Earth Topic
How Fragile
We Are!
As Mother Earth’s resource limits are coming close to getting diminished,
T
scientists, geologists and conservationalists are putting in their maximum efforts
to permeate awareness about environmental challenges.
Two decades ago, the Montreal Protocol
was adopted to protect the ozone layer from
depletion. It was the first-ever international
agreement on the regulation of chemical
pollutants. The Protocol was characterised
by Kofi Annan as “one of the great success
stories of international cooperation.” As a re-
cently released simulation of Earth without
the Montreal Protocol shows, there would
have been grim consequences for a business
as usual approach. Among other things, this
simulation predicts an Earth with a danger-
ously insufficient ozone layer by 2050.
Emissions trends & GDP
The relationship between economic growth
and rising carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
is the chicken or the egg question of the cli-
mate change debate. A growth in industry,
and hence emissions, will no doubt stimulate
a country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Conversely, a higher GDP will often lead to
a greater disposable income and higher stan-
dards of living which could manifest in more
50 may 2009
cars, more residential energy use and more
consumption all of which will impact on a
country’s total emissions.
While determining causality between
emissions and GDP remains elusive, the
correlation between the two can be visua-
lised with the aid of a plug-in programme
called GapMinder’s data visualisation tool.
Following are the key trends for Brazil,
China, Ghana, India, the United Kingdom,
and the United States for A total carbon di-
oxide emissions and GDP:
United States
The period between 1960-1979 saw a rapid
growth in carbon dioxide emissions with
an increase of 74 per cent from 1960 lev-
els (from 2.87 mn to 5 mn k tonnes). GDP
also doubled in this time from 2.5 to 5.1
mn (mn constant 2000 US$). After this pe-
riod the growth in emissions was relatively
more modest, while GDP continued to
grow rapidly. This decoupling of emissions
and economic growth marked the beginning
of industrial decline in the U.S., with the
percentage of GDP attributable to industry
falling steadily from 34.1 per cent in 1981 to
22.2 per cent in 2004.
United Kingdom
Emissions in the UK have stayed relatively
constant between 1960 and 2004 (in fact
they have fallen by almost 4 per cent since
1960); however, GDP has more than tripled
in this period reflecting a move towards a
service based economy. The percentage of
GDP from industry decreased from 43.1
per cent in 1971 to 24.1 per cent in 2004.
China
Between 1960 and 2004 there has been a
rapid growth in both emissions and GDP
with emissions increasing nearly seven-fold
and GDP increasing by 17 times. China’s
most rapid phase of growth has been in this
decade, with an emissions increase of 53 per
cent to 5.2 bn tonnes, between 2001 and
2004 alone. In three years, China’s emis-
...Read more BIG MAY 2009