DETERMINATION OF EFFECTIVE SERVICE ESTABLISHING A WATER

FLOW CONTROL SYSTEM

VALENTIN STEGROIU
University "Titu Maiorescu" of Bucharest
CARINA-ELENA STEGROIU, CONSTANA ENEA
University Constantin Brancusi of Targu Jiu, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration
Abstract:
Rivers and streams in Romania, due to the specific geography, systematically create, in time, the most diverse
problems.
Rivers during certain periods of time - defrosting, massive atmospheric deposits, in times of recrudescence and
of the return-generating phenomena that generate vulnerabilities of all kinds: territorial, social, ecological, economic, -
have their specificity. In other words, we find two rivers "identical", but all have a "something" in common: the need to
regulate the water flow in the river to avoid, exclusion phenomena of loss of material, financial, human, etc..
The problem of the recrudescence that generates vulnerabilities of all kinds can not be solved by "victims" of
these processes. In the formulation of the problem we must set the following principle: the river is divided into
"segments", each "segment" must bear all floods in excess of normal water in the following segment, "splitting" the
river "segments" starting from upstream to downstream , each "segment of the river" must bear all the "burden"
additional water number "segments" and excess water (above the river bed) are opposite dependence, "segmentation"
massively reduces the volume of river water that "accumulates" to flood segment.
In order to determine the efficiency function for organizing a system of water rate adjustment the
following are necessary: each criterion to take his place in the hierarchical set of all criteria, each criterion is
necessary to prescribe a certain weight. This can be achieved by processing expertise.
Proceedings in order to reduce recrudescence depend on a number of random factors. In this context
important is not only the share of the order but also the criteria, the number of each criterion considered
hierarchical. Ranking criteria must be performed by experts.
In this context it is necessary to formulate criteria to address the problem. Each "segment", depending
on a number of factors, will resolve the problem from its interests: economic, environmental, agricultural,
industrial, fisheries, cultural, etc..
We postulate 0 i n - numeric string consisting of rank criteria,
i
P - weight criterion i . The
question: to express the weight of criterion i numerical string parameters:
1; ; i n
.
The weight criterion i can be determined:
( )
1
1
1 1
i n n
i n i
P A P P P
n n

+

,
1, 2, ..., i n
(1)
Based on relations (1) we determine the weights i :
( )
( )
( )
( ) ( )
1 1
2 1
1
1
1 1 1
1 1
2 1 2
0 1 2 ... 1 1 1
1
1
1 1
n n
n
n n n
i
i
n n n
n
P A P P P
n n
n
P A P P P P
P A n n n
n
n n n
P A P P P
n n

+


+
+ + + + + +

L
( ) ( ) ( )
( )
( )
1 1
1
1
1 2 ... 2 1 0
1 2 1 1 2
n
n
n n P P P n
n n A A P P
n n n

_
+ + + + + + + +


,
A weighted sum equal to B , meaning:
( )
1
2
n
n
A P P B + where we get
1
2 1
n
B
A P
n P
_


,
(2)
Substitute equation (2) in (1):
( )
1 1 1 1
2 1 1 1 2
1 1 1 1
i n n
n
B i n i i B n i
P P P P P P P
n P n n n n n
_ _
+ +


, ,
(3)
If 1 B , then
1 1
1 2
1 1
i
i n i
P P P
n n n
_
+


,
,
1, 2, ..., i n
(4)
Example: We postulate 5 n , 4 experts to rank the five criteria by level of importance.
The weights of each class are:
1 1 1 1
1 1 2 5 1
5 1 5 5 1
P P P P
_
+


