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• Today’s reversal in
WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING overseas markets were
Equities are selling off with the global MSCI index off nearly 1.0% and the losses more words than deeds
broadly based (Europe off 1.8%, Japan down 1.0%, Hong Kong losing 2.1%). • The bond market survived
Bonds are rallying 6 - 7 basis points here and across the pond. Commodities the supply onslaught of
are facing a heavy round of profit-taking — gold down to a three-week low, last week … not to
copper slipping more than 3.0%, oil slipping 2.0%. The U.S. dollar is mention Russia’s
comments as well
strengthening right across the board too — back below 1.40 on the Euro and the
CAD is back above the 1.13 mark. The Asian FX complex and the commodity- • The Fed, the lender of first
based currencies are taking it on the chin. and last resort … and
everything in between
THERE WERE NO DATA RELEASES TODAY, SO WHAT HAS CAUSED THIS • Some fascinating tidbits in
REVERSAL? the University of Michigan
More words, than deeds. survey
First, the G8 meeting ended with emphasis being placed on exit strategies that • The 55+ age cohort — in
involve stimulus withdrawal. Investors have no clue how the global economy or search of safe income
the financial markets can operate on their own two feet, so investors are now
voting with their pocketbooks. A future without a government subsidy doesn’t
look so promising for all these once-successful beta trades.
Second, the Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin went on the wires claiming
that Russia sees the U.S. fundamentals as being solid and that there is no
replacement for the dollar. Spasiba.
Hans Heinrich, the President of Germany’s Chamber of Commerce, also had the
temerity to tell the Telegraph that funding conditions for German business was
actually tougher now than it was at the peak in credit spreads. Now who wants
to hear that? We’re amazed that the comments were published.
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June 15, 2009 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
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June 15, 2009 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
What was a lingering theme during the 1930s, as is the case today, was
frugality; living below one’s means after more than a decade of living above
one’s means (the 1990s and early 2000’s were the new 1920s as the savings
rate dipped into negative terrain during both go-go periods). Have a look at A
New Spirit of Sobriety Takes Hold in the special insert section of the weekend
Financial Times and the story behind why it is that consumer discretionary items
like Swiss watches are down 24% on a YoY basis — the first time this has ever
happened.
The other policy proposal being pursued by President Obama is this $4,500
‘cash for clunker’ strategy working its way through Congress to support the auto
industry at the taxpayer’s expense — yet again, the government refuses to
accept the new reality of consumer frugality and savings, which is really quite
regretful.
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June 15, 2009 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
The question is how Mr. Obama can preach fiscal rectitude and at the same One of the dirty little
time continue following tax policies that fuel conspicuous consumption at great secrets in the U of M
expense to the pubic purse. survey was
respondent’s opinions
As an aside, one of the dirty little secrets in the University of Michigan (U of M) about government
consumer sentiment survey was that “opinions about government policy” fell policy … down sharply
sharply in June, to 93 from 108 in May — tied for the sharpest decline on record. in June
The gap between the bond bears and bulls widened out to 43 percentage points
— the last time we had a number like this was back in August 2007, and
unbeknownst to many back then as the stock market was heading to new all-
time highs, the yield on the 10-year note was 4.8% and rallied 100 bps to 3.8%.
The backup in mortgage rates has bitten into homebuying intentions, which
slipped to 152 in June from 162 in May. Home price declines may help out
affordability ratios, but they also scare away buyers seeking future capital gains
— the share of prospective buyers in the market because real estate is seen as a
good investment was all the way down to historic lows of 1% in June. For autos,
it was a different story; car buying intentions rose for the third month in a row, to
140 in June from 132 in May (best level since December 2006). One would
think that auto plans would be getting a lift from the looming ‘cash for clunkers’
rebates but the subindex monitoring demand for ‘new fuel efficient models’
actually was zero last month. The share saying that interest rates were
attractive also fell to 13% from 19%. So what was the kicker? Price deflation —
the share saying lower prices rose to 65% from 60% in May and 57% in April.
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June 15, 2009 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
We thought of that when we came across this headline in the weekend Wall
Street Journal — Building a Portfolio That Will Stay Afloat When Inflation Returns The only segment of
(page B6). In fact, ‘reflation trades’ have become the flavor du jour in virtually the population that is
every business column and economic and strategy publication we come across gaining jobs is the 55-
these days. Has there ever been a more crowded trade? Something else is plus age category
indeed going to happen. It’s called, welcome back, 2002.
27,500 147,000
146,000
27,000
145,000
26,500
144,000
26,000
143,000
Total Civilian
25,500 Employment of 55+ Employment
Age Group (rhs) 142,000
(lhs)
25,000
141,000
24,500 140,000
Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09
Moreover, the number of 55 year olds and up who have two jobs or more has
risen 1.1% in the last year, the only age cohort to have managed to gain any
multiple jobs at all. Remarkable. These folks have seen their wealth get
destroyed by two bubble-busts less than seven years apart — the Nasdaq nest
egg back in 2001 and the 5,000 square foot McMansion in 2007. Both bubbles
ended in tears … and so close together.
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June 15, 2009 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
The boomer population saw the beloved S&P 500 from 1,520 on September 1,
2000, to 776 on October 9, 2002; and then from 1,565 on October 9, 2007, to Boomers have seen
666 on March 9, 2009. While the S&P 500 has managed to climb back to 950, their wealth get
who cares? It’s still no higher today than it was in July 1997. July 1997! The destroyed by two
median age of the boomer back then was 40; today’s it is 52, with no increase bubble-busts less than
at all in their aggregate equity wealth in 12 years. Hopefully the boomers had a seven-years apart
portfolio with relative dividend-payers because that was the only source of total
return for everyone. Outside of that, cash was a much better attractive class.
Over a 12-year span; and a span that included two historic price peaks!
But what this new demographic data from the employment data is telling us is
that there is a new drive for income ... both in the labour market, and in the
market for securities. In fact, this drive for income is also showing up in many
other places too — like reverse mortgages, for instance. In April alone, the
government insured some 11,600 reverse mortgages — the most since the
government-backed program began in 1990 — as seniors move to secure
income from whatever home equity they have left in their real estate assets.
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June 15, 2009 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
ABOUT US
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June 15, 2009 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE
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