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CUADRO N 4.

24
ANALISIS ESTADISTICO DE LA ESTACION BASE PERIODO 1965 - 2006
ESTACION : PUQUIO
CODIGO : 157230

AO
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
MEDIA
NUMERO
SUMA
MAXIMO
M INIMO
MEDIANA
DESVIAC.
VARIANZA

ENE
48.80
42.90
204.40
115.60
28.60
189.80
62.00
156.40
124.40
105.00
45.80
160.40
1.40
69.40
19.90
45.80
32.50
78.90
34.20
96.15
21.60
133.10
119.40
132.50
394.50
33.80
72.80
5.86
150.18
160.24
111.82
84.55
74.68
191.80
64.40
187.20
107.00
98.30
46.00
57.00
42.00
87.30
96.15
43.0
4038.4
394.5
1.4
81.7
72.1
5193.9

DISTRITO
: PUQUIO
PROVINCIA
: LUCANAS
DEPARTAMENT. : AYACUCHO
FEB
129.20
53.90
374.40
57.10
81.60
69.40
95.40
191.60
104.40
64.80
61.10
152.80
174.90
28.00
70.70
8.10
106.70
54.40
131.30
114.80
134.70
158.80
82.10
83.10
252.80
15.40
29.80
73.99
135.02
197.95
84.25
176.37
108.62
115.30
229.10
129.20
145.60
142.20
71.50
89.40
74.60
167.40
114.80
43.0
4821.8
374.4
8.1
105.6
69.1
4772.0

MAR
53.20
47.70
147.10
120.60
146.50
67.60
152.80
167.00
138.80
31.60
77.90
69.60
68.40
53.20
124.30
82.40
78.00
32.20
205.60
102.49
318.30
145.40
22.40
51.10
102.49
50.30
107.40
61.24
146.25
104.43
131.98
78.04
94.06
86.60
84.00
140.90
136.10
132.50
80.80
94.90
45.70
122.50
102.49
43.0
4304.4
318.3
22.4
94.5
54.1
2924.4

ABR
8.50
5.50
59.40
1.80
39.30
7.00
36.40
7.60
58.20
17.40
2.80
4.00
0.00
14.10
0.00
0.00
32.50
18.50
29.80
20.89
52.60
22.80
11.40
29.80
7.20
3.80
21.40
12.81
46.68
12.81
12.81
47.99
12.81
1.30
17.50
16.50
43.70
33.40
12.50
58.70
22.00
13.30
20.89
43.0
877.5
59.4
0.0
15.3
17.6
310.9

MAY
0.00
0.00
35.00
0.00
0.00
10.80
4.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.80
6.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.80
4.19
6.80
0.00
6.10
24.40
4.40
17.20
0.00
0.64
2.46
11.58
0.64
0.64
0.64
0.00
1.50
7.20
0.00
3.80
12.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.19
43.0
175.9
35.0
0.0
0.6
7.2
52.4

JUN
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.80
5.80
1.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.30
0.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
10.60
0.00
0.42
0.42
9.31
0.42
0.42
0.42
10.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.30
1.30
43.0
54.4
10.6
0.0
0.0
2.8
8.0

JUL
0.00
0.00
5.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.18
0.00
0.00
2.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
13.80
0.00
14.60
0.00
0.00
1.18
43.0
49.7
14.6
0.0
0.0
3.3
11.0

ALTITUD
LATITUD
LONGITUD
AGO
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.60
19.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
17.50
0.00
0.00
1.87
0.00
1.87
4.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.65
2.44
0.65
0.65
1.47
7.02
0.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
2.80
0.00
6.90
1.40
4.20
1.87
43.0
78.4
19.4
0.0
0.0
4.2
17.4

SEP
4.00
0.00
7.60
0.00
5.20
18.60
0.00
21.80
35.00
5.40
2.40
12.10
19.90
0.00
0.00
20.50
0.00
0.00
7.90
5.75
0.00
0.00
0.50
6.10
0.00
12.00
0.00
0.84
0.84
0.84
1.48
2.55
16.13
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.60
5.20
0.00
14.30
13.90
0.00
5.75
43.0
241.4
35.0
0.0
1.2
8.2
66.6

: 3213 msnm
: 1442'00" S
: 7400'00" O

OCT
4.40
26.60
7.27
34.50
7.27
3.80
2.20
24.60
7.27
7.27
3.60
7.27
7.27
7.27
13.40
18.00
0.00
0.00
2.90
7.27
0.40
0.00
3.30
6.80
9.60
2.40
11.60
2.17
17.35
2.17
2.17
2.17
5.62
0.00
16.80
12.60
5.70
7.60
1.20
0.00
3.60
0.00
7.27
43.0
305.4
34.5
0.0
5.7
7.7
59.9

