Process Capability Analysis

Process Capability Indices: Pp, Ppk Observed DPM, Expected DPM

Topics
I. II.

Concept of Process Capability Commonly Used Process Capability Indices

Exclude Centering: Pp Include Centering: Ppk

III.

Interpreting Capability Indices

Identifying Mean Vs. Variation Concerns

IV. V. VI.

Process Capability and One-Sided Specifications Process Capability Indices and DPM Sigma Level
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I. Concept of Process Capability

measure how well the output of a process meets specification limits. Provide tool to help assess whether defects are related to mean or variation concerns.

DPM=6000 LSL USL

DPM=6000 LSL USL

Mean = 20 S = 1.82

Mean = 23 S = 0.8

Target, Tolerances & Specifications

Target (nominal) - desired value of a characteristic. Tolerance - specifies an allowable deviation relative to a target value where a characteristic is acceptable. Example: Order Time Specification: 20 +/- 5 days

Target ___ Tolerance width ___ LSL ___ USL ___

One Sided-Specification (LSL or USL) time < 25 days; fee > $700 Upper Specification Limit (USL) Target

Lower Specification Limit (LSL)

-t

+t
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Three Point Estimates

If you do not have specifications, you need to:

Estimate them by asking Process Owners or Customers (for their expectations). Sample Questions for Process Owner: What is your estimate of the time the process will take? Target What are the minimum and the maximum times you expect? LSL and USL

Note: it may take some analysis to finalize meaningful specifications.

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Assessing Process Capability

Compare: Mean Target, and Variation - Tolerance Widths Consider some possible conditions: Mean On or Off Target Variation (Range) Low or high relative to tolerance width

LSL

USL

Worst Condition (Mean Off Target, High Dispersion)

LSL

USL

LSL

USL

LSL

USL

(On Target, High Dispersion)

(Low Dispersion, Off Target)

Ideal (On Target, Low Dispersion)

II. Process Capability Indices

Common Indices Used in Process Capability

Pp, Cp Ppk, Cpk

Key Issues: Exclude or include process centering (mean).

Exclude: Pp, Cp Include: Ppk, Cpk

Method of estimating variation Pp, Ppk ~ use S - Sample Std Deviation

Note: Cp, Cpk, ~ use inherent common cause or within subgroup variation from Statistical Process Control (SPC) chart methods (covered in Black Belt Course)

Focus of this Course: Pp and Ppk

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Pp Index

Pp measures the relationship between the tolerance width and the predicted range of variation (estimated by 6S). Pp does not consider the location of the mean and therefore represents the potential of the process to meet specifications if the mean were on Target.

Pp =

Tolerance Width USL - LSL = 6 6 sigma

For Pp, estimate using sample std deviation, S

Sample Standard Deviation In Excel: S =stdev(array)
S =

(x

x i

i =1

n 1
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Pp Examples

For the same Pp, the # of defects may vary significantly.

Case 1 2 LSL 15 15 T 20 20 USL Mean StDev Pp 25 25 20.5 22.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 Estimated DPM 91 6,210

Case 1: LSL

USL

Case 2:

LSL

USL

defects

defects
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Ppk Index

Ppk takes into account any difference between the target and the process mean (X). X LSL USL X Ppk L = Ppk U = 3 3 estimate s using sample std deviation, S

Ppk = min (PpkL, PpkU)

LSL USL

PpkL Target

PpkU X = Mean
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Pp and Ppk Calculation Exercise

Suppose Order Time is 20 +/- 5 days

Sample 50 Orders: Mean = 20.5; S = 1.2

Compute Pp and Ppk?

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Difference Between Pp & Ppk

By including how close the mean is to target, Ppk provides a better relationship to defects (DPM).
Case 1 2 LSL 15 15 T 20 20 USL Mean StDev Pp 25 25 20.5 22.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 Ppk 1.3 0.8 Estimated DPM 91 6,210

Case 1: LSL

USL

Case 2:

LSL

USL

defects

defects
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Pp and Ppk Criteria

Desired Pp and Ppk values may vary by industry / application. (Most industries require at least a Pp and Ppk > 1.33) Some general goals are as follows:

Criteria Pp (or Cp) Ppk (or Cpk) min(

Formula

Moderate Goals Pp > 1.67 Ppk > 1.33

Six Sigma Goals Pp > 2.0 Ppk > 1.5

U SL LSL 6
USL X X LSL , ) 3 3

*Assumes 2-Sided Specification

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III. Interpreting Pp and Ppk

By definition: Ppk <= Pp (assumes 2-sided spec)

If mean = Target, then Ppk = Pp If mean not equal Target, then Ppk < Pp

Thus, Pp provides an estimate of potential capability if the process mean were on target.

