Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 17, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 17, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Record grain output likely on good rain in Jul, Aug: Pawar
The country will achieve record foodgrain production in kharif season this year if monsoon continues to be good in July and August as projected by the weather office, Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said today. The Met Department has projected good monsoon in July and August for the entire country, including North-east region which has received deficient rain, he added. The sowing operations generally continue till August and the final picture would be known only after that. If the monsoon situation continues, the trend definitely showing the foodgrains production will break last two years record. (Source: Economic
Times)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 16, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19851 5955 59.30 106 1290.8

-0.91 -1.25 -0.86 -0.30 0.55

2.12 1.64 -1.33 2.39 3.60

3.51 2.53 3.12 8.33 -6.96

16.07 14.58 7.71 19.87 -18.88

.Source: Reuters

CCI to continue cotton sale till end of the season

Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) will distribute the sale of cotton stocks with it till September, when the current cotton season will end. CCI had purchased about 24 lakh bales of cotton from the market at Minimum Support Price this season (October 2012 to September 2013). Since April this year, it sold nearly 11 lakh bales and has another 12.5 lakh bales of stock. The CCI sells 20,000 to 50,000 bales a day through e-auction. When the sales commenced in April, just 10 textile mills and traders had registered with the CCI for the e-auction. Now, it is more than 150 and another 50 registrations are expected. The CCI fixes a base rate for the cotton to be sold on a particular day based on the market price and the bids are usually higher than the base rate. Most of the purchase is by textile mills. The CCI has decided that it will not release the entire quantity with it into the market immediately. It will ensure that cotton is available with it for sales till the end of the season in September. (Source:
The Hindu)

No plans to levy import duty on pulses now

The Government has no immediate plans to impose any import duty on pulses, Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said on Tuesday. The confusion among pulses traders was triggered following reports that the Food Ministry was in favour of imposing a 7.5 per cent import duty. The Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP), in its recommendations, had suggested imposition of a 10 per cent on duty on imports to boost domestic production. Currently, there is no duty and importers can bring in pulses duty free till March 31, according to a Finance Ministry notification issued in March. The pulses trade has opposed any move to impose import duty. However, the trade wants the Government to open up exports to help stabilise prices that are currently bearish and below levels of the minimum support price. (Source: Business
Line)

Global Crop Yields Fail to Keep Pace With Demand

The world is not increasing yields of major crops quickly enough to meet future food demands from an expanding population, presenting a "looming and growing agricultural crisis", according to a study. Yields of maize, rice, wheat and soybean - responsible for providing 43 per cent of global dietary energy and 40 per cent of protein - must increase between 60 and 110 per cent by 2050 to satisfy projected food consumption. But yields will increase only by between 38 and 67 per cent at the current pace of improvement in yields. This will not meet demand, particularly from a growing population keen on meat and dairy products that must also share its agricultural land with biofuels. (Source: Reuters)

China may become top wheat importer after crops ruined

China's wheat crop has suffered more severely than previously thought from frost in the growing period and rain during the harvest, and import demand to compensate for the damage could see the country eclipse Egypt as the world's top buyer. Higher imports, which have already been revised upwards on initial damage reports, will further shrink global supplies and support prices, fuelling new worries over global food security. The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday raised its forecast for China's imports in 2013/14 to 8.5 million tonnes from 3.2 million tonnes in the previous year, prompting U.S. wheat prices to rally to more than two-week highs. But overseas traders and analysts estimate imports could rise above 10 million tonnes, surpassing the 9 million tonnes the world's biggest buyer Egypt is expected to buy. (Source: Reuters)

China's soybean imports to surge to new record in July

China's soybean imports will reach 7 million tonnes in July, exceeding the previous month's record shipments as a poor harvest and rising demand depress its domestic supplies to a four-year low. "Chinese soybean imports have been boosted to a record level in June and are also likely to be very high in July 2013 partly to replenish the unusually low stocks of imported soybeans and to satisfy demand from the domestic crushing industry," Oil World said on Tuesday. China will import 7.0 million tonnes of soybeans in July, up from 5.87 million in July 2012 and up from last month's previous record 6.93 million tonnes, the analyst predicted. In June, China's soybean imports surged around 36 percent on May as easing port congestion in key exporter Brazil enabled shipments to meet strong Chinese demand. Chinese soybean stocks will fall to a four-year low of 8.0 million tonnes at the end of July, Oil World said, citing a reduced harvest, robust demand from China's food processing industry and higher soybean crushings for animal feed and vegetable oil production. (Source: Reuters)

