Using Stress Strain Graphs to Identify Wicked Problems Emerging when Resilience in a System Fails

Carl Hastrich
This paper compares two extreme weather events, a flood in Australia and a hurricane in America. Using stress-strain diagrams that are being repurposed from material science to organizational resilience and the ball-and-cup model for ecological resilience I define why the problem of insurance coverage in Emerald Australia is a wicked problem, and why a similar wicked problem has not emerged from the enormous damage in New York. When Hurricane Sandy hit the state of New York and New Jersey many problems were caused. At the time of writing, $42 billion US of problems were caused in the form of damages that needed to be fixed. A larger problem raised was issues of prevention against future damage. What is remarkable to note, is that none of these problems were considered impossible to solve (NPR 2012). $9 billion US was set aside for developing measures to prevent flooding in New York and ideas have already emerged, such as balloons that inflate in the subway, to prevent water from entering the tunnels. Woods and Wreathall (2008) use a stress-strain diagram, originally from the domain of material science, to assess the resilience of an organizational system. In keeping with material science, the stress-strain diagram includes a period of uniform deformity, when a systems reaction to a stress can be predicted. At this time once the stress has been removed, the material will return to its original state with minimal requirements of external resources. This can be seen in a steel rod that returns to its original length after extending slightly after a weight is attached to its length. Within organizational theory, during this time of stress the company continues forward on-plan with all members of the system competently meeting their requirements without having to alter their expected duties. It is said to be linear deformation because processes are in place for people in the system to predictably respond to the stress. The second phase is non-linear, with dramatic responses to small increases in stress. Materials are said to flow, where a solid metal behaves like a liquid, reaching a moment when it changes properties for a period of time after a new force has been applied but not changed. Within an organization this stretch is the measure of adaptability within the company. During this time employees are forced into roles outside of their specific job description, bureaucratic rules and processes are skipped, re-written on the fly or ignored completely, and resources are re-appropriated according to the fluctuating needs. It is chaotic, involves a high state of change and is therefore unpredictable. If stresses occur beyond plastic deformation a breaking point is met and the system fails. The material physically breaks, or the organization is forced to declare bankruptcy, shut down or is taken over by external forces. Woods and Cook (2006) are researching indicators within businesses that signal the organizational system is adapting, or stretching, due to stress. Their goal is to aid managers in being aware of their organizations circumstance and to identify opportunities of resilience to support, or brittle situations that are likely to break.
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Within the stress-strain diagram, it important to note that in the non-linear plastic phase, the material or system does not return to its original state. Resources, or forces, must be introduced to move towards the original state but it will never be exactly the same. In ecological resilience theory, the ball-and-cup model suggests that resilient systems have multiple stable states. When forces, described as disturbances in ecology, exceed the limits of the current state, the system reorganizes around a new state. Woods and Wreathall (2008) suggest the ball-and-cup model is especially valuable when describing what happens when a breaking point is reached, or when the plastic deformation causes failure on a scale that requires the system to function dramatically different once the forces have been removed. In ecological theory some believe that it is impossible for a system to return to its original state and in my research I identify this scenario as an indicator of a wicked problem that is incredibly difficult to resolve. Using the stress-strain terminology, I suggest that while the stresses caused by Hurricane Sandy were high, they did not cause a failure to the resilient system of