170979330.

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DDI 2010

1 Israeli Strikes Answers

Israeli Strikes Answers............................................................................................................................................1 Notes........................................................................................................................................................................2 Iran Prolif Impact.....................................................................................................................................................4 Israeli Strike Good-Heg...........................................................................................................................................5 Israeli Strike Good-Obligation.................................................................................................................................6 Israel Strikes Good AT: Massive Damage...............................................................................................................7 Israel Strike Good AT: Iran Wins/Reject Israeli Authors........................................................................................8 Israeli Strikes Good AT: Iranian Retaliation...........................................................................................................9 Israeli Strike Uniquness-Wont Happen................................................................................................................10

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DDI 2010

1 Notes
This should be pretty self explanatory, it lets you impact turn the bejesus out of the Israeli strikes DA, 99% of the time they will not be ready. All the authors seem to be Israeli neocons, so think of a Jewish Khalilzad and thats whos writing this stuff. Have fun!!

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DDI 2010

1
Israeli Strikes Good-Iran Prolif Isreali strike on Iran forces the international community to stop Iranian prolif Ron Tira, reservist in the Israeli Air Forces Campaign Planning Department 7/10 (Strategic Assessment Vol. 13 No. 1 A Military
Attack on Iran? Considerations for Israeli Decision Making) http://kingsofwar.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/tira-iran.pdf Attacking Iranian nuclear installations would demonstrate to the international community and the United States that Israel is credible and determined in its claim that it cannot accept a nuclear Iran, and that Israel is willing to assume serious risks and pay a heavy price in order to prevent Irans nuclearization. Should Israel demonstrate that it indeed views a nuclear Iran as an existential threat, that this is not simply a hollow slogan, and that it is committed to preventing the nuclearization of Iran even at the cost of a massive avalanche of criticism, the international community will have to take this into account. Because of the prevailing understandable doubts regarding Israels credibility and determination on the matter, the attack would be a new factor that would have to be considered and might perhaps yield the desired international process. It is also possible that in order to demonstrate determination, decisiveness, and tenacity, it would be necessary for Israel to engage in more than just a handful of pinpoint attacks and undertake an ongoing campaign, despite international pressures to cease.

Initiating conflict forces the international community to halt Iranian prolif-empirically proven by the Irael- Egypt war Ron Tira, reservist in the Israeli Air Forces Campaign Planning Department 7/10 (Strategic Assessment Vol. 13 No. 1 A Military
Attack on Iran? Considerations for Israeli Decision Making) http://kingsofwar.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/tira-iran.pdf Creating desirable post-attack processes is not impossible and to an extent resembles the Egyptian attack on Israel in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. There too, the attack was not designed to attain Egypts strategic goal directly. Rather, its purpose was to create the conditions for the United States to push Israel into withdrawing from the Sinai, following Egypts demonstration to the United States that Israels continued presence in Sinai presented significant risks for the US, and the demonstration to the international community that the situation created in 1967 had left Egypt with no choice but to go to war. The Egyptian attack merely served as a catalyst and created the context for setting an international process in motion. If so, the question is whether the relevant staffs and headquarters in Israel know how to set in motion and steer international processes in this manner and how precisely to affect the political post-attack trends.

