Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
22 August 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Unde r V a lue d ......................................................................6
Chemicals
Telecommunication Services
Over Valued ................................................................................... 15
Transport
Under Valued ....................................................................................... 15
Utilities
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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22 August 2013
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
22 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
440.90
300.80
455.40
Neutral
Buy
Target
608
Beta
0.71
CHEMRING GROUP
313.30
217.00
377.60
Neutral
Buy
370
0.66
COBHAM
289.20
190.10
307.70
Neutral
Neutral
300
0.85
MEGGITT
534.50
366.20
562.00
Neutral
Neutral
526
1.28
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1124.00
799.39
1240.00
Neutral
Neutral
1138
1.00
SMITHS GROUP
1312.00
1011.00
1397.00
Neutral
Sell
1154
0.77
1939.00
1505.00
1981.00
Neutral
Sell
1711
0.52
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
336.80
201.00
354.00
Neutral
Neutral
332
1.97
INCHCAPE
615.00
353.30
645.00
Neutral
Neutral
637
1.42
LOOKERS
123.00
68.75
128.50
Neutral
Sell
112
1.22
31.25
13.50
32.00
Neutral
Buy
44
1.09
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
283.00
181.25
333.85
Neutral
Sell
-844
1.95
682.00
541.00
769.90
Neutral
Buy
854
1.18
73.86
32.89
77.14
Neutral
Sell
1.86
334.10
220.70
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-124
1.39
STANDARD CHARTERED
1464.50
1364.00
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3397
1.64
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
569.50
415.00
588.50
Neutral
Sell
497
0.58
DIAGEO
1998.00
1672.50
2136.50
Sell
Neutral
2190
0.54
SABMILLER
3039.50
2599.00
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
4206
0.91
BARR (AG)
Target
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALENT
338.60
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Buy
461
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
322.30
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
567
1.12
CARCLO
367.00
342.75
501.00
Neutral
Sell
145
0.74
2576.00
2164.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3299
1.05
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
256.80
204.20
275.00
Neutral
Buy
318
1.07
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2775.00
2190.00
2887.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4352
1.43
VICTREX
1600.00
1309.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1378
1.16
SYNTHOMER
227.80
141.80
230.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
403
1.10
ZOTEFOAMS
199.00
178.50
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
304
1.00
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
116.00
76.00
118.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
276
Beta
BALFOUR BEATTY
251.70
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1115
0.83
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
304.50
149.30
355.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
606
1.70
1.02
0.56
BELLWAY
1396.00
869.00
1502.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2848
2164.00
1387.00
2340.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3458
0.58
BOOT (HENRY)
185.50
123.50
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
363
0.75
1.11
776.50
473.20
851.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1431
CARILLION
297.30
244.80
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1537
1.09
CLARKE (T)
59.00
40.00
62.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
385
0.80
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
GALLIFORD TRY
280.75
220.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1130
0.52
1395.00
1090.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
888
1.04
975.00
621.00
1020.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2942
0.97
KELLER
1074.00
491.00
1161.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2376
1.29
KIER GROUP
1491.00
1106.00
1528.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5324
1.01
71.75
50.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
224
1.06
1.33
155.75
81.00
155.75
Neutral
Buy
203
671.50
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4518
0.71
17.00
11.25
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
60
1.05
NORCROS
1142.00
644.20
1305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1989
1.02
REDROW
PERSIMMON
225.30
140.00
255.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
453
0.90
SIG
177.30
94.15
188.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
526
1.70
46.00
43.00
