Energy in Developing Countries January 1991

OTA-E-486 OTA-E-486 NTIS order IIPB91-133694 NTIS order #PB91-133694

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ENERGY I N DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

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Recommended itatio Re commended C Citati on n:: U.S. Congress, U.S. Congress, Office Office of of Technology Technology Assessment, Assessment, Energy Energy in Developing Developing Countries, Countries, Printing Office, (Washington, DC: DC: U.S. U.S. Government Government Printing Office, January January 1991). OTA-E-486 (Washington,

For F or sale sale by by the the Superintendent Superintendent of of Documents Documents U.S. Government U.S. Government Printing Printing Office, Office, Washington, Washington, DC DC 20402-9325 20402-9325 (order in the the back of this this rep report). (o rder form form can can be be found found in back of ort).

Foreword Foreword
This report This report was was prepared prepared in in the the course course of of the the ongoing ongoing OTA OTA Assessment, Assessment, Fueling out in Development: Energy Energy and and Technology in Developing Countries, which is being being carried carried o ut in response resp onse to to requests requests from from the the Senate Senate Committee Committee on on Governmental Governmental Affairs; Affairs; the the House House Committee of the the House C ommittee on on Energy Energy and and Commerce; Commerce; the the Subcommittee Subcommittee on on Energy Energy and and Power Power of House Committee C ommittee on on Energy Energy and and Commerce; Commerce; the the Subcommittee Subcommittee on on Human Human Rights Rights and and International International Organizations of the the House Committee on Foreign Affairs; Organizati ons and and the the Subcommittee Subcommittee on on Africa Africa of House C ommittee o nF oreign Aff airs; the Subcommittee the the Subcommittee on on International International Development, Development, Finance, Finance, Trade Trade and and Monetary Monetary Policy Policy of of the House of the the Senate Environment and Publi Public H ouse Banking Banking Committee; Committee; and and individual individual members members of Senate Envir onment and c Works the Congressional W orks Committee; Committee; the the House House Select Select Committee Committee on on Hunger; Hunger; and and the Congressional Competitiveness C ompetitiveness Caucus. Caucus. These committees OTA the role technology in These committees and and subcommittees subcommittees asked asked OT A to to examine examine the role of of te chnology in providing their economic social pr oviding cost cost effective effective energy energy services services that that poor poor countries countries need need for for their economic and and s ocial devel opment, wwhile minimizing adverse adverse environmental environmental impacts. impacts. The The committees committees were were development, h i l e minimizing parti cularly interested interested in analysis of U.S. role role in acilitating the option of ch particularly in an an analysis of the the U.S. in f facilitating the ad adoption of su such te chnologies. The The overall overall assessment assessment is is scheduled scheduled for for completion completion in 1991. This This report, report, the the f irst technologies. in 1991. first of two, was was prepared prepared in in response response to to the the requesting requesting committees committees interest interest in ceiving an of two, in re receiving an interim interim pr oduct. It It examines examines how how energy energy is is supplied supplied and and used used in oping co untries, and ow energy product. in devel developing countries, and h how energy use is linked linked with with economic economic and and social social development development and and environmental environmental quality. use is quality.

OT A received received substantial substantial help help from from many many organizations organizations and and individuals individuals in the course course of OTA in the of preparing this report. report. We We are are very very grateful grateful for for the the efforts efforts of of the projects contractors, contractors, who who preparing this the projects prepared parts of of the the background background analysis; analysis; members members of of the advisory panel; panel; and and workshop workshop prepared parts the advisory parti cipants, who who provided provided guidance guidance and and extensive extensive critical critical reviews; reviews; and and the the many many additional additional participants, reviewers who gave gave their their time time to to ensure ensure the the accuracy accuracy of of this analysis. reviewers who this analysis.

U J OHN H . G IBBONS U JOHN H. GIBBONS Director Director

Ill

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Advisory PanelEnergy and Technology in Developing Countries

Harry G. Harry G. Barnes, Barnes, Jr., Jr., Chairman Languages and and Area Area Studies Studies Consortium Consortium Critical Languages Irma Adelman Irma Adelman Department of Department of Economics Economics University of University of California, California, Berkeley Berkeley Jeffrey Je ffrey Anderson Anderson Institute of Institute of International International Finance Finance Edward S. Edward S. Ayensu Ayensu Pan-African Pan -African Union Union for for Science Science and and Technology Technology Gerald Barnes Barnes General Motors Corp. Corp. General Motors R.K. Pachauri R.K. Pachauri Tata Energy Institute Tata Energy Research Research Institute D. Lou D. Lou Peoples Peoples Bechtel Bechtel Power Power Corp. Corp. Gabriel Sanchez-Sierra Gabriel Sanchez-Sierra Organisacion Organisa cion Latino-Americana Latino-Americana de de Energia Energia Kirk R. Kirk R. Smith Smith Environment Envir onment and and Policy Policy Institute Institute East-West East -West Center Center

M ohamed T. T. El-Ashry El-Ashry Mohamed World W orld Resources Resources Institute Institute
Eric T Eri c Helland-Hansen Helland-Hansen United Nations Development Development United Nations Pr ogramme Programme R o h N b o a m t e u r a r

Irving Snyder Irving Snyder Dow D ow Chemical Chemical U.S.A. U.S.A.

somas B. Th B. Steel, Steel, Jr. Jr. Natural Res o ur c es Defense Council Council a l Resources Defense

t obert H. Williams R Williams Center for Energy Energy and and Environmental Environmental Studies Studies Carl N. Hodges Hodges Carl N. C e n t e r for on University University Envir onmental Research Research Laboratory Laboratory P r i n c e Prin Environmental t ocet n University of Arizona Arizona Lu Yingzhong Yingzhong University of L u essio Analysis Inc. Inc. (PAT) (PAI) Donald P r o f e s s i o nProf a lnal Analysis D onald Jest Jest Sun Refining and and Marketing Marketing Co. Co. M o n t a g Mo Yudelman Sun Refining untague e Yudelman

A mory Lovins Lovins Amory W R ocky Mountain Mountain Institute Institute Rocky M ohan Munasinghe Munasinghe Mohan World W orld Bank Bank

o F o u

r n

l d

Wildlife Fund Fund and and The The Conservation Conservation d World Wildlife t i Foundati o n on Eugene W. Zeltmann Zeltmann Eugene W. General Electric General Electric Co. Co.

Henry Norman Henry Norman O b s Volunteers Vo lunteers In Technical Technical Assistance Assistance
Waafas W aafas Ofosu-Amaah Ofosu-Amaah WorldWIDE W orldWIDE

e Observer r David Jhirad David U.S. Agency for for International International Development Development U.S. Agency

NOTE: OTA appreciates and and is is grateful grateful f for the valuable valuable assistance assistance and and thoughtful thoughtful critiques critiques provided NOTE: O T A appreciates o r the provided by b y the the advisory advisory panel panel members. members. The panel does does not, not, however, however, necessarily necessarily approve, approve, disapprove, disapprove, or endorse this this report. assumes full The panel o r endorse report. OTA O TA assumes f u l l responsibility responsibility for f o r the the report and the the accuracy accuracy o of its contents. contents. report and f its

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OTA Project Project Staff-Energy in Developing Countries

Lionel Li onel S. Johns, Johns, Assistant Assistant Director, OTA OTA Energy, Materials, and and International Security Division
Peter D. Blair, Energy Energy and and Materials Program Program Manager Manager

Project Staff Project Staff

Joy Dunkerley, Project Director Samuel Analyst Samuel F. Baldwin, Senior Analyst Karen Karen Larsen, Senior Senior Analyst Analyst S. Komor, Komor, Analyst Analyst R obin Roy, Roy, Senior Senior Analyst P a Paul Robin u l S. Nina Goldman, r oo n n Burke, Research Research Assistant Assistant Goldman, Research Research Assistant Assistant S h aShar R oger Chin, Chin, Summer Summer Intern Intern Roger Administrative Staff Staff
Chapman Tina Brumfield L i l l Lillian Tina Brumfield i a n Chapman Linda ong Linda L Long

Contributors R osina Bierbaum, Bierbaum, OTA OTA Oceans Oceans and and Environment Environment Program Program Rosina Gret chen Kolsrud, Kolsrud, OTA OTA Industry, Industry, Technology, Technology, and and Employment Employment Program Program Gretchen Levenson, OTA OTA Oceans Oceans and and Environment Environment Program Program Howard Levenson, Edward MacDonald, OTA OTA Food Food and and Renewable Renewable Resources Resources Program Program Edward MacDonald, Contractors
Russell deLucia deLucia deLucia deLu cia and and Associates, Associates, Inc. Inc. Cambridge, MA A Cambridge, M Ashok A shok Desai Desai Nati onal Council Council of of Applied Applied Economic Economic Research Research National New Delhi, India India New Delhi, K.G. Duleep and and Sergio Sergio Ostria Ostria K.G. Duleep Energy and Environmental Environmental Analysis, Analysis, Inc. Inc. Energy and A rlington, VA VA Arlington, A hmad Faruqui Faruqui and and Greg Greg Wikler Wikler Ahmad Barakat and Chamberlain, Chamberlain, Inc. Inc. Barakat and Oakland, CA Oakland, CA Howard H oward Geller Geller A merican Council Council for for an an Energy Energy Efficient Efficient American E conomy Economy W ashington, DC DC Washington, Theodore J. Gorton Theodore J. Gorton Petroleum Petr oleum Consultant Consultant Bethesda, MD Bethesda, MD Donald D onald Hertzmark Hertzmark Independent Consultant Independent Consultant W ashingt o n, DC Washington, DC
Virendra V irendra Kothari Kothari Energy and Environmental Environmental A nalysis, In c. Energy and Analysis, Inc. A rlington, VA VA Arlington, Karin Lis sakers Karin Lissakers C olumbia University University Columbia New York, New York, N NY Y A rjun Makhi jani Arjun Makhijani Institute for Energy Energy and Environmental Research Research Institute for and Environmental Tak oma Park, Park, MD MD Takoma Peter Meier and John Peter John Lee Lee Internati o nal Devel o pment and Energy Energy International Development and A ssociates, Inc. Inc. Associates, W ashington, DC DC Washington, Henry Peskin Henry Peskin Edgevale Associates, Inc. Inc. Edgevale Associates, Silver Spring, MD MD Silver Spring, Vaclav V aclav Smil University of Manit oba University of Manitoba W innipeg, Canada Canada Winnipeg,

Environmental Problems and Priorities in Developing Countries Workshop Participants, Participants, April 19, 1990
Michael Mi chael Adler Adler U.S. Environmental U.S. Environmental Protection Protection Agency Agency Lutz Baehr Lutz Baehr United Nations United Nations Center for Center for Science Science and and Technology Technology in in Development Development Leonard Le onard Berry Berry Florida Fl orida Atlantic Atlantic University University Robert R obert Goodland Goodland World W orld Bank Lupe Guinand Lupe Guinand BIOMA BIOM A Venezuela V enezuela Robert R obert Ichord Ichord U.S. Agency U.S. Agency for for International International Development Development

A Al l Binger Binger Conservation C onservation Foundation/Biomass Foundation/Biomass Users Users Network Network Janet Welsh Welsh Brown Brown World W orld Resources Resources Institute Institute
Lalanath de de Silva Silva Environmental Environmental Foundation, Foundation, Ltd. Ltd. Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Clarence Claren ce Dias Dias Internati onal Center Center for for Law Law in in Development Development International

Kari Keipi Kari Keipi Inter -American Development Development Bank Bank Inter-American
Ananda A nanda Krishnan Krishnan United United Nations Nations Center r Science Science and and Technology Technology in opment Center fo for in Devel Development Russell Mittermeier Russell Mittermeier Conservation C onservation International International Hind Sadek Hind Sadek WorldWIDE WorldWIDE

Paul Dulin Dulin A ss oc iates in in Rural Rural Development Development Associates

John J ohn J. Gaudet Gaudet U.S. Agency for for International International Development Development U.S. Agency

Paul Schwengels Paul Schwengels U.S. Environmental Protection Protection Agency Agency U.S. Environmental
Thomas Th omas B. B. Steel, Steel, Jr. Jr. Natural Resources Resources Defense Defense Council Council

NOTE: OTA grateful valuable assistance assistance a and critiques p provided by workshop participants. T The views NOTE: O T A i is s g r a t e f u l ffor o r tthe h e valuable n d tthoughtful h o u g h t f u l critiques rovided b y tthe he w o r k s h o p participants. h e views expressed this O OTA however, are are the the sole sole responsibility responsibility of Office of Assessment. expressed iin n this T A rreport, e p o r t , however, o f the the Office o f Technology Technology Assessment.

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Outside Reviewers Outside Reviewers

Irma Adelman Irma Adelman Department of Department of Economics Economics University of University of California, California, Berkeley Berkeley Dilip Ahuja Dilip Ahuja Environmental Environmental Protection Protection Agency Agency Jeffrey Je ffrey Anderson Anderson Institute of Institute of international international Finance Finance Edward S. Edward S. Ayensu Ayensu Pan-African Pan -African Union Union for for Science Science and and Technology Technology Philip O'Keefe Philip OKeefe ETC (U.K.) ETC (U.K.) R.K. Pachauri R.K. Pachauri Tata Energy Institute Tata Energy Research Research Institute Gabriel Sanchez-Sierra Gabriel Sanchez-Sierra Organisacion Organisa cion Latino-Americana Latino-Americana de de Energia Energia Anjali A njali Sastry Sastry Rocky R ocky Mountain Mountain Institute Institute

Harry G. Barnes, Barnes, Jr. Jr. Harry G. Criti cal Languages Languages and and Area Area Studies Studies Consortium Consortium Critical Martin J. Bernard III A rgonne National National Laboratory Laboratory Argonne
Vic V ic Fazio Fazio Member of Congress Congress Member of Robert R obert Goodland Goodland World W orld Bank Bank Eric e lland-Hansen Eri cH Helland -Hansen United Nations Development Development Programme Programme United Nations

Jayant Jayant Sathaye Sathaye Lawren ce Berkeley Berkeley Laboratory Laboratory Lawrence Lee Schipper Lee Schipper Lawren ce Berkeley Berkeley Laboratory Laboratory Lawrence
Kirk R. Smith Kirk Envir onment and and Policy Policy Institute Institute Environment East-West East -West Center Center

Irving Snyder Irving Snyder Dow D ow Chemical Chemical U.S.A. U.S.A.

Thomas Th omas B. B. Steel, Steel, Jr. Jr. Natural Resources Natural Resources Defense Defense Council Council Carlos Carl os Suarez Suarez Institut o de de Economia Economia Energetica Energetica Instituto Fundacion Funda cion Bariloche Bariloche Pamela Wentworth Pamela Wentworth Be chtel Power Power Corp. Corp. Bechtel Thomas Th omas J. Wilbanks Wilbanks Oak Ridge National National Laboratory Laboratory Oak Ridge Robert R obert H. Williams Williams Center for Energy Energy and and Environmental Environmental Studies Studies Center for Prin ceton University University Princeton

Carl N. Hodges Hodges Carl N. Envir onmental Research Research Laboratory Laboratory Environmental University of Arizona Arizona University of
David Jhirad Jhirad U.S. Agency for for International International Development Development U.S. Agency Donald D onald Jones Jones Oak Ridge National National Laboratory Laboratory Oak Ridge Donald D onald Jest Jest Sun Refining and and Marketing Marketing Co. Co. Sun Refining Dolores D olores Kern Kern National Nati onal Coal Coal Association Association Barbara Lausche Lausche World W orld Bank Bank

Lu Yingzhong Lu Yingzhong Pr ofessional Analysis Analysis Inc. Inc. (PAI) (PAI) Professional M ontague Yudelman Yudelman Montague World W orld Wildlife Wildlife Fund and The Conservation Conservation Foundation F oundation Eugene W. Zeltzmann Zeltzmann Eugene W. General Electric General Electric Co. Co.

Henry Norman Henry Norman Volunteers Vo lunteers In Technical Technical Assistance Assistance
Waafas W aafas Ofosu-Amaah Ofosu-Amaah World WIDE WorldW IDE

NOTE: is grateful The this NOTE: OTA O TA is grateful for for the the valuable valuable assistance assistance and and thoughtful thoughtful critiques critiques provided provided by by the the reviewers. reviewers. T h e views v i e w s expressd e x p r e s s d in in t his OTA however, are are the the sole sole responsibility responsibility o of the Office Office o of Technology Assessment. Assessment. O TA rreport, e p o r t , however, f the f Technology wi

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Contents Contents
Chapter P a g e

Page

Chapter I1:: Introduction Chapter Introduction and and Overview Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 ........................ 3 Chapter 2: Chapter 2: Energy Energy and and Economic Economic Development Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5. . . . . . . . . . . 25 Chapter 3: Chapter 3: Energy Energy Services Services in in Developing Developing Countries Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 .............7 . . . . . . . . . . 47 Chapter 4: . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 . . . . . . . . . . 93 Chapter 4: Energy Energy Supplies Supplies in in the the Developing Developing World World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Chapter 5: in Developing Countries 1 . 111 Chapter 5: Energy Energy and and the the Environment Environment in Developing C ountries ...........:. . .1. . . . 1 .....

. . . . . . . . . . . . .3. . . . . . . . . . . . 7 . . . . . . . . 137 Appendix A ppendix A: A: Glossary Glossary of of Energy Energy Units Units . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

.,. WI WI

Chapter 1 Chapter

Introduction and and Overview Overview Introduction

Contents Contents
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 ........................ 3 The Purpose of of This This Assessment Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 The Developing The Developing World World and and the the Industrialized Industrialized World World . . . . . . . . . . . .4. . , . . . . .. 4 ............. 5 Similarities and Similarities and Differences Differences Among Among Developing Developing Countries Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 The Developing in Global The Developing World World in Global Energy Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 .................... 7 Analytic A nalytic Focus Focus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 ................................ 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Overview of the Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Overview of the Report 1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 P opulation Growth Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 E conomic Development Development . . * . . . . 1. . * . . . . 1. . . . . . 11 Economic Energy Supply Constraints Constraints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Energy Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Financial Finan cial Constraints Constraints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Bi omass Supply Supply Constraints Constraints . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Biomass Instituti onal Constraints Constraints on on Rapid Rapid Expansion Expansion in Energy Supplies Supplies . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . .4. . . . 14 Institutional in Energy . . . . . . . 15 Envir onmental Degradation Degradation in in Developing Developing Countries Countries . . . . . . . . . . . .1. . . . . . . . . .5 Environmental Greenh ouse Gases Gases and and Developing Developing Countries Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 . . . . . . . . . 17 Greenhouse Pr ospects for for Efficiency Efficiency Improvements Improvements in in Energy Energy Production Production and and Use Use . . . . . . 1 . . . . . .8 . . . . 18 Prospects A ppendix 1 A: Economic, Economic, Social, Social, and and Energy Energy Indi cators fo r Devel oping C ountries . .2. . 0 20 Appendix IA: Indicators for Developing Countries
Introduction Intr oduction

Page Page

Figures
Figure

Page g e ........... 4 1-1. Differences Between Between Developing Developing and and Industrial Industrial Nations Nations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 FL Differences 1 -2.1985 Energy Energy Consumption, Consumption, Industrial Industrial and and Developing Developing Region Region Fuel 1-2.1985 Fuel Mix Mix . . . . . . .8. . . . 8 1 -3. Commercial Commercial Energy Energy Consumption, Consumption, 1973, 1973, 1985, 1985, and and 2020 2020 . . . . . . . . .1. . . . . . . . 0 . . . . . . 10 I-3. 1 -4. Per-Capita Per-Capita Commercial Commercial Energy Energy Consumption, Consumption, 1973, 1973, 1985, 1985, and 1-4. and 2020 2020 . . . . . . 1. . . . . 0. . 10 1 -5. Suspended Suspended Particulate Particulate Matter Matter Levels Levels in Selected Cities, Cities, 1980-84 1980-84 . . . . . .1. . . . . .5 . . . 15 1-5. in Selected ...........6 . . . . . . . . 16 1-6. 1 -6. Sulfur Sulfur Dioxide Dioxide Levels Levels in in Selected Selected Cities, Cities, 1980-84 1980-84 . . . . . . . . . . .1
P a

Tables Tables
Page P a g e Table 1 -1. Heterogeneity Heterogeneity o of the Developing Developing World: World: Social, Social, Economic, Economic, 1-1. f the and Energy Indicators Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 and Energy ....... 7 1 -2. Commercial Commercial Energy Energy Import Import Dependence Dependence in in Developing Developing Countries Countries . . . . . . . . . 7 1-2. ........................ 8 1 -3.1985 Primary Primary Energy Energy Supplies Supplies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1-3.1985 1 -4. Largest Largest Energy Energy Consumers, Consumers, 1987 1987 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1-4. . . . . . . . . . . .2. . . . . . 12 1 -5. Passenger Passenger Fleet Fleet Annual Annual Growth Growth in in Selected Selected Countries Countries . . . . . . . . . . 1 1-5. 1 -6. Electric Electric Appliance Appliance Ownership Ownership in in Urban Urban Areas Areas . . . . . . . . . . . .1 . . . . . . . . . . . .2 . . . . . . . . . 12 1-6. 1 -7. Energy Energy Imports, Imports, Debt Debt Service, Service, and and Export Export Earnings Earnings for for 1-7. Sele cted Developing Developing Countries, Countries, 1987 1987 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3. . . . . . . . . . . 13 Selected 1 -8. Estimated Estimated Annual Annual Energy Energy Investment Investment as as a a Percentage Percentage of of Annual Annual Total Total 1-8. . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 . . . . . . . . . . 14 Publi c Investment Investment During During the the Early 1980s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Public Early 1980s

Chapter 1 Chapter

Introduction and Introduction and Overview Overview

Introduction Introduction
Energy use Energy use in in developing developing countries countries has has risen risen more more than fourfold than fourfold over over the the past past three three decades decades and and is is expected in the expe cted to to continue continue increasing increasing rapidly rapidly in the future. future. The increase The increase in in the the services services that that energy energy provides provides is is necessary ne cessary and and desirable, desirable, since since energy energy services services are are essential for economic economic growth, growth, improved improved living living essential for standards, and to to provide provide for for increased increased human standards, and human p opulations. B But finding the the energy energy supplies supplies to to populations. u t finding pr ovide these these services services could could cause cause major major economic economic provide and social problems. problems. For For many many of of the the developing developing and social co untries, much much of of the the additional additional energy energy needed needed will will countries, be supplied by by imported imported oil, oil, and and rising rising oil oil imports imports be supplied will further burden burden those those countries countries already already saddled saddled will further with high oil oil import import bills. bills. Similarly, Similarly, building building dams dams with high o r powerplants powerplants to to meet meet higher higher demands demands for for electricelectricor ity could push push these these nations nations even even deeper deeper into into debt. debt. ity could Energy development and and use use also also contribute contribute to to local local Energy development envir onmental damage damage iin developing countries, countries, environmental n developing in cluding record record levels levels of of air pollution in some including air pollution in some urban areas. areas. and poverty, and poverty, and and better better environmental environmental quality. quality. This This strategy also strategy also holds holds benefits benefits for for the the richer richer countries. countries. The developing The developing countries countries are are important important trading trading partners for rapid economic partners for the the United United States. States. More More rapid economic growth in these stimulate U.S. U.S. gr owth in these countries countries could could stimulate exports, f energy exp orts, including including exports exports o of energy technology technology pr products, oducts, and, and, therefore, therefore, could could benefit benefit the the U.S. U.S. trade trade balan ce. Improved Improved energy energy technologies technologies can can slow slow the the balance. rate of in crease in greenhouse gas gas emissions-a emissions-a rate of increase i n greenhouse gl obal benefit. benefit. global

The Assessment The Purpose of of This This Assessment

This report is This report is part part of of an an assessment assessment entitled entitled Fueling Development: Development: Energy Energy and and Technology Technology in "Fueling in the Developing Countries, Countries, requested requested by by the the Senate Senate the Developing Committee C ommittee on on Governmental Governmental Affairs; Affairs; the the House House C ommittee on on Energy and Commerce; Commerce; the comCommittee Energy and the Sub Subcommittee n Energy and Power Power of ouse C ommitmittee o on Energy and of the the H House Committee on Energy Energy and and Commerce; Commerce; the the Subcommittee Subcommittee on on tee on Human Rights and and International International Organizations Organizations and and Human Rights the Subcommittee of the House Committhe Subcommittee on on Africa Africa of House C ommittee on Foreign Foreign Affairs; Affairs; the the Subcommittee Subcommittee o n Inter tee on on Internati onal Development, Development, Finance, Finance, Trade Trade and and MoneMonenational tary Policy of of the House Banking Banking Committee; Committee; and and tary Policy the House individual members individual members of of the Senate Senate Environment Environment and and Public the H House Select Publi c Works Works Committee, Committee, the ouse Sele ct ComCommittee on Hunger, Hunger, and and the Congressional C ompetimittee on the Congressional Competitiveness Caucus. tiveness Caucus. The Office of of Technology Technology Assessment Assessment (OTA) (OTA) The Office was asked t to to technolwas o examine examine the the extent extent t o which which te chnolo gy c an pr o vide the energy servi c es that devel oping ogy can provide the energy services that developing co untries need fo r e co n o mi c and s oc ial devel o pment countries need for economic and social development in a cost-effective cost-effective and and socially socially viable viable manner, manner, while while in a minimizing the adverse envir o nmental impa c ts ; and minimizing the adverse environmental impacts; and to role of the the United States States in a acceleratt o evaluate the r ole of ccelerating adoption of ch technologies technologies by oping ing the the adoption of su such by devel developing countries. co untries. This report, the the frost frost pr oduct of assessment, This report, product of the the assessment, examines how energy energy is urrently supplied examines how is c currently supplied and and used used in developing co untries and ow energy in the the developing countries and h how energy is is linked linked with economic and and social social development development and with economic and the the quality of the the environment. environment. Our Our emphasis emphasis is quality of is primar primarily on the present status oping co untries, and ily on the present status of of devel developing countries, and co ncerns about about c urrent energy energy trends. trends. This This rep ort is concerns current report is intended to provide provide an an introduction introduction t o the the problems, problems, intended to to c hallenges, and and opportunities opportunities associated associated with prochallenges, with pro--3 3

The rapid growth growth of of energy energy use use in in developing developing The rapid co untries has has wide wide impacts. impacts. The The economic economic developdevelopcountries ment process has has traditionally traditionally been been accompanied accompanied by by ment process rapid increases in in oil oil demand, demand, which, which, together together with with rapid increases rising demand in in the the industrial industrial countries, countries, contribute contribute rising demand t o upward upward pressures pressures on on world world oil oil prices. prices. High High levels levels to of indebtedness in in the the developing developing countries, countries, partly partly of indebtedness energy -related, have have already already contributed contributed to to instabilinstabilenergy-related, ity in the the international international money money and and banking banking system. system. ity in Rapid increases iin fossil fuel fuel use use in developing Rapid increases n fossil in developing co untries also also represent represent a a growing growing contribution contribution to to countries the increase in local and and regional regional air ollution as as the increase in local air p pollution well as atmospheric atmospheric concentrations concentrations of of greenhouse greenhouse well as gases such as as carbon carbon dioxide dioxide ( CO2). International International gases such (CO). e fforts to to control control greenhouse greenhouse gas gas emissions emissions require require efforts a ctive participation participation by by developing developing countries. countries. Many Many active devel oping countries countries could could be be adversely adversely affected affected by by developing c limate change, change, some some much much more more than than most most indusindusclimate trial nations. nations. A n economically economically and and environmentally environmentally sound sound An appr oach to to energy energy development development offers offers potentially potentially approach large benefits both both for for the the developing developing countries countries and and large benefits for It c can contribute to fo r the the rest of the world. world. It an co ntribute t o e conomic growth growth in in the the developing developing countries, countries, leadleadeconomic ing to higher higher living living standards, standards, reduction reduction of of hunger ing to hunger

4 Energy in in Developing Developing Countries

Figure I-IDifferences viding energy energy services services for for economic economic and and social social Figure l-lDifferences Between Developing and Industrial Nations (developing average Industrial (developing nation nation average development n the devel opment iin the developing developing countries. countries. These These as a a share share of of lndustrlal* industrial* nation nation average) average) as issues are examined under four broad topic areas: are examined under four broad topic areas: energy and economic economic development development (ch. (ch. 2); 2); energy Real GDP Real GDP per capita per capita services servi ces (ch. (ch. 3); 3); energy energy supplies supplies (ch. (ch. 4); 4); and energy report use and the environment environment (ch. (ch. 5). 5). A subsequent rep ort Commercial energy energy OTA's will present the results of OT As assessment of Commercial nsumption consumption te chnologies that that can can potentially potentially improve improve the the effieffi- c o technologies per capita ciency c b energy production and use use in developdeveloppien ecy r of both coth a energy p i t production a ing countries; countries; an an examination examination of the technology technology Adult literacy Adult literacy trans fer process; process; and and ways ways iin which Congress Congress can can transfer n which help promote promote the the rapid rapid adoption adoption of of such such policies. policies.
Life expectancy Life expectancy

The Developing World and the Industrialized World World

W e largely largely follow follow the the definition definition of of "developing" developing We countries-lowco untries-low- and and middle-income middle-income countries countries (fur(further divided into into lower lower middle middle and and upper upper middle middle ther divided co untries)---used by by the the World World Bank' Bankl ( see app. app. 1 A countries)---used (see IA fo ra a list list of of these these countries), countries), including including all all of of the for the countries a t i n America, co untries of Africa, Africa, L Latin America, and Asia, Asia, ex cluding Japan.' Japan.2 excluding There are wide wide differences differences in in average average indicators indicators There are of social and and economic economic conditions conditions between between developdevelopof social ing and industrial industrial countries countries (figure (figure 1-1). l-l). ing and 1. citizens of of (OECD) (OECD) countries countries have have 1. Social: The citizens a longer life life expectancy expectancy (76 (76 years, years, compared compared a longer with an average average of of 62 62 in in developing developing countries), countries), with an largely due to to lower lower infant infant mortality mortality rates rates (9 (9 per per largely clue 1,000 live births births compared compared with with 71 71 in in developdevelop1,000 live ing countries). A A much much larger larger share share of of the ing countries). the

0% 2 5 % 0% 25%

5 0 50% %

7 5 75% % 1 0 0 100%. % .

How Theaverage values How to to Interpret interpret thls this flgure. figure. Theaverage values for for the the industrial industrial countries countries are assigned 100 in all cases. The values values for for the the developing developing countries are expressed as a share share of 100. For example, example, average life expectancy in the industrial nations nations is is 76 76 years nations 62 82 percent years and in the developing nations 62 years, years, or 82 percent of of the the industrial industrial country level. Industrial excludes the based on "Industrial excludes the U. U. S. S. S. S. R.; based on weighted weighted average average of of high-income market economies. economies. high-income market SOURCE: SOURCE: United Nations, Human DevelopmenfReport DevelopmenfReport 199a 199a World World Bank Bank WorldDevelopment Report. WoridDevelopment Report.

p opulation has has access access t o secondary secondary and population to and higher higher education edu cation and health care. care.
3 2. Average per-capita per-capita iin mes ex2. Economic: Average n co co m e( s 4

purchasing power power parities ) are ore pressed in in purchasing parities') are m more 3 pressed than eight times higher in OECD co untries than than eight times higher in OECD countries than (exin the developing developing countries. countries. This This difference difference in in the in in come levels levels reflects reflects major major differences differences in income in e conomic structure, structure, particularly particularly the the higher higher economic share of agri c ulture in t o tal pr o du c ti o n share of agriculture in total production in in the the devel oping countries. countries. A much l ower share developing A much lower share of of

1989 (New NY: Oxford Is m of developing countries is based p on income levels. This ranking system is rather arbitrary, if all the 2 f of are ranked ranked by by ascending ascending level level of obvious gap countries of the the world world are of per-capitairtcome, there there is is no no obvious gap in in the the series series to to demarcate demarcate the the two two groups groups of of countries. countries. T oWo The World Theh r l d Bank Bank distinguishes distinguishes six six categories categories of of counties: counties: low-income, low-income, lower-middle-income, lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income, upper-middle-income, high-income high income oil-exporters, oil-exporters, r industrial market economies, including industrial market economies, including OECD as as a a subset, and and non-reporting "non-reporting non-members non-members" (the (the U.S.S.R., U.S.S.R., North North Korea, East East Germany, ( ermany, Angola, e e Bulgaria, Bulgaria, Albania, Mongolia, and and Namibia). Namibia). The The group group of of developing developing countries countries (low(low- and anomiddle-income and and upper-rniddle-income upper-middle-income countries) countries) does doesnot not d x the United United Arab include Saudi include Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and and the Arab Emirates Emirates by by virtue virtue of of their their high high per-capita per-capita income. income. The The World World Bank Bank does, does, however, however, include include as as e a developing countries some East developing countries some East and and West West European European countries, countries, such such as as Poland, Poland, Hungary, Hungary, Yugoslavia, Yugoslavia,Greece, and and Turkey, that that qualify as as developing developing f m countries by countries by virtue virtue of of their their income levels, levels, but, due due to to their their integration integration with with industrial industrial economies economies of of East East and and West West Europe, Europe, do do not not share share other other i p characteristics of characteristics of underdevelopment, and anti are are therefore therefore not not included included in in this this report. Some Some other other COlintlieS are are excluded excluded due due to to lack lack of of reported reported data. data. Where Where n l averages of general economic and social indicators are reported group group of general economic and social indicators are reporteddirectly from from the the World Development Report, Report, these countries countries are are included included in in the the i averages e In more total. analysis, they are excluded. total. more detailed detailed analysis, they are excluded. While While every every effort effort is is made made to to adhere adhere to to these thesedefinitions, it it is is not not always always possible, possible, especially especially when when t In , other sources of other of data data with with slightly slightly different differentdefirtilions are are used. used. i sources W or Gross National Product. The difference between o 3 o t h an t the total output of goods and the national border of a country, whereas GNPm the output of goods and I that r GDPmeasures the total output of goods and services within the national border of a country, whereas GNPmeasures the output of goods andservices o attributable to the the nationals nationals o of wherever that n attributable to fa a country country wherever that activity activity occurs. l f c to convert the GDP of different countries to dollars, average income to 4 d d o higher average developing however, the 1 higher than average developing country country per-capita per-capita income. income. If, If however, the comparison comparison of of income income levels levels is is adjusted adjusted to to take take into inaccount differences differences in in B than e m purchasing power of (i.e., what a unit such as f purchasing power of currencies currencies (i.e., what a unit of of currency currency such as the the dollar dollar will will buy buy in in different different countries) countries) the the gap gap between between average is p e r per-capita - c a p i t a income income a v levels developing and e in levels in developing and OECD countries countries narrows, narrows, and and OECD per-capita per-capita income income levels levels are are 8 8 times rather rather than than 20 20 times times higher tban tban the the developing developing m n e i country average. case, the gap in a country average. In In either either case, the gap in income income levels levels is is substantial. substantial. k ls r , o u k W p s e o iu t r

Chapter 1-Introduction 1 Chapter and Overview

the population population lives in urban areas-37 areas-37 percent percent in the the developing developing countries countries compared compared with 77 percent n the per cent iin the OECD OECD countries. countries. Population Population growth gr owth is is more more rapid in developing developing countries. countries. It is estimated estimated to to double double by 2040, while the population p opulation of the industrial industrial world world will increase increase by only only 15 15 percent percent over over the same same period. period. 3. Energy: The economic economic and and social social contrasts contrasts are are also als o reflected reflected in in energy consumption. consumption. PerPercapita c apita consumption consumption of commercial commercial energy energy (coal, (coal, o il, gas, gas, and and electricity)'in electricity) 5 in the the OECD OECD countries countries oil, is on on average average 10 10 times times higher higher than than in the the devel oping countries. countries. On On the the other other hand, hand, comcomdeveloping mer cial energy energy consumption consumption is increasing increasing much much mercial f aster in in the the developing developing countries. countries. Biomass Biomass faster energy consumption in in the the developing developing councounenergy consumption tries is higher higher than than in in the the OECD OECD countries countries and and tries is pr ovides a a much much higher higher share share of of total total energy energy provides co nsumption. consumption.

Introd uc tco io n iin Per-capita incomes n the upper Per -capita in mes upper middle-income middle-income a n developing devel oping countries countries (e.g., (e.g., Brazil, Argentina, Argentina, AlgeAlged ria, Venezuela, and Korea) Venezuela, Korea) are almost almost seven seven times v low-income higher thanO in the higher low-income countries countries (table (table 1-1).' 1-1). 6 The income The income edifferential diffr erential reflects reflects major major differences differences in v i economic n the upper middle-income e conomic structure. structure. I In middle-income e w has countries, total co untries, industry has a much much larger larger share share in t otal culture a output agriculture a mu much share. India India and and o utput and agri ch llower ower share. 5 ceptions, with atypi China are exceptions, atypically of China ex cally large shares shares of

industry, given their levels of in income. share of of industry, levels of come. The share the otal population population living in urban urban areas areas is much much the t total llower ower in the the low-income low-income countries. countries. For For example, example, in several African countries countries only only about about 10 10 percent percent of several African of 7 the t o tal p o pulati o n is urban dwellers, in co ntrast t o the total population urbaddwellers, contrast to co untries like like Brazil. Brazil, Argentina, Argentina, and and Venezuela, Venezuela, countries wh ose levels levels of of urbanizati on ( about 80 cent of whose urbanization (about 80 per percent of the the p opulation living owns) are o th ose in population living in in t towns) are similar similar t to those in the the industrial countries. industrial countries.

Similarities and Differences Among Developing Countries

The developing country country averages averages shown shown in in figure figure The developing 1 -1, though though adequate adequate to to illustrate illustrate the the broad broad contrasts contrasts 1-1, between developing and and industrial industrial countries, countries, obo bbetween developing scure s cure the wide wide economic economic and social social differences differences am ong developing developing countries. countries. Indeed, Indeed, the the range range of of among di fferences between between LDCs LDCs is is greater greater than that differences than that between many of of them them and and the the industrial industrial countries. countries. between many A generation of of exceptionally exceptionally fast fast economic economic growth growth A generation in the Newly Newly Industrialized Industrialized Countries Countries (the (the NICs), NICs), in the co mbined with with the the slow slow growth, growth, or or in in some some cases, cases, combined e conomic stagnation stagnation and and decline, decline, iin many African African economic n many co untries, has has widened widened the the gap gap among among developing developing countries, co untries. Thus Thus the the problems, problems, energy energy or or otherwise, otherwise, countries. f aced by by a a relatively relatively rich rich and and developed developed country country faced su ch as as Brazil Brazil are are different different from from those those faced faced by by a a such p oor country country like like Ethiopia, Ethiopia, as as are are the the resources resources poor available for their their solution. solution. An An appreciation appreciation of of these these available for di fferences is is necessary necessary for for the the realistic realistic assessment assessment differences of energy technologies. technologies. of energy

Devel oping countries countries also also show show wide wide variations variations Developing in social indicators. indicators. Life Life expectancy expectancy at at birth birth rises rises in social f rom an average of years in ow-income from an average of 54 54 years i n the the l low-income devel oping co untries t o an developing countries to an average average of of 67 67 in in the the upper upper middle -income countries. countries. Infant Infant mortality mortality is is twice twice middle-income as high in in the the low-income low-income countries countries (over (over 100 100 per per as high 1,000 compared with 1,000 births births compared with an an average average of of 50 50 in in the the upper middle-income developing developing countries). countries). India India upper middle-income and China are are again again exceptions: exceptions: in oth countries, countries, and China in b both despite lower average average income, income, indicators indicators of of social social despite lower devel opment are are similar similar to to those those found found in countries development in countries with much higher higher incomes. incomes. The The experien ce of with much experience of these these tw o countries countries testifies testifies t o the ortance of ocial two to the imp importance of s social p olicies in in achieving achieving relatively relatively high high levels levels of ocial policies of s social devel opment despite despite llo ow incomes.8 P opulation development w incomes.' Population gr owth rates rates also also differ differ widely widely among among developing developing growth co untries. I In recent years years these these have have ranged ranged from from countries. n recent ab out 1 1 percent percent annually ome co untries ( e.g., about annually in in s some countries (e.g., China, Uruguay, Korea) Korea) to to over over 3 percent in several China, Uruguay, 3 percent in several African Af rican countries. countries.
The wide variati variations social and e economic The ons in s ocial and conomic co nditions in in developing developing countries countries are are also also reflected reflected conditions in their energy energy use. use. In the upper upper middle income dedein their In the middle income

co energy conventionally applies to gas, and electricity on the basis that they are widely traded in organized markets. 5 These fuels are are distinguished distinguished from These from other other fuels fuels such such as as firewood, charcoal, charcoal, and and animal animal and and crop crop wastes, wastes, which which are are described described as as biomass "biomass" or or T fuels noncommercial fuels. h "noncommercial fuels." The The distinction distinction between between them them can can be be misleading, misleading,particularly in in the the context context of of developing developing countries, countries, as assome some of of the the so-called noncommercial fuels, such such as as firewood firewood and and charcoal charcoal are are also also widely widely traded "noncommercial" fuels, traded in in highly highly organized organized markets. markets. Tominimize this this ambiguity ambiguity we we use use the the term term e biomass energy here. here. "biomass energy" t e also app. 1A. 6

r S of urban populations are based on criteria related to size of settlement and presence of urban characteristics. 7 m e D e v elo p m e n t Programme, Human E Human Development Development Report Report 1990 1990 (New (New a n i s theme is developed further further in in a a recent recent publication publication by by the the United United Nations NationsDevelooment " e s NY: Oxford University University Press, Press, 1990). York, NY: Oxford York, 1990). c a t o l9 i m s S m m o e a e a

Table 1-1Heterogeneity 1 - 1 - H e t e r o g e n e i t y of of the the Developing Developing World: Wo r l d : Social, Economic, E c o n o m i c , and and Energy E n e r g y Indicators Indicators
Low-income and L o w Lower middleLow-income I n d i India a and e r middlemiddle- U p p Upper e r middleY e a r i e s C h i n China a i n c o income m e countries o m e countries Indicators Year c o u n t r countries countries i n c income countries Economic: Economic: GNP per per capita capita ($1987) ($1987) (ppp) (ppp)a . . . . . . 1 . . . . .9 . . . . .8 . . . . .71987 8 4 0 . 840.0 0 9 0 0 . 900.0 0 3 , 0 0 03,000.0 . 0 5 , 4 2 05,420.0 . 0 Share agriculture agriculture in GDP GDP (%) . . . . .7 . . 1987* M rb. . . . . .1. . . . . 9. . . . 8 * 3 3 . 0 3 0 . 0 2 1 . 0 1 0 . 0 10.O* * 33.0 30.0 21.0 C Urban population population as as share share of total (%) (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1987 24.0 33.0 51.0 66.0 d Cars of Populationd. . .1 . . 9 81980* and 1 trucks members 0 * 3 . 2 3.2 3 . 2 3.2 1 9 . 3 9 3 . 3 19.3 93.3 c 9per 1,000 8 7 Social: Social: 2 4 . Life at birth birth (years)' (years)e. . . . . . 1 .....9 . . . . . .8. . . 7 1987 Life 5 4 . 0 6 5 . 0 6 4 . 0 6 7 . 0 54.0 65.0 64.0 67.0 0 expectancy at Infant mortality per 100 100 births' birthsf . . . . . .1 ...... . . . . . 7 1987 9. . . . . 8 1 0 3 . 103.0 0 6 2 . 0 6 1 . 0 5 0 . 0 62.0 61.0 50.0 3 3 Share of age group with secondary education (*/0)9 (%)9 . . . .1. 9 8 6 2 5 . 0 3 9 . 0 5 1 . 0 5 9 . 0 1986 25.0 39.0 51.0 59.0 . 0 Energy: 5 Commercial energy consumption per capita 1 (gigajoules)h . . . . . . . .1. . . . . . . .9 . . . . . . . .8 . . . . . . . .6 . . . 1986 16.3 4 . 9 4.9 1 6 . 3 3 6 . 2 5 8 . 3 36.2 58.3 Total energy consumption per capita (gigajoules)'. (gigajoules)l.. . . 1 . .9 8 energy 6 1 2 . 3 1 8 . 7 4 1 . 7 6 7 . 0 *67.0** * 1986 12.3 18.7 41.7 . j. Share (%} ' . . . . .1. . . . 1986 13.0 of traditional energy in total (%) 9. . . . 8. 6 6 0 . 0 1 3 . 0 1 3 . 0 1 3 . 0 * 13.0** * 60.0 13.0 0

* Estimated. * 6 Estimated. If Brazil Brazil is is excluded, excluded, the the total total per per capita capita energy energy consumption consumption would would be be 62 gigajoules and the share share of traditional traditional energy energy in total 2 percent. percent. 6 SOURCES: aWorld Bank, World Development Report 1989 1989 (New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1969). 1969). Purchasing Purchasing power power parity parity (ppp) (ppp) estimate estimate based based on on data data on on pp. 164 and222. 222. on data in table ' . C ,lbid., table 31. 'Ibid., 0 d d joy Dunkerley and frying Heell, Transport Energy: Determinants and Policy (Washington, DO: DO: Resources for the the Future, Future, September September 1985), table table 5-land appendix table 13. Based on I JoY estimates. Note that that totals totals are are unweighed unweighed averages averages and and the the countries countries included included differ differ slightly slightly from Work/ Work/ Development Development Report 1989. 1989. Note b e table 1. e i World Bank, op. cit., table 1 lbid., table table 32. Ibid., d g Ibid., lbid., table 29 . hibid, table 8. . , 'United Nations, Energy Statistics Yearbook 1986( New York, NY: United Nations, 1988), table table 4 b . r Inese values for the share of traditional energy are muoh lower than those found in field surveys. These These values values are are presented presented herein herein order order to to have have a a consistent consistent data data set. set. Estimates Estimates based on field field surveys surveys suggest suggest that that biomass biomass provides provides one-third one-third of the energy energy used used by developing developing countries countries overall overall (cbs. 3 a on 3 and and 4). 4). s e d o n d a t a i n t

Chapter 1--Introduction 1Introduction and and Overview Overview 7 Chapter 7

Table 1-2-Commercial Energy import Import Dependence in Developing Countries

r o f N u mNumber b e r of Country N u m b e Number of e s e n e renergy g y income c o u n t r icountries in group' groupa e x p o exporters group i n rters 4 Low-income . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 38 4 Low-income China and 2 China and India India . . . . . . . . . . . 2 11 10 Lower middle-income 0 10 Lower middle-income . . . . . 3 . 30 0 6 Upper middle-income . . . . . 1 . 10 6 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 0 2 1 . 80 21
Ind-es all countries for which import dependence data are available. a lnd~es b shares of imports imports in in total total commercial commercial energy energy Consumption. Consumption. b shares
SOURCE: Based on data in the United Nations, 1986 Energy Statistics Yearbook(New 1988). Yearbook(New York, NY: 1988).

Number of Number of energy energy importers importers 34 34 11 20 20 4 4 59 59

High High importers importers (70-100*/0)b (70-100%)b 29 29 0 0 15 15 2 2 46 46

Medium Medium importers importers b (30-70%) (30-70%) b 3 3 0 0 3 3 11 7 7

Low Low importers importers (0-30%)bb (0-30%) 2 2 11 2 2 11 6 6

vel oping countries, countries, per-capita per-capita annual commercial commercial veloping energy consumption consumption (at (at 60 60 gigajoules1 gigajouleslO) is is 12 12 times times ll higher than than in in the the low-income low-income countries countries (5 (5 a GJ l )).. A gain China China and and India India di ffer f rom the ther l owAgain differ from the o other low11 in come countries, countries, with with per-capita per-capita consumption consumption of of income co mmercial energy energy more more than than 3 3 times times higher higher than than commercial o ther low-income low-income countries. countries. Per-capita Per-capita consumption consumption other biomass of traditional bi omass fuels, fuels, on on the other other hand, is generally higher in in the the poorest poorest countries, countries, depending depending generally higher on o n the the biomass biomass resources resources available.' available.12 There are similarly similarly large large variations variations in in energy energy There are res ource endowment. endowment. While While many many countries countries have have resource s ome energy energy resources, resources, three-quarters three-quarters of of the the develdevelsome o ping countries countries depend depend on on imports imports for for part part or or all of oping all of their commercial energy energy supplies supplies (table (table 1-2). 1-2). Levels Levels their commercial of import dependence dependence vary, vary, but but in in many many countries, countries, of import imp orts (almost (almost entirely entirely oil) oil) provide provide nearly nearly all all imports co mmercial energy energy supplies. supplies. Oil Oil imports imports can can be be a a commercial co nsiderable strain strain on on already already tight foreign exexconsiderable tight foreign c hange budgets. budgets. In In several several countries, countries, particularly particularly in in change Af rica and and Central Central America, America, oil oil imports imports represent represent Africa o ver 30 30 percent percent of of foreign foreign exchange exchange earnings earnings from from over exp orts (see (see app. app. IA). 1A). exports Despite these differences differences in in aggregate aggregate indicators, indicators, Despite these there are strong strong similarities similarities among among developing developing there are co untries within within specific specific sectors. sectors. Energy Energy use use in countries in traditi onal villages villages throughout throughout the the developing developing world world traditional is fairly similar similar in terms of of quantity used, source source is fairly in terms quantity used, ( biomass, muscle muscle power), power), and and services services provided provided (biomass,
9

(coo king, subsistence subsistence agri culture). At other end (cooking, agriculture). t the other end of scale, energy energy use conomically well off of the scale, use by the e economically off is also reasonably reasonably similar similar between between developing developing and and is also industrial countries, iin terms of of quantity used (to (to industrial countries, n terms quantity used within actor of r3 ), source source (o il, gas, gas, coal, coal, within a af factor of 2 2o or 3), (oil, ele ctricity), and and services services provided provided (electric (electric lighting lighting electricity), and appliances, industrial industrial goods, goods, private private automoautomoand appliances, biles, etc.). The The large large differences differences between untries biles, etc.). between co countries are o the are then then in in large large part part due due t to the relative relative share share of of the the t otal traditional traditional villagers villagers and and the the economically economically well well total off opulation, and and in rms and off in in the the p population, in the the fo forms and quantities quantities of used by ose wh o are of energy energy used by th those who are making making the the transition transiti on between between these these two two extremes. extremes. The broad broad similarities cific population population sectors sectors imply imply similarities within spe specific that is possible possible t o make make generalizati ons ab out that it i t is to generalizations about te chnology that cable t oa technology that are are appli applicable to a wide wide range range of of o therwise disparate disparate countries. countries. otherwise

The Developing World in 13 Global Energy" Energy

The developing countries countries now now account account fo r about about The developing for 30 cent of obal energy cluding b oth 30 per percent of gl global energy use, use, in including both co mmercial and and traditional traditional energy energy (see (see table table 1-3), 1-3), commercial and owing rapidly. and their their share share is is gr growing rapidly. Their Their use use of of the the di fferent f uels vary : they ccount fo r 85 different fuels vary widely widely: they a account for 85 per cent of of bi omass f uel consumption consumption but nly 23 percent biomass fuel but o only 23 per cent of of co mmercial fuels fuels (oil, (oil, gas, gas, coal, coal, and and percent commercial ele ctricity). The The main sources of r the electricity). main sources of energy energy fo for the devel oping countries countries as as a oup are al, o il, and developing a gr group are co coal, oil, and

'See See footnote 5.

about& content of 8 gallons of gasoline. For 10 18 the United States is is 327 327 million = the A United States million British thermal thermal units units (Btu) or or 343 343 gigajoules. An An exajoule (Pl), or or 10 l i f joules, about the same as a Quad (1.05 1 Quad). 1 Quad). s j go u l e s , i s a b o u t t h e University Of s i a m e a s a tiw g r u to Q o a ( 1 . 0 5 converted to gigajoules at 1 toe toe = converted at d 1 4 41.9 1 . 9 gigajoules. E a l hi@ of ss charcoal for and i1d 2B j B ethanol for cars. r a z for cars. This ethanol This contrasts contrasts with with the the use use of of biomass biomass in in the the poorer poorer countries, countries, as as a a cooking cooking fuel fuel using using traditional traditional technologies. technologies. o a from 14th Congress, Montreal 1989 iL 13Th u n 1989); Statistics Yearbook Yearbook (New e 1989); and the the United United Nations, Nations, 1986 1986 Energy Energy Statistics (New York, NY: NY: 1988), 1988), updated updated to to 1987 1987 by by data data provided provided by by the the UN. Secretariat. Secretariat. ld dand
k e s a e , p t ( w i t a G o e

8 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries Countries

Table 1-3-1985 Primary Energy Supplies (exajoules)

Primary Primary electricity electricity 33.0 33.0 26.6 26.6 6.4 6.4 81% 81% 19*/0 19% Total Total commercial commercial 284.5 284.5 218.7 218.7 65.7 65.7 7770 7770 23% 23% Total Total energy energy 321.3 321.3 224.2 224.2 97.1 97.1 70% 70% 30?40 30?40

Coal Coal World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88.7 88.7 World Industrial countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63.5 25.2 Developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25.2 72% Share of industrial countries . . . . . . . . . . 72% 28% Share of developing countries . . . . . . . . 28%

Oil Oil 104.6 104.6 77.0 77.0 27.7 27.7 74*/0 74% 26% 26%

Gas Gas 58.2 58.2 51.7 51.7 6.5 6.5 89% 89% 11*/0 11%

Biomass Biomass 36.9 36.9 5.5 5.5 31.3 31.3 15*/0 15% 85% 85%

for roughly roughly one-third one-third of of NOTE: As As in in table table 1-1, 1-1, the the values values reported for developing developing country country biomass biomass are too low. low. Field surveys surveys indicate indicate that that biomass biomass accounts accounts for the energy energy used used in in developing developing countries. countries.
SOURCE: World Energy Conference, Global Energy Perspectives 2000-2020, 14th Congress, Montreal 1989 1989). 1989 (Paris: 1989).

Figure 1-21985 1-2-1985 Energy Consumption, Industrial industrial and Developing Region Fuel Mix Figure

Coal Oil 28% 2 6 %

Oil Oil 34% 3 4%

Coal 28%

Gas Primary
electricity y y 7%

BiomaNliss Biomass
fuels fuels 32% 3 2%

Developing Developing nnations ations Total = = 9 97 exajoules 7 exajoules

SOURCE: World Energy Energy Conference, Conference, Global Enea:ly SOURCE: World 14th Congress, Congress, Montreal Montreal 1989 1989 (Paris: (Paris: -. Perspectives 2000-2020 14th 1989). 1989).

bi omass (see (see figure figure 1-2). 1-2). However, However, much much of of the coal biomass the coal is used in India and and China China only. only. The The other other developdevelopis used in India ing countries rely rely heavily heavily on on oil oil and and biomass biomass for for ing countries their energy supplies. supplies. Several Several developing developing countries countries their energy China, India, India, Mexico, Mexico, Brazil, Brazil, and and South South Africa-are Africa-are am ong the the worlds worlds 20 20 largest largest commercial commercial energy energy among co nsumers (see (see table table 1-4). 1-4). China China alone alone accounts accounts for for consumers alm ost 10 10 percent percent of of the the world's worlds total total commercial commercial almost energy use. energy use. Three countries-Chin . a, India, India, and and Brazil Three countries-China, Brazil t ogether account account for for about about 45 45 percent percent of of total total together devel oping country country consumption consumption of of b oth commercommerdeveloping both c ial and and biomass biomass fuels. fuels. And And these these countries countries plus plus four four cial m ore-Indonesia, Mexico. Mexico, Korea, Korea, and and Venezuela-Venezuela-more-Indonesia, a ccount for for 57 57 percent percent of of the the total. total. At At the the other other end end account of the scale scale are are a a large large number number of of small small countries countries of the

that, combined, account account fo r only only a that, combined, for a small small part part of of gl obal consumption. consumption. The The 50 50 countries countries of rica, fo r global of Af Africa, for example, use under under 3 percent of otal w orld commercommerexample, use 3 percent of t total world c ial energy energy consumption. consumption. Concerns Concerns about about global global cial energy use and implications foc us attenti on o n the energy use and its its implications focus attention on the large consumers, but energy needs large consumers, but the the energy needs of of the the small small devel oping nations, nations, though though of of lesser ortance t o developing lesser imp importance to gl obal totals, totals, are are critical critical to to their their development development global pr ospects. prospects. The developing countries countries are are becoming becoming increasincreasThe developing ingly imp o rtant a c t o rs in gl o bal co mmer c ial energy. ingly important actors in global commercial energy. Their share of the t o tal has risen sharply in cent Their share of the total has risen sharply in re recent years (see f igure 1 -3), f rom 17 percent of obal years (see figure 1-3), from 17 percent of gl global co mmercial energy energy in 1973 to to over over 23 percent n ow. commercial in 1973 23 percent now. Despite ch l ower levels -capita Despite their t h e i r mu much lower levels of of per per-capita co mmercial energy energy consumption, consumption, developing developing councouncommercial

\ 4 # 4

Biomass fuels 3% Primary electricity 12%

Gas Gas 23% 2 3%

Industrial nnations ations Industrial Total 2 224 exajoules 24 e xajoules

Chapter l-introduction 1 Chapter and Overview

Table 1-4-Largest 1 Energy Consumers, 1987 4 Per-capita Per-capita m e r c i a l eenergy nergy Total commercial commercial c o m commercial energy consumption consumption c o n consumption sumption L a r g Country ( e x a j o u (exajoules) l e s ) ( g i g a j (gigajoules) o u l e s ) e s t 20 largest commercial energy consumers: Rank E n Rank IU n ited 1 280 1 United . . .8. . .. 68.1 280 e r States . . 6 194 2 U.S.S.R 2 194 U.S.S.R. . . .5 . . .4 ......7 54.7 g y 22 3 China China . . . . 2 . . . .3 . . . .. . . . 5 23.5 22 3 110 C o 4 Japan Japan . . . . .1. . . 3 . . . . .. . . 4 13.4 110 165 West . . .1 . .0 . . .10.0 5 165 5 West 0 n Germany s 85 150 6 United United Kingdom . . . . . . 8.5 150 u 7 Canada 75 291 7 Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.5 291 65 8 India m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 8 India 8 8 61 109 9 France France 109 9 e r . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 60 105 Italy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.0 10 Italy 105 , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 1 1 PPoland os land 53 141 11 141 12 Mexico 41 1 50 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 50 38 231 East 13 East 231 9 Germany . . . . . . . . 3.8 32 201 Australia . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 14 Australia 201 8 32 22 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 15 Brazil 22 16 South Africa . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 32 7 83 South 83
31 Romania . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 17 Romania 31 Netherlands . . . . . . . . . 3.1 18 Netherlands 29 19 Czechoslovakia Czechoslovakia . . . . . . . 2.9 24 20 Spain Spain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 136 136 213 213 185 185 147 147 10 largest developing country energy energy consumers: consumers: 10 largest Rank Rank 1 China 22 22 1 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.5 65 8 2 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 8 41 50 3 Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 50 32 22 4 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 22 32 83 5 South Africa . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 83 22 52 6 South Korea . . . . . . . . . 2.2 52 17 7 Argentina . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7 56 56 16 88 8 Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6 88 14 8 9 Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 8 10 20 10 Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 20

introd c t i o 1-3), n 1 by 2020 (see (seeufigure and this trend is confirmed 14 a n in a large number of of o other studies.' The developing in ther studies. The developing d projected countries are for co untries are to account account fo r almost almost 60 3 ) , a n d projected to O gl vobal increase (over percent per cent (over current current levels) levels) t h i of s the global e r in commercial energy consumption by 2020. China in co mmer c ial co nsumpti o n 2020. China t r e v n id alone accounts for over one-third of this increase. al o ne a cco unts fo r o ver o ne third of this in c rease. i s e w These in increasing shares are are su sufficiently large t to have These creasing shares fficiently large o have c o n f i a major impact on world energy markets. Despite the a major impact on world energy Despite the r mrapid e 9 d of more rate growth m ore of gr owth in energy energy consumption consumption in

developing devel oping countries, countries, their per-capita per-capita consumption consumption of of co commercial mmercial energy will still co continue ntinue t to o be f far ar bel ow the the levels levels in in industrial industrial countries countries (see (see f igure below figure 1-4). 1 -4).

Analytic Focus
The A study Theanalysis analysis presented presented in in this this OT OTA study has has three imp o rtant f eatures. First, rather than co n c enthree important features. First, rather than concentrating on energy energy supplies, supplies, the analysis focuses focuses on on trating on the analysis the services energy energy provides. provides. The The reason reason fo r this the services for this appr oach is is simple. simple. Energy Energy is not used used fo r its wn approach is not for its o own sake, r the services it ossible-sake, but but rather rather fo for the services it makes makes p possible-coo king, heating heating water, cooling a ouse, heating cooking, water, cooling ah house, heating an an industrial boiler, transporting transporting freight freight and and people. people. industrial boiler, Further, there may fferent means Further, there may be be many many di different means of of pr o viding a desired servi c e, ea c h with its o wn co sts providing a desired service, each with its own costs and benefits. For For example, example, transport transport is provided in and benefits. is provided in a a number of ways bi c y c le, m o t o r c y c le, c ar, bus, number of ways-bicycle, motorcycle, car, bus, light or air craft. The The consumer consumer chooses chooses am ong light rail, rail, or aircraft. among these a cco rding t o su c h c riteria as co st, co m fo rt, these according to such criteria as cost, comfort, co nvenien c e, speed, and even aestheti c s. W ithin convenience, speed, and even aesthetics. Within these consumer co nstraints, a a more more e fficient c ar may these consumer constraints, efficient car may be preferable to to increasing increasing re finery c apacity in rder be preferable refinery capacity in o order t o reduce reduce capital capital and /or operating operating costs, costs, o r because because to and/or or of envir o nmental bene f its. M o re than j ust engineer of environmental benefits. More than just engineering and e co n o mi c s must be co nsidered, in c luding ing and economics must be considered, including s ocial, cultural, cultural, and and instituti onal factors. factors. Such Such f acsocial, institutional fact o rs are m o re readily in c luded in a servi c es f rame tors are more readily included in a services framew o rk than in a co nventi o nal energy supply analysis. work than in a conventional energy supply analysis.

NOTE: Data Data for for the the top top 10 10 developing developing country country energy energy consumers consumers include include only countries countries listed listed in in app. app. 1A. 1A. SOURCE: United United Nations secretariat.

tries accounted accounted for for one-half one-half of the total total increase increase in gl obal commercial commercial energy energy consumption consumption since since 1973. 1973. global The increasing share share of of the the developing developing countries countries The increasing in global commercial commercial energy energy consumption consumption is is widely widely in global predi cted to to continue. continue. The The World World Energy Energy ConferConferpredicted en ce projects projects an an increase increase in in their share to to 40 40 percent percent ence their share

Se cond, within within this this services services framework framework the the changes changes Second, in ow energy used are ced f rom traditi onal in h how energy is is used are tra traced from traditional rural areas to to their their m odem urban unterparts. This rural areas modem urban co counterparts. This

14A Energy Workshop: Overview Overview of Responses (Stanfor(I (Stanford University Energy o f Poll Poll Responses University International International Energy Energy Project, July July 1989), 1989), reports reports the the results results and and assumptions assumptions of of n Workshop: over 100 projections projections of a 100 over of global global energy energyconsumption and and production production and and provides provides the the means means of of the the different different studies. studies. Not Not all all studies studies report report results results for fall coverage is is nonetheless nonetheless a regions. The coverage a comprehensive comprehensive indicator indicator of of how how energy energy forecasters forecasters view view the the future. futuriThey suggest suggest that that the the developing developing countries countries' n a The Emissions Scenarios share to over over one-third share could rise rise to one-third by by 2010. 2010. Longer Longer term term projections projections in in general general arrive arrive at at similar similar conclusions. conclusions. For For example, example, the thEiniSSiOnS l could prepared by the the Response Response Strategies document, prepared by Strategies Working Working Group Group of of the the Intergovemmental Intergovernmental Panel Panel on on Climate Climate Change, Change, Appendix Appendix Report Report of of the the Expert Expert y Group on Emissions Emissions Scenarios Scenarios (RSWG Steering Steering Committee, 1990, concludes overa Group Committee, Task A), April April 1990, concludes that, that OV er a wide wide range range of of scenarios, scenarios, the the share share of of developing developing s i on countries (Centrally Asia) will countries (Centrally Planned Planned Asia, Africa, Middle Middle East, East, and and South South and and East East Asia) will increase increase from a a 1985 1985 reference reference level level of of 23 23 percent percent to to between between s 40 and energy in 2100, and 40 and of global global energy in 2100, and that that this this group group of of developing developing countries countries would would account account for for between 60 and and 80 80 percent percent of of the the total total increase increase o 60pereent of over Further, developments in the developing countries define much of the difference between the low and high inenergy consumption over thisperiod. Further, developments in the developing countries define much of the difference between the low and high growth growth f scenarios. p r o j

n Developing 10 .Energy Energy i in Developing Countries Countries

Figure 1-3-Commercial 1-3-Commercial Energy Energy Consumption, Consumption, 1973, 1973, 1985, and 2020 (developing nation energy energy demand demand as as p e r c e n t a g e of o f world w o r l d total) a percentage
100% 100% EZ Developing regions EZ regions 76% 76%

lighting services be met by using m more convenlighting services can can be ore co nventional and in increasing amount of ele electricti onal lighting and creasing the am ount of ctricity generated, of m more efficient ity generated, by increasing increasing the use use of ore e fficient light bulbs, o or combination of the the tw two. light r by a co mbination of o. A systems approach systems approach permits permits the the comparison comparison of effiefficiency c iency and supply options options in achieving achieving the desired desired end. end. In our of energy services it In our analysis of services and systems systems it is recognized technology is recognized that te chnology adoption adoption and use is embedded embedded in an institutional institutional framework framework that proprovides both to vides both incentives incentives and disincentives disincentives t o users, users, and largely determines which which and and how how technologies technologies will largely determines be used. This This approach approach has cations be used. has a number number of of impli implications b oth for for the the way way technology technology is used used now now and r the both and fo for the ad option of technologies in uture. Thus, Thus, the adoption of new new technologies in the the f future. the energy sector in many developing developing countries countries is is energy sector i n many f requently characterized characterized as as "inefficient" inefficient in frequently i n the the sense that more more energy energy is is used used to to provide provide a sense that a given given servi ce or or output output than than is is usual usual in countries. service in industrial industrial countries. In a wider wider context, context, however, however, taking taking int o account account the In a into the many other relevant relevant factors factors (financial, (financial, infrastructurinfrastructurmany other al, onal), the chnology al, managerial, managerial, and and instituti institutional), the te technology may well be be used used t o the best of may well to the best of human human ability ability and and of ten with with considerable considerable ingenuity ingenuity and and resourcefulresourcefuloften ness. cases, alth ough energy appears t o be ness. In In many many cases, although energy appears to be used inefficiently, energy energy users users may may be be acting acting used inefficiently, llogically ogically given given the the framework framework of of incentives incentives and and disin centives within ch they cidisincentives within whi which they make make their their de decisi ons. It follows therefore therefore that adoption of sions. I t follows that the the adoption of a a new new te chnology will will depend depend not not only only on on the the intrinsi c technology intrinsic superi ority of of the technology itsel f but o o n superiority the technology itself but als also on whether institutional factors factors favor favor its adoption. The The whether institutional its adoption. p olicy environment environment is is of of crucial crucial importance importance to to the the policy ad option of of new new technologies. technologies. adoption

60% 60%

Estimated Estlmated
p 4 0 %

26% 26%

o o% %

,:. 1973 1973 1 9 8 5 1985 2 0

0 2020

Year Year

SOURCE: World Energy, Conference. Conference. Global Energy Perspectives Perspectives 20002000 2020, 14th 14th Congress, Montreal 19S9 (Paris: 1989). 1989). -

Figure 1-4-Per-Capita Figure 1-4-Per-Capita Commercial Commercial Energy Energy Consumption, 1973, 1985, and 2020
250 250

Gigajoules G i g a j o u l e s pper e r c capita apita - DDeveloping regions eveloping re gions

200

mD Developed e v e l o p e d r regions egions

1 5 0 150
100
50

1973

1985 1985 Year Year

2020

SOURCE: World Energy Conference, Global Global Enemy Perspectives 200020002020, 14th 14th Congress, Congress, Montreal Montreal 1989 (Pads: (P&is: 1989).

pr ogression from from the the traditional traditional rural rural to to the the modern modern progression urban helps illuminate the dynami c s of energy use, urban helps illuminate the dynamics of energy use, and h o w it c an be expe c ted t o c hange in the f uture. and how it can be expected to change in the future. Third, the entire entire system system needed needed to to provide provide energy energy Third, the servi ces-from the the energy energy resource resource to to the the final final services-from energy service, including including production, production, conversion, conversion, energy service, and use-is use-is examined examined as as a whole. whole. This This is done done in o rder t o sh o w the t o tal co sts and co nsequen ces to to order to show the total costs and consequences s oc iety, as well as t o the individual, of pr o viding society, as well as to the individual, of providing parti cular services, services, and and how how they they might might be be provided provided particular m o re e ff e c tively in terms of f inan c ial, envir onmore effectively i n terms of financial, environmental, and o ther co sts. F o r example, in c reased mental, and other costs. For example, increased

Overview Overview of the Report

Energy consumption in oping w orld has Energy consumption in the the devel developing world has risen the past past and and is is widely widely expected expected t o risen rapidly rapidly in in the to co ntinue increasing increasing rapidly uture. The The W orld continue rapidly in in the the f future. World Energy Conference, ffo example, projects projects (in (in its its Energy Conference, or r example, moderate economic economic gr owth case) case) a "moderate" growth a tripling tripling in in co nsumption of of co mmercial energy energy in developing consumption commercial in developing co untries between between now now and survey of countries and 2020. 2020. A A survey of a a large large number of projections projections of of commercial commercial energy energy use use number of br oadly co nfirms this The pr ojected rate broadly confirms this trend. trend. The projected rate of of in crease in in commercial commercial energy energy consumption consumption implicit implicit increase in these forecasts forecasts is ower than ced in these is l lower than that that experien experienced

Chapter 1--Introduction 1 Chapter and Overview 11 Introd u fo cr t foreign io n assistance competition for from countries co mpetition fo reign assistance f rom the co untries a n of Eastern high rates rates of Eastern Europe; Europe; but failure failure to to achieve achieve high d uld spell great hardship of gr growth hardship fo for of owth could co r the developdevelopO as v ing countries, ing countries, as their populations populations are growing growing so so e r rapidly. v i The process of economic eess w The proc economic development development that underunderlies improving developing counlies improving living standards in devel oping co un tries involves of changes, 1 a number tries involves number of changes, including including higher agricultural 1 productivity, agri cultural productivity, growth growth of manufacturing, manufacturing,

1 9 8 15 5In . creased supplies of between 1973 1973 and and 1985. biomass crop bi omass fuels fuels (fuelwood (fuelwood and animal and c rop 1 5 wastes) will wastes )a will als be required. The The World World Energy I ncre s ealso d o be Conference C on feren pr percent increase increase in biomass biomass s u p ce p projects l oje i cts e a 25 s percent Population growth and economic development use. P o pulati o n gr o wth and e co n o mi c devel opment o f are the the principal principal forces forces driving the rapid increase increase in energy use. use.

Population Growth
In In many developing developing countries, countries, fertility fertility rates (the (the number of c hildren expected expected to to be be born born to to a a woman woman children during the the course course of of her her life) life) have have dropped dropped dramatidramatic ally over over the the past past 20 20 years. years. Nevertheless, Nevertheless, the the cally p opulation of of the the developing developing world world continues continues to to population gr ow rapidly. rapidly. Over Over 90 90 percent percent of of world world population population grow occurring in in the the LDCs. LDCs. At At present, present, the the gr owth is is n no ow w occurring growth p opulation of of the the developing developing countries countries is is about about 4 4 population billi on, 77 77 percent percent of of the the world's worlds population. population. Even Even billion, assuming continued decreases decreases in in fertility fertility rates, rates, the the assuming continued p opulation of of these these countries countries is is projected projected to to rise rise to to population 7 billion billion in 2025, 2025,16 and could reach 10 billion in 2100, due tto o tthe large n number of women o of 2100, due h e large umber o f women f 1 c hildbearing age. Devel o ping co untries w o uld then childbearing age. Developing countries would then ' a n d a cco fo 88 percent percent of of the global population population in account 88 the global in c ount u for l rd 2100, and fo r virtually all of the in c rease in gl o bal 2100, and for virtually all of the increase in global r e a c p opulation. The The increase increase in population alone alone in population. in population in h devel oping countries countries would would account account for for a a 75 75 percent percent developing 1 0 in crease in in their their commercial commercial energy energy consumption consumption by by increase b i l if lper-capita consumption remained at 2025 even 2025 even if per-capita consumption remained at ic o levels. n current urrent levels. i n

co nstruction of of a modern modern public public works works infrastrucinfrastrucconstruction ture, urbanization, and and increased increased transportation transportation (table (table ture, urbanization, 1 -5 shows shows the the rapid increase increase in the r oad transp ort 1-5 road transport f leet). Higher o lead t o fleet). H i g h e r standards of living living als also to expansi on in in the the ownership ownership of consumer appliances appliances expansion of consumer saturation levels fo for some of the the ((table table 1-6 1-6 illustrates saturati on levels rs ome of m ost widely widely used used appliances). appliances). All All of changes most of these these changes have profound impacts impacts on on the the amounts amounts and and types types of have profound of energy used. energy used. C ommercial energy energy consumption consumption typically typically rises rises Commercial ffaster aster than economic gr owth as as the opment than economic growth the devel development pr ocess gets gets underway, and the the share share of mmercial process underway, and of co commercial energy otal energy consumption gr ows as energy in in t total energy consumption grows as it it takes takes the place of onal biomass biomass fuels. fuels. Even Even th ough the place of traditi traditional though the relative share of traditional the of traditi onal fuels fuels has declined, declined, the absolute to the absolute amounts amounts consumed consumed have continued continued t o 17 rise, by an estimated 2.5 per c ent per year. rise, by an estimated 2.5 percent per year.' Despite the strong strong connection connection between between commercommerDespite the c ial energy energy consumption consumption and economic gr owth, cial and economic growth, there evidence of nsiderable differences differences among among there is is evidence of co considerable devel oping nations nations iin their energy energy intensity-the intensity-the developing n their am ount of mmercial energy energy consumed consumed relative o amount of co commercial relative t to Gr oss National National Product Product (GNP). (GNP). There There are are examples examples Gross of untries with -capita in comes that of co countries with similar similar per per-capita incomes that co nsume quite di ff erent quantities of co mmercial consume quite different quantities of commercial energy. ome of fferences result rom energy. S Some of these these di differences result ffrom co untry-specific physical physical characteristics, characteristics, but but others others country-specific are ass associated differences social are ociated with di fferences in s ocial and ecoecon o mi c p o li c ies. P o li c ies pr o m o ting heavy industry nomic policies. Policies promoting heavy industry and on co ntribute t o high and high high rates rates of of urbanizati urbanization contribute to high energy intensities. Similarly, the energy intensities energy intensities. Similarly, the energy intensities of untries change change over over time. of co countries time. In I n several several industrial industrial co untries energy intensities de c lined even be fore countries energy intensities declined even before 1973 at a time when o il pri c es were f alling, largely 1973 at a time when oil prices were falling, largely

Economic Development Development

Securing higher higher living living standards standards for for the the increasincreasing population of of the the developing developing world world implies implies high high ing population rates of e co n o mi c gr o wth. The W o rld Energy rates of economic growth. The World Energy C onference, for for example, example, assumes assumes in in its its "modermoderConference, ate growth growth rate rate scenarios, scenarios, an an average average annual annual gross gross ate" rate of economic economic expansion expansion of of 4.4 4.4 percent percent to to 2020, 2020, rate of slightly lower than than in in the the past. past. This This would would represent represent slightly lower m o re than a fo ur fo ld in c rease in e co n o mi c activity more than a fourfold increase in economic activity between n o w and 2020. Ac hieving su c h rates of between now and 2020. Achieving such rates of gr o wth will c ertainly n o t be easy, espe c ially in light growth will certainly not be easy, especially in light of the high high levels levels of of debt have constrained constrained of the debt that that have e co n o mi c gr o wth in the 1980 s, and increasing economic growth i n the 1980's, and increasing

Perspectives a threefold of " Wo r l d Energy Conference, G l commercial fuels 2020. The commercial fuels in in developing developing countries countries between between 1985 1985 and and 2020. The Marine Marine study study projects projects a a rise rise of of 250 250 percent percent between between 1985 1985 and and 2010 2010 (see (see Alan Alan o S. and S. Marine Marine and Leo Schrattenholzer, "International Energy Energy Workshop: Workshop: Overview Overview of of Poll Poll Responses, Responses," Stanford Stanford University University International International Energy Energy Project, b 1989). Julya1989). Patience w and My l" R u Ed o nl f e A. r Bulatao, g y Eduard Bos, Bos, Patience P e Edition re p s h p(Washington, c ,t i v 1989-90 Edition DC: . S t ee n s a n d Bank, 1990), 1989-90 DC: World World 1990), table table 9. 9. e s M y T . Energy Perspectives 2000-2020, 14th Congress, Montreal 17
2 0 u0 0, v W 2 0u , r E o or M oi nd t ld 2 p dr 0 e , l e

12 .Energy n Developing Energy i in Developing Countries Countries

1 Table 1-5-Passenger Fleet Annual Growth in Selected Countries (percent) Commercial Two and and three three 5 Passenger Commercial Two Passenger wheelers cars vehicles Total Country group group wheelers Total cars vehicles Developing Developing countries:P a s s 11.8 Cameroon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29.5 9.1 13.1 11.8 Cameroon 13.1 29.5 9.1 enge 32 3.3 4.0 3.7 Kenya Kenya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 3.3 4.0 3.7 11.6 Bolivia . . . . . . . . . . . r 86 6.9 24.5 11.6 Bolivia . . . . . . . . . . . 8.6 6.9 24.5 25.6 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . F 89 7.3 9.8 25.6 Brazil . . . .l . . . . . . . 8.9 7.3 9.8 88 4.4 8.8 9.5 Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.8 4.4 8.8 9.5 e e 82 18.4 25.4 11.2 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2 18.4 25.4 11.2 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . t. . . . . . . . . 41.6 14.8 44.9 29.8 29.8 14.8 44.9 16.2 10.3 5.4 11.0 Taiwan . . . . . . . . . . . . . A ........ 10.3 16.2 11.0 5.4 19.1 10.0 11.4 13.9 19.1 Weighted average . . . . . . . . . . 10.0 13.9 11.4 n industrial countries: n 4.1 7.0 4.4 30 4.1 7.0 4.4 Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 United States 24 3.5 2.3 -5.6 United States . . . . . .u . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 3.5 2.3 -5.6 33 0.4 -2.2 2.6 West Germany Germany . . . . .a. . . . . . . . . . 3.3 0.4 -2.2 2.6 26 3.6 2.4 2.8 Weighted average average . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 3.6 2.4 2.8 l SOURCE: Fleet size and growth from Energy and Environmental Analysis, "Policy Options Options for for Improving Improving Transportation Energy Efficiency in in Developing Developing G report Countries, contractor report prepared prepared for for the the Office Office of of Technology Technology Assessment, Assessment, March March 1990. 1990. Countries," contractor r o (percent of of households) households) Table 1-6-Electric 1-6-Electric Appliance Ownership in Urban Areas (percent w t Radio Tv Fan Country Washer iron Cooker Radio T v Fan Washer iron Cooker h China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 66 45 2 China.. 39 66 45 2 11 i 76 4 74 Liberia 56 Liberia ... , ,.................. 76 4 11 74 56 25 78 Guatemala . . . . . . . . . .n ........ 25 78 80 78 Manila ..., , . . . . . . . . . .S ........ 82 94 Manila . 16 80 78 82 94 16 70 79 75 Malaysia ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 77 44 70 79 75 16 77 Malaysia., 44 e Hong 90 9 1 96 34 87 9 1 Hong Kong . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 91 96 34 87 91 Bangkok 96 5 96 84 5 Bangkok ., . . . . . . . . . .l. . . . . . . . 84 Taipei . . . . . . . . . . . . . .e ........ 92 94 53 92 94 89 53 89 KEY: - information not available. information not available. c SOURCE: Jayant Sathaye and Stephen Meyers, Energy "Energy Use Use in in Cities of the Developing Developing Countries, Countries," Annual Review of Energy, Energy, vol. vol. 10, 10, 1985, 1985, pp. pp. 109-133, 109-133, t table 6. e d due to improved improved technologies. te chnologies. After After the the 1973 1973 and and due to Financial Constraints 1979 oil price price shocks, shocC ks, the the decline decline in energy intensi 1979 oil in energy intensiC ommercial energy energy consists consists of oth domestically domestically ties was experienced experieno ced iin all industrial industrial countries. countries. Commercial of b both ties was n all u pr o du c ed and imp o rted supplies. Many developing W hile the the energy energy intensities intensities o of the developing developing produced and imported supplies. Many developing While f the n co untries rely o n imp o rted o il fo r virtually co untries continued continued to to rise rise after after 1973, 1973, the the rise rise was was countries countries rely on imported oil for virtually all all of of their their t co mmer c ial energy needs. Further in c reases less sharp than than before. before. These These experiences experiences testify testify to to commercial energy needs. Further increases in in less sharp r energy imports will impose a n energy imports w i l l impose a heavy heavy burden burden o on s ome flexibility flexibility iin commercial energy energy use. use. The The some n commercial i limited fo reign ex c hange res o ur c es, whi c h may c urrent projections projections cited cited above, above, however, however, already already limited foreign exchange resources, which may current e already be under under pressure pressure because because of service in corporate assumptions assumpti ons about about declining declining energy energy already be of debt debt service incorporate s payments ( see table 1 7 ) . intensity in developing developing countries. countries. payments (see table 1-7). intensity in ( Funding the development development o of domestic energy energy p Funding the f domestic supplies and infrastructure infrastructure also also poses poses problems. problems. e supplies and Energy Supply Energy supply facilities facilities such such as ctricity generat r Constraints Energy supply as ele electricity generating stations and and petroleum petroleum refineries refineries are are highly c ing stations highly The developing countries co will face face ma jor difficuldifficulc apital intensive, intensive, placing placing major major demands demands on on the The developing major e untries will capital the ties tripling energy energy supplies over over the the next next 30 30 s carce supplies supplies of of both both domestic domestic and and foreign foreign rereties iin n tripling supplies n scarce years. Significant tobstacles obstacles in clude financial financial concons ources available available for for capital capital investment. investment. Already, Already, years. Significant include sources straints, difficulties increasing biomass biomass fuel fuel investments in the the commercial commercial energy supply sector sector straints, difficulties iin n increasing investments in energy supply )

supplies, institutional and and policy policy factors, factors, and and envienvisupplies, institutional r onmental impacts. impacts. ronmental

((including including electricity, electricity, oil oil and and gas, gas, and and coal) coal) reprerepresented ver 30 cent of c sented in i n the the 1980s 1980s o over 30 per percent of publi public

Chapter 1--Introduction 1-Introduction and Overview 1 3 Chapter and Overview 13

a Countries,'1987 Table 1-7-Energy 1-7Energy Imports, Debt Service, and Export Earnings for Selected Developing Countries, 1987

Country ( p e r c Low-income: 55 Ethiopia Ethiopia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Tanzania . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 56 36 Madagascar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 53 Rwanda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 97 Benin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 39 Kenya Kenya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Pakistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 26 5 Burma . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Lower middle-income: middle-income: Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 27 Morocco 31 Jamaica . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 31 Turkey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 53 Jordan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 40 Syrian Arab Arab Republic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Energy imports as Energy as share share of merchandise exports merchandise exports e n t(percent) )

Debt service service as as share share of of Debt exports exports of goods and services (percent) (percent) 28.4 28.4 18.5 18.5 35.3 35.3 11.3 11.3 15.9 15.9 28.8 28.8 25.9 25.9 59.3 59.3 29.9 29.9 26.6 26.6 31.7 31.7 21.8 21.8 16.5 16.5

Energy imports and debt service Energy debt service as share share of of total total exports exports 1987 1987 as (percent) (percent) 83.4 83.4 74.5 74.5 71.3 71.3 64.3 64.3 112.9 112.9 67.8 67.8 51.9 51.9 64.3 64.3 56.9 56.9 57.6 57.6 62.7 62.7 74.8 74.8 56.5 56.5 55.3 55.3 51.0 51.0

Upper middle-income: middle-income: 45.3 10 45.3 Argentina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 49.0 2 49.0 Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 a lncludes all all nations nations in which debt service and and oil combinedis greater tOtal exports. eXpOrtS. a Includes oil imports combinedis greaterthan than 50 50 percent percent Of ot total

Ye*, NY: Oxford University Press, 1989), pp. 172-173 and210-21 1. SOURCE: World Bank, World Development R e p o r t 1989 ( N e w Y e * , N Y : O x f o r d U n i v e r s i t y investment budgets in a wide wide range of of developing developing di fficult for for many many developing developing countries countries to to increase increase investment budgets in a range difficult P r e s s , co untries (see table 1-8 with the electric electric utility utility their borrowing from from abroad. abroad. countries (see the their borrowing 1 9 8 table 9 1-8), ) ), with , p se ctor accounting accop unting for for .the the lions lions share. share. Despite Despite these these sector 1 7 2 1 already large c laims o n c apital res o ur c es, the c urrent already large claims on capital resources, the current Biomass Supply Constraints 7 3 level of investment in the the elec sector maybe maybe level of a n investment d 2 in 1 electricity 0tricity sector It maybe equally equally difficult difficult to to increase increase supplies supplies of It maybe of 2 1 inadequate. The World World Bank Bank estimates estimates that that investinvestinadequate. The traditi onal biomass biomass fuels. fuels. Despite Despite rapid rapid rates rates of traditional of 1 ments of $125 $125 billion billion annually annually (twice (twice the urrent ments of the c current . urbanizati on in in the the developing developing world, world, almost almost twotwourbanization

Biomass Supply Constraints

level )w will be needed needed in in developing developing countries countries to to level) i l l be pr ovide adequate adequate supplies supplies of of electricity electricity .18 .18 This This provide
figure figure rrepresents epresents v i r t u a l l y

virtually t the h e eentire n t i r e aannual n n u a l i inncrease in the combined GNP of of the developing countries.
Finding the domestic domestic and and foreign foreign res ources needed needed Finding the resources t o f inan c e energy f a c ilities has always p o sed major to finance energy facilities has always posed major di ff i c ulties fo r devel o ping co untries. Current levels difficulties for developing countries. Current levels of domestic resource resource mobilization, mobilization, often often related related to to of domestic l o w levels of energy pri c es, are rep o rted in many low levels of energy prices, are reported in many countries co untries to to fall fall short short of the amounts amounts needed needed for for 19 In the past, about one-half of all system expansi o n. system expansion. 19 In the past, about one-half of all investments in energy energy supply supply have have been been provided provided by by investments in 20 fo reign s o ur c es, but high levels of c urrent debt foreign sources, b u t high levels of current debt in in many developing countries countries and and increasing increasing fiscal fiscal many developing difficulties n the t di fficulties iin the industrial industrial countries countries make make iit
Sector (Washington.L DC: DC: March March 1988), 1988), p. p. 10. 10. 1 1(Washingtonl Sector
. w 1987). 1987). a iAe 2 gc n e e W n J o .S t vL 18

thirds otal populations populations in oor nati ons live thirds of of the the t total in p poor nations live in in rural areas. These These p opulations largely n rural areas. populations largely depend depend o on bi omass fuels fuels t o produce produce their ome biomass to their energy, energy, with with s some rural electrification rural electrification where available, and small but vital quantities of of petr oleum products products (fo r irrigati on, vital quantities petroleum (for irrigation, lighting, and transport). transport). lighting, and Demand r biomass biomass fuels fuels ( largely f uelwood) will Demand fo for (largely fuelwood) will co ntinue rising t o meet the d o mesti c needs of continue rising to meet the domestic needs of the the urban and rural rural poor, poor, rural rural industry, industry, and and in some urban and in some c ases, such such as as Brazil, Brazil, modern modern industry. Overuse of cases, industry. Overuse of bi o mass res o ur c es already co ntributes t o environenvironbiomass resources already contributes to mental degradation (see (see below). below). Moreover, Moreover, gathergathermental degradation ing traditi o nal supplies of f uelw oo d is ing t r a d i t i o n a l supplies o f fuelwood is time t i m eco nsuming, exhausting w o rk f requently undertaken consuming, exhausting work frequently undertaken by women and and children, children, who who are are thus thus diverted diverted from from by women ) that co uld o ther a c tivities ( edu c ati o n and f arming other activities (education and farming) that could
Role of the private National

Power Shortages

The Energy Transition in Developing

(Washington DC: 1983).

14 Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries Countries

Table 1-8-Estimated Annual Annual Energy Energy Investment as a Percentage of Annual Total Public Investment During the Early 1980s Public
Over 40 percent 3 030-40 percent 2 0 - 20-30 - 4 0 percent 3 0 percent Botswana Ecuador Argentina Botswana Ecuador China Brazil India China Brazil India Costa Rica Pakistan Costa Colombia Pakistan Liberia Korea Liberia Korea Philippines Philippines Mexico Nepal Nepal Turkey 0-10 percent 10-20 percent 0 - 1 10-20 percent 0 percent Benin Ethiopia Ethiopia Benin Egypt Egypt Ghana Ghana Jamaica Jamaica Morocco Morocco Nigeria Nigeria Sudan Sudan

SOURCE: SOURCE: Mohan Munasing he, Elect& Power Power Economics (London: Butterworths, 1990), 1990), p. p. 5. 5.

eventually improve improve their their productivity productivity and and living living co nditions. An An estimated estimated one-third one-third of of the the population population conditions. of developing countries countries now now faces faces fuelwood fuelwood defidefiof developing c its, and and will will increasingly increasingly rely rely on on crop crop wastes wastes and and cits, animal dung to to meet meet their their energy energy needs. needs. animal clung

utility operations and and therefore therefore reduced reduced efficiency. efficiency. utility operations A recent World World Bank ort o n the ower se ctor in A recent Bank rep report on the p power sector in devel oping countries countries points points out out that: that: developing Su ch interference interference has has adversely adversely affected affected least st Such least co cost pr ocurement and and investment investment decisions, decisions, hampered hampered procurement attempts to raise raise prices prices to to efficient efficient levels, levels, mandated mandated attempts to llow ow salaries salaries tied tied t oc ivil service service levels, levels, and and promoted promoted to civil ex cessive sta ffing. This This in excessive staffing. in turn turn has has resulted resulted in in inadequate management, the loss of ced inadequate management, the loss of experien experienced sta ff due due to to uncompetitive uncompetitive employment employment conditions conditions staff and poor j ob satisfaction, satisfaction, weak and poor job weak planning planning and and de demand recasting, ine fficient o peration and mand fo forecasting, inefficient operation and mainte maintenan ce, high high losses, losses, and and poor poor financial financial m onitoring, nance, monitoring, controls co ntrols and and revenue revenue collection.' collection. 22 Manp ower problems problems are are exacerbated exacerbated by ck Manpower by the the la lack 23 of standardization of ch makes of standardization of equipment, equipment! whi which makes the the learning process more more difficult. difficult. Another Another disadvandisadvanlearning process tage of the city of the di fficulty tage of the multipli multiplicity of equipment equipment is is the difficulty of maintaining adequate adequate supplies supplies of of spare parts. of maintaining spare parts. Pri cing policies policies are requently identi fied as Pricing are f frequently identified as a a ma jor institutional institutional problem. problem. Energy Energy pricing pricing policies policies major vary in developing developing countries, countries, reflecting reflecting differences differences vary in in energy resource resource endowments endowments and ocial and in energy and s social and devel opmental policies. policies. However, However, price price controls controls on on developmental energy products, such such as as kerosene kerosene and some ele ctricenergy products, and some electricity prices, are are a a common common feature feature in many countries. countries. ity prices, in many W hile low low prices prices help help to to make make energy energy more more affordaaffordaWhile ble, they can can also also result ble, they result in in a a level level of of revenues revenues inadequate to cover cover costs costs and and finance finance future future supply supply inadequate to expansi on. Many Many analysts analysts have characterized this expansion. have characterized this as as a common problem problem in ctricity sectors sectors of a common in the the ele electricity of a a wide range of of developing developing countries!' countries.24 wide range

Institutional Constraints on Rapid Expansion in Energy Supplies

Over and above above the the capital capital constraints constraints discussed discussed Over and ab ove, a a wide wide range range of of other other factors, factors, customarily customarily above, de fined as as "institutional," institutional, currently currently impede impede comcomdefined mer cial energy energy sector sector development. development. While While definidefinimercial tions ti ons of of institutional institutional factors factors differ differ between observobservers, they are are generally generally taken taken to to be be nontechnological, nontechnological, ers, they en compassing a a variety variety of of economic, economic, organizational, organizational, encompassing and policy factors factors that that affect affect the the way way technologies technologies and policy 21 per fo rm in o perati o nal settings. S o me of these perform in operational settings!' Some of these f actors (the (the worldwide worldwide increase increase in in interest interest rates, rates, for for factors example ) are o utside the co ntr o l of individual example) a r e outside the control o f individual co untries, b but others are are related related to to policies policies and and countries, u t others pr oc edures in the individual co untry. procedures in the individual country. The electricity supply supply system system offers offers an an example example of of The electricity the importance of of instituti onal factors. factors. In most the importance institutional I n most co untries of of the the developing developing world world the the electricity electricity countries se ctor is is government government owned, owned, reflecting reflecting the the imporimporsector tan ce attached attached to to electric electric power power for for meeting meeting ecoecotance n omic and and social social objectives, objectives, and and in some cases, cases, nomic in some espe cially in in small small systems, systems, the the advantage advantage of of cencenespecially tralizati on for for securing securing economies economies of of scale scale and and tralization coo rdination in in planning planning and and operations. operations. However, However, coordination g overnment ownership ownership can can lead lead to to interference interference and and government l oss of of autonomy autonomy iin day-to-day management management of loss n day-to-day of

Review of World Bank Lending for Power (Washington, p21 W2 issues in Developing DC: World November P. 2 or for sets fro different for Development, M m In Mali, for example, there are 40 diesel generator sets f r o 1 7 different manufacturers (see U.S. Agency for International Development, "Electric ld o h Utility Power Power Utility Efficiency Efficiency Improvement Improvement Study, Study," draft draft core core report, report, May May 15, 15, 1990). 1990). B an footnote 19; Energy Efficiency and Energy Developing Countries, 24Hin a rtzmanr,' " E n e r g y Efficiency and Energy Pricing Pricing in in Developing Countries," OTA OTA contractor contractor report, June June M 1990. , n u o k p. n c , i a t A. , s f Ro

Chapter 1-Introduction n d Overview 5 Chapter l--Introduction a and Overview 115

Figure 1-5-Suspended Figure 1-5-Suspended Particulate Particulate Matter Levels in Selected Cities, 1980-84 1980-84
5-year average average for for the the city. city. Shown is the range of annual values at individual sites and the composite 5-year
3 WHO 60-90 ug/m WHO Guideline 60-90 ug/m' 1 0 0 ~ 1 0 0

10 10 I1

I1 1 I 1 I

11 1 I 1I

II II

I1

I1

I 1 1 I 1I

1,000 1,000 I1 I l
{ 1.

