Financial Intelligence Report

The Global Resource to Protect and Grow Your Wealth

Special Report

Warren Buffetts 8 Best Investment Plays

By Brian OConnell Whats the secret to Warren Buffetts investment success? The secret, according to the Sage of Omaha, is that there is no secret. All there is to investing, he says, is picking good stocks at good times and staying with them as long as they remain good companies. Buffett has done that in spades over the past 40 years at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway, one of the most successful investment companies in the history of Wall Street. The $44 billion company is like a block of granite in an otherwise fragile investment environment. Astute investments in brand-name value plays like Coca-Cola, H&R Block, American Express and Comcast have fueled Berkshire Hathaways rise to the top of the global investment period. All solid, no-nonsense companies that offer investors the three things that Buffett prizes in his investment picks: steady growth, good management and no surprises. Buffetts results speak for themselves. A $10,000 investment in Berkshire Hathaway in 1965 would be worth nearly $30 million by 2005. In contrast, $10,000 in the S&P 500 would have risen to roughly $500,000. Consequently, Buffett is a Zen-like figure to both Wall Street and Main Street. Business writers and stock market analysts jot down his every utterance. Berkshire Hathaway annual meetings are almost mythical events, with a small army of Berkshire investors and Buffett zealots hanging on his every word. And he always delivers. Prior to Berkshire Hathaways six-hour annual general meeting in May 2002, investors began lining up for seats at 4 a.m. Attendees were not disappointed. Among the treats? A film of Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett playing a ukulele and singing, When the NASDAQs down, youll never frown, Berkshires here to stay. In typical fashion, the folksy Buffett later led a visit to the local Dairy Queen down the street, which, by the way, he owned. So, whats on Buffetts mind these days? In this Financial Intelligence Report special report, Warren Buffetts 8 Best Investment Plays, well lay it all out for you. From why China is the next big opportunity on Wall Street to why, thanks to rampant American consumerism, the U.S. dollar is in great peril, well show you what Wall Streets greatest living legend considers to be the biggest economic and investment plays on the world stage. Eight of them, in fact, all culled from the laser-sharp mind of the Sage of Omaha. Well also delve into Buffetts personal investment philosophy and detail, point by point, the investment traits and characteristics that Buffett has used over the years to drive his mega-billion company, Berkshire Hathaway, to the top of the investment charts. Its a story worth hearing and NewsMax is here to tell it.

The Buffett Way

Before we examine Buffett's eight key financial plays for 2005, as explained by the guru himself, the investment philosophy that earned the Sage of Omaha $40 billion is worth examining. Call it the Buffett Way as many people do. In this day and age, when traditional investment like stocks and bonds ebb and flow along with the economic tides, seemingly tethered to nothing and batted about in

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global financial markets on an almost daily occurrence, there is comfort in the knowledge that a visionary like Warren Buffett exists. His company, Berkshire Hathaway, is one of the most successful businesses in American history, if not the most successful. As noted above, a $10,000 investment in Berkshire Hathaway when Buffett took control in 1965 would be worth over $50 million today. Buffet himself has a personal net wealth of more than $40 billion, making him the second-wealthiest individual in the U.S. (behind Microsoft founder Bill Gates). But it wasnt so long ago that the so-called experts on Wall Street were laughing at Warren Buffett, mocking his cautious, carefully measured methodology of investing in the financial markets. To the self-proclaimed gurus, Buffetts take on things seemed out of tune. The rules of the game had changed, and he just didnt get it. Warren Buffett should say, Im sorry, fumed Harry Newton, publisher of Technology Investor Magazine, in early 2000. How did he miss the silicon, wireless, DSL, cable, and biotech revolutions? That was a year when America Online stock rose sixfold and Amazon.com had rocketed by 1,000 percent in a year, while shares in Berkshire Hathaway, the investment company Buffett had built virtually from scratch, had climbed cue ominous music only 11 percent. But, as history has proved, the Buffett Way won out in the end, as the Dot-Com bubble exploded, leaving millions of Americans with huge holes in their investment portfolios and more than a few experts with egg on their faces experts who right now would kill for 11 percent investment returns. Yes, wise old Warren (a lifelong techno-phobe, as he confesses on the Berkshire Hathaway Web site) stuck with boring blue chips like Gillette, CocaCola and American Express, saying he couldnt understand these newfangled companies. What did Buffett know that the Dot-Com geniuses didnt? How to look for good value plays. Buffett and his partner, Charles Munger, began looking closely at DotCom company valuation sheets and came away convinced that there was more folly than fortune in all those celebrated new-economy companies. Instead, they returned to the grounds they had tilled before and knew so well value stocks. They invested in companies like Procter and Gamble that made products that people actually used. It is hardly necessary to point out that this was during the age of irrational exuberance, when the NASDAQ was

flying and Berkshires stock was flopping. While the experts considered Buffetts fixation on value (and values) old hat, the Sage proved them all wrong. But now its an old hat that lots of people would like to try on to see if it fits, just like Cinderellas glass slipper.

