Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
27 August 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Unde r V a lue d ......................................................................6
Chemicals
Telecommunication Services
Under Valued ................................................................................... 15
Transport
Under Valued ....................................................................................... 15
Utilities
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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27 August 2013
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
27 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
447.70
300.80
455.40
Neutral
Buy
Target
612
Beta
0.71
CHEMRING GROUP
319.80
217.00
370.50
Neutral
Buy
373
0.66
COBHAM
289.90
190.10
307.70
Neutral
Neutral
302
0.85
MEGGITT
538.50
366.20
562.00
Neutral
Neutral
529
1.28
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1138.00
799.39
1240.00
Neutral
Neutral
1140
1.00
SMITHS GROUP
1320.00
1011.00
1397.00
Neutral
Sell
1161
0.77
1910.00
1505.00
1981.00
Neutral
Sell
1720
0.52
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
346.10
201.00
354.00
Neutral
Neutral
341
1.97
INCHCAPE
624.00
353.30
645.00
Neutral
Neutral
650
1.42
LOOKERS
124.25
68.75
128.50
Neutral
Sell
114
1.22
33.00
13.50
33.00
Neutral
Buy
45
1.09
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
286.85
181.25
333.85
Neutral
Sell
-840
1.95
694.70
541.00
769.90
Neutral
Buy
864
1.18
74.79
32.89
77.14
Neutral
Sell
1.86
344.30
220.70
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-116
1.39
STANDARD CHARTERED
1492.50
1364.00
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3424
1.64
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
564.00
415.00
588.50
Neutral
Sell
495
0.58
DIAGEO
2005.00
1672.50
2136.50
Sell
Neutral
2193
0.54
SABMILLER
3104.00
2599.00
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
4247
0.91
BARR (AG)
Target
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALENT
337.10
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Buy
464
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
324.20
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
572
1.12
CARCLO
360.75
342.75
501.00
Neutral
Sell
143
0.74
2677.00
2164.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3403
1.05
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
267.70
204.20
275.00
Neutral
Buy
323
1.07
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2854.00
2190.00
2887.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4381
1.43
VICTREX
1627.00
1309.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1415
1.16
SYNTHOMER
230.90
141.80
230.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
405
1.10
ZOTEFOAMS
198.00
182.50
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
306
1.00
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
116.00
76.00
118.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
279
Beta
BALFOUR BEATTY
253.60
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1133
0.83
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
314.80
149.30
355.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
614
1.70
1.02
0.56
BELLWAY
1404.00
869.00
1502.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2887
2236.00
1387.00
2340.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3506
0.58
BOOT (HENRY)
198.50
123.50
201.00
Sell
Strong Buy
368
0.75
1.11
793.00
473.20
851.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1450
CARILLION
289.30
244.80
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1558
1.09
CLARKE (T)
62.00
40.00
62.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
389
0.80
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
GALLIFORD TRY
283.00
226.25
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1143
0.52
1405.00
1090.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
909
1.04
990.50
621.00
1020.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2981
0.97
KELLER
1113.00
491.00
1161.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2408
1.29
KIER GROUP
1491.00
1106.00
1528.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5390
1.01
73.38
50.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
227
1.06
1.33
150.50
81.00
155.75
Neutral
Buy
205
677.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4576
0.71
17.50
11.25
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
61
1.05
NORCROS
1133.00
648.87
1305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2016
1.02
REDROW
PERSIMMON
230.00
142.60
255.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
459
0.90
SIG
182.00
98.05
188.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
532
1.70
46.00
43.00
287.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
4263
0.89
106.10
50.25
113.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
229
1.61
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
1613.00
1013.00
1713.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4454
1.95
WOLSELEY
3354.00
2504.56
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6055
1.35
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1362.00
999.50
1365.00
Neutral
Sell
1096
0.69
684.00
522.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
919
1.14
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
131.75
105.50
137.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
285
1.27
INVENSYS
495.00
217.33
509.50
Neutral
Sell
284
1.40
LAIRD
216.40
171.10
249.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
460
2.10
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1531.00
1209.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1346
1.11
RENISHAW
1712.00
