Brazil Industrial Production and Manufacturing PMI

by Eduardo Petazze
Last updated: February 2, 2016
The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was up from 43.8 in January 2016 to 47.4 from 45.6 n December 2015
In December 2015, the manufacturing output fell by 0.83% MoM (-11.91% YoY)
2015 a contraction of the Brazilian manufacturing industry was 9.88%, led by the automotive industry, with a contraction of 25.91% is estimated.
2016 Brazil's industrial landscape is bleak, due to lower domestic demand .

Links:
IBGE, press release by December 2015
Full report December 2015 - pdf, 53 pages
PMI Manufacturing January 2016 pdf, 3 pages
The following is an overview of Brazil's manufacturing production and the PMI indicator, including a full projection for 2016

2012=100
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Own estimate
2012=100
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
Latest data
Own estimate
2012=100
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Latest data
Own estimate

NSA
Industry Mining Mfg. Vehicle Industry
92.5
86.7 92.8
91.4 -7.12%
101.9
98.4 102.2
113.0 10.22%
102.4 100.5 102.5
115.6
0.41%
100.0 100.0 100.0
100.0 -2.30%
102.1
96.4 102.8
109.6
2.07%
99.0 102.9 98.5
91.2 -3.02%
90.8 106.9 88.8
67.6 -8.27%
80.6 103.2 77.7
42.5 -11.29%

Annual Industrial Production Index 2012=100

YoY
SA
YoY
Mfg
Mining
Mfg.
Vehicle Industry Mining Mfg. Vehicle PMI Industry Mining
Mfg.
-8.86% -7.03% -12.09%
92.3
86.6 92.7
91.3
-6.98% -8.70% -6.93%
13.47% 10.04% 23.62%
102.0
98.4 102.2
113.1
10.44% 13.56% 10.27%
2.15% 0.29%
2.31%
102.5 100.4 102.6
115.8 49.6
0.51% 2.08% 0.42%
-0.50% -2.39% -13.46%
99.8
99.8 99.8
100.0 50.1 -2.66% -0.68% -2.77%
-3.63% 2.80%
9.58%
102.0
96.3 102.7
109.6 50.6
2.25% -3.43% 2.94%
6.79% -4.17% -16.75%
99.1 102.9 98.6
91.3 49.6 -2.87% 6.77% -3.99%
3.86% -9.88% -25.91%
90.9 107.0 88.9
67.5 46.5 -8.23% 3.99% -9.85%
-3.43% -12.46% -37.07%
80.6 103.2 77.7
42.5 45.7 -11.41% -3.51% -12.57%

Vehicle
-11.99%
23.84%
2.38%
-13.66%
9.65%
-16.66%
-26.10%
-36.99%

NSA
Mining Mfg. Vehicle
93.5 94.2
97.3
99.9 97.2
88.1
108.7 105.1
93.9
109.5 97.6
85.6
104.2 86.8
77.0
109.3 89.2
70.1
112.4 93.5
66.7
101.5 85.5
56.5
98.7 75.7
52.0
105.3 78.0
45.9
108.3 82.3
41.1
100.5 74.8
31.2

Industry
0.68%
-5.15%
-3.36%
-3.89%
-5.60%
-6.19%
-9.29%
-11.76%
-11.82%
-11.37%
-10.84%
-11.15%

Quarterly Industrial Production Index 2012=100

YoY
SA
QoQ
Mfg
Mining
Mfg.
Vehicle Industry Mining Mfg. Vehicle PMI Industry Mining
Mfg.
4.16% 0.32% -6.23%
101.0
98.2 101.2
98.7 50.6
0.03% -0.20% -0.30%
5.86% -6.42% -25.69%
98.8 100.7 98.6
88.5 48.9 -2.18% 2.48% -2.57%
8.78% -4.74% -19.74%
98.7 105.0 98.3
90.0 49.5 -0.10% 4.34% -0.34%
8.02% -5.40% -13.51%
97.8 107.5 96.4
88.2 49.3 -0.98% 2.35% -1.90%
11.48% -7.79% -20.89%
95.1 109.6 93.0
77.8 48.8 -2.69% 1.92% -3.49%
9.41% -8.23% -20.42%
92.8 110.2 90.6
70.5 46.1 -2.45% 0.55% -2.65%
3.47% -10.98% -28.97%
89.6 108.6 87.5
63.5 46.7 -3.41% -1.42% -3.35%
-7.31% -12.36% -33.93%
86.2
99.5 84.5
58.1 44.5 -3.87% -8.35% -3.50%
-5.28% -12.82% -32.42%
84.2 103.9 81.4
53.4 47.1 -2.28% 4.39% -3.63%
-3.66% -12.55% -34.60%
81.9 106.3 78.8
45.8 45.8 -2.73% 2.31% -3.15%
-3.71% -11.97% -38.43%
79.9 104.4 77.0
39.1 45.4 -2.48% -1.76% -2.37%
-0.99% -12.51% -44.87%
76.3
98.2 73.7
31.9 44.5 -4.51% -5.97% -4.24%