Key 1. Kuwait 1. Kuwait 2. Shenyang Shenyang 3. Xian Xian 4. New Delhi 5. Beijing 6. Calcutta 7. Tehran Tehran 8. Jakarta Jakarta 9. Shanghai Shanghai 10. Guangzhou Guangzhou 11. Illigan City 11. Wigan 12. Bangkok Bangkok 13. Bombay Bombay 14. Kuala Kuala Lumpur Lumpur 15. Zagreb Zagreb 16. Rio de Janeiro 16. 17. Bucharest Bucharest 18. Accra Accra 19. Lisbon 20. Manila

Range Range of of individual site annual averages annual averages

t
1

I1 1
I

2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 15. 1

/ -

I1 I 11 1 1 ]16. 7. 6 7.

F F

Combined site Combined average 1980-84 1980-84

I1

I
1 I I1 I111. 11. I1 8 8 .

. 19. 19. la. 10.

r
[
I I1 I1 I1

I
I

12. 12. 13. 113. 14. 14.

I
/

1' I1 1 18 18. 19. 19.

1 15. 5 16. 16. . 17. 17.

20. 20.

SOURCE: World Health Organization and United Nations Environment Fund, Global Pollution and and Health (London: Yale Yale University University Press, Press, 1987), 1987), figure figure 3. 3.

Environmental Degradation in Developing Countries

Devel oping countries countries are are experiencing experiencing acceleratacceleratDeveloping ing rates of of environmental environmental degradation degradation and and pollupolluing rates ti on. While While many many factors factors contribute contribute to to environenvirontion. mental degradation, energy energy production production and and use use play play mental degradation, key roles, especially especially in in urban urban environmental environmental quality. quality. key roles, Even at present present levels levels of of energy energy generation generation and and use, use, Even at the impacts on on environmental environmental quality quality are are severe severe in the impacts in many areas. Additional Additional large large increases increases in in energy energy use use many areas. will exacerbate the the situation situation unless unless steps steps are are taken taken to to will exacerbate mitigate adverse environmental environmental impacts. impacts. A At t the the mitigate adverse same time, energy energy is is an an essential essential input o su ch same time, input t to such envir o nmental co ntr o l systems as sewage treatment. environmental control systems as sewage treatment. The combustion combustion of fossil fossil fuels fuels has led to to levels of air pollution in in cities cities of of developing developing countries countries that are air pollution that are am ong the the highest highest in in the the world world (see (see figures figures 1-5 1-5 and and among 1 -6). The The transportation transportation sector sector is is the the largest largest contribcontrib1-6). ut or to to air air pollution pollution in many c ities.25 The combusutor in many cities.' The combusti on of of o il or or gas gas iin stationary sources, sources, such such as as tion oil n stationary ele ctric generating generating units, units, factories, factories, and and households, households, electric als o contributes contributes through through emissions emissions of of nitrogen nitrogen also o xides, particulate, particulate, sulfur sulfur dioxide, dioxide, carbon carbon dioxide, dioxide, oxides, c arbon monoxide, monoxide, and and hydrocarbons. hydrocarbons. The The fossil fossil fuel fuel carbon

mix has an an imp ortant impa ct o n emissi on levels. mix has important impact on emission levels. Coal of fo fossil fuels C oal is the most most deleterious deleterious of ssil f uels in terms of emissions per per unit unit of of use ful energy energy provided, provided, of emissions useful parti cularly when ot burned odern, particularly when it i t is is n not burned in in m modern, well -operated plants. plants. well-operated In addition to to the the environmental environmental damage damage caused caused In addition by the combustion combustion of of fossil fossil fuels, fuels, their their production production by the and transportation also also impose impose environmental environmental costs, costs, and transportation su ch as as disturbance disturbance of fers f rom co al such of lands lands and and aqui aquifers from coal mining, ccidental leaks il mining, and and a accidental leaks and and spills spills during during o oil and gas production production and and re fining. Air Air quality cts and gas refining. quality impa impacts in clude, ffo example, l o loc al ollution f rom include, or r example, ca l air air p pollution from parti culate and and o ther emissions emissions during al mining particulate other during co coal mining preparati on, and and transport transport and and the the release release of preparation, of meth methane, al mining oduction ane, during during co coal mining and and natural natural gas gas pr production and transportation. and transportation. N on-fossil energy energy sources sources such such as as hydroelectric hydroelectric Non-fossil devel opment also also causes causes environmental environmental damage. damage. development Dam construction often often requires requires the the clearing clearing of of Dam construction lands fo for removal of co construction lands r access access routes routes and rem oval of nstruction material, soil degradation degradation and osion. material, with with resulting resulting soil and er erosion. Filling oir f loods large large tra cts of Filling the the reserv reservoir floods tracts of land, land, whi ch usually usually means means loss loss of cultural land, which of agri agricultural land, human settlements, fish fish production, production, forests, forests, wildlife wildlife human settlements,

In Indian cities, for example, gasoline-fueled vehicles-mostly two two and and three wheelers-ar e responsible for for 85 85 percent percent of of carbon carbon monoxide monoxide and and 35 35 to 65 percent to 65 percent of of hydrocarbons, hydrocarbons, while while diesel dieselvehicles-buses and and trucks-are trucks-are responsible responsible for for over over 90 90 percent percent no n o N 0emissions. Tats Energy Research Data Directory Directory and and Yearbook Yearbook 1988 1988 (New (New Delhi, Delhi, India: Institute, TEE! Energy Data India: 1989), 1989), p. p. 250. 250. v _emissions. T a t s E n e r g y R e s e a r c h

.Energy 16 Energy in in Developing Developing Countries Countries

Figure 1-6-Sulfur Dioxide Levels in Selected Cities, 1980-84 Figure 5-year average average for the the city. Shown is the range of annual values at individual sites and the composite 5-year ci t y. 1 1 I1
Key 1. Milan 1. 2.Shenyang Concentration (ug/m3) Concentration (ug/m')
I

10 10 I1 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1I I I I I

I1

3 WHO WHO Guideline 40-60 ug/m ug/m' 100 / \ 100

II

1 I

1 I 1 I 1I 1I II II

I1

Range Range of individual site annual averages averages

4. Seoul Seoul 5. Rio de Janeiro 6. Sao Paulo 7. Xian Xian C o m 8. Paris Paris a v e 9. Beijing 10. Madrid Madrid 11. Manila 12. Guangzhou Guangzhou 13. Glasgow Glasgow 14. Frankfurt Frankfurt k 15. Zagreb Zagreb 16. Santiago Santiago 17. Brussels Brussels 18. Calcutta 18. 19. London London 20. New York City

I
b r i a

I
I I 1
1
I

site n Combined e d site 1980-84 gaverage e 1980-84

I
I
I

1 1 1 1 2 f.

I I I

2
I

. 1
1
1

1
5

/1 I

1 1 1 1 14 . 3. 1 1 j 7. I 1 [ 7 .l I 8. 1 8 I 1 19. I, 9 J 1 / I J 10. 1 1 1 I T 11. I I 1 I1 1 s ~ 12. . I 13. 1 1

14. 14.

I 1 1
I1

1 1 1 3 . 1

1
I

15. . 18. 17. ] 17. it. [l 16.

8. I 19. I 11 1 [[20. 20.

SOURCES: World Health Organization and United Nations Environment Fund, Global Pollution and and Health (London: Yale Yale University University Press, Press, 1987), 1987), figure figure 2. 2.

habitat, and species species diversity!' diversity.26 The dam and and reserreserhabitat, and The dam v oir interrupt interrupt the the free free flow flow of of surface surface water, water, affect affect voir water tables and and groundwater groundwater flow, flow, and and disrupt disrupt water tables downstream d ownstream flows flows of of water and and nutrient-laden nutrient-laden sedisediments. These environmental costs These environmental costs are all the more more o nerous if if the the lifespan lifespan of of hydr oelectric projects projects is is onerous hydroelectric redu ced through through heavier heavier than than expected expected siltation siltation of of reduced reserv oirs from from deforested deforested and/or and/or degraded degraded lands lands reservoirs 27 upstream. upstream.2 7 Burning biomass, the the source source of of energy used by Burning biomass, energy used by m ost of of the the developing developing worlds worlds population, population, also also most c auses environmental environmental degradation. degradation. Although Although the the use use causes of biomass for for fuel fuel is is only only one, one, and and not not the the principal, principal, of biomass c ause of of deforestation, deforestation, iit does add add additional additional presprescause t does sure on forest forest resources resources especially especially in sure on i n arid arid o or r semi -arid regions regions where where forest forest growth growth is is slow slow and and semi-arid

where opulation density ra where there there is is a a high high p population density o or a concentrated co ncentrated urban demand demand for for fuelwood, fuelwood, such such as the African the African Sahel!' Sahel.28 W hen fuelwood fuelwood is short supply, supply, rural populaWhen is in in short rural populati ons turn turn to to crop crop residues residues and and dung dung for for their uel tions their f fuel needs. To of bi biomass needs. To the extent that these forms forms of omass would as f fertilizers, diversion w ould have been been used used as ertilizers, their diversi on t o fuel fuel contributes contributes to to lowered lowered soil soil productivity.' productivity.29 to Finally, biomass fuel fuel combustion combustion has has a ficant Finally, biomass a signi significant impa ct o n air Food is cally cooked cooked o ver impact on air quality. quality. Food is typi typically over o pen fries fries or or poorly poorly vented vented stoves, stoves, exposing exposing househouseopen h old members--particularly members--particularly women women and and childrenchildren hold t o high high levels levels of oxic smoke. smoke. Similarly, Similarly, in lder to of t toxic in co colder c limates, homes homes in areas are are often often heated climates, in rural rural areas heated by by o pen fires, fires, with increased exposures exposures to to toxic toxic sm oke. 30 open with increased smoke.'

Volta 8,730km2, approaches the size of countries 26 or Cyprus. See (cd.), Man-made Lakes and Human Health University F or Cyprus. See R.S.Panday fed.), Man-made Lakes and Human Health (Paramaribo: University of of S Suriname, 1979). 1979). o r for to be productive for about 110 years, but now an of 27Th e Assessment, Technologies 35 U.S. e 35 years. years. U.S. Congress, Congress, Office of of Technology Technology Assessment ,Technologies To To Sustain Sustain Tropical Tropical Forests, Forests, O'rA-F-214 (Washington, DC: DC: U.S. U.S. Government Government x 1984), p. p. 43. 43. Printing H i Office, March Printing March 1984), a r a Wood Fuels, Resource 2 8 m k e Department Working Paper No. 26, March Moss and and D Department Working Paper No. 26, March 1990; R.P. Moss and W.13. Morgan, "Fuelwood and Rural Rural Energy Energy Production Production and and Supply Supply in in the the Humid Humid p d Tropics, United Nations Nations University, o Tropks," United University, Tycooly International International Publishing, Publishing, Ltd., Ltd., Dublin, Dublin, 1981; 1981; Daniel Daniel Finn, Land "Land Use Use and and Abuse Abuse in the the East East Africa lr u 6, 1983, 1983, pp. gl Region," AMMO, vol. vol. 12, 12, No. No. 6, pp. 296-301, 296-301, Dennis Dennis Anderson Anderson and and Robert Robert Fishwick, World World Bank, "Puelwood consumption and and Deforestation e es Countries, staff working paper No. 704, 19S4. a in African African Countries," staff working paper No. 704, 19S4. , s It helps the B t 2 e9 . minerals would otherwise be leached away. It the acidity of soils, and h minerals such as magnesium, calcium, and potassium that would otherwise be leached away. Itbuffets the acidity of soils, and it it improves improves water water retention retention O r r B and other physical characteristics. characteristics. See See Geoffrey Barnard e and other physical Barnard and and Lars Kristoferson, Agricultural Agricultural Residues Residues as as Fuel Fuel in in the Third Third World, Earthscan, g a v a for Internationallristitute for Environment Environment and and Development, Energy Energy Information Program, technical technical report report No. No. 4 4 (Washington (Washington DC DC and London: Earthscan, r nii o r 1985). 1985). e c r n s R. Air Pollution, and Global Review (New NY: Plenum 1987). m j3 0
e e a i4 0 s r t rk I , v t R n W o e . d

Chapter 1--Introduction 1 Chapter and Overview 17 Introd u c t country ico ountry n the developing share would to the developing would increase increase t o 44 35 a n percent 2025.' per cent of of annual energy sector sector emissions emissions by 2025. d The magnitude emissions The C02 emissi ons from from fossil fossil fuel fuel O v of CO. sources fairly known, contribution s ources is ef airly own, but the co ntribution r well kn from a l l from f rom deforestation, defov restati which is virtually all from i on, which developing cannot devel oping countries, cannot be estimated accuaccue countries, w rately. This i t di difficult to calculate rately. fficult t oc alculate with makes it confidence country of gl global co nfidence developing co untry share of obal 1 the developing annual and emissions for CO, and other annual cumulative emissi ons fo r CO 7 cumulative 2 and other

Greenhouse Gases Gases and Developing Countries

Energy use use in developing developing countries countries also also contribcontributes to to increased increased emissions emissions of greenhouse greenhouse gases gases and and associated ass ociated global global climate climate change. change. A An international international panel of scientific scientific experts experts of the Intergovernmental Intergovernmental Panel on on Climate Change (IPCC)' (IPCC)31 recently concluded that: c luded that I r e c e : n t l y
c emissions . . . emissi ons resulting resulting from from human human activities activities are are substantially increasing increasing the the atmospheric atmospheric concentraconcentrati ons of of the the greenhouse greenhouse gases: gases: carbon carbon dioxide, dioxide, tions methane, chlorofluorocarbons chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) (CFCs) and and nitrous nitrous oxide. o xide. These These increases increases will will enhance enhance the the natural natural greenh ouse effect, effect, resulting on on average in an addiaddigreenhouse 32 ti onal w warming of the the Earth's Earths surface: surface. tional arming of o n -

gases. Estimates emissions gases. Estimates of CO, CO2 emissi ons from from tropical tropical 36 de forestation differ differ by by a factor factor of 4. By various deforestation 4.'B y various estimates, deforestation of estimates, deforestation could could be the source source of between oughly 7 and 35 per cent of otal annual between r roughly percent of t total CO, emissions CO ons. 2 emissi

2 Based on current current models, models, the the panel panel predicts predicts that, that, Based on under a "business business as as usual" usual scenario, scenario, the the global global under a mean temperature will increase at at a a rate rate of of ab out 0.3 0.3 mean temperature will increase about C per per decade decade during during the the next next c entury, a a rate 'C century, rate at at least least 10 times higher higher than than any any seen seen over over the the past past 10,000 10,000 10 times 33 years. years. 33 A tmospheric concentrations concentrations of Atmospheric of CO CO.2 have have in inc reased by by about about 25 25 percent percent since since preindustrial preindustrial creased times, largely due due to to emissions emissions from from the the burning burning of of times, largely fossil fo ssil fuels fuels and and from from deforestation. deforestation. In 1985, accordaccording to another another IPCC IPCC working working group, group, developing developing ing to co untries contributed contributed about about one-quarter one-quarter (26 (26 percent) percent) countries of annual global global energy energy sector sector CO, CO 2 emissi ons. % of annual emissions. U nder the with Under the "business business as usual" usual scenario, scenario, with % expanding populations, rapidly rapidly increasing increasing energy energy expanding populations, use, and assuming assuming the the absence absence of of control control measures, measures, use, and

Despite uncertainties, it safe to to conclude conclude that Despite uncertainties, i t is is safe that the developing countries countries already already contribute contribute a subthe developing a substantial urrent annual annual gl obal CO stantial part part of of c current global CO,emissions, 2 emissions, and that their share will increase future. and increase in the f uture. But, be cause of of their large and and rapidly rapidly growing growing populapopulabecause their large ti ons, per-capita CO,emissions CO2emissions iin the developing developing tions, n the countries co untries will will still still remain remain much much lower lower than in the co untries of of the industrial world. world. Developing Developing councouncountries the industrial tries also account account fo r at f of obal tries also for at least least hal half of the the gl global anthr opogenic generation generation of oo ther imp ortant anthropogenic of tw two other important greenh ouse gases, gases, methane methane and and nitrous nitrous oxide. oxide. greenhouse Devel oping and and industrial industrial countries countries would would both both Developing be damaged by by the the anticipated anticipated impacts impacts of of c limate be damaged climate c hange. In on t o in creases in obal change. I n additi addition to increases in mean mean gl global temperature, other major major effects effects of of global global climate climate temperature, other 37 c hange w ould in clude in creases in change would include increases in sea sea leve1 l e v e r and and shi fts iin regional temperature, temperature, wind, wind, rainfall, rainfall, and and shifts n regional

is an international task force created by the World Meteorological 31-Th United Nations Environment e Nations United Environment Program. Program. Initiated Initiated in in 1987, 1987, this this body body focuses focuses on on analyzing analyzing current current information information available available on on climate climate change change issues issues and and devising to address address climate climate change. I n t strategies devising strategies to change. e r Panel on Climate Change, of the Assessment of Climate Change: Report to from 3 2 g o Group I, June 1990, p. i. Working I n Working Group I," June 1990, p. v e t e ii. would over the preindustrial global average temperature of 2 degrees centigrade by 2025 4 C by 33 r n r g best estimate prediction has an uncertainty range 1 d best estimate prediction has an uncertainty range of of 0.2 0.2 to to 0.5C 0.5C per per decade. decade. This This was was based based on on projections projections derived derived from from another another working working group group that that m e o, v in 1985 to between 11 and 15 in 2025. Methane emissions were emissions of . emissions of CO could grow from approximately 7 billion tonnes of carbon n t e o u lto 1985 to 2025. projected to increase from 300 teragrams in a projected from 300 in 1985 to 500 500 tetagrams by by 2025. 2 c d increase a l t Of g m r 4o w 3 P p f m Formulation of p. 10, 1r n o a Formulation of Response Response Strategies: Strategies: Report Report Prepared Prepared for fodPCC," Executive Executive Summary, Summary,p. 10, table table 2, 2. June June 1990. 1990. e n m . t e ~@ n 3 5 t i a pa r g e Emissions Scenarios Prepared Prepared by by the the Response Response Strategies Strategies Working Working Group Group of Intergovernmental Panel Panel on 0 T p rScenarios "Emissions of the the Intergovernmental on Climate Climate Change, Change," Appendix Appendix Report Report of of l o i x o vi m the Expert A the l Expert Group Group on on Emissions Emissions Scenarios Scenarios(RSWG Steering Steering Committee, Committee, Task Task A), A), April April 1990. 1990. . a P t e l e r o c Summary of the Formulation of Response Strategies: Report Prepared for JPCC by Working Group III, June p. 5. a 3 6 y T n a Estimates of were 0.6 to 2.5 in 1980 according to a report prepared n 1 h Estimates of CO emissions from deforestation and land use changes (including wood 7 C m l IPCC Working for the Group 1. 1. "Scientific Scientific Assessment Assessment of e for Working Group of Climate Climate Change: Change: Peer Peer Reviewed Reviewed Assessment Assessment for for WG1 WG1 Plenary Plenary Meeting, Meeting, May May 1990, 1990," Apr. Apr. P ni i 2 b the e l c 30, 1990, p. 1-9. l 1990, p. 1-9. More recent recent evidence evidence from selected selected countries countries would would indicate indicate deforestation deforestation rates rates now now are are higher higher than than they they were were in in 1980. 1980. Estimates Estimates of of C s e m i s s i o l30, l t a iu emissions in 1987 were 5.7 +0.5 from fossil fuel burning and total emissions were of 7 o C , CO n i sw l o m l n of global mean sea level rise of about 6 cm per decade over the next century-20 by 2030 " 2 f rP 3 7 o n o P a a o l cm e u m regional variations). This predicted increase is due primarily to thermal expansion of the and 65 cm by the end end of the century (with T t C o a and 65 by the of the century (wittsignificant regional variations). This predicted increase is due primarily to thermal expansion of the oceans oceans t t i l i c m l and melting ice. d r some h ef o of n e nmelting and of some land land ice. e
i e n s ie s a s i n o o i y d s I ePt a t C n m m o n C l h b a a k e C o a a t e r a w n s

18 *Energy n Developing Energy i in Developing Countries Countries

storm st orm patterns. patterns. These These effects effects in turn would would subsubmerge some some low-lying low-lying coastal coastal areas areas and and wetlands, wetlands, threaten buildings buildings and and other other structures structures in these areas, and increase increase the salinity of coastal coastal aquifers aquifers and estuaries. Such Such changes changes would would disrupt disrupt human human comcommunities and aquatic aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, ecosystems, and affect a ffect food food production production and and water water availability. availability. A A number of developing developing countries countries would would be especially especially vulnerable to to rising sea levels through through threats to to co astal communities communities and and ecosystems, ecosystems, increased increased coastal vulnerability to to storm storm damage, damage, and inundati on of inundation l ow-lying arable arable lands.' lands.38 The adverse adverse effects effects o of low-lying f c limate change change would would exacerbate exacerbate the the impacts impacts of of climate in creased populations populations iin Asia, Africa, Africa, and and small small increased n Asia, island nations nations of of the Caribbean, Caribbean, Indian, Indian, and and Pacific Pacific O ceans. 39The The timing, timing, severity, severity, and and extent extent of of these these Oceans. p otential impacts impacts remain remain uncertain. uncertain. potential

heat and and coo cooking are the the largest largest Industrial process process heat king are energy services, for about one energy services, each each accounting accounting fo r ab out o ne third of all energy consumed of consumed (commercial (commercial plus biomass) biomass) in developing of energy energy use use in developing countries. countries. This pattern of contrasts co ntrasts with the United States, States, where where transportatransportation conditioning are the the highest highest ( (although ti on and space space co nditioning are although in the United States process major user as as in process heat heat is a ma jor user well). Much of the energy used for residential well). Much for cooking countries coo king and process process heat in the developing developing co untries is is consumed consumed in China and India. Together Together their co nsumption of energy fo r coo king and industrial consumption for cooking pr ocess heat heat a ccounts fo ro ver 40 percent percent of process accounts for over of all all coo king and and process process heat heat energy energy used used by developing cooking by developing co untries, and and fo r well o ver o ne-quarter of countries, for over one-quarter of all all the energy co nsumed in devel o ping co untries. energy consumed in developing countries.

Prospects for Efficiency Improvements in Energy Production and Use

In creasing energy energy supplies supplies in in the the "business business as as Increasing usual mode that that underlies underlies the the conventional conventional projecprojecusual' mode ti ons thus thus poses poses formidable formidable challenges. challenges. This This unforunfortions tunate fact suggests suggests that that alternative alternative approaches approaches for for tunate fact pr o viding the vital energy servi c es needed fo r rapid providing the vital energy services needed for rapid e conomic and and social social development development should should be be investiinvestieconomic gated, focusing on on efficiency efficiency improvements. improvements. gated, focusing OT A examined examined the the following following energy-related energy-related servservOTA i ces: cooking, cooking, lighting, lighting, and and appliances appliances in in the the resiresiices: dential and commercial commercial sectors; sectors; process process heat heat and and dential and ele ctrical and and mechanical mechanical drive drive iin industry and and electrical n industry agri culture; and and transportation transportation (see (see ch. ch. 3). 3). For For the the agriculture; devel oping countries countries as as a a whole, whole, the the largest largest energy energy developing end use use markets markets are are residential/commercial residential/commercial and industry, which together together account account for for roughly roughly 85 85 industry, which per cent of of the the energy energy used used by by final final consumers, consumers, percent in cluding traditional traditional energy. energy. Considerable Considerable differdifferincluding en ces exist, exist, however, however, among among developing developing nations. nations. In In ences Af rica, the the residential/commercial residential/commercial sector sector constitutes constitutes Africa, a cularly high high share share (mostly (mostly in rm of a parti particularly in the the fo form of bi omass fuels fuels for for cooking), cooking), while while industry's industrys share share is is biomass quite low. In In Latin Latin America, America, transportation transportation accounts accounts quite low. fo r an an exceptionally exceptionally high high share share of of the the total, total, whereas whereas for its share in India and China is quite l o w. its share in India and China is quite low.

A range of chnologies are urrently used o A wide wide range of te technologies are c currently used t to pr ovide energy energy services services in in developing developing countries. countries. For For provide example, cooking technologies technologies include include stoves stoves using using example, cooking ffuelwood, uelwood, charcoal, charcoal, kerosene, kerosene, liquid liquid petroleum petroleum gas, gas, natural gas, and and ele ctricity, all fferent characcharacnatural gas, electricity, all with with di different teristi cs. These These technologies technologies vary teristics. vary widely widely in in their their energy an open open f ire, for for example, example, only only energy efficiency. In an fire, ab out 15 15 percent percent of ntained in uelabout of the the energy energy co contained in f fuelw ood goes goes into into cooking. cooking. In contrast, in modern wood I n contrast, in a a"modern" gas stove about about 60 60 percent percent of ntained gas stove of the the energy energy co contained in gas is king. The in the the gas is used used in in coo cooking. The wide wide range range of of e fficiencies in in the the current current stock stock of of stoves stoves suggests suggests efficiencies o pportunities for for increasing increasing efficiencies efficiencies of stock opportunities of the the stock and therefore providing providing more more cooking cooking services services with and therefore with less energy. less energy.
There are als also differences in e efficiencies in There o di fferences in fficiencies in pr o viding energy servi c es in the industrial se c t o r providing energy services in the industrial sector industrial process heat heat and ctric and chanical industrial process and ele electric and me mechanical drive. The tw o largest devel o ping co untry drive. The two largest developing country energy energy co nsumers, India India and China, currently currently rely n consumers, and China, rely o on several te c hn o l o gies that are a generati o n o r m o re several technologies that are a generation or more behind the state state of and are ch less behind the of the the art, art, and are mu much less energy -efficient than than technologies technologies now now being being used used energy-efficient in the United United States States and and other other countries. countries. Integrated Integrated in the ir on and r example, iron and steel steel plants plants in in China China and and India, India, fo for example, use twice as as much much energy energy per per t on of rude steel steel use twice ton of c crude pr oduced as as integrated integrated plants plants in States produced in the the United United States and Lower e fficiencies are are als of requently and Japan. Japan. Lower efficiencies also frequently o bserved in in the the transportation transportation sector. sector. observed

A n analysis analysis of An of the the energy energy supply supply industry industry in in devel oping countries countries similarly similarly indicates indicates much much lower lower developing

Panel on Climate Change, Policymalcers of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change: Report from Group 38 the 1990, p. 1 1 to to1the May 1990, p. 8. 8. n F C C , " May et t Environmental and Economic Implications of Rising Sea and Subsiding Deltas: The Nile and Bengal Examples, 3e 9 r 18, pp. 1989. AMBIO, pp. 340-345, 340-345,1989. . g vol. 18, o 1 .v e Dr . n M m i en

Chapter 1--Introduction and a n d Overview Overview 19 19 Chapter

operating o perating efficiencies efficiencies than than in in the the industrial industrial councountries. In electricity generation, for example, In electricity generation, for example, thermal thermal power p ower plants frequently frequently operate operate far far below below design capacity and efficiency. Transmission capacity and efficiency. Transmission and and distribudistribution losses (including unaccounted for tion losses (including unaccounted for losses, losses, ununmetered use, use, etc.) etc.) are are frequently frequently over over 15 15 percent, percent, substantially higher than losses losses in industrial country country 40 Re fineries also also o perate a at much lower lower Refineries operate t much systems. 40 efficiencies. e fficiencies.

"poor" poor performance performance reflects reflects many factors: factors: poor poor repair and maintenance, spare repair maintenance, unavailability of spare parts, low low fuel fuel quality, older older equipment, unsatisfacunsatisfactory t ory management, lack lack of of skilled workers, workers, problems problems of reaching dispersed populations served by inadeof reaching populations served inadequate transport pricing quate transport systems, and inappropriate inappropriate pri cing and allocation and allocation systems. systems. The existence of wide differences The existence of differences between between operaoperational ti onal efficiencies efficiencies in reasonably reasonably standardized standardized operaoperations ti ons (e.g., (e.g., cooking, cooking, steelmaking, steelmaking, electricity electricity generageneration, refining), ti on, and petroleum petroleum re fining), both both among among developdeveloping countries ing countries and between the developing developing and industrial countries, dramatic improveindustrial countries, suggests suggests that dramati c impr ovements efficiencies are are possible. possible. However, However, the the ments iin n efficiencies imp ortance of of factors factors other other than technology technology must be importance must be re cognized for for the the role role they they play play in improving recognized i n improving e fficiencies. The The policy policy environment environment in parti cular is efficiencies. particular c rucial to to the the adoption adoption of technologies. crucial of new technologies.

Energy supplies supplies in many many developing developing countries countries are n unreliable, imposing imposing a a heavy heavy economic economic burden. burden. IIn India, for for example, example, losses losses sustained sustained by by industry industry due to t o unreliable unreliable electric electric power power supplies in recent recent years are estimated estimated to to represent represent 2 2 percent percent of of annual GNP, GNP, n ot including including losses losses iin agriculture or or losses losses and and not n agriculture in convenience experienced experienced by by residential residential and and comcominconvenience mercial for mer cial users. users. Similar Similar losses losses have have been been estimated estimated fo r Pakistan. Furthermore, Furthermore, electricity electricity supplies supplies in in many many co untries are are of of poor poor quality, quality, discouraging discouraging the the use use of of countries e fficient technologies technologies that that are are critically critically dependent dependent efficient o n high-quality high-quality energy energy supplies. supplies. on In characterizing important important parts parts of of the the energy energy In characterizing ine ff system as " wever, should be be system as in e ff ii cciient, ent, hh oo w e v e r, iit t should realized that in in many many cases cases users users and and producers producers are are realized that a cting logically logically given given the the framework framework of of resources, resources, acting in centives, and and disincentives disincentives within within which which they they incentives, make their decisions. decisions. One One of of the the reasons reasons that that poor poor make their h ouseholds use use fuelwood fuelwood inefficiently inefficiently is is that that they they households la ck the the financial financial means means to to buy buy more more efficient efficient lack coo king systems. systems. Industrial Industrial users users must must cope cope with with cooking antiquated machinery and and erratic erratic fuel fuel supplies supplies of of antiquated machinery un certain quality. quality. On On the the supply supply side, side, the the record record of uncertain of

M ore efficient efficient ways ways of of pr oviding energy energy services services More providing fo r development, development, including including b oth technologies technologies and for both and the institutional and and policy policy mechanisms mechanisms determining determining the institutional their rate of of adoption, adoption, will will be be presented presented in their rate in a a later later rep ort of of this OTA assessment. assessment. Attention Attention will o be report this OTA will als also be paid to the the energy energy implications implications of of di fferent developdeveloppaid to different ment strategies. Some Some development development strategies strategies are are ment strategies. ass ociated with high energy energy use. use. B But developing associated with high u t developing co untries a at the beginning beginning of development countries t the of the the development pr ocess may may be be able able to to capitalize capitalize on on technology technology t o process to devel op toward toward modern modern economies economies without without the the high high develop energy growth that earlier characterized characterized the path t o energy growth that earlier the path to industrialization. industrializati on.

and distribution distribution losses losses in dense urban 401n the United States, for for example, transmission transmission and in dense urban service service areas areas are are between between 6 6 and and 7 7 percent percent and and i n rural rural service areas nearer 9 9 to to 10 10 percent. percent. areas nearer

n Developing 20 .Energy Energy i in Developing Countries Countries

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Chapter Chapter 2

Energy and Economic Development

Contents Contents
Intr oduction and and Summary Summary ... Introduction . * .* . . *.. . ... * ..*** ,*. **. ..**, *,** *.. .... .,. e*. **. ..**, *,** ***. *+. e* 8****, v* *e. 25 E conomic Development Development and and Its Its Impact Impact on on Energy Energy *.... Economic * ** , ,. * ........ **** * * * * , *** * * * . ** * * . **** * * * * 25 25 Rising Populations . .* * *.. .-F . *.. * .*... .**. ** * * * * * * Rising Populations * * 26 ** *.. ... .+. *.. ... .**. ... *.., * ** . * , * ** * * , * * , ****** e, * q + q + 6 + 26 Higher Living Standards Standards .* Higher Living ... *... * * e , 27 . . * 0 *.. ..* ..*. ... ... ... ... ... ** +o***. **** .* c*. ..** *. o c*. 27 27 Changes in With Changes in Energy Energy Consumption Consumption W ith Economic Economic Development Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 * , projected n Developing pr ojected Energy Energy Consumption Consumption iin Developing Countries Countries ., *...****.*....,,+,,.**.**,* 33 33 The Energy Sector Sector and and the the Macroeconomy Macroeconomy ... The Energy . * .* . . ..** *****6+,**** ..** *,. *,. ...* ,.. *.. * ... + *+ ***** 6+,****.* 34 34 cing Energy Energy Supplies Supplies ** ...* ,*** .,** *** ***c c** Q ** ** **. *Q**,* *Q**,* 34 . Finan Financing ... . ... * .*... ... , * * . . .,** * ,Q * *, , ** * * ,, **** **** **. 34 Supply Reliability Reliability ... ..* Energy Supply * ........,. * *..**.** **+ .***** * * * * * ,,* * ,,. . ** * * ,** * * ,***** *****+ * ,,* . * 36 +. ** +* ** *,,. 36 * Energy Energy Pricing and and Demand Demand Management Management .** Energy Pricing ... . ... . *.* . . .... ... . ... * .. .*. ,, 36 *+**e* **, **, Q*.,*+ 36 Energy and The The Traditional Traditional Sector Sector . Energy and . .. ** . . ... . *.* . . ... ... # * e,#* <.*** * ,* *. . *a * *,*** * .. ** 39 ... .,. ... .., ** 39 * Seas o nality Seasonality . * . .., * . * . ... ... . * , ** . .. ** **** ** * **** * . ** *co******* , *** ,++ *** . * . * . . * , * * . . * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 40 o ee + 40 + * Inequities in Resource Res ource Distribution Distribution and and Access Access . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Inequities in 42 * c o * * * * * * * ** , The Role of of Women Women ... ... ... ... ... .,. ** . .. * . **** *** * The Role * * . ..*. * * * * ***.**, 42 o .**, 4 e. **** **, Q * a*, ***, o** 42 * * * e The R le *of of* Commercial C,ommer Biomass in in the the Rural Rural Economy Economy *. ** The * .....,. * * ..... * ** * 43 % . Role * o* * * cial , Biomass .,, **** 43 * * * , * , Q * + * + * * * C o n c lusi o n * *.. ... * ,.. ,... **, ,,*#** ,* **** **** **. **** ,4. oo*** &*+ **c@. 44 Conclusion . *.. . . *.. . .... * *** * * * * *, **4 * *** * 44 e* o#** * +* ., * * *. ... *.. **, . ,
* * * . * * . * 8 * * * * 6 , - , , v * * ** * 2 5 c * *

Page Page

, 4

* ,4. . * *** Boxes +x Box B 8o, Page Page 2 Factors Affecting Affecting Population Population Increase Increase ... ... .*. ... ... ... ... .., .,. ,,*, ,**, ,ea #*+ 28 2-A. * -A. Factors 2 Energy Conservation Initiatives Initiatives in in ASEAN ASEAN Countries Countries . . . . . . . . . 3 2-B. Conservation . . . . . . . . . .9 . . . . . . 39 * -B.*Energy * c Figures @ Figure Figure P a g e Page . 2-1. World Population Growth, 1750-2100 in Industrial and Developing Regions . . . . . . 26 2 2 -2. Average Average Annual Annual Increase Increase in in Population Population Per Per Decade Decade in Industrial 2-2. in Industrial and Devel o ping Regi o ns, 1750 2100 and Developing Regions, 1750-2100 . ... . . . ... . . . ... . . *** * . ...* .. * . .,. * * .. *,,*,, * * 2 6 1 26 2 -3. Historical Historical and and Projected Projected Global Global Population, Population, 1950-2025 1950-2025 ....... 2-3. . . ~ . . .. . . . . . .* . . * .27 ..27 2 -4. Projected Projected Shares Shares of of Global Global Population, Population, 2000 2000 and and 2025* 2025 2-4. ..,..... , ** ......,+ , * , * ,** ,. * ** . 227 7 W 2 -5. Commercial Commercial Energy Energy Consumption Consumption and and Economic Economic Development Development in 2-5. in o ** * * * * Sele cted Countries Countries . ... ... ..*. ..*. ... ... ... ... .,. .,. *.. *.. ... ... ... ... ,*, ,*, *** .. **. **** Selected . . ... ***. .**. **** * * Q. *e** .**o+ o**,** 31 31 r 2 -6. Commercial C o mmer c ial Energy C o nsumpti o n and S oc ial Devel o pment 2-6. Energy Consumption and Social Development Q l * * * * * in Selected Countries Countries ***** **. .*. .*. ..$, .*. ... ... ... ... .*, .*, * .. ,,, ** in * * * **. , .*. *.. * *** * * .* * , ,,*+*+* vye 32 < ,, a *** , ** c <a 32 . Selected 4 d , ,. 3 3 2 7. Energy Intensity and E co n o mi c Devel o pment, 1960-2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 2-7. Energy Intensity and Economic development, 1960-2000 % * * P 2 -8. Historical Historical and and Projected Projected Energy Energy Consumption Consumption in Developing C ountries: 2-8. in Developing Countries: o W o rld Energy C o n f eren c e M o derate Pr o j e c ti o ns World Energy Conference "Moderate" Projections . .... * ..,......,. , , . * * *** * . . .. ** ,, ****** * * * * 34 34 p-9. Seasonal 2 Seasonal Pattern Pattern of of Energy Energy Expenditure Expenditure on on Agricultural Agricultural and and Other Other Essential Essential Tasks: Tasks: 2-9. dult Farmers, Farmers, Genieri Genieri Village Village ... ... u A .*, ,., ** .+ *+ + 41 Adult . ... ...* ... ... ..., .*. .*, * 0 *o** * * . , ., ** .+ ***** * * * ,,* 41 l Tables a Tables Table t Page Page 2-1. Energy Intensities Intensities in in Selected Selected Countries Countries . .......... *..* * 3 i Energy 2-1. * * ** ......+, + , * * .** , .,.... . . @@****** * * * * * * . .* 2 32 2 2. C o mmer c ial Energy C o nsumpti o n, 1985 and Pr o j e c ti o ns fo r 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 2-2. Commercial Energy Consumption, 1985 and Projections for 2010 3 5 o 2 -3. Estimated Annual Energy Investment as a Percentage of Annual Total Public 2-3. n Estimated Annual Energy Investment as a Percentage of Annual Total Public Investment During the Early 1980s .......,.......... * +.. * ,++ * + * ..........,,. . *, + + *** * * * 35 35 G Investment During the Early 1980s . r o w t

Chapter 2 Chapter

Energy and Economic Development Development

Introduction and Summary
This chapter chapter examines examines the the two-way two-way linkage linkage bebetween energy energy and and economic economic development development in develdeveloping economic o ping countries--how countries--how the process process of e conomic development n turn, devel opment impacts impacts energy, energy, and and how, how, iin turn, developments devel opments in the energy sector sector can can affect affect ecoeconomic n omic growth. growth. In the the course course of of economic economic development, development, commercommerc ial energy energy consumption consumption is is observed observed to to increase increase cial f aster than than economic economic activity. activity. There There are are a a number number of of faster reas o ns fo r this : the gr o wth of me c hanized agri c ul reasons for this: the growth of mechanized agriculture and manu f a c turing, the co nstru c ti o n of a m o d ture and manufacturing, the construction of a mod, in c reased transp o r em em infrastructure, infrastructure, urbanization, urbanization increased transportati on of of goods goods and and services, services, rapid rapid expansion expansion iin tation n o wnership of of consumer consumer appliances, appliances, and and the the substitusubstituownership tion ti on of of commercial commercial for for traditional traditional fuels. fuels. The The absolute absolute am o unt of traditi o nal energy co nsumed als o continamount of traditional energy consumed also continues t o rise, alth o ugh its share of t o tal energy ues to rise, although its share of total energy co nsumption falls. falls. consumption In the years years to to come, come, high high rates rates of of economic economic In the gr owth will will be be needed needed in in developing developing countries countries to to growth pr ovide their their rapidly rapidly growing growing populations populations w with provide ith impr oved living living standards. standards. I If fc urrent trends trends in improved current in energy and economic economic growth growth continue, continue, commercial commercial energy and energy consumption iin the developing developing countries countries energy consumption n the co uld more more than than double double over over the the next next 40 40 years years could a ccording to to most most projections. projections. Supplies Supplies of of biomass biomass according f uels would would also also need need to to increase increase substantially substantially to to fuels meet the needs needs of of growing growing rural rural populations populations and and the the meet the urban poor. urban poor. This prospect raises raises a a dilemma. dilemma. On On the the one one hand, hand, This prospect in creases in in energy energy supplies supplies on on this scale could could increases this scale severely strain financial financial resources resources in in the the developing developing severely strain co untries. The energy se c t o r abs o rbs a large share of countries. The energy sector absorbs a large share of available fo reign ex c hange and c apital investment. available foreign exchange and capital investment. C onsequently, energy energy supply supply policies policies have have farfarConsequently, rea c hing impa c ts o n o ther devel o pment pri o rities. In -reaching impacts on other development priorities. In many devel o ping co untries, f inan c ial res o ur c es may many developing countries, financial resources may n ot be be adequate adequate to to increase increase commercial commercial energy energy not supplies o n the s c ale pr o j e c ted ab o ve. supplies on the scale projected above. On the other other hand, hand, inability inability to to supply supply needed needed On the energy can frustrate frustrate economic economic and and social social developdevelopenergy can ment. Already in in many many countries, countries, the the unreliability unreliability ment. Already
and poor to and poor quality of energy supplies supplies lead lead t o major major costs co sts to to the economy economy through through wasted wasted materials, stoppage st oppage of operations, operations, and investment investment in standby standby equipment. equipment. factor Energy prices prices are a key f actor in the development development of a country's of countrys energy supply infrastructure, infrastructure, through through their impacts on on the the amount amount of used in the their impacts of energy energy used e conomy, the the technologies technologies adopted, adopted, and, and, in some economy, i n some c ases, the the direction direction of of industrial development. development. EnEncases, ergy prices iin developing countries countries are are typically typically ergy prices n developing sub ject t o price price regulation regulation thr oughout the distribusubject to throughout the distributi on chain. chain. The The average average level level of prices, tion of energy energy prices, parti cularly in in the the electricity electricity sector, sector, are are reported reported t o particularly to be too low low in many countries countries to to ensure ensure the sectors be too in many the sector's ffinancial inancial viability. viability.

A lthough commercial commercial fuels fuels attract attract the the most most p olicy Although policy attenti on, two-thirds two-thirds o of developing world's worlds attention, f the the developing p opulation live ow standards standards of population live in in rural rural areas areas with with l low of This populapopulaliving based on on low-resource low-resource farming. farming. This living based tion to fuels ti on has little access access t o commercial commercial f uels and relies largely on traditi onal sources sources of largely on traditional of energy, energy, gathered gathered and consumed locally, locally, and and animal and consumed animal and and human human energy, often used used at very low low efficiencies. efficiencies. The The main main energy, often at very fo rm of of traditi onal energy energy used used is is wood, wood, an an increasincreasform traditional ingly scarce and and unsustainable unsustainable resource. resource. This This imimingly scarce p oses a a special special hardship hardship on on th ose-mainly women women poses those-mainly and hildren-responsible fo r gathering and c children-responsible for gathering it. it. Dung Dung and crop wastes, wastes, the the other other forms forms of of energy and crop energy widely widely used for cooking cooking when when wood wood is not available, available, have have used for is not alternative uses alternative uses as soil soil nutrients.

Economic Development Development and Its Impact on Energy

The pace o of economic g gr and level of The pace f economic ro owth wth a n d level of e conomic activity activity have have major major impacts impacts on on the the energy energy economic se ctor. From From 1965 1965 to to 1987, 1987, for for example, example, the econosector. the economies developing co untries grew mies of of the the developing countries grew at at an an annual annual average of 5.3 5.3 percent, percent, and and their nsumption of average of their co consumption of co mmercial energy energy grew grew by by just just over over 6 percent.l commercial 6 percent.' These energy gr owth rates were higher ose in These energy growth rates were higher than than th those in the countries over over the same peri od. As As a the industrial industrial countries the same period. a result, oping co untries share obal result, the the devel developing countries' share of of gl global co mmercial energy energy consumption consumption also also rose-from rose-from 17 17 commercial

'World Bank, World Development Report 1989 (New York, NY: Oxford University Press,1989), pp. pp. 167 167 and and 173. 173.

33-718 00 - - 9 90 0 - - 22

2 5 25

26 .Energy n Developing Energy i in Developing Countries Countries

2 percent 1987 . per cent in 1973 1973 to to 23 23 percent percent in 1987. High rates of economic e conomic growth growth will continue continue to to be be needed needed in the 1 developing devel w to provide proo vide fthe rapidly growing growing H i g hoping r aworld torld e sto population p opulation with with improved improved living living standards. standards.

Figure 2-1WorId 2-1World Population Growth, Growth, 1750-2100 Figure in Industrial and Developing Regions in
12 12 Population iin n billions Population billions
T 7

Rising Populations
accelerated a ccelerated growth growth in in the the global global population population (see (see figure f igure 2-1). 2-l). The The largest largest additions additions to to global global populapopulation ti on have have been been in the developing developing countries countries and have occurred occ urred primarily primarily in the past past 50 years years (see (see figure figure 2-2). 2 -2). Box Box 2-A 2-A discusses discusses factors factors affecting affecting population population growth. gr owth. centuries The past two c enturies have have witnessed witnessed sharply

1 10 0
8 6 4 2
Industrial regions 0 0 1750 1 8 1800 0 0 1 8 1850 5 0 1 9 1900 0 0 1 9 1950 5 0 2 0 2000 0 0 2 02050 5 0 2 1 2100 00 1750

A lthough current current projections projections of of global global population population Although gr owth over over the the next next 35 35 years years di ffer (see (see figure figure 2-3), 2-3), growth differ there is is consensus consensus on on several several major major points: points: The worlds worlds population population is is projected projected to to increase increase The despite assumptions assumptions o of continued declines declines iin f continued n f ertility rates. rates. The The rate rate of of increase increase in global fertility in global p opulation, while while lower lower than than in in the the past, past, still still population, represents a large large increase increase iin numbers o of represents a n numbers f pe ople. World World B Bank estimates,3 whi ch are are people. a n k estimates,' which similar to similar to both both the the United United Nations Nations medium medium pr ojection and and the the U.S. U.S. Department Department of of AgriculAgriculprojection ture projection, project project an an increase increase iin global ture projection, n global p opulation f rom 5.3 5.3 billion billion in o 8.4 population from in 1990 1990 t to 8.4 billion billi on in 2025, 2025, an increase increase of 3.1 billion. billion. Virtually all all of of the the increase increase will will come come from from the the Virtually devel oping countries. countries. According According to to the the World World developing Bank projection, f fo r example, example, population population Bank projection, or gr owth in in the the industrial industrial countriesi.e., countries--i.e., nations nations growth in the Organization Organization for for Economic Economic Cooperation Cooperation in the and Development (OECD), (OECD), the the U. U. S. S. S. S. R., R., and and and Development Eastern Europe-is expected expected to to add add only only about about Eastern Europe-is 125 million, or or about about 4 4 percent percent of of the global 125 million, the global in crease (see (see figure figure 2-4). 2-4). The The population population of of the the increase devel oping countries countries is is estimated estimated to to rise rise from from developing its present level level of of 4.1 4.1 billion billion to to 7.1 7.1 billion billion in in its present 2025, in c reasing their share of w o rld p o pula 2025, increasing their share of world populati o n f r o m 77 t o 88 per c ent ( see f igure 2 4 ) . tion from 77 to 88 percent (see figure 2-4). Population growth growth in in China China is is projected projected to to be be Population quite m o derate, as c urrent l o w rates of gr o wth quite moderate, as current low rates of growth are assumed to to be be maintained. maintained. Projections Projections of of are assumed China s p o pulati o n gr o wth are c riti c al be c ause China's population growth are critical because of its large large share share of of the the global global total. total. of its According tto o World World B Bank projections, tthe According a n k projections, he biggest increases in in population population are are predicted predicted to to biggest increases

SOURCE: SOURCE: Thomas Merrick, Population Population Reference Bureau, Bureau, World "World PopulaPopulation Transition, Population Bulletin, vol. 1986, tion in Transition," vol. 41, 41, No. No. 2, 2, April 1986, update based on United United Nations Nations 1989 1989 projections. projections. update based

Figure 2-2Average Annual Increase in Population Figure Per Decade in Industrial and Developing Regions, Per 1750-2100 1750-2100
~ Population Population iin n millions 1 0 -~ 1 0 0 0 ~

80

N N N NNN

Developing Developing regions regions

Industrial regions Industrial regions

60 -

40 40
20

1E 20 0 11 T '2 rr
1750 1750

Il

_- ~ T T

T - - r

1 8 1800 0 0 1 8 1850 5 0 1 9 1900 0 0 1 9 1950 5 0 2 02000 0 0 2 02050 5 0 2 12100 00

SOURCE: SOURCE: Thomas Merrick, Population Population Reference Reference Bureau, Bureau, World "World PopulaPopulation Transition, Population Bulletin, vol. tion in Transition," vol. 41, 41, No. No. 2, 2, April April 1986, 1986, update based on United United Nations Nations 1989 1989 projections. projections. update based

0 4 1
1 1

co me f rom Af rica and Asia, Asia, whi ch will ccount come from Africa which will a account fo r 30 30 and and 58 58 percent percent respectively respectively of otal for of the the t total gl obal increase. increase. I In Asia the the large large addition addition t o global n Asia to p opulation derives derives from from the existing large population the existing large p opulation base; base; rates rates of of p opulation gr owth are are population population growth relatively ow. In Africa, on on the other hand, hand, the relatively l low. In Africa, the other the primary c ause is the rapid in c rease in p o pula primary cause is the rapid increase in populati o n that, despite the relatively l o w p o pulati o n, tion that, despite the relatively low population, in creases its its share share of of the total population population f rom increases the total from a c urrent 12 per c ent t o 19 per c ent in 2025. a current 12 percent to 19 percent in 2025.

Energy Conference, Perspective 2000-2020 14th Congress, Montreal 1989 (Paris: 1989), Table 2. 2 and My Europe, Population W 3 o Human Department, R Population Edition, Population and and HumanResources Department, working working paper paper 328 328 (Washington, DC: DC: World World Bank), Bank), November November 1989, 1989, table table 5. 5. r o ld d o E l n f

Chapter 2--Energy and Economic Development 27 Chapter Development 27

Figure 2-3-Historical 2-3-Historical and and Projected Projected Global Global Population, 1950-2025 Population, 1950-2025
10 10 n billions Population iin billions
U.N. (low, (low, reed, high) high) - World Bank -1 1 W o r l d B a n k
--

Figure 2-4-Projected Shares of Global Population, Figure 2000 and 2000 and 2025 2025
1 10 0 Billions Billions

8 8

6 6

I I 1m. Dienvdeul ospt ri ni agl rreeggi oi onns s I

m Developing regions I 1= industrial regions I

World Bank World Bank projections projections

6 6

6 6

4 4

4 4

2 2

1950 1950

6variations Variations among these these projection arise from differences dlfferences in projected future fertility rates, rates, in turn are based based on on many many assumptions, assumptions, such as as the the in t u r n are effects of government policies, GNP per capita, ctors. literacy, and and sociocultural sociocultural f a factors. 1 7 5 2 0 0 0 2000 1975 Year Year

2 2

\\\ \

L 8 0 1
,

2025 2025

1
I

23% 1 23%
\

20% 20%
1

16% 2025 2025

1990 1990

SOURCE: Office of Technology Assessment, 1990, based on data in United Nations, World Population Population Prospects 1988 (New (New York, NY: United Nations, 1989); Rodolfo Bulatao et al., Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMN) (EMN) Region Population Projections, 1989-90 1989-90 Edition, World Bank, Population and Human Resources Department, Department, Washington, DC, DC, working paper series 328. November 328, November 1989. 1989.

2000 2000 Year Year

SOURCE: SOURCE: RodolfoBuiatao et et al., al., Europe, Europe, Middle East, East, and and Africa (EMN) Region Region Population Population Projections, Projections, 1989-90 1989-90 Edition, Edition, World World Bank, Bank, Washington, Population Population and Human Human Resources Department, Washington, DC, DC, working paper series 328, 328. November November 1989. 1989.

Th ough there there will will no no doubt doubt be be some some unforeseen unforeseen Though divergen ce from from these these population population paths paths (changes (changes in in divergence f ertility rates rates are are difficult difficult to to predict; predict; the the impact impact of of fertility the AIDS epidemic epidemic in in Africa Africa on on fertility fertility rates rates and and the AIDS p opulation growth growth is is unknown), unknown), it it is is clear clear that there population that there will be a a large large increase increase in in the the world's worlds population population in will be in the decades ahead, ahead, accompanied accompanied by by a a powerful powerful the decades upward pressure on on energy energy consumption. consumption. Even Even with with upward pressure n o increase increase in in per-capita per-capita energy energy consumption, consumption, the the no predi cted rise rise in in the the global global population population by by 2025 2025 predicted implies a 75 75 percent percent increase increase in total commercial commercial implies a in total energy consumption. energy consumption.

35 yearn-a rise average per -capita in comes of , 35 yearn-a rise in in average per-capita incomes of, say, 3 percent percent per per year economic gr owth say, 3 year implies implies economic growth 4 rates ound 4.6 cent annually. rates of of ar around 4.6 per percent annually.' It ot be easy t oa chieve su ch rates owth. It may may n not be easy to achieve such rates of of gr growth. The current indebtedness indebtedness of of many many developing developing nanaThe current ti ons has has added o the fficult tasks tions added t to the already already di difficult tasks of of e conomic management, management, and and threatens threatens to to jeopardize jeopardize economic pr ospects of of attaining even modest modest improvements improvements in prospects attaining even in standards of living. The foreign foreign debt debt of oping standards of living. The of devel developing co untries increased increased rapidly 1970s and countries rapidly in in the the 1970s and 1980s 1980s and out $1.3 and in i n early early 1989 1989 was was estimated estimated at at ab about $1.3 trillion. of this increase and the rise rise in trilli on. 5As As a result of increase and interest ce as otal exp orts interest rates, rates, debt debt servi service as a a share share of of t total exports of goods and and services services is now double double what of goods is now what it it was was in in the 1970s.6 the early early 1970s.'

Higher Living Standards

The major major development development challenge challenge is is to to provide provide higher standards of of living living for for the the rapidly rapidly rising rising higher standards p opulations of of the the developing developing world. world. This This task task is is all all populations the more urgent urgent because because of of the the declining declining levels levels of of the more per -capita income income in in many many of of the countries of of Latin per-capita the countries Latin A merica and and Africa Africa iin recent years. years. Given Given the the America n recent pr ojected rise rise iin developing country country populations populations projected n developing an annual average average of of about about 1.6 1.6 percent percent over over the the next next an annual

Changes Changes in Energy Consumption With Economic Development Development The economic expansion expansion necessary necessary tto o achieve achieve The economic higher standards of of living r the increasing populapopulahigher standards living fo for the increasing ti on of of the the developing developing world world would would be be expected expected to to tion

rate projection is based on annual economic rates of 4.4 Average 4 growthrates of 5.3 5.3 percent percent annually annually are are assumed assumed in in the the series series of T growthrates of of projections projections in in Alan Alan S. S. Marine Marine andLeoSchrattenholzer, InternationalE "InternationalE nergyWorkshop: nergyWorkshop: Overview of Responses,Stanford Stanford University h Overview of Poll Poll Responses, University International International Energy Energy Project, California, California, July July 1989. 1989. The The Intergovernmental Intergovernmental Panel Panel on on Climate Climate Change, Change, Appendix Report of on Emissions Emissions Scenarios e "Appendix Report of the the Expert Expert Group Group on Scenarios (Response (Response Strategies Strategies Working Group Group Steering Steering Committee, Committee, Task Task A), A)," April April 1990, 1990, assumes high economic economic growth growth rates rates for for the the different different developing developing regions regions of percent annually, W high assumes of 4 4 to to 5 5 percent annually, and and 2.2 2.2 to to 3.0 3.0 percent percent annually annually for for the the low-growth low-growth case. o Nations Development r e, Development Report 1990 (New NY: Oxford University Press, 1990), p. 79. 5

lU principal and interest repayments are now much higher than new disbursements of long-term debt to developing countries. The net transfer 6 d n or outflow of developing countries $38 billion or outflow of resources resources from from the the developing countries amounted amounted to to $38 billion in in 1987, 1987, compared compared with with a a net net inflow inflow of of $35 $35billion billion in in 1981. 1981. See SeeWorld World T E i World Development Report Report 1989 (Washington DC: h Bank, 1989 (Washington DC: Oxford Oxford University University Press, Press, 1989), 1989), p. p. 18. 18. n t e e e s r d e g N p y

n Developing 28 .Energy Energy i in Developing Countries Countries

Box 24Factors 2-AFactors Affecting Affecting Population Increase Increase

Rates of Rates of population population growth growth are are determined determined by by the the balance balance between between birth birth and and death death rates. rates. Historically, Historically, death death rates were medical as rates were the the first first to to decline, decline, due due to to improvements improvements in in nutrition nutrition and and sanitation, sanitation, and and medi cal advances advances such such as vaccines. birth rates is what what happened happened in in the the va ccines. If If death death rates rates decline, decline, but but birth rates remain remain the the same, same, population population increases. increases. This This is presently developed to resulting presently developed world world from from 1750 1750 to to about about 1900. 1900. Around Around that that time, time, however, however, birth birth rates rates started started t o ffall, all, resulting in an of birth birth rates rates t to the in an overall overall reduction reduction in in the the rate rate of of population population increase. increase. This This process, process, the the lagged lagged adjustment adjustment of o the prior In the the devel developing world, the dem demographic pri or decline decline in in death death rates, rates, is is known known as as the the "demographic demographic transition. transition. " In oping w orld, the ographic transition still higher than in in the the transiti on is is far far from from complete: complete: death death rates rates have have fallen fallen dramatically--though dramatically--though they they are are still higher than industrial countries-but rate of in t total industrial countries-but birth birth rates rates remain remain high, high, leading leading to to a a continued continued rapid rapid rate of increase increase in otal population.' population. l Future trends in in population population will will similarly similarly depend depend on on the the balance balance between between death death and and birth rates. For For the Future trends birth rates. the devel oping countries, countries, opportunities opportunities still still exist exist to to reduce reduce death death rates rates through through improvements improvements in in medicine medicine and and public public developing health, and further further declines declines are are likely and desirable. desirable. On On the ch greater certainty o ver health, and likely and the side side of of birth birth rates, rates, there there is is mu much greater un uncertainty over f uture trends. trends. Birth Birth rates rates are are falling falling in in the the developing developing countries, countries, from from 41 41 crude crude births births per per th ousand population population in future thousand in the mid-1960s to to 30 30 per per thousand thousand at at present. present. Birth Birth rates rates in in the the developing developing countries, countries, however, however, are are still ove the mid-1960s still well well ab above death rates, and and more more than than twice twice the the birth birth rates rates in the industrial industrial countries countries (currently (currently 13 13 per per th ousand). death rates, in the thousand). The number of of births births depends depends on on three three factors: factors: fertility fertility rates, rates, the the age age structure structure of population, and and the The number of the the population, the size size of the population population base. base. of the The fertility rate rate is is defined defined as as "the the number of c hildren that would be be born born t oa a woman woman iif f she o live o The fertility number of children that would to she were were t to live t to the end of of her her childbearing childbearing years years and and bear bear children children at at each each age age in in accordance accordance with with prevailing prevailing age-specific age-specific fertility fertility the end rates. Fertility Fertility rates rates in in developing developing countries countries have have fallen fallen steadily, steadily, and and in in some some cases cases sharply, sharply, in recent years. years. For For rates." in recent the developing countries countries as as a a whole, whole, they they fell fell f rom 6.1 6.1 in in 1%5 1%5 to to 4 1987, with cularly sharp clines in the developing from 4 in in 1987, with parti particularly sharp de declines in China China and India, Sri Sri Lanka, Lanka, Korea, Korea, and and several several Latin American countries. countries. Despite Despite this op, they ch higher and India, Latin American this dr drop, they are are still still mu much higher than than in the industrial industrial countries. countries. There There are, are, however, however, exceptions exceptions to to this this declining declining trend; trend; fertility fertility rates rates have have not not changed changed in the in sub-Saharan African African countries, countries, and and in in some some of of these these countries countries the the rates rates appear appear t o have have risen. risen. in sub-Saharan to Fertility rates are are projected projected to to continue continue declining declining until end of entury, when when they ould be compared Fertility rates until the the end of the the c century, they w would be 3.3 3.3 compared with the current current 4. 4. While While this this assumption assumption seems seems reasonable reasonable in orical trends, with the in the the light light of of hist historical trends, the the determinants determinants of of f amily size size are are not not clearly clearly known, known, and and there there is is inevitably inevitably some some degree degree of certainty over over su ch assumpti ons. Br oadly family of un uncertainty such assumptions. Broadly speaking, fertility rates rates decline decline as as levels levels of of economic economic and and social social development development and and urbanization urbanization rise, rise, women's womens speaking, fertility edu cation improves, improves, and and knowledge knowledge about about family family planning planning spreads. spreads. The The connections connections between between these these factors factors are are not not education well -established, however, however, as as they they are are highly highly correlated, correlated, and and it therefore di fficult t o disentangle disentangle the the impact impact of well-established, it is is therefore difficult to of any any single determinant. A A higher higher share share of of the the population population living living in in urban urban areas, areas, other other things things equal, equal, maybe maybe of of parti cular sin g I e determinant. particular imp ortance in in lowering lowering fertility fertility rates. rates. In In rural rural farming farming communities, communities, many many benefits benefits accrue accrue to to a a large large family. family. Children Children importance pr ovide farm farm laborfrom Iaborfrom an an early early age age children children are are able able to to perform perform simple simple farm farm chores. chores. Children Children can can also also provide, provide, provide in the absence absence of of social social insurance, insurance, some some guarantee guarantee of of old old age age security security for for parents. parents. These These benefits benefits of large family family in the of a a large are not so so evident evident in the urban urban context, context, where where they may als o be be o utweighed by inancial co sts of orting a are not in the they may also outweighed by the the f financial costs of supp supporting a large family. large family. Other factors also also influence influence f ertility rates. rates. Cultural Cultural and and religious religious factors factors can can lead o higher amily size Other factors fertility lead t to higher f family size than than w ould otherwise otherwise be be predicted predicted by by indicators indicators of of s ocial and and economic economic development development and on. Algeria, Algeria, Libya, would social and urbanizati urbanization. Libya, Iran, and Iraq, Iraq, for for example, example, have have fertility fertility rates rates near near or or over over 6 6 despite despite their their relatively relatively high high per-capita per-capita incomes. incomes. On On Iran, and the o ther hand, aggressive g o vernment p o li c ies t o restri c t f amilies c an lead t o l o wer f amily sizes than predi c ted the other hand, aggressive government policies to restrict families can lead to lower family sizes than predicted by by o ther social social and and economic economic indicators. indicators. For For example, example, fertility fertility rates rates in in China, China, a a low-income low-income country, country, fell fell dramatically dramatically other f rom 6 6 in in the the mid-I960s mid-1960s to to 2.4 2.4 in 1987lower than r the untries 20 o-due largely from in 1987lower than the the rate rate fo for the industrial industrial co countries 20 years years ag ago-due largely t o strong strong government government policy. policy. to W ith a a given given fertility fertility rate, rate, the the number number of be higher higher iif fa opulation is With of births births will will be a larger larger share share of of the the p population is in in the the repr oductive age age group. group. In In the the developing developing countries, countries, young young people people comprise comprise a a higher higher share share of of the population. This This reproductive the population. p opulation structure structure gives gives a a much much greater greater "population population momentum" momentum (the (the tendency tendency fo rp opulation gr owth t o population for population growth to co ntinue even a f ter f ertility rates have f allen t o the repla c ement level ) . In the devel o ping co untries, the rising share continue even after fertility rates have fallen to the replacement level). In the developing countries, the rising share of women of of c hildbearing age age in the population population will continue t o exert ong upward n the opulation, of women childbearing in the will continue to exert str strong upward pressure pressure o on the p population, despite the expected expected drop drop in in fertility fertility rates. rates. despite the

Chapter 2--Energy 2--Energy and and Economic Economic Development Development 29 Chapter 29

fertility The size size of the population population base base is the third determinant determinant of of population population growth. growth. The The highest highest f ertility rates rates exist exist the global in the developing developing countries, countries, which which already already have have by far far the largest largest share share (77 (77 percent) percent) of of the global population. population. This This than would the case the high high ffertility rates means that larger numbers are being added added to to the world world population population than would be be the case iif f the ertility rates of the the gl global population. applied to to the industrial countries, countries, which which comprise comprise only only 15 percent percent of obal p opulation.
1989), pp. 164-165. 1 W o r goods services more to use m modern g oods and servi ces are m ore likely t o use odern lead to to comparable increases in energy consumpconsumplcomparable increases tion. n daddition, fuels. space in c cities encourages f uels. Scarcity Scarcity of spa ce in ities- en courages the ti on. IIn addition, several several factors factors inherent inherent in the B substituti substitution on of modern, modern, compact compact energy energy forms forms for for development process devel opment process tend tend to to cause cause commercial commercial a the biomass f uels. Finally, the gr owing foo d the bulkier biomass fuels. growing food energy use use iin developing countries countries to to rise rise more more n developing n k needs of the cities cities encourage encourage changes changes in agri cultural needs of agricultural rapidly than than the gross gross national national product. product. the , te chnology, which which usually usually involve involve increased increased use use of technology, of First, most of of the the people people in in developing developing countries countries First,W most m odern fuels fuels and and energy-intensive energy-intensive fertilizers. fertilizers. modern o n ow rely rely primarily on on traditional traditional biomass biomass fuels fuels now r primarily w ood, crop clrop wastes, wastes, animal animal dung-for dung-for their their energy energy wood, F ourth, modern modern manufacturing manufacturing technologies technologies and and Fourth, d needs. These needs. These fuels fuels are are often often difficult difficult and and timetimematerials have signi f i c antly l o wered the real co st of materials have significantly lowered the real cost of D co nsuming t o gather, are ine ff i c ient and awkward t o g oo ds --f r o m radi o s t o re f rigerat o rs consuming to gather, are inefficient and awkward to many co nsumer many consumer goods--from radios to refrigeratorse v can use, and can cause cause significant significant environmental environmental damdamuse, and co mpared with sts a a generation generation ag o, and obal compared with co costs ago, and gl global e age. Similarly, most people people in in developing developing countries countries age. Similarly, most distributi on systems systems have have increased increased their their accessibilaccessibildistribution l rely primarily o n human and animal mus c le p o wer rely primarily on human and animal muscle power ity. Pe o ple in devel o ping co untries c an thus pur ity. People in developing countries can thus puro fo r doing doing their work, work, despite despite its its low low efficiency efficiency and and p their for c hase many many consumer consumer goods goods at ar earlier oint in chase at a af far earlier p point in limited output. People People who who are are dependent dependent on on these these limited m output. the development cycle cycle than than did people in odays the development did people in t today's e traditi onal fo rms of energy will turn t o co mmer c ial traditional forms of energy will turn to commercial industrial co untries. This co uld in c rease energy use industrial countries. This could increase energy use n f uels and and technologies if if and and when when they they are are available available t technologies fuels in -t o mid -term b oth t o pr oduce the in the the near nearto mid-term both to produce the traditional and affordable. affoR rdable. Thus, Thus, the share of traditi onal fuels fuels in materials for consumer consumer goods goods andparticularly andparticularly fo r materials for for e t otal energy energy co nsumpti o n f alls sharply as devel o p total consumption falls sharply as developth o se that are intensive energy users, su c h as those t h a t are intensive energy users, such as p ment prooceeds. In In the the low-income low-income African African countries, countries, ment proceeds. m otorcycles, cars, cars, air air conditioners, conditioners, and and refrigerators refrigerators motorcycles, r traditi onal fuels account account for for as as much much as as 90 90 percent percent of traditional fuels of t o o perate them. to operate them. t t otal energy energy use. IIn the middle-income middle-income developing developing total use. n the 1 On ther hand, there are actors that On the the o other hand, there are f factors that may may co untries their share share falls falls typically typically to to under 9 their countries under 20 20 8 co unterbalan c e these trends and signi f i c antly m odcounterbalance these trends and significantly modper cent. percent. 9 erate the rapid rapid increase increase in energy demand. demand. erate the in energy ( Se cond, most developing countries are now buildSecond, N most developing countries are now buildFirst, the high high cost cost of developing national national energy energy ing their commercial, industrial, industrial, and and transportation transportation First, the of developing ing their e commercial, w in f rastru c tures and of pur c hasing energy t o supp ort in frastructures. This This requires requires large large quantities quantities of of infrastructures and of purchasing energy to support infrastructures. Y gr o wing energy demands co uld p o tentially sharply growing energy demands could potentially sharply energy -intensive materials such such as as steel steel and and cement. cement. energy-intensive materials o limit economic growth. growth. This This possibility possibility is A sa a result, result, energy use use in in the the nearnear- to to mid-term mid-term limit economic is highly highly As energy r k increases faster than income. undesirable given c urrent l o w, and in many cases increases faster income. undesirable given current low, and in many cases , de c lining, living standards in devel o ping co untries. declining, living standards in developing countries. N developing countries are experiencing Third, Third, developing countries are experiencing Y rapid urbanizati on. Urbanization Urbanization has has profound profound efefSe cond, the the expected expected growth growth in energy use use in rapid urbanization. Second, i n energy in : Othe f ects on on the amount amount and and type type of of energy energy consumed.' consumed.7 devel oping countries countries could could be be reduced reduced thr ough fects developing through x A s industry industry and the the labor labor force force become become more more concone fficiency improvements. improvements. Energy Energy is is now now used used much much As and efficiency f c entrated in urban urban areas, areas, transportation transportation needs needs grow. grow. less efficiently iin developing countries countries than than in centrated less efficiently n developing in o in industrial countries. F ood and and raw materials materials are are hauled hauled longer longer distances, distances, industrial countries. Traditional Traditional fuels fuels and technolotechnolor raw Food d gies are often often much much less less efficient efficient than modern ones: ones: and finished products are are marketed marketed over over a a wider and finished products wider gies are than modern U area. Urban h o useh o lds pur c hase a larger share of fo r example, the e ff i c ien c y of a typi c al w oo d -f ueled area. Urban households purchase a larger share of for example, the efficiency of a typical wood-fueled n their toital needs needs from from outside outside the the family, family, compared compared coo king stove stove is ust o ne-fourth that odern gas their total cooking is j just one-fourth that of of a am modern gas v with rural h o useh o lds, and co mmer c ial pr o viders of range. M o re o ver, the e ff i c ien c y of energy use with rural households, and commercial providers of range. Moreover, the efficiency of energy use in in the the e r vol. 10, No. 4, October 1989. s W. Jones, Urbanization and Energy Use in Energy Development Energy 7 i D t o y n P a

30 *Energy n Developing Energy i in Developing Countries Countries

modern n developing m odern sector sector iin developing countries countries is is often often far far lower l ower than that commonly commonly achieved achieved in the industrial countries. co untries. I If developing developing countries countries adopt adopt the most most efficient e fficient technologies technologies now now available, available, they they might might achieve a chieve average average energy energy efficiencies efficiencies that are higher than those those in industrial countries countries that have a large installed base installed base of of older older and and less less efficient efficient infrastrucinfrastructure and and equipment. equipment. Third, continued Third, continued economic economic development development is at s ome point point accompanied accompanied by by structural structural changes changes that that some shi ft investment investment from from energy-intensive energy-intensive infrastrucinfrastrucshift ture (roads, (roads, buildings, buildings, etc.) etc.) to to consumer consumer goods goods ( refrigerators, cars, cars, etc.) etc.) and and finally finally to to less less materialmaterial(refrigerators, intensive but higher higher value-added value-added goods goods such such as as intensive but pers onal services services and and electronics. electronics. personal

Energy use in in developing developing countries countries will will depend depend Energy use o n the the net net impact impact of of these these opposing opposing factors. factors. At At low low on levels of development development the the first first set set of of factors factors predompredomlevels of inates, and commercial commercial energy energy consumption consumption typitypiinates, and c ally rises rises much much faster faster than than gross gross domestic domestic product product cally ( GDP). Figure Figure 2-5 2-5 compares compares per-capita per-capita commercial commercial (GDP). energy consumption with with per-capita per-capita GDP GDP for for seseenergy consumption le cted countries, countries, ranging ranging from from lowest lowest to to highest highest lected in come. 8As As this this figure figure suggests, suggests, within within the the poorest poorest income. co untries commercial commercial energy energy consumption consumption rises rises countries f aster than than per-capita per-capita GNP; GNP; iin the middle-income middle-income faster n the co untries they they rise rise at at about about the same rate; rate; and and at at the the countries the same highest levels of in co me, the in c rease in t o tal highest levels of income, the increase in total co mmercial energy energy consumption consumption is is less less than than the the commercial in crease in in per-capita per-capita GNP. GNP. increase It is often often argued argued9 thatGNP that GNP per per capita, capita, a a measure measure It is of value of of e conomic o utput in on t o of the the value economic output in relati relation to

population p opulation size, is an inadequate and misleading indicator of standards of of living and well well-being. indi cator of -being. 10A An index recently index recently developed developed by the United Nations Nations Development Devel opment Programme, Programme, the the Human Human Development Development ll Index (HDI HDI) Index ), incorporates both economic and social three indica11 s ocial factors. factors. This This index index is is based based on on three indicaitors: p ctancy at birth, adult litera literacy, t on rs:c life lio fe rexpectancy expe cy, and o r-c a t e s per-capita purchasing The f first two per apita purchasing power.' power.12 The irst tw o are b o to sensitive to social social conditions conditions in a co untry and in sensitive country taddition hon reflect additi reflect underlying underlying conditions conditions of of income income distributi n. Average Average purchasing purchasing power power in a a country country e distribution. c o o gives some indication indication of material standards standards of gives of n o some living. A t l o w values, the HDI als o sh o ws a c l o se living. A low values, also shows close m i c p ositive association association with commercial energy conpositive with commercial energy cona sumpti on (see (see figure figure 2-6). 2-6). Higher Higher levels levels of sumption of HDI, HDI, n h owever, can can be be achieved achieved with however, with a a wide wide range range of of d co mmercial energy energy consumption. consumption. commercial

C ommercial energy energy is only part and fo r the Commercial is only part ( (and for the p oo rest co untries, a very small part ) of t o tal energy poorest countries, a very small part) of total energy co nsumption. I onal f uel co nconsumption. If f estimates estimates of of traditi traditional fuel consumpti on are are included included with mmercial f uel t o sumption with co commercial fuel to represent total energy energy consumption, consumption, the the association association represent total between per-capita energy energy consumption consumption and and GNP GNP between per-capita remains close, but but at ower income income levels levels the slope remains close, at l lower the slope is less steep steep than igure 2 -5.13 Adding commercial is less than in in f figure 2-5. and traditi energy together together t o make make t otal energy 1 and Atraditional d d o i nal n g energy to total energy co nsumpti on does d n ha owever, take into into account account consumption take c o m m eoes r not, cot,i however, l the lower f traditi traditional the lower conversion conversion efficiencies efficiencies o of onal energy compared with commercial energy. energy compared with commercial energy. I If f tradi traditi onal energy energy consumption consumption were were expressed expressed in comtional in com-

8The relationship between GDP GDP per capita and commercial energy energy consumption consumption shown shown in in figure figure 2-5 2-5 is is consistent consistent with with other other studies. A A per-capita income income elasticity elasticity for for fossil fossil fuels fuels of of about about 1.5 1.5 is is given given for for 13 13 industrial industrial and and developing developing countries countries in in Gerald Gerald Leach Leach et et al., al.,Energy and and Growth Growth (London: (London: 1986),p. 25. Butterworths, 1986),p. 25. That That is, is,a given increase in per-capita per-capita GNP GNP between between countries countries(purchasing power parity) is is associated associated with a50 50 percent percent higher higher increase i n t r ease in in consumption consumption of of fossil fossil fuels. fuels. Another Another study, study, based based on on 100 100 countries, countries, reports reports a a per-capita per-capita income income elasticity elasticity of of 1.26 1.26 (i.e., (i.e., a a given given increase increase in in per-capita GNP between between countries countries is is associated associated with a 26 26 percent percent higher increase in per-capita GNP with a higher increase i n commercial commercial energy energy consumption). consumption). See See B.W. Ang, A "A Cross-Sectional Economics (London: Butterworths, 1987), Cross-Sectional Analysis An o fof Energy Energy Output Output Correlation Correlation" Energy Energy Economics 1987), table table 3, 3, p. p. 280. 280. This This elasticity elasticity is is based based on on market exchange rates; rates; comparison comparison of power parity parity GNP market exchange of purchasing purchasing power GNP data data increases increases the the elasticity elasticity to to 1.8. 1.8. These These elasticities elasticities are are based based on on cross-sectional cross-sectional studies studies (i.e., (i.e., intercountry comparison comparison at at a a given given point point in in time, time, rather rather than than developments developments in in an an individual individual country country over over time), time), which which are are considered considered to to give a more give a more accurate accurate picture picture of of the the long-term long-term relationship relationship between between energy energy consumption consumption and and economic economic growth. growth. example, see Andrea Perez, a Way Development (Caracas, Venezuela: of the South Commission in 9 1989). Venezuela, 1989). P indicators. o toGNp may b r Wellbeing the Extent "Wellbeing and the Extent of of Its IfiReafintion in in Poor Poor Countries, Countries," The The Economic Journal, Journal, supplement supplement (Cambridge, (Cambridge, MA: MA: Royal Royal Economic Economic Society Society Basil Basil e a n and e 1990), pp. Blackwell, 1990), pp. 1-32. 1-32. The The argument argument is is made made here here that that GNP GNP per per capita capita also also correlates correlates closely closely with with political political and and civil civil rights. rights. i n a d e x Development Human Development Development Report Report 1990, 1990, op. o p. Ci t ., footnote 6, p. q u a t Nations e l 'United Development Programme, Human Cit., 6, p pp.11-16.

a m e a 12 m s u Une r poverty "poverty line" income income in in nine nine industrial industrial countries, countries, adjusted adjusted to to take take into into account account purchasing purchasing power, power, of of $4,861 $4,861 per per capita capita T p e 9, 25, for at for fossil fuels alone. lo t he Cross Sectional Analysis of cit., footnote e Ang, " A Cross Sectional Analysis of Energy Energy Output Output Correlation Correlation" op. op cit., footnote 9, 9, reports reports income income elasticities elasticities of of traditional traditional energy energy consumption consumption of of 3 A f v -0.95 a 10 10 percent percent increase increase in associated with ,s L (i.e., -0.95 (i.e., a in GNP GNP per per capita capita is is associated with a a 9.5 9.5 percent percent decline decline in in traditional traditional energy energy consumption) consumption) and and for for total total energy energy o a consumption (commercial s consumption (commercial and and traditional) traditional) of of 1.05. 1.05. e c i l e a l e u c w e C h l le a , b s e r

Chapter 2--Energy and Economic Development 31 Chapter Development .31

Figure 2-5-Commercial E Energy Consumption and Figure 2-5-Commercial nergy C onsumption a n d Economic E c o n o m i c Development Development in Selected in Selected Countries Countries
10 00 1 00 0 ~
Gigajou u ll e es s

pe r p

ca p i t c ta a

24 24

10 1 00 0 ~

M19 m 19 13 13 5 6 6 11 5 11 . lI ; I l ~ 5 .47% : 1 0 2 2 E3 3 1 7= ,1 8 17 18 - 2 0 20 16 16

.22 2 2 21 21

23 23

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1 : 1 -ml

1E thiopia 1 Ethiopia 2 Nigeria 2 Nigeria 3 3 Kenya 4 India 4 5 Zimbabwe 5 Zimbabwe 6 Egypt 6 Egypt 7 Cameroon 7 Cameroon 8 Indonesia 8 Indonesia 9 Morocco Morocco 9
10 hh ii ll i ip 1 0 PP pp piin ne es 11 C hina 11 China 12 T h a i l a n d 12 Thailand

13 Algeria 13 Algeria 14 Peru Peru 14 15 Costa 15 Costa Rica Rica 16 Brazil 16 Brazil 17 Korea Korea 17 18 Argentina 18 Argentina 19 19 Venezuela 20 Mexico 20 Mexico 21 Japan 21 Japan
22 2 2 23 2 3 24 24

m 1

F Frra an nc ce e W W.. G Ge er rm ma n y U n i t e d Unite S Stta atte s

0.11 o 0

10 1 2 12 1 8 4 6 10 8 2 6 2 4 Gross ddomestic o m e s t i c pproduct r o d u c t pper e r ccapita a p i t a ( (thousand t h o u s a n d ddollars) o l l a r s ) ( (ppp) ppp)

4 14

SOURCES: 1986 Energy Statistics Yearbook(New SOURCES: United Nations, 1986 Yearbook(New York, NY: NY: United United Nations, Nations, 1988), 1988), table table 4; 4: Robert Robert Summers et al., "A A New New Set Comparisons of Real Real Product and Price Levels, Estimates Set of International Comparisons Estimates for for 130 1950-1985, Review of Income and Wealth, Series 130 Countries, 1950-1985," Series 34, No. 1, March 1988. 1988.

mer cial fuel fuel equivalent: equivalent,14 the increase in energy mercial co in relation relation to to GNP GNP might might be be somewhat somewhat consumption 4 nsumpti t h e on in greater than the in c rease in t o tal energy ( an energy than the in total energy (an energy igreater n c r e a s increase e elasti c ity of j ust o ver 1.0 ) , but less than the in crease elasticity i n of just over 1.0), but less than the increase in co mmer c ial energy al o ne ( 1.5 o r m o re ) . in commercial energy e n e r g alone (1.5 or more). inclusion of of traditional traditional energy, energy, though though necesnecesy The The inclusion sary to provide provide a a more more complete complete picture picture of of the sary to the relati onship between between economic economic growth, growth, social social dederelationship vel opment, and and energy energy use, use, raises raises problems problems of of its its velopment, own. o wn. First, First, the the measurement measurement of traditional traditional fuels fuels is di fficult and and prone prone to to underestimation. underestimation. For For example, example, difficult fo r Indonesia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Malaysia, the the Philippines, Philippines, and and ThaiThaifor land, estimates by by the the United United Nations Nations Food Food and and land, estimates A gricultural Organization, Organization, the the Asian Asian Development Development Agricultural Bank, and the the World World Energy Energy Conference-three Conference-three Bank, and f requently quoted quoted sources sources of of data data on on traditional traditional frequently fuels-are f uels-are found found in in almost almost all cases cases to to be be considerconsiderably lower than than in in other other country-specific cou.ntry-specific studies.' studies.15 ably lower Se cond, when when considering considering traditional traditional sources sources of of Second, energy, it is di ff i c ult t o kn o w wheret o draw the line. energy, it is difficult to know whereto draw the line. A nimate forms forms of of energy energy are are important important iin most Animate n most devel o ping co untries, parti c ularly the p oo rest. I f the the developing countries, particularly the poorest. I f
{A Method

bi omass fed fed t o bullocks bullocks to to provide provide pl owing and biomass to plowing and irrigati on services services were were included, included, the the amount amount of irrigation of traditi o nal energy co nsumed w o uld in c rease sub traditional energy consumed would increase substantially. Further, i f the large am o unts of bi o mass stantially. Further, if the large amounts of biomass burned preparing soil soil fo rc ultivation in burned in in preparing for cultivation in slash slash and and burn agriculture were were included, included, per-capita per-capita energy energy burn agriculture use where shifting shifting agriculture agriculture is practiced could could use where is practiced co nceivably be be as as high conceivably high o or r higher higher than than in i n the the industrial countries.' industrial countries.l6 A lthough GNP GNP growth growth is is an an important important determidetermiAlthough nant of energy co nsumpti o n, it is n o t the o nly one. one. nant of energy consumption, i t is not the only Table 2 1 sh o ws co mmer c ial and t o tal energy Table 2-1 shows commercial and total energy co nsumption relative relative to to GNP GNP for for different different levels levels of consumption of in co me. I f the am o unt of energy co nsumed were income. I f the amount of energy consumed were tied tied t o the the level level of utput o r devel opment, the to of o output or development, the energy energy intensities of all all co countries would be the same. As intensities untries w ould be As these f igures sh o w, h o wever, there are co nsiderable these figures show, however, there are considerable variati ons iin energy intensity intensity (the (the ratio ratio of of energy energy variations n energy co nsumpti o n t o GNP ) at all levels of devel o pment. consumption to GNP) at all levels of development. A mong the the industrial industrial countries, countries, energy energy intensities intensities Among vary widely. And And among among the the developing developing countries, countries, vary widely. energy intensities of of countries countries with same level energy intensities with the the same level of of
Developing Energy

14B Press, 1986), p. 423, 423, table 8. . Pergamon Press, 1986), p. table 8. 15&, footnote 15, P . 423, w . A op. cit., footnote 158z, P. 423, table 8 n -g 1. 1, 16see Kirk R. Smith, "The Biofuel Transition," Pacific and Asian Journal of Energy, VO vol. 1, No. No. 1, 1, January 1987, 1987, p. p. 18, 18, figure 5. 5. , ' A M

n Developing 32 *Energy Energy i in Developing Countries Countries

Figure 2-6-Commercial Figure 2-6-Commercial Energy Energy Consumption and Social Development in Selected in Selected Countries Countries

o
300 300 250 250 1 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50
-

66

G ii g a j o u ll e es s

per p er

capita c apita

13 Algeria Algeria 13 1E t i Ti o p i a 1 Ethiopia 14 Peru Peru 2N igeria 14 2 Nigeria 15 Costa R ica 15 Costa Rica 3 K e n y a 3 Kenya 16 BraziI Brazil 4 I India ndia 16 4 17 Korea Korea 5 ZZimbabwe imbabwe 17 5 18 Argentina Argentina 6E gypt 18 6 Egypt 19 Venezuela Venezuela 7C ameroon 19 7 Cameroon 20 Mexico 8 In donesia 2 0 M exico 8 Indonesia 21 Japan 9M Japan 21 9 Mo orro oc cc co o 22 France 10 1 0 P Ph hi il li ip pp piin ne es s 22 France 11 C hina 23 W. 11 China 2 3 W . G Ge errm ma an y 24 United United S t States ates 12 Thailand 24 12 Thailand 19 1 9

24 . 24

23 3 2

m 22 22 m 21 21

13 13

20 2 0 rr ,, 7 7
6 ,, 1 16 11 ..1 4 1 1 14 12 12 10 m m - 10

18 18

0 0 o

1i

2 , 2

4. 4.

7 r3 r3 5 5 7

~m~ g

g .8 .8

1 15 5
I

0.2 0.2 2

0 . 4 0.4

0 . 6 0.6

0 . 8 0.8

1 .

1. 2

Human Human development index index

SOURCES: 1988), table SOURCES: United Nations, 1986 Energy Statistics Yearbook(New York, NY: United Nations, 1988), table 4; 4; United United Nations Development Programme, Human Human Development Development Report Report 1990 (New University Nations Development (New York, NY: NY: Oxford Oxford University Press, Press, 1990), p. 79.

Table 2-lEnergy Intensities in Selected Countries 2-I-Energy intensities

Gross domestic domestic product, product, 1985 Country Ethiopia. Ethiopia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Kenya Kenya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Zimbabwe . . . . . . . . . . . . . Egypt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cameroon . . . . . . . . . . . . . Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Philippines . . . . . . . . . . . . . China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Algeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Peru . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Peru Costa Rica . . . . . . . . . . . . Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Brazil Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Argentina Argentina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Japan Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . France . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Germany Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . United United States . . . . . . . . . .
a ppp refers refers to to purchasing purchasing p power Parity. a ppp ower P a r i t y.
a $PPP PPP' 304 304 565 603 603 775 954 1,080 1,080 1,180 1,180 1,269 1,269 1,284 1,284 1,352 1,352 1,489 1,489 1,896 1,896 2,133 2,333 2,712 3,164 3,381 3,640 3,723 3,987 9,739 10,032 10,032 10,959 10,959 12,787 12,787

Total energy Total energy consumption consumption per GDP GDP GJ/$1,000 Index, GJ/$1,000 Index, U.S.= U.S.. 100 100

Commercial Commercial energy energy consumption consumption per per GDP GDP GJ/$1,000 Index, U.S.=1OO GJ/$1,000 Index, U.S.=100

29.6 29.6 24.8 24.8 29.9 29.9 15.5 15.5 30.4 30.4 21.3 21.3 16.9 16.9 12.6 12.6 7.8 7.8 11.1 11.1 15.4 15.4 12.7 12.7 17.8 17.8 9.9 9.9 16.2 16.2 16.4 16.4 16.6 16.6 17.0 17.0 29.8 29.8 13.3 13.3 12.7 12.7 16.1 16.1 17.0 17.0 24.1 24.1

123 123 103 103 124 124 64 64 126 126 88 88 70 70 52 52 32 32 46 46 64 64 53 53 74 74 4 1 41 67 67 68 68 69 69 71 71 124 124 55 55 53 53 67 67 70 70 100 100

2.3 2.3 9.0 9.0 5.0 5.0 11.4 11.4 22.3 22.3 20.6 20.6 9.1 9.1 6.6 6.6 7.3 7.3 6.7 6.7 14.3 14.3 7.0 7.0 17.4 17.4 8.1 8.1 8.3 8.3 10.7 10.7 16.1 16.1 15.9 15.9 29.9 29.9 12.5 12.5 12.7 12.7 16.0 16.0 16.9 16.9 23.7 23.7

10 10 38 38 2 1 21 48 48 94 94 87 87 38 38 28 28 31 31 28 28 60 60 29 29 73 73 34 34 35 35 45 45 68 68 67 67 126 126 53 53 54 54 67 67 71 71 100 100

SOURCES: United Nations, Nations, 1986 1986 Energy SOURCES: United Energy Statistics Yearbook Yearbook (New (New York, York, NY: NY: United United Nations, Nations, 1988), 1988), table table 4for energy consumption consumption data. data. Robert Robert Summers Summers et New Set Comparisons of Review of Income et al., al., A "A New Set of of International International Comparisons of Real Real Product Product and and Price Price Levels, Levels, Estimates Estimates for for 130 130 Countries, Countries, 1950-1985, 1950-1985,"Review and Series 34, No. 1, March 1988 for gross domestic product, purchasing power parity. and Wealth, Series 34, No. 1, March 1988 for gross domestic product, purchasing power parity.

Chapter 2--Energy and Economic Development Development 33 Chapter 33

development devel opment (measuredly (measuredly GNP GNP per per capita) capita) can can vary vary 17 more than fourfold.' more than fourfold. Variations V ariations in energy energy intensity intensity are are also also evident evident in individual countries countries or or groups groups of of countries countries over over time, as as shown shown in figure figure 2-7. 2-7. In the years immediimmediately before before 1973, 1973, global global energy energy intensities rose. rose. After Af ter 1973, 1973, there there was was a sharp drop drop in the industrial countries, co untries, in in contrast contrast to to a continued continued rise in the developing nations, i f at a lower developing nations, i lower pace. pace. Experience Experience within the the developing developing countries countries varied varied considerably, considerably, again testifying testifying to to the the importance importance of of factors factors other other than economic economic growth growth in in determining determining energy energy conconsumpti on. sumption. Differences Di fferences in in rates rates of of urbanization urbanization and and industrial industrial stru c ture a cco unt fo r part of the variati o n in energy energy structure account for part of the variation in intensities. Countries with with a a large large share share of of energy intensities. Countries energyintensive industries, such such as as steel, steel, paper, paper, chemicals, chemicals, intensive industries, and aluminum, w will tend tto o have have h higher energy and aluminum, i l l tend i g h e r energy intensities than countries countries with with few few energy-intensive energy-intensive intensities than industries. Nigeria, Egypt, Egypt, Algeria, Algeria, and and Venezuela Venezuela industries. Nigeria, ( with large o il drilling and re f inery o perati ons) and and (with large oil drilling and refinery operations) A rgentina, Korea, Korea, Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe, and and China China (with (with large large Argentina, metals industries, mainly mainly iron iron and and steel) steel) all have metals industries, all have relatively high energy intensities. relatively high energy intensities.

Figure 2-7Energy Intensity Intensity and and Economic Economic Figure Development, 1960-2000 Development, 1960-2000
oil equivalent f goods goods and services Barrels of oil equivalent per $1,000 o of services 8 I I
7.578.585.5 5 ~ I 4.5 1960 1960
1 1 1 1 I

>6

1973 1973

1982 1982

1990 1990

2000 2000

Industrial nations Industrial nations

+

+ Wo r l d average + World average

less efficient than odern technologies. technologies. ConseConseless efficient than m modern quently, the co al-burning co untries ( India and ) quently, the coal-burning countries (India and China China) are ore energy-intensive energy-intensive than untries largely are m more than co countries largely reliant on oil oil and and gas. gas. reliant on

-Developing nations D e SOURCE: SOURCE: World Bank, Industry Industry and and Energy Energy Department, Department, Energy "Energy Issues Issues v in the Developing Developing World," World, Energy Energy Series Series Paper Paper No. No. 1, 1, February February in the e 19s8. 19s8. l o p i n g n a t i o n s

The impact of of changes changes in also The impact in industrial industrial mix mix is is also evident o ver time. A b o ut hal f of the p o st 1979 evident over time. About half of the post-1979 de cline in in energy energy intensity intensity in China (which (which f ell by by 40 40 decline in China fell per cent between between the the late late 1970s 1970s and and the the late late 1980s) 1980s) percent c an be be ascribed ascribed to to the the limits limits on on the the expansion expansion of of can heavy industries and and to to the the promotion promotion of of light, and heavy industries light, and of ten export-oriented, export-oriented, manufactures manufactures (e.g., (e.g., textiles, textiles, often co nsumer ele c tr o ni c s, pr oc essed foo dstu ff s, a and consumer electronics, processed foodstuffs, nd plasti cs) .18 .18 The The equally equally dramatic dramatic decline decline in in Korea's Koreas plastics) energy intensity is is also also clue due in large part o the energy intensity in large part t to the c hanging industrial mix. A lth o ugh the o utput of changing industrial mix. Although the output of heavy industries in in Korea Korea rose rose sharply sharply in in these these years, years, heavy industries pr oduction of of less less energy-intensive energy-intensive industries industries such such production as ma c hinery and transp o rt equipment grew even as machinery and transport equipment grew even m ore rapidly, rapidly, resulting resulting in in a a declining declining share share of of heavy heavy more industry in the t o tal. industry in the total. Energy intensities are are also also influenced influenced by by the the Energy intensities te c hn o l o gies used thr o ugh o ut the e co n o my. F or technologies used throughout the economy. F o r example, the o lder generati o n of co al burning te c hexample, the older generation of coal-burning techn ologies still still used used in in developing developing countries countries are are much much nologies

S ome of of the the factors factors that that determine determine energy energy conconSome sumpti on (e.g., (e.g., the the size size of untry and sumption of the the co country and the the llocation ocation of resources in on t o industry of natural natural resources in relati relation to industry and major markets) markets) are are country-specific, country-specific, but but others others and major c an be be affected affected by by policy policy decisions. decisions. can

Projected Energy Consumption Consumption in Developing Countries Countries

In the past, past, the the three three factors factors discussed discussed in In the i n the the pre ceding sectionrapidly sectionrapidly rising rising population, population, high high preceding e conomic growth growth rates rates to to provide provide improved improved standstandeconomic ards of living, and stru c tural c hange as devel o pment ards of living, and structural change as development gets underway have been ass oc iated with rapid gets underway-have been associated with rapid rates of in c rease in co mmer c ial energy co nsumpti on rates of increase in commercial energy consumption in developing countries. countries. I ntinue, in developing If f these these trends trends co continue, in creases iin commercial energy energy consumption consumption in increases n commercial in devel o ping co untries co uld be very large. Table 2 -2 developing countries could be very large. Table 2-2 illustrates s o me of the c urrent pr o j e c ti o ns. The illustrates some of the current projections. The synthesis ojections sh own in synthesis of of a a wide wide range range of of pr projections shown in this table suggests that co mmer c ial energy conthis table suggests that commercial energy consumpti on in oping w orld ( including here sumption in the the devel developing world (including here OPEC ) in 2010 co uld be 2.5 times higher OPEC) in 2010 could be 2.5 times higher than than it it was was in the base base year, year, 1985, 1985, an an annual crease of in the annual rate rate of of in increase of

2.1, does not appear to be a systematic tendency for energy/GNP ratios to rise as of development 17 rise; the energy/GNP ratios ratios of of the the advanced advanced developing developing countries cit., footnote Fthe r energy/GNP rise; countries are are very very similar similar to to those those of of Europe Europe and and Japan. Japan. However, However, Ang, Aug, op. op cit., footnote 9, 9, using using a sample, shows shows a a commercial commercial energy/GNP energy/GNP ratio ratio with respect to capita at 0.80. That increase in o sample, a wider wider with respect to GNP GNP per per capita at 0.80. That is, is, a a 10 10 percent percent increase in GNP GNP is is associated associated with with percent increase energy/GNP ratio. m t an 8 8 percent increase in in the the energy/GNP ratio. h e Energy: A Case Study, contractor report prepared for the Office of Technology April 1990. 18

lVi m a ci t le d a s v

34 Energy in 34 in Developing Countries Countries

3.8 percent. percent. China China accounts accounts for for more more than one-third one-third of the projected increase. the projected increase.