287.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
4229
0.89
104.00
50.25
113.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
226
1.61
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
1575.00
1013.00
1713.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4393
1.95
WOLSELEY
3194.00
2504.56
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5984
1.35
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1340.00
999.50
1365.00
Neutral
Sell
1083
0.69
680.00
522.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
908
1.14
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
131.75
105.50
137.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
281
1.27
INVENSYS
494.10
217.33
509.50
Neutral
Sell
281
1.40
LAIRD
214.90
171.10
249.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
455
2.10
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1508.00
1209.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1330
1.11
RENISHAW
1674.00
1494.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2135
1.29
SPECTRIS
2246.00
1549.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2896
1.53
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
104.50
65.00
303.67
Neutral
Sell
-455
0.77
TT ELECTRONICS
181.75
114.00
191.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
440
1.61
XAAR
832.00
227.00
898.00
Neutral
Sell
431
1.06
DIALIGHT
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Target
Beta
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Page 7 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
114.25
54.25
114.25
Sell
Buy
144
1.19
BODYCOTE
633.50
337.60
644.00
Neutral
Neutral
624
1.60
CASTINGS
421.00
291.00
443.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
662
0.95
VESUVIUS
469.90
263.19
480.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1167
2.23
FENNER
353.00
305.90
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
549
1.45
HALMA
556.00
405.80
578.00
Neutral
Sell
402
0.78
435.00
338.00
480.00
Neutral
Buy
536
1.32
1409.00
837.50
1445.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4221
1.41
305.20
220.30
318.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
488
1.90
2730.00
2157.00
3037.00
Neutral
Buy
3090
1.00
282.00
185.90
284.90
Neutral
Sell
244
1.66
0.79
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
56.50
35.40
76.91
Neutral
Sell
46
SPIRAX-SARCO
3000.00
1932.53
3016.00
Sell
Sell
2091
0.84
VITEC GROUP
615.50
559.00
740.00
Neutral
Sell
477
1.37
WEIR GROUP
2192.00
1566.00
2474.00
Neutral
Neutral
2159
1.44
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
401.20
392.10
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
767
0.44
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
284.60
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Buy
381
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
386.00
321.90
398.50
Neutral
Buy
465
0.56
TESCO
363.20
307.90
387.75
Neutral
Sell
192
0.68
84.50
23.88
100.50
Neutral
Sell
54
0.79
THORNTONS
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1869.00
1267.00
2031.00
Neutral
Sell
1644
0.61
CRANSWICK
1108.00
732.50
1178.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1770
0.33
DAIRY CREST
510.50
332.90
528.50
Neutral
Sell
384
0.91
DEVRO
320.00
289.90
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
508
0.37
PREMIER FOODS
117.50
54.50
125.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
250
1.26
814.00
634.50
883.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1344
0.67
2507.00
2235.00
2885.00
Neutral
Sell
2173
0.50
UNILEVER (UK)
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
26.00
22.13
29.50
Neutral
Buy
39
0.66
563.50
266.40
563.50
Sell
Sell
459
0.51
1586.00
1000.00
1593.00
Neutral
Sell
1235
1.29
660.00
585.00
701.50
Neutral
Sell
351
0.90
42.77
17.00
46.33
Neutral
Buy
48
1.46
234.50
102.00
234.50
Sell
Sell
63
1.06
31.00
21.25
34.00
Sell
Strong Buy
111
1.01
HALFORDS GROUP
367.80
234.50
405.20
Neutral
Buy
513
0.71
JD SPORTS FASHION
928.50
651.00
963.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1759
0.49
DARTY
Target
Beta
81.00
39.00
81.75
Neutral
Buy
115
1.23
KINGFISHER
385.10
262.20
404.90
Neutral
Buy
448
0.91
457.00
352.70
488.80
Neutral
Buy
642
0.60
63.25
44.75
71.00
Neutral
Buy
75
0.97
437.25
202.00
492.75
Neutral
Sell
165
0.38
NEXT
4800.00
3320.00
5030.00
Neutral
Buy
5355
0.61
TED BAKER
1929.00
899.00
1973.00
Sell
Sell
970
0.56
82.00
46.00
89.75
Neutral
Sell
76
1.51
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Health
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
134.00
129.50
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
115
0.39
CONSORT MEDICAL
839.00
660.50
839.00
Neutral
Sell
579
0.35
OPTOS
154.50
106.75
222.75
Neutral
Buy
171
1.17
775.00
638.00
800.00
Neutral
Sell
663
0.45
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
