Climate Trends and Projections in The Philippines by Rosalina G. de Guzman Assistant Weather Services Chief PAGASA-DOST

Presentation from the Climate Change Consciousness Week Event Function Rooms 1 & 2, SMX Convention Center, Pasay
City November 21-22, 2011
Climate Trends and Projections in the Philippines

Presented by: Rosalina G. de Guzman1
1Assistant
Weather Services Chief, PAGASA/DOST
Contents
Observed Changes Projected Changes and Impacts Climate Scenario in the Philippines
Presentation from the Climate Change Consciousness Week Event Function Rooms 1 & 2, SMX Convention Center, Pasay City November 21-22, 2011
Is the Climate Changing?
Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:
1. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal

Presentation from the Climate Change Consciousness Week Event Function Rooms 1 & 2, SMX Convention Center, Pasay City, November 21-22, 2011
Climate change impacts & implications
Climate change experts anticipate more extreme weather events; but their severity and location are difficult to predict. Increases are expected in: flash flooding; landslides, as a result of intense rainfall or flood water; storm surges; man-made floods, such as breaches of embankments; and areas not previously prone to flooding, such as urban areas.
PAGASA DOST
8th Philippine Non-Life Insurance Summit, Hotel Intercontinental, Makati City, 27 April 2011
How is global warming manifested in the Philippines?
PAGASA DOST
Heavier precipitation
Total Damage = PhP11.1 B ~ (USD234 M)
Espinueva & Nilo, 2009
PAGASA DOST
Typhoon Reming (DURIAN) 29 November 2006 in Albay
Typhoon Milenyo (XANGSANE) 28 September 2006 in MM
Dead 734
Affected population 2.0M
Total Damage P5.5B
Dead 184
Affected population 4.0M
Total Damage P6.4B
. The scale of floods in the Philippines is increasing, as is the number of floods.

Damage in billion pesos (1984 - 2009)
18
16
Source: Office of Civil Defense (OCD).
14 12 10 8 6 4
2
0
HARUROT (Imbudo)
NANANG (Lingling)
SALING (Dot)
KADING (Flo)
YOYONG (Nanmadol)
TRINING (Ruth)
ROSING (Angela)
YONING (Skip)
LOLENG (Baba)
REMING (Durian)
MONANG (Lola)
ILIANG (Zeb)
UNSANG (Ruby)
NITANG (Ike)
HERMING (Betty)
RUPING (Mike)
FERIA (Utor)
ONDOY
COSME
FRANK
MINA
REMING (Xangsane)
1984 1985 1987 1988 1988 1990 1991 1993 1993 1995 1995 1998 1998 2000 2001 2001 2003 2004 2006 2006 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009
PAGASA DOST
MILENYO (Xangsane)
MAMENG (Sybil)
PEPENG
Climate Trends in the Philippines
What are the manifestations/signals of global warming in the local scale?

In the Philippines, there already are trends of increasing number of hot days and warm nights, but decreasing number of cold days and cool nights. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are generally getting warmer.
Other extreme weather/climate events like intense rains have been seen to be more frequent.
Philippine mean temperature

Observed Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines (1951-2010) Departures from 1971-2000 normal values
1 0.8
Difference ( C) from 1971-2000)
0.6 0.4 0.2 0
Annual mean temp Smoothed series (5 year running mean)
-0.2
-0.4 -0.6
Source: CAD/PAGASA/DOST
1981-2010 (last 30 yrs) 1951-2010 (60 years) Years 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Period
- 0.0164 - 0.0108 C/year 2005 2010
Rate
-0.8 1955 1960 1965
Year
An increase of 0.648C from 1951-2010 (60 years)

Maximum & Minimum Temperature
Rate of increase almost 3 times higher compared with the maximum temperature
Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines Period: (1951 2008)
Trend in the frequency of days with maximum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile
(Hot days).
Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile
(Warm nights)
Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines Period: (1951 2008)
Trend in the frequency with maximum temperature below the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile
Cool Days
Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature below the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile
Cold nights
s.
Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Period: (1948-2010)
Visited by an average 19 to 20 TYPHOONS EVERY YEAR
Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period 1948-2010 (1641 TC and 1154 or 70% entered or formed in the Philippine Area of Responsibly (PAR) (Data used: JMA Data set)
Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines Period: 1948-2010