Useful in determining if defects are related to mean off target and/or high variation.

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Pp and Ppk Examples

Objective: Ppk > 1.67 and Pp > 1.67 For each of the following, assess if likely have a mean and/or variation problem:

Pp = 0.4 and Ppk = 0.3 M or V Pp = 0.8 and Ppk = -0.2 M or V Pp = 2.0 and Ppk = 0.2 M or V Pp = 1.5 and Ppk = 0.5 M or V
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Summary of Combinations

Combinations: 1. Mean and Variation Problem High Dispersion, Off Target ~ Low Pp, Ppk << Pp 2. Variation Problem High Dispersion, On Target ~ Low Pp, Pp ~ Ppk 3. Mean Problem Low Dispersion, Off Target ~ High Pp, Ppk << Pp 4. Conformance to Goals Low Dispersion, On Target ~ High Pp, Pp ~ Ppk << indicates much less than

Identify the combination Matching Picture Below ?

LSL

USL

LSL

USL

LSL

USL

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IV. Capability Indices for One-Side Specifications

For some processes, we may only have one specification limit.

Order Time < 25 days (USL = 25 days) Fee > $700 (LSL = 700)

Here, we only compute Ppk. If USL only: If LSL only:

USL X Ppk = 3

Ppk =

X LSL 3
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For Ppk, estimate using sample standard deviation, S

Process Improvement

For one-sided specification, we may improve Ppk (and reduce defects) by either shifting mean away from specification limit and/or reduce standard deviation.
Current State Ppk = 0.8 Mean = 22; S = 1.2 Future State

USL
1) Shift Mean 18 Same Sigma (S=1.2)

USL=25 -OR defects USL

Ppk = 1.9
2) Reduce S 0.52 Same Mean (22)

Ppk = 1.9

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V. Process Capability and DPM

We often relate process capability with Observed or Expected DPM. Observed DPM based on number of samples actually observed outside the specification limits divided by total number of samples. Expected DPM based on fitting sample data to a distribution and determining the probability of a defect. To calculate Expected DPMs, we need Specification Limits, Mean, Standard Deviation, and an Assumed Distribution (Normal) to find the probability of a defect. DPM = Probability of a Defect * 1 Million Understanding how to compute Probability is a Black Belt Skill. Still, Green Belts should be able to use software to estimate DPMs. QE Tools Process Capability Summary DPM Calculator, or Process Capability Summary
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DPM Calculator Normal

QETools Process Capability Summary DPM Calculator Enter the mean, standard deviation, and specifications in the yellow boxes to get DPM.
Mean = 20.5 and Standard Deviation = 1.2 Specification: 20 +/- 5

(use if you only have summary statistics)

DPM Calculator Assuming Normal Distribution

DPM given Average, Sigma, USL, LSL insert values in white boxes. Average Standard Deviation USL Target LSL DPM DPM > USL DPM < LSL DPM Total 20.5 1.2 25 20 15 Probability Defect 0.000088 0.000002 0.000091 Pp Ppk Predicted DPM Quality Yield Upper Specification Limit Nominal Value (optional) Lower Specification Limit DPM 88.4 2.3 90.7 1.39 1.25 90.7 99.99%

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DPM Example
Average Standard Deviation 20.5 1.2 25 20 15 Probability Defect 0.000088 0.000002 0.000091 Pp Ppk Predicted DPM Quality Yield Upper Specification Limit Nominal Value (optional) Lower Specification Limit DPM 88.4 2.3 90.7 1.39 1.25 90.7 99.99%

Suppose mean shifts from 20.5 to 22 days with the same S = 1.2. Is this a mean and/or variation concern?

USL Target LSL DPM DPM > USL DPM < LSL DPM Total

Average Standard Deviation USL Target LSL DPM DPM > USL DPM < LSL DPM Total

22 1.2 25 20 15 Probability Defect 0.006210 0.000000 0.006210 Pp Ppk Predicted DPM Quality Yield Upper Specification Limit Nominal Value (optional) Lower Specification Limit DPM 6,209.7 0.0 6,209.7 1.39 0.83 6,209.7 99.38% 21

Hint: compare Pp, Ppk, DPM with prior example

Process Capability - QETools

QE tools may be used to compute process capability (Pp/ Ppk), Observed DPM, and Expected DPM. Two Options:

Process Capability Summary Normal (use if data are normal) Process Capability Summary Non-Normal (use if data are skewed right or follow an exponential distribution).

