Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
23 August 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Unde r V a lue d ......................................................................6
Chemicals
Telecommunication Services
Over Valued ................................................................................... 15
Transport
Under Valued ....................................................................................... 15
Utilities
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
www.intellisys.uk.com
23 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
www.intellisys.uk.com
23 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
23 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
www.intellisys.uk.com
23 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 5 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
444.70
300.80
455.40
Neutral
Buy
Target
610
Beta
0.71
CHEMRING GROUP
320.20
217.00
370.50
Neutral
Buy
373
0.66
COBHAM
290.80
190.10
307.70
Neutral
Neutral
301
0.85
MEGGITT
538.50
366.20
562.00
Neutral
Neutral
528
1.28
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1132.00
799.39
1240.00
Neutral
Neutral
1135
1.00
SMITHS GROUP
1320.00
1011.00
1397.00
Neutral
Sell
1157
0.77
1892.00
1505.00
1981.00
Neutral
Sell
1716
0.52
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
345.30
201.00
354.00
Neutral
Neutral
340
1.97
INCHCAPE
625.00
353.30
645.00
Neutral
Neutral
647
1.42
LOOKERS
124.00
68.75
128.50
Neutral
Sell
114
1.22
32.00
13.50
32.00
Neutral
Buy
45
1.09
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
284.70
181.25
333.85
Neutral
Sell
-841
1.95
692.50
541.00
769.90
Neutral
Buy
861
1.18
74.64
32.89
77.14
Neutral
Sell
1.86
343.00
220.70
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-118
1.39
STANDARD CHARTERED
1485.50
1364.00
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3418
1.64
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
567.00
415.00
588.50
Neutral
Sell
496
0.58
DIAGEO
2008.50
1672.50
2136.50
Sell
Neutral
2194
0.54
SABMILLER
3042.50
2599.00
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
4208
0.91
BARR (AG)
Target
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALENT
340.00
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Buy
462
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
322.50
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
570
1.12
CARCLO
362.50
342.75
501.00
Neutral
Sell
144
0.74
2567.00
2164.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3338
1.05
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
262.20
204.20
275.00
Neutral
Buy
320
1.07
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2814.00
2190.00
2887.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4353
1.43
VICTREX
1624.00
1309.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1390
1.16
SYNTHOMER
230.00
141.80
230.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
403
1.10
ZOTEFOAMS
198.00
182.50
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
305
1.00
www.intellisys.uk.com
23 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 6 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
116.00
76.00
118.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
277
Beta
BALFOUR BEATTY
252.00
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1121
0.83
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
307.50
149.30
355.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
611
1.70
1.02
0.56
BELLWAY
1395.00
869.00
1502.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2867
2187.00
1387.00
2340.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3478
0.58
BOOT (HENRY)
186.50
123.50
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
365
0.75
1.11
783.50
473.20
851.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1440
CARILLION
289.80
244.80
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1547
1.09
CLARKE (T)
59.38
40.00
62.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
387
0.80
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
GALLIFORD TRY
290.00
225.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1138
0.52
1403.00
1090.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
895
1.04
978.50
621.00
1020.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2961
0.97
KELLER
1085.00
491.00
1161.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2391
1.29
KIER GROUP
1484.00
1106.00
1528.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5359
1.01
70.75
50.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
226
1.06
1.33
152.00
81.00
155.75
Neutral
Buy
204
673.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4546
0.71
17.50
11.25
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
61
1.05
NORCROS
1140.00
647.47
1305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2002
1.02
REDROW
PERSIMMON
226.50
140.00
255.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