NOV
12.13
23.20
12.13
44.70
12.80
1.80
1.60
12.13
4.60
4.20
12.13
12.13
3.40
12.13
12.13
12.13
15.60
24.10
4.70
12.13
12.13
2.80
7.40
13.30
12.13
12.13
4.40
2.40
12.80
2.40
39.98
4.82
6.06
33.40
0.60
4.60
5.40
37.50
12.13
5.20
12.13
16.00
12.13
43.0
509.6
44.7
0.6
12.1
10.4
108.0

400

450

FIGURA N 4.27
ANALISIS DE SALTO

450
400

PRECIPITACION (mm)

350
300
250

200
150
100

50
0
0

50

100

150

200

250

MESES ACUMULADO

300

350

DIC
45.29
29.50
27.40
50.90
56.40
24.60
44.20
80.80
22.80
3.00
36.90
22.50
15.40
45.29
45.29
3.40
76.10
45.29
65.10
45.29
85.30
43.10
4.70
31.30
45.29
89.70
45.29
16.94
83.35
43.31
58.34
16.94
90.18
79.80
22.20
77.80
5.10
23.10
45.80
70.60
87.70
51.00
45.29
43.0
1902.3
90.2
3.0
45.3
25.8
666.2

TOTAL
305.52
229.30
880.40
425.20
377.67
393.40
399.40
669.53
502.87
259.47
250.43
446.90
290.67
229.39
285.72
197.43
358.90
253.39
488.30
413.31
631.83
507.87
266.80
379.40
828.41
247.33
292.69
177.96
597.79
545.69
444.54
415.96
416.24
518.50
436.10
580.00
449.20
505.70
282.33
411.60
303.03
463.00
413.31

CUADRO N 4.25
Se plantea la hiptesis de que existe un salto en el ao de 1986, para el cual se le realizara el
anlisis estadstico, es decir el anlisis de saltos y tendencias para los periodos citados
NUMERO DE DATOS, PROMEDIO Y DESVIACION ESTANDAR PARA LOS PERIODOS DE
ANALISIS DE LA ESTACION PUQUIO
PERIODO
1965
1986
1987
2006

N
264
240

MEDIA
33.32
35.68

DESV. ESTANDAR
53.65
55.05

S(x)2
2878.72
3031.04

ANALISIS DE SALTOS
CONSISTENCIA EN LA MEDIA
Sp

Sd

Tc

Alfa

G.L.

Tt (95%)
Tabla

Comparc.

Diferencia
Signific.

54.33

4.85

0.49

0.05

502

1.645

Tc < Tt

NO

CONSISTENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR

Si :

Entonces

Si :

Entonces

Fc
Calculado

Alfa

G.L.N.

G.L.D.

Ft (95%)
Tabla

Comparacin

Diferencia
Signific.

1.05

0.05

239

263

1.22

Fc < Ft

NO

ANALISIS DE TENDENCIA
TENDENCIA EN LA MEDIA
n =
504
Tm =
34.44
t
=
252.50
54.28
STm =
145.64
St
=
Tm*t = 8731.45
R

Tc
Calculado

G.L.

Tt (95%)
Tabla

Comparc.

Diferencia
Signific.

0.00

0.002

34.03

0.10

502

1.645

Tc < Tt

No

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


n =
42
Tm =
50.22
t
=
21.50
22.68
STm =
12.27
St
=
Tm*t = 1085.82
R

Tc
Calculado

G.L.

Tt (95%)
Tabla

Comparc.

Diferencia
Signific.

0.02

0.040

49.37

0.14

40

1.684

Tc < Tt

No

CUADRO N 4.26
ANALISIS ESTADISTICO DE LA ESTACION BASE PERIODO 1965 - 2002
ESTACION : LUCANAS
CODIGO : 157206

AO
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
MEDIA
NUMERO
SUMA
MAXIMO
M INIMO
MEDIANA
DESVIAC.
VARIANZA

ENE
65.60
135.80
56.20
119.36
24.00
181.20
80.70
15.90
115.30
309.80
152.40
244.90
21.70
88.40
135.20
135.20
136.90
81.70
49.50
32.90
27.70
134.80
162.40
82.20
198.30
113.92
50.80
119.36
159.00
101.20
37.10
162.70
111.10
214.20
121.40
223.40
136.00
191.90
119.21
39.0
4530.1
309.8
15.9
119.4
67.6
4575.5

FEB
212.60
144.00
95.40
36.10
131.00
192.20
143.70
54.00
157.70
177.40
117.60
139.80
278.00
56.50
49.50
39.30
185.60
160.30
48.80
49.80
221.40
151.70
23.10
231.20
144.10
132.44
58.60
46.20
154.20
178.10
42.40
316.90
158.90
131.90
269.40
150.80
138.40
196.40
137.25
39.0
5215.4
316.9
23.1
143.9
73.6
5424.0