Yew York. The resilient system was definitely stretched beyond its typical limit of competency, as can be seen by the make-shift barricades dotted around Manhattan, but it was not broken. The invisible insurance mechanisms that protect the city worked acceptably within the conditions and can be expected will function similarly to a future scenario. In January 2011 in Queensland Australia, a flood occurred that caused 75% of the state, which has a land area larger than California and Texas combined, to be declared disaster zones. The influx of insurance claims stalled the system, possibly due to the increased number of complaints and appeals that occurred as homeowners learned that their storm insurance did not cover riverine flood damage. As a result the Federal Government was forced to cover significant quantities of the costs, $5.6 billion AUS in total. This required the dramatic solution of a onetime tax levee to all citizens of Australia not affected by floods to foot $1.6 billion AUS of the bill. While most of the emergency recovery has been successfully resolved, deep issues have emerged in regards to re-establishing normal practices within the systems, i.e. returning it to the original state. The insurance companies, now being legislated by the government to offer transparent flood insurance, are concerned about a lack of mitigation infrastructure investment. The government, whose budgets are being closely reviewed by taxpayers who paid for a disaster that did not affect them, is not in a position to comfortably invest in mitigation. The extreme culmination is an insurance embargo by Suncorp, a company previously celebrated for large payouts after the flood, on the entire town of Emerald. This embargo states that without appropriate mitigation in place, no new policies will be issued and premiums on existing properties will be increased dramatically, as much as ten times the previous year. When reviewed, this decision makes business sense. Suncorp paid out $150 million AUS to properties in which it earned $4 million in premiums. Some of those properties had been flooded three times in four years. The state government spent $11 million AUS on rescue helicoptors, and a levee system has been quoted at $9 - $10 million AUS. When compared to the extraordinary numbers of New York, and when assembled into linear logic, the problem sounds simple to solve. In fact, the dollars per person, according to my own calculations, for mitigation in New York is close to $450 US per person, while in Emerald is $820 AUS per person, almost double. The research into Emerald suggests that has become a wicked problem as the embargo has been in place for over six months, the rainy season is only a few months away, and no solution is on the horizon (update: floods occurred during the rainy season of 2012, but only affected a few of the most regional residents). The concept of a wicked problem is a messy situation that is difficult to define and appears impossible to solve, often due to political, moral and professional conflicts (Ritchey 2011). The situation in Emerald becomes increasingly difficult to define the further you dive into the details. There is no guarantee a levee will solve the problem outlined above and there are grave environmental concerns about disrupting the ecology. Information suggests that the government knew from the beginning that the city was built on a flood plain but it is difficult to identify an exact moment when anyone specific
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might be held accountable. If the city is moved, enormous cost and emotional strain will be incurred, but if the city is to be protected a compromise must be reached by someone, who likely feels they have already extended beyond a reasonable limit. Within my research I quickly realized that Emerald was a wicked problem, but it wasnt until I reviewed the concept of stress-strain relationships in resilient systems that I had a mental model for describing why it had become a wicked problem. As stated earlier, Hurricane Sandy in New York did not break the resilient mechanisms, but the floods of Australia did, particularly around the region of Emerald. While in New York money has been willingly invested to return to normal, in Emerald there is no normal state to return. The system was stressed beyond its ability to adapt and no longer has in built resiliency. A flood, no matter how minor, will currently have an immense impact. Below I use a stress strain diagram to visually describe the differences.