771.00
601.00
794.50
Neutral
Neutral
756
0.42
HEADLAM GROUP
380.50
295.00
415.00
Neutral
Sell
326
0.88
82.00
55.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
111
0.70
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
871.50
528.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
280
0.73
CSR
516.00
308.10
607.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1555
1.13
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
64.75
30.75
83.25
Neutral
Sell
55
0.94
268.40
235.10
624.00
Neutral
Buy
322
1.04
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
129.80
118.00
170.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
241
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
158.00
140.00
226.25
Neutral
Sell
-200
0.94
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1294.00
1019.00
1416.00
Neutral
Sell
-360
0.52
AMLIN
392.90
364.10
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1476
0.40
BEAZLEY
208.60
162.20
242.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
917
0.50
CATLIN GROUP
460.90
450.10
552.50
Neutral
Neutral
464
0.22
HISCOX
634.00
459.54
660.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1838
0.46
919.00
723.00
923.00
Neutral
Buy
1204
0.32
120.00
107.70
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
695
0.39
NOVAE GROUP
505.00
345.00
515.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3284
0.38
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2427.00
2092.00
2628.00
Neutral
Buy
3510
0.95
ENTERPRISE INNS
138.50
55.75
152.20
Neutral
Sell
108
1.64
TUI TRAVEL
354.60
208.20
401.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
722
0.96
969.00
700.50
969.00
Neutral
Sell
605
0.26
GREENE KING
815.50
556.50
897.50
Neutral
Sell
619
0.88
LADBROKES
195.00
169.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
258
0.87
1845.00
1524.00
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1637
1.10
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
551.00
456.00
582.50
Neutral
Neutral
582
1.34
414.00
262.70
430.40
Sell
Sell
273
1.00
130.90
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
63
1.24
12.63
6.15
13.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
72
1.16
157.50
128.60
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
562
0.96
0.70
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
528.00
321.10
570.00
Neutral
Sell
385
WETHERSPOON (JD)
739.50
447.90
767.00
Neutral
Sell
686
0.57
WHITBREAD
3064.00
2096.00
3303.00
Neutral
Sell
2161
0.97
WILLIAM HILL
432.00
271.02
494.50
Neutral
Sell
254
0.80
MARSTON'S
155.20
109.90
164.50
Neutral
Sell
15
1.16
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
395.00
294.10
404.90
Neutral
Sell
362
1.18
CHESNARA
260.00
170.00
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
515
0.64
196.00
128.00
201.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
485
1.69
OLD MUTUAL
187.70
165.10
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
390
1.52
PRUDENTIAL
1125.00
770.00
1232.00
Neutral
Neutral
1168
1.66
606.00
336.20
641.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
6554
0.84
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
22 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
141.00
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
922
0.42
825.00
709.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1056
0.47
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
Target
Beta
39.00
31.00
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-42
1.06
793.50
451.25
835.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3556
1.07
1140.00
747.50
1140.00
Sell
Strong Buy
5566
0.96
INFORMA
505.00
380.50
541.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
327
1.63
ITE GROUP
288.00
183.50
307.40
Neutral
Buy
201
1.44
ITV
163.70
82.00
168.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1369
1.46
1.20
JOHNSTON PRESS
16.88
5.20
19.00
Neutral
Buy
720
1308.00
1119.00
1350.00
Neutral
Neutral
309
0.65
98.00
42.75
99.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2283
0.86
289.00
269.00
289.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
732
0.13
35.15
26.85
36.45
Neutral
Strong Buy
346
0.52
STV GROUP
184.50
81.50
184.50
Neutral
Sell
240
0.82
ST.IVES
158.75
73.25
170.00
Neutral
Sell
159
1.48
TRINITY MIRROR
107.50
36.75
122.25
Neutral
Sell
-289
1.59
UBM
696.00
636.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1421
1.33
189.75
103.00
196.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1390
0.85
1191.00
788.00
1210.00
Neutral
Sell
-827
1.27
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1474.00
1207.00
2084.00
Neutral
Sell
1260
1.84
194.50
161.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
212
1.07
ANTOFAGASTA
895.00
784.50
1381.00
Neutral
Neutral
857
1.42
1873.00
1666.50