The Buffett Saga

Warren Buffetts story is quintessentially American. He is by most counts the second-richest man in America (the richest is Bill Gates) with a fortune estimated by Forbes magazine at more than $44 billion. He is the only U.S. billionaire to have made his money entirely through investing, and today, along with Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker, both chairmen of the Federal Reserve, he is arguably the most respected voice of financial America. His natural habitat is not Wall Street or Washington, but the unpretentious Midwest heartlands. Weve told you about his moniker The Sage of Omaha, but that is not his only nickname. Buffett is also known as the Oracle of Omaha, Omaha being the pleasant but largely unremarkable Nebraska city on the banks of the Missouri River where he was born and raised, where he made his fortune and where he lives to this day, in the same gray stucco house he bought for $31,500 back in 1956. Buffett is today the best-known Nebraskan on earth, a gray-haired, no-nonsense Man of the Heartland who has been triumphantly vindicated by financial market events time and time again. He is not so much a financial institution as a national institution, the object of a cult that attracts around 22,000 people to Omaha every May for Berkshire Hathaways annual meeting. Buffett himself has called the occasion the Woodstock of capitalism. Some people buy a Berkshire Hathaway share just to attend (not as small a matter as it sounds, for old-fashioned Warren has never been one for fancy devices such as stock splits, and a single share of Berkshire Hathaway stock can cost upward of $80,000). In this age when CEO stands in many minds for chief embezzlement officer, Buffett embodies those Midwest virtues of probity, modesty and common sense Americans like to think of as part of the national character. It should be noted that this same part of the world spawned Arthur Andersen, once held as another paragon of honesty and good housekeeping. But Buffett has kept his halo. He is a CEO for the nation, the self-made man who made his fortune honestly, the scourge of less-principled peers.

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Affable and avuncular with the media and, especially, with Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett can be very combative when it comes to getting his point across even if his intended target is one of the most powerful men in the world. A few years back, Buffett and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan agreed to disagree about the effect that socalled derivative securities would have on financial markets. Greenspan said they had reduced risk. Buffett saw things differently. In his letter to shareholders in 2003, Buffett called them weapons of mass destruction.

bargain prices, and the Berkshire Hathaway phenomenon was born. Now, when Buffett speaks, ordinary Americans not only listen, they are enraptured. But the truly sacred texts of Warren Edward Buffett are Berkshire Hathaways annual letters to shareholders, studied at business schools across the country and collectively published in 1998 as The Essays of Warren Buffett. They are pithy and wise, sprinkled with the endearing admissions of human failure that a deity may occasionally permit himself. The 2001 edition, for instance, contains a huge mea culpa for his failure to protect General Re, one of Berkshire Hathaways re-insurance units, from the shockwaves of the September 11 terrorist attacks. Buffett well knew that a mega-catastrophe (albeit more likely natural than man-made) was possible. I violated the Noah rule, he groveled. Predicting rain doesnt count; building arks does. Few shareholder letters quote Horace. But BHs in 2001 noted that Many shall be restored that now are fallen and many shall fall that are now in honor which pretty succinctly describes the reversals of reputation, between 1999 and now, of Buffett on the one hand and AOL-Time Warner on the other, not to mention disgraced erstwhile superstars like Ken Lay of Enron and WorldComs Bernie Ebbers.

A Student of Graham
The foundations of the Buffett legend were laid young. The son of a stockbroker and Republican congressman, he made his first trade in 1941 when he was just 11, buying three shares in a company for $38 apiece. They dropped to $27, then rose to $40, at which point the cautious youth sold, earning a tiny profit but missing a later climb to $200. These events sowed the seeds of his lifelong investing philosophy, that share-buying is for the long term. As a child he was industrious in the extreme running a double paper route and collecting lost golf balls, selling them and putting the proceeds toward buying 40 acres of farmland, which he then rented out. College in Omaha was followed by a graduate degree at Columbia University in New York City, where he met and worked with Benjamin Graham, the author of The Intelligent Investor and eventually Buffetts financial mentor.

Buffetts Keys to Profitable Investing

What strategies does Buffett deploy when picking stocks? For starters, he looks for companies with solid financial performance managed by seasoned and savvy executives. Buffett also favors companies with histories of above-average earnings growth. His holdings in American Express and Coca-Cola are good examples of that.