DISTRITO
: LUCANAS
PROVINCIA
: LUCANAS
DEPARTAMENT. : AYACUCHO
MAR
247.30
178.00
118.00
158.29
259.00
391.70
149.80
109.10
151.60
174.40
178.10
124.70
181.70
81.40
192.10
119.30
211.30
61.60
14.60
138.90
289.70
118.50
14.30
199.00
206.40
166.26
215.00
158.29
151.50
95.60
210.80
128.40
66.60
101.20
118.70
124.50
234.00
183.50
158.50
39.0
6023.1
391.7
14.3
154.9
72.9
5307.7

ABR
42.50
85.40
77.20
45.59
144.60
45.59
69.60
0.80
96.70
63.70
9.20
3.00
3.00
30.30
4.50
0.00
50.80
33.00
4.10
16.80
142.00
21.50
0.00
36.10
4.60
42.13
16.00
45.59
52.70
44.40
22.60
181.60
55.70
24.60
64.70
16.30
97.30
34.80
45.50
39.0
1729.0
181.6
0.0
39.1
42.8
1833.9

MAY
43.00
6.50
30.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
6.20
0.00
28.40
2.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.00
5.24
0.00
0.00
8.90
0.00
0.00
18.70
8.80
0.00
7.30
8.10
5.60
29.00
5.79
39.0
220.1
43.0
0.0
0.3
10.3
106.8

JUN
15.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.30
0.00
20.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
22.90
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
6.00
2.81
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.70
0.10
0.60
0.30
2.90
2.11
39.0
80.0
22.9
0.0
0.0
5.4
29.3

JUL
13.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.10
2.30
2.30
0.00
3.80
9.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.60
1.46
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
3.40
0.00
0.50
1.25
1.26
39.0
47.8
13.7
0.0
0.0
2.8
7.9

ALTITUD
LATITUD
LONGITUD
AGO
32.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.23
0.00
0.00
0.00
5.20
11.40
3.00
3.23
0.00
0.00
4.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.20
2.59
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
21.40
3.23
0.00
0.10
14.40
4.10
12.70
3.22
39.0
122.2
32.0
0.0
0.0
6.8
45.9

SEP
14.00
2.10
0.00
0.00
20.40
20.40
0.00
1.00
5.32
0.00
0.50
5.32
5.32
2.10
0.00
10.80
0.00
19.90
0.00
6.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
4.65
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
13.00
20.20
5.32
1.60
9.10
13.80
19.00
1.60
5.31
39.0
201.6
20.4
0.0
1.6
7.1
50.6

: 3400 msnm
: 1437'00" S
: 7414'00" O

OCT
7.00
15.75
0.00
12.20
27.50
27.50
15.75
0.90
0.00
15.75
11.50
11.40
11.40
15.60
28.10
42.60
15.50
43.90
10.20
28.90
0.00
0.00
9.50
0.00
0.00
14.31
0.00
18.30
0.00
0.00
9.60
5.00
10.80
11.20
81.80
82.20
12.70
0.20
15.71
39.0
597.1
82.2
0.0
11.4
19.5
378.9

NOV
2.00
9.50
19.20
9.90
17.00
17.00
19.20
0.20
31.60
19.20
1.00
27.60
27.60
43.20
2.70
19.20
23.80
28.70
2.00
58.10
19.20
19.20
4.00
19.20
2.40
18.10
17.20
1.90
15.60
19.20
61.00
10.30
43.50
35.30
2.60
23.10
2.80
35.30
19.17
39.0
728.6
61.0
0.2
19.2
15.2
231.6

DIC
13.30
28.50
51.30
10.30
33.00
3.00
10.50
3.00
39.50
36.80
57.60
35.00
35.00
17.20
22.00
30.70
128.00
13.10
16.80
67.20
82.30
80.40
2.00
59.80
10.60
36.24
17.00
4.40
18.80
4.10
68.30
57.30
71.90
60.00
83.90
84.10
9.10
51.10
38.24
39.0
1453.1
128.0
2.0
34.0
30.1
907.5

FIGURA N 4.28
ANALISIS DE SALTO

450
400

PRECIPITACION (mm)

350
300
250
200
150
100
50

0
0

50

100

150

200

250

MESES ACUMULADO

300

350

400

450

TOTAL
708.20
605.55
447.70
391.74
656.50
878.59
489.25
185.40
608.22
800.28
578.50
596.02
568.02
339.90
450.80
409.50
755.13
442.20
146.00
430.10
782.30
526.10
215.30
627.50
580.20
540.15
374.60
394.04
560.80
442.60
464.80
922.50
540.85
584.70
762.50
741.30
659.80
740.65
551.27

CUADRO N 4.27
Se plantea la hiptesis de que existe un salto en el ao de 1985, para el cual se le realizara el
anlisis estadstico, es decir el anlisis de saltos y tendencias para los periodos citados
NUMERO DE DATOS, PROMEDIO Y DESVIACION ESTANDAR PARA LOS PERIODOS DE
ANALISIS DE LA ESTACION LUCANAS
PERIODO
1965
1985
1986
2002

N
252
204

MEDIA
44.72
47.44

DESV. ESTANDAR
68.31
67.90

S(x)2
4666.28
4610.73

ANALISIS DE SALTOS
CONSISTENCIA EN LA MEDIA
Sp

Sd

Tc

Alfa

G.L.