Vehicle
-4.02%
-10.33%
1.69%
-2.04%
-11.76%
-9.34%
-9.92%
-8.50%
-8.20%
-14.18%
-14.70%
-18.34%

Industry
-4.75%
-9.21%
-2.98%
-7.40%
-8.46%
-2.53%
-8.72%
-8.37%
-10.80%
-11.07%
-12.42%
-11.86%
-11.56%
-11.22%
-12.61%

Monthly Industrial Production Index 2012=100

IPI, NSA YoY
SA
IPI, SA MoM
Mfg
Mining
Mfg.
Vehicle Industry Mining Mfg. Vehicle PMI Industry Mining
Mfg.
Vehicle
11.64% -7.05% -18.58%
96.2 109.1 94.2
80.9 50.7
0.10% 1.11% -0.21% -0.37%
12.90% -11.83% -30.57%
95.0 109.7 92.8
78.3 49.6 -1.25% 0.55% -1.49% -3.21%
10.05% -4.62% -12.77%
94.2 109.9 92.1
74.2 46.2 -0.84% 0.18% -0.75% -5.24%
11.37% -9.79% -23.23%
92.9 110.9 90.7
72.2 46.0 -1.38% 0.91% -1.52% -2.70%
7.98% -10.53% -25.24%
93.2 110.1 90.9
71.5 45.9
0.32% -0.72% 0.22% -0.97%
9.00% -4.14% -10.43%
92.3 109.5 90.1
67.9 46.5 -0.97% -0.54% -0.88% -5.03%
3.91% -10.37% -20.09%
90.7 107.9 88.7
69.5 47.2 -1.73% -1.46% -1.55% 2.36%
3.70% -10.02% -26.38%
89.9 108.5 87.7
62.7 45.8 -0.88% 0.56% -1.13% -9.78%
2.79% -12.54% -39.36%
88.3 109.4 86.2
58.4 47.0 -1.78% 0.83% -1.71% -6.86%
-0.62% -12.40% -34.88%
87.7 107.4 85.7
56.7 44.1 -0.68% -1.83% -0.58% -2.91%
-10.03% -12.71% -35.03%
85.7
95.6 84.2
57.5 43.8 -2.28% -10.99% -1.75% 1.41%
-11.48% -11.91% -30.92%
85.1
95.6 83.5
60.2 45.6 -0.70% 0.00% -0.83% 4.70%
-6.98% -12.14% -30.71%
84.8 101.6 82.3
55.6 47.4 -0.35% 6.28% -1.44% -7.64%
-4.90% -12.20% -32.08%
83.4 104.4 80.4
51.4 46.7 -1.65% 2.76% -2.31% -7.55%
-3.91% -14.01% -34.19%
84.4 105.7 81.5
53.1 47.3
1.20% 1.25% 1.37% 3.31%

Industry
94.1
97.5
105.4
98.9
88.8
91.5
95.6
87.3
78.3
81.1
85.3
77.6

NSA
Industry Mining Mfg. Vehicle
88.2 107.4 85.7
73.6
83.8
98.0 82.0
72.0
94.4 107.3 92.8
85.4
88.9 106.8 86.6
73.7
93.1 111.0 90.9
71.4
92.5 110.2 90.2
65.3
95.3 111.6 93.3
71.6
97.4 115.0 95.2
68.1
94.2 110.7 92.1
60.4
97.2 111.5 95.4
65.9
87.4
95.1 86.5
58.8
77.3
97.9 74.7
44.9
78.0
99.9 75.3
51.0
74.4
93.2 72.0
48.9
82.5 103.1 79.8
56.2

Also see:
Markit Brazil Services PMI December 2015 pdf, 3 pages
Statistics of the Brazilian auto industry - January 2016 report pdf, 12 pages (ANFAVEA)
In December 2015 vehicle production was 30% lower than in December 2014, accumulating a decrease of 22.8% in the full year.
Brasil Perspectivas Econmicas para el 2015 (Scribd)