Brazil sugar mills follow local drivers in shift to ethanol

Ethanol demand in Brazil rose 24 percent in June from a year ago, according to fuel distributors, signaling a shift among motorists that will help shrink the global sugar glut and reduce Brazil's dependence on gasoline imports. As a global glut in sugar pushes prices near three-year lows, Brazil's cane industry association Unica is likely to revise down its official forecast for sugar output from 35.5 million tonnes seen in April to no more than last year's 34.1 million tones. Analysts expect growing demand for ethanol on the local market to absorb the bigger cane crop and draw down the global sugar surplus. Supply of ethanol, which competes directly with gasoline, has picked up sufficiently on the back of the record sugar cane harvest. In June, mills allocated 58 percent of the cane harvest to ethanol and 42 percent to sugar, while last year they allocated the crop at 52 percent and 48 percent, respectively, Unica said.
(Source: Reuters)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 17, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana August futures continued to slide downwards yesterday hitting a fresh contract low of `2693 per qtl as the Agri Minister Sharad Pawar said that the government has no immediate plans to impose import duty on pulses. Comfortable supplies on the back of higher production, subdued demand and higher sowing of kharif pulses have exerted downside pressure on the chana prices in since last three weeks. the futures settled 1.62% lower while the spot gained marginally by 0.27% as farmers may not sell below the MSP levels. CCEA is in favor of imposing 7.5% import duty on Pulses. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts of Chana w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013. The CCEA declared the MSP for kharif pulses. The MSP of Tur has been raised by ` 450 to ` 4,300/qtl, moong by ` 100 to ` 4,500/qtl while Urad has been kept unchanged at ` 4,300/qtl. Pulses sowing have been observed at 25.95 lakh hectares as compared to 13.04 lakh hectares during the same time last year. Sowing of kharif pulses was adversely impacted last year and was down by 16 percent due to deficient rains.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX July'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on July 16, 2013 % change Last 3096 2944 Prev day 0.27 -1.60 WoW -0.79 -3.82 MoM -4.65 -9.42
Source: Reuters

YoY -35.94 -36.63

Spread Matrix
Closing 3095.7 2944 2975 3038 19-Jul-13 -151.7 0 -

as on July 15, 2013 20-Aug-13 -120.7 31 0 20-Sep-13 -57.7 94 63 0 as on July 15, 2013 Stocks as on 13th July 82317 60980 11592 154889 Qty in Process 309 111 938 1358

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 15th July 82716 61092 11680 155488 Qty in Process 180 30 1031 1241

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. According to third advance Estimates released on 3 May 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 18 mn tn, up 5.76% compared to previous year. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 4.03% lower at 5.95 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 9.25% higher at 12.05 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. However, chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record output of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Erratic weather in M.P. lowered the yield.
rd

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX August contract

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of yellow peas in the month of June 2013 declined to 0.83 lakh metric tons compared to 1.21 la metric tons during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana may trade on a mixed note with a negative bias as higher supplies and smooth sowing progress may continue to exert downside pressure on the prices. However, prices may find support at lower levels on account of bargain buying. Prices may also not sustain below the MSP levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Aug Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for July 17, 2013 Resistance 3010-3055

