).even these were also very old and outdated ones. People were looking for change, income was in increasing phase. Even middle class people wanted luxury &maruti 800 full filled their requirement.

MUL gave them a small family car. After that maruti came up with maruti Omni, gypsy &maruti 1000. Since 1983 to next ten years marutiudyog ltd. ruled the Indian passenger car market. This was a golden decade for marutiudyog ltd. along with Indian automobile industry, but real revolution was yet to come. Phase3 :Thisphase brought real revolution in Indian automobile industry. Till 1991 people had limited options to purchase a car. But in 1993 license raj was removed. Now market was free for new entrants. This gave a real opportunity to Indian automobile industry. In 1995 Daewoo merged with DCM (formerly merged with Toyota) & merged company now known as DCM-Daewoo. Company launched its f car cielo in Indian market in 1996. More than 20 000 Ceilo cars have been sold by DCM Daewoo through their appointed dealers all over the country a large majority of which was in Delhi and neighboring states. In May 1996 Hyundai motor India ltd. was formed by Hyundai motor company, South Korea. When Hyundai Motors Company entered the Indian market in 1996, the Hyundai brand name was completely unknown throughout India. At time only few major players were there as MUL, HAM, M&M, Daewoo. Ford & Honda were also in the market but these were under the phase of production. In 1997 MarutiUdyog Ltd launched the upgraded version of the 800 cc on September 12 visitors at the ongoing 57th Frankfurt Motor Show were admiring the all-new Daewoo D'Arts. In 1997 Daewoo launched its small car called Matiz in Seoul. The car was displayed at the fourth Auto Expo at PragatiMaidan in New Delhi in January and sales of the right-hand version in India begun in October. Hyundai motors India ltd. launched its first car Santro in September 1998. This was the time when revolution started in Indian auto mobile Industry. The monthly sales of the Santro (from October 98 to August '99 are given below) Month Unit October 1998 1123 November 1998 3444 December 1998 3881 January 1999 2753 February 1999 2157 March 1999 4290 April 1999 3519 May 1999 4519 June 1999 4634 July 1999 4949 August 1999 7002 Total 42,283 Hyundai Santro has captured 30%of the market share in the small car segment and10% in the overall auto industry. The cumulative sales of the Hyundai Santro (Oct '98-Aug

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'99)are 42,283 units. Santro showed other car makers that a company from outside can grab a market in a very short span of time. Santro&Matiz gave real tough competition to Maruti. Due to heavy sale of santro, HMIL became the second largest automobile manufacturer in India. By the end of year 2001 most of the companies started their operations in India. Government of India allowed import since April 2001. This gave advantages to a lot of companies to import car items in India & assemble them. Thorough this big German giants like Mercedes, BMW, Audi started their assembly plants in India. Table below is representing growth rate of passenger vehicles in last one decade(Domestic): Year Number of Vehicle % Growth Rate 2003-04 9,00,752 2004-05 10,61,502 17.84% 2005-06 11,43,076 7.68% 2006-07 13,79,979 20.72% 2007-08 15,49,882 12.31% 2008-09 15,52,703 0.18% 2009-10 19,51,333 25.67% 2010-11 25,01,542 28.20% 2011-12 26,18,072 4.6% 2012-13 26,28, 996 0.4% Source: SIAM MOTIVATION OF THE STUDY It was November 2012 when automobile companies saw a major setback in their car sales. It raised few questions in manufacturers mind but everyone was expecting this scenario to be short term. But its been more than seven months since the downfall started & it is getting worse by time. Every car manufacturer company is trying to resolve this problem but most of them are unable to do that excluding very few automobile manufacturers (Renault, Maruti). So this study has major focus on how & why this slowdown in car sales started with most of the automobile companies. CRITICAL REVIEW OF LITERATURE According to SIAM (Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers), passenger car sales decline to 1.89 million units in 2012-13 from 2.03 million a year. According to S.Shandilya, president of SIAM, whatever has happened is due to larger problems in economy. There have been policy changes and we are hopeful that they will be executed in time. According to Velury Vijay Bhasker, The growth of Indian Auto Component Industry in the little over first decade of the 21st Century is phenomenal. The Industry transformed gradually in stages from serving just Indian market majority to replacement market - to global OEMs and replacement market. The Auto Component Manufacturers Association (ACMA) has significance for global

