Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Sixth Edition
Steven Nahmias
Santa Clara University
Me Graw Hill
Boston Burr Ridge, IL Dubuque, IA Madison, Wl New York San Francisco St. Louis Bangkok Bogota Caracas Kuala Lumpur Lisbon London Madrid Mexico City Milan Montreal New Delhi Santiago Seoul Singapore Sydney Taipei Toronto
Contents
About the Author xv Preface xvi Introduction xvii
Chapter 1
1.11 Capacity Growth Planning: A Long-Term Strategic Problem 38
Economies of Scale and Economies of Scope 38 Make or Buy: A Prototype Capacity Expansion Problem 39 Dynamic Capacity Expansion Policy 40 Issues in Plant Location 44 Problems for Section 1.11 46
1.12 Summary 47
Additional Problems for Chapter 1 48
Chapter 2 Forecasting
52
Chapter Overview 52 2.1 The Time Horizon in Forecasting 55 2.2 Characteristics of Forecasts 56 2.3 Subjective Forecasting Methods 56 2.4 Objective Forecasting Methods 57
Causal Models 57 Time Series Methods 58 Snapshot Application: Advanced Forecasting, Inc., Serves the Semiconductor Industry 59 Problems for Sections 2.12.4 59
2.5 2.6
2.7
2.8
viii Contents
Methods for Seasonal Series 79 Seasonal Factors for Stationary Series 79 Seasonal Decomposition Using Moving Averages 81 Problems for Section 2.9 83 Winters s Methodfor Seasonal Problems 84 More Problems for Section 2.9 89 2.10 Box-Jenkins Models 89 Estimating the Autocorrelation Function 90 The Autoregressive Process 93 The Moving-Average Process 94 Mixtures: ARMA Models 96 ARIMA Models 96 Using ARIMA Models for Forecasting 98 Summary of the Steps Requiredfor Building ARIMA Models 99 Case Study: Using Box-Jenkins Methodology to Predict Monthly International Airline Passenger Totals 100 Snapshot Application: A Simple ARIMA Model Predicts the Performance of the U.S. Economy 104 Box-Jenkins ModelingA Critique 104 Problems for Section 2.10 104 2.11 Practical Considerations 105 Model Identification and Monitoring 105 Simple versus Complex Time Series Methods 106 2.12 Overview of Advanced Topics in Forecasting 107 Simulation as a Forecasting Tool 107 Forecasting Demand in the Presence of Lost Sales 108 2.d.3 Linking Forecasting and Inventory Management 110 Snapshot Application: Predicting Economic Recessions 111 2.14 Historical Notes and Additional Topics 112 2.15 Summary 113 Additional Problems on Forecasting 113 Appendix 2-A Forecast Errors for Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing 118 Appendix 2-B Derivation of the Equations for the Slope and Intercept for Regression Analysis 120 Appendix 2-C Glossary of Notation for Chapter 2 122 Bibliography 122
2.9
124
Chapter Overview 124 3.1 Aggregate Units of Production 127 3.2 Overview of the Aggregate Planning Problem 128 3.3 Costs in Aggregate Planning 130 Problems for Sections 3.1-3.3 132 3.4 A Prototype Problem 133 Evaluation of a Chase Strategy (Zero Inventory Plan) 135 Evaluation of the Constant Workforce Plan 136 Mixed Strategies and Additional Constraints 138 Problems for Section 3.4 139 3.5 Solution of Aggregate Planning Problems by Linear Programming 141 Cost Parameters and Given Information 141 Problem Variables 142 Problem Constraints 142 Rounding the Variables 143 Extensions 144 Other Solution Methods 146 3.6 Solving Aggregate Planning Problems by Linear Programming: An Example 147 Problems for Sections 3.5 and 3.6 149 3.7 The Linear Decision Rule 152 3.8 Modeling Management Behavior 153 Problems for Sections 3.7 and 3.8 155 3.9 Disaggregating Aggregate Plans 155 Snapshot Application: Welch's Uses Aggregate Plann ingfor Production Scheduling 157 Problems for Section 3.9 158 3.10 Production Planning on a Global Scale 158 3.11 Practical Considerations 159 3.12 Historical Notes 160 3.13 Summary 161 Additional Problems on Aggregate Planning 162 Appendix 3-A Glossary of Notation for Chapter 3 167 Bibliography 168
Contents
ix