The World World Energy Energy Conference Conference forecasts forecasts a somesomegrowth what slower slower rate of gr owth in commercial commercial energy consumption co nsumption in the developing developing world, world, an annual average increase increase of 3.3 percent. percent. By 2020, 2020, however, however, consumption co nsumption of of commercial commercial energy energy in the the developdeveloping world world would would be be three times higher than in 1985, and consumption consumption of traditional traditional fuels fuels about about 25 percent per cent higher higher (see (see figure figure 2-8). 2-8). Population Population growth growth and rising standards of living each each account account for for about about half hal f of of the the total total increase.' increase.19

Figure 2-8-Historical and Projected Energy Figure Consumption in Developing Countries: World Consumption Energy Conference Moderate "Moderate" Projections Projections Energy
Exajoules Exajoules 30 3 00 0 ~ 250
~

200

150 -

100 100
50 50

\ 11
1 9 8 1980 0 1 9 91990 0

t\\A \
13;omass 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020

The Energy Sector and the Macroeconomy

Energy is is widely widely recognized recognized as as a a key key economic economic se ctor in in developing developing countries. countries. Reliable Reliable and and affordaffordsector able supplies of of energy energy make make major major contributions contributions to to able supplies e conomic and and social social development; development; conversely, conversely, inineconomic adequate or unreliable unreliable energy energy supplies supplies frustrate frustrate the the adequate or devel opment process. process. development

0+ + o 1970 1970

SOURCE: SOURCE: World Energy Conference, Conservation Conservation and and Studies Studies CommitCommittee, tee, Global Global Energy Perspective Perspective 2000-2020, 2000-2020, 14th congress, congress, Montreal Montreal 1989 1989 (Paris: (Paris: 1989). 1989).

Financing Energy Supplies

M ost developing developing countries countries (59 (59 out out of of 80) 80) are are net net Most energy importers, relying relying on on imports imports for for virtually virtually all all energy importers, d omestic commercial commercial energy energy consumption; consumption; for for many many domestic co untries, oil oil imports imports represent represent 30 30 percent percent or or more more countries, 20 of otal exp ort earnings. of t total export earnings.'" The The share share of of energy energy imp orts in in the the total total export export earnings earnings of of developing developing imports co untries has has fluctuated fluctuated widely widely in in recent recent years years as as oil oil countries pri ces have have changed. changed. Such Such wide wide fluctuations fluctuations are are prices highly disruptive to to energy energy planning planning and and economic economic highly disruptive devel opment. development. Many developing countries countries emphasize emphasize domestic domestic Many developing pr oduction of of energy. energy. Investments Investments in in highly highly capitalcapitalproduction intensive energy supply supply systems systems often often represent represent a a intensive energy ma jor share share of of the the total total investment investment budget (see table table major budget (see 2 -3), accounting accounting iin some countries countries for for over over 40 40 2-3), n some

per cent of of all all public public investment:' investment.21 A s the the predomipredomipercent As nant claimant on on scarce scarce capital capital resources, resources, developdevelopnant claimant ments in the energy se c t o r there fo re have jor ments in the energy sector therefore have a a ma major impa c t o n the am o unts of investment available fo r impact on the amounts of investment available for o ther economic economic and and social social development. development. other
The scale future for The scale of f uture investment investment demands demands fo r the energy sector in developing countries countries is is projected projected t o energy sector in developing to be The W orld Bank, r example, be very very large. large. The World Bank, fo for example, estimates that investments investments of of $125 $125 billion billion annually annually estimates that (twice current level) would in ( twice the c urrent level )w ould be needed in devel oping 22 countries to to provide provide adeguate adequate supplies supplies of developing ,countries of f According t oa orld Bank ele ctricity. According electricity. to aW World Bank estimate estimate annual average expenditures expenditures on on commercial commercial energy energy annual average supply f a c ilities fo r devel o ping co untries, ele c tricity supply facilities for developing countries, electricity a cco unts pr o bably fo r o ne hal f of the t o tal ;o il, accounts probably for one-half of the total; oil, in c luding re f ineries, a cco unts fo r ab o ut 40 per c ent ; including refineries, accounts for about 40 percent; and al 5 percent ea ch. These and natural natural gas gas and and co coal 5 percent each. These expenditures do n ot in clude investment expenditures do not include investment in in small smalls cale renewable renewable or or energy energy conservation. conservation. scale

I9The Intergovernmental Panel on on Climate Climate Change has has undertaken undertaken projections projections of of energy energy consumption consumption in in developing developingemmtries in "Appendix Report of Emissions Scenarios (Response Strategies of the the Expert Expert Group Group on on Emissions Scenarios (Response Strategies Working Working Group Group Steering Steering Committee, Committee, Task Task A), A)," April April 1990. 1990. Several Several scenarios scenarios are are provided, emission coefficients, and provided, with with different different rates rates of of economic economic grow@ grow@ emission and policies. policies. The The high high economic economic growth growth (growth (growth rates rates similar similar to to the the other other studies here), low studies quoted quoted here), low emissions emissions scenario scenario forecasts forecasts a a threefold threefold increase increase in in developing developing world world energy energconsumption between between 1985 1985 and and 2025, 2025, which which is is to the the World Energy Conference Conference forecast. forecast. The reasonably similar similar to World Energy The high high growth, high high emissions emissions scenario scenario is is similar similar to to the the combined combined forecast forecast results results in in Alan Alan S. International Energy Energy Workshop: Workshop: Overview Overview of Responses (Palo (Palo Alto, Alto, CA: S. Marine Marine and and Leo Schrattenholzer, International o f Poll Poll Responses CA: Stanford Stanford University, University, Internrional Energy Project, July July 1989). 1989). Energy Project,

imports and debt service together account for over one-third of total export earnings in middle-income countries, and almost 40 percent in 2 lower-income countries lower-income countries (excluding (excluding China and and India). a &@ cover energy sector by public entities. They may include some small amounts of investment energy E1 2 but virtually is in T but n virtually all all is in energy energy supplies. supplies. They They do do not not include include private private investment investment in in backup backup equipment. equipment. e be for Power in the Developing Countries the 1990 s, World Bank Industry 2 2 r e s Working Paper, W Working Paper, Energy Energy Series Series Paper Paper No. No. 21, 21, Washington Washington DC, DC,February 1990. 1990.
g & or y @ l d i c B m o a p v n o

Chapter 2--Energy and and Economic Development Chapter Development .35 35

2 Table 2-2--Commerciai Energy Consumption, 1985 and Projections for 2010 (EJ=Exajoules) Increase in Increase in 2-Share of of Share of of Share of of AARG,' Share Share AARG, consumption, consumption, Share 2010 total 1985-2010 1985-2010 increase Com total 1985 2010 total 1985-2010 1985-2010 increase total 1985 percent (EJ) (EJ) percent (EJ) percent (EJ) percent percent (EJ) (EJ) percent percent percent merc 106.30 50.2 23.3 175.!56 34.5 3.8 69.26 106.30 50.2 23.3 175.!56 34.5 3.8 iai Developing countries ....... 69.26 11.7 4.1 37.63 17.8 7.4 59.54 21.91 11.7 4.1 37.63 17.8 7.4 59.54 21.91 China . . . .E ............. 17.26 8.1 2.5 11.65 3.9 28.91 5.7 OPEC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.26 8.1 2.5 11.65 3.9 28.91 5.7 e Non-OPECn developing developing 24.3 51.41 17.1 12.0 87.11 3.6 24.3 51.41 17.1 12.0 87.11 3.6 r ..g countries .......... 35.70 27.9 42.2 1.3 59.20 215.03 155.83 52.4 27.9 42.2 1.3 59.20 215.03 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155.83 52.4 OECD . . . . . y 11.6 24.60 24.8 98.47 19.3 1.2 United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.6 24.60 73.87 24.8 98.47 19.3 1.2 United C o U.S.S.R. and and n s 46.34 21.9 24.3 118.66 23.3 2.0 46.34 21.9 24.3 118.66 23.3 2.0 72.32 Eastern Europe . . . . . . . . . u 100.0 211.85 100.0 2.3 100.0 509.25 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297.41 100.0 211.85 100.0 2.3 100.0 509.25 Total m aAARG -.annual average rate of growth. p t Stanford University, University, SOURCE: Alan Alan S. S. Marine Marine and Leo Leo Schrattenholzor, interne/one/ Energy Workshop: Workshop: Overview Overview of Poll Responses Responses (Palo (Palo Alto, CA: Stanford i o Energy Project, July 1989). International n , 1 Table 2-3-Estimated Annual Annual Energy investment as a Percentage of 9 Annual Total Total Public Public investment During the Early 1980s 1980s 8 5 10-20 percent percent Over 40 percent 30-40 percent 2 0 - 320-30 10-20 percent 0 - 1 0-10 0 p ercent 0 percent a Benin Botswana Ecuador Benin Ethiopia Argentina Botswana Ecuador Ethiopia n Brazil India China Egypt Brazil India China Egypt Ghana Costa Rica Pakistan Ghana Costa Colombia Pakistan d Liberia Jamaica Liberia Jamaica Philippines Korea Philippines P Morocco Turkey Nepal Morocco Mexico Nepal r Nigeria Nigeria Sudan Sudan o SOURCE: Mohan j Munasinghe,Dectrio Power Power Economics (London: Butterworths, 1990), p. 5. e c A bout one-half one-half of of total total estimated estimated energy energy supply supply experien ce difficulties, difficulties, the the issues issues will will vary vary from from About experience t investments are pr o j e c ted t o be in fo reign exco untry to to country. country. The The poorest poorest countries countries are are highly investments are projected t o be i n foreign excountry highly 23 i change. The foreign exchange exchange component component for for oil oil change T h e foreign dependent on confessional confessional aid which a ccounted fo r dependent on aid ( (which accounted for o 80 percent of their t otal external borrowing fo r the and gas is is typically typically high high (about (about two-thirds two-thirds of of the and gas the 80 percent of their total external borrowing for the n energy sector in 1975-80). Their Their success success in cquirt otal), as as much much of of the the equipment equipment must must be be imported. imported. total), energy sector in 1975-80). in a acquirs ing f unds will depend o n the extent of the in c rease On the other other hand, hand, foreign foreign exchange exchange costs costs for for coal coal ing funds will depend on the extent of the increase On the f in co n f essi o nal f l o ws. On the o ther hand, the in confessional flows. other hand, devel o pment are l o w ( ab o ut o ne quarter of the t o tal ) , development are low (about one-quarter of the total), o mainly be c ause the ma j o r co al using co untries, India middle in co me co untries depend mainly ( 80 per mainly because the major coal-using countries, India middle-income countries depend mainly (80 perr and China, manu f a c ture co al industry equipment c ent ) o n exp o rt related and private f inan c ial f l o ws and China, manufacture coal industry equipment cent) on export-related and private financial flows 2 fo r their external financing financing of d omestically. The projected projected share share of of foreign foreign exexfor their external of energy energy investments. investments. domestically. The 0 The situati o n is parti c ularly a c ute indebted c hange in ele c tri c p o wer varies widely a cco rding t o The situation is particularly acute in in highly highly indebted change in electric power varies widely according to 1 co untry. In co untries with devel o ped industrial devel o ping co untries. country. I n countries w i t h developed industrial developing countries. 0 se ctors, the the share share may may be be between between 5 5 and and 10 10 percent, percent, sectors, The ther hal ojected in crease in ( The o other h a lf f of of the the pr projected increase in but in countries countries that import import all all their their generating generating but in that investment in the the energy energy sector sector comes comes from from domesdomes24 E investment in equipment, the share share rises rises as as high high as as 70 70 Percent.' Percent. equipment, the ti c resources, resources, with cularly high J tic with a a parti particularly high share share in in Ac hieving these high high levels levels of of foreign foreign resources resources ele ctricity and and coal. coal. In many co untries, however, however, the = these Achieving electricity In many countries, the fo r the the energy energy sector investment investment poses poses immense immense ffinancial inancial situation situation of power sector sector has has deteriodeterioE for sector of the the power c hallenges. Though most most countries countries are are likely likely to to rated, as increases increases in sts have ot been ched by x Though challenges. rated, as in co costs have n not been mat matched by a j was to come (al m o s t pri v a t e 23 loans). ul t ila t e r al agencies agencies and and bilateral accounted for c om m e r cial loans). o commercial loans from m multilateral bilateral aid aid accounted for about about one-quarter. E Transition in Developing Countries x 2t 4 u The e W l m or e a 1 ld f B s
a

n Developing 36 Energy Energy i in Developing Countries Countries

increased oil in creased revenues!' revenues.25 The financial financial viability of o il refinery re finery operations operations in many many countries countries is also also comcompromised by pr omised by the the structure structure of of petroleum petroleum product product prices;" domestic pri ces. 26 The issue of d omestic resource mobilization ti on is of particular particular importance importance for for coal, coal, where much much of the rather of the financial financial resources resources needed needed are are local local rather than foreign. foreign.

There are are indications indications that that the the developing developing councountries are are paying paying increased increased attention attention to to resource resource mobilization m obilization for for the the energy energy sector. sector. Several Several countries countries (e.g., ( e.g., Peru, Peru, Ecuador, Ecuador, and and Colombia) Colombia) are are currently currently opening o pening more more of their territories territories to to oil oil exploration exploration by fo reign firms. firms. Requirements Requirements for for government government participarticiforeign pati on in in oil oil development development ventures ventures are are being being rerepation laxed. Improved Improved fiscal fiscal arrangements arrangements providing providing for for the special characteristics characteristics of of gas gas have have been been adopted adopted the special in Egypt, Tunisia, Tunisia, Pakistan, Pakistan, and and elsewhere elsewhere with with a a in Egypt, dramati c increase increase iin exploration specifically specifically dididramatic n exploration re cted at at gas." gas.27 rected

million, of the ele electricity milli on, and the poor poor quality of ctricity resulted i n additional resulted in additional consumption consumption of 412 gigawatthours a cost cost of of $18 milli million!' More gigawatth ours at at a on.29 M ore generally, lost output caused generally, lost industrial o utput c aused by shortages electricity and Pakistanis sh ortages of of ele ctricity in India India and estimated to reduced estimated to have have redu ced GDP GDP by about about 1.5 to 2 percent.' Residential consumers also 2 percent.30 Residential consumers are als o affected. a ffected. Many consumers, consumers, both both residential residential and and indusindus Many M to i n a variety of of t ria ail,, are are obliged obliged t o invest in equipment-voltage equipment -voltage boosters, boosters, standby standby generagenerat tors, ors, storage storage batteries, batteries, kerosene kerosene lamps-in lamps-in o rder t o minimize minimize the impa ct of order to impact of disrupted supplies. Though no no data data are are available, available, expenexpensupplies. Though ditures on these these devices devices are are certainly certainly substansubstanditures on tial, adding t o the cost cost of oviding usable tial, adding to of pr providing supplies. supplies.

Energy Supply Reliability

Just as the the presence presence of of reliable supplies of Just as reliable supplies of high -quality energy energy can can be be a a strong strong incentive incentive to to high-quality e conomic development, development, so so unreliable unreliable supplies supplies can can economic dis courage development development and and add add substantially substantially to to the the discourage co st of usable p o wer. Ele c tri c ity supplies in many cost of usable power. Electricity supplies in many devel oping countries countries are are characterized characterized by by frequent frequent developing servi c e c urtailments t o c ust o mers, in c luding blackservice curtailments to customers, including blacko uts, br o wn o uts, and sharp p o wer surges. This can outs, brownouts, and sharp power surges. This can have two types types of of impacts: impacts: have two

Su ch supply nstraints are ociated Such supply co constraints are usually usually ass associated with electricity, but but there also shortages shortages of ther with electricity, there are are also of o other s ources of of energy. Supplies of ousehold f uels in sources energy. Supplies of h household fuels in many countries (e.g., (e.g., India) India) are are notoriously notoriously intermitmany countries tent. This accounts accounts fo r the existence of tent. This for the existence of a a wide wide range range of cooking systems systems in many households households in rder t o of cooking in many in o order to ensure shortage of ne ffuel. uel. Trans ensure against against the the shortage of any any o one Transp ortation services services are are also also subject subject to to disruption disruption portation be cause of of unreliable uel supplies. supplies. because unreliable f fuel

Energy Pricing and Demand Management

Energy prices play play a key role role in energy sector sector Energy prices a key in energy devel opment, through through their impacts on on the ount development, their impacts the am amount of used in conomy, the chnologies of energy energy used in an an e economy, the te technologies ad opted, and and in some cases, cases, the the dire ction of adopted, in some direction of indus industrial development. The The effects effects o n the the energy energy in fratrial development. on infrastru cture are long term and of ten di fficult structure are long term in in nature, nature, and often difficult to t o reverse. reverse. Energy pricing policy policy may may have have several several objecobjecEnergy pricing tives : efficient efficient allocation allocation of of resources, resources, provision provision of of tives: a ffordable supplies supplies to to consumers, consumers, reasonable reasonable returns affordable returns t o energy energy producers, producers, substitution substitution between between fuels fuels for for to

Industries and and offices offices are are unable unable to to o perate, Industries operate, pr oduction is is lowered, lowered, and and raw raw materials materials are are production wasted. In China, China, for for example, example, it is claimed claimed that wasted. In it is that ele ctricity shortages shortages and and disruptions disruptions during during the the electricity 1980 s were were responsible responsible for for idling idling at at least least 20 20 1980's per cent of of the the country's countrys industrial industrial capacity!' capacity.28 percent F or the the five five public-sector public-sector steel steel plants plants in India, For in India, it has been been estimated estimated that that at at 1986-87 1986-87 operating operating it has levels, irregular and and restricted restricted electricity electricity supsuplevels, irregular ply resulted in in increased increased electricity electricity consumpconsumpply resulted ti on of of over over 216 216 gigawatthours gigawatthours at at a cost of $10 tion a cost of $10

Review of World Bank Lending for Electric power, World Bank Industry and Energy Department Working Paper Energy Series, 25 Paper No. 2, Paper 2, March March 1988. 1988. W No. o Donald r Hertzmark, Energy "Energy Efficiency Efficiency and and Energy Energy pricing pricing in Developing Developing Countries," contractor report report prepared prepared for for the the Office Office of of Technology Technology 1d Assessment, May Assessment, May 1990. B J. in the Developing World, contractor report prepared for the of 27 a T \racial/ Snail, "China's Energy: A Case Study, 28 A Case Study, " op. op. cit., cit., footnote footnote 18.
n he Conserving Process Heat in Primary Industries of India and k9 2 o d of , of Technology Technology Assessment, April April 1990. 1990. Er o " n P. Impacts of Power Supply Inadequacy in Developing Countries, Journal of Energy Policy (forthcoming). e 3e Rg r J e y . A v a G r i n o t e

for the

Chapter 2--Energy and Economic Development Development 3 7 Chapter 37

national nati onal security security or or environmental environmental reasons, reasons, promopromotion ti on of of regional regional development development and and industrial industrial competcompetT h e weights itiveness. 31 The weights of these different different objectives objectives in the formulation formulation of energy policy policy vary among among countries. co untries. The The importance importance of the regional regional developdevelopment objective, objective, for for example, example, varies varies from from country country to to country co untry depending depending on on geographical geographical configuration, configuration, politics, p olitics, and and history. history. As As in other other aspects aspects of economic economic and social social policy, policy, however, however, there there are several several characcharacteristics teristi cs of energy pricing pricing that are shared by many of the developing developing countries: countries:

Governments play play a a strong strong role role in in the the commercommer Governments c ial energy energy sector. sector. IIn virtually all all developing developing cial n virtually co untries the the electricity electricity sector sector is is government government countries o wned, and and in in many many countries countries the the government government owned, als o owns owns the the coal, coal, and and oil oil and and gas gas sectors. sectors. also Regardless of the rm of wnership, the Regardless of the fo form of o ownership, the g overnment typically typically regulates regulates prices prices of of energy energy government pr oducts, frequently frequently at at several several levels levels of of the the products, pr oduction and and distribution distribution chain. chain. production Social objectives objectives are are an an important important factor factor in in Social fo rmulating energy energy pricing pricing policies. policies. As As a a basic basic formulating ne cessity of of life, life, energy energy accounts accounts for for a a substansubstannecessity tial part of of total total household household expenditures. expenditures. GovGovtial part ernments frequently aim aim to to keep keep the the typical typical ernments frequently co st o of household fuels-e. fuels-e. g., g., kerosene kerosene for for cost f household lighting and cooking, cooking, and and in in some some cases cases eleceleclighting and tri city-low. The The large large number number of of poor poor in the tricity-low. in the p opulation also also makes makes price price stability stability an an imporimporpopulation tant policy objective. objective. Though Though social social equity equity tant policy issues are a a major major preoccupation preoccupation in in the the pricing pricing issues are of commercial fuels, fuels, prices prices of of the most comcomof commercial the most m on form form of of energy energy used used by by the the poorwood poorwood mon and charcoal-are usually usually not not regulated. regulated. and charcoal-are Economic objectives, objectives, notably, notably, the the desire desire to to Economic en courage key key strategic strategic development development sectors sectors encourage in cluding transportation transportation and and agriculture, agriculture, are are including als o reflected reflected iin policies designed designed to to promote promote also n policies rural electrification or or to to keep keep diesel diesel prices prices low. low. rural electrification

energy sales may be the costs of energy be inadequate inadequate to to cover cover the costs of supplying the energy. This problem supplying problem is especially especially acute a cute in the electricity electricity generating generating sector sector in developdeveloping countries. showed out of ing countries. One One study' study32 sh owed that in 30 o ut of 37 developing which 37 developing countries countries for for whi ch data were availavailable, electricity tariffs low to generate the the able, electricity tari ffs were too too l ow t o generate revenues needed to cover total operating costs plus to cover total operating costs allowances all owances for for equipment equipment replacement replacement or or expansion expansion of the system. A survey of of ele electric power projects of ctric p ower pr ojects World over 20-year period ffinanced inanced by the W orld Bank o ver a 20 -year peri od33 indi cates a co nsistent de cline in inancial indicates consistent decline in key key f financial indi cators as as revenues revenues from from sales sales of ele ctricity indicators electricity lagged behind rising rising costs. costs. lagged behind

Petr oleum prices prices are are rather rather different. different. A At present, Petroleum t present, subsidies (defined here here as as prices prices significantly significantly lower lower subsidies (defined than those charged charged in onal markets ) are than those in internati international markets) are largely limited to to oil-exporting oil-exporting (or (or at least o illargely limited at least oilpr oducing) countries. countries. Countries Countries that ort all producing) that imp import all their their supplies of petroleum petroleum products, products, and and are are therefore therefore supplies of o bliged to to pay pay c urrent internati onal pri ces fo r their obliged current international prices for their supplies, are generally generally unwilling unwilling to to subsidize subsidize prices prices supplies, are o n the the domestic domestic market. oil-exporting councounon market. In I n the the oil-exporting tries, however, despite despite sharp ce in creases in tries, however, sharp pri price increases in re cent years, years, several several petroleum petroleum productsnotably, productsnotably, recent ker osene and and heavy heavy fuel fuel oil-continue oil-continue to to be be sold sold at kerosene at hal f the onal pri ce o r less. Low d omestic gas half the internati international price or less. Low domestic gas pri ces, in in combination combination with other factors, factors, discourage discourage prices, with other the development of resources and ntribute t o the development of gas gas resources and co contribute to the spectacularly high share of lared gas opthe spectacularly high share of fflared gas in in devel developing countries--47 percent percent of of t otal production, production, comcoming countries--47 total pared 4 percent percent in OECD countries.' countries.% pared with with 4 in the the OECD In both India ch t ogether a ccount In both India and and China, China, whi which together account fo r 70 cent of al co nsumption in for 70 per percent of all all co coal consumption i n the the devel oping world, world, coal coal prices prices are ow proprodeveloping are kept kept bel below du ction co sts. In o-thirds of all al duction costs. I n China, tw two-thirds all co coal 35 enterprises lost money money in In the early 1980s enterprises lost in 1984. 1984. the World India's the World Bank estimated Coal Coal India s losses losses at 3 36 $300 million on 8700 million.' $300 milli o n o n sales of $700 milli o n. In t h e e a r l y
1 9 8 0 s
and Policy

P olicies that that keep keep key key energy energy product product prices prices low low Policies c an als o pr o du c e adverse results. Revenues f r om can also produce adverse results. Revenues from
and

31 1990); F Lawrence 1990); Lawrence J. J. Hill, Hill, Energy Energy Price Ref or m in in Developing Developing Countries: Issues Issues and and Options Options (Oak (Oak Ridge, Ridge, TN: TN: Oak Oak Ridge Ridge National National Laboratory, Laboratory, August August (London: Graham and 1987), o r and 1987), and Corazon Siddayao, Siddayao, Criteria Criteria for for Energy Energy Pricing Pricing Policy Policy (London. and Trotman, 1985). 1985). f J. op. cit., footnote 31, pp. 2-10 and 2-20, 32 u La Review of World Bank Lending for Power, Industry and Energy Department Working Paper, Energy Series paper No. 2, 3 3 r w r 1988. March 1988. W t en Money o r4 The High Cost of Energy Subsidies (Washington, Dc: world world Resources Resources Institute, 1987), p.14.Based Based onInternational 3 h ce l d Energy Agency data. M Energy e Agency data. . B J. op. cit., a5 r r 3 1 a k d L a . Kosmo, op. cit., footnote p. 3 6 n iK wr H M k o s s e n i ar , m c l ke " o , u J l K

n Developing 38 *Energy Energy i in Developing Countries Countries

In some some cases, cases, the costs costs of energy supplies are also als o higher than necessary. necessary. Factors Factors such such as excessive excessive staffing n the electricity sta ffing and and poor poor management management iin electricity sector se ctor increase increase costs, costs, and and there there are are similar similar ineffiinefficiencies n the oil c iencies iin oil supply sector. sector. Insofar Insofar as the population p opulation is aware aware of these problems, problems, they maybe maybe reluctant relu ctant to to agree agree to to price price increases increases that would would in effect e ffect subsidize subsidize the inefficiencies inefficiencies of the supply system. Improved Improved efficiencies efficiencies on on the supply supply side side n prices might make make increases increases iin prices and and tariffs tariffs more more palatable and and also also help help to to minimize minimize the total total cost cost to to consumers. co nsumers. In addition addition to to the the general general level level of of energy energy prices, prices, the structure structure of of energy energy prices prices is is of of concern concern in in both both the electricity electricity and and petroleum petroleum pr oduct markets. markets. Major Major product di fferences in in the the prices prices charged charged for for similar services-services-differences as the case case of of ele ctricity--or fo r petr oleum as in in the electricity--or for petroleum pr oducts that that can can be be substituted substituted for for each each o ther products other have given rise rise to to distortions distortions in in product product demand. demand. have given The subsidization subsidization of of some some fuels fuels (kerosene (kerosene and and diesel diesel f uels) for for general general economic economic and and social social reasons, reasons, fuels) co mbined with with high high taxes taxes on on others others (gasoline), (gasoline), leads leads combined t o shortages shortages of of the the subsidized subsidized fuels, fuels, surpluses surpluses of of the the to highly taxed fuels, fuels, and and capital capital investment investment decisions decisions highly taxed made on the the basis basis of of energy energy costs costs that that do do not not reflect reflect made on the cost of of providing providing that that energy. energy. the cost In Thailand in in the the early early 1980s. 1980s, for for example, example, price price In Thailand di ff eren c es between gas o line, diesel, ker o sene, and differences between gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and liquid petroleum gas gas (LPG) (LPG) led led to to shortages shortages and and liquid petroleum black bla ck markets in kerosene kerosene and LPG; LPG; the diversion diversion of hal f of of the the total total kerosene kerosene supply supply to to the the transport transport half se c t o r t o adulterate diesel f uel ; dieselizati o n of many many sector to adulterate diesel fuel; dieselization of o lder vehi c les by retr of itting a spark igniti o n engine older vehicles by retrofitting a spark ignition engine t o use use diesel diesel fuel; fuel; widespread widespread theft theft of of diesel diesel fuel; fuel; and and to surpluses of gas o line as all vehi c les used co mmer surpluses of gasoline as all vehicles used commer37 c ially c hanged o ver t o diesel. Similar devel o p cially changed over to diesel.' Similar developments in other other countries countries have have contributed contributed to to serious serious re finery imbalances. imbalances. In In recent recent years, years, Thailand Thailand has has refinery m o ved t o re fo rm its petr o leum pr o du c t pri c ing moved to reform its petroleum product pricing system, but wide pri c e di ff erentials persist in o ther system, but wide price differentials persist in other co untries, including including Indonesia Indonesia and and India. India. countries, Energy pricing decisions decisions are are often often motivated motivated by by Energy pricing the need to to keep keep energy energy affordable affordable for for large large populapopulathe need ti ons of of poor poor households. households. However, However, the the practical practical tions implementati on of of such such policy policy is is difficult. difficult. I It is often often implementation t is

difficult di fficult to to "target" target disadvantaged disadvantaged groups. groups. Energy Energy consumption of co comco nsumption surveys indicate indicate that the use use of mmercial mer cial fuels fuels is concentrated concentrated among among middle and upper income who upper income households, households, rather than the poor poor wh o rely mainly on rely on wood wood and charcoal. charcoal. Moreover, Moreover, iff subsidy programs can lead t to subsidy programs expand in scale, scale, they c an lead o outcomes o utcomes that penalize the very people people they are designed to designed to help. help. Thus, Thus, the the deteriorating deteriorating revenue revenue situation situati on of electricity electricity systems, systems, attributable in some some measure to measure to subsidized subsidized tariffs, tariffs, leads leads to to declining declining quality and availability of of p power can quality ower supplies, which which c an cause c ause factories factories and and workshops workshops to to stop stop operations, operations, thus increasing unemployment. unemployment. thus increasing

Th ough important, important, pricing pricing is is just just one one mechanism mechanism Though fo r influencing influencing energy energy demand. demand. Others Others include include for measures to cost-effective measures to inform inform consumers consumers of of co st-effective o pportunities to to save save energy, energy, the the imp osition of opportunities imposition of te chnical efficiency efficiency standards, standards, and and sponsorship sponsorship of of technical energy -efficient technologies. technologies. energy-efficient Devel oping countries, countries, frequently frequently aided aided by by donor donor Developing co untries and and organizations, organizations, have have made some pr ogcountries made some progress demand management management and conservation. F or ress in in demand and conservation. For example, the Association Association of of South-East South-East Asian Asian NaNaexample, the ti ons (ASEAN) (ASEAN) countries countries (see (see b ox 2-B) 2-B) have been tions box been parti cularly active active in conservation in oth industries particularly in conservation in b both industries and on, China and buildings. buildings. In In additi addition, China has has established established energy conservation technical technical centers, centers, which which have have energy conservation co ntributed to to the the sharp sharp decline decline in Chinas energy energy contributed in China's intensity. energy-saving pr otocols have intensity. In I n Brazil, Brazil, energy-saving protocols have been established with major industries. industries. Korea Korea has has been established with major co nducted major major audits audits of of large companies. Traffic Traffic conducted large companies. management schemes, designed designed mainly o alleviate management schemes, mainly t to alleviate co ngestion, but but with energy-saving bonus, bonus, have have congestion, with an an energy-saving been intr o du c ed in Brazil, Singap o re, Thailand, and been introduced in Brazil, Singapore, Thailand, and V enezuela. New, New, more more energy-efficient energy-efficient automobile automobile Venezuela. te chnologies have have been been introduced introduced in And technologies in India. India. And several impr o ved w oo d burning st o ves have been several improved wood-burning stoves have been intr oduced, at ne of ch appears o have introduced, at least least o one of whi which appears t to have 38 en j o yed co nsiderable su cc ess. On the instituti onal enjoyed considerable success.' On the institutional side, m o vements t o ward deregulati o n of e co n o mic side, movements toward deregulation of economic a ctivity, as as in 1980s, have oved the activity, in China China in in the the 1980s, have impr improved the co mpetitive environment environment under under which which energy energy decidecicompetitive sions contributed to imsi ons are taken and thus have co ntributed t o im pr o ved energy e ff i c ien c y. proved energy efficiency.
Signs of Success, vol.

Energy Efficiency and Energy Pricing in Developing Countries, op. cit., footnote 26. 37 Baldwin, Howard and Improved D g 38 t 4-5, 14, 4-5, 1985, 1985, pp. pp. 280-287. 280-287. 14, o No. S ta a I m d ue H l e B r a

Chapter 2--Energy and Economic Development Development 39 39 Chapter

Box 2-BEnergy 2-BEnergy Conservation Conservation Initiatives in ASEAN ASEAN Countries

In Southeast Southeast Asia, Asia, many many governments governments are are adopting adopting and and implementing implementing laws to to encourage encourage energy energy conservation conservation in buildings buildings and and industry. industry. Design Design standards standards have have been been enact@ enact@ or or are are being being considered, considered, in most most ASEAN ASEAN countries. countries. of energy energy In Malaysia, Malaysia, the the Ministry Ministry of Energy, Telecommunications, Telecommunications, and and Posts Posts has has embarked embarked on on development development of standards for reducing by 1991 1991 (5 to 15 percent for for new new buildings, with the goal goal of of redu cing overall overall usage usage by 10 10 percent percent by (5 t o 15 percent fo r relating t to gain thr through building envelopes). lighting, 5 5 to to 10 percent percent for for air-conditioning, air-conditioning, and 15 to to 20 20 percent percent relating o heat heat gain ough building envelopes). These standards standards were were widely circulated circulated for for review, and were were expected expected to to be be implemented implemented during during 1989. 1989. Some Some energy energy audits have audits have been been commissioned.' commissioned.l required by by law t to have energy energy management management pr programs, and In the Philippines, major major energy consumers consumers are required o have ograms, and Office 0EA large customers customers must report report their consumption consumption to to the O ffice of Energy Affairs Affairs (OEA) (OEA) quarterly. The OE A offers offers a wide range range of conservation conservation services, services, including including an energy energy management management training program, program, energy energy conservation conservation a wide brie fings, industry-specific industry-specific publications, publications, assistance assistance to to the the Energy Energy Management Management Association Association of of the Philippines Philippines (a (a briefings, private -sector group), group), consulting consulting and and audits, audits, efficiency efficiency testing, testing, and and industrial industrial efficiency efficiency monitoring. monitoring. The The Omnibus Omnibus private-sector Energy Conservation Conservation Law Law mandates mandates the the development development of of standards standards for for energy energy use use in commercial commercial buildings, buildings, fo r for building construction materials, materials, and and for for designs designs of of commercial commercial and and industrial industrial buildings buildings prior prior t o the ce of building construction to the issuan issuance of permits for building or fo r adding adding equipment equipment such such as as air-conditioning air-conditioning units. permits for building or for units. Singap ore encourages encourages conservation conservation through through educational educational programs. programs. Indirect Indirect controls controls imposed imposed by by the the Singapore g overnments Building Building Control Control Department Department standardize standardize various various design design features, features, such such as overhangs and ced government's as overhangs and redu reduced wind ow area area to to decrease decrease demands demands for for air nditioning. window air co conditioning. In Thailand, the the government's governments Sixth Sixth National National Economic Economic and and Social Social Development Development Plan Plan (1987-91) (1987-91) specified specified In Thailand, targets for increased increased efficiency efficiency in in transportation, transportation, industry, industry, and and households. households. Tax Tax reductions reductions and and low-interest low-interest loans loans targets for fo r energy energy conservation conservation equipment equipment are are available. available. for
Malaysia areas follows: 1) Buildings whose connected electric service is over 250 1 T separate meters to have have meters for lighting and outlets and for air conditioning systems. systems. 2) 2) Lighting Lighting loads loads are are specified specified for for interior interior spaces, spaces, several several building roads and vicinity of h interiors, building interiors, and and roads and grounds grounds in in the the vicinity of the the building. building. Lighting Lighting controls controls are are specified. specified. 3) 3) For For air air conditioning, conditioning, dry dry bulb bulb plus temperatures are set at 25 degrees 65 e temperatures are set at 25 degrees Celsius Celsius and and relative relative humidity humidity at at 6percent, plus or or minus minus 5 5 percent. percent. Automatic Automatic setback setback and and shutoff shutoff systems systems are required. required. 1

9 8 6 s and related traditi onal technologies technologies generally generally have have and related traditional t a llow ow efficiencies efficiencies and and limited limited output output and and productivity productivity n levels (see ch. ch. 3). 3). levels (see d Tw o-thirds of the the developing developing worlds worlds population population Two-thirds of a s ome 2.5 2.5 billion people--live people--live in in rural rural areas' areas 39 with some with In many areas, areas, biomass biomass supplies supplies are are diminishing diminishing r billion In many l ow standards standards of living based largely largely on on lowlowd low of living based due to a a host host of actors, including including population population gr owth due to of f factors, growth res ources farming. farming. This is charactercharacterThis type type of of farming farming is resource and the expansi o n of agri c ultural lands, co mmer cial and the expansion of agricultural lands, commercial i ized by nhigh high labor labor requirements, requirements, low low productivity productivity ized by llogging, ogging, and and fuelwood fuelwood use use (see (see ch. ch. 5). 5). The The poorest poorest per hectare and, because because of of the marginal subsistence, subsistence, s per hectare and, the marginal rural people often often have have limited access to to even even these these rural people limited access t str o ng risk aversi o n. Rural p o pulati o ns have little little strong risk aversion. Rural populations have res o ur c es and, there fo re, must spend l o nger peri ods resources and, therefore, must spend longer periods i a ccess to t o commercial fuels and technologies and access of time foraging foraging for for fuel fuel sources--exacerbating sources--exacerbating their their of time t commercial fuels and technologies and o nly limited limited connection with with the the modern modern economy. economy. u only connection already difficult economic economic position. position. already difficult t fuels satisfy the heating and cooking needs Bi o mass Biomass fuels satisfy the heating and cooking needs e of these populations, and and muscle muscle power power largely Traditi onal villages villages are are complex, complex, highly highly interconinterconof these largely Traditional d populations, pr o vides fo r their agri c ultural, industrial, and trans ne c ted systems that are c are f ully tuned o their providesi for their agricultural, industrial, and transnected systems that are carefully tuned t to their n n energy needs. Although these energy p o rtati o envir o nment and the harsh realities of surviving on portation energy needs. Although these energy environment and the harsh realities of surviving on M 40 s o ur c es pr o vide c ru c ial energy servi c es at little o r n o meager res o ur c es. Be c ause the villages are largely sources a provide crucial energy services at little or no meager resources.'Because the villages are largely dire ct financial finan cial cost, cost, biomass biomass fuels, fuels, muscle muscle power, power, c losed systems, systems, changes changes in any one one part ffect o ther l direct closed in any part a affect other a y World Development Report 1989, op. cit., footnote 39 s @See, for et W Science, vol. 230, No. 4726, Nov. @See, ifor example, M.B. Coughenour et a l Energy Extraction and Use in a Nomadic Pastoral 1985, 619-625; o " r pp. " Ea n e r g I.S. y Singh, Urna Pandey, 1985, pp. 619-625; Pandey, and and A.K. Tiwari, Man " M a n and and Forests: Forests: A A Central CentrsHimalayan Case Case Study, Study," AMBIO, vol. vol. 13, 13, No. No. 2, 2, 1984, 1984, pp. 80-87; N. Reddy, d x a pp. lE 80-87; and Reddy, An "An Indian Indian Village Village Agricultural Agricultural Ecosystem-Case Ecosystem-Case Study Study of of Ungm Village, Village, Part Part II: II: Discussion Discussion" Biomass, tAmulya r a cKnmar t i and o n N. 1, 1981, pp. 77-88. vol.B 1,1981, a d r n pp. 77-88. a U e e s n i n a k a s

Energy and The Traditional Sector

 Energy in Developing Countries 40 Countries

n agricultural elements of of village village life. life. Changes Changes iin agricultural practices, pra ctices, for for example, example, change change the the amount amount and type type of energy supplies supplies available. available. In turn, energy energy sector sector developments, devel opments, such such as rural electrification, electrification, can can have major ma jor impacts impacts on on agricultural agricultural practice practice and income income distribution. distributi on. Making Making changes changes in rural systems systems frefrequently proves proves difficult difficult due due to to the large large risks that changes c hanges can can pose pose to to populations populations living on on the margin of subsistence. of subsistence.

beneficibut a short short delay leaves weeds weeds as as the main main bene ficiaries. 42 L a b or requirements to aries. Lab to harvest crops are similarly peaked figure 2-9). there similarly peaked (see (see f igure 2 -9). Thus, while there may be labor surplus during during m most of the the year, year, may be a large lab or surplus ost of labor shortages critical planting and and lab or sh ortages occur occur during the c ritical planting harvesting seasons. harvesting seasons. Studies Studies of African African agriculture agriculture indicate tthe h e major indi cate that labor labor is major scarce scarce resource resource in food " foo d production.' production. '43 Modern could labor M odern equipment co uld reduce reduce the high lab or demands during planting and demands during and harvesting. Even Even when when the necessary commercial commercial f uels are are available, available, howhowthe necessary fuels ever, modern agri cultural equipment equipment is often often prohibprohibever, modern agricultural itively costly t o pur chase o r rent due o the ort itively costly to purchase or due t to the very very sh short 44 peri od in which it can be be profitably profitably used. Rela period i n which i t can useeR elatively low-cost traditional traditional technologies technologies face face similar similar tively low-cost co st barriers. barriers. For For example, example, the the average average animalanimalcost drawn cart in Ungra, India, is used used at ust 6 cent drawn cart in Ungra, India, is at j just 6 per percent of annual capacity capacity .45 .45 of its its annual

The following following sections sections examine examine four four of of the major major f actors that that affect affect the the linkages linkages between between energy energy and factors the economic economic and and social social devel opment of rural development rural e conomies: seasonality; seasonality; inequities inequities iin the distribudistribueconomies: n the tion commerti on of and access access to to resources; resources; the role role of co mmerc ial bi o mass in the rural e co n o my ; and gender issues cial biomass in the rural economy; and gender issues in lab o r. Me c hanizing the mundane tasks of rural in labor. Mechanizing the mundane tasks of rural li fe, a a process process facilitated facilitated by by the the introduction introduction of of life, m odern fuels, fuels, could could greatly greatly increase increase the the productivity productivity modern of rural peoples. peoples. To To bring bring about about improvements, improvements, of rural h o wever, will require paying c l o se attention to to the the however, will require paying close attention numer o us related co mpli c ati o ns, su c h as seas o nal numerous related complications, such as seasonality, the type type of of task, task, culture-specific culture-specific labor labor roles, roles, ity, the c hildrens labor, labor, and and many many others. others. children's

Seasonality

The seasons affect affect every every aspect aspect of life: the the The seasons of rural rural life: availability of food, food, fuel, fuel, and and employment; employment; the the availability of in cidence of of disease; disease; and and even even the the rates rates of of f ertility incidence fertility and mortality .41 .41 Labor Labor requirements requirements for for planting planting are are and mortality seas onally peaked peaked to to take take advantage advantage of of limited seasonally limited rain fall and and other other favorable favorable growing growing conditions. conditions. rainfall W hen rains rains begin, begin, soil soil bacteria bacteria multiply multiply rapidly rapidly and and When break down the the dead dead plant plant matter matter in in the the soil soil left left by by break down the dry season; season; this this process process releases releases a a large large amount amount the dry of organic nitrogen nitrogen in in the the soil. soil. Crops Crops planted planted quickly quickly of organic a fter the the rainfall rainfall can can take take advantage advantage of of this nitrogen, after this nitrogen,

Dra ft animal animal technologies technologies can can ease ease critical critical seaseaDraft s onal labor labor shortages shortages to to some some extent. extent. Draft Draft animals, sonal animals, h owever, can can only only be be used used productively productively fo r little however, for little m ore than the short short gr owing season, season, yet yet these more than the growing these animals require food food year year round. round. Limited Limited uses uses fo r animals require for dra f t animals, co upled with their high foo d require draft animals, coupled with their high food requirements, redu c e the average dra f t animal e ff i c ien c ies ments, reduce the average draft animal efficiencies t o just just a a few few per cent. Because Because of to percent. of the the limited limited supplies supplies of fo fodder semi-starve draft of dder available, farmers farmers often often semi -starve dra ft animals in o order to fodder for when the the animals animals animals rder t o save save fo dder fo r when need their strength strength 46 to plow plow the the dry-baked dry-baked ground ground o r need their to or shortage of ft animals fo r other other purposes. purposes. ' A for A shortage of dra draft 'animals may limit crops crops to to just just one one per year-even in areas may limit per year-even in areas 47 with p o tential fo r d o uble c r o pping. with potential for double cropping.' A lthough agriculture agriculture demands demands very very high high levels levels of of Although lab o r during the peak seas o ns, during the remainder labor during the peak seasons, during the remainder of the year, year, rural rural areas areas experience experience serious serious underunderof the

h of a a 4n 4 n (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins m (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University University Press Press for for the the World WorldBank, 1987). 1987). Pe r K b a b a rates, villagers preferred lower cost wooden wheels pneumatic tires until the depletion 45 o e h u of resources caused the price of wooden wheels to rise At the same time, these price rises led to an A of timber timber resources caused the price of wooden wheels to risesignificandy. At the same time, these price rises led to an active active market market in in second-hand second-hand o r P traditional carts. s traditional carts. H I Somashekar, N.H. Ravindranath, Ravindranath, and and Amulya Kumar N. N. Reddy, Reddy, Studies Studies on on the the Ungra Village Village Agricultural Agricultural Ecosystem, Ecosystem, Part Part 111: p s ia Animal Drawn Carts Carts a and Transport (Bangalore, India: India: AS-no AS-no date). Animal Drawn n d Transport m , n c H.I. Somashekar, N.H. Ravittdranath, and and Amulya Kumar N. N. Reddy, Studies Studies on on the the Ungra Village Village Agricultural Agricultural Ecosystem Ecosystem Part Part III: 111: Animal Drawn a R g o and op. cit., footnote 45; Jane Bartlett and David Gibbon, Animal Draught Technology: An Annotated Bibliography Carts and Transport, Transport, op. Carts cit., footnote 45; Jane Bartlett and David Gibbon,Animal Draught Technology: An Annotated Bibliography (London: ITDG, n ia 1984); Peter Munzinger, Animal Animal Traction n Peter 1984); Traction in in Africa (Eschborn, West West Germany: a r z , 1982). 1982). H c ls Biomass Based Energy fOr a South Biomass, vol. 9, No. 3,1986, pp. 215-233. e 47 h ie n / a , q n s1 r Y u , 11 d v e " . L e n F R o s c

Chambers, Richard and Arnold Seasonal Dimensions to Rural Poverty Frances Publishers, Ltd., 41 and andR Ibttawa, NJ: NJ: Allanheld, Osmun & Co., Co., 1981); 1981); Robert Robert Chambers, Chambers, RuralPoverty "RuralPoverty Unperceived: Unperceived: Problems Problems and and Remedies, Remedies ,"World Development, vol. 9, 1981, 1-19. o b pp. 1-19. 9,1981,pp. 42 e r Chambers, Richard Seasonal Dimensions Robert 'Robert Chambers, Richard Longhurst, and and Arnold Arnold Pacey (eds.), Seasonal Dimensions to Rural Poverty, Poverty, op. op. cit., cit., footnote footnote 41, 41, pp. pp. 10-11. 10-11. t and for Africas 11, 4 3 C No. 12, 1983, 1043-1055. No.12, J e 1983, pp. 1043-1055.

Figure 2-9-Seasonal Pattern Figure Pattern of Energy Expenditure on Agricultural Agricultural and Other Other Essential Tasks: Adult Farmers, Genieri Village Essential 2000 Kcal/day 2000

1600 1600

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r i I t I _ j p 1 1 800 800 2 H - -I

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Chapter 2--Energy and Economic Development Development .441 1 Chapter

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SOURCE: MacMillan Press, Ltd., 1981). SOURCE: Margaret Haswell, Energy for for Subsistence Subsistence (London: MacMillan

empl oyment. In In turn, turn, this this seasonal seasonal unemployment unemployment in employment. in rural areas propels propels a a large large amount amount of of both both seasonal seasonal rural areas and permanent migration migration to to urban urban areas. areas.48IIn Africa and permanent n Africa and Asia, where where the the migrants migrants are are mostly mostly men,' men, 49 and Asia, m ore of of the the burden burden for for subsistence subsistence crop crop production production more is shifted to to the the women women who who stay stay behind. behind. Migration Migration is shifted t o cities cities increases increases pressure pressure on on forests forests as as well, well, bebeto c ause urban urban dwellers dwellers generally generally purchase purchase their w ood cause wood supplies, which are are likely likely to to be be derived derived from from cutting cutting supplies, which wh ole trees, trees, rather rather than than the the gathering gathering of and whole of twigs twigs and bran ches as as is is more more typical typical of of rural rural foragers. foragers. branches The seasons also also a ffect the The seasons affect the availability availability and and usability of renewable renewable energy energy resources. resources. During During the the usability of

rainy season, wood wood is less easily btained and ore rainy season, is less easily o obtained and m more di fficult t o burn burn than onths. In difficult to than during during the the drier drier m months. In areas heavily dependent dependent on on crop crop residues residues for for fuel, fuel, areas heavily sh ortages at at the the end end of season can can force force the shortages of the the dry dry season the use of noxious noxious weeds weeds as as substitutes, substitutes, particularly particularly by by use of the very poor. poor.50The The use use of ogas is the very of bi biogas is limited limited by by the the availability of dung, which in Ungra, India, India, varies varies availability of dung, which in Ungra, fo r adult c attle f r o m 3.5 kg / day during the 7 m onth for adult cattle from 3.5 kg/day during the 7-month dry season t o 7.4 7.4 kg /day during on.51 dry season to kg/day during the the wet wet seas season.' C orrespondingly, in mountainous areas areas o r elsewhere Correspondingly, in mountainous or elsewhere with large seasonal seasonal temperature temperature variations, variations, f uel with large fuel demands can increase increase significantly significantly during demands can during the the winter. In a Kashmir Kashmir village, village, for for example, example, wood wood winter. I n a

. Todaro, Economic Development Development in in the the T Third Inc., 1977); "Michael P p. h i r d World World (New (New York, NY: Longman, Inc., 1977); Gerald M. M. Meier, Leading Leading Issues Issues in in Economic Development, Development, 4th 4th ed. (New (New York, NY: NY: Oxford Oxford University University Press, Press, 1984); 1984); Scott S c o t t M. M. Swinton, Peasant Peasant Farming Practices Practices and and Off-Farm Off-Farm Employment in in Puebla, Mexico (Ithaca, NY: University, 1983). 1983). Employment NY: Cornell Cornell University,
49

48, pp.

America more

men migrate. Mnow i men now migrate.

c 5h a e a1 l5 V N. P a1 1 . r . T u R

Energy and the Poor in an

Village, for a

v ol. 12, No. 8, 1984, pp. 821-836.

op. Cit.,

47.

42 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries

demands during during the the winter are four four times higher than during the the summer.' summer.52

this case, this case, collecting collecting biomass biomass resources resources may prove prove less burdensome i t appears.' less burdensome than it appears.57 If I f wood wood is scarce, scarce, villagers use use crop crop wastes, wastes, dung, dung, or other o ro ther less desirable fuels. fuels. To To the village user, the immediate value of these f fuels immediate uels outweighs outweighs their potential n India, p otential long-term long-term environmental environmental costs. costs.58 IIn for ton of co cow to fields fo r example, a t on of w dung applied t o the f ields produces production pr oduces an estimated increase increase in grain pr oduction worth burned eliminates eliminates the the w orth $8 (U.S. (U.S. dollars), dollars), but iif f burned 59 need for worth n the market. market.' The need for firewood firewood w orth $27 iin The diversion crop soil diversi on of c rop residues, previously previously used as s oil enhan cers, to to f uel use use may lead t oal ong-term l oss enhancers, fuel to long-term loss in oil f ertility unless off set by in creased use of in s soil fertility offset increased of chemical c hemical fertilizers. fertilizers.

Inequities in Resource Resource Distribution and Access and Access

I n regions In regions where biomass biomass fuel fuel supplies are limited-particularly limited -particularly those those with dry climates climates and/or and/or high population population densities-rural densities-rural people people may may travel travel long l ong distances distances to to collect collect fuel fuel for for domestic domestic use, use, as much mu ch as 20 miles round round trip in some some areas under spe cial conditions. conditions. More More generally, generally, when when wood wood is is special s carce they they rely rely on on crop crop wastes, wastes, animal animal dung, dung, or or scarce other time o ther materials materials as as substitutes. substitutes. Estimates Estimates of of time spent in foraging range as as high as as 200 t o 300 in foraging to pers on-days p per year per per household household i in Nepal. 53 person-days e r year n Nepal." F oraging is is also also heavy heavy work. work. I In Burkina Faso, Faso, Foraging n Burkina typi cal headloads headloads weigh weigh 27 27 kg kg (60 (60 pounds) pounds) .54 .54 In typical In many regions, women women and and children children shoulder shoulder most most of of many regions, the burden. the burden.

Despite these heavy heavy burdens, burdens, villagers villagers often often Despite these pre fer to to invest invest their their capital capital and and labor labor in technoloprefer in technologies for income-producing income-producing activities, activities, such such as as yarn yarn gies for spinners, rather than than in in fuel-conserving fuel-conserving stoves stoves or or spinners, rather tree -growing efforts.'Reasons efforts.55 Reasons for for this this investment investment tree-growing pre ference include include lack lack of of cash cash income; income; the the ability ability to to preference minimize wood wood use or or to to switch switch to to alternative fuels fuels when wood wood becomes becomes scarce; scarce;56conflicts conflicts over over ownerownership of land land or or trees; trees; and and easy easy access access to to common common ship of lands. In addition, addition, villagers villagers often often carry carry out out fuelwood fuelwood lands. In co llection in in conjunction conjunction with with other other tasks, tasks, such such as as collection walking to and and from from the the fields fields or or herding herding animals. walking to animals. In In

L ocal fuel fuel shortages shortages often often have have their ost seri ous Local their m most serious impa cts on on rural landless and/or and/or marginal armers impacts rural landless marginal f farmers with access to to fuel fuel supplies. supplies. The The poor poor may o with little little access may als also sometimes s ometimes be be denied denied access access to to their traditional traditional fuel fuel sources s ources when when the the market market value value of of biomass biomass rises. rises.60 6or example, F example, farm farm laborers laborers in Haryana, India, India, are are For in Haryana. ' ow sometimes n sometimes paid paid in crop residues residues for for f uel rather rather now in crop fuel than in cash, although although previously previously they they had had free free than i n cash, a ccess to to these these agri cultural wastes.' wastes.6l access agricultural

The The Role Role of of Women Women

Women most W omen shoulder shoulder the burden of m ost domestic domestic tasks, including foraging foraging fo r fuelwood fuelwood and king. tasks, including for and coo cooking. In o per form mu ch of I n many many areas areas they they als also perform much of the the subsisten ce agricultural agricultural labor. labor. A A 1928 1928 survey survey of subsistence of 140 140 Sub -Saharan ethni c groups groups fo und that omen c arSub-Saharan ethnic found that w women "carried major responsibility responsibility for for food food f arming " iin 85 ried a a major farming" n 8 5 per cent of cases, and and did percent of the the cases, did all all but but the the initial initial land land

s2majid Hussain, Fuel "Fuel Co nsumption Patterns Patterns in in High High Altitude Altitude Zones Zones of of Kashmir Kashmir and andLadakh," Energy Energy Environment Environment Monitor Monitor (India), vol. vol. 3, 3, No. No. 2, 2, September September 1987, 1987, pp. pp. 57-62. 57-62. and ManandForests: A Central Case Study, vol. 12, No. 2,1984, pp. 80-87; 53js Singh, U m a Pandey, and A I C T i Energy Strategies in Research Center La! w Sbrestha, Energy Strategies in Nepal Nepal and Technological Technological Options Options (Nepal: (Nepal: Research Center for for Applied Applied Science Science and and Technology, Technology, Tribhuvan ar University, for the End End-Use University, for the Use Oriented Oriented Global Global Energy Energy Workshop, Workshop, Sao SatPaulo, Brazil, Brazil, June June 1984). 1984). The The World World Bank Bank Energy Energy Sector Sector Assessment Assessment for for Nepal Nepal i estimated estimated 16 percent percent of of all labor labor went went for for fuelwood and and animal animal fodder fodder collection. collection. , M that 16 Fuel Co a n Ernest, a n ME. "Fuel Co nsumption Among Rural Rural Families Families in in Upper Upper Volta, West West Africa," paper paper presented presented at at Eighth Eighth World World Forestry Forestry Conference, Conference, Jakarta, d F 1978. Indonesia, 1978. o r e s Poor in an Indian Village, op. cit., 55 t V Resolving the s.sphit O'Keefe and and Barry Barry Munslow, "Resolving the Irresolvable: Irresolvable: The TheFuelwood Problem Problem in in Eastern Eastern and and Southern SoutherrAfrica," paper paper presented presented at at the the s a r Eastern and Southern Africa Household Energy we, Feb. g Seminar, ESMAP Eastern and Seminar, Harare, Harare,Zimbabwe, Feb. 1-5, 1-5, 1988. 1988. : A Southern Africa Household EnergyPlanning un Energy Womens Time, Energy Journal, vol. 8, 1987, pp. 125-146. C 57 e n t r a l H i m V a l a y a n I r8 B and Lars Agricultural Residues as Fuel in the Third World (Washington, DC, and London: and i5 C a s en International Institute for Environment Environment and Developmen,% Development% Energy Energy Information d International Institute for and Information Program, Technical Technical Report Report No. No. 4, 4, 1985). 1985). O e e From Energy, No. 1, 1984, y e oG 59 S t u d T a f f see also Judicious Use of Dung in the Third World, Energy, vol. 14, No. 6, 1989, pp. 349-352; Eric . see y also O.C. "Judicious Use of Dung in the Third World," Energy, vol. 14. No. 6, 1989, pp. 349-352; Eric Eckholm et et al., al., Fuetwood: The The , Aggarwal, " i e Crisis r Energy That Wont Go Away (London: Earthscan, 1984), Energy Won't Go Away 1984), p. p. 105; 105; Ken Ken Newcombe, Newcombe, World World Bank, Bank, Energy Energy Department, AnEconomic "AnEconomic Justification c Crisis That A M B n t y for Rural The Case of Ethiopia, 1984. for I The .Rural Afforestation: O , Case of Ethiopia," 1984. k h B and Poor an Indian Village, Op. Cit., footnote Ao v c v o e ia g, a r u l . 61 for Science 1984-85: The Second Second Citizens Report (New Delhi:1985). 61 centre for Science and Environment, The State of of India's Environment 1984-85: Citizen's Report r " r g n 1 , E n a i r V 2 " n a wy d , T e r l a N h r r d a t o eh g a

Chapter 2--Energy and Economic Development Development . 443 3 Chapter

clearing n 40 In contrast, c learing iin 40 percent percent of the cases!' cases.62 In contrast, the Muslim Muslim custom custom of Purdah, for for example, example, tends tends to to keep women women near near their homes homes and and away away from from the fields f ields in in Bangladesh.' Bangladesh.63 As As women's womens work work often often does does not n ot produce produce any any cash cash revenue, revenue, opportunities opportunities for for introducing intr oducing energyenergy- and and labor-saving labor-saving technologies technologies for fo r women's womens work work are limited. limited. Improving Improving labor labor productivity pr oductivity and energy energy efficiency efficiency in rural areas areas will thus require require special special attention attention to to the the role role of women. women.

boys b oys become become net producers-producing producers-producing more more than they consume-and efficient in wage wage they consume-and are nearly as e fficient in work more w ork as men. By age age 15, boys boys have produced produced m ore than their c cumulative consumption from than umulative co nsumption f rom birth, and own by 22 they have compensated compensated for for their o wn and and one one siblings The major role sibling s cumulative cumulative consumption.' consumption.68 The major r ole helps explain explain high f ertility of children fertility of children in farming farming helps rates in in rural rural areas. rates areas.

The careless careless introduction introduction of of labor-saving labor-saving technoltechnolo gies could could increase increase the the burden burden on on women. women. For For ogies example, the the introduction introduction of of animal animal or or mechanical mechanical tra ction for for land land preparation preparation and and planting planting increases increases traction the area area that that men men can can cultivate, cultivate, but but does does nothing nothing to to assist women in in weeding, weeding, harvesting, harvesting, post-harvest post-harvest assist women foo d preparation, preparation, storage, storage, and and other other tasks." tasks.64 food The migration of of men to look look fo r urban ork The migration men to for urban w work leaves women leaves women to to fulfill fulfill traditional traditional male male roles roles as as well well as their their own. own. In Uttar Pradesh, Pradesh, India, India, the male:female male:female rati o in in villages villages is is 1:1.4 1:1.4 for for the the working working age age group group of of ratio 65 15 to 50 50 years. Kenya, a a quarter 15 to y e a r s . ' In I n Kenya, quarter of of rural rural h ouseholds are are headed headed by by womenin womenin Botswana, Botswana, 40 40 households per cent. 66 Yet the the remittances remittances of of the the migrants migrants can can percent. 'Yet make an important important contribution contribution to to rural rural household household make an finances. f inances. Children, too, play play an an important important role role in in rural rural Children, too, lab or, freeing freeing adults adults tto o perform perform more more difficult difficult labor, 67 tasks. Bangladesh, for for example, example, children children begin begin tasks.' In In Bangladesh, per forming certain certain tasks tasks as as early early as as age age 4. 4. By By age age 12, 12, performing

The Role Role of of Commercial Commercial Biomass in The the the Rural Economy
W hile much much biomass biomass is is used used locally, locally, rural areas areas While are als also the s source of substantial substantial am amounts of are o the ource of ounts of fuelwood in f uelwood (both (both firewood firewood and charcoal) charcoal) used in t owns.69 This trade trade pumps pumps relatively relatively large ounts towns.'This large am amounts of ash int o the the rural economy and ovides mu chof c cash into rural economy and pr provides muchneeded employment to to rural rural dwellers dwellers during during nonnonneeded employment agri cultural seasons. seasons. To To supply supply Ouagadougou, Ouagadougou, BurBuragricultural kina Faso, w with wood during during 1975, 1975, for for example, example, kina Faso, i t h wood required some 325,000 325,000 person-days person-days of of lab or and required some labor and generated over $500,000 $500,000 in income dire ctly and generated over in income directly and an an additi onal $2.5 $2.5 million million in in income income through through transport transport additional and distribution.70 Su ch marketing orks can can be and distribution.' Such marketing netw networks be quite extensive and and complex.' complex.71 quite extensive In many countries, countries, people people in the poorest poorest areas, areas, In many in the where conditions do do not not permit permit expansion expansion of rop o r where conditions of c crop or animal production and and natural woody vegetati on is animal production natural woody vegetation is the nly res ource, depend n sales the o only resource, depend heavily heavily o on sales of of

Feeding the Cities and Feeding the ts: What Role for Africas Women Farmers? op. cit., footnote 43. 62j e a of children in a Village in Population and Review, 63 n 1977, pp. 201-227; and Marilyn Mn pp. 1977, 201-227; Gloria L. Scott Scott and MarilynCarr, The T h e Impact Impact of of Technology Technology Choice Choice on onRural Women Women in in Bangladesh Bangladesh" World WorldBank, Staff StalTWorldng e a No.731, Washington Paper e Paper Washington DC, DC, 1985. 1985. K d "Peter Munzinger, Animal Traction Traction In Africa, Op. Op. cit., footnote 46 o T and Forests: A yan Case Study, op. cit., footnote 40. o 6 5 . p 1 .6 and Policies in P. 39. 6 C m 5 W a Childrens labor, especially daughters, is usually more tban husbands in easing a work bottleneck for 6 7 a or i. women. Ingrid Seasonal Dimensions Dimensions of Roles, in women." Ingrid Palmer, Palmer, "Seasonal o f Womens Women's Roles," in Robert Robert Chambers, Chambers, Richard Richard Longhurst, and and Arnold Arnold Pacey Pacey (eds.), Seasonal Seasonal I n n S ld n Dimensions to Rural Rural Poverty, Poverty, op. op. cit., 41. Dimensions to cit., footnote footnote 41. g r H i B , of a op. Cit., 63. i 6d8 e n a " P M n g value of commercialized and charcoal exceeds 10 percent of the gross domestic product in countries such as Burkina Faso, 69 n T a e n and Rwanda and exceeds 5 h and and exceeds 5 percent percent in in Liberia, Indonesia, Indonesia, Zaire, Zaire, Mali, Mali, and and Haiti. Haiti. Philip Philip Wade Wade and and Massimo Palmieri, What "What Does Does Fuelwood Really Really 1Rwanda 'a k h ld UNASYLVA, vol. 33, No. 131, 1981, pp. , Strategies for Cost? Cost?" George F. F. Taylor, Taylor, II, II, and and Moustafa Soumare, Sonmare, "Strategies for Forestry Forestry Development Development in in the the West West h e UNASYLVA, vol. 33 , No 131, 1981, pp. 20-23. George , e m T African Sahel: A An 23 and and 24, " U African Sahel: n Overview, Overview," Rural Africana, Nos. Nos. 23 24, Fall Fall 1985 1985 and and Winter Winter 1986. 1986. v P E e . F l and Rural Communities, Natural Resources Forum, vol. 3, 1979, pp. 229-252. a0 o c 7 r C e n l p o in the Nos. 23 1985 Winter J. h 7IAlainBertrand, "Marketing Networks for Forest Fuels to Supply Urban Centers in the Sahel,"RuralAfricana, Nos. 23 and 24, Fall 1985 and Winter a e a u n E. 1986. a i d P e l o M, s n i a o a m A n , n f it r o " g d i c n t

E Energy n e r g y in Developing Countries 44 .

firewood f irewood for for their income.'Similarly, income.72 Similarly, when crops crops fail, n Banglaf ail, charcoal charcoal production'or, production73--or, as as iin Banglafarm desh, the cutting cutting of wood wood from fr om f arm hedgerows hedgerows grown gr own in part as an economic economic buffer buffer to to be sold sold before before more m ore valuable valuable livestock livestock and laneprovides land74provides alalternatives for for earning earning cash. cash. In India, India, for for example, example, "headloading" headloading (individuals (individuals carrying carrying wood wood to to urban urban markets on on their their heads) heads) has has become become an important important s source ource of income income for for perhaps 2 to to 3 million million people people .75

The response response of of rural rural peoples peoples to to fuel fuel shortages shortages varies widely. widely. Some Some sell sell wood wood to to urban urban markets markets and and use the the lower lower quality quality residues residues themselves. themselves. Others Others use dung for for fuel fuel rather rather than than for for fertilizer. fertilizer. In In Malawi, Malawi, use clung t o grow grow sufficient sufficient fuel fuel for for household household use use on on the the to typi cal family family farm farm would would displace displace maize maize worth worth typical perhaps 30 times times more; more; collecting collecting "free" free wood wood perhaps 30 pr oves much much easier.' easier.76 In contrast, aerial aerial surveys surveys of of proves In contrast, Kenya have shown shown that that hedgerow hedgerow planting planting increases increases Kenya have with population density-demonstrating density-demonstrating that that villagvillagwith population ers respond to to the the reduced reduced opportunity opportunity of of collecting collecting ers respond f ree wood wood from from communal communal lands lands by by growing growing their free their w n .77 own.

ent trends in energy and economic growth continue ent economic gr owth co ntinue into future, increase in co commercial int o the f uture, a sharp in crease in mmercial energy consumption countries be energy consumption in developing developing co untries will be required. Substantial n supplies of required. Substantial increases increases iin of biobiomass fuels prospect raises mass fuels will also also be be needed. This pr ospect raises a dilemma. On the o one energy a ne hand, increases increases in energy supplies on supplies on this scale scale would would severely severely strain finanfinancial, c ial, manpower, manpower, and environmental environmental resources. resources. But o n the the other, other, inability inability t o supply supply needed needed energy an on to energy c can ffrustrate rustrate economic economic and and social social development. development.

Conclusion
High rates of of economic economic growth growth will will be be needed needed in High rates in devel oping countries countries to to provide provide the the rapidly rapidly growing growing developing p opulation with with improved improved living living standards. standards. I prespopulation If f pres-

77

One o res olve this dilemma lies in distin One way t to resolve distinguishing between the energy that consumed and guishing between the energy that is is consumed and the services derived derived from from it. it. Technological Technological improveimprovethe services ments and other other means means offer offer the potential of ments and the potential of greatly greatly impr oving the the efficiency efficiency of of energy energy use-providing use-providing improving m ore of of the the energy energy services services needed needed for for development development more while co nsuming less energy. The next hapter while consuming less energy. The next c chapter pr ovides an an introduction introduction to to the the services services provided provided by provides by energy, and how how they urrently delivered, energy, and they are are c currently delivered, with with a a view o identi fying potentials potentials fo r impr oving e ffiview t to identifying for improving efficiencies. c iencies.

Energy and Rural Communities, op. cit., footnote 70, for Science and The of Indias 72J Environment 1984-85: The The Second Second Citizen's Citizens Report, Report, op. op. cit., footnote Environment 1984-85: footnote 61. 61. . E and de Biomass For Fuel and Food-A Parallel Necessity, draft for in Solar Energy, Karl W. Boer (cd.), vol. 73 . 3, 10, 1986; 1986; RafigulHudaaaaudhury, The 3, Jan. Jan. "The Seasonality of of Prices Prices and and Wages Wages in inBangladesh," in in Robert Robert Chambers, Chambers, Richard RichardLonghurst, and and Arnold Arnold 1 1 10, m Seasonal Dimensions Dimensions to to Rural Rural Poverty, Poverty, op. op. cit., Pacey(eds.)5easonal cit., footnote footnote 41. 41. 0. . J. SUpplying Firewood for Household Energy, in M. H4 Richard Morse, and M. Hadi Soesastro 7 A a Energy To Meet Energy (Boulder, CO: CO: WestView WestView Press, Press, 1984). 1984). R i To Meet Development Needs (Boulder, r l for Science of 1984-85: The Second Citizen sReport, o p. c i t ., footnote p. ck 7 5 n t . C Economics of Developing in H. et al. Bioenergy 84, Volume V: in Developing o 76D a 1n (Amsterdam: Countries le Countries (Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1985). 1985). It It is is estimated estimated that that 90 90 percent percent of otall rural rural households households collect collect all all their their woo@ woo@10 percent purchase purchase some some of of their their . n . r at t Urban households buy their wood at a cost of plantation-derived fuelwood can cost $1.50 to wood d wood at $0.501m or F r d V e A loss of In , 3 o r $200/GI. A farmer farmer could could plant plant trees, trees, but but the the loss of 0.4 0.4 hectare hectare of of farmland farmland reduces reduces maize maize production production by by a a total total of of $125 $125and and profit profit by by $30. $30.Contrast, e F a produced on 0.4 hectare f trees " trees be worth worth $6 $6 in in 7 7 years. years. $ 0 0 4 / on 0.4 hectare will be n T .produced n o A. Van OS. 4-5,1985, PP. G IW . c d P.N. Bradley, N. N. Chavangi, and and A. Van Gelder, Development "Development Research Research and and Energy Energy Planning Planning in Kenya, Kenya," AMBIO, vol. 14,N Nos. PP. D r U o r b 228-236. h e e , S a o n " G n c h d o u s T r B i e E h o l h o e e d n s e o l n

Chapter Chapter 3

Energy Services in Developing Countries

Contents
Intr oduction and and Summary Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * ................, . . . . . . . . . . . * *, ,*,, Introduction 7 .,.*,.,. . . 4 47 The Residential/Commercial Sector Sector ...* ... *... .**. * *** .*, .., ... ,.. ,. * Q, ** ,+ ** , *** + The Residential/Commercial * * .. .*, * ... Q * * , + * * , * * * F 50 *** *** * * Cooking ... ... ... *.. ... ... ... ... ... ... *.. ... ... ... +.. $*** ***. -..cc**. ** **** 51 ++q4 -,q4 @ @ 4 * * Lighting .. * .*. .. * ** e. *** .**** 55 Lighting . ...*. *.. ... ... ..*. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .** ** + ** + q 4 * * * * .. * ..,.,.. *** ., 58 Spa ce Conditioning, Conditioning, Refrigeration, Refrigeration, and and Other Other Appliances Appliances 58 Space * * e . . ......... 5 1 The Industrial Sector ... ... *... ... ... 62 .** * .. * The Sector . ... .... ... *.. .... ... * ... ** . *. * *.. *. .** * * .* * . 1-4@, *+ .* ** * *a, 62 ** . Industrial * +4@ Process Heat 63 a ,Pr 63 . .ocess .Heat . Me c hani c al Drive ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... * .. ... . . ... *** . * . ** . ** . ** . .. * v * . *** 67 Mechanical Drive * . . . o . * * * * * * * * * * 67 o a . * . * * * Barriers to Efficiency Efficiency Improvements Improvements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 71 Barriers to v * The Traction (Agricultural) (Agricultural) and and Transportation Transportation Sectors Sectors . ....... 72 , * ... The * * ** ,., ** * ** . ** * * .. * ,. 72 * Traction 5 Tra c ti o n and A gri c ulture ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... #. * . * . * . ** .. * . * . . . . 72 Traction and Agriculture * * 72 e + < c + o . Transp ortation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 Transportation 76 *** C onclusion ... ... *... ... ... ** **** @* , 80 80 Conclusion . ... ... ... . ... *.. ... . ... . *..* . . ... . . ,.. *$*** * * , +** ..* * **** * * * * .. - <,* ** * * b be e@ *, 81 A ppendix 3-A: 3-A: Energy Energy Balances Balances fo r Sele cted Developing Developing C ountries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 Appendix for Selected Countries A ppendix 3-B: 3-B: Sources Sources for for Table Table 3-9 3-9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 88 Appendix
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ., * . . . . . . . . * * * . * . . * . . * * . * * *,*.,,...

Page Page

Box
Box
3 A . T h e O n e

Plow

...... .

........*...****.,..*...,..,..

Figures Page Figure P a g e 3-L in Village in Devel Developing Countries 3 -L Per-Capita Per-Capita Energy Energy Use Use in Village Households Households in oping C ountries . . . . . . . 5 . . . . . .0 . . . . 50 3-2. for in Kenya Kenya ... ... 5 ......52 2 3 -2. Choice Choice of of Cooking Cooking Fuel Fuel by by Income Income fo r Five Five Medium-Sized Medium-Sized Towns Towns in 3-3. 3. . . 53 3 -3. Representative Representative Efficiencies Efficiencies and and Direct Direct Capital Capital Costs Costs for for Various Various Stoves Stoves . . . . . . .5. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 3-4. in West 3 -4. Direct Direct Energy Energy Use Use for for Cooking Cooking in West Java, Java, Indonesia Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . .5. . . . . . . . . . .5 3-5. 3 -5. Daily Daily Load Load Profiles Profiles for for Cooking Cooking Energy, Energy, Pondicherry,India, Pondicherry,India, 1980 1980 . . . . . . . . 5 . . . . . . . .5 . . . . . 55 3-6. Output and Various 3 -6. Light Light Output and Efficiency Efficiency of of V arious Lighting Lighting Technoiogies Technoiogies . . . . . . . . . .5. . . . . . . . .6. . . . . . 56 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 3-7. 3 -7. Costs Costs of of Various Various Lighting Lighting Technologies Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 3-8. Installed Ele Electric Lighting Per Per H Household 3 -8. Changes Changes in in Capacity Capacity and and Type Type of of Installed ctric Lighting ousehold . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 . . . . . . . . . . . 58 With India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 W ith Income Income Level Level South South Bombay, Bombay, India 3-9. for Lighting v. v. Household in Brazil Brazil . . . . . . . 5 3 -9. Household Household Electricity Electricity Use Use fo r Lighting Household Income, Income, in . . . . . .9 . . . . 59 3-10. . 60 3 -10. Electric E1ectric Appliance Appliance Ownership Ownership in in Urban Urban Malaysia Malaysia by by Income Income Group, Group, 1980 1980 .. ... .... . .... .....60 3 -11. Electric Electric Appliance Appliance Ownership Ownership in in Urban Urban Java,1988 Java,1988 . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 . . . . . . . . . . . . .0. . . . . . . . . 60 3-11. 3 -12. Refrigerator Refrigerator Ownership Ownership in in Beijing, Beijing, China, China, 1981-87 1981-87 ....,*.,. . . . . . .* . . . . . *. . . . . .* . ...***...6 60 3-12. 0 3 -13. Reduction Reduction in in the the Real Real Cost Cost of frigerators Over 3-13. of Re Refrigerators Over Time Time in in the the United United States States . . . . . .6. . . . .0. . 60 3 -14. Per-Capita Per-Capita Steel Steel Consumption Consumption v. v. GNP GNP for for Various Various Countries Countries . . . . . . . . . .6 . . . . . . . . . .6. . . . . . 66 3-14. ..? . . . . . . . .6. . . . 66 3 -15. Per-Capita Per-Capita Cement Cement Production Production v. GNP fo rV arious Countries Countries ? 3-15. v. GNP for Various , ,.... . . . . . . .6 3 -16. Efficiency Efficiency of of Electric Electric Motors Motors in in the the United United States, States, Brazil, Brazil, and and India . . . . . . .1 . . . . . 71 3-16. India . . . . . . . . 7 3 -17. Energy Energy Losses Losses in in an an Example Example Electric Electric Motor-Driven Motor-Driven Pumping System 3-17. Pumping System in the United . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 United States States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 . . . . . . . . . . . 76 3 -18. Use Use of of Agricultural Agricultural Pumpsets Pumpsets in in India India 1950-90 1950-90 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7. . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 3-18. . . . . . .7 . . . 77 3 -19. Passenger Passenger and and Freight Freight Transport Transport v. GNP for for Selected Selected Countries, Countries, 1%0-81 1%0-81 . . . . . .7 3-19. v. GNP
Tables Tables
P a g e Page Table 3 -1. Total Total Delivered Delivered Energy Energy by by Sector, Sector, in Selected Regions Regions of orld, 1985 1985 ........ 3-1. in Selected of the the W World, 4 .....49 9 3 -2. Delivered Delivered Energy Energy Per Per Capita Sector in Selected Regions, Regions, 1985 1985 . . . . . . . . 4 . . . . . . . .9 . . . . . 49 3-2. Capita by by Sector in Selected 3 -3. Per Per Capita Capita Energy Energy Use Use by by Service Service in Selected Countries Countries . . . . . . . . .+. . . . . . . . +....,,.. 49 3-3. in Selected ... . .4. 9 3 -4. Principal Principal Cooking Cooking Fuels Fuels Used Used by orld P opulation, 1976 1976 . . . . . . . . . 5 . . . . . . . . .1 . . . . . . 51 3-4. by the the W World Population, 3 -5. Typical Typical Air Air P ollution Emissions Emissions From From V arious Cooking Cooking Fuels . . . . . . . . .2. . . . . . 52 3-5. Pollution Various Fuels . . . . . . . . .5 3 -6. Residential Residential Nonheating Nonheating Ele ctricity Intensity Selected C ountries, 1970 1970 and 3-6. Electricity Intensity in in Selected Countries, and 1986 1986 ... _ ...61 61 ............3 . . . . . . . . . . 63 3 -7. Kenyan Kenyan National National Energy Energy Use Use by by Fuel, Fuel, 1980 1980 . . . . . . . . ..,.,...* .6 3-7. 3 -8. Annual Annual Consumption Consumption of of Fuelw ood and and Charcoal Charcoal in Kenya by ottage Industries, 3-8. Fuelwood in Kenya by Rural Rural C Cottage Industries, ((GI/Capita GJ/Capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 3 -9. Efficiency Efficiency of of Fuel Fuel Use Use in in Traditional Traditional (Developing (Developing Countries)andModern Countries)andModern 3-9. ((Industrial Industrial Countries) Countries) Commercial Commercial and and Industrial Industrial Operations Operations . . . . . . . . 6 . . . . . . . . .5.,,..,.*, 65 3 -10 Energy Energy Consumption Consumption by by Chinese Chinese Industry, Industry, 1980 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3-10 6. . .,,,,... . . . . .5. . . . . . . . 65 . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 . . . . . . . . . . 67 3 -11. Average Average Energy Energy Intensities Intensities of of Building Materials . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 3-11. Building Materials 3 -12. Energy Energy Intensities Intensities of of End End Products Products Using Using Alternative Alternative Building Building Materials Materials ... ...6... ......67 3-12. 7 3 -13. Average Average Daily Daily Household Household Consumption Consumption of ater, Gujurat, Gujurat, India India . . . . . . . . .6. . . . . . . 8 . . . . . . 68 3-13. of W Water, 3 -14. Industrial Industrial Electricity Electricity End End Use Use in 1984 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 . . . . . . . . . . . 69 3-14. in Brazil, Brazil, 1984 3 -15. Projected Projected Electricity Electricity Consumption Consumption in in India India by by Sector Sector and and End End Use, Use, 1990 1990...............70 3-15. 7 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..+. 7 74 3 -16. Agricultural Agricultural Indicators Indicators for for Selected Selected Countries Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . + 3-16. 4 3 -17. Passenger Passenger Fleet Fleet Size Size and and Growth Growth in Selected Countries Countries . . . . . . . . . . . 7 . . . . . . . . . . .8 . . . . . . . . 78 3-17. in Selected 3 -18. Energy Energy Efficiency Efficiency of of Trucks Trucks in in Selected Selected Countries Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,. . . . . . . . . . . ...,.*.,. 79 79 3-18. 3 -19. Comparison Comparison of of Rail Systems in in China, China, India, India, and and the the United United States States . . . . . . . . 8 . . . . . . .0 . . . . . 80 3-19. Rail Systems 3 A-1. Brazil: Brazil: Energy Energy Supplies Supplies and and Services, Services, 1987, 1987, Exajoules Exajoules and and Percent Percent of 3A-1. of National Nati onal Total Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 3 A-2. China: China: Energy Energy Supplies Supplies and and Services, Services, 1987, 1987, Exajoules Exajoules and and Percent Percent of 3A-2. of National Nati onal Total Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 3 A-3. India: India: Energy Energy Supplies Supplies and and Services, Services, 1985, 1985, Exajoules Exajoules and and Percent Percent of 3A-3. of National Nati onal Total Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 3 A-4. Kenya: Kenya: Energy Energy Supplies Supplies and and Services, Services, 1980, 1980, Petajoules Petajoules and and Percent Percent of 3A-4. of Nati onal Total Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 National 3 A-5. Taiwan: Taiwan: Energy Energy Supplies Supplies and and Services, Services, 1987, 1987, Petajoules Petajoules and and Percent Percent of 3A-5. of Nati onal Total Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 National 3 A-6. United United States: States: Energy Energy Supplies Supplies and and Services, Services, 1985, 1985, Exajoules Exajoules and cent of 3A-6. and Per Percent of Nati onal Total Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 National . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87

Chapter Chapter 3

Energy Services in Developing Countries

Introduction and Summary
Energy use use in the the worlds worlds developing developing countries countries is increasing n 1960, in creasing rapidly. rapidly. I In 1960, developing developing countries countries consumed co nsumed just just 15 15 percent percent of the worlds worlds commercial commercial f uels; by by 1985, 1985, their their share share had had increased increased to to about about 24 24 fuels; per cent.1 In cluding traditional traditional fuels, fuels, the the developing developing percent.' Including co untry share share of of world world energy energy consumption consumption was was country ab out 28 28 percent percent iin 1986. Developing Developing countries countries about n 1986. might consume as as much much commercial commercial energy energy as as might consume t odays industrial industrial countries countries by by early early iin the next next today's n the c entury. 2Factors Factors driving driving this this rapid rapid increase increase in century. in energy use include include population population growth, growth, economic economic energy use gr owth, and and increasing increasing urbanization urbanization (see (see ch. ch. 2). 2). growth, Even with this this rapid rapid growth, growth, overall overall per-capita per-capita Even with energy consumption rates rates in in developing developing countries countries in in energy consumption 2025 would be be just just one-fifth one-fifth that of the States 2025 would that of the United United States in 1987. 1987. The purpose of of this this chapter chapter is is to to examine examine how how The purpose energy is used used in in developing developing countries. countries. As As explained explained energy is in chapter 1, 1, the the focus focus of of this report is on the ces in chapter this report is on the servi services energy provides rather rather than than the the amount amount of of energy energy energy provides co nsumed. The The reason reason for for this this approach approach is is simple: simple: consumed. energy is not not used used for for its its own own sake, sake, but but rather for the energy is rather for the servi ces it it makes makes possible. possible. For For example, example, wood wood might might services be burned to to cook cook food, food, heat water, warm a house house on on a winter evening, evening, heat heat an an industrial industrial boiler, boiler, or or t o a winter to pr ovide other other services:Similarly, services.3 Similarly, diesel diesel and and gasogasoprovide line are used used primarily primarily to to provide provide transportation transportation line are services. servi ces. There may be be many many different different means means of of pr oviding There may providing a desired desired service, service, each each w with its own own costs costs and and i t h its bene fits. Transportation, Transportation, for for example, example, might might be be benefits. pr ovided by by bicycles, bicycles, motorcycles, motorcycles, cars, cars, buses, buses, light light provided rail, or aircraft. aircraft. The The consumer consumer chooses chooses among among these these rail, or a cco rding t o su c h c riteria as co st, co m fo rt, co nven according to such criteria as cost, comfort, convenien c e, speed, and aestheti c s. W ithin these co nsumer ience, speed, and aesthetics. Within these consumer co nstraints, a a more more efficient efficient car car maybe maybe preferable preferable to to constraints, an in c rease in re f inery c apa c ity in o rder t o redu c e an increase in refinery capacity in order to reduce c apital and/or and/or operating operating costs costs or or because because of of its capital its
environmental n addition envir onmental benefits. benefits. Thus, Thus, iin addition to to engiengineering and economics, neering economics, energy energy analyses analyses should should also also consider co nsider social, social, cultural, cultural, and and institutional institutional factors. factors. Such Su ch factors factors are more more readily included included in a services services conventional fframework ramework than in a co nventional energy supply analysis. analysis.

The ount of consumed in The am amount of energy consumed in the main end end use markets-residential and and commercial, commercial, industry, industry, use markets-residential and transportation-is examined examined first; first; then then the and transportation-is the ma jor services services provided provided by energy are are examined examined major by energy within each sector, within each end-use end-use market. In the household household se ctor, the services examined examined are are cooking,' cooking,4 lighting, space the services lighting, space co nditioning, and and refrigeration; refrigeration; iin industry, process process conditioning, n industry, heat motor drive ; in culture, irrigati on and heat and and motor drive; in agri agriculture, irrigation and tra ction; and, and, finally, finally, transportation. transportation. These These services services traction; are chosen on on the basis of urrent o r likely are chosen the basis of their their c current or likely ffuture uture levels levels of of energy energy consumption consumption o r their social or their social and economic impacts. impacts. and economic W ithin this this services services framework, framework, changes changes i in enWithin n energy use are are traced traced from from traditi onal rural areas t o ergy use traditional rural areas to their modern urban urban counterparts. counterparts. The The progression progression their modern from traditional to modern f rom the traditi onal rural t o the m odern urban illuminates well the wide range of te c hn ologies n ow iluminates well the wide range of technologies now being used in developing co untries and being used in the the developing countries and the the dynami cs of ow energy an be cted t o dynamics of h how energy use use c can be expe expected to c hange in the future. future. change in the Energy use in onal rural flects a Energy use in traditi traditional rural villages villages re reflects a much of co considerations from of the the mu ch different different set set of nsiderations f rom that of m odern urban urban economy. economy. First, First, traditional traditional energy modern energy use use is part of of a complex and and interdependent interdependent biological biological is part a complex system, rather than than being being based based on on fossil fossil fuels. fuels. The The system, rather bi omass that is used used fo rf uel is biomass that is for fuel is part part of of a a system system that that pr ovides food food for for humans, humans, fodder fodder fo r animals, animals, provides for co nstruction materials, materials, fiber fiber fo r ropes, ropes, and and even even construction for traditi onal medicines. medicines. Similarly, Similarly, the ock that traditional the bull bullock that pulls a plow plow also also provides provides milk, meat, leather, leather, and pulls a milk, meat, and dung rf ertilizer o rf uel. dung fo for fertilizer or fuel. Se cond, people people in in traditional traditional economies economies carefully carefully Second, assess their c h o i c es and make co mplex trade offs assess their choices and make complex tradeoffs

din Developing IJayant Sathaye, Andre Andre Ghirardi, and and Lee Lee Schipper, "Energy Demandin Developing Countries: Countries: A A Sectoral Analysis Analysis of of Recent Recent Trends, Trends," Annual vol. 12, 12, 1987, 1987, p. p. 253. 253. Review of of Energy, Energy, vol. Environmental Protection Agency, Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate, vol. 2, February 1989, p. VII-30. Rapidly 2 World Scenario. U Scenario.
. 3 some cases, particularly the S I 4 . n however, explicitly however, explicitly considered considered here. here. W E s a n o t v m e ie r

countries, wood might be burned in a to

simply for aesthetic reasons. of the

It

-47 -47

48 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries Countries

between the numerous numerous pressures pressures they face face in day-today-today survival, survival, at a level seldom seldom seen in the modern modern economy. t e conomy. Gathering Gathering fuel, fuel, for for example, example, is is not not free: free: iit costs co sts time time and and personal personal energy energy that must be be balanced balanced other that o one faces, against all the o ther demands that ne f aces, particularly parti cularly during the agricultural agricultural season season when labor lab or demand demand is is at its peak. peak. There There are are also also complex complex tradeoffs n gaining trade offs involved involved iin gaining access access tto o fuels fuels o n common co mmon lands lands or or on on privately privately owned owned land. Third, although although people people in rural areas may use energy inefficiently inefficiently in comparison comparison to to what is possipossible with with modern modern commercial commercial technologies, technologies, they they use use energy rather rather efficiently efficiently and and wisely wisely given given the the co nstraints on on their their resources, resources, technology, technology, and and constraints c apitals They They have have little little choice choice in in this this if if they they are are to to capitals survive on their their meager meager resources. resources. Rather Rather than than survive on maximizing production, as as is is done done in odern maximizing production, in m modern industrial society, traditional traditional peoples peoples focus focus on on industrial society, minimizing risk in in the the face face of of the the vagaries vagaries of of dr ought minimizing risk drought and other and other natural natural disasters. disasters. The efficiency and and productivity productivity of of traditi onal The efficiency traditional energy te c hn o l o gies in devel o ping co untries c an be energy technologies in developing countries can be signi f i c antly impr o ved. T o d o s o e ff e c tively, h o w significantly improved. To do so effectively, however, will require an understanding of the co mplex ever, will require an understanding of the complex linkages of village village life. life. IIn general, village village populapopulalinkages of n general, ti o ns o perate rati o nally within their f ramew ork;6 tions operate rationally within their framework;' c hange then then requires requires that that the the framework framework be be changed changed change thr o ugh the intr o du c ti o n of external inputs through the introduction of external inputs f inan c ial, managerial, material, and te c hni c al. The financial, managerial, material, and technical. The la ck of of success success of of many many development development programs programs can can lack be attributed in part t o a f ailure t o re co gnize be attributed in part to a failure to recognize the the rati onality of of rural rural lifestyles lifestyles and and the the need need to to address address rationality the overall framework framework in in which which villagers villagers operate. operate. the overall F or the the developing developing countries countries as as a a whole, whole, the the For residential/commercial residential /commercial and and industrial industrial sectors sectors consticonstitute the largest largest end end use use energy energy markets, markets, together together tute the a ccounting for for 85 85 percent percent of of the the energy energy used used by by final final accounting consumers co nsumers when traditional traditional fuels fuels are included. included. Transp ortation accounts accounts for for the the remaining remaining 15 15 perperTransportation c ent. There There are, are, however, however, considerable considerable differences differences cent. am ong developing developing nations:The nations.7 The residential/comresidential/comamong

mercial for particularly high share share mer cial sector sector accounts accounts fo r a parti cularly high of energy use in African countries (mostly of African co untries ( mostly in the form biomass for industrys fo rm of bi omass fuels fuels fo r cooking), cooking), while industry s share is quite low. share low. Transportation Transportation accounts accounts for for an exceptionally the t total in Latin Latin ex ceptionally high share of the otal in America, share in in India and and China China is is llow. A merica, whereas its share ow. Tables 3-1,3-2, sectoral and energy energy Tables 3-1,3-2, and 3-3 3-3 provide provide se ctoral and service countries; servi ce breakdowns breakdowns for for the developing developing co untries; figure in rural rural f igure 3-1 3-1 shows shows per-capita per-capita energy use in households h ouseholds as determined by village surveys in Africa, Af rica, Asia, Asia, and Latin America. America. Residential cookcooking process heat account account fo r almost almost ing and industrial process for tw o-thirds of of all the the energy energy used used in the developing developing two-thirds w orld. About About 40 40 percent percent of energy consumed consumed in world. of all energy pr oviding these these services services in developing developing countries, countries, o r providing or well over a otal energy nsumed in well over a quarter quarter of of the the t total energy co consumed in devel oping co untries, is developing countries, is used used in in India India and and China. China.