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DDI 2010

1 Iran Prolif Impact

Iranian proliferation causes runaway prolif and nuclear war Stanley Kurtz, senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, 8/28/06, Our Fallout-Shelter Future, National Review Online,
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OWU4MDMwNmU5MTI5NGYzN2FmODg5NmYyMWQ4YjM3OTU= Proliferation optimists, on the other hand, see reasons for hope in the record of nuclear peace during the Cold War. While granting the risks, proliferation optimists point out that the very horror of the nuclear option tends, in practice, to keep the peace. Without choosing between hawkish proliferation pessimists and dovish proliferation optimists, Rosen simply asks how we ought to act in a post-proliferation world. Rosen assumes (rightly I believe) that proliferation is unlikely to stop with Iran. Once Iran gets the bomb, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are likely to develop their own nuclear weapons, for selfprotection, and so as not to allow Iran to take de facto cultural-political control of the Muslim world. (I think youve got to at least add Egypt to this list.) With three, four, or more nuclear states in the Muslim Middle East, what becomes of deterrence? A key to deterrence during the Cold War was our ability to know who had hit whom. With a small number of geographically separated nuclear states, and with the big opponents training satellites and specialized advance-guard radar emplacements on each other, it was relatively easy to know where a missile had come from. But what if a nuclear missile is launched at the United States from somewhere in a fully nuclearized Middle East, in the middle of a war in which, say, Saudi Arabia and Iran are already lobbing conventional missiles at one another? Would we know who had attacked us? Could we actually drop a retaliatory nuclear bomb on someone without being absolutely certain? And as Rosen asks, What if the nuclear blow was delivered against us by an airplane or a cruise missile? It might be almost impossible to trace the attack back to its source with certainty, especially in the midst of an ongoing conventional conflict. More Terror Were familiar with the horror scenario of a Muslim state passing a nuclear bomb to terrorists for use against an American city. But imagine the same scenario in a multi-polar Muslim nuclear world. With several Muslim countries in possession of the bomb, it would be extremely difficult to trace the state source of a nuclear terror strike. In fact, this very difficulty would encourage states (or ill-controlled elements within nuclear states like Pakistans intelligence services or Irans Revolutionary Guards) to pass nukes to terrorists. The tougher it is to trace the source of a weapon, the easier it is to give the weapon away. In short, nuclear proliferation to multiple Muslim states greatly increases the chances of a nuclear terror strike. Right now, the Indians and Pakistanis enjoy an apparently stable nuclear stand-off. Both countries have established basic deterrence, channels of communication, and have also eschewed a potentially destabilizing nuclear arms race. Attacks by Kashmiri militants in 2001 may have pushed India and Pakistan close to the nuclear brink. Yet since then, precisely because of the danger, the two countries seem to have established a clear, deterrence-based understanding. The 2001 crisis gives fuel to proliferation pessimists, while the current stability encourages proliferation optimists. Rosen points out, however, that a multi-polar nuclear Middle East is unlikely to follow the South Asian model. Deep mutual suspicion between an expansionist, apocalyptic, Shiite Iran, secular Turkey, and the Sunni Saudis and Egyptians (not to mention Israel) is likely to fuel a dangerous multi-pronged nuclear arms race. Larger arsenals mean more chance of a weapon being slipped to terrorists. The collapse of the worlds non-proliferation regime also raises the chances that nuclearization will spread to Asian powers like Taiwan and Japan. And of course, possession of nuclear weapons is likely to embolden Iran, especially in the transitional period before the Saudis develop weapons of their own. Like Saddam, Iran may be tempted to take control of Kuwaits oil wealth, on the assumption that the United States will not dare risk a nuclear confrontation by escalating the conflict. If the proliferation optimists are right, then once the Saudis get nukes, Iran would be far less likely to make a move on nearby Kuwait. On the other hand, to the extent that we do see conventional war in a nuclearized Middle East, the losers will be sorely tempted to cancel out their defeat with a nuclear strike. There may have been nuclear peace during the Cold War, but there were also many hot proxy wars. If conventional wars break out in a nuclearized Middle East, it may be very difficult to stop them from escalating into nuclear confrontations.

