In the logical sequencing of processes that define the phases of a PMLC, the Planning Process Group is the first

where a make-sense approach is demanded; these processes will plan the course of action required to achieve the goal of the project, suggest alternative approaches, schedules and resource requirements from which the best alternative can be selected (Wysocki, 2009 , p.112). Within the planning phase, estimating task duration is of essence for the correct estimate of the total duration of the project. Decomposing all the work required to complete a project into a hierarchy of activities and then refining these to a series of manageable tasks organized in a logical sequence constitutes the WBS, and it is at the lowest levels of this decomposition that estimates will be considered good enough to carry on with the planning phase. However, random variable factors such as workers skill levels, unexpected events, efficiency of workers time, mistakes and misunderstandings or common cause are inherent to the work performed on a task; therefore, estimating task duration is a challenging endeavor (Wysocki, 2009). To assist in producing task duration estimates with narrow variance, Wysocki (2009, p.149) describes six methods for estimating task duration, which are: Extrapolating Based on Similarity to Other Activities

Activities completed in the past for other similar projects and that can be considered analogous in fact to those whose duration needs to be estimated in the present will provide reliable estimates as long as the project team members preparing the estimates have the needed expertise (PMBOK, 2008, p.149). At first, this appears to be a simple technique, whose iteration should carry no difficult or major costs; however, variable factors operating might affect its accuracy. Taking a new call center project as an example, it is insufficient to estimate the average call duration based on recollections of previous similar projects as the variable factors will certainly operate differently, like type of caller, language supported, worker knowledge of call handling and many others. Studying Historical Data

Unlike the previous method, this method is based on historical recorded data of estimated and actual task duration (Wysocki, 2009, p.149); the more extensive and critical the database is, the highest the accuracy level when producing the estimates (PMBOK, 2008, p.150). In the new call center project example, this would mean to search in the database for specific call duration averages of similar projects, breaking down the data by specific categories, such as new worker, experienced worker, type of support, country, language skills levels, etc. In my field of work, this is the technique most widely used to more accurately estimate task duration. Seeking Expert Advice

Over the past five years, there has been an increase in demands from call center clients to implement cloud-based solutions for their accounts, mainly because of their flexibility, scalability and substantially reduced costs. Given that this technology was to be used for the first time, experts, developers and other experienced non-competitors where the main source of information on estimates-related recommendations. Outside expert judgment is a reliable source of recommendation when the knowledge needed cannot be found within the organization (Wysocki, 2009, p.150). Applying the Delphi Technique

When there is no reliable source of judgment, this systematic technique allows reaching consensus by isolating and summarizing the knowledge of a group. Participants are briefed about the task duration that needs to be estimated and are asked to guess their forecast; after usually three rounds of summarizing and then refining the results, consensus on a value is reached (Wysocki, 2009, p.151). It is important to note that this seemingly condensed method helps reducing bias in the data obtained and keeps anyone person from influencing the result (PMBOK, 2008, p.432).

Applying the Three-Point Technique

This technique takes a probabilities approach to estimation based on similarity to other activities and is useful when having to estimate task duration with very limited information, mainly guessed forecast and recollection of members of similar projects for which there is no historical database from where to pull the values. The three-point estimation refers to the three task duration estimates scenarios to be polled: optimistic time, pessimistic time and most-likely time (Wysocki, 2009, p.152). According to the PMBOK (2008, p.451), this technique improves the accuracy in duration estimates when the intrinsic activity value is uncertain. Applying the Wide-Band Delphi Technique

The Wide-Band Delphi estimation technique is a probabilities and consensus-based approach to produce reliable task duration estimates. As in the Delphi method, participants are asked to guess their optimistic time, pessimistic time and most-likely time forecasts; after iteration of this step, estimates are summarized and compiled (Wysocki, 2009, p.152). Again, this method ensures that the estimates produced are fair and unbiased. Reference List Project Management Institute Inc. (2008) A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge th (PMBOK Guide). 4 ed. Pennsylvania: Project Management Institute Inc. Wysocki, R.K. (2009) How to Plan a Project. In: Wysocki, R.K. Effective Project Management: Traditional, Agile, Extreme. Indianapolis: Wiley Publishing, pp.109-193.