Grahams strategy was to search for what he called cigar butt companies, no longer of interest to the market and thus undervalued, but which still had a few puffs of life in them. In 1962 Buffett found one a rundown Here is a list of additional attributes Buffett looks for Massachusetts textile concern called when buying stocks: Berkshire Hathaway. He poured what Buffett-isms Simple Businesses. Buffett likes to resources it had into other businesses, In the business world, keep things simple and he likes his notably insurance. the rearview mirror companies to do the same. Again and again, is always clearer than It was a stroke of genius. Insurance Buffett has railed against the kinds of the windshield. companies may not be hugely profitable companies that seem too complicated or that intrinsically, but they have a float, up-front are difficult to valuate. His avoidance of premium payments from policyholders, from which claims Internet and technology companies during the are settled only later. The cash pile grew during the early Dot-Com bubble is the most famous manifestation of his 1970s bear market on Wall Street. keep it simple dictum. Buffett jokingly calls himself a Buffett used the money to buy stakes in companies at techno-phobe, but in reality he shies away from technology

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and telecom stocks. He likes to base his stock picks on, among other things, what a company will look like 10 years down the road. Technology companies, he says, are much too volatile and risky for that kind of analysis. The 10-year rule also applies in a backward sense Buffett will consider only those companies with a good 10-year track record. Most technology companies havent been around that long and, for their lack of seasoning and earnings history, tend to fall off Buffetts radar. Return on Equity. Another key criterion for Buffett is a companys return on equity (ROE). Again, he favors a 10-year plan, where he can predict ROE 10 years out. Companies that cant be gauged accurately dont make it into the Buffett portfolio. Buffett also favors companies that dont need much capital. Such companies, he has said, generate significantly higher returns on equity. Cash on the Barrel. The Buffett Way is long on companies that have deep pockets. Companies that have what Buffett refers to as ample cash flow are companies that have plenty of financial resources both to pay their bills and to keep growing. Low Debt. Companies that can limit and manage their debt are high on Buffetts priority list. Insurance companies (he owns both Geico and General Re) are particular favorites in this regard. With the Buffett Way, low debt equals significant room for growth. Buffetts emphasis on low debt is grounded in reality. With limited debt, earnings growth is based on shareholders equity as opposed to borrowed money. Emphasis on Value. Historically, Buffett has targeted investments in undervalued companies with good longterm growth potential. Identifying such companies isnt easy, but Buffett has mastered the technique. In a nutshell, Buffett favors stocks that are unjustifiably low based on their intrinsic worth. He bases his calculations of intrinsic worth by analyzing a companys fundamentals. As with most bargain hunters, Buffett targets companies that are good revenue producers and are capably managed, though underpriced. Buffett is also famous for his aversion to reading stock market tea leaves. Thats not what he is about. Quite simply, he selects stocks solely on the basis of their overall potential as a company. Once Buffett adds a stock to his portfolio, he will hang on to it for years even decades. Buffett could care less if other investors ever get around to recognizing the stock markets value. His only concern is that his companies earn money and lots of it.

The Big Six

There are other highly visible cues to take from the Sage on his investing philosophy. In fact, Buffetts investing criteria are outlined in his yearly reports to shareholders. They are: 1. Large purchases (at least $50 million of before-tax earnings). 2. Demonstrated consistent earning power (future projections are of no interest to him, nor are turnaround situations). 3. A history of earning good returns on equity while employing little or no debt. 4. Management in place (he cant supply it). 5. Simple businesses (if theres lots of technology, he wont understand it). 6. An offering price (he doesnt want to waste his or the sellers time by talking, even preliminarily, about a transaction when the price is unknown). Source: Berkshire Hathaway annual report Buffett has said candidly that, if a company falls within these criteria, dont call an investment banker, call him.

For Buffett, Its All About Businesses Not Stocks

Buffett can be a bit of a contrarian, sliding away from his own investment philosophy from time to time. Some Buffett watchers were surprised by his modest investments in struggling companies like Level 3 Communications, a fiber optics network operating in the red, and The Williams Cos., an energy group. Buffett is known for preferring old-economy companies and firms that are already in the black. He doesnt like technology companies because he says that he doesnt understand technology. He invests in companies like Gillette because he loves the fact that millions of men grow whiskers every night. But the investments were not a complete surprise to true Buffett aficionados. Buffett had said that if markets fell significantly, he would use that situation as a buying opportunity and he did. In the end, Buffetts investment philosophy is also attractively simple. He believes that investors should be buying a business, not simply a stock. Buffetts annual report is nothing if not readable quite famously so and is perhaps the best window into the way his mind works.

