Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
08 August 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Unde r V a lue d ......................................................................6
Chemicals
Telecommunication Services
Over Valued ................................................................................... 15
Transport
Under Valued ....................................................................................... 15
Utilities
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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08 August 2013
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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08 August 2013
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
08 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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08 August 2013
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
448.70
300.80
455.40
Neutral
Buy
Target
613
Beta
0.71
CHEMRING GROUP
306.10
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
366
0.66
COBHAM
299.50
190.10
307.70
Neutral
Neutral
303
0.85
MEGGITT
542.00
366.20
562.00
Neutral
Neutral
533
1.28
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1194.00
799.39
1240.00
Neutral
Neutral
1177
1.00
SMITHS GROUP
1306.00
1011.00
1397.00
Neutral
Sell
1173
0.77
1929.00
1505.00
1929.00
Neutral
Sell
1733
0.52
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
346.40
201.00
354.00
Neutral
Neutral
341
1.97
INCHCAPE
630.00
353.30
645.00
Neutral
Neutral
637
1.42
LOOKERS
123.50
65.00
125.00
Neutral
Sell
111
1.22
28.25
13.50
29.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
44
1.09
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
282.15
178.95
333.85
Neutral
Sell
-838
1.95
700.00
541.00
769.90
Neutral
Buy
883
1.18
73.47
31.38
75.69
Neutral
Sell
1.86
320.90
220.70
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-135
1.39
STANDARD CHARTERED
1593.50
1315.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3478
1.64
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
566.50
415.00
588.50
Neutral
Sell
502
0.58
DIAGEO
2101.50
1672.50
2136.50
Neutral
Neutral
2260
0.54
SABMILLER
3140.00
2599.00
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
4321
0.91
BARR (AG)
Target
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALENT
355.10
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Buy
450
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
318.00
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
550
1.12
CARCLO
351.25
342.75
503.00
Neutral
Sell
144
0.74
2508.00
2164.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3164
1.05
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
255.90
204.20
275.00
Neutral
Buy
308
1.07
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2811.00
2190.00
2887.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4287
1.43
VICTREX
1503.00
1309.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1334
1.16
SYNTHOMER
199.90
141.80
225.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
395
1.10
ZOTEFOAMS
204.00
175.50
225.00
Neutral
Buy
296
1.00
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
116.00
64.00
118.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
284
Beta
BALFOUR BEATTY
242.70
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1155
0.83
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
354.60
140.70
355.20
Sell
Strong Buy
623
1.70
1.02
0.56
BELLWAY
1477.00
837.50
1480.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2926
2322.00
1387.00
2340.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3566
0.58
BOOT (HENRY)
186.00
119.50
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
373
0.75
1.11
795.00
467.30
851.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1470
CARILLION
299.50
244.80
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1577
1.09
CLARKE (T)
57.25
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
395
0.80
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
GALLIFORD TRY
284.00
215.75
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1157
0.52
1427.00
1090.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
928
1.04
995.00
610.00
1019.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3018
0.97
KELLER
1069.00
476.75
1161.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2443
1.29
KIER GROUP
1457.00
1106.00
1500.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5452
1.01
70.00
50.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
231
1.06
1.33
151.50
78.00
152.75
Neutral
Buy
208
677.50
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4640
0.71
17.75
11.25
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
62
1.05
NORCROS
1247.00
601.26
1305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2046
1.02
REDROW
PERSIMMON
251.00
134.30
255.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
466
0.90
SIG
182.70
94.15
185.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
540
1.70
46.50
43.00
287.50
Sell
Strong Buy
4331
0.89
112.40
49.10
113.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
232
1.61
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
1659.00
1013.00
1713.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4514
1.95
WOLSELEY
3254.00
2449.53
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6144
1.35
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1172.00
999.50
1365.00
Neutral
Sell
1043
0.69
643.50
522.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
877
1.14
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
132.75
105.50
137.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
273
1.27
INVENSYS
496.60
217.33
509.50
Neutral
Sell
273
1.40
