Sei sulla pagina 1di 73

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

The following agencies collaborated on this technical report: Oregon Department of Environmental Quality Oregon Department of Energy Oregon Department of Transportation

July 18, 2013

Alternative formats (Braille, large type) of this document can be made available. Contact DEQs Office of Communications & Outreach, Portland, at (503) 229-5696, or toll-free in Oregon at 1-800-452-4011, ext. 5696.

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Contacts Oregon Department of Environmental Quality 503-229-5696, Toll free in Oregon: 800-452-4011 Colin McConnaha: mcconnaha.colin@deq.state.or.us David Allaway: allaway.david@deq.state.or.us Oregon Department of Energy 503-378-4035, Toll free in Oregon: 800-221-8035 Bill Drumheller: bill.drumheller@odoe.state.or.us Oregon Department of Transportation 503-986-4103 Brian Dunn: brian.g.dunn@odot.or.us Acknowledgments Production of this technical report was a joint effort of the Oregon Department of Energy, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, and Oregon Department of Transportation, with contributions from several additional organizations. Report authors: Colin McConnaha and David Allaway, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality Bill Drumheller, Oregon Department of Energy Brian Gregor, Oregon Department of Transportation

Additional contributors include: Andrea Curtis, Jordan Palmeri, John Mathews, Peter Spendelow, and Loretta Pickerell, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality Robbie Andrew and Glen Peters, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo Perry Lindstrom, U.S. Energy Information Administration Leif Hockstad and Andrea Denny, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Ramn Bueno, Stockholm Environment Institute Andrew Yost, Oregon Department of Forestry Stephanie Page, Oregon Department of Agriculture David Turner, Mark Harmon, and Beverly Law, Oregon State University

Numerous Oregon businesses, associations, organizations, and other interested parties have made valuable contributions through participation in advisory groups, committees, technical reviews, and stakeholder processes that have been integral to all of these inventory efforts. Their input has been greatly appreciated.

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Table of Contents
Executive summary ....................................................................................................................... 1 Findings..................................................................................................................................... 1 In-boundary inventory .......................................................................................................... 2 Consumption-based inventory .............................................................................................. 2 Expanded transportation sector inventory ............................................................................ 3 Comparison of results ........................................................................................................... 5 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 6 CHAPTER ONE: Multiple greenhouse gas emissions inventories .............................................. 7 1. Overview ........................................................................................................................... 7 2. Why inventory emissions? ................................................................................................ 7 3. Greenhouse gas accounting in Oregon.............................................................................. 8 4. Why have multiple inventories? ..................................................................................... 10 CHAPTER TWO: In-boundary and electricity use emissions inventory ................................... 13 1. Inventory overview ......................................................................................................... 13 2. In-boundary emissions .................................................................................................... 14 Transportation sector emissions.......................................................................................... 16 Residential and commercial emissions ............................................................................... 17 Industrial emissions ............................................................................................................ 19 In-state electricity generation.............................................................................................. 21 Agriculture emissions ......................................................................................................... 22 Capture and storage of carbon in Oregon: the net inventory framework ........................ 23 3. Additional considerations ............................................................................................... 24 Electricity end use ............................................................................................................... 24 Emissions per capita ........................................................................................................... 26 CHAPTER THREE: Consumption-based emissions inventory ................................................. 29 1. Inventory overview ......................................................................................................... 29 Classification of emissions ................................................................................................. 30 2. Consumption-based emissions ........................................................................................ 33 Changes in consumption-based emissions from 2005 to 2010 ........................................... 35 3. Additional considerations ............................................................................................... 38 Emissions by life-cycle phase and subcategory .................................................................. 38 Emissions by location ......................................................................................................... 42 Emissions by type of consumer and household income ..................................................... 43 Emissions intensities ........................................................................................................... 45 Emissions intensities by production location ...................................................................... 47 Emissions by consuming vs. producing sectors .................................................................. 48 CHAPTER FOUR: Expanded transportation sector emissions inventory .................................. 50 1. Inventory overview ......................................................................................................... 50 2. Ground passenger and commercial service vehicle travel .............................................. 54

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

3. Freight ............................................................................................................................. 58 4. Air Passenger .................................................................................................................. 60 CHAPTER FIVE: Comparison of the emissions inventories ..................................................... 62 1. Comparing In-Boundary and Consumption-Based Emissions........................................ 62 2. Comparing Transportation-Related Emissions ............................................................... 63 3. Calculating a grand total of emissions......................................................................... 63 4. Change in emissions over time ....................................................................................... 64 5. Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 65 Appendix A: Data sources for the in-boundary inventory .......................................................... 66 Appendix B: Methodology for the consumption-based inventory.............................................. 67 Appendix C: STS approach to estimating transportation emissions ........................................... 68

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Executive summary
This report is a joint effort of the Oregon Departments of Energy (ODOE), Environmental Quality (ODEQ), and Transportation (ODOT) to provide a comprehensive and multi-faceted inventory of Oregons greenhouse gas emissions. Inventorying emissions is a necessary step for tracking progress toward legislatively adopted goals for arresting emissions growth by 2010 and reducing Oregons emissions to 10 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 and at least 75 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. This report represents the next step in the evolution of greenhouse gas accounting in Oregon by including two important changes to inventories performed in previous years. The first major change is the use of data reported directly to the state via the Oregon Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program. For 2010, the in-boundary inventory changes from an entirely "top down" modeling estimate to a primarily "bottom up" aggregation of reported data from the emission sources themselves. These reported emissions data are derived from actual fuel volumes and electricity supplied in Oregon reported by the states fuel suppliers and electric utilities. The reported data also include emissions calculated by the states largest industrial emitters. The second change is the inclusion in this report of three separate inventories: 1. In-boundary emissions: Emissions that occur within Oregon's borders and emissions associated with the use of electricity within Oregon. This inventory is similar to those prepared by many other states. Emissions collected in this inventory come from the combustion of fuel used in Oregon, the processing and disposal of waste, the generation and transmission of electricity used in Oregon, and agricultural and industrial operations. 2. Consumption-based emissions: Global emissions associated with satisfying Oregons consumption of goods and services, including energy. This inventory includes global emissions associated with the wide range of stuff that Oregonians purchase, including food, vehicles, appliances, furnishings, and electronics, as well as services, fuels and electricity. 3. Expanded transportation sector emissions: An enhanced look at the emissions associated with travel by Oregonians and the impacts of inbound freight movement. This expanded evaluation of transportation emissions encompasses life-cycle emissions from fuel use by ground and commercial vehicle travel, freight movement of in-bound goods by all other modes of transportation (heavy trucks, railroads, ships, airplanes, and pipelines), and air passenger travel. This report has been prepared to improve our understanding of how Oregon and Oregonians contribute to global emissions of greenhouse gases, the sources and activities causing the emissions, and how the emissions have changed (or not) in recent years. No single approach to inventorying these emissions is necessarily the "right" method for all contexts. The manner in which Oregon residents, businesses, and governments contribute to emissions - and by extension, the opportunities for emissions reductions - span nearly all activities that Oregonians engage in. These emissions occur both in-state and out-of-state, and as a consequence of both production and consumption. No single accounting method adequately captures all of the emissions. Considering all three inventory approaches together presents a more comprehensive perspective of how Oregon contributes to greenhouse gas emissions and provides a more complete understanding of possible methods for reducing these emissions. Findings Following are results from the three inventories; they are initially presented separately, and then compared.

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories In-boundary inventory

Figure ES.1 summarizes the results of the in-boundary inventory. This inventory has been developed with data from 1990 through 2010, and illustrates how the states emissions have changed during this period within four primary sectors. Transportation has remained the largest contributor to the states in-boundary emissions (22.6 million metric tons CO2 equivalent, or million MTCO2e in 2010), however emissions from the residential and commercial sector have grown to similar levels in recent years (22.3 million MTCO2e in 2010). Overall, emissions have declined since 2007, led by reduced emissions from the industrial and transportation sectors.
Figure ES.1 Oregon in-boundary emissions by sector, 1990 - 2010 80 70 60 Million MTCO2e 50 40 30 20 10 0 Agriculture Industrial Residential & Commercial Transportation

Consumption-based inventory

Emissions from the consumption-based inventory are only available for 2005 and 2010. Table ES.1 shows emissions by 16 commodity types across three life-cycle stages. The data from this inventory show essentially no change in total emissions from Oregonians consumption, though there are some shifts between the commodity types. Just three broad commodity types represent half of all consumption-based emissions: vehicles and parts (19 percent), appliances (16 percent), and food and beverages (14 percent). Emissions associated with vehicles and appliances are mostly from their use (e.g. fuel and electricity). In contrast, emissions associated with food are primarily related to production.

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Table ES.1 Oregon consumption-based emissions, by category, 2005 and 2010

(Million MTCO2e) 2005 Prepurchase 2.6 0.3 8.9 5.5 5.1 4.0 5.3 3.4 2.1 2.7 2.1 <0.1 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.4 45.3 Use* 13.0 11.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.4 0 0 2.9 0 0 0 0 28.7 Disposal <0.1 <0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 0.3 0.0 <0.1 <0.1 0.0 <0.1 <0.1 0.8 PreTotal purchase 15.6 1.4 11.7 0.3 9.2 10.1 5.6 6.9 5.2 5.3 4.0 5.0 5.3 4.5 3.4 3.5 3.0 2.1 2.9 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.4 74.8 3.7 1.5 2.7 2.3 <0.1 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.6 46.5 2010 Use* 12.6 11.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.3 0 0 1.9 0 0 0 0 27.7 Disposal <0.1 <0.1 0.2 <0.1 0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 0.1 0.0 <0.1 <0.1 0.0 <0.1 <0.1 0.5 Total 13.9 12.2 10.3 6.9 5.4 5.0 4.5 3.7 2.8 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.6 74.7

Vehicles and parts Appliances Food and beverages Services Construction Healthcare Other manufactured goods Transportation services Electronics Furnishings and supplies Retailers Lighting and fixtures Clothing Wholesale Water and wastewater Other Total

*There are some cases where emissions associated with the use phase of a product category are shown as zero only because the emissions are assigned to another category. For example, emissions associated with washing clothing (e.g., use of a washing machine) are included under the use phase of appliances, not clothing. Similarly, the emissions associated with home heating and food preparation (e.g., a refrigerator, range oven, microwave, or blender) are assigned to appliances, not food.

Expanded transportation sector inventory

Emissions from the expanded transportation sector inventory are available for a variety of years, including multiple forecasted scenarios. Figure ES.2 shows the emissions for the two historic years for which data are available for all three travel market segments ground passenger and commercial service vehicles, freight, and air passenger travel. Emissions increased 30% from 1990 to 2010. Proportionately, the biggest increase in emissions was from the air passenger travel market, which doubled during the period. Emissions from the freight market provided the largest increase overall.

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Figure ES.2 Transportation sector emissions, 1990 and 2010 35 30 Million MTCO2e 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 2010 Ground Pass. & Comm. Serv. Air Passenger Freight

Figure ES.3 Ground passenger and commercial service vehicle emissions, 1990, 2005 and 2010 (Million MTCO2e)

Per-capita emissions (metric tons CO2e)

Population (millions)

Total emissions (million metric tons CO2e) 0 2 2010 4 2005 6 8 1990 10 12 14 16

Figure ES.3 shows that per-capita emissions from ground passenger and commercial service vehicle travel have declined from 4.6 metric tons per person in 1990 to 3.7 tons in 2010. During this same period, population grew from 2.9 million to 3.8 million. From 2005 to 2010, lower per-capita emissions as a result of both improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency and a reduction in vehicle miles traveled more than offset population growth and resulted in a reduction in overall ground transportation emissions from Oregon households and businesses, although these remain higher than 1990 emissions.

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Comparison of results

The three inventories employ significantly different accounting approaches that encompass distinct emission sources and accordingly produce different characterizations of Oregons emissions. Given the different scopes and data sources used by these inventories, it is helpful to understand the areas of overlap between them and the emissions sources uniquely captured by each.
Figure ES.4 Comparison of the in-boundary and consumption-based inventories (2010)

Figure ES.4 illustrates how much the in-boundary and consumption-based inventories account for the same emissions (albeit using different data sources and methods), and the emissions uniquely accounted for in each inventory. In-boundary emissions for 2010 were 62.8 million MTCO2e. Consumption-based emissions were higher, at 74.7 million MTCO2e. Together, these two inventories account for a much larger amount approximately 102.9 million MTCO2e. Emissions shared between these two inventories include approximately 34.5 million MTCO2e. These include emissions from household use of fuels and electricity, as well as in-state production of goods and services that are purchased by Oregon households and governments. The in-boundary inventory includes 28.2 million MTCO2e that are not in the consumption-based inventory. This is primarily the in-state emissions (plus emissions from electricity use) associated with production of commercial, industrial, and agricultural goods and services that are exported. The consumption-based inventory includes 40.2 million MTCO2e that are not in the in-boundary inventory. These emissions occur in other states and nations producing goods and services that are ultimately consumed by Oregon households and government, and certain business purchases. These emissions also include the out-of-state fuel cycle (pre-combustion or well-to-pump) emissions associated with producing purchased electricity and fuels. The expanded transportation sector inventory captures the most transport-related emissions (31.2 million MTCO2e in 2010). Like the consumption-based inventory, these emissions include the full life cycle of fuels and the emissions from Oregonians even when they travel out-of-state. However, the expanded transportation inventory follows both households and businesses, while the consumption-based inventory excludes most business travel.

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Conclusion Emissions in the in-boundary inventory declined approximately eight percent between 2005 and 2010, while the consumption-based inventory shows no change between these years, even as population grew. As described above, improvements in vehicle efficiency and reduction in per-capita travel by light-duty vehicles have resulted in a recent decline in emissions from passenger vehicles, while emissions from the freight and air travel market segments have increased. Oregons legislated greenhouse gas reduction goal for 2010 is to arrest emissions growth and to begin reducing emissions. These inventories demonstrate that for recent years, regardless of the inventory approach utilized, the 2010 greenhouse gas emission reduction goal of arresting emissions growth has been met. Future inventories will determine if Oregons greenhouse gas emissions decline toward the 2020 and 2050 greenhouse gas emission reduction goals the state has established.

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

CHAPTER ONE: Multiple greenhouse gas emissions inventories


1. Overview

This technical report provides Oregon greenhouse gas emissions data for 2010 and previous years in three separate inventories: 1. In-boundary emissions: Emissions that occur within Oregon's borders and emissions associated with the use of electricity within Oregon. Information on carbon sequestration is also included. 2. Consumption-based emissions: World-wide emissions associated with satisfying Oregons consumption of goods and services, including energy. 3. Expanded transportation sector emissions: An enhanced look at the well to wheels emissions associated with travel by Oregonians and the impacts of inbound freight movement. Understanding how Oregon contributes to greenhouse gas emissions is an important element in evaluating how emissions are changing over time, and how they could be reduced. Oregon residents, businesses, and government contribute to emissions in many different ways. By providing these three perspectives together for the first time, this report offers the most complete picture to date of how Oregon and Oregonians contribute to global greenhouse gas emissions. 2. Why inventory emissions?

Inventorying greenhouse gas emissions is a necessary step in understanding how Oregonians contribute to climate change, how these emissions change over time, and what actions could reduce emissions. Several state policies also direct Oregons state government to evaluate greenhouse gas emissions. In 1992, Oregon adopted a benchmark to hold carbon dioxide emissions to 1990 levels. This benchmark was part of the states overall efforts to quantify progress toward a wide variety of goals, including Oregons environment. More recently, the 2007 Oregon Legislature adopted greenhouse gas reduction goals and established Oregons policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The goals as set forth in ORS 468A.205 include the following emission reduction targets: By 2010, Oregon will arrest the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and begin to reduce emissions, By 2020, Oregon will achieve greenhouse gas levels that are 10 percent below 1990 levels, and By 2050, Oregon will achieve greenhouse gas levels that are at least 75 percent below 1990 levels.