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found the bottom of the cup more often for Tiger Woods One of his annual reports contained what is probably as has to do with luck, not skill. No, like Woods, Buffett has clear a one-paragraph summary of Buffetts investment something we mere mortals have no real hope of emulating philosophy as can ever be stated: Whenever we buy which leads to the real Buffett paradox, a phenomenon common stocks we approach the transaction as if we that is quite the opposite of the supposed random walk were buying into a private business. We look at the theory. Just as Woods is far more likely to ascribe his economic prospects of the business, the people in charge of success to hard work than to his supernatural talent, so too running it, and the price we must pay. We do not have in does the greatest investor of our time make investing seem mind any time or price for sale. Indeed, we are willing to easier than it actually is. hold a stock indefinitely so long as we expect the business to increase in intrinsic value at a satisfactory Listening to him speak, reading his many rate. When investing, we view ourselves as Buffett-isms writings on investing, absorbing his message, business analysts not as market analysts, Only buy something even watching his investment moves over the not as macroeconomic analysts and not even that youd be perfectly years, an investor is more likely to gain hope as security analysts. happy to hold if the than to lose it. How difficult can it be, after market shut down all, to buy Coca-Cola and hold it forever Thus the Buffett paradox. On the one for 10 years. a practice at the core of Buffetts investment hand, this paragraph is so steeped in oldfashioned values largely vanished from trading-obsessed Wall Street that one can immediately understand why Buffett has followers. On the other hand, its clear that Buffetts investing style just isnt that difficult to understand. Its nothing more than a balanced fourlegged stool: Buffett cares about the future prospects of the business. He wants to know that management has both integrity and drive. He doesnt want to overpay for the stock. And whether the shares go up or down, he wont sell so long as the fundamentals remain the same. Pretty simple, right? methodology? It should make the average investor feel a lot more confident, knowing that Buffett firmly rejects all the fancy-pants trading techniques so beloved by modern Wall Street techniques that make it seem as if the big boys have an insurmountable advantage over the rest of the hoi polloi. Simplicity is the key.

Buffettology Redux
So why doesnt everyone invest like Buffett? For one thing, very few people can stomach the ups and downs of the market without wanting to jump on and off. For most investors, it is difficult not to panic when the market tanks, and it can be tricky to resist jumping on a really hot stock. The even-keeled thinking necessary to be a great investor is an extremely rare thing. Buffett, however, has that trait in spades. He is happy when markets tank because it means he can buy stocks he wants at a cheaper price.

The Buffett Paradox

So, is it a bit over the top to call Warren Buffett a modern-day miracle worker? Probably not.

Its not as if he is parting the Red Sea, though his investment record an average annual gain of over 30 percent since 1965 is not too far off. He is certainly a The second reason most people dont invest like Buffett living, breathing antithesis of the random walk theory is because his methods are a lot more beloved by economists attempting to Buffett-isms complicated than they appear. When Buffett rationalize market behavior the theory We simply attempt to talks about the economic prospects of a that stock movement is random because all be fearful when others potential investment, he is talking about the information about the future prospects of a are greedy and to be position of the business 10 years down the company has already been built into the greedy only when others road. So if he can see the business remaining share price. They try to explain away are fearful. dominant for the next decade, hell consider Buffetts unusual success by pointing out buying the stock. Buffett has an uncanny that in any game of chance someone has to ability to predict very accurately which companies will be come out on top and it just happens to dominant players in 10 years a gift not many investors be him. can claim. But of course everyone knows thats not true. Its sort This gift may be partly based on Buffetts genius when it of the equivalent of saying that the reason the golf ball

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comes to numbers. Accounting, he likes to say, is the language of business. It is a language in which his own fluency is unsurpassed, and which gives him an enormous competitive advantage. Usually, all he needs is a quick glance at a balance sheet to know whether hes interested in buying a company or not because he finds meaning in numbers that most investors are not capable of understanding. Many students of Buffettology have struggled to get their heads around accounting ideas that are second nature to him. A classic example is intrinsic value, which is Buffetts way of evaluating the true worth of a company and which he describes as the only logical approach to evaluating the relative attractiveness of investments and businesses. He has said, Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life. This definition may be simple for Buffett, but its clearly not that simple for the rest of the investment community, who bang their heads against the wall trying to play catchup with his successes. What does the future hold in the eyes of this great investment visionary? Buffett is concerned about the trade deficit and the decline of the value of the U.S. dollar. In a recent interview, he said: It seems to me that a $618 billion trade deficit, rich as we are, strong as this country is, well, something will have to happen that will change that. Most economists will still say some kind of soft landing is possible. I dont know what a soft landing is exactly, in how the numbers come down softly from levels like these. On risky trading, Buffett is very clear: Minimize risk. There are more people [like hedge-fund managers] that go to bed at night with a hair trigger than ever before, he says. Its an electronic herd, they can give vent to decisions that move billions and billions of dollars with the click of a key. There will be some kind of stampede by that herd. When you have far greater sums than ever before, in one asset class after another, that are held by people who operate on a hair-trigger mechanism, then they lend themselves to more explosive outcomes. People with very short time horizons with huge sums of money, they can all try to head for the exits at the same time. The only way you can leave your seat in burning financial markets is to find someone else to take your seat, and that is not always easy.