On the left, before the flood, substantial stress could be absorbed for a period of time where by the system was not overly stretched. In the case of Emerald, there was not a high adaptive capacity, and therefore the system did not stretch significantly before failure. In its current state there is such a limited capacity for absorbing stress that almost immediate failure will occur. Without the insurance system involved, the only adaptive capacity exists in non-profit and government funded or run services. The impact of another breakage within the system would likely push the system into an even more undesirable state. Using the ball-and-cup model of multiple stable states within a system, I argue that Emerald has now settled into a new stable state. Unfortunately this stable state is undesirable as it involves a large proportion of uninsured homeowners at high exposure to future weather related disasters. A disaster will likely disrupt the system again, shifting to an even more perilous stable state. The wicked problem arises out of a desire to move away from the undesirable state and return to a desirable state. The wickedness of the problem emerges as the effort is uphill and the consequences largely unknowable, as the original pre-flood state may never exist again. In New York, the current efforts are down hill, and focus on returning to as close to the previous stable state as possible. The mitigation efforts are an addition to the current linear section of the stressstrain curve, and therefore not a wicked problem as a majority of parties within the system are invested in the maintenance of the known and preferred state.

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It is not clear whether these conceptual models help to solve wicked problems, but they may assist in describing the context of the wickedness. It is also possible that indicators of resilience as outlined by Woods and Cook (2006) could then be extrapolated as indicators in the cause and development of wicked problems. It is my hope that the culmination of this research could empower organizations to identify the wicked problems before they form and therefore invest proactively in the prevention or management of wicked problems. It is suggested that this form of investment is currently rare (Woods 2009). The innovation observed in the research is that insights and theories are being translated between different disciplines and knowledge domains. Further research needs to be done to confirm the validity of the theories as applied to new areas. Organizational science may have a lot more to learn from ecology and materials science, but work may be required to make the theories applicable. Most important there is a need for complexity to be captured and communicated with the models, which are currently too linear. The ultimate test is whether these theories can be applied proactively, not just in hindsight, in order to make it possible to identify, while under stress within a system, how problems may be emerging that require urgent attention to solve before the system breaks and they become wicked and potentially unsolvable.

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Annotated Bibliography:
Woods, D.D., Wreathall, J., 2008. Stressstrain plot as a basis for assessing system resilience. In: Hollnagel, E., Nemeth, C., Dekker, S.W.A. (Eds.), Resilience Engineering Perspectives 1: Remaining Sensitive to the Possibility of Failure. Ashgate, Aldershot, UK, pp. 145161.
In this article, Woods and Wreathall use a descriptive concept from material science, the stress-strain diagram, to assess systems resilience in organizations. The authors use a variety of case studies, such as emergency rooms in hospitals, and flight control towers, undertaken by the authors previously and reviewed from other researchers. Their research includes brittle and resilient case studies as context to test their use of the stress-strain diagram. The article is an instructive chapter from a textbook, that includes a review of all the key concepts, an introduction of the stress-strain diagram as a new concept for organizational resilience and a detailed analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the model. The article is deep and highly instructive as it synthesizes many complex concepts succinctly. As Woods and Wreathall have both published widely on this topic I consider them experts and the content highly regarded. The authors suggest their model does not communicate the complexities of resilient systems as it oversimplifies core information that describes the reasoning behind certain behaviours. I see this as an opportunity for my own research to explore. My own understanding of material science suggests that the concept of plastic deformation, and the elasticity of materials is underutilized in the stress-strain model for resilient systems. Therefore, I see an opportunity to propose further research questions that are not currently being discussed.

Gunderson, L. H. (2000). Ecological Resilience - In Theory and Application. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 31, 425-439.
In this article Gunderson offers a cohesive review of the current research in ecological resilience. Included are definitions of core concepts, including comparisons between conflicting theories, using a series of succinctly reviewed case studies as context behind each theory. The research finishes with summaries of how the theories are being applied within ecosystem management. The methodical definitions inform my understanding of this subject area and are the basis for how I refer to systems resilience. The case studies of interpreting and applying the theories, including concepts of driver and passenger organisms and require more space within a future essay to explore. Also critical was understanding the difference between ecological and engineered resilience, moorre the difference between multiple or universal stable states within a system. The visual diagram of the ball and cup model for ecological resilience is something I wish to integrate as an ongoing tool into my research. I trust Gundersons review as this research has been funded by the MacArthur Foundation, which is highly regarding for supporting thought leadership, and integrates many researchers I have previously read within this topic. The main limitation of this article is also its strength for my own research, as the authors have not translated their concepts outside the domain of ecology.

Ritchey, T. (2011). Wicked Problems: Structuring Social Messes with Morphological Analysis. Swedish Morphological Society, 7. Retrieved from www.swemorph.com/book.
This article is edited from a lecture, and is an editorial style review of wicked problems. The article offers a brief overview of the concept including key earlier researchers as historical context. The bulk of the text is a series of lists, summarizing key points with quotes, reflections and insights. As the core case study of my research is a wicked problem I have been struggling to define, the article gives me a structure to compare my research against. Ritchey offers a brief outline of activities that are used to solve wicked problems, offering a case study of software used to generate solutions in a way that can be
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cross referenced for generating scenarios. The software and methodologies he uses are new to me and offer a path for future investigation. The limitation of this article is its brevity and relatively shallow depth, but the source it comes from is a resource that is usually over loaded with information. This suggested to me that while it is a quick review, it was likely a trusted review, and would offer me an excellent platform to begin from. This article helped me frame the topic discussed in my essay, but if I wish to use the insights to solve the wicked problem, I would need much more research.