LAIRD
208.00
171.10
249.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
442
2.10
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1410.00
1209.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1284
1.11
RENISHAW
1580.00
1494.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2050
1.29
SPECTRIS
2213.00
1549.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2796
1.53
66.25
66.25
303.67
Neutral
Sell
-519
0.77
TT ELECTRONICS
188.00
114.00
188.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
427
1.61
XAAR
841.00
227.00
898.00
Neutral
Sell
417
1.06
DIALIGHT
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
08 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 7 of 17
FALSE
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
100.75
54.25
101.75
Neutral
Buy
134
1.19
BODYCOTE
628.00
337.60
640.00
Neutral
Neutral
627
1.60
CASTINGS
415.00
291.00
425.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
668
0.95
VESUVIUS
448.10
263.19
480.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1059
2.23
FENNER
349.10
305.90
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
549
1.45
HALMA
567.00
399.90
568.50
Sell
Sell
410
0.78
419.00
306.25
480.00
Neutral
Buy
529
1.32
1418.00
837.50
1427.00
Sell
Strong Buy
4629
1.41
311.60
220.30
318.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
519
1.90
2925.00
2157.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
650
1.00
279.80
185.90
284.90
Neutral
Sell
244
1.66
56.75
35.40
80.16
Neutral
Sell
43
0.79
SPIRAX-SARCO
2891.00
1932.53
2928.35
Sell
Sell
2121
0.84
VITEC GROUP
598.50
559.00
740.00
Neutral
Sell
461
1.37
WEIR GROUP
2179.00
1566.00
2474.00
Neutral
Neutral
2178
1.44
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
392.10
392.10
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
759
0.44
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
285.20
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Buy
381
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
386.30
321.90
398.50
Neutral
Buy
466
0.56
TESCO
365.05
307.90
387.75
Neutral
Sell
192
0.68
81.50
23.50
100.50
Neutral
Sell
53
0.79
THORNTONS
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1933.00
1267.00
2031.00
Neutral
Sell
1654
0.61
CRANSWICK
1159.00
732.50
1178.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1789
0.33
DAIRY CREST
508.00
332.90
510.00
Neutral
Sell
378
0.91
DEVRO
322.50
289.90
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
519
0.37
94.75
54.50
125.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
250
1.26
823.50
634.50
883.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1368
0.67
2572.00
2235.00
2885.00
Neutral
Sell
2223
0.50
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
26.00
22.13
29.50
Neutral
Buy
39
0.66
540.00
266.40
540.00
Sell
Sell
462
0.51
1550.00
1000.00
1563.00
Neutral
Sell
1244
1.29
655.00
585.00
701.50
Neutral
Sell
353
0.90
44.90
16.00
46.33
Neutral
Neutral
46
1.46
211.50
61.80
211.75
Neutral
Sell
59
1.06
32.25
20.13
34.00
Sell
Strong Buy
111
1.01
HALFORDS GROUP
366.10
222.50
405.20
Neutral
Buy
516
0.71
JD SPORTS FASHION
925.00
651.00
925.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1768
0.49
DARTY
Target
Beta
74.25
39.00
80.00
Neutral
Buy
111
1.23
KINGFISHER
390.70
262.20
404.90
Neutral
Buy
449
0.91
482.10
348.80
488.80
Neutral
Buy
645
0.60
60.75
44.75
71.00
Neutral
Buy
74
0.97
429.50
202.00
492.75
Neutral
Sell
156
0.38
NEXT
5025.00
3320.00
5030.00
Sell
Neutral
5404
0.61
TED BAKER
1920.00
899.00
1973.00
Neutral
Sell
978
0.56
89.00
45.00
89.50
Neutral
Sell
76
1.51
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Health
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
134.00
129.50
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
113
0.39
CONSORT MEDICAL
823.50
660.50
839.00
Neutral
Sell
574
0.35
OPTOS
166.75
106.75
222.75
Neutral
Neutral
173
1.17
782.50
638.00
800.00
Neutral
Sell
664
0.45
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
784.50
601.00
794.50
Neutral
Neutral
768
0.42
HEADLAM GROUP
413.00
278.00
413.00
Neutral
Sell
341
0.88
80.50
55.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
116
0.70
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
860.50
528.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
272
0.73
CSR
513.50
308.10
607.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1550
1.13
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
66.00
29.00
83.25
Neutral
Sell
55
0.94
239.10
235.10
624.00
Neutral
Buy
318
1.04
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
140.70
118.00
170.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
234
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
157.00
140.00
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-205
0.94
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1265.00
1019.00
1416.00
Neutral
Sell
-521
0.52
AMLIN
405.30
364.10
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1571
0.40
BEAZLEY
218.70
162.20
242.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
975
0.50
CATLIN GROUP
497.60
441.00
552.50
Neutral
Neutral
477
0.22
HISCOX
650.50
456.58
660.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1951
0.46
913.50
723.00
917.00
Neutral
Buy
1242
0.32
121.60
107.70
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
747
0.39
NOVAE GROUP
499.25
345.00
507.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3524
0.38
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2505.00
2092.00
2628.00
Neutral
Buy
3615
0.95
ENTERPRISE INNS
140.70
55.50
147.00
Neutral
Sell
117
1.64
TUI TRAVEL
380.80
195.00
401.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
736
0.96
921.50
700.50
965.00
Neutral
Sell
624
0.26
GREENE KING
848.50
556.50
897.50
Neutral