C ooking is Cooking is the the single single largest largest energy energy use use in in many many devel oping countries. countries. There There is is a well-established developing a well-established transiti on iin cooking fuels fuels associated associated with with higher higher transition n cooking in comes, improved improved supply supply availability, availability, and and urbani incomes, urbanizati on. In areas, and and in oor urban ouseholds, zation. In rural rural areas, in p poor urban h households, traditi onal fuels fuels (wood, (wood, crop crop wastes, wastes, and and dung) dung) are traditional are used simple stoves. stoves. In ore a ffluent h ouseholds, used in in simple In m more affluent households, pe ople switch switch to to modern modern stoves stoves and and clean, clean, convenconvenpeople ient fuels such such as as kerosene, kerosene, Liquefied Liquefied Petroleum Petroleum ient fuels Gases (LPG), and and electricity. electricity. Because Because wood wood stoves stoves Gases (LPG), are relatively inefficient, inefficient, households households that keroare relatively that use use kerosene or LPG LPG can can consume consume signi ficantly less less energy energy sene or significantly fo r cooking cooking than those using wood and charcoal. for than those using wood and charcoal. Lighting technologies follow follow a technologLighting technologies a similar similar technologiical cal progression, progression, from from candles candles o r light rom w ood or light f from wood ffrees rees in some some rural areas, to to kerosene kerosene and butane butane lamps, to electricity, electricity, which which is prized energy energy lamps, to is a a highly highly prized servi ce. Electricity Electricity use use fo r lighting service. for lighting rises rises rapidly rapidly with with household h ousehold income. income. Relatively little energy energy is is used used for for residential residential Relatively little spa ce cooling cooling in oping co untries. Space Space coo lspace in devel developing countries. cooling is becoming becoming significant significant in commercial and ing is i n commercial and g overnment buildings, however, and energy use r government buildings, however, and energy use fo for spa ce cooling cooling is is likely likely to to grow grow rapidly rapidly in future. space in the the future.

on this this topic Notable examples of of studies studies on topic include: include: N.H. Ravindranatb et et al- An Indian Village Agricultural Ecosystem-Case Study of Village, Main Biomass, vol. 1, 1, Village, Part I: Main Observations,"Biomass, 1, No. No , September September 1981, 1981, pp. pp. 61-76; 61-76; Amulya Kumar N. N. Reddy, Reddy, An "An Indian Indian Village Village Agricultural Agricultural , " Part A n I: I n Observations, d i a n V i l vol. l a g 1 e pp. Study Village, Discussion Biomass, vol. EcosystemCase Study of Part II: I I : Discussion" vol. 1, 1, No. No. 1, 1, September September 1981, 1981, p p . 77-88; 77-88; M.D. Coughenour et et al., al., A g r i ec u of l Ungra t u Village, r a l Part EnergyExtraction and Use a Nomadic Nomadic Pastoral 4726, Nov. "EnergyExtraction in ta Science, vol. vol. 230, 230, No. No. 4726, Nov. 8, 8, 1985, 1985, pp. pp. 619-625. 619-625. E c o s and y Use s in e m Pastoral C Ecosystem," a s e Science,
S t u d y 6 o f level is fairly similar in both quantity and source (biomass), and in application (cooking, subsistence agriculture) throughout 1 at the village 7 U n use by the g r a b the world. the E world. Energy Energy use by the economically economically well well off off is is also also reasonably similar similar throughout throughout the the industrial industrial countries countries as as well well as as among among the the urban urban elite elite in in i developing countries. The The large large differences differences in in energy energy use use between between countries n developing countries. countries are are due due primarily primarily to to the the relative relative numbers numbers of of villagers villagers and and economically well well d the form form and and quantity quantity of off off in of energy energy use use by by those those who who are are making making the the transition transition between between these these two two extremes; extremes; and and the the development development path path e the population; the . followed. being being r followed. g y u s

Chapter 3--Energy Services in Developing Developing Countries 4 9 Chapter 49

Table 3-I-Total 3-lTotal Delivered Delivered Energy by Sector, in Selected Regions of the World, 1985 (Exajoules)
Residential/commercial I n d u s t r y T r a n s p o r t T o t a Total l Residential/commercial Industry Transport Commercial Traditional m m e r c i a l Traditional Commercial Traditional Commercial Commercial Traditional Traditional Commercial Commercial Traditional Traditional C oCommercial Traditional Total Total a fuels' fuels fuels fuelsa fuels f u efuels l sa fuels fuels a fuels fuels fuels energy energy fuels fuels fuels fuels 4.0 4.0 2.6 2.6 4.7 4.7 3.2 2.0 2.0 4.1 4.1 13.0 13.0 4.0 4.0 16.4 16.4 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.5 1.5 3.8 3.8 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 18.6 18.6

Region Africa 10 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 Latin America 23 Latin America . . . . . . . 2.3 India and 73 India and China China . . . . . 7.3 19 Other Asia Asia . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 16.8 United States . . . . . . . 16.8 -Not available or not applicable.

4.4 4.4 10.1 10.1 22.2 22.2 7.8 7.8 51.8 51.8

4.1 4.1 3.4 3.4 4.8 4.8 3.6 3.6

8.5 8.5 13.5 13.5 27.1 27.1 11.3 11.3 51.8 51.8

a these estimates estimates of of traditional traditional fuels fuels are are lower lower than than those those generally generally observed observed in field studies. studies. See See figure figure 3-1, 3-1, app. app. 3-A, 3-A, and and ch. 4. a these N b this is is delivered delivered energy energy and and does does not not include include conversion conversion losses. losses. b this o 18 Joules) equals 0.9478 Quads. The residential and commercial sector also includes others (e.g., public services, etc.) that do not fit NOTES: 1 1 exajoule exajoule (10 (10 t in industry or transport. Traditional fuels fuels such as wood are included under commercial fuels for for the the United United States. States. These These figures figures do do not not include include 2 a conversion losses (from (from fuel fuel to to electricity, electricity, in refineries, refineries, etc). etc). losses Joules ) v SOURCE: International Energy Agency Agency (IE/1), (lE/l), World Energy Statistics and Energy and Balances 1971-1987 1971-1987 (Paris: (Paris: OECD, 1989); 1989); lEA, Energy Balances of OECD e q u a International l s a Countries 1987); and lEA, Energy (Paris: OECD, 1984). Countries 1970-1985 (Pads: OECD,1987); Energy Balances of of Developing Developing Counties Counties 1971-1982 1971-1982 (Paris: 1984). i0 . 9 4 7 8 l Q u a d a s . b h 3-2-Delivered Energy Per Capita by Sector in in Selected Regions, 1985 Table 3-2Delivered lT e (gigajoules) (Includes traditional traditionalfuels) (gigajoules) fuels) e r e s i d o e n t i a r Residential/commercial Total Region Residential/commercial Total Industry Transport Industry Transport l n a 11.8 5.2 3.5 20.5 Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.8 5.2 3.5 20.5 o 12.5 Latin America . . . . . . . . . . 12.7 9.7 34.9 12.5 Latin 12.7 9.7 34.9 tn d India and China . . . . . . . . 7.3 15.1 6.7 1.1 7.3 15.1 6.7 1.1 a c o m 7.2 6.2 2.7 16.1 Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 6.2 2.7 16.1 p United States . . . . . . . . . . m e r 69.8 68.5 77.5 215.8 United 69.8 68.5 77.5 215.8 p i a lc NOTE: These estimates do not include conversion losses in the energy NOTE: These energy sector sector and underestimate underestimate the quantity quantity of of traditional fuels fuels used used compared compared to that observed in field studies. studies. See See app. 3-A 3-A for better better estimates il estimates of of traditional traditional s e fuel use use and and for for sectoral sectoral energy energy use including conversion conversion losses. c c t a SOURCE: Derived from table 3-1. SOURCE: o r b la l e Table 3-3-Per Capita Energy Use by Service in Selected Countries (Gigajoules) .s o i n Brazil India China Brazil Taiwan India U.S.A. China c l Kenya Taiwan U.S.A. Kenya u d 6.2 11.7 Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 16.9 6.2 11.7 8.9 64.9 5.5 16.9 8.9 64.9 e s cooking ................... 8.5 5.0 16.4 4.7 5.3 3.5 8.5 5.0 16.4 4.7 3.5 o lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 t a 0.6 appliances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.05 13.0' 3.1 0.05 13.0 3.1 h 1.5 0.7 Commercial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.26 1.5 0.7 0.4 4.2 0.26 45.2 0.4 4.2 45.2 e 0.4 0.13 0.24 1.9 0.13 0.24 1.9 r cooling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.05 0.05 0.16 0.8 7.2 0.16 0.8 7.2 s . 0.07 0.6 1.5 0.07 1.5 ( appliances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Industrial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.4 e 19.4 13.8 4.1 4.8 13.8 4.1 4.8 39.2 39.2 94.1 94.1 _ 17.5 10.2 . process heat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.5 10.2 2.7 2.7 55.8 55.8 drive . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . g motor drive 1.6 1.6 3.6 1.3 3.6 1.3 20.4 20.4 . lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.05 0.05 ,Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.3 13.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 2.7 11.5 2.7 11.5 80.8 80.8 Transport p road . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.0 12.0 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.8 0.8 1.8 10.1 10.1 66.7 66.7 u rail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 2.0 0.1 2.0 b air . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 11.3 0.7 11.3 l Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 1.8 1.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 2.6 0.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 i Agriculture 43.4 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.0 27.0 11.7 11.7 25.6 25.6 c 67.7 288.0 67.7 288.0 s e Not available available or not not applicable. applicable. - Not or ra This is the thevcombined combined total total for for applicances applicances and and lighting. lighting. This is These estimates include include the conversion losses i NOTE: c estimates NOTE: These the upstream upstream conversion losses in in the the energy energy sector, sector, such such as as the the loss loss in in going going from from fuel fuel to to electricity electricity or or crude crude to to refined refined petroleum products. This This in in in in contrast contrast to to tables tables 3-1 3-1 and and 3-2 3-2 where where energy energy sector sector conversion conversion losses not included. included. petroleum products. losses were were not e s Adapted from from app. app. 3-A, 3-A, tables tables 1 1 through through 6. 6. ,SOURCE: SOURCE: Adapted e t c .

50 Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries Countries

Figure 3-IPer-Capita 3-lPer-Capita Energy Energy Use in Village Households in Households in Developing Developing Countries Countries
Per-capita energy s e , GJ/year Per-capita energy u use, GJ/year 35 3 5 ~ - - - 30 3 025 2 520 2 015 15 10 10 5 5 oI o -

Much n developing Mu ch of the population population iin developing countries countries depend for work depend for their mechanical mechanical w ork in both both industry and agriculture and agriculture on on human human or or animal muscle, muscle, with outputs seriously llow ow efficiencies efficiencies and power power o utputs that seri ously limit productivity. of m modern limit productivity. The efficiencies efficiencies of odern diesel diesel and electric lower in devel develand electric motors motors are significantly significantly l ower in oping countries than in the industrialized countries oping countries countries as well. as well. As in o other sectors, transition in A s in ther se ctors, there is a transiti on in transportation transp ortation technologies. technologies. Walking Walking and use of domesticated d omesticated animals animals are are the dominant dominant transport transport technologies poorer next step step te chnologies in p oorer and rural areas. The The next up is bicycles, up bicycles, and then the internal combustion combustion engine. Transport services services in the developing developing w orld, engine. Transport world, as orld, are based largely o n as in the industrial w world, on highways. In the developing developing countries, countries, however, however, highways. I n the ffreight reight rather rather than passenger passenger traffic traffic is is the the m ost most imp ortant transport transport activity activity iin terms o off energy energy important n terms co nsumption. consumption.

IllIll

This figure figure shows shows per-capita per-capita use use of biomass biomass fuels fuels as found in household energy energy surveys surveys in in Asia, Asia, Africa, Africa, and and Latin Latin America. America. The observed energy energy use use depends depends on on such such factors factors as fuel availability, availability, climate, diet, income, and other factors. The generally higher higher levels of energy use use in Africa Africa and Latin America reflect, in large part, the the greater availability and accessibility of wood and other biomass fuels. fuels. The The sporadic peaks in energy use shown in the figure are typically typically for villages in colder, colder, more more mountainous regions.
SOURCES: D.O. Hall, G.W. Barnard, and PA. Moss, Biomass for for Energy in the Developing Countries (Oxford: (Oxford: Pergamon Press, Press,1982, pp. 212; World Bank, Bolivia: "Bolivia: Issues and Options in the Energy Sector, Sector," UNDP/WB Energy Sector Assessment Program, Rpt. 4213-60, April April 1983; J.S. Singh, U. Pandey, and A.K.Tiwari, Man "Man and Forests: A Central Himalayan Case No. 2, 2, 1984, 1984, pp. 80-87; 80-87; issoufou Study, Study," AMBIO,vol. 12, No. Boureima and Gilles De Chambre, Rapport Rapport sur l'Evaluation du Programme Foyers Foyers Amellores (Niamey, Niger: Niger: Association des Femmes du Niger and Church World Service, November 1982). 1982).

Ii

Illldllll
Asia

Africa Africa

Latin America

The Residential/Commercial Sector Sector' The

8

A lso, electric electric appliances appliances are are quickly quickly penetrating penetrating the the Also, residential sector. Many Many of of these these air conditioners and and residential sector. air conditioners applian ces, notably notably refrigerators, refrigerators, have have low low efficienefficienappliances, c ies. These These end end uses uses are are having having strong strong impacts impacts on on the cies. the ele ctric power power infrastructure. infrastructure. electric Many commercial and and industrial industrial processes processes rereMany commercial quire process heat, heat, ranging ranging from from the the low-temlow-temquire process perature heat provided provided by by biomass biomass used used to to dry dry food food perature heat in cottage industries industries to to the the high-temperature high-temperature procprocin cottage esses used iin the large-scale large-scale steel steel and and cement cement esses used n the industries. With some some exceptions, exceptions, the the efficiencies efficiencies of of industries. With these processes are are typically typically much much lower lower than than those those these processes found n industrialized fo und iin industrialized countries. countries.
8

Energy use in the residential/commercial residential/commercial sector sector of Energy use in the of devel oping countries countries typically typically accounts accounts for for about about 30 30 developing per cent of mmercial energy energy use use and o-thirds o r percent of co commercial and tw two-thirds or m ore of onal f uel use use (see (see app. app. 3-A). 3-A). Cooking Cooking more of traditi traditional fuel is by f ar the the largest use of uel in ; in is by far largest use of ffuel in rural rural areas areas; in urban urban and more developed developed areas, areas, lighting lighting and appliances and more and appliances ((refrigerators refrigerators and and electric electric f ans, fo r example ) are o fans, for example) are als also large users. A nditioning is o large energy energy users. A ir i r co conditioning is likely likely t to be come important important in the future future in residences and and is become in the in residences is already widely used used in commercial, instituti onal, already widely in commercial, institutional, and government buildings buildings in developing countries. countries. and government in developing The efficiency of ost co mThe average average energy energy efficiency of the the m most comm on cooking, cooking, lighting, lighting, and and appliance appliance technologies technologies mon in use in oping co untries t oday c an be in use in devel developing countries today can be im impr oved dramatically,'but dramatically,9 but usually ficant proved usually at at a a signi significant additi onal capital capital cost cost to to the the consumer. consumer. NevertheNevertheadditional less, the advantages advantages of ore m odern te chnolless, the of these these m more modern technolo gies--convenience, comfort, comfort, effectiveness-are effectiveness-are ininogies--convenience, c entive enough enough for for consumers consumers to to make make the the investinvestcentive ment where the the technologies technologies and and the the necessary necessary f uel ment where fuel supplies are available, available, affordable,' affordable,10 and reasonably supplies are and reasonably reliable. reliable.

analysis, the

sector includes other energy uses such as public buildings not included in the industrial and transportation

sectors. I
n be accomplished accomplished by This can can be by changing changing both both the the mix mix of of technology technology (e.g., (e.g., shifting shifting users users from from low-efficiency wood wood stoves stoves to to high-efficiency high-efficiency LPG LPG t stoves) and by stoves) and by improving improving the the individual individual technologies technologies themselves themselves (e.g., (e.g., moving moving toward toward higher highelefficiency refrigerators). refrigerators). h loA i ppr s a opr n i a

ate

Chapter 3--Energy Services Developing Countries Countries 4,51 Chapter Services in Developing 51

Table 3-4-Principal Cooking Fuels Used by the World Population, 1976

Percent of people using fuel Percent people using Fossil Dung and Fossil Dung and a File!wood Fuelwood crop waste crop waste energy energy' 10 63 27 10 63 27 47 43 10 47 43 10 12 42 46 12 42 46 4 1 36 23 41 23 36 22 5 1 27 22 51 27 17 30 53 17 30 53 7 1 26 3 71 26 3 0 0 100 0 100 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 0 100 0 100 0 47 20 33 47 33 20

Region Region Africa South Sahara . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Africa South of of Sahara India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rest of South Asia Rest Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . East East Asia, developing Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Asia centrally planned economies . . . . . . . . . . . . . Middle East, North Africa Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Latin America and Caribbean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Latin North America, America, OECD OECD Pacific Pacific. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Western Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Europe, Europe, centrally planned economies . . . . . . . . . . Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . a Includes electric cooking. a Includes

SOURCE: Adapted ffrom David Hughart, Hughart, Prospects Prospects f o r Traditional and SOURCE: Adapted r o m David and Non-Conventional Energy Sources in Developing Developing Countries, World Bank staff working paper No. 346,132 346,132 pp., July July 1979. 1979.

Cooking Cooking'

ll

The most important important single single energy energy service service in many The most in many devel oping countries countries is is cooking. cooking. I In areas of of developing n rural rural areas devel oping countries, countries, traditional traditional fuels--wood, fuels--wood, crop crop developing wastes, and dung-are dung-are used used for for cooking; cooking; iin many wastes, and n many of urban areas, areas, charcoal charcoal is also also used. used. More More than half half of the worlds people people depend depend on on these these crude crude fuels fuels for for the worlds their cooking and and other other energy energy needs needs (see (see table table their cooking 3 -4). 12 Higher incomes and reliable fuel supplies 3-4). enable people to to switch switch to to modern modern stoves stoves and and clean clean enable people 12 f uels su c h as ker o sene, LPG, and ele c tri c ity. fuels such as kerosene, LPG, and electricity. H i
g h Traditional Traditi onal Fuels Fuels

h ousehold income income is is spent spent fo r them them in poor urban urban household for in poor areas (see ch. ch. 2). 2). Cooking Cooking with traditional fuels fuels is areas (see with traditional is awkward and time-consuming. time-consuming. Unlike Unlike modern modern gas gas awkward and or electric use traditi traditional biomass o r ele ctric stoves, stoves, stoves stoves that use onal bi omass ffuels uels must must be be constantly constantly tended tended t o maintain maintain an to an adequate lame. This This demands demands a adequate f flame. a large large share share of of w omens time time iin developing countries-averaging countries-averaging women's n developing 13 perhaps 3 to to 5 hours per and interferes interferes with perhaps 3 5 hours per day day''and with other activities. other activities. C ooking with onal f uels is o usually Cooking with traditi traditional fuels is als also usually unpleasant o the ount of unpleasant and and unhealthy unhealthy due due t to the large large am amount of n oxious smoke smoke emitted emitted (see (see table 3-5). MeasureMeasurenoxious table 3-5). ments of ind oor concentrations concentrations in homes in developments of indoor in homes in developing countries have have found found levels levels of arbon monoxide, monoxide, ing countries of c carbon parti culate, and and hydrocarbons hydrocarbons 10 10 t o 100 100 times particulate, to times higher World Health Organization standards. higher than than World Health Organization standards. C ooks can can be be exposed exposed t o as as mu ch o rm ore carbon carbon Cooks to much or more m o n o xide, fo rmaldehyde, benz o( a ) pyrene, and other monoxide, formaldehyde, benzo(a)pyrene, and other 14 t o xins and c ar c in o gens as heavy c igarette sm o kers. toxins and carcinogens as heavy cigarette smokers.' Sm oke from from cooking cooking stoves stoves is is therefore therefore thought thought t o Smoke to be a significant significant factor factor in -health in developing be a in ill ill-health in developing

e r Traditional fuels are predominant in rural areas i Traditional fuels are predominant in rural areas be cause they they can can be be gathered gathered at no financial financial cost cost and because at no and n used in very very simple simple stovesas stovesas simple simple as as an open used in an open c f ree. At At the the national national level, level, the the use use of of biomass biomass for for f uel free. fuel o ces expensive redu expensive energy energy imports. imports. These These are are subsubreduces m benefits. stantial benefits. e Use of traditi traditional onal fuels fuels also also exacts exacts substantial s co sts. Large Large amounts amounts of of labor labor are are expended expended to to gather gather costs. a these fuels in in rural rural areas, areas, and and a a significant significant portion portion of these fuels of n d r e l here focuses on household cooking, the same considerations apply to commercial 11 i for and water for are implicitly included the discussion here, the I A l same often the same for often for the the lower lower and and middle middle income income groups groups in in developing developing countries, countries, and and separation separation of of energy energy use use for for these these purposes purposes is klifficult. 2 the a th Morse H Development Planning, M. Richard Morse, Morse et al., "Organi7ing Current Information for Rural Energy and Development Planning," M. Nurul Islam, Richard Morse, and M. Hadi b 13Riehard o e Rural Energy Energy to to MeelDevelopment MeetDevelopment Needs: Asian Asian Village Village Approaches Approaches (Boulder, (Boulder, CO: Soesastro (eds.), Rural CO: Westview Westview Press, Press, 1984), 1984), table table 7, 7, p. p. 498. 498. u l a Global Review 1 4 K i R. g t e r h i t f k n R . h g u S

52 Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries

Table 3-5-Typical Air Air Pollution Emissions From Various Cooking Fuels
Efficiency Efficiency (percent)
a Grams Grams per gigajoule of of delivered delivered energy energy'

Fuel Fuel
Wood (tropical) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cow dung (Hawaiian) . . . . . . . . . Coal (Indian) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Coconut husk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Natural gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

ISP TSP 3,800 3,800 10,000 10,000 280 280 17,000 17,000 0.7 0.7

15 15 15 15 20 15 15 60

s o ,, s 250 250 3,200 3,200 2,200 2,200

Nipx NO x 300 300 . 460 460 13 13

HC HC

GO GO 34,000 34,000 44,000 44,000 27,000 27,000 54,000 54,000 330 330

3,200 3,200 2,200 2,200

7
6 7

Not available or not applicable. a SO2, sulfur dioxide; dioxide; NO, NOX, nitrogen oxides; HC, HC, hydrocarbons; CO, CO, carbon carbon monoxide. monoxide. a TSP, total Suspended particulates; 80 SOURCE: Adapted Adapted from Kirk R. Smith, Biomass Fuels, Air Air Pollution, and and Health: A Global Review Review (New (New York, York, NY: NY: Plenum Plenum Press, Press, 1987). 1987).

co untries. The The diseases diseases implicated implicated include include severe severe countries. eye irritation, respiratory respiratory diseases, diseases, and and cancer.' cancer.15 eye irritation, Finally, although the the expansion expansion of of agri cultural Finally, although agricultural and grazing lands lands and and commercial commercial logging logging are are the the and grazing m ost important important causes causes of of deforestation deforestation globally, globally, the the most use of wood wood for for fuel fuel may may also also contribute contribute to to deforestdeforestuse of ati on in in some some local local areas, areas, particularly particularly where where the the ation p opulation density density is is high high and and the climate is such population the climate is dry dry such as the West West African African Sahel (see (see ch. ch. 5). 5).
The Transition Transition to to Modern Modern Stoves Stoves and Clean Fuels Fuels

Figure 3-2-Choice of Cooking Fuel by Income Income for Five Five Figure Medium-Sized Towns in Kenya Medium-Sized Kenya
Percent o f income Percent of income group group using fuel 100 r r 100 80, 80,
1

>

i
60 60

.-

-
\

40 40
[

/ .

20 20
o

r L

Low Low

Middle Middle Income group Income group + C + Ch ha arrc co oa a ll

-

High High

Pe ople are are generally generally observed observed to to make make the the transitransiPeople tion ti on to to modern, modern, efficient efficient stoves stoves and and clean clean fuels fuels as as s oo n as they are available and a ffo rdable ( see f igure soon as they are available and affordable (see figure 3 22 ). 16 technologies are preferred for their 3-) These , co nvenien c e, comfort, cleanliness, cleanliness, ease ease of of operaoperaconvenience, comfort, I ti o n, speed, and o ther attributes. tion, and other attributes. ' T h speed, e

-- -- Wood Wood
+

+ K Ke erro os se en ne

Gas * Gas

c t ir i t c iy ty E l e c t rE l i ec

Many Many households households use more than one fuel fuel depending on on the the particular particular food cooked and the supply and and cost cost of of fuel. fuel. Note Note the the shift charcoal and shift in fuel choice choice from from wood wood to charcoal and kerosene, kerosene, and and then then from from charcoal and kerosene kerosene to to gas gas and and electricity. electricity.
SOURCE: SOURCE: John Soussan, Fuel "Fuel Transitions Transitions Within Within Households, Households," DiscusDiscussion paper N No. 35, Walter Walter Elkan et sion paper o . 35, et al. al. (eds.), Transitions Between Between Traditional and Commercial Energy Energy in in the the Third Third World (Guildford, Surrey, Surrey, United Kingdom: Surrey Surrey Energy Energy Economics Economics Center, University of Surrey, January 1987). Center, University of Surrey, January 1987).

se There is a a natural natural progression progression in in efficiency, efficiency, cost, cost, There is t e performance c and performance as as consumers consumers shift shift from from wood wood and st on ves tto o charcoal, charcoal, kerosene, kerosene, LPG LPG o or gas, and and h stoves r gas, A lthough c ultural f actors may ole in hoices Although cultural factors may play play a ar role in c choices ele stoves (see (see figure figure 3-3). 3-3). Improved Improved wood wood and and electric o c l tri o c stoves of st o ves o r f uels, it is hardly a d o minant o ne, of stoves or fuels, i t is hardly a dominant one, as as c stoves have have also also begun begun to to fill fill a a potentially potentially charcoal ghar i co e al stoves eviden ced by by the wide variety of st oves and f uels evidenced the wide variety of stoves and fuels imp niche between between traditional traditional wood wood or or charcharimportant s ortant niche that already been been adopted adopted across across the ull range that have have already the f full range co al st o ves and m o dern ker o sene o r gas st o ves. coal stoves and modern kerosene or gas stoves. a of c lass, c ultural, and in co me gr o ups in devel oping of class, cultural, and income groups in developing r Cultural factors factors are often often cited cited as a barrier to to the co untries. More More typically, typically, the the reason reason that that various various countries. ad option o of improved biomass biomass stoves stoves and and fuels. fuels. st oves have have not not been been adopted adopted by by targeted targeted groups groups in e adoption f improved stoves in p exposure to the limited limited data data available available linking human exposure to the the smoke smoke from from wood wood fires to to lung lung cancer cancer is is still still ambiguous ambiguous (but (but may may indicate indicate r "Although the anomalously low cancer cancer rates), rates), there there is is now now evidence evidence of anomalously low of excess excess lung lung cancer cancer among among cooks cooks using using certain certain types types of of coal coal in China. China. Overall, Overall, the tile World World Health Health e Organization now cites respiratory disease all causes as the leading cause of mortality in developing countries. See Kirk R. PAHand Organization now cites respiratory disease from all causes as the leading cause of mortality in developing countries. See K i r k RSmith, "PAHand the tile Household Household Cook Cook in in Developing Developing Countries: Countries: The The Lung Lung Cancer Cancer Anomaly, Anomaly," paper paper presented presented at at the tile Symposium Symposium on olPolynuclear Aromatic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Hydrocarbons f 1984, to in the Workplace, in the Workplace, International Chemical Chemical Congress Congress of of Pacific Basin Basin Societies, Societies, Honolulu, Honolulu, HI, HI, December December 1984, to be be published published in in M. M. Cooke Cooke and and A l e Dennis Hydrocarbons: Formation, Formation, Metabolism Metabolism and and Measurement Measurement (Columbus, Dennis (edS.),Polynuclear Aromatic Hydrocarbons: ((olumbus, OH: OH: Batelle Press); Press); J.L. Mumford Mumford et et al., al., 235, Jan. Lung "Lung Cancer Cancer and and Indoor Indoor Air A i r Pollution Pollutionin Xuan Wei, Wei, China," Science, Science, vol. vol.235, Jan. 9, 9, 1987, 1987, pp. pp. 217-220; 217-220; H.W. de de Koning, Koning,K.R. Smith,and and L K Last, r Biomass Fuel Combustion Combustion and and Health," Bulletin Organization (EFP/84.64). "Biomass Fuel Bulletin of of the the World World Health Organization r not yet Factors that affect ' T h i s transition is complex and not yet well understood. Factors that affect a household's shift shift to to modern modern stoves stoves andfuels fuels include include household householdincome e and fuel-producing assets assets (land, and fuel-producing (land, trees, trees, animals, animals, etc.); etc.); reliability reliability of of access access to to modem modefuels; relative relative cost cost of of traditional traditional and and modern modern fuels fuels and and stoves; stoves; level level of of education education of of the the head head of of household; household; cooking cooking habits; habits; division division of of labor labor and and control control of cfmances within within the the household; household; and and the tile relative relative performance performance of of d the stoves and fuels available. f o r t

Chapter 3--Energy Services Chapter Services in Developing Developing Countries 4,53 53

Figure 3-3-Representative Efficiencies and Direct Capital Costs for Various Stoves Figure cost (/e) C a p i t a l _ c Capital o t ($) Stove efficiency r s . (%)
70 7 0 8 0
80

60 50 40
I / / ,/

60 6 0

40 0 I 4

30 30 20 20

Stove efficiency

20 2 0 Stove capital c o s t

10 10
0 I1 Agricultural Agricultural waste i n waste in traditional traditional tovea tovea
I Traditional Traditional charcoal charcoal stoves stoves

Improved Improved charcoal charcoal stoves stoves

I Kerosene Kerosene pressure pressure stoves stoves LPG G stoves s

0 o Electric Electric hot ho pplate late

Improved Kerosene i o n a l I m p r o v e d K e r o s e n e Animal T r a d i t Tradition al k d dung In In w o o wood d W O O WOO d s t W i co v traditional s t o v stoves e s s t o v e s I s t o v e s stoves stoves tovea tovea The T h e range

P e

of performance both in the laboratory and in the field is much larger than that suggested by this figure and is affected by such factors as the size of the stove and pot, the the climate climate (wind), (wind), the the quality quality of the fuel used, the care with which the stove is operated, the type of cooking done, done, and many many other other factors. The The type of material that the pot is made of is also a significant factor: aluminum aluminum pots pots are are almost almost twice as as efficient efficient as as traditional traditional clay clay pots pots due to their better better conduction of heat. Although Although the efficiency efficiency of improved charcoal stoves is shown as slightly higher higher than improved wood stoves-the stoves-the case case today today for for the simplest uninsulated metal woodstoves--the potential performance of wood stoves is higher higher than than that for for charcoal charcoal stoves. stoves.
SOURCE: Samuel Samuel F. F. Baldwin, Baldwin, Biomass Stoves: Stoves: Engineering Engineering Design, Design, Development, Development, and and Dissemination Dissemination (Arlington, (Arlington, VA: VA: VITA, 1986); and OTA estimates.

the developing countries countries is is that that they they simply simply have have not not the developing worked e l l .17 ' w orked w well. The transition transition to to modern modern stoves stoves and fuels fuels is often often sharply constrained clue due to to their their higher higher capital capital costs costs sharply constrained (f igure 3-3) 3-3) and and uncertainty uncertainty in in the the supply supply of of fuel. fuel. In In (figure C olombo, S Sri Lanka, for for example, example, the the cost cost of Colombo, r i Lanka, of co nverting to to LPG LPG in 1983 was was equivalent equivalent to to 1 1 converting in 1983 m onths income income for for 70 70 percent percent of the population population and and month's of the 5 months income income for for the the poorest poorest 20 20 percent.' percent.18 Y et 5 months Yet coo king with with gas gas can can be be the the lowest lowest cost cost alternative alternative cooking when both capital capital and and operating operating costs costs are are included. included. when both In Raipur, India, India, the the cost cost of of cooking cooking with LPG is less In Raipur, with LPG is less of 30 than that for for wood wood for for household household discount discount rates of

per cent o r less; less; yet yet many many households households continue continue t o use use percent or to w ood, presumably presumably because because effective effective household household disdiswood, 19 co unt rates are higher the capital capital cost cost of stoves count rates are higher" ((the of gas gas stoves was cited as as a jor reason reason fo r the ailure t o switch switch was cited a ma major for the f failure to ffrom rom wood wood t o LPG r coo king). to LPG fo for cooking). Be cause of cost of king, c harBecause of the the high high cost of LPG LPG coo cooking, charco al and kerosene are coal and kerosene are widely widely used used as as an an intermediate intermediate step on f rom w ood t o gas gas stoves. stoves. step in in the the transiti transition from wood to Char coal is is very very popular popular in some urban areas. F or Charcoal in some urban areas. For example, is the the fuel fuel of hoice in (see example, it it is of c choice in urban urban Kenya Kenya (see ffigure igure 3 -2) and Senegal-which have on of 3-2) and Senegal-which have a a traditi tradition of c harcoal production production a and use remaining remaining from from the the charcoal n d use historical Consumers hist orical Saharan Saharan trade trade caravans.' caravans. 20 C onsumers

F. Stoves: Development, and 17 Improved Woodburning Cookstoves: Cookstoves: Signs Signs of No. 4-5, 4-5, 1985. 1985. S "Improved Woodburning of Success, Success," A M B / 0 , vol. vol. 14, 14, No. a Household Energy in South South A s i a (New pli e d S ci e n c e, 1987). IgGerald Leach, Household Energy in (New York, NY: NY: Elsevier Ap Applied Science, et al., Consumption of and Other Household Cooking Fuels in Indian Cities, Energy Policy, January/February 1990, pp. 19 ue 92-99. 1. Discount 92-99. "Discount rates rates" are are a a measure measure of of the the time time value value that that households households place place on on their their available available cash cash income. income. l D Energy Review of Household Energy Issues draft report, May 1987, p. 3, p. 1.6. F 2
u . W n Br o ad lk e l B m

 Energy in 54 in Developing Developing Countries Countries

prefer t gives pre fer charcoal charcoal to to wood wood because because iit gives off less smoke,' blackens sm oke, 21 bla ckens pots pots less, less, requires requires little tending of 22 in some less.' At the fire, fire, and and in some areas costs costs less. A t the national i t h charcoal nati onal level, level, however, however, cooking cooking w with charcoal consumes co nsumes far far more more forest forest resources resources than cooking cooking directly dire ctly with wood, wood, due due to to the low low energy efficiency efficiency of converting converting wood wood to to charcoal-typically charcoal-typically just just 40 40 to to 60 percent percent and and often often much much lower.' lower.23 Kerosene Ker osene is usually usually the next step up in the proprogression n many gressi on of of cooking cooking fuels. fuels. IIn many areas, areas, kerosene kerosene prices-often pri ces-often subsidized subsidized or or freed freed by the governgovernmentform ment form a reasonably reasonably effective effective cap cap on on the price price of wood Consumers of wood and and charcoal.' charcoal.24 C onsumers switch switch between between these fuels fuels according according to to price price and availability.

Total T otal household household energy energy use use for for cooking cooking with kerokerosene (see figure can be signi signifisene (see f igure 3-4) 3-4) or or with LPG c an be ficantly for or to c antly less'than less26 than that fo r wood wood o r charcoal, charcoal, due due t o the higher e efficiency kerosene gas st stoves.' the fficiency of ker osene and gas oves.27 Total T otal household household energy use use for for cooking cooking with kerokerosene o or LPG is als also significantly than fo for sene r LPG o signi ficantly less than r cooking coo king with charcoal charcoal or or (non-hydro) (non-hydro) electricity, electricity, due to wood to due to the low low conversion conversion efficiency efficiency of w ood t o charcoal fuel c harcoal and of f uel to to electricity.' electricity.28 The transition The transition to to modern modern stoves stoves and and fuels fuels thus thus offers off ers users users many many benefits-reduced benefits-reduced time, time, labor, labor, and possibly fuel for cooking, local and possibly f uel use use fo r coo king, and reduced reduced l ocal air pollution. lowering air pollution. Means Means of of l owering capital capital and and operatoperating costs of supply are ing costs and ensuring the reliability of needed f the p oor are o gain access access t o these these c lean, needed iif poor are t to to clean, high -efficiency technologies. technologies. A At the the national national level, level, high-efficiency the transiti transition to modern stoves and f fuels could the on t om odern st oves and uels co uld 29 impr ove the the local local environment' environment and ficantly improve and signi significantly redu ce biomass biomass energy energy consumption consumption fo r cooking; cooking; t o reduce for to realize these benefits, benefits, however, however, could could imp ose a realize these impose a substantial financial burden burden on on poor poor nations. nations. substantial financial

LPG or or natural natural gas gas is is often often the the final final step step in in the the pr ogression in in cooking cooking fuels. fuels. LPG LPG is is widely widely used used by by progression higher income income groups groups in in many many urban urban areas, areas, and and natural gas is is widely widely used used where where it is available. available. In In natural gas it is Dhaka, Bangladesh, for for example, example, over over 50 50 percent percent of of Dhaka, Bangladesh, the urban population population use use natural natural gas; gas; less less than than 10 10 the urban per cent use use kerosene; kerosene; and and none none use use charcoal.'In charcoal. 25 In percent s ome cases, cases, electricity electricity is is also also used used for for cooking cooking by by some the highest in co me gr o ups. the highest income groups.
As A s households households make make the the transition transition from from wood wood to to m odern fuels, fuels, overall overall energy energy use use for for cooking cooking can can modern vary cally, depending depending o n the hoice of vary dramati dramatically, on the c choice of te chnology and and the the situation situation in in which which it is used. used. technology i t is

A large-scale transition transition to to LPG LPG would would require require a A large-scale a signi ficant investment oth c apital equipment significant investment in in b both capital equipment and and o ngoing fuel fuel costs. costs. optimistically optimistically assuming assuming that that the the ongoing co st of systems would would average average $10 apita, cost of LPG LPG systems $10 per per c capita, the investment w ould be oughly 3.5 3.5 percent percent of the investment would be r roughly of GNP GNP and 20 percent percent of of the value added added in facturing and 20 the value in manu manufacturing

off hi@ of carbon monoxide-a serious health hazard in ventilated kitchens--but 2 from a wood fire. not Icause as much obvious discomfort to the user as the smoke from c2 F. Barnes, World Household Energy Industry and Energy Developing 2 h Nations, Oct. 31, 31, 1989, 1989, table 1. Conversion Conversion to D Nations," Oct. table 1. to dollars per per unit unit of of energy energy was was done done using using 30 30 M.I/kg for for charcoal, charcoal, and and using using 700 700 kg kg per per cubic cubic meter meter au multiplied by o multiplied by 16 16MI/kg for for wood wood with with typical typical moisture moisture contents contents observed observed in in the the market. market. r g1 conversion process is variously given as 15 a, in Kenya additional loss of 5 percent 23 c a scharcoal itself during distribution% 29 percent in Senegal and Ethiopia, and over 50 percent in of of the the charcoal itself during distribution% 29 percent in Senegal and Ethiopia, and over 50 percent in Brazil with with brick brick kilns. kilns. Advanced Advanced retorts retorts are are claimed claimed T o F to be capable of of achieving converting wood to be capable achieving 72 72 percent percent energy energy efficiencies efficiencies in in converting wood to to charcoal charcoal if if there there is is complete complete recovery recovery of of all all the the gaseous gaseous byproducts. byproducts. h e a . E. Preliminary Charcoal Charcoal Survey in See Seee in Ethiopia, U.N. Economic Economic Commission Commission for for Africa, FAO FA O Forest Forest Industries Industries Advisory Advisory for for Africa, Africa, Dec. Dec. l E. Ulaart, Preliminary B 122, Demand Structures Structures in M75-1 122, 1975,30 1975,30 pp.; pp.; M i . and and M I . Luhanga, Luhanga, Energy Energy Demand in Rural Rural Tanzania, Department Department of of Electrical Electrical Engineering, Engineering, University University of of n s a Phil OKeefe, and Development iin Kenya: Opportunities Opportunities and and Constraints Constraints Dar-es-Salaam, Dar-es-Salaam. Tawania, 1984; 1984; Phil O'Keefe, Paul Paul Raskin, and and Steve Steve Bemow, Bemow, Energy Energy a n d Development n Kenya: e t r (Sweden: Carbonization: Final Final Technical Technical Report Report of Specialist, UNFAO, (Sweden: Beijen Institute, Institute, 1984); 1984); G B . Karch, Carbonization: o f Forest Forest Energy Energy Specialist, UNFAO, SEN/78/002, 1980.; 1980.; TS. r o n Wood, Report on on Domestic Domestic Energy Energy Usefor Usefor Cooking Cooking (Energy (Energy Assessment Wood, Report Assessment Mission, Ethiopia) Ethiopia) (Washington, DC: DC: World World Bank, 1983), 1983), p. p. 33; 33; FLORASA, g v e Man-h-fade Wood and Brazil (Minas Gerais, Man-h-lade Forests for Wood and Charcoal Charcoal in in Brazil Gerais, Brazil: Brazil: Florestal Acesita, S.A., S.A., Belo Belo Horizonte, Horizonte, October October 1983), 1983), p. p. 53. 53. y e s e F, Barnes, Understanding s Prices in Developing Nations, op. cit., footnote 22. 24

, f c D WorldDevelopment, No. 7, *65-872. W 25 f a o Mu of t h e v e x-y poor. For example, one-third the poor Not all th i n g r J .l de Janeiro own just one of bottle. To avoid the risk of running out of gas and having no substitute, many households exchange e p c of Rio Rio de Janeiro own just one LPG bottle. To avoid the risk of running out of gas and having no substitute, many households exchange their their gas gas bottles bottles a l, P s they are completely empty. See before Consumption in Janeiro Shanty o they are completely empty. See Alfredo Behrens, Household before Household Energy Energy Consumption in Rio Rio De De Janeiro Shanty Towns Towns (Rio (Rio de de Janerio, Janerio, Brazil: Brazil: i h F d r i da America Colegio 1985). t da America Latina, 1985). e o , B o not quite as large as would be expected from the efficiency of en n w 271 B a r t i be c This may be due, in part, to less precise control of the stove; to taking advantage of greater useful energy; and other factors. See Kevin B. e This rnay due, in part, to less precise control of the stove; to taking advantage of greater useful energy; and other factors. See Kevin B. Fitzgerald, Fitzgerald, n a n , a y Douglas Barnes, and and Gordon Gordon McGranaban, "Interfuel Substitution and Changes in the Way Households Use The Case of Cooking and Lighting v Douglas Barnes, Substitution and Changes in the Way Households Use Energy: The Case of Cooking and Lighting p r r k " l o Behavior in e Behavior in Urban Urban Java, Java," U.N. Working Working Paper Paper on on Interfuel Substitution Substitution Analysis, Analysis, June June 13, 13, 1990. 1990. a n , Fc e f f f for of of processed r t e 2 H ug i c i t , i eaten. s O t o e e n c h g c , h u l e might, however, 291t however, increase global global carbon carbon dioxide emissions. y e i , " r s M g c v h U f e a a o e o n a h r i n o w d c o k n v f e lt

Chapter 3-Energy n Developing Chapter 3-Energy Services Services iin Developing Countries .55 .55

Figure 3-4Direct Energy Use for Cooking in West F i g Figure u r e 3-5-Daily Load Profiles for Cooking Energy, P o n d i c h e Pro n d r icy h e r ,r y , I In nd di ia a,, 119 98 80 0 Java, Indonesia Indonesia
3 3 30 1,000 1,000 25 20 15 / n Per-capita energy use, use, IVINday MJ/day Per-capita energy 5 ~

a
I

t Per-capita a power o r cooking, power demand demand ffor cooking, watts watts 1, 2 20 00 1 0 -

8008 0 06006 0 04004 0 02002 0 0~r T - - - T 0 , r T T

3

10 5

o o

Low

L L

I
T T
-

1
H i g

eLower r middle e r middle middle U p p Upper middle Income group Income group
' W Wo oo od d K erro os se en ne e ~ K e

High h

Jr ~ T Th - r

r~

T - T - \ r

This figure figure compares compares energy energy use use in households households using only only wood This f figure igure il l u s t r a t e s tthe he h ighly p eaked p ower d e m a n d ffor or c ooking This illustrates highly peaked power demand cooking with in households using only kerosene within the same with that in income class. class. Households Households using using kerosene kerosene consume consume roughly roughly half half e n eenergy r g y as as measured measured in in a a village village survey. survey. and V.A. VasudevaraM, "Domestic as much much energy energy as as households households using wood. wood. S O U R C SOURCE: E : C t . Gupta, K. K. Usha Usha Rae, Rae, and
SOURCE: M. Policy Analysis of Rural Household Energy SOURCE: M. Hadi Soesastro, "Policy Analysis of Rural Household Energy Needs in in West West Java," Java, M. Nurul Islam, Richard Morse, and M. Development Hadi Soesastro (eds.), Rural Energy to Meet D evelopment CO: Westview Needs: Asian Village Approaches (Boulder, CO: Press, 1984). 1984).

0 111 1 112 2 113 3 114 4 115 5 116 6 117 7 118 8 119 9 220 0 221 1 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 1 10 Hour o f day Hour of

Energy Energy Consumption Consumption in in India India (Pondicherry (Pondicherry Region), Region),"Energy, Energy, 1213-1222. .vol. 5, 5, pp. 1213-1222.

fo r the the nearly nearly three three billion billion people people in lowest for in the the lowest income o untries. u n t r i e s .30 ' The The LPG LPG u s e d31 'w would in come c co used ould be equivalent to one-fourth one-fourth of of the the total total commercial commercial equivalent to energy consumption today today by by these these countries countries and and energy consumption w ould be be a a signi ficant f raction of ort would significant fraction of their their exp export 32 earnings. Significant economic economic growth growth is is needed needed i f earnings. Significant if these costs costs are are to to be be absorbed. absorbed. C osts would would be be even even higher higher i if electricity were were Costs f electricity used for cooking. cooking. Direct Direct capital capital costs costs for for electric electric used for burners typically approach approach $100 $100 per per household household or or burners typically m ore. Moreover, Moreover, at at the the national national level, level, the the capital capital more. co st of of installing generation, transmission, transmission, and and cost installing generation, distributi on equipment equipment to to power power electric electric burners burners is is distribution mu ch greater, greater, perhaps perhaps several several thousand thousand dollars dollars per per much h ousehold. 33 If relatively relatively few few households households are are using using household:If ele ctricity for for cooking, cooking, these these high capital costs costs are are electricity high capital partially offset by by the the numerous numerous other other uses uses for for partially offset

ele ctric power power throughout throughout the the day. day. I significant electric If f a a significant f raction o of households switch switch t to o electricity electricity f fo fraction f households or r coo king, however, however, the the highly highly peaked peaked energy energy demand demand cooking, fo r cooking cooking (see (see f igure 3-5) 3-5) will will overwhelm overwhelm o ther for figure other basel oad applications, applications, and and these these costs costs must must increasincreasbaseload ingly be assigned assigned to to cooking cooking alone. alone. ingly be

Lighting 3 4
Lighting accounts fo ro nly a raction of otal Lighting accounts for only a small small f fraction of t total nati onal energy energy use use in in both both developing developing and and indusindusnational trial countries. In r example, ust 1.7 trial countries. In Kenya, Kenya, fo for example, j just 1.7 per perc ent of onal energy energy use use is rd omestic lighting cent of nati national is fo for domestic lighting ((app. app. 3-A). 3-A). Lighting Lighting does, does, however, however, account account fo ra for a signi ficant fraction fraction of of t otal electricity electricity use, use, and and the significant total the ele ctricity sector sector is very capital capital intensive (see c h. 4). 4). electricity is very intensive (see ch. Despite its relatively relatively low low energy energy use, use, lighting lighting Despite its merits particular attention attention as as it plays a impormerits particular it plays a very very impor-

34

World Development 1989 (New NY: Oxford University Press, 1989), tables 1 and 6. 30 W g aper-eapitapower rate for cooking with systems of 100 watts. This is comparable to that seen in the United States and about twice 31 o r that seen in European countries. that in European countries. It It is is likely likely that that people people in in developing developing counties counties would would continue continue to to eat eat less less processed processed food, food, less less restaurant restaurant food, food, and and Aseen ld probably more grains grains and and so so would continue to to use use somewhat somewhat more is used used in households in probably would continue more fuel fuel than than is in households in the the industrialized industrialized countries. countries. Energy Energy use use rates rates for for s s more B household cooking in workshop on household cooking in different different countries countries are are given given in in K. K. Krishna Krishna Prasad, Cooking "Cooking Energy, Energy," workshop on end-use end use focused focused global global energy energy strategy, strategy, ur a Princeton University, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, NJ, Apr. Apr. 21-29, 21-29, 1982. 1982. ni n op. cit., footnote 30, table 5. Kilograms of oil been converted at42 n g 32 k a 2 A assumed here rather than an average p o w e r a s fo r W3 A 3 , p o r upower electric systems cannot store power electric power systems cannot easily easily store power and and must must be be able able to to meet meet peak peak demands. demands. ss W e l d Robert Piss and de World A Lamps for Domestic m o 3 4 r B i r in Lighting Developing Countries,energy series paper paper No No. 6, 6, June 1988; and Robert van der World Domestic Lighting, r P Lighting in Developing Countries," energy series June 1988; and Robert a n der Piss, World Bank, "Domestic Lighting, " Energy Energy Sector Sector ag n Management and Assessments, Industry and Energy Department, working paper No. WPS 68, November 1988. l i n Management and Assessments, Industry and Energy Department, working paper No. WPM, November 1988. e n ai d c a k pa D p p , e e 1 iW a v s t o

56 Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries Countries

tant social in commerce tant social role role in in domestic domestic life life and and in commerce and and or industry, making activities activities possible possible at night o r ural where natural natural lighting is inadequate. inadequate. As As r rural incomes in comes increase, increase, or or as people people move move to to urban areas and gain greater access access to to modern modern fuels fuels and electricelectricity, lighting ity, lighting services services and and the the energy energy used used to to provide provide them increase increase dramatically. dramatically.

Figure 3-6-Light Output and Efficiency Figure Efficiency of Various Lighting Technologies Lighting Technologies
Flux (lumens) Flux (lumens) 1,000 1 1,000 I 800 800 800 800 400 400
L

Device efficiency Device efficiency (lumens/watt) (lumens/watt) 100 ,,+ 1 00

A A

10 10

Lighting technologies technologies follow follow a a fairly fairly clear clear techtechnological n performance, n ological progression progression iin performance, efficiency, efficiency, and cost cost (see (see figure figure 3-6). 3-6). Consumers' Consumers choices choices of lighting technologies technologies largely largely follow follow the the same same proprogressi on as as household household incomes incomes increase increase and and as as gression ele ctricity becomes becomes available. available. electricity In traditional rural rural areas, areas, people people are are often often limited In traditional limited t o the the light light available available from from wood wood fires, fires, frequently frequently to o btained iin conjunction w with cooking. Kerosene Kerosene obtained n conjunction i t h cooking. wi ck lamps lamps are are usually usually the the first first step step up up in the wick in the pr ogression. These These may be as as simple simple as as a a wick wick in a progression. may be in a jar of of kerosene, kerosene, or or as as complex complex as as a a hurricane hurricane lamp lamp jar with a glass glass chimney chimney .35 .35 Glass Glass chimney chimney lamps lamps with a generally provide more more light and at a higher ffigenerally provide light and at a higher e effic iency than than open open wick wick lamps. lamps. Glass Glass chimney chimney lamps lamps ciency als o cost cost slightly slightly more-a more-a f ew dollars-and dollars-and use use also few somewhat s omewhat more more fuel. fuel. These These additional additional costs costs can can be a substantial barrier to a to their use in rural areas. For For example, a survey survey of of six six villages villages in in Bangalore, Bangalore, India, India, example, a found fo und that that three-fourths three-fourths of of the households households used used simple open-wick lamps, lamps, and and only only one-fourth one-fourth used used simple open-wick lamps with glass glass chimneys.' chimneys.36 lamps with The light provided provided by by wood wood fires, fires, candles, candles, or or The light ker osene wick wick lamps lamps is is sufficient sufficient to to find find one's ones way, way, kerosene but is generally generally inadequate inadequate for for tasks tasks such such as as reading reading but is o r fine fine work. work. Using Using two two lamps lamps doubles doubles the the cost, cost, but but or d oes not not come come close close to to providing providing adequate adequate light light to to does w ork by. by. Thus, Thus, the the poorest poorest households households tend tend to to use use work just one one lamp. lamp. Wealthier Wealthier households households may may add add an an just additi onal lamp lamp or or two two for for other other rooms rooms in in the the house house additional o r move move up up to to a a kerosene kerosene mantle mantle light; light; however, however, the the or am ount of of kerosene kerosene used used per per household household does does not not amount generally increase in in proportion proportion with with income. income. As As a a generally increase result, the amount amount of of kerosene kerosene used used for for lighting lighting is is result, the similar (within a a factor factor of of two two or or so) so) across across different different similar (within

200

0 Wood C a n d l e Wood Candle

W i Wick c k M a n t l e Mantle Lighting t e chnology Lighting technology

Incandeslncandescent cent

0 . 1 FlouresFlourescent cent .

+ Device e f f i c i e n c y -Flux (Iumens) F Includes kerosene Includes the the candle, candle, kerosene wick wick lamp, lamp, kerosene kerosene mantle mantle lamp, lamp, l 60-watt lamp, 60-watt incandescent lamp, and and 22-watt 22-watt standard standard fluorescent fluorescent u lamp. lamp. No No value value given for for a a wood wood fire, fire, as as its its light light output output depends depends x is given on factors. The light output of candles and ( on size and other l are kerosene lamps similarly highly variable; the values values listed are kerosene lamps are similarly listed are representative. representative.uOnly the the efficiency efficiency of of the the device device (plus (plus ballast) ballast) itself itself m System efficiencies-induding refinery is refinery losses losses in is considered. e kerosene production and generation, generation, transmission, transmission, and and distribudistribukerosene production and n tion tion Iosses losses for forselectricity--will be be considered considered in a a later later report report of of this this OTA OTA study. ) I SOURCES: van SOURCES: Robert Robert van der Plas,WorldBank, Bank, Domestic "Domestic Lighting, Lighting," Energy Energy sector Management sector Management and and Assessments, Assessments, Industry Industry and and Energy Energy D Department, No. WPS WPS 68, 68, November November 1988. 1988. Department, working paper No. e der Pies cites efficiency of 30 Van cites the efficiency of electricity electricity production production as as 30 v percent, factor is apparently apparently not percent, but this factor not taken taken into into amount in in the thei incandescent incandescent light efficiency figure figure of of 12 12 Im/W. See, See, for for c example, example, Samuel Berman, Berman, Energy "Energy and and Lighting, Lighting," David David e Henry Hatemeister, Henry Kelly, Kelly, and Barbara Barbara Levi(ads.), (ads.), Energy e Conservation Sources: Conservation and and Renewable Renewable (New (New York, York, NY: NY: f American Institute of Physics, Physics, 1985). 1985). Berman Berman gives gives the the output American Institute output f 1OO-W of of a 1 0 0 - W incandescent as 1,600 1,600 lumens lumens and a 50-W 50-W i fluorescent 3,300 lumens. lumens. The The efficiencies efficiencies shown shown here here are fluorescent as 3,300 c slightly iowereorresponding to the the lower, lower, assumed assumed wattage slightly iowereorresponding wattage of of the thei light. See See also Terry Terry McGowan, McGowan, "Energy-Efficient LightLighte Thomas B. Johansson, Birgit Bodiund, and ing, ing," and Robert Robert H. H. n Williams Williams (eds.), Electricity: Efficient End-Use and and New New GenerGenerc Technologies and ation ation and Their Their Planning Planning Implications (Lund, (Lund, y Sweden: Lund University Sweden: University Press, Press, 1989). 1989).

in come gr oups and fferent regi ons of income groups and in in di different regions of the the world.' w orld. 37 Despite the drawbacks drawbacks of of kerosene kerosene wick wick lamps, lamps, Despite the they are a a predominant predominant te chnology in oor rural they are technology in p poor rural and and urban Although their utput is ow, the urban areas. areas. Although their light light o output is l low, the c apital and and operating operating costs costs of osene wi ck lamps capital of ker kerosene wick lamps are also low low (see (see f igure 3-7). 3-7). Further, Further, kerosene kerosene c an are also figure can be chased in amily f inances be pur purchased in small small quantities quantities as as f family finances

given off by wick host of factors, including size, condition of the wick (unraveled or uneven), 35 deposited on the the glass glass chimney (if T deposited on (if present). present). h Consumption Patterns: A Field Study, 3e 6 l i A 3 7 g S Canada: Development Research Center, 1981); In Fiji G In Fiji (Ottawa, ( anada: International Development Research Center, 1981); Girja Sharan (cd.), (cd.), Energy Energy Use Use in in Rural Gujurat (New (New Delhi: Oxford Oxford and and h T Co., ePublishing r IBMt Co., 1987). 1987). The The Gujurat study study found found that that one one of of the tile few few variables variables affecting affecting kerosene kerosene use use was was the the number number of of rooms rooms per per household. household. Even Even R this, was a however, l this, however, was a a relatively relatively weak weak relationship. relationship.
g , A d i " L v R e e u a

Chapter 3--Energy Services in Developing Countries 4,57 Chapter 57

Figure 3-7--Costs of o f Various Va r i o u s Lighting L i g h t i n g Technologies Te c h n o l o g i e s Figure

Total cost cost to to operate operate (sihr) ($/hr)

Cost p e r llight i g h t output Cost per output (6/lumen) ($/lumen)

0.08 0.0 8
1 0.06 0.0 6 -

New installation

0.04 0.04

0.02 -

I N e w i n s t a l l a t i1 1 o n

r- l r
~

1.000' --04 04 1.000

<
4 4

\
w

New installations New installations

1..0 00 00 0 1 -0 05 5
\\ 1 ' lx. Marginal c o sxt Marginal cost \ .

Marginal ccost ost Marginal 1.00 0' I 6 - - --r - r 1 .000 I -0 -06 W o o Wood d C a n d l e Candle h t i n

Wood c a n Candle d l e Wood

t l e M a n e l t Incandescent Flourescent Wick M a n Mantle Incandescent Flourescent Lighting technology Lighting technology L i g

T T - - - -r r - ---T W i Wick c k M a Mantle n t l e Incandescent luorescent Incandescent F Fluorescent g Lighting technology technology

(A) Direct costs to the the consumer consumer of operating various lighting technologies per hour of service. (B) (B) Direct Direct costs costs to to the the consumer consumer of of various various lighting technologies per per unit unit of of light output. The costs shown include only only cash expenditures; they they do do not not include include labor labor costs costs for for maintaining maintaining kerosene lamps, lamps, etc. etc. The The high value value for electric lights shows the effect of applying all the grid connection charges charges to a single single light light corresponding to the the situation faced by the poor rural household that will initially use use but one one or two lights. The The low low value value for for electric electric lights lights ignores the cost of grid connection charges, corresponding to the the marginal cost of adding additional lights after after being being connected connected to to the the grid. grid. The assumed assumed discount rate is 10 percent. In practice, individuals in both the developing and industrialized world world tend tend to to apply apply much much higher higher discount rates when making investment decisions in energy-conserving technologies. Rates Rates observed observed in in the United United States States are are typically typically in the range of 40 to 80 percent. Similarly, high effective discount rates have been been observed observed in in developing countries. If higher higher effective effective discount rates are applied, applied, the the higher capital costs of kerosene mantle lamps lamps and, especially, electric grid connections connections will will tend tend to to present present more of of a a barrier barrier to investment. investment.
SOURCES: Derived Derived from from figures figures 3-6 3-6 and and 3-7A. 3-7A. See See also: also: Harry Harry Cherneff, "individual individual Purchase Purchase Criteria Criteria for Energy-Related Energy-Related Durables: The The Misuse Misuse of of Life Life Cycle Cycle Cost, Energy Journal, Journal, vol. vol. 4, 4, No. 4, 4, October 1983,, 1983,. PP . 81-86; 81-86; David French, "The The Economies Cost," Energy pp. Economies of of Renewable Renewable Enerov Systems for for Davelooino . Countries, Washington, DC, DC, June June 1979. 1979. Countries," 'Washington,
. . ,

permit. Kerosene wick wick lamps lamps are are thus thus well well matched matched permit Kerosene t o the the reality reality of of rural rural life life in in developing developing countries, countries, to where capital and and resources resources are are sharply sharply limited. limited. where capital W ood fires fires and/or and/or kerosene kerosene wick wick lamps lamps are are the the Wood primary sources of of light light for for more more than than two two billion billion primary sources pe ople worldwide. worldwide. people

lighting high on on their energy services. services. lighting high their list list of of desired desired energy F or example, example, a households in For a survey survey of of 320 320 households in several several villages and small small towns towns of of Nigeria found that 90 villages and Nigeria found that 90 per cent ranked ranked electricity--primarily electricity--primarily for for lighting lighting percent as their top top choice choice in desired energy energy services.' services.38 as their in desired Even electric lighting owEven where where electric lighting is is available, available, h however, the high cost of nnecting t o the ctric grid ever, the high cost of co connecting to the ele electric grid c reates a a substantial substantial barrier barrier fo r poor poor f amilies that use creates for families that use 39 o nly o ne o r a f ew lightbulbs ( see f igure 3 7 ) , and only one or a few lightbulbs (see figure 3-7),' and this substantially slows slows penetration. penetration. A A study study in this substantially in Gu j urat, India, fo und that 10 years a f ter villages Gujurat, India, found that 10 years after villages had had gained access to to the the ele ctric grid, less than gained access electric grid, less than a a third third of of the households had had connected; connected; this this increased increased to to the households ab out tw o-thirds a fter 20 years.40 Un certain electric electric about two-thirds after 20 years.' 'Uncertain supply in many developing developing countries-including countries-including supply i n many bla ckouts and and brownouts-also brownouts-also tends tends to to discourage discourage blackouts p otential users users and and forces forces those those who who have nnected potential have co connected t o the the grid grid to to simultaneously simultaneously maintain maintain alternative alternative to ker osene lighting lighting systems. systems. kerosene

Next in the the progression progression are are butane butane or or pressurized pressurized Next in ker osene mantle mantle lamps. lamps. These These are are much much like the gas gas kerosene like the lamps used for for camping camping in in the the United United States. States. Mantle Mantle lamps used lamps give substantially substantially more more light light and and are are more more lamps give e fficient than than wick wick lamps; lamps; they they also also cost cost more more to to efficient pur chase and and operate, operate, tend tend to to be be hot hot and and noisy, noisy, and and purchase c an cause cause considerable considerable glare. glare. can Finally, in contrast contrast to to kerosene kerosene lamps lamps or or other other Finally, in n onelectric lighting lighting technologies, technologies, electric electric lighting lighting is is nonelectric c lean, relatively relatively safe, safe, easy easy to to operate, operate, efficient, efficient, and and clean, pr ovides high-quality high-quality light. light. People People in areas and and provides in rural rural areas small towns of of developing developing countries countries place place electric electric small towns

I. Onyebuchi, Analysis of Rural Energy Choices in Nigeria, Natural Resources Forum, vol. 12, No. 2, 1988, pp. 181-186. 38 tends t. barrier grid costs present to people poor perceived costs E9 F i 3 dur to charges areoftenmuchhigher in developing countries assumed for g to financecomection charges in developing countries than than the the 10 10 percent percent discount rate rate assumed for this this figure. figure. Using Using more more realistic realistic w cost of e effective discount rates rates of of 50 50 percent, the the cost of electric lightingif the villager villager could could raise raise the the money money at at allper operating hour hour would would rise rise from from $0.07 a to $0.34, compared to to $0.02 $0.02 for a kerosene kerosene mantle mantle light light and $0,01 for kerosene wick to $0.34, 3 r_ compared for a and $0,01 for a a kerosene wick lamp. lamp. The The choice choice of of kerosene kerosene wick wick or or mantle mantle lamps lamps is is thus thus logical logical d the given given the financial constraints constraints that that the the poor poor face. face. 7 I Rural Op. cit., t 0e 4 Gi . n r O jd n 33-718 00 - - 9 90 0 - - 33 s a y t h S e .

58 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries Countries

Electricity Ele ctricity use use for for lighting rises rapidly with household h ousehold income. income. For For example, example, in South South Bombay, Bombay, India, rates rates of household household electricity electricity use during the evening varied from from 93 watts for for the lowest lowest income income group gr oup to to 365 365 watts watts for for the highest highest income income group.' group.4l The "choice choice of of electric electric lighting lighting technology technology also also varies as varies as incomes incomes increase. increase. Low-income Low-income households households in South South Bombay Bombay installed more more conventional conventional fluofluorescent res cent lights-despite lights-despite their higher capital capital cost cost and operated operated them more more intensively due to to their l lower ower operating operating costs. costs. As As incomes incomes increased, increased, househouseh olds shifted shifted away away from from the the harsh harsh light light of of convenconvenholds ti onal fluorescent fluorescent to to the the more more natural natural light light of of tional in candescent (see (see figure figure 3-8). 3-8). 42 incandescent 4 A s incomes incomes increase increase with with economic economic development, development, As ' h ouseholds begin begin to to buy buy other other appliances-radios, appliances-radios, households T Vs, fans, fans, refrigerators, refrigerators, and and air air conditioners. conditioners. ElecElecTVs, tri city use use for for lighting lighting usually usually continues continues to to increase, increase, tricity but becomes only only a a small small fraction fraction o of otal but iit t becomes f t total residential electricity use use (see (see figure figure 3-9). 3-9). Electricity Electricity residential electricity use for lighting lighting iin the commercial commercial and and service service use for n the se ctors also also grows grows rapidly rapidly as as the the economy economy expands. expands. sectors

Figure 3-3-Changes in Capacity and and Type Type of of Installed Installed Figure Electric Lighting Per Household With Income Electric Income Level in South Bombay, India India South
Installed wattage, Installed wattage, kW kW 1.6 I 1.6
1.4 1 41.21 .21 --

Percent fluorescent n t fluorescent 50 50 I

40 30

0.. 8 80 0.6 0 .60.4 0 .40.2 0 .2-

01 0 ! RS 0-1000 0-1000 RS

RS 1000-2500 R S RS 2500-4000 2500-4000 RS 1000-2500 Income group Income group

RS 4000RS 4000-

I
I

20 20 10 10

0 0

The demand for for lighting lighting has has also also continued continued to to The demand in crease in in the the industrialized industrialized countries countries over over the increase the past past 30 years as as incomes incomes have have increased. increased. Today, Today, the the 30 years average rate of of lighting lighting use use ranges ranges from from r oughly 20 20 average rate roughly t o 100 100 million million lumen-hours lumen-hours per per capita capita per per year to year ( Mlmhr/cap-yr) iin the industrial industrial countries.' countries.43 In (Mlmhr/cap-yr) n the In co mparison, annual annual household household light light production production iin comparison, n S outh Bombay Bombay varies varies with with 44household household income income from from South ab out 1 1 to to 3 3 Mlmhricap-yr Mlmhr/cap-yr,. light production in the about co mmer c ial se ctor might might double double these these numbers. numbers. commercial ; l i g h tsector This is equivalent t o a per -c apita co nsumpti on level level This a per-capita consumption p r is o equivalent d u c t to i o n that is o nly 10 t o 30 per c ent of the l o west levels that is n only 10 to 30 percent of the lowest levels i am o ng industrialized countries. among industrialized countries. t h e I f lighting lighting services services equal equal to to half half the If the minimum minimum n the level observed observed iin the industrialized industrialized countries-10 countries-10 Mlmhr /cap-yr--are tto o be be provided provided iin developing Mlmhricap-yr--are n developing co untries, then per -c apita demand fo r lighting eleccountries, then per-capita demand for lighting electri c ity will be ab o ut 500 ( k W h ) kil o watth o urs tricity will be about 500 (kWh) kilowatthours per per

+ percent fluorescent - Installed wattage I lnstalled per Installed wattage per household household and the fraction fraction of of installed installed n wattage fluorescent remainder is incandescent) incandescent) is wattage that s is fluorescent (the remainder shown household shown versus household income income in in rupees. rupees. The The intensity intensity of of use use t of wattage of this installed wattage varied with the the type type of of lighting lighting and and the a household household lincome. income. The The lowest lowest income income group group used used 80 80 percent percent of of l their capacity of their installed installed of fluorescent fluorescent and and 45 percent percent of of their their e incandescent during incandescent during the evening. evening. The The highest highest income income group group d percent of their installed capacity of both fluorescents used used just 25 25 percent of their installed capacity of both fluorescents w and during and incandescents during the the evening. evening. a SOURCE: Aehok SOURCE: A and Bhaskar Natarajan, Impact "Impact of o f Sociot e h o k Gadgil and and Economic and Architectural Factors on Peak Peak Electricity DeDet mand: A Case Study of South Bombay, Energy, vol. mand: Case Study of South Bombay, Energy, vol. 14, 14, No. No. 4, 4, a 1969, pp. 229-236. 229-236. 1969, g e I 45 p e r c e n 46 t f l u o r e s c e n t

year. This is equivalent t o an ower demand year. This is equivalent to an evening evening p power demand of perhaps 150 150 watts watts per per c of perhaps capita. a p i t a .If that level of evening demand occurred occurred at system peak evening demand at the the utility utility system peak 45 lload, as is typi devel countries, then in developing countries, then the the Io fad, t as h is a typical t cal l in e v eoping l c apital co st t o pr o vide ele c tri c ity fo r lighting w o uld capital cost to provide electricity for lighting would o f be roughly $300 $300 per per person.' person. be roughly

Space Space Conditioning, Refrigeration, and and Other Other Appliances

Spa ce Conditioning Conditioning Space

Heating residential or or commercial commercial buildings Heating residential buildings will will never bean imp o rtant energy servi c e in jority never bean important energy service in the the ma majority of developing countries countries since since most most have have tropical tropical of developing c limates. Spa c e heating will be imp o rtant in some climates. Space heating will be important in some

data in Ashok and Impact of and Architectural Factors on Peak Electricity Demand: 41 A Case 4, A Case Study of of South South Bombay, Bombay," Energy, Energy, vol. vol. 14, 14, No. No 4 , 1989, 1989, pp. pp. 229-236. 229-236. The The lowest lowest income income group group uses uses 80 80 percent percent of of their their installed installed 71 71 watts watts of of C Study fluorescent and 45 45 percent percent of installed 81 81 watts watts of fluorescent and of their their installed of incandescent; incandescent; the the highest highest income income group group uses uses 25 25 percent percent of of their their installed installed 1,460 1,460 watts watts of of al and fluorescents and incandescent. cu as discussed for cooking, where the poor sensitive to l42This a particular case contrasts w
43 t e it h t h e m o r e Energy-Efficient Lighting, Terry ' Te r r y McGowan, "Energy-Efficient Lighting," in in Thomas Thomas B. B. Johansson, Birgit Bodlund, Bodlund, and and Robert Robert H. H. Williams Williams (eds.), (eds.), Electricity: Efficient d t f y and p iNew c Generation a l En&Use Technologies, and and Their Planning Implications Implications (Lund, Enct Use and New Generation Technologies, Their Planning (Lund, Sweden: Sweden: Lund Lund University University Press, Press, 1988). 1988). r so i t u a t i o n "Calculated from from Gadgil and and Natarajan, op. op. cit., cit., footnote 41. m , hews of the evening. d a s 45 a d i sg ancinstalled u s T capital cost for the system of $2,000 per of generating capacity. 46 t s e d h Ai a f o s ss ir a ur n c o o k s ai

Chapter 3-Energy 3 Chapter Services in Developing Countries . 59 Energ y f freezing to reezing point point during the winter, compared compared t o S average e r average outdoor outdoor temperatures temperatures of-3'C of3C to-5 to-5 'C with v i c eof 25 'C. C49.Additions to coal supply, more llows ows s e efficient ff9 icient stoves, stoves, or or better wall insulation insulation would would thus 4 i result result mainly in comfort improvements but n not co m fo rt impr o vements ot in Additions n energy energy savings. savings. t o D e c o a although Similarly, developing countries although many devel oping co untries v e Similarly, l have hot hot climates,Thttle climates,50 little energy energy is used used at present l have o s u cepcooling for n developing spa coop ling iin developing countries. countries. TradiTradip fo i r space ltional y building , designs onal building designs somewhat somewhat moderate moderate the n ti g extremesoin temperature through ventilation temperature thr ough natural ventilati on m C extremes and and other techniques that make make use use of of local local materials materials o r u other e techniques do not not require require additional additional energy energy inputs.' inputs.51 and n and t do urbanization and and the the use use of mmercial Increasing of co commercial r In icreasing urbanization materials, however, however, have have made made these these tradi materials, tradie building s onal practices practices less less pra ctical and opular. tional practical and less less p popular. 5 ti tive space space ventilation ventilation by by electric electric fans fans has has become become Active 9 Ac

Figure 3-9-Household 3-9-Household Electricity Electricity Use for Lighting v. Household Income, in Brazil
Electricity u use, s e , BBrazil r a z i l (kWh/household-month) Electricity (kWh/household-month)
4 0 0

3003 0 0-

2002 0 0-

100-

MWU 0 -2 MWU O-2

0 o

MWU 2-5 MWU 2-5 - Total

M W MWU U 5-10 5-10 income group income group

MWU 10-20 MWU 10-20

M WMWU U 2 0 20

electricity

+ Lighting electricity

T This graph graph shows shows that electricity use for lighting lighting continues to grow that grow o even in a relatively properous developing country with income with income even i n country t such as Brazil. Lighting electricity is, however, only a small fraction a of total total household household electricity use use in in this this case. case. MWU MWU are are minimum minimum electricity l wage units. units.e l SOURCE: Ashok Conservation Gadgil and Gilberto De Martino Jannuzzi, Conservation e Potential of Compact fluorescent Lamps in Incfia and and Brazil, Brazil, c Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory and Universidade Estadual de de t Campinas (Brazil: June 23, 1989). r i areas, however, however, such as as mountainous mountainous regions regions and and such c

p opular in ctric popular in many many areas areas where where there there is is reliable reliable ele electric servi ce and and costs costs are are affordable. affordable. F Fo example, service or r example, ele ctric fan fan ownership ownership in Beijing, China, China, jumped jumped electric in Beijing. ffrom rom 47 47 percent percent of ouseholds in 1981 to to 77 77 percent percent of h households in 1981 52 in 1984. 1984. in
52 A ir co nditioning in residences is Air conditioning in residences is a a luxury luxury item item fo und o nly in come h ouseholds in found only in the the highest highest in income households in devel oping countries countries (see (see figure figure 3 10 .53 In contrast, developing 3-1) 0 ). 60 percent of homes in United States -nearly 60 of all all homes in the the United States-nearly 5 5percent all conditioners: all wh need ita s have nditioners.54 A substanI n who co o need n t rithave t , air co 4 proportion tial proportion of of commercial, commercial, institutional, institutional, and and tial g overnment buildings developing countries countries are are A s u b s buildings t a n - iin government n developing air conditioned. air conditioned.

high -latitude areas like like northern northern China. China. Beijing, Beijing, for for high-latitude areas i example, has about about the the same same annual annual average average low low example,tyhas temperature as Chicago. Chicago. Nearly Nearly 20 20 percent percent o of temperature as f I - tal annual coal consumption and 5 percent China s total to China's annual coal consumption and 5 percent L of its annual annual biomass consumption consumption are are used used fo r of its biomass for i 47 g spa ce heating heating ( app. 3 -A) . space (app. 3-A). h
t 47 i In China, residences rarely rarely have have any any insulation insulation In China, residences n g have and often have large large gaps gaps around around doors doors and and win and often win48 e dews. d e w s Ind . l oor temperatures in these homes are e co ntrolled not by by a a therm ostat o r by comfort controlled not thermostat or by comfort 48 c requirements, but by f uel supply and f uel, though requirements, but by fuel supply-and fuel, though Indoot r scarce. In Kezuo county, Northeast China, c heap, is cheap, is i scarce. In Kezuo county, Northeast China. r fo reexample, example, average indoor indoor temperatures temperatures are are at at the the for t m c average i

A ir conditioning conditioning systems systems in developing countries countries Air in developing are also industrialare also often often less efficient efficient than those those in industrial ized co untries. Buildings usually are p oo rly insu ized countries. Buildings usually are poorly insulated, with large large amounts amounts of of air filtration; and and air lated, with air in infiltration; air co nditi o ners are generally less e ff i c ient than th ose in conditioners are generally less efficient than those in the west and and are are poorly poorly maintained maintained and and controlled. controlled. the west

p e r t contractor report prepared for the Office of Technology Assessment 47 a V t u y "Robert M. Wirtshafter, "Energy-Conservation Standards for for Buildings Buildings in China," Energy, Energy,,vol. vol. 13, 13. No. 3,1988, 3,1988, pp.265-274; pp.265-274; RobertM.Wirtsbafier acs r e and Energy Policy, vol. 15, No. 2, and Chang Song-ying, Energy "Energy Conservation Conservation in in Chinese Chinese Housing, Housing," Energy Policy, V01.15, No 2 , pp. pp. 158-168. 158-168. la A of Activity Completion Report No. @World i v @World B 1989. 101/89, a n 101/89, May 1989. n S t e m p e r a t u r e o f 113 oF. None k , 50 of the world's hottest cities are in the developing world. The hottest is Djibouti, with an average annual high temperature SoAll r t " c50 h coldest i of 50 coldest cities is is in the developing developing world. Facts andFigures andFigures (New (New York, NY: a of the tile cities in the world. See See V. V. Showers, Showers, World World Facts NY: John John Wiley& Wiley& Sons, Sons, 1979). 1979). n a : h i5 Hopelessness VO1. 18, No. 1, C o u lI 1988, pp. 16-23; Mehdi N. Bahadori, Passive Cooling Systems vol. 238,1978, pp. 144154; 1988, pp. 16-23; N. Bahadori, "Passive Cooling Systems i n Iranian Architecture," Scientific American, v ol. 238,1978, pp. 144154; R.K. Hill, Hill, e n t y , Utilization of Solar Energy For For an an Improved Improved Environment Within Housing For the Humid Tropics CSIRO, 1974). L Utilization o f Solar Energy Environment Within Housing For the Humid Tropics (Victoria, Australia: CSIRO, 1974). L e v s " L. i Demand Developing Countries: A Analysis of Recent Trends, Review of e l Sathaye, A. Ghirardi, and L . S c h i C e m vol. 12, 1987, 1987, pp. pp. 253-281. 253-281. Energy, P P Energy, vol. 12, R h h iIu Energy Use in Cities of the Developing Countries, Annual Review of Energy, 1985, vol. 10, pp. 109-133. 5 3 e r , " E n e rand Stephen e D e m a n d ra g Y Characteristics I Printing Office, o n e 54i a a y a 1986), October 1986), n p. 5. 5. October p. O f f i c e , Y E m 'ln t D e v e l o p i u nen g E S e s a rg C o u n t r i n a n y e r s s E : e n t ,I A g a e h " n

60 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries

Figure 3-10-Electric 3-10-Electric Appliance Appliance Ownership Ownership in Urban Urban Malaysia by Income Group, 1980
100 100 80 8 080 80 8 0<

Figure 3-1 IElectric Figure lElectric Appliance Ownership in Urban Java, 1988 in Urban Java,
, , Penetration by income group, percent ?eriftratioli i ibco_me_grcLup,_percent 2 0 ~ h - ~

Penetration b y income by income group, group, percent percent

J

100

60 40 20

404 0202 00+ 0+ Bottom 3% Bottom 3%

Low Low Lower 20% Lower 20% Middle 2 8% M iddle 2 9% Upper 15% Upper 15% Middle 28% Middle 29% income g roup income group +A i r cconditioners onditioners + + W a t e r hheaters eaters Water + Air Top 5% Top
'- LLi ig gh htt s s ' - F a a nn

Middle Middle Income group Income group +

+ I I rr o on n
+

High High
+ B B& &W W // C o l o r T TV Wa at te r p pu um p + + W

- Refrigerators R This figure shows the rapid penetration of refrigerators, air figure e conditioners, conditioners, and water heaters as household incomes rise. The The f incomes (percentage of households) are in ascending order: r 150-299 i Malaysian dollars per month (M$/month) (3 percent); M$ M$ g 300-599 (20 percent); percent); M$ M$ 600-999 600-999 (28 (28 percent); percent); M$ M$ 1,000-1,999 1,000-1,999 (20 e percent); (29 percent); M$ M$ 2,000-4,999 2,000-4,999 (15 (15 percent); and M$ 5,000+ (5 r percent). a Use in Cities Cities of SOURCE: Jayant Sathaye and Stephen Meyers, Energy "Energy Use of t the Developing Countries," Countries, Annual Review Review of of Energy, vol. vol. 10, o 1965, pp. 109-133. pp. 109-133. r s

R e f r i gR e f r i a ot o rr g etr a

This This figure shows the rapid penetration and and relative relative importance importance within within household purchasing patterns of of lights, lights, TVs, irons, irons, fans, fans, refrigerators, refrigerators, and and water water pumps. pumps. Income Income groups groups (share (share of of househouseholds) holds) in ascending order are: less less than 75 75 (Rupees)/month (Rupees)/month (24 (24 percent), (22 percent), 121-185 121-185 Rp/month percent), 75-120 Rp/month (22 Rp/month (21 percent), 186-295 Rp/month (14 percent), and greater percent), 186-295 greater than than 295 295 Rp/month Rp/month (9 (9 percent). Meyers, "Improving Improving Appliance SOURCE: SOURCE: Lee Schipper and and Stephen Meyers,
Efficiency Efficiency in in Indonesia, Indonesia," Energy Policyforthcoming.

Figure Figure 3-12Refrigerator Ownership in Beijing, China, 1981-1987 1981-1987 Beijing, China,
70 Percentage of households Percentage o f households

Figure Figure 3-13-Reduction in the Real Cost of of Refrigerators Refrigerators Over Time in the United United States
Real cost cost o f refrigerators, Real of 1989=1.00 refrigerators, 1989=1.00 7 1 JJ 7 66 55

60 6 050-

44
4040 1 30 3 020-

33 22 11

10 1
0 0 1980 c 2 1982 1 1984 1984 ! 8 1986 6 0

k k i 9 4 0

1940

1950 1950

1900

,1970

1980

50 50

8 1988 8

100 150 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 200 0 Cumulative production volume volume (millions) (millions) Cumulative production

0 250

This figure shows the rapid penetration of refrigerators into the household sector sector over over just a a 6-year 6-year period. period. SOURCE: Stephen Meyers Meyers and SOURCE: Stephen and JayEmtSathaye, Electricity "Electricity Use Use in in the the
Developing Countries: Changes Changes Since 1970, Developing Countries: 1970," Energy, vol. vol. 14, 14, No. 8, 8, 19S9, 19S9, pp. 435-441, 435-441, table 6.

Over real price refrigerators has Over the the past past 40 40 years, years, the real price of refrigerators has dropped dropped by by almost almost a factor factor of of 5. For developing developing countries, countries, such such price price reductions allow households households to refrigerators at reductions would allow to invest invest in in refrigerators at a a much earlier point much earlier point in in time time than than was was the the case case for for the the United United States States and and other other industrialized industrialized countries countries at at a a similar similar level level of of developdevelopment. ment.
SOURCES: SOURCES: Rick Rick Bahr, Bureau Bureau of of Labor Labor Statistics, Statistics, U.S. U.S. Department Department of of Labor, personal communication, communication, J July 9, 1990 Labor, personal uly 9 , 1 990 (CPI/ refrigerators); refrigerators); John John Chirichiello, National National Science Science Foundation Foundation SRS SRS Computer Computer Bulletin Bulletin Board, Board, personal personal communication,July July 6, 1990 (GNP (GNP deflator, deflator, 1953-19S9); 1953-19S9); U.S. U.S. Department Department of 6, 1990 of Commerce, Bureau of the the Census, Census, "Historical Historical Statistics Statistics of Commerce, Bureau of the the United States: Colonial Colonial Times Times to to 1970" 1970 (Washington, (Washington, DO: DO: U.S. United States: U.S. Government Government Printing Printing Office, Office, 1975), 1975), p. p. E1-12 (GNP (GNP deflator, deflator, 1935-53). 1935-53).

Chapter 3--Energy Services in Developing Developing Countries Countries .661 1 Chapter

Table 3-6-Residential N Nonheating Electricity Table 3-6-Residential onheating E lectricity Intensity in Selected Countries, in Selected Countries, 1970 and 1986 (kilowatthours per (dlowatthours p e r capita)
Country India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . India Indonesia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Pakistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Philippines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Malaysia . . .: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . South Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Argentina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Venezuela . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Taiwan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . West Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Not applicable. Not available or not applicable. SOURCE: Stephen Meyers and Jayant Sethaye, "Electricity Use in the Developing Countries: Changes Since 1970; Energy, vol. 14, No. 8, 1888, 1989, pp. 435-441.

service, I n Brazil, fo for servi ce, particularly particularly in rural areas. In r example, 90 per percent of urban urban h households only 24 example, cent of ouseholds but o nly 24 percent per cent of rural households households have electric electric service.' service.57 The rapidly increasing household appliThe increasing use of h ousehold appli ances an ces in the developing developing countries countries places places additional additional demand on demand on electric electric power power infrastructures infrastructures that are typically capacity. of typi cally already short short of of c apacity. Further, much much of the residential demand comes the comes at peak times. A review of 13 of the largest developing countries for review developing co untries fo r the period growth of the period 1970-86 1970-86 found found that the gr owth rate of ele ctricity consumption consumption was was highest highest in the residenresidenelectricity tial sectoraveraging 9.9 per cent annually, co mtial sectoraveraging percent compared to 8.3 8.3 percent percent annual annual growth growth in the industrial pared to se ctor. 58 Table 3-6 shows shows electricity electricity intensity intensity for for the sector.' Table 3-6 the residential sector in selected developing developing and residential sector in selected and indus industrialized countries. trialized countries. Even Even the the most most advanced advanced develdevelo ping countries countries use, use, on on average, average, j ust a raction oping just a small small f fraction of electricity consumed consumed by by Americans. Americans. ElectricElectricof the the electricity ity consumption by conomically well ity consumption by the the e economically well off off in in devel oping countries, countries, however, however, differs differs little rom developing little f from that found in the United United States States o r Eur ope. that found in the or Europe.

1970 1 970 7 7 8 8 10 10 34 4 3 17 17 37 37 75 75 25 2 90 9 210 158 158 163 163

1986 1 986 25 25 33 3 3 59 5 78 78 11 1 10 184 184 190 190 248 248 261 261 307 307 422 422 557 557 975 975 1,210 1,210 3,050 3,050

The potential for for increased increased energy energy use use for for space space The potential coo ling is is very very large. large. The The United United States States now now uses uses cooling ab out 1,400 1,400 kWh kWh of of electricity electricity per per person person per per year year about fo r space space cooling. cooling.55IIff India India used used this this much much electricelectricfor ity per person person for for space space cooling, cooling, its its total total annual annual ity per ele ctricity generation generation would would have have to to increase increase to to electricity m ore than than five five times times present present levels.'The levels. 56 The hotter hotter more c limate of of India India could could increase increase these these requirements requirements climate still more. more. Re frigerators and and Other Other Appliances Appliances Refrigerators Ele ctricity-using appliances--refrigerators, appliances--refrigerators, teleteleElectricity-using visi ons, washing washing machines, machines, etc.are etc.are rapidly rapidly penepenevisions, trating the residential residential sector sector of of developing developing countries. countries. trating the Fa ctors contributing contributing to to this this explosive explosive growth growth ininFactors c lude urbanization, urbanization, increasing increasing electrification electrification in clude in rural rural areas, economic growth, growth, improved improved access access to to appliappliareas, economic an ces, and and decreasing decreasing real real costs costs of of appliances appliances ances, whi ch make make them them affordable affordable to to a a broader broader segment segment of of which the population than than ever ever before. before. Factors Factors limiting limiting the population applian ce penetration penetration include include the the lack lack of of electric electric appliance

Lights are usually irst applian ce installed Lights are usually the the f first appliance installed when a household household gets gets electric electric service. service. Acquisition Acquisition when a of ther appliances appliances varies varies by household in come and of o other by household income and regi on (see (see figures figures 3-10 3-10 and -1 1). 1). In ans are region and 3 3-1 In India, India, f fans are typi cally among among the the first first appliances appliances acquired, acquired, folfoltypically llowed owed by by televisions televisions and and refrigerators. refrigerators. In I n Brazil, Brazil, even relatively poorer, poorer, newly newly electrified electrified households households even relatively of ten have have televisions televisions and and re frigerators, as as these often refrigerators, these applian ces are are comparatively comparatively inexpensive inexpensive and and are are appliances available secondhand.' available secondhand.59 Re frigerator o wnership is ow in Refrigerator ownership is at at present present quite quite l low in m ost developing developing countries. countries. I In China, for for example, example, most n China, less than 1 1 percent percent of households have have re frigerators, less than of households refrigerators, alth ough refrigerator refrigerator ownership ownership has has been been growing growing although rapidly Beijing (see (see f igure 3-12). 3-12). In rapidly in in Beijing figure I n Brazil, Brazil, 63 63 per cent of of households households have have refrigerators. refrigerators.a In npercent I n co contrast, the United United States, States, 99.7 99.7 percent percent of ousetrast, iin n the of h househ olds have have refrigerators.' refrigerators.G1 holds

and Energy Forecasting Baseline Projection 55G Institute, 1988), pp. pp. 37, 37, 120. as Institute, 1888), 120. R Energy 56Tata Energy Research Institute, TERI Energy Data Data Directory Directory and and Yearbook Yearbook (TEDDY) (TEDDY) 1988 (New Delhi, India:1989), p 73. e s E n e r g y Demand Brazil by Energy Policy, vol. 17, No. 3, p. 256. 57 e a Changes Since 1970, Energy, No. 8,1989, G i 5 8 r c

l and G. De Martin Sb t h 5 9 . 0 Jannuzzi, Jannuzzi, Conservation Conservation Potential of o f Compact Compact Fluorescent Fluorescent Lumps Lumps in in India India andBrazil, andBrazil, LBL-27210 (Berkeley, (Berkeley, CA: CA: e r e. p I Lawrence Berkeley 1989), p. A Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Laboratory, July July 19891, p. 5. 5. t o h e n G S. Electricity Conservation in Brazil: Status Report and Analysis, contractor report prepared for the of Technology 60 D n s a Assessment, March 1990, p. Assessment, March 1990, p. 17. 17. H e Mi t d Administration Housing Characteristics Op. Ci t ., p. o M 61 e t g w a y u iE ar r e t ln e dg t r e a S i y s ,

62 Energy iin n Developing 62 Developing countries countries

The refrigerators refrigerators used used in developing developing countries countries are typically typi cally half half the size size of American American refrigerators, refrigerators, or or smaller. They They are are also also much much less less efficient efficient than the best refrigerators refrigerators now now commercially commercially available available (the (the average refrigerator refrigerator used in the United States is similarly much much less efficient efficient than the best available). available). In Indonesia, Indonesia, most most refrigerators refrigerators are are assembled assembled lolocally c ally from from imported imported components components and, and, in general, general, do do not n ot take advantage advantage of proven proven energy efficiency efficiency features f eatures such such as as rotary rotary compressors compressors and and increased increased insulation.' insulati on. 62 The efficiency efficiency of Brazilian refrigerarefrigerators t ors is is being being improved--electricity improved--electricity consumption consumption by by the average average new new model model was was reduced reduced by 13 13 percent percent between 1986 1986 and and 1989--but 1989--but they are are unable unable to to make use use of of the the very very efficient efficient motor-compressors motor-compressors ( which Brazil Brazil manufactures manufactures and and exports), exports), as as these these (which units cannot cannot tolerate tolerate the the voltage voltage fluctuations fluctuations found found in Brazil!' in Brazil.63 A dvances in in materials materials and and manufacturing manufacturing techtechAdvances niques, coupled with with a a growing growing secondhand secondhand market, market, niques, coupled are forcing down down the the first first cost cost of of refrigerators refrigerators and and are forcing o ther appliances. appliances. The The real real cost cost of of new refrigerators other new refrigerators in the United United States, States, for for example, example, has has plummeted plummeted bb y y in the a factor of of nearly 5 over over the the past past 40 40 years years (see (see f igure a factor nearly 5 figure 3 -13). This This trend trend should should make make many household 3-13). many household applian ces affordable affordable to to a a much much larger larger share appliances share of of devel oping country country populations populations than than was was the the case case developing fo r today's todays industrialized industrialized countries countries at at a a comparable comparable for level of developmenta developmenta generation generation or or more more ago. ago. As As level of a result, energy energy use use could could increase increase significantly significantly a result, above ab ove the the historical historical record record in the near to to mid-term. mid-term. F or example, example, the the average average new new refrigerator refrigerator in For in the the United States uses uses about about 1,000 1,000 kWh kWh of of electricity electricity United States 64 per per year. y e a r . If every household in China had a U.S. -style refrigerator, refrigerator, an an additional additional 200,000 200,000 gigagigaU.S.-style m watth o urs ( G W h ) of ele c tri c ity per year -o r the watthours (GWh) of electricity per year-or the If o utput of ab o ut 50 f ull size co al burning p o wer output of about 50 full-size coal-burning power e v e r plants would be be required, required, at at a a cost cost for for the the power power plantswould y plants alone of of about about $100 $100 billion.' billion. 65 plants alone

The Industrial Industrial Sector Sector The

The industrial sector to The sector typically typically consumes consumes 40 40 t o 60 percent total per cent of of t otal commercial commercial fossil fossil energy energy in developdeveloping countries 3-1);'it also ing countries (see (see table 3 -l);66 it als o makes heavy use of of traditi traditional traded in in use onal biomass biomass fuels-often fuels-often traded commercial co mmercial markets. markets. The The primary energy energy services services required by industry are are pr process heat and and me mechanical required ocess heat chanical drive. These i l l be treated generically drive. These services services w will generically here; report of this OT OTA be here ; in a later rep ort of A study, they will be examined as specific examined specific parts of of integrated industrial processes. pr ocesses.