Developing greenhouse gas emission inventories allows Oregonians to track progress toward these goals. The 2007 Oregon Legislature also established the Oregon Global Warming Commission through House Bill 3543, and directed state agencies to provide support to the Commission. The Commission has indicated on numerous occasions - including in its Interim Roadmap to 2020 and 2011 Report to the Legislature - that emissions inventories should be periodically updated in order to inform rigorous analysis and to track progress toward the emissions reduction goals. In 2010, the Oregon Legislature adopted a requirement that a statewide transportation strategy be developed to aid in achieving the greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals set forth in ORS 468A.205. ODOT worked extensively with transportation stakeholders including state, regional and local governments, other state agencies, business, and advocacy groups to develop a vision of what it will take
7

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

to substantially reduce transportation sector emissions and to identify promising strategies for moving forward to meet the vision. The first phase of the strategy development process was completed on March 20, 2013 with the acceptance of the Oregon Statewide Transportation Strategy: A 2050 Vision for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction 1 (STS) by the Oregon Transportation Commission. Oregon's Environmental Quality Commission has also demonstrated interest in greenhouse gas accounting and inventories. The commission adopted rules requiring reporting of emissions from a variety of industrial and commercial sources and from suppliers of fuels and electricity. The rules established the Oregon Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program that is implemented by the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ). The Commission also adopted Materials Management in Oregon: 2050 Vision and Framework for Action which calls for periodic updates to Oregon's consumption-based emissions inventory. The consumption-based inventory is also developed by DEQ. In addition, the 2009 Jobs and Transportation Act and SB 1059 (2010) required the Land Conservation and Development Commission (LCDC) to establish light-duty vehicle GHG emissions reduction targets for all metropolitan areas of the state. These laws required DEQ, the Oregon Department of Energy (ODOE), and the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) to develop the technical analysis for supporting LCDC rulemaking. 3. Greenhouse gas accounting in Oregon

Oregon has inventoried greenhouse gases for over 20 years, and has contributed to several innovations in greenhouse gas inventories at the state level, as new data sources and estimation methodologies are developed, and new policy and evaluation needs are identified. Initially, Oregon and other states were limited in the types of greenhouse gas data that they were able to collect, analyze, and use to prepare inventories. Emissions data that is measured or computed directly from emissions sources was historically available only for the largest power generation sources; this quantification method is called the bottom up approach. Oregon inventoried greenhouse gas emissions from other sources using estimation and modeling techniques called the "top down" approach. The top down approach uses techniques based on statewide energy use, industrial activity, and socioeconomic indicators, and appropriate emissions factors, to quantify emissions. The historic state inventories focused on sources of emissions located inside Oregon's borders. This approach draws on methods first set forth in 1994 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for use by nations in compiling official greenhouse gas inventories. The Panels methods serve as the official standards for nations to create inventories and track progress towards emission-reduction goals, such as those established in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency adapted these methods for voluntary use by U.S. states; EPAs adaptation is called the State Inventory Tool (SIT), which Oregon uses for its top down inventory. A focus on emissions from in-boundary sources offers several advantages. At the global scale, consistent accounting by every nation of all in-boundary sources allows all national inventories to be summed into a global total without double-counting. Consistency between jurisdictions facilitates comparison and evaluation of changes in emissions over time. The in-boundary inventory allows us to compare the data over time within Oregon and in relation to other states. By focusing on emissions within the state, the inboundary inventory highlights opportunities for reducing the production of greenhouse gases within

Oregon Department of Transportation, Oregon Statewide Transportation Strategy: A 2050 Vision for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction, Volume 1, March 2013. 8

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Oregon. These reductions can increase the energy efficiency of Oregon households and businesses and reduce Oregonians use of the most potent greenhouse gases. Oregon was one of the first states to expand its emissions inventory to include the emissions associated with the use of electricity in the state, whether the electricity was generated in Oregon or imported into Oregon from out of state. This approach enhances Oregon's ability to influence reductions in electricityrelated emissions through both conservation (reducing use of electricity, regardless of where the power is generated) and clean energy initiatives such as the state's Renewable Portfolio Standard. Including imported electricity emissions has become increasingly common in accounting for electricity-related emissions at the state and local level. 2 Washington and California also employ this practice. For the 2010 emissions year, more precise greenhouse gas emissions data is available for the in-boundary and electricity use inventory. Mandatory greenhouse gas reporting began in 2009 for major industrial emitters, and expanded in 2010 to include fuel suppliers and electric utilities. The mandatory reporting requirement is a new and important source of bottom up emissions data that enhances ongoing efforts to track Oregons greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, about 80 percent of emissions in the in-boundary and electricity use inventory come from data reported to the state directly from industrial emitters, fuel suppliers, and electric utilities. Integrating these new bottom up data with the top down data improves the accuracy and reliability of Oregons greenhouse gas inventory. Another new development is the use of different accounting frameworks, or inventories, coupled with the use of life-cycle accounting techniques, to better understand how Oregonians contribute to global emissions. Historically, inventories focused on estimating emissions at a single moment in time. However, the total carbon footprint of a product, and the cumulative impact of an action or policy, may be more accurately characterized if the emissions associated with the product or action over the course of time are counted, regardless of where the emissions occur. Unlike many other pollutants, greenhouse gases have global impacts. For example, Oregon households have the same impact on Oregon's climate if they burn a gallon of gas in Oregon or a gallon of gas while driving through another state. Extending Oregons inventories to include Oregonians out-of-state emissions is consistent with how Oregon accounts for electricity use. The trans-boundary approach is being applied in Oregon in two ways: accounting of emissions based on our consumption, and expanding our accounting of emissions from the transportation sector. Oregon's consumption-based inventory estimates the worldwide emissions associated with Oregon's consumption, defined in economic terms as "final demand" of goods and services (including energy) by Oregon households and government, as well as business capital and inventory formation. The consumption-based inventory primarily uses "top down" economic modeling, but with a very different geographic framework than the in-boundary emissions inventory. It accounts for emissions in Oregon only if they are associated with satisfying economic final demand by Oregon households, governments, and businesses. It also estimates emissions elsewhere in the world, but similarly only if they are associated with satisfying economic final demand by Oregonians. The consumption-based inventory offers a perspective on the carbon footprint of Oregonians, one that includes not only the emissions that occur in the state as a result of purchase and use decisions, but also those emissions occurring elsewhere, with a particular focus on emissions that are "imported" along with the products that we consume. This inventory helps design strategies that lower the carbon intensity of goods and services consumed by
2 While commonly referred to as a "consumption-based approach" to electricity emissions, it differs from the approach used in Oregon's full consumption-based inventory in two important regards. First, it only accounts for emissions at the point of electricity generation, whereas the consumption-based inventory described later in this report includes life-cycle emissions. Second, the in-boundary inventory includes emissions associated with all electricity used in Oregon, regardless of user, while the consumption-based inventory only counts the emissions associated with Oregon consumption, defined in economic terms as "final demand" by households and governments, which includes direct use of electricity by households and governments. 9

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Oregonians and create incentives for Oregons in- and out-of-state suppliers to shift to production methods that reduce their carbon footprint. The ODOT has developed a third accounting framework, one which expands our understanding of the overall contribution of Oregonians travel to global greenhouse gas emissions. The expanded transportation sector inventory divides transportation-related emissions into three travel market segments: ground passenger and commercial service travel of Oregonians, air passenger travel of Oregonians, and transportation of goods to destinations in Oregon. In the first two, it considers the worldwide, life-cycle emissions associated with moving Oregon residents and employees of Oregon businesses and governments. It shows impacts of travel decisions by Oregonians, regardless of where they travel. Such a "demand-based" approach to modeling transportation impacts is increasingly common in communityscale inventories. This third inventory estimates the worldwide emissions associated with all freight trips that terminate in Oregon, regardless of where they originate. Again, life-cycle emissions ("well-towheel") are considered. This approach shines more light on the movement of goods into Oregon that are used both by households and businesses. 4. Why have multiple inventories?

Oregon's greenhouse gas inventories are used by many different parties and for a variety of purposes, including identifying major sources of emissions, setting goals, identifying trends, tracking progress, evaluating the emissions reduction potential of various policy options, and communicating to the public how the state contributes to emissions. Multiple inventorying approaches help meet these different needs and uses by providing a more comprehensive perspective on the states emissions. The manner in which Oregon residents, businesses, and governments contribute to emissions - and by extension, the opportunities for emissions reductions - span nearly all activities that Oregonians engage in. These emissions occur both in-state and out-of-state as a consequence of both production and consumption. No single accounting method adequately captures all of the emissions, or even all of the major sources of emissions. While both the in-boundary emissions inventory and the consumption-based emissions inventory span multiple economic sectors, and both tell important stories, they also each, by themselves, omit significant emissions associated with Oregon's economy. The expanded transportation sector inventory offers a deeper dive into transportation-related emissions, but is silent on emissions in other sectors of the economy (although transportation is inextricably linked to every economic sector of activity). Table 1.1 provides a summary of each of the three inventory frameworks and provides a high-level comparison between them. Each framework is described in detail in subsequent sections of this report.
Table 1.1 Comparison of inventories

General description

Scope

In-boundary In-state emissions and the use of electricity instate. Optional adjustments for in-state electricity generation and for sequestration. Economy-wide

Consumption-based Globally-distributed emissions associated with satisfying consumption (economic final demand) by Oregon.

Expanded transportation sector Life-cycle emissions associated with travel by Oregonians and in-bound freight travel.

Economy-wide

Transportation only

10

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

In-boundary Data currently available Treatment of transportation sector 3 Annually since 1990 Emissions from in-state use (sales) of transportation fuels by all users (Oregonians, pass-through travel); combustion emissions only (not life-cycle)

Consumption-based 2005 and 2010 only Life cycle emissions of: 1) fuel used in vehicles by Oregon households and government; 2) purchase of transport services (e.g., air tickets) by Oregon households and government; 3) all transportation emissions associated with the movement and supply chains of goods and services consumed. Worldwide life-cycle emissions of 1) electricity used directly by Oregon households and governments (but not businesses), and 2) all electricity used in the provision and supply chains of goods and services consumed by Oregon Includes worldwide emissions of 1) heating fuels used by Oregon households and governments; 2) solid waste produced by Oregon households and governments; 3) all other emissions from supply chains of goods and services consumed in Oregon "Top Down"

Expanded transportation sector 1990 and 2010, with some interim data Life cycle emissions of: 1) Ground transport of people by Oregon households, businesses and government; 2) air transport of Oregonians; and 3) movement of freight for trips terminating in Oregon. 4 Only included when electricity is used for transportation (e.g., light rail) or in the production of fuels used in transportation.

Treatment of electric power sector

Emissions at the points of electric power generation for all electricity used in Oregon. Separate estimate of emissions from in-state generation All other in-state sources are included (e.g., heating fuels, industrial process emissions, fertilizer and landfill emissions)

Treatment of other sources

Not included

Inventory approach Primary reduction strategies that affect this inventory

Historically "Top Down", 2010 primarily "Bottom Up" Energy efficiency in households, businesses and industry, and reducing fuel use in transportation

"Top Down"

Lowering carbon intensity of Oregonians frequently consumed goods and services, and informing businesses and governments how they can lower their overall carbon footprint

Improving vehicles fuel efficiency, reducing the carbon intensity of fuels, and shifting travel to more carbon-efficient modes such as transit, carpooling, biking, etc.

The consumption-based and expanded transportation sector inventories consider travel regardless of location Specific to freight, the difference between consumption-based and expanded transportation sector emissions can be illustrated by an example. Consider a bakery in Oregon that sells into both Oregon and surrounding markets. The bakery purchases flour from a mill in Washington State, which in turn buys all of its grain from a farm in Oregon. The farm, in turn, purchases fertilizer from a producer in Idaho. The expanded transportation approach would include all of the emissions associated with all trips that terminate in Oregon, including transporting all of the fertilizer to Oregon (even if some of the resulting wheat were exported for use in other states) and all of the flour to Oregon (even if some of the resulting bread were exported for use in other states). Emissions from trips not terminating in Oregon would not be counted. In contrast, the consumption-based approach would count all of the transportation emissions up the entire supply chain (flour from Washington to Oregon; grain from Oregon to Washington; fertilizer from Idaho to Oregon; and so on) but only to the extent the flour (final input) is used by the bakery to satisfy final consumption in Oregon. Whenever fuels are used, both approaches use life cycle ("well to wheels") emissions, that is, the emissions not only from combustion of the fuels, but also extracting/growing, refining/producing, and transporting them.
4

11

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

No inventory method is necessarily the "right" method for all contexts. For example, the in-boundary inventory tells us about emissions within Oregon and from Oregonians statewide energy use, while the consumption-based inventory tells us about the emissions associated with the production, use and disposal of goods and services consumed by Oregonians. The in-boundary inventory tells us about nearly all in-state travel, including pass-through travel, while the consumption-based and expanded transportation sector inventories each offer more (but different) detail on vehicle and air travel by Oregonians, and the emissions of inbound freight. Each inventory shows unique information, despite substantial overlap between the data. 5 Considering all three inventory approaches together provides a more comprehensive picture of how Oregon contributes to emissions and presents a more comprehensive understanding of potential solutions.

5 The overlap between inventories means that total emissions as estimated in each of the three approaches cannot simply be added to each other to produce a "grand total". Doing so would result in significant double- or even triple-counting. Chapter 5 discusses this in more detail.

12

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

CHAPTER TWO: In-boundary and electricity use emissions inventory


1. Inventory overview

Oregons in-boundary and electricity use inventory estimates greenhouse gas emissions that occur within the states jurisdictional boundary and that are associated with the generation of electricity used by Oregonians within that boundary. This inventory includes emissions from the combustion of fuel used in Oregon, the processing and disposal of waste and other materials, the generation and transmission of electricity used in Oregon, agricultural and industrial operations, and as a result of a variety of other processes. Most of these emissions occur within the state, though some electricity used by Oregonians is generated out of state, and the emissions from this out of state generation are included in this inventory. Similarly, emissions from electricity generation occurring in Oregon that is used out of state are presented separately and not included in the statewide emission totals of this inventory. This inventory may be especially helpful to policy makers at the state, regional and local levels as they seek to identify and prioritize strategies to reduce emissions from in-state activities and from electricity use. In addition, the inventory may help measure the efficacy of those emission reduction strategies put into place. The inventory also helps to communicate how each sector in Oregon contributes to emissions in the state, with a focus on emissions from in-state energy use and industrial activities. The 2010 in-boundary inventory was conducted by ODOE and DEQ using data collected by DEQ through the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, output and analysis generated by ODOE using the US EPA State Inventory Tool (SIT), and other estimates generated by DEQ. Greenhouse gas emissions reported to DEQ represent a new source of bottom up emissions data that improve the accuracy of efforts to track Oregons greenhouse gas emissions. The data reported to DEQ includes actual fuel volumes and electricity supplied in Oregon and emissions from industrial facilities. The reported data were integrated with the top down inventory data that ODOE has historically compiled using the SIT, creating a combined bottom up and top down inventory for 2010. The top down inventory is based on a wide range of modeling, estimation, and quantification techniques using energy, agricultural, waste, and socioeconomic data. Integrating the two approaches provides a more comprehensive inventory because it contains estimation and modeling of emissions in certain sectors not fully covered by the reported data. For example, emissions from agricultural activities are not reported to DEQ, but are provided through the inventory work done by ODOE using statistics from the Oregon Department of Agriculture and the modeling tools available through the SIT. Finally, all of the historical data from 1990 to 2009, which is derived largely from the SIT and custom analysis work done at both ODOE and DEQ, was combined with the 2010 data to create a complete time series of greenhouse gas emissions data from 1990 through 2010. DEQs mandatory greenhouse gas reporting rules are contained in Oregon Administrative Rules chapter 340 division 215. The reporting program took effect in 2009 by requiring reporting of greenhouse gas emissions from certain industrial facilities with emissions over 2,500 MTCO2e. Most of these facilities report emissions from onsite fuel combustion and some facilities report emissions from industrial processes such as cement production and pulp and paper manufacturing. DEQs greenhouse gas reporting program expanded in 2010 to include fuel suppliers and electric utilities. Companies that distribute gasoline, diesel and aircraft fuels in Oregon report the fuel they supply and the greenhouse gas emissions that resulted from the combustion of this fuel. Similarly, natural gas suppliers report the volume of natural gas provided to Oregon end users and the emissions that resulted from the combustion of this gas. These emissions from fuel suppliers are calculated using emission factors described in EPAs federal greenhouse gas reporting rule.

13

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Electric utilities report to DEQ the amount of electricity they supply to Oregonians and estimate the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the generation of this electricity. Emissions from generation are calculated based on the generating fuel type and facility characteristics when this information is known. Utilities use DEQs default emission factor to estimate emissions if the generating fuel type isnt known, such as for market purchases made by the utility. Emissions data that are not available from the greenhouse gas reporting program are primarily obtained from the SIT and from sector-specific analysis performed at ODOE and DEQ. The SIT represents a statelevel representation of the national greenhouse gas inventory completed by EPA for the United States in accordance with its international obligations. Where possible or practical the SIT uses the same data sources and methodologies as the EPAs federal inventory to estimate state-level emissions, although often with emission or activity factors that have been specifically tailored for individual states. For the majority of emission categories, especially those that are energy-related, excellent data and factors are available from the tool. However, for other emission categories, especially for industrial processes and agricultural activities, the tool must rely on broader estimation techniques. In those few cases where statelevel data are largely absent the tool will estimate emissions by taking the emission totals from the national inventory and prorating those emissions based on population or some activity factor, like economic activity. More commonly some state-level data will be available, such as material inputs into a production process, and emissions can be calculated by combining those data with an emissions factor derived from the national inventory. In order to use the highest quality data for the 2010 inventory, data from the Oregon greenhouse gas reporting program is integrated with either the SIT or analysis done at ODOE or DEQ. Roughly 80 percent of the total emissions in the 2010 inventory are derived from the Oregon greenhouse gas reporting program. In a few cases the reported data from this program were judged likely to be incomplete based on historical estimates. In those cases the SIT data were used, although future revisions of the inventory may provide an opportunity for the reported data to be used once they can be verified to be complete and accurate. A detailed accounting of the origin of each emission category in the in-boundary emission inventory can be found in Appendix A. Finally, the calculated greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to one of four key economic sectors Transportation, Residential & Commercial, Industrial, and Agriculture. Attribution of emission categories to each sector is based on EPAs similar sector-level reporting process in the national inventory. To the extent possible the EPA model is followed, although in some cases there are not state-level data that can be applied in the same way (e.g., there are no state-level data available for electricity consumption at the farm level). For energy emission categories that apply across multiple sectors, and for which only a single estimate exists from the reported data, the data are attributed to sectors based on the proportion of consumption in each sector as found in the Energy Information Administrations (EIA) State Energy Data System for the same category. A variety of other assumptions are made to facilitate the sector assignment process. Details on these assumptions can be found in the national inventory (Box 2-1) 6 and in Appendix A of this report. 2. In-boundary emissions

Following is a discussion of the 2010 inventory, how it compares with prior years, and how the new reported data differ from the modeled estimates. First, we compare key economic sectors and their trends in recent years, and then we examine the sectors in greater detail. ODOE has developed the in-boundary
6 Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 2011, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA 430-R-13001, 2013.