Annual Number of Tropical Cyclones in the PAR Period: 1948-2010
40 35
30
Number of Tropical Cyclones Five-year running mean Linear (Five-year running mean)
y = -0.0223x + 20.124
Number of Tropical Cyclones
25 20
15
10 5 0 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 Year 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
*Cinco,T.A.,et
al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.
TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES

300 250 200
Number
51-80 150 100 50 0 Luzon Visayas Mindanao 61-90 71-00
Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines with maximum sustained winds of 150 kph and above
Number of Extreme Typhoon (150 kph and above) Period: 1971-2010
Mean= 5.7 or 6 TCs 10 8 6 4 2 0
Neutral year El Nio year La Nia year
12
9, 1987
(10), 2004
Frequency of TC
1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Year
Recorded Maximum Gustiness during the passage of Tropical Cyclones (1951-2010)

T.C. NAME TY REMING STATION Virac Radar MAX. WIND (KPH) 320 DATE OF OCCURRENCE 11/30/2006 DURATION NOV 28 - DEC 03
TY LOLENG
TY ANDING TY SENING TY WENING
Virac S.
Virac R. Virac S. Aparri
287
280 276 269
10/21/1998
11/27/1981 10/13/1970 10/27/1974
OCT 15 - OCT 25
NOV 21 - NOV 27 OCT 10 - OCT 16 OCT 25 - OCT 29
TY TRINING
TY FREDA TY YOLING TY GARDING TS SALING TY ROSING TY MAMENG TY ATANG TY SALING TY SISANG TY SUSANG TY ARING
Masbate
Casiguran Alabat Guiuan Ambulong Virac R Basco Guiuan Daet Legaspi Aparri Virac R
269
258 258 258 251 251 240 240 233 233 230 230
12/15/1987
11/16/1959 11/19/1970 12/21/1994 10/10/1989 11/2/1995 10/12/1975 4/19/1978 10/18/1985 11/25/1987 10/10/1974 11/4/1980
DEC 14 - DEC 19
NOV 12 - NOV 19 NOV 17 - NOV 21 DEC 17 - DEC 24 OCT 08 - OCT 11 OCT 31 - NOV 04 OCT 09 - OCT 13 APR 18 - APR 26 OCT 15 - OCT 20 NOV 23 - NOV 27 OCT 09 - OCT 12 NOV 01 - NOV 07
Source:Climate Data Section, Climatology and Agrometeology Division, PAGASA,DOST
Greatest 24-Hr. Rainfall during the passage of Tropical Cyclones (1951-2010)

T.C. NAME
TY FERIA TY ILIANG TY TRINING TY SUSANG TY TRINING
STATION
Baguio Baguio Baguio Baguio Baguio
GREATEST 24-HR. RAINFALL (MM)