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2993
1.48
GLENCORE XSTRATA
304.75
256.85
397.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
1027
#NA
LONMIN
338.00
240.84
380.10
Sell
Buy
437
2.08
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4998.00
3972.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2911
0.47
RIO TINTO
2987.00
2582.00
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2464
1.53
861.00
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2817
2.24
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
VEDANTA RESOURCES
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1147.00
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
882
BP
432.55
416.60
483.30
Buy
Strong Buy
991
1.02
CAIRN ENERGY
272.80
251.80
298.80
Neutral
Sell
-33
1.33
0.84
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
Beta
0.84
8.79
7.15
12.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
115
862.00
716.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
572
1.35
69.50
48.50
87.00
Neutral
Sell
-59
1.35
357.00
321.30
400.20
Neutral
Buy
399
1.45
2108.50
2098.00
2365.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8123
0.83
368.50
319.90
404.30
Neutral
Buy
437
0.53
1006.00
977.00
1468.00
Neutral
Sell
682
1.05
810.50
720.50
915.50
Neutral
Sell
717
1.44
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
22 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
127.50
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
265
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
403.20
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
333
0.70
4495.00
3536.00
4950.00
Neutral
Neutral
4548
0.30
Target
Under Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.48
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
-3
0.91
3183.50
2792.50
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
9001
0.51
BTG
392.10
300.30
397.90
Neutral
Sell
214
0.73
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
685.50
485.50
780.00
Neutral
Buy
929
0.18
1655.50
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Buy
1924
0.52
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
1.41
1.33
2.80
Buy
Sell
-2
0.57
1.33
1.05
12.75
Neutral
Sell
-6
0.93
2405.00
1727.00
2442.00
Neutral
Sell
1537
0.70
SKYEPHARMA
85.00
43.50
100.50
Neutral
Buy
103
0.66
VERNALIS
24.75
19.38
27.38
Neutral
Sell
10
0.86
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Under Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
405.30
300.00
445.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
651
1.18
BRITISH LAND
565.00
506.00
658.00
Neutral
Buy
765
1.05
2305.00
1890.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4456
1.23
520.00
434.40
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1030
1.06
HAMMERSON
488.10
448.60
554.00
Neutral
Neutral
508
1.24
DERWENT LONDON
Target
Beta
INTU PROPERTIES
308.50
300.60
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
497
1.13
886.50
761.50
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1607
1.15
25.50
24.25
40.75
Neutral
Sell
-148
0.81
LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY
112.80
103.20
121.40
Neutral
Sell
-4
0.33
MCKAY SECURITIES
149.75
131.50
155.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
245
0.66
418.25
325.00
454.50
Neutral
Sell
230
0.39
335.00
312.50
363.53
Neutral
Sell
92
0.30
0.64
44.25
29.02
45.00
Neutral
Sell
-360
SEGRO
REDEFINE INTL.REIT
298.90
221.60
313.60
Neutral
Sell
-257
1.81
SHAFTESBURY
606.00
516.00
668.00
Neutral
Buy
781
1.03
195.00
177.00
223.00
Neutral
Sell
1.04
0.80
0.70
2.25
Neutral
Sell
-951
0.93
450.20
250.75
475.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1145
1.01
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
www.intellisys.uk.com
22 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
328.20
210.50
365.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
752
40.00
22.75
41.25
Neutral
Sell
-50
0.64
CLS HOLDINGS
1173.00
656.50
1260.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2927
0.75
DAEJAN HOLDINGS
4027.00
2706.00
4179.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7090
0.48
185.25
143.00
209.00
Neutral
Neutral
193
0.96
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
Target
Beta
0.70
GRAINGER
176.50
97.45
187.50
Neutral
Sell
110
1.57
HELICAL BAR
277.00
178.00
302.50
Neutral
Sell
200
0.82
27.00
20.75
29.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
229
0.64
6262.50
4350.00
6512.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
14497
0.69
88.00
51.00
92.00
Sell
Sell
-196
1.04
RAVEN RUSSIA
69.00
61.50
79.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
210
1.48
602.50
386.70
664.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2157
0.74
90.50
71.50
90.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
383
0.33
SAVILLS
SMART (J)
ST MODWEN PROPS.