14

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

inventories for Oregon from 1990 through 2009. This 2010 inventory is the first to use the data reported to DEQs greenhouse gas reporting program as the primary basis for measuring emissions. Emissions in the 2010 in-boundary inventory are slightly lower than estimates of 2009 emissions, though the relative contributions of the states economic sectors are similar to previous years.
Table 2.1 Oregon emissions by sector, 1990 2010 (Million MTCO2e)

Sector Transportation Residential & commercial Industrial Agriculture Total

1990 21.0 16.3 14.1 4.8 56.2

1995 22.5 19.7 16.9 5.2 64.4

2000 24.3 22.9 18.1 5.1 70.3

2005 24.7 23.7 14.3 5.5 68.3

2006 25.2 22.4 14.3 5.7 67.6

2007 25.7 24.1 14.4 5.7 69.9

2008 24.2 24.1 14.0 5.3 67.6

2009 24.0 23.4 12.4 5.0 64.8

2010 22.6 22.3 12.4 5.4 62.8

Table 2.1 summarizes greenhouse gas emissions by economic sectors since 1990. Transportation remains the largest contributor to the states in-boundary emissions, closely followed by residential and commercial activities. The industrial sector is the third largest contributor, with about half the emissions associated with the transportation or the residential and commercial sectors. Finally, agricultural activity is a distant fourth. Overall, emissions have declined approximately eight percent or 5.5 million MTCO2e between 2005 and 2010.
Figure 2.1 Oregon emissions by sector, 1990 - 2010 80 70 60 Million MTCO2e 50 40 30 20 10 0 Agriculture Industrial Residential & Commercial Transportation

Figure 2.1 illustrates how the states emissions have changed in each economic sector since 1990. Emissions from agriculture have been somewhat constant, at slightly above 5 million MTCO2e each year. The transportation sector has fluctuated just above 20 million MTCO2e, while the residential and
15

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

commercial sector has grown from approximately 16 million MTCO2e in the early 1990s to over 20 million MTCO2e in 2000, and remained somewhat constant from 2000 to 2010. The industrial sectors emissions rose gradually through the 1990s to a peak in 1999 of 19.3 million MTCO2e, and declined most years since then, and were just 12.4 million MTCO2e in 2010.
Figure 2.2 Oregon emissions by greenhouse gas type 80 70 60 Million MTCO2e 50 40 30 20 10 0 High Global Warming Potential Gases Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Methane (CH4) Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Figure 2.2 illustrates how the states emissions have changed since 1990 by the relative contribution of each greenhouse gas type. The relative contributions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have been somewhat constant, comprising 82.6 percent, 9 percent and 5 percent of the total emissions in 2010, respectively. High global warming potential gases, composed of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) have risen from about one percent of the states emissions in the early 1990s to over three percent in 2010. This increase can be partially accounted for by the rise of the electronics manufacturing industry in Oregon and the increased use of air conditioning in Oregon.
Transportation sector emissions

Emissions attributed to transportation are primarily from fuel used by on-road vehicles, including passenger cars and trucks, as well as freight and commercial vehicles. This sector also includes aviation fuel and off-road transportation such as farm vehicles, locomotives, and boats.

16

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Figure 2.3 Oregon emissions from transportation fuel use 30

25

Million MTCO2e

20

15

Non CO2 gases Other fuels Aviation fuels Diesel & residuals Gasoline

10

Figure 2.3 illustrates how the states emissions from transportation fuel have changed since 1990 by the relative contribution of each fuel type. Non CO2 gases include methane and nitrous oxide that are byproducts of fuel combustion and fluorinated gases with high global warming potential from air conditioning and other auxiliary systems on vehicles. The other fuels category includes propane, natural gas, lubricant emissions and electricity. Aviation fuels include kerosene jet fuel, aviation-grade gasoline, and naphtha jet fuel. Diesel & residuals include all distillate and residual fuels used for transportation. Total emissions from transportation have changed modestly between 1990 and 2010. During this period, emissions peaked in 2007 at 25.7 million MTCO2e, and have since declined 12 percent to 22.6 million MTCO2e. It is important to note the shift in fuel proportions from 2009 to 2010 for gasoline and diesel fuels. The 2010 data are from reports by companies that supply fuel in Oregon, while the 2009 data are estimates from EPAs State Inventory Tool based on data from the EIA. The reported data show an increase in emissions from gasoline use from the 12.7 million MTCO2e estimated by EPAs SIT model for 2009 to 13.9 million MTCO2e in 2010. Conversely, the reported data show a decrease in emissions from diesel use from 6.5 million MTCO2e estimated by the SIT for 2009 to 5.0 million MTCO2e in 2010. The reported data should be more accurate than estimates from SIT, but its possible that some of the changes in emissions from 2009 to 2010 are partly due to changes in methodology, from top down quantification techniques to bottom up reported data. DEQ is working to ensure companies report fuel volumes and emissions correctly. If DEQ discovers changes to the reported data or ways to improve the accuracy of the data, it will update the values in this inventory.
Residential and commercial emissions

Emissions from residential and commercial activities come primarily from generation of electricity and natural gas combustion to meet the energy demand from this sector. Other sources of emissions from this sector include small amounts of petroleum fuels burned primarily for heating, decomposition of waste in
17

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

landfills, waste incineration, wastewater treatment, and fugitive emissions associated with the distribution of natural gas and from the fertilization of landscaped areas. Fluorinated gases from refrigerants, aerosols, and fire protection are also a small but increasing source of emissions from this sector.
Figure 2.4 Oregon residential and commercial emissions from electricity, natural gas, and petroleum use 10 9 8 7 Million MTCO2e 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Residential Natural Gas Combustion Commercial Natural Gas Combustion Residential Petroleum Combustion Commercial Petroleum Combustion

Residential Electricity Use Commercial Electricity Use

Figure 2.4 illustrates how the states emissions from electricity, natural gas, and petroleum use in residential and commercial activities have changed since 1990. Emissions from residential and commercial electricity use have followed a similar trend during this period, with residential use consistently between one and two million MTCO2e higher each year. Annual variation in weather influences both electricity demand and the supply of renewable energy from wind and hydro sources. Thus, it is important not to interpret too much from changes year-to-year and to assess these data for broad trends. Emissions associated with electricity use rose during the 1990s, and have generally leveled off since 2000 with annual fluctuation. The combined emissions from natural gas and petroleum use in residential and commercial activities are approximately one third of the emissions from electricity generation. Residential and commercial petroleum use has slowly declined and natural gas use has gradually increased.

18

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Figure 2.5 Oregon emissions from other residential and commercial activities 3.0 2.5 Million MTCO2e 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Combustion byproducts Refrigerants, aerosols, fire protection Fertilization Natural gas distribution Municipal wastewater Municipal waste landfills

In addition to emissions from energy demand shown in Figure 2.4, Figure 2.5 illustrates the change in emissions from other residential and commercial activities since 1990. Emissions of fluorinated gases from refrigerants, aerosols, and fire protection use have increased steadily from less than 0.1 million MTCO2e in 1990 to 0.5 million MTCO2e in 2010. Emissions from municipal waste landfills have also increased, from 1 million MTCO2e in 1990 to 1.3 million MTCO2e in 2010. Emissions from most other residential and commercial activities shown in this figure have remained approximately the same between 1990 and 2010.
Industrial emissions

Similar to residential and commercial activities, emissions from the industrial sector come primarily from electricity generation and natural gas combustion. Emissions from petroleum combustion have declined since the late 1990s largely because many facilities transitioned from distillate fuels to natural gas and from structural changes in Oregons industrial base. Emissions from coal combustion are nominal as there are very few facilities in Oregon using coal onsite. Emissions from coal used to generate electricity, such as PGEs facility in Boardman, Oregon are excluded from this section and presented in a text box below.

19

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Figure 2.6 Oregon emissions from industrial processes and fuel use 20 18 16 14 Million MTCO2e 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 All industrial process Coal and other combustion Petroleum combustion Natural gas combustion Industrial electricity Use

Table 2.2 Oregon emissions from industrial processes (Million MTCO2e)

Industrial process Aluminum production Ammonia production & urea consumption Cement manufacturing Food processing wastewater Industrial landfills Iron & steel production Lime manufacturing Limestone and dolomite use Natural gas distribution Nitric acid production Pulp & paper manufacturing Refrigerant, foam, solvent, aerosol use Semiconductor manufacturing Soda ash production

1990 0.31 0.08 0.22 0.01 0.07 0.70 0.09 0.01 0.32 0.00 0.44 0.00 0.29 0.03

1995 0.26 0.08 0.21 0.01 0.08 0.70 0.16 0.01 0.38 0.00 0.44 0.06 0.50 0.03

2000 0.27 0.07 0.44 0.01 0.11 0.75 0.15 0.01 0.37 0.00 0.44 0.14 0.79 0.03

2005 0.09 0.07 0.44 0.01 0.13 0.34 0.09 0.01 0.37 0.00 0.44 0.18 0.66 0.03

2010 0.00 0.11 0.46 0.01 0.19 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.34 0.00 0.44 0.15 0.80 0.01

Certain industries emit greenhouse gases from processes other than fuel combustion. In Oregon, these industrial processes are chiefly cement manufacturing, pulp and paper manufacturing, and semiconductor manufacturing. Emissions from these processes collectively account for approximately 2.5 million MTCO2e in 2010, which is about four percent of Oregons total in-boundary emissions.
20

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Changes in emissions from 2005 to 2010 could be due to different methodologies, in addition to actual changes in emissions. DEQs reporting program is designed to more accurately reflect Oregons emissions than estimates from EPAs SIT used prior to 2010. In some cases, EPAs tool estimates states emissions as a portion of the national data collected by EPA. Sometimes the state level appropriation of these emissions has proven to be inaccurate now that source-level reporting is available from the Oregon Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program. For example, the SIT has estimated a small amount of emissions in Oregon from aluminum production, while the reported data confirm there are no emissions as there is no known aluminum production occurring in the state. In a few cases where the SIT is unable to provide historical estimates of emissions the results from the 2010 inventory are applied to all years so that there is at least an estimate of those emissions through the entire time series. In the future it is hoped that these data, as well as all of the historical industrial process data, can be refined and improved by the higher quality data from the Oregon Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program.
In-state electricity generation

Emissions from electricity used in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors represent emissions from the generation of that electricity, regardless of where that electricity is produced. Similarly, emissions from electricity generated in Oregon that is transmitted for out-of-state use are not included in these sectors or in the total statewide emissions described at the beginning of this section. Emissions from in-state electricity generation come almost entirely from combustion of coal and natural gas. These emissions have varied year-to-year, and grown from approximately 2 million MTCO2e in 1990 to 10 million MTCO2e in 2010.
Figure 2.7 Oregon emissions from in-state electricity generation 12 10 Million MTCO2e 8 6 4 2 0

Other Coal Natural gas

21

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Agriculture emissions

Agricultural activities have consistently accounted for approximately 5.5 million MTCO2e since the mid 1990s. In contrast to other sectors, most of these greenhouse gas emissions are from methane and nitrous oxide rather than carbon dioxide. Slightly more than 2 million MTCO2e is from methane that results from enteric fermentation (i.e. digestion of feed from livestock). About 2 million MTCO2e is from nitrous oxide, estimated from nitrogen-based fertilizers used for soil management. Methane and nitrous oxide from management of livestock manure have accounted for roughly 0.5 million MTCO2e since 2000. Other agricultural sources of emissions, including urea fertilization, liming of soils, and residue burning, produce less than 0.2 million MTCO2e.
Figure 2.8 Oregon emissions from agriculture 6 5 Million MTCO2e 4 3 2 1 0 Other Manure management Enteric fermentation Soil management

22

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Capture and storage of carbon in Oregon: the net inventory framework Capture and storage of carbon in Oregon: the net inventory framework

An additional perspective on Oregons contribution to greenhouse gas emissions can be obtained by taking into account not only the emissions of greenhouse gases from anthropogenic sources, but also the Another perspective on Oregons contribution to greenhouse gas can be obtained by taking into account removal and storage of carbon from the atmosphere. The storage of carbon in trees, vegetation, and soil not only the emissions of greenhouse gases from anthropogenic sources, but also the removal and are the best known from sinks there are other important points in where carbon is captured and stored, i.e., storage of carbon thebut atmosphere. The storage of carbon trees, vegetation, and soil are the best sequestered, and therefore delayed from being released into the atmosphere. International greenhouse gas known sinks but there are other important points where carbon is captured and stored (i.e., accounting standards require this type of net inventory for national reporting and utilize complex sequestered) and therefore delayed from being released into the atmosphere. International greenhouse protocols to estimate these removals. At the state level, however, creating a net inventory is challenging. gas accounting standards require this type of net inventory for national reporting and utilize complex Few data are that conform to At state the increased resolution necessary for stateprotocols to available estimate these removals. theboundaries state level,and however, creating a net inventory is challenging. level most data sources. Few analysis data are taxes available that conform to state boundaries and the increased resolution necessary for statelevel analysis taxes most data sources. Oregon is fortunate to have access to several data sources for carbon sequestration that are scaled to Oregons boundaries. there is no single definitive set for forest sequestration. Different Oregon is fortunate to However, have access to several data sources fordata carbon sequestration that are scaled to approaches utilize different modeling assumptions and techniques. The results from two modeling Oregons boundaries. However, there is no single definitive data set for forest sequestration. Different initiatives at utilize Oregon State University (OSU) are provided here so that users of these consult the approaches different modeling assumptions and techniques. The results fromdata two can modeling references and decide which of the two data sources to use. Given the substantial year-to-year initiatives at Oregon State University (OSU) are provided here so that users of these data can variability consult the of these estimates it is recommended that multiple year averages be used wherever possible. A references and decide which of the two data sources to use. Given the substantial year-to-year selection variability of data is given below in Table 2.3 so that be those interested inpossible. creating A a net ofsequestration these estimates it estimates is recommended that multiple year averages used wherever selection inventory for Oregon utilizeis the databelow appropriate for2.3. their needs to do so. of sequestration data can estimates given in Table These data can be used to create a net inventory for Oregon.
Table 2.3 Emissions estimates of carbon sequestration in Oregon Table 2.3 (Million MTCO2e) Annual emissions estimates of carbon sequestration in Oregon (Million MTCO2e)

OSU ORCA Project Forest Net Biome Production1 (modified to include product carbon sink estimate = of timber harvest)2 OSU Forest LandCarb Data (ecosystem estimate + product sink)3 OSU Forest LandCarb Data (same with 5-year rolling average) Urban Trees (estimate from EPA State Inventory Tool land use module) OSU ORCA Project Net Biome Production of Non-Forest Systems (croplands, wetlands, and other ecosystems)4 Disposal in Landfills of Waste Originating from Oregon (portion of food discards, yard trimmings, wood and paper expected not to decompose but rather to remain as carbon)5 ___________________________

Different Estimates

1990 2000 (24.42) (17.05) (19.78) (0.60) (7.72) (0.87)

2001 2007 (22.71)

20012010 n/a 0.47 (7.08) (0.73) n/a (0.86)

(1.68)

1 Turner, D.P., W.D. Ritts, Z. Yang, R.E. Kennedy, W.B. Cohen, M.V. Duane, P.E. Thornton, B.E. Law. 2011. Decadal trends in net ecosystem production and net ecosystem carbon balance for a regional socioecological system. Forest Ecology and Management 262: 1 2 Peter Kelly, A Greenhouse Gas Inventory of Oregons Forests, Oregon Department of Energy, 2009. (http://www.Oregon.gov/ENERGY/GBLWRM/docs/Oregon_Forests_GHG_Inventory_OGWC_Report_Final.pdf) 3 Final Report - LandCarb Simulation of Forest Carbon Flux in Oregon; Mark E. Harmon and Frank Schnekenburger, Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, December 2009. (http://www.oregon.gov/odf/indicators/pages/indicatorga.asp) 4 Turner, D.P, W.D. Ritts, B.E. Law, W.B. Cohen, Z. Yang, T. Hudiburg, J.L. Campbell, M. Duane. 2007. Scaling net ecosystem production and net biome production over a heterogeneous region in the western United States. Biogeosciences 4:597-612. 5 http://www.deq.state.or.us/lq/pubs/docs/sw/Number09Materials.pdf

23

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

3.

Additional considerations

Electricity end use

Figures 2.4 and 2.6 in the previous section show emissions from the generation of electricity used in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors.7 The following figures show the various uses for this electricity within each sector. As with the emissions from electricity shown in the previous section, these emissions vary year-to-year due to changes in electricity demand and from fluctuations in the annual emissions intensity of the electricity. The annual emissions intensity of Oregons electricity is influenced by weather and hydrological conditions that affect hydroelectric generation. The less power that is available from dams, the more electricity Oregon utilities must acquire from other sources, much of which is generated with fossil fuels. So, changes in annual emissions from various uses within each sector may have as much or more to do with annual differences in the emissions intensity of Oregons electricity as with changes in demand. Thus, the following data are presented to compare the relative proportions of end uses for electricity, both within a given year and how these proportions have changed since 1990.
Figure 2.9 Oregon emissions from generation of electricity, by residential use 10 9 8 7 Million MTCO2e 6 5 4 3 2 1 Other appliances and lighting Refrigeration Water heating Air-conditioning Space heating

Lighting and household appliances have consistently comprised over half the electricity used in the residential sector. Refrigeration and water heating are also significant, at about 14 percent and 9 percent of residential electricity use, respectively. Finally, heating and air conditioning have collectively comprised 20 percent of household electricity use, though since 2001 demand for air conditioning has increased while electricity used for space heating has declined.
7

State-level data are not available that would allow assignment of electricity use to the agricultural sector.

24

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Figure 2.10 Oregon emissions from generation of electricity, by commercial use 9 8 7 Million MTCO2e 6 5 4 3 2 1 Lighting & other Computers & office equipment Refrigeration Water heating Cooling & ventilation Space heating

As with the residential sector, the relative proportions of electricity use in the commercial sector have remained mostly constant since 1990. Lighting and a few other activities comprise just over 50 percent of commercial electricity use. This is very similar to the proportion that lighting and appliance use comprise in the residential sector. Computers and office equipment have represented a constant 8 percent of commercial electricity since 1990. Refrigeration and water heating have comprised 9 percent and 2 percent, respectively. While space heating has consistently consumed 5 percent of commercial electricity, cooling and ventilation have required nearly five times as much power, representing a quarter of all electricity used in this sector.