1494.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2163
1.29
SPECTRIS
2260.00
1549.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2932
1.53
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
102.50
65.00
303.67
Neutral
Sell
-456
0.77
TT ELECTRONICS
186.50
114.00
191.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
445
1.61
XAAR
845.00
227.00
898.00
Neutral
Sell
436
1.06
DIALIGHT
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Target
Beta
27 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 7 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
113.25
54.25
114.75
Sell
Buy
144
1.19
BODYCOTE
640.00
337.60
644.00
Neutral
Neutral
631
1.60
CASTINGS
417.50
291.00
443.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
670
0.95
VESUVIUS
477.90
263.19
480.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1164
2.23
FENNER
355.00
305.90
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
555
1.45
HALMA
552.00
405.80
578.00
Neutral
Sell
409
0.78
440.00
339.25
480.00
Neutral
Buy
541
1.32
1504.00
837.50
1504.00
Sell
Strong Buy
4449
1.41
311.40
220.30
318.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
507
1.90
2767.00
2157.00
3037.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5234
1.00
288.40
185.90
288.40
Sell
Sell
247
1.66
0.79
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
55.00
35.40
76.91
Neutral
Sell
46
SPIRAX-SARCO
3041.00
1932.53
3041.00
Neutral
Sell
2122
0.84
VITEC GROUP
622.00
559.00
740.00
Neutral
Sell
479
1.37
WEIR GROUP
2218.00
1566.00
2474.00
Neutral
Neutral
2189
1.44
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
407.10
392.10
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
778
0.44
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
292.80
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Buy
392
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
398.20
321.90
398.50
Neutral
Buy
480
0.56
TESCO
372.50
307.90
387.75
Neutral
Sell
198
0.68
82.25
24.00
100.50
Neutral
Sell
53
0.79
THORNTONS
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1887.00
1267.00
2031.00
Neutral
Sell
1673
0.61
CRANSWICK
1131.00
732.50
1178.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1801
0.33
DAIRY CREST
520.00
332.90
528.50
Neutral
Sell
391
0.91
DEVRO
328.00
289.90
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
517
0.37
PREMIER FOODS
124.00
54.50
125.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
257
1.26
821.50
634.50
883.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1368
0.67
2549.00
2235.00
2885.00
Neutral
Sell
2213
0.50
UNILEVER (UK)
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Page 8 of 17
Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
26.63
22.13
29.50
Neutral
Buy
39
0.66
577.00
266.40
577.00
Strong Sell
Sell
466
0.51
1584.00
1000.00
1593.00
Neutral
Sell
1254
1.29
665.00
585.00
701.50
Neutral
Sell
355
0.90
42.82
17.00
46.33
Neutral
Buy
48
1.46
238.00
102.00
239.25
Neutral
Sell
64
1.06
31.63
21.25
34.00
Sell
Strong Buy
112
1.01
HALFORDS GROUP
382.80
234.50
405.20
Neutral
Buy
521
0.71
JD SPORTS FASHION
937.50
653.00
963.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1782
0.49
DARTY
Target
Beta
83.00
39.00
83.00
Neutral
Buy
117
1.23
KINGFISHER
393.40
262.20
404.90
Neutral
Buy
454
0.91
471.60
352.70
488.80
Neutral
Buy
651
0.60
63.25
44.75
71.00
Neutral
Buy
75
0.97
439.00
202.00
492.75
Neutral
Sell
166
0.38
NEXT
4916.00
3320.00
5030.00
Neutral
Buy
5448
0.61
TED BAKER
1935.00
899.00
1973.00
Neutral
Sell
985
0.56
82.50
46.00
89.75
Neutral
Sell
77
1.51
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Health
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
134.00
129.50
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
115
0.39
CONSORT MEDICAL
834.50
660.50
839.00
Neutral
Sell
579
0.35
OPTOS
156.50
106.75
222.75
Neutral
Neutral
172
1.17
786.00
638.00
800.00
Neutral
Sell
672
0.45
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
785.00
601.00
794.50
Neutral
Neutral
769
0.42
HEADLAM GROUP
380.00
295.00
415.00
Neutral
Sell
327
0.88
82.50
55.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
111
0.70
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
890.00
528.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
288
0.73
CSR
519.50
308.10
607.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1577
1.13
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
65.00
30.75
83.25
Neutral
Sell
56
0.94
278.60
235.10
624.00
Neutral
Buy
328
1.04
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
129.90
118.00
170.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
248
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
159.75
140.00
226.25
Neutral
Sell
-200
0.94
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Page 9 of 17
Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1295.00
1019.00
1416.00
Neutral
Sell
-413
0.52
AMLIN
392.00
364.10
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1519
0.40
BEAZLEY
203.60
162.20
242.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
944
0.50
CATLIN GROUP
477.20
450.90
552.50
Neutral
Neutral
468
0.22
HISCOX
637.00
459.54
660.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1891
0.46
949.50
723.00
949.50
Neutral
Buy
1228
0.32
123.50
107.70
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
718
0.39
NOVAE GROUP
508.50
345.00
515.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3391
0.38
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2511.00
2092.00
2628.00
Neutral
Buy
3543
0.95
ENTERPRISE INNS
142.90
56.75
152.20
Neutral
Sell
110
1.64
TUI TRAVEL
357.40
208.20
401.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
728
0.96
920.00
700.50
969.00
Neutral
Sell
610
0.26
GREENE KING
818.50
556.50
897.50
Neutral
Sell
626
0.88
LADBROKES
193.20