2900-2940

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 17, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean October futures traded on a mixed note yesterday. Prices opened higher due to good demand from the crushing industry for its meal coupled with tight supplies towards the end of the season. However, Rupee appreciation capped sharp gains and pressurized prices at higher levels and settled 0.32% higher. As per the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, India's oil meal exports rose to 348,946 tonnes in June from 311,089 tonnes a year earlier. Soy meal exports rose to 213,564 tonnes in June, the third month of the 2013/14 fiscal year, from 180,987 tonnes a year ago. Oilseeds were planted in 135.99 la ha as on 12 July, 2013. The same was observed at 67.70 la ha during the corresponding period last year. th Soybean was sown on 28.42 la ha in Maharashtra as on 11 July 2013 as against 26.4 la ha during the same period last year. Similarly, in the states of Gujarat, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh, sowing was seen at 0.43, 9.2 and 2.42 la ha respectively. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 mn tonnes. IMDs forecasts of normal monsoon have raised hopes of better output next season too. International Markets Soybean futures on the CBOT traded on a positive note yesterday and settled 1.48% higher on Monday on account of tight supplies. Also, the new crop November Futures extended gains on fears of crop damage due to hot and dry weather conditions, especially in Kansas and Nebraska. Also, the USDA weekly crop condition report decreased the good to excellent rating to 65% from 67% last week. Only 26% of the soybean crop is blooming against a 5 year average of 40%. USDA has released the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and has kept the yield unchanged at 44.5 bushel per acre. US Soybean production is projected at 3.42 bn bushels, up 30 mn due to increased harvested area. Harvested area, estimated at 76.9 mn acres in the June 28 Acreage report, is 0.7 mn above the June projection. The 2013/14 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $9.75 to $11.75 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 285.9 mn tons, up 0.6 mn.
th

Market Highlights

as on July 16, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.40 -0.24 -0.05 1.48 0.19 0.47 1.87 -8.55 0.27 -1.10

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT Aug'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX July '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3772 3793 1475 3514 3420

MoM -3.95 -1.48 -2.72 0.27 -1.84

YoY -17 -17.6 -9.70 -18.3 -20.5

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3772 Spot 19-Jul-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 3793 3167 3166.5 0 -626 0 19-Jul-13 21 18-Oct-13 -605

as on July 16, 2013 20-Nov-13 -605.5 -626.5 -0.5 0 as on July 16, 2013 20-Aug-13 -79.4 15 0 20-Sep-13 -41.4 53 38 0 as on July 15, 2013 Qty in Process 60 0 0 60 as on July 15, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 71 0 512 91 120 794 NCDEX October contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3514.4 3420 3435 3473 19-Jul-13 -94.4 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 15th July 16068 921 331 17320 Stocks as on 15th July 3040 4549 20779 634 63949 5283 1961 100195 Qty in Process 201 0 20 221 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 422 50 100 794 Stocks as on 13th July 16792 921 331 18044 Stocks as on 13th July 3040 4549 20708 634 63698 5213 1920 18044

Outlook
Soybean may trade on a mixed note today. Good demand from the crushing industry coupled with higher international prices and expectation of a weak Rupee may support prices. However, higher sowing and improved crop prospects may cap the upside in the prices.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed futures declined 0.52% on Tuesday on account of higher supplies in the domestic markets coupled with an increase in sowing area under kharif oilseeds pressurized prices at higher levels. however, spot demand restricted a sharp fall in the prices. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Overall trend in mustard seed remain bearish amidst higher production this season. However, demand at lower levels may support prices.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 17, 2013 Support 3128-3147 3400-3430 Resistance 3185-3204 3470-3490

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 17, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Refine soy oil traded on a mixed note with a negative bias in the intraday and settled marginally lower by 0.09% due to a sharp appreciation in the Rupee. However, festive season demand supported the prices at lower levels. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts of Refined Soy oil w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 40.2% to 917,964 tn in May, after dropping for 3 months, mainly due to surge in palm oil imports. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 687.30 690.60 45.71 2259 494.50 Prev day -0.12 0.25 -0.28 -3.05 -0.70

as on July 16, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTAugust'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia August '13 Fut CPO-MCX- July '13 Futures

WoW -0.82 -1.08 -2.91 -5.72 -3.61

MoM -3.21 -2.94 -5.71 -6.27 -0.04

YoY -12.72 -12.98 -16.36 -27.13 -13.46

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 687.3 690.6 671.45 657 19-Jul-13 3.3 0 20-Aug-13 -15.85 -19.15 0 -

as on July 16, 2013 20-Sep-13 -30.3 -33.6 -14.45 0 as on July 16, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil may trade on a mixed note with a positive bias as festive demand may support prices at lower levels. Prices will also track the Rupee movement in the intraday.