25

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Figure 2.11 Oregon emissions from generation of electricity, by industrial use 8 7 6 Million MTCO2e 5 4 3 2 1 Industrial processes Other Lighting Facility HVAC Machine drive

The industrial sectors electricity use differs from the residential and commercial sectors. Electricity demand for the many types of electrical motors (machine drive) found in almost every manufacturing process has consistently represented half the electrical demand of industrial facilities. Facility heating, ventilation, and cooling (HVAC) and lighting have consistently comprised 10 percent and 7 percent of industrial electricity use. Electrical power for various industrial manufacturing processes has comprised a quarter of industrial electricity use. Finally, a remaining 8 percent of industrial electricity demand is spread across a variety of other uses, such as onsite transportation and electrical boilers.
Emissions per capita

Following is a comparison of how Oregons greenhouse gas emissions compare to similar inventories for California, Washington and the United States. These data are shown on a per-capita basis for more meaningful comparison.

26

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Figure 2.12 9 10 Per-capita emissions for United States, Oregon, Washington , and California 30
8

25

Metric tons per capita

20

15

10 United States 5 Oregon Washington California 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Overall, Oregons per capita emissions have been consistently higher than Washingtons, both of which are higher than Californias. The difference between Oregon and Washington may be explained by the formers greater reliance on fossil fuels for electricity; Washingtons utilities have consistently had access to more hydroelectric power. Californias greater population, different climate, and more diverse economy make it difficult to identify specific reasons why its emissions are lower on a per-capita basis than the northwestern states. All three states have lower per capita emissions than the national average. This is, in part, due to the western states cleaner electricity sources, particularly hydroelectricity.

United States data is published in the US EPAs Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 2010. This data is available online at: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/usinventoryreport.html 9 Data from Washington Department of Ecology, available on their website: http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/ghg_inventory.htm Washington data is currently only available through 2008. 10 California greenhouse gas data are published by the California Air Resources Board. These data are available online here: http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/data.htm 27

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Figure 2.13 Per-capita emissions for Oregon, Washington, and United States, by sector 9% 36%

Oregon (2010)
Transportation Residential & Commercial Industrial Agriculture

21%

35% 6%

Washington (2008)

8%

United States (2010)


27%

21% 28%

46%

30% 35%

Lower emissions associated with the generation of electricity used in Washington, compared to the electricity used in Oregon, cause Washingtons transportation sector to be a greater proportion of that states emissions. Similarly, Oregons residential and commercial sector comprises a larger share of the states emissions because the electricity used by this sector emits more greenhouse gases. The transportation sector comprises a smaller portion of the national emissions, with roughly commensurate increases in shares associated with the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Once again, this is likely due to the higher average emissions intensity of the federal electricity mix as the United States average includes more fossil fuels than are used to generate electricity used in Oregon or Washington.

28

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

CHAPTER THREE: Consumption-based emissions inventory


1. Inventory overview

Oregon's consumption-based emissions inventory estimates the global emissions of greenhouse gases associated with satisfying Oregon's consumption of goods and services (including energy). Consumption is defined in economic terms consistent with "final demand" of goods and services by Oregon households, government (federal, state, and local) facilities located in Oregon, and one small category of business expenditures: investment (including capital and inventory formation). This inventory includes global emissions associated with the wide range of stuff that Oregonians purchase, including food, vehicles, appliances, furnishings, and electronics, as well as services, fuels and electricity. Consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions are included in this inventory regardless of whether they physically originate in Oregon or elsewhere. The consumption perspective is informative because, in economic terms, consumption is the root driver of all economic activity. By extension, understanding the emissions associated with Oregon's consumption provides valuable perspective on root drivers of greenhouse gas emissions. The consumption-based inventory also compliments other inventory perspectives. For example, while the in-boundary inventory described in Chapter 2 estimates the energy used by Oregon buildings, the consumption-based inventory shows the emissions associated with producing the materials and furnishings used during construction and remodeling. Similarly, while the in-boundary inventory includes the emissions at the point of power generation for electricity used in Oregon, the consumption-based inventory adds to these upstream emissions, such as those associated with mining, processing, and transporting the coal used to produce electricity. 11 The consumption-based inventory reveals additional information about emissions. It estimates the emissions associated with all government procurement. It includes life cycle emissions of goods and services (including electric power and fuels) consumed in Oregon, and explores where in the life cycle, and where in the world, most of these emissions actually occur. It can be used to understand how households with different consumption patterns and incomes contribute to climate change. Because the inventory is derived from an economic model, it also estimates the emissions intensities (emissions per dollar spent) of different types of consumption. This can be used to understand how emissions might change if consumers shift from high-intensity spending (e.g., air travel) to lower-intensity spending (e.g., staycations). The inventory, and the underlying analysis that informs it, may also be used to help prioritize consumer actions, to communicate to consumers how they contribute to emissions, and to help businesses better understand the average carbon footprints of different types of products. It is important to understand how the consumption-based emissions inventory treats the emissions associated with use of energy, such as fuels and electricity. Globally, most greenhouse gas emissions result from the combustion of fossil fuels, and that is also the case of Oregons consumption-based emissions, even as the emissions are assigned to the various (non-energy) commodities being consumed and used. In the consumption-based inventory, emissions associated with the direct use of fuels and electricity by consumers (households and government) are counted and assigned to the commodities using the fuels or electricity (such as vehicles or lighting fixtures). Emissions from energy use by Oregon
However, upstream emissions in the consumption-based inventory are only included for fuels used in the course of satisfying consumption, not all electricity used in Oregon as in the in-boundary inventory. Fuels used to satisfy consumption are those used directly by Oregon households and governments, and those used by any businesses (including power generators) in the course of satisfying other consumption (including electricity, materials and services) by Oregon households and governments, as well as business capital formation. Use of electricity and fuels by Oregon businesses for the purpose of export for final consumption or intermediate goods that support final consumption by other states or nations are not counted as part of consumption-based emissions. 29
11

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

businesses are included only if the energy is used in the course of satisfying Oregon consumption; emissions from using energy to produce exports for final consumption elsewhere are not included. The consumption-based inventory also includes the emissions from energy use by out-of-state producers that are selling into Oregon or otherwise involved in the supply chain of products consumed in Oregon. In all cases of business energy use, emissions are categorized not as energy but rather according to the type of commodity consumed by the final consumer. A more robust explanation of the methodology used to estimate consumption-based emissions is provided in Appendix B. Changes in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases associated with land-use change are not included in the consumption-based inventory. For example, carbon storage by regional forests, or carbon releases as tropical forests are replaced with plantations are not included. Emissions that originate from sources inside Oregon are also not included if they don't contribute to satisfying consumption by Oregon, as Oregon businesses produce many goods and services that are exported for consumption elsewhere. The 2010 consumption-based inventory builds on a 2005 inventory that was developed under contract by Stockholm Environment Institute's US Center. Reports associated with the 2005 inventory (which was completed and published in 2011) are available on DEQ's website. The 2010 consumption-based inventory was conducted in-house by DEQ staff, with some changes to data sources and methodology, as documented in Appendix B. More information on the general approach and methodology are also provided in Appendix B and these previously published reports. Consumption-based inventories have only been developed for Oregon for calendar years 2005 and 2010. A 1990 baseline estimate has not been developed. DEQ plans to update the full consumption-based inventory at least every five years (for 2015, 2020, etc.). Simpler estimations of the consumption based inventory may be developed for intervening years.
Classification of emissions

The model used to construct the consumption-based inventory produces complex results. Certain variables, some of which can be aggregated or disaggregated for varying amounts of detail, allow the emissions from consumption to be shown in different ways. Before presenting the results, it is important to describe the classification systems that afford this flexibility. These classifications fall in to four categories: Type of consumer: Emissions are estimated for four different categories of consumption (household, federal government, state/local government, and investment) Commodity type: 440 different commodities are grouped into 62 subcategories, 16 categories, and 4 meta-categories (materials, services, fuel, and electricity). For example, the commodity computers is part of the subcategory computers and peripherals, which is in the electronics category. It is classified as a material. In contrast, the commodity involving internet service providers, while also part of the electronics category, is assigned to the subcategory computer service and equipment and the meta-category of services. Life-cycle phase: Emissions are further divided into five life-cycle phases (production, pre-purchase transportation, wholesale/retail, use, and post-consumer disposal). Location of emission: Emissions are divided into the locations in which they occur (in-state, otherUS, and foreign). The wide range of variables used in this model allow estimation of fairly specific types of emissions such as the foreign emissions associated with production of tires (one of the 440 commodities) purchased by Oregon households.

Following are further descriptions of these classification types.

30

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Type of consumer: Oregon households purchase commodities for their final use, including goods, services, fuel for vehicles and home heating, and electricity. In 2010, 71 percent of Oregon's consumption (in dollars) came from households (up from 68 percent in 2005). 12 Oregon-based local, state and federal government entities purchase commodities including goods, services, fuel, and electricity. Oregon-based federal government activities are responsible for 4 percent of Oregon's final demand (up from 2 percent in 2005), while local and state government activities account for 13 percent (up from 12 percent in 2005). Transfer payments are not included in Oregon-based federal government activities, except to the extent that the revenue from such payments is used by Oregon households or local/state governments to engage in consumption. Federal government consumption does not include Oregon's "share" of or "contribution" to (via taxes or voting) out-of-state emissions associated with federal government activities such as foreign affairs and military activities. Most business purchases are not consumption, but one category is: investment purchases, or the equipment and inventory that businesses purchase but don't sell in the same year. The inventory that firms purchase or produce and then sell in the same year create emissions that are measured in the consumption-based inventory, but these purchases do not constitute final consumption and therefore only enter into the inventory when the resulting final good is purchased by an Oregon consumer. Business investment accounts for 13 percent of Oregon's final demand in dollars, down from 18 percent in 2005. Emissions associated with construction of nonresidential buildings are included as "investment", while emissions associated with construction of residential buildings are modeled as "investment" expenses but portrayed in results as "household" consumption.

Commodity type: Commodities: Data are calculated and reported in 440 types of commodities. Roughly 8 percent of these commodities have no "final demand" in Oregon, that is, Oregon's consumers do not purchase these products; instead, many products have an "intermediate" use in production and are purchased by businesses that use them to make other products, both additional intermediate products and commodities for final consumption. 13,14 Sub-categories: The 440 commodity sectors are grouped into 62 sub-categories. Categories: The 62 sub-categories are grouped into 16 categories: appliances, clothing, construction, electronics, food and beverages, furnishings and supplies, healthcare, lighting and fixtures, other manufactured goods, services, transportation services, vehicles and parts, retailers, wholesale, water and wastewater, and other. Meta-categories: The 440 commodity sectors are also grouped into 4 meta-categories: materials, services, fuels and electricity. A few commodities, such as restaurants and construction-related activities are simultaneously classified as both materials and services.

Life-cycle phase: Pre-purchase phase: The pre-purchase phase is an umbrella that includes three phases that occur prior to final purchase:

Consumption is sometimes referred to as final demand. Another 8 percent have final demand between $1 and $1,000,000, which is still very small when compared to total final demand in excess of $160 billion. 14 Considering only household consumption, approximately 34 percent of the commodities in IMPLANs model have no household demand. For many commodities, final demand is limited to capital and inventory purchases by businesses.
13

12

31

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Production phase: Emissions from the manufacture of goods are classified as production phase emissions. For example, in the case of a cookie, this phase includes not only the emissions from the cookie factory itself, but also the emissions that resulted from making all of the supplies purchased by the factory, including flour, sugar, chocolate, oils, water, electricity, and packaging. For services, such as a haircut, production phase emissions include the emissions associated with providing the service (e.g., operating the hair salon) as well as emissions resulting from making all of the supplies purchased by the service provider (e.g., smocks, shampoo, scissors, brooms, electricity, water, etc.). Pre-purchase transportation phase: Consumer products, and the supplies used to manufacture them, often make several stops on their way from factory to retail store. Transportation emissions from intermediate producer (the makers of the flour and chocolate in the cookie example above) to the final producer (the cookie factory) to wholesale warehouse to retail store are all classified as pre-purchase transportation. Transportation in the supply chain, prior to final production, is assigned to the commodity being consumed. 15 In contrast, transportation from the final producer through wholesale to retail is assigned to the transportation services commodities. 16 For example, consider a bakery that purchases flour from a flour mill and ships bread to a retailer. Both sets of transportation-related emissions are assigned to the pre-purchase transportation phase. The upstream supply chain emissions (transporting wheat to the flour mill and flour to the bakery) are assigned to the commodity bread and bakery product manufacturing. The emissions from transportation of the finished bread to the retailer are assigned to the commodity truck transport. To be clear, emissions from post-purchase transportation (bringing the bread home from the store) are assigned to the use phase of vehicles, below. Wholesale and retail phase: Warehouses and retail stores cause greenhouse gas emissions primarily from lighting, electronics and temperature control. This phase includes direct and upstream (including electricity and fuel) emissions of wholesalers and retailers. As with pre-purchase transportation, once a final good is produced, the wholesale and retail emissions are assigned to the wholesale and retail commodities. In contrast, wholesale and retail activities upstream of the final producer (for example, a law office purchasing paper from a retailer, or a manufacturer of car parts purchasing packaging from a wholesaler) are still assigned to the wholesale and retail phase, but for the final commodity being produced (e.g., legal services, vehicle parts).

Use phase: Some products cause emissions when used by the final consumer. For example, heating fuel causes emissions when burned in the consumer's furnace, and gasoline causes emissions when burned in the consumer's car engine. The use phase also includes emissions associated with electricity used by consumers, such as for lighting or computers. Use phase emissions include emissions at the point of combustion, as well as supply chain emissions associated with fuels that are combusted (e.g., emissions from petroleum refineries and coal mines). Post-consumer disposal phase: The final life-cycle phase is disposal. This phase includes only the emissions that result from the post-consumer landfilling or combustion of products. This phase does not include emissions from industrial or commercial waste, which are instead classified as production emissions (but only to the extent that they occur as a result of Oregon consumption).

This represents a change in presentation of results from the original (Stockholm Environment Institute) report (2005 inventory). The 2005 inventory assigned supply chain transportation (prior to final production) to the production stage of the life cycle, thus mixing it with manufacturing other process-related emissions. 16 This is a consequence of the underlying economic model, which treats any consumer purchase of a finished good as four discrete purchases: one of the good itself, a separate purchase of transportation (from the final producer to the point of sale), and separate purchases of wholesaling and retailing services. 32

15

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

This phase does not include any "credits" for emissions reductions resulting from recycling or composting, except to the extent that recycling and composting reduce emissions from landfilling and combustion. To the extent that materials purchased for consumption in Oregon already contain average levels of recycled content, these benefits are already reflected in the pre-purchase emissions. Location of emission: Oregon in-state: emissions occurring in Oregon associated with Oregon consumption. These include upstream requirements of production for Oregon consumption but only when the intermediate products are made in Oregon. Other-49-state: emissions in other U.S. states associated with Oregon consumption. These include U.S.-made upstream requirements of production for Oregon consumption. Foreign emissions are foreign production for Oregon consumption, both final production (e.g., cars) as well as production of intermediate commodities (e.g., steel) that are subsequently used in production of other goods and services. Consumption-based emissions

2.

Tables 3.1 and 3.2 summarize Oregon's consumption-based emissions for 2005 and 2010. Emissions are shown for 16 categories (Table 3.1) and 4 meta-categories (Table 3.2). For ease of comparison and review, life-cycle stages in Table 3.1 are condensed from five to three, with production, pre-purchase transportation, and wholesale/retail combined into a single "pre-purchase" phase. 2010 results for all 5 phases and for 62 different subcategories are reported in Table 3.3, described later in this chapter. Emissions by meta-category are also portrayed in Figure 3.1. Meta-categories of fuels and electricity refer only to the direct consumption of these commodities by Oregon consumers. The other metacategories of materials and services also contribute significantly to emissions when viewed through the lens of consumption, primarily as a result of the use of electricity and fuel combustion by the businesses that produce the materials and services for Oregon consumption.

33

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Table 3.1 Oregon consumption-based emissions, by category, 2005 and 2010 (Million MTCO2e)

Vehicles and parts Appliances Food and beverages Services Construction Healthcare Other manufactured goods Transportation services Electronics Furnishings and supplies Retailers Lighting and fixtures Clothing Wholesale Water and wastewater Other Total

Prepurchase 2.6 0.3 8.9 5.5 5.1 4.0 5.3 3.4 2.1 2.7 2.1 <0.1 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.4 45.3

2005 17 Postconsumer Use disposal 13.0 <0.1 11.4 <0.1 * 0.3 * 0.1 * 0.1 * <0.1 * <0.1 * 1.4 * * 2.9 * * * * 28.7 <0.1 <0.1 0.3 0.0 <0.1 <0.1 0.0 <0.1 <0.1 0.8

Total 15.6 11.7 9.2 5.6 5.2 4.0 5.3 3.4 3.5 3.0 2.1 2.9 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.4 74.8

Prepurchase 1.4 0.3 10.1 6.9 5.3 5.0 4.5 3.7 1.5 2.7 2.3 <0.1 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.6 46.5

2010 Postconsumer Use disposal 12.6 <0.1 11.9 <0.1 * 0.2 * <0.1 * 0.1 * <0.1 * <0.1 * 1.3 * * 1.9 * * * * 27.7 <0.1 <0.1 0.1 0.0 <0.1 <0.1 0.0 <0.1 <0.1 0.5

Total 13.9 12.2 10.3 6.9 5.4 5.0 4.5 3.7 2.8 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.6 74.7

Totals may not add exactly due to rounding. *Use phase emissions from these product categories are zero, though in some cases emissions may be associated with the use of products in these categories but are assigned to another category. For example, emissions associated with washing clothing (e.g., use of a washing machine) are included under the use phase of appliances, as are the emissions associated with home heating and food preparation (e.g., a refrigerator, range oven, microwave, or blender).

Just three broad categories represent almost half of all consumption-based emissions: vehicles and parts (19 percent), appliances (16 percent), and food and beverages (14 percent). Emissions associated with vehicles and appliances are largely related to their use, although there are significant emissions associated with production of vehicles. In contrast, emissions associated with food are primarily related to production.