,
2 1 1 1 1 1
2 1 2 5 2 1 1 3 1 1
5 1 5 5 1 10 4 4 10 2
P P P P P P
_
+ + +


,
3 1 1 1 1
3 1 2 5 3 1 1 1 1
5 1 5 5 1 5 2 2 5
P P P P P
_
+ +


,
4 1 1 1 1 1
4 1 2 5 4 3 3 1 3 1
5 1 5 5 1 10 4 4 10 2
P P P P P P
_
+ +


,
5 1 1 1
5 1 2 5 5 2
5 1 5 5 1 5
P P P P
_
+


,
.
Weighted sum:
5
1 1 1 1
1
0,1 0,5 0, 2 0, 3 0, 5 0, 4 1
i
i
P P P P P

+ + + + +

Parameter A is restricted:
1
2
0
B
P
n
> , where
1
2B
P
n
< . If 1 B ; 5 n ; and
1
0, 3 P weights of the
criteria will be:
1
0, 3 P ;
2
0, 25 P ;
3
0, 2 P ;
4
0,15 P ;
5
0,1 P . To determine the ranking of each
criterion of the 5 reasons, elaborate table 1: the first column lists the criteria 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, in the following
columns (I, II, III, IV) criteria are included in the vision of each expert ranks (criterion 1 in view of experts is
on place 4, 5, 3, 1, criterion 2 - places 3, 4, 2, 2, etc.).
Determine the average weight of each criterion, rank criterion (Table 1). Weighted sum
0,175 0, 225 0,125 0, 25 0, 225 1 + + + + . According to experts, the first importance is criterion 4, the last -
criterion 3.
Table 1
Determination of criteria against rank B = 1
Expert I II III IV Average weight of the criterion Rank
Criterion criterion
1 4 5 3 1
4 5 3 1
0,15 0,1 0, 2 0, 3
0,1875
4 4
P P P P + + + + + +
IV
2 3 4 2 2
3 4 2 2
0, 2 0,15 0, 25 0, 25
0, 2125
4 4
P P P P + + + + + +
II sau III
3 2 3 5 5
2 3 5 5
0, 25 0, 2 0,1 0,1
0,1625
4 4
P P P P + + + + + +
V
4 1 2 4 3
1 2 4 3
0, 3 0, 25 0,15 0, 2
0, 225
4 4
P P P P + + + + + +
I
5 5 1 1 4
5 1 1 4
0,1 0, 3 0, 3 0,15
0, 2125
4 4
P P P P + + + + + +
II sau III
For 60 B weights are:
( )
1 1
120 1
1 1
i n
i n i
P P P P
n n n
_
+


,
,
1, 2, ..., i n
1
120
P
n
.
For 5 n criteria
1
120
24
5
P < ;
1
20 P
( )
1 1 1
1 1 5 1
24 20
5 1 5 1
P P P

+

( )
2 1 1
2 1 5 2
24 16
5 1 5 1
P P P

+

( )
3 1 1
3 1 5 3
24 12
5 1 5 1
P P P

+

( )
4 1 1
4 1 5 4
24 8
5 1 5 1
P P P

+

( )
5 1 1
5 1 5 5
24 4
5 1 5 1
P P P

+

determine the rank of each criterion (Table 2).
Table 2
Determination of criteria against rank B = 60
Expert
Criterion
I II III IV Average weight of the criterion
Rank
criterion
1 4 5 3 1
8 4 12 20
11
4
+ + +
IV
2 3 4 2 2
12 8 16 16
13
4
+ + +
II sau III
3 2 3 5 5
16 12 4 4
9
4
+ + +
V
4 1 2 4 3
20 16 8 12
14
4
+ + +
I
5 5 1 1 4
4 20 20 8
13
4
+ + +
II sau III
Parameter B arbitrary constant does not have an impact on ranking criteria, changing only the unit ,
relative ranks are maintained constant for different values .
A first conclusion we can draw is that the country's rivers are one of Romania's national treasures.
Overflowing rivers can generate losses of all kinds (if their rate is uncontrolled); it may contribute to the
creation of prerequisites for socio-economic development of those territories, adjacent rivers (if their rate is
controlled, adjusted). The river, usually, traverses areas with different characteristics, economic, ecological,
social. The river course adjustment problem can be solved, starting only from a single optimization criterion.
Optimization criteria must be appropriate to "segments" of the river in question. Criteria, as many generate
their problem by selecting their level of importance. In this case the problem is complicated: the issues to be
resolved related to various fields of humanity, the necessity of training experts in the field in the processes of
ordering criteria. Each expert shall establish its vector ordering criteria. Criterion-result can and should
include as components each expert opinion.
The idea of adjusting the river, as exposed above, translates into the river being divided into segments
and each segment of the river course has the obligation to "absorb" surplus water in such a way that water
during the next segment does not exceed permissible levels; "absorbing "water in one particular segment is
done by creating floodplains, storage of surplus water is done without raising embankments, dams, which in
time may become vulnerable and its done below river water levels in adjacent spaces; water from such tanks
may be used in various purposes, it becomes public property, flood plains are scheduled for such situations,
they are lacking in housing and other human activities incompatible with the flooding water areas and it
becomes a public good. In this context the question: how to determine the optimal size of the public good,
the volume of water stored in tanks in flood areas. River waters in artificial tanks are used by people in
adjacent villages. Reducing exacerbations, uncontrolled overflows of the river, destruction of all kinds, loss
of human life can be achieved with the efforts of rural population adjacent and government financial
supports. Moreover, the population and the government pay a heavy price after each exit to the river bed.
The total of these considerable amounts, gained in time-would have been sufficient to create reservoirs,
flooded areas (minimum loss) to create a system of river water flow regulation, to exclude uncontrolled
overflows of water to transform the destructive water resources in order to sustain useful, necessary human
activities in creating recreational areas. Efforts to regulate the river overflows must be submitted by local
administrative authorities, central government. Motivations for conducting activities by local government are
determined by wages, bonuses and other financial income thereof ( ) L , the number of electors "pro"
administration ( ) N . Interest in local government to solve the problem of regulating overflows can be
quantified by the utility function ( )
1 2
, U L N L N