456
0.90
SIG
182.50
98.05
188.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
529
1.70
46.00
43.00
287.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
4242
0.89
104.30
50.25
113.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
228
1.61
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
1589.00
1013.00
1713.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4423
1.95
WOLSELEY
3330.00
2504.56
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6018
1.35
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1344.00
999.50
1365.00
Neutral
Sell
1086
0.69
683.00
522.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
911
1.14
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
133.50
105.50
137.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
282
1.27
INVENSYS
494.20
217.33
509.50
Neutral
Sell
282
1.40
LAIRD
214.10
171.10
249.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
456
2.10
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1514.00
1209.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1334
1.11
RENISHAW
1698.00
1494.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2143
1.29
SPECTRIS
2264.00
1549.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2906
1.53
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
102.50
65.00
303.67
Neutral
Sell
-455
0.77
TT ELECTRONICS
182.75
114.00
191.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
441
1.61
XAAR
827.00
227.00
898.00
Neutral
Sell
432
1.06
DIALIGHT
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
23 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 7 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
114.75
54.25
114.75
Sell
Buy
144
1.19
BODYCOTE
640.00
337.60
644.00
Neutral
Neutral
629
1.60
CASTINGS
418.50
291.00
443.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
668
0.95
VESUVIUS
476.60
263.19
480.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1165
2.23
FENNER
350.60
305.90
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
553
1.45
HALMA
556.50
405.80
578.00
Neutral
Sell
407
0.78
438.50
338.25
480.00
Neutral
Buy
540
1.32
1491.00
837.50
1491.00
Sell
Strong Buy
4399
1.41
310.30
220.30
318.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
503
1.90
2748.00
2157.00
3037.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4684
1.00
284.00
185.90
284.90
Neutral
Sell
246
1.66
0.79
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
55.00
35.40
76.91
Neutral
Sell
46
SPIRAX-SARCO
3021.00
1932.53
3021.00
Sell
Sell
2113
0.84
VITEC GROUP
620.00
559.00
740.00
Neutral
Sell
478
1.37
WEIR GROUP
2215.00
1566.00
2474.00
Neutral
Neutral
2180
1.44
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
408.00
392.10
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
772
0.44
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
286.20
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Buy
385
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
388.30
321.90
398.50
Neutral
Buy
470
0.56
TESCO
365.80
307.90
387.75
Neutral
Sell
194
0.68
83.50
23.88
100.50
Neutral
Sell
53
0.79
THORNTONS
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1872.00
1267.00
2031.00
Neutral
Sell
1658
0.61
CRANSWICK
1106.00
732.50
1178.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1784
0.33
DAIRY CREST
521.00
332.90
528.50
Sell
Sell
388
0.91
DEVRO
324.20
289.90
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
511
0.37
PREMIER FOODS
120.50
54.50
125.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
254
1.26
812.00
634.50
883.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1354
0.67
2528.00
2235.00
2885.00
Neutral
Sell
2185
0.50
UNILEVER (UK)
www.intellisys.uk.com
23 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 8 of 17
Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
27.00
22.13
29.50
Neutral
Buy
39
0.66
571.50
266.40
571.50
Sell
Sell
464
0.51
1574.00
1000.00
1593.00
Neutral
Sell
1249
1.29
670.50
585.00
701.50
Neutral
Sell
355
0.90
42.84
17.00
46.33
Neutral
Buy
49
1.46
239.25
102.00
239.25
Sell
Sell
65
1.06
32.25
21.25
34.00
Sell
Strong Buy
112
1.01
HALFORDS GROUP
377.00
234.50
405.20
Neutral
Buy
520
0.71
JD SPORTS FASHION
933.00
653.00
963.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1781
0.49
DARTY
Target
Beta
82.25
39.00
82.25
Neutral
Buy
117
1.23
KINGFISHER
387.40
262.20
404.90
Neutral
Buy
454
0.91
459.30
352.70
488.80
Neutral
Buy
650
0.60
63.25
44.75
71.00
Neutral
Buy
76
0.97
442.75
202.00
492.75
Neutral
Sell
168
0.38
NEXT
4860.00
3320.00
5030.00
Neutral
Buy
5413
0.61
TED BAKER
1955.00
899.00
1973.00
Sell
Sell
982
0.56
83.25
46.00
89.75
Neutral
Sell
77
1.51
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Health
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
134.00
129.50
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
114
0.39
CONSORT MEDICAL
822.50
660.50
839.00
Neutral
Sell
574
0.35
OPTOS
157.50
106.75
222.75
Neutral
Neutral