Warren Buffetts Eight Top Investment Plays

So here we are. Now, thanks to our Financial Intelligence Report special report Warren Buffetts 8 Best Investment Plays for 2005, you know what Warren Buffett looks for in picking great companies and great investment plays. Its a combination of tried-and-true value selections and some contrarian bets on higher-risk investment vehicles like derivatives and global currencies. Lets take a look at the most recent additions to the Buffett portfolio and see if they dont make sense for you: 1. Brewskies and Broadband. True to form, Berkshire Hathaways 2005 portfolio included a stable of Buffett standbys like Coca-Cola, American Express and Gillette. Newer wrinkles include a big bet on media giant Comcast (Buffett & Co. now own 10 million shares); a significant new investment in Anheuser-Busch, buying 200 million shares; and a big sell-off in sports consumer apparel behemoth Nike. The Anheuser-Busch play comes straight out of the Buffett playbook. The self-styled King of Beers is a consumer giant mainstay with a track record of strong sales no matter how the underlying economy performs. Simply put, people drink Budweiser in good times and bad, roughly in the same quantities. Its the kind of wellmanaged, dependable company to which Buffett is known to gravitate. He gave no explanation for his sell-off of Nike (cutting Berkshires holdings from 6 million to 2.5 million) he typically does not comment on specific trades. Buffett also sold his entire 13.5-million-share stake in hospital operator HCA and sold smaller stakes in Wells Fargo and information management company Iron Mountain. Two other potential Buffett picks are iShares Dow Jones US Utilities and Sysco. Each offers a unique sense of contrast to the standard Buffett investment philosophy. While neither is currently included in Berkshire's portfolio, both stocks possess the qualities Buffett generally looks for in his picks. The iShares ETF offers shareholders steady returns from the utility sector while Sysco, a giant in food distribution and marketing, parallels Buffetts value philosophy. Sysco is a well-managed company that has a solid foothold in its market. It also has low debt and lots of cash to fuel increased company growth.

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2. Derivatives. The buy-and-hold billionaire is up to his ears in exotic investments known as derivatives, which are used to bet on things like the weather and the direction of interest rates. Derivatives were at the core of the 1994 bankruptcy of Californias Orange County and the 1998 demise of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. Buffett once called derivatives financial weapons of mass destruction, so youd think he would steer clear. But his company, Berkshire Hathaway, has acknowledged a $307 million pretax loss in the first three months of this year thats due to a $21.4 billion position in currency contracts, which are derivatives that hit pay dirt when the dollar falls. Problem is, the dollar is rallying. The greenback was up 4 percent against the euro in the first quarter and an additional 8 percent since then, and it shows no signs of stalling. Some experts estimate that Buffetts losses this year have surpassed $1 billion. Buffett has indicated that hes sticking with his bet. Theres no change in the underlying factors affecting currencies, he said, adding that in the long run, the U.S. trade deficit must weaken the buck. Its not all bad news for Buffett fans. He first bet against the dollar as it was falling in 2002 and remains in the money overall, even though the dollar has rebounded in recent months. 3. Too Much Cash Lying Around? Try an Energy Play. One of the problems with Berkshire is that sometimes theres just too much of that pesky cash coming in, and its Buffetts job to get it out the door and invested wisely. In an effort to find opportunities to invest big money at reasonable terms, Buffett has turned his attention to energy investments. Recently, he has said that hes planning to invest $10-$15 billion in energy investments over and above what had initially been planned. But should this shift in strategy serve as a signal to investors to look to energy investments for their own portfolios? Back in the day when Enron went bust and Buffett was able to do what he does so well, which was to buy a dollars worth of assets essentially for pennies in the energy sector, there were bargains to be found. In todays market, however, with oil hovering around $60 per barrel, is it reasonable to think that, rather than buying distressed assets where a profit is clearly to be made, its now possible to enter a wave in the energy sector that will see prices for energy commodities go up for quite a long time? Not really, says Buffett. Were not buying bargains in the field, but we think were getting our moneys worth and it does offer the chance, occasionally, to employ really large amounts of capital. Hes not seeking any

bonanza profits off of his energy investments. Buffett tells investors that hes not investing in energy because he thinks the returns on equity in the energy sector are going to go up, but rather because its a reasonable place to put money. I mean, the electric utility business, says Buffett, its not a place to get rich, but its a place to stay rich and thats the way we look at it. And yes, I like to stay rich. So its no surprise to see that Buffett added a $9.5 billion investment in energy giant PacifiCorp (he had already purchased electric utilities company MidAmerican Energy in 2000). Both companies offer exactly what Buffett likes in a low interest rate environment predictable, if somewhat boring, returns. 4. Still Bearish on the Dollar. Buffett remains concerned about what he believes is an inevitable consequence of current U.S. trade practices if the U.S. is going to consume more than it produces, he says, we have to expect to give away a little bit of the country. He argues that in 2004, the U.S. had a trade deficit of well over $600 billion, of which nearly one quarter was with China. In other words, the U.S. bought $160 billion worth more goods from China than we sold. The problem, he says, is that if the Chinese are going to send us shoes and furniture and textiles, the U.S. clearly has to give them something in return little pieces of paper called U.S. dollars. But the Chinese dont hold onto those little pieces of green paper. Theyre converted into other assets such as U.S. government bonds just as the central bank has done. And sometimes the Chinese buy U.S. assets. Buffett warns that the U.S. is over-consuming to a point of real danger: Were sending out IOUs on this country or sending out ownership of this country at the rate of $2 billion a day. And while $2 billion a day in an $11 trillion-plus economy may not sound so bad, it adds up. We have gone from being a country that owned more of the rest of the world than they owned of us, says Buffett, to the country that probably is about $3 trillion in the hole right now in terms of our net-worth position. It will have an effect, it may be a month from now, it may be five years from now, who knows, but it is not without consequences. This thinking explains Buffetts current position on the dollar. He admits that he doesnt know whether the dollar will be up or down in the short run, but he says that five years from now, if theres no change in U.S. trade practices, the dollar will be significantly weaker. If you agree with Buffett that the dollar will continue to