305.70
193.10
333.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
617
1.60
UNITE GROUP
371.00
216.00
403.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1651
1.77
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
110.00
110.00
162.00
Neutral
Buy
125
0.67
2372.00
1776.97
2588.15
Neutral
Sell
1480
1.49
COMPUTACENTER
520.50
333.29
564.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1135
0.89
KOFAX
346.50
260.75
358.75
Neutral
Sell
301
1.06
AVEVA GROUP
INNOVATION GROUP
Target
Beta
29.25
19.50
30.25
Neutral
Sell
21
0.78
791.00
541.11
812.50
Neutral
Buy
899
0.82
PHOENIX IT GROUP
152.75
130.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
237
0.69
81.75
64.00
85.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
234
0.54
2100.00
1275.00
2156.00
Neutral
Neutral
2158
0.79
352.10
289.36
368.18
Neutral
Buy
434
0.69
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
356.30
274.60
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1253
1.11
BREWIN DOLPHIN
271.60
144.60
283.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
662
0.70
9000.00
8000.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
96954
0.84
472.50
260.00
472.50
Sell
Strong Buy
1448
0.96
0.67
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
CHARLES TAYLOR
Target
Beta
192.50
155.00
195.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1648
1042.00
771.00
1107.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4897
0.86
102.80
88.90
110.40
Neutral
Sell
67
0.84
4.76
0.55
5.18
Sell
Sell
-134
0.63
HENDERSON GROUP
HELPHIRE GROUP
174.90
101.70
180.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
829
1.46
ICAP
368.20
280.80
406.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
821
1.04
447.00
280.00
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2334
1.69
INVESTEC
420.50
358.40
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1716
1.57
1566.00
930.00
1622.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6870
1.11
81.50
71.30
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-5049
1.36
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1610.00
1208.00
1691.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5576
0.73
SCHRODERS
2334.00
1407.00
2560.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8309
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1853.00
1131.00
2000.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
10969
1.28
www.intellisys.uk.com
22 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
264.88
157.75
266.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
855
0.88
AGGREKO
1654.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4183
1.13
AMEC
1070.00
965.50
1172.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3311
1.09
648.50
270.20
730.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
992
1.65
1149.00
893.50
1209.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2613
0.49
545.75
361.50
604.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2355
0.80
1345.00
1009.00
1409.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2783
0.53
UK MAIL GROUP
645.00
233.50
645.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1660
0.42
CAPITA
988.50
713.00
1057.00
Neutral
Sell
208
0.54
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
56.50
34.16
68.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
480
0.81
COMPASS GROUP
863.50
671.50
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1978
0.74
BERENDSEN
870.00
514.00
870.00
Sell
Strong Buy
3353
1.03
DE LA RUE
1000.00
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Buy
1419
#NA
DIGNITY
1461.00
899.82
1567.68
Neutral
Strong Buy
3107
0.24
DIPLOMA
600.00
420.10
635.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1521
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
260.80
200.00
278.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
926
1.01
ESSENTRA PLC
789.00
500.50
830.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1383
1.16
G4S
244.60
207.50
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
883
0.53
HAYS
103.90
68.20
107.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
457
1.06
HOMESERVE
245.00
185.60
293.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
972
0.88
INTERSERVE
570.00
347.10
570.00
Sell
Strong Buy
3687
1.26
3237.00
2697.00
3453.00
Neutral
Buy
4782
0.80
49.25
28.00
50.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
115
1.11
0.63
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
27.00
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
217
MENZIES (JOHN)
745.50
573.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1793
1.38
466.80
346.40
474.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
840
1.41
MITIE GROUP
277.00
248.00