Tt (95%)
Tabla

Comparc.

Diferencia
Signific.

68.13

6.42

0.42

0.05

454

1.645

Tc < Tt

NO

CONSISTENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR

Si :

Entonces

Si :

Entonces

Fc
Calculado

Alfa

G.L.N.

G.L.D.

Ft (95%)
Tabla

Comparacin

Diferencia
Signific.

1.01

0.05

251

203

1.25

Fc < Ft

NO

ANALISIS DE TENDENCIA
TENDENCIA EN LA MEDIA
n =
456
Tm =
45.94
t
=
228.50
68.07
STm =
131.78
St
=
Tm*t = 10609.08
R

Tc
Calculado

G.L.

Tt (95%)
Tabla

Comparc.

Diferencia
Signific.

0.01

0.006

44.47

0.27

454

1.645

Tc < Tt

No

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


n =
38
Tm =
66.02
t
=
19.50
21.34
STm =
11.11
St
=
Tm*t = 1297.64
R

Tc
Calculado

G.L.

Tt (95%)
Tabla

Comparc.

Diferencia
Signific.

0.04

0.083

64.39

0.27

36

1.697

Tc < Tt

No

CUADRO N 4.28
ANALISIS ESTADISTICO DE LA ESTACION BASE PERIODO 1965 - 1996
ESTACION : PAUCACORRAL

DISTRITO

: PUQUIO

ALTITUD

: 4060 msnm

CODIGO

PROVINCIA

: LUCANAS

LATITUD

: 1440'00" S

LONGITUD

: 7405'00" O

: 157210/DRE-05

DEPARTAMENT. : AYACUCHO
AO

ENE

FEB

MAR

ABR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AGO

SEP

OCT

NOV

DIC

TOTAL

1965

27.50

144.30

76.20

8.40

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

27.50

283.90

1966

55.50

68.40

161.10

0.00

10.50

0.00

0.00

0.00

3.40

26.00

37.10

67.60

429.60

1967

353.00

663.80

230.60

140.60

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

4.00

0.00

0.00

5.20

1397.20

1968

215.90

78.30

193.90

0.00

14.40

0.00

0.00

0.00

8.70

5.40

10.90

30.20

557.70

1969

30.00

128.80

138.60

49.70

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

5.30

0.00

17.60

43.00

413.00

1970

465.80

52.00

115.30

6.80

5.40

0.00

0.00

0.00

33.40

5.80

0.00

5.80

690.30

1971

58.60

145.10

174.40

45.60

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

69.90

493.60

1972

202.50

137.10

404.80

27.20

0.00

0.00

3.40

0.00

12.00

30.60

16.10

77.90

911.60

1973

105.60

75.00

73.80

36.60

0.00

0.00

0.00

6.90

20.80

0.00

6.40

31.90

357.00

1974

196.10

140.70

268.30

62.30

0.00

0.00

0.00

54.20

5.40

0.00

17.00

14.30

758.30

1975

111.90

133.60

232.70

8.50

19.90

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

4.60

0.00

60.20

571.40

1976

133.60

214.00

172.50

7.50

12.70

0.00

0.00

0.00

87.30

0.00

0.00

9.40

637.00

1977

4.60

174.90

68.30

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

4.70

0.00

11.70

11.40

275.60

1978

89.53

98.47

105.51

17.97

2.88

0.00

0.14

2.81

8.45

3.30

5.33

20.74

355.12

1979

107.85

118.63

127.10

21.65

3.47

0.00

0.17

3.38

10.18

3.98

6.42

24.98

427.80

1980

89.70

38.60

134.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

17.20

0.00

21.00

47.30

0.00

22.50

370.30

1981

123.40

252.70

40.80

58.60

0.00

0.00

0.00

17.90

0.00

0.00

21.90

143.20

658.50

1982

135.70

155.00

106.80

27.30

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

22.70

48.90

47.10

12.90

556.40

1983

38.90

70.20

57.50

22.70

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

42.20

231.50

1984

122.20

165.50

109.60

0.00

0.00

0.00

5.70

5.70

9.10

27.30

25.90

36.60

507.60

1985

141.13

132.00

422.80

54.30

23.40