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO traded on a negative note tracking weak international markets coupled with lower imports due to higher prices and settled 0.7% lower on Tuesday. Prices on KLCE declined sharply by 3.05% on account of improvement in the yield. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for July, up from 9% in June. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased by 0.29% against May, while end stocks declined by 9.4%.Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during July 1-15 declined 22.8% at 547,857 tn as against 709,860 tn during June 1-15. Exports in June rose 7 percent due to Ramadan demand. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports declined in June by 21% from a record high in May due to weak Rupee. The world's top buyer of vegetable oils imported 296,290 tonnes of refined palm oil in June. The jump in refined palm oil purchases will raise the clamor for increasing import duties to protect local oilseed growers and refiners against cheaper supplies from major exporters Indonesia and Malaysia. But the Indian government is yet to pay any heed as inflation has only just reached comfortable levels.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Jul-13 31-Aug-13 30-Sept-13 Closing 494.5 492.2 487.4 31-Jul-13 0 31-Aug-13 -2.3 0 -

30-Sept-13 -7.1 -4.8 0 NCDEX August contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX July contract

Outlook
CPO prices may continue to trade with a negative bias today tracking weak international markets. However, expectations that government may increase import tax on refined edible oils may support prices. Expectations of a weak Rupee may also support prices at lower levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Aug NCDEX Futures CPO MCX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 17, 2013

Source: Telequote

Support 664-667 486-490

Resistance 674-678 498-502

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 17, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera August Futures corrected from higher levels and settled 1.14% lower yesterday as higher than expected arrivals have pressurized prices. Also, record high production and good supplies have pressurized prices. Good rains in the main jeera growing regions have increased the moisture content of the soil, improving prospects of a better sowing in the coming season. However, good export demand limited the downside. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. According to IBIS, India exported 12178 tn of jeera in May. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam &USA. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1 percent Jeera of Indian origin is being offered in Singapore at $2,350 tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13755 13400 5716 5740 Prev day -0.08 -1.23 -0.89 -3.50

as on July 16, 2013 % Change WoW 0.45 -1.05 1.77 0.24 MoM 2.35 3.20 3.45 4.90 YoY -11.5 -13.5 23.30 15.59

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Fut Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX July '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 13755.3 13400 13622.5 13895 19-Jul-13 -355.3 0 20-Aug-13 -132.8 222.5 0 -

as on July 16, 2013 20-Sep-13 139.7 495 272.5 0 as on July 16, 2013 19-Jul-13 24.4 0 20-Aug-13 86.4 62 0 20-Sep-13 134.4 110 48 0 as on July 15, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 13th July Process 1422 6574 7996 7315 NCDEX August contract 9 84 93 129

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 7,000 bags on Tuesday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 5715.6 5740 5802 5850

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera may trade on a mixed note today. Robust overseas demand may support prices while higher supplies may pressurize prices. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep the prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 15th July 1422 6430 7852 7394 Qty in Process 9 84 93 59

Turmeric
Turmeric futures declined sharply yesterday erasing the gains of the previous session tracking the sowing progress in Andhra Pradesh coupled with huge carryover stocks. Prices had gained on Monday due to good overseas as well as domestic enquiries. Sowing in Andhra Pradesh is higher than last year but at par with the normal sowing. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.89% and 3.81% lower on Tuesday.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad mandi were reported at 2,000 bags on Tuesday. th Sowing of Turmeric in AP is reported at 0.26 lakh ha as on 10 July, 2013 as against 0.23 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.26 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is reported around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric may trade on a mixed note today. Good overseas as well as domestic demand coupled with declining arrivals may support prices. However, the ongoing sowing coupled with good monsoon progress may pressurize prices. Huge carryover stocks are also likely to keep prices under check.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX August contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Aug Futures Turmeric NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for July 17, 2013