Sell
643
0.88
LADBROKES
207.70
164.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
268
0.87
1985.00
1524.00
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1710
1.10
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
551.00
456.00
582.50
Neutral
Neutral
596
1.34
409.90
262.70
426.80
Neutral
Sell
284
1.00
134.30
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
63
1.24
13.12
6.10
13.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
77
1.16
157.50
120.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
584
0.96
0.70
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
560.00
317.50
560.00
Neutral
Sell
398
WETHERSPOON (JD)
703.50
447.90
767.00
Neutral
Neutral
709
0.57
WHITBREAD
3221.00
2096.00
3303.00
Neutral
Sell
2230
0.97
WILLIAM HILL
449.80
271.02
494.50
Neutral
Sell
262
0.80
MARSTON'S
156.70
109.70
164.50
Neutral
Sell
14
1.16
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
370.80
294.10
388.40
Neutral
Sell
350
1.18
CHESNARA
259.00
163.50
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
511
0.64
199.50
128.00
201.90
Sell
Strong Buy
490
1.69
OLD MUTUAL
198.10
165.10
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
414
1.52
PRUDENTIAL
1190.00
770.00
1203.00
Sell
Neutral
1217
1.66
637.50
336.20
641.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
6913
0.84
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
08 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
140.63
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
922
0.42
829.50
709.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1056
0.47
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
Target
Beta
42.50
31.00
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-42
1.06
824.50
451.25
828.00
Sell
Strong Buy
3556
1.07
1075.00
747.00
1105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5566
0.96
INFORMA
524.50
380.50
541.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
327
1.63
ITE GROUP
282.00
183.50
307.40
Neutral
Buy
201
1.44
ITV
167.10
81.25
168.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1369
1.46
1.20
JOHNSTON PRESS
16.00
5.20
19.00
Neutral
Buy
720
1325.00
1119.00
1350.00
Neutral
Neutral
309
0.65
97.63
42.75
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2283
0.86
286.50
269.00
288.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
732
0.13
35.50
26.85
36.45
Neutral
Strong Buy
346
0.52
STV GROUP
157.50
81.50
157.50
Neutral
Sell
240
0.82
ST.IVES
166.75
72.00
170.00
Neutral
Sell
159
1.48
TRINITY MIRROR
116.00
36.75
122.25
Neutral
Sell
-289
1.59
UBM
705.50
636.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1421
1.33
167.50
102.00
167.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1390
0.85
1175.00
788.00
1210.00
Neutral
Sell
-827
1.27
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1395.00
1207.00
2084.00
Neutral
Sell
1194
1.84
194.75
161.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
202
1.07
ANTOFAGASTA
844.50
784.50
1381.00
Neutral
Neutral
812
1.42
1844.50
1666.50
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2803
1.48
GLENCORE XSTRATA
270.45
256.85
397.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
971
#NA
LONMIN
313.30
240.84
403.71
Sell
Buy
417
2.08
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4366.00
3972.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2762
0.47
RIO TINTO
2953.50
2582.00
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2336
1.53
861.00
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2632
2.24
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
VEDANTA RESOURCES
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1194.00
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
891
0.84
BP
443.55
416.60
483.30
Buy
Strong Buy
1006
1.02
CAIRN ENERGY
266.90
251.80
305.00
Neutral
Sell
-27
1.33
8.20
7.15
12.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
112
0.84
852.00
716.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
574
1.35
65.50
48.50
96.00
Neutral
Sell
-56
1.35
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
Beta
349.70
321.30
400.20
Neutral
Buy
405
1.45
2149.00
2098.00
2365.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8216
0.83
371.90
319.90
404.30
Neutral
Buy
460
0.53
1042.00
977.00
1468.00
Neutral
Sell
692
1.05
888.00
720.50
908.50
Neutral
Sell
725
1.44
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
08 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
135.00
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
264
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
395.00
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
332
0.70
4590.00
3536.00
4950.00
Neutral
Neutral
4634
0.30
Target
Under Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.53
0.36
3.58
Neutral
Sell
-3
0.91
3222.00
2792.50
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
8983
0.51
BTG
381.90
300.30
397.90
Neutral
Sell
213
0.73
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
685.00
473.00
780.00
Neutral
Buy
924
0.18
1670.00
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Buy
1915
0.52
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
1.48
1.33
2.80
Buy
Sell
-2
0.57
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Sell
-6
0.93
2374.00
1727.00
2442.00
Neutral
Sell
1528
0.70
SKYEPHARMA
80.50
43.50
100.50
Neutral
Buy
102
0.66
VERNALIS
23.75
19.38
27.38
Neutral
Sell
11
0.86
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Under Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
427.90
300.00
445.00
Neutral
Buy
638
1.18
BRITISH LAND
586.50
506.00
658.00
Neutral
Buy
748
1.05
2350.00
1890.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4411
1.23
547.00
425.00
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1015