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

92.30

865.93

1986

212.10

324.90

362.20

4.80

8.60

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

139.20

1051.80

1987

101.69

111.86

119.85

20.41

3.27

0.00

0.16

3.19

9.60

3.75

6.05

23.56

403.39

1988

137.30

185.40

172.36

42.60

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

12.90

0.00

130.00

680.56

1989

249.70

224.20

268.80

72.20

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

18.80

11.63

47.40

892.73

1990

141.13

158.28

70.80

0.00

27.90

0.00

0.00

19.90

0.00

0.00

57.20

115.80

591.01

1991

127.50

73.80

203.40

23.50

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

428.20

1992

72.80

80.07

85.79

14.61

2.34

0.00

0.12

2.28

6.87

2.69

4.33

16.86

288.75

1993

141.13

158.28

172.36

11.80

5.80

0.79

0.97

0.00

11.90

5.30

0.00

27.20

535.53

1994

201.80

206.20

264.50

25.20

14.20

21.20

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

733.10

1995

77.10

23.30

87.60

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

6.30

4.80

42.50

31.60

273.20

1996

52.30

107.60

42.10

66.40

0.00

0.00

0.00

3.50

5.80

0.00

2.60

32.00

312.30

MEDIA

135.11

151.28

164.51

27.41

4.84

0.69

0.87

3.74

9.28

7.86

10.87

44.17

560.62

NUMERO

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

SUMA

4323.6

4841.0

5264.4

877.2

154.7

22.0

27.9

119.8

296.9

251.4

347.8

1413.3

MAXIMO

465.8

663.8

422.8

140.6

27.9

21.2

17.2

54.2

87.3

48.9

57.2

143.2

M INIMO

4.6

23.3

40.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

MEDIANA

122.8

135.4

136.3

21.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

5.4

1.3

4.8

30.9

DESVIAC.

94.7

VARIANZA 8975.1

113.7

100.3

30.2

7.7

3.7

3.2

10.4

16.4

13.6

15.5

40.6

12932.6

10065.6

913.7

58.9

14.0

10.2

107.5

268.1

184.3

240.8

1650.0

FIGURA N 4.29
ANALISIS DE SALTO
700

650
600
PRECIPITACION (mm)

550
500

450
400
350
300

250
200
150
100

50
0
0

50

100

150

200

MESES ACUMULADO

250

300

350

CUADRO N 4.29
Se plantea la hiptesis de que existe un salto en el ao de 1981, para el cual se le realizara el
anlisis estadstico, es decir el anlisis de saltos y tendencias para los periodos citados
NUMERO DE DATOS, PROMEDIO Y DESVIACION ESTANDAR PARA LOS PERIODOS DE
ANALISIS DE LA ESTACION PAUCACORRAL
PERIODO
1965
1981
1982
1996

N
204
180

MEDIA
47.00
46.40

DESV. ESTANDAR
86.38
75.63

S(x)2
7461.84
5720.16

ANALISIS DE SALTOS
CONSISTENCIA EN LA MEDIA
Sp

Sd

Tc

Alfa

G.L.

Tt (95%)
Tabla

Comparc.

Diferencia
Signific.

81.52

8.34

0.07

0.05

382

1.645

Tc < Tt

NO

CONSISTENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR

Si :

Entonces

Si :

Entonces

Fc
Calculado

Alfa

G.L.N.

G.L.D.

Ft (95%)
Tabla

Comparacin

Diferencia
Signific.

1.30

0.05

203

179

1.318

Fc < Ft

NO

ANALISIS DE TENDENCIA
TENDENCIA EN LA MEDIA
n =
384
Tm =
46.72
t
=
192.50
81.42
STm =
111.00
St
=
Tm*t = 8541.45
R

Tc
Calculado

G.L.

Tt (95%)
Tabla

Comparc.

Diferencia
Signific.

-0.05

-0.037

53.78

0.98

382

1.645

Tc < Tt

No

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


n =
32
Tm =
72.26
t
=
16.50
39.29
STm =
9.38
St
=
Tm*t = 1117.25
R

Tc
Calculado

G.L.

Tt (95%)
Tabla

Comparc.

Diferencia
Signific.