Firms Firms iin n the industrial sector sector of developing developing co untries today today vary vary widely widely in size size and sophisticasophisticacountries ti on. Atone Atone end end of spectrum are onal tion. of the spectrum are small small traditi traditional f irms that use use relatively relatively energy -inefficient and firms energy-inefficient llow-productivity ow-productivity manufacturing manufacturing technologies.' technologies.67 A t At the ther end odern f irms, of ten with the o other end are are large, large, m modern firms, often with multinati onal parent parent companies, companies, that that have have worldworldmultinational c lass manufacturing manufacturing capabilities. capabilities. class Manu facturing operations operations typically typically f all into into three three Manufacturing fall br oad size size categories-household categories-household o r cottage, cottage, small broad or small w orkshops and and factories, factories, and and large-scale large-scale industry. industry. workshops Over ew smaller mpanies tend o gr ow Over time, time, a af few smaller co companies tend t to grow int o large large ones ones as as the the transport transport in frastructure im into infrastructure impr oves and and incomes incomes rise, rise, increasing increasing the size of proves the size of markets and providing providing economies economies of of scale scale that markets and that turn turn the to larger larger ffirms.' irms.68 the advantage advantage to In many developing developing countries, countries, one-half one-half t o threethreeIn many to quarters of manufacturing manufacturing employment employment is is in housequarters of in household-scale h old-scale establishments, establishments, with the remainder remainder didivided between medium medium and large o perations. Much Much vided between and large operations. of employment in small traditional traditional (and (and of the the employment in the the small largely rural) household household industries industries is is seasonal seasonal labor labor largely rural) available during the nonagriculturally a ctive times available during the nonagriculturally active times of Typically o ne-fourth t oo ne-third of of year. year. Typically one-fourth to one-third of rural rural
n

h o u s e h in Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, o 62L o "Conservation Potential." Conservation Potential. ele d Conservation in Brazil: Status Report and Analysis, Op. Ci t ., 29. i S 63 c h H Residential Equipment Efficiency, of Technology contractor report prepared for the n imHoward S. Geller, "Residential Equipment Efficiency," contractor report prepared for the Office of Technology Assessment, May May 1988.1990, 1988.1990, o p standard. NAECA p C w 5 45 percent factor, no e r ssAssuming: 5 people per household, 45 percent load factor, no transmission and and distribution distribution losses, losses, and and a a capital capital cost cost of of $2,000 $2,000 per peikW of of installed installed ar h capacity. , capacity. d of Trends, 52, i " S J. Satbaye, A. Gbirardi, L. Schipper, "Energy Demand i E 5. table n . n f D e v e often or enterprises not inefficient SOme G Although they are small and often use little modem technology or methods, these manufacturing enterprises are not inefficient in SOme respects. a f l o might p i greatly raise the cost to larger, modern e transport and marketing costs and market size if they should High High and small market size might greatly raise the cost to larger, modern firms if they should try to to enter enter these these small small village village il h markets, making them them the the higher higher cost cost producers. producers. n g markets, making c C o Paper No. 1982. a il6 8 u n t e D e r i e d r e n s : a t,E A
E mi H l S

Chapter 3--Energy Services Countries .663 3 Chapter Services in Developing Developing Countries

3 Table 3-7-Kenyan National Energy Use by Fuel, 1980 (percent of total)a Biomass fuels Biomass fuels Commercial Commercial 7 fuels Wood Charcoal Other Total fuels Energy service service Wood Charcoal Other Total Household . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 46.3 6.6 2.7 58.5 Household 2.9 46.3 6.6 2.7 58.5 Keny 1.0 46.3 . 6.1 2.7 Cooking/heating . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 .0 46.3 6.1 2.7 . 1.7 Lighting . .n .... 1 .7 Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . .a Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . N 0.5 0.2 Other . . . .a ... 0.5 0.2 8.6 14.5 1.0 24.1 Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . t. . .i . . . . 8.6 14.5 1.0 24.1 8.6 5.3 0.3 Large . . . . . . . . . . . . . .o . . .n ... 8.6 5.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 Informal urban urban . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.1 0.6 a . .l . . . . . . . . 9.1 0.1 Informal rural rural . . . . . 9.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.2 Commerce . . . . . . . . . . . .E ...... 0.6 0.5 0.1 1 .2 13.7 13.7 Transportation . . . . . . . . .n ...... 13.7 13.7 2.5 Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . .e ...... 2.5 2.5 28.4 61.3 7.6 2.7 100.0 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . .r . . . . . . 28.4 7.6 61.3 2.7 100.0 g Not - N o t available or not applicable. a a Total national energy consumption .332 million gigajoules; per capita capita power power consumption=658 consumption.658 watts. watts. y SOURCE: Phil O'Keefe, Paul Raskin, and Energy and Steve Bernow (eds.), Energy and Development in Ken vs: Opportunities and Constraints Constraints (Uddevalla. Sweden: Sweden: Beller U . Institute and Scandinavian Institute institute of African Studies, 19&). 194 s n onfarm employment employment in manufacturing.@ manufacturing.@ This This is is e is nonfarm is in biomass bi omass (wood (wood and charcoal). charcoal). Informal Informal rural and an important source source b of income income and and employment employment fo r urban industries use or commercial fuel, but an important of for urban use little o r no no co mmercial f uel, but the rural and and poor poor urban urban sectors.70 the rural sectors.' they account for for about about 10 10 percent percent of otal national national y they account of t total energy rm of omass ( see table -7). F energy use use in in the the fo form of bi biomass (see table 3 3-7). Process Heat Rural applications include include beer beer brewing, brewing, blackblacku Rural applications smithing, crop drying, drying, and and p ottery f iring (see (see table e smithing, crop pottery firing table Many commercial and and industrial industrial processes processes rereMany commercial 3-8). 3 -8). l quire heatranging from from the the low-temperature low-temperature heat heat quire heat-ranging , used to dry dry food food by by cottage cottage industry industry to to the the highhighused to Estimates omass energy r 1 Estimates of of the the use use of of bi biomass energy fo for temperature processes used used by by large large industries industries to to temperature processes 9 industrial processes are are similarly similarly high high elsewhere. elsewhere. industrial processes pr oduce steel steel and and cement. cement. The efficiencies efficiencies of of these these produce The 8 T obacco c uring uses uses 11 percent of uelwood in Tobacco curing 11 percent of all all f fuelwood in pr ocesses are are typically typically mu c h l o wer than th o se fo und processes much lower than those found Il oco s N o rte, Philippines, and represents 17 per c ent 0 'locos Norte, Philippines, and represents 17 percent in industrialized industrialized countries. countries. 71 ( of onal energy of the the nati national energy budget budget in i n Malawi. M a l a w i . ' In In Ind onesia, the the brick, brick, tile, tile, and and lime industry conp Indonesia, lime industry conTraditi onal Process Process Heat Heat Technologies Technologies Traditional 72 sumes roughly 2.5 2.5 percent percent of onal energy energy use. e sumes roughly of nati national use: Bi omass is is used used extensively extensively iin both traditional traditional Beer brewing uses uses 14 14 percent percent of of the otal fuelwood fuelwood Biomass n both r B the t total 2eer brewing rural and m o re m o dern industry in devel o ping co nsumed in Ouagad o ug o u, Burkina Fas o .73OverOverrural and more modern industry i n developing c consumed i n Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. co untries. In Kenya, fo r example, large industry all, bi o mass f uels supply up t o 40 per c ent of countries. I n Kenya, e for example, large industry all, biomass fuels supply up to 40 percent of the the a cco unts fo r ab o ut 8.6 per c ent of nati o nal energy use industrial energy used used in Indonesia, 28 28 percent percent in n percent of national energy use accounts for about 8.6 industrial energy in Indonesia, in in the form form of of commercial commer fuels, and and 5.6 5.6 percent percent of of Thailand, 17 percent percent in and similarly t cial fuels, in the Thailand, 17 in Brazil, Brazil, and similarly large large t otal national national energy energy consumption in in the the form form of of ffractions ractions in many other other countries.' countries.74 o consumption total in many f and t in Developing Countries, Economic 6 9 p. 245, 245, table table A2, cited Donald W. Jones, Energy Requirements for Rural Development Development (Oak Ridge, T TN: 28, D No. 2, 2, 1980, 1980, p. 28, No. A2, cited in Donald W. Jones, Energy Requirements f o r Rural (Oak Ridge, N : Oak O a k Ridge Ridge National National o Laboratory, June 1988). 1988). Laboratory, June e n t n i and Rural Small-Scale in (Geneva: International Labor Office, 70 a s 19s4). 19s4). E A l n y The Demand for Woodfuels by Cottage Industries in of Norte, Philippines,Energy, vol. 9, pp. 1-13, 1984; 71 n d VillageIndustries vs. Savannah Forests, i n No. 131,1981, 131,1981, pp. 24-29; E.M. Mnzava, "Fuelwood and Mnzava, "Villagelndustries )vs. Savannah Forests," UNASYLVA, vol. vol. 33, 33, No. pp. 24-29; and Charcoal Charcoal in in Africa," E . ea r W. P. Hall Applied Science Publishers, Ltd., 1980); Mwandosyasnd W. n Paley, P. Chartier and D.O. Hall (eds.), Energy fromBromars (London: Applied Science Publishers, Ltd., 1980); MJ. Mwandosyasnd M i . Luhanga, L . ' s o Energy Tanzania NJ: Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Princeton University, and Dar-Es-S_ C DemandStructures in
s , .

Energy H DemandStructures in Rural Tanzania (Princeton, NJ: Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Princeton University, and Dar-Es-S_ n h Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Dar-Es-Salaam, 1984). Tanzania y a . u Energy Sector Management Assistance m Energy Improvement in the Tile and Lime Industries 7 2 n l D a March 1987. on on e Java," March 1987. Wp d at m a rn of 1981, pp. o 7r 3 M e na t , l d H a et al., Energy Strategies for Developing Countries (B al t i m o r e, MD: P. n 7 4 o B T en r Jo f d h a ti k S y E e l n C L D e . c k h e V

64 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries Countries

f Rue!wood Table 3-8-Annual 3-8-Annual Consumption Consumption o of Fuelwood and Charcoal in Kenya by Rural Cottage Industries, GJ/Capita
Industry

a Charcoal e Fuelwood !wood C h a rcoal

Brewing . . . . 7 1.07 Brewing . . . . . . .1. . . . . .. . . . . 0 0 0.50 Construction wood . . . . 0 . . . ... . . 5 Butchery ..........2 ... Butchery . . . . . . .0 40 . 2 4 Restaurants . . . . . . 0 7 0.17 0 . . . . . .. . . . 1 .. Baking Baking . . . . . .0. . . . . .. . . . . . .1. . . . 3 0 . 1 3 Brick . . . . . . . . . .0 .. Brick firing . . . . . . 0 6 0.06 Blacksmithing . . . . . . .0. . . . . .. . . 0 Crop drying . . . . . . 0 . . . . . .. . . . . 0. . 4 0.04 Tobacco curing . . . . . . 0. . . .. . . . . 0 40.04 Fish curing . . . . . . 0 . . . . . . . . . .0 .. 20 . 0 2 Total . . . . . . .2 . . . . . . . . . . .2. . . 7 2.27 0

. 0

.
0 ..06 06 0 0. 40 4

0.06

SteelIn Steel In the OECD OECD countries, countries, the steel industry industry typically typi cally consumes consumes about about one-fifth one-fifth of the energy used in the industrial se sector.' Developing used ctor.75 Devel oping countries countries such China. India, and Brazil dev devote similar su ch as China, ote a similar share-18 share -18 percent, percent, 23 percent, percent, and 20 percent, percent, respectivelyy respe ctively 76--of industrial commercial energy consumption to top producers sumpti on t o steel production. production. The t op 10 pr oducers m account for 90 per percent of the c crude steel made made a cco r about about 90 cent of rude steel o funt fo in developing devel world; many other other developing developing iinnthe d u s oping world; co untries produce little little or or no no steel. steel. countries t r i a l produce c Per o -cm apita steel steel consumption consumption increases increases rapidly rapidly as as Per-capita m e national tends t to nati o nalrinfrastructures infrastructures are built, and then then tends o c i a the l market saturate the market and level level off come saturate off at higher in income 77 levels see f igure 3 -14). A levels' figure 3-14). A similar similar trend trend has has been been e n((see 78 fo und fo r a wide variety of materials. Simply put, found for a wide variety of materials.' Simply put, e r there a to number of steel-intensive cars, there is limit t o the number of steel intensive c ars, g y re f rigerat o rs, washing ma c hines, buildings, bridges, refrigerators, washing machines, buildings, bridges, c pipelines, etc., a a person person needs. needs. Eventually, Eventually, conconpipelines, etc., o sumpti o n levels tend t o plateau at repla c ement sumption levels tend to plateau a t replacement n levels. When for basic levels. When these these wants fo r basi c materials are ffulfilled, ulfilled, people people tend tend to to spend spend incremental incremental income income o n higher higher value-added value-added materials-such materials-such as those on as those with a high-quality high-quality finishor finish--or o n less less materialmaterialwith a on intensive -added co nsumer g oods. intensive but but higher higher value value-added consumer goods.

. 1 0.16 6

Not Not available or not applicable. a This does does not not include include the the losses losses in converting converting wood wood to charcoal. charcoal. a This SOURCE: Phil O'Keefe, Paul Raskin, and Steve Steve Bernow (eds.)Energy and Development in Kenya: Opportunities and and Constraints Constraints (UddeInstitute and Scandinavian Scandinavian institute Institute of valla, Sweden: Boljer institute African Studies, Studies, 19S4). 19S4).

The efficiency with with which which these these tasks tasks axe axe done done The efficiency c an be be quite quite low low (see (see table table 3-9). 3-9). On On close close examinaexaminacan ti on, however, however, the the performance performance of of traditional traditional biomassbiomasstion, f ueled technologies technologies is is often often found found to to be be carefully carefully fueled o ptimized in in terms terms of of efficiency, efficiency, capital, capital, and and labor, labor, optimized given existing materials materials and and technological technological concongiven existing straints. An example example of of this is the the traditional traditional brick brick straints. An this is kiln in Sudan, Sudan, which which holds holds as as many many as as 100,000 100,000 kiln in bri cks at at a a time time and and gains gains economies economies through through size size bricks and other design design factors. factors. To To improve improve the the performperformand other an ce of of these these technologies technologies usually usually requires requires the the input input ance of modem materials materials and and technologies, technologies, including including of modem m odern means means of of measuring measuring efficiencies. efficiencies. modern M odern Large-Scale Large-Scale Industry Industry Modern M odern large-scale large-scale industries industries in in developing developing councounModern tries are modeled modeled after after their their counterparts counterparts in in industriindustritries are alized countries, but but they they are are often often operated operated a at alized countries, t signi ficantly l ower e fficiencies. A A few few energy significantly lower efficiencies. energyintensive materials-steel, cement, cement, chemicals chemicals (espe(espeintensive materials-steel, c ially fertilizer), fertilizer), and and paper-account paper-account for for much much of of the cially the energy used by by industry industry (see (see table table 3-10). 3-10). The The total total energy used energy used to to produce produce these these materials materials will will increase increase energy used rapidly as developing developing countries countries build build their their national national rapidly as infrastructures. in frastructures.
Y. and Oscar de 75 technical paper, 22, 1984. M technical paper, No. No. 22, 1984.

The level of of per -capita steel nsumption needed needed The level per-capita steel co consumption t o provide provide a ce has also been ced o ver to a given given servi service has also been redu reduced over time through a variety of chnological improveimprovetime through a variety of te technological ments, including higher higher weight-to-strength weight-to-strength steel steel ments, including all oys, more more efficient efficient motors motors and and engines, engines, better better alloys, design, and the the substitution substitution of of alternative alternative products products design, and su ch as as high-performance high-performance plastics. plastics. For For example, example, the the such tensile increased fo urfold between between tensile strength strength of of steel steel increased fourfold 79 1910 and 1980. 1980. 1910
79 Overall steel production production has been increasing increasing by Overall steel has been by a a little over 7 percent per oping little over 7 percent per year year in in the the devel developing relatively constant constant in co untries, while while remaining remaining relatively countries, in the the industrialized countries. A At current rates, rates, steel steel proproindustrialized countries. t current du ction by by developing developing countries countries will vertake that duction will o overtake that in in the untries early entury. the industrialized industrialized co countries early in in the the next next c century.

The efficiency of oduction in The energy energy efficiency of steel steel pr production in the the devel oping countries countries varies varies widely. widely. I In some cases, cases, developing n some it has significantly significantly lagged lagged that that of of the industrialized it has the industrialized

KOPS , Energy Efficiency in the Steel Industry With Emphasis on Developing Countries, World Bank

a u 76ibid ti Per-capita steel Per-capita steel consumption increases approximately approximately linearly linearly with with per-capita per-capita income income up up to to several several thousand thousand dollars. dollars. c e Ross, 7 Y8 pp. 99-144. Pp. M 99-144. 1 t for Evolution of the Consumption of Steel (New eb 7 9 o u E e r no c t i no en H r

12,1987,

Chapter 3--Energy Services in Developing 6 5 Chapter Developing Countries Countries 65

Table 3-9-Efficiency of Fuel Use In In Traditional Traditional (Developing Countries) and Modern (Industrial Countries) Commercial and Industrial Operations
Estimated efficiency of Estimated traditional technology traditional technology (percent) (percent) 15-19 15-19 15-17 15-17 0.3-0.7 0.3-0.7 0.5 0.5 2.9 2.9 12-19 12-19 16 16 3 3 2-3 2-3 8-16 8-16 6.4 6.4 5-10 5-10 3 3 Estimated efficiency f Estimated efficiency o of modern modern technology technology in in U.S. U.S. (percent) (percent)

Activity Cooking Beer brewing Beer brewing Tobacco drying drying Tea drying drying Baking Baking Fish smoking smoking Brick firing

Location Location West Africa West Africa Burkina Faso Burkina Faso Burkina Faso Burkina Faso Tanzania Tanzania Tanzania Tanzania Sudan Sudan India India Guatemala Guatemala Tanzania Tanzania Sudan Sudan India India Uganda Uganda Indonesia Indonesia

50-60 50-60
79 79 0.6 0.6

43 43

6-11 6-11

Foundry work work NOTE: Not applicable or not available. SOURCE: For For complete complete list of sources, see see app. 3-13. 3-B.

40 40

y Table 3-10-Energy 3-10-Energy Consumption Consumption b by industry, 1980 Chinese industry,

Final energy use use Final energy Percent Exajoules Exajoules Percent

Sector Basic metals (iron and steel) . . . . . . . . . . Chemicals (fertilizer) (fertilizer) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Building materials (cement, (cement, brick tile) . . . Machine building . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Textiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Food, beverages, tobacco . . . . . . . . . . . . . Pulp and paper paper. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

2.38 2.38 2.23 2.23 1.44 1.44 0.82 0.82 0.64 0.64 0.38 0.38 0.25 0.25 1.12 1.12 9.26 9.26

25.7 25.7 24.1 24.1 15.6 15.6 8.8 8.8 6.9 6.9 4.1 4.1 2.7 2.7 12.1 12.1 100.0 100.0

The use of of cement cement is is expected expected t o increase increase rapidly as The use to rapidly as nati onal infrastructures infrastructures of of roads, roads, bridges, bridges, buildings, buildings, national et c., are are built. built. In In general, general, per-capita per-capita consumption consumption of etc., of c ement in creases approximately approximately linearly cement increases linearly with with in inco me up up to to several several thousand thousand dollars, dollars, and come and then then saturates and levels levels off incomes (see (see f igure saturates and off at at higher higher incomes figure 3 -15). Despite ement 3-15). Despite the the energy energy intensity intensity of of c cement pr oduction, it one of -intensive production, i t is is one of the the least least energy energy-intensive construction in its f final form of co nstruction materials when in inal fo rm of co ncrete/aggregate (see (see tables tables 3-11 3-11 and and 3-12). 3-12). concrete/aggregate The value of ement is ow compared compared t o its The value of c cement is quite quite l low to its weight. Because of because the weight. Because of this this and and because the raw raw materials for cementlimestone, cementlimestone, various various clay clay min materials for minerals, and silica silica sand-are sand-are widely widely available, available, cement cement erals, and is usually produced produced relatively oint of is usually relatively near near its its p point of use. use. In the United r tru ck In the United States, States, the the maximum maximum range range fo for truck shipments of cement cement is is about about 300 300 km. developing shipments of km. In In developing co untries, where where the the transport transport infrastructure infrastructure is less countries, is less well developed, economical economical transport transport distances distances are well developed, are of ten less. less. In r example, 150 t o 200 often In China, China, fo for example, 150 to 200 km km is is the typical limit ort; iif f transp ort o ver llonger onger the typical limit of of transp transport; transport over distan ce is is needed, needed, the the construction construction of new c ement distance of a a new cement plant local area be co nsidered.82 Thus, plant in in the the local area will will be considered.' Thus, as as a result of of inadequate inadequate transport transport in frastructures, a result infrastructures, c ement plants are often often small small and fficement plants are and relatively relatively ine inefficient. c ient. The energy required required to to produce produce cement cement varies varies The energy widely the type type of oduction process, process, quality quality widely with with the of pr production
Energy Considerations of Classical and New Iron- and

SOURCE: World Bank, China: The Energy Energy Sector(Washington, DC: 1985).

co untries. Integrated Integrated steel steel plants plants in in India India and and China China countries. c urrently use, use, on on average, average, 45 45 to to 53 53 gigajoules gigajoules (GJ) (GJ) currently per ton of of crude crude steel steel produced; produced; integrated integrated steel steel per ton plants in the the United United States States and and Japan Japan use use half half as plants in as mu ch energy energy .80 .80 Some Some developing developing countries countries have have much made significant strides strides to to reduce reduce energy energy use use in steel made significant in steel pr oduction. The The Brazilians, Brazilians, for for example, example, cut cut energy energy production. co nsumption from from 34 34 GJ GJ to to 27 27 GJ GJ per per ton ton of of crude crude consumption 81 steel between 1975 1975 and and 1979, steel between 1 9 7 9 ,and the South K rean steel steel industry industry is is among among the the most most efficient efficient in in Korean 8o 1 the world. a n world. d t h e
S

sumes 2 to to 6 6 percent, percent, and and sometimes sometimes more, more, of of the the sumes 2 co mmer c ial energy used in devel o ping co untries. commercial energy used in developing countries. The

CementThe cement industry typically conCement

c e m 80maurice Y. Meunier and and Oscar Oscar de de Bruyn Kops, op. op. cit., cit., footnote footnote 75; 75; Sven E k e I e n t Y. Steel-Making Technology, Energy, 12, No. No. 10/11, Steel-Making 0 Technology," Energy, vol. vol. 12, 10/11, 1987, 1987, pp. pp. 1153-1168. 1153-1168. 1 iS t m n d1 ) , " E n and de C o n s op. e r g y i d e footnote r a t 75. i o n s f C l aProducts, s sFebruary i c a l Rock 32. anr s u to 82u T a n d i aop r y N e w c i e I r o n Y t ng, y a n d . C " p i

66 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries

Figure 3-14-Per-Capita Steel Consumption Figure Consumption v. GNP for Various Countries
10004 10004 J

Per capita steel Per steel consumption, consumption, kilogram

. .

100 100

. . .

.8 :

9 .

,m .
9

. .

1 10 0
w

9m .
. .

11 1I

5 5

1 0 10 1 5 GNP (thousand 1984 $U.S.) SUS.) GNP

15

20

The saturation of the steel market at higher income income levels levels is is readily readily seen seen in in linear linear or or logarithmic logarithmic plots. plots.
It is shown herein a semi-log plot so as to better better display display both low-end and high-end data. data. Each Each data data point point represents a a country, country, 1985/86 (New NY: 1988), 1988), pp. 550-552, table 130. SOURCE: United United Nations, Nations, Statistical Yearbook 1985/86 (New York, York, NY: 550
552, t a b l 3-15-Per-Capita e 1 3 0 . Cement Production v. GNP for Various Countries Figure Figure

Per-capita cement production, kilogram 10000 1 0 0 0 0 je r c . 1000 1a . . . p . i . t a c e m1 . ie. 10 n:. t 9 p r .. / I 1 oI I 1 d o 5 10 0 5 1 0 1 5 15 2 0 20 u Per-capita GNP 1984 $U.S.) Per-capita G N P ((thousands, thousands, 1 9 8 4 St.I.S.) c The saturation of the the cement cement market market at linear or t of The saturation at higher higher income income levels levels is is readily readily seen seen in in linear or logarithmic logarithmic plots. plots. It is shown shown herein a semi-log semi-log plot plot so so as as to It is herein a to better better display display both both low-end low-end and and high-end high-end data data Each Each data data point point i represents a country. country. represents a o
m
-

SOURCE: United Nations, Nations, Statistical Yearbook 1985/86, (New NY: 1988), 1988), pp. 524-526, table SOURCE: United (New York, York, NY: pp. 524-526, table 116. 116.

n , k i l

Chapter 3--Energy Services in Developing 6 7 Chapter Developing Countries 67

Table 3-1 3-1 IAverage lAverage Energy Intensities of Building Materials (megajoules Materials (megajoules per kilogram)
Material

Table 3-12Energy Intensities Intensities of of End End Products Table Using Alternative Building Materials Using (megajoules per per square square meter) meter) (megajoules
Structure Structure C o n c rConcrete e t e Steel p h a l t B rBrick ick Steel A sAsphalt

y intensity Energy intensity

600 600 Building wall . . . . .4. . .0 400 0 Building . ., . 0 4,000 Bridge m2) . . . 4 Bridge (per n%) 00 8,0 00 8,000 3,000 Roadway (per 3,000 Roadway (per m2).... 800 a Not applicable or not available. Not applicable available. ). SOURCE: SOURCE: Mogens H. H. Fog and 16shore L. L. Nadkarni, World Bank, Energy "Energy and Fuel Substitution in the the Cement Cement Industry Industry With With 8 0 0Effidency and

1 8 0.18 Concrete aggregate . . . . . . . 0 . . . . . . .. . . . . . Concrete . . . . . . . .0 Concrete . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .8. . . . . 0 0.80 Brick and Brick and tile tile. . . . . . . . . .3. . . . . . . . . ....... 7 3.7 Cement . . . . . . . . . . . 5. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .9 5.9 Plate glass glass . . . . . . . .2 . . . . . . .5 . . . . . . . .. . . . 0 25.0 Steel . . . . . . . . .2. . . . . . . .8 Steel . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . 0 28.0
SOURCE: Mogeos H. Fog and Kishore L. Nadkarni, World Bank, Energy "Energy Efficiency and Fuel Substitution in the Cement Industry With With
Emphasis on Developing Developing Countries," Countries, technical paper No. 17, 1983. 1983.

Emphasis on on Developing Developing Countries, Countries," Technical Paper PaperNo. No. 17, 17, Emphasis 1988. 1988.

of raw materials, plant management and operating operating co conditions, nditions, and and other other factors. factors. The The performance performance of c ement plants plants iin developing countries countries also also varies varies cement n developing widely and and is is difficult difficult to to characterize characterize simply. simply. Many Many plants approach the the efficiency efficiency of of th ose in the plants approach those industrialized countries, depending depending on on when when they they industrialized countries, were built and and the the conditions conditions under under which which they they are are were built o perated. Others Others show show significant significant inefficienciesinefficienciesoperated. using 25 to to 50 50 percent percent more more energy energy than fficient using 25 than e efficient plants of the the same same type type and and with the same same quality quality of of plants of with the raw materials input!' input.83 raw materials

countries motor co untries is to to be increased, increased, modem modem m otor drive te technologies chnologies and supporting supporting infrastructures infrastructures must must be be made available at affordable made available at affordable costs. costs. As As these these technoltechnolo gies are are adopted, adopted, energy energy use-especially use-especially electricity electricity ogies will increase rapidly. rapidly. will increase

Mechanical Drive
Traditional Traditi onal Drive Drive Power Power

A persons power power o utput and energy efficiency efficiency A person's output and energy are low. The The basal basal metabolism metabolism of on is out are low. of a a pers person is ab about 100 ; fo r each each unit ork o utput, an onal 100 watts watts; for unit of of w work output, an additi additional 4 o5 5 units units of d energy nsumed.84 4t to of foo food energy must must be be co consumed." W orking 8 8 hours hours a a day day at utput, Working at a a rate rate of of 50 50 watts watts of of o output, a person consumes consumes about about 15 15 megajoules megajoules (MJ) (MJ) of of a person energy and produces produces 1.5 1.5 MJ MJ of of w ork o utput, for for a energy and work output, a daily (24-hour) average average efficiency efficiency of of 10 10 percent." percent.85 daily (24-hour) Mu ch of of the the labor labor expended expended in developing councounMuch in developing tries is not not dire ctly productive, productive, but r tries is directly but is is instead instead fo for enabling activities-that activities-that is, is, domestic domestic chores. chores. "enabling' Hauling rom the village well an take o Hauling water water f from the village well c can take 0.5 0.5 t to 3 hours per per household household each each day, day, with with a correspond3 hours a corresponding energy input rm of d of o 3.0 ing 86 energy input in in the the fo form of foo food of 0.3 0.3 t to 3.0 MJ. poorest households households must must of ten go go f urther M.J.' The The poorest often further and thus have less available time t to and o haul water, resulting ch l ower water resulting in in mu much lower water usage usage even even with with greater ffort (see (see table table 3-13). 3-13). Water Water could could instead instead greater e effort be otor and o the ome using be pumped pumped by by a am motor and piped piped t to the h home using j ust 3 o5 5 percent percent as ch energy or ele ctricity just 3t to as mu much energy .87 .87 F For electricity pri ced at $0.10 per per k Wh, the the dire ct energy cost fo r priced at $0.10 kWh, direct energy cost for

The productivity of of people people in in many many rural rural and and poor poor The productivity urban areas of of developing developing countries countries is is now now limited limited urban areas by their reliance reliance on on human human and animal muscle muscle power power by their and animal fo r water water pumping, pumping, grain grain grinding, grinding, agricultural agricultural for a ctivities, transportation, transportation, and and small small industry. industry. When When activities, o nly muscle muscle power power is is available, available, many many hours hours can can be be only spent on enabling a ctivities, su ch as spent simply simply on "enabling" activities, such as hauling water or or grinding grinding grain, grain, rather rather than than on on hauling water dire ctly economically economically productive productive activities. activities. ProducProducdirectly tive activities themselves themselves are are sharply sharply limited limited by by the the tive activities e fficiency and and total total output output of of muscle muscle power. power. IIf f the the efficiency pr oductivity of of people people in in rural rural areas areas of of developing developing productivity

Substitution in the on 83 (Washington, DC: World 1983), see figure 5-1, p. 39. (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1983), see figure 5-1, p. 39. M 1S a Vicious Of 84 o g Energy Intake and Low Human Output? July 1984 Energy Research Group, International Development Center, W Energy Intake and Low Human Output?" July 1984(Mimeo), Christopher Hurst, Energy Research Group, International DevelopmentResearCh Center, en Energy in The Changing Canada, Human and Animal Energy Ottawa, Canada, "Human and in Transition: Transition: The Changing Role Role of of Metabolized Metabolized Energy Energy in in Economic Economic Development Development" June June 19S4 1954 . s EnergyUseInRural India, Roger (Mimeo); Roger Revelle, "EnergyUselnRural India," Science, Science, vol. vol. 192, 192, June June 4, 4, 1976, 1976, pp. pp. %9-975. %9-975. E H see G.M.O.Maloly et d Energetic Cost " F o r a catmtercase, see et al, "Energetic Cost of of Carrying CarryingLoads: Have Have African African Women Women Discovered Discovered an an Economic Economic Way? Way?" Nature, Nature, m vol. 319, Feb. Feb. 20, 20, 1986, 1986, pp. pp. 668-669. 668-669. vol.. 319, u to water was found to vary 0.5 hour to more 3 of F In a study of Gujurat, Indi nto 800 Energy Use 100 oto 100 Household washing washing takes takes 4.5 4.5 to to 6.3 6.3 hours hours per per week week and and is isas strenuous strenuous as as hauling hauling water. water. Girja GirjaSharan (etI.), (et1),Energy Use in in Rural a 800 kcal/day. Household d cit.,t footnote 37. , t op. h ecit., i m e 37. Gujurat, op. footnote g s tithed for water, @.id@, rt is e often q uargued i r tithe e r i soc a o t o important element of village life and should not be tampered with naively. One notes, however, that village women spend 10 to important element of village life and should not be tampered with naively. One notes, however, that village women spend 10 to 12 12 hours hours per day day in in such such i n f e t they c would activities. Surely activities. Surely they would not not object object to to such such social social interaction interaction while while having having a a leisurely leisurely eup cup of of tea tea instead. instead. , ah d E l w i n t e ar a c t t i o n K n p e r or v i d e ie
w a

68 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries

Table 3-13-Average 3-13-Average Daily Daily Household Household Consumption Consumption of Water, Gujurat, India
Consumption Consumption (liters (liters per day)
60 60 126 126 134 134 161 161 256 256

class class Landless . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Landless Less than Less than 2 2 ha ha.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Less than Less than 2-4 2-4 ha. ha.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Less than Less than 4-10 4-10 ha. ha.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . More than 0 ha More than 1 10 ha. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

SOURCE: Girja Energy Use in Rural Gujurat (New Delhi: Ghia Sharan (cd.), Energy Oxford and BH Publishing Co., 1987).

the typi cal 1.5 1.5 hours hours spent spent hauling hauling water water would would be be typical just one-fifth one-fifth of of a a penny penny ($0.002). ($0.002). Thus, Thus, lack lack of just a ccess to to capital capital has has significant significant impacts impacts on on labor labor and and access energy use. energy use.

ffraction raction of rice rice processed processed by hand dropped dropped from from to perhaps 80 percent percent t o less than 40 percent percent between between 89 1971 and 1971' This freed from 1971 and 1973. This freed many women women f rom the chore i t also c hore of grinding grain; grain; it also cost cost many of the poorest of income p oorest households households an important important source source of income earned by hand pounding for earned pounding rice rice fo r wealthier househouseholds.' The introduction mechanical h olds.90 The introduction of of me chanical rice rice milling in Bangladesh in the early 1980 1980s was estimated t to in s was o displace displa ce an additional additional 100,000 100,000 or or more more poor poor women women per rom their traditi onal part -time employment employment per year year f from traditional part-time at hand pounding pounding rice. rice. For For the poorest, poorest, landless landless at hand w omen, this this represented represented r oughly hal f of women, roughly half of their their annual annual in come and and 15 15 percent percent of amily income!' income. 91 income of f family The power o utput and efficiency efficiency of dra ft animals The power output draft are similarly limited limited i in performing typical typical f arm are similarly n performing farm tasks. A typical typical 500-kg 500-kg o xo r bu ffalo has tasks. A ox or buffalo has a a basal basal 92 metab olic rate rate of of about about 1,000 1,000 watts. metabolic w a t t sA .verage net o utput over a a 6-hour 6-hour working working day day is is typically typically 250 250 output over 9 2 watts, and the net e ff i c ien c y while w o rking is 29 t o watts, and the net efficiency while working is 29 to Average n e t 39 percent, which which drops drops to to about about 10 cent o ver the 39 percent, 10 per percent over the 24 -hour w orking day. day. A A typical typical dra ft animal 24-hour working draft animal might might w ork j ust 40 obs work just 40 days days per per year year as as many many of of the the j jobs fo rmerly done done by by draft draft animals-pumping animals-pumping water, water, formerly c rushing sugar cane, hauling goods t o market -have crushing sugar cane, hauling goods to market-have already been taken ver by odern m otor-driven already been taken o over by m modern motor-driven equipment. At ch a ow rate equipment. A t su such a l low rate of o f usage, usage, the the e fficiency of of a ft animal animal is is 2 2 percent percent o r less less on on an efficiency a dra draft or an annual basis. These annual These efficiencies efficiencies are raised somewhat somewhat when s dung, when the the value value of of the the animal animal's dung, milk, milk, meat, meat, and and leather is included!' leather included.93 The ow power power o utput and fficiency of ft The l low output and e efficiency of a a dra draft animal severely restri cts the potential w ork that an animal severely restricts the potential work that c can

Similarly, in Africa, Africa, to to pound pound maize maize or or millet millet by by Similarly, in hand can take take 1 1 to to 2 2 person-hours person-hours per per day day per per hand can h ousehold. 88 This requires requires perhaps perhaps 1 1 MJ MJ of of energy energy household."This ( at 300 300 watts watts of of input ). A A typical typical motor-driven motor-driven mill (at input). mill c an do do the the same same job job in in a a minute minute or or less, less, with with an an can energy expenditure of of less less than than 0.2 0.2 MJ--or MJ--or 0.05 0.05 energy expenditure k Wh. This This is is less less than than one-half one-half of ($0.005) kWh. of a a penny penny ($0.005) w orth of of dire ct energy energy (at (at $0.10 $0.10 per per kWh) kWh) for for 1 1 to to 2 2 worth direct h ours worth worth of of hard hard labor. labor. The The capital capital costs costs in in these these hours cases, c ases, of of course, course, are are a serious serious barrier to to investment; investment; but with the the time time saved, saved, the the person person might might have have done done but with s omething more more productive, productive, such such as as make make handihandisomething crafts c rafts for for market. market. The advantages o of mechanical processing processing o of The advantages f mechanical f grains has led t o a rapid transiti o n in many parts of grains has led to a rapid transition in many parts of the world. I In Java, Indonesia, Indonesia, for for example, example, the the the world. n Java,

P. Agricultural Mechanization and the Evolution of Farming in 88 (Baltimore and London: Johns Pr (Baltimore and Johns Hopkins Hopkins University University Press Press for for the the World WorldBank, 1987); 1987); Mead Mead T. T.Cain, The "The Economic Economic Activities Activities of of Children Children in in a a Village Village Population andDevelopmentReview, andDevelopmentReview, vol. vol. 3, 3, No. No. 3, 3, September September 1977, in ab in Bangladesh," Population 1977, pp. pp. 201-227; 201-227; A.S. Bhatia, ChoosingTeehniques: "ChoosingTeehniques: Handpoending V. An Economic Papers, Papers, vol. vol. 17, 1, hu V. Machine-Milling Machine -Milling of of Rice: Rice: A n Indian Indian Case, Case," Oxford Economic 17, No. No 1 , March M a r d i 1965, 1965, pp. pp. 147-157; 147-157; Margaret Margaret Haswell, Energy Energy for for Subsistence P Subsistence (London: MacMillan MacMillan Press, Press, Ltd., Ltd., 1981). 1981). of in the Third i8 9 n World Johns Hopkins C . (Baltimore, World (Baltimore, MD: MD: Johns Hopkins University University Press, Press, 1984), 1984), pp. pp. 278-288. 278-288. See See also also A.S. Bhalla, Choosing "Choosing Techniques: Techniques: Handpounding Handpounding V. V. g Machine-Miliing of An P Machine-Miliing of Rice: Rice: A n Indian Indian Case, Case," op. op. cit., cit., footnote footnote 88. 88.

a e Collier et al., A in Carl K. and John M. Development in Third (Baltimore, l9 t Johns Johns Hopkins MD: MD: Hopkins University University Press, Press, 1984). 1984). iM e is i t o , r lo r Working Paper No. 731, 1985. Staff Y T Working Paper No. 731,1985. li v 9 2 i ia e of body body weight weight (2 (2 I/m/kg). Aanimal . weighing use an P m traveled per kg of weighing 500 500 kg and and walking at at 1 1 m/s mis will will use an extra extra kW, kW, approximately doubling doublingits its resting resting a L s metabolic rate. Most agricultural animals move at 0.6 to 1.1 m/s. . use more energy for carrying loads than they do for carrying their own et m metabolic rate. Most agricultural animals move at 0.6 to 1.1 mAnimals use more energy for carrying loads than they do for carrying their own weight, m . r from ranging 2.6 to 4.2 J/m/kg. See alao B 6, ranging from 2.6 to 4.2 J/m/kg. See alacA,R. Rae, Rae,"Bioenergetics of of Bullock Bullock Power,Energy, Power,"Energy, vol. vol. 9, 9, No. No 6 , 1984; 1984; N.H. Ravindranath etal., al., AnIndian "AnIndian e L S Village ir Village. Part Main Observations, op. Village Agricultural EcosystemCase Study Study of of Ungra Village. Part I. I M a i n Observations," op cit., footnote footnote 5; 5; Amulya Kumar N. N. Reddy, Reddy, AnIndian "AnIndian L Agricultural . c g VillageAgricultural EcosystemCase Study Study ofUngraVillage. ofUngraVillage. PartII. Part11. Discussion Discussion" op. op. cit., cit., footnote 5, They They estimate theefficiency of anIndianbullock a , C as 8.7 time, or o o as 8.7 when working working full full time, or if if working working just just 20 20 days days per per year year as as observed, observed, the the bullock bullock would would have have an anoverall overall efficiency efficiency of of0.5 0.5 percent. w percent when o t t r t C l a , Biomass, vol. e h 93/4.H.Ravindranath and H.N.Chanakya,"Biomass Based Based Energy System System fora fora South South Indian Indian Village, Village," Biomass, vol. 9, 9, No. No. 3, 3, 1986, 1986, pp. pp. 215-233. 215-233. ln a nitrogen manure for Without the efficiency is 2.0 Draft animal efficiency efficiency is is 3.5 3.5 pettent, including n animal o Draft including nitrogen in manure for fertilizer. Without nitrogen, the efficiency is 2.0 percent. id n c k e m d e r a H a o e r a n f t i n

Chapter 3--Energy Services in Developing Countries 6 9 Chapter Developing Countries 69

Table 3-14-industrial Electricity Electricity End U Use s e in Brazil, 1984

Percent of Percent of total total industrial electricity industrial electricity Industry c o n s u m p t consumption i o n 20.9 Nonferrous metals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.9 12.4 Iron and steel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.4 Chemicals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.9 11.9 9.0 Food and beverage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.0 6.5 Paper and pulp . '....... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 5.6 Mining/pelletization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 5.3 Textiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 4.8 4.8 Steel alloys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 Ceramics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 2.7 Cement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7 17.0 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.0 Total a . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 100.0
Not Not available or not applicable. a Total industrial industrial electricity electricity use use was was 105 105 terawatthours. a Total SOURCE: Howard S. S. Geller, "Electricity Electricity Conservation in Brazil: Status Report and Office of and Analysis, Analysis," contractor report report prepared for the Office of Technology Technology Assessment, March March 1990. 1990.

Fraction of subsector Fraction subsector total for each each end use (percent) (percent) Motor Motor 32 32 11 79 79 6 6 87 87 50 50 89 89 7 7 65 65 9 1 91 76 76 49 49 Process Process heat heat
11 5 5 78 78 8 8 . 4 4

2 2 10 10

Direct Direct heat heat 35 35 98 98 4 4 16 16 2 2 49 49 11 92 92 34 34 6 6 16 16 32 32

ElectroElectrochemical chemical 32 32

9 9

. . .

Light Light 11 11 3 3 11 3 3 11 5 5 11 11 3 3 5 5 2 2

Other Other

3 3
11 11 11

be done. To To irrigate irrigate a a 1-hectare l-hectare rice rice crop, crop, f fo be done. or r example, requires the the work work output output of of two two bullocks, bullocks, example, requires whi ch in in turn turn require require the the fodder fodder produced produced f rom 2 2 which from he ctares of of crop.' crop.94 By himself, the the individual individual farmer farmer hectares By himself, co uld not, not, however, however, pump pump this this much much water water by by hand hand could in an entire entire year. year. in an M odern Drive Drive Technologies Technologies Modern
Electric Ele ctric motor motor drive consumes consumes an estimated 58 to to 68 percent of of the electricity used used in the United 68 percent the electricity in the United States, and an an even even higher higher percentage percentage in in the the indusindusStates, and trial sector alone.'Motor alone.95 Motor drive drive is is similarly similarly imporimportrial sector tant in developing developing countries countries (see (see tables tables 3-14 3-14 and and tant in 3 -15). Electric Electric motors motors are are the the workhorses workhorses of of modern modern 3-15). industrial society. They They rrun home refrigerators; refrigerators; industrial society. u n home drive office air air conditioners; conditioners; power power industrial industrial pumps, pumps, drive office f ans, and and compressors; compressors; and and keep keep city city water water supplies supplies fans, f lowing. flowing.

This led to to a a rapid rapid transition transition in the industrialized industrialized This led in the countries steam-powered drive drive t o countries from waterwater- and and steam-powered to ele ctric drive drive in the early early 1900 s;'97sand the electricelectric in the 1 9 00 ; ity intensity of of industry continues to to increase increase today today ity industry continues 9 7 intensity in industrialized as well as devel o ping co untries. in industrialized as well as developing countries. and t h e
e l e c t r i c The efficiency of of electric electric motors motors is is generally generally The efficiency ffairly airly high high in the industrialized co untries, but an be in the industrialized countries, but c can be signi f i c antly l o wer in devel o ping co untries due o significantly lower in developing countries due t to the use of l o wer quality materials fo r co nstru c ti o n the use of lower quality materials for construction and improper techniques techniques for for maintenance, maintenance, repair, repair, and improper 98 and rewind. Figure 3 16 co mpares the e ff i c ien cy of and rewind." Figure 3-16 compares the efficiency of electric motors Brazil. India, and the United ele ctric m otors in Brazil, States. States.

The efficiency, convenience, convenience, and and high high degree degree of of The efficiency, co ntr o l of ele c tri c m o t o rs pr o vide dramati c e ff icontrol of electric motors provide dramatic effi% c ien c y and pr o du c tivity impr o vements in industry. ciency and productivity improvements in industry.'

Higher efficiency motors motors are are sometimes sometimes readily readily Higher efficiency available developing countries countries but annot be used available in in developing but c cannot be used be cause of of the poor quality of the electric power power because the poor quality of the electric available. r example, available. In In Brazil, Brazil, fo for example, the the largest largest manu manuf acturer of motors exports exports more more e fficient facturer of small small motors efficient m odels than ose s old at ome. These These high models t h a n th those sold at h home. high99 e ff i c ien c y m o t o rs c ann o t be used in Brazil due t o efficiency motors'cannot be used in Brazil due to the excessive variati on in ower line oltage. the excessive variation in the the p power line v voltage.

%Geoffrey Barnard Barnard and and Lars Lars Kristofferson, Agricultural Agricultural Residues Residues as as Fuel Fuel in in the the Third Third World World (London: (London: Earthscan, 1985). 1985).

F. Motor Systems, in Electricity: and New Generation Technologies and 95 Press, 1989). Their Planning Implications (Lund, Sweden: Lund Their Lund University University Press, 1989). S Planning Revolution and Electric Motor Drive a Annual Review ofEnergy, vol. 13,1988, pp. 96 m 67-94; 67-94; Jr., Historical "Historical Perspective Perspective on on Electrification Electrification in in Manufacturing, Manufacturing," S. S. Schurr and and S. S. Sonenblum (eds.), Electricity Use: Productive Productive S W.D. Devine, Jr., ue (Palo Alto, Alto, CA: Electric Power Efficiency and Economic Growth Growth (Palo CA: Electric Power Research Research Institute, Institute, 1986). 1986). a l F. The Materials Revolution and Energy Motor m Annual Review of Energy, vol. 13, 1988, p. 67-94. 97 F u e Princeton Center for Energy and S Motor Drive 9 8 . 1 a Systems: A Field Study 94, February Systems: A Field Study of of the the Jamaican Jamaican Sugar Sugar Industry, Industry," working working paper, paper, No. No 94, February 1988. 1988. In In particular, particular, when when motors motors are are rewound rewound they they are are S B F m sometimes simply put the insulation insulation off sometimes simply put on an open fire to to burn burn the off the the windings windings rather rather than than in in temperature-controlled temperature-controlled ovens, ovens,This This can can damage damage the the insulation insulation a . between the core laminations and lead to greater losses. u e the core laminations and lead to greater losses. between m l B 1 is equivalent u e efficiency of d of these these motors motors is equivalent to to the the standard standard efficiency in in the the industrialized industrialized countries. countries. a The
F 1 w l . F i d B . n w a

E l e c t r i c i t y Consumption C o n s u m p t i o n in i n India by b y Sector Sector and a n d End E n d Use, 1990 Table 3-15-Projected Electricity (percent (percent of total national electricity use)
Industrial process Industrial process Motor Process Motor Process a Total' heat Sector Total drive Electrolysis heat drive E l e ctrolysis 13.0 Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.0 10.4 Urban . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 Rural . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 2.6 - - 11.2 Commercial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2 18.4 18.4 Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.4 18.4 Industrial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54.8 33.4 10.8 5.5 Industrial 33.4 10.8 5.5 17.2 6.4 6.9 3.0 Primary metals metalsb... . . . . . . . . . 17.2 6.9 3.0 13.8 3.6 0.1 Chemicals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.8 8.8 3.6 0.1 10.2 0.4 Textiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2 7.8 0.4 68 5.8 0.5 Coal, cement Coal, c e m e n t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 5.8 0.5 c 34 1.5 0.2 1.4 Secondary m metals 1.5 0.2 1.4 e t a l s ' . . . . . . . . . 3.4 3.4 3.0 0.1 Paper 3.0 Paper .. .. ... ... ... .... . . 3.4 0.1 26 2.6 Railway traction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6 Railway traction 2.6 100.0 54.4 10.8 5.5 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54.4 10.8 100.0 5.5 61.4 54.4 Motor drive . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61.4 54.4
Not - N o t available or nonapplicable. a Total national national consumption consumption is is projected projected to be be 249.1 249.1 terawalthours terawatthours in 1990. 1990. a Total b Aluminum, Aluminum, nonferrous, nonferrous, iron, iron, and and steel. steel. C Iron C lron andsteel. andsteel. SOURCE: Ahmad Ahmad Faruqui, Greg Wilder, and Susan Shaffer, Application "Application of Demand-Side Management Management (DSM) To To Relieve Electricity Electricity Shortages Shortages in in India, India," contractor contractor report report prepared prepared for for the the Office Office of Technology Technology Assessment, Assessment, April April 1990. 1990.

Space conditioning Space conditioning Lighting Lighting 4.2 4.2 2.9 2.9 1.3 1.3 4.8 4.8 5.1 5.1 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.3 2.1 2.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 Cooling/ Cooling/ ventilation ventilation 3.5 3.5 2.9 2.9 0.5 0.5 1.6 1.6 Appliances Appliances Heating Heating Refrigeration Refrigeration Other Other 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.8

a p u u n o 0 S u d o t
Miscellaneous Miscellaneous 2.9 2.9 2.4 2.4 0.5 0.5 2.1 2.1

1.5 1.5

14.5 14.5

5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1

1.5 1.5

1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9

1.8 1.8

5.0 5.0

Chapter 3--Energy Services in Developing Countries .771 1 Chapter

Figure 3-16-Efficiency of Electric Motors in the United States, Brazil, and India Figure
Motor e ff i c i e n c y, p ercent Motor efficiency, percent
95 95

90 85
80

75 A
70 65

I I I I I 10 10 Electric motor size, H HP Electric m o t o r size, P

100 100

eff. eff. + B Brazil high - Brazil Brazil sstandard tandard e ff. + razil h igh e ff . US gh h eeffff.. ' U S AA hhi ig
+

IIndia ndia m anufacturer ~ manufacturer

~ I India n d i a f field i e l d t test est

This figure figure shows the efficiency for motors in Brazil, India, and (high-efficiency only) the United United States. Note the large difference in motor efficiency as measured in field tests and as cited by manufacturers manufacturers in India. India. Andreas, Energy-Efficient Electric Motors 1982). SOURCES: United States: John C. Andreas, Motors (New (New York, York, NY: NY: Marcel MarcelDekker,1982).
ElectricityConservation in Brazil: Brazil: Status Status Report Report and and Analysis,"contractor report Brazil: Howard S. Geller, "ElectricityConservation report prepared Technology Assessment, Assessment, March March 1990; 1990; India: S. prepared for the Office of Technology S. Anand, and V.S.Kothari, Characterization Characterization of of Electric Electric Motors Motors in Industry Industry and and Energy Conservation Conservation Potential Potential in in India India (New (New Delhi, Delhi, India: Tata Energy Energy Research Research Institute, Institute, no no date). date). India: Tata

This firm has has also also developed developed motors motors with with efficienefficienThis firm c ies comparable comparable to to the the highest highest performance performance motors motors cies in industrialized industrialized countries!' countries.l00 A lthough the the efficiency efficiency of of electric electric motors motors themthemAlthough selves c an be quite high, the e ff i c ien c y of the o verall selves can be quite high, the efficiency of the overall system is generally l o w. F o r example, the co nversystem is generally low. For example, the conversi o n of co al t o ele c tri c ity typi c ally results in the loss sion of coal to electricity typically results in the loss of tw othirds of the input co al energy. There are of two-thirds of the input coal energy. There are additi o nal l o sses thr o ugh o ut the system, with the additional losses throughout the system, with the resulting net o utput as l o w as 5 per c ent of the input resulting net output as low as 5 percent of the input energy (see figure figure 3-17). 3-17). Significant Significant energy energy savings savings energy (see are p o ssible thr o ugh the use of better te c hn ologies are possible through the use of better technologies and better co ntr o l strategies thr o ugh o ut the system. and better control strategies throughout the system.

e fficient; technologies technologies that ow quality efficient; that are are of of l low quality and and of ten obsolete; obsolete; raw raw materials materials that ow quality ; often that are are of of llow quality; inadequate national infrastructures; infrastructures; lack lack of reign inadequate national of fo foreign ex change to to purchase purchase critical critical components components not not availavailexchange able ocally; and ck of chnicians, able l locally; and a a la lack of skilled skilled te technicians, engineers, and managers. managers. engineers, and The average U.S. U.S. paper paper mill, for example, example, has has an an The average mill, for annual capacity of of 100,000 tons, whereas whereas in annual capacity 100,000 tons, in Latin Latin A merica, Af rica, and sia ( except Japan ), the America, Africa, and A Asia (except Japan), the average capacities are are 18,000,9,000, 18,000,9,000, and and 5,000 5,000 tons, tons, average capacities respe ctively. These cales c an lead o respectively. These smaller smaller s scales can lead t to signi ficant inefficiencies. inefficiencies. Studies Studies indicate indicate that significant that a a paper mill with with an an annual annual capacity capacity of of 30,000 tons paper mill 30,000 tons c an consume consume f rom 30 percent t o as as mu ch as can from 30 percent to much as 100 100 per cent more more energy/steam energy/steam respectively respectively per per unit percent unit o utput than apacity of ons.lO1 output than a a mill mill with with a ac capacity of 150,000 150,000 t tons.' In addition, a a variety variety of of energy-conserving energy-conserving technolotechnoloIn addition, gies, such as as waste waste heat covery systems systems and gies, such heat re recovery and

Barriers to Efficiency Improvements A number of of factors factors limit limit the the efficiency, efficiency, producproducA number tivity, and performance performance of of industrial industrial operations operations in in tivity, and devel oping countries: countries: plants plants that that are are too too small small to to be be developing

Status Report contractor report loaHoward S. Geller, Electricity "Electricity Conservation Conservation in in Brazil: Brazil: Status Report and Analysis," contractor report prepared prepared for for the theOffice of of Technology Technology Assessment, 1990. Assessment, March March 1990. and Industry with Emphasis on Developing Countries, World No. 1 0 1 A n d J, p. 45. ew 34, r Washington, DC, 1985, 1985, p. 45.
J E n " . w i g , E

72 Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries

Figure 3-17Energy Losses in an Example Electric Motor-Driven Pumping System in the United States
100 1 00 Fraction o f i input n p u t ccoal o a l eenergy n e r g y rremaining emaining Fraction of

cement which operated 22 per percent of c ement industry, whi ch o perated at jjust ust 22 cent of rated capacity n 1984. rated capacity iin 1984.104 1 Assistance A ssistance may be useful useful at several several levels. The 'efficiency e fficiency and and productivity productivity of traditional traditional rural inin-

80 r 80
- Generation Generation (33%) (33%)

60 6 0 -nd d i s t r i b u t i o n (90%) Transmission a and distribution (90%)

404 0~

Motor (91%) Motor (91%)

/

Shaft c o u p l i n g (98%) Shaft coupling (98%)

202 0-

This figure shows the useful energy remaining at each stage of a pumping system. The values in parentheses are the efficiencies of the particular device at each stage.

Pump 77% Throttle valve 66% Pump 7 7 . / . - - T h r o t t l e n a i v e 6 6 % t / i -Piping ( 35%) ) L i 7 r o i I 7 7 7 77 r n 0 6 7 8 8 3 4 5 0 12 2 4 6 7i 3 5 Point a l o n g tthe he p umping s ystem Point along pumping system n g This figure shows the useful energy remaining at each stage of a 3 pumping system. The values in parentheses are the efficiencies of 5 % the particular device at each stage. )

L, L

b)

dustries might be significantly costdustries significantly increased increased in a co steffective with the of a a limited limited e ffective reamer reamer with the introduction introduction of set of m modern tools. set odern technologies technologies and management management t ools. To difficult to T o do do this, however, however, is extremely extremely di fficult due due t o the small and and s scattered nature of of traditi traditional rural indus indussmall cattered nature onal rural tries and the large extensi extension effort needed t to reach tries on e ffort needed o rea ch it. Large it. Large industry in developing developing countries countries has has many many of the the same needs needs-technical, and of -technical, managerial, and financial f inancial assistance--but assistance--but can can be be reached reached more more readily. International aid aid agencies agencies and and a few few nonnonreadily. International g overnmental organizations organizations are are providing providing such such asasgovernmental sistance that their their f funds allow. sistan ce to to the the extent extent that unds all ow.

SOURCE: Samuel Samuel F. F. Baldwin, Baldwin, Energy-Efficient Electric Motor Motor Drive Drive Systems, tems, in Electricity: Efficient End-Use and New Generation Technologies and and Their Their Planning Planning Implications (Lund, Sweden: Lund University Press, 1989).

co generation systems, systems, become become financially financially less less atatcogeneration tractive tra ctive or or even even uneconomical uneconomical at smaller smaller scales. scales.
in The raw raw materials materials available available to to industries in devel oping countries countries are are often often of of l ow quality. quality. For For developing low example, coal resources resources in in India India are are poor, poor, providing providing example, coal blast -f urna c e co ke with an ash co ntent that typically blast-furnace coke with an ash content that typically ranges f r o m 21 t o 27 per c ent. This l o wers the energy ranges from 21 to 27 percent. This lowers the energy e ff i c ien c y of the steelmaking pr oc ess as well as efficiency of the steelmaking process as well as 102 p o tentially inter f ering with steel pr o du c ti o n. potentially interfering with steel production.'

Dramati c improvements improvements iin energy efficiency efficiency Dramatic n the the energy and productivity of of basic basic materials materials processing processing techtechand productivity n ologies are are also also still possible-even beyond beyond the nologies still possible-even the levels currently achieved achieved in the industrialized industrialized councounlevels currently in the tries. Research is oing o n in ch tries. Research is g going on in this this area, area, but but mu much more current research m ore could could be be done. done. Much Much of of the c urrent resear ch is foc used on on higher higher value-added value-added specialty specialty materials materials focused and -grade f inishing rather than o n primary and high high-grade finishing rather than on primary 105 Developing countries, countries, however, however, have have pr ocessing. Developing processing. little apital t o undertake ch needed o little c capital to undertake the the resear research needed t to impr ove their their industrial industrial processes, processes, and and few few internainternaimprove ti onal agencies agencies support support research research of kind. tional of this this kind.

The Traction (Agricultural) and Transportation Sectors Sectors

Traction Traction and and Agriculture
A griculture entails entails a a series series of of operations: operations: soil soil Agriculture preparati o n, s o wing, weeding, harvesting, and p o stpreparation, sowing, weeding, harvesting, and postharvest st o rage. In traditi o nal agri c ulture, these harvest storage. I n traditional agriculture, these o perations are are performed performed by manual lab or with, operations by manual labor with, in in s o me c ases, assistan c e f r o m animals. A s agri culture some cases, assistance from animals. As agriculture in creases iin scale and and is is commercialized, commercialized, many many of increases n scale of these o perati o ns are d o ne by ma c hines. these operations are done by machines. A griculture is by f ar the oyer and Agriculture is by far the largest largest empl employer and g oods-producing economic economic sector sector in the poorer poorer goods-producing i n the devel oping countries. countries. I In sub-Saharan Africa, Africa, for for developing n sub-Saharan example, 75 percent percent of ork fo rce is engaged in example, 75 of the the w work force is engaged in

Inadequate national infrastructures infrastructures also also reduce reduce Inadequate national e fficiency and and productivity. productivity. Frequent Frequent electric electric power power efficiency br ownouts or or blackouts blackouts are are particularly particularly damaging. damaging. brownouts In Ghana, for for example, example, the the GIHOC GIHOC Brick Brick and and Tile Tile In Ghana, C o. had had 152 152 hours hours of of electricity electricity outages outages iin 1986. Co. n 1986. W hen an an outage outage occurs, occurs, the the fuel fuel oil oil feed feed to to the the kiln When kiln burners is cut cut off and the fire fire must be stoked stoked with w ood. This This is is a a haphazard haphazard process process and and significantly significantly wood. redu ces the the quality quality of of the the fried fried bricks.' bricks.103 reduces The lack of of foreign foreign exchange exchange to to buy buy spare spare parts parts The lack c an also also be be a a serious serious handicap. handicap. This This has has been been an an can imp ortant factor factor in in the the decline decline of of the Tanzanian important the Tanzanian

Environmental Process Industries of India and contractor report prepared for the 102 1990. Office of Technology Technology Assessment, April April 1990. E nof 1988. erg IOUNDP/World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance Program, "Ghana: Energy Rationalization in the Industrial Sector," June 1988. yan November 1989, 1989, pp. 294-302. ' s Future CementNeeds,"NaturalResourcesForum, November 104D,F.Stewart,andB.Muhegi, "Strategies for meeting Tanzania pp. 294-302. d University, personal communication Feb. 1, 1989. 1 5R E0 n o v i b r o e n rt m a e n

Chapter 3--Energy Services in Developing 7 3 Chapter Developing Countries 73

agriculture, compared compared to to just just 2 percent percent in the United

Traditional Traditi onal Shifting Shifting Agriculture Agriculture Traditional forestTraditi onal shifting shifting agriculture agriculture begins begins with fo resti n which forest ffallow allow systems, in which plots plots of fo rest land are cleared for few years and then le left c leared and cultivated cultivated fo raf ew years ft for or more. by f fire requires ffallow allow fo r 20 years o rm ore. Clearing Clearing by ire requires little labor, left for regrowth little labor, and stumps are le ft fo r rapid regr owth during fallow. during fallow. Because Because the ground ground underneath underneath tree cover co ver is soft, soft, no no further further labor labor is required before before sowing, s owing, and because because the forest forest cover cover has long long and suppressed weeds, few n d little little suppressed few seeds remain a weeding is needed. needed. Such Such burning burning d oes, h owever, weeding is does, however, e ffectively lead lead to to very very large large agri cultural energy energy effectively agricultural intensities due to to the the large large amount amount of rest cover cover intensities due of fo forest that is off.' that is burned burned off .lll

States. Agriculture Agriculture also also provides provides a significant significant fracfraction ti on of GDP in developing developing countries--one-third countries--one-third of GDP for for the nearly 3 billion billion people people in low-income low-income countries 106 co untries 106 (see table 3-16).
(see Agriculture A griculture in the lowest lowest income income countries countries is t a b l by e small, largely by small, family family farms farms using human and 3 - 1power animal po6 wer and organic organic fertilizer fertilizer with little access access ) . to t o or or knowledge knowledge of modern modern inputs such such as chemical chemical fertilizers, f ertilizers, hybrid hybrid seeds, seeds, or or mechanical mechanical drive. drive. EthioEthiopians, for for example, example, use use on on average average just just 4 4 kg kg of of c hemical fertilizer fertilizer per per hectare hectare of of cropland, cropland, while while the the chemical English use use 368 368 (see (see table table 3-16). 3-16). Low Low soil soil fertility fertility and inadequate inadequate or or irregular irregular rain fall sharply sharply limit the rainfall pr oductivity of of low-input low-input farms farms in in developing developing councounproductivity tries. tries.

There is a a general general trend trend toward toward larger larger farms, farms, There is and greater greater use use of mmergreater mechanization, and greater mechanization, of co commerc ial inputs inputs in in many many developing developing countries, countries, resulting resulting cial in greater productivity productivity but but at at the the cost cost of of greater greater in greater dire ct and and indirect indirect energy energy inputs. inputs. India, India, for for example, example, direct nearly doubled its its irrigated irrigated area area between between 1950 1950 and and nearly doubled 1984 in order order to to reduce reduce its its vulnerability vulnerability to to poor poor 1984 in 107 m ns mo o noo s ns. o o n In s .creased irrigation and use of highyield variety crops crops have have contributed contributed to to increases increases in in yield u n variety b abs os lute and per-capita per-capita agricultural agricultural producproducboth absolute and Io nth cr e a e d 108 ti o itiOn. r n. r i g a

1 i o n t China has similarly similarly moved moved toward toward greater greater mechamechaChina has " a nizati o n and use of m o dern inputs. A gri c ulture in nization and use of modern inputs. Agriculture in 8 China is sharply co nstrained by land availability d China is sharply constrained by land availability o nly about abs out 10 10 percent percent of of the the land land can can support support u only There are a a number number of otential advantages c r o ps yet per -c apita pr o du c ti o n in c reased by 18 18 There are of p potential advantages crops-yet per-capita production increased by e associated the use or per c ent f r o m 1979 t o 1983 with little in c rease in ass oc iated with of animal o r mechanical mechanical percent from 1979 to 1983 with little increase in o l09 c ultivated area. Impr o ved water co ntr o l and tra c ti o n fo r agri c ulture. Pr o perly d o ne, tillage imimtraction for agriculture. Properly done, tillage fcultivated a r e a . distributi o n, in c reased use of tra c t o rs and f ertilizers, pr o ves the co nditi o n of the s o il fo r c r o p gr o wth distribution, increased use of tractors and fertilizers, proves the condition of the soil for crop growth m9 i h and the ad o pti o n of new c r o p varieties co ntributed t o in c reasing p o r o sity, aerati o n, r oo t penetrati o n, and and the adoption new crop varieties contributed to increasing porosity, aeration, root penetration, and I mp rh o v e d of110 g achievement."' water infiltration while while reducing reducing evaporation. evaporation. ExExthis achievement. water infiltration w a t e r c o n t r Development NY: Oxford 106 o W lo Data and Yearbook Op. Cit., 56, P. IcaT a r n a ltd of the United Nations, and Agriculture, 1984, Rome, Italy, 1985, p. 137. The State of Food losF a d B o 1 09 ao

W ith increasing increasing population population density, the f allow With fallow peri od becomes becomes shorter. shorter. As As a regrowth during period a result, result, regrowth during the allow period period is is reduced reduced t o bush, bush, and inally t o the f fallow to and f finally to grass. Since f ire does does n ot kill roots, extensive extensive h oeing grass. Since fire not kill roots, hoeing and become ne cessary. Inputs rganic and weeding weeding become necessary. Inputs of of o organic ffertilizer ertilizer are are needed needed to to maintain maintain soil soil f ertility, and and fertility, there ft f rom simple on of rganic there is is a a shi shift from simple additi addition of o organic material to more more complex complex comporting comporting and and manuring manuring material to te chniques. Further Further increases increases in opulation lead o techniques. in p population lead t to annual cultivation and and eventually eventually multiple cropping. annual cultivation multiple cropping. ((In In the the humid humid tropics, tropics, however, however, soils soils tend o be be p oor tend t to poor and easily eroded eroded and and leached, leached, and and the the potential potential fo r and easily for co ntinuous cultivation cultivation is is limited.") limited.112) As As the r continuous the need need fo for h oeing and and weeding weeding increases increases it becomes advantaadvantahoeing i t becomes ge ous to to go go t o the the extra extra e ffort of geous to effort of destumping destumping the the land land and obtaining, training, training, and and maintaining maintaining animals animals o r and obtaining, or me chanical agricultural agricultural technology.' technology.113 mechanical

E d I nb i Howe, noc, Howe, Chinas China's Economy Economy (New (New York, NY: NY: Basic Basic Books, Books, Inc.,1978). n a d .n k e , Shifting Cultivators Keep Shifting: Understanding Farmer in Traditional Systems, d 111 W r Forestry: Some Some Aspects, Aspects, UNDP UNDP THA/81/004 (Bangkok, Thallad: d: Environment Policy Institute, Community Community Forestry: Environment and and Policy Institute, East-West East-West Center, Center, Honolulu, and and A. g o g Asia and UNFAO Regional Office for for Asia and the the Pacific, 1984). 1984). r T i Regional r y of in c u e l 112Prabhu pi R ln t afootnote r r op. cit., 88. g op. d cit., footnote 88. e u yi r et& of depend D l us factors, s 111 3 e R e , including how difficult the soil is to the of me@ hides, and other provided by cattle; the use of e P m b how difficult the soil is to work, the value of milk, me@ hides, and other services prOVided by cattle; the use of manure; including manure; the the cost cost of of training O a Y and main ; the the cost cost of andv a maintaining of destumping and and otherwise otherwise preparing preparing fields fields and and weeding; weeding; the the length length of of time time that that animals animalscan be be used;the the risk risk of of h u v e s animals; r m such e B i g (transmitted by the tsetse fly); and many others. disease as disease r P i such as trypanosomiasis (transmitted by the tsetse fly); and many others. g b t l o c n g a o o a h a l in n , p d I e i " m H n t

74 E n e g r y n i D e v o l p n i g C o u n e i r t s
Table 3-16--Agricultural for Selected C Countries Table 3-1 6--Agricultural IIndicators ndicators f o r Selected ountries
Fertilizer GNP/Cap Agricultural Agricultural GDP GDP as as Agricultural employment as Percent of farms larger Fertilizer (1987) percent of total GDP percent percent of total total employment employment t h athan (kg/ha) n 5 ha 4 130 4 45 4 14 250 14 13 300 30 61 9 43 9 290 26 176 57 2,020 10 36 63 35 2 2 2 2 10,420 83 368 2 2 90 101 2 2 18,530
Crop yields yields (kg/ha) (kg/ha) Roots/tubers Cereal 1,081 1,747 1,590 1,590 3,891 1,719 1,719 6,081 4,618 2,827 3,687 14,268 14,268 15,614 15,614 12,072 12,072 36,072 31,215

Country Ethiopia. Ethiopia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Zambia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . UK ...0 U.S.A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . U.S.A.

Not available available or or not not applicable. applicable. Not SOURCES: World World Bank, World Development Report 1989 (New York, NY: NY: Oxford Oxford University University Press, 1959). 19S9). pp. 163-165, 163-165, 17S-160. 17S-160. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United United Nations, The State of Food Food and Agriculture1984 (Rome: FAO, 1965), pp. 123. Tata Energy Research Institute, TEA! Energy Data Data Directory and Yearbook 1988 (New Delhi, India: Tata Energy Research Institute, 1969), p. 123. Press, 1956), 19S6), pp. pp. 272-277. 272-277. World Resources Institute, Institute, World Resources1988-89 (New York, NY: Oxford University Press,

Chapter 3--Energy Services in Developing Countries .775 5 Chapter Developing Countries

Box 3-AThe Box 3-AThe One-Ox One-Ox Plow' Plow

1

Many farmers in in developing developing countries countries are are unable unable to to support support the the two two draft draft animals Many farmers animals needed to pull a a traditi traditional needed t o pull onal plow. a quarter quarter have or more. Ethiopia, only pl ow. Although Although half half of of the households households in Bangladesh Bangladesh keep keep cattle, cattle, only only a have two two o rm ore. In Ethi opia, o nly a third of the farmers of these these are lost the periodic At peak c cultivation a farmers own own two two draft draft animals-and animals-and many many of are l ost in the periodic droughts. droughts. A t peak ultivation or borrow and maybe maybe delayed delayed in planting planting their their c crops, which times, these farmers farmers must then rent o rb orrow a second second animal and rops, whi ch ina a timely manner-both for making maximum of depend critically critically on on catching catching the sparse and irregular rains rains in manner-both fo r making maximum use use of first rains rains(see the nitrogen nitrogen released with the the first (see ch.2) ch. 2) and and for for reaching reaching maturity with the last rains. Researchers Center fo for (ILCA) Ethiopia, responded to Resear chers at the International International Livestock Livestock Center r Africa Africa ( ILCA) in Addis Addis Ababa, Ababa, Ethi opia, resp onded t o double for single ox: ox could pull this situation situation by redesigning the traditional t r adi t ional d ouble yoke yoke fo ra a single ox: experiments experiments showed showed that one one o x co uld pull two. with 70 percent percent of the force force of tw o. In the the field, field, however, however, Ethiopian Ethiopian farmers farmers quickly quickly converted converted the one-ox one-ox plows plows ba ck int o the traditi onal tw o-ox back into traditional two-ox form. On examination, researchers researchers found found that that the the traditional traditional two-ox two-ox form form had Farm oxen oxen form.O nexamination, hada anumber number of of advantages. Farm were not not as well fed fed n or as strong strong as those those which which had been been tested at the ILC A headquarters headquarters and uld n ot pull nor ILCA and co could not pull as as hard ; and and two two oxen oxen were were able able to to steady steady each each other o t h e r when one on e stumbl stumbled. coupling of of the the traditional traditional two-ox two-ox hard; ed.The Therigid rigid coupling pl ow also also enabled enabled the the farmer farmer to to steer steer the the oxen oxen and and to to shift shift s some ow t o the xen during during a plow o m eof ofthe theweight weight of of the the pl plow to the o oxen aturn. turn. In ntrast, the the single single ox ox yoke yoke used used a lexible rope r ope harness which reduced reduced the the farmer's farmers ability o steer steer the Inco contrast, af flexible harness which ability t to the animals animals and forced him h i m to t o carry c a rr y t h e full weight weight of plow when when turning. The one one o x pl ow also also had skid to and forced thefUll of the the plow turning. The ox plow had a a skid toregulate regulatethe the depth of the the cut: cu t : iit t br oke easily easily but but could could not not be be repaired by the the farmers farmers themselves. themselves. depth of broke repaired by Further, where the the quality quality of of the feed is is v e r y poor-a p o o r-a common c o m m o n situati on in in many many tropical tropical areas-working areas-working Further, where the feed very situation animals are unable unable to to co mpensate fo r their e xp e n di t u r e by ore and nsequently l ose weight. animals are compensate for their energy energy expenditure by eating eating m more and co consequently lose weight. A A w orking animal animal also also has has a a 10 10 percent percent higher higher basal basal metabolic metabolic rate onworking animal -requiring m ore foo d working rate than than a an nonworking animal-requiring more food just for for maintenance. maintenance. In In this this case, case, it may be be better better t o use two oxen oxen t o do do what little an with out llosing osing t oo just it may to use two to "what little they they c can without too mu ch weight weight rather rather than to have have one one ox ox which which soon soon be comes exhausted exhausted beyond beyond recovery. recovery. much than to becomes A s one one researcher researcher at at the the ILCA ILCA noted, noted, "It It might might have have occurred occurred to to us us that that i f Ethi opian farmers farmers hadn't hadnt invented invented As if Ethiopian s omething as as simple simple as as the the one-ox one-ox plow plow in 3,000 years years of culture, they obably had ons. something in 3,000 of agri agriculture, they pr probably had reas reasons. S ome have have similarly similarly thought thought that that the the same same animal animal might might be be used used t o provide provide both both lab or and Experiments Some to labor and milk. milk. Experiments in Costa Rica Rica showed showed that that cows cows could, could, in in fact, fact, provide provide bothif bothif fed fed adequately. adequately. Tropical Tropical pastures, pastures, however, however, are are n ot in Costa not adequate. To provide provide the the animal animal a a sufficient sufficient diet diet for for such such a a high high rate rate of of energy energy expenditure expenditure required required concentrated concentrated adequate. To f eed supplements supplements such such as as grain. grain. This This could could create create a a direct nflict over ove r foo d between between dra ft cows cows and and people people in feed directco conflict food draft in many many parts of the the world. world. parts of
iDebora MacKenzie, "Ethiopia's Hand to the the Plough," New New Scientist, Scientist, Oct. Oct. 1, 1, 1987, 1987, pp. pp. 52-55; 52-55; Peter Peter Lawrence Lawrence and Anthony Smith, A "A Better Beast of Better Beast of Burden," New New Scientist, Scientist, Apr. Apr. 21,1988, 21,1988, pp. pp. 49-53; 49-53; A.K.M. A.K.M.Abdul Quader and K. K. lkhtyar Omar, Commonwealth Commonwealth Science Science Council, Council, Resources and Energy "Resources and Energy Potentials Potentials in in Rural Rural Bangladesh," technical technical publication publication series series No. No. 191, 191, London, 1986. 1986.

periments show that that yields yields can can be be increased increased by by periments show 114 In practice, however, little increase is pl owing. plo wing. p r a c t i c e , h o w e v e r, l i t t l e increase is observed to o bserved as farmers farmers tend instead t o focus focus on on in creasing cultivated cultivated area'''or area or on saving labor, labor, increasing rather than improving improving the the quality quality of of their tillage. In In rather than their tillage. W est Africa, Africa, the the soils soils are are so so hard hard they they often often cannot cannot West be plowed (without (without damage damage to to equipment) equipment) until the be plowed until the rains begin, but but then then any any delay delay reduces reduces the the available available rains begin, gr owing time time and and risks risks a a shortage shortage of of water growing water when when 116 plants rea c h maturity. plants reach maturity.'
115

Peasant armers have have responded responded t o their ten Peasant f farmers to their of often di ff i c ult c ir c umstan c es in varied ways b o th l o gi cal difficult circumstances in varied waysboth logical ((see see box box 3-A) 3-A) and and frequently frequently ingenious. ingenious. For For examexampie, around 1925-1930, 1925-1930, animal ction began o be pie, around animal tra traction began t to be used in n o rthwestern and c entral Senegal used i n northwestern and central Senegal and and n orthern Nigeria Nigeria fo r peanut peanut cultivation. cultivation. The The light, northern for light, sandy s o ils of Senegal d o n o t require pl o wing, and sandy soils of Senegal do not require plowing, and as the gr o wing seas o n is s o sh o rt, rapid planting as the growing season is so short, rapid planting of of peanuts while the the soil soil is is moist moist is essential. ConseConsepeanuts while is essential. quently, seeders are are used used by by the the peasants peasants so so that that quently, seeders larger areas can can be be cultivated cultivated within available larger areas within the the available
in

Bigot, P. Mechanization and the Evolution 1 op. 88; Peter Peter Mun7inger, Animal Traction op. Icit., cit., footnote footnote 88; Traction in in Africa (Eschbom, West West G Germany: a r z , 1987), 1987), p. p. 279. 279. 4 average expansion area by the introduction of draft animals to smallholders is to 115 P expansion is 150 150 to 200 percent. 1n expansion is to 200 percent. Peter Peter M Munzinger, Animal Animal Traction Traction in in Africa, op. op. cit, footnote footnote 114, 114, p. p. 287. 287. r S al., op. Cit., footnote 88. 116
a e Pra b n bh h e uPi

Energy 76 Energy in in Developing Developing Countries

time. Horses time. Horses are are used used instead instead of oxen, oxen, since since the greater power power of oxen oxen is not not needed needed (there (there is no no plowing) pl owing) and and horses horses are faster, faster, further further increasing increasing the grown planted area. In Nigeria, where peanuts are gr own in mid-slope mid -slope regions regions on on soils soils highly susceptible susceptible to to erosion, er osion, ox-drawn ox-drawn ridgers are used to to control control the erosion.' er osion.117 Modern M odern Commercial Commercial Agriculture Agriculture As A s population population grows grows agricultural agricultural productivities productivities must be be raised. raised. Modern Modern inputs inputs are are needed needed to to achieve achieve this. Commercial Commercial fuel fuel inputs inputs to to agriculture agriculture include include me chanized land land preparation, preparation, mechanized mechanized irrigairrigamechanized ti on, and and synthetic synthetic fertilizers: fertilizers.118 tion, 18The degree of mechanization varies widely, but The degree of mechanization varies widely, but generally increases with with per-capita per-capita income. income. MechaMechagenerally increases nization nizati on reduces reduces the time and labor labor needed for for preparing, planting, and and harvesting harvesting crops. crops. In In favorafavorapreparing, planting, ble areas, it it also also aids aids double double cropping. cropping. The The tractors tractors ble areas, themselves come in in many many formsin formsin China China the the most most themselves come p opular is is probably probably the the "Worker-Peasant," Worker-Peasant, a a 7-hp 7-hp popular garden tractor. In In India, India, where where the the number number of of tractors tractors garden tractor. almost doubled from to 1 9 7 7119 , ' the the m most alm ost d oubled f rom 1972 t o 1977, ost p opular is is a a 30-hp 30-hp diesel. diesel. popular

Figure 3-18-Use of Agricultural Pumpsets Figure Pumpsets in India, 1950-1990 1950-1990

Number o f pumps y type Number of pumps b by type (millions) (millions) 7 I 65-

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990 1990

Elle ec cttr rii c ppu E um mp p sse ett s

+D iesel p ump s ets + Diesel pump sets

+A nimal-powered p ump + Animal-powered pump

SOURCE: Energy Research Institute, TERI Energy Data Directory SOURCE: Tata Energy Directory India: 1989), 1989), footnote footnote and Yearbook Yearbook (TE/2DYjl (TE/2DYji 7988 7988 (New (New Delhi, Delhi, India: 56. 56.

1970-71 6Wh 1985-86. number of of 1970 -71 to to 23,420 G Wh in 1985 -86. The number diesel pump sets sets has has also also grown, grown, but diesel pump but they they still still are are 121 electric units.' ffewer ewer in number number than than the ele ctric units.

Transportation Transportation The ortation se ctor a ccounts fo ra r The transp transportation sector accounts for a quarter quarter o or m ore of otal co mmercial energy ost more of t total commercial energy use use in in m most devel oping countries-India countries-India and and China China being being the the developing m ost notable notable exceptions exceptions (see (see table 3-l). M ost of most table 3-1). Most of this this transp ort energy rom o il. Energy r transp ortransport energy is is f from oil. Energy use use fo for transportati on in in the the developing developing world world is is expected expected to to grow grow tation rapidly the future, future, as as in creasing urbanizati on and rapidly in in the increasing urbanization and in comes (see (see figure figure 3-19) 3-19) lead lead t o increased increased demand incomes to demand fo r transportation transportation services. services. This This will will increase increase the the for o utflow of carce fo reign ex change fo r the iloutflow of s scarce foreign exchange for the o oilimp orting countries, countries, and and will also require consideraimporting will also require considerable investment infrastructure. ble investment in roads roads and related related in frastructure.
Transp ortation can can be be provided provided by rail, road, road, Transportation by air, air, rail, o r water. Inmost of of the developing world, world, as as well well as or water. Inmost the developing as in the industrialized industrialized world, world, road road technologies technologies proproin the vide most transport transport services. services. Notable Notable exceptions exceptions are are vide most India and China, China, which which have have large large rail networks. India and rail networks. In rural and and poor poor areas areas of developing w orld, In rural of the the developing world, walking is the the principal principal transport transport "technology." technology. walking is The advantages of -it requires o The advantages of walking walking are are many many-it requires n no c apital investment, investment, it is not not restricted restricted to to roads, roads, and and capital i t is

Irrigati on is is most most commonly commonly done done with with either either Irrigation ele ctric motor motor or or diesel diesel driven driven pumps. pumps. Electric Electric electric pumps are quite quite reliable reliable (although (although subject subject t o interinterpumps are to rupti ons in in the the electric electric power power grid) grid) and and convenient, convenient, ruptions and are often often the lowest lowest cost cost alternative. DieselDieselele ctric pumping pumping systems, systems, in in which which diesel diesel generators generators electric pr oduce electricity electricity that that is is then then used used to to drive drive electric electric produce pumps, and direct direct diesel diesel and and gasoline-powered gasoline-powered pumps, and pumps are more more often often used used where where no no electric electric grid grid is is pumps are available. These are are much much less less mechanically mechanically dedeavailable. These pendable than electric electric pumps. pumps. pendable than In China, irrigation irrigation is is a a significant significant consumer consumer of of In China, ele ctricity. I It is estimated estimated that that 70 70 percent percent of of the electricity. t is the ele ctricity consumed consumed in in rural rural areas areas is is for for irrigati on, electricity irrigation, with the remainder remainder used used for for food food processing, processing, various various with the rural industries, and and lighting.'In lighting.120 In India, India, the the number number rural industries, of electric pump pump sets sets for for irrigation irrigation has has grown grown rapidly of electric rapidly ( see figure figure 3-18), 3-18), and and the the electricity electricity consumption consumption for for (see these pump sets sets has has gone gone from from 4,470 4,470 GWh GWh iin these pump n

used fo r production and that used for crop preparation both of which we include under industrial energy use. i t s m i excludes TEDDY 1988, op. cit., footnote 56, p. s 11 9 e x Economy, op. cit., footnote p. Ta 1 2 t Howe, c al u Of 0 1211n 1983184. d E ,e C used as for the electric units. Research Institute, op. footnote 56, p. 135. , f backups used as backups for tile electric units. 'rata Energy Research Institute, TEDDY 1988, op. cit., footnote 56, p. 135. s n H o r e e o e x a m p n r w l e

Chapter 3--Energy Services in Developing Countries 7 7 Chapter Developing Countries 77

Figure 3-19-Passenger and Freight Transport v. GNP for Selected Countries, 1960-81 Figure
Passenger traffic and GNP capita Passenger GNP per per capita 10,000 10,000

II

I I

I1

U.S.A.

Japan

V /B // I
99 9dia dia
100

1
1
1
I I I

14 4

t
1,000 1,000
GNP GNP per p e r capita c a p i t a (1979-1981 constant use)

100 100

10,000 10,000

Total freight and and GNP GNP f for countries, 1980-1981 1980-1981 Total freight o r selected countries,
1 I 1 1 I I

U.S.S.R.

1,000 1,000

100 100

T o t a l e r f g i h B ( ti o t . l n k m )

1 0 10

1I

I
0

10 10

100

I
1 ,
GNP (BIL.US$) GNP (BILLISS)

0 1,000

are for specific specific years. years. are for

This figure shows shows how how passenger passenger and and freight freight transport transport This figure

energy use use have have increased increased with with GNP GNP for for seven countries. The The individual data points energy seven countries. individual data points

SOURCE: J. Venny Venny and and L. L. Uy, Uy, "Transport Transport in China, World SOURCE: J. in China," World Bank Bank staff staff working working paper, paper, No. No. 723, 723, Washington, Washington, DC, DC, 1985. 1985.

78 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries

t is it requires requires no no fossil fossil fuels. fuels. On On the other other hand, iit slow, sl ow, tiring, tiring, and and requires requires energy energy in the form form of food. food. Animal A nimal technologies, technologies, such such as as bullock bullock carts, carts, are sometimes s ometimes faster, faster, have have a much much greater freight freight capacity, c apacity, and and involve involve less less work work for for people. people. Capital Capital investment in in the bullock bullock and cart cart is required, however, h owever, as as well well as as an operational operational cost cost for for feed. feed. These two two technologies-walking technologies-walking and and domesticated domesticated animals-are n animals -are the the principal principal means means of of transport transport iin particularly many poorer poorer and rural areas, parti cularly in Africa Africa and Asia. and Asia.

Table 3-17Passenger 3-17Passenger Fleet Fleet Size Size and Growth Table in Selected Selected Countries Countries in
Average annual annual Average growth growth in in automobile automobile fleet size, 1982-86 fleet 1982-86 41.6 41.6 8.2 8.2 3.2 3.2 8.8 8.8 8.9 8.9 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.3 2.4 2.4

Bi cycles are are a a popular popular transport transport technology, technology, Bicycles espe cially in in China, China, where where from from 50 50 to to 90 90 percent percent of of especially urban vehicle vehicle trips trips are are made made by by this this mode.'The mode. 122 The f rost cost cost of of a a bicycle bicycle can can be be a a barrier-a barrier-a new new bike bike frost co sts the the equivalent equivalent of of 7 7 to to 8 8 months months wages wages in costs in Tanzania, for example-but example-but in some areas areas bicycles bicycles Tanzania, for in some c an be be bought bought on on credit. credit. IIn India, government government can n India, empl oyees are are entitled entitled to to loans loans for for vehicle vehicle purchase, purchase, employees whi ch can can be be used used to to buy buy a a bicycle. bicycle. Bicycles Bicycles work work which well in congested congested urban urban areas, areas, where where they they have have some some well in advantages over private private automobiles-they automobiles-they are are easeasadvantages over ier to park park and and store, store, less less expensive expensive to to own own and and ier to o perate, and and do do not not contribute contribute to to air air pollution. pollution. Their Their operate, range and freight freight capacity, capacity, however, however, are are limited. limited. range and The technological leap leap to to the the internal internal combustion combustion The technological engine allows for for mu ch higher onger engine allows much higher speeds, speeds, l longer distan ces, larger larger freight freight capacity, capacity, and and greater greater comcomdistances, fo rt. The The disadvantages disadvantages of of the the internal internal combustion combustion fort. engine are technological technological complexity, complexity, movement movement engine are largely constrained to to roads, roads, high high first first cost cost and and largely constrained o perating cost, cost, and and environmental environmental damage damage due due to to operating fo ssil fuel fuel burning. burning. There There are are also also secondary secondary effects, effects, fossil su ch as as injury injury and and death death due due to to accidents accidents and and land land such use for roads roads and and parking. parking. Despite Despite its its disadvantages, disadvantages, use for the internal combustion combustion engine engine is is the the dominant dominant the internal transp ort technology technology in in the the industrialized industrialized and and develdeveltransport o ping world, world, and and its its use use is is growing growing rapidly. rapidly. oping Passenger Road Transport Transport Technologies Technologies Passenger Road Me chanized passenger passenger road road transport transport in the develdevelMechanized in the o ping w o rld is per fo rmed by a wide range of oping world is performed by a wide range of te c hn o l o gies, in c luding m o peds, private aut o s, and technologies, including mopeds, private autos, and buses. Developing countries countries have have only only about about 1 1 buses. Developing per c ent as many aut o s per pers o nas d o es the United percent as many autos per personas does the United States (see table table 3-17), 3-17), but but their their automobile automobile fleets fleets States (see are gr o wing rapidly. Further, the s c rappage rate (the are growing rapidly. Further, the scrappage rate (the f ra c ti o n of vehi c les retired ea c h year ) is very l o w in fraction of vehicles retired each year) is very low in devel o ping co untries, due t o the high value pla c ed developing countries, due to the high value placed
1 2 2 W o r l d B a

Automobiles Automobiles per 1986 Country Country 1 , 0 01,000 0 people, 1986 0.7 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 China India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 India 1.8 8.9 8.9 Kenya Kenya . . . . . . . . . . . . . Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . 21.9 Thailand 21.9 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87.0 Brazil 87.0 234.0 234.0 Japan Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . 444.8 444.8 West West Germany Germany . . . . . . United States . . . . . . . 673.4 United 673.4

SOURCES: SOURCES: Fleet size and growth growth from from Energy Energy and and Environmental Environmental AnalyOptions for improving Improving Transportation Transportation Energy Energy sis, sis, Inc., Inc., "Policy Options Efficiency Efficiency in Developing Countries, Countries," contractor contractor report report prepared the Office of Technology Technology Assessment, Assessment, March March 1990. 1990. pared for the Population Population from World Bank, World Development Report 1989 (New NY: Oxford Oxford University University Press, 1989). Figures Figures forthe (New York, NY: Press, 1989). United States include include both autos and and lighttrucks;data United States data arefrom Oak Oak Ridge Ridge National National Laboratory, Transportation Transportation Energy Energy Data Data Book, Edition Edition 10, ORNL-6565 ORNL-6565 (Oak (Oak Ridge, Ridge, TN: TN: Oak Oak Ridge Ridge National Laboratory, September September 1989). 1989).

o n any any vehicle vehicle that that runs. runs. Therefore, Therefore, choices choices made made on n ow as as t o the fficiency of cles in now to the energy energy e efficiency of new new vehi vehicles in devel oping countries countries are are doubly doubly important-these important-these developing vehi cles will soon be jority of leet and vehicles will soon be the the ma majority of the the f fleet and they n the oad a ong time. they will will be be o on the r road al long time. A lthough their their technical technical efficiency efficiency (vehicle (vehicle kilokiloAlthough meters traveled per per liter uel consumed) consumed) is is lower, lower, meters traveled liter of of f fuel vehi cles in developing countries countries average average a ch vehicles in developing a mu much higher load f actor ( persons per cle) than ose in higher load factor (persons per vehi vehicle) than th those in industrialized countries. Buses Buses are are chronically chronically overoverindustrialized countries. lloaded, oaded, and and mopeds mopeds and and motorcycles motorcycles designed designed for for o ne often often carry carry two two or or more. more. Shared Shared ride ride technolotechnoloone gies, such as as jitneys, jitneys, are are co mmonly f illed beyond beyond gies, such commonly filled rated capacity. This This increases increases the the efficiency efficiency of of the rated capacity. the transp ortation system system i -n terms terms o of passengertransportation i-n f passengerkil ometers per per liter liter of of fuel fuel consumed, consumed, but but reduces reduces kilometers sa fety and and comfort. comfort. safety The vehicles themselves themselves are are of ten less less energyenergyThe vehicles often efficient e fficient than those those found found in the industrialized w orld. They They are are often often based based on on designs designs that emphaworld. that emphasize sturdiness and and dependability dependability under under adverse adverse size sturdiness co nditions (poor (poor roads, roads, chronic chronic overloading, overloading, little conditions little maintenan ce) over over energy energy efficiency. efficiency. maintenance) Freight Road Transport Transport Technologies Technologies Freight Road R oad freight freight movement movement in the developing developing world world Road in the is pr o vided m o stly by diesel tru c ks ( with is provided mostly by diesel trucks ( w i t h the the ex ception of ch of ck f leet exception of China China where where mu much of the the tru truck fleet uses gasoline) and and these these tru cks account account fo ro ver hal f uses gasoline) trucks for over half

Weary, Some

to Pedal power, The Urban Edge, vol. 14, No. 2, March 1990.

Chapter 3--Energy Services in Developing 7 9 Chapter Developing Countries 79

Table 3-18-Energy Efficiency of Trucks in Selected Countries

Energy consumption Energy consumption (megajoules per (megajoules per metric ton per kilometer) per kilometer) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.6 2.3 2.3 1.8 1.8

Country/ region OECD OECD OECD OECD India India India China China China

name Truck name Mercedes Benz Mercedes Benz 1217 1217 (1979) (1979) Man-VW 9136 (1980) Man-VW TATA 1201 TATA 1201 SE/42 SE/42 Ashok Leyland Leyland Beaver Jiefang CA-10B

Capacity Capacity (metric tons) (metric 5.9 5.9 5.0 5.0 7.5 7.5

7.0

Dongfeng EQ140 Dongfeng EQ140

4.0 5.0 5.0

NOTE: OECD NOTE: OECD and and Indian Indian trucks trucks use use diesel, diesel, Chinese Chinese trucks use use gasoline. gasoline.
SOURCE: SOURCE: J. Yenny and L. Uy, World Bank, Transport "Transport in China, China," staff working working paper paper No. No. 723, 723, 19S5, 19S5, p. 70. 70.

the energy energy used used for for road road transport transport in in the the developing developing w orld. 123 The movement movement of of height height is is required required for for world." m ost economic economic activity, activity, and and iin many developing developing most n many co untries the the prices prices of of diesel diesel fuel fuel are are kept lower than countries kept lower than gas oline prices. prices. IIn the United United States, States, for for example, example, gasoline n the gas oline and and diesel diesel prices prices at at the the pump pump are are almost almost the gasoline the same, while in in India India diesel diesel is is slightly slightly less less than f same, while than hal half the price of of gasoline: gasoline.124 the price
2 Trucks in the developing world are relatively Trucks i n the developing world are relatively 'inefficient, ine fficient, requiring requiring 1.5 1.5 to to 2.5 2.5 times times as as much much energy energy

Despite these modal modal shi fts, the rail systems in Despite these shifts, b oth countries countries still account account fo r signi ficant energy both for significant use. China rail networks use. China and and India India have have extensive extensive rail networks that consume, respectively, respectively, 72 72 percent percent and that consume, and 29 29 per cent of of transportation transportation energy energy (see (see app. app. 3-A). 3-A). The The percent Indian system, although although in relative decline, decline, still Indian rail rail system, in relative still c arries a a significant significant am ount of reight and passencarries amount of f freight and passengers (see table -19), using being gers (see table 3 3-19), using a a mix mix of of steam steam ( (being phased out), diesel, diesel, and and electric electric locomotives. locomotives. phased out), Impli cations for for Energy Energy Demand Demand Implications R oad transport-private transport-private autos autos for for passengers passengers and Road and tru cks for for freight--has freight--has become become the the dominant dominant mode mode trucks of transportation in in developing developing countries. countries. Increases Increases of transportation in population, income, income, and and auto auto ownership ownership rates rates in population, ((autos autos per per person) person) combine combine to to yield yield a increase a rapid rapid increase in the number number of vehicles. Increasing Increasing urbani in the of private private vehicles. urbanizati on leads leads to to greater greater congestion, congestion, which which redu ces the zation reduces the e fficiency of of private private vehicles. vehicles. Urbanization, Urbanization, ecoecoefficiency n omic growth, growth, and and industrialization industrialization require require large large nomic in creases in in freight freight movement, movement, as as producers producers move move increases of these these factors ffarther arther from from markets. The net effect effect of factors will be an an increase increase in o provide provide will be in the the energy energy needed needed t to transp ortation services. services. transportation Impr ovements iin the energy energy efficiency efficiency of of develdevelImprovements n the o ping world world transport transport systems systems can can be oping be made made in in several areas. Road-going Road-going vehicles vehicles in the developing developing several areas. in the w orld are are less less energy-efficient energy-efficient than than comparable comparable world vehi cles in in the the industrialized industrialized world, world, suggesting suggesting that vehicles that e fficiency gains gains can can be be made made in vehicles efficiency i n the t h e vehicles

t o move move one one tto on no of freight one one k kil om meter as to f freight ilo e t e r as co mparable trucks trucks in in the the OECD OECD countries countries (see (see table table comparable 3 -18). IIn developing countries, countries, however, however, trucks trucks 3-18). n developing must cope with with more more difficult difficult operating operating conditions: conditions: must cope the roads are are typically typically congested congested and and poorly poorly mainmainthe roads tained, aggravating technical technical inefficiency inefficiency and and accelacceltained, aggravating erating wear. erating wear. Rail Technologies Rail Technologies

Railr oads are are significant significant providers providers of of transport transport Railroads servi ces only only in in India India and and China, China, and and in in these these two two services co untries the the rail rail share share of of total total transport transport is declining countries is declining rapidly due to to the the much much faster faster growth growth of of road road rapidly due transp ort. IIn China, ffo example, the the share share of of transport. n China, or r example, passenger traffic using using railways railways dropped dropped from from 69 69 passenger traffic per cent in in 1965 1965 to to 48 48 percent percent in 1987. Railway Railway percent in 1987. f reight transport transport shows shows the the same same trend trend of of decreasing decreasing freight relative use.125 Similarly, India shows shows a a mode mode shift shift relative use." Similarly. India t oward roads roads and and away away from from rail rail for for both both passenger passenger toward and freight traffic.' traffic.126 and freight

account for 50 to 75 of ed for road transport in the developing compared to 30 to 35 percent for many 123 Transportation Aspirations industrialized countries. Clell G. industrialized countries. G. Harrsl, Harrsl, Meeting "Meeting the the Transportation Aspirations of of Developing Developing Countries: Countries: Energy and and Environmental Environmental Effects," Tru Proceedings of Energy and and Environment Environment in the 21st 21st Centuty Century Conference Conference (Cambri'dge, dge, MA: Massachusetts Institute Proceedings o f the the Energy in the MA: Massachusetts Institute of of Technology, Technology, March March 1990). 19901. cks
a 12,4 c 1989). Ene c S. presented at the New Energy Technologies Transportation and Overview of Transport Development in 125p r og y Development Workshop, September 1989. Development Workshop, Ottawa, Canada, September 1989. . I n f u K 126joy Irving Hoch, Cbaru Gadhok, Kapil Thukral, Energy "Energy and and TransportThe Indian Experience, Experience,' Pacific and Asian Journal ofEnergy, ofEnergy, n t Dunkerley, Irving o r u i 1987, pp. 1-12. 1-12. 1987, pp. f m a r u o t i o n r a n 5 n

80 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries Countries

Table 3-19-Comparison 3-19-Comparison of Rail Systems Systems in China, India, and the United States
United United States States

China China

India India

services use servi ces is increasing increasing rapidly, technologies technologies in use today t oday are not not as efficient efficient as they could could be, and the energy impacts technology energy impacts of te chnology choices choices made today today will be felt far into will be f elt f ar int o the the future. future.