Bell, J. (2011). Insurance for extreme weather events in Australia-current policy trends, and future directions. Macquarie J Bus L.
This article is a review just after the flood in Queensland, Australia, of the insurance system. It outlines some historical context, legal framework and emerging trends. The author provides a detailed analysis of the existing policies in context of complaints, concerns and confusions that were being discussed in the media at the time. The tone is authoritative, with copious footnotes for all arguments, while being very easy to read and understand. The information within this document gave me the confidence to research insurance as a topic for my major project. The definition of riverine flooding as opposed to storm damage was critical to my understanding of the topic. This even included comparison between insurance companies, and definitions of flash flooding as linked to a direct time period of rain. Several insights, including the historical context of reinsurance influencing the reconstruction of an entire city, and the review of insurance deficiencies ultimately became crucial to the framing of my wicked problem. Most importantly it explained the framework by which flood coverage would become mandatory in Australia and unwittingly triggered the wicked problem I continue to investigate.

References
Elsworth, S. (2012, May 7). Towns too risky for us, says insurer Suncorp | News.com.au.News.com.au | News Online from Australia and the World | NewsComAu. Retrieved from http://www.news.com.au/money/money-matters/towns-toorisky-for-us-says-insurer-suncorp/story-e6frfmd9-1226348201751 Episode 414: After The Flood, The Backup Plan : Planet Money : NPR. (2012, November 2). NPR : National Public Radio : News & Analysis, World, US, Music & Arts : NPR. Retrieved from http://www.npr.org/blogs/ money/2012/11/02/164202295/episode-414-after-the-flood-the-backup-plan Fanning, E. (2012, May 18). The Truth Is In The Flood Maps (Part Two) | The Global Mail. The Global Mail. Retrieved from http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/the-truth-is-in-the-flood-maps-part-two/241/ Fanning, E. (2012, May 17). The Truth Is In The Flood Maps | The Global Mail. The Global Mail. Retrieved from http://www. theglobalmail.org/feature/the-truth-is-in-the-flood-maps/236/ Gundrson, L. H. (2000). Ecological Resilience - In Theory and Application. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 31, 425-439. Miko, T. (2012, May 11). Suncorp defends ban in Emerald | CQ News. Browse the latest Homepage articles | CQ News. Retrieved from http://www.cqnews.com.au/news/suncorp-defends-ban-on-policies-in-emerald/1375968/ Ritchey, T. (2011). Wicked Problems: Structuring Social Messes with Morphological Analysis. Swedish Morphological Society, 7. Retrieved from www.swemorph.com/book. Suncorp wont offer new policies in flood-prone towns - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation). (2012, May 8). ABC.net.au. Retrieved from http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-07/suncorp-wont-offer-new-policies-for-flood-pronetowns/3994612 Superstorm Sandy recovery cost at $42 billion in New York | abc7.com. (2012, November 26). ABC Owned Television Stations. Retrieved from http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/story?section=weather&id=8898559 U.S. Metro Economies. (2012). The United States Conference of Mayors and The Council of Metro Economies and the New American City, 116. Retrieved from http://usmayors.org/metroeconomies/0712/FullReport.pdf. Woods, D. D. (2009). Escaping failures of foresight. Safety Science, 498-501. Woods, D. D., & Cook, R. I. (2006). Incidentsmarkers of resilience or brittleness. Resilience Engineering. Concepts and Precepts. Ashgate, Aldershot, UK. Woods, D.D., Wreathall, J., 2008. Stressstrain plot as a basis for assessing system resilience. In: Hollnagel, E., Nemeth, C., Dekker, S.W.A. (Eds.), Resilience Engineering Perspectives 1: Remaining Sensitive to the Possibility of Failure. Ashgate, Aldershot, UK, pp. 145161.

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