169.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
261
0.87
1865.00
1524.00
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1650
1.10
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
563.50
456.00
582.50
Neutral
Neutral
586
1.34
425.10
262.70
430.40
Sell
Sell
276
1.00
132.30
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
63
1.24
12.25
6.15
13.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
73
1.16
157.90
128.60
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
566
0.96
0.70
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
537.50
322.00
570.00
Neutral
Sell
388
WETHERSPOON (JD)
746.00
447.90
767.00
Neutral
Sell
692
0.57
WHITBREAD
3155.00
2099.00
3303.00
Neutral
Sell
2178
0.97
WILLIAM HILL
433.70
271.02
494.50
Neutral
Sell
256
0.80
MARSTON'S
158.30
110.00
164.50
Neutral
Sell
16
1.16
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
401.50
294.10
404.90
Neutral
Sell
366
1.18
CHESNARA
260.00
176.50
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
521
0.64
198.30
128.00
201.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
492
1.69
OLD MUTUAL
189.10
165.10
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
394
1.52
PRUDENTIAL
1142.00
770.00
1232.00
Neutral
Neutral
1182
1.66
612.50
336.20
641.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
6649
0.84
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
27 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
142.00
102.00
146.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
922
0.42
835.00
709.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1056
0.47
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
Target
Beta
39.50
31.00
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-42
1.06
803.50
451.25
835.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3556
1.07
1180.00
747.50
1180.00
Sell
Strong Buy
5566
0.96
INFORMA
518.00
380.50
541.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
327
1.63
ITE GROUP
289.30
183.50
307.40
Neutral
Buy
201
1.44
ITV
165.50
82.00
168.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1369
1.46
1.20
JOHNSTON PRESS
16.00
5.20
19.00
Neutral
Buy
720
1330.00
1119.00
1350.00
Neutral
Neutral
309
0.65
99.00
42.75
99.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2283
0.86
289.00
269.00
289.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
732
0.13
35.39
26.85
36.45
Neutral
Strong Buy
346
0.52
STV GROUP
202.50
81.50
202.50
Neutral
Sell
240
0.82
ST.IVES
165.00
74.88
170.00
Neutral
Sell
159
1.48
TRINITY MIRROR
115.25
36.75
122.25
Neutral
Sell
-289
1.59
UBM
701.50
636.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1421
1.33
189.50
103.62
196.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1390
0.85
1221.00
788.00
1221.00
Sell
Sell
-827
1.27
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1524.50
1207.00
2084.00
Neutral
Sell
1306
1.84
201.00
161.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
218
1.07
ANTOFAGASTA
915.00
784.50
1381.00
Neutral
Neutral
879
1.42
1909.50
1666.50
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3081
1.48
GLENCORE XSTRATA
317.00
256.85
397.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
1062
#NA
LONMIN
356.80
240.84
380.10
Sell
Buy
454
2.08
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
5125.00
3972.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2991
0.47
RIO TINTO
3069.00
2582.00
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2558
1.53
861.00
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2920
2.24
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
VEDANTA RESOURCES
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1182.00
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
891
0.84
BP
442.95
416.60
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1002
1.02
CAIRN ENERGY
272.80
251.80
297.00
Neutral
Sell
-33
1.33
8.65
7.15
12.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
115
0.84
870.00
716.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
577
1.35
69.25
48.50
87.00
Neutral
Sell
-58
1.35
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
Beta
344.10
321.30
400.20
Neutral
Buy
403
1.45
2148.00
2098.00
2365.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8201
0.83
372.20
319.90
404.30
Neutral
Buy
444
0.53
1027.00
977.00
1468.00
Neutral
Sell
689
1.05
822.50
720.50
915.50
Neutral
Sell
724
1.44
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
27 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
129.25
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
268
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
407.00
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
337
0.70
4499.00
3560.00
4950.00
Neutral
Neutral
4553
0.30
Target
Under Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.48
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
-3
0.91
3246.50
2792.50
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
9080
0.51
BTG
389.80
300.30
397.90
Neutral
Sell
216
0.73
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
708.50
492.00
780.00
Neutral
Buy
937
0.18
1673.00
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Buy
1943
0.52
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
1.41
1.33
2.80
Buy
Sell
-2
0.57
1.33
1.05
12.75
Neutral
Sell
-6
0.93
2425.00
1727.00
2442.00
Neutral
Sell
1549
0.70
SKYEPHARMA
86.25
43.50
100.50
Neutral
Buy
103
0.66
VERNALIS
25.13
19.38
27.38
Neutral
Sell
11
0.86
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Under Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
407.70
300.00
445.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
656
1.18
BRITISH LAND
571.00
506.00
658.00
Neutral
Buy
770
1.05
2355.00
1890.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4503
1.23