53,000 62,000 235,000 3,000 6 2,000 2 35,000 Length of rail rail network network (km) . . . . . . 5 Rail energy use (percent of 3 27 51 3 27 total transport total transport energy energy use) use) . . . . 51 Percent of freight freight traffic traffic carried carried 47 45' 30 47 by rail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 30 Percent of of passenger passenger traffic traffic 22 55 1 22 carried by H-l H . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 SOURCES: P. Kuirun and S. Guojle, Overview P. "Overview of Transport Development Development in China," China, paper presented at the New Energy Technologies I

Conclusion Conclusion
This survey survey of of energy services how This services and h ow they are provided n developing pr ovided iin developing countries countries reveals three common co mmon characteristics. characteristics. First, First, each each service service is proprovided by a wide range of te technologies fuels. vided chnologies and f uels. Cooking C ooking is provided provided by technologies technologies ranging ranging from from open large number number o pen frees frees to to microwave microwave ovens, ovens, with a large of possibilities of passenger passenger of possibilities in between. The range range of transp ort services services is is similarly similarly wide, wide, varying varying from from transport foo t to to jet jet passenger passenger airplanes. airplanes. Second, Second, there there is in foot almost all cases a well well-established transition bealm ost all cases a -established transiti on be tween technologies, depending depending on on two two main main factors-factors-tween technologies, in come and and availability availability of of f uel supplies. supplies. Third, the income fuel servi ces are are currently currently being being provided provided by by technolotechnoloservices gies whose efficiency efficiency could could usually usually be be significantly significantly gies whose impr oved. improved.

Transportation and and Development Development Workshop, Workshop, Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada, Canada, September 1989; 1989; Tata Tata Energy Energy Research Research Institute, Institute, TERI Energy Data Directory and and Yearbook Yearbook (TEDDY) (TEDDY) 1988 1988 (New (New Energy Delhi, India: India: 1989); 1989); International Energy Agency, World EnEnergy Statistics and Balances: 198 198 f-87 (Paris: OECD, 1989); Oak Ridge National National Laboratory, Laboratory, Transportation Energy Data Book: E&ion E&ion10,OHNL Association of American Railroads, Railroad Facts 7989 DC: American American 7989 (Washington, DC: Association of Railroads, 1990). f Railroads, 1990). 6565, 1 o 9 8 9 ;

A s s o c i a t i o n themselves. Impr the transportation transportation themselves. Improvements n the o f ovements iin A m such r i in frastruc ture, suech as as improved impr oved roads roads and and reduced reduced infrastructure, c n, a n also increase energy efficiency. congestio can

M ode choices, choices, such such as as a a movement movement away away from from Mode private autos and and motorcycles motorcycles to to buses buses and and bicycles, bicycles, private autos c an help. help. Of Of course, course, all all these these options options have have benefits benefits can and costs: these these will will be be explored explored later later in in this this OTA OTA and costs: study. The important important conclusions conclusions for for this this section, section, study. The h owever, are are that that the the demand demand for for transportation transportation however,

congestion, can also increase energy efficiency.

The following chapter chapter will examine how how the The following will examine the many types of of energy energy used used in developing countries countries many types in developing fo ssil fuels, fuels, electricity, electricity, and and biomass biomass fuels--are fuels--are fossil pr ovided, including including domestic domestic production, production, imported imported provided, supplies, energy distributi on system, supplies, the the energy distribution system, and and the the energy conversion sector. sector. energy conversion

Chapter 3--Energy Chapter 3--Energy Services in Developing Countries Countries .81

Appendix 3-AEnergy Balances for Selected Developing Countries

The following following energy energy balances balances begin with InternaInternational ti onal Energy Energy Agency Agency (IEA) (IEA)127 energy production, trade, and stoc cr hange totals for for commercial commercial fuels. fuels. This This 12 stock e nk echange g y totals provides a common pr vides co n framework f for evaluating individual p or o d umm c ot i ramew o n ork for countries co untries and and for for comparing comparing different different countries. countries. Biomass Biomass , fuels in the f uels for for the the traditional traditional sector sector are are not not included included in the t r a d e country-specific co untry-specific IEA IEA data data and and so so are are separately separately added added , on based on country country specific specific field field survey survey data. The The year chosen c hosen for for each each country country is determined determined primarily by the year for for which which the the biomass biomass energy energy data data is available. available. In contrast contrast to to the the IEA IEA procedure, procedure, energy supply supply pr production, oduction, conversion, conversion, and and transformation transformation losses losses are are not not separately tallied tallied in the the energy energy balances balances presented presented here. here. Instead, these these losses losses are are carried carried forward forward into into the sectoral sectoral breakd owns in in proportion proportion to to the the TEA IEA sectoral sectoral breakdown breakdown breakdowns of energy energy use. use. This This more more a ccurately indicates indicates sectoral sectoral accurately energy usage by by showing showing the the losses losses incurred incurred in in providing providing energy usage energy to each each sector. sector. energy to Ele ctricity is is initially initially divided divided into into two two categories categories in in the the Electricity fo llowing energy energy balances: balances: nonthermal nonthermal and and thermal. thermal. following N onthermal electricity electricity is is given given in in terms terms of of the the electric electric Nonthermal p ower output--the output--the joule joule equivalent equivalent of of kWh. kWh. Thermal Thermal power ele ctricity is is given given in terms of of thermal energy input; input; losses losses electricity in terms thermal energy in curred in in generation, generation, transmission, transmission, and and distribution distribution are are incurred kept the total. total. Nonthermal Nonthermal and and thermal thermal electricity electricity kept in in the quantities, therefore, can can not not be be directly directly compared. compared. quantities, therefore, The IEA convention convention for for electricity electricity production production divides divides The TEA the hydroelectric output output in in kWh kWh by by 0.385 0.385 in in order order to to make make the hydroelectric hydr oelectric power power appear appear to to be be on on the the same same "thermal thermal hydroelectric equivalent input basis as thermally generated electricity equivalent when listed on the the basis basis of of fossil fossil fuel fuel input. input. The The TEA IEA when listed on subsequently multiplies the sum of hydr o ele c tri c ther subsequently multiplies the sum of hydroelectric "theri n p u t mal equivalent and and thermal thermal electric electric inputs inputs by by 0.385 0.385 to to mal equivalent"
b a s i s a s t h e r m a l l y g e n e r a t e d e l e c t 1r 27 i In ct em i a tt i y ona

get an electric get electric power power output output in kWh. kWh. Thermal and hydroelectric hydr oelectric "thermal thermal equivalent" equivalent losses losses are lumped lumped ttogether ogether as an energy energy production production loss. loss. This convention of "thermal equivalents" leads t to a This convention of thermal equivalents leads oa large misrepresentation for large misrepresentation in the the energy energy balances balances fo r hydrohydrorich ri ch countries countries such such as Brazil. The The procedure procedure used used here here avoids convention of assigning assigning a thermal thermal av oids the TEA IEA co nvention of equivalent fo for hydroelectric other nonthermal equivalent r hydr oelectric or or o ther n onthermal power. power. It also generating plants plants als o carries carries the losses losses in thermal generating through to noted At the thr ough t o the end-use end-use sectors sectors as as n oted above. above. A t the sectoral se ctoral level, the thermal thermal and and nonthermal nonthermal electricity electricity are are added together of added together directly directly to to indicate indicate the the average average amount amount of energy, including used by by ea each sector. energy, including fossil fossil fuel, fuel, used ch se ctor. These These ffigures igures are shown shown in brackets brackets to to denote denote that the figure figure is a sum of onthermal ele ctricity o utput and a sum of n nonthermal electricity output and thermal thermal energy energy input. This procedure procedure l owers the energy energy supply otals input. This lowers supply t totals co mpared to to those those usually usually found found in the the literature. literature. compared

Per centage breakdowns breakdowns by by end-use end-use sector sector are are based based on on Percentage the IEA data; data; percentage percentage breakdowns breakdowns by ce the IEA by energy energy servi service within end-use sectors sectors are are based based on on country-specific country-specific within end-use surveys as noted. noted. The The end end servi ce breakdowns breakdowns are surveys as service are the the best best estimates A could could make make given oor quality estimates that that OT OTA given the the p poor quality and and pau city of of available available data data These These breakdowns breakdowns are are provided provided paucity here only as as an an indication indication of importance of here only of the the relative relative importance of sele cted energy energy services; services; they they should should not not be be construed construed t o selected to be a precise precise quantitative quantitative measure measure of energy consumed consumed be a of the the energy in delivering these these services services o rt o be be a precise listing of in delivering or to a precise listing of energy services and and their their interrelationships. interrelationships. Some Some imporimporenergy services tant energy services services and uel mixes verlooked in tant energy and f fuel mixes are are o overlooked in many ce breakd owns. F or many of of the the available available energy energy servi service breakdowns. For example, lighting and and the use of onal f uels are example, lighting the use of traditi traditional fuels are largely ft o ut of of the ctor. In on, a largely le left out the industrial industrial se sector. In additi addition, a number ortant energy energy services services are ft o ut number of of imp important are generally generally le left out of breakdowns: an an example example might of the the breakdowns: might be be the the use use of of animals r tra ction in culture and rop animals fo for traction in agri agriculture and the the use use of of c crop residues to residues to feed feed them.

Agency,

Statistics and Balances: 1971-87

82 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries

Table 3A-I-Brazil: ( 1180 3A-lBrazil: Energy Supplies and Services, 1987 Exajoules (10 Joules= 0.9478 Quad) and Percent of National and Percent of National Total Total 1 %Joules= 0 . 9 4 7 8 Q u a d )
Fossil fuels Fossil fuels Eleotricity Eleotricity Gas Gas 0.112 0.112 0.112 0.112 1.8% 1.8% 0.007 0.007 0.1% 0.1% 0.1c/0 O.1% 0.003 0.003 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 0.10 0.10 1.65% 1.65% . 1.65% 1.65%

coal Oil Energy supplies supplies c oal Oil Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.124 0.124 1.55 Production 1.55 1.040 Trade/stock change . . . . . . . . 0.315 1.040 -0.073 Electric generation . . . . . . . . . -0.044 -0.073 _ -0.167 Nonenergy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -0.167 0. 40 2.349 Total energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 2.349 6.6% 38.6% Percent of total . . . . . . . . . . . . .6.6% 38.6% 4Energy services services 0.202 Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0.202 Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3% 3.3% Cooking/heating . . . . . . . . . 3.3% Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Refrigeration . . . . . . . . . . . . Television . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Air conditioning . . . . . . . . . Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . _ c Commercial' . . . . . . . . . . . . . Commercial 0.026 _ 0.42% Commercial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.42% 0.42% Cooking/heating . . . . . . . . . 0.42% Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Refrigeration . . . . . . . . . . . . Air conditioning . . . . . . . . . Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Industrial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 0.40 0.56 . 40 0.56 Industrial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.58% 9.22% Motor drive . . . . . . . . . . . . . Motor Process heat . . . . . . . . . . . 6 . 5 % Process 9.22% Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Electrochemical . . . . . . . . . 1.417 Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 . 00 1.417 (O* 23.3% Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 05Q 23.3% _ 20.4% Road . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20.4% 0 0.43% Rail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.43% _ Air . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.74% 1.74% 0.77% Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.77% 0.146 Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.146 2.4% Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4%
0 *

Nonthermal Thermal Thermal Nonthermal 0.681 - 0.681 0.023 - 0.023 - 0 . 1 0.117 1 7 21 1) ((0.8 0.82 ) . (0.169) (0.169) 2.8% 2.8% 3 0.77%' 0.77% 0.67% 0.67% 0.90% 0.90% 0.1 7% 0.1 7% 0.09% 0.09% 0.21 % 0.21
(0.159) (0.159) 2.62% 2.62% 0.20% 0.20% 1.1570 1.1570 0.45% 0.45% 0.52% 0.52% 0.29% 0.29% (0.46) (0.46) 7.57% 7.57% 3.7170 3.7170 3. 18'/0 3. 18% 13.15?40 o.15?40 0.53% 0.53% (0.005) (0.005) 0.08% 0.08% 0.08/0 0.08%

Biomass Biomass C a n e // W Wo oo od d/ / Cane alcohol' Charcoal alcohol Charcoal 0.91 1.39 0.91 1.39 -0.02 -0.02 1.39 0.89 1.39 0.89 14.6% 22.9% 14.6% 22.9% 0.44 0.44 7.24% 7.24% . 7.24% 7.24% 0.44 0.44 7.24% 7.24% 7.24% 7.24%
00.43 . 48 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9%

Other Other 0.13 0.13 -0.01 -0.01 0.12 0.12 2.0% 2.0% . .
.

Total Total 4.90 4.90 1.37 1.37 0.00 0.00 -0.19 -0.19 6.08 6.08 100'YO 100YO 0.86 0.86 14.1% 14.1% 12.1% 2.1% 1 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.170 0.170 0.2% 0.2% 0.21 0.21 3.5% 3.5% 11.0''/o .O% 1.270 1.270 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 2.71 2.71 44.6% 44.6% 3.7% 3.7% 40.2% 40.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 1.86 1.86 30.6% 30.6% 27.6% 27.6% 0.5% 0.5% 11.7c/0 .7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.30 0.30 4.9% 4.9%

0.018 0.018 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.75 0.75 12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 12.3% 0.126 0.126 2.1 % % 2.1

0.026 0.026 0.43% 0.43%

Not - N o t available or not applicable. () data in in parentheses parentheses is is sum sum of of nonthermal nonthermal energy energy output output and and thermal thermal energy energy input. 0 data input. a The use use o of bagasse for for energy energy production(cogeneration)isdivided production(cogeneration)isdivided proportionately proportionately betweenindustrialpprocess betweenindustrialpprocess heat a The f bagasse heat and and road road transport. transport. Electricity Electricity generation generation within the the cane cane industry industry is is not not given given separately. separately. b This is is mostly mostly for for water water heating(10 TWh). TWh). Only Only 0.5 O.5 TWh TWh were were for cooking. b This c Excludes public public buildings. buildings. 'Excludes SOURCES: Adapted Adapted from from international international Energy Agency,World Agency, 1971 -87(Paris:OECD, 1989); Energy Statistics Statistics and and Balances: Balances:1971 1989); and and Brazilian Brazilian Ministry Ministry of of Mines Mines 1988), provided by Howard S. Geller, American and Energy, National Energy Balance for for Braz111988 (Brasilia, 1988), American Council for for an an Energy Efficient Efficient communication, Mar. 8,1990. Economy, Washington, DC, and Sao Paulo, personal communication.

Chapter 3--Energy Services in Developing Developing Countries Countries 4,83 Chapter 83

( 1 18 0 Table 3A-2-China: Energy Supplies and Services, Services, 1987 Exajoules (10 Joules = 0.9478 Quad) and Percent of National Total and Percent of National Total 1 %Joules = 0 . 9 4 7 8 Biomass fuels Fossil fuels Biomass fuels Electricity fuels Electricity Q u a d Fossil )
coal coal .- .18.1 Production . . . . . . . . . . 18.15 -0.80 Trade/stock change . . . Electric generation . . . -3.15 5 Nonenergy . . . . . . . . . . 14.20 Total Total energy . . . . . . . . 14.20 percent of total . . . . . . 49.5% Energy services services Residential . . . . . . . . . 5.23 Residential . . . . . . . . . 18.2% 18.2% Residential Cooking . . . . . . . . . . 8.7% Space heating . . . . . 9.5% Lighting Lighting . . . . . . . . . . 0.31 Commercial/public . . . 1.1 % 1.1% Commercial/public . . . Industrial . . . . . . . . . . . Industrial 9.41 Industrial . . . . . . . . . . . 32.8% Industrial Process heat Process heat. . . . . . 32.8% Mechanical drive . . Mechanical 0.59 Transport. Transport . . . . . . . . . . % Transport. Transport . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 Road . . . . . . . . . . . . Road Rail . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 % Rail Air . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.00 Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . 0.98 Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . 3.4%

. . . Production

Energy supplies supplies

-1.40 -1.40 -0.69 -0.59 -0.16 -0.15 3.18 11.170 11.170 0.12 0.4% 0.4% 0.27 0.9% 1.77 1.77 6.2% 3.4% 2.8% 0.67 0.57 2.0% 0.8% 1.2% 1 .2% 0.44 1.570 1.570

-5.32 5.32

Oil Oil

Gas Gas -0.46 0.46 -0.02 -0.02 _ 0.44 0.44 1.670 1.570 0.07 0.07 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.00 0.00

Nonthermal Thermal Thermal Nonthermal -0.33 - 0.33 - 0 . 00.00 0 - 3 . 7 3.76 6 (( 4 4. 1 0 ) 1 4.3'/o 14.3%

Crop Crop

. 3.4 3.4
_

Wood Wood

3.4 3.4 11.870 11.870

3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 11.2% 1 1.2%

3.2 3.2 11.2% 1 1.2% 10.5'/0 10.5% 0.7% 0.7% .

Dung Dung 0.16 0.15

Biogas Biogas

0.16 0.15 0.5% 0.5% 0.16 0.15 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1%

0.1% 0.1%

0.03 0.03 _ _ 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

Total Total 31.0 31.0 -2.2 -2.2 -0.16 -0.15 28.7 28.7 100*k 100% 12.4 12.4 43.% 43.% 31 .4% 31 .4% 10.3% 10.3% 1.370 1.370 0.77 0.77 2.7% 2.7% 14.7 14.7 51 .3% 51 .3% 37.8% 37.8% 13.5% 13.5% 1.24 1.24 4.3/0 4.3% 0.8% 0.8% 2.4% 2.4% 1.270 1.270 1.92 1.92 6.7/0 6.7%

(0.27) (0.27) 0.94% 0.94% -

3.3 3.3 1 1.5% 11 .5% 11.5% 11.5%

0.94% 0.94%
(0.19) (0.19) 0.66% 0.66% (3.06) (3.06) Win 10.7YO

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

0.1 0.1 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% _

1.3% 1 .3% 0.00 0 . 00 0.00 0.00

0.37 1.3*/0 1 .3%

10.7% 10.7%
(0.08) (0.08) 0.286 0.285

0.28% 0.28%

(0.50) (0.50) 1.T% 1 .7%

- Not available or not applicable. ( )) data data in in parentheses parentheses is is sum sum of of nonthermal nonthermal energy energy output output and and thermal thermal energy input. input. SOURCE: Adapted from International Energy Agency, Wodd Enargy Statistics and Balancos:1971 Energy, contractor report report prepared prepared for for the the Office Office of of Technology Technology Assessment, Assessment, 1990. 1990. Energy," contractor -

1989); and Vadav

87 ( P a r i s : O E C D , V a d a v " C h i n a

1 '

9 S

8 s

9 ) m

; i l

a ,

84 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries Countries

18 Table 3A-3-lndia: E Energy Supplies and Table 3A-3-India: nergy S upplies a n d Services, 1985 Exajoules E x a j o u l e s (10 ( 1 0Joules = 0.9478 Quad) and Percent o f National National To tal and Percent of Total 1

%.1oules Q u a

= d

Energy supplies Energy supplies Production Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Trade/stock change . . . . . . . . Electric Electric generation . . . . . . . . . Nonenergy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percent of total . . . . . . . . . . . . Energy services Energy services Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Residential Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Residential Cooking/water heating . . . . Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Appliances . . . . . . . . . . . . . Commercial/pubiic . . . . . . . . . Commercial/pubiic . . . . . . . . . Cooking/heating . . . . . . . . . Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Appliances . . . . . . . . . . . . . industrial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . industrial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Process Heat . . . . . . . . . . . Motor Drive . . . . . . . . . . . . . Lighting Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Appliances . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Road . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Road Rail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rail Air . . . . . . . . . . . .. .:.....
a Agriculture Agriculture' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Motor Drive. Motor Drive.... . . . . . . . . . Traction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

0 . 9 4 7 8 Fossil fuels Fossil fuels coal Oil Gas coal Oil Gas 3.16 1.29 0.17 3.16 1.29 0.17 0.48 0.03 0.48 -0.11 -0.05 -1.29 -0.11 -0.05 -0.09 1.90 1.57 0.12 1.90 1.57 0.12 18*/0 1. 3% 21% 18% 1.3% )
0.06 o.7% 0.6%

Electricity Electricity Nonthermal Nonthermal Thermal Thermal

Biomass Biomass Wood Wood 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 10*/0 10% 0.78 0.78 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8%
Dung Dung 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 13% 13% Crop Crop 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 18*/0 18%

0.20 0.20 - 1 _

. 4 1.45 5

50 0.00

Total Total 8.5 8.5 0.5 0.5 -0.09 -0.09 8.9 8.9 10 0% 100% 4.2 4.2 47% 47% 4370 4370 3.9% 3.9% OA% 0.4% 0.20 0.20 2.2% 2.2%

(1.65)/19% (1.65)/19%

0.39 0.39 4.4% 1.9% 1.9% 2.1 % 2.1% 0.03 0.03 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.40 0.40 4.5% 4.5% 3.1 % 3.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.77 0.77 8.7% 8.7% 7.1 % 7.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.15 0.15 1.7% 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.7%

0.007 0.007 0.0870 0.0870 0.08% 0.08% _ 0.113 0.113 1.3% 1.3% 1.3Q / o 1.3%

(0-20) 2.2% _ 1.8% 1.8% o.4% o.4%

(0.09) (0.09) . . 0 'a 1.0% OA% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6%

0.02 0.2% 0.2?!

1.61 1.61 1/Pk 18% 1/Pk 18%

0.05 0.05 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.04 0.04 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
_ _

1.2 1.2 14% 14% 14% 14% .

1.6 1.6 18*/0 18% 18*/0 18%

(0.97) (0.97) 10.9% 10.9% _

10.0% 10.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

0.23 2.6% 2.6%

3 . -

(0.04) M 0.5% _ 0.5% 0.5%

1 3.1% %

_
-

0.003 (0.28) 0.003 ( 0 . 2 8 ) 0.03% 3 . 1 3.1% % 0.03%

* * 1.1% 1.1% OA% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 3.1 3.1 3 5'/0 35% 2 3% 23% 10.8% 10.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1 . 0 1.0 - 1 1 . 811.8940 940 7.1% - .. 7 1 % 3 8 . % 3.8% - 0 . 80.8% % - 0 . 40.43 3 - 4 . 84.8% % 4 4.l% .1% - o . 7o.7% %

e. Not - N o t available or not a aplicable. () 0 data in parentheses is sum of nonthermal energy output and thermal energy input. Small. a baseline data data from from the the international international Energy Energy Agency Agency for petroleum petroleum use use in agriculture agriculture have have been modified modified to correspond correspond better better with with TERI TERl energy data. a baseline energy data.
SOURCE: Adapted from from international international Energy Energy Agency, Agency, World Energy Statistics SOURCE: Adapted Statistics and and Balances:1971-87 (Paris:OECD, 1989); Tata Energy Energy Research Institute, Institute, TEDDY, op. op. cit., footnote 58; and Ashok Dosai, contractor contractor report prepared for the Office of of Technology Assessment Assessment and and personai personai communication.

Chapter 3-Energy Services in i n Developing Countries 4,85 Chapter Developing Countries 85

( 1 15 0Joules) and Percent of National Total Table 3A-4-Kenya: 3A-4-Kenya: Energy Energy Supplies and Services, 1980, Petajoules Petajoules (10 1 Fossil fuels %Joules) a n d P Fossil e r c e n t Biomass fuels Electricity fuels Electricity Biomass fuels o f N a t i o n a l Residues coal Oil G a s Nonthermal Thermal Wood' Total Residues Energy supplies supplies coal Oil Gas Nonthermal Thermal Wood Total T o t a l Production 3.82 - 320 9.3 333 Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.82 320 9.3 333
a

Trade/stock change . . . . . . . . Electric generation . . . . . . . . . Nonenergy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percent of total . . . . . . . . . . . . Energy services Energy services Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Residential Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Residential Cooking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Commercial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Commercial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cooking/heating . . . . . . . . . Lighting Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Industrial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . industrial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . industrial Informal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Formal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Formal. Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Road . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Air . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

0.42 0.42

0.42 0.1%

78 78 -6.1 -6.1 -2.3 -2.3 70 70 17.1% 17.1%

0.44 - 0.44 6 . 1 6.1 (10.4) 2.5% (2.19) (2.19) 0.53% 0.53% 0.32'/0. 0.32%. 0.21% 0.21%
(1.92) (1.92) 0.47% 0.47%

_ -

_ 9.3 9.3 2.3% 2.3% 9.3 9.3 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%. 2.3%. _

320 320 78 8% % 7 253 253 62% 62% 62%. 62%. 3.5 3.5 0.85% 0.85% 0.85% 0.85% 56 56 13.6 13.6 9.4% 9.4% 4.2% 4.2%

79 79 0.0 0.0 -2.3 -2.3 410 410 100% 100% 271 271 67% 67% 65% 65% 2% 2% 6.2 6.2 1.F/0 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6%

0.42 0.1% . 0.1% .

6.84 6.84 1.67% 1.67% 0.53% 0.53% 1.14% 1.14% 0.75 0.75 0.18% 0.18% 0.05% 0.13% 0.13% 16.5 16.5 4.0% 4.o% 4.0% 43.3 10.6% 10.6% 6.9% 0.6% 0.6% 2.8% 6.6 1.6% 1.6%

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ -

0.47% 0.47%
(3.23) (3.23) 0.79% 0.79% 0.79% 0.79%

_ _

_ _
(1.06) (1.06) 0.26% 0.26%

_ _ _

76 76 18.5% 18.5% 9.4% 9.4% 9.1% 9.1% 43.1 43.1 10.6% 10.6% 6.9% 6.9% 0.6% 0.6% 2.8% 2.8% 7.7 7.7 1./0 1 %

() data in in parentheses parentheses is is sum sum of of nonthermal nonthermal energy energy output output and and thermal thermal energy energy input. input. 0 data includes both commmercial and i ofn c l u d e wood a Includes and noncommercial noncommercial uses wood;does not include wood used as a feedstock or as a construction material..Alsoincludes charcoal -that u s e d a s a f e e d s t o c k charcoal, of is produced from wood.This conversion takes roughly 110PJ of wood and converts it it into into about about 27 27 PJ PJ of of charcoal, of which which about about 1.3 1.3 PJ PJ is is lost lost during during odistribution. r a s a c oInternational n s t r u c t i o n SOURCE: Adapted from Adapted international Energy Agency, World Energy Statistics and and Balances: 1971 -87(Paris: OECD, 1989); 1989); and and Energy "Energy and and Development Development m a t ineKenya," r i Eds. a Phil l . . A Paul l Raskin, s o and i Steve n c Bernow, l u Beljer Institute, Kenya, Phil O'Keefe, and institute, Royal Swedish Academy Academy of of sciences, sciences, Stockholm, Stockholm. Sweden, Sweden, 1984. 1984. d e s c h a r c o a l

86 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries

15 (10 1 Table 3A-5-Taiwan: Energy Energy Supplies Supplies and Services, 1987, Petajoules (101 Joules) and Percent of National Total 1 Fossil Biomass %toules) a n d P e Fossil r c fuels e n t fuels Electricity Electricity Biomass o f supplies a coal t i o Oil n a l coal Oil Gas Nonthermal Thermal wood" Total Energy supplies N Gas Nonthermal Thermal wood Total Energy T o . . . . . t. . . . . . .a l38.9 Production 42.3 145 38.9 2 1 253 5.4 Production ... 42.3 145 21 253 5.4

Trade/stock change . . . . . . . . Electric generation . . . . . . . . . Nonenergy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percent of total . . . . . . . . . . . . Energy services Energy services Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Residential Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Residential Cooking/water heating heating . . . . Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Refrigeration . . . . . . . . . . . . Television . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Fans/air Fans/air conditioning conditioning . . . . . Commercial/public . . . . . . . . . Commercial/public . . . . . . . . . Cooking/water heating heating . . . . Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Air conditioning . . . . . . . . . Other Appliances . . . . . . . . Industrial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Industrial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Road . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Air . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

363 -220 -220 . 182 182 13.7'/0 13.7% 0.14 IN YO

0.12 0YO 10 IV O -VO

758 758 -58.3 -58.3 -46.8 -46.8 658 658 49.6% 49.6% 46.3 46.3 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 31.6 31.6 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%

8 278

.
2 1 21 1.6% 1.6% 2 1 21 1.6 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 3_ /0 _

42.3 42.3 3.2% 3.2% 19.6 19.6 1.5 1.5% 1 1.5% 3.5cY0 _ /0 4.0 4.0 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% _

(( 4 2 3 ) - 3) 31.9% 31.9% (87.5)/6.6% ( 8 7 . 5 y 6 . 6 %

1121 1121 0 0 -47 -47 1326 1326 100.% 100.%

0.3% 0.3% 1.0% I.O% 1.9% 1.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% (8(.22 (&.22 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% (255) (255) 19.2% 19.2% (2.7) (2.7) 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% O.1%

175 175 13.2% 13.2% 6.9% 6.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 83.2 83.2 6.3% 6.3% 2.8% 2.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 767.5 767.5 57.9% 57.9% 225 225 17.0% 17.O% 15.0% 15.0% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 50.3 50.3 3.8% 3.8%

0.3 0.3 1% %
_ _

180 180 13.6% 13.6%

314 314 23.7% 23.7% 222 222 16.7% 16.7% 15.0% 15.O% 0.1% 0.1% 1 .0' 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 3 37.3 37.3 /0 2.8% 2.8%

18.5 18.5 1.4% 1.4%

(13.0)/1.0% ( 1 3 . 0 ) / 1 . 0 % .

Not - N o t available or not applicable. () parentheses is sum of nonthermal 0 data in parentheses nonthermal energy output and thermal energy input. input. Small. aCharcoal is includedunder wood. The charcoal conversion effiency is assumed to be a a relatively high high level of50 percent percent by by energy. energy. SOURCE: Adapted Adapted From International International Energy Agency, World Energy Statistics and Balances:1971-87 (Paris: OECD, 19S9); 1959); and and personal personal communication, communication, Dr. Dr. Gwo-Tzeng, Energy Energy Research Research Group Group and and Institute Institute of of Traffic Traffic and and Transportation, Transportation, National NationalChiao Tung Tung University, University, Taipei, Taipei, Taiwan. Taiwan.

Chapter 3--Energy Services in Developing Countries 4,87 Chapter 87

( 1 18 0Joules =0.9478 Quad) Table 3A-6-United 3A-6-United States: States: Energy Energy Supplies and Services, Services, 1985,'Exajoules 1985,a Exajoules (10 and Percent of National Total and Percent of National Total 1 %Joules = 0 . 9 4 7 8 Q u a d ) b Fossil fuels Biomass' Fossil fuels Biomass Electricity Electricity
Energy supplies Energy supplies Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Production Trade/stock change . . . . . . . . Electric generation . . . . . . . . . Nonenergy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . percent of total . . . . . . . . . . . . Energy services services Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Residential Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Residential Space conditioning . . . . . . Water heating . . . . . . . . . . Cooking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Refrig/Freezers Refrig/Freezers . . . . . . . . . e Lighting/Other Lighting/Other . . . . . . . . . . Commercial/public . . . . . . . . . Commercial/public . . . . . . . . . Space conditioning . . . . . . Water heating . . . . . . . . . . Lighting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Industrial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Industrial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Heat'f . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Heat Motor Drive . . . . . . . . . . . . . Off-Highway transport . . . . Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Road . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Road Rail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Rail Air . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

coal coal 19.6 19.6 -1.8 -1.8 -14.8 -14.8 3.0 4.4% 0.1 0.1% O.1%
0.1 0.2% 2.6 3.8% 3.8% 0.9%

Oil Oil 20.9 20.9 8.9 8.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.8 -1.8 26.9 26.9 39% 39% 1.5 1.5 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 1.2 1.2 1.7% 1 .7% 1.6/0 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 4.3 4.3 6.2% 6.2% (11.8%)9 (11.8%)9 19.3 19.3 28.% 28.% 23.1% 23.1% 0.7% 0.7% 3.9/00 3.9%0 0.3% 0.3%

Gas Gas 16.5 16.5 1.2 1.2 -3.0 -3.0 14.7 14.7 21.3% 21.3% 5.3 5.3 7.7% 7.7% 5.3% 5.3% 1.8/0 1.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 2.9 2.9 4.2% 4.2% 2.9% 2.9% 0.1i 0.1% 6.5 6.5 9.4% 9.4% _

Nonthermal T h ermal Nonthermal Thermal c 2.53 2.53

0.06 0.06
d

a Wood' Wood 2.80 2.80

18.9 18.9
((2 21 . 5 ) 31 .2% 31.2% (7.6) (7.6) 11.% 11.% 4.3% 4.3% 1.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 1.6% 1.6% 2.8% 2.8% (6.6) (6.6) 9.6% 9.6% 6.1% 6.1% 0.1% 0.1% 2.5% 2.5% (7.3) (7.3) 10.6% 10.6% 1.2% 1.2% 7.1% 7.1% (0.03)/*% (0.03)/*%

402 -0.02
2.8 2.8 4.1% 4.1% 1.0 1.0 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

Total Total 62.3 62.3 8.4 8.4 -1.8 -1.8 68.9 68.9 100/0 100% 15.5 15.5 22.5% 22.5% 13.1% 13.1% 3.5% 3.5% 11.2'''/0 .2% 1.6% 1.6% 2.9% 2.9% 10.8 10.8 15.7% 15.7% 10.6% 10.6% 0.3% 0.3% 2.5% 2.5% 22.5 22.5 32.7% 32.7% 19.4% 19.4% 7.1 % % 7.1 0.9% 0.9% 19.3 19.3 28 8% % 2 23.1 % 23.1 % 0.7% 0.7% 3.9% 3.9% 0.3% 0.3%

_ _

1.8 1.8 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% -

0% %

h Agriculture 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Agriculture' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9% 0.9% 9% 0.9% 0.9% Not available or not applicable. -Not ()data in parentheses is sum of nonthermal energy output and thermal energy energy input. "Small. Small. aNote that the the !EA lEA data data used used as as a framework framework for for this energy energy balance balance differs differs slightly slightly from from official U.S. U.S. energy energy statistics. statistics. See, See, for for example, example, Energy Energy Information lnformation allote that Administration, MonthiyGwrgy Month/yGwrgy Review, January 1990. b 58 percent 42 percent Hydroelectric and other other (geothermal, b split split 58 percent Nuclear Nuclear and and 42 (geothermal, solar, etc.).

d Imports Imports of of electricity electricity into into the the United United States States are are primarily primarily hydroelectric hydroelectric based based power power from Canada. Canada. e lncludes clothes clothes washers washers and and dryers, dryers, dishwashers, dishwashers, lighting, lighting, and and miscellaneous. miscellaneous. e Includes f lncludes fuels USed USe d for for cogeneration cogeneration applications. applications. f Includes g0il a n d gas gas applications are are combined combined here. here. gOil and h This does does not not include include indirect indirect inputs (fertilizer, (fertilizer, etc.). etc.). h This SOURCE: Adapted from from International International Energy Energy Agency, Agency, World Energy Statistics SOURCE: Adapted Statistics and Balances: 1971 -87( Paris: OECD, 19S9); 19S9); and and Paui Paui D. D. Holtberg, Thomas Thomas J. Woods, Woods, Marie Marie L. Li Lihn hn and Nancy C. McCabe, Baseline Baseline Projection Data Data Book: Book:1989 OR! Baseline Baseline Projection Projection of of U.S. U.S. Energy Energy Sum* and Demand to to 2010 (Washington, DC: Gas Research institute, 1990).

88 Energy in in Developing Developing Countries Countries

Appendix 3-BSources 3-BSources for Table 3-9

As A s used used here, here, efficiency efficiency is is approximately approximately the the first-law first-law efficiency; e fficiency; that is, the the total total heat heat transfer transfer to to the material to being processed processed divided by the heat input t o the system. This is is to to be be contrasted contrasted with the second-law second-law efficiency, efficiency, which whi ch compares compares the heat transfer transfer achieved achieved in the process process with the maximum maximum possible possible heat that could could be be transferred transferred fo r the same same purpose purpose by any system system using the same same energy energy for input. For For more more information, information, see see Efficient Efficient Use Use of of Energy, Energy, Conference Proceedings, Proceedings, No. No. 25, 25, American American Institute Institute AIP Conference of Physics, Physics, New New York, 1975. 1975.
Cooking: The The primary source source for for traditional traditional and m odern cooking cooking technologies technologies is is Samuel Samuel F. F. Baldwin, Baldwin, modern Biomass Stoves: Stoves: Engineering Engineering Design, Design, Development, Development, and Dissemination, op. op. cit., cit., footnote footnote 17. 17. An An enormous enormous range range Dissemination, of efficiencies have have been been reported reported for for the the open open fire, fire, of efficiencies ranging 2 to to 30 30 percent. percent. A A list list of some 45 45 reports reports on on ranging from 2 of some traditi onal cooking cooking technology technology efficiencies efficiencies was was develdeveltraditional o ped by by Jas Jas Gill Gill in in 1981 1981 and and is cited cited in in K. K. Krishna Krishna Prasad, Prasad, oped Woodbuming Stoves: Woodburning Stoves: Their Their Technology, Technology, Economics, Economics, and Deployment (Geneva: 1983). 1983). International International Labor Labor OrganiOrganiDepl oyment (Geneva: zati on, World World Employment Employment Programme Prog Research. Most Most zation, Research. of these reports, reports, however, however, do do not not cite cite a a source, source, nor nor any any of these details as to to how how such such an an efficiency efficiency figure figure was was derived. derived. details as Traditional Beer B e e r Brewing: Data D a t a are are f fr ro om m Frans Stallatu, -Improved Beer Cookers In Burkina Faso, Point, No. 10, 10, pp. pp. 10-14, 10-14, August August 1986. 1986. This This is is the the Boiling I m p Point, r o No. thermal e ff i c ien c y of heating the brew t o b o iling, n o t fo r thermal efficiency of heating the brew to boiling, not for ved the entire brewing brewing process. process. In In Burkina Faso, Faso, West West Africa, Africa, the entire B e onal dolo (beer) traditi (beer) cookers cookers using using 80-liter 80-liter clay clay jars jars traditional e r thermal have thermal efficiencies efficiencies of of 17 17 percent percent with with a a power power have C o of o utput of 80 80 kW fo ra cooker with ur j ars arranged arranged in output for a cooker with fo four jars in a a square, and 15 15 percent percent at 35 kW with jars arranged arranged in square, at 35 with the the jars in o k and a line with fires fires between between adjacent adjacent jars. jars. Simple Simple improveimprovea line e r with ments in stove stove design design and and the the use use of of aluminum pots raised raised ments in aluminum pots sfficiencies up to as high as 53 percent. e efficiencies up to as high as 53 percent. I h e eefff en nc cy y o off tth he e b brr ew wiin ng g pp ss s cca an n a alls so o b e n T The f ii cci ie e rr oo cc ees b e determined by calculating calculating the the total total amount amount of of use ful determined by useful B energy provided. Mnzava, Mnzava, cited cited below, below, has has estimated estimated that that energyrprovided. u 0.12 to to 0.5 0.5 m'of m3 of fuelwood are needed needed to to brew 100 liters. k ssuming i A that 1 1 m' m3 of cked fuelwood weighs weighs 500 500 kg Assuming that of sta stacked kg n and has an an energy energy content content of of 16 16 M.I/kg M.J/kg fo ra otal of GJ; and has for at total of 8 8 GJ; a and assuming that energy is is used used t o bring the water o and assuming that the the energy to bring the water t to to a boil boil once once to to sterilize sterilize it and then t o maintain its F temperature at a a low low level level while while it ferments; the the energy energy temperature at it ferments; a required t o heat 100 liters of water t o a b o il f r o m ambient required to heat 100 liters of water to a boil from ambient s ( 20 'C) C) is is 100(80)4.186=14 100(80)4.186=14 MI. This This gives gives an an efficiency efficiency (20 o range of 0.3 0.3 to to 0.7 0.7 percent percent fo r the beer-brewing process. process. range of for the beer-brewing This very low low efficiency efficiency compared compared to to the the thermal thermal , This very e found for for dolo cookers cookers in in Burkina Burkina Faso Faso maybe maybe efficiency " fficiency found due to the the long, long, low low temperature temperature heating heating needed needed to to due to co ncentrate the the mash mash as as well well as as for for other other operations; operations. See: See: concentrate

E.M. Mnzava, "Fuelwood W. Fuelwood and Charcoal Charcoal In Africa," Africa, W . Palz, P. Chartier, and D.O. Hall Hall (eds.), Energy Energy From From Biomass, 1st E.C. C Conference on Biomass, Brighton, East Biomass, onference o n Bi omass, Bright on, East Sussex (London: Sussex (London: Applied Applied Science Science Publishers, Publishers, Ltd., 1980). 1980). Modern Beer Brewing: from Modern Brewing: Data are f rom Bernard B. Hamel et al., "Energy Analysis of 108 108 Industrial Pr ProcEnergy A nalysis of ocesses," figure of 79 79 percent is the theoverallboiler esses, 1980. The The f igure of percent is overallboiler efficiency e fficiency for for a modern modern brewery. This boiler boiler provides provides process pr ocess steam, steam, hot hot water, and and other other heating heating services. services. The The e fficiency of of the cooking cooking process process is is somewhat somewhat reduced reduced efficiency ffrom rom this level, but but no no separate separate estimate estimate was was available. available. this level,

The cent is based based o nat otal energy The value of of 6 6 per percent on total energy demand ra und by demand fo for a brewery brewery fo found by Hamelet et al., al., of of 1,439 1,439 Btu Btu per pound of of beer beer produced produced o r, equivalently, equivalently, 3.35 3.35 MI/kg per pound or, co mpared to to the the energy energy required o heat heat the the brew brew t o compared required t to to b oiling a o sterilize as in mparison boiling a single single time time t to sterilize it itas in the the co comparison made for the the traditional traditional technology. technology. made for
Tobacco obacco drying Tobacco Drying: The estimate of of t tobacco drying e fficiency is is from from RI. Mwand osya and efficiency Mwandosya and M.L. Luhanga, Energy Use Patterns Patterns In Tanzania, Tanzania, Center r Energy and Energy Use Center fo for and Envir onmental Studies, Studies, Princeton Princeton University, University, Report Report No. No. Environmental 180, February 1985; 1985; and and M.I. Mwand osya and 180, February Mwandosya and M.L. Energy Demand Demand Structures Structures in TanzaLuhanga, "Energy in Rural Rural Tanzania, Department Department of of Electrical Electrical Engineering, Engineering, University University of of nia,' Dar-es-Salaam, Dar -es-Salaam, Tanzania, Tanzania, 1984. 1984. Traditional Tea Drying: Drying: Tea Tea drying n the Traditional Tea drying is is based based o on the data Mwandosya and ove. They They data in in Mwandosya and Luhanga, listed listed ab above. estimate estimate that that 150 150 kg. kg. of of green green tea tea requires 9.4 9.4 GJ 6.1 of of o evap orate fuelwood, resulting resulting in in 30 30 kg. kg. of of dried dried tea. tea. T To evaporate 120 ( 120)IJ = 120 kg kg of of water water requires requires 2,260 2,260( = 271 271 MI of of energy, for an efficiency of percent. energy, for an efficiency of 2.9 2.9 percent. Traditional Baking: F or traditi onal bakeries, bakeries, Ahmed Ahmed Traditional Baking: For traditional and und 0.5 o 0.8 0.8 kg ood used and Elamgzoub fo found 0.5 t to kg of of w wood used per per kg kg of lour. Typi cal rati os fo r bread lour, 500 of fflour. Typical ratios for bread are are 720 720 g g fflour, 500 g g liquid, and 50 50 g g sugar sugar input utput. W ith liquid, and input per per kg kg of of bread bread o output. With spe cific heats C fo rf lour, 4.186 4.186 id/kg 'C C fo r specific heats of of 1.8 1.8 Id/kg 'C for flour, for water, C fo r sugar,and water, and and arbitrarily arbitrarily assuming assuming 4.0 4.0 Id/kg 'C for and n oting that that approximately approximately half half the the water water evaporates, evaporates, the the noting rest rest remaining remaining in in the the bread bread (Geller); then then the the energy energy required o bake bake 1 lour int o bread bread at C is : required t to 1 kg kg of of f flour into at 190 190 'C is: ((1.0)(1.8)(170) 1.0)(1.8)(170) + (0.7)(4.186)(80) + (0.35)(2260) + + (0.7)(4.186)(80) + (0.35)(2260) + ((0.35)(4.186)(90) 0.35)(4.186)(90) + + (0.09)(4.0)(170) (0.09)(4.0)(170)= 1.5 where it was assumed that cific heat heat of water remaining was that the specific of the the water remaining , 1assumed . 5 M I the , spe in the bread, bread, 0.35 kg, kg, remained 4.186 and hemical in remained 4.186 and the the c chemical w the h e r0.35 e rea ctions and and heating heating of vaporized steam were reactions of the the vaporized steam were i ored. t By ign mparison, 0.5 0.5 t o 0.8 ood have ignored. By co comparison, to 0.8 kg kg w wood have an an energy ntent of o 13 hmed and energy co content of 8 8t to 13 MI. Abdel Salaam Salaam A Ahmed and El of Fuelwood Consumption Consumption El Sheikh Elamgzoub, Survey Survey of in oum, Sudan : in Khartoum Province Province Industries ( (Khart Kharto um, S udan: Nati onal Energy Energy Administration, Administration, Ministry Ministry of of Energy Energy and and National Mining r the Research C ouncil, Sudan Sudan Renew Mining fo for the Energy Energy Research Council, Renewable oject, A pril 1985. oward S. able Energy Energy Pr Project, April 1985. H Howard S. Geller and and

Chapter 3--Energy Services in Developing 89 89 Chapter Developing Countries

Gautarn S. S. Dutt, Dutt, "Measuring Measuring Cooking Cooking Fuel Fuel Economy", Economy, Wood Fuel Wood Fuel Surveys Surveys (Rome: (Rome: 1983). 1983). Food Food and Agriculture Agriculture Organization Organizati on of the United Nations, Nations, GCP/1NT/365/SWE. Reddy and Reddy found found that 0.583 0.583 kg wood wood were used to t o cook cook 1 1 kg kg of maida, corresponding corresponding to to an efficiency efficiency of 16 percent. 16 percent. Amulya Kumar N. Reddy and B. Sudhalcar Reddy, "Energy Energy Use in a Stratified Society: Society: Case Case Study Study n Bangalore, of Firewood, Firewood, iin Bangalore,Economic Economic and and Political Political Weekly (India), vol. Weekly vol. 18, 18, No. No. 41, 41, Oct. Oct. 8, 8, 1983. 1983. Shirey and Selker list the efficiencies efficiencies of a number of traditional traditi onal and modem modem ovens ovens used in a variety of countries. co untries. Ovens Ovens in Somalia, Sudan, Sudan, Guatemala, Guatemala, ZimZimbabwe, and and Sri Sri Lanka Lanka have have typical typical measured measured efficiencies efficiencies of 1 1 to to 3 3 kg kg wood wood per per kg kg flour, flour, giving giving efficiencies, efficiencies, as as c alculated above, above, of of 3 3 to to 8 8 percent. percent. In In contrast, contrast, an an calculated impr oved wood-fired wood-fired Somali Somali oven oven is is cited cited as as using using 0.16 0.16 improved kg of of wood wood to to cook cook 1 1 kg kg of of f lour into into bread-an bread-an efficiency efficiency flour of 58 percent; percent; and and modem modem natural natural gas gas ovens ovens are are listed listed as as of 58 baking 360 kg lour int o bread bread using 1 GJ GJ of baking 360 kg of of f flour into using 1 of energy energy an efficiency efficiency of of 54 54 percent. percent. E. E. Shirey and J. Selker, -an and J. Bread Ovens," Ovens, Boiling Boiling Point, Point, No. 10, 10, pp. pp. 18-21,1986. 18-21,1986. "Bread
Modern Bakeries: Bakeries: Ho, Ho, Wijeysundera, and Chou found found Modern f irst-law efficiencies efficiencies for for a a modem modem industrial industrial bakery bakery in first-law in Singap ore to to be be 43 43 percent percent for for the the entire entire process, process, Singapore in cluding preparation preparation of of the the dough. dough. Second-law Second-law efficienefficienincluding c ies were were also also calculated calculated and and found found to to be be 15.5 15.5 percent. percent. cies Ho, N.E. Wijeystmdera, and Energy J.C. Ho, and S.K. Chou, "Energy A nalysis Applied Applied to to Food Food Processing," Processing, Energy Energy VOL VOL 11, 11, Analysis N o. 9, 9, 1986, 1986, pp. pp. 887-892. 887-892. No.

ergy Administration of Sudan, Khartoum, ergy Administration of Khartoum, September September 1985). 1985 ). Gandhi found for brick Gandhi found an efficiency efficiency of 6.4 percent percent fo r bri ck the irreversible irreversible reactions that kilns in India, representing representing the reactions that take place by take place during during firing. firing. The overallheatbalancefoundby Gandhi fora Bull Bull' was: energy in= 3.88 3.88 MI +0.29 +0.29 Gandhi s trenchwas : energy MJin in c carbon in brick; energy energy o out 61.4 per percent in dry arbon in ut is 61.4 cent in exhaust; exhaust ; 16.9 16.9 percent percent in moisture moisture in exhaust; exhaust; 6.4 6.4 percent percent in irreversible reactions; percent heat l loss of CO CO; in reactions; 4.0 4.0 per cent in heat oss of ; 0.3 percent carbon ash; and o other heat l losses 0.3 percent in c arbon in ash ; and ther heat osses ((by by difference) of this loss di fference) of 11 percent-presumably, percent-presumably, much much of loss was through types of of kilns kilns require require was through the kiln walls. Other Other types from 2 t to for firing. brick o 18 MI/brick fo rf iring. With With an average average bri ck size of of 108 108 in3 o or and an an average average bri brick size r 108(16.387) 108(16.387) cm3 cm3 and ck density of 1,800 density 1,800 kg/m3, kg/m3, this gives gives an an energy energy requirement requirement of o 18 MI/3.18 kg o r 0.637 t o 5.7 MI/kg. Sunita of 2 t to or to The Bri ck Industry in India : Energy Energy Use, Gandhi, "The Brick India: Use, Gandhi, and Development," Development, Ph.D. Ph.D. Thesis, Thesis, Trinity Tradition and C ollege, Cambridge, Cambridge, October October 1986. 1986. College,

estimates that that smoking smoking 1 1 kg kg Fish Smoking: Mwalyosi estimates of fresh fish fish requires requires 4 4 to to 5 5 kg kg dry wood. I f 70 percent of of fresh dry wood. If 70 percent of the fish is is assumed assumed to to be be water, water, then then it requires (2,260 (2,260 the fish it requires kg)= 1.6 1.6 MI to to evaporate evaporate the the water water compared compared Id/kg)(0.7 kg)= t o (4 (4 to to 5 5 kg)(16 MI/kg) = = 64 64 to to 80 of wood wood to to to 80 MI of a ccomplish the the task, for for an an efficiency efficiency of of 2.0 2.0 to to 2.5 2.5 percent. percent. accomplish Raphael B. Mwalyosi, "Management Management of of the ReserRaphael B. the Mtera Reserv oir in Tanzania, AMBIO , vol. 15, No. 1, 1, 1986, 1986, pp. pp. voir in Tanzania," 15, No. 30-33. 30 -33.
Traditional Brick Firing: Firing: Schmitt Schmitt estimates estimates 1.36 1.36 MI of energy is is required required per per kg kg of of bri ck produced produced in order t o of energy brick in order to evap orate moisture moisture from from the the raw raw brick brick (after (after drying drying in in the the evaporate sun ) and and heat heat it it to to a a firing firing temperature temperature of of 850 850 'C, C, and and an an sun) additi onal 0.2 0.2 to to 0.4 0.4 MI/kg is is needed needed for for the the chemical chemical additional rea ctions. Based Based on on observations observations at at six six sites, sites, an an average average reactions. of 2.5 MI fuelwood fuelwood and and other other organic organic matter matter were were used used of 2.5 per kg of of brick brick produced, produced, for for an an efficiency efficiency of of (0.2 (0.2 to to per kg 0.4 )/2.5 = =8 8 to to 16 16 percent. percent. It It should should be be noted noted that that these these 0.4)12.5 results were for for very very large large kilns, kilns, f iring typically typically 100,000 100,000 results were firing bri cks at at a a time. time. Klaus Klaus Schmitt Schmitt and and Werner Werner Siemers, bricks From Agricultural Agricultural Residues Residues and and Energy Energy UtilizaUtilizaEnergy From tion In Small Small Scale Industries Industries In The Sudan, Section Section 5.4, 5.4,

The ck and Uganda uses o 1.8 The bri brick and tile tile industry industry in in Uganda uses 0.5 0.5 t to 1.8 sta cked cubic cubic meters meters of wood per c ton ton of ck stacked of wood per metri metric of bri brick produced;with with 7,650 7,650 M.I/m for eucalyptus at kg cked m3 to give, ct on of kg/stacked give, at at best, best, 3,800 3,800 MJ per per metri metric ton of 3 /sta f o r m'to bri c k o utput. P o tential energy savings of 35 per c ent may brick output. Potential energy savings of 35 percent may e u c a l y p t u be possible simply simply with with better better f iig techniques techniques and and kiln be possible fiig kiln s a t co nstruction, and and by by the introduction of avities and construction, the introduction of small small c cavities and 5 0 into o rganic 1 materials into the the brick brick t o reduce reduce mass mass and and organic materials to impr ove the formity of iring. Using igures fo r improve the uni uniformity of ffiring. Using the the f figures for Sudan, this gives gives an an efficiency efficiency of out 5 5 to to 10 10 percent percent Sudan, this of ab about when hemical rea ctions need o 0.4 when assuming assuming the the c chemical reactions need 0.2 0.2 t to 0.4 igures fo r India gives an fficiency MI/kg; using using the the f figures for India this this gives an e efficiency of out 2 cent. "Uganda: Uganda: Energy Energy Efficiency Efficiency ImproveImproveof ab about 2 per percent. ment the Bri ck and and Tile Industry, World World Bank/UNDP ment in in the Brick Tile Industry,' Energy Sector Management Management Assistance Assistance Pr ogram, Mar ch Energy Sector Program, March 1989. 1989. g the same range Modern Brick Industry: Industry: Assuming the same range as as for irreversible c chemical reactions for the fo r Sudan, that irreversible hemical rea ctions fo r the pr ocess are are 0.2 0.2 t o 0.4 ired brick, a odem bri ck process to 0.4 MJ/kg of of ffired am modem brick ffactory actory has has an fficiency of -11%. The The relatively an e efficiency of 6 6-11%. relatively high high o bserved efficiency efficiency of of the the traditional traditional process process relative relative t o observed to m odem kilns due t o substantial substantial under firing in modem kilns is is largely largely due to underfiring in traditi onal kilns and corresponding corresponding l ow-quality pr oduct. traditional kilns and low-quality product. Energy Cal culated from from Bernard B. Hamel et Calculated Bernard B. et al. al. "Energy A nalysis of of 108 108 Industrial Industrial Processes," Processes, op. op. cit. cit. Analysis
Traditional Indonesia, a an estimated Traditional Foundry Foundry Work: Work: In Indonesia, n estimated 1 kg of of c harcoal is used per 1kg charcoal is used per kg kg of of aluminum aluminum melted melted and and c ast int o pots. pots. From From the CRC Handbook cast into the CRC Handbook of of Chemistry Chemistry and and Physics, oint of 933 OK Physics,the the melting melting p point of aluminum aluminum is is 933 OK and and its its spe cific heat heat varies varies linearly linearly with with temperature temperature from from C specific kJ /kgCat300K to to 1.19kJ/kg'Cat933'K. 1.19kJ/kgCat933K. The The energy energy kJ/kg'Cat300'K p needed o heat heat it o its oint is needed t to it t to its melting melting p point is then then given given by by = 0 DT=658 .9 T o melt the aluminum requires an MC id/kg. To melt the aluminum requires an . (CRC Handbook). Handbook). The The t otal process process additional 398 '398 Id/kg (CRC total

-Brick Kilns
B r i
33-718

Sweden: for the National En-

90 4 0 0 -- 9 0 -- 4

 Energy in 90 in Developing Developing Countries

Charcoal then requires 1,056 id/kg. Char coal has a calorific value of about about 33 33 MT/kg. M.T/kg. The The process process is therefore therefore about about 3 percent per cent efficient. efficient. World World Bank, Indonesia: Issues Issues and and Bank Energy Energy Options in the Energy Sector, UNDP/World Bank Sector Se ctor Assessment Assessment Program Program Repor& Repor& No. No. 3543 -IND, -IND, NoNovember 1981. vember 1981.

Modern Foundry work: Figure of of 40 40 percent from Modern Foundry work: percent is f rom Bernard B. Hamel et et al., "Energy A Analysis of 108 108 Bernard nalysis of Industrial Processes,' Industrial Processes, op. op. cit. cit. above, above, p. 282. 282.

Chapter Chapter 4

Energy Supplies in the Developing World

Contents Contents
Page Page 93 Introduction a n d Summary and Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 93 Overall Primary Primary Fuel Fuel Mix Mix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 The Overall
** * * * * * * oa al l . .... . . ... . . . ..*. . * . . .., ., 9 Co ,.. .*. ... **. ... ... ... ,., ... ..*, +t..* * , ,o , *.** **,9 9, 8a* * 9* * , * 4 4 * + o. * * , o a 95 * * * * * * . . ... ... ... ... ... ... *.. * .* * * ... * .*** O .i l . * * . * *.. .... * ..*..* **. .... ... *... ... Oil * +.*.+..*. + * + * 9 6 aao o 96 * aa ** * * * * . * * * * * * . * *** * * Refineries * . . Distribution * . ... Refineries and . .*-F. .* .....*.... and Distribution . . ... .*+. *..... *.. ... ... * ... .. ..*. ... ... ... .*** +* . .. .$++ 98 @ci S + + 9 8 @q . . Natural Gas 99 Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 . . , Biomass Fuels . . .*. . .+ee ** ," + o** * . , .**, Bi omass Fuels .. ... .*. ... ... ... ... .,. .,. .*. .*. .,. .,. ... ... ... ... .. . ,,*. **, ,, *, ..** *,, $ + , , ,*, * *, e* , 1100 00 +o*. *., . . Biomass 0 *.. *.. ... . . ... ... ... ... ... * *. . .... . . ... o. mass Resource Resource Base Base . ... *.. .*. .**. .. *.. *.. * .. . *. . **. o 0 ***+4.*.. 101 0 Bi , Rural . Biomass , 9 Markets 101 Bi o mass Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 * * * * * . . . * * Commercial Biomass Markets . . . ... ... ... Commercial. Biomass Markets ... ... ... ... ,@.. * *.. ..,q+ ****c+* 101 + 4. 4 . . ... ... ... , * * * . * * ** * * ** c* * 1 1 02 1 charcoal . ... . . ..*. ... ... ... ... .*. ... ... . .** * * ... ... ... ... .. .. 0 c har co al .. * . ... ... ... ... . * . .. ** ... .. * . * * 102 + +. ***. +.*. e . * , 1 0 4 * .1 * ... * * * * * * * * * * *... * ... ... ..*. .@** Go. *******e* 102 Bi omass Pricing Pricing .... Biomass . . ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... *.. *.. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...*

* e *@ ** ** * * .** * * 0e<* *a *e 03 Ele ctricity ... ... ... ... ... ..*. ... ... ... ... ... ... ..+. ... ... ... +* .* . * e 1103 Electricity oo + a oo 103 Ele ctricity Generation Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . 1 Electricity . . .0 ...2 . . . . . . . . . . . 103 Ele ctricity Transmission Transmission and and Distribution Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 Electricity * * Institutional .* * .. ... ... ..* .* 1+ Instituti onal Issues Issues . .. *. -.+. * * e + ** . ...+ +@ *.. *.. *.. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... * e .* ** ** @ 105 o . *.* Ele ctricity Consumption Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Electricity . ,... 106 106 106 o utlook for for Improvements Improvements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0 outlook . . . . . . . . . . . 106

Box Box

Box Box

9 999 4 -A. Refinery Refinery Technology Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * *.*...... 4-A.

0 4 5

Page Page

Figures
94 4 -1. Energy Energy Supply Supply Mix Mix in in the the Developing Developing W orld and and in the United United States, States, 1987 1987 . . . . . 94 4-1. World in the +.*.*. 4 -2. Energy Energy Supply Supply Mix for Selected Selected Regions Regions of oping W orld, 1987 95 4-2. Mix for of the the Devel Developing World, 1987 .. +. *.*. 95 4 -3. Primacy Primacy Energy Energy Production, Production, Consumption, Consumption, and and Exports Exports in in the the 4-3. Devel oping World, World, 1985 1985 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 95 Developing 4 4. Oil C o nsumpti o n by End Use Use in the Developing Developing W orld and 4-4. Oil Consumption by End in the World and in in the the United States, 1985 1985 ... .. ** . .. * + .q * * +* *..+, 97 United States, * .... ... .*.. ... ... . .... ... ... ...* .. +* ... * .*. **. ..*.,* *Q Q ** **+ + , 97 4 5. Ele c tri c ity Generati on by by Fuel Fuel Type Type in Selected Regions Regions of of the 4-5. Electricity Generation in Selected the 103 Devel oping World, World, 1987 1987 ... *.. ... ... .. +. ** * .* . .- *F* ** .* ** **+ .** + 103 Developing * ... . . . ... *... ... . .*. ... ** . ** - .* F c a* 4 6. Ele c tri c ity C o nsumpti o n by Se c t o r in Sele c ted Regi o ns of the 4-6. Electricity Consumption by Sector in Selected Regions of the 106 6 Devel oping World, World, 1985 1985 * * ... ... .*** 106 Developing . .. . ... * . .... *.. ... . ... * * * .... .e. *... ..*. * *,*... r *** n +*+ ... .. m
**

Figure

Page Page

Tables T a b les
Table Paige 4-1. 4 Energy Supply Mix, 1987 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 -2. Oil Oil Consumption Consumption by by End-Use End-Use Sector, Sector, 1985 1985 . . . ., * * *..*..... 4-2. 4 3. Bi o mass Energy Res o ur c es in Sele c ted Developing Countries Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 4-3. Biomass Energy Resources i n Selected Developing 1 4 4. Ele c tri c ity Generati o n by Fuel, 1987 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......... 4-4. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1987 . 4 1 0 4 . 4 -5. Electricity Electricity Consumption Consumption by by Sector, Se c t o r, 1985 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4-5. 1985 107 E n e r g y S u p p

Chapter 4 Chapter

Energy Supplies in the Developing World

Introduction and Summary
This chapter chapter provides provides an overview overview of the energy energy supply sector sector in the developing developing worldthe worldthe procprocesses and and technologies technologies by by which which energy energy is produced, produced, converted co nverted from from one one form form into into another, another, and and delivered to t o users. users. The The energy energy supply supply sector sector is critical critical for for e conomic development development for for two two reasons: reasons: first, first, ecoecoeconomic n omic growth growth depends depends on on the the availability availability of of reliable reliable nomic s ources of of energy; energy; and and second, second, the the energy energy supply supply sources se ctor absorbs absorbs a a large large share share of of investment--over investment--over 40 40 sector per cent of of the the total total public public investment investment iin some percent n some devel oping countries,' countries,l and out 15 15 percent percent of developing and ab about of fo reign assistance:The assistance.2 The energy energy supply supply sector sector also also foreign relies heavily on on other other resources resources that that can can be be scarce scarce relies heavily in the developing developing world, world, including including skilled skilled labor labor and and in the management, water, and and land. land. management, water, The energy supply supply sector sector is is critical critical to to economic economic The energy devel o pment. E co n o mi c gr o wth depends on the the development. Economic growth depends on availability of reliable reliable sources sources of energy, and and the the availability of of energy, energy supply sector sector absorbs absorbs a a large large share share of of public public energy supply and foreign aid aid investment. investment. and foreign The developing countries countries use use a a wide range of The developing wide range of energy sources. Coal Coal is is the the largest largest primary primary energy energy energy sources. s ource in in developing developing countries, countries, due due mainly to the the source mainly to co al-based energy energy sectors sectors of of China the coal-based China and and India, India, the tw o largest largest energy energy consumers consumers iin the developing developing two n the w orld. Excluding Excluding China China and and India, India, oil oil and and electricity electricity world. are the mainstays mainstays of of commercial commercial energy energy supplies supplies in are the in devel oping countries. countries. In In rural rural and and poor poor urban urban areas, areas, developing traditi onal biomass biomass fuels fuels are are the the primary primary energy energy traditional source. s ource. A lthough the the developing developing world world as as a a whole whole is is a a net net Although o il exporter, exporter, the the exports exports originate originate from from a a relatively relatively oil small number of countries. countries. Most Most of the countries countries in the developing world world depend depend heavily heavily on on imported imported the developing o il, and and these these imports imports consume consume a a large large fraction fraction of of oil, exp ort earnings. earnings. export
The commercial oil il The commercial energy supply systemcoal, system--coal, o and gas, and gas, and and electricity-requires electricity-requires large amounts amounts of of foreign fo reign exchange, exchange, skilled labor, labor, and trained managemanagement. I t is characterized in ment. It characterized by state ownership, ownership, in contrast traditional co ntrast to to supplies supplies of traditi onal fuels, fuels, which which are largely in private hands. largely

C ommercial energy energy supplies supplies iin many countries countries Commercial n many are unreliable and and of oor quality due due t oo perational are unreliable of p poor to operational ine fficiencies, rapid rapid increases increases in energy energy demand, demand, inefficiencies, pr oblems of of reaching reaching dispersed dispersed populations populations served served problems by inadequate transport transport systems, systems, and and inappropriate inappropriate by inadequate pri cing and and allocation allocation systems. systems. pricing Operati onal efficiencies efficiencies in the energy energy industry Operational in the industry are are s omewhat lower lower in in many many developing developing countries countries than than somewhat in the industrial industrial countries. countries. This This record record of poor in the of "poor" per formance often often reflects reflects the the older older equipment equipment and performance and di fficult conditions conditions under under which which energy energy facilities facilities difficult o perate. The The existence existence of of such such differences differences between between operate. o perational efficiencies efficiencies in in reasonably reasonably standardized standardized operational o perations suggests suggests that that improvements improvements are are possible possible operations iif f some some of these obstacles obstacles can can be overcome. overcome. Generalizati ons about about energy energy supplies supplies in developGeneralizations in developing countries obscure obscure the the heterogeneity heterogeneity of ing countries o f the the devel oping world. world. Performance Performance standards condeveloping standards vary vary considerably between countries, countries, as as do do prospects prospects fo r siderably between for expanding energy supplies supplies in the future. future. expanding energy in the

The Overall Primary Fuel Mix

Acco rding to to the the International International Energy Energy Agency Agency According ((TEA), IEA), coal coal supplied supplied 35 35 percent percent of oping of the the devel developing w orlds p primary energy3 in 1987 (table (table 4-1 4-1 a and world's r i m a r y energy' in 1987 nd ffigure igure 4-1), 4-l), followed followed by by oil oil (31 (31 percent), percent), biomass biomass ffuels uels (19 (19 percent), percent), primary primary electricity electricity (mostly (mostly hydrohydrop ower) (8 (8 percent), percent), and and natural gas ( 7 per cent). Some Some power) natural gas (7 percent). analysts believe instead omass is act the analysts believe instead that that bi biomass is in in f fact the largest source of of energy, supplying up o one-third one-third largest source energy, supplying up t to of energy in developing world. world. of primary primary energy in the the developing

Power Economics (Lo n d o n: B u t t e r w o r t h s , im.Monasinghe, Electric Power (London: 1 r ld Wo 1989 DC: 1989). Data Data include World Bank, Annual Report 1989 (Washington, DC: 1989). include ordy ordy International International Development Development Authority Authority (IDA) (IDA) and International Bank Bank 990). for and Development Development (TBRD) lending for Reconstruction Reconstruction and lending in in fiscal fiscal year year 1989. 1989.
3' 'Primary energy" refers to to fuels in their raw state, before they are processed into forms forms suitable suitable for for use by by final CODSUM ers. Primary Primary fuels fuels include include coal, oil, gas, gas, biomass, biomass, and and electricity electricity generated generated from from nuclear, nudear hydro, geothermal, geothermal, and and solar solar sources. sources ."Final energy, energy," suitable for for end-use end-use COnSUM pfion, includes includes electricity electricity generated generated from from fossil fossil fuels fuels as as well well as as primary primary electricity. electricity. For For countries countries with with fossil fossil fuel fuel electricity electricity generation generation facilities, facilities, the the amount amount of of electricity electricity in in the thefinal energy energy mix mix is is therefore therefore higher higher than than in in the the primary primary energy energy mix, mix, and and the the amounts amounts of of fossil fossil fuels fuels are are lower lower by by the the amounts amounts used used to generate electricity. to generate electricity. Electricity Electricity generated generated from fossil fossil fuels fuels is is not not included included in in primary primary energy energy in in order order to to avoid avoid double double counting. counting.

93 93

n e r g y in 94 E . Energy in Developing Developing Countries

4 Table 4-lEnergy Supply Mix, 1987 (percent) Total Rest of of Total I Rest United developing developing United developing developing Brazil world world States India Fuel China Brazil world world States India China Ener 24 17 35 38 6 coal 70 24 17 35 38 6 coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 gy 41 22 38 4 1 31 Oil ........ ' ... . . . . . . . . . . . 17 17 41 22 38 41 31 Oil 2 12 7 22 2 3 S u 2 12 7 22 Natural gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 3 Natural gas 9 26 8 Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 4 5 8 9 26 8 Other 5 8 p p 19 4 Biomass f ufuels e l s b. . . . . . . . . . . . 7 28 22 33 19 4 Biomass 28 22 33 l y 100 100 100 100 100 100 M 100 100 100 Total (percent) . . . . . . . . . . 100 100 100 77.9 9.6 6.9 42.0 85.2 77.9 Total (exajoules) . . . . . . . . 26.7 i 9.6 6.9 42.0 85.2 a lncludes hydropower, hydropower, nuclear, nuclear, geothermal, geothermal, solar, solar, and electricity produced from biomass. Converted heat equivalent. a Includes and electricity produced from biomass. Converted at heat equivalent. x b Note that that these these estimates estimates for for the the share share of energy energy supplied supplied by biomass biomass are lower than that that indicated indicated by detailed detailed field surveys. surveys. See, See, for example, figure b Note for example, figure 3-1 , and app. 3-A. NOTE: Total Total may may not not add add to to 100 100 percent percent due to rounding. 1rounding. SOURCE: International International Energy Energy Agency, World Energy Balances of of OECD Countries Countries 9Energy Statistics and Balances 1971 -1987 (Pans: OECD, 1989); !EA, Energy 1990). 1987-1988 (Paris: 1987 8 1 9 8 8 Figure Figure 4-IEnergy 1987 4-lEnergy Supply Mix in the Developing World and in the United States, 1987 7 ( P (exajoules) (exajoules) ( a r i Coal C oal p s : 29.8 O Coal e E 18.7 r C Oil Oil c D 31.9 31.9 , e Oil Oil Biomass ass 1 n 26.4 3.1 1 9 t 9 26.4 B i B i o m a Bi s omass s 0 ) 16.2 16.2 ( " gas ) Natural gas Ott h e r1 * 17.1 . O 17.1 Other+ Other+ N a t Natural u r a l ggas as 7.1 1 7.1 6 .8 6.8 6 . 06.0 Un n1 t taatte U ii t e d d SS es s Developing world Developing world 1
b

Includes "Includes hydropower, geothermal, other renewable, and nuclear converted converted at at heat heat equivalent. equivalent. Biomass Biomass numbers numbers may may be underestimates, see text, and alternative source, figure 1-2. SOURCE: SOURCE: International Energy Agency, World Energy Statistics Statistics and and Balances 19711971- 1987 1987 (Paris:OECD, 1989); 1989); lEA, Energy Energy Balances of of C o u Countries n t r i e s 1987-1988 1987-1988 (Paris: OECD, 1990). 1990).

The relative shares shares of of these these energy energy sources sources in in the the The relative o verall energy supply mix vary signi f i c antly a c r o ss overall energy supply mix vary significantly across di fferent regions regions and and countries, countries, clue due iin part to to different n part unequal endowments of of energy energy resources. resources. Coal Coal unequal endowments supplies about half half of of the the energy energy requirements requirements for for supplies about devel oping countries countries in in Asia, Asia, due due largely largely to to high high developing 4 levels of coal coal consumption consumption in in China China and and India (table levels of India 4 1 and f igure 4 2 ) . Oil is the ma j o r s o ur ce of 4-1 of 4 and figure 4-2). O i l is the major source co mmer c ial primary energy fo r m o st co untries of the commercial primary energy for most countries of the ( table devel oping world, world, India India and and China China being being the the notable notable developing ex ceptions. Natural Natural gas gas supplies supplies a a relatively relatively small small exceptions. f raction of of energy energy in in the the developing developing world, world, although although fraction in countries w with well-developed resources, resources, gas gas in countries i t h well-developed

of ten represents represents an an important important source source of in often of energy energy ( (in Mexi co, for for example, example, natural natural gas gas supplies supplies 20 cent Mexico, 20 per percent of primary energy energy consumed). consumed).s Bi omass fuels fuels of the the primary Biomass are ficant energy energy source source thr oughout the are a a signi significant throughout the devel oping w orld, particularly particularly in developing world, in rural rural areas areas and and in in the poorest countries. countries. the poorest Overall, the developing developing world world produces produces more more Overall, the energy than it co nsumes, and signi f i c ant am o unts energy than it consumes, and significant amounts of of b oth oil oil and and gas gas are are exported exported f rom developing developing both from co untries (figure (figure 4-3). 4-3). There There are, however, ma jor countries are, however, major disparities among countries: countries: only only a few developing developing disparities among a few co untries export export energy, energy, and and most most import import over over 50 50 countries per cent of commercial energy energy they consume. percent of the the commercial they consume.
1989), 1987 includes

@A), Statistics and Balances 1971-1987 4 estimates for biomass consumption converts electricity I estimates for biomass consumption and and converts electricity to to energy energy units units at at the the heat heat equivalent, equivalent,
n 51bid. t e m a

Chapter 4-Energy Supplies in the Developing World World 4,95 Chapter 95

Figure 4-2Energy Supply Mix for Selected Regions of the Developing World, World, 1987 1987
50 50
Exajoules

Figure 4-3-Primary Figure 4-3-Primary Energy Energy Production, Consumption, and Exports in in the Consumption, Developing World, 1985 Developing
40 40
Total production Total production (exajoules) (exajoules)

40 40

30

20

,n ;, . , :.,
China China India India
Brazil

~ = ~ ~

B ii o om ma B as ss s O tt h he O er r* * Natural a N a t u r a l gg as s Oi il l O

30 30

I
,--, N ~ Ne t eex xp po or t s

IZZZ2 Coal !ZZZ2 Coal

20 20

ISHII! Consumption ISI!II! Consumption

1 10 0
0

10 10

0
Rest o f Rest of developing world world

Includes hydropower, geothermal, geothermal, other other renewable, renewable, and and nuclear nuclear con'Includes hydropower, verted at best equivalent. Biomass numbers maybe underestimates, see text. SOURCE: International International Energy Energy Agency, Wodd Energy Energy Statistics and -1987 (Pans: OECD, 1989). Balances 1971 -1987

0
Coal Coal

Oil Oil

Natural g as Natural gas

SOURCE: Agency p Energy SOURCE: International Energy Agency,Worki Energy Statistics Statistics and and -1987 (Paris: OECD, 1989). Balances 1971 -1987 1989).

Coal
C oal production production and and consumption consumption in in the the developdevelopCoal ing world are are concentrated concentrated in in a a relatively relatively small small ing world number of countries. countries. China, China, India, South South Africa, Africa, S outh Korea, Korea, and and North North Korea Korea are are responsible responsible for for 96 96 South per cent of of the the total total coal coal production production in in the the developing developing percent w orld. China China al one accounts accounts fo r 65 percent of world. alone for 65 percent of devel oping world world coal coal production production and and 27 27 percent percent of of developing 6 w orld coal coal production.' production. world The largest consumer consumer of of coal coal in the developing developing The largest in the w orld is is industry, which accounts accounts fo ro ver 40 world industry, which for over 40 per cent of of total total developing developing world world coal coal use:The use. 7 The bulk bulk percent of the industrial industrial coal coal use use is is in in China. China. Other Other sigsigof the ni ficant coal-consuming coal-consuming sectors sectors are are electric electric utilities, utilities, nificant transp ortation (coal-burning (coal-burning locomotives), locomotives), and and the the transportation residential sector sector in in China, China, where where coal coal is is used used for for coo king and and space space heating. heating. cooking Rates of coal coal production production are are growing growing rapidly. rapidly. Rates of Hard co al pr o du c ti o n in A sia grew at an average Hard coal production in Asia grew at an average
p 59,

annual annualrate rate

of cent f rom 1980 o 1987, and of 5.7 5.7 per percent from 1980 t to 1987, and lignite pr o du c ti o n grew at 8.9 per c ent during lignite production grew at 8.9 percent during the the same period.9 This growth is expected t o continue. continue. same period.' This growth is expected to C oal quality developed w orld varies Coal quality in in the the less less developed world varies widely, both within and among among countries." countries.10 In widely, both within and In India India and most coal coal has has a ow sul fur and China, China, most a relatively relatively l low sulfur co ntent but ash content." content. ll There are few few content but a a high high ash There are washing orting processes processes at al mines, o the washing and and s sorting at co coal mines, s so the quality of coal coal supplies supplies is is unpredictable. unpredictable. In quality of I n China, China, fo r example, example, less less than ne-fifth of al mined for than o one-fifth of all all co coal mined is is cleaned c leaned before before combustion. combustion. The rest is used raw, limiting the efficiency efficiency of of combustion. combustion. limiting the The coal industry industry accounts accounts fo r ab out 16 cent of The coal for about 16 per percent of t otal commercial commercial energy energy investment investment requirements requirements in total in 12 llow-income ow-income developing developing c co ountries. u n t r i e s In : India and China, the largest al users, domestic s ources China, the largest co coal users, domestic sources 2 most of this investment. ffinance inan c e m o st of investment. In I n d i a a n d G overnment-owned entities entities are are responsible responsible ffo Government-owned or r m o st co al mining, transp o rt, and distributi o n most coal mining, transport, and distribution in in devel oping countries. countries. In In China, China, the the Ministry oal developing Ministry of of C Coal

production of

uses most of its coal for electricity generation. 7 5 so for is the same as I 8A 9 b Some developing countries do trade in South Africa is a coal exporter and the of Korea is Some individual developing countries do trade incoale.g., South Africa is a coal exporter and the Republic of Korea is a a coal coal importer. importer. s individual , i s op. cit., footnote 4. 1 9 d h 1 . tom 9 o E content. , e i 8 w 7 A 1 m p Energy IlTata Research Institute, TER! Energy Data Directory and Yearbook 1988 (New Delhi, India:1989); Vaclav Stall, "China's Energy," n p , 9 o r contractor report Assessment, 1990. contractor report prepared prepared for for the theOffice of of Technology Technology Assessment, 1990. i r o 8 t in 1983), p. 68. For 1982-92. n 1 2 o p 5 an f W d . d t i or u c a ld c ig t u

. 1985 data. The United States, in

96 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries Countries

f China's Industry controls controls about about 600 600 o of Chinas 20,000 20,000 Administrations mines, grouped grouped under under 84 84 Coal Coal Mine Administrations or o r Coal Coal Industry Industry Companies. Companies. The The remaining, remaining, mostly mostly smaller mines are are run through through local local governments governments at the provincial, provincial, county, county, or or prefecture prefecture level, level, or or as collective co llective township township and and village village enterprises. enterprises. In India, the government-owned government-owned Coal Coal India India Corp. Corp. accounts accounts for production. with fo r 87 percent percent of pr oduction. Coal Coal India, with 675,000 employees, employees, claims claims to to be the worlds worlds largest single corporate corporate employer." employer.13 The allocation allocation of supsupgovernment plies is is also also in the hands of a g overnment entity.

keep up with its growing growing coal coal production. production. IncomIncomplete and p poorly networks, backups plete oorly configured configured netw orks, ba ckups at mode contribute m ode transfer transfer points, points, and breakdowns breakdowns all co ntribute to the unreliability of the coal transport system. to of coal transport system. As As a result, coal-using industries must st stockpile to a a coal-using ockpile up t oa year's year s supply, or or turn to to other other fuels. fuels. Similar probprobl6 lems occur in India. India.' lems occur in
Oil Oil Petroleum Petr oleum products products are easy t to transport transport and versatile in in use in all all sectors at all all scales of versatile use in sectors and and at scales of o peration; consequently, consequently, they they play play an imp ortant r ole operation; important role in the energy energy sectors sectors of of developing developing countries. countries. These These in the attributes led to to an an average average annual annual growth growth rate attributes led rate of of 4.5 4.5 per cent fo ro il consumption consumption in developing w orld percent for oil in the the developing world 17 f rom 1971 thr ou ugh from 1971 t hro g h 1987. 1 9 8 7 .Oil consumption is expe to continue continue rising rising by by about about 3 3 percent percent per expected per 1 7 cted to 18 year, thereby d o ubling between 1985 and 2010. year, 0 i 1 thereby doubling between 1985 and 2010. 1 M c o on u m t i o n More than one-third of the the o oil consumed in the the re s than o nep -third of il co nsumed in ' i s devel oping world world is is used used for for transportation transportation (figure (figure developing 4-4 n d table 4-2). h e share of of o oil f or r 4 -4 a and 4-2). T The il used fo transp ortation varies rom 13 percent in China t o 42 transportation varies f from 13 percent in China to 42 per cent in in Latin Latin America--considerably America--considerably l ower than percent lower than the 62 per cent share the 62 percent share in in the the United United States. States. The The devel oping world, world, compared compared to to the the United United States, States, developing uses proportionally more more oil oil for for electricity electricity generagenerauses proportionally ti on and and for for industry. industry. The The entire entire developing developing world world tion co nsumes about about 25 percent less less o il than consumes 25 percent oil than the the United United States alone. States alone.

A lthough coal coal mining mining technologies technologies in in the the develdevelAlthough o ping world world are are diverse, diverse, the the major major coal coal producer producer oping 14 China-relies heavily heavily on on manual manual llab bout -China-relies a bo or. r. ' A About tw o-thirds of of the the extraction extraction from from large large mines mines iin two-thirds n China depends on on manual manual labor, labor, as as does does virtually virtually all China depends all pr oduction from from locally locally run run mines mines and and small small private private production pits. Not surprisingly, surprisingly, labor labor productivities productivities are are very very pits. Not l ow, averaging averaging less less than than 1 1 ton ton per per miner miner per per shift. shift. low, This rate is is significantly significantly lower lower than urrent U.S. U.S. This rate than c current rates, whi c h average ab o ut 10 t o ns per miner rates, which average about 10 tons per miner per per shift.15 shi ft.15 A lthough China China has has considerable considerable experience experience with with Although a wide variety of advan c ed undergr o und mining a wide variety of advanced underground mining te chniques and and has has the the ability ability to to produce produce most most of of the techniques the ma c hinery required, the co untry d o es n o t have machinery required, the country does not have su fficient capital capital or or technical technical expertise expertise to to modernize modernize sufficient its co al industry co mpletely. H o wever, surface its coal industry completely. However, surface extra c ti o n meth o ds, whi c h c an be less expensive, are extraction methods, which can be less expensive, are being used at many newly devel o ped sites. Five being used a t many newly developed sites. Five large pits are are now now under under development development in in China China with with large pits a t o tal initial c apa c ity of 50 milli o n t o ns per year. a total initial capacity of 50 million tons per year. The largest of of these these should should eventually eventually produce produce up up to to The largest 60 milli o n t o ns per year. 60 million tons per year. Transp ortation requirements requirements often often limit limit coal coal proproTransportation du c ti o n. In China, co al a cco unts fo r 40 per c ent of duction. In China, coal accounts for 40 percent of all all f reight movement, movement, most most of of whi ch is is by by rail. rail. China's Chinas freight which already overloaded transport transport system system is is struggling struggling to to already overloaded

The developing w orld o il production production is The bulk bulk of of developing world oil is developing co ncentrated in ew co untries 14 developing concentrated in a af few countries-14 co untries account account fo r over o19 ver 90 90 percent percent of oping countries for of devel developing A lth o ugh the devel o ping w o rld o il pr o du c ti o n. world oil production. A l t h o u g h t h e developing w o rld as a wh o le is a net o il exp o rter, the exp orts world as a whole is a net oil exporter, the exports o riginate f r o m a relatively small number of co unoriginate from a relatively small number of coun20 tries. M o st devel o ping co untries depend heavily tries. o n oil oil imports. imports. More More than than hal f of low- and and lower lower on half of the the low2 middle in co me co untries imp o rt 90 per c ent o r ore countries import 90 percent or m more 'middle-income Most

d e v e l is from Chinas Energy, op. cit., footnote 14Thi s t. more o p i one greater "Relative t- the United States, labor i d i s n g mechanization in China than in the United States. s c h e a p e r a n d c m u e c h a n i z a t i o is from of ca o 1 6F s n s i i s Kothari, Services, New Delhi, personal April 1990). Kothari, consultant, Isotem Services, New Delhi, India, personal communication, April 1990). o r u n o n m o r e op. cit., footnote 4.e i 171E4, e x p e n s i t r x s of , 18 e v s o a i e d o lp . 1989) Energy Project. Project. A o n 1989) International Energy m r cn i t production s a e 19 Th p a . ,l Ss w o u and Angola. op. cit., footnote 4. e e Argentina, Colombia, and Angola. ERA, op. cit., footnote 4. d ,o w . lf d a0 r o and Indonesia-account n 2 o t countries-Mexico, e for over 60 percent of LDC oil exports. M e x p e i, n f F n o a e c t p i e e r v t n e g r e n t o c e 4 n a t e
o e

contractor " I D E A , Inc., "Clean Coal Technologies Technologies for for Developing Developing Countries, Countries," contractor report prepared for for the the Office Office of of Technology TechnologyAssessment,May May 1990. 1990.

Of

op. cit., footnote 4.

Chapter 4--Energy Supplies in the Developing Developing World World 4,97 Chapter 97

States, 1985 1985 (exajoules) texajouiesi Figure 4-4-Oil Consumption by End Use in the Developing World and in the United States,
Industry Industry 5.6 5 6

-,nd-try
ity Electricity 3.1 Transportation Transportation 18.5 18.5

Transportation 8.4 8.4

Other"
4.8

Transformation* Transformation*
D ng g ww d De ev ve e ll o p i n oo r rl ld *Refinery use and losses. agricultural, and and nonenergy. nonenergy. *Residential, agricultural,

Un n ii t e d S U Stta atte es s

J
13 13 10 10 23 23 35 35 16 16 4 4

4. 2. Y 4

Electricity y y Electricity 1.2 1.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ................ ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .::::::::::::. .....O . . . . .t. . h Other** e r * * ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. . 6.1 6.1 .: :::. ... Transformation* Transformatlon* 1.2 1.2

SOURCE: International International Energy Energy Agency, Agency, World Energy Energy Statistics -1987 (Paris: OECD, 1989) Statistics and Balances 1971 -1987 1989) lEA, Energy Balances of of OECD Countries Countries 1987). 1970/1985 1970/1985 (Pans: OECD, 1987).

Table 4-2-Oil Consumption by End-Use Sector, 1985 (percent)

Total Total developing developing world world

Sector Electricity Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . b Transformationb ........ Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transportation . . . . . . . . . Other c . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . d Nonenergy Nonenergy ' . . . . . . . . . . . Total (percent) . . . . . . . Total (percent) Total (exajoules) . . . . . Total (exajoules)

Asia' Asia 12 12

China China 15 15

Africa Africa 13 13 5 5 18 18 41 41 17 17 6 6 100 100 3.5 3.5

Latin Latin America America 12 12 10 10 16 16 42 42 16 16 4 4 100 100 9.1 9.1

United States States United 4 4 4 4 14 14 62 62 1 1 11 6 6 100 100 29.9 29.9

10 10 24 35 16 16 3 3 100 100 7.5

10 10 40 40 13 13 19 19 4 4 100 100 3.9 3.9

100 100 24.0 24.0

a excluding China. China. a excluding transformation includes losses, refinery use, and statistical differences. c Other Other is is largely largely residential residential and and agriculture. agriculture. d Non-energy use use includes includes waxes, waxes, asphalt, asphalt, and and lubricants. lubricants. d Non-energy NOTE: Totals Totals may may not not add add to to 100 100 percent percent due due to to rounding. rounding. SOURCE: International Energy Agency, World Energy -1987 (Paris: OECD,1989); 1989); lEA, Energy Energy Statistics Statistics and and Balances 1971 -1987 Energy Balances Balances of of OECD Countries Countries 1970/1985 (Paris: OECD, 1987). 1970/1985 (Paris:

of their commercial commercial energy; energy; almost almost all all of of the imports of their the imports are in the the form form of of o il (see (see app. app. IA). 1A). By By comparison, comparison, are in oil the United States States imports imports about about 17 17 percent percent (net) (net) of of the United its energy, of of which whi c h 90 per c ent is in the fo rm of o il its energy, 90 percent is in the form of oil 21 continued expansion expansion O fo il o r oil oil products.' products. The or The continued Of oil co nsumption imposes imposes an an economic economic burden burden on on develdevelconsumption o ping co untries, either in the fo rm of fo reign oping countries, either in the form of foreign ex change for for imported imported oil oil or or fo r investment il exchange for investment in in o oil expl o rati o n and devel o pment. Investment in the o il exploration and development. Investment in the oil supply in f rastru c ture is co mparable with that in the supply infrastructure is comparable with that in the ele ctricity sector, sector, each each accounting accounting for for about about 40 40 electricity per c ent of t o tal co mmer c ial energy investment in the percent of total commercial energy investment in the 22 devel oping w w or rld. developing o ld.'
2 Printing 1990). t Printing Office, February February 1990). E op. cit., footnote 22 n W er o r d 1 g B

In most developing developing co unties, natural ources In most counties, natural res resources su ch as as oil oil and and gas gas are are considered considered state state property. property. such Ownership or other other economic economic rights o these these natural Ownership or rights t to natural res ources are are n ot bought bought and and s old with face resources not sold with the the sur surface rights (as in the United United States), States), but r rights (as in the but are are reserved reserved fo for the state t o expl o it o r t o co ntra c t o ut t o third parties. the state to exploit or to contract out to third parties. Inm ost oil-exporting oil-exporting developing developing co untries, supreme supreme Inmost countries, auth o rity o ver o il and gas is legally vested authority over oil and gas is legally vested in in a a c entral g o vernment entity -( e.g., the Ministry of central government entity-(e.g., the Ministry of Oil Oil in Egypt or or the the Ministry Ministry of of Petr oleum and in Egypt Petroleum and Minerals Minerals in Oman ) , whi c h delegates se c t o ral o versight and and in Oman), which delegates sectoral oversight o perati o nal resp o nsibility t o a nati o nal o il co mpany operational responsibility to a national oil company ((e.g., e.g., the the Egyptian Egyptian General General Petroleum Petroleum Corp.). Corp.). I In n
Us.

Energy Review December 1989, p. 68.