Support 13390-13500 5640-5740 Resistance 13750-13870 5880-5950

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 17, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar spot as well as Futures traded on a flat note yesterday. Export demand is seen offsetting higher supplies. Expectations of recovery in the cane yield due to improving monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka exerted downside pressure on the sugar prices last week. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation and with strong demand in Gulf and African states due to the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan. (Source: Reuters dated 1st July, 2013). Iraq issued a tender on Monday to buy a minimum of 50,000 tonnes of white sugar from all origins except India and Thailand. (Source: Reuters) According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 48.4 lakh ha as compared to 50.04 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Based on satellite images for June and field surveys carried out by ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association), total sugarcane acreage available for crushing in the sugar season 2013-14 will be about 51.50 lakh hectares, which is about 1.52% less than 52.30 lakh hectares last year. (Source: ET)

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX July '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE October '13 Fut `/qtl 2967 `/qtl 483 $/tonne 355.56 $/tonne -0.99 0.56 0.00 Last 3064

as on July 16, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.01 -0.01 -0.44 -2.46 -2.08 MoM -0.25 -3.01 -0.29 -4.65 YoY -8.16 -8.14 -26.58 -29.73

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3063.95 2967 3053 3078 19-Jul-13 -96.95 0 20-Aug-13 -10.95 86 0 -

as on July 16, 2013 20-Sep-13 14.05 111 25 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. However, good monsoon may curb some losses. According to the preliminary estimate of an industry body, Production is estimated to be 237 lakh tonne for 2013-14 season as compared to 250 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. According to trade body, with a domestic consumption of 235 lakh tonne and an expected production of 237 lakh tonne, the year 2013-14 will be a consecutive fourth year of surplus production for India. ISMA has estimated that the opening balance as on October 1, 2013 (for the new season 2013-14), will be around 80 lakh tonne, which is about 20 lakh tonne more than the normal opening balance.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 15th July 2548 6237 21 1098 9904 Qty in Process 0 50 0 0 50 Stocks as on 13th July 2548 6187 21 1098 11185

as on July 15, 2013 Qty in Process 0 50 0 0 50

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX August contract

Global Sugar Updates

ICE Raw sugar continued to decline and settled 1% lower on Tuesday after Rabo bank estimated fourth consecutive year of surplus production in 2013-14. Further abundant supplies from Brazil coupled with expectations of a dry July which may boost the harvesting and crushing also exerted downside pressure on the prices. According to UNICA, Brazilian mills have produced 88.95 lakh tn of sugar from the start of the cane season on April 1 through June, up a 33 percent from 66.9 lakh tn a year ago. Also, Mills have used 58.1 percent of the cane crush for ethanol since the start of the season - up sharply from 53.82 percent at this time last year with the rest used for sugar.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar August Futures are expected to trade with upward bias today as increase in import duty and reports of fresh export deals may support prices at lower levels. Festive demand may also support prices. However, expectations on improvement in the cane output may cap sharp gains.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Aug NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for July 17, 2013 Support 3042-3047 Resistance 3061-3070

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 17, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
MCX Cotton Futures continued to trade on a negative note on account of higher planting and good monsoon and higher sowing so far in the country and settled 1.02% lower. Also, talks of export controls added to the downside pressure. The regulator has reduced position limit in cotton futures to 1.95 lk th bales for member levels and 65,000 bales at client level wef 5 July 2013. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the seaosn (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) is reported at 318.62, down 2.2 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1011.5 19330 84.67 92.45

as on July 16, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.10 -3.94 -1.02 -3.40 -0.80 0.92 0.33 0.22 MoM YoY -3.94 #N/A -0.57 6.33 -7.25 17.11 -4.10 11.59
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Oct 13 Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 28-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 19330 20220 19750 28-Jun-13 0

as on July 16, 2013 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 890 0 420 -470 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting has seen a significant increase in sowing at 92.44 la ha as th on 12 July 2013 as against 65.22 la ha during the same period last year. A considerable increase in cotton acreage is observed in Gujarat wherein sowing was reported at 22.71 la ha on 12 July 2013, up from 8.6 la ha last year. Similarly, sowing in Rajasthan and AP was seen at 3.29 la ha and 13.2 la ha respectively. In Maharashtra, however, cotton sowing was reported at 28.95 la ha which is less as compared to the sowing here during the same period last year which was 33.6 la ha.

