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Equity

Commodity Weekly Update 16 Sept 2013


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Highlights Gold and silver futures posted the biggest weekly drops since June on speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut fiscal stimulus next week, while talks started on a plan for Syria to surrender its chemical weapons. Gold futures for December delivery fell 1.7 percent to settle at $1,308.60 on the Comex in New York. Earlier, the price touched $1,304.60, the lowest for a mostactive contract since Aug. 9. This week, the metal dropped 5.6 percent, the biggest decline since June 21. Silver futures for December delivery fell 1.9 percent to $21.72 an ounce on the Comex. Earlier, the price touched $21.42, the lowest since Aug. 14. This week, the price tumbled 9.1 percent, the most since June 21. Palladium futures for December delivery rose 0.9 percent to $699.10 an ounce. The metal climbed 0.3 percent this week. West Texas Intermediate crude capped its biggest weekly drop since July as the U.S. and Russia held talks on a plan for Syria to surrender chemical weapons to avert a strike that could stoke Middle East tensions. WTI for October delivery slid 39 cents, or 0.4 percent, to settle at $108.21 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices declined 2.1 percent this week, the most since the five days ended July 26. The volume of all futures traded was 26 percent less than the 100-day average. Weekly Movement Global Futures Crude Oil Natural Gas Heating Oil Gasoline RBOB Gold Silver Copper MCX Futures Crude Oil Natural Gas Copper Nickel Lead Zinc Aluminum Gold Silver NCDEX Futures Chana Soyabean Soyaoil Jeera Sugarm Coriander Chilli Global Markets Shanghai Nikkei HangSeng FTSE CAC DAX DJIA NASDAQ Price 108.21 3.68 311.37 276.96 1308.6 21.72 320.35 Price 6921 235.1 460.85 883.1 132.1 118.35 112.5 30128 50676 Price 3164 3477.5 660 13500 2993 5715 5002 Level Change -2.32 0.15 -5.00 -8.41 -77.9 -2.17 -5.80 Change -248 5.3 -15.4 -22.7 -7.10 -4.0 -4.3 -1756 -4306 Change Change (%) -2.10 4.25 -1.58 -2.95 -5.62 -9.08 -1.78 Change (%) -3.46 2.31 -3.23 -2.51 -5.10 -3.31 -3.68 -5.51 -7.83 Change(%) Weekly Chart (MCX): Natural Gas

27 -3 -16 -230 63 -15 -74

0.86 -0.09 -2.37 -1.68 2.10 -0.26 -1.46


Change (%) 4.50 3.92 1.30 0.56 1.61 2.82 3.04 1.70

Change Asian 2236.22 96.23 14,404.67 543.87 22915.28 294.08 European 6,583.80 36.47 4114.5 8,509.42 65.31 233.75

Weekly Technical View: Natural Gas Natural Gas future prices maintained positive trend during the week ending to Friday and close at weekly high level. 14 Day RSI prefers the firmness and remained in neutral region along with stochastic are favouring the bulls and moved in the neutral region. MACD is supporting the bulls as medium term and moving in the positive territory. Concisely, prices are likely to trade up in the coming trading week. Short Term Trend- Bullish Support & Resistance: S1 230 S2 227 PCP 235.10 R1 x 242 R2 248

US 15,376.06 453.56 3,722.18 62.17

Recommendation: Based on the charts above, we recommend buying at 232 level for the target of 242/248 Stop loss below 227 levels.

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India - National Statistical Data Particular Government Bond 10Y Currency Stock Market Interbank Rate GDP Growth Rate GDP GDP per capita GDP per capita PPP GDP Annual Growth Rate Inflation Rate Producer Prices Consumer Price Index (CPI) Export Prices GDP Deflator Import Prices Money Supply M2 Money Supply M3 Actual 8.50 63.50 19781.88 12.02 1.30 1841.70 1106.80 Previous 8.60 65.71 18979.76 11.26 0.80 1872.90 1085.73 Unit Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Billion USD USD Weekly Chart (MCX): Copper

3340.60

3277.01

USD Weekly Technical View: Copper On last week Copper closed at weekly low level and still looking weak. We recommend sell Copper for medium term with stop loss of 476. The immediate support appears around 454 levels breaching which the metal can reach 445 levels. Metals has strong resistance at 476 levels. Technical indicators on daily chart has generated fresh sell signal and indicate continues of downward movement for next week.

4.40 5.79 175.40

4.80 4.86 172.70

Percent Percent Index Points

235 223 159.30 243 19349.17 87696.97

231 196 146.50 215 19247.67 87567.88

Index Points Index Points

Short Term Trend- Bearish Index Points Index Points INR BIL INR BIL Support & Resistance: S1 S2 454 445

PCP 461

R1 468

R2 476

Recommendation: Based on the charts above, we recommend sell around 468 levels for the target of 454/445 and put Stop loss above 476 on closing basis levels.

Economic Round-Up Asian currencies had their best week in two months, led by Indias rupee, after U.S. jobs data tempered speculation the Federal Reserve will cut stimulus thats buoyed emerging markets. Elsewhere in Asia, South Koreas won strengthened 0.6 percent this week to 1,086.88 and Chinas yuan was little changed at 6.1188. Indonesias rupiah dropped for a fifth week, falling 2.1 percent to 11,410 and Vietnams dong climbed 0.2 percent to 21,115. Payrolls in the worlds largest economy climbed less than economists projected in August and gains for the previous two months were revised down, a Sept. 6 report showed, ahead of a Fed meeting that will discuss the $85 billion monthly debt-purchase program. President Barack Obama has delayed a decision on military strikes against Syria to pursue a Russian offer to get the regime to give up its chemical weapons. The rupee, which touched a record low of 68.845 per dollar on Aug. 28, completed its best week since October 2009 after Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan, who took office on Sept. 4, announced plans to strengthen the financial industry and boost dollar supply. Indias factory output climbed 2.6 percent in July from a year earlier after a revised 1.8 percent decline in June, a report showed Sept. 12. Consumer confidence in the U.S. declined in September to the lowest level since April, indicating household spending may take time to pick up. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment this month fell to 76.8 from August 82.1. A separate report from the Commerce Department showed retail sales rose less than forecast in August. The 0.2 percent increase was the smallest in four months and followed a revised 0.4 percent July gain that was bigger than previously estimated, the report said. Wholesale prices in the U.S. rose more than forecast in August, reflecting higher costs for food and some fuels. The 0.3 percent increase in the producer price index followed no change in the prior month, a Labor Department report showed in Washington.
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