-0.20

-0.852

86.31

1.18

30

1.697

Tc < Tt

No

CUADRO N 4.30
ANALISIS ESTADISTICO DE LA ESTACION BASE PERIODO 1965 - 1996
ESTACION : PAMPAMARCA

DISTRITO

: AUCARA

ALTITUD

: 3400 msnm

CODIGO

PROVINCIA

: LUCANAS

LATITUD

: 1414'00" S

REGION

: AYACUCHO

LONGITUD

: 7412'00" O

: 157207/DRE-05

AO

ENE

FEB

MAR

ABR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AGO

SEP

OCT

NOV

DIC

TOTAL

1965

98.99

98.10

78.85

28.91

10.20

8.24

3.61

10.07

16.97

23.34

19.96

48.16

445.40

1966

82.20

74.20

59.60

12.50

49.50

0.00

0.00

0.00

5.00

28.80

50.30

55.70

417.80

1967

156.40

159.30

135.10

29.00

7.30

4.60

10.50

20.40

33.50

28.00

10.60

34.40

629.10

1968

147.10

136.70

238.70

18.90

64.30

38.30

2.60

15.90

18.52

102.60

1.00

38.50

823.12

1969

52.40

118.10

124.80

11.20

0.00

8.60

2.80

3.50

3.10

13.60

24.00

43.20

405.30

1970

102.50

92.20

90.80

38.70

34.20

2.00

3.40

0.00

20.50

9.90

20.20

64.60

479.00

1971

66.40

164.70

108.30

14.00

0.80

0.00

0.00

1.50

1.30

11.50

1.20

108.50

478.20

1972

199.10

155.70

166.20

32.80

2.40

0.00

0.70

1.40

42.90

91.00

21.30

82.10

795.60

1973

107.90

100.50

116.10

22.40

3.50

18.80

5.80

18.30

69.00

10.50

48.40

36.00

557.20

1974

434.70

104.10

68.00

44.00

11.10

3.50

5.00

40.50

16.40

0.00

14.90

57.10

799.30

1975

109.40

110.80

161.50

1.60

15.50

1.90

0.00

0.00

15.70

11.60

2.80

63.20

494.00

1976

125.50

137.60

62.10

4.80

15.10

0.00

17.40

18.40

70.10

0.00

10.70

47.10

508.80

1977

27.70

144.20

81.30

19.60

2.20

0.00

21.40

0.00

25.50

9.80

36.70

28.30

396.70

1978

146.60

14.30

58.80

32.70

0.00

0.00

0.00

6.80

6.50

10.50

29.20

33.90

339.30

1979

32.60

20.40

82.80

8.10

6.40

0.00

4.80

4.70

4.10

26.40

13.20

31.80

235.30

1980

62.90

50.50

111.00

9.70

4.00

3.90

20.10

7.50

14.00

58.70

4.90

34.10

381.30

1981

101.80

148.50

44.20

74.00

1.00

0.00

0.00

55.30

13.70

14.00

31.30

93.90

577.70

1982

94.60

64.40

25.20

40.90

0.00

9.20

0.00

7.30

22.60

35.00

39.60

20.40

359.20

1983

24.90

54.10

51.90

23.60

15.20

6.60

0.00

6.80

63.50

34.50

7.40

47.30

335.80

1984

94.60

252.00

137.50

91.10

1.50

33.70

0.70

31.80

6.70

26.20

63.60

55.50

794.90

1985

16.10

165.00

34.10

85.20

26.90

28.90

1.10

1.60

25.90

88.00

17.70

27.50

518.00

1986

151.20

196.80

71.60

37.90

12.30

0.00

17.30

8.60

21.00

0.00

0.00

46.60

563.30

1987

132.10

34.90

23.30

30.60

8.20

3.43

2.90

13.00

0.00

23.10

17.90

23.80

313.23

1988

165.60

71.50

28.40

69.30

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

13.60

30.20

0.60

70.60

449.80

1989

105.80

174.00

89.70

52.10

18.90

3.90

1.30

12.90

4.00

17.90

2.50

2.10

485.10

1990

67.40

14.70

43.20

4.20

15.30

43.80

0.00

8.60

0.00

26.60

62.70

96.50

383.00

1991

67.30

63.70

98.40

12.40

14.70

20.50

0.00

2.30

12.70

7.90

19.70

37.00

356.60

1992

66.20

83.00

8.50

2.50

0.00

8.30

0.00

16.00

0.00

23.70

32.00

24.60

264.80

1993

132.00

41.60

66.20

50.50

13.20

29.50

1.20

16.60

4.70

31.60

36.30

124.60

548.00

1994

131.90

153.10

85.50

26.00

1.30

9.60

3.50

0.00

15.70

1.90

10.10

83.50

522.10

1995

70.10

61.00

88.90

32.70

0.00

0.00

0.00

5.40

15.30

11.60

20.60

54.40

360.00

1996

69.80

152.80

102.80

44.60

0.00

0.00

0.00

15.20

8.50

4.10

22.30

60.10

480.20

MEDIA

107.62

106.64

85.73

31.45

11.09

8.98

3.94

10.95

18.47

25.39

21.68

52.35

484.29

NUMERO

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

33.0

SUMA

3443.8

3412.5

2743.4

1006.5

355.0

287.3

126.1

350.4

591.0

812.5

693.7

1675.1

MAXIMO

434.7

252.0

238.7

91.1

64.3

43.8

21.4

55.3

70.1

102.6

63.6

124.6

M INIMO

16.1

14.3

8.5

1.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

2.1

MEDIANA

100.4

102.3

82.1

29.0

6.9

3.7

1.2

7.4

14.7

20.5

19.8

47.2

DESVIAC.