recognition and has an impact on GDP. It has a supporting role in the growth of Indian Automobile Sector and in future as per Automotive Plan 2006-16, Vision 2020:21 and Automotive Sector five year plan (2012 17) as projected by Department of Heavy Industry, Ministry of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises. The growth of this sub sector has a bearing on the developments and growth of Indian Automobile Industry rather it is dependent on Automobile Industry growth Locally and worldwide expanding and aftermarket. This research paper highlights the growth of Indian Auto Component Industry relating with Investments and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Equity inflows, drawing comparison with the developments and growth of Indian Automobile Industry, more specifically to Two Wheelers, Passenger Cars and Commercial Vehicle Domestic Sales and Export earnings We expect a slight improvement in passenger car sales. But this may change if some of our assumptions dont come true. The current slowdown will continue for the next six months, added PawanGoenka, president (automotive) at Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd. RakeshSrivastava, senior vice-president (sales and marketing) at Hyundai Motor India is hoping for a good monsoon that would create some demand ahead of the festive season. In the current macroeconomic situation, we do not expect to grow at more than 5% this fiscal. On 11 April 2013, Honda Siel India Ltdlaunched its first diesel car in India, Amaze. In July, Ford India Pvt. Ltd is expected to launch a compact SUV; the EcoSport .The new models are likely to be priced at Rs.5-7.5 lakh and Rs.6-10 lakh, respectively. According to Dr. vinod Gupta, The automotive Industry in India is now working in terms of the dynamics of an open market. Many joint ventures have been set up in India with foreign collaboration. India ranks just behind China with the worlds second largest population at over 1 billion people. Less than 1 percent of the population currently owns automobiles, which is a much smaller proportion than the rest of the Southeast Asia region. India also has one of the fastest growing economies, and many U.S. companies view India as a potentially lucrative market. It is expected that the automotive industry will play an important role in helping the economy to continue this growth. According to Vishnu Mathur, director general of SIAM,This is the longest stretch of consecutive decline in car sales we have witnessed. Even in the 2008-09 down turn there were no such prolonged periods of fall. These are worrying times for the automobile industry and high inflation and interest rates, low consumer sentiments and insecurity over jobs are affecting demand for cars. He also added that its also possible that they eat into the share of existing models rather than attracting new customers, which means more options may create more confusion amongst customers & that might create problems for existing car models.

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According to R.C. Bhargava, chairman of market leader Maruti Suzuki, "The industry, like the rest of the economy, has slowed down very substantially. Everything has slowed down by two to three years," Bhargava said. "Everybody has to consolidate their operations, look how to manage with less, do more with less ... This recessionary period will force people to be more efficient." RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Data for this study has been derived from the published sources and various websites and national dailies. Sample Size & Selection Process: In our paper we have chosen major car manufactures as Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, Tata Motors, Ford India, Mahindra, Renault, Toyota, Honda, General motors, Nissan, Volkswagen, Skoda, Hindustan Motors, fiat. We would be analyzing these companies on the basis of market share of these companies, growth scenario of these companies and market accessibility of these companies along with slowdown rate of these companies. We have also focused on growth scenario of Indian automobile industry in last century & we have started our research from the time when Indians saw first car on road. Data Analysis: Phase 1 was introductory. Demand was very less during that period. Only few rich families were having cars. So there was not much scope for demand and supply analysis for this phase. Demand & supply scenario during phase 2 & phase 3: The demand for cars in the past was supply driven as demand did not match supply. This led to high premiumand long waiting periods for the cars. But change in government policies coupled with aggressive capacityadditions and up gradation of models by MUL in the early nineties led to increase in supply and subsequentlyreduced the waiting periods for economy cars. The demand for cars was suppressed by various supply constraints. The demand for cars increased from 15,714in FY60 to 30,989 in FY80 at a CAGR of only 3.5%. The entry of MarutiUdyog Ltd (GOI-Suzuki JV) in 1983with a "peoples" car and a more favorable policy framework resulted in a CAGR of 18.6% in car sales fromFY81-FY90. After witnessing a downturn from FY90 to FY93, car sales bounced back to register 17% growth rate till FY97.Since then, the economy slumped into recession and this affected the growth of the automobile industry as awhole. As a result car sales remained almost stagnant in the period between FY97 and FY99. CAGR recordedduring the FY94FY99 period was 14.4%, reaching sales of 409,624 cars in FY99. However, during FY2000,with the revival of economy, the segment went great guns posting a sales growth of 56%yoy. The table below indicates the past sales trend for cars : Fy9 Fy9 Fy9 Fy9 Fy9 Fy9 Fy2 Cars 4 5 6 7 8 9 000