ST.4 Solving Linear Programming Problems Graphically 174 Graphing Linear Inequalities 174 Graphing the Feasible Region 176 Finding the Optimal Solution 177 Identifying the Optimal Solution Directly by Graphical Means 179 51.5 The Simplex Method: An Overview 180 51.6 Solving Linear Programming Problems with Excel 181 Entering Large Problems Efficiently 185 51.7 Interpreting the Sensitivity Report 187 Shadow Prices 187 Objective Function Coefficients and RightHand Sides 188 Adding a New Variable 188 Using Sensitivity Analysis 189 51.8 Recognizing Special Problems 191 Unbounded Solutions 191 Empty Feasible Region 192 Degeneracy 194 Multiple Optimal Solutions 194 Redundant Constraints 194 51.9 The Application of Linear Programming to Production and Operations Analysis 195 Bibliography 197
Summary, of the Solution Technique for AlUUnits Discounts 223 Incremental Quantity Discounts 223 Summary, of the Solution Technique for Incremental Discounts 225 Other Discount Schedules 225 Problems for Section 4.7 226 *4.8 Resource-Constrained Multiple Product Systems 227 Problems for Section 4.8 230 4.9 EOQ Models for Production Planning 230 ProblemsfanSection 4.9 234 4.10 Power-of-Two Policies 235 4.11 Historical Notes and Additional Topics 237 Snapshot Application: Mervyn 's Recognized for State-of-the-Art Inventory Control System 238 4.12 Summary 239 Additional Problems on Deterministic Inventory Models 240 Appendix 4-A Mathematical Derivations for Multiproduct Constrained EOQ Systems 244 Append ix 4-B Glossary of Notation for Chapter 4 246 Bibliography 246
Chapter 5 Chapter 4
x Contents
Derivation of the Expected Cost Function 267 The Cost Function 269 Inventory Level versus Inventory Position 271 5.5 Service Levels in (Q, R) Systems 272 Type 1 Service 272 Type 2 Service 273 Optimal (Q, R) Policies Subject to Type 2 Constraint 274 Imputed Shortage Cost 275 Scaling of Lead Time Demand 2 76 Estimating Sigma When Inventory Control and Forecasting A re Linked 2 76 *Lead Time Variability 277 Calculations in Excel 278 Negative Safety Stock 2 78 Problems for Sections 5.4 and 5.5 279 5.6 Additional Discussion of Periodic-Review Systems 281 (s, S) Policies 281 *Service Levels in Periodic-Review Systems 281 Problems for Section 5.6 282 Snapshot Application: Tropicana Uses Sophisticated Modeling for Inventory Management 283 5.7 Multiproduct Systems 283 ABCAnalysis 283 Exchange Curves 285 Problems for Section 5.7 288 *5.8 Overview of Advanced Topics 289 Multi-echelon Systems 289 Perishable Inventory Problems 290 Snapshot Application: Triad's Inventory Systems Meet Markets 'Needs 291
5.9
Appendix 5-A Notational Conventions and Probability Review 300 Appendix 5-B Additional Results and Extensions for the Newsboy Model 301 Appendix 5-C Derivation of the Optimal (Q,R) Policy 304 Appendix 5-D Probability Distributions for Inventory Management 304 Appendix 5-E Glossary of Notation for Chapter 5 308 Bibliography 309
Contents
xi
Implementation of JIT in the United States 401 Problems for Section 7.6 402
A Comparison of MRP and JIT 403 JIT or Lean Production? 404 Historical Notes 405
Additional Problems for Chapter 7 407
417
Chapter 7 Push and Pull Production Control Systems: MRP and JIT 364
Chapter Overview 364
MRP Basics 367 JIT Basics 369 The Explosion Calculus 370 Problems for Section 7.1 374 Alternative Lot-Sizing Schemes 376 EOQ Lot Sizing 376 The Silver-Meal Heuristic 377 Least Unit Cost 378 Part Period Balancing 3 79 Problems for Section 7.2 380 Incorporating Lot-Sizing Algorithms into the Explosion Calculus . 382 Problems for Section 7.3 383 Lot Sizing with Capacity Constraints 384 Problems for Section 7.4 387 Shortcomings of MRP 388 Uncertainty 388 Capacity Planning 389 Rolling Horizons and System Nervousness 390 Additional Considerations 392 Snapshot Application: Raymond Corporation Builds World-Class Manufacturing with MRP II 393 Problems for Section 7.5 394 JIT Fundamentals 395 The Mechanics ofKanban 395 Single Minute Exchange of Dies 397 Advantages and Disadvantages of the Justin-Time Philosophy 398
Chapter Overview 417 8.1 Production Scheduling and the Hierarchy of Production Decisions 420 8.2 Important Characteristics of Job Shop Scheduling Problems 422
8.3 Objectives of Job Shop Management 422 Job Shop Scheduling Terminology 423
8.4
7.1 7.2
8.5
7.3
8.6
7.4 7.5
8.7
7.6
8.8
xii
Contents