(1), where
1 2
, , are parameters;

- coefficient
of proportionality;
1 2
, - elasticity of utility in relation with local government revenues, compared with an
increase of one percent of potential voters pro administration, meaning ( ) ( )
1
,
L
E U L N ;
( ) ( )
2
,
N
E U L N .
Local government financial incentives are in direct dependence to the amount of the public asset
(water) , created by various construction of water reservoirs, with that arrangement of territories, for likely
flooding, known risk areas, the difference between the cost of programs for creating reservoirs, floodplains
( )
0
C and actual cost ( )
1
C . These dependencies can be expressed by function
( )
2
1
0 1
L X C C

(2),
where

- proportionality coefficient ( ) ( ) ( ) 1 0 1
,
X
E L X C C
;
( )
( ) ( ) ( )
0 1
2 0 1
,
C C
E L X C C


.
Popularity among the population, the local government is in direct dependence with the creation of
public good, the level of honesty in the process of financing the work, meaning
( )
2
1
0 1
N X C C

(3),
where
1 2
, , - parameters with similar meanings in most of the functions (1) and (2). Efforts to create de
facto public good is the river segment
1
C effects (water accumulated in reservoirs built on the segment,
creating floodplains with minimal risk) to determine effectiveness
1
X
e
C

or
1
X eC (4). To create public
property, efforts are made by the rural population segment ( ) 0
C
and government, covering a share of the
total cost of construction ( ) g . These efforts should be sufficient to create the public good according to the
projects, meaning
0
0 0
C C g C + or
0
0
1
C
C
g

(5). Local financial efforts ( ) 0

C
are blocked by water
utility reserve, reducing losses caused by overflowing river. This can be taken into account if efforts
0
C will
be expressed as a function of the form
2
0
C ax bx c +
(6), where
, , 0 a b c >
. Using equation (6),
equation (5) can be written:
2
0
0
1 1 1 1
C ax bx c
C
g g g g
+

(7)
Relations (2) and (3), being substituted in (1) we get:
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
1 2
2 2 1 2
1 2 1 1 1 1
0 1 0 1 0 1
U L N X C C X C C X C C




( ) ( )
2 2 1 2 2 2
2 2 1 2 1 1 2 1
0 1 0 1
X C C X C C



+
+
(8)
Substituting
1
X
C
e
and
0
C of (7) in ( )
0 1
C C we obtain:
2
0 1
1
1 1 1
a b c
C C X X
g g e g
_
+


,
(9)
Relationship (9), being substituted in (8) we get:
1 2 2 2
2 1 1 2 1
2
1
1 1 1
a b c
U X X X
g g e g

+
+
_ _
+


, ,
(10)
We note:
2
1
A

;
2
1
a
A
g
_

,
;
3
1
1
b
A
g e
_

,
; 4
1
c
A
g

;
1 1 2 1 1
+ ;
1 2 2 2 2
+ .
Relationship (10) may be transcribed:
( )
2
1
2
1 2 3 4
U A X A X A X A

+ . Optimal amount
*
X
is determined from the condition 0
U
X

.
For 0 C optimal amount of public good
( )
* 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2
1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2
1
2
g
b
e
X
a