 Energy i in n D eveloping C ountries 98 Developing Countries

practice, pra ctice, however, however, there there are are wide wide disparities disparities among among different di fferent countries countries in the actual actual relationships relationships among among executive exe cutive power, power, sectoral sectoral ministries, ministries, and and national national operating o perating entities. entities. In oil-exporting oil-exporting countries, countries, such such as Argentina A rgentina and Algeria, Algeria, the national national operating operating comcompanies have have more more power power than than the the ministries ministries they they depend on, on, due due to to the the companies' companies autonomous autonomous sources s ources of of revenue revenue from from significant significant oil oil production. production. n oil-importing In contrast, contrast, iin oil-importing countries, countries, such such as Sudan, the the national national oil oil companies companies have have little power. power.

to foreign oil for ffurther urther discouragement discouragement t o fo reign o il companies companies fo r the development of o oil for the development of il fields fields fo r domestic domestic consumpconsumption export uncertainty over ti on rather than exp ort is un certainty o ver the availability of fo foreign for of availability reign exchange exchange fo r the remittance remittance of profits. pr ofits. Despite these disadvantages, U.S. oil Despite oil companies companies in recent in recent years have increased increased their investments outside n developing o utside North North America, America, particularly particularly iin developing countries. co untries. The The prospect prospect of adding to to corporate corporate reserves f the cost cost of d omestic expl oration 23 reserves at hal half domestic exploratioe apparently more than than compensates compensates for for the the unceruncerapparently more tainty of foreign foreign investment. investment. tainty of

Only the the wealthier wealthier oil-exporting oil-exporting developing developing councountries invest invest much much of of their their own own money money in in exploration exploration and development. development. A Alll the poorer poorer ones, ones, and and the the l the ma jority of of the the others, others, rely rely on on the the international international oil oil majority industry for m ost of of the required c apital and industry for most the required capital and te chnical expertise. expertise. The The "enabling enabling mechanism" mechanism technical under which foreign foreign oil oil companies companies invest invest in in develdevelunder which o ping co untries varies varies widely rom co untry t o oping countries widely f from country to co untry, but but certain certain aspects aspects are are widespread. widespread. GenerGenercountry, ally, the ministry ministry in in charge charge of of the the sector sector authorizes authorizes ally, the the national oil oil company company to to negotiate negotiate exploration exploration the national rights with foreign foreign companies. companies. This This negotiation negotiation may may rights with require the formation formation of of a a formal formal joint joint venture venture with with require the the national company. company. More More typically, typically, however, however, a a the national l oose relationship relationship is is formed formed in ch the o loose i n whi which the tw two ass ociates remain remain entirely entirely separate, separate, with with the the foreign foreign associates party p r o v i d i n g all all the the c apital a and most o of party proNiding capital n d most f the the te chnical control control of of operations. operations. Once Once a a deal deal is is technical co ncluded, iit is ratified ratified at at the the central central government government concluded, t is level. The fiscal arrangements arrangements made made under under these these enaenaThe fiscal bling me c hanisms have in the past been in f lexible, bling mechanisms have in the past been inflexible, pr oviding for for the the same same overall overall rate rate of of government government providing take o n all sizes of f ields. These arrangements are take on all sizes of fields. These arrangements are satis f a c t o ry fo r the middle range of expe c ted resatisfactory for the middle range of expected reserves and costs. costs. When When oil oil fields fields are are larger larger than than serves and expe cted, however, however, the the government government fails fails to to capture capture expected, a reasonable share share of of the the profits profits on on the the petroleum petroleum a reasonable being pr o du c ed. W hen f ields turn o ut smaller then being produced. When fields turn out smaller then expe c ted a typi c al occ urren c e in many devel o ping expected-a typical occurrence in many developing co untries the g o vernment share pre c ludes ecocountries-the government share precludes econ o mi c devel o pment by the fo reign o perat o r. This nomic development by the foreign operator. This dis courages the the development development of of small small fields. fields. A A discourages

Refineries and Distribution

A lthough the the world's worlds oil oil refining refining capacity capacity is Although is co ncentrated in the industrialized industrialized countries, countries, many many of concentrated in the of the developing countries, countries, including including oil-importing oil-importing the developing co untries, have have considerable considerable domestic domestic refining refining cacacountries, pa city. Over Over hal f of countries in Africa have have pacity. half of the the countries i n Africa re fineries, 24 many of of whi ch are are hydroskimmers hydroskimmers (see (see refineries, 'many which b ox 4-A). 4-A). I In the developing developing world, world, refineries refineries are are box n the usually owned by by the the government, government, which which acts acts usually owned thr ough a onal o il company, company, alth ough fo reign through a nati national oil although foreign co mpanies sometimes sometimes manage manage and operate the companies and operate the refineries. re fineries. The refinery product product mix mix in oping co untries The refinery in devel developing countries di ffers significantly significantly f rom that differs from that in in the the United United States, States, due part to to the the in flexibility of oskimming due in in part inflexibility of the the hydr hydroskimming te chnology. IIn developing countries, countries, between between 60 60 technology. n developing and 70 percent percent of finery o utput is diesel and and 70 of re refinery output is diesel and residual, compared with with 30 30 percent percent in the United United residual, compared in the States. On the the other other hand, hand, gasoline gasoline accounts accounts fo r States. On for ab out hal f of production, compared compared with out about half of U.S. U.S. production, with ab about 25 20 percent iin developing c co In general, 20 percent n developing ountries. untries. re fineries in in developing developing countries countries have have higher higher proprorefineries 25 duction costs du on e con stsethan th industrialized world: world: I nctig r a those l o , se in the industrialized average refinery operating operating costs costs in Africa are average refinery in Africa are $2 $2 per per barrel, co mpared t o $0.75 per barrel in the rest barrel, compared to $0.75 per barrel in the rest of of the the w orld.26 Refineries in the developing world also world. su ffer f rom large osses due o the ld, suffer from large l losses due t to the use use of of o old, Th ine ff i c ient te c hn o l o gy, as well as p oo r maintenan ce. inefficient technology, as well as poor maintenance. R e f Re f inery l o sses, whi c h sh o uld n o t ex c eed 1 per c ent Refinery losses, which should not exceed I percent i n e

r i e s $6, of (Solomon Brothers Inc., Proved Petroleum The cost of finding a barrel of oil in the united States is $6, compared withi $3 in the rest of the world (Solomon Brothers Inc., Proved Petroleum (New NY: 1988), p. 14. Reserves of 30 Large Energy Companies Reserves 4 3 0 Large Energy Companies 1980-87 (New York, NY: 1988), p. 14. n Energy Statistics Yearbook (New 24 t U ni h OiI Gas Development in Third World Countries, draft contractor report prepared for the Office of Technology Assessment April isT t e 1990. e . d G d N o a e r t v it

Chapter 4--Energy Supplies in the Developing Developing World World 4,99 Chapter 99

Box 4-ARefinery 4-ARefinery Technology Technology

hydrocarbons. Crude oil oil is a mixture of hydr ocarbons. In the simplest refining refining process, process, primary primary distillation distillation (also (also known kn own as hydroskimming), hydroskimming), crude crude oil oil is simply heated. This This causes causes the lightest hydrocarbons, hydrocarbons, such such as gasoline gasoline and liquid petroleum petroleum gas, to to boil boil off first. f irst. As As the the temperature temperature increases, increases, different different prodproducts u cts (such (such as as kerosene kerosene and diesel oil) oil) boil boil off. off. The residual, known oil, known as residual fuel fuel o il, remains. This relatively simple simple process process does does not not allow allow for for much much flexibility f lexibility in the the mix of yielded products. products. For For example, 18 18 to to 23 23 percent percent gasoline gasoline and and 30 30 t o 55 55 to per cent residual residual fuel fuel oil oil are are typical typical yields yields from from percent primary distillation.' distillation.l Se condary conversion, conversion, which which includes includes fluid fluid catacataSecondary lyti c cracking cracking (FCC) (FCC) and and hydr ocracking, uses uses high high lytic hydrocracking, temperatures to "crack" crack large large molecules molecules into into temperatures to smaller ones. This This process process allows allows for for greater greater smaller ones. f lexibility in in product product mix, mix, and and is is often often used used to to flexibility in crease the the proportions proportions of of lighter lighter hydrocarbons, hydrocarbons, increase su ch as as gasoline gasoline and and LPG, LPG, while while reducing reducing the the such pr oportion of of residual residual fuel fuel oil. oil. For For example, example, hydrohydroproportion c racking allows allows for for up up to to 86 86 per cent (by (by weight) weight) cracking percent gas oline production, production, compared compared with with 18 18 to to 23 23 gasoline per cent for for primary primary distillation.' distillation. 2 H owever, secondsecondpercent However, ary cracking is is relatively relatively expensive expensive and and complex. complex. ary cracking
and A. World IL Need . for Need for Restructuring, Restructuring," World World Bank Bank Technical Technical Paper Paper No. No. 32, 32, W Washington DC, 32a. Washington DC, 1984, 1984, p. p. 32a.

for fuel fo r gasoline gasoline at the top top end and residual f uel at the bottom. b ottom. Developing Developing country country refineries, refineries, which which typitypically c ally do do not not have secondary secondary conversion conversion technology, technology, could co uld not not adjust adjust to to these changes. changes. As As a result, some some of their surplus petroleum to of petroleum products products had t o be exported, prices, other prodexp orted, often often at distress distress pri ces, while o ther pr oducts u cts had to to be imported. imported.28 1 Be Because internacause of these developments developments in the interna 'tional ti onal petroleum petroleum market, several several developing developing councoun-

tries are t tries are producing producing refined refined petroleum petroleum products products a at costs co sts higher than those those prevailing on on the internainternati onal market. market. U Up until recently, f fo example, tional p u n t i l recently, or r example, Liberia had only only one one refinery, refinery, which which was was poorly poorly Liberia had maintained, inefficient, and and in in need need of of upgrading. upgrading. maintained, inefficient, A n economic economic analysis analysis of of this refinery refinery showed showed that An imp orting the the refined refined petroleum petroleum products products directly directly importing and shutting down down the the inefficient inefficient domestic domestic refinery refinery and shutting w ould result result in on t o $20 would in net net savings savings of of $15 $15 milli million to $20 milli on per per year year ( U.S. dollars), dollars), equivalent oa million (U.S. equivalent t to a gain gain of about 2 2 percent percent in Liberias gross gross domestic domestic of about i n Liberia's pr oduct ( GDP) .29 ther Af rican co untries are product (GDP) .29 Several Several o other African countries are in similar similar situations. in situations.

i p. 33a. 2 j I e b t i i d in a properly pr o perly maintained and and operated operated re finery, often often in a maintained refinery, l , ex c eed 2 o r even 4 per c ent in devel o ping co untries .27 exceed l 2 or even 4 percent in developing countries .27 p e . k 3 the 1970s and 1980s, both the structure During During the 1970s and 1980s, both the structure e 3 a level and the level of petroleum petroleum product product prices prices changed. changed. and the of a n . ces of A s the the pri of petr o leum pr o du c ts in c reased, coal, Natural gas plays plays a a relatively relatively min or r ole in As prices petroleum products increased, coal, Natural gas minor role in the the d energy supply system in m o st devel o ping co untries, gas, and hydr o ele c tri c ity were substituted fo r resid energy supply system in most developing countries, gas, and hydroelectricity were substituted for residA . ual fuel oil in in electricity electricity generation, generation, leading leading to to a a supplying only 7 7 percent percent of otal energy energy use ual fuel oil supplying only of t total use in in the the O decrease in the demand for residual fuel oil. relative de c rease demand fo r f uel o il. devel o ping w o rld ( see table 4 l ) . This co ntrasts developing world (see table 4-1). This contrasts d W hen the gap gap between between gasoline gasoline and and diesel diesel prices prices sharply role in orld. In When y the sharply with with its its role in the the industrialized industrialized w world. In , widened ( due t o diesel subsidies and /o r gas o line the United States, fo r example, natural gas supplies widened (due to diesel subsidies and/or gasoline the United States, for example, natural gas supplies " taxes ), consumers consumers switched switched to to diesel diesel cars. cars. As As a a 22 percent of of domestic domestic energy energy consumption. consumption. HowHowtaxes), 22 percent W result, the stru c ture of demand fo r petr o leum pr o d ever, gas is an imp o rtant s o ur c e of energy fo r a small result, the structure of demand for petroleum prodever, gas is an important source of energy for a small o u cts changed crhanged in in many many countries; countries; the the demand demand for for the the number oping countries. countries. Five untries ucts number of of devel developing Five co countries l distillates increased relative to the demand middle distillates increased relative to Mexi co, Argentina, Argentina, Venezuela, Venezuela, China, China, and and AlgeriaAlgeria Mexico, d R from evaporation, and spills; they e which 27Refme f in the process for in the refinery process for heat, transport, and and drive. drive. See See T. T. Gorton, Gorton, op. op. cit., cit., footnote footnote 26. 26. ry refinery i s and l o World Bank L.sWiIetilleke and A. A. Ody, World "World Refinery Refinery Industry-The Industry-The Need for for Restructuring, Restructuring,' World Bank Technical Technical Paper Paper No. No. 32, 32,Washington+ Washington+ DC, DC, 1984. 1984. e sn and S. Energy for Development: Returnsto the World, Review, No. 3, 1988. T. Wilhanks and S. Wright, "Energy for Development: ORNL Returnsto the Third World," ORNL Review, No. 3, 1988. r ee s u lr t f y r o I n

The distribution system system for for petroleum petroleum products products The distribution plays a key r o le in determining whether o r ot the plays a key role in determining whether or n not the e conomy has has sufficient sufficient and and dependable dependable fuel fuel supsupeconomy plies. Because large large portions portions of of the population are are plies. Because the population s cattered in in rural rural areas, areas, and and transport transport infrastructures infrastructures scattered are frequently inadequate, inadequate, the the distribution distribution systems systems are frequently in developing co untries are ten unreliable. in developing countries are of often unreliable. In In additi on, price price controls, controls, supply supply monopolies, monopolies, rationrationaddition, ing systems, and and requirements requirements fo r uni form pri cing in ing systems, for uniform pricing in all areas may may further further limit the dependability dependability of all areas limit the of petr oleum in developing countries. countries. petroleum in developing

Natural Gas

n e r g y in 100 E . Energy in Developing Developing Countries

account for for 58 percent percent of developing developing world world natural gas consumption. consumption. Natural Natural gas gas consumption consumption in the developing devel oping world world is is concentrated concentrated in industry, industry, where where it is it is used used both both as as a a fuel fuel and and as as a a feedstock. feedstock. Natural Natural gas is is also also used used for for electricity electricity generation. generation.
Discovered n many developing Dis covered gas gas reserves reserves iin developing countries co untries are are not not developed. developed. The The current current production production levels from from developed developed reserves reserves are are only only 16 16 percent percent of the level level that current current proven proven reserves could could 30 sustain.' Thus, many sustain. many developing developing countries countries import import large quantities quantities of of crude crude or or fuel fuel oil oil while while possessing possessing reserves of of natural gas that uld serve m ore natural gas t h a t co could more e conomically and and with with less less harm harm to to the the environenvironeconomically ment.31 ment. 31 The reasons The reasons for for the the relative relative underutilization underutilization of of natural gas in in the the developing developing world world lie lie more more in natural gas in institutional instituti onal than than in in technical technical or or financial financial conconstraints. Although gas gas is is associated associated with with oil oil exploraexplorastraints. Although ti on and and development development and and therefore therefore shares shares many many of of tion the same problems, problems, it it has has additional additional difficulties difficulties of of its the same its o wn. IIn the exploration exploration phase, phase, due due to to the the fiscal fiscal or or own. n the co ntra c tual terms under whi c h gas is dis co vered, gas contractual terms under which gas is discovered, gas dis coveries are are often often treated treated as as "dry dry holes" holes by by oil oil discoveries expl oration companies. companies.32IIn the development development phase, phase, exploration n the gas requires heavy heavy front-end front-end capital capital investments investments gas requires ( pipelines f r o m pr o du c ing t o co nsuming regions, or, or, (pipelines from producing to consuming regions, in the c ase of o verseas trade, co stly f a c ilities and in the case of overseas trade, costly facilities and tankers to liquefy liquefy and and transport transport the the gas) gas) and and longlongtankers to term agreements between suppliers and co nsumers. term agreements between suppliers and consumers. A nd the the high high cost cost of of building building distribution distribution systems systems in in And c ities deters the devel o pment of d o mesti c markets cities deters the development of domestic markets fo r natural natural gas. gas. for

available fo for investor to profits. available r the invest or t o repatriate pr ofits. This last di difficulty of highly last fficulty is especially especially acute acute in the case case of indebted developing of indebted developing countries countries where the bulk of scarce currency for earmarked in advance advance fo r s carce hard c urrency is earmarked payments on on debt. debt. Unlike Unlike the electricity electricity sector, sector, which whi ch shares many of of these these characteristics, characteristics, developdevelopment of natural gas reserves not ment reserves has has generally generally n ot been been ffinanced inanced by donor donor agencies. agencies.

Biomass Fuels Fuels Biomass

Bi omass fuels fuels are are an imp ortant s ource of Biomass important source of energy energy in the developing developing countries, countries, supplying supplying over over threethreein the fo urths of of the t otal energy energy consumed consumed in alm ost all of fourths total almost of the lower income income developing developing countries.' countries.33 The nthe lower The co contributi on of of biomass biomass fuels fuels to to total total energy energy supplies supplies in tribution in the entire developing developing world world is is unclear. unclear. Biomass Biomass f uel the entire fuel co nsumption is is difficult difficult to to measure, measure, as as much much of of it consumption it never enters enters a a commercial market. A As shown in table table never commercial market. s sh own in 4 -1, biomass biomass fuels fuels supply supply about about 19 percent of otal 4-1, 19 percent of t total energy according t o the onal Energy Agency. energy according to the Internati International Energy Agency. Other researchers, number at Other researchers, however, however, estimate estimate this number 34 33 to 35 35 percent.' percent. 33 to Bi omass fuels fuels are are the ominant energy ource in Biomass the d dominant energy s source in rural areas, and and they they are are also also widely widely used used in oorer rural areas, in p poorer urban areas, as some large -scale industrial urban areas, as well well as as in in some large-scale industrial pr ocesses. These These " on nal uels co nsist of processes. ttraditi raditio al f fuels" consist of w ood (firewood (firewood and and charcoal), charcoal), dung dung (from (from c attle and and wood cattle o ther animals), animals), and and crop crop wastes wastes ( e.g., wheat, ce other (e.g., wheat, ri rice straw, and sugar sugar cane cane bagasse). bagasse). Wood Wood is the most most straw, and is the widely used and and preferred preferred fuel fuel due due to to its its superior superior widely used combustion of t total co mbustion characteristics. characteristics. Its share share of otal biomass biomass energy supply varies varies widely widely among among the developing energy supply the developing co untries, according according t o region region and and agricultural agricultural and countries, to and fo restry resource resource base. base. In ons of rica and forestry In many many regi regions of Af Africa and Latin America (with (with the the important important exception exception of of Latin America Brazil, where bagasse bagasse is also used), used), wood wood is Brazil, where is also is the the primary rm of omass energy sian primary fo form of bi biomass energy used. used. In In A Asian co untries, wood wood remains remains the the dominant dominant biomass biomass fuel fuel countries, ((accounting accounting fo ro ne-half of biomass consumed consumed in for one-half of all all biomass in

The specific requirements requirements of of gas gas development development are are The specific parti cularly difficult difficult for for developing developing countries, countries, where where particularly f inancing for for large large capital-intensive capital-intensive projects projects is is hard hard financing t o find, find, and and where where the the main main purchaser purchaser for for the the gas gas is is to the state. When When the the developer developer is is a a private private foreign foreign the state. co rporation, the the problems problems are are complicated complicated by by unceruncercorporation, tainty sufficient foreign foreign exchange exchange w will be tainty tthat h a t sufficient i l l be

op. cit., foomote 12, p. 36. 30 W @t countries with undeveloped gas fields: Mozambique, Ethiopia, 31 o r Equatorial To Equatorial Guinea, Sudan, Senegal, Senegal, Tanzania, and and Namibia. Namibia. lm d about in the developing world is flared o r 32B B e Europe is 2 percent. A. Natural Gas Supply din Less Developed Developed Countries," Countries, Annual y Europe is 2 percent. A. Mashayekbi, "Natural Gas Supply and and Demandin Annual Review Review of o f Energy, Energy, vol. vol. 13, 13, 1988, 1988, pp. pp. a n 119-129. o n t show@ relationship with capita. n 33 k i e 130) meets 92 percent of its energy needs with biomass fuels, while Argentina capita= For example, Ethiopia (GNP 1 1 For, example, Ethiopia (( NPper capita = $U.S. 130) meets 92 percent of its energy needs with biomass fuels, while Argentina(GNP per capita= SUS. o e meets 2,390) only 7 percent of its needs with biomass fuels. e 2,390) o n meets only 7 percent of its needs with biomass fuels. s r ofEnergy, 1987, pp. 13-32; P. OKeefe, J. B. D. p 34 @ t i Energy in Eastern and Southern o . 14, 1989, 1989, pp. Wood 1 t "Wood Energy in Eastern and Southern Africa," Annual Annual Review Review of o f Energy, Energy, vol. vol. 14, pp. 445-468. 445-468. m l c C t a ie S h t o t m e e f . i s , b , t

Chapter 4--Energy Supplies in the Developing Developing World World .101 Jal Chapter

China, and three-quarters three-quarters in India), India), but crop crop wastes

role.' and animal dung dung also also play a significant significant r ole.

35

Table 4-3-Biomass Energy Resources in Selected Table Developing Countries Developing Countries
Sustainable energy energy yield yield Sustainable (GJ (GJ per per capita capita per per year Animal Crop Crop Animal residues Wood residues Country Wood dung Country dung 570 11 570 Congo Congo . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 350 8 16 Brazil 350 8 135 Zaire . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 11 135 Zaire 25 123 40 Argentina . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Argentina 123 40 4 Thailand . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 9 4 Thailand 9 37 2 1 7 13 Nepal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 21 13 Nepal 7 Burkina Faso. Faso . . . . . . . 10 5 7 5 Burkina 10 7 India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 6 7 5 India 6 4 2 5 Bangladesh . . . . . . . . . 4 2 5 Bangladesh 7 China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 7 3 China data not data not available or not applicable applicable
SOURCES: SOURCES: G. Barnard and L. Kristoffarson, Agricultural Residuesas as Fuel in D. Hall, in the Third World (London: Earthscan, 1985); O. Hall, G. Barnard, Barnard, and and P. P. Moss, Biomass Biomass for for Energyin in the the Developing Developing Countries, Pargamon Press, 1982. 1982. R. R. Moss and and W. Morgan, Morgan, Fuolwood and and Rural Rural Energy Energy Production and and Supply Supply in in the the Humid (Dublin, Ireland: Ireland: Tycooly International International PublishPublishHumid Tropics, Tropics, (Dublin, ing Ltd, 1981). 1981). ing Ltd, These Thesesupplies Supplies

Biomass Biomass Resource Resource Base Base

For F or a variety of reasons, reasons, the fuelwood fuelwood supply base base i s shrinking shrinking rapidly. rapidly. This This could could have have serious serious impacts impacts on o n the the populations populations that depend depend on on forests forests for for fuel, fuel, food, foo d, fiber, fiber, fodder, fodder, and and other other needs. needs. forest The total total global global annual growth growth of fo rest biomass biomass estiis subject subject to to great uncertainty, uncertainty, but has been esti mated to to be be about about 50 times annual wood wood consumpconsumption ti on or or five five times times total total annual energy consumption, consumption, in cluding fossil fossil fuels. fuels. Despite Despite this apparently large including average global global supply, supply, there there are are acute acute and and growing growing sh ortages of of fuelwood fuelwood both both locally locally and and regionally. regionally. shortages S ome regions, regions, such such as as Asia, Asia, have have very very little little forest forest Some st ock per per capita capita (table (table 4-3). 4-3). Within Within regions, regions, some some stock co untries are are well well endowed endowed with with biomass biomass energy energy countries res ources, while while others others have have totally totally inadequate inadequate resources, supplies ; and and within within countries countries themselves, themselves, local local supplies; abundan ces and and shortages shortages are are common. common. Zaire, Zaire, for for abundances example, consumes only only 2 2 percent percent of of its its sustainable sustainable example, consumes yield of forest forest biomass biomass but but has has serious serious deforestation deforestation yield of around ar ound Kinshasa.' Kinshasa.36

Despite the uncertainties uncertainties regarding regarding rates rates of of biobioDespite the mass energy use use and and supply, supply, iit is clear clear that that the the mass energy t is p o pulati o ns a ff e c ted by f uelw oo d sh o rtages are populations affected by fuelwood shortages are in creasing. The The United United Nations Nations Food Food and and AgriculAgriculincreasing. ture Organization (UNFAO) (UNFAO) has has estimated estimated that that the the ture Organization number of people people suffering suffering acute acute shortages shortages o of number of f fuelwood f uelwood will increase increase from from about about 100 million million in 1980 to over over 350 350 million million in in the the year year 2000. 2000. Such Such 1980 to sh ortages increase increase fuel fuel costs costs for for urban urban dwellers, dwellers, shortages lengthen the time time spent spent foraging foraging for for fuel fuel by by rural rural lengthen the dwellers, and rob rob the the soil soil of of nutrients nutrients as as people people dwellers, and swit ch from from wood wood to to crop crop wastes wastes and and dung dung (although (although switch the impact of of this this nutrient nutrient loss loss maybe maybe limited limited except except the impact in the much much longer longer term). term). in the

are ree of harge ( if the are gathered gathered f free of c charge (if the co nsiderable co st of or used ot considerable cost of the the lab labor used in in gathering gathering is is n not in cluded) from from fields, fields, hedgerows, hedgerows, gardens, gardens, and and included) nearby forest lands. lands. In some cases, cases, however, however, the nearby forest I n some the p oor may may have have to to "pay" pay with labor services services fo r the poor with labor for the privilege of gathering biomass fuels fuels from from privately privilege of gathering biomass privately owned o wned land. land.

Commercial Biomass Markets Commercial

Bi omass fuels, fuels, notably notably logs logs and and charcoal, charcoal, are are also also Biomass traded mmercial markets ar ffrom rom their rigin in traded in in co commercial markets f far their o origin in g overnment and and private private forests, forests, farms, farms, or or plantaplantagovernment tions. ti ons. Low-income Low-income urban households households and small co mmercial enterprises enterprises use use the uels. commercial the bulk bulk of of these these f fuels. In some used fo for In some cases, cases, however, however, biomass biomass fuels fuels are used r advan ced industrial industrial applications, applications, as as in case of advanced in the the case of c harcoal for for ir on smelting smelting in ch cases, cases, charcoal iron in Brazil. Brazil. In In su such the industrial users users often often organize organize the the biomass biomass fuel fuel the industrial supplies. supplies. Unlike ther fo rms of supplies of mUnlike o other forms of energy, energy, supplies of co commer cialized biomass biomass fuels fuels are hands of mercialized are largely largely in in the the hands of the private sector. sector. Much Much of fuelwood may be the private of the the fuelwood may be gr own on on privately privately owned owned land,' land,37 and the transport transport grown and the and distribution and distribution charnels charnels for for commercialized commercialized biobio-

Rural Biomass Markets

Mu ch of of the the biomass biomass fuel fuel supply supply in developing Much in developing co untries-especially twigs, twigs, branches, branches, dung, dung, and and countries-especially c rop wastesis wastesis gathered gathered locally locally and and used used by by family family crop members without entering entering commercialized commercialized markets. markets. members without

wastes account for total traditional energy supply in just dung accounts for about 20 35 use in percent of traditional traditional fuel fuel use in India, India,Pakistan, and and Bangladesh Bangladesh but but under under 2 2 percent percent in in China. China. C r of OSS and W. Morgan, op R. M Moss and W. Morgan, Fuelwood and and Rural Energy Energy Production Production and and Supply Supply in in the the Humid Humid Tropics (Dublin, Ireland: Tycooly International Publishing Ltd., w Publishing Ltd., 1981). 1981). a government lands were found to provide less than of total supplies 37 sA. Reddy, and n Reddy, "Fuelwood Use and1A. Use in in the the Cities Cities of of the the Developing Developing World: World: Two Two Case Case Studies Studies From From Ire@ lre@" Natural Resources Forum, vol. vol. 9, 9, No. No. 3, 3, 1985). 1985). t s e e s v a e

102 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries

mass, fuels fuels are typically typically in private hands, as are charcoal c harcoal kilns.' kilns.38 On the other other hand, the fuelwood fuelwood trade trade is often often subject sub ject to to government government regulation, regulation, with strict strict rules about ab out cutting cutting trees in government government forests forests and even on t is believed o n private private lands. lands. Although Although iit believed that such such regulations regulati ons are are not not strictly strictly enforced, enforced, often often because because of the difficulty difficulty of of enforcement, enforcement, proscriptions proscriptions against against cutting c utting trees trees can can discourage discourage the the development development of long-term unwilll ong-term supplies, as farmers farmers and others others are unwill ing to to invest invest in in tree tree planting planting for for fuelwood fuelwood if they have no no assurance assurance that that they they can can harvest harvest the the trees trees at at maturity. Fuelwood prices prices may may also also be be subject subject t o maturity. Fuelwood to pri ce controls controls (in (in Senegal, Senegal, for for example, example, charcoal charcoal price pri ces are are controlled controlled by by the the government). government). And And in in prices s ome cases, cases, governments governments may may play play a a role role in in the the some distributi on system system as as well. well. Compared Compared with comdistribution with commercial mer cial fuels, fuels, however, however, the the biomass biomass trade trade is is relarelatively unregulated. tively unregulated. The transport of of wood wood and and c harcoal to to urban urban areas areas The transport charcoal is carried out out in in a a variety variety of of ways. ways. In In India, India, poor poor is carried w omen carry carry head head loads loads of of f uel to to urban urban markets; markets; in women fuel in Niger, camels carry carry fuel fuel into into the the capital capital city city of Niger, camels of Niamey ; and and elsewhere elsewhere fuel fuel is is carried carried by by bicycle, bicycle, Niamey; animal cart, moped, moped, and and other other means. means. I In higher animal cart, n higher in come areas, areas, trucks trucks or or trains trains carry carry the the bulk of the income bulk of the fuel. f uel.

more m ore for for a modern modern continuous continuous retort, retort, higher higher energy energy efficiencies e fficiencies can can be be achieved. achieved. Although i t is widely believed that c charcoal A lthough it harcoal is cheaper to transport to higher c heaper t o transp ort than wood wood due t o its higher energy content energy content by weight, detailed studies have found transportation for wood fo und that the transp ortation costs costs fo rw ood and 41 charcoal same.' The The higher energy c harcoal are about about the same. content charcoal co ntent of c harcoal per unit weight is countercounterbalanced volume. balan ced by its lower lower weight per unit v olume.

Charcoal In rural areas, the cutting cutting of of fuelwood fuelwood and and its its In co nversion to to charcoal charcoal is is a a major major source source of of income income conversion and nonagricultural employment. employment. Charcoal Charcoal is is made made and nonagricultural by stacking the the wood, wood, covering covering it a layer by stacking it with with a layer of of dirt, dirt, and letting it burn with a limited of air. The and letting it burn with a limited supply supply of air. The e fficiency of of converting converting wood wood to to charcoal charcoal in in these these efficiency simple earthen kilns kilns is is quite quite low, low, typically typically ranging ranging simple earthen f rom 40 40 to to 60 60 percent.'If percent.39 If a a capital capital investment investment is is from made, ranging from from a a few few hundred hundred dollars dollars for for simple simple made, ranging m odifications to to traditional traditional kilns' kilns 40tt o $100,000 $100,000 or or modifications o
38m. Alam, J J.. Dunkerley, and and A. A. Reddy, Reddy, Ibid. Ibid.

Despite higher price, price, charcoal charcoal is widely used Despite its higher used in in s ome countries, countries, particularly particularly in urban urban areas areas where where some pe ople have have cash cash incomes. incomes. A A 1970 1970 rep ort f rom people report from Thailand, for example, example, indicated indicated that 90 cent of Thailand, for 90 per percent of the w wood cut for urban markets markets was was converted to the ood c ut fo r urban converted t o c harcoal. 42IIt has several several important important advantages advantages over over charcoal. t has w ood. Charcoal Charcoal is is impervious impervious to to insect insect atta ck, wood. attack, unlike some wood wood species species that unlike some that must must be be used used within within as as a onth of o av oid signi ficant as little little as am month of drying drying t to avoid significant 43 l osses t o termites. losses to termites . AS it is nearly smokeless, c har coal coo can be be done done indoors indoors in charcoal i n relative relative 4' A s cooking i king t can co m fo rt with o ut bla c kening walls o r metal p o ts with comfort without blackening walls or metal pots with i s soot. I n addition, charcoal causes l i t t l e smoke s oo t. In additi o n, c har co al c auses little sm oke n e a r l y irritati o n t o eyes o r lungs. A lth o ugh it c an emit large irritation to eyes or lungs. Although it can emit large s m o k e am ounts of of dangerous dangerous carbon carbon monoxide monoxide and and other other amounts l e s s , p ollutants, which which is is a a health health hazard hazard in poorly pollutants, i n poorly ventilated kitchens, ventilated kitchens, charcoal charcoal causes causes little little obvious obvious dis comfort t o the Additionally, o nce lit, discomfort to the user. user. Additionally, once lit, charcoal fires attention from cook, c harcoal f ires need little attenti on f rom the coo k, whereas wood fires fires require require frequent frequent ad justing of whereas wood adjusting of the the ffuel. uel.

Biomass Pricing
W hen people people move move f rom rural o urban areas in When from rural t to urban areas in devel oping countries, countries, they they typically typically continue continue t to o developing fo llow traditional traditional patterns patterns of of biomass biomass fuel fuel use. use. In follow In contrast of biomass co ntrast to to the labor-intensive labor-intensive collection collection of biomass ffuels uels in areas, however, however, the oor of ten in rural rural areas, the urban urban p poor often have no choice choice but o purchase purchase fuelwood fuelwood o rc harcoal have no but t to or charcoal in commercial markets. markets. In Tanzania, the the cost cost of in commercial I n Tanzania, of pur chasing these these fuels fuels reportedly reportedly ranges ranges as as high high as as purchasing

Production Improvement for Rural Development in d: Royal Thai Government a n d U.S. Ag e n c y fo r 39 International Development, D. CharcoalProduction, Report No. 002, International Development, 1984); 1984); DEarl, CharcoalProduction, Sudan Sudan Renewable Renewable Energy Energy Project, Project, Energy Energy Research Research Council, Council, USAID, US J D Report No 002, C February J. Wartluft S. White, Comparing Simple Khartoum, Khartoum,Sudan, February 1984; 1984; J. Wartluft and and S. White,Comparing Simple Charcoal Charcoal Production Technologies Technologies for for the the Caribbean Caribbean (Arlington, VA: VA: ha Volunteers in Assistance, 1984). Volunteers in Technical Technical Assistance, 1984). rc o0 a G. a n d J. Production and Transportation of and Charcoal From Wood Surplus to Regions in 4 l . Technical Niger: Technical and and Economic Economic Feasibility Niger: Feasibility" (Washington (Washington DC: DC: Energy/Development Energy/Development International, International, March March 1988). 1988). K P S. and Charcoal in Developing Countries, Annual Review of Energy, vol. 10, 1985, pp. 407-429. C 41T r h . Energy and Rural Communities, Natural Resources Forum, vol. 3, 1979, pp. 229-252. 42j o r W and Bent of Forum, 8, No. d3 4 i. o A u 1, pp. 51-62. S i 1, 1984, 1984, pp. 51-62. s
o r c m t d n t n o a o i N p n

Chapter 4--Energy Supplies in the Developing Developing World World .1103 03 Chapter

40 percent percent of of the income income of poor poor families.'More families.44 More typically, typi cally, energy energy accounts accounts for for 5 to to 10 percent percent of the expenditures of of poor poor households.' households.45
Biomass Bi omass fuel fuel prices prices in urban urban markets often often rise rapidly as as wood wood resources resources are seriously seriously depleted, and then then closely closely follow follow fossil fossil fuel fuel markets. markets. Biomass Biomass costs co sts cannot cannot rise very far far above above the cost cost of an or equivalent amount amount of useful useful energy from from kerosene kerosene o r i l l then switch LPG, as as users users can can and w will switch fuels.' fuels.% Families that purchase purchase modern modern stoves stoves and fuels, fuels, h owever, rarely rarely discard discard the the older older stoves. stoves. MaintainMaintainhowever, ing both both technologies technologies allows allows easy easy and and flexible flexible swit ching between between fuels fuels in in response response to to availability availability switching and price. price. Following Following the the 1973 1973 and and 1979 1979 oil oil price price in creases, for for example, example, many many people people switched switched back back increases, t o wood wood and and charcoal charcoal for for their their cooking cooking needs. needs. In to In Malawi the use use of of kerosene, kerosene, primarily primarily for for cooking cooking Malawi the and lighting, declined declined by by 24 24 percent percent between between 1973 1973 and lighting, and 1976.' 1976.47 7

Figure 4-5--Electricity 4-5Electricity Generation by Fuel Type in in Figure Selected Regions of of the the Developing World, World, 1987 1987 Selected
600 6 00 Thousand GWh Thousand GWh

500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0
m H m Hy yd dr ro o/ o t h e r *
=

Nu uc c ll e ea ar r N

m N l G s m Na at tu ur ra al Ga as U O U O i i ll
-

Co oa a ll C

Africa LLatin atin A m e r i c a I India ndia Africa America

C h iChina n a

Includes 'Includes hydropower, geothermal, and and other other renewable. renewable. SOURCE: SOURCE: International Energy Agency, World Energy Energy Statistics Statistics and and Balances Balances 1971-1987 1971-1987 (Paris: OECD, 1989). 1989).

Electricity
Ele ctrification plays plays a a central central role role in in promoting promoting Electrification e conomic and and social social development development in in any any nation. nation. A At economic t the same time, time, the the electricity electricity sector sector consumes consumes large large the same amounts am ounts of of economic, economic, social, social, and and environmental environmental res ources. Accordingly, Accordingly, the the electric electric power power sector sector resources. re ceives significant significant attention attention and and resources resources from from receives b oth developing developing country country governments governments and and internainternaboth ti onal development development agencies. agencies. For For example, example, the the tional W orld Bank Bank directs directs over over 80 80 percent percent of of its energy World its energy lending to the the electricity electricity sector. sector. lending to A lthough electricity electricity accounts accounts for for less less than than 9 9 Although per cent of of the the energy energy used used by by consumers consumers in in developdeveloppercent ing countries,48 ele ctricity production production iin the develdeveling countries,' electricity n the o ping world world is is increasing increasing rapidly, rapidly, at at an an average average oping annual rate of of 7.6 7.6 percent.'However, percent.49 However, this this rapid rapid annual rate gr owth still still leaves leaves the the developing developing world world at at a a far far growth l ower level level of of electricity electricity production production than than the the indusinduslower trialized world: average average annual annual electricity electricity producproductrialized world: ti on in in the the developing developing world world is is about about 520 520 kilowattkilowatttion

h ours (kWh) (kWh) per per capita,' capita, 50 as compared with U.S. hours as compared with the the U.S. ffigure igure of of 10,500 10,500 kWh kWh per per c apita. 51 capita.'

Electricity Generation In the devel oping w orld, as as in developing world, in the the United United States, States, a uels and chnologies are r a variety variety of of f fuels and te technologies are used used fo for ele c tri c ity generati o n ( see f igure 4 5 and table 4 4 ) . electricity generation (see figure 4-5 and table 4-4).
C oal use use for for electricity electricity production production in developCoal in the the developing orld is concentrated, largely largely in untries with ing w world is concentrated, in co countries with sizable domestic coal coal reserves reserves ( India, China, sizable domestic (India, China, and and S outh Africa). Africa). Similarly, Similarly, natural natural gas gas generating generating South c apacity is is found found mainly mainly in the few few countries countries where where capacity in the natural gas iis produced domestically. domestically. In ther natural gas s produced In o other co untries, oil oil is is often often used used fo r ele ctricity generation. generation. countries, for electricity Hydr oelectric facilities facilities range range from from microhydromicrohydroHydroelectric p o wer stati o ns with less than 0.1 megawatt (MW) of power stations with less than 0.1 megawatt (MW) of c apa c ity t o large s c ale hydr o p o wer plants su ch as as capacity to large-scale hydropower plants such the 12,600 MW MW Itaipu facility in For co unthe 12,600 Itaipu facility in Brazil. Brazil. For countries with hydr o ele c tri c p o tential, hydr o p o wer off ers tries with hydroelectric potential, hydropower offers an indigen o us s o ur c e of ele c tri c ity generati o n with an indigenous source of electricity generation with very ow operating operating costs, costs, although although the apital co sts very l low the c capital costs

E.M. Mnzava, "Village Industries Industries vs. vs. Savannah Savannah Forests, Forests," UNASYLVA, vol. 33, 33, No. No. 131, 131, 1981, 1981 , pp. 24-29. 24-29.

Household Energy World Paper No. 67, p. 45 G F. Barnes, Understanding Prices in Developing Nations, Household Energy Unit, Industry and Energy World 46 er Oct. 31, 1989. 1989. Department, Oct. 31, D al Wo o d Energy and Rural Communities, Natural Resources Forurn, vol. 3, 1979, pp. 229-252. o u 47j d g l . op. cit., footnote 4, pp. 112, 120, L 48 as A e1 1 1971-87. IEA, op. cit., 4. 4 9 F r a, A P . Agency Development PowerShortages in Developing Countries: Magnitude, Impacts, Solutions of the Private n c U.S. Agency forInternational Development PowerShortages i n Developing Countries: Magnitude, Impacts, Solutions and the Rale of the Private o o r (Washington, DC: Sector of U.S. AID, March 1988), p. 2. B Sector DC: Office of Energy, U.S. A I D , March 1988), p. 2. o h p t a 1989). l a . 51 h r d n c E e n , d i ne p e " M t rg e s

104 Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries

Table 4-4-Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1987 (percent by kWh delivered)

Fuel Fuel Africa Africa 52 52 14 14 14 14 3 3 18 18 100 100 283,340 Latin America Latin America 3 3 24 24 8 8 11 63 63 100 100 520,290 520,290 China China 68 68 India India 66 66 8 8 11 2 2 23 23 100 100 217,500 217,500 United States States United 57 57 5 5 1 1 11 18 18 10 10 100 100 2,732,530 2,732,530

oi l . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Natural gas.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Natural gas. Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Nuclear Hydro/other a' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total Total (percent) . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total(GWh) Total(GINh) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . coal

12 14 * 0 20 20 100 100 497,320 497,320

'Less than than r/o. Less l%. a lncludes hydropower, hydropower, geothermal, geothermal, and and other other renewable& renewables. a Includes NOTE: Does Does not not include include heat heat losses. losses. Totals Totals may may not add to 100 IOO percent percent due to rounding. rounding.
SOURCE: International International Enemy AgeDsv. _Work! gnengy Statistics and Balances 1971-1987 1971-1987 (Paris: OECD, 1989),:1EA..EnereKBalances of OECD Countries Countries , . -. . 19 8 7 -1 19 9 8 8 (Paris: OECD, 1990). are In Latin Latin America, America, hydropower hydropower plays plays a a large large a r ehigh. high. In r ole, supplying supplying almost almost two-thirds two-thirds of of total total electricelectricrole, 52 ity. More than 90 percent of Brazils total electricity2 53 2 supply ity supply comes comes ffrro om hydr pp oo wer. In Africa, ity m h y d ro o wer: M oo rst half alm half of of the the electricity electricity generated generated outside outside of of almost 3 54 S o uth Af ri c a co mes f r o m hydr o p o wer, and m o re e South Africa comes from hydropower,' and more ln A f r i c a , than two-thirds of of the the countries countries iin Africa produce produce than n Africa t h two-thirds 55 ele c tri c ity f r o m hydr o ele c tri c plants. electricity from hydroelectric plants.' a

energy to electricity, electricity, wind-driven wind-driven generators, generators, and and energy to the burning of material. Although Although these the burning of waste waste material. these s ources contribute contribute relatively relatively small small amounts amounts to to total total sources ele ctricity supplies supplies in in the the developing developing world, world, there there is electricity is str ong policy policy interest strong interest in in expanding expanding the the use use of of these these alternative generating technologies. technologies. alternative generating The operating efficiencies efficiencies of of electricity electricity genergenerThe operating ating plants are generally l o wer in devel oping ating plants are generally lower i n developing 59 co untries than in the United States. A lth o ugh countries than in the United States.'Although many many ffactors actors affect affect power power plant plant efficiency efficiency (notably (notably input input f uel quality ), the use of fficient, poorly poorly fuel quality), t h e use o f less less e efficient, maintained technologies contributes contributes t o the ow maintained technologies to the l low e fficiencies of of developing developing world world powerplants. powerplants. efficiencies

n eight developing developing countries countries were were generating generating Only eight 9 Only ele c tri c ity f r o m nu c lear p o werplants as o of late electricity from nuclear powerplants as f late 0 56 1989, alth o ugh several m o re have plants planned 1989,'although several more have plants planned p 57 o r under under c co nstru cti Nu or o nstr uo cn. tio n fclear power generation e inv o lves high c apital co sts, very very large large scales scales of of involves high capital costs, 7 r o perati o n, and co nsiderable te c hni c al expertise. In operation, N u c l e a r and considerable technical expertise. I n c tw o upper upper inco developing countries, countries, Taiwan Taiwan and and two income p w e r me developing e o Electricity Transmission and Distribution K o rea, nu c lear p o wer pr o vides o ver 40 per c ent of Korea, nuclear g e n e r power a t iprovides over 40 percent of n t otal electricity generation. generation. IIn other countries, countries, howhowtotal n other Transmissi on and and distribution distribution systems systems in o n electricity Transmission i n the the t ever, there there have have been been some some difficulties difficulties with nuclear nuclear devel o ping w o rld have relatively high l o sses. A developing world have relatively high losses. A o p ower--e.g., two two of of India's Indias three three operating operating nuclear nuclear powere.g., re c ent survey of 76 devel o ping co untries fo und that, recent survey of 76 developing countries found that, 58 f plants have suffered suffered high high outage outage rates,' rates, and their plants have and their in one-half of of the countries surveyed, surveyed, transmission transmission in one-half the countries B fo urth plant has had co nstru c ti o n delays of 7 years. fourth plant has had construction delays of 7 years. and distribution losses losses (as (as a share of otal generageneraand distribution a share of t total r ti on) exceeded exceeded 15 15 percent, percent, compared compared with with typi cal tion) typical a A number of alternative generati o n te c hn o l o gies l o sses of less than 10 per c ent in the industrialized A number of alternative generation technologies losses of less than 10 percent in the industrialized 60 z countries. These losses have also been been used used in in developing developing countries, countries, includincludco untries. 6() These losses include include both both technical technical have also iing co generati o n, ge o thermal, co nversi o n of s o lar l o sses and unmetered co nsumpti o n ( theft). ing cogeneration, geothermal, conversion of solar losses and unmetered consumption (theft). l ' 521EA o p. cit., footnote 4. , 3 s 5 o p. 1b Nations, op. cit., footnote 54 t ic di t U5 5 , o .1 nb i Republic of South f o 5d 6 t e i tDevelopment Trends in Developing Countries, o t May Report of the T Development Trends in Developing Countries," Report of the Secretary-General, May 14, 14, 1990. 1990. . d o a n of Korea all had nuclear powerplants under Construction h e N7 5 e se l t4 a A r Research Institute, op. cit., footnote 5 a8 t g e o for T a e .5 9 ir n t at Developing June 15, 1989. U Developing Countries, UNCTAD/TT/90, June 15, 1989. e l io En n i A 60Ibid. n , e a n t re s B e d g c r , r N e o t a g a n
n

z p y t

Chapter 4--Energy Supplies in in the Developing Developing World World 4,105 Chapter 105

Institutional Issues Institutional Issues

Governments G overnments in both both the the developing developing and industriindustrialized world world generally generally have have taken taken leading leading roles roles in directing dire cting the development development and operation operation of the electric ele ctric power power sector; sector; this this reflects reflects both both the the imporimportance tan ce of of electric electric power power in meeting meeting economic economic and social electric s ocial objectives objectives and and the the high cost cost of ele ctric power power systems. Because Be cause electricity electricity is considered considered an important important tool t ool61within within a a broader broader national national development development stratstrategy'', egy , developing countries countries often often subsidize subsidize elecelectri city prices. prices. In In Pakistan, Pakistan, for for example, example, 60 60 percent percent of of tricity the cost cost of of electricity electricity is is subsidized; subsidized; iin India, the the n India, f igure is is 20 20 percent. percent.62 Many countries have subsifigure dies for a ele ctri in selected selected sectors sectors (e.g., (e.g., agriculagriculelectricity 62 for M n y city in ture and residential reflecting either either the the political political ture residential), c o and u n t r i e ), reflecting in fluence of of the the subsidized subsidized sectors sectors or or government government influence s interest in pr o m o ting c ertain e co n o mi c or or social social interest i n promoting certain economic h a v ends. A lth o ugh ele c tri c ity pri c es nearly d o ubled ends. Although electricity prices nearly doubled e between 1980-81 and and 1986-87 1986-87 in in India, India, for for example, example, between 1980-81 s u b s c urrent prices prices are are still still far far lower lower than supply costs costs for for current than supply iresidential and agricultural agricultural consumers.' consumers. 63 residential and

Subsidized electricity Subsidized electricity prices prices also also allow allow electricity electricity to prices for t o compete compete with subsidized pri ces fo r alternative farm ffuels. uels. Similarly, Similarly, when when prices prices of f arm products products are controlled and kept artificially low, electricity controlled artificially low, electricity prices prices (and the prices of other such as f fertilizers) are (and prices other inputs su ch as ertilizers) are 66 often subsidized to keep farms operating.' often subsidized to farms operating. Subsidized electricity Subsidized electricity can can have negative negative impacts, impacts, including in cluding contributing contributing to to power power shortages, shortages, since since consumers co nsumers tend tend to to use use more more subsidized subsidized electricity electricity than they would than would otherwise. otherwise. Moreover, Moreover, price price subsisubsidies keep power dies power company company revenues at levels inadeinadequate for quate for developing developing additional additional supplies supplies and even even for fo r maintaining existing facilities facilities efficiently. efficiently. Higher Higher pri ces, on on the the other other hand, hand, limit limit supplies supplies to to higher higher prices, in come groups, groups, an an outcome outcome that may may conflict conflict with income the social goals goals of of ele ctrification. the social electrification.

There may be be many many reasons reasons ffo subsidizing There may or r subsidizing ele ctricity prices prices iin different sectors. sectors. For For example, example, electricity n different rural electrification is is promoted promoted as as a a means means to to reduce reduce rural electrification migrati on to to cities cities by by improving improving economic economic opportuopportumigration nities and lifestyles lifestyles in in rural rural areas. areas. Supporters Supporters argue argue nities and that these subsidies bene f it s oc iety as a wh o le and that these subsidies benefit society as a whole and n o t j ust rural co nsumers. Others r o gue that there is not just rural consumers. Others rogue that there is no n o conclusive conclusive evidence evidence that that rural electrification electrification can can a ctually produce produce this this benefit. benefit.64Rural Rural electrification electrification actually is als o seen as a p o wer f ul instrument at the disposal disposal is also seen as 'a powerful instrument at the of c entral g o vernments t o fo ster p o liti c al stability in of central governments to foster political stability in 65 rural areas, alth o ugh again the eviden c e is mixed. rural areas," although again the evidence is mixed.'

Capital on electricity electricity systems in the Capital spending on devel o ping w o rld is c urrently developing world is currently estimated estimated at at $50 $50 67 billi o n t o $60 billi o n annually. Even at that billion to $60 billion annually.' Even at that high high level of expenditure, expenditure, investment investment is is expected expected to to be be level of inadequate to meet meet demand. demand. The The United United States States inadequate to A gency for for International International Development Development (U.S. (U.S. AID) AID) Agency has estimated that meeting the gr o wing demand r has estimated that meeting the growing demand fo for ele c tri c ity will require c apital investment of ar o und electricity will require capital investment of around $125 billion per ver the o de cades.68 $125 billion per year year o over the next next tw two decades." This enormous capital capital mobilization mobilization requirement requirement This enormous represents raction of oth t otal e conomic represents a a large large f fraction of b both total economic a c tivity and t o tal gr o ss d o mesti c investment activity and total gross domestic investment in in the the devel o ping w o rld. The t o tal e co n o mi c o utput developing world. The total economic output of of all all llowerower- and and middle-income middle-income countries countries as as measured measured by by GDP was $2,716 billi o n in 1987, with t o tal gr o ss GDP was $2,716 billion in 1987, with total gross domestic b i l loin. o69 n . ch of the d omestic investment investment of $662 billi Mu c apital costs of ctricity plants 6 9 capital costs of ele electricity plants must must be be paid paid in in 70 fo reign ex c hange, leading t o balan c e of payment foreign M u c h exchange,leading o f t h eto balance of payment pr oblems and and compounding compounding the problems of problems the problems of high high o perating and c apital co sts in the ele c tri c se c tor. operating and capital costs in the electric sector.

for Guidelines for of 61 U Methodology (Nairobi, Kenya: 1985), 43. Methodology (Nairobi, Kenya: United United Nations, Nationsi 985), p. p. 43. n iu fo r Development, Op. footnote 50, 62 t .e 6 3 d s the of 1990, p. the A Office of Technology Technology Assessment, April April 1990, p. 59. 59. . N . F a " F o r a discussion of these issues, see D. Barnes, Electric Power for Rural Growth (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, Press, 1987), 1987), pp. pp. 109-118. 109-118. A a t Center for Human g5 Settlements (Habitat), op. cit., footnote 61. 6 r i e Rural for Development CO: 1987), U 6 6 u o n ni M q fo r In t e r n a t io n al D e v elo p m e n t , c i t ., iv. n 6 7 ce t o h u s U . A t. fr o m Wo r ld Of the y Ibid., p.25. A slightly lower estimate ($oo I m o billion) from the w d a. n i C S Sector in Developing Countries, World Bank, Industry and Energy Department Paper Series, Paper No. 14, April 1989. f Sector in Developing Countries," World Bank, Industry and Energy DepartmentWorking Paper Energy Series, Paper No. 14, April 1989. o r N M e e A o k i a l9d B a n World Development Report (New NY: Oxford University Press, 1989), tables 3 and 9. u 6 t n g r s g i v e n i n t n W a AID estimates that around 45 percent of capital investment will t e 'NILS. AID estimates that around 45 percent of capital investment will be be in in foreign foreign exchange. exchange. U.S. U.S. Agency Agency for for International International Development, footnote footnote I A . C h u r c h i l l i a l 50, p. 25. e n 50, o p.r 25. n a n d o s l d , r c t R . n i B A f y e 33-718 - 9 0n -- 5 5 S a0 0 - u d e r s , s n a p o f r " F i n a n c i n C g n p r o

106 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries

Even with with the the enormous enormous financial, financial, technical, technical, and and institutional instituti onal effort effort targeted to to the development development of the electricity ele ctricity sector sector over over the past decades, decades, capacity capacity still is often often insufficient insufficient to to provide provide reliable, reliable, high-quality high-quality power p ower in developing developing countries. countries. Outages Outages are are common common in many many countries. countries. For For example, Bombay Bombay experiexperienced outages annually over a recent 5-year en ced 1,000 1,000 o utages annually o ver re c ent 5-year period.' peri od. 71 Even when power power is available, available, voltage voltage fluctuations f luctuations are are often often extreme, extreme, restricting restricting the use use of some s ome types types of of equipment. The electronic electronic circuits circuits of today's t odays compact compact fluorescent fluorescent light light bulbs, bulbs, for for examexample, do do not not tolerate tolerate wide wide voltage voltage fluctuations; fluctuations;72and and computer co mputer operations operations are are disrupted disrupted by by outages. outages. As As a n many result, iin many countries, countries, poor poor power power quality and and la ck of of reliability reliability undermine undermine the the economic economic benefits benefits lack of electric electric power. power. L ow reliability reliability results results iin formidable losses losses iin Low n formidable n e conomic productivity. productivity. Load Load shedding shedding in in India India is is economic estimated to cost cost the the equivalent equivalent of of 1 1 to to 3 3 percent percent of estimated to of GDP annually.73 Acc urately estimating estimating the the producproducGDP annually.' Accurately tivity lost when when existing existing equipment equipment cannot cannot be be tivity lost o perated due due to to power power outages outages is is difficult, difficult, and and operated estimating productivity lost lost as as industry industry forgoes forgoes the the estimating productivity pur chase and and use use of of new new electric electric equipment equipment is is even even purchase m ore uncertain; uncertain; however, however, the the impacts impacts may may be be quite quite more large. large. Ir onically, a a few few developing developing countries countries suffer suffer from from Ironically, an excess of of electric electric capacity. capacity. For For example, example, it has an excess i t has been estimated estimated that that seven seven East East African African countries countries have approximately 7,000 7,000 MW MW of of excess excess generating generating have approximately c apacity (i.e., (i.e., capacity capacity over over and and above above what what is is capacity needed for reliable reliable system system operation) operation) .74 .74 This This situasituaneeded for ti on results results from from the the "lumpiness" lumpiness of of electric electric genergenertion ating facilities, especially especially hydropower. hydropower. Putting Putting a a ating facilities, large new generating generating facility facility in in service service before before the the large new d omestic load load can can absorb absorb the the new new supplies supplies results results in in domestic o vercapacity, and and ties ties up up scarce scarce capital.' capital.75 overcapacity,

Figure 4-6-Electricity Consumption by Sector Figure Sector in Selected Regions of of the the Developing Developing World, World, 1985 Selected
Thousand GWh Thousand GWh

T =

Ott h he er r O C om mm me e ciia all//p pu ub blliic c C o rrc

300

m R e l m R es siid de en nt t ii a al 200 Ag grriic cu ull tt u r a l = A

1
100

= II nnd l = du us sttrrii a al

0
China China I n d India i a B r a Brazil z i l

SOURCE: SOURCE: International Energy Agency, World Energy Statistics Statistics and and -1987 (Pans: Balances 1971 -1987 (Pans: OECD, 1989). 1989).

Electricity Consumption
Industry consumes most most of developing world's worlds Industry consumes of the the developing ele ctricity (see (see figure figure 4-6 4-6 and and table table 4-5). 4-5). In contrast, electricity In contrast, ele ctricity use use in the United United States States is divided am ong electricity in the is divided among the industrial, residential, residential, and and public public service/ service/ the industrial, co mmercial sectors sectors (see (see table 4-5). China, China, the largest commercial table 4-5). the largest ele ctricity user user in developing w orld, 76 uses 75 electricity in the the developing world,'uses 75 per cent of of its electricity in industry. Similarly, Similarly, India percent its electricity in industry. India and use over over hal f their ctricity in and Brazil Brazil use half their ele electricity in industry. industry. A griculture uses uses large large amounts amounts of of ele ctricity fo r Agriculture electricity for pumping and China, China, while while residential pumping in i n India India and residential lighting and appliances appliances use use large large amounts amounts of of ele clighting and electri city in Brazil. tricity in Brazil.

Outlook Outlook for Improvements

The supplies varies varies widely widely in The mix mix of of energy energy supplies in the the devel oping worldfrom worldfrom China's Chinas heavy heavy reliance reliance on on developing coal sectors to co al in the industrial and residential se ctors t o Brazil s extensive extensive use use of of hydropower-based hydropower-based electricelectricBrazil's ity. Despite the the diversity diversity o off sources, sources, however, however, ity. Despite
Delhi, 1987), p. 6.,

71 WorldBank and Electricity Conservation (Washington, DC: inJ.T VanDomelen, Power to Spare: Spare: The The WorldBank Conservation (Washington, DC: World World Wildlife Wildlife Fund Fund and andConservation Foundation Foundation a 1988) 1988) p. 4. 4. t a p. Countries: E 72 n CA: December 1989). CA: 1989). L December a e w r for International Development, op. cit., footnote 73 r en U . inM. the Developing Developing World, 741, Hume, "Energy Efficiency Efficiency in in Developing Developing Countries, Countries," inm.Mimasinghe and and R. R. Saunders Saunders (eds.), Energy Energy Issues Issues in in the World, World World g ce S . Industry Bank and Energy Energy Department 1 (Washington Bank Industry and Department Working Working Paper, Paper, Energy Energy Series Series Paper Paper No. No 1 (Washington DC: DC: World WorlBank, 1988). 1988). y B A t. when came R 75 e g the electricity authorities to offer industry exceptionally strong incentives to buy electricity. Electricity was so cheap that it was used by the e electricity authorities to offer industry exceptionally strong incentives to buy electricity. Electricity was so cheap that it was used by industrial industrial E r e customers virtually as as a a boiler s customers virtually boiler fuel. fuel. Within Within a a few few years, years, however, however, load load growth growth in in other otheisectors reduced reduced surplus surplus capacity, capacity, but but the the industrial industrial users users were were xc k n by then reluctant give up up the e by then reluctant to to give the highly highly favorable favorable rates. rates. s e c a in the developing world s6 l 7 y r c e 0v f c ar y e o h p L o r I a n I n

Chapter 4--Energy Supplies in the Developing World .107 .107 Chapter Developing World

Table 4-5-Electricity Consumption by Sector, 1985 (percent)

China China 75 75 Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Residential . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Residential 7 Public service/commercial service/commercial . . . . . 5 Public 5 Railroads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Railroads 2 Other/unspecified . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 Total (percent) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 410,700 Total generation generation (GWh) (GWh) . . . . . 410,700 than 1 1 percent. percent. Less than End-use sector End-use sector India India 59 59 Brazil Brazil 58 58 United States United States 33 33 11 35 35 31 31, * 0 o 100 100 2,621,900 2,621,900

17 17 12 12 8 8 2 2 11

3 3 20 20 20 20 1t *

100 100 188,500 188,500

100 100 192,700 192,700

NOTES: Totals may not add to 100 percent due to rounding. Brazil. Brazil, China, and India account NOTES: Totals account for for 48 48 percent percent of of developing world world electricity electricity consumption. consumption. SOURCES: SOURCES: Tata Energy Research Institute, TERI Energy Data Directory and Yearbook Yearbook 1988(New Delhi, Delhi, India: 1989); 1989); lEA, World Energy Statistics and Balances 1970/1985 (Paris: OECD, 1987); !EA, Energy Balances of OECD Counties 1987- 1988( Pans: OECD, 1990).

several important characteristics characteristics of of the the energy energy supsupseveral important ply sector can can be be identified: identified: ply sector

The technologies technologies in in use use are are typically typically older, older, less less The e fficient, and and less less sophisticated sophisticated than than comparacomparaefficient, ble technologies in in the the industrialized industrialized countries. countries. ble technologies The electricity electricity sector sector accounts accounts for for a a large large share share The of foreign exchange exchange resources. resources. Rapid Rapid growth growth in in of foreign ele ctricity demand demand and and the the high high capital capital requirerequireelectricity ments of the the sector sector suggest suggest that the gap gap bebements of that the tween needed and and available available capital capital for for elecelectween needed tri city system system expansion expansion will will widen. widen. Therefore Therefore tricity the electricity systems systems in in many many countries countries could could the electricity co ntinue to to be be relatively relatively undependable, undependable, ineffiinefficontinue c ient, and and technologically technologically outdated. outdated. cient, The public public sector sector plays plays a a dominant dominant role role in most The in most aspe cts of of energy energy supply, supply, with with the the exception exception of of aspects biomass. bi omass.

supplies. In oil and and gas gas development, development, for for example, example, supplies. I n oil o ptions include include both both the the deployment deployment of technoloptions of new new technolo gies, such such as as horizontal horizontal drilling, drilling, and and the the developdevelopogies, ment of inn ovative financing financing mechanisms. mechanisms. Options Options ment of innovative fo r coal coal include include technologies technologies such such as as washing washing and and for s c reening, as well as strategies fo r minem o uth screening, as well as strategies for minemouth ele ctricity generati on t o relieve n transp ort electricity generation to relieve pressure pressure o on transport systems. Similarly, instituti o nal issues are c riti c al systems. Similarly, institutional issues are critical in in any discussion of oving the any discussion of impr improving the sustainability sustainability of of biomass bi omass resources. resources. B oth developing developing country country governments governments and Both and inter internati onal development development agencies agencies already ch national already pay pay mu much attenti on to to opportunities opportunities in in the the electricity electricity sector. sector. attention Te chnological opportunities opportunities range range from from industrial industrial Technological co generation, to to upgrades upgrades of on and cogeneration, of transmissi transmission and distri distributi on system fficiencies, t o the ore bution system e efficiencies, to the use use of of m more e fficient consumer consumer appliances. appliances. Institutional Institutional opportuopportuefficient nities include the ntribution of onutility genera nities include the co contribution of n nonutility generat ors to to electricity electricity networks. networks. tors A lthough technology technology c an d o mu ch t o improve improve the Although can do much to the energy sector, other other f actors also also a ffect its energy supply supply sector, factors affect its o peration: financial financial issues, issues, such such as as subsidies subsidies fo r operation: for ele ctricity prices prices or or the the high high cost cost of gas electricity of natural natural gas transp ortation; institutional institutional and and management management issues, transportation; issues, in cluding shortages shortages of of trained onnel; and including trained pers personnel; and the the in centive stru cture, n otably the ominant r ole played incentive structure, notably the d dominant role played by government in fossil fuel fuel exploration exploration and delivby government in fossil and delivery systems, all all str ongly influence influence system peraery systems, strongly system o operati ons, management, management, and cisionmaking in tions, and de decisionmaking i n the the energy supply sector. sector. energy supply

These characteristics of of the the energy energy supply supply sector sector These characteristics in the devel o ping w o rld suggest a number in the developing world suggest a number of of pr oductive opportunities opportunities for for improving improving the the effieffiproductive c iency of of the the energy energy supply supply system, system, recognizing recognizing that that ciency there are wide variati o ns am o ng devel o ping co unthere are wide variations among developing countries, and that many c hara c teristi c s that appear tries, and that many characteristics that appear inefficient ine fficient or or undesirable undesirable when when viewed viewed from from the c urrent perspective perspective of of highly highly developed developed nations nations may may current in fact represent represent rational rational choices choices given given prevailing prevailing in fact s ocial, economic, economic, and and technical technical conditions. conditions. social, A number of of instituti onal, technological, technological, and and A number institutional, engineering options can can be be considered considered for for improving improving engineering options the extraction, processing, processing, and and conversion conversion of of energy energy the extraction,

Chapter 5 Chapter

Energy and the Environment in Developing Countries

Contents
Introduction Intr oduction and and Summary Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1. . . . . . . . . . The Rural The Rural Sector Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3. . . . . . . . . . . . Causes of Causes of Environmental Environmental Degradation Degradation . . . . . * . . . . . .1 . . . . . . . * . * .1* * + . . . * . * 3 *****..** Environmental Envir onmental Impacts Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 .......... The Urban The Urban Sector Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 ............ Causes of Causes of Environmental Environmental Degradation Degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . . . . . . .2. . . . . . . . . . . 3 ....... Environmental Envir onmental Impacts Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 .......... Energy Production Energy Production and and Conversion Conversion . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1. . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 ........ coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 ............... co al . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Oil and Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 ............. Hydr Hydroelectricity oelectricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 ................. 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 ............ Biomass Bi omass . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 .............. Nu clear Energy Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Nuclear . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 ............ S o lar, W ind, and Other Other Renewable Renewable Energy Energy . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Solar, Wind, and . . . . . . . . . . .3 ..........0 ...... Greenh ouse Gases Gases and and Global Global Climate Climate Change Change . * . . . . . . . . .1 Greenhouse . . . . . . . . . .3 . . . . . . . . . .0 ..... Government G overnment Policies Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 ................3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1. . . . . . . . . . .

Page Page

111 113 113 119 123 123 124 128 128 128 128 129 129 130 130 131

Figures
Figure

5 -1. Suspended Suspended Particulate Particulate Matter Matter Levels Levels in in Selected Selected Cities, Cities, 1980-84 1980-84 . . . . . 1 ....2 . . . . .5. 125 5-1. 5-2. ,* 5 -2. Sulfur Sulfur Dioxide Dioxide Levels Levels in in Selected Selected Cities, Cities, 1980-84 1980-84 .., ** * . . . . . . . .1 . . . . . . . .2. . . . . . .6 . . 126

Page

Tables Tables
Table Page P a g e 5-1. Causes Causes and and Consequences Consequences of of Envir onmental Degradation Degradation in Areas . . . .1. . 1 . . 112 Environmental in Rural Rural Areas 2 5 -2. Estimates Estimates of of Land Use Changes Changes in Closed and and Open Open Tropical Tropical Forests, Forests, 5-2. Land Use in Closed circa c irca 1980 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 5 -3. Changes Changes in in Land Land Area Area Uses Uses * 5-3. * . . . *. * *, +***** 7 * . * . . . . . . .* . . . . . . *, * .*. . . * * . * *,, . . * + *****....1 1 117 5-4. * * * , *** * 1 2 1 5 -4. Sedimentation Sedimentation Rates Rates of of Some Some Reservoirs Reservoirs in in India India ........ , , .. * ......., * ,. * 121

Chapter 5 Chapter

Energy and the Environment in Developing Countries

Introduction and Summary
Many developing developing countries countries are are experiencing experiencing sigsignificant ni ficant environmental environmental degradation. degradation. In rural areas, population p opulation pressure pressure and and low low agricultural agricultural productiveproductivepeople into ties are among among the factors factors forcing forcing pe ople int o marginal and and ecologically ecologically fragile fragile lands. lands. Woodlands Woodlands are being being cleared cleared for for cropland cropland and and pastures pastures and and are are being commercially commercially logged. logged. The The use use of of biomass biomass for for f uel or or fodder fodder places places further further demands demands on on woodlands woodlands fuel and grasslands, particularly particularly in regions with and grasslands, in arid arid regions with high high ranching, logging, logging, p opulation densities. densities. Farming, Farming, ranching, population and the use use of of biomass biomass fuels fuels are are all all necessary necessary i f the the and the if pe ople dependent dependent on on these these resources resources are are to to survive. survive. people But these various various pressures pressures can can also also have have negative negative But these impa cts: destruction destruction of of tropical tropical forests forests and and biodiverbiodiverimpacts: sity ; desertification; desertification; ss oiil erosion and and increased increased sity; o l erosion d ownstream flooding flooding and and siltation; siltation; and and air air pollutionpollutiondownstream l ocal, regional, regional, and and global. global. local, In many urban urban areas areas of of developing developing countries, countries, In many rapid population growth, growth, inadequate inadequate infrastructure, infrastructure, rapid population and economic and and industrial industrial growth growth with with minimal minimal or or and economic inadequately enforced environmental environmental controls controls have have inadequately enforced led to high high levels levels of of pollution. pollution. Levels Levels o of fur led to f sul sulfur di o xide, parti c ulate, gr o und level o z o ne, and nitr odioxide, particulate, ground-level ozone, and nitrogen o xides of ten ex c eed th o se in industrialized gen oxides often exceed those i n industrialized co untries. Major Major sources sources include include electricity electricity generageneracountries. ti on, transportation, transportation, and and industrial industrial production. production. Greater Greater tion, use of fossil fossil fuels fuels in in the the modern, modern, primarily primarily urban, urban, use of se ctor can can also also lead lead to to environmental environmental degradation degradation sector and pollution in in the the rural areas where where these these f uels are and pollution rural areas fuels are extra cted from from the the ground ground and and transported transported to to the the extracted c ities, and and where where hydroelectric hydroelectric facilities facilities are are sited. sited. cities, Many have viewed viewed environmental environmental costs--degracosts--degraMany have dati on and and pollution pollution of of the the natural natural resource resource base-as base-as dation the price that that must must be be paid paid in order to to develop develop the price in order e conomically. l:Increasingly, Increasingly, however, however, others others argue argue economically. that environmental protection protection and and economic economic develdevelthat environmental o pment are are tightly tightly interconnected interconnected and and mutually mutually opment supp ortive. 2The The landless landless peasants peasants who who migrate migrate to to supportive.
to families, for ffragile ragile watersheds in order order t o feed feed their f amilies, fo r example, clear to example, clear land that is highly susceptible susceptible t o erosion. This c can lead t to serious soil loss and er osion. This an lead o seri ous s oil l oss and downstream siltation-ultimately red ownstream flooding flooding and siltati on-ultimately re ducing productivity of their their land as as well as as that that du cing the pr oductivity of of land downstream. their , of downstream. In turn, this can can exacerbate exacerbate their and and o others' thers p poverty. overty. This may may be parti particularly cularly signi ficant in developing developing countries countries because because their significant e conomies are are so so heavily heavily dependent dependent o n agri culture. economies on agriculture. F or the 2.8 2.8 billion billion people people in owest in come For i n the l lowest income co untries, agriculture agriculture accounted accounted for for f ully 31 31 percent percent countries, fully of gross domestic domestic product product (GDP) (GDP) in 1987 and and an of gross i n 1987 an even greater p ortion of oyment.3 Economic Economic even greater portion of empl employment. analyses clude envir onmental impa cts are analyses that that in include environmental impacts are impr oving knowledge knowledge of of this this interdependency interdependency and and improving may assist policymakers policymakers iin more wisely wisely making making may assist n more these tradeoffs. these tradeoffs.

Energy production and and use use contribute contribute to to environenvironEnergy production mental degradation in in developing developing countries. countries. Other Other mental degradation co ntributing factors factors include include p opulation gr owth, contributing population growth, inequitable land tenure, tenure, unsustainable unsustainable agri cultural inequitable land agricultural and forestry practices, practices, industrialization, industrialization, and and governgovernand forestry ment policies. I In order t o understand understand the the r ole of ment policies. n order to role of energy overall environmental environmental degradation, degradation, iit is energy iin n overall t is there fore necessary necessary to to include include these these o ther f actors in therefore other factors in the analysis. the analysis. Energy, used wisely, wisely, might might also also potentially potentially proproEnergy, used vide several imp ortant envir onmental bene fits in vide several important environmental benefits in devel oping countries. countries. Greater Greater energy energy inputs inputs int o developing into agri culture in the fo rm of ctive power, power, fertilizer, fertilizer, agriculture in the form of tra tractive and irrigation, for for example, example, can can substantially substantially imimand irrigation, pr ove agricultural agricultural productivities productivities where where soils soils and and prove c limates are are appropriate, appropriate, and and might might help help slow slow the the climates expansi on of of agri cultural lands lands necessary necessary t o feed feed a expansion agricultural to a burge oning population. population. (At (At the the same same time, time, however, however, burgeoning m odern agriculture agriculture might might also also cause cause environmental environmental modern damage : by by overuse overuse of cides, herbicides, herbicides, and damage: of pesti pesticides, and ffertilizers: ertilizers; by by waterlogging waterlogging and and salinizing salinizing irrigated irrigated

of 1 16, 3, 1988, pp. 373-384. vol.C 16, No. No.3,1988, 373-384. l (New NY: Oxford University Press, 1987). sion on Environment and Development, Our Common 2 e W (New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 1989), indicator and 3. 3 m o W T 1 1 1 r 111 o i l r s d ld

112 *Energy 112 Energy in Developing Countries

5 Table 5-l-Causes and Consequences of Environmental Degradation in Rural Areas Direct cause Underlying cause Underlying cause Direct cause Consequences I Population growth Population growth Deforestation Shifting agriculture Shifting agriculture Permanent agriculture Poverty Loss of biodiversity Permanent agriculture Poverty Caus Lack of of land land tenure Soil erosion Lack tenure Permanent Permanent pasture erosion Low-level Flooding Low-level agriculture inputs es Mechanization Mechanization of agriculture agriculture and/or and/or the the consolidaconsolidaa tion lands tion of of agricultural lands n Destructive management and Commercial logging Destructive logging, lack lack of of forest forest management and Commercial logging d protection, poor reforestation reforestation protection, poor Increased access to C o Increased access to forests forests along along logging logging roads roads for for farmers and ranchers farmers n s Production export markets markets Commercial agriculture, agriculture, ranching ranching Production for export e q Fiscal Fiscal policies and legislation, in part part to to promote promote u e exports exports of primary products due to to need for for n c foreign foreign exchange exchange to to service service debt. debt. Inappropriate valuations of natural rereInappropriate economic valuations e s sources biodiversity sources and biodiversity o Use of Biomass Fuels Inefficient use of fuelwood; fuelwood; overcutting of fuelwood Use Inefficient use fuelwood f resources resources E Use of forest biomass for fodder Use Shortages Shortages and lack of alternative alternative sources sources of of fodder fodder n Desertification Population growth Agricultural expansion expansion onto fragile lands lands Population growth v i Overgrazing Poverty Overgrazing Poverty Lack of land land tenure Burning grasslands r Lack tenure Burning of grasslands Low-level and/or the consolidation consolidation of Low-level agriculture and/or of o agriculture agriculture lands n Use of biomass Use biomass fuels Inefficient use of fuelwood; fuelwood; overcutting of fuelwood Inefficient use fuelwood m resources resources e Various; understood Climate Various; not well understood Climate change n Use of biomass fuels Lack access to higher higher quality Air pollution Use biomass Lack of access quality fuels fuels and and stoves stoves t Slash and burn burn agriculture agriculture Population growth Slash and Population growth Poverty Burning a l Poverty Burning of grasslands Lack of land land tenure Lack tenure D Low-level Low-level agricultural inputs e Salinization and and water-logging water-logging Poor Poor planning planning and and management management Cheap free water water contributing to inefficiency inefficiency Cheap or free g of irrigated lands lands investment in in infrastructure infrastructure I n a d e qInadequate u a t e investment SOURCE: Office ofrTechnology Assessment, 1990. a lands ; and and by by d use of of these these techniques techniques under under inapproinappromight ease the fficult tradeoffs tradeoffs between between economic economic lands; use might ease the di difficult priate soil and and climatic conditions). conditions).4 gr owth and onment; and olicy issues a climatic priate soil growth and the the envir environment; and p policy issues ass ociated w with accelerating the the introduction introduction of of t associated i t h accelerating 4 Energy -effiicient technologies technologies may may offer offer the the popoEnergy-efficient impr oved energy energy technologies technologies that that minimize minimize envienviimproved tential of simultaneously simultane ously reducing reducing the the total total cost cost of of tential of r onmental degradation. degradation. o ronmental delivering energy servi c es and c utting p o lluti o n. delivering energy services and cutting pollution. n New industrial processes may may increase increase productivity productivity This hapter traces traces the causes and consequences New industrial This c chapter the causes and consequences i processes of environmental degradation degradation iin developing councounand lower costs con sts while while reducing reducing hazardous hazardous wastes. wastes. and lower of environmental n developing Mu ch research research and devel o pment w o rk remains t o be tries, beginning in rural areas and fo ll o wing Much and development work remains to be tries, beginning in rural areas and following them them R d one to to bring bringumany many of of these these innovations innovations to to fruition. fruition. thr ough to to urban urban areas, areas, modern modern industry, industry, and and the use done through the use A later report reportr from from this this OTA OTA study study will will examine examine the the of ssil f uels. This This o rganization has A later of fo fossil fuels. organization has several several advan advanextent to which whi c h impr o ved te c hn o l o gies fo r energy tages o ver the m o re co nventi o nal c atal o ging of extent to improved technologies for energy tages over the more conventional cataloging of a pr oduction and and use can can contribute contribute to to economic economic envir onmental problems problems by by their their impacts impacts on on land, land, production use environmental l devel opment A and environmental environmental protection; protection; under under water, and air. First, it helps capture capture the dynamic development and water, and air. First, i t helps the dynamic what circumstan ces energy energy technology technology innovations innovations c auses of of envir onmental degradation degradation in developing what circumstances causes environmental in developing r e As s e s s m e n t Agriculture in A Role for U.S. Development Assistance, 4 a Government mice, Some note, however, that even s teep o r acid-infertile U (Washington, DC:U.S. Government Printing mice, September1988). Some note, however, that even steep or acid-infertile lands lands can can be be productive productive s shown over long periods periods as as shown by the centuries centuries of . long over by the of terraced terraced rice rice farming farming in in Asia Asia or or continuous continuous sugar-cane sugar-cane cropping cropping in in the the Dominican Dominican Republic. Republic. See StRicardo
vol. Radulovich, " A View View on on Tropical Tropical Deforestation," Nature, Nature v o l . 346, 346, July July 19, 19, 1990, 1990, p. p. 214. 214. S . C o

Chapter 5-Energy 5 Chapter and the Environment in Developing Countries Energ y struggle countries co untries in the various various contexts contexts of the rural struggle for survival by the landless peasant, or of the n urban for by the landless peasant, or a d effort e ffort to to develop develop modern modern industry in an economy economy t skilled h that has has limited limited capital, capital, technology, technology, and and skilled e t highlights human resources. resources. Second, Second, iit highlights the the differdifferEenvir n on ences environen ces in the causes causes and consequences consequences of v i areas. r mental degradation degradation between between rural and and urban urban areas. o n Third, i t helps complex Third, it helps illustrate some some of the co mplex m e that linkages between between these these environmental environmental problems problems t nomic make effective effective responses responses so so difficult. difficult. I If f neconomic eco i needs are are to to be be met met while while simultaneously simultaneously maintainmaintainn cs and ing environmental environmental quality, these dynamics dynami D oodeand co mplex interconnections interconnections must must be be understood underst and complex v e resp onded to to appropriately. appropriately. responded l o The Rural Sector p i n g Many developing countries countries are are suffering suffering signifiMany developing signifiC c ant environmental environmental degradation degradation in in rural rural o areas, inincant areas, c luding: rapid rapid devegetation/deforestation devegetation/deforestationu and and tthe cluding: he l oss of of irreplaceable irreplaceable biodiversity; biodiversity; desertification; deserti fication; loss n er osion of of crop crop and and pastureland; pastureland; watershed watershed degradaerosion degradat ti o n, siltati o n of d o wnstream waterways, downtion, siltation of downstream waterways, downr stream f l oo ding, and o ther impa c ts o n water quality stream flooding, and other impacts on water i quality and supplies; and and local local and and regional regional air po llution. In In and supplies; air pollution. e turn, these envir o nmental impa c ts may damage or turn, these environmental impacts may damage or s destr oy farm farm and and range range land land and and force force more more people people destroy int o watersheds watersheds and and other other ecologically ecologically fragile fragile lands-into lands-1 p otentially creating creating a a vicious vicious cycle cycle of of degradation. degradation. potentially 1 Clearing and burning burning woodlands woodlands and and grasslands grasslands for for Clearing and 3

113

encourage en courage misuse misuse of natural resources. resources. These These causes causes and consequences and consequences are listed in table 5-1. 5-1. The extent and rate of of envir environmental The onmental degradation degradation are difficult of are difficult to to quantify quantify accurately accurately under the best best of circumstances, c ircumstances, even even when reliable data are availavailable. As i t is, estimates vary widely o on basis of of able. As it n the basis the underlying definitions the definitions of what constitutes constitutes ecoecoor llogical ogical vulnerability o r degradation; degradation; the methodolomethodologies used for gies used fo r the analysis; analysis; and the assumptions assumptions used used t o go go from from local local measures measures of of degradati on t o global global to degradation to extrap olations. extrapolations.

The depiction of envir onmental degradation degradation also also The depiction environmental depends o n what measure is used fo r co mparis on. depends on what measure is used for comparison. L ocal degradation degradation may be severe severe and IrrespecLocal may be and rapid. rapid. Irrespective of the hardship this places on on people people in tive of the hardship this places in the the immediate region and and the the need need fo rl ocal responses, responses, immediate region for local it does not not necessarily necessarily translate translate int o corresponding corresponding it does into pr o blems at the regi o nal o r gl o bal s c ale. There There is problems at the regional or global scale. is co nsiderable variati o n in fo rm and degree of envi considerable variation in form and degree of envir o nmental degradati o n f r o m o ne regi o n t o an o ther. ronmental degradation from one region to another. C onsequently, an an attempt ow t o pla ce Consequently, attempt is is made made bel below to place estimates of the rate of l oc al envir o nmental degrada estimates of the rate of local environmental degradati o n int o the gl o bal co ntext. tion into the global context.

Causes Causes of of Environmental Environmental Degradation

A griculture Agriculture A s the the populations populations of of devel oping countries countries grow, grow, As developing the demands on for the on the land fo r food, food, fuel, fuel, and fodder fodder in crease accordingly. accordingly. Farmers then f ace three c increase Farmers then face three basi basic c hoices: they they can can 'mine' mine the the landtaking landtaking more more o ut choices: out of -until the ; of it it than than they they put put in in-until the land land is is exhausted exhausted; they can migrate migrate to to new new lands; lands; or or they can increase increase they can they can the level of of (capital-, (capital-, energy-, energy-, and and labor-intensive) labor-intensive) the level agri cultural inputs-mechanical inputs-mechanical traction, traction, fertilizer, fertilizer, agricultural and oninto the rder t o raise and irrigati irrigationinto the land land in in o order to raise yields. yields. These might also also include include higher formaThese might higher inputs inputs of of in informati on and management as as might might be ase fo r tion and management be the the c case for inter cropping, agroforestry, agroforestry, integrated integrated crop-livecrop-liveintercropping, st ock, or or other other sophisticated sophisticated agricultural agricultural systems.' systems.s stock,

agri culture or or pasture pasture also also contribute contribute to to the the global global agriculture in crease in in atmospheric atmospheric greenhouse greenhouse gases. gases. increase

The principal direct direct causes causes o of these forms forms of of The principal f these envir onmental degradation degradation are are shifting shifting cultivation, cultivation, environmental co nversion of of forest forest lands lands to to permanent permanent pasture pasture and and conversion agri culture, commercial commercial logging, logging, overgrazing, overgrazing, inapinapagriculture, pr opriate management management of of irrigated irrigated land, land, and and the the use use propriate of biomass biomass for for fuel. fuel. These These factors factors are are often often interconinterconne cted. Commercial Commercial logging logging of losed tr opical nected. of c closed tropical fo rests, for for example, example, opens opens new new areas areas with with roads roads and and forests, partial clearings, which which enables enables settlers settlers to to follow, follow, partial clearings, co nverting forests forests to to pasture pasture and and cropland. cropland. converting Underlying these causes causes are are factors factors such such as: as: Underlying these p opulation growth; growth; poverty; poverty; the the lack lack of of access access to to population m odern energy-intensive energy-intensive inputs inputs for for agriculture agriculture (me(memodern c hanical traction, traction, irrigation, irrigation, fertilizers, fertilizers, etc.); etc.); the the lack lack chanical of secure land land tenure tenure for for many many people; people; and and governgovernof secure ment pricing, tax, tax, and and other other policies policies tthat may ment pricing, h a t may
5

Enhancing Agriculture in

Mining the LandMining the land usually Land takes the fo rm of sh o rtened f all o w periods-leaving takes the form of shortened fallow periods-leaving inadequate time for for the the natural natural regeneration regeneration of of inadequate time "Mining" s oil-as population population pressures pressures m ount. It obviously soil-as mount. I t is is obviously t h e solution, but one often resorted to by a temp orary a temporary solution, but one often resorted to by l se without a on d ess to th o with ut access acc to the the modern modern agricultural agricultural those u s u a l l y
A Role for U.S. Development Assistance,

DC: Government Government Printing Printing Office, Office, September September 1988). 1988). (Washington, DC: U

. S .

114 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries

inputs needed needed to to raise raise crop crop yields. yields.6Declining Declining yields yields from f rom such such "mining" mining are seen in a number of local local and regional regional areas, areas, particularly particularly in Africa.' Africa. 7
Migration-Many Migrati on-Many people people migrate to to new new lands lands or or to to population or t o urban areas. In addition addition t op opulation pressures o r soil s oil exhaustion, exhaustion, factors factors forcing forcing people people to to migrate from f rom long-established long-established farming farming areas areas to to new lands include in clude the the low low productivity productivity of of traditional traditional agriculagriculture; ture ; inequities inequities in in land land tenure tenure for for many subsistence subsistence f farmers; armers; drought drought or or other other disasters; disasters; and, and, iin n some some areas, mechanization mechanization of of agriculture agriculture and/or and/or consoliconsolidati on of of agricultural agricultural lands. lands. In In many many cases, cases, currently currently dation f armed areas areas have have been been subdivided subdivided among among successuccesfarmed sive generations generations to to the the point point that that the the landholdings landholdings for fo r those those who who remain are, or or will soon soon become, become, marginal. Rwanda, for for example, example, the the average average marginal. IIn n Rwanda, smallh older had 1.2 hectares hectares in smallholder had 1.2 i n 1984 1984 and, and, by by traditi on, would would divide divide it it equally equally among among his his average average tradition, of ur sonsleaving sonsleaving them them 0.3 0.3 hectares hectares each. each. I of fo four If f the the same trend continues, continues, the the following following generation generation will same trend will have less have less than than 0.1 0.1 hectare hectare each.'Estimates each.8 Estimates of of the the number of landless landless or or near-landless near-landless (with (with too too little land to subsist) subsist) in in developing developing countries countries range range as as high high land to as 1 billion billion people, people, most most of of them them in in Asia. Asia.9 as 1

countries may live in rural areas are e ecologically countries areas that are cologically 10 vulnerable.'' To sustainvulnerable. T o generate generate good good yields on on a sustain able basis o on these lands of often requires larger inputs inputs able n these ten requires of lab labor and/or capital lands of or and /or c apital and technology technology than the lands left le ft behind-inputs behind-inputs to to which which these people people seldom seldom have access.' This maybe parti particularly newly have access.ll This cularly true in newly opened o pened areas areas where where infrastructure infrastructure (including (including access access to immit o extension extension efforts) efforts) is especially especially weak. The immi grants int into be un unfamiliar with the grants o these these areas may be familiar with different di fferent agricultural agricultural techniques techniques appropriate appropriate (sus(sustainable) tainable ) to to these new lands and resources. resources.

S Modern h Agriculture-Those farmers with access Agriculture i f t ood soils t o -good g soils and and water water resources resources and and modern modern to iagricultural n cultural inputs agri inputs c an in c rease the yields of can increase the yields of their their Those g c roplands. Modern Modern agricultural agricultural practices practices in developcroplands. in developf a r m e r s c i crop t h even may also be constraints on raising Of 6 u w P a c c e s Congress, of Technology Assessment op. cit., footnote 5, pp. 7 l 63t ff.; United Nations Food and Agriculture o Agriculture: The Next Next 25 25 Years, Years, Annex Annex I I , "The The Land Agriculture: The Land Resource Resource Base Base" (Rome, (Rome, Italy: Italy: United United Nations, Nations, 1986). 1986). U o i s . Nations Population The State of World Population 1990, New 1990. sUnited Nations Population Fund, "The State of World Population 1990," New York, 1990. r S va Common Poor: (New NJ: Transaction Books, 1989). s 9 Jeffrey Leonard, . a o H tonid C i.. t i o of Technology Assessment, op. cit., footnote 5. tru lJ n . who migrate may continue their previous pattern of o agriculture--rather than adopting shifting q 12 e g s agriculture techniques as as traditional traditional in in the the new new area. area. u agriculture techniques A l f n r. a Friends of the Limited, 1989). te f1 Deforestation Rates ii.,Tropical Forests and Their Climatic Implications e C3 c Implications (London: Friends of the Earth Limited, 1989). lr m Assessment, B y N s o4 1 ie a t o o s 15 r f s t is affected n U . t 1 5 vS y m ,i n g. S y Julia C. Allen and Douglas F. e c e The Causes of Deforestation in Developing Countries, Annals of the Association L I l a n O r C o on s Geographers, 75, No. No. 2, 2, 1985, 1985, pp. pp. 163-184. 163-184. y e Geographers, vvol. o l . 75, 6 M f e o r d t o p p. S y f Ecology Research on u s " K i r k R. Smith, " n in aq h e Tropical Agroecosystems in Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography, vol. 3, No. i Tropical s No1.3, No. 1, 1, 1982. 1982. Some Some of of the the biomass biomass ash ash generated generated serves serves T h eAgroecosy stems in SoutheastAsia," Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography, g m n f o a e r c nutrients for the crops subsequently subsequently planted. as , as nutrients for the crops planted. B i o f u e l r a s s r a e s e O T r a n s i e d e lt i o n , " , o f t s s e i w , s fs f P a c q s h E e o
n
ore

W age-paying jobs jobs are are scarce scarce for for those those who who are are Wage-paying fo rced to to migrate. migrate. Land-anywhere Land-anywhere they they can can get get forced it for subsistence subsistence agriculture agriculture and and fuelwood fuelwood is is often often itfor their only means means of of survival. survival. Increasingly, Increasingly, however, however, their only available lands are are remote, remote, only only marginally marginally producproducavailable lands tive, or ecologically ecologically fragile--on fragile--on upland upland regions regions that that tive, or are easily eroded eroded when when groundcover groundcover is is removed, removed, on on are easily arid or semi-arid semi-arid lands, lands, or or in forested areas areas of of high arid or in forested high bi ological diversity diversity (but (but which which may may have have poor poor soils). soils). biological A s many many as as 370 370 milli on people people in developing As million i n developing

In many regions, regions, shifting shifting agriculture agriculture is initially In many (Sing agri cul pra cticed by by those those who who migrate.12 migrate. 12 (Sing practiced agric ulture is also also practiced practiced traditionally traditionally by by "long-term" long-term ture is residents many areas areas and and is rm of residents in in many is a a sustainable sustainable fo form of agri culture iif fallow periods periods are are sufficiently sufficiently long.) long.) agriculture f fallow Shi fting agriculture agriculture begins begins with with forest-fallow forest-fallow syssysShifting tems which small small patches patches of cleared and tems in in which of land land are are cleared and c ultivated fo ra few years years and and then ft f allow fo r as cultivated for a few then le left fallow for as llong ong as as tw ot o three decades (see (see c h. 3 ). This two to three decades ch. 3). This remains remains an important form form of culture in Africa, an important of agri agriculture in west west Africa, s outheast Asian Asian hill mmunities, parts outh southeast hill co communities, parts of of S South A merica, 13 and elsewhere.'This elsewhere.14 This fo rm of fting America,"and form of shi shifting o r slash slash and and burn-agriculture burn-agriculture is is believed believed by by many many or t o be be the ost imp ortant cause cause of condary15 fo rest to the m most important of se secondary' forest destru ction and and to to be be roughly roughly comparable comparable to to comcomdestruction mer cial logging logging in impact o n primary forest ( table mercial in its its impact on primary forest (table 5 -2). 16 Shifting cultivation consumes enormous 5-2). am ounts of of bi omass energy energy in process of learing amounts biomass in the the process of c clearing 1 the forest.' the forest.17 '

-2-Estimates o f Land Table 5 5-2Estimates of Land Use Changes in in Closed and Open Tropical Tropical Forests, circa 1980 (million hectares per year) O Closed forest forest Seiler and S Food and e i Seiler and Foodr and Crutzen C u Crutzen A g r i c u l t u Agricultural r a l A g w Low H i g High h O r g aOrganization n i z a t i o n L a Lanly n ly p e n Open forest forest l e r o and Seiler and F o d Food and and t z e n Crutzen r i c u l t u r a Agricultural l M y e Myers r s L o Low w H i g High h Orga nization Organization 1 0 0 4 . . . . 91.9 60.6 00.0 54.5 0.6 0.6 3.9 3.9 3 3 6 . . . 43.4 33.3 86.8 6 1 0 _ . . _ _ _ . . .
71.7 20.2

Land use use change change

L a Lanly n ly . . . _ _ 71.7 31.3 80.8 a ft

Primary forest forest to:

Shifting cultivation 3 Shifting cultivation . . . . 2 . . . . .6. . 2.6 Permanent pasture ., ., ,, . . . 1 . . . 1.6 Permanent pasture 6 1 2 Permanent agriculture agriculture . . .0. . . 3 . 0.3 Logged forest Logged f o rest . . . . . . . . -. . . . . Logged forest to: Permanent p pasture a s t u r e . . . . . . .- . . . Permanent agriculture agriculture . . . . .-. .
Secondary 14.9 Secondary forest to: 1 4 . 9 Shifting cultivation . . . . . . . . . . . Permanent pasture ..., ...,. . .. . .. . . 0.5 0.5 Permanent pasture Permanent agriculture . . .0. . . 6 . 0.6 Permanent agriculture

r
. 63.6 . 41.4 . 22.2 . _ _

)
2 3 _ . . _ _ _

3 1 1 4

. . . .