The Two-Machine Flow Shop Case- 447 Problems for Section 8.8 448
8.9
8.10
455
9.3 9.4
513
Problems for Section 8.10 459 Snapshot Application: Manufacturing Divisions Realize Savings with Scheduling Software 461
Simulation: A Valuable Scheduling Tool Post-MRP Production Scheduling Software 463 Historical Notes 463 Summary 464
Additional Problems on Scheduling 465
462
Bibliography
471
9.6
Resource Considerations
533
Resource Constraints for Single-Project Scheduling 533 Resource Constraints for Multiproject Scheduling 535 Resource Loading Profiles 536 Problems for Section 9.6 538
Birth and Death Analysis for the M/M/l Queue 478 Calculation of the Expected System Measures for the M/M/l Queue 481 The Waiting Time Distribution 482 Solution of the General Case 484 Multiple Servers in Parallel: The M/M/c Queue 485 The M/M/l Queue with a Finite Capacity 489 Results for Nonexponential Service Distributions 492 The M/G/oo. Queue 493 Optimization of Queuing Systems 495
Typical Service System Design Problems 495 Modeling Framework 495
Organizational Issues in Project Management 540 Historical Notes 541 Project Management Software for the PC 542
Snapshot Application: Project Management Helps United Stay on Schedule 543 Snapshot Application: Thomas Brothers Plans Staffing with Project Management Software 543 Snapshot Application: Florida Power and Light Takes Project Management Seriously 543
9.10 Summary
544
Contents xiii
Chapter 10
Facilities Layout and Location 550 Chapter Overview 550 Snapshot Application: Sun Microsystems Pioneers New Flex Office System 553 10.1 The Facilities Layout Problem 554 10.2 Patterns of Flow 555 Activity Relationship Chart 555 From-To Chart 557 10.3 Types of Layouts 559 Fixed Position Layouts 559 Product Layouts 559 Process Layouts 560 Layouts Based on Group Technology 560 Problems for Sections 10.1-10.3 562 10.4 A Prototype Layout Problem and the Assignment Model 564 The Assignment Algorithm 565 Problems for Section 10.4 567 *10.5 More Advanced Mathematical Programming Formulations 568 ProblemfarSection 10.5 569 10.6 Computerized Layout Techniques 569 CRAFT 570 COFAD 574 ALDEP 575 CORELAP 576 PLANET 577 Computerized Methods versus Human Planners 577 Dynamic Plant Layouts 5 78 Other Computer Methods 578 Problems for Section 10.6 579 10.7 Flexible Manufacturing Systems 582 Advantages of Flexible Manufacturing Systems 584 Disadvantages of Flexible Manufacturing Systems 584 Decision Making and Modeling of the FMS 585 The Future of FMS 588 Problems for Section 10.7 590 10.8 Locating New Facilities 590 Snapshot Application: Kraft Foods Uses Optimization and Simulation to Determine Best Layout 591 Measures of Distance 592 Problems for Section 10.8 593
The Single-Facility Rectilinear Distance Location Problem 593 Contour Lines 596 Minimax Problems 597 Problems for Section 10.9 600 10.10 Euclidean Distance Problems 601 The Gravity Problem 601 The Straight-Line Distance Problem 602 Problems for Section 10.10 603 10.11 Other Location Models 604 Locating Multiple Facilities 605 Further Extensions 606 Problems for Section 10.11 608 10.12 Historical Notes 609 10.13 Summary 610 Additional Problems on Layout and Location 611 Spreadsheet Problems for Chapter 10 616 Appendix 10-A Finding Centroids 617 Appendix 10-B Computing Contour Lines 619 Bibliography 622
10.9
xiv
Contents
11.7
12.2
11.8 11.9
12.3
12.4
11.11 11.12
Sequential Sampling Plans 667 ProblemsfarSectionll.il 671 Average Outgoing Quality 672
Snapshot Application: Motorola Leads the Way with Six-Sigma Quality Programs 674 Problems for Section 11.12 674
11.13
12.5 12.6
12.7
12.9
Appendix 11-A Approximating Distributions 695 Append ix 11 -B Glossary of Notation for Chapter 11 on Quality and Assurance 697 Bibliography 698
Chapter 12
Reliability and Maintainability 700 Chapter Overview 700 12.1 Reliability of a Single Component 704
Introduction to Reliability Concepts 704 Preliminary Notation and Definitions 705 The Exponential Failure Law 707 Problems for Section 12.1 710
Appendix 12-A Glossary of Notation on Reliability and Maintainability 751 Bibliography 753