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1056
0.52
39.00
38.00
150.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
707
0.28
OFFICE2OFFICE
1090.00
700.50
1185.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2199
0.73
PREMIER FARNELL
PAYPOINT
225.40
165.50
236.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
722
1.42
REGUS
179.50
96.00
193.40
Neutral
Sell
56
1.40
RENTOKIL INITIAL
101.40
76.10
103.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
267
1.26
REXAM
496.30
420.70
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1770
0.85
RICARDO
483.00
340.00
485.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1667
0.89
ROBERT WALTERS
278.00
176.25
285.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1015
1.19
RPC GROUP
467.80
378.00
477.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1520
0.80
RPS GROUP
258.20
195.50
274.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
999
1.51
SERCO GROUP
608.00
535.00
683.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2367
0.59
SHANKS GROUP
92.00
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
266
1.49
SPEEDY HIRE
57.25
23.50
64.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
307
1.20
188.50
88.50
202.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
561
0.65
58.88
40.50
59.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
331
0.91
VP
432.50
295.25
432.50
Sell
Strong Buy
2295
0.81
WYG
101.00
48.50
101.00
Sell
Strong Buy
619
0.80
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
327.40
212.50
344.00
Neutral
Buy
412
0.88
39.59
33.55
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
77
0.68
698.00
542.50
749.00
Neutral
Sell
257
0.55
84.55
68.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
117
1.21
1340.00
814.00
1399.00
Neutral
Sell
793
0.05
190.00
154.45
200.20
Neutral
Sell
103
0.51
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
22 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Transport
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
299.40
187.20
307.50
Neutral
Sell
233
1.24
452.00
350.00
460.00
Neutral
Buy
594
1.05
CLARKSON
1925.00
1150.00
1925.00
Sell
Sell
1337
0.85
EASYJET
1271.00
530.00
1448.00
Neutral
Sell
865
0.76
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
114.10
92.00
212.39
Neutral
Strong Buy
281
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1080.00
690.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
786
0.74
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1506.00
1220.00
1595.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2726
0.99
NATIONAL EXPRESS
261.20
164.50
261.20
Neutral
Sell
248
1.40
NORTHGATE
387.75
218.75
395.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
640
1.34
STAGECOACH GROUP
316.60
265.90
337.60
Neutral
Buy
442
0.98
85.00
43.75
85.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
234
0.96
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
386.20
310.80
394.90
Neutral
Buy
573
0.52
NATIONAL GRID
740.00
678.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
960
0.46
PENNON GROUP
671.50
598.00
749.50
Neutral
Sell
615
0.62
SSE
1547.00
1345.00
1676.00
Neutral
Buy
2238
0.41
SEVERN TRENT
1696.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1471
0.36
684.00
647.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
732
0.48
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
22 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
DISCLAIMER
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys is the trading name of Intellisys
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intellisys is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of quoted company
shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to present an
objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial sector or
stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and proprietary
systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to be
accurate but Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of
the source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely
upon the Intellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice
specific to their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this
report. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or
completeness or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted to the accuracy or
sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. In
no event will Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited, Intellisys or any of its officers, employees or agents be
liable to any other party for any direct, indirect, special or other consequential damages arising from the use
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