532.00
434.40
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1041
1.06
HAMMERSON
492.30
448.60
554.00
Neutral
Neutral
511
1.24
DERWENT LONDON
Target
Beta
INTU PROPERTIES
312.90
300.60
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
502
1.13
902.00
761.50
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1619
1.15
25.25
24.25
40.75
Buy
Sell
-148
0.81
LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY
110.40
103.20
121.40
Neutral
Sell
-4
0.33
MCKAY SECURITIES
155.00
131.50
155.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
248
0.66
415.25
325.00
454.50
Neutral
Sell
231
0.39
341.00
312.50
363.53
Neutral
Sell
94
0.30
0.64
43.75
29.02
45.00
Neutral
Sell
-359
SEGRO
REDEFINE INTL.REIT
302.00
221.60
313.60
Neutral
Sell
-256
1.81
SHAFTESBURY
612.50
516.00
668.00
Neutral
Buy
787
1.03
199.88
177.00
223.00
Neutral
Sell
10
1.04
0.80
0.70
2.25
Neutral
Sell
-951
0.93
465.90
250.75
475.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1155
1.01
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
www.intellisys.uk.com
27 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
324.60
210.50
365.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
746
41.00
22.75
41.25
Neutral
Sell
-51
0.64
CLS HOLDINGS
1176.00
656.50
1260.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2937
0.75
DAEJAN HOLDINGS
4034.00
2706.00
4179.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7126
0.48
190.00
143.00
209.00
Neutral
Neutral
194
0.96
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
Target
Beta
0.70
GRAINGER
177.50
97.45
187.50
Neutral
Sell
110
1.57
HELICAL BAR
277.00
178.00
302.50
Neutral
Sell
202
0.82
28.50
21.00
29.75
Sell
Strong Buy
230
0.64
6137.50
4350.00
6512.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
14542
0.69
88.00
51.00
92.00
Sell
Sell
-198
1.04
RAVEN RUSSIA
68.50
61.50
79.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
210
1.48
600.50
386.70
664.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2150
0.74
90.50
71.50
90.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
384
0.33
SAVILLS
SMART (J)
ST MODWEN PROPS.
311.50
193.10
333.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
620
1.60
UNITE GROUP
369.00
221.50
403.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1655
1.77
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
111.90
109.60
162.00
Neutral
Buy
125
0.67
2384.00
1776.97
2588.15
Neutral
Sell
1484
1.49
COMPUTACENTER
530.00
333.29
564.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1143
0.89
KOFAX
345.00
260.75
358.75
Neutral
Sell
302
1.06
AVEVA GROUP
INNOVATION GROUP
Target
Beta
29.25
19.50
30.25
Neutral
Sell
21
0.78
786.00
541.11
812.50
Neutral
Buy
902
0.82
PHOENIX IT GROUP
150.00
130.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
240
0.69
82.00
64.00
85.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
235
0.54
2130.00
1275.00
2156.00
Neutral
Neutral
2165
0.79
355.20
289.36
368.18
Neutral
Buy
435
0.69
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
366.70
274.60
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1279
1.11
BREWIN DOLPHIN
271.90
144.60
283.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
678
0.70
9075.00
8000.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
99339
0.84
470.50
260.00
472.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1487
0.96
0.67
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
CHARLES TAYLOR
Target
Beta
192.50
155.00
195.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1683
1058.00
771.00
1107.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5028
0.86
105.80
88.90
110.40
Neutral
Sell
69
0.84
5.16
0.55
5.18
Sell
Sell
-138
0.63
HENDERSON GROUP
HELPHIRE GROUP
176.80
101.70
180.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
845
1.46
ICAP
379.10
280.80
406.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
844
1.04
448.00
280.00
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2342
1.69
INVESTEC
428.90
358.40
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1748
1.57
1602.00
930.00
1622.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5771
1.11
86.40
71.30
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-5195
1.36
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1609.00
1208.00
1691.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5711
0.73
SCHRODERS
2405.00
1407.00
2560.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8516
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1912.00
1131.00
2000.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
11194
1.28
www.intellisys.uk.com
27 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
266.50
157.75
266.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
870
0.88
AGGREKO
1607.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4272
1.13
AMEC
1086.00
965.50
1172.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3365
1.09
677.50
273.20
730.00
Neutral
Buy
1009
1.65
1162.00
897.00
1209.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2657
0.49
560.50
364.00
604.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2393
0.80
1354.00
1009.00
1409.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2829
0.53
UK MAIL GROUP
634.00
233.50
645.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1687
0.42
CAPITA
989.00
713.00
1057.00
Neutral
Sell
211
0.54
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
57.00
34.16
68.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
488
0.81
COMPASS GROUP
874.50
671.50
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2012
0.74
BERENDSEN
879.00
524.50
879.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3412
1.03
DE LA RUE
1000.00
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Buy
1445
#NA
DIGNITY
1494.00
899.82