17

The 2005 results shown in Table 3.1 deviate from the results published in the original technical and summary reports prepared by Stockholm Environment Institute for two reasons. First, the original 2005 inventory (as published) used a model to estimate the emissions associated with use of vehicles. The 2010 inventory combines an update to this model with results from ODOTs GreenStep Model. 2005 results in Table 3.1 for "vehicle use" are adjusted from SEI's original model to be comparable with the estimate for 2010. The second change is a result of changes to the underlying economic modeling system. Both 2005 and 2010 inventories use the IMPLAN economic modeling system to populate the emissions model. However, IMPLAN's 2005 model used a different economic categorization system than the 2010 model. This required a reclassification of some commodities. Further, Stockholm Environment Institute reclassified a few commodities between its technical and summary reports. In addition, DEQ, upon closer review of the 2005 categorization scheme, also reclassified a few commodities and subcategory names when producing the 2010 model. Additional details are provided in the Technical Note in Appendix B.

34

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Table 3.2 18, 19 Oregon consumption-based emissions by meta-category

Electricity Fuels Materials Services Total

2005 Million MTCO2e Percent of total 12.0 16% 16.8 22% 27.5 37.1 37% 50% 8.8 18.5 12% 25% 74.8 100%

2010 Million MTCO2e Percent of total 10.9 15% 16.3 22% 25.8 35.8 35% 48% 11.7 21.7 16% 29% 74.7 100%

Figure 3.1 Oregon consumption-based emissions by Meta-category 80 70 60 Materials or Services Million MTCO2e 50 40 30 20 10 Electricity 0 2005 2010 Fuels

Services

Materials

Changes in consumption-based emissions from 2005 to 2010

Table 3.1 illustrates very little change in overall consumption-based emissions between 2005 (74.8 million MTCO2e) and 2010 (74.7 million MTCO2e) - a decrease of 0.1 million MTCO2e. While nominal statewide consumption, reflected by spending, grew roughly 15 percent between 2005 ($146 billion) and 2010 ($168 billion), real consumption after adjusting for inflation only grew about 3 percent. In other words, consumption-based emissions were essentially flat despite a small increase in real consumption.

18 As noted in the previous section, 2005 emissions associated with fuels have been adjusted downward from the original (published) estimate to reflect a change in methodology in estimating emissions associated with vehicle use. 19 Materials and services are expressed as ranges because certain commodities can be classified as either materials or services. These include consumption at restaurants and the purchase of buildings and building-related services (e.g., roof replacement).

35

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Despite the relative stability in overall consumption-based emissions, certain emissions changed more significantly. Pre-purchase emissions grew by 1.2 million MTCO2e while use-phase emissions fell by 1 million MTCO2e and emissions associated with post-consumer waste disposal fell 0.3 MTCO2e. Some of the underlying drivers behind each of these changes are discussed below. Pre-purchase emissions increased 1.2 million MTCO2e from 2005 to 2010. Among the 16 categories of commodities, six saw changes in excess of 0.5 million MTCO2e: services (+1.4 million), vehicles and parts (-1.2 million), food and beverages (+1.2 million), healthcare (+1.0 million), other manufactured goods (-0.8 million) and electronics (-0.6 million). Underlying drivers of these changes include the following: Pre-purchase emissions associated with consumption of services increased by 1.4 million MTCO2e. o After adjusting for inflation (that is, in real terms), consumption of services was 15 percent higher in 2010. One significant increase occurred in consumption of higher education services, reflecting increasing enrollment in college associated with the soft employment market. Even as consumption of services rose, the emissions intensity (emissions per dollar, again, in real terms) also rose, by 8 percent. The underlying cause of this is unclear, although some of this increase may be a result of a change in the emissions modeling methodology between the 2005 and 2010 inventories.20

Pre-purchase emissions associated with vehicles and parts fell by 1.2 million MTCO2e, reflecting weakened demand for cars and light trucks among all types of consumers, including households as well as businesses (where vehicle purchases are considered to be capital/investments and as such counted as consumption). Real emissions intensities (emissions per dollar) were essentially unchanged. Pre-purchase emissions of food and beverages increased 1.2 million MTCO2e. o Overall consumption (purchases) of food and beverages rose 7 percent in real (inflationadjusted) terms. This coincides with changes in Oregons population, which grew 6 percent during the same time period. However, the changes in food purchases were not evenly distributed. Restaurant purchases (which tend to have below-average emissions intensities) and consumption of animal products (which typically have above-average emissions intensities) both failed to keep pace with Oregons 6 percent population growth (1 3 percent inflation-adjusted increases). At the same time, much larger increases were observed in consumption of grains and baked goods, beverages, and condiments/oils/sweeteners, as well as a significant increase in spending on pet foods.21 At the same time, the emissions intensity of food consumed by Oregonians (emissions per dollar, in real terms) also rose 7 percent. This was a consequence of two factors. The more significant is that while few subcategories of foods showed decreases in emissions intensities between 2005 and 2010 (for example, through process improvements or energy efficiency), other subcategories of food, and representing a greater share of food purchases (including seafood, baked goods, beverages, frozen foods, condiments/oils/sweeteners, and pet foods),

20 Specifically, commercial sector energy-related emissions for the U.S. were estimated in 2005 using economic allocation. In 2010, these same emissions were allocated using both economic allocation and application of the Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey (see Appendix B for details). This methodological change resulted in more commercial-sector energyrelated emissions being allocated to private colleges, which also happen to be a commodity with relatively high consumption (in dollars). 21 It should be noted that the consumption data that underlies this part of the consumption-based emissions inventory is based on national survey data, adjusted for Oregon based on household income stratification. Changes in actual Oregon purchases are not known and may deviate from the national trend. Please see Appendix B for additional details.

36

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

apparently increased their emissions intensities (emissions per dollar) in real terms. At the same time, some of the types of foods with the greatest increases in consumption between 2005 and 2010, such as pet food and condiments/oils/sweeteners, also have above-average emissions intensities. Put differently, the average market basket of foods purchased by Oregonians shifted very slightly towards more emissions-intensive foods, even as consumption of the most emissions-intensive foods (primarily animal products) did not increase significantly. o Subcategories showing the greatest increases in overall emissions included grains/baked goods/cereals, beverages (emissions increased for both non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages), and pet food.

Pre-purchase emissions associated with healthcare rose 1.0 million MTCO2e. o o Consumption in real terms was 13 percent higher in 2010 than 2005. Increases were observed in both medical services (hospital stays, doctor visits) and in purchases of pharmaceuticals. Real emissions intensities were 12 percent higher in 2010 than 2005. However, while emissions intensities rose for healthcare services, they fell for medicines.

Pre-purchase emissions associated with the category other manufactured goods fell by 0.8 million MTCO2e. This was largely due to a decline in real consumption, particularly purchases of heavyduty trucks and other capital equipment by Oregon businesses. Real emissions intensities were essentially unchanged. Pre-purchase emissions of electronics fell by 0.6 million MTCO2e. Overall consumption in real terms was relatively stable (up 3 percent between 2005 and 2010). But this masks large changes in the composition of this spending. Between 2005 and 2010 there were significant declines in spending on hardware (which tends to be more emissions intensive to produce), compensated by nearly equivalent increases in spending on services, such as web hosting and programming. These service-related commodities tend to have much lower emissions intensities, thus the overall decline in emissions.

Use phase emissions fell 1.0 million MTCO2e. Key factors influencing this change include: The most significant change was in the category of lighting and fixtures, where emissions fell from 2.9 million MTCO2e to 1.9 million MTCO2e. Overall consumption of electricity fell between 2005 and 2010, although use for non-lighting applications (e.g., plug loads) increased even as electricity use for lighting decreased. 22 Emissions associated with vehicle use declined 0.4 million MTCO2e, despite a growing population. Higher gasoline prices probably contributed some to this decline, by stimulating improvements in fuel economy. Emissions associated with the use of appliances increased by 0.5 million MTCO2e. Most of the gain was in the use of appliances for heating and cooling (furnaces, air conditioning, and hot water) and may have been driven in part by increasing population. Weather did not drive this increase; heating degree days for Oregon (population-weighted) in 2010 were within 1 percent of the value for 2005. 23

22

This large of a decrease over a relatively short period may be due in part to allocation or other modeling errors.
National Climatic Data Center, NOAA.

23

37

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Disposal phase emissions fell 0.3 million MTCO2e. Some of this apparent decrease was caused by a change in how disposal-related emissions were modeled in 2010.24 However, some of the decrease is real, both in reduced consumption and reduced emission intensity. Overall disposal tonnage was 16 percent lower in 2010 than in 2005. Further, most of Oregons solid waste goes to landfills and significant improvements in landfill gas capture systems between 2005 and 2010 means that less of the gas that is generated will be emitted to the atmosphere. In addition, changes to the types of materials being used and thrown away means that Oregons landfilled waste is slowly becoming less methanogenic (methaneproducing) over time as, for example, Oregonians use and dispose of less paper products. 3. Additional considerations

Following are several additional ways to examine the results of the consumption-based inventory by aggregating the emissions by life-cycle phase, location of emission, type of consumer, and commodity type. Emissions intensities (greenhouse gas emissions per dollar) are explored at the end of this section.
Emissions by life-cycle phase and subcategory

Table 3.3 summarizes Oregon's consumption-based emissions for 2010. Emissions are portrayed at the level of 62 subcategories, grouped into 16 categories.
Table 3.3 Oregon 2010 consumption-based emissions by commodity sub-category and life-cycle phase (Million MTCO2e)

Oregon total emissions Appliances Heating and cooling appliances Ranges and microwaves Refrigerators and freezers Washers and dryers Other appliances Clothing Construction Concrete, cement, lime and gypsum Residential construction and remodeling Non-residential construction and remodeling Electronics Computers and peripherals
24

Pre-purchase Production transportation 37.7 5.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.4 4.9 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.2

Wholesale/ retail 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Use 27.7 11.9 9.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Postconsumer disposal 0.5 0.0

Total 74.7 12.2 9.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.3 1.4 5.4 0.0 2.4

0.0 0.1

2.6

0.2

0.0

0.0

2.8

1.5 0.7

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

1.3 0.3

0.0

2.8 1.0

See Appendix B for details.

38

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Computer service and equipment Other electronics Food and beverages Beverages Condiments, oils and sweeteners Dairy Other frozen food Fruit and vegetables Grains, baked goods, cereals, nuts Pet food Poultry and eggs Other meat (beef, pork, etc.) Restaurants Seafood Other animal products Other food and agriculture Furnishings and supplies Furnishings Household supplies Lawn and garden Media Office supplies Healthcare Medicines Healthcare services Lighting and fixtures Other manufactured goods Forestries, mills, paper Foundries, metal processing Machinery manufacture Heavy transportation equipment Mobile homes Missiles, weapons Other manufacturers Retailers Services
39

Pre-purchase Production transportation 0.3 0.0 0.5 9.5 0.9 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.6 1.8 2.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.5 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.4 4.7 1.1 3.6 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 1.5 0.0 6.5 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4

Wholesale/ retail Use 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Postconsumer disposal

Total 0.3 1.5 10.3 1.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.6 1.8 2.2 0.1 0.2 0.2

0.2

0.1

2.8 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.4 5.0 1.2 3.8 1.9 4.5 0.2 0.0 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 1.5 2.3 6.9

0.0

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Banks and financial services Building services Car rental, repair and wash Education and day care Entertainment and media Hotels and motels Legal, real estate, insurance Personal services Waste management 25 Other services Transportation services Vehicles and parts Vehicle parts Vehicles Water and wastewater Wholesale Other Oil and gas Other mining Other

Pre-purchase Production transportation 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.4 0.0 1.3 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Wholesale/ retail Use 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.6 0.0 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Postconsumer disposal

Total 1.0 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.5 3.7 13.9 0.3 13.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.6

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0

Totals and subtotals may not add exactly due to rounding.

Together, production and use contribute more than 87 percent of consumption-based emissions. Production (50 percent of total) includes the extraction of natural resources, manufacturing of finished goods, and the direct provision of services. It also includes supply chain emissions including the manufacture of goods and provision of services upstream of the final producer. However, supply chain emissions associated with transportation and supply chain wholesale and retail activity are not included in this life-cycle stage. Use emissions (37 percent of total) are the life-cycle (e.g., well to wheel) emissions associated with the direct use of appliances, electronic devices, lights, and vehicles by Oregon consumers. Transportation is also significant when viewed through the lens of consumption (for example, the perspective of a household), with transportation emissions totaling roughly 18.5 million MTCO2e, or about 25 percent of all consumption-based emissions. In the consumption-based inventory, the use of personal vehicles contributes more to emissions than freight. 26 The use of vehicles by consumers (households and government) contributes 12.6 million MTCO2e. Looking at vehicle use by business, the consumption-based inventory only includes vehicle use (although everywhere in the world) associated with transporting goods that are either sold to Oregon consumers or are used as components of such

25 Emissions associated with consumer purchases of waste management services are reassigned to the post-consumer disposal phase for disposed materials. 26 The opposite is true in the expanded transportation sector inventory presented in Chapter Four.

40

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

goods. 27 For consumed goods, freight-related emissions are still significant (between 2.3 and 5.9 million MTCO2e), but still considerably less than the emissions associated with producing the goods in the first place (37.7 million MTCO2e). When considering all emissions associated with freight movement into and through Oregon, as shown in the in-boundary and expanded transportation sector inventories, freight takes on greater significance. This is a consequence of the above-average size and importance of Oregons transportation industry and infrastructure, and its location on major transportation routes, compared to a relatively smaller consumer base. Because of the underlying economic model, emissions associated with shipping goods appear in three different locations in Table 3.3: Supply chain transportation - or all transportation that occurs prior to final production - is included in the column titled "pre-purchase transportation" and assigned to the final commodity being consumed. This would include, for example, the transport of grain from a farm to a mill, transport of flour from the mill to a bakery, and transport of bread bags from a packaging manufacturer to a bakery. These emissions are relatively small, totaling 2.3 million MTCO2e, or 3 percent of consumption-based emissions. For example, while overall "pre-purchase" emissions for "food and beverages" (less "restaurants") are estimated at 7.96 million MTCO2e, only 0.54 million MTCO2e (7 percent) occur as a result of transportation. Once the finished products are made and transported from the final producer through wholesale channels to retail (for example, transporting bread from a bakery to a grocery store), these transport emissions are included in the category "transportation services". However, "transportation services" also include direct purchases of transport services (e.g., personal airline travel) by consumers. Thus, the emissions in Table 3.3 of 3.7 million MTCO2e associated with "transportation services" (5 percent of total consumption-based emissions) represent both the emissions associated with direct purchases of transportation services by consumers (e.g., airplane, train and boat tickets) as well as all of the emissions associated with transporting finished goods from the producers to the retail locations. Finally, when consumers purchase goods at a retail location and transport them home in personal vehicles, those emissions are included in the "use" column of the category "vehicles and parts." Emissions associated with vehicle use by consumers (12.6 million MTCO2e) are considerably larger than the emissions associated with transporting goods prior to sale, although of course personal vehicle emissions are associated with transporting people (e.g., commuting) as well as goods.

Wholesale/retail activities associated with consumption contribute only 4 percent of total consumptionbased emissions. The vast majority of these emissions occur downstream of the final producer. Postconsumer waste disposal contributes only 1 percent. As mentioned in the previous section, it is important to note that just three broad categories represent almost half of all consumption-based emissions: vehicles and parts (19 percent), appliances (16 percent), and food and beverages (14 percent). Emissions associated with vehicles and appliances are largely related to their use, although there are significant emissions associated with production of vehicles. In contrast, emissions associated with food are primarily related to production.

27 Many of the freight-related emissions in Oregons in-boundary and expanded transportation sector inventories are a consequence of either pass through freight (e.g., truck trips between Washington and California) or multi-model freight trips with mode changes in Oregon (e.g., inbound transport of Asian-made goods that are re-loaded in Portland and then shipped to other states for sale). Most of these emissions are not included in Oregons consumption-based inventory, as they do not involve consumption by Oregon.

41

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Among vehicles and parts, most emissions are associated with the subcategory of vehicles (13.6 million MTCO2e, or 18 percent of total). For appliances, most emissions are associated with heating and cooling (9.8 million MTCO2e, or 13 percent of total). For food, the provision of restaurant services (including both the production of food as well as the actual service of preparing and serving it) and the consumption of other meat (primarily beef but also pork and lamb) contribute 2.1 (2.9 percent) and 1.8 (2.5 percent) million MTCO2e, respectively. Other subcategories contributing 2.5 percent of more to overall consumption-based emissions include residential (2.4 million MTCO2e) and nonresidential (2.8 million MTCO2e) construction and remodeling, healthcare services (3.8 million MTCO2e), lighting (1.9 million MTCO2e), machinery manufacture (2.2 million MTCO2e), retail (2.3 million MTCO2e) 28, and transportation services (3.7 million MTCO2e).
Emissions by location

Table 3.4 summarizes Oregon's 2010 consumption-based emissions by location. This table does not include the transfer of electricity, upstream fuel, and waste disposal emissions to the sectors representing the commodity used or discarded.
Table 3.4 Oregon 2010 consumption-based emissions by location (Million MTCO2e)

Location of emission

Oregon total emissions Appliances Clothing Construction Electronics Food and beverages Fuel and utilities 29 Furnishing and supplies Healthcare Lighting and fixtures Other manufactured goods Retailers Services Transportation services Vehicles and parts Wholesale Other

In-state production 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.2 2.3 4.5 0.3 1.2 0.0 0.5 0.8 2.1 1.6 0.0 0.3 0.1

Imports from U.S. 25.3 0.1 0.0 2.1 0.3 5.7 5.1 1.1 2.6 0.0 1.6 1.0 3.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.2

Foreign imports 17.4 0.2 1.3 1.5 1.0 2.2 1.9 1.2 1.3 0.0 2.3 0.4 1.8 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.2

Use and disposal (less doublecounting correction) 16.3

Total 74.7 0.3 1.4 5.3 1.5 10.1 11.5 2.7 5.0 0.0 4.5 2.3 7.6 3.7 1.4 0.6 0.6

In-state production for in-state consumption is responsible for 21 percent of all 2010 consumption-based emissions (up from 19 percent in 2005). Imports from other states are responsible for 34 percent (up from 31 percent in 2005) and imports from foreign countries 23 percent (up from 22 percent in 2005). The final 22 percent of Oregon's consumption-based emissions are not geographically identified by the model, due primarily to the manner in which emissions associated with electricity and fuels are estimated.
28 29

This value represents the emissions associated with retail operations, not goods made by others that retailers re-sell. This includes the category "water and wastewater" as well as certain sales of electricity and fuels.