1085.8 994.6 979.4 781.4 760.0
DATE OF OCCURRENCE
07/04/01 10/14/98 10/17/67 10/11/74 10/27/91
DURATION
JUL 02 - JUL 05 OCT 10 - OCT 16 OCT 14 - OCT 19 OCT 09 - OCT 12 OCT 20 - OCT 31
TY DITANG
TS CHEDENG TY GADING TY ARING TY WENING TD SISANG TY NITANG TY DIDANG TS ARING TY REMING TY CORA TY OSANG TS MIDING
Baguio
Dagupan Baguio Baguio Baguio Alabat Baguio Baguio Masbate Surigao Baguio Baguio Baguio
730.3
722.6 709.6 698.7 678.8 673.0 649.7 605.3 603.5 564.7 546.6 536.3 534.2
05/15/80
05/27/03 07/09/86 11/05/80 10/28/74 12/27/75 09/28/68 05/25/76 12/04/76 11/18/68 11/17/53 07/25/80 08/23/78
MAY 10 - MAY 20
MAY 25 - MAY 29 JUL 06 - JUL 10 NOV 01 - NOV 07 OCT 25 - OCT 29 DEC 26 - DEC 28 SEP 23 - OCT 01 MAY 12 - MAY 27 DEC 02 - DEC 07 NOV 12 - NOV 22 NOV 12 - NOV 19 JUL 20 - JUL 26 AUG 20 - AUG 27
Source:Climate Data Section, Climatology and Agrometeology Division, PAGASA,DOST
Trends in the Extreme Rainfall Intensity Philippines* (1951 2008)
o In most parts of the country, the intensity of rainfall is increasing
Trends in the Frequency of Extreme Daily Rainfall in the Philippines* (1951 2008)
oMost parts of the country are generally increasing in trend but not all are significant.
oWhile significantly decreasing trend is found in Palawan.
Extreme Climate Variability (ENSO of 2010)

Mar. 2010 Feb. 2010 Jan. 2010 Dec. 2009 Nov. 2009
Rainfall Maps
Oct. 2009
Sept. 2009
Black areas: Excessive rains Red areas: rainfall deficit

DEVELOPING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO FOR THE PHILIPPINES
What are climate scenarios?
A scenario is: a plausible description of a possible future state of the world (Parry and Carter, 1998) Not a forecast or a prediction, but alternative views of what the world could look like in the future
1A.31
Why do we need climate scenarios?
To provide data for impact/adaptation assessment studies; To aid in strategic planning and/or policy formation;
To structure our knowledge (or ignorance) of the future;

Precise forecasts of future climate is not possible. An alternative approach is to construct Climate Scenarios.
1A.32
Representation of the Philippines in different model resolution
25 km
50 km
300 km
The future is uncertain
...
The IPCC SRES scenarios contain various driving forces of climate change, including population growth and socio-economic development . These drivers encompass various future scenarios that might influence greenhouse gas (GHG) sources and sinks, such as the energy system and land use change. The evolution of driving forces underlying climate change is uncertain. This results in a very wide range of possible emissions paths of greenhouse gases.
Climate Projection for the Philippines (2020,2050 & 2100)
0.9 to 1.1 C
1.9 to 2.2 C
2.6 to 3.4 C
November 21-22, 2011
Observed mean temperature has increased by 0.64 C during the last 60 years (1951-2010). Projected increase of 1 to 2.0 C under a medium emission scenario is expected by 2020 & 2050 and 0.7 to 1.7 C increase under a high emission scenario. The figure shows that it is only after 2050 that the temperature increase showing the climate response to high or medium range scenarios will start to diverge. This is due to the fact that Ghg gases already in the atmosphere have long lifetimes and will take at least 30 to 40 years for the atmosphere to stabilize.
Above +2C impacts will be large

0 C Food 1 C 2 C 3 C 4 C 5 C
Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Falling yields in many Possible rising yields in developed regions some high latitude regions
Small mountain glaciers disappear water supplies threatened in several areas Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa
Water
Sea level rise threatens major cities
Ecosystems
Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs Rising number of species face extinction
Extreme Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves Weather Events Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Changes
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system
Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Rainfall(%)
Dry seasons becoming drier.

Wet seasons becoming wetter.
Medium-range Emission Scenario

2020 Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) Mar-Apr-May (MAM) Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) Sep-Oct-Nov (SON) -0.4 to 54.3 % -0.2 to -33.3% -0.4 to 43.1% -0.4 to 30.0% 2050 -0.1 to-25.1-% -1.4 to -39.8% -0.7 to 72.5% -0.5 to 39.0%
Frequency of Extreme Rainfall
Heavy daily rainfall (exceeding 300mm) events will continue to increase in number in Luzon, Visayas & eastern sections of the country.
Frequency of Extreme Temperature

hot temperatures (indicated by the number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35 C) will continue to become more frequent.
Monthly Rainfall Projections for Medium-range emission scenario (A1B) By Climate type
Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)
under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0 Baguio
1600.0 1400.0
Rainfall Amount (mm) Rainfall Amount (mm)

under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0 Casiguran
900.0 800.0 700.0 600.0
1200.0
1000.0 800.0
OBS 2020 2050
500.0
400.0 300.0 200.0
OBS 2020 2050
600.0
400.0 200.0 0.0
100.0
0.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0 Iloilo
600.0
Rainfall Amount (mm)

under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0 Hinatuan
900.0 800.0
500.0
400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0