171
1.17
783.00
638.00
800.00
Neutral
Sell
667
0.45
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
770.50
601.00
794.50
Neutral
Neutral
755
0.42
HEADLAM GROUP
382.00
295.00
415.00
Neutral
Sell
328
0.88
82.50
55.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
112
0.70
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
878.50
528.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
282
0.73
CSR
522.00
308.10
607.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1565
1.13
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
65.00
30.75
83.25
Neutral
Sell
56
0.94
269.40
235.10
624.00
Neutral
Buy
324
1.04
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
129.80
118.00
170.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
243
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
160.00
140.00
226.25
Neutral
Sell
-200
0.94
www.intellisys.uk.com
23 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 9 of 17
Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1293.00
1019.00
1416.00
Neutral
Sell
-377
0.52
AMLIN
390.20
364.10
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1485
0.40
BEAZLEY
206.20
162.20
242.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
923
0.50
CATLIN GROUP
464.00
450.10
552.50
Neutral
Neutral
466
0.22
HISCOX
639.00
459.54
660.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1849
0.46
918.00
723.00
923.00
Neutral
Buy
1208
0.32
123.60
107.70
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
700
0.39
NOVAE GROUP
507.00
345.00
515.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3308
0.38
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2474.00
2092.00
2628.00
Neutral
Buy
3525
0.95
ENTERPRISE INNS
139.50
55.75
152.20
Neutral
Sell
109
1.64
TUI TRAVEL
357.50
208.20
401.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
725
0.96
942.25
700.50
969.00
Neutral
Sell
608
0.26
GREENE KING
822.00
556.50
897.50
Neutral
Sell
622
0.88
LADBROKES
193.10
169.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
260
0.87
1863.00
1524.00
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1646
1.10
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
558.00
456.00
582.50
Neutral
Neutral
584
1.34
419.00
262.70
430.40
Sell
Sell
275
1.00
131.20
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
63
1.24
12.25
6.15
13.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
73
1.16
159.00
128.60
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
565
0.96
0.70
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
532.00
322.00
570.00
Neutral
Sell
387
WETHERSPOON (JD)
745.50
447.90
767.00
Neutral
Sell
689
0.57
WHITBREAD
3112.00
2096.00
3303.00
Neutral
Sell
2171
0.97
WILLIAM HILL
430.00
271.02
494.50
Neutral
Sell
255
0.80
MARSTON'S
156.50
109.90
164.50
Neutral
Sell
15
1.16
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
399.20
294.10
404.90
Neutral
Sell
366
1.18
CHESNARA
261.75
174.00
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
518
0.64
198.20
128.00
201.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
488
1.69
OLD MUTUAL
187.10
165.10
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
390
1.52
PRUDENTIAL
1121.00
770.00
1232.00
Neutral
Neutral
1173
1.66
611.00
336.20
641.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
6537
0.84
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
23 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
141.00
102.00
146.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
922
0.42
827.00
709.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1056
0.47
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
Target
Beta
39.50
31.00
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-42
1.06
800.00
451.25
835.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3556
1.07
1140.00
747.50
1140.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5566
0.96
INFORMA
511.00
380.50
541.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
327
1.63
ITE GROUP
296.50
183.50
307.40
Neutral
Buy
201
1.44
ITV
165.30
82.00
168.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1369
1.46
1.20
JOHNSTON PRESS
17.50
5.20
19.00
Neutral
Buy
720
1325.00
1119.00
1350.00
Neutral
Neutral
309
0.65
98.00
42.75
99.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2283
0.86
289.00
269.00
289.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
732
0.13
35.50
26.85
36.45
Neutral
Strong Buy
346
0.52
STV GROUP
195.00
81.50
195.00
Neutral
Sell
240
0.82
ST.IVES
159.75
73.63
170.00
Neutral
Sell
159
1.48
TRINITY MIRROR
110.00
36.75
122.25
Neutral
Sell
-289
1.59
UBM
702.00
636.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1421
1.33
189.25
103.50
196.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1390
0.85
1191.00
788.00
1210.00
Neutral
Sell
-827
1.27
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1504.50
1207.00
2084.00
Neutral
Sell
1288
1.84
199.00
161.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