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on 15th July 10000 5400 113200 21500 900 100 151100

as on July 15, 2013

Stocks as on 13th July 10000 5900 117000 21700 900 100 155600 NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
th

Technical Chart - Kapas

Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton October traded with a negative bias and settled 0.8% lower on Tuesday as Chinas June imports declined by 22% from May. Also lack of demand from mills and good rains in Texas pressurized prices/ The USDA monthly report increased its forecast for global stocks to 94.34mn bales from its previous forecast of 92.49 mn bales. The report also reduced US export estimates for 2012-13 crop year. ICAC has lowered projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. Reports indicate that textile mills in China are seeking permission to import more cotton. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX July contract

Outlook
Cotton prices are expected to continue to decline today as Chinas plan to reduce stock piles in the next three or more years may turn the sentiments negative. Lower imports by China may also add to the downside pressure. However, sharp downside in the near term may be capped as continue it will its current stockpiling program through 2013.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX July Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for July 167, 2013 Support 997-1003 19000-19180 Resistance 1016-1028 19450-19600
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Wednesday| July 17, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar seed as well as Guar gum October Futures traded on bearish note on yesterday on account of higher sowing, improved rains in the guar belt, as well as comfortable supplies and settled 3.39% and 3.54% lower respectively on Tuesday. Prices have been on a declining trend on reports of improved rains, higher sowing and comfortable supplies. Since the resumption of Guar seed and Guar gum contracts on the futures platform, prices are on a downward trend on account of host of factors like bumper summer harvest in Gujarat, smooth monsoon progress and expected higher sowing.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX July 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX July13 Fut `/qtl 7130 `/qtl 19950 `/qtl 20500 `/qtl -2.19 -3.65 -2.86 Last Prev day 7060 -3.60

as on July 16, 2013 % change WoW -0.97 -0.28 -1.00 0.69 MoM -2.49 1.71 -3.65 0.94 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this years monsoon has so far upto 10th July has been 19% above the LPA. For the first time this year, monsoon hit almost every part of Rajasthan th on 8 July. Western Rajasthan, which remained dry till now, also received mild to moderate showers. (Source: Times of India). Light to moderate rain occurred at many places in Ajmer, Jaipur, Bharatpur, Kota, Alwar, Karauli, Bhilwara and other districts. Likewise mild showers were witnessed in the western districts including Jodhpur, Jaisalmer, Barmer, Churu and Bikaner. Bikaner witnessed a maximum rain as it recorded a rain of 90 mm. The Met office in its forecast said that southwest monsoon will gain momentum in the next two days. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 27 June, 2013 stood at 3.4 lakh hectares compared with 46000 hectares sown last year.
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Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 7060 7130 5420 5350 19-Jul-13 70 0 20-Aug-13 -1640 -1710 0 -

as on July 16, 2013 20-Sep-13 -1710 -1780 -70 0 as on July 16, 2013 20-Aug-13 -4430.05 -4980 0 20-Sep-13 -4260.05 -4810 170 0 as on July 15, 2013 Stocks as on 13th July 59 81 Qty in Process 0 0

NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 19950.05 20500 15520 15690 19-Jul-13 549.95 0 -

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Stocks as on 15th July 59 121 Qty in Process 0 0

Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar prices are expected to decline in the coming days on expectations that monsoon will gain momentum further in the largest guar growing state of Rajasthan, Higher sowing and thereby higher output may keep sentiments weak in the near term.

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 17, 2013 Support 5230-5340 5230-5340 15100-15350 15170-15420 Resistance 5550-5650 5550-5650 15800-16000 15900-16100
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com