OBS 2020 2050
700.0 600.0
500.0
400.0 300.0 200.0
OBS 2020 2050
100.0
0.0

under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0 Dumaguete
900.0 800.0
900.0 800.0

under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0 Davao
700.0
600.0
700.0 600.0
500.0
400.0 300.0 200.0
OBS 2020 2050
500.0
400.0 300.0 200.0
OBS 2020 2050
100.0
0.0
100.0
0.0
Tracking the skyhelping the country

Climate Trends and Projections in The Philippines by Rosalina G. de Guzman Assistant Weather Services Chief PAGASA-DOST

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Presentation from the Climate Change Consciousness Week Event Function Rooms 1 & 2, SMX Convention Center, Pasay

City November 21-22, 2011

Climate Trends and Projections in the Philippines

Weather Services Chief, PAGASA/DOST

Is the Climate Changing?

Key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report:

1. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal

Climate change impacts & implications

How is global warming manifested in the Philippines?

Total Damage = PhP11.1 B ~ (USD234 M)

Espinueva & Nilo, 2009

Typhoon Reming (DURIAN) 29 November 2006 in Albay

Typhoon Milenyo (XANGSANE) 28 September 2006 in MM

Affected population 2.0M

Total Damage P5.5B

Affected population 4.0M

Total Damage P6.4B

. The scale of floods in the Philippines is increasing, as is the number of floods.

Source: Office of Civil Defense (OCD).

Climate Trends in the Philippines

What are the manifestations/signals of global warming in the local scale?

Philippine mean temperature

Difference ( C) from 1971-2000)

0.6 0.4 0.2 0

Annual mean temp Smoothed series (5 year running mean)

- 0.0164 - 0.0108 C/year 2005 2010

-0.8 1955 1960 1965

An increase of 0.648C from 1951-2010 (60 years)

Maximum & Minimum Temperature

Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines Period: (1951 2008)

Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines Period: (1951 2008)

Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific Period: (1948-2010)

Visited by an average 19 to 20 TYPHOONS EVERY YEAR

Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines Period: 1948-2010

Number of Tropical Cyclones

TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES

51-80 150 100 50 0 Luzon Visayas Mindanao 61-90 71-00

Recorded Maximum Gustiness during the passage of Tropical Cyclones (1951-2010)

Source:Climate Data Section, Climatology and Agrometeology Division, PAGASA,DOST

Greatest 24-Hr. Rainfall during the passage of Tropical Cyclones (1951-2010)

GREATEST 24-HR. RAINFALL (MM)

Source:Climate Data Section, Climatology and Agrometeology Division, PAGASA,DOST

Trends in the Extreme Rainfall Intensity Philippines* (1951 2008)

o In most parts of the country, the intensity of rainfall is increasing

oWhile significantly decreasing trend is found in Palawan.

Extreme Climate Variability (ENSO of 2010)

Black areas: Excessive rains Red areas: rainfall deficit

DEVELOPING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO FOR THE PHILIPPINES

What are climate scenarios?

Why do we need climate scenarios?

To structure our knowledge (or ignorance) of the future;

Representation of the Philippines in different model resolution

The future is uncertain

Climate Projection for the Philippines (2020,2050 & 2100)

November 21-22, 2011

Above +2C impacts will be large

Sea level rise threatens major cities

Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Rainfall(%)

Dry seasons becoming drier.

Medium-range Emission Scenario

Frequency of Extreme Rainfall

Frequency of Extreme Temperature

Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)