1567.68
Neutral
Strong Buy
3198
0.24
DIPLOMA
642.00
420.10
642.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1546
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
267.50
200.00
278.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
941
1.01
ESSENTRA PLC
793.50
500.50
830.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1406
1.16
G4S
245.80
207.50
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
899
0.53
HAYS
104.80
68.20
107.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
465
1.06
HOMESERVE
250.20
185.60
293.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
988
0.88
INTERSERVE
573.50
349.10
573.50
Sell
Strong Buy
3742
1.26
3247.00
2697.00
3453.00
Neutral
Buy
4857
0.80
50.00
28.00
50.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
117
1.11
0.63
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
26.75
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
220
MENZIES (JOHN)
757.50
573.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1818
1.38
471.20
346.40
474.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
854
1.41
MITIE GROUP
280.00
248.00
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1075
0.52
37.00
37.00
144.50
Buy
Strong Buy
720
0.28
OFFICE2OFFICE
1093.00
700.50
1185.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2234
0.73
PREMIER FARNELL
PAYPOINT
225.90
165.50
236.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
733
1.42
REGUS
185.40
96.00
193.40
Neutral
Sell
56
1.40
RENTOKIL INITIAL
102.00
76.10
103.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
273
1.26
REXAM
498.50
420.70
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1800
0.85
RICARDO
477.75
340.00
485.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1696
0.89
ROBERT WALTERS
280.25
176.25
285.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1033
1.19
RPC GROUP
469.40
378.00
477.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1547
0.80
RPS GROUP
255.50
195.50
274.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1016
1.51
SERCO GROUP
621.50
535.00
683.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2407
0.59
SHANKS GROUP
92.50
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
272
1.49
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
58.25
23.50
64.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
313
1.20
195.50
88.50
202.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
571
0.65
62.25
40.50
62.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
337
0.91
435.00
295.25
435.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2335
0.81
99.13
48.50
101.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
628
0.80
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
332.30
212.50
344.00
Neutral
Buy
420
0.88
40.64
33.55
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
79
0.68
699.50
542.50
749.00
Neutral
Sell
261
0.55
86.95
68.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
119
1.21
1385.00
814.00
1399.00
Neutral
Sell
813
0.05
191.75
154.45
200.20
Neutral
Sell
105
0.51
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
27 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
307.10
187.20
307.50
Neutral
Sell
234
1.24
452.00
350.00
460.00
Neutral
Buy
598
1.05
CLARKSON
1950.00
1150.00
1950.00
Sell
Sell
1346
0.85
EASYJET
1265.00
530.00
1448.00
Neutral
Sell
871
0.76
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
117.30
92.00
212.39
Neutral
Strong Buy
283
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1098.00
699.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
794
0.74
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1500.00
1220.00
1595.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2747
0.99
NATIONAL EXPRESS
263.00
164.50
263.10
Neutral
Neutral
250
1.40
NORTHGATE
389.75
219.00
395.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
647
1.34
STAGECOACH GROUP
321.20
265.90
337.60
Neutral
Buy
447
0.98
87.50
43.75
87.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
238
0.96
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
390.00
310.80
394.90
Neutral
Buy
577
0.52
NATIONAL GRID
742.50
678.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
969
0.46
PENNON GROUP
683.00
598.00
749.50
Neutral
Sell
622
0.62
SSE
1555.00
1353.00
1676.00
Neutral
Buy
2258
0.41
SEVERN TRENT
1718.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1486
0.36
690.50
647.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
741
0.48
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
27 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
DISCLAIMER
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys is the trading name of Intellisys
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intellisys is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of quoted company
shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to present an
objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial sector or
stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and proprietary
systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to be
accurate but Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of
the source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely
upon the Intellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice
specific to their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this
report. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or
completeness or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted to the accuracy or
sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. In
no event will Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited, Intellisys or any of its officers, employees or agents be
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