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sink, you can easily invest in foreign currencies through venues like Evergreen Bank. As Buffett tends to favor the euro, a good fund thats bearish on the dollar and strong on the euro is the Merk Hard Currency Fund, a mutual fund that invests in a basket of hard currencies assembled to protect against the fall of the dollar. (www.merkinvestments.com) 5. If You Cant Beat Em, Join Em. In mid-June 2005, shares of China Life Insurance Co., Ltd. jumped by 4.9 percent, driven by rampant rumors that Buffett had bought a large quantity of China Life ADRs. Hong Kong media reported that he had acquired 8.7 million ADRs in China Life in May, and had also bought another 10 million ADRs in early June. Buffett reportedly has plans to become a strategic investor in China Life. Rumors are still mulling about that indicate he will purchase an additional 6.3 million ADRs in the company, raising the total to 25 million. Buffett has bought shares in Chinas oil giant PetroChina Company Limited as well, earning over HKD 8 billion from the deal. Clearly, Buffett is bullish on all things China. 6. The Real Estate Bubble. Buffett owns the same house in Omaha that hes owned since the 1950s. He also recently sold a house he owned in Laguna Beach in Southern California. He agrees with many of the economic gurus that the U.S. real estate market is in a state of disequilibrium and that it could be a dangerous place to sink your money. The real estate matter was a topic Buffett publicly discussed at his annual board meeting with his longtime business partner Charlie Munger. Heres how the exchange went: Buffett: A lot of the psychological well being of the American public comes from how well theyve done with their house over the years. If indeed theres been a bubble, and its pricked at some point, the net effect on Berkshire might well be positive [because the companys financial strength would allow it to buy real-estate-related businesses at bargain prices]. Certainly at the high end of the real estate market in some areas, youve seen extraordinary movement. People go crazy in economics periodically, in all kinds of ways. Residential housing has different behavioral characteristics, simply because people live there. But when you get prices increasing faster than the underlying costs, sometimes there

Munger: You have a real asset-price bubble in places like parts of California and the suburbs of Washington, D.C. Buffett: I recently sold a house in Laguna for $3.5 million. It was on about 2,000 square feet of land, maybe a twentieth of an acre, and the house might cost about $500,000 if you wanted to replace it. So the land sold for something like $60 million an acre. Munger: I know someone who lives next door to what you would actually call a fairly modest house that just sold for $17 million. There are some very extreme housing price bubbles going on. Buffett: (on the trade deficit and the value of the dollar) That really is the $64,000 question. It seems to me that a $618 billion trade deficit, rich as we are, strong as this country is, well, something will have to happen that will change that. Most economists will still say some kind of soft landing is possible. I dont know what a soft landing is exactly, in how the numbers come down softly from levels like these. There are more people [like hedge-fund managers] that go to bed at night with a hair trigger than ever before, its an electronic herd, they can give vent to decisions that move billions and billions of dollars with the click of a key. We will have some exogenous event, we will have that. There will be some kind of stampede by that herd. When you have far greater sums than ever before, in one asset class after another, that are held by people who operate on a hair-trigger mechanism, then they lend themselves to more explosive outcomes. People with very short time horizons with huge sums of money, they can all try to head for the exits at the same time. The only way you can leave your seat in burning financial markets is to find someone else to take your seat, and that is not always easy. Munger: The present era has no comparable referent in the past history of capitalism. We have a higher percentage of the intelligentsia engaged in buying and selling pieces of paper and promoting trading activity than in any past era. A lot of what I see now reminds me of Sodom and Gomorrah. You get activity feeding on itself, envy and imitation. It has happened in the past that there came bad consequences. Buffett: I have no idea on timing. Its far easier to tell what will happen than when it will happen. I would say that what is going on in terms of trade policy is going to

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Munger: A great civilization will bear a lot of abuse, but there are dangers in the current situation that threaten anyone who swings for the fences. Buffett to Munger: What do you think the end will be? Munger: Bad. So, the Sage says be careful with residential real estate. A host of companies and sectors will be hit by a real estate bust, so choose your investments carefully.

expenses]. Someone once asked Bill Buckley what he would do if he actually won his race for New York mayor back in the 1960s and he said, First thing Id do is ask for a recount. Well, thats what Id do at GM. Youve got a $90 billion pension fund, $20 billion set aside for healthcare liabilities, and the whole equity value of the company is $14 billion. Thats not sustainable. Something will have to give.

