The following is a summary of the NAFEMS presentation.

We would be pleased to present this information at your offices, focusing on your areas of interest. Please "contact us:/contact to arrange a meeting. Reliability tools range in complexity from simple approaches to managing product reliability data and the application of sophisticated simulation methods on large systems with complex duty cycles. This presentation explores how gathering enough of the right kind of data and applying it in an intelligent way can reduce risk, not only in product design, but also in managing the associated supply chain and in the Whole Life Management of products. This is a demonstration of how sparse data gathered from previous or similar products, such as field/warranty reports, engineering testing data and supplier data sheets, as well as FEA and CFDmodelling, can inform and positively influence new product design processes from concept stage onwards. Reliability methods covered include: FRACAS (Failure Reporting and Corrective Action Systems) FMECA (Failure Mode, Effect and Criticality Analysis) DoE (Design of Experiments) RGA (Reliability Growth Analysis) Life Data Analysis (e.g. Weibull Analysis) RBDs (Reliability Block Diagrams)

No amount of good

manufacturing can correct a poor design, However, poor manufacturing can ruin the best designs. The three principal requirements for achieving a reliable product are: The design must have margin with respect to the stresses it is subjected to during production and operational use. The production process must be stable and completely documented. Any variations should be considered experimental until proven. There must be an effective feedback and corrective action system which can identify and resolve problems quickly in engineering, production and in the field. A structured reliability engineering strategy should include the following aspects, depending on the application: Review & Control Design Reviews FRACAS/DRACAS Subcontractor Review Design & Analysis Part Selection & Control (including de-rating) Computer Aided Engineering Tools (FEA/CFD) FMECA/FTA System Prediction & Allocation (RBDs) Quality Function Deployment (QFD) Critical Item Analysis Thermal/Vibration Analysis & Management Predicting Effects of Storage, Handling etc Life Data Analysis (e.g. Weibull) Test & Evaluation Design-of-Experiments Reliability Qualification Testing Maintainability Demonstration Testing Accelerated Life Testing Production Reliability Acceptance Tests Reliability Growth Testing

QFD Phases

Failure Mode, Effect & Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is a well established process to identify risks but still not implemented optimally in many companies. FMECA can be described as: The study of the potential failures that might occur in any part of a system to determine the probable effect of each on all other parts of the system and on probable operational success, the results of which are ranked in order of seriousness Ref: BS 4778 (1983) Glossary of terms used in quality assurance

FMECA is a technique to achieve high reliability It can be a significant amount of work It is a team activity with an identified person held responsible It allows us to identify the vital few from the trivial many It is a continuous improvement process and a live document Typical FMECA

Possible Outcomes of FMECA

-Change design (introduce system redundancy, reconfigure) -Introduce specific tests -Focus quality assurance on key areas -Use alternative materials, components

-Change operating conditions (e.g. duty cycles to avoid early wear-out/fatigue failures) -Adapt operating procedures (e.g. allowed temperature/load range) -Perform design reviews -Closely monitor problem areas during testing and use -Exclude liability (for specific applications)

Variation is inherent in all manufacturing processes and environments; the same mathematics applies to tolerance clashes in components assembly. However the further into the tails of a distribution, the greater the uncertainty. Extreme values are rare therefore the distribution may be poorly defined. In engineering we are usually concerned about the behaviour of variation at the extremes high stresses, high/low temperatures, high pressure, weak componentsthere is always uncertainty!! Most engineering distributions are not NORMAL even if they approximate it, the tails are truncated or parts are selected out (e.g. burn-in). However, in critical stress applications e.g. Aircraft or bridges "there must be a factor of safety (say 2) between the maximum expected stress and the lower 3s value of the expected strength.

A unifying concept in reliability engineering, the bath-tub curve plots the TIME DEPENDANT failure rate sometimes called HAZARD Rate (It is the probability of failing in the next time interval at a certain age given you have survived to that age). There are three regions, each region has distinct failure modes Wear-in = Infant Mortality concept of Burn-in for electronics

The Weibull distribution models each region. Beta is the SHAPE PARAMETER Design of Experiments (DoE) DoE is a statistical tool that aims to maximise insight using minimum resources by systematic testing Follows on naturally from FMECA analysis Experimental observations recorded in predetermined pattern (the design in DoE) Analysis of response of system to changing factors simultaneously Goal is usually to find optimum value of chosen factors To increase output To reduce variation

To reduce cost Compare different designs Identify most important factors affecting performance Can incorporate Physical Testing and Simulation Using DoE & FMECA with FEA/CFD A fast way of generating many different design options Without re-tooling Using parametric models Can do What if scenarios Can be used in concept stage forward Understand critical features affecting performance Multi-variable optimisation Reduces potential number of prototypes Can explore the boundary of the design space Useful for developing (Accelerated) test plans Accelerated life models usually consist of: A life distribution at each stress level (from Weibull analysis) A Life-stress relationship (from physics of failure or a statistical model)

Use engineering knowledge to choose a life-stress model Need enough data to find our model parameters Important role for simulation

Gives early insight into impact of operating environment on product life and can indicate if current design is fit for purpose. Provides input to appropriate specifications and applications More than just an MTBF number

A reliability block diagram is a graphical representation of how the components/ subsystems of a system are reliability-wise connected. Blocks represent the components of the system. Each block has failure and repair characteristics Lines connect the blocks. The structure of these connections affects the reliability of the system.

RBD applications to product design: Establishing specification boundaries Establishing subsystem and component requirements Design optimisation (architecture and components) Scenario modelling (failure modes, loads, duty cycle, procurement / running costs) Vendor appraisal and design selection Spares provisioning

Dependability covers Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Project Management issues. Dependability assurance requires systematic and rigorous effort throughout the product/process lifecycle and needs an honest dialogue between the Purchaser, Supplier and End User. Strategies to reduce risk; Quantify risk () Learn new tools for solving old problems Use Computer Aided Engineering tools as early as possible (even in concept stage) Define the operating environment, mission profile and expected level of reliability (& maintainability) and communicate openly with suppliers. Tailor processes to critical design objectives Understand and disposition all failures in product development cycle never ignore outliers! Reduce operational stresses Reduce production variation Foster a culture of reliability improvement and risk management (in-house and with suppliers)