1.06
HAMMERSON
518.00
448.60
554.00
Neutral
Neutral
496
1.24
DERWENT LONDON
Target
Beta
INTU PROPERTIES
317.80
300.60
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
489
1.13
920.50
761.50
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1572
1.15
26.00
24.25
40.75
Neutral
Sell
-136
0.81
LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY
116.20
103.20
121.40
Neutral
Sell
-1
0.33
MCKAY SECURITIES
146.25
131.50
155.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
246
0.66
385.50
325.00
454.50
Neutral
Sell
233
0.39
331.75
312.50
363.53
Neutral
Sell
94
0.30
0.64
44.00
26.74
44.75
Neutral
Sell
-330
SEGRO
REDEFINE INTL.REIT
300.70
221.60
313.60
Neutral
Sell
-225
1.81
SHAFTESBURY
628.00
516.00
668.00
Neutral
Buy
764
1.03
205.00
172.50
223.00
Neutral
Sell
19
1.04
0.93
0.70
2.52
Neutral
Sell
-891
0.93
452.20
245.00
475.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1128
1.01
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
www.intellisys.uk.com
08 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
354.50
210.50
365.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
798
34.25
22.75
37.50
Sell
Sell
-54
0.64
CLS HOLDINGS
1111.00
645.00
1120.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3050
0.75
DAEJAN HOLDINGS
4030.00
2706.00
4179.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7298
0.48
200.75
143.00
209.00
Neutral
Neutral
194
0.96
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
Target
Beta
0.70
GRAINGER
184.00
93.00
187.50
Sell
Sell
113
1.57
HELICAL BAR
286.00
178.00
302.50
Neutral
Sell
204
0.82
25.00
20.50
29.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
238
0.64
6187.50
4187.50
6187.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
14980
0.69
87.50
50.00
90.50
Sell
Sell
-205
1.04
RAVEN RUSSIA
68.75
61.50
79.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
218
1.48
630.00
374.40
664.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2266
0.74
86.00
71.50
88.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
382
0.33
SAVILLS
SMART (J)
ST MODWEN PROPS.
316.00
193.10
333.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
636
1.60
UNITE GROUP
378.00
214.75
403.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1714
1.77
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
127.80
113.00
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
128
0.67
2458.00
1776.97
2588.15
Neutral
Sell
1514
1.49
COMPUTACENTER
510.50
333.29
564.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1166
0.89
KOFAX
335.50
260.75
347.25
Neutral
Sell
308
1.06
AVEVA GROUP
INNOVATION GROUP
Target
Beta
30.00
18.63
30.00
Sell
Sell
22
0.78
798.50
531.08
812.50
Neutral
Buy
921
0.82
PHOENIX IT GROUP
158.25
130.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
245
0.69
81.00
64.00
85.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
239
0.54
2081.00
1275.00
2137.00
Neutral
Neutral
2209
0.79
353.20
289.36
368.18
Neutral
Buy
444
0.69
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
378.80
269.40
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1262
1.11
BREWIN DOLPHIN
274.30
144.60
275.50
Sell
Strong Buy
671
0.70
9149.50
8000.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
98230
0.84
436.50
260.00
437.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1474
0.96
0.67
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
CHARLES TAYLOR
Target
Beta
194.00
155.00
195.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1669
1082.00
770.00
1107.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4974
0.86
104.00
88.90
110.40
Neutral
Sell
70
0.84
4.30
0.55
4.57
Sell
Sell
-135
0.63
HENDERSON GROUP
HELPHIRE GROUP
170.00
101.70
180.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
832
1.46
ICAP
390.00
280.80
406.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
840
1.04
483.00
279.50
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2250
1.69
INVESTEC
427.30
358.40
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1689
1.57
1607.00
930.00
1622.00
Sell
Strong Buy
8939
1.11
90.60
71.30
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-5101
1.36
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1617.00
1208.00
1691.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5654
0.73
SCHRODERS
2501.00
1393.00
2560.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8430
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1977.00
1107.00
2000.00
Sell
Strong Buy
11149
1.28
www.intellisys.uk.com
08 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
247.00
157.75
255.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
883
0.88
AGGREKO
1631.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4328
1.13
AMEC
1075.00
965.50
1172.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3424
1.09
705.50
267.00
730.00
Neutral
Buy
1027
1.65
1202.00
892.50
1209.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2709
0.49
580.00
358.00
604.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2438
0.80
1346.00
1009.00
1409.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2879
0.53
599.00
233.50
599.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1717
0.42
1028.00
713.00
1057.00
Neutral
Sell
215
0.54
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
CAPITA
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
60.50
32.80
68.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
499
0.81
COMPASS GROUP
886.50
671.50
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2049
0.74
BERENDSEN
841.00
514.00
847.50
Sell
Strong Buy
3478
1.03
DE LA RUE
991.50
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Buy
1476
#NA
DIGNITY
1501.00
900.00
1568.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3203
0.24
DIPLOMA