42

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

It is important to note a caveat with regard to the underlying estimation model, which uses data from IMPLAN, an economic modeling system. IMPLAN's developers acknowledge uncertainty in estimating regional trade flows (imports and exports) across regional boundaries within the U.S. To the extent that emissions factors are not significantly different for production in Oregon versus other states (see Table 3.9 below), this error takes on less significance in the context of results.
Emissions by type of consumer and household income

Table 3.5 shows the emissions by type of consumer. Household consumption is responsible for 82 percent of Oregon's 2010 consumption-based emissions. Government consumption is responsible for 8.5 percent and business investment for 9.5 percent.
Table 3.5 Oregon 2010 consumption-based emissions by type of consumer (Million MTCO2e)

Oregon total emissions Appliances Clothing Construction Electronics Food and beverages Furnishing and supplies Healthcare Lighting and fixtures Other manufactured goods Retailers Services Transportation services Vehicles and parts Water and wastewater Wholesale Other

Households 61.2 10.8 1.4 2.5 1.8 10.0 2.2 5.0 1.3 0.7 2.2 6.3 3.1 12.8 0.3 0.4 0.5

Government 6.3 1.4 0.0 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.1

Business investment 7.1 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0

Total 74.7 12.2 1.4 5.4 2.8 10.3 2.8 5.0 1.9 4.5 2.3 6.9 3.7 13.9 0.3 0.6 0.6

Different types of consumers contribute to emissions in different ways. In Oregon households, vehicles, appliances, and food and beverages contribute more than half of the total. Appliances top the list for government consumption followed by construction and vehicles. In the business investment category, most emissions are associated with other manufactured goods (such as machinery) and construction. While Oregons households collectively contribute about 82 percent of Oregons total consumption-based emissions, individual households can contribute widely different amounts, depending on how much and what they consume. Lower-income households contribute less on a per-household basis to consumptionbased emissions than higher-income households, largely as a consequence of lower levels of overall consumption. Table 3.6 shows household consumption-based emissions for average Oregon households of different incomes and demonstrates that higher-income households, on average, are contributing relatively more to greenhouse gas emissions. Results from Table 3.6 are also portrayed graphically in Figure 3.2, with emphasis given to categories that contribute at least 10 percent to the average emissions

43

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

for one or more income classes (smaller categories are grouped together as all others to simplify the graphic). It is worth noting that as incomes rise, additional spending tends to shift in the direction of services rather than goods. As services tend to have lower emissions intensities (see Tables 3.7 and 3.8 below), the overall emissions intensity of consumption (emissions per dollar spent) tends to decline slightly with income.
Table 3.6 Oregon 2010 consumption-based emissions for Oregon households by income (Million MTCO2e)

Total Appliances Clothing Construction Electronics Food and beverages Furnishing and supplies Healthcare Lighting and fixtures Other manufactured goods Retailers Services Transportation services Vehicles and parts Water and wastewater Wholesale Other

<$10 18.2 3.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 2.7 0.5 1.1 0.4

$10 $15 20.5 4.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 3.4 0.6 1.9 0.6

Average 2010 household income (thousand 2010 $) $15 $25 $35 $50 $75 $100 $25 $35 $50 $75 $100 $150 23.2 28.6 34.2 43.9 54.8 70.4 4.9 5.9 6.4 7.7 9.1 11.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.3 3.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.0 3.7 0.7 2.5 0.6 4.8 0.9 2.8 0.7 5.9 1.1 2.8 0.8 7.3 1.5 3.6 0.9 9.5 2.0 3.9 1.0 11.2 2.7 4.9 1.3

$150+ 150.7 20.7 4.2 7.0 3.9 22.1 6.7 11.7 2.3

0.2 0.5 2.8 1.2 3.8 0.1 0.1 0.1

0.2 0.4 2.2 0.8 3.8 0.1 0.1 0.1

0.3 0.6 1.9 1.1 4.5 0.1 0.1 0.2

0.3 0.6 2.7 1.1 5.9 0.2 0.1 0.2

0.4 1.1 3.3 1.6 7.0 0.2 0.2 0.2

0.5 1.4 4.4 1.9 9.7 0.2 0.4 0.4

0.7 2.4 5.2 2.5 12.0 0.3 0.5 0.5

1.0 3.4 7.1 3.6 15.4 0.3 0.6 0.8

2.0 7.2 19.6 11.3 28.6 0.7 0.7 2.0

44

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Figure 3.2 Oregon 2010 consumption-based emissions for average Oregon households by income 160 Average 2010 per-household emissions (MT CO2e) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 <$10 $10 - $15 - $25 - $35 - $50 - $75 $100 - $150+ $15 $25 $35 $50 $75 $100 $150 Household Income, Thousand $ Emissions intensities All others Healthcare Services Food and beverages Appliances Vehicles and parts

Emissions intensities (consumption-based emissions per dollar of final demand) are presented in Tables 3.7 and 3.8. Both tables represent the 2010 mix of in-state, other domestic, and foreign producers serving Oregon. Emissions in these tables, as in all previous tables, are assigned to the commodities where consumption occurs, as opposed to the producing industries (see Table 3.10 below for more on this distinction). Table 3.7 shows emissions intensities for the 16 different categories. These emissions intensities are "3phase" or "pre-purchase". They represent the consumption-based emissions associated with production, pre-purchase transportation, and wholesale/retail. 30 Use phase emissions associated with the direct consumption of electricity and fuels are not included in Table 3.7, nor are emissions associated with postconsumer disposal. Table 3.7 illustrates the average emissions intensities for the 16 different categories of commodities. They range from 0.02 kg CO2e/$ in the category of other to 1.56 kg CO2e on average for every dollar spent on transportation services. With the exception of transportation, categories dominated by service expenses (such as healthcare, retailers, and services) tend to have lower emissions intensities than commodities that are primarily about materials, such as clothing, electronics, food/beverages, furnishings and supplies, and other manufactured goods. Again, the results in Table 3.7 do not include emissions associated with the use of energy by consumers.

30 As before, note that pre-purchase transportation "upstream" of the final producer (supply chain) are assigned to the relevant commodities being produced, while pre-purchase transportation between the final producer and retailer are included in the category of "transportation services".

45

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Table 3.7 31 Oregon 2010 consumption-based emissions, pre-purchase emissions intensities

Appliances Clothing Construction Electronics Food and beverages Furnishings and supplies Healthcare Lighting and fixtures Other manufactured goods Retailers Services Transportation services Vehicles and parts Water and wastewater Wholesale Other Total

Pre-purchase 32 lifecycle analysis (LCA) emissions (million MTCO2e) 0.3 1.4 5.3 1.5 10.1 2.7 5.0 0.0 4.5 2.3 6.9 3.7 1.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 46.5

Final demand (in millions 2010$) 445 1,403 10,871 4,459 12,198 6,291 23,441 23 8,841 12,020 37,513 2,344 2,923 776 5,825 33,328 162,701

Emissions intensities (kg CO2e/$) 0.63 1.00 0.48 0.34 0.83 0.42 0.21 0.59 0.51 0.19 0.18 1.56 0.46 0.44 0.10 0.02 0.29

Table 3.8 shows emissions intensities for the 4 meta-categories: materials, services, fuels, and electricity. These are full life-cycle, or 5 phase emissions. Unlike Table 3.7 which shows pre-purchase emissions and emissions intensities, the values above include emissions associated with use and disposal.
Table 3.8 Oregon 2010 consumption-based emissions, five-phase emissions intensities

Electricity Fuels Materials Services Total


31

Five-phase 33 LCA emissions (million MTCO2e) 10.9 16.3 25.8 35.8 11.7 21.7 74.7

Final demand (in million 2010$) 1,499 4,339 49,818 68,217 94,143 112,542 168,198

Emissions intensities (kg CO2e/$) 7.25 3.76 0.52 0.52 0.12 0.19 0.44

Please note that this table is not directly comparable with Table 8 in SEIs 2005 report for two reasons. First, SEIs report include estimates of emissions associated with fuels and electricity, drawn from the three-phase model but ultimately discarded during construction of the five-phase model in lieu of separate estimates of use phase emissions. Second, emissions intensities in SEIs report are emissions per $ as expressed in nominal 2005 dollars. Emissions intensities in Table 3.7 are expressed in nominal 2010 dollars. 32 The pre-purchase phase is an umbrella for three phases that occur prior to final purchase: production phase, pre-purchase transportation, and wholesale/retail 33 The five-phase perspective includes the three pre-purchase phases (production phase, pre-purchase transportation, and wholesale/retail), plus the use phase and the post-consumer disposal phase. 46

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Relatively little money is spent on direct consumption of electricity and fuels, compared to materials and services, but the resulting emissions are high, leading to high emissions intensities. A dollar spent on materials, on average, results in higher emissions than a dollar spent on average services. It should be noted that the values in the table represent broad averages and that a few services related to transportation, especially air transport, have higher emissions intensities than many materials.
Emissions intensities by production location

Oregon consumers purchase commodities that are made in Oregon, made in other states, and made in foreign countries. Because emissions intensities (emissions per dollar) differ in each of these production locations, if Oregonians were to change their purchasing habits - buy more or less foreign-made products, for example - Oregon's consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions might change. However, because production costs are often lower in foreign countries, shifting consumption patterns from goods produced in locations with low production costs, and thus relatively high emissions intensities, to locally produced goods with lower emissions per dollar may not lower emissions if the local goods simply cost more and require similar emissions during production. Table 3.9 compares Oregon's 2010 consumption-based emissions with estimated emissions if Oregon consumers continued to buy the same items, but chose to buy them from the U.S. or from foreign countries, and that the prices and emissions intensities for production in other states or countries remained unchanged (despite the increase in production). "Oregon Three-Phase LCA" is the Oregon pre-purchase emissions (without use and post-consumer disposal), organized by the sector of the consumed good or service.
Table 3.9 Oregon 2010 consumption-based emissions, comparison of three-phase emissions intensities

Oregon threephase LCA (Oregon) Total Appliances Clothing Construction Electronics Food and beverages Furnishings and supplies Healthcare Lighting and fixtures Other manufactured goods Retailers Services Transportation services Vehicles and parts Water and wastewater Wholesale Other
47

46.5 0.3 1.4 5.3 1.5 10.1 2.7 5.0 <0.1 4.5 2.3 6.9 3.7 1.4 0.3 0.6 0.6

Million MTCO2e In-state final In-state and demand at other-49 final US demand at USintensities import intensities (OR at US) (OR&US at Foreign) 49.5 97.5 0.3 0.3 1.4 1.6 5.3 8.5 1.5 2.4 10.2 12.7 2.7 4.1 5.6 22.7 <0.1 <0.1 4.5 6.5 2.7 6.9 7.9 17.1 4.2 4.4 1.4 1.5 0.3 0.7 0.6 2.3 1.0 5.8

Ratio of OR-atUS to OR 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.5

Ratio of OR&USatforeign to Oregon 2.1 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.6 4.5 1.2 1.4 3.1 2.5 1.2 1.1 2.1 4.0 9.1

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

In the table above, In-State Final Demand at U.S. Intensities represents the life-cycle analysis results using the following assumption: All Oregon in-state production for in-state consumption is produced at U.S. emissions intensities, and at similar costs to Oregon production. In-State and Other 49 Final Demand at U.S.-Import Intensities assumes that all of Oregons consumption is of foreign made products, and that these are produced at the same cost as if they had been made in the U.S. (a highly unlikely assumption for certain types of purchases, such as hand-sewn garments). These higher emissions do not reflect additional emissions associated with longer transportation distances, but rather, are a result of Oregon and U.S. production tending to have lower emissions (per dollar of output) than production elsewhere (consistent with 2010 import mixes). If Oregon consumers switched from Oregon-made to U.S.-produced goods and services (not electricity, fuels, or waste disposal services) it would cause a 7 percent increase in Oregons pre-purchase consumption-based emissions. In contrast, if Oregon consumers switched from Oregon and U.S.produced to foreign-produced goods and services (with no changes in the absolute quantity of goods and services purchased) it would more than double Oregons three-phase pre-purchase consumption-based emissions. U.S.-import intensities are far higher than U.S. and Oregon emissions intensities in almost all sectors. It does not necessarily follow, however, that Oregonians could significantly reduce their consumptionbased emissions by merely buying local. In particular, higher emissions intensities in other countries vs. the US do not necessarily imply higher emission products. For example, Chinese goods may have higher emissions intensities not because the actual per-good emissions are higher, but rather because the cost of production (the denominator) is lower. Furthermore, these findings reflect differences in average rather than marginal emissions intensities. If production were to shift from offshore to Oregon, the marginal sources of electricity used to support this growth could be significantly more carbon intensive than Oregons existing average electricity supply, for example, requiring new investments in natural gas combustion. 34
Emissions by consuming vs. producing sectors

All results thus far have shown emissions organized by consuming sector. For example, when an Oregon resident purchases a shirt, there are emissions from the clothing industry that produces the final shirt. However, the clothing manufacturer also purchases goods and services from other sectors, such as water, buttons, fabrics, packaging, and services such as accounting, legal services, and air flight and hotel stays as part of business trips. When consumption-based emissions are organized by consuming sector, as shown in Tables 3.1 through 3.9, all such emissions, to the extent they are ultimately associated with the production of clothing, are assigned to the "clothing" category. However, it is also possible to organize consumption-based emissions by producing sectors. Table 3.10 takes this approach. Continuing the clothing example, in the "Emissions by Producing Sector" column of Table 3.10, the emissions associated with producing clothing purchased by Oregonians are spread across multiple categories, including clothing but also other manufactured goods (buttons and packaging), transportation, and services. Similarly, the emissions in the "clothing" category include not only emissions at clothing manufacturers for producing clothing purchased directly by Oregon consumers, but also the emissions at clothing manufacturers associated with producing clothing that is used in the supply chain of other goods and services that Oregonians consume, such as hospital stays (the manufacture of scrubs) and computers (the manufacture of "bunny suits" used in clean rooms). In contrast, the
For more exploration of this topic, please refer to Stockholm Environment Institutes Summary Report for the 2005 consumption-based inventory, available at http://www.deq.state.or.us/lq/pubs/docs/ConsumptionBasedGHGEmissionsInventoryORSummaryReport.pdf.
34

48

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

"Consuming Sector" column of Table 3.10 shows emissions organized by type of consumption, for the sake of comparison. The totals in each column are the same, but simply represent a different allocation of emissions for the entire basket of consumption. Emissions in Table 3.10 are three-phase emissions and do not include direct use of fuels or electricity by consumers, or post-consumer waste disposal.
Table 3.10 2010 Oregon pre-purchase consumption-based emissions by producing vs. consuming sectors (Million MTCO2e)

Total Appliances Clothing Construction Electronics Food and beverages Furnishing and supplies Healthcare Lighting and fixtures Other manufactured goods Retailers Services Transportation services Vehicles and parts Fuel and utilities 35 Wholesale Other

Emissions by producing sector 46.5 0.2 1.4 3.7 1.2 6.1 2.0 2.1 <0.1 4.9 0.8 4.1 5.9 1.0 10.7 0.3 2.2

Emissions by consuming sector 46.5 0.3 1.4 5.3 1.5 10.1 2.7 5.0 <0.1 4.5 2.3 6.9 3.7 1.4 0.3 0.6 0.6

The largest difference is found in the category "fuel and utilities". Consumption-based emissions here exclude emissions associated with the direct use (purchase) of fuels and utilities, except for water and wastewater. The life-cycle emissions associated with the consumption of water and wastewater services are 0.3 million MTCO2e. However, in the course of purchasing clothing, electronics, furnishings, etc., significant emissions occur from the resulting use of natural gas and production of electricity. These emissions are included in the estimate of 10.7 million MTCO2e. Transportation services are another category where emissions are higher when organized by producing sectors rather than consumed commodities. This is because the providers of transportation services are providing for the movement of freight which, when it occurs upstream of the final producer, is assigned to the various non-transportation consuming sectors in Tables 3.1 3.9 and the last column of Table 3.10. Conversely, sometimes emissions are higher when organized by consumed commodity than by producing sector. Food and beverages is one example of this. The direct emissions from the food and beverage industries associated with satisfying all consumption by Oregonians - both direct consumption of food and also indirect (supply chain) consumption - is roughly 6.1 million MTCO2e. However, given the extensive supply chain emissions associated with food production, the pre-purchase life cycle emissions associated with direct consumption of food and beverages by Oregon consumers is higher - roughly 10.1 million MTCO2e.
This includes fuels, electric power and water/wastewater. Emissions associated with direct consumption of fuels and electric power are not included in this table, which reports three-phase "pre-purchase" emissions only. 49
35