216
1.07
ANTOFAGASTA
908.00
784.50
1381.00
Neutral
Neutral
871
1.42
1908.50
1666.50
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3050
1.48
GLENCORE XSTRATA
313.85
256.85
397.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
1048
#NA
LONMIN
347.90
240.84
380.10
Sell
Buy
446
2.08
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
5040.00
3972.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2963
0.47
RIO TINTO
3043.50
2582.00
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2521
1.53
861.00
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2884
2.24
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
VEDANTA RESOURCES
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1168.00
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
886
BP
437.00
416.60
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
998
1.02
CAIRN ENERGY
270.50
251.80
298.80
Neutral
Sell
-33
1.33
0.84
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
Beta
0.84
8.83
7.15
12.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
114
870.00
716.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
575
1.35
69.00
48.50
87.00
Neutral
Sell
-58
1.35
346.50
321.30
400.20
Neutral
Buy
401
1.45
2126.00
2098.00
2365.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8163
0.83
373.80
319.90
404.30
Neutral
Buy
441
0.53
1010.00
977.00
1468.00
Neutral
Sell
685
1.05
818.00
720.50
915.50
Neutral
Sell
721
1.44
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
23 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
130.00
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
269
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
408.30
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
338
0.70
4519.00
3560.00
4950.00
Neutral
Neutral
4573
0.30
Target
Under Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.48
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
-3
0.91
3230.00
2792.50
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
9025
0.51
BTG
388.00
300.30
397.90
Neutral
Sell
214
0.73
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
685.00
485.50
780.00
Neutral
Buy
933
0.18
1666.50
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Buy
1930
0.52
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
1.41
1.33
2.80
Buy
Sell
-2
0.57
1.33
1.05
12.75
Neutral
Sell
-6
0.93
2435.00
1727.00
2442.00
Neutral
Sell
1539
0.70
SKYEPHARMA
86.50
43.50
100.50
Neutral
Buy
103
0.66
VERNALIS
25.13
19.38
27.38
Neutral
Sell
11
0.86
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Under Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
409.20
300.00
445.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
645
1.18
BRITISH LAND
566.50
506.00
658.00
Neutral
Buy
757
1.05
2305.00
1890.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4434
1.23
522.00
434.40
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1024
1.06
HAMMERSON
488.00
448.60
554.00
Neutral
Neutral
502
1.24
DERWENT LONDON
Target
Beta
INTU PROPERTIES
311.10
300.60
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
493
1.13
886.50
761.50
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1592
1.15
25.25
24.25
40.75
Neutral
Sell
-145
0.81
LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY
112.30
103.20
121.40
Neutral
Sell
-4
0.33
MCKAY SECURITIES
151.50
131.50
155.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
244
0.66
406.25
325.00
454.50
Neutral
Sell
229
0.39
337.00
312.50
363.53
Neutral
Sell
92
0.30
0.64
43.38
29.02
45.00
Neutral
Sell
-350
SEGRO
REDEFINE INTL.REIT
298.00
221.60
313.60
Neutral
Sell
-248
1.81
SHAFTESBURY
605.00
516.00
668.00
Neutral
Buy
774
1.03
199.88
177.00
223.00
Neutral
Sell
11
1.04
0.80
0.70
2.25
Neutral
Sell
-932
0.93
458.90
250.75
475.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1137
1.01
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
www.intellisys.uk.com
23 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
326.20
210.50
365.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
748
41.00
22.75
41.25
Neutral
Sell
-51
0.64
CLS HOLDINGS
1170.00
656.50
1260.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2943
0.75
DAEJAN HOLDINGS
4041.00
2706.00
4179.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7140
0.48
194.25
143.00
209.00
Neutral
Neutral
194
0.96
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
Target
Beta
0.70
GRAINGER
177.50
97.45
187.50
Neutral
Sell
111
1.57
HELICAL BAR
275.75
178.00
302.50
Neutral
Sell
202
0.82
28.50
21.00
29.75
Sell
Strong Buy
230
0.64
6187.50
4350.00
6512.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
14568
0.69
88.00
51.00
92.00
Sell
Sell
-198
1.04
RAVEN RUSSIA
69.00
61.50
79.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
211
1.48
605.00
386.70
664.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2158
0.74
90.00
71.50
90.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
384
0.33
SAVILLS
SMART (J)
ST MODWEN PROPS.