Volu me Grow th%

209, 203 27.0

264, 822 27.0

345 486 30.0

410 992 19.0

417, 736 2.0

409 624 -2.0

6388 15 55.8

Source: SIAM Supply :The supply of cars in Indian industry till 1991 was dependent upon the production capacity of individualplayers. The production of cars has increased from 42,475 units to 181,420 units from 1981 to 1991 respectively. The growth in production of cars has varied in the last three decades from just 1% in 1970-80 to 21% in 1980-90and above 15% in 1991- 96. The table below gives the production numbers of passenger cars in the past fewyears. Fy9 Fy9 Fy9 Fy9 Fy9 Fy9 Fy20 Cars 4 5 6 7 8 9 00 Volu 207 264 348 407 401 390 5772 me 658 468 146 539 002 355 43 Growt 27.2 27.4 31.6 17.1 1.6 2.7 32.4 h% Source: SIAM (excludes the figures related to Daewoo and Honda Siel) The major increase in production of cars in the 80's was due to the entry of MUL in 1983, which helped increasecar production by 20,000 to 30,000 cars per annum till the early nineties. With the entry of MUL, the face of the passenger car industry changed forever. Existing producers who hadoperated in a protected, high margin environment faced the prospect of not just diminishing market share, but ashift in focus from producing vehicles to S them. But MUL made use of the opportunity open to itstechnologically superior product and increased its capacity from 100,000 cars in FY90 to 240,000 cars in FY96and 350,000 cars in FY98. This has helped in increasing the number of models available to the customer from 8 to 30 and hence provided awide choice to him. This has also helped in reducing the average waiting period and premium on cars, whichwere a part and parcel of car cost in the eighties. Market share as on May, 2001: The market shares of leading players and recent sales figures are as given below: Firm Market Share MarutiUdyog Limited 52.4% Hyundai India Motor Limited 14.4% Telco 9.9% Daewoo Motors 11.5% Hindustan Motors 3.9% Ind Auto 2.1% Honda Siel 1.7% Others 4.1% Current Scenario :Indian automobile sector was on boom since last decade. But slowly conditions are changing. Since last five months there is regular downfall in the sales of

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passenger cars. If we compare the sales of Feb. 2012 & Feb 2013 then we can see the major downfall in automobile industry. Company Feb 2013 Feb 2012 Growth Rate Maruti Suzuki 97,955 107653 -9% Hyundai 34002 36805 -7.6% Tata Motors 10613 40961 -74.9% Mahindra 23421 20573 13.8% Ford 4490 8035 -44.1% General Motors 7106 8901 -20.2% Toyota 12756 16659 -23.4% Renault 6723 673 898.9% Honda 6510 8856 -26.5% This comparison shows the current scenario of automobile industry. Most of the companies are facing major downfall. Even few amongst them dropped by more than 50%. This is not the scenario for February 2013 only, its the same since November 2012. So its been 5 continuous months since growth rate is going down rapidly.

OUT COMES OF THE STUDY Reasons for Downfall in Automobile Industry: Indian automobile industry started very slowly, then it picked up pace & suddenly it became one of the most promising car market & after such scenario now Indian automobile industry is facing major downfall in one decade since last five months.

This graph is divided in five segments. All four segments are showing rapid growth rate, but only last segment is showing downfall in growth rate. There are few reasons for this downfall in automobile industry: Hike in fuel prices Economic slowdown& Political uncertainty High interest rate on car loans Shift towards diesel vehicles Emerging secondhand car market Hike in fuel Prices:Since last decade, hike in fuel prices is the most flammable issue.

Source: Team- BHP Sales chart of different car manufacturers since December 2011 to December 2012 Market share analysis of 14 cars manufactures on the basis of sales in the month of December 2012: Manufacturers Market Share Maruti 42.78% Hyundai 13.92% Mahindra 11.87% Tata 7.39% Toyota 6.29% Chevrolet 3.67% Ford 3.40% Renault 3.09% Volkswagen 2.33% Honda 2.21% Skoda 1.34% Nissan 1.26% HM- Mitsubishi 0.25% Fiat 0.19% Grand Total 100 *Luxury segment as Audi, BMW, Mercedes are not added in this analysis

Source: MyPetrolPrice.com Price hike in petrol in Delhi since 2002: Hike in price of petrol has decreased the sales of petrol cars & people are switching to diesel & CNG variants. But due higher price of diesel cars & very limited options in CNG variant customers are pulling their hands back & thinking twice or thrice before buying a car. So this surely is decreasing the growth rate of passenger cars. Economic Slowdown &Political Uncertainty: The current political ambiguity putting a question mark over economic growth, the auto industry will continue to face tough times