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

CHAPTER FOUR: Expanded transportation sector emissions inventory


1. Inventory overview

In 2010, the Oregon Legislature adopted a number of requirements relating to planning for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector. 36 Among those was a requirement unique to the transportation sector that a statewide strategy be developed to aid in achieving the greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals set forth in ORS 468A.205. The Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) worked extensively with transportation stakeholders including state, regional and local governments, other state agencies, business, and advocacy groups to develop a vision of what it will take to substantially reduce transportation sector emissions and to identify promising strategies for moving forward to meet that vision. The first phase of the strategy development process was completed on March 20, 2013 with the acceptance of the Oregon Statewide Transportation Strategy: A 2050 Vision for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction 37(STS) by the Oregon Transportation Commission. The first phase includes strategies designed to reduce emissions and the vision for a future Oregon with substantially less emissions than today. Additional phases include development and execution of a STS implementation plan, and continued monitoring and adjustment of the STS as needed. In order to develop the STS vision and strategies, ODOT staff worked with staff from the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality and the Oregon Department of Energy, and consultants to estimate past and present transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions and to evaluate emissions reductions that might be achieved in the future. New analytical tools, including ODOTs GreenSTEP 38 model, were developed to quantify and model greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector and to estimate the effects of a number of potential future changes to the transportation system including: Vehicle and Engine Technology Advancements (e.g. improvements to fuel economy, electric vehicles) Fuel Technology Advancements (e.g. biofuels, natural gas) Enhanced System and Operations Performance (e.g. adaptive traffic control, speed smoothing) Transportation Options (e.g. carsharing, public transportation) Efficient Land Use (e.g. compact mixed-use development, freight consolidation centers) Pricing and Funding Mechanisms (e.g. carbon pricing, pay-as-you-drive insurance)

The STS analysis of greenhouse gas emissions divided the transportation sector into three travel market segments as follows: 1. Ground Passenger and Commercial Service Vehicle Travel: This market segment includes passenger travel by light duty vehicles (automobiles, sport utility vehicles, vans, pickup-trucks), buses, and trains. Walking and bicycling are also included as alternatives although these modes do not produce greenhouse gas emissions. Commercial use of light-duty vehicles for service calls, deliveries, etc. is also included in this category. 2. Freight: This market segment includes the movement of goods by all modes of transportation other than light duty vehicles (e.g. heavy trucks, railroads, ships, airplanes, pipelines).
Chapter 85, Oregon Laws 2010, Special Session Oregon Department of Transportation, Oregon Statewide Transportation Strategy: A 2050 Vision for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction, Volume 1, March 2013. 38 GreenSTEP (Greenhouse gas Strategic Transportation Energy Planning) is a peer-reviewed model which calculates energy consumption and GHG emissions from light duty vehicles in response to a large number of vehicle, fuel, economic, demographic land use and other inputs. http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/TD/TP/Pages/GreenSTEP.aspx
37 36

50

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

3. Air Passenger: This market segment includes all commercial air travel, including aircraft, and ground access and support equipment at airports. The approach taken in the STS to inventorying transportation emissions and assessing potential future outcomes was a departure from past practices regarding the estimation of other transportation emissions. In the case of criteria air pollutants, the practice and requirements are to estimate emissions for areas in which the emissions exceed standards and are causing harm; for example within the air quality management area of a metropolitan area. Generally, the adverse effects of the emissions occur primarily in the area where the emissions occur. But greenhouse gasses are different. Their effects are global, regardless of where they are emitted. It does not matter whether a person drives within the metropolitan area where they live, or whether they drive to another city or state. The effects on global warming and climate change are the same. For this reason, the STS analysis used a household approach to assessing emissions from passenger travel. Estimates were made of the emissions resulting from the travel of Oregon households regardless of where they travel (in-state or out-of-state). Conversely, the emissions of the residents of other states were not assessed, even if those emissions occurred or are projected to occur within Oregons boundaries. An analogous, borderless, approach was used for the assessment of freight greenhouse gas emissions. Those emissions were estimated for the movement of goods transported to Oregon from wherever they are produced, whether in the state, in other states, or other countries. This approach provides a more holistic view of freight emissions that is consistent with how passenger travel emissions are considered. In the case of passenger travel, emissions are a function of choices about where and how far to travel as well as by what mode to travel (e.g. car, bus, bicycle) and the emissions characteristics of the modes used. Likewise, freight emissions are a function of choices about what goods to purchase, where goods are purchased from (how far they are shipped) as well as by the mode and the emissions characteristics of the modes used. As with passenger travel, this approach enables broader consideration of ways in which transportation emissions can be reduced. Transportation greenhouse gas emissions were assessed on a fuel lifecycle (i.e. well-to-wheels) basis for the STS. These include emissions from combusting fuels to power vehicles as well as the emissions from producing and transporting the fuels that are used, and the emissions to produce the electrical power used by electric vehicles including trains (e.g. light rail). The emissions assessments did not include emissions from building or maintaining transportation infrastructure or vehicles. The STS approach to estimating transportation sector emissions is described in more detail in Appendix C. The STS approach to estimating transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions was developed in order to facilitate the planning process for meeting the legislative mandate for developing a transportation sector strategy for reducing emissions. This analytical approach helped to identify strategies that significantly reduce GHG emissions and that are most compatible with other statewide policies. Overall the methodological approach is different than the In-Boundary approach described in Chapter 2 and the Consumption-Based approach described in Chapter 3 of this document. Table 1.1 shows the differences in the approaches. It should be noted that the focus of the STS was on describing a vision of the future transportation system that could plausibly achieve the large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions established by Oregon statutory goals, and identifying potential strategies for achieving that vision. Therefore the analysis focused on looking forward and testing the potential effects of various changes to the transportation system in order to judge the relative merits of different strategies for reducing transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions. Although estimates were made of present and past emissions, this was for the purpose of setting reference values for comparing the relative effects of different strategies on transportation emissions. The information provided by the STS analysis is useful to a greenhouse gas
51

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

inventory report mostly to provide perspectives on the factors affecting transportation sector emissions and the relative magnitude of their effects. The information is less valuable for establishing absolute inventory amounts that are comparable to other inventories or that establish values to be used in performance measurement. Figure 4.1 shows the estimated emissions values by travel market segment for 1990 (base year for statutory goal) and 2010 (model year), as well as the projected values for 2050 (target year for statutory goal) under current trends (business as usual). Results are also shown for full implementation of the STS Vision by the year 2050. Additionally, the emission profile is shown for proportional reductions in each travel market segment that would be needed to individually meet the 2050 goal of reducing emissions by 75 percent below 1990 levels.
Figure 4.1 39 Transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions trends, past and projected 35 30 Million MTCO2e 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 2010 2050 Current Trends Freight 2050 STS Vision 2050 Goal

Ground Pass. & Comm. Serv.

Air Passenger

Table 4.1 shows the corresponding values for 2010 along with the market segment percentages of total transportation emissions, and estimated percentage changes in emissions by market segment.
Table 4.1 Annual 2010 greenhouse gas emissions by transportation market segment, percentage by market segment, and percentage change from 1990

Ground Pass. & Comm. Svc. Million MTCO2e Percentage Change from 1990
16.3 52% +10%

Freight
11.7 37% +54%

Air Passenger
3.2 10% +97%

Total
31.2 100% +30%

Oregon Department of Transportation, Oregon Statewide Transportation Strategy: A 2050 Vision for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction (Volume1), March 2013. 52

39

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

The figure and table, illustrate several significant trends. First, emissions from the freight and air passenger market segments grew at higher rates than emissions from the ground passenger and commercial services market. Freight emissions grew by over 50 percent from 1990 to 2010 and air passenger emissions almost doubled while ground passenger and commercial services emissions grew by about 10 percent. Second, the faster growth of freight and air passenger emissions resulted in a declining share of emissions from the ground passenger and commercial services market segment which is expected to continue to decline in the future. The split in greenhouse gas emissions among travel markets differs from national values reported by the EPA. According to the EPA, light duty vehicles, motorcycles, and buses (most of the ground passenger and commercial services market segment) produced 64 percent of emissions, freight transportation (excluding air freight) produced 29 percent of emissions, and air transportation produced 7 percent of emissions in 2010. 40 The EPA and STS values do not match because of differences in inventory methods, the way emissions were counted, and the characteristics of transportation in Oregon and the U.S. The EPA calculates transportation emissions from the amounts of fuel consumed by mode. In contrast, the STS-based analysis calculated emissions using the models that were developed in order to test various prospective policies for reducing transportation sector emissions (described below). These models computed amounts of travel by mode and emissions rates per mile of travel. These values were then used to compute emissions. The EPA and STS estimates also differ in the scope of what is counted. The EPA estimates, following international reporting protocols, do not include emissions from international freight and passenger movements, whereas the STS inventory does include these emissions. The inclusion of international freight and passenger travel in the STS inventory increases the freight and air percentages of greenhouse gas emissions and decreases the ground passenger percentage relative to the EPA inventory. For example, according to the STS analysis, emissions from international freight movements bound for Oregon make up 8 percent of the total emissions from all freight bound for Oregon. Finally, the characteristics of Oregon freight transportation differ significantly from the national average in several ways. A higher percentage of Oregons emissions are from the freight market because: 1. More tonnage per capita is shipped than the national average; 2. The states location and relatively large size results in longer than average freight shipping distances; and, 3. Average greenhouse gas emission rates (per ton-mile) are higher because truck travel dominates shipments within the state and is a majority for shipments from other Western states. The light-duty vehicle share of emissions has diminished over the past two decades and the STS predicts that the share will continue to decline. This is a result of several trends. First, the significant historic growth of light-duty vehicle miles traveled (VMT) has peaked as a result of the saturation of vehicle ownership and the aging of the baby boomer generation. In Oregon, urban growth containment and the development of more compact communities contributed as well by helping to reduce average vehicle trip lengths and increase the practicality of traveling in other ways. It is anticipated that continuation of these trends and the expansion of transportation alternatives will continue to reduce per capita VMT. The freight and air travel markets have not saturated and these markets mostly operate at larger geographic scales that are relatively unaffected by land use. Second, the STS vision anticipates that the efficiency of
40

Fast Facts, U.S. Transportation Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 1990-2010, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Transportation and Air Quality, EPA-420-F-12-063, December 2012, http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/documents/420f12063.pdf

53

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

light-duty vehicles will substantially improve as they shift to plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, fully electric vehicles, or other alternatives such as fuel cell vehicles, and as emissions from electrical power generation are reduced. Reducing the vehicle weights will also increase light-duty vehicle efficiency. The prospects for increasing the energy efficiency of freight transportation the same amount are not as promising because the vehicles are much larger, heavier and operate over longer distances. The relative ability of freight vehicles to gain efficiency by reducing weight is less because the unloaded vehicle weight is a smaller proportion of the loaded vehicle weight. The potential for using electricity is much less (except for smaller short distance delivery vehicles) because of the relatively low energy density of batteries and other means of storing electricity. Rail freight could be electrified, but is already relatively efficient, producing less than one tenth the emissions of trucking per ton-mile. Long-haul trucking produces over 75 percent of the freight emissions. While there are significant potentials for reducing trucking emissions by using cleaner fuels such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) and shifting some cargo movements to freight modes that emit fewer emissions, it is not likely that trucking could achieve the same proportional reductions in emissions as could be achieved in the ground passenger and commercial service vehicle market segment. 2. Ground passenger and commercial service vehicle travel

The Ground Passenger and Commercial Services transportation market segment includes passenger travel using light duty vehicles (e.g., automobiles, pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles, vans) and commercial service travel using light duty vehicles. It also includes travel by modes that provide alternatives to light duty vehicles, such as public transportation, bicycling (and other light weight vehicles), and walking. Ground passenger and commercial service vehicle emissions were estimated using the GreenSTEP model. This model was developed by ODOT for the specific purpose of forecasting the effects of various policies and other influences on the amount of vehicle travel, the types of vehicles and fuels used, and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Work on GreenSTEP started in 2008 as a result of an inquiry by the Oregon Global Warming Commission into the availability of models that could be used to provide information support for transportation planning decisions aimed at reducing emissions. ODOT modelers made a decision to develop GreenSTEP because other transportation models could not address the scope of relevant factors and could not be readily adapted to do so. The development of GreenSTEP was reviewed extensively by state, national and international travel and emissions modeling experts in multiple venues. Evaluation at the national level lead to the Federal Highway Administration adopting GreenSTEP as the basis for their Energy and Emissions Reduction Policy Analysis Tool.41 The GreenSTEP model estimates vehicle ownership, vehicle travel, fuel consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions at the individual household level. This structure was chosen to account for the synergistic or antagonistic effects of multiple policies and factors (e.g. gas prices) on vehicle travel and emissions. For example, because a household residing in a more compact mixed-use neighborhood will tend to drive fewer miles each day, a higher percentage of their driving would be powered by electricity if they use a plug-in hybrid-electric vehicle. Modeling at this level makes it possible to evaluate the relationships between emissions and the characteristics of households, land use, transportation systems, vehicles, and other factors of interest. In addition, household level analysis makes it possible to evaluate the equitability of the costs and benefits of different emission reduction strategies. Table 4.2 shows the emissions from the three most significant components of this market segment. Overall greenhouse gas emissions increased by about 9 percent from 1990 to 2010. Household travel

41

http://www.planning.dot.gov/FHWA_tool/

54

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

using light-duty vehicles produced the majority of emissions of this market segment, almost 90 percent. Emissions from urban public transportation were a very small fraction of the total.
Table 4.2 Estimates of annual ground passenger and commercial services market segment emissions (Million MTCO2e)

Year 1990 2010

Household Light-Duty Vehicles


13.1 14.3

Commercial Light-Duty Vehicles


1.6 1.8

Urban Public Transit


0.1 0.2

Total
14.8 16.3

Household light-duty vehicle emissions are affected by the growth in population and by the light-duty greenhouse gas emissions of each person. The relative changes in these quantities affect the relative change in total light-duty vehicle emissions. Figure 4.2 compares changes in these quantities from 1990 to 2010. While per capita emissions were declining over the period, total population was increasing. Declines in per capita emissions were not sufficient to overcome population increases until after 2005. Then a large decrease in per capita emissions exceeded the more modest population increase to result in a net decrease in emissions from household vehicle travel.
Figure 4.2 Changes in population, per capita household light-duty vehicle emissions, and total emissions 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Population 1990-1995 Per capita emissions 2000-2005 Emissions 2005-2010 1995-2000

The observed declines in per capita light vehicle emissions are affected by changes in household VMT and by changes in vehicle emissions rates. Figure 4.3 shows how these quantities have changed over the period. Although per capita emissions decreased over the entire period, changes in travel and changes in vehicle emissions rates acted in opposite directions over most of the period. Prior to 2000, per capita VMT increased, but was more than offset by decreases in vehicle emissions rates. After 2005, large decreases in per capita VMT offset small increases in emissions rates. More modest decreases in per capita emissions occurred between 2000 and 2005 as a consequence of small declines in both per capita VMT and CO2e per mile.

55

Percentage change

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Figure 4.3 Changes in per capita VMT, emissions per VMT, and per capita emissions 6% 4% Percentage change 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Per capita VMT 1990-1995 Emmissions per VMT Per capita emissions 2000-2005 2005-2010 1995-2000

The Great Recession, which had officially started in December of 2007 and officially ended in June of 2009, was undoubtedly a leading cause of the sharp downturn in per capita VMT in the period between 2005 and 2010 since household employment and income have a substantial effect on household vehicle travel. The recession greatly increased unemployment, which more than doubled in Oregon from a low of about 5 percent in 2007 to a high of almost 12 percent in 2009. Although the recession officially ended in 2009, the unemployment rate in 2013 is several percentage points above the pre-recession rate. Figure 4.4 shows how average per capita VMT rises with income and how per capita VMT decreased after 2000 across all income groups. It should be noted, that the values shown in Figure 4.4 are based on model outputs, and are not direct measures of per capita VMT by income group. Annual estimates of per capita VMT by income are not available, so these changes must be inferred using models of the relationships between household income and other factors which affect household VMT. This is what the GreenSTEP model does. Figure 4.4 shows a similar pattern of changes in per capita VMT across all income groups with some notable differences. First, the decline in VMT from 2000 to 2010 was, in percentage terms, greater for lower income households than for higher income households. This is understandable since lower income households are affected more by bad economic times and because their budgets are more constrained. The second difference is that while per capita VMT rose on average for lower income households between 1990 and 1995 it decreased for higher income households. This may have been the consequence of how incomes and changes in VMT vary across the state. Incomes are higher on average in metropolitan areas of the state (particularly the Portland metropolitan area) than in other areas and per capita VMT in metropolitan areas changed very little from 1990 to 1995 compared to other areas of the state.

56

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories Figure 4.4 Average daily per person light-duty vehicle travel by annual household income 35 Average daily VMT per person 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0to20K 20Kto40K 40Kto60K 60Kto80K Income group 1995 2000 2005 80Kto100K 100KPlus

1990

2010

Figure 4.5 shows trends in per capita VMT by location type (metropolitan, other urban, and rural).42 Per capita VMT is higher in less dense and more rural parts of the state because of longer distances between places and fewer available alternatives to driving. The increase in per capita VMT from 1990 to 2000 was more pronounced in rural areas, but the declining trends in per capita VMT after 2000 were similar for all areas.
Figure 4.5 Average daily per person light-duty vehicle travel by location 30 Average Daily VMT Per Capita 25 20 15 10 5 0 Metropolitan 1990 1995 Other urban 2000 2005 2010 Rural

Metropolitan areas include areas within the urban growth boundaries of Census-designated urbanized metropolitan areas. Other urban areas are areas within the urban growth boundaries of cities that are not metropolitan. Rural areas include all other areas. 57

42

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

3.