1

1
+ + +

1
+ + +
1
]
.
A second conclusion we can draw is that the destructive effects of water overflows the river can be
reduced if the river from upstream to downstream, is divided into "segments". The number of river segments
depends on the specific geographical river. Each "segment" of the river should "absorb" surplus water in
such a way that the river water level at the end of the segment considered and the beginning of the next
segment must not exceed the maximum allowable water level. In the next segment of the river water level
can rise from other sources, tributaries, deposits, etc.. And this segment has to solve the same problem: to
absorb excess water floodplains of the river by creating programmed by creating water power, which can be
used during the most diverse purposes. In this context the question arises: what is the optimal amount of
water it can and should absorb the segment considered, starting from its financial possibilities of
contributions from outside, including the government. The problem must be solved with the support of local
administrative structures and also from a methodological, legal, institutional, material and financial
perspective. Local administrative structures can be motivated by those from rural voters in the segment, with
financial incentives. The "motivation" can be formalized by means of functions of various forms - one of
these forms can be shaped production function, which contains two variables: the level of remuneration of
local government, the number of local government pro electors . Each of these variables, in turn, can be
expressed by two other variables: the volume of water that can be "absorbed" by segment, the savings by the
public administration, local finances, coming from outside.
By substitutions and changes, the utility function is expressed by the volume of water that can be
"absorbed" by the segment. One of the problems awaiting solution: for any given river, beginning with the
specific geography and number of human settlements, to determine the optimal number of segments that
with minimal financial cost would exclude destructive water overflowing the river.
Tackling the exclusion of uncontrolled overflowing of rivers makes water surplus "public good". The
problem can be solved only if the initiator, supporter and promoter of the idea will be the country's
government.
Intensity of human activities requires efficient use of productive resources of all components of these
activities, including water. Overflowing rivers bring most of the time, sadness and poverty. At first glance
the nature is at fault, but a closer analysis reveals that the man is guilty. The lack of concepts, principles in
organizing direct human activities near rivers, dams usage, dams, have generated considerable losses for
most of the population and the overall state budget. Massive floods turned the water into a potential
"DAMAGE" factor.
Water is a resource not only productive but also a commodity, a significant environmental component.
Water use in different activities cause different effects that can be quantified only if the water will be
estimated, quantified in monetary units. Price of water in different localities, depending on their specifics
will be different.
Development of scientific recommendations regarding human activities near rivers, which are prone to
overflows, is problematic because it is accompanied by: random processes that contribute to increasing or
decreasing the water level in the river, there the many landowners with different concepts and economic
interests, the lack on behalf of government and local structures of an efficient coordination of processes in
the immediate near rivers, rational use of land, water, lack of alternatives to avoid potential flooding.
Potential problems that may arise can be solved successfully if direct human activities near the river
will be treated systemically.
River water course is a system composed of a number of factors: dam, water flow intensity, the cross
section of the river, watercourse slope, etc.. Each element in some way influences the evolution of the
system: dam - the flow of water stops the river, raises water levels upstream, creating a pool of water dam - a
building made along the river, the river water's edge, which protects the site from flooding , corrects, directs
the bed of the watercourse, water intensity - the amount of water in the river, given segment in a unit time,
usually measured in m/s cross section - the surface obtained by cutting bed river, watercourse slope - portion
of the river bed inclined to the horizontal.
Each element can influence in a certain way the "behavior" of the river. Based on data set statistics can
be natural, medium for each element. In some cases the rate of river water can be reduced considerably or
high values that may occur as deviations from the normal current. Adjusting the "RIVER" can be done by:
correcting deviations from the average current values of disturbance compensation and eliminating
disturbances.
The incomes of the population located near the river are subject to strong fluctuations from year to
year depending on climatic conditions and hence the size of agricultural crops. In many cases it is necessary
to create insurance fund contributions of all people who take advantage of river water to compensate for
damage various random. Here it should be noted that the choice proportion applied to each method listed
above is an economic decision. At the same time, not every citizen can construct at will a "dam", which can
give at any time, and the force of water released from such accumulation further increases its destructive
power exponentially.
Use of the dams is one of the forms adjusting the water flow in the river, but in our view, is the most
successful, perhaps not recommended because: Dams are expensive, require monitoring and maintenance
(repair) permanent, failure of a dam contribute increase the probability of dam failure below, failure of two
dams contribute to increased risk of dam failure in the third, etc.. No construction made along the river edge
can solve the problem of flooding. River water should take its natural course into the riverbed.
The idea of solving the problem of floods can be schematically displayed. River length is divided into
m segments. Cross sections, angles to the horizontal water flow in different segments
, s