Lunch and Buffetts Latest

How about lunch with the sage of Omaha? Every year since 2000, Warren Buffett has to ask this question and has to wait for the gavel to come down in an auction 7. Equities, Not Bonds. In his 2005 address to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett explained why to find out the answer. The lunches began after Buffetts his portfolio exposure to bonds is minimal and why his wife, Susan, introduced him to Williams Glide Memorial exposure to stocks is maximized. United Methodist Church. In an effort to help the churchs Glide Foundation a San Francisco non-profit If you had to make a choice between long-term bonds organization that offers programs for the poor, hungry and at around 4.5 percent and equities for the next 20 years, I homeless Buffett donates a lunch to be auctioned off to would certainly prefer equities, he told the audience of the highest bidder each year. 22,000 shareholders. But if people think Tough Old Barnacle they can earn more than 6 to 7 percent a The billionaire Buffett hosts the auction Buffett clung to his year, theyre making a big mistake. I dont winner and up to seven friends for lunch in value investing think were in bubble-type valuations in Omaha, Nebraska, where Buffett lives and strategy like a barnacle equities or anywhere close to bargain works, or in New York City. In 2003, the to the hull of a boat. valuations. auctions were moved from San Francisco to Once he was asked to the ether world via eBay, where they have If you told me I had to go away for 20 suggest the best time to become an annual online pilgrimage for the sell stock and years, I would rather take an index fund famously replied, over long-term bonds. Youll get a chance to Buffett faithful. Never. do something extremely intelligent with People looking to learn from the wise one your money in the next few years. But right bid every year, like Mohnish Pabrai, a now there doesnt seem to be a clear enough direction to managing partner of Pabrai Investment Funds in Lake conclude anything dramatic. Forest, California, and Singapore resident Jason Choo, who won the auction in 2004 with a $250,000 price tag. Pabrai 8. Baby, You Cant Drive My Car. Buffett is extremely has bid on the lunches for three years and lost every time bearish on auto stocks, primarily because of the heavy and as a passionate disciple of Buffett for more than a pension and benefit liabilities the big American car makers decade, he plans to bid again next year. are paying to workers. Says Buffett, both GM and Ford have a steep legacy cost structure, with contracts put in The 2005 auction, brought in a winning bid of place decades ago, that make it very difficult for them to $351,100, all of which goes to the Glide Foundation. be competitive in todays world. Just imagine if theyd What does the winner get for his $350,000 lunch? Some been made to sign contracts that made them pay several people consider it a cost-effective way to get one-on-one time with the master, and the opportunity to set the more tons per steel than their competitors have to, people agenda for the conversation. Says Buffett about what next would feel thats untenable, he adds. [GM and Ford] years winner can expect for their investment: Well talk have to pay contracts that give them immense obligations about anything you want to talk about. Except I wont tell for health-care and retirement annuities at high cost. Their what were buying. I dont tell anyone that. competitors can buy steel and other commodities no cheaper, but the competitors dont have nearly the same So make sure youre ready to place your bid for lunch with the master next June on eBay. level of costs for these [health-care and retirement

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In the meantime, FIR can tell you about some of Buffetts latest maneuvers. We have been following Warren Buffett like a hawk this year, and we will continue to closely monitor the investment savants movements. Heres the latest: The Oracle of Omaha is apparently trying to grab a piece of insurance giant Lloyds of London and thats a controversial move considering the industry has struggled in 2005. So what does the visionary Buffett know that the rest of us dont? In this case, the details are in the back story. Sources tell the London Telegraph that Buffett has approached at least one managing partner at Lloyds, offering money for a share in next years business. Nigel Hanbury, chief executive of Hampden Agencies, tells the paper that Buffett looks poised to pour more money into insurance in 2006. Premiums are expected to be very good for 2006 and probably 2007, he says. The price of insurance for energy risks like oil rigs is expected to soar by 400%, and areas that have been hit by hurricanes could see premiums up by 100%. In addition, it was recently disclosed that Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway holds a 5.7% stake in AnheuserBusch, making it the largest shareholder. As of October 2005, Berkshire held almost 45 million

shares of the worlds largest brewer, as well as close to 20 million shares in super-retailer Wal-Mart. Buffett had long sought to keep these holdings secret in order to defend against copycat investing.

An American Icon and a Role Model for Investors

They dont make Americans like Warren Buffett anymore. Tough, plain-spoken, and with a genuine concern toward average investors the little guys getting a fair shot on the stock market, Buffett is a real man of the people, much more Main Street than Wall Street. Hes famous for berating Wall Street on its emphasis of churn-and-burn brokerage mindset, and has publicly stated that every American investor would be better off if he or she executed only 20 stock trades in their entire lives. He has also pounded the table a time or two on the subject of personal liberty and the importance of Americans taking responsibility over their own lives. Warren Buffett is the quintessential American success story. What makes him unique is that he genuinely believes there is a success story in every American, just waiting to blossom. If, that is, the owners of those success stories spend a lot of time doing what Buffett does: digging for those cigar butt companies that offer value to discerning investors. To Buffett, its value that counts and hes spent the past 40 years proving just that.