309.00
193.10
333.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
621
1.60
UNITE GROUP
369.00
219.50
403.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1658
1.77
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
109.60
109.60
162.00
Neutral
Buy
125
0.67
2396.00
1776.97
2588.15
Neutral
Sell
1487
1.49
COMPUTACENTER
526.00
333.29
564.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1134
0.89
KOFAX
348.00
260.75
358.75
Neutral
Sell
301
1.06
AVEVA GROUP
INNOVATION GROUP
Target
Beta
29.00
19.50
30.25
Neutral
Sell
21
0.78
799.00
541.11
812.50
Neutral
Buy
915
0.82
PHOENIX IT GROUP
147.25
130.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
236
0.69
83.00
64.00
85.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
234
0.54
2130.00
1275.00
2156.00
Neutral
Neutral
2167
0.79
353.40
289.36
368.18
Neutral
Buy
435
0.69
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
361.60
274.60
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1270
1.11
BREWIN DOLPHIN
268.40
144.60
283.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
673
0.70
9025.00
8000.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
98626
0.84
469.75
260.00
472.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1475
0.96
0.67
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
CHARLES TAYLOR
Target
Beta
192.00
155.00
195.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1672
1051.00
771.00
1107.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4988
0.86
105.00
88.90
110.40
Neutral
Sell
68
0.84
4.90
0.55
5.18
Sell
Sell
-137
0.63
HENDERSON GROUP
HELPHIRE GROUP
176.80
101.70
180.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
839
1.46
ICAP
376.60
280.80
406.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
837
1.04
448.40
280.00
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2346
1.69
INVESTEC
424.20
358.40
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1739
1.57
1580.00
930.00
1622.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6593
1.11
84.70
71.30
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-5156
1.36
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1585.00
1208.00
1691.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5671
0.73
SCHRODERS
2378.00
1407.00
2560.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8454
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1902.00
1131.00
2000.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
11122
1.28
www.intellisys.uk.com
23 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
265.00
157.75
266.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
866
0.88
AGGREKO
1655.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4242
1.13
AMEC
1082.00
965.50
1172.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3349
1.09
656.50
273.20
730.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1004
1.65
1155.00
895.50
1209.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2645
0.49
550.00
362.50
604.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2382
0.80
1350.00
1009.00
1409.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2815
0.53
UK MAIL GROUP
635.00
233.50
645.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1680
0.42
CAPITA
991.00
713.00
1057.00
Neutral
Sell
210
0.54
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
57.25
34.16
68.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
486
0.81
COMPASS GROUP
871.50
671.50
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2003
0.74
BERENDSEN
870.00
514.00
870.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3395
1.03
DE LA RUE
996.00
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Buy
1438
#NA
DIGNITY
1470.00
899.82
1567.68
Neutral
Strong Buy
3163
0.24
DIPLOMA
636.50
420.10
636.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1538
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
263.90
200.00
278.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
937
1.01
ESSENTRA PLC
791.00
500.50
830.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1399
1.16
G4S
246.00
207.50
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
895
0.53
HAYS
104.60
68.20
107.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
463
1.06
HOMESERVE
244.00
185.60
293.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
983
0.88
INTERSERVE
569.00
349.10
570.00
Sell
Strong Buy
3725
1.26
3230.00
2697.00
3453.00
Neutral
Buy
4833
0.80
49.00
28.00
50.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
117
1.11
0.63
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
26.75
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
219
MENZIES (JOHN)
737.00
573.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1808
1.38
468.00
346.40
474.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
850
1.41
MITIE GROUP
279.00
248.00
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1070
0.52
37.50
37.50
145.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
716
0.28
OFFICE2OFFICE
1083.00
700.50
1185.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2223
0.73
PREMIER FARNELL
PAYPOINT
223.40
165.50
236.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
729
1.42
REGUS
183.90
96.00
193.40
Neutral
Sell
56
1.40
RENTOKIL INITIAL
102.00
76.10
103.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
271
1.26
REXAM
497.60
420.70
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1792
0.85
RICARDO
478.00
340.00
485.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1688
0.89
ROBERT WALTERS
279.50
176.25
285.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1028
1.19
RPC GROUP
469.50
378.00
477.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1540
0.80
RPS GROUP
255.90
195.50
274.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1011
1.51
SERCO GROUP
621.50
535.00
683.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2396
0.59
SHANKS GROUP
92.50
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
271
1.49
SPEEDY HIRE
57.50
23.50