74.3

VARIANZA 5518.6

57.9

48.2

23.5

14.8

12.6

6.3

12.5

18.9

25.8

17.5

27.4

3348.5

2320.2

552.2

219.5

159.2

39.5

156.2

356.6

665.7

306.5

749.7

FIGURA N 4.30
ANALISIS DE SALTO
450
400

PRECIPITACION (mm)

350
300
250
200
150

100
50
0
0

50

100

150

200

MESES ACUMULADO

250

300

350

CUADRO N 4.31
Se plantea la hiptesis de que existe un salto en el ao de 1974, para el cual se le realizara el
anlisis estadstico, es decir el anlisis de saltos y tendencias para los periodos citados
NUMERO DE DATOS, PROMEDIO Y DESVIACION ESTANDAR PARA LOS PERIODOS DE
ANALISIS DE LA ESTACION PAMPAMARCA
PERIODO
1965
1974
1975
1996

N
120
264

MEDIA
48.58
36.62

DESV. ESTANDAR
61.69
43.71

S(x)2
3805.88
1910.72

ANALISIS DE SALTOS
CONSISTENCIA EN LA MEDIA
Sp

Sd

Tc

Alfa

G.L.

Tt (95%)
Tabla

Comparc.

Diferencia
Signific.

50.01

5.51

2.17

0.05

382

1.645

Tc > Tt

SI

CONSISTENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR

Si :

Entonces

Si :

Entonces

Fc
Calculado

Alfa

G.L.N.

G.L.D.

Ft (95%)
Tabla

Comparacin

Diferencia
Signific.

1.99

0.05

119

263

1.301

Fc > Ft

SI

ANALISIS DE TENDENCIA
TENDENCIA EN LA MEDIA
n =
384
Tm =
40.36
t
=
192.50
50.25
STm =
111.00
St
=
Tm*t = 7269.15
R

Tc
Calculado

G.L.

Tt (95%)
Tabla

Comparc.

Diferencia
Signific.

-0.09

-0.041

48.16

1.76

382

1.645

Tc > Tt

Si

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


n =
32
Tm =
46.98
t
=
16.50
19.49
STm =
9.38
St
=
Tm*t =
735.15
R

Tc
Calculado

G.L.

Tt (95%)
Tabla

Comparc.

Diferencia
Signific.

-0.22

-0.456

54.50

1.27

30

1.697

Tc < Tt

No

CUADRO N 4.32
De este analisis se concluye que en la media los datos reflejan que son estadisticamente diferentes y en el analisis de la desviacion estandar de los datos
reflejan que tambien son estadisticamente diferentes, por lo tanto se necesita una correcion por salto, la correccion para el primer periodo se realizara mediante
la ecuacion:

Donde :

Xt :

Valor corregido de la informacion

Xt :

