GLOBAL WARMING Millions on Bangladesh coastline to be trapped

June 19, 2013 | Filed under: News | Posted by: bdchronicle

An iceberg floats in Jacobshavn fjord in Greenland in 2006.

The World Bank has warned that Bangladesh, under a 2C warming, emerges as an impact hotspot with sealevel rise causing threats to food production, livelihoods, urban areas and infrastructure. Shifting rain patterns in South Asia leaving some parts under water and others without enough water for power generation, irrigation, or drinking are the likely impacts of a possible global temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius in the next few decades that threatens to trap millions of people in poverty, a World Bank report on climate change says. Under 4C warming, the west coast and southern India, as well as Bhutan and northern Bangladesh, are projected to shift to new, high-temperature climatic regimes, the report said. The report, prepared for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, reveals how rising global temperatures are increasingly threatening the health and livelihoods of the most vulnerable populations, crucially magnifying problems each region is struggling with today. Unusual heat is projected for 6080 percent of the Northern Hemisphere summer months in most parts of the region, the WB report said Bangladesh emerges as an impact hotspot with increasing and compounding challenges occurring in the same timeframe from extreme river floods, more intense tropical cyclones, rising sea levels, extraordinarily high temperatures, and declining crop yields. Increased river flooding combined with tropical cyclone surges poses a high risk of inundation in areas with the largest shares of poor populations. A 27 cm sea-level rise, projected for the 2040s, in combination with storm surges from an average 10-year return period cyclone, such as Cyclone Sidr, could inundate an area more than 80-percent larger than the area inundated at present by a similar event, it adds. TURN DOWN THE HEAT

Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience builds on a World Bank report released late last year, which concluded the world would warm by 4 degrees Celsius (4C or 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century if we did not take concerted action now. This new report looks at the likely impacts of present day, 2C and 4C warming on agricultural production, water resources, coastal ecosystems and cities across Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and South East Asia. Deaths in India and Bangladesh currently account for 86 percent of global mortalities from cyclones even though only 15 percent of all tropical cyclones affect this region. This new report outlines an alarming scenario for the days and years ahead what we could face in our lifetime, said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. The scientists tell us that if the world warms by 2C warming which may be reached in 20 to 30 years that will cause widespread food shortages, unprecedented heat-waves, and more intense cyclones. In the near-term, climate change, which is already unfolding, could batter the slums even more and greatly harm the lives and the hopes of individuals and families who have had little hand in raising the Earths temperature. These changes forecast for the tropics illustrate the level of hardships that will be inflicted on all regions eventually, it we fail to keep warming under control, Kim said. Urgent action is needed to not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also to help countries prepare for a world of dramatic climate and weather extremes, he added. Source: The Daily Star

Latest WB report portrays grim future amidst extreme weather

Many are still living on the embankment along the Shibsa river at Jaulakhali of Dacope upazila in Khulna. They moved here after Aila hit the area in May 2009 but could not go back, as the cyclone had washed away their homes. People in the southern region are the worst victims of climate change in the country.

Bangladesh will become one of the worst-affected South Asian countries due to global warming, says the World Bank. With rising sea levels, extreme heat, and more intense cyclones threatening food production, livelihoods and infrastructure, the warming climate will also slow poverty alleviation, says the global lender. The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics prepared a scientific report for the bank that was released yesterday. It forecasts a two degrees Celsius rise in the worlds average temperature in the next decades. Bangladesh faces particularly severe challenges with climate change threatening its impressive progress in overcoming poverty, Johannes Zutt, World Bank country director for Bangladesh and Nepal, said in a statement. The report cited Bangladesh as one of more potential impact hotspots threatened by extreme floods, more intense tropical cyclones, rising sea levels and very high temperatures. Cyclone Sidr, which struck the country in 2006, exposed 3.45 million households to inundation. The report says in 2050 as many as 9.7 million people could be inundated by three metres of water if such a storm strikes. Considering the present warming trends, the report warns that even 20 to 30 years from now shifting rain patterns could leave some areas under water and others without enough water for power generation, irrigation or even drinking. South Asia is already experiencing a warming climate, it notes further. The report looks at the likely impacts on agricultural production, water resources, coastal ecosystems and cities across South Asia by the present day increased temperature (0.8 degree Celsius), and a possible two-degree Celsius and a four-degree Celsius increase. The report projects that the consequences for South Asia will be even worse if the global average temperature increases by four degrees Celsius by 2090. In that scenario, which is likely unless action is taken now, South Asia will suffer more extreme droughts and floods, rising sea levels, melting glaciers and declines in food production. Flood affected areas could increase by as much as 29 percent for a 2.5 degrees Celsius temperature rise in Bangladesh, says the report. The report notes the impacts of progressive global warming would be the hardest on the poor and poor harvest and associated income loss from agriculture will continue the trend of migration from rural to urban areas. If the sea level rises 65cm in 2080, around 40 percent arable land will be lost in southern Bangladesh, the World Bank has said in a news release. It notes about 20 million people in the coastal areas arre affected by salinity in drinking water and rising sea levels; and more intense cyclones and storm surges could intensify the contamination of groundwater and surface water, causing more diarrhoea outbreaks. In South Asia, it is urgent to do prevention work, some of which is already happening, said Isabel Guerrero, World Bank vice-president for South Asia. Bangladesh is at the forefront. We have projects and a large multi-donor fund that works on having early warning systems for floods and embankments when there are floods to protect crops and fields and to prevent destruction of the urban infrastructure it is very important that the countries in the region have a voice in the global conversation about climate change. Many of the worst climate change impacts can be avoided by keeping the warming below the two degrees Celsius but the window for action is narrowing rapidly, the World Bank says.

It has stressed the need for urgent action to build resilience through economic development and addressing risks to agriculture, water resources, coastal infrastructure and health. This new report outlines an alarming scenario for the days and years ahead what we could face in our lifetime, said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. The scientists tell us that if the world warms by 2C warming which may be reached in 20 to 30 years that will cause widespread food shortages, unprecedented heat waves, and more intense cyclones. In the nearterm, climate change, which is already unfolding, could batter the slums even more and greatly harm the lives and the hopes of individuals and families who have had little hand in raising the Earths temperature. These changes forecast for the tropics illustrate the level of hardships that will be inflicted on all regions eventually, if we fail to keep warming under control, Kim said. Urgent action is needed to not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also to help countries prepare for a world of dramatic climate and weather extremes, he added. Source: The Daily Star