64.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
312
1.20
193.75
88.50
202.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
568
0.65
60.88
40.50
60.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
336
0.91
VP
435.00
295.25
435.00
Sell
Strong Buy
2324
0.81
WYG
101.00
48.50
101.00
Sell
Strong Buy
626
0.80
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
330.50
212.50
344.00
Neutral
Buy
417
0.88
41.46
33.55
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
78
0.68
700.00
542.50
749.00
Neutral
Sell
261
0.55
86.15
68.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
118
1.21
1357.00
814.00
1399.00
Neutral
Sell
804
0.05
190.05
154.45
200.20
Neutral
Sell
103
0.51
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
23 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Transport
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
304.20
187.20
307.50
Neutral
Sell
234
1.24
451.00
350.00
460.00
Neutral
Buy
597
1.05
CLARKSON
1926.00
1150.00
1926.00
Sell
Sell
1344
0.85
EASYJET
1277.00
530.00
1448.00
Neutral
Sell
870
0.76
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
115.70
92.00
212.39
Neutral
Strong Buy
282
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1100.00
699.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
792
0.74
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1503.00
1220.00
1595.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2742
0.99
NATIONAL EXPRESS
263.10
164.50
263.10
Neutral
Sell
250
1.40
NORTHGATE
393.50
219.00
395.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
646
1.34
STAGECOACH GROUP
320.10
265.90
337.60
Neutral
Buy
446
0.98
87.50
43.75
87.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
237
0.96
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
387.60
310.80
394.90
Neutral
Buy
574
0.52
NATIONAL GRID
737.50
678.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
964
0.46
PENNON GROUP
679.00
598.00
749.50
Neutral
Sell
619
0.62
SSE
1550.00
1345.00
1676.00
Neutral
Buy
2248
0.41
SEVERN TRENT
1707.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1477
0.36
686.50
647.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
736
0.48
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
23 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
DISCLAIMER
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys is the trading name of Intellisys
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intellisys is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of quoted company
shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to present an
objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial sector or
stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and proprietary
systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to be
accurate but Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of
the source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely
upon the Intellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice
specific to their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this
report. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or
completeness or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted to the accuracy or
sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. In
no event will Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited, Intellisys or any of its officers, employees or agents be
liable to any other party for any direct, indirect, special or other consequential damages arising from the use
of this report.
The Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports are not directed to any person in any
jurisdiction where (by reason of that persons nationality, residence or otherwise) the publication or
availability of the Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys information may be prohibited.
Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not access the Intellisys Intelligent Analysis
Limited and/or Intellisys reports. Neither this document, nor any copy in whatever form of media, may be
taken or transmitted into the United States, Canada, Australia, Ireland, South Africa or Japan or into any
jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a
violation of relevant local securities laws. Recipients of Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys
reports outside the UK are not covered by the rules and regulations made for the protection of investors in
the UK.
Any user distributing information taken from any Intellisys reports and/or the Intellisys website, in whatever
form, to any other person, agrees to attach a copy of this Disclaimer and the Terms and Conditions of Use
pages and obtain the agreement of such other person to comply with the terms set forth.
Intellisys' published reports are published for information purposes and only available to market
counterparties, high net-worth and sophisticated individual investors.
No Intellisys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire any shares or other
financial instruments in any company or any interest therein, nor shall it form the basis of any contract
entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
Intellisys believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any
person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for
the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
Intellisys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have positions
in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and may buy,
sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by internal
rules.
www.intellisys.uk.com
23 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 16 of 17
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided
solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you must contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
www.intellisys.uk.com
23 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 17 of 17