Valor a ser corregido


N

MEDIA

DESV. ESTANDAR

1965

PERIODO
1974

120

48.58

61.69

1975

1996

264

36.62

43.71

DATOS CORREGIDOS POR TENDENCIA 1965 - 1996

AO

ENE

FEB

MAR

ABR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AGO

SEP

OCT

NOV

DIC

ANUAL

1965

72.33

71.70

58.06

22.68

9.42

8.03

4.75

9.33

14.22

18.73

16.34

36.32

341.91

1966

60.44

54.77

44.42

11.05

37.27

2.19

2.19

2.19

5.74

22.60

37.83

41.66

322.36

1967

113.01

115.07

97.92

22.74

7.37

5.45

9.63

16.65

25.93

22.03

9.70

26.57

472.08

1968

106.42

99.05

171.33

15.59

47.75

29.33

4.04

13.46

15.32

74.89

2.90

29.47

609.55

1969

39.32

85.87

90.62

10.13

2.19

8.29

4.18

4.67

4.39

11.83

19.20

32.80

313.50

1970

74.82

67.52

66.53

29.61

26.43

3.61

4.60

2.19

16.72

9.21

16.51

47.97

365.72

1971

49.24

118.89

78.93

12.11

2.76

2.19

2.19

3.26

3.12

10.34

3.04

79.07

365.16

1972

143.27

112.52

119.96

25.43

3.89

2.19

2.69

3.19

32.59

66.67

17.29

60.37

590.05

1973

78.65

73.40

84.46

18.07

4.67

15.51

6.30

15.16

51.08

9.63

36.49

27.70

421.13

1974

310.20

75.95

50.38

33.37

10.06

4.67

5.74

30.89

13.81

2.19

12.75

42.65

592.67

1975

109.40

110.80

161.50

1.60

15.50

1.90

0.00

0.00

15.70

11.60

2.80

63.20

494.00

1976

125.50

137.60

62.10

4.80

15.10

0.00

17.40

18.40

70.10

0.00

10.70

47.10

508.80

1977

27.70

144.20

81.30

19.60

2.20

0.00

21.40

0.00

25.50

9.80

36.70

28.30

396.70

1978

146.60

14.30

58.80

32.70

0.00

0.00

0.00

6.80

6.50

10.50

29.20

33.90

339.30

1979

32.60

20.40

82.80

8.10

6.40

0.00

4.80

4.70

4.10

26.40

13.20

31.80

235.30

1980

62.90

50.50

111.00

9.70

4.00

3.90

20.10

7.50

14.00

58.70

4.90

34.10

381.30

1981

101.80

148.50

44.20

74.00

1.00

0.00

0.00

55.30

13.70

14.00

31.30

93.90

577.70

1982

94.60

64.40

25.20

40.90

0.00

9.20

0.00

7.30

22.60

35.00

39.60

20.40

359.20

1983

24.90

54.10

51.90

23.60

15.20

6.60

0.00

6.80

63.50

34.50

7.40

47.30

335.80

1984

94.60

252.00

137.50

91.10

1.50

33.70

0.70

31.80

6.70

26.20

63.60

55.50

794.90

1985

16.10

165.00

34.10

85.20

26.90

28.90

1.10

1.60

25.90

88.00

17.70

27.50

518.00

1986

151.20

196.80

71.60

37.90

12.30

0.00

17.30

8.60

21.00

0.00

0.00

46.60

563.30

1987

132.10

34.90

23.30

30.60

8.20

3.43

2.90

13.00

0.00

23.10

17.90

23.80

313.23

1988

165.60

71.50

28.40

69.30

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

13.60

30.20

0.60

70.60

449.80

1989

105.80

174.00

89.70

52.10

18.90

3.90

1.30

12.90

4.00

17.90

2.50

2.10

485.10

1990

67.40

14.70

43.20

4.20

15.30

43.80

0.00

8.60

0.00

26.60

62.70

96.50

383.00

1991

67.30

63.70

98.40

12.40

14.70

20.50

0.00

2.30

12.70

7.90

19.70

37.00

356.60

1992

66.20

83.00

8.50

2.50

0.00

8.30

0.00

16.00

0.00

23.70

32.00

24.60

264.80

1993

132.00

41.60

66.20

50.50

13.20

29.50

1.20

16.60

4.70

31.60

36.30

124.60

548.00

1994

131.90

153.10

85.50

26.00

1.30

9.60

3.50

0.00

15.70

1.90

10.10

83.50

522.10

1995

70.10

61.00

88.90

32.70

0.00

0.00

0.00

5.40

15.30

11.60

20.60

54.40

360.00

1996

69.80

152.80

102.80

44.60

0.00

0.00

0.00

15.20

8.50

4.10

22.30

60.10

480.20

MEDIA

95.12

96.36

75.61

29.84

10.11

8.90

4.31

10.62

17.08

23.17

20.43

47.86

439.42

CUADRO N 4.33
Se confirma con la hiptesis planteada un salto en el ao de 1974, para el cual se le realizara
el anlisis estadstico de los datos corregidos, es decir el anlisis de saltos y tendencias para
los periodos citados
NUMERO DE DATOS, PROMEDIO Y DESVIACION ESTANDAR PARA LOS PERIODOS DE
ANALISIS DE LA ESTACION PAMPAMARCA
PERIODO
1965
1974
1975
1996

N
120
264

MEDIA
36.62
36.62

DESV. ESTANDAR
43.71
43.71

S(x)2
1910.72
1910.72

ANALISIS DE SALTOS
CONSISTENCIA EN LA MEDIA
Sp

Sd

Tc

Alfa

G.L.

Tt (95%)
Tabla

Comparc.

Diferencia
Signific.

43.71

4.81

0.00

0.05

382

1.645

Tc < Tt

NO

CONSISTENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR

Si :

Entonces

Si :

Entonces

Fc
Calculado

Alfa

G.L.N.

G.L.D.

Ft (95%)
Tabla

Comparacin

Diferencia
Signific.

1.00

0.05

119

263

1.301

Fc < Ft

NO

ANALISIS DE TENDENCIA
TENDENCIA EN LA MEDIA
384
n =
36.62
Tm =
192.50
t
=
43.65
STm =
111.00
St
=
Tm*t = 7034.07
R

Tc
Calculado

G.L.

Tt (95%)
Tabla

Comparc.

Diferencia
Signific.

0.00

-0.001

36.85

0.06

382

1.645

Tc < Tt

No

TENDENCIA EN LA DESVIACION ESTANDAR


32
n =
41.76
Tm =
16.50
t
=
15.08
STm =
9.38
St
=
702.59
Tm*t =
R

Tc
Calculado

G.L.

Tt (95%)
Tabla

Comparc.

Diferencia
Signific.

0.10

0.153

39.23

0.54

30

1.697

Tc < Tt

No