Note: if data do not follow these patterns, use Observed DPM (e.g., if bi-modal).

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Process Capability Normal

Suppose you have wait time with a USL = 40. See wait-time-B in excel file: capability.xls

Note: One-Sided Specification

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Sample Results: Wait-Time

QETools Process Capability Summary Normal
Process Capability Graphical Summary Wait-Time-B

DATA are Close to Normal 347K DPM

Summary Statistics
USL LSL N Mean Sigma (R-bar) Sigma (Overall) Range 40.00 70 38.21 4.28 4.55 22.00

Histogram
USL

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 26.90 29.10 31.30 33.50 35.70 37.90 40.10 42.30 44.50 46.70 48.90 51.10

Process Capability
Cp Cpk Pp Ppk 0.14 0.13

Exp.Overall Performance
DPM < LSL DPM > USL DPM Total DPM < LSL DPM > USL DPM Observed 347,424.0 347,424.0

Observed Performance
342,857.1 342,857.1

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Non-Normal Distributions

For non-normal processes (e.g., skewed right distributions), you should either:

Use non-normal distribution (e.g., weibull distribution in QETools) Use the % Observed DPM method (i.e., # of observed defects / # samples). Careful with interpreting % observed with small sample sizes (e.g., N < 30)

USL

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Process Capability Non-normal (Skew Right)

Data on order fill time for shipping industrial PCs.

Goal: 20 +/- 5 days Is this a Mean Off Target or Variation Problem?

Weibull
LSL 25

Assumed Distribution:

Histogram
USL

Process Capability
Pp Ppk 0.39 0.24

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USL LSL N Mean St Dev

25.00 15.00 155 20.61 4.51

Exp.Overall Performance
DPM < LSL DPM > USL DPM Total DPM < LSL DPM > USL DPM Observed 102,638.7 149,455.2 252,093.8 58,064.5 154,838.7 212,903.2

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Observed Performance

0
11 .2 0 12 .8 0 14 .4 0 16 .0 0 17 .6 0 19 .2 0 20 .8 0 22 .4 0 24 .0 0 25 .6 0 27 .2 0 28 .8 0 30 .4 0 32 .0 0 33 .6 0 35 .2 0 36 .8 0 38 .4 0

Results: QETools >> Process Capability Summary Non Normal

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Process Capability Six Sigma Project

Measure Phase assess current state: Pp, Ppk, DPM Analyze Phase identified sources of variation:

in-house delays related to incomplete order information and components not in stock.

Improve Phase created new systems to enter new order information and manage inventory.

Re-Assess Capability After Improvements are made.

Sample Mean Sigma Pp Ppk Actual DPM

Current State 155 20.6 4.51 0.39 0.24 212,903

Post Improvements 55 20.4 2.50 0.66 0.61 48,270

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VI. Sigma Level Converters

Given DPM or DPMO estimate, we may equate to a sigma level (this is an index scale). Some sample sigma levels are: Yield 30.9% 69.2% 93.3% 99.4% 99.98% 99.9997% DPM (DPMO) 690,000 308,537 66,807 6,210 230 3.4 Sigma Level 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

DPMO Defects per million opportunity

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Sigma Level QE Tools

QE Tools will compute Sigma Level given: Yield DPM or DPMO level

Sigma Level from Quality Yield (Yield = 1 - % defective) Quality Yield

0.9999966

% Non-Conforming 0.0000034

DPM 3.4

Z 4.50

Sigma Level 6.00

Sigma Level for DPM for Non Centered Process - Assumes 1.5 sigma shift (Normal Distribution DPM 6210 Yield 99.38% Prob 0.0062100 Z 2.4999809 Sigma Level 4.00

*QETools Process Capability Summary Sigma Level

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Summary

Process capability indices (and Sigma Level) are additional performance measures used in Six Sigma projects.

Pp and Ppk together help identify if defects are related to Mean and/or Variation problems. For example,

Mean off target/low variation (Pp high, Ppk low); Mean on-target/high variation (Pp and Ppk low, Pp=Ppk); Mean off target and high variation (Pp/Ppk low, Ppk << Pp).

Process capability indices often are computed with DPM.

Note: should consider the distribution to decide which DPM estimate to use (Observed, Exp-Normal, Expected-Non-normal).

Process capability is an effective metric for communicating differences before and after an improvement.