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A Snapshot of the Largest Berkshire Hathaway Holdings, December 31, 2004

Berkshire Hathaway portfolio Company
American Express (AXP, news, msgs) American Standard (ASD, news, msgs) H&R Block (HRB, news, msgs) Coca Cola (KOK, news, msgs) Comcast (CMCSA, news, msgs) Comdisco (CDCO, news, msgs) Costco Wholesale (CSCO, news, msgs) Dean Foods (DF, news, msgs) First Data Corp. (FDC, news, msgs) Gannett (GCI, news, msgs) Gap Inc. (GPS, news, msgs) The Gillette Co. (G, news, msgs) HCA Inc. (HCA, news, msgs) Iron Mountain (IRM, news, msgs) M&T Bank Corp. (MTB, news, msgs) Moodys (MCO, news, msgs) Mueller Industries (MLI, news, msgs) Nike (NKE, news, msgs) Outback Steakhouse (OSI, news, msgs) Petrochina (PTR, news, msgs) Pier 1 Imports (PIR, news, msgs) Sealed Air (SEE, news, msgs) Servicemaster (SVM, news, msgs) Shaw Communications (SJR, news, msgs) Torchmark (TMK, news, msgs) USG Corp. (USG, news, msgs) Washington Post Co. (WPO, news, msgs) Wells Fargo (WFC, news, msgs) Wesco Financial (WSC, news, msgs)

2004Q3
151,610,700 10,497,900 14,350,600 200,000,000 5,000,000 1,489,628 5,254,000 - 375,500 8,000,000 3,447,600 15,000,000 96,000,000 13,500,000 6,935,750 6,708,760 24,000,000 1,361,900 6,000,000 1,818,800 659,000 8,000,000 1,113,300 5,611,600 22,000,000 2,029,379 6,500,000 1,727,765 56,448,380 5,703,087

Shares 2004Q4
151,610,700 10,497,900 14,350,600 200,000,000 10,000,000 1,509,433 5,254,000 8,000,000 3,447,600 15,434,243 96,000,000 5,000,000 6,708,760 24,000,000 1,361,900 2,500,000 1,818,800 659,000 8,000,000 1,113,300 5,611,600 22,000,000 2,036,979 6,500,000 1,727,765 54,483,520 5,703,087

+/-%
0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 1% 0% New 0% 0% 3% 0% -100% -28% 0% 0% 0% -58% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.37% 0% 0% -3.5% 0%

Source: SEC filings

* Berkshire Hathaway does not publicly announce the dates of trades until December 31 of each calendar year. ** This list does not include all companies in the Berkshire portfolio.

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Financial Intelligence Report offers the following informative reports on a variety of topics. These can be mailed to you for a charge of only $10 per report. For details, contact customer service at 800-485-4350.
Issue 1 (Sept 03): Crisis Investing: Protect & Grow Your Wealth Issue 2 (Oct 03): High-Yield Dividend Stocks Issue 3 (Dec 03): Protecting Yourself Against the Next Market Decline Issue 4 (Jan 04): Sector Investing: How To Beat the S&P Every Year Issue 5 (Feb/Mar 04): Gold: The Ultimate Insurance Issue 6 (Apr 04): Oil: The Critical Key To the World Economy Issue 7 (May 04): The Other Warren Buffett: Meet Walter Schloss Issue 8 (Jun 04): The Dangerous Dollar: Protecting Your Wealth By Investing Abroad Issue 9 (Jul 04): David Tice: Protect Yourself From the Coming Bear Market Issue 10 (Aug 04): Interest Rates and Bonds: What You Need to Know Issue 11 (Sept 04): The Baby Boomer Crisis Looms: Prepare Before Its Too Late Issue 12 (Oct 04): The Coming Baby Boom Storm: Part II, The Pension Crisis Is Already Here Issue 13 (Nov 04): Royalty Trusts Pay High Yields Issue 14 (Dec 04): Wayne Rogers Beats the Market So Can You Issue (Jan 05): 2005: Bushs Boomlet Issue (Feb 05): Sir John Templeton: Reveals the Future of the Stock Market, Real Estate and Life Issue (Mar 05): Cash In On the Commodity Bull Market Issue (Apr 05): The Inflation Lie Issue (May 05): Switzerland: Still the Ultimate Investment Issue (June 05): Sector Investing: Navigate the Coming Bear with Profit Issue (July 05): Special FIR Briefing With General Alexander Haig Issue (Aug 05): Warren Buffetts 8 Best Investment Plays for 2005 Issue (Sept 05): Sector Riches in Biotech and Healthcare Issue (Oct 05): Goodbye, Mr. Greenspan: How You Can Profit From His Recession Issue (Nov 05): The Coming Gold Bull Market Issue (Dec 05): 2006 FIR Investment Outlook

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