7/8/2013

OBJECTIVE
To understand the concept of probability and its relation to the normal distribution.

I Want your Body, not your Tail

Probability & the Normal Distribution
Psych 110 Day 8

OUTLINE
What is probability? Probability and the normal distribution Probabilities and proportions for scores from a normal distribution The role of probabilities in inferential statistics

INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

ANG WALANG KAMATAYANG EXAMPLE NG MARBLES IN JARS

Role of inferential statistics: use sample data as basis for answering questions about the population. To accomplish this, inferential procedures are typically built around the concept of probability. The relationships between samples and populations are usually defined in terms of probability.
50 black marbles 50 white marbles 90 black marbles 10 white marbles

Jar 1

Jar 2

By knowing the makeup of a population, we can determine the probability of obtaining specific samples.

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THE ROLE OF PROBABILITY IN INFERENTIAL STATISTICS

Remember the goal of inferential statistics? We will reach this goal in a two-stage process. Inferential Statistics Population Probability
1. Identify the types of samples that probably would be obtained from a specific population 2. Reverse the probability rules to allow us to move from samples to population.

THE ROLE OF PROBABILITY IN INFERENTIAL STATISTICS

Sample

DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY
For a situation in which several outcomes are possible, the probability for any specific outcome is defined as a fraction or a proportion of all the possible outcomes.

WHAT IS PROBABILITY?
N O U N : S O M E T H I N G T H A T I S PR O B A B L E

Ex: If the possible outcomes are identified as A, B, C, D, and so on, then

PROBABILITY & PROPORTION

These are simply two ways of describing the same thing. What is the probability of selecting a king from a deck of cards? is the same with What proportion of the whole deck consists of kings?

NOTATION SYSTEM
Use p to denote the probability of a specific outcome. Probability values can be expressed either as a fraction, decimals, or percentages. Decimals are preferred. Probability values range from 0 (the event never occurs) to 1 (the event always occurs).

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RANDOM SAMPLING
A random sample requires that
(1) each individual in the population has an equal chance of being selected and (2) the probabilities must stay constant from one selection to the next if more than one individual is selected.

PROBABILITY AND THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

Sampling with replacement

THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION FOLLOWING A Z-SCORE TRANSFORMATION

NOTE THAT
z-scores measure positions in a distribution in terms of standard deviations from the mean. The graph shows the percentage of scores that fall in each of the sections. The sections on the L side of the distribution have exactly the same areas as the corresponding sections on the R side (symmetrical). Because the locations in the distribution are identified by z-scores, the percentages shown in the figure apply to any normal distribution regardless of the values for the mean and standard deviation.

HOW DO WE ANSWER PROBABILITY QUESTIONS ABOUT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION? The population of adult heights forms a normalshaped distribution with =68 inches and =6 inches. What is the probability of randomly selecting an individual from this population who is taller than 80 inches? That is: p(X>80) = ?

INTRODUCING YOUR NEW BFF: THE UNIT NORMAL TABLE

Ex: z=+0.25

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HOW TO FIND PROPORTIONS/PROBABILITIES FOR SPECIFIC Z-SCORE VALUES USING THE UNIT NORMAL TABLE
a) What is the probability of selecting a z-score value greater than z = 1.00? b) What is the probability of selecting a z-score less than z = 1.50? c) What is the proportion of the normal distribution contained in the tail beyond z = - 0.50?
TIP: Always start with a sketch of the distribution & shade the appropriate portion.

REMEMBER
1. The body always corresponds to the larger part of the distribution whether it is on the R-hand or the L-hand side. The tail is always the smaller section whether it is on the R or the L. 2. The proportions on the R-hand side are exactly the same as the corresponding proportions on the L-hand side. To find proportions for negative z-scores, look up the corresponding proportions for the positive value of z. 3. Although the z-score values change signs (+ and -) from one side to the other, the proportions are always positive.

HOW TO FIND THE Z-SCORE LOCATION THAT CORRESPONDS TO SPECIFIC PROPORTIONS

a) For a normal distribution, what z-score separates the top 10% from the remainder of the distribution? b) For a normal distribution, what z-score values form the boundaries that separate the middle 60% of the distribution from the rest of the scores? a) z = 1.28 b) z = - .84 & z = .84

PROBABILITIES AND PROPORTIONS FOR SCORES (X) FROM A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

HOW TO FIND PROPORTIONS/PROBABILITIES FOR SPECIFIC X VALUES (SCORES)

PROBLEM: It is known that IQ scores form a normal distribution with = 100 and = 15. What is the probability of randomly selecting an individual with an IQ score less than 130? p(X < 130) = ? SOLUTION 1. Transform X values into z-scores. 2. Use the unit normal table to look up the proportions corresponding to the z-score values.

HOW TO FIND PROPORTIONS/PROBABILITIES LOCATED BETWEEN TWO SCORES

PROBLEM: The MMDA conducted a study measuring driving speeds on a major highway. They found an average speed of = 58mph with = 10. Distribution was approximately normal. What proportion of the cars are travelling between 55 and 65 mph? p(55 < X < 65) = ?
What about p(65 < X < 75) = ?

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HOW TO FIND SCORES CORRESPONDING TO SPECIFIC PROPORTIONS/PROBABILITIES

PROBLEM1: Scores on the UPCAT form a normal distribution with =500 and = 100. What is the minimum score necessary to be in the top 15% of the UPCAT distribution? SOLUTION
15% = .15 (or .1492 in unit normal table) corresponds to z = 1.04 Is z-score positive or negative? (Its positive. Why so?) 1.04 = 1.04(100) = 104 points X = 500 + 104 = 604 Thus, you must have an UPCAT score of at least 604 to be in the top 15% of the distribution.

HOW TO FIND SCORES CORRESPONDING TO SPECIFIC PROPORTIONS/PROBABILITIES

PROBLEM2: Find the range of values that define the middle 80% of the distribution of UPCAT scores.

Probability helps us decide exactly where to set the boundaries in order to determine whether a treatment has a significant effect or none.

THE ROLE OF PROBABILITIES IN INFERENTIAL STATISTICS

1. Find the proportion of the normal distribution associated with the following sections of a graph:
a) z > 0.80 b) z < - 2.00

2. For a normal distribution, find the z-score location that:

a) separates the highest 30% from the rest of the distribution b) separates the lowest 40% from the rest of the distribution

SEAT WORK

3. For a normal distribution with = 80 & = 10, find:

a) p(X>85) = ? b) p(75 < X < 100) = ?

4. For a normal distribution with = 100 & = 20,

a) What score separates the top 40% from the bottom 60% of the distribution? b) What scores form the boundaries for the middle 60% of the distribution?