Freight

The Freight travel market considers the movement of goods by all transportation modes (i.e. road, air, rail, water and pipeline) using vehicles greater than 10,000 pounds gross vehicle weight (GVW) or pipelines. The approach taken in the STS for analyzing and identifying options for mitigation of freight emissions was different than the in-boundary approach (Chapter 2) and the consumption-based approach (Chapter 3). The approach is similar to that taken for passenger travel emissions where all travel of Oregonians is considered, regardless of whether the travel occurs in Oregon. In the case of freight emissions, the approach is to tabulate the emissions to transport unfinished and finished goods to people and businesses in Oregon regardless of where the goods come from. Although this approach may appear to be the same as the consumption-based inventory approach, there are some key differences. Table 1.1 summarizes these differences and Chapter 3 provides a more detailed explanation on how freight transportation emissions are addressed by the consumption-based approach. The STS inventory approach was made possible by the U.S. Department of Transportations Freight Analysis Framework version 3 (FAF3) database. 43 The FAF3 database provides year 2007 estimates of commodity flows by tonnage, value, origin region, destination region, commodity type, and transportation mode. The database includes estimates of international flows to and from regions of the U.S. as well as domestic flows. The FAF3 database was used to tabulate the values, weights and distances of all commodities shipped to Oregon. Greenhouse gas emissions were calculated from the weights and distances that commodities were shipped as well as the average emissions rates by mode. Greenhouse gas emissions rates (grams CO2e per ton-mile) vary widely among the different freight modes. Table 4.3 compares the average rates for the freight mode categories included in the FAF3 database. It can be seen that the rates fall into three groupings. Rail, water, and pipeline emissions rates are all relatively low; in the range of 24 to 35 grams CO2e per ton-mile. The average truck emission rate is about 10 times higher. The same is true for the multiple modes and mail and other mode categories which are most similar to the truck mode in their distance and commodity value characteristics. Air transportation has the highest average emission rate; over four times higher than the truck rate.
Table 4.3 Greenhouse gas emission rates by freight mode 44 (grams CO2e per ton-mile)

Freight mode Truck Rail Water Air Multiple modes & mail Pipeline Other

Average emission rate


313 28 24 1,472 324 35 313

Mode emission rate category


Medium Low Low High Medium Low Medium

U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Freight Analysis Framework, http://www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/faf/ 44 Emissions rates for truck, rail, water, air and pipeline from Table 2.1 in Cambridge Systematics, Freight and Climate Change: Background Paper for the Oregon Freight Plan, June 2010 (http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/TD/TP/docs/ofp/freightclimate.pdf). Emissions rates for multiple modes & mail and other estimated from evaluation of FAF3 data regarding the similarity of commodity values and distances shipped by these modes to the other modes. 58

43

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Table 4.4 shows that the shipment of freight within Oregon produces a relatively small portion of total freight greenhouse gas emissions (27 percent). A large majority of the emissions come from the shipment of goods to the state from outside its boundaries. This is the case despite the fact that almost threequarters of the goods (71 percent of the weight) are shipped from origins in Oregon to destinations in Oregon. Although more goods are shipped within the state than to the state, the distances that goods are shipped from places outside the state are many times greater than the distances shipped within the state. This results in many fewer ton-miles of freight shipments within the state than to the state from other regions. Although 71 percent of the freight tonnage is shipped within the state, this only accounts for 12 percent of the ton-miles of freight shipments to destinations in Oregon. This is a key reason why a large majority of Oregons freight GHG emissions come from the shipment of goods from out of state, because the total amount of emissions depends on the distances that goods are shipped as well as the weight of goods shipped.
Table 4.4 Percentage of commodity value, tons and ton-miles shipped and emissions from shipping goods to Oregon by originating region (2007)

Originating Region Oregon Western US Other US Non US Total

Value 47% 23% 22% 8% 100%

Tons 71% 15% 10% 5% 100%

Ton-Miles 12% 12% 37% 39% 100%

CO2e 27% 21% 34% 18% 100%

The Ton-Miles and CO2e columns of Table 4.4 show that there is more to freight greenhouse gas emissions than the ton-miles of cargo moved. The percentage of emissions produced by shipping goods within Oregon is over two times greater than the percentage of ton miles. Similarly, the percentage of emissions produced by shipping goods to Oregon from other western states is 75 percent greater than the ton-mileage. On the other hand, the percentage of emissions produced by shipping goods to Oregon from places outside the U.S. is less than half the ton mileage. The reason for this difference has to do with how the mix of transportation modes used to transport goods to Oregon varies with distance and the type of cargo shipped. Table 4.5 shows the percentages of ton-miles of goods shipped to Oregon by mode emission rate category (Table 4.1) for each region of origin. Freight transportation from more distant locations relies more heavily on lower emission modes (rail, water, pipeline); 85 percent in the case of goods transported from origins outside of the U.S. Freight transportation within Oregon or to Oregon from nearby states is dominated by medium emission modes (i.e. trucks). Overall, about 60 percent of the ton-mileage of freight movement is carried out by relatively low emitting modes and 40 percent is carried out by medium emitting modes. Freight movement by high emission modes (i.e. airplanes) represents a tiny fraction of the total ton mileage.
Table 4.5 Percentage of ton-miles shipped to Oregon destinations by mode emissions rate category for each originating region (2007)

Originating Region Oregon Western US Other US Non US Total

Low 1% 24% 66% 85% 60%

Medium 99% 76% 34% 15% 40%

High 0% <1% <1% <1% <1%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

59

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

4.

Air Passenger

The Air Passenger travel market refers to commercial air passenger travel, including aircraft, ground access and support equipment. The STS approach to inventorying air passenger travel emissions is much like the approach to inventorying ground passenger travel emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions are estimated for the plane trips of Oregonians, regardless of where they travel. This approach, while consistent with the approaches for the other transportation market segments, is different than the standard approach for accounting for air passenger emissions. The standard approach is to estimate emissions based on the usage of aviation fuels. That approach, when applied to airports in the state, includes the emissions from all air passenger travel which departs from the states airports, whether of Oregonians or others. It excludes the emissions of Oregonians traveling home from other places. Amounts of air passenger travel were estimated using a model of air passenger trip-making and recorded flight distances. The number of air passenger trips was estimated from a model developed using national long-distance travel survey data from the 2001 National Household Travel Survey. 45 This model forecasts numbers of trips in two distance categories (long-haul, short-haul) and two purpose categories (business, leisure). The model was calibrated using 2009 passenger survey data from the Port of Portland 46 and 2009 Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B) database from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. 47 After calibration, it was validated using year 2000 data from the DB1B database. Passenger trip distances were summarized from the DB1B database. Together, these estimates were used to estimate short haul and long haul air passenger miles of travel. Short haul and long haul air passenger miles traveled were tabulated separately because the emissions rates are different for those trips and the potential policy actions may be different as well. Short-haul air trips (e.g. Portland to Seattle) produce more greenhouse gas emissions per passenger mile because taxi, take-off, and climb are a larger proportion of the total trip emissions, and the aircraft type, often regional jets, are less efficient per passenger mile. Table 4.6 shows average emissions rates per passenger mile for the year 2010.
Table 4.6 48 Average 2010 emission rates for short-haul and long-haul air passenger travel

Trip Length Type Short Haul Long Haul

Kilograms CO2e per Passenger Mile 0.2477 0.1818

Greenhouse gas emissions also occur as a result of ground-based airport operations. These include: Surface Traffic, which includes ground access vehicles, such as vehicles related to passenger, employee, service and cargo delivery activities); and

45 U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 2001 National Household Travel Survey, http://nhts.ornl.gov/publications.shtml 46 The survey by Aviation Research at Port of Portland to departing passengers in the terminal building shows that 43.5% passengers lived in Oregon in 2009. The total passengers were 6,472,267 enplanements including transfers. The U.S. DOT DB1B database shows that 5,082,320 passengers traveled from Portland International Airport (PDX), not including transfers. So the percentage of Oregonians is (6,472,267 43.5%) / 5,082,320, equal to 55%. 47 U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Data Profile: Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B), http://www.transtats.bts.gov/DatabaseInfo.asp?DB_ID=125&DB_Name=Airline%20Origin%20and%20Destination%20Survey% 20(DB1B) 48 Oregon Department of Transportation, Oregon Statewide Transportation Strategy: A 2050 Vision for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction, Volume 2, Technical Appendices, December 2012, Table 16.

60

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Ground Support (including all operations, service and maintenance vehicles on the air-side of the gate). A kilogram-per passenger-trip (kg/passenger-trip) emission rate was calculated based on the 2009 greenhouse gas emissions inventory from the Port of Portland Aviation Division and passenger trip information from Portland International Airport for the same inventory year. Table 4.7 shows estimated air passenger emissions for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010 by type of emission. Figure 4.6 shows that aircraft emissions comprise over 90 percent of total air passenger emissions. Aircraft emissions also contributed the most to the substantial growth in air passenger emissions from 1990 to 2010.
Table 4.7 49 Estimated air passenger emissions by source type: 1990-2010 (Million MTCO2e)

Year 1990 2000 2010

Aircraft Emissions 1.48 2.71 3.00

Surface Traffic 0.15 0.18 0.21

Ground Support 0.02 0.02 0.03

Total 1.65 2.91 3.25

Figure 4.6 Percentage of air passenger emissions by source type (2010)

1% 6%

93%

Aircraft

Surface traffic

Ground support

Oregon Department of Transportation, Oregon Statewide Transportation Strategy: A 2050 Vision for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction, Volume 2, Technical Appendices, December 2012, Table 20. 61

49

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

CHAPTER FIVE: Comparison of the emissions inventories


Each inventory in the preceding chapters accounts for a different set of emissions, portraying different ways in which Oregon contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. This chapter compares and contrasts the three inventories and attempts to show how they are complementary and can be combined. Readers are reminded that Chapter 1 discusses the benefits offered by multiple inventories and provides an overview of each inventory approach and what it includes. 1. Comparing In-Boundary and Consumption-Based Emissions

The in-boundary and consumption-based inventories both estimate emissions for multiple sectors not only transportation, but also industry, residential, commercial, and agriculture. The in-boundary inventory accounts for all emissions that physically originate within Oregons borders, then takes out emissions from in-state power generation and adds regional (in-state and outside Oregon) emissions associated with generating electricity that is used in Oregon. The consumption-based inventory includes the global emissions involved in satisfying consumption by Oregon households, government, and business inventory/capital formation; emissions in Oregon are included only if they are part of satisfying Oregon consumption, while all other in-state emissions (associated with exported goods and services) are excluded.

In-boundary emissions for 2010 were 62.8 million MTCO2e. Consumption-based emissions were higher, at 74.7 million MTCO2e. However, between them, the two inventories account for a much larger amount approximately 102.9 million MTCO2e, as illustrated in Figure 5.1.
Figure 5.1 Comparison of the in-boundary and consumption-based inventories (2010)

Figure 5.1 shows that the two inventories share much in common approximately 34.5 million MTCO2e in each inventory represent the same emissions. These include emissions from household use of fuels and electricity, as well as in-state production of goods and services that are purchased by Oregon households and governments. However, both inventories also have emissions that are unique to each perspective.

62

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

The in-boundary inventory includes 28.2 million MTCO2e that are not in the consumption-based inventory. This is primarily the in-state emissions (plus emissions from electricity use) associated with production of commercial, industrial, and agricultural goods and services that are exported. 50 The consumption-based inventory includes 40.2 million MTCO2e that are not in the in-boundary inventory. These emissions occur in other states and nations producing goods and services that are consumed or are part of supply chains of goods and services consumed by Oregon households and government, as well as business capital formation. These emissions also include the out-of-state fuel cycle (pre-combustion or well-to-pump) emissions associated with producing purchased electricity and fuels. Comparing Transportation-Related Emissions

2.

All three inventories provide detailed information on emissions associated with transportation. While there is considerable overlap, each inventory counts a different set of emissions: The in-boundary inventory estimates the emissions from combustion (e.g., tailpipe emissions) of onroad, off-road, and non-road vehicle fuels sold in Oregon, along with smaller emissions associated with refrigerants used for freight and air conditioning systems. Of the four major sectors in this inventory (transportation, residential/commercial, industry, agriculture), transportation is the largest, contributing 22.6 million MTCO2e in 2010. The consumption-based inventory estimates transportation-related emissions (fuels, refrigerants, and lubricants) of 18.5 million MTCO2e in 2010, divided between emissions associated with vehicle use by Oregon households and governments (12.6 million MTCO2e), and the emissions from transportation-related businesses (trucking, air, rail, etc.) satisfying consumption by Oregonians (5.9 million MTCO2e). This latter number includes both direct transportation of people (e.g., air travel for pleasure) as well as the movement of freight. Unlike the in-boundary inventory, the consumption-based inventorys treatment of transportation-related emissions is global in scope and estimates the full life-cycle of fuels (also called well to wheel emissions). The consumption-based inventory does not include the emissions associated with travel in Oregon by non-Oregonians (e.g., tourists, business travel, and out-of-state commuters), nor does it include the emissions associated with in-bound or out-bound transport of freight that ultimately does not satisfy consumption by Oregonians. It also does not include the emissions associated with in-bound or out-bound business air travel, unless such travel serves final consumption by Oregonians. The expanded transportation sector inventory captures the most transportation-related emissions: 31.2 million MTCO2e in 2010, divided between the three market segments of ground passenger travel for households, businesses, and government (16.3 million MTCO2e), in-bound freight (11.7 million MTCO2e), and air passenger travel (3.2 million MTCO2e). Like the consumption-based inventory, these emissions include the full life cycle of fuels and follows the emissions from Oregonians even when they travel out-of-state. However, the expanded transportation inventory follows both households and businesses, while the consumption-based inventory excludes most business travel. Calculating a grand total of emissions

3.

Figure 5.1 above estimated the total of emissions represented in both the in-boundary and consumptionbased inventory. An estimate of the grand total across all three inventories has not yet been developed.
50 Some goods and services are exported from Oregon for use as intermediate components of goods and services that are ultimately sold back to Oregon consumers. In these cases, emissions are included in both the in-boundary and consumption-based inventories.

63

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Additional effort would be required to estimate the overlap and unique additional emissions included in the expanded transportation-sector inventory. It is likely that most, although not all, of the emissions in that inventorys ground passenger travel sector (16.3 million MTCO2e) are already included in the inboundary and/or consumption-based inventories, as are some of the emissions from air passenger travel (3.2 million MTCO2e). However, many of the emissions associated with in-bound freight (11.7 million MTCO2e) are probably unique to the expanded transportation sector inventory. In addition, the other two inventories also include some transportation emissions that are not covered by the expanded transportation sector inventory. For example, the in-boundary inventory includes emissions associated with in-state fuel purchases by visitors, business travelers, and pass-through travelers, including passthrough freight. And the consumption-based inventory includes freight-related emissions further up the supply chain (e.g., the emissions from transporting Chinese steel to a Korean auto manufacturer). 4. Change in emissions over time

The three inventories show different changes in emissions over time, and direct comparison of the three inventories is constrained because of differences in temporal coverage. The in-boundary inventory is the most temporally detailed, providing an estimate of emissions for every calendar year between 1990 and 2010. The expanded transportation sector inventory covers the same time period, but only estimates emissions for every fifth year (1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010) for the ground passenger and commercial service travel market segment. Freight emissions were only estimated for 1990 and 2010 while air passenger emissions were estimated for 1990, 2000, and 2010. The consumption-based inventory has the least coverage, with emissions estimates for only two years: 2005 and 2010. Between 1990 and 2010 the in-boundary inventory shows an overall increase from 56.2 to 62.8 million MTCO2e. Emissions increased most years in the 1990s, peaking at 71.9 million MTCO2e in 1999. Emissions decreased between 1999 and 2003, increased again from 2003 to 2005, and began declining after 2007. Between 1990 and 2010 the expanded transportation inventory also shows an overall increase, from 24.0 to 31.3 million MTCO2e. The ground passenger and commercial service travel market segment produces the greatest proportion of transportation emissions (52 percent) but its share has been decreasing due to relatively slower emissions growth. Due to population growth, emissions from this market segment increased from 1990 to 2005 despite steady decreases in per capita emissions. After 2005, a large drop in per capita vehicle miles traveled more than offset population growth and resulted in a significant decline in ground passenger emissions. The freight market segment produces the next largest share of transportation sector emissions (37 percent) but freight emissions grew substantially from 1990 to 2010 (57 percent). Just over a quarter of the freight emissions (27 percent) are due to the shipment of goods from origins to destinations in Oregon. The remainder comes from the shipment of goods to Oregon from other places in the U.S. and around the world. The air passenger market segment produces the smallest share of emissions (10 percent) but emissions from that market segment have almost doubled since 1990. Over 90 percent of the air passenger emissions come from aircraft operations, while the remainder comes from ground operations. Estimating changes in emissions between 2005 and 2010 is more complex with the addition of the consumption-based inventory. In-boundary emissions fell eight percent, or 5.5 million MTCO2e, from 68.3 to 62.8 million MTCO2e. At the same time, consumption-based emissions were essentially unchanged, measuring only a 0.1 percent decrease (0.1 million MTCO2e, a change from 74.8 to 74.7 million MTCO2e). Emissions from the consumption of electricity and fuels (which are covered in both inventories) fell, while emissions from the consumption of services (which are only partially included in the in-boundary inventory) increased.

64

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

5.

Conclusion

It is worth repeating that no single inventory tells the full story of how Oregon contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions, and no single inventory method is necessarily the "right" method for all contexts. Ultimately, greenhouse gas inventories are intended to inform actions to reduce our contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. All three inventories help identify emission reduction opportunities for Oregon residents, businesses, government agencies and policymakers. Opportunities to reduce emissions are identified in other documents. These include the Global Warming Commissions Interim Roadmap to 2020, Governor Kitzhabers 10-Year Energy Action Plan, the Transportation Commissions Statewide Transportation Strategy and the Environmental Quality Commissions Materials Management 2050 Vision and Framework for Action. DEQ, ODOE, and ODOT plan to update the in-boundary, consumption-based, and expanded transportation inventories, as resources permit, in order to track changes in how Oregon contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions and to identify opportunities to reduce these emissions.

65

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Appendix A: Data sources for the in-boundary inventory


Included in separate document

66

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Appendix B: Methodology for the consumption-based inventory


Included in separate document

67

Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010: In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

Appendix C: STS approach to estimating transportation emissions


Included in separate document (will be added after original publication of this report)

68