0,1, 2,..., s m
are
different. So the amount of water in the river in a time unit (water intensity) will be different. Denoted by
s
Y ,
s
Y intensity and increasing intensity of river water in the segment
, s
0,1, 2,..., s m . The maximum
intensity of each segment of the river water without water leaving the river bed is determined by the sum
( )
s s
Y Y + .
Denote by
s
y ,
s
X , 0,1, 2,..., s m respectively the intensity directed towards water in the river.
Segment
, s
0,1, 2,..., s m water intensity increases at the expense of intensities
s
Y ,
s
Y ,
s
y and a decrease
in intensities account
1 s
Y
+
,
1 s
Y
+
,
s
X . Water will not leave the river bed segment
s
if
1 1 s s s s s s
Y Y y Y Y X
+ +
+ + + + . Waters of the river intensity
s
X are directed in lakes-reservoirs with
storage capacities
(1)
0
W ;
(1)
1
W ;
(1)
2
W ; ;
(1)
s
W ; ;
(1)
m
W .
Intensity
s
X water leaving the river bed to lakes, reservoirs next segment should provide enough
water current intensity that it does not leave the river bed. Lakes-reservoirs
s
W , 0,1, 2,..., s m becomes
water absorbers, ensuring maximum water during natural bed of the river, water storage capacity by them
depend on the segmentation of the river: each segment, its ability to "absorb" water ensures acceptable level
of water for the next segment. Let us assume that there are some additional expenses caused by lack of
intensity
s
X can be fixed in advance. Let's call them "deficit spending current of water." When these costs
will be ( ) ( )
1 1 s s s s s s s
k Y Y y Y Y X
+ +
1 + + +
]
, where
s
k - specific expenses related to the lack of
intensity, including the following segments floods.
If the segment and intensity
s
X directed towards the lake-reserved
s
W exceeds demand, the excess
costs of intensity will be
( ) ( )
1 1 s s s s s s s
C X Y Y y Y Y
+ +
1 + + +
]
, where
s
C - specific costs of creating water current
intensity lake-reservoir
s
W .
So the segment
s
can be two possible cases: intensity
s
X is too small, the intensity
s
X is too high.
To simplify further calculations we introduce a new random variable:
( ) ( )
1 1 s s s s s s
Z Y Y y Y Y
+ +
+ + + , determining the amount of deficit or excess current of water
directed from the riverbed to the lake-reservoir segment
, s
0,1, 2,..., s m .
To minimize the expected value of the expenditure, well to determine what size
s
X hope
mathematical expenditure intensity is minimal. The expected value is equal to
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
s
s
X
s s s s s s s s s s s s s
X
EK C X Z f Z dZ k Z X f Z dZ
+

+

.
Mathematical expectancy of the cost of additional equipment
s
X river intensity rate river water in the
lake-reservoir
s
W contains two terms.
The first case corresponds to
s s
X W > ; second - in the case where
s s
X W < . The problem is finding
that quantity of water flow intensity
s
X on which the amount
s
EK reaches the minimum level is a matter of
differential calculus min
s
EK , when
s
s
EK
0
X

. We
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
s
s
EK
0
X
s
s
X
s s s s s s s s s s s s
s X
C X Z f Z dZ k Z X f Z dZ
X
+

+


.
From here we learn that min
s
EK , if
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
s
s
X
s s
-
s s
X
X -Z
Z -X
s s s
s s
s
s s s
s
f Z dZ
X k
C
f Z dZ
X

hence a well defined economic sense: the integral that appears in the numerator in the left side of equality, is
the mathematical expectation of the potential intensity of surplus river water flow, probably called marginal
surplus, which is integral in the denominator and is the mathematical expectation of failure intensity
necessary to reduce the water level of the riverbed considered segment called marginal deficit intensity. So
the intensity of water currents directed from the riverbed to the lake-reservoir (s) is optimal when the ratio of
marginal surplus and deficit probably is probably marginal costs equal to report those specific. Using the
"theorem of differentiation under integral sign" we get
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
s
X
s s s s
X X X X
s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s s
a a a
X Z f Z dZ f Z dZ Z Z f Z dZ f Z dZ

Similarly calculate the integral derived from the denominator of expression and obtain:
( ) ( ) ( )
s
X
s s
s s s s s s s s
X X
Z X f Z dZ f Z dZ
+

Therefore
( )
( )
s
s
X
-
X

s s s
s
s
s s s
f Z dZ
k
C
f Z dZ

, 0,1, 2,..., s m
Integral ( )
s
X
-
s s s
f Z dZ

is the probability that

s s
Z X < , well probability that the intensity excess
reserves; integral
( )
s
X
s s s
f Z dZ

is the probability that

s s
Z X > , well the intensity of reserves will prove to
be insufficient, so this segment is risk factor
s
, which we denote by
s
P .
Therefore, integral ( )
s
X
-
s s s
f Z dZ

equals ( ) 1
s
P - the confidence in the segment
s
. Or
1
1
1 1
s s
s s s
P k
P P C
+