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DDI 2010

1 Israeli Strike Good-Heg

Isreali strikes key to US heg- Iran nuclearization deteriorates American influence in the Middle East Ron Tira, reservist in the Israeli Air Forces Campaign Planning Department 7/10 (Strategic Assessment Vol. 13 No. 1 A Military
Attack on Iran? Considerations for Israeli Decision Making) http://kingsofwar.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/tira-iran.pdf What is the meaning of a nuclear Iran, and can Israel live with such a scenario? The ultimate threat, of course, is the use of nuclear weapons, and one should examine how to cope with such a threat outside the framework of this article. However, even without the use of nuclear weapons, the regional and global reality might undergo severe strategic shockwaves. 2 Technology and materials are liable to trickle into third party hands, including non-state entities. A regional nuclear arms race could develop and include regimes of questionable stability. The expansion of the nuclear club to include multiple actors, including nonstate or unstable state actors, creates the risk that it would be impossible to maintain mutual deterrence such as existed between the United States and the Soviet Union. The basic game theory assumptions of the nuclear rule of mutually assured destruction (MAD) would simply not be met. Iran is liable to gain hegemony and set the tone for the Near East. Empowered militarily and politically and virtually immune to direct military threats, Iran would become a dominant entity sending its tentacles forth from Iraq, through Bahrain, the Straits of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, Yemen, the Horn of Africa, Sudan, Gaza, and Lebanon, to Afghanistan and Central Asia. A nuclear Iran would be more daring in sub-nuclear confrontations and would be likely to offer its nuclear umbrella to its allies, such as Syria and Hizbollah. An empowered and decisive Iran would be liable to subvert moderate Arab and central Asian regimes, undermine existing Arab peace agreements with Israel, and foil future peace processes. A nuclear Iran that emerges in face of unequivocal American and Israeli opposition would undercut the strategic credibility of both nations, weaken their deterrence and power projection, hasten the waning of American influence in the region, and undermine the regional order we have known since 1991.

Hegemony solves global nuclear war Zalmay Khalilzad, 95 Rand Corporation. Losing the Moment? The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 18, No. 2, pg. 84,
Spring, Lexis

Under the third option, the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the rise of a global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future. On balance, this is the best long-term guiding principle and vision. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself, but because a world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. First, the global environment would be more open and more receptive to American values -- democracy, free markets, and the rule of law. Second, such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems, such as nuclear proliferation, threats of regional hegemony by renegade states, and low-level conflicts . Finally, U.S. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival, enabling the United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers, including a global nuclear exchange.

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DDI 2010

1 Israeli Strike Good-Obligation

Obligation to prevent Iranian proliferation Ron Tira, reservist in the Israeli Air Forces Campaign Planning Department 7/10 (Strategic Assessment Vol. 13 No. 1 A Military
Attack on Iran? Considerations for Israeli Decision Making) http://kingsofwar.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/tira-iran.pdf The responsibility of the Israeli prime minister and the minister of defense for a military action is not merely ministerial; it is substantive. Only they are capable of shaping and conducting a multidisciplinary strategy and achieving the critical synergy between military, clandestine, diplomatic, political, and economic efforts. Should the Israeli leaders decide to attack Iran, this would be much more than an operational move aimed at Iranian targets: it would be a political move addressed to the international community. When the landing gear of the returning airplanes touch down on the runways, perhaps one mission will have ended, but the main campaign will have only just begun. The importance of the attack lies not in its physical operational result, rather in demonstrating to the international community that this is an acute, burning, unavoidable problem, demanding direct, effective, and immediate action. The Israeli leadership would have to focus on the question of how to leverage the attack such that it would set in motion international follow-on processes that would stop a nuclear Iran and tap all possible assets, including Egyptian and Saudi Arabian interests. On the other hand, the leadership is also charged with the responsibility of minimizing Israels long range strategic damage and repelling dangerous post-attack trends, such as attempts to force Israel to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. These are the goods that the IDF alone cannot deliver; it is up to the political echelon to do so.

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DDI 2010

1 Israel Strikes Good AT: Massive Damage

Massive damage not necessary- political follow up is key Ron Tira, reservist in the Israeli Air Forces Campaign Planning Department 7/10 (Strategic Assessment Vol. 13 No. 1 A Military
Attack on Iran? Considerations for Israeli Decision Making) http://kingsofwar.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/tira-iran.pdf Thus the main value of an attack does not lie in the direct physical damage to the nuclear program, rather in the political follow-on trends necessary to realize the strategic goal. The leadership must focus on this point and assess whether or not it is capable of sketching a credible, serious scenario of how an attack would yield the desired political postattack process. Directing international processes is necessarily a complex and difficult endeavor, and has never proven to be one of Israels relative strengths. Worse still, given an American red light, the attack might be seen as illegitimate, and therefore the leadership would also have to be convinced that it could repel dangerous follow-on processes, such as the demand for a comprehensive, Middle East-wide nuclear disarmament.