603.00
420.10
627.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1573
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
258.20
200.00
278.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
959
1.01
ESSENTRA PLC
828.50
500.50
830.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1432
1.16
G4S
226.90
207.50
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
918
0.53
HAYS
104.40
68.20
106.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
474
1.06
HOMESERVE
251.20
185.60
293.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1007
0.88
INTERSERVE
507.50
319.00
519.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3802
1.26
3161.00
2697.00
3453.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4944
0.80
47.50
27.50
50.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
121
1.11
0.63
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
24.25
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
225
MENZIES (JOHN)
750.50
573.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1839
1.38
462.20
346.40
462.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
869
1.41
MITIE GROUP
272.00
248.00
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1096
0.52
38.00
38.00
156.00
Buy
Strong Buy
732
0.28
OFFICE2OFFICE
1115.00
684.00
1130.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2268
0.73
PREMIER FARNELL
PAYPOINT
228.00
165.50
236.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
745
1.42
REGUS
188.60
96.00
189.20
Neutral
Sell
57
1.40
96.80
76.10
100.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
279
1.26
REXAM
508.00
420.70
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1837
0.85
RICARDO
450.50
340.00
451.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
1729
0.89
ROBERT WALTERS
270.00
176.25
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1051
1.19
RPC GROUP
460.00
378.00
477.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1580
0.80
RPS GROUP
246.00
195.50
274.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1037
1.51
SERCO GROUP
620.00
535.00
683.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2454
0.59
SHANKS GROUP
88.00
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
280
1.49
RENTOKIL INITIAL
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
59.25
23.50
64.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
321
1.20
199.75
84.00
199.75
Sell
Strong Buy
583
0.65
56.00
40.50
59.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
344
0.91
413.50
295.25
415.00
Sell
Strong Buy
2383
0.81
99.00
42.50
99.00
Sell
Strong Buy
639
0.80
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
328.50
212.50
344.00
Neutral
Buy
414
0.88
39.52
31.86
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
78
0.68
698.00
542.50
749.00
Neutral
Sell
258
0.55
84.85
68.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
118
1.21
1348.00
814.00
1390.00
Neutral
Sell
800
0.05
197.70
154.45
200.20
Neutral
Sell
106
0.51
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
08 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Transport
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
298.30
183.00
300.50
Neutral
Sell
233
1.24
452.50
350.00
455.00
Neutral
Buy
595
1.05
CLARKSON
1885.00
1150.00
1896.00
Sell
Sell
1335
0.85
EASYJET
1386.00
530.00
1448.00
Neutral
Sell
864
0.76
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
104.90
92.00
212.39
Neutral
Strong Buy
282
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1044.00
618.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
784
0.74
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1544.00
1220.00
1595.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2726
0.99
NATIONAL EXPRESS
251.50
164.50
256.10
Neutral
Neutral
248
1.40
NORTHGATE
385.25
202.00
390.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
636
1.34
STAGECOACH GROUP
322.90
265.90
337.60
Neutral
Buy
442
0.98
75.25
43.75
79.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
232
0.96
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
392.40
310.80
394.90
Neutral
Buy
586
0.52
NATIONAL GRID
771.50
678.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
995
0.46
PENNON GROUP
679.00
598.00
766.50
Neutral
Sell
628
0.62
SSE
1576.00
1320.00
1676.00
Neutral
Buy
2277
0.41
SEVERN TRENT
1764.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1525
0.36
716.00
647.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
757
0.48
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
08 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
DISCLAIMER
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys is the trading name of Intellisys
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intellisys is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of quoted company
shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to present an
objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial sector or
stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and proprietary
systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to be
accurate but Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of
the source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely
upon the Intellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice
specific to their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this
report. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or
completeness or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted to the accuracy or
sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. In
no event will Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited, Intellisys or any of its officers, employees or agents be
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