, where we calculate the optimal risk factor
s
s
s s
k
P
k C

+
best trust factor:
1
s
s
s s
C
P
k C

+
,
0,1, 2,..., s m
.
To convince us that min
s
EK for
*
s S
X X , where
*
S
X - the optimal value. In this specific purpose
( ) ( )
*
s s
2
* *
2
X X
0
s
s s s s s s
s
EK
C f X k f X
X

1

+ >
1

1
]
. So min
s
EK , 0,1, 2,..., s m .
Water accumulated in lakes, reservoirs
s
W , 0,1, 2,..., s m can be used for irrigation of crops, fish
growth, for industrial, social, ecological, etc.. The intensity of water flow ( )
s
X t is a random size. You
mention that reservoirs lakes are not "buildings" located above the maximum level of water in the river. In
order to exclude risky risky, when dams fail lakes water pressure tanks, water reservoirs in the adjacent
spaces are in the river (no river), river water below. Water accumulated in the lake-reservoir, after a certain
volume (maximum volume), creates a situation of "saturation", where river water flowing in river reservoirs
lakes is excluded. Lakes, reservoirs are located in areas flooded by river water. Their number is determined
by the amount of water during critical periods of overflow water.
The volume of water accumulated in the time interval ( ) ,T , for example in a year is equal to
(1) (1) (1)
0
( )
T
s s
t
X t dt W m q

- maximum volume of water accumulated in the lake-reservoir

s
and in the
interval ( ) ,T , where
( ) 1
1, 2,..., m m
;
( ) 1
s
q
- unit of measurement of water volume.
At various intervals (different years) the volume of water accumulated in the lake-reservoir and will be
different and may be:
(1)
(1)
1
(1)
1
(1)
2
(1)
(1) (1)
(1) (1)
1
1*
2*
*
*
s
s
s
s
m
s
m
q with probability P
q with probability P
W
m q with probability P
m q with probability P

'

M
M
Every year (the interval ( ) ,T ) of the volume of water
( ) 1
s
W
, for various purposes, can be used a
water volume of
( ) ( ) 2 2 2
s s
W m q
, where
( ) ( ) 2 2
2
1, 2,..., m m ;
( ) 2
s
q
- units of water volume that can be used.
From the volume of water
( ) 2
s
W
may be used for irrigation
( ) ( ) ( ) 3 3 3
s s
W m q
units, where
( ) ( ) 3 3
2
1, 2,..., m m .
The question: to determine the best use of water program for irrigation and storage of finished product
in question. From the volume of water
( ) ( ) 1 1 1
s s
W m q
, accumulated in the lake-reservoir and the volume can
be used
( ) ( ) 2 2 2
s s
W m q
, of which for irrigation
( ) ( ) 3 3 3
s s
W m q
. Segment
s
, 0,1, 2,..., s m has irrigated
areas
( ) 1
s
S
and non-irrigated
( ) 2
s
S
.
Using the irrigated areas in the segment
s
, 0,1, 2,..., s m with a potential
( ) 1
s
S
ha irrigated with
potential
( ) 2
s
S
ha can be produced in volume
( ) 1
s

. The finished products obtained can be stored in the

volume
( ) 2
s

consumed - in volume
( ) 3
s

, used for other purposes (eg. donations) - the volume of

( ) 4
s

,
0,1, 2,..., s m
.
Irrigated areas with potential for
( ) 1
s
S
ha, depending on the availability of water may be only partially
irrigated. Denote by
s
the share of irrigated areas in the segment
s
can be irrigated;
s
- hydro-module
(water requirements per unit of surface. Determines the level of surface irrigation segment
s
: volume of
water used irrigation is equal to
( ) ( ) 3 1
s s s s
W S
determine to where the share (the surface irrigation) of
irrigated area can be irrigated.
(3)
(1)
s
s
s s
W
S

, 0,1, 2,..., s m .
Segment and irrigated areas, depending on availability of water may be only partially irrigated. Denote
by
(1)
s

%
,
(1)

s
,
(1)
s
volume of products obtained from 1 ha of the irrigated areas but non-irrigated, the
irrigated surfaces, the area irrigated by the
( ) 2
s
S
ha. Determine the volume of finished product and segment
conducted on irrigated areas irrigated, irrigated non-irrigated, non-irrigable:
( )
(1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (2) (1)
3