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DDI 2010

1 Israel Strike Good AT: Iran Wins/Reject Israeli Authors

Outside perspectives cannot take into account the full extent of Israeli security ability only Israeli authors should be considered Thomas Rid, visiting scholar at the Shalem Center, 7/31/2010, Should Israel Strike Iran?,
http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2010/07/should-israel-strike-iran/ We dont have a proper national debate about strategy. The complaint seems universal. Ive heard it in America, in Britain, in France, in Germany, and elsewhere. But here in Israel that complaint is even louder. The IDF is known for its bitsuist culture, preferring doing over thinking. And Israeli academia, leaning far to the left so the clich shuns all things military like the devil runs from the holy water. Except, its not true. An impressive number of current and former officers write about strategy, academics too. In Hebrew as well as in English. And some are really impressive. Of course they have no shortage of questions to ponder. One of the most difficult questions facing the State of Israel today is Iran. Should the IAF strike Irans nuclear program or not? Now, many people outside Israel have very strong opinions about this question. So lets start with some humility: Iran has not repeatedly threatened to wipe New York off the map. Iran is not delivering advanced weaponry to terrorist organizations a few miles way from London. And Teheran is not training infiltrators to sneak into Paris to kidnap soldiers there. Israel has far higher stakes in this game than the rest of us. So what do the countrys most careful strategic thinkers say?

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DDI 2010

1 Israeli Strikes Good AT: Iranian Retaliation

And Iran couldnt even respond to the attack Thomas Rid, visiting scholar at the Shalem Center, 7/31/2010, Should Israel Strike Iran?,
http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2010/07/should-israel-strike-iran/

Militarily, Teherans potential seems to be overrated. Iran, apparently, has an outdated military with limited operational capabilities and middling missile and naval capabilities. Its indirect capabilities have been demonstrated by its proxies in Iraq and Lebanon. An attack would, Tira argues, undermine Irans shield of deterrence and expose the limitations of its military response, probably. He discusses possible response scenarios in some detail.

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DDI 2010

1 Israeli Strike Uniquness-Wont Happen

Israel wont strike Iran now or in the future Jonathan F. Keiler Author for the American Thinker 7/25/10 Surprise! Why An Israeli Strike on Iran is Unlikely
http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/07/surprise_why_an_israeli_strike.html If the Israelis were serious about attacking Iran, the best thing they could do now is stop talking about it. Indeed, ideally, the Israelis would appear accept the position that seems to be that of the United States under President Obama -- that a nuclear Iran is inevitable and manageable. Then maybe they could lull the Iranian leadership and military into complacency and hope to regain a bit of strategic surprise. But right now, with every eye trained on Israeli skies and the world expectantly awaiting an Israeli assault, the chances of Israeli success must be dramatically reduced, a fact not lost on Netanyahu and Barak. I don't pretend to know what Israel will do, and nobody would be happier to see a successful Israeli strike on Iran than me, but logic suggests that if the Israelis haven't done it yet, they probably never will. And Benjamin Netanyahu is no more likely to launch an attack than his predecessors, for the same set of complex reasons that they were restrained.

Israel wont strike Iran, no US support and opposition by Netanyahu World Tribune, only solely international US newspaper, 7/9/10 Obama expects 'no surprises': Israel won't strike Iran without
U.S. permission http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2010/ss_israel0634_07_09.asp The president, who has pursued a reconciliation policy with Teheran, said the strategic relationship between Israel and the United States would not allow for a unilateral Israeli strike, Middle East Newsline reported. "I think the relationship between Israel and the U.S. is sufficiently strong that neither of us try to surprise each other," Obama said. In 2010, the Obama administration, including Vice President Joseph Biden, warned Israel not to attack Iran. Netanyahu, who has urged the international community to intensify sanctions, has repeatedly assured that Israel was not planning an imminent strike on Iran. Since 2007, officials said, the United States has withheld military systems that could facilitate an Israeli air strike on Iran. The banned systems were said to have included air refueling, advanced reconnaissance and buster-bunker bombs, long requested by Israel.

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