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in terms of sales in the next fiscal. Political situation will remain the same. How this will help in assessment and implementation is still a question mark. Economic growth needs political stability. The slowdown in the economy is affecting demand of cars and it will surely affect growth rate of automobile industry. Car sales can only increase when people have more income, people must have the money to run the car. That can happen only when there is economic growth," economic slowdown is the problem, but we cannot blame it completely. Government also needs to take the responsibility for economic growth. Deregulating the diesel prices also caused decrease by 5% in sales of diesel cars.Only tough decisions will not help, government needs to plan proper policies to resolve this problem. UPA government in its first tenure increased the salaries of government employees and because of that there was a rapid growth in demand & sales. Even before this slowdown and uncertainty, the automobile manufacturing sector was in a shake & I think it will remain the same or may get worse in the near future with ruling alliance is on the edge of crumple. Higher Interest Rate on Car Loan:Due to higher interest rate on car loans entry level & mid segment cars are hit very badly. Because car prices are gone up by 12-15% .Considering 85 % of car purchases in India are financed, customers have reacted negatively. Interest rates are highest we have seen in the last decade. This has affected customer affordability as many of them also have home loans and will face a combined impact of slowdown and interest rates. Shift towards Diesel Vehicles:Another development that is affecting sales numbers is shift towards diesel vehicles. Over the last 1-2 years or so, a major number of car buyers in India have shifted trustworthiness and are actively looking at the diesel variant. The obvious reason: the growing inequality between petrol and diesel prices and the fact that diesel prices have not risen as quickly as petrol., This has led to a capacity issue in the Indian passenger car sector as the market has moved so rapidly to diesel. No one expected such a shift. Most of the capacity of Indian car market is petrol & around 75% of new launches are in petrol although companies are now increasing the diesel cars production. You will get a petrol variant of maruti swift instantly, but for the diesel variant you may have to wait for 3-4 week minimum. So it shows that people are looking for diesel options, but capacity is low in terms of production. That is forcing down the customers to wait & that gap is causing in downfall of sales. Even a core petrol vehicle maker Honda Siel has come up with first diesel variant AMAZE with a claim of 25.8 km/lit in Indian car market & it is doing really good in the market. As per analysis AMAZE is overbooked & customers are eagerly ready to wait for few months to buy this car. That might be a big revolution for HONDA Siel, but definitely it will slow down the sale of other petrol variants of different

automobile companies. Emerging Secondhand Car Market: Consumers may not be thinking of buying new cars anymore but their desire for second hand cars is getting higher & higher. Part of this growth comes at the cost of new cars, as customers tend to veer towards used cars whenever there is a squeeze in liquidity due to high interest rates. The organized sector has been offering certified used vehicles at competitive rates, along with finance and insurance options, warranties and service guarantees, and the tide is expected to gradually turn into the favor of this sector. But as this sector is grooming the other sector is falling down. Currently the used car segment in India is as big as the new car segment. As organized players flourish and expand, this will increase to maybe double or more the size of new cars. That will cause problem to the new car segment. CONCLUSION There has been an unexpected squirt in the Indian Automobile Industry, especially since last three years when the industry posted twofold digits growth and forced global car makers towards the Indian market. Since that time, there have been some big bets on the Indian Automotive Scenario a decade hence. Government is planning to complete the Automotive Mission Plan (AMP) 2016 but we have seen major global slowdown in the current financial year, India has posted the lowest ever growth since last 7-8 months when compared to previous figures. So to maintain the rapid growth rate government needs to take few initiatives. Government must try to resolve all the factors which are affecting the growth rate of automobile industry. The issues, if controlled well by the Government, the Indian Automobile Industry will accomplish the said AMP 2016 and will be the third largest market by 2020 and will be the worlds largest market by 2050. If not, this scenario will continue further or may become worse. BIBLIOGRAPHY
http://www.stockmusings.com/indian-car-sales-figures-february2013/ http://www.theautomotiveindia.com/forums/nostalgic-era/1295indian-auto-industry-history-timeline.html http://www.mypetrolprice.com/petrol-price-chart.aspx http://www.autocarindia.com/News/323728,new-cars-for-2013--updated.aspx http://www.zigwheels.com/auto-insights www.teambhp.com http://www.siamindia.com/scripts/domestic-sales-trend.aspx http://reviews.in.88db.com/index.php/automobiles/news/16900automobile-production-in-india-statistics http://www.livemint.com/Industry/ZV3DwB5imWImeOIbE8Wgi M/Car-sales-fall-7-in-FY13-first-drop-in-a-decade-Siam.html http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/04/10/india-autos-sales-tatamotors-maruti-for-idINDEE9380FI20130410

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