1 ,
s s s s s s s s
S S S + +
%
0,1, 2,..., s m .
Production of finished product involves certain costs. Depending on the segment considered, the
specific irrigated areas, irrigated, the cost per 1 ha will be different. Denote by
(1)
s
C
%
,
(1)

s
C ,
(1)
s
C cost per 1 ha
of irrigated areas non-irrigated, the irrigated area, non-irrigable surfaces. Determine the total costs related to
production and final product segment:
( )
(1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (2) (1)
3

1
s s s s s s s s
C S C S C S C + +
%
, 0,1, 2,..., s m .
Denote by
( )
2
(2) (2) (2) (2)
1 2
, ,...,
s s s s
P P P P

,
( )
3
(3) (3) (3) (3)
1 2
, ,...,
s s s s
P P P P

,
( )
4
(4) (4) (4) (4)
1 2
, ,...,
s s s s
P P P P

vector stored prices, consumption, with other destinations. Determine the total revenue realized in the
segment
s
:
3 2 4
(2) (2) (3) (3) (4) (4) (1) (2) (3) (4)
1 1 1
s s s s si si si si si si
i i i
V V V V P P P


+ + + +

, 0,1, 2,..., s m .
Determine the total costs related to storing the finished product segment
s
. Denote by
(2)
s
C specific
expenses (one unit) related to storing the finished product in the segment
s
. Total expenditures are equal to
2
(2) (2) (3)
1
s si si
i
C C

,
0,1, 2,..., s m
.
Examine the random process:
( ) ( )
2
(2) (2) (2) (2) (2) (2)
1 2
, , , ,...,
st st st st s t s t s t
A W W


where
(2)
st
W - water volume of the segment
s
at the beginning of the period t , which can be used,
(2)
st
-
volume of products stored in the segment
s
at the beginning of the period t .
Formalize regulatory actions:
( ) ( )
2
(3) (3) (3) (3) (3) (4) (3) (4)
1 2
, , , , ,..., ,
st st st st st st s t s t s t
B W W


where
(3)
st
W - volume of water for irrigation purpose, the segment
s
at the beginning of the period t ;
(3)
st
-
volume of products consumed in the segment
s
at the beginning of the period t ;
(4)
st
- volume products to
other destinations in the segment
s
at the beginning of the period t .
Naturally it to take account of restrictions:
{ }
(2) (1) (2) (3) (4)
1 1
min ,
st st st s t
W W W W W
+
+ , well the segment
s
in year 1 t + can be used no more than
the volume of water in the lake-water tank, no more than residual volume
( )
(2) (3)
st st
W W water period t plus
the amount of complementary water
(4)
st
W ;
(3) (2) (1)
0
st st st
W W W segment
s
in year t the volume of water
for irrigation purpose
(3)
st
W can not exceed the volume of water that can be used
(2)
st
W , and it can not be
greater than the volume lake-water reservoir
(1)
st
W ;
(3) (1)
st s s
W S , the volume of water used for irrigation in
the segment
s
in year t ,
(3)
st
W can not be greater than water demand
(1)
s s
S .
Control systems can serve:
{ } , 0;1; 2;...
st
B t ,
( )
0 1 2
, , ,...,
st s s s st
B f A A A A .
Adjustment

belongs to the space , where ( ) ( )

0 1 2
, , ,...,
s s s st t st
A A A A U A
, where
( ) ( )
( ) ( ) {
(2) (2) (3) (3) (3) (2) (3)
, , : 0 ,
t st st s s s s st st st
U A U A U W W W W W
( ) }
2
(2) (2) (2) (1) (2)
1 2
, , , ,...,
s s st st s t s t s t
S A W

.
If
st
A and
st
B are finite, then there is the optimal control system
*
. For system
( )
(1) (2) (1) (2)

, , ,
s s s s
W S S
, where
(2)

s
- maximum storage capacity of finished product segment
s
.
Determine the best setting ( ) { }
*
st st
B A which probably income ( )
s
V will be maxim.
Depending on the specifics of the volume of water in the lake-reservoir
s
for irrigation
(2)
s
W is a
random size, which with some probability may be
(2) (2) (2) (2)
1
, ,..., ,...,
s s sn s
W W W W . Each locality where lakes are
reservoirs created can enroll in one of the types, characteristics
1 2
, ,..., ,...,
l h
with probabilities
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1 2
, ,..., ,...,
l h
q q q q . For each feature
l
, 1, 2,..., l h , conditional probabilities are known
(2)
sj
l
W
P

_


,
,
1, 2,..., j n
.
Distribution parameter

, according to probability theory, probability can be determined

( )
( )
(2)
(2)
(2)
sj l l
l
sj
sj
W q
q P
W
P W

_ _


, ,
, 1, 2,..., l h , 0,1, 2,..., s m .
We recognize that lake-water reservoir
s

(2)
sj
W can be used for irrigation of crops on the surface
(1)
s
S
which is known normative irrigation, denoted by
s
; income and production costs made on a unit area
irrigated, non-irrigated.
Irrigation systems are expensive and the financial possibilities of creating them are limited. So the
problem: to determine the time t (year) to initiate construction of irrigation and irrigated area size
(1) (1)
s s
S S
,
0,1, 2,..., s m
, for which the mathematical expectation of the annual profit will be made the maximum.
When
0
t t there may be alternatives: ( )
0
t I - in year
0
t construction of irrigation system is initiated,
( )
0
t II - construction system is last for years to come. For case ( )
0
t I determine the likelihood
( ) ( )
(2) (2)
1 2
, ,...,
s s
P W P W
( ) ( )
(2) (2)
,...,
sj sn
P W P W ; surfaces
(1)
s
S , based on maximizing the annual profit, made
from irrigated agricultural areas. The following year ( )
0
1 t + examined the same alternative: ( ) ( )
0
1 t I +
and ( ) ( )
0
1 t II + . If ( ) ( )
0
1 t I + size of irrigated agricultural land
(1)
s
S is determined taking into account
the volume of water remaining in the previous year
(2)
si
W . Water availability probabilities
(2)
si
W in ( )
0
1 t +
will be
(2) (2)
(2) (2)
1
h
sj sj
l
l
l si sj
W W
P P q
W W

_ _ _


, , ,

,
1, 2,..., j n
,
0,1, 2,..., s m
.
And alternative ( ) ( )
0
1 t I + is determined surface
(1)
s
S for the mathematical expectation of profit
will be maxim. Iterative over the years are created irrigation of agricultural lands adjacent to lakes-reservoirs.
Denote by
( )
1 2
(2) (2) (2)
, , ,...,
t
t
si si si
f t W W W
- average annual profit. If alternative ( )
0
t I to
0
0 t annual
profit is equal to ( )
0
0 f . For alternative ( ) ( )
0
1 t I + in year
0
0 t , the volume of water in the lake-
reservoir
(2)
si
W annual profit is equal to
( )
(2)
1
1,
si
f W ; ( )
( ) ( )
(2) (2)
0 1
1
1 1,
n
si si
i
f f W P W

;
( ) ( )
(2) (2) (2)
1 2
1
2, 2, ,
n
sj
si si sj
si
j
W
f W f W W P
W

,
etc..
Similar functions are determined:
( ) ( )
0 0
2 ,..., ,... f f t
( ) ( )
(2) (2)
1 1
3, ,..., ,
si si
f W f t W etc.
Easily shown that ( ) ( )
0 0
1 f t f t + , for 0 t ; 1,...
( ) ( )
(2) (2)
1 1
, 1,
si si
f t W f t W + .
And since commissioning of irrigation systems is made in different periods, it is necessary to insert
provisions relying coefficient
( ) 1
t

+ , where

- efficiency of capital investments. In this case will be

compared not size ( )
0
0 f with ( )
0
1 f , but ( )
0
0 f with
( ) ( )
1
0
1 1 f

+ .
Moment
0
t for initiation of construction of irrigation system shall be easily demonstrated as follows:
in equation
( ) ( ) ( )
1
0 0
0 1 1 f f

< + results that
( ) ( )
0
1
t
E f t

+ .
A third conclusion we can draw is that the considerable losses that society bears the consequences of
when it comes to floods are determined by inappropriate human activities, as well as irresponsible, baseless,
risky ones held near the river. Sporadic excess water in the river, flooding, generates over many years human
and material losses. Bringing water problems can and should be transformed into a productive resource. To
this end that the river must be equipped with "diapers" lake-level storage tanks with surplus water of the
river. Lifting systems of dykes, dams, water accumulation in the river are building undue risk and can
generate extreme situations. Lakes, reservoirs must be built on land without a flood potential. Water from
lakes, reservoirs can be used in various purposes. Irrigation systems help to boost cost recovery for the
"diapers" rivers.
Bibliography
Maximilian Silvestru, Modeling business processes, ULIM, 2009.