23.2 1 1.1 1 1.1 64.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0

3 2 2 3

. . . . _ _

43.4 52.5 32.3 73.7

1 0

1 2.1 03.0

1 0 0

. . . _ _

21.2 80.8 7 0.7

1 1 0

96.9 01.0 20.2

z f t

4 0 . 40.0 0 1 0 . . 51.5 80.8

1 8 . 18.5 5 0 0 . . 1 0.1 1 0.1

2 2 . 22.0 0 _

2 1 . 21.9 9 1 1 . . 01.0 41.4

1 1 . 11.4 4 _ _

1 8 . 18.6 6 -

a ,
Z

NOTE: The data in this table maybe significantly inaccurate. The table is presented here only to provide a general indication of the rates and causes of deforestation. deforestation. The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) (FAO) and and Lanly Lanly data data are are essentially essentially the the same same (Lanly (Lanly is is the the principal principal author author of of the the FAO FAO study), study), based based primarily primarily on on official official government government statistics, statistics, and and maybe maybe underestimates underestimates 1 of the rate of deforestation. A more recent review by Myers, for example, indicates substantially higher rates. The UNFAO rategThe UNFAO currently currently has underway a more detailed study that that may may resolve resolve some of of these these large large discrepancies. discrepancies. I Norman Norman , e rs, DeforestationRatosin Tropical Forests and Their Climatic Implications (London: Friends of the Earth, December 1989).

tri
r l ft b

and Crutzen, Food and Agricultural SOURCE: R P. Detwiler and Charles A.S. Hall, "Tropical Tropical Forests Forests and and the the Global Carbon Carbon Cycle," Cycle, Science, Science, vol. 239, 239, Jan. 1, 1988, pp. 42-47, citing Seiler and Organization, Lardy, and Myers. ' ' '

ft rt C) tl

n e r g y in 116 E . Energy in Developing Developing Countries

ing countries countries use, to to varying degrees, improved improved plant species, species, synthetic synthetic fertilizers, fertilizers, pesticides pesticides and and herbicides, herbi cides, irrigation, irrigation, and and mechanized mechanized operations operations to to generate higher higher crop crop yields. yields. These These require require high high capital levels of c apital and energy energy inputs.
Modern M odern agriculture agriculture has, has, with with mixed mixed success, success, proprovided environmental, environmental, social, social, and and economic economic benefits. benefits. It has has moderated moderated cropland cropland expansion expansion into into ecologecologically i cally fragile fragile or or particularly particularly valuable lands through through technological te chnological advance advance (the (the green green revolution) revolution) and energy inputs inputs in in the the form form of of f ertilizer, irrigation, irrigation, and and fertilizer, me chanical operations. operations. Over Over the the 20-year 20-year period period mechanical f rom 1965 1965 to to 1985, 1985, cropped cropped areas areas increased increased by by only only from 14 percent, 35 35 percent, percent, and and 4 4 percent percent in Africa, Africa, South South 14 percent, A merica, and and Asia Asia while while their their populations populations increased increased America, by roughly 75 75 percent, percent, 60 60 percent, percent, and and 50 50 percent percent by roughly respe ctively (table (table 5-3). 5-3). Modern Modern agriculture agriculture has has also also respectively raised the personal personal incomes incomes of of many many farmers; farmers; and and iit raised the t has contributed to to national national economic economic growth growth in has contributed in many countries, especially especially in in Asia. Asia. many countries,

that depend more to that more on on resources resources internal t o the farming on purchases. f arming system and less o n external pur chases. These agricultural These agricultural and agroforestry agroforestry systems systems tend tend to to be very information be information and management-intensive.' management-intensive.19

Irrigated LandsIrrigation LandsIrrigation is an important important eleelement in modern frees farmer from ment modern agriculture. agriculture. It f rees the f armer f rom dependence dependen ce on on irregular rains and raises yields, allowing all owing doubledouble- and even triple-cropping. triple-cropping. Some Some 160 million 160 million hectares hectares of of land in developing developing countries countries are irrigated. In Asia million hectares are are Asia alone, alone, 100 100 milli on he ctares are irrigated, and this land produces irrigated, produces roughly roughly 60 percent percent of regions food food on on j ust 45 45 percent percent of cropped of the regions just of its cropped 20 area.'In India, more than 6 million electric area. In more million electric and 3 milli on diesel diesel pump pump sets sets have have been been deployed deployed (see (see c h. million ch. consuming nearly nearly 2,000 2,000 GWh GWh of ctricity and 3) of ele electricity and 3 ) , consuming 3 million diesel f fuel 3 million tons tons of of diesel uel in 1985. 1985.21
21 Inadequate investment and and poor poor management management Inadequate investment have resulted in ous degrees degrees of on have resulted in vari various of salinizati salinization and /or waterl ogging of and/or waterlogging of irrigated irrigated lands lands in i n many many co untries. For For example, example, by by one one estimate 75 percent percent countries. estimate 75 of s irrigated irrigated land ffers salinizati on of Pakistan Pakistan's land su suffers salinization and /or waterlogging, waterlogging, with with corresponding corresponding reductions reductions and/or 22 in crop yields. S.ome 20 million hectares-roughly in crop yields hal Indias irrigated irrigated croplands croplands have have sufficient sufficient half--of 2 2f--of India's salt buildup t o reduce reduce pr oductivity; another another 7 on salt buildup to productivity; 7 milli million S om e hectares of land in India n now lie unused unused due t to he c tares o w o 2 0 23 ex c essive salt. ( Similar pr o blems a ff li c t the United excessive salt.' (Similar problems afflict the United m i l l i o States, where 20 20 to to 25 25 percent percent of on States, where of the the 20 20 milli million n he ctares of of irrigated lands are are a ffected by hectares irrigated lands affected by saliniza salinizah e 24 c t a ti on. ) Reclamation Reclamation is possible thr ough impr ovehon.') is possible through improver e sin -canals ments infrastructure to ments canals and other other in frastructure t o reduce reduce r o u g h leakage and by by providing providing drainage drainage from from the ields, leakage and the f fields, l y it but is expensive. expensive. but it is

M odern agriculture agriculture has has also also had had serious serious shortshortModern co mings. IIt has increased increased economic economic inequities inequities bebecomings. t has tween those those farmers farmers who who have have sufficient sufficient land and and a ccess to to capital capital and and other other inputs inputs necessary necessary for for access high -yield agriculture agriculture and and those those farmers farmers who who do do not not high-yield have such resources, resources, and and it has displaced displaced laborers laborers in in have such it has many cases. IIt has caused caused environmental environmental damage damage many cases. t has thr ough the the misuse misuse of of fertilizers, fertilizers, pesticides, pesticides, and and through herbi cides. Inadequate Inadequate investment investment and and poor poor manmanherbicides. agement have led led to to waterlogging waterlogging and and salinization salinization of of agement have valuable irrigated lands. lands. Finally, Finally, modern modern agriculagriculvaluable irrigated tural techniques require require dramatic dramatic increases increases in in comcomtural techniques Concern over over environmental environmental mer cial energy energy use.18 use. 18 Concern mercial impa cts and and high high dependence dependence on on purchased purchased inputs inputs impacts has led to to considerable considerable interest interest in farming systems systems has led in farming

The technology to to prevent prevent o r minimize minimize salinizasalinizaThe technology or ti on and and waterlogging waterlogging has has been been available ce the tion available sin since the

"Note that the energy intensity of of shiftingor slash slash and and burn-cultivation burn-cultivation may may be be significantly significantly higher higher than than commercial commercialagriculture when when the energy consumed consumed by by burning burning off off the the standing standing biomass biomass is is taken taken into into account. account. However, However, commercial commercial fuels fuels are are little little used, used, if if at at all, all, in ishifting agriculture. agriculture. in on for Development 19 National Research Council Council (Washington (Washington DC: DC: National National Academy Academy Press, Press, 1983, U.S. Congress, Congress, Office Assessment, op. cit., footnote National Research 1983, 1984); 1984); U.S. Office of of Technology Technology Assessment, op cit., footnote A 5; et al., al., Sustainable Agricultural Systems Systems (Ankeny, Iowa; Soil 5; Clive A. Edwards Edwards et Sustainable Agricultural Soil and and Water Water Conservation Society, Society, 1990); 1990); Robert Robert Winterbottom and and d v A. Peter Peter and Sustainable Sustainable Development: Development: Making Making The The Connection," AMBIO, vol. vol. 16, 16, No. No. 2-3, 2-3, 1987, 1987, pp. pp. 1(W11O; 1(W110; C. C. Okail i sT. Haziewood, "Agroforestry and and Household Relations t Production in r Sumberg, ando J.E. Sumberg, Sheep "Sheep and and Goats, Goats, Men Men and and Women: Women: Household Relations and and Small Small Ruminan Rumin2oPeoduction in Southwest Southwest Nigeria," Understanding Rural Households Households and and Farming Systems, Joyce Joyce Lewinger Moock Africa Farming Systems, Moock (cd.) (cd.) (Boulder, (Boulder, CO: CO: Westview Westview Press, Press, 1986). 1986). y s Rural Equitable Development C Environment and Poor: Development Development Strategies 213Montague Yudelman, "Sustainable and Equitable Development in Irrigated Environments," Environment and the the Poor: Strategies oCommon Agenda, Jeffrey (cd.) (New for a for a Jeffrey Leonard Leonard (ed.) (New Brunswick, NJ: NJ: Transaction Transaction Books, Books, 1989). 1989). m 21Asbok Desai, "Energy Balances for India, 1985-86, 1985-86," contractor contractor report report prepared prepared for for the the Office Office of of Technology Technology Assessment, Assessment,1990. This is equivalent m to 125,000 GJ. i op. cit., footnote 20. Total cmp areas from World Resources Institute, World Resources (New NY: Oxford University 2 t 2 Whitman et al. in the Near East Region, proceedings of the Press, 1990). For other estimates, see Y Press, 1990). For other estimates, see C.E. Whitman et al.(eds.), Rainfed Agriculture in the Near East Region, proceedings of the workshop at at Amman Amman t 18-23, 1986, 1986, USDA and USAID, Jordan, Jan. 18-23, USDA and USAID, p. p. 92. 92. u e d Jan. op. cit., 20. Total crop areas from World Resources 1990 -91, o p. Ci t ., e el 2 3 m o4 Y In s t i t u t e, World Resources (New NY: 2 a nn u d W , t r e l o o m lhd p en a R

Table in Land Area Uses Ta b l e 5-3-Changes 5

Other land land Forest/woodlands Cropland Permanent Other Forest/woodlands Cropland Permanent pasture pasture 3 area 1964-66 to 1964-66 to 1964-66 to to 1964-66 to 1964-66 1964-66 1964-66 - 1964-66 1985-87 1983-85 1985-87 1983-85 1985-87 1983-85 1985-87 1983-85 Total Population 1985-87 1983-85 1985-87 1983-85 1985-87 1983-85 1985-87 1983-85 Population Chan percent percent percent percent area density, 1989 percent percent percent percent percent percent percent density, 1989 percent percent percent percent percent of total total of total total g e s of total total oftotal total (million (people of change change of change of change of (people per change change change change land area i in land area in forest forest in other other uses uses land area land area area in Region hectares) land in pasture land in hectares) thousand ha) land land in pasture in cropland n Africa . . . . . . . . . 212 6.2 14.0 26.7 -0.5 23.2 -8.6 43.9 3.6 2,965 212 6.2 14.0 26.7 0.5 23.2 -8.6 43.9 3.6 197 12.8 17.2 -2.4 1.5 7.7 32.0 -5.9 38.0 L N. America . . . . 197 2,139 12.8 17.2 2.4 1.5 7.7 32.0 -5.9 38.0 166 8.0 35.2 27.0 9.4 51.6 -7.3 13.4 -1.4 S. America . . . . 1,753 1,753 166 8.0 35.2 27.0 9.4 51.6 -7.3 13.4 -1.4 a 16.8 4.2 25.3 -3.0 20.2 -4.6 37.7 -0.7 Asia . . . . . . . . . . 2,679 1,139 1,139 16.8 4.2 25.3 -3.0 20.2 -4.6 -0.7 37.7 n 473 29.6 -4.9 71 19.4 3.9 -5.0 17.8 33.2 Europe . . . . . . . 1,050 1,050 29.6 -4.9 7.1 19.4 3.9 5.0 17.8 33.2 d 1988-89 (New York, NY: Books, 19SS) table 16.1; World Resources institute, Work/ Resources 1990-91 (New NY: SOURCE: World Resources Institute, World Resources Resources 1988-89 (New York, NY: Basic Books, 19SS) table 16.1; World Resources institute, Work/ Resources 1990-91 (New York, NY: Oxford Oxford A University Press, 1990), table 17.1. r e a U s e s

Lif s a m u l

1 18 E n e r g y in Developing Countries 118 . Energy

1950's, 1950 s, yet yet designers designers frequently frequently fail fail to to incorporate incorporate these improvements improvements in their projects. projects. Many factors factors contribute co ntribute to to this failure. failure. One factor factor may be that designers tend tend to to be be overly overly optimistic optimistic in their initial appraisals: appraisals : they they assume assume that waterlogging waterlogging and salsalinization inizati on will not not occur occur for for 20 to to 30 years, and that drainage systems and other other capital-intensive capital-intensive imimprovements pr ovements will not not be necessary necessary before before then. This This lowers l owers the apparent costs costs of their projects projects and may improve t h a t the projects w i l l be impr ove the the chances chances that projects will appr oved. 25 approved.

Pasture -The opening opening up up of of lands lands for for pasture pasture is is Pasture-The a significant significant cause cause of of deforestation deforestation (table (table 5-2) 5-2) parti cularly iin Central and and South South America America where where particularly n Central grazing lands have have increased increased by by more more than than 9 9 percent percent grazing lands during the past past 20 20 years years (table (table 5-3). 5-3). during the Overgrazing may also also play play a a signi ficant r ole in the Overgrazing may significant role in the deserti fication of of semi-arid semi-arid regions.' regions. 26 Overgrazing desertification Overgrazing and trampling can can quickly quickly destroy destroy the the grass grass layer. layer. and trampling W ithout the the protection protection of of ground ground cover, cover, topsoil topsoil can can Without be washed or or blown blown away, away, lowering lowering f ertility. In be washed fertility. In s ome areas, areas, the the f ull force force of of rain on the soil c an bring some full rain on the soil can bring c lay particles particles to to the the surface surface and and cause cause surface surface clay hardening and sealing sealing that that seeds seeds cannot cannot penetrate.' penetrate.27 hardening and The end result result of of such such processes processes can can be be desertificadesertificaThe end tion.' ti on. 28 Herders grasslands t o en courage new Herders burn burn grasslands to encourage new gr owth; numerous numerous studies studies have have shown shown this this new new growth; gr owth to to be be particularly particularly good good forage forage for for their their growth 29 herds. More generally, generally, repeated repeated burning burning is is bebeherds.'More lieved to help help create create and and maintain much of lieved to maintain much of the the w orlds savannah savannah and and grassland. grassland.30Such Such brushfires brushfires worlds in the African African grasslands grasslands may may burn as mu ch as as 2 2 in the burn as much billi on tons tons of of biomass biomass annually, annually, cause cause volatilization volatilization billion
25Yudelman, op. cit., footnote 20.

of o organic sulfur, allow of rganic nitrogen nitrogen and sul fur, and all ow excessive excessive leaching This maybe lea ching of other other valuable valuable nutrients.' nutrients.31 This maybe particularly much of the Sahel, where parti cularly damaging damaging in mu ch of Sahel, where growth lack of gr owth is already strongly strongly limited by the la ck of 32 nutrients. 'Thus, herder f feed nutrients. Thus, brushfires brushfires help the herder eed his animals in the near term but, in the l longer term, animals onger term, soil fertility, brush and and trees trees that h hold llower ower s oil f ertility, and kill brush old the soils from the soils and pull nutrients up f rom deep deep in the ground. 'Brush gr ound. 33 Brush and grassland fires fires may also also be significant pollution signi ficant contributors contributors to to regional regional air p ollution and may contribute may contribute modestly modestly to to the global global increase increase in greenh ouse gases.' gases.34 greenhouse

M ore stable stable supplies supplies of of fo rage might reduce reduce the More forage need of herders herders to to maintain maintain large large numbers numbers of of animals need of animals in order t o ensure ensure the ew thr ough in order to the survival survival of of a af few through peri ods of ought. Higher Higher quality forage (higher (higher periods of dr drought. quality forage pr otein co ntent) w ould redu ce the o burn protein content) would reduce the need need t to burn grasslands. Inputs of of c apital- and and energy-intensive energy-intensive grasslands. Inputs capitalffertilizer, ertilizer, increased increased supplies supplies of of water, and mechanimechaniwater, and c al harvesting rage (or (or even rops) cal harvesting of of the the fo forage even grain grain c crops) when its protein protein content content is is at maximum-as is when its at a a maximum-as is co mmon in in industrial industrial countries-might countries-might aid achievcommon aid in in achieving oth of of these goals. ing b both these goals.

Commercial Logging--Commercial logging logging imimCommercial LoggingCommercial pa cts perhaps perhaps 3 3 to to 5 5 million million hectares hectares of pacts of primary primary tr opical forest forest annually (table 5-2). 5-2). In tropical annually (table In many many areas, areas, o nly the logs are are rem oved f rom the only the highest highest grade grade logs removed from the fo rest. But But fo r every every tree tree removed, removed, roughly roughly 5 5 to to 10 forest. for 10 o ther trees trees are are destroyed.' destroyed. 35 C ommercial logging logging also also other Commercial devel ops roads roads that that allow allow settlers settlers access access to to forested forested develops regi ons, where where they an c lear the rests fo rf arms o r regions, they c can clear the fo forests for farms or ranches. ran ches. Biomass FuelsBiomass-wood, FuelsBiomass-wood, crop crop residues, residues, and animal dung-is dung-is the the primary primary fuel fuel fo r people people in and animal for in

H. Schlesinger et Biological Feedbacks in Global Science, vol. 247, Mar. 2, 1990, pp. 1043-1048. 26 On science National W 27 i l l and Mohamed Skouri, Academy of Sciences, 1983); Balancing Development and Conservation in N Academy of Sciences, 1983); Georges Novikoff and Mohamed Skouri, "Balancing Development and Conservation in Pre-Saharan Tunisia," AMINO, ia10, a OS. 2-3, 2-3, 1981, 1981, pp. 135-141. t N v01.10, Nos. pp. 135-141. m i2o Agriculture: The Next 25 Years, Annex 11, "The Land Land Resource Resource Base, Base," Op. Op. Cit., Cit., 8 H n footnote U a 7. . ln i Stryker, Technology, Human and Ecology in the Arid and Semi-Arid Tropics, in H. Jeffrey (cd.), op. cit., footnote 9. S 29 R te pp. c 1. e 30 d h D 1363-1368; Daniel Land Use and Abuse in the East African Region, vol. 12, No. 6, 1983, pp. 296-301; DJ. Pratt and M.D. s C 1363-1368; Daniel Finn, "Land Use and Abuse in the East African Region," AMMO, vol. 12. No. 6, 1983, pp. 296-301; DJ. Pratt and M.D. Oviynne N le i r Rangeland Management and and Ecology East Africa (Huntington Robert E. a (eds.), Ecology in in East (Huntington NY: NY: Robert E. Kreiger Publishing Publishing Co., Co., 1977). 1977). a e r Science a l t 31 s c r S National Academy of i N National Academy of Sciences, Sciences, 1983); 1983); World World Resources Resources Institute, Institute, World World Resources Resources 1990-91 (New (New York, NY: NY: Oxford Oxford University University Press, Press, 1990). 1990). ic k a 1983, pp. 1341-1347. o a2 t 3 n S h g n io 11 op. cit., footnote 29. g t 33 C a s n . a e r S t World Resources 1990-91 (New NY: Oxford University o n 3 4 F l B r y ry t , W and Scientist, 12, pp. o R5 3 r e ke m O r o er F e t e r , c w l d d s e d m a o ir e R a e P a lln , p e n a e n . " . , B s d r a

African

Environment in in Developing Developing Countries Countries 119 119 Chapter 5--Energy and the Environment

rural areas, areas, and and in many regions regions it is also also important important for fo r the urban poor poor (see (see ch. ch. 3). 3). Until recently, recently, it was widely believed believed that that many many developing developing countries countries were on on the the verge verge of being transformed transformed into into treeless deserts or deserts or mountain mountain wastelands wastelands due due to to the the demand demand for fo r fuelwood. fuelwood. These These predictions predictions were were largely largely based based model, which which assumed assumed a a freed freed on h e " g ap" o n tthe gap model, per-capita per -capita demand demand for for fuelwood fuelwood and a growing growing population p opulation while while at the same same time time the the forest forest base base was declining de clining due to to agricultural agricultural expansion expansion and overover36 c cutting utting of of the forest.' forest.
recent In more more re cent studies, however, however, it has been found found that the the use use of of fuelwood fuelwood is is highly highly elastic elastic according according t o its its availability availability and and the the labor labor required required to to collect collect it to o r, iif f traded, traded, its its price. price. When When fuelwood fuelwood is is difficult difficult to to or, o btain by by foraging, foraging, people people quickly quickly resort resort to to lower lower obtain quality wood, agricultural agricultural residues, residues, or or dung. dung. More More quality wood, generally, rural subsistence subsistence farmers farmers cause cause relatively relatively generally, rural little damage to to forests, forests, as as they they usually usually take take only only little damage deadw ood or or small small limbs. limbs. They They do do not not have have the the tools tools deadwood t o cut cut down down large large trees. trees. Much Much of of the wood they to the wood they collect is from hedgerows hedgerows or or other other sources sources near near their their f arms. In In Kenya, Kenya, for for example, example, trees trees o utside the the forest forest farms. outside supply half the the fuelwood fuelwood demand.' demand.37 A nd iin West supply half And n West Java, one study study found found that that three-fourths three-fourths of of all the Java, one all the f uel collected collected came came from from within within family family courtyards courtyards fuel and gardens, and and tw o-thirds of fuel was was branches branches and gardens, two-thirds of this this fuel and twigs .38 .38 and twigs

scarce prices (ch. 3).' The extent of of the the s carce and pri ces climb climb (c h. 3 ). 39 The damage to damage to the forest forest resulting from from commercialized commercialized fuel i l l then depend on f uel demand w will on the distance distance between the user of the the fo forest, between user and the forest, forest, the size size of rest, the size of the demand, the rate of of regr regrowth, the owth, and other factors. use of of bi biomass for fuel is n not o ther f actors. The The use omass fo rf uel is ot usually a principal I t does, usually principal cause cause of of deforestation. deforestation. It does, however, reh owever, add additional additional pressure on on forest forest re sources. n arid or s ources. I In or semi-arid semi-arid regions, regions, where where forest forest growth and there is a high p population density gr owth is slow slow and opulation density or demand fo for fuelwood, such o r a concentrated concentrated urban demand rf uelwood, su ch as the African of bi biomass as African Sahel, the use use of omass fuels fuels can can co ntribute significantly significantly to to local local deforestation.' deforestation.40 contribute Similarly, omass fuels fuels can can lead o local local Similarly, the use of of bi biomass lead t to deforestation in some there is is a a concende forestation in some cases cases where where there concentrated commercial trated commercial or or industrial industrial demand. demand.

Environmental Environmental Impacts The environmental impacts impacts of of agriculture, agriculture, ran chThe environmental ranching, lumbering, and omass fo rf uel ing, lumbering, and the the use use of of bi biomass for fuel include in clude deforestation, deforestation, desertification, desertification, soil soil erosion, erosion, fflooding, looding, pesticide pesticide and and fertilizer fertilizer runoff runoff from from cropcropland, and air p o lluti o n f r o m bi o mass f uels. land, and air pollution from biomass fuels.
Deforestation' De forestation 41

In contrast to to rural rural foragers, foragers, commercialized commercialized In contrast f uelwood and and charcoal charcoal operations operations to t o supply urban fuelwood supply urban households, h ouseholds, commercial commercial facilities facilities and and industrial industrial o perations often often cut cut whole whole trees trees and and can can damage damage or or operations destr oy forested forested areas. areas. The impa ct o of commercial destroy impact f commercial demands for for fuelwood fuelwood are are limited, limited, however, however, as as users users will switch switch to to fossil fossil fuels fuels when fuelwood fuelwood becomes becomes

The forests of of the the developing developing world world provide provide a The forests a number ources and fits, in cluding foo d, number of of res resources and bene benefits, including food, are ffuel, uel, fodder, fodder, fiber, fiber, timber, and medicines. medicines. Forests Forests are a vital ecological ecological resource, resource, protecting protecting soils, soils, mainmaina vital taining diverse plant fe, regulating taining diverse plant and and animal animal li life, regulating the the fflow low of and playing ortant r ole in of water, water, and playing an an imp important role in the the gl obal carbon carbon cycle. cycle. Forests Forests may may also also strongly strongly global in fluence regional regional climates.' climates.42 The loss of opical influence The loss of tr tropical fo rests not not o nly threatens threatens t o deprive orld of forests only to deprive the the w world of valuable resources on on which which it currently depends, depends, valuable resources i t currently but also to to foreclose foreclose opportunities opportunities to to discover discover new new but also

DiscussionPaper on proceedings of the 36 Seminar, Harare Seminar, Harare Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe, Feb. Feb. 1-5, 1-5, 1988, 1988, UNDP/World Bank Bank Energy Energy Sector Sector Management Management Assistance Assistance Program, Program, Activity Activity Completion Completion Report Report No. No. G 085/88. er 1. 12, 1983, a l 37pIn1 O'Keefe, Fuel "Fuel for for the People: Fuelwood in the the Third Third World," AMB/0, VO vol. 1983, pp. 21-26. d of Household Energy to Meet Asian Village 38m, H F Approaches, M. Richard Morse, and and M. M. Hadi Hadi Soesastro (eds.) (Boulder, (Boulder, CO: CO: WestView WestView Press, Press, 1984), 1984), p. p. 114. 114. a Approaches, M . Nund Islam, Richard Morse, o di F. Barnes, Understanding Prices in Developing Nations, draft, Household Energy Industry and Energy l3 9 s o Bank, e World Washington 1989. World Washington DC, DC, Oct. Oct. 31, 31, 1989. D e s a s o y F. Barnes, World Population Growth, Wood Fuels, and Resource problems in Africa, Industry and Energy 4u 0 n o , gl ,D Department Working 26, March Department Working Paper Paper No. No. 26, March 1990; R. R. Moss Moss and and W. W. Morgan, Fuelwood and and Rural Rural Energy Energy Production Production and and Supply Supply in in the the Humid Tropics Tropics " P a " (Dublin, Ireland: Tycooly International International Publishing Publishing Ltd., Ltd., 1981); 1981); Finn, op. op. cit., cit., footnote footnote 30; 30; Dennis Dennis Anderson Anderson and and Robert Robert Fishwick, World World Bank, os u l Ireland: o F D Fuelwood Deforestation in "Fuelwood Consumption and and Deforestation in African African Countries, Countries," World World Bank Bank Staff Staff Working Working Paper, Paper, No. No. 704, 704, 1984. 1984. ig l c i. of and to Congress, of Technology Changing By Degrees: a s 41 y B s F Assessment, Technologies Technologies to to Sustain Sustain Tropical Tropical Forest Forest Resources, Resources, To Reduce Greenhouse Greenhouse Gases, Gases, forthcoming; U.S. F To Reduce U.S. Congress, Congress, Office of of Technology Technology Assessment, A a c . r (Springfield, VA: National Technical Technical Information Information Service, Service, March 1984); and and Robert Robert Winterbottom, Taking OTA-F-214 o 0T4-F-214 (Springfield, VA: National March 1984); "Taking Stock: Stock: The The Tropical Tropical Forestry Forestry n r u B Plan Action Plan After d Action After Five Five Years, Years," World World Resources Resources Institute, Institute, Washington, Washington, DC, DC, June June 1990. 1990. a n s e la C. Nobre, and P. Sellers, Amazon Deforestation and Climate Change, Science, vol. 247, Mar. 16, 1990, pp. 1322-1325. 4 e2 s
r t y s i. n a s 1 , : o l ie S " n s e s

120 E n e r g y in . Energy in Developing Developing Countries

potential p otential sources sources of of wealth and scientific scientific knowlknowledge. On On the other other hand, hand, tropical tropical forests forests offer offer an economic e conomic opportunity opportunity that the poor poor in developing developing countries co untries wish to to seize as quickly quickly as possible.' possible.43 Governments G overnments may may also also want want to to colonize colonize forest forest lands to in order order to to establish more more clearly clearly their legal claim claim t o national nati onal territory. territory.

Desertification Deserti fication Desertification a variety of of f factors, Deserti fication can can result from from a actors, depending o on long-term clidepending n the region, region, including including l ong-term c limate trends, overgrazing, practices, ctices, mate overgrazing, poor poor farming farming pra and deforestation.' Although and deforestation.48 A lthough anecdotal anecdotal evidence evidence indicates regions are be becomindi cates that drylands in many regi ons are coming decertified ing decertified at an increasing increasing rate, there is little reliable data t to support the c case. "Global reliable o supp ort the ase. The Global Assessment n late A ssessment of Soil Soil Degradation," Degradation, initiated initiated iin 1987 by the United Nations Environmental Program 1987 Nations Envir onmental Pr ogram and the the Internati International Soil Reference and In Information and onal S oil Re ference and formation Centre in the Netherlands, should of Centre should provide provide some some of these data. these data.

The rate of global global deforestation-from deforestation-from all causes-causes-is highly highly uncertain, uncertain, with estimated rates in the early 1980s ranging to 1980s ranging from from roughly roughly 0.5 percent' percent44 t o 1.8 45 percent' per cent annually. These These rates rates appear appear to to be be acceleraccelerating due due to to increasing increasing population population and other other prespressures noted sures noted above. above.
The UNFAO The UNFAO 1990 1990 Forest Forest Resources Resources Assessment Assessment estimates the current annual global global deforestation deforestation rate as 1.2 1.2 percent-double percent-double t their estimate fo r rate as h e i r estimate for 46 1980. Forested areas areas and and deforestation deforestation rates rates vary vary 1980.'Forested widely between countries. countries. Indonesia Indonesia and and Brazil Brazil have have widely between huge areas of of closed closed forests forests (100 (100 and and 350 350 million million huge areas he ctares, respectively) respectively) and and annual annual rates rates of of deforestadeforestahectares, ti on of of perhaps perhaps 0.4 0.4 to to 1.4 1.4 percent percent and and 0.5 0.5 to to 2.3 2.3 tion per cent, respectively. respectively. Aggregate Aggregate figures, figures, however, however, percent, tend to obscure obscure severe severe deforestation deforestation occurring occurring in in tend to c ertain regions. regions. Ivory Ivory Coast, Coast, for for example, example, has has just just 16 16 certain milli on hectares hectares of of forest forest remaining, remaining, and and suffers suffers an an million annual deforestation rate rate variously variously estimated estimated bebeannual deforestation tween 6.5 and and 15.6 15.6 percent. percent. A A number number of ther tween 6.5 of o other countries co untries lie lie between between these these extremes, extremes, with with forested forested areas of of 5 to to 50 50 million million hectares hectares and and deforestation deforestation rates variously estimated estimated in range of o8 8 rates variously in the the range of 2 2t to per cent annually annually .47 .47 A At t these these rates, rates, their their closed closed percent fo rests could could disappear disappear in in a a few few decades. decades. forests

Impa cts o of Deforestation and and Desertification Desertification Impacts f Deforestation A mong the the potential potential impacts impacts of of deforestation deforestation and and Among deserti fication are are soil soil erosion erosion and and degradation, degradation, desertification ffuelwood uelwood and and fodder fodder shortages, shortages, increased increased flooding, flooding, mi croclimatic changes, changes, and and loss loss of of bi odiversity. 49 microclimatic biodiversity.' S oilsLittle soil soil is is lost lost from from forests forests o r grassgrassSoilsLittle or lands. When vegetati on is removed, massive massive am ounts lands. When vegetation is removed, amounts of oil can can be be washed washed away lows a cross of s soil away as as rainwater rainwater f flows across the surface. n Tanzania the surface. Measurements Measurements iin Tanzania indicated indicated that to hal f the fall was was l ost as off ffrom rom that up up to half the rain rainfall lost as run runoff bare allow ( 3.5 slope), slope), carrying carrying with ome 70 bare f fallow (3.5' with it it s some 70 t ons of of s oil per ctare.50 Similar cts have tons soil per he hectare!' Similar impa impacts have been been n oted elsewhere!' elsewhere.51 W ith n o shading, oil tempera noted With no shading, s soil temperatures rise dramatically dramatically and and can can greatly greatly reduce reduce the tures rise the vital biological a ctivity in oil.52Loss Loss of vital biological activity in the the s soil. of tree tree co ver also also allows allows higher higher average average wind wind velocities velocities cover ((and and soil soil erosion) erosion) and, and, combined combined with the the reduced reduced s oil moisture moisture content, content, can can lower lower crop crop yields!' yields.53 soil

A View on Tropical Deforestation, Nature, vol. 346, July 19, 1990, p. 214. 43 Tropical R i Forestry Paper No. 30, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome 1982. 44 c a op. Cit., 13Je 4 5 rd a M i r Deforestation Increases at Quicker Rate Outlook, A Aug. ' World W at Quicker Rate Than Than Expected, Expected," MultinationalEnvironmental MultinationalEnvironmental Outlook, u g . 21, 21, 1990, 1990, p. P. 134. 134. o t -e o r l d Deforestation Increases y 2 * 40 R c m Ps r a p. 102-105, H y. Lamprey and Hussein Yussuf, "Pastoralism and y ae u , G. Novikoff, ~ D e s e r t i f i c a t i o n by Overgrazing," AMBIO,v01,12, No. 2, 2,1983, p pp. d r l o s Encroachment Desert Encroachment in vol. 10, Nos. 2-3,1981, pp. 131-134; National Research Council, Desert inNortheraKenya,"AMBIO,vol. 10, Nos. 2-3,1981, pp. 131-134; NationalResearch Council, Environmental Environmental Change in in the the West West u , L p Sahel, D. Anderson, and African Sahel, op. op. cit., cit., footnote footnote 31; 31; D. and R. R. Pishwick, Fuelwood "Fuelwood Co Consumption and and Deforestation Deforestation in in African Countries, Countries," World World Bank, l O a Working . Staff Paper No. 704, 1984; Schlesinger et Staff Working Paper No 704, 1984; Schlesinger et al., al., op. op. cit., cit., footnote footnote 26. 26. o . n C 2-3,1981, pp. 19; 4 9 v c l i World Soil and Food Security, Science, vol. 214, 1981, pp. 995-1002; Grainger, K r l d Population i " Wo Population Growth, Soil Erosion, and Food Security," Science, vol. 214, 1981, pp. 995-1002; A l a i n Grainger, Desertification (London: i y t 1984), p. u s Earthscan, 19841, p. 94. c t , . w VO1. No. h MPhil O'Keefe, "The Causes, Consequences and Remedies of of Soil Erosion Erosion in Kenya," AMBIO,vol.12, No. 6, 6, 1983, 1983, pp. pp. 302-305. 302-305. . " , a t , of and Peter B. Depletion , T f5 1 a " f r Tropical o Rainforests; AMBIO, vol. 12, No. 2, 1983, pp. 67-71, Smil, Deforestation in China, vol. 12, No. 5,, 1983, pp. U . Tropical Rainforests;" vol. 12, No 2 , 1983, pp. 67-71, Vaclav Smil, "Deforestation in China," AMBIO, vol. 12, No 5 1983, pp. 226-231; 226-231; K A o Colonization Lessons from a Tropical Science, vol. 214, 1981, pp. 755-761; Gentry and J. S. Nigel a rJ.H. Smith, "Colonization Lessons f r o m a Tr o p i c a l Forest," Science, vol. 214, 1981, pp. 755-761; A . H . Gentry and J. Lopez-Parodi, V o p Deforestation t and Increased Increased Flooding "Deforestation and Flooding of of the the Upper Upper Amazon," Science, Science, vol. vol. 210, 210, 1980, 1980, p. p. 1354. 1354. C it a t i n and a Tropical o 52 w i e n c o n AMBIO, 10, No. No. 2-3, 2-3, 1981. 1981. 5a n a vol. 10, w o a t g Declining Tree Stocks African Countries, World Development, vol. 14, No. 7, 1986, pp. 853-863. l t a o 5a 3 t lr e t 1 e n D e F 1 e a t T en 1 o 3 s n a r ni 3 r d ls o s , e ,

Chapter 5--Energy and the Environment Environment in in Developing Countries Countries .1121 21 Chapter

Fuel and FodderAs Fodder forests and grasslands rural people disappear, people are increasingly increasingly forced forced to on agricultural residues and for rely o n agri c ultural dung fo r their As cooking and heating needs, and on crop residues for coo king and heating needs, and o n c r o p residues for f o r e s t s fodder. The failure to return organic materianimal fo dder. The f ailure t o return o rgani c materi a n d to the soil can have significant environmental als t o s o il c an signi f i c ant envir o nmental g r a s s impacts, impa cts, even even if if these impacts impacts are are longer longer term and l a n d s more m ore subtle subtle than than is is sometimes sometimes suggested. suggested. People People in many areas areas already already divert divert organic organic residues residues to to other other uses, often often with little apparent apparent near-term near-term effect effect on on yields. For For example, crop crop residues such such as millet or or s orghum stalks stalks tend tend to to be be poor poor fertilizers fertilizers and and are are sorghum di fficult to to recycle; recycle; they they are are often often burned burned in in the the difficult f ields to to prevent prevent them them from from harboring harboring crop crop pests. pests. fields Similarly, dung dung quickly quickly loses loses its its nitrogen nitrogen and and much much of its effectiveness effectiveness as as a a fertilizer fertilizer when when left left lying lying in of its in the sun, as as is is comrnon."In comrnon. In areas with poor poor soils soils the sun, and /or high high rainfalls rainfalls that that quickly quickly leach leach nutrients out, and/or nutrients out, h owever, crop crop yields yields may may drop drop quickly quickly iif residues however, f residues are not are not returned returned to to the the soil. soil.
54

Table 5-4-Sedimentation Table 5-4-Sedimentation Rates Rates of of Some Some Reservoirs in in India India Reservoirs
Lifetime (years) (years) Lifetime Reservoir P l a n n Planned e d R e v i Revised s e d Reservoir Bhakra . . . . . . . . 8 4 7 47 88 Bhakra ..... 8 Maithon . . . . . . . 2 6 246 2 4 24 Maithon . . . . .4 . Hirakund . . . . . . .1. . . . .0 0 100 3 5 35 Hirakund Ram .... 8 Ram Ganga Ganga . . . . . 1 5 185 4 8 48
SOURCE: Kunwar Kunwarl o o s , Loss "Loss of of Productive Productive Soil Soil in in India, India," International SOURCE: Journal of of Environmental Studies, Studies, vol. vol. 24,1985, 24,1985, pp. 245-250. 245-250. Journal

In the longer longer term, term, the the loss loss of of organic organic material can In the material can redu c e the pr o du c tivity of even the highest quality reduce the productivity of even the highest quality s oils. Organic Organic matter matter in in soils soils provides provides important important soils. nutrients needed by plants ; it helps the soil bind bind nutrients needed by plants; i t helps the soil imp ortant minerals-e. minerals-e. g., g., magnesium, magnesium, calcium, calcium, and and important p o tassium that w o uld o therwise be lea c hed away ; potassium-that would otherwise be leached away; it buffers the the acidity acidity of of the the soil; soil; and and i it improves it buffers t improves water retention and and other other physical physical characteristics.' characteristics.55 water retention

Er oded soils soils choke choke downstream downstream waterways waterways and and Eroded reserv oirs, reducing reducing their ability to reservoirs, t o handle the in creased volumes volumes of ctly off increased of water running dire directly off the 56 watersheds. years, the area watersheds.' Over Over the past 10 years, annually flooded i in India has has increased increased by 18 annually flooded n India by 18 per cent. 57 Some observers observers attribute attribute this this increased increased percent. Some fflooding looding to to the the clearing clearing of onal forests. forests. Flood Flood of regi regional and osion damage o the learing of s and er erosion damage due due t to the c clearing of India India's forests billion for fo rests has been estimated at $20 billi on fo r the peri od from from r oughly 1960 1960 t o 1980, 1980, in cluding loss loss of period roughly to including of t opsoil, loss loss of of property property to to floods, floods, and and shortened shortened topsoil, reserv oir lifetimes lifetimes (table (table 5-4). 5-4). 58 Other estimates reservoir pla ce the the direct direct costs costs of of repairing flood damage damage in place repairing flood in 5 59 India on per at more than $250 $250 milli million per year. year.' 'India O tat hm eore r than

e s t i m a t e s ClimateIn C l i m a t e some regions, a significant portion of the rainfall rainfall is is generated generated f rom moisture moisture pumped pumped of the from ba cIk int o the atm o sphere by vegetati o n. Rem oval of back into the atmosphere by vegetation. Removal of n WaferWhen the natural water regulation systhis vegetati o n may then co ntribute t o c limati c Wafer this vegetation may then contribute to climatic s o m 60 tem provided by by forests forests and and grasslands grasslands is is removed, removed, c hange in the regi o n. The sur f a c e re f le c tan c e is tem change in the region. T h e surface reflectance is - provided e flows stream fn lows tend tend to to become become more more erratic, erratic, with c hanged and may likewise affect climate.61 To the changed Whe r e gand may likewise affect c l i m a t e To the redu ed e flows during during dry dry seasons seasons and and worse worse floods floods extent the local local c limate changes changes due due t o the the loss loss reduced flows extent that that the climate to t ch i o n in the wet seas o n. This c an inter f ere with agri c ulture, of vegetati o n, it may be co me m o re di ff i c ult t o in the wet season. This can interfere with agriculture, of vegetation, i t may become more difficult to n a s , the process and restore grasslands and f ishing, and and darns darns and and can can threaten threaten inhabitants. inhabitants. reverse fishing, reverse the process and restore grasslands and t u a r a l s i w g n a i f i t c a e World, Energy, vol. 14, t PP. n 54 r Residues as Fuel in The Third (Lo n d o n: p G5 . 5 O r e p. S t r e s s and World Food Prospects (New NY: Norton& C . 56 o e o E r A of Te c h n olo g y As s e s s m e n t , o p. ci t ., fo o t n o t e g 57 r fk f i U . g problem is given in The State ofIndiasEnvironment 1984-84; The SecondCitizensReport (N e w D e l h i: ue l 5 8 r t p S Center Science anti and Environment). Environment). gb. for I Center y . a for t Science C i i d B a Preserving Watershed Environment.s, No. 137, 1982, 10-14. E 5 o i9 o . a o r c et op. cit., footnote 30; J. and Y. of Land-Surface on the Earths Climate, J o 6 0 n A r n k 215, 1982, pp. 1498-1501. 1498-1501. h 1982, n w S n 215, pp. g m n h S a r Mechanisms Governing the of the Survey ofRecent and Observational Studies, s a 6g 1 o a o pn a e du Sahel, Report Sahel D(84)252, October 1984. See also Sagan et al., op. cit., footnote 30, estimates of R l r du Sahel, Report Sahel D(84)252, October 1984. See also Sagan et al., op cit., footnote 30, estimates otalbedo changes changes are are given given in in Gregory Gregory Morris, Morris, y l e s Biomass Energy Energy Systems: Systems: Building Building Blocks Blocks for Agriculture, Jan. Environmental Impacts of ob "Environmental e Impacts of Bioenergy Development," Biomass for Sustainable Sustainable Agriculture, Jan. 29-Feb. 1, 1, 1985, 1985, d , m a t s s Rockefeller Brothers e rHouse, Airlie House, Airlie, VA, VA, The The Rockefeller Brothers Fund Fund and and World World Resources Resources Institute, Institute,Washington, DC. DC. g a , " r a , t e n L s l
O J S n d o , . f . u e L s " , f K r a d

122 . EEnergy n e r g y in Developing Countries 122

forests something fo rests to to s omething approaching approaching their their original original form form 62 and extent.' and extent. Biodiversity "Plants n tropical Bi odiversity 63 --Plants iin tropical rain forests forests have evolved evolved a a particularly particularly rich rich array of potentially potentially useful use ful chemicals, chemicals, yet yet fewer fewer than 1 1 percent percent of all tropical tr opical plant species species have have so so far far been screened screened for for biochemical a n64 . A number of valuable bi ochemical of of use use to to m man. m medical medi cal products products have have already already been been developed developed from from A ncal u plants, m b e r luding highly effective tropical including tr opi plants, inc effective drugs for for leukemia and hypertension, hypertension, muscle muscle relaxants, relaxants, and and o f 65 and o thers. other aestheti c, scientific, scientific, and and comcomothers.' v a l Many u aother b aesthetic, l e mer cial benefits benefits may may be be realized realized from from tropical tropical forest forest mercial pr oducts. Tropical Tropical deforestation deforestation and and the the loss loss of of products. spe cies would would foreclose foreclose many many of of these these opportuniopportunispecies 66 ties!' ties.

as 90 per percent or more of the species found on as cent o rm ore of species fo und o n earth, yet cover percent of the the t total No one yet cover jjust ust 7 per cent of otal land area. N oo ne knows of spe species tropical kn ows precisely precisely the share share of cies held by tr opical rain fo forests, fewer than 2 milli million rain rests, because because f ewer than on species species have been officially out total number have officially classified classified o ut of a t otal number that is variously estimated t to range f from less than than 5 5 that variously estimated o range rom less to million.'Many are taking t o more more than 50 milli on.69 Many countries countries are steps to biodiversity, few steps to protect protect their bi odiversity, and a f ew are realizing some browrealizing some success. success. Protection Protection of the br owantlered antlered deer in northeast northeast India, fo for r example, is helping make a a comeback comeback f rom near extinction. extinction. 70 helping it make from Th There are concerns concerns iin developing countries, countries, There are n developing h owever, that that the the costs costs of of conserving conserving biodiversity biodiversity however, in jobs and/or and/or access access to to land land and and resources resources fo r the in jobs for the p oor, security security enforcement, enforcement, administration, administration, and and the the poor, mistrust generated as as governments governments deny deny their wn mistrust generated their o own pe ople access access t o much-needed much-needed resources-will resources-will be people to be b orn by by the the developing developing countries, countries, but but the the benefits benefits born will be largely largely captured captured by commercial interests will be by commercial interests in in industrialized countries.' industrialized countries.71 Air A ir Pollution Pollution

A lthough they they have have received received much much less less attention, attention, Although plants in arid arid and and semi-arid semi-arid regions regions similarly similarly offer offer plants in many potential benefits. benefits. These These areas areas harbor harbor a a many potential number of wild wild relatives relatives to to our our basic basic crops-beans, crops-beans, number of p otatoes, wheats, wheats, barleys, barleys, millets, millets, sorghums, sorghums, and and potatoes, many othersand are are sources sources for for genetic genetic resistance resistance many othersand t o drought, drought, heat, heat, pests, pests, and and disease. disease. The The diverse diverse to geneti c resources resources o of varieties can can be be an an genetic f wild wild varieties imp ortant input input into into the the higher higher yielding yielding but but genetigenetiimportant c ally narrow narrow varieties varieties used used in in intensive intensive agriculture. agriculture. cally Many valuable genetic genetic strains strains and and species species may may beat beat Many valuable risk in these these arid and semi-arid semi-arid regions.' regions.67 risk in arid and
Deforestation direct conflict De forestation can can result in a dire ct co nflict between the survival survival of of species species and and the the livelihoods livelihoods between the of people who who exploit exploit the the land. land. Such Such a a conflict conflict of people re cently erupted erupted in in the the United United States States over over the the recently endangered northern spotted spotted owl.6 owl.68 are similar endangered northern 8There There are similar co nflicts iin many developing developing countries. countries. Tropical Tropical conflicts n many rain forests contain contain at at least least half half and and perhaps perhaps as as many many rain forests

The omass generates amounts The burning burning of of bi biomass generates large large amounts of ollution in oping co untries. F ood is of air air p pollution in devel developing countries. Food is typi c ally coo ked o ver an o pen f ire o r a p oo rly vented typically cooked over an open fire or a poorly vented st ove-exposing women women and hildren, as as well stove-exposing and c children, well as as o ther members amily, t o high oxic other members of of the the f family, to high levels levels of of t toxic sm oke (ch. (ch. 3). 3). Similarly, Similarly, in colder climates, climates, homes homes smoke in colder in rural areas are of ten heated by o pen f ires, f urther in rural areas are often heated by open fires, further 72 in c reasing exp o sures t o t o xi c sm o ke. One impa ct increasing exposures to toxic smoke. One impact of this ind oo r air p o lluti o n is exa c erbati o n of o ne of this indoor air pollution is exacerbation of one of of the most deadly deadly classes classes of of in fectious illness, illness, acute acute the most infectious respirat ory infections infections in in children. children. respiratory The use of of biomass biomass for for fuel, fuel, clearing clearing forest forest land The use land fo r agri culture, and and burning grasslands t o generate for agriculture, burning grasslands to generate

Sellers, "AmazonDeforestation Mar. 16, AmazonDeforestation and 621 Shukla, C. C. Nobre, Nobre, P. P. Sellers, and Climate Climate Change Change" Science, Science. vol. vol. 247, 247 Mar. 16, 1990, 1990, pp. pp. 1322-1325. 1322-1325. H. H. Schlesinger Schlesinger et et al., op. cit., cit., footnote 26. al., op. footnote 26. U.S. Congress, of Technology Technology Maintain 63 (Springfield, National Technical F OTA-P-330 (Springfield, VA: VA: National Technical Information Information Service, Service, March March 1987). 1987). or the Response Georgetown International International Environmental &Neil A. Belson, " Tropical Tr o p i c a l Deforestation Deforestation and and the Response of of the the United Unite6States Congress," Georgetown Environmental Law Law Review, Review, a Fall 1989; U.S. Congress, Office of Technology vol. vol. 2, 2, Fall 1989; U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, op. op. cit., cit., footnote footnote 41. 41. c of Technology Assessment, op. cit., 65 o U . t. Scientific American, pp. Kenton R. Miller, Keeping 6 m6 S . Alive: The Scientific Basis for Conserving Options E p Options Alive: The Scientific Basis for Conserving Biodiversity (Washington, DC: DC: World World Resources Resources Institute, Institute, October October 1989). 1989). d lC Gary Nabban, "How Are Tropical Deforestation and and Desertification Affecting Affecting Plant Plant Genetic Genetic Resources, Resources, Annals "Annals ofEarth, ofEarth, vol. vol. 4, 4, No. No. 1, 1, pp. pp. 21-22, 21-22, o w e Seeds of Despair, in Science and Technology, Winter 1989-90, pp. 1986; Paul 1986; Paul Raeburn, "Seeds of Despair," Issues in Science and Technology, Winter 1989-90, pp. 71-76. 71-76. n a t r Economic Impacts g l i b r a r y of of Congress, Congress, Congressional Congressional Research Research Service, "Economic Impacts of of Protecting the the Northern Northern Spotted Spotted Owl, Owl," 90-74 90-74 ENR, Mar. Mar. 5, 5, 1990. 1990.
d e r M. May, How Many Species Are There on Science, Sept. 16, 1988, pp. 1441-1449. O r 69 e . e R A Deer Comes Back From the Brink in India, New York Times, July 31, 1990. 7 6 s W v o b p. 214. St 7 Ri is e r aa r t t R. c Ai A , r n i c m , R. s l e t ti i O m s w M o y f i o . H a R f t n f M a u d i h , t a z

Environment in in Developing Developing Countries Countries 123 123 Chapter 5--Energy and the Environment

fresh f resh forage forage for for livestock livestock all generate generate large amounts amounts of smoke smoke that contributes contributes to to regional regional air pollution. pollution. These activities activities also also pump greenhouse greenhouse gases gases into into the atmosphere, atm osphere, potentially potentially contributing contributing to to global global clicli73 This This is is di discussed in much much m m orre de scussed in o e d emate change. change. 73 tail in the forthcoming forthcoming OTA OTA report, report, Changing By Degrees: Steps To Reduce Greenhouse Gases. Gases.

industry and commerce industry commerce located located further further away. The high concentration of pe people transport high concentration of ople requires the transp ort of foo food, other from long disof d, fuel, fuel, and o ther materials f rom l ong dis tances, of wastes. tan ces, as well as effective effective management management of These changes These changes have have significant significant impacts impacts on on energy energy use and use and on on the the environment. environment. Residential/Commercial Residential /Commercial Sector Sector The transiti transition from to commercial The on f rom biomass biomass t o clean clean co mmercial ffuels uels such such as liquefied liquefied petroleum petroleum gas (LPG) (LPG) and ele electricity ctricity for for residential cooking cooking generally reduces reduces the total amount amount of ollution emitted and the total of air p pollution and largely shifts from the household to shi fts that that which which is is emitted emitted f rom the household t o distant refineries and and electricity electricity generation generation plants plants distant refineries (ch. . In some countries, however, clean com(c h. 3)) .76 mer fuels are are n ot widely r remain remain t oo mercial not widely available available o or too 7 6 cial fuels expensive. China, fo r example, uses ab o ut o ne third expensive. China, for example, uses about one-third In of coal in residences, of of whi ch nearly f is of its in residences, which nearly hal half is used used s its o coal fo r coo king ( app. 3 -A) . Due in part t o heavy for cooking (app. 3-A). D u e i n p a r t to heavy m e residential coal coal use, use, some some northern northern Chinese Chinese cities, cities, c o su ch as as Beijing Beijing and and Tian jin, have have very very high fur such Tianjin, high sul sulfur u n concentrations. dioxide di oxide concentrations.

The Urban The Urban Sector Sector

Environmental Degradation Causes of Environmental
Urban areas areas of of developing developing countries countries are are growing growing rapidly, in in large large part due due to to migrati on from from rural rural migration areas. For For the the low-income low-income countries, countries, urban urban populapopulati on jumped jumped from from 17 17 percent percent of of total total population population in in tion 1965 to 30 percent in in 1987. 1987. In In 1960, 1960, there there were were 59 59 1965 to 30 percent cities with more more than than 500,000 500,000 persons persons in in developing developing co untries; by by 1980 1980 that that number number had had grown grown to to 165 165 countries; c ities. 74 the early early 1990's, 1990s, cities cities iin developing cities. ' IIn n the n developing countries co untries will will need need to to absorb absorb more more than than 100 100 million million 75 additi onal people people annually.' annually. This trend has has imporimporadditional This trend tant implications for for both both energy energy use use and and energyenergytant implications related environmental impacts. impacts. related environmental Urbanizati on and and modernization modernization can can provide provide many many Urbanization desirable benefits-improved standards standards o of living, desirable benefits-improved f living, in creased opportunities opportunities for for education education and and employemployincreased ment, and greater greater insulation insulation from from the the vagaries vagaries of ment, and of dr ought endured endured by by those those in in rural rural areas. areas. (They (They also also drought redu ce pressures pressures on on some some aspects aspects o of the r rural reduce f the ural envir o nment. ) They als o have co sts, in c luding environment.) They also have costs, including p otential damage damage to to the the environment. environment. potential Urbanizati on changes changes the the consumption consumption patterns patterns Urbanization of goods and and energy-related energy-related services services (ch. (ch. 3). 3). HouseHouseof goods holds h olds make make a transition transition from from biomass biomass to to commercial commercial f uels ffo cooking and and other other domestic domestic services. services. fuels or r cooking Demand for consumer consumer goods, goods, notably notably electric electric appliappliDemand for an ces, increases. increases. The The economic economic base base changes changes from from ances, agri culture and and small small rural rural industry industry to to larger larger manumanuagriculture f acturing and and services, services, with with a a corresponding corresponding change change facturing in the demand demand for for commercial commercial energy. energy. The The need need for for in the publi c and and personal personal transport transport grows grows as as employment employment public shi fts from from agriculture agriculture or or rural rural industry industry located located shifts within walking distance distance o of residences tto o large large within walking f residences

t r i refrigerators, air air conditioners, conditioners, and and other other Lights, refrigerators, e Lights, s ele c tri c al applian c es in the residential /co mmer cial electrical appliances i n the residential/commercial , se c t o r pr o vide highly desirable servi c es and are sector provide highly desirable services and are h penetrating urban areas mu c h m o re rapidly than penetrating urban areas much more rapidly than o rural areas (ch. (ch. 3). 3). These These appliances appliances consume consume large rural areas large w am ounts of of electricity, electricity, however, however, the the generation generation of of amounts e whi ch can can cause cause significant significant envir onmental damage damage which environmental v i f not not properly properly controlled. controlled. Refrigerators Refrigerators and and a air if ir e co nditioners also also use use chlorofluorocarbons chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), (CFCs), conditioners r whi c,h have have already already damaged damaged the s pr otective which the earth earth's protective o zone layer layer and and are are potent potent greenhouse greenhouse gases. gases. c ozone l Industrial Sector Industrial Sector e a Industry provides many many goods goods that ntribute t o Industry provides that co contribute to o ur material material comfort comfort and and well-being. well-being. Industry Industry can can n our damage the environment environment through through a variety of damage the a variety of c a c tivities, h o wever, i f they are mismanaged o r activities, however, i f they are mismanaged or o inadequately co ntr o lled. These in c lude : pla c ing inadequately controlled. These include: placing m heavy demands on on natural resources as feedstocks o r heavy demands natural resources as feedstocks or o ther inputs ; intensively intensively using ctricity fo r me other inputs; using ele electricity for mec hanical drive drive and and other other needs; needs; burning burning fo ssil f uels chanical fossil fuels

pp. A. 73 TheFutureRoleof K Houghton, "TheFutureRoleof Tropical Tropical Forests Forestsin Affecting the the Carbon Carbon Dioxide Dioxide Concentration Concentration of of the the Atmosphere, Atmosphere" A1111310,vol. vol. 19, 19, No. No. 4, 4, July July 1990, 1990, pp. 204-209. pp. 1 204-209. 3 World 1989 (New NY: 74 . cit.; percent of 3.95 billion W5 7 D o people-1.6 billion people people and and is is growing growing at 6.9 percent percent annually. Wr people-1.6 billion at 6.9 annually. e l dr refer to carbon dioxide, o 76 t B l d may which be increased by the use of fuels but not by biomass if the biomass is being produced on a sustainable basis. T which may be increased by the use of nonbionaass fuels but not by biomass i f the biomass is being produced on a sustainable basis. w a h i iD n e v ls k e l r e , o e p r

n e r g y in 124 E . Energy in Developing Developing Countries

for fo r process process heat; heat; and and generating generating hazardous hazardous wastes wastes that may be discharged discharged into into landfills, landfills, water systems, or o r the air. Each Each industry has a different different mix of these activities, a ctivities, and and each each activity activity has a different different set of environmental envir onmental impacts, impacts, depending depending on on the use use of environmental mitigaenvir onmental controls controls and and other other means of mitiga tion. ti on.

tions ti ons or or other other advances advances might ease ease these these tradeoffs tradeoffs will be be examined examined in a later rep report of this OT OTA ort of A study. will

Environmental Impacts Environmental

Air A ir Air n many of the developing A ir quality iin developing world's worlds cities deteriorating. The United United c ities is poor, poor, and and has been been deteri orating. The Nations Nati ons Environment Environment Program Program (UNEP) (UNEP) estimates estimates that up t to of the w world's population, that o one-half one-half of orlds urban p opulation, including many industrialized countries, in cluding residents of of many countries, live in areas with marginal o or levels of of live r unacceptable unacceptable levels sulfur sul fur dioxide dioxide (S0 (S02) in the air. Concentrations of SO, total SO see figure figure 5-1) 5-1) and concentrations concentrations of t otal 2 2 ((see suspended (see f igure 5 -2) in jor suspended particulate figure 5-2) i n ma major ) i n t parti h e culate (see c ities in the devel o ping w o rld are co nsiderably cities i n the developing world are considerably a i r . ab W Health Organization guidelines. guidelines. PhotoPhotoabove Organization C ove o World norld c Health e c hemi c al sm o g has be co me a re c urrent seas onal chemical smog has become recurrent seasonal n t r a t i pr oblem in opical and opical problem in many many large large tr tropical and subtr subtropical o n s cities. c ities.

Industrial pollution pollution can can pose pose a particularly particularly severe severe health hazard hazard in developing developing countries countries when when indusindustries are are established established near near existing residential residential areas, areas, or o r when residential areas buildup around around them. This has led led to to tragedies tragedies such such as as Bhopal, Bhopal, as as well as serious serious systemic systemi c pollution pollution such such as as found found in Cubatao, Cubatao, Brazil, Brazil, in the the 1970's 1970s and and early early 1980's.' 1980s.77 O ften, the the lowest lowest Often, in come people people are are most most seriously seriously affected. affected. This This can can income lead to to the the situation situation in in which which the the poor poor face face all all of of their traditional traditi onal risks risks to to health-infectious health-infectious disease, disease, hunhunger and and malnutrition, malnutrition, air air pollution pollution from from biomass biomass f uels-and at at the the same same time time face face even even greater greater than than fuels-and n ormal modem modem risks-such risks-such as as exposure exposure to to hazardhazardnormal o us wastes wastes and and toxic toxic air air pollutants.' pollutants.78 ous

o sources of of these these pollutants pollutants vary. vary. Coal-used Coal-used The sources f The fo r ele ctricity generation, generation, industrial ower and for electricity industrial p power and Transp ortation Sector Sector pr ocess heat, heat, and and domestic domestic heating heating and and cooking cooking Transportation process ((China)--primarily China)--primarily emits emits sulfur sulfur dioxide, dioxide, particuparticuThe transportation sector sector is is the the largest largest co ntributor The transportation contributor late, and nitrogen nitrogen oxides. oxides. The The combustion combustion of il o r late, and of o oil or t o air air pollution pollution in in many many cities. cities. For For example, example, in to in gas stationary sources, sources, such such as ctric generating gas in in stationary as ele electric generating Indian cities, gasoline-fueled gasoline-fueled vehiclesmostly vehiclesmostly two two Indian cities, units, emits many many of of the same pollutants-nitrogen pollutants-nitrogen units, emits the same and three wheelersare wheelersare responsible responsible for for 85 85 percent percent and three o xides, hydrocarbons, hydrocarbons, particulate, particulate, and and sulfur sulfur dioxdioxoxides, of carbon monoxide monoxide a and 35 tto o 65 65 percent percent o of of carbon n d 35 f ide --but in much di fferent pr oportions.81 Nitr ogen 79 ide--but in much different proportions.' Nitrogen hydr ocarbons in in the the air air from from fossil fossil fuels.'Diesel fuels. Diesel hydrocarbons o xide, a a major major ingredient ingredient of smog, is ost oxide, of urban urban smog, is the the m most vehi clesbuses and and trucks-are trucks-are responsible responsible ffo vehiclesbuses or r harm ful p ollutant released released o na large s cale when harmful pollutant on a large scale when o ver 90 90 percent percent of of nitrogen nitrogen oxide oxide (NO) (NOX) emissions emissions over ele ctricity is is generated generated from from o il o r gas. gas. Mobile Mobile electricity oil or in urban urban IndieUse India.80 Use of emission emission control control devices devices and sources--cars, s ources--cars, trucks, trucks, two two and three wheelers, wheelers, and and engine modifications have have significantly significantly reduced reduced engine modifications buses release large am o unts of c arb o n m o n o xide, buses-release large amounts of carbon monoxide, exhaust emissions emissions on on newer newer vehicles vehicles in the United NO=, N O hydrocarbons, and particulate and are typiStates, but these these pollution pollution controls controls are are usually usually not not States, but c ally the the largest largest source source of of these these pollutants pollutants in cally in urban urban , standard on vehicles vehicles in in developing developing countries. countries. Runoff Runoff standard on areas. These m o bile s o ur c es are als o ma j o r co ntribu areas. These mobile sources are also major contribu, f rom roads roads also also contributes contributes to to water water pollution. pollution. from t o rs of lead p o lluti o n due t o the use of lead as an tors of lead pollution due to the use of lead as an h In each each of of these these sectors, sectors, there there are are often often difficult difficult oc tane booster booster in gasoline. Burning Burning fo ssil f uels octane in gasoline. fossil fuels y trade offs between between longer longer term term environmental environmental imimunav oidably generates generates carbon carbon dioxide, dioxide, the the most most tradeoffs unavoidably d acts a cts and immediate financial financial costs costs to to consumers. consumers. imp ortant greenhouse greenhouse gas. gas. These These pollutants pollutants (except (except important r arbon dioxide (C0 )) can damage crops, forests, Many developing countries countries also also have have shortages shortages of of c Many developing carbon dioxide (CO 2 o skilled technical manpower manpower to to implement implement mitigation mitigation and ctures and and can can aggravate aggravate human skilled technical and stru structures human health health 3 c e fforts. The The extent extent to to which which technological technological innovainnovapr o blems. efforts. problems. )) c a n a d a m a g Resources Institute, World Resources 1990-91 (New NY: Oxford University r 77 e W of risk that a r e e xpos 781 b e d t o f r o m t h e t r adi t io n al t o m o d e m. o r o p Risk Environmental Affairs,vol. vol. 2, press. c /1rTransition," International Environmental Risk 2, No. No. 3, 3, in in press. o 1 d th s , (New Energy Research Institute, Data Directory and Yearbook 1988 India: 1989), p. 250. 7 9 R n ea T 8 f o r e e m t s a s 81 Corp., "Health and Environmental Effects of o 81 Mitre Corp., of Oil Oil and and Gas Gas Technologies: Technologies: Needs," report to to the the Federal Federal Interagency Interagency Committee Committee on on s Research t sNeeds, , report E IHealth and Environmental Effects of Energy Technologies, July o 1981. the , the n rHealth and Environmental Effects of Energy Technologies, Jul l 981. b u e a e i r g r c c n e g t e n d y .

Chapter 5--Energy and the Environment Environment in in Developing Developing Countries Countries 125 125 Chapter

Figure 5-1-SuIfur Dioxide Figure 5-1-Sulfur D i o x i d e Levels L e v e l s in i n Selected Cities, 1980-84

Shown is the range of annual values at individual sites and the composite 5-year average for for the city. city.
1 1 I1
Key 1. Milan R a n 1. 2.. Shenyang Shenyang 3.T 3.Tehran ehran a n Concentration (ug/m3) Concentration (ug/m 10 10 3 I I I1 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1I 1I 1 ) of individual site g Range e averages n u annual a l averages
~ 4

WHO WHO Guideline 40-60 ug/m ug/m3 100 / \ 3 100 1 I 1 I 1 I 1 I 1I 1I 1I 1 I

I I

I i
I

4. Seoul Seoul 5. Rio Rio de de Janeiro Janeiro 6. Sao Paulo Xian 7. Xian 8. Paris 9. Beijing 10. Madrid 11. Manila

Combined Combined site site average 1980-84 1980-84 8 .

I
[

I
I

II

. I I 1 3I 3. . I I I I 1 414. 5. [i 1 I I15.

I I E [t 1. I 1 2

. 12.

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I 8.

I 7. 7.
I 10.

I 6.

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12. Guangzhou Guangzhou 13. Glasgow Glasgow 14. Frankfurt Frankfurt 15. Zagreb Zagreb 16. Santiago Santiago 17. Brussels Brussels 18. Calcutta 19. London London 20. New York City 21. Shanghai Shanghai 22.Hong Kong 23. 23. Dubl Dublin 2 2 . 1 1 o n gKong in

11. Ii11.
I 112. 12.

I I

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I 1 I I I

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[ 15.

I I 19. 9. I1 I I 11 [120. 20. I I . ~ 23. I1 2 3 24. . 25. 25. 126. 126. I7

[ 16. I 17: 18.

21. 22. 22. 121.

24. St. Louis 25. Medellin 26. Montreal 27. New Delhi 28. Warsaw Warsaw 29. Athens Athens 30. Wroclaw Wroclaw 31. Tokyo Tokyo 32. Caracas Caracas 33. Osaka Osaka 34. Hamilton 35. Amsterdam Amsterdam 36. Copenhagen Copenhagen 37. Bombay Bombay 38. Christchurch Christchurch 39. Sydney Sydney 40. Lisbon Lisbon 41. Helsinki 42. Munich 43. Kuala Lumpur 44. Houston Houston 45. Chicago Chicago 46. Bangkok 46. Bangkok 47. Toronto Toronto 48. Vancouver Vancouver 49. Bucharest Bucharest 50. Tel Aviv Aviv 51. Cali Cali 52. Auckland Auckland 53. Melbourne 54. Craiova Craiova

I
I1

2I
I

,
]28. 128. ]29. i29.

127,

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\\

30. 30.

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[1 33. ]134 3 I 3 5 . 1 35. 3 3 36. . I1 1 I 3 6 4. ]1 37. 37 I . . 1 1 3 6 ] 36. I139. 39. I II 1 4 0 . I 1 I I1 ~- 42. 4 1 43. 43. [1 II I I

3 2 , 132.

3 1 . 31.

I I

47. ] 48. ] 49.

150. 150.

II
I I I I I154. 54. I

51. I I 51.

52. 52.

J53. 53. J

a Note logarithmic scale. scale. a Note SOURCE: Organization and and United United Nations Nations Environment figure SOURCE: World Health Health Organization Environment Programme, Programme, G/o&/ Glo8dPollution a n d Health (London: Yale Yale University University Press, Press, 1987), 1987),figure 2, p. 5. 5. (Logarithmic (Logarithmic scale.) scale.) 2, P.

126 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries

Figure 5-2-Suspended Particulate Matter Levels in Selected Cities, 1980-84 Figure

Shown is the range of annual values at individual sites and the composite 5-year 5-year average average for for the the city. city.

10 10 I
Key 1. Kuwait Kuwait 2. Shenyang Shenyang 3. Xian Xian 4. New Delhi 5. Beijing Beijing 6. Calcutta 7. Tehran Tehran 8. Jakarta Jakarta 9. Shanghai Shanghai 10. Guangzhou Guangzhou 11. Wigan Illigan City 12. Bangkok Bangkok 13. Bombay Bombay 14. Kuala Kuala Lumpur Lumpur 15. Zagreb Zagreb 16. Rio de Janeiro 17. Bucharest Bucharest 18. Accra Accra 19. Lisbon 20. Manila 21. Chicago Chicago 22. Caracas Caracas 23. Birmingham Birmingham 24. Helsinki 25. Hamilton 26. Sydney Sydney 27. Houston Houston 28. Craiova Craiova 29. Toronto Toronto 30. Melbourne 31. Medellin 32. Chattanooga Chattanooga 33. Fairfield 34. Montreal 35. Vancouver Vancouver 36. New York City 37. Tokyo Tokyo 38. Osaka Osaka 39. Cali Cali 40. Copenhagen Copenhagen 41. Frankfurt

I1

3 WHO WHO Guideline 60-90 ug/m ug/m' ~ 1 10000 I I I I I I I II I I II I II I

1,000 1,000
I
I

1 I
IJ

I 1I 1I 1 I

Range Range of of individual site annual averages annual averages I1 I

I

J 1. 1.

1 1

Combined site Combined average 1980.84 average 1980.84

[
[

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11
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II II

7. 7. 16. . I 16 I I 1 9 I. 9. I I 1 0 .10. I 11. I

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2 . 2. I ? 3. 4. I3 I 5. 5 6. I1 I I 1 16.

I I I I 15. 16. 17. .,* 16. /

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I 25. 25. I 26. 26. 7. II I I 1 2 127. 26. 26.

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3 39. 39. 0 . II 1 I 1 4 140. 41 1 1 1 41. '

II II 1 37. 37 8 . 38.

a scale. a Note Note logarithmic scale. SOURCE: and United United Nations Nations Environment Yale University SOURCE: World Health Health Organization Organization and Environment Programme, Programme, Global Pollution and Health (London:Yale University Press, Press, 1987), 1987), figure figure scale.) 3, p. 6. 6. (Logatithmic scale.) 3, p.

E fforts to to reduce reduce emissions emissions from from coal coal burning burning Efforts usually inv o lve rem o ving harm f ul material from usually involve removing harmful material from exhaust gases a f ter co mbusti o n. P o lluti o n co ntr ols, exhaust gases after combustion. Pollution controls, su c h as ele c tr o stati c pre c ipitat o rs o r bagh o uses to such as electrostatic precipitators or baghouses to co ntr o l parti c ulate, c apture p o llutants f r o m exhaust control particulate, capture pollutants from exhaust gases, but they they create create solid solid wastes wastes in in the the process. process. gases, but Flue gas desulfurization desulfurization (FGD) (FGD) equipment equipment ("scrub(scrubFlue gas
82 Mic en of Te c h n olo g y Assessment, May 1990, 1990, p. 25. 1 Mice of Technology p. 25. te rn at io na 1

bers ) controls controls sulfur sulfur emissions emissions by apturing the bers") by c capturing the sul fur in rm of sludges. Ele ctrostatic sulfur in the the fo form of liquid liquid sludges. Electrostatic pre cipitators are are widely used in oping precipitators widely used i n the the devel developing 82 w o rld, but FGD systems are n o t co mm o n. This world, but FGD systems are not common. T his may be due in part t o the high co sts of su c h systems. may be due in part to the high costs of such systems. One und that on of One study study in in India India fo found that the the additi addition of an an FGD FGD system ould add out 15 percent t o the st of system w would add ab about 15 percent to the co cost of

Clean Coal Te c h n ologie s fo r D e v elopin g Co u n t r ie s, co n t r ac t o r r e po r t p r e pa r e d fo r t h e

Environment in in Developing Developing Countries Countries 127 127 Chapter 5--Energy and the Environment

electricity ele ctricity .83 .83 Perhaps Perhaps as as significant significant is that Indian and Chinese coals coals have have relatively relatively low low sulfur sulfur contents contents typically typi cally 0.5 0.5 to to 2.0 2.0 percent percent compared compared to to 3 to to 6 percent per cent for for Eastern European European and some some U.S. Coals.' Coals.84 Adoption f more A doption o of more effective effective pollution pollution control control technologies te chnologies already already common common in the the industrialized industrialized world n energy w orld and and improvements improvements iin energy efficiencies efficiencies n many might significantly significantly improve improve air quality iin cities c ities of of the developing developing world. world. Water W ater

might be applied of industrial might applied include include treatment of effluents e ffluents and and reduction reduction of the generation generation of hazardhazardous through improvements o us materials themselves thr ough impr ovements in manufacturing manu facturing processes." processes.88 Land Land The ma major of s soil pollution in urban areas areas The jor causes causes of oil p ollution in are the disposal of s solid of are disposal of olid wastes wastes and the deposition deposition of air p pollutants and particulate. air ollutants such such as SO, S02 and particulate. The focus solid countries foc us here here is is on on s olid wastes. wastes. Low-income Low-income co untries generate much less less urban urban refuse refuse (around (around 0.5 kg kg per generate much per c apita per day ) than industrial co untries ( 0.7 t o 1.8 capita day) countries (0.7 to 1.8 kg per per capita capita per per day ).89 In large large cities, cities, however, however, day).'In even odest per -capita levels c an lead t o large even m modest per-capita can to am ounts of of waste waste generation. generation. Mexico Mexico City City is is estiestiamounts mated to generate generate 11,000 11,000 tons tons a day. Most Most of mated to a day. of this this waste originates from from households, households, largely largely in waste originates i n the the fo rm of of vegetable vegetable and and putres cible materials. There is form putrescible materials. There is als o a a significant significant component component of of hazardous hazardous wastes wastes also (co ntaining chemicals, chemicals, heavy heavy metals, metals, and/or and/or radi o(containing radioactive a ctive wastes) wastes) from from industries.

The primary primary urban urban water water pollution pollution problem problem is is the the dis charge of of untreated untreated or or minimally minimally treated treated human human discharge waste into water water systems systems (this (this is is also also a a significant significant waste into pr oblem in in rural rural areas). areas). As As of of the the mid-I980's, mid-1980s, only only problem ab out half half the the developing developing world's worlds urban urban population population about had adequate sewage sewage facilities, facilities, and and perhaps perhaps threethreehad adequate fo urths h had access tto o sakainking safe drinking water. This This fourths a d access water. situati on contributes contributes to to the the growth growth and and spread spread of of situation path ogenic viruses, viruses, bacteria, bacteria, and and protozoa protozoa and and is is pathogenic dire ctly or or indirectly indirectly responsible responsible for for perhaps perhaps threethreedirectly fo urths of of all illness and and 80 80 percent percent of of all child fourths all illness all child 85 deaths." deaths. Industrial wastes also also contribute contribute significantly significantly to to Industrial wastes water pollution in in some some areas. areas. These These range range from from water pollution agri cultural industry industry wastes wastes to to heavy heavy metals metals (mer(meragricultural c ury, cadmium, cadmium, lead, lead, and and chromium) chromium) and and chlorinchlorincury, ated hydrocarbons-to name nly a ew. These These ated hydrocarbons-to name o only af few. p ollutants can can have have serious serious impacts impacts on on water water rerepollutants s ources all all the the way way downstream downstream to to the the ocean. ocean. Many Many sources co astal areas areas are are also also being being affected.' affected. 86 A recent coastal A recent study found that that World World Health Health Organization Organization (WHO) (WHO) study found standards for heavy heavy metals-cadmium, metals-cadmium, lead, lead, and and standards for mer cury-were exceeded exceeded in ne-third t o three mercury-were in o one-third to threefo urths of of the the fish fish and and shellfish shell f ish samples taken f r o m fourths samples taken from 87 Mitigation strategies strategies that that Jakarta Bay, Indonesia.' Indonesia. mitigation Jakarta Bay,
83

In the developing developing countries, countries, current current procedures procedures In the fo r disposing disposing of ch wastes wastes are are inadequate. inadequate. Much Much for of su such h ousehold garbage garbage is ot co llected at ft t o household is n not collected at all, all, but but le left to de compose. Hazardous Hazardous wastes wastes may may be be dumped dumped on on decompose. un controlled municipal municipal landfills. landfills. Only Only a uncontrolled a small small part part of otal wastes wastes are are disposed disposed of onmentally of t total of in in an an envir environmentally sa fe reamer. reamer. Nonetheless, Nonetheless, costs costs of safe of even even inadequate inadequate disp osal c an amount amount t o as as much much as 30 percent percent of disposal can to as 30 of muni cipal budgets!' budgets.90 municipal Energy could, however, however, play play a solving Energy could, a part part in in solving these problems. Urban Urban waste waste can can be be used used as as feedfeedthese problems. st ock fo r co generation plants. Process changes changes in stock for cogeneration plants. Process in energy -intensive industries industries such such as as steel, steel, cement, cement, energy-intensive and fertilizer may may well, well, by by economizing economizing o n the use and fertilizer on the use of materials, also also reduce reduce hazardous hazardous wastes. wastes. of all materials,

1bid., p. "ibid., p. 25. 25. "Ibid., pp. pp. 7, 7, 8, 8, 27. 27.

World Resources 1990-91 (New NY: Oxford University Press, 1990); World Resources Development 85 and Pollution in the Third Third World," Tokyo Conference on antiW Pollution in the Tokyo Conference on the the Global Global Environment and and Human Human Response, Response, Sept. Sept. 11-14, 11-14, 1989; 1989; World World Health Health Organization Organization The International United Nations, 1986); World Health Organization and United Nations r TheoInternational Drinking Water Supply Supply and Sanitation Sanitation Decade (Geneva: ( and (New University Press, Environment d e v a r Programme, G el n U n i t e d Pollution N a and t i Health o n (New s ,Haven, CT: Environment Global Pollution Health CT: Yale Yale University Press, 1987). 1987). 1 R 9 8 6 Environment ) ; The State of the Marine Environment, 1990. 86 W e o r l d U " Wo r l d Resources Institute, Development "Development and and Pollution Pollution in the the Third World," op. cit., footnote 85. H s a l t h ni e of and 88 U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Serious Reduction of Hazardous Waste For Pollution Prevention and Industrial Efficiency, O o r g a n i z a t i o n te DC: U.S. Government Printing September 1986). U.S. Congress, of Technology OTA-ITE-317 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing0ffice, September 1986). U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, From Pollution a u n d d to Prevention: A Progress Progress on Waste Reduction, r to Reduction, OTA-1TE-347 (Washington, DC: DC: U.S. U.S. Government Government Printing Printing Office, Office, June June 1987). 1987). U Prevention: n A i Report on t Waste e N in Development c d 8 a9 e N a t i o n Pollution in the Third prepared by The World Resources Institute for the Conference on the Global Environment and t Pollution in the Third World," prepared by The World Resources Institute for the Tokyo Conference on the Global Environment and Human Human Response, Response, S s s DC: World Resources Institute, July 1989). Sept. 1989 i 11-14, Sept. 11-14, 1989 (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, July 1989). a I o0 Resources Institute, World Resources 1988-89 (New NY: Basic Books, Inc., 1988), p. 46. 9 n n n W s d r sr o t E a

128 128 Energy in Developing Countries

Energy Production and Conversion

Energy plays plays a critical critical role role in fueling fueling the transitransition ti on from from a traditional traditional to to a modern modern society society and thus n turn, aiding economic economic and social social development. development. I In this energy energy is is extracted extracted from from rural areas-either areas-either as fossil fo ssil fuels fuels o or renewable renewable energy-and energy-and can can have have significant impacts rural e economy signi ficant impa cts on on the rural conomy and environment. envir onment. Energy Energy thus provides provides an important important two-way tw o-way linkage linkage between between rural and and urban areas. areas. Used wisely, wisely, energy energy can can provide provide environmental environmental benefits; t can bene fits; iif misused iit can also also exact exact substantial environmental envir onmental costs costs to to the the land, water, water, and and air. The The many social, social, economic, economic, and and environmental environmental benefits benefits have been been reviewed reviewed in in the the preceding preceding chapters; chapters; the the envir onmental costs costs of of extracting extracting and and transporting transporting environmental the major major energy energy resources resources used used iin developing n developing co untries today--coal, today--coal, oil, oil, gas, gas, hydroelectricity, hydroelectricity, and and countries bi omass-are briefly briefly reviewed reviewed below. below. biomass-are

Oil and and Gas Gas Oil

Oil and gas pr production environOil oduction have similar envir onmental impacts. mental impacts. During exploration exploration and production, production, the major the major environmental environmental concerns concerns onshore onshore include include land disturbances, land disturbances, aquifer aquifer contamination, contamination, leaks leaks and spills, and disposal spills, disposal of of liquid and solid solid wastes. For For offshore off shore operations, operations, concerns concerns include include the impacts impacts of of operations o perations on on fisheries fisheries and marine habitats, leaks and spills, and spills, and and waste waste disposal. disposal. Large spills of o oil Large il or or petroleum petroleum products, products, which which occasionally or occ asionally occur occur during production, production, storage, storage, o r transportation, transp ortation, are perhaps the most most dramatic dramatic envienvironmental oil r onmental threat associated associated with o il production. production. Small leaks and and spills spills are are much much more more common, common, Small leaks h owever, and and may may have have a greater greater o verall impa ct o n however, overall impact on the environment. Oil Oil spills can can p oison f ish and the environment. poison fish aquati c animal animal and plant li fe. Additionally, Additionally, sedi aquatic life. sediments can trap il, c reating a ong-term s ource of ments can trap o oil, creating al long-term source of p ollution. The The well-publicized well-publicized Alaskan Alaskan o il spill pollution. oil spill of of 1989 revealed the fficulties inherent leaning up 1989 revealed the di difficulties inherent in in c cleaning up large oil spills spills iin difficult ocean ocean environments.' environments.93 large oil n difficult Devel oping countries countries have have had had their il Developing their share share of of o oil spills too. The The June June 1979 1979 blowout blowout of IXTOC 1 1 spills too. of the the IXTOC pr oduction well well in the Mexican Mexican Caribbean Caribbean was was the production in the the 94 largest il spill spill t o date. It released largest o oil to date.'It released an an estimated estimated 139 139 t o 428 428 million million gallons gallons of rude o il int o surr ounding to of c crude oil into surrounding waters, as mu ch as as 40 the am ount spilled waters, as much 40 times times the amount spilled by by the Exxon Valdez. Valdez. Natural Natural gas gas leaks leaks pose pose little oxic the Exxon little t toxic an expl ode o rc ause threat o plants and animals threat t to plants and animals but but c can explode or cause f ires. The The primary nstituent of fires. primary co constituent of natural natural gas gas methane --is also also a a potent potent greenhouse greenhouse gas. gas. methane--is

Coal
C oal has has significant significant environmental environmental effects effects throughthroughCoal o ut the the fuel fuel cycle.' cycle.91 The environmental effects effects o of out The environmental f co al mining mining depend depend on on the the techniques techniques used. used. Mining Mining coal meth ods are are selected selected according according to to the the depth depth of of the the methods co al, the the thickness thickness of of the the seams, seams, and and the the availability availability coal, of capital and and equipment. equipment. In In surface surface mining, mining, topsoil topsoil of capital and overburden are are removed removed to to expose expose the the coal. coal. The The and overburden mining process can can disturb disturb surface surface lands lands and and waters, waters, mining process and may also also contaminate contaminate or or disturb disturb underground underground and may aqui fers. Increased Increased erosion, erosion, downstream downstream siltation, siltation, aquifers. and water contamination contamination can can follow follow if excavated excavated material is not not properly properly managed managed during during mining. mining. material is S oil productivity productivity and and water water resources resources can can be be dedeSoil graded f lands lands are are not not reclaimed reclaimed adequately. adequately. The The graded iif m ost severe severe impacts impacts associated associated with with underground underground most mining are surface surface subsidence subsidence over over mined-out mined-out areas, areas, mining are disrupti on of of aquifers, aquifers, and and contamination contamination of of water water disruption by acid drainage. drainage. Additionally, Additionally, dust dust and and emissions emissions by acid f rom coal coal mining, mining, preparation, preparation, and and transport transport or or from related equipment can can contribute contribute to to local local air air pollupollurelated equipment tion.' ti on. 92
April 1979), p. p. 186. 186. u .1979), April
91

Petr oleum re fining generates generates hazardous hazardous liquid Petroleum refining liquid and s solid emissions. and olid wastes, as well as air emissi ons. These These ffacilities acilities have have pollution pollution control control requirements requirements similar similar t o many many other other large large industrial industrial and and chemical chemical plants, plants, to but leaks of of t oxic compounds compounds occur occur nevertheless. nevertheless. but leaks toxic

Hydroelectricity The jor environmental environmental impacts impacts of of large large hydrohydroThe ma major p ower production production projects projects result result f rom the power from the initial initial co nstruction of hydropower f acilities, f illing the construction of the the hydropower facilities, filling the reserv oirs, and and changing changing river lows. This This is reservoirs, river f flows. is in in
of

S . 92 C Ib a discussion of the technologies spill cleanup, see U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Coping With An 9 3 id o Analysis of Response Technologies, Technologies, OTA-BP-0-63 OTA-BP-O-63 (Washington, DC: Sea: Sea: of Oil Spill Response DC: U.S. U.S. Government Government Printing Printing Office, Office, March March 1990). 1990). FA n Analysis . n of spills listed in the OTA background paper or near developing o r 9 4 g a Ib r t id e h . s s M s

Environment in in Developing Developing Countries Countries 129 129 Chapter 5--Energy and the Environment

contrast for co ntrast with other other energy energy sources, sources, fo r which which major major impacts impa cts are are spread spread over over the entire entire fuel fuel cycle. cycle. Large dam dam construction construction often often requires the clearclearing of of lands for for access access routes routes and sometimes sometimes for for removal rem oval of of construction construction material, material, with with resulting soil soil degradation degradati on and and erosion. erosion. Filling Filling the the reservoir reservoir can can flood f lood large tracts tracts of land, uprooting uprooting people people and f forests, leading to to loss loss o of forests, wildlife wildlife habitat, habitat, and and species spe cies diversity. diversity. For For example example the the Akosombo Akosombo reserreservoir v oir on on the Volta Volta in Ghana, Ghana, with a land requirement requirement of 8,730 8,730 km', km2, approaches approaches the the size size of of su ch small such 95 co untries as as Lebanon Lebanon or or Cyprus. ome currently currently countries Cyprus.' S Some pr oposed very very large large dam dam projects projects would would inundate inundate proposed highly populated populated valleys valleys and and require require large-scale large-scale resettlement of resettlement of local local residents. residents.

Hydropower to Hydr opower facilities, facilities, in turn, are vulnerable vulnerable t o environmental envir onmental degradation. degradation. Heavier Heavier than expected expected siltation desiltati on of of reservoirs reservoirs from from deforested deforested and/or and/or de graded lands upstream c can reduce lifespan of graded an redu ce the li fespan of hydroelectric hydr oelectric projects projects (see (see table 5-4).'The 5-4).97 The Hirakud reservoir to reserv oir in India, for for example, was expected expected t o be be productive for about now pr oductive fo r ab out 110 years, but n ow has an estimated productive lifetime of 35 years." In C Costa estimated productive li fetime of years.98 In osta Rica, from soil from Ri ca, excess excess sedimentation sedimentation f rom s oil eroded eroded f rom steep slopes past steep slopes planted with coffee coffee trees over over the past 20 years has caused of $133 $133 milli million 20 caused estimated losses losses of on t o $274 $274 milli on at the Cachi Cachi hydroelectric hydroelectric station." station.99 to million

The Three Gorges Gorges Darn Dam project project under under consideraconsideraThe Three ti on for for the the Yangtze Yangtze river river in China would would be be the the tion in China w orlds largest largest hydroelectric hydroelectric project, project, generating generating the the world's equivalent of approximately approximately one-fifth one-fifth the the hydroelechydroelecequivalent of tri city currently currently produced produced in all of of China each year, year, tricity in all China each as well as as providing providing flood flood control. control. Debate Debate over over this this as well pr oject has has continued continued for for six six decades decades because because iit project t w ould entail entail the the resettlement resettlement of of appr oximately 1 would approximately I milli on people; people; because because it ould deface deface o ne of million it w would one of China's China s most most famous famous natural natural sites, sites, and and because because c ritics believe believe that that power power could could be be provided provided more more critics c heaply with smaller thermal and hydr o ele ctric cheaply w i t h smaller thermal and hydroelectric 96 plants o r thr o ugh co nservati o n. plants or through conservation." Dams disrupt the the natural natural flow flow of of rivers. rivers. Changed Changed Dams disrupt f lows can can erode erode riverbeds, riverbeds, alter alter flood flood patterns, patterns, harm harm flows aquati c ecosystems, ecosystems, and and interrupt interrupt the the spawning spawning and and aquatic migrat ory patterns patterns of of f ish and and other other species. species. The The migratory fish introduction intr oduction of a new lake can can affect affect water tables and gr oundwater flows flows and and interfere interfere with with the the necessary necessary groundwater f low of of nutrients, nutrients, and and may may induce induce microclimatic microclimatic flow c hanges in in humidity, humidity, cloud cloud cover, cover, and and rain fall. In changes rainfall. In additi on, iif f the the vegetation vegetation is is not not cleared cleared f rom the addition, from the reserv oir area area before before flooding, flooding, rotting rotting organic organic matter matter reservoir releases significant amounts amounts of of CO, C02 and methane, releases significant and methane, tw o potent potent greenhouse greenhouse gases. gases. two

Dams and the the irrigation irrigation schemes schemes dependent dependent on on Dams and these clams to these dams have have also also contributed contributed t o increased increased in cidence of of debilitating debilitating diseases, diseases, such such as as schisschisincidence l00 t ossomia omiasis. hydroelectric systems systems a and to sis. 00Smaller Smaller hydroelectric nd better management may better management may minimize minimize some of the the above some of above adverse consequences. adverse consequences.

Biomass Biomass
Biomass which critical to Bi omass fuels, fuels, whi ch are c ritical t o the rural and p oor urban urban sectors sectors of developing countries countries (chs. (chs. 2, 2, poor of developing 3, and 4), 4), can can have have a onmental 3, and a variety variety of of envir environmental impa cts. These These are discussed above above and closely impacts. are discussed and are are closely intertwined with deforestation, intertwined deforestation, desertification, desertification, and rural ort f rom this rural air air quality. quality. A A later later rep report from this study study will will examine the environmental biomass examine environmental effects effects of of bi omass use use in detail, particularly in the context context of oducing clean clean detail, particularly in the of pr producing bi omass fuels fuels (e.g., (e.g., ethanol) ethanol) and and using of uel biomass using them them t to fuel m odern equipment. equipment. modern

Nuclear Energy
Nu clear energy energy c urrently makes makes little ntribution Nuclear currently little co contribution t o the the overall overall energy energy requirements requirements of oping to of devel developing co untries. Seven Seven developing developing countries countries produce produce ura countries. uranium : South South Africa, Africa, Niger, Niger, Gabon, Gabon, India, India, Argentina, Argentina, nium: Brazil, and Pakistan.' Pakistan.lO1 Eight developing countries countries Brazil, and Eight developing had operating commercial commercial reactors reactors as as of had operating of late late 1989 and several more commercial under and more had co mmercial reactors reactors under

(cd.), Man-made Lakes and Human Health bo: University of S 1979). 95 R6 . wealth and Woe: The Far Eastern Review, vol. 147, Mar. 15, 1990, pp. 22-23; 9 S China, Dams She@ She@ " I n China, Dam's Delay Delay Spares Spares a a Valley Valley for for Now, Now," New York York Times, Times, Apr. A p r. 18, 18, 1989, 1989, p. p. Cl. R . WuDurm, In P o7 b of Technology Assessment, op. Cit., footnote p. 43. 9 a er U . p. 43. 9 n8 t S I b. d Forest Crisis Nears, The Tiw Times, vol. 34, Feb. 16, 1990. 9 D9 C iad D and Agricultural op. cit., 7, p. 69. e 1 0 0 o ., yv a l U n i n p Energy Statistics Yearbook, 1986 (New t o l u (d i l . ted g n c D 4 s N r i t d 3 u , a t e e . . d " i o s

130 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries

construction t a l of 28 developing co nstruction (ch. (ch. 4). 4). A At to otal developing countries late 1988.' co untries had had research research reactors reactors as as of of late 1988.102

The conventional conventional nuclear nuclear fuel fuel cycle cycle includes includes uranium mining mining and processing, processing, fuel fuel fabrication, fabrication, electricity ele ctricity generation, generation, and radioactive radioactive waste disdisposal. p osal. Each Each of these steps has the potential potential to to release varying amounts amounts of of toxic toxic and/or and/or radioactive radioactive materimaterials to to the the environment. environment. Releases Releases usually usually take take the form fo rm of small leakages leakages but have, have, on on rare occasion, occasion, also als o resulted resulted in catastrophes catastrophes such such as as Chernobyl. Chernobyl. On the other other hand, hand, the the nuclear nuclear power power option option releases releases little carbon carbon dioxide dioxide or or other other greenhouse greenhouse gases gases to to the the atm osphere, nor nor does does iit emit much much sulfur sulfur dioxide, dioxide, atmosphere, t emit nitr ogen oxides, oxides, o or other other a air pollutants. 103 These nitrogen i r pollutants.' trade offs pose pose difficult difficult environmental environmental choices. choices. tradeoffs

land overlying land overlying wells from from which which geothermal geothermal fluids fluids have been extracted, generation of high highhave extracted, and the generati on of temperature liquid effluents temperature effluents containing containing metals and dissolved diss olved solids. solids. With With existing economically economically proven proven technologies te chnologies and and good good management, management, however, however, these these potentially p otentially adverse impacts impacts can can be kept under control. co ntrol.

Greenhouse Gases Global and Global Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change
The environmental impacts impacts described described above above are are The environmental largely limited t o the individual co untries conconlargely limited to countries c erned. Some Some activities-notably, activities-notably, the the combustion combustion of of cerned. fossil a wider wider fo ssil fuels fuels and and deforestation-can deforestation-can have have a impa ct, including including impa cts o n the global c limate. A n impact, impacts on the global climate. An internati onal panel cientific experts international panel of of s scientific experts of of the the In Interg overnmental Panel Panel on on Climate Climate Change Change (IPCC) (IPCC) 104 tergovernmental re cently concluded concluded that: that: "emissions emissions resulting resulting from from recently 1u4 human ctivities are creasing the human a activities are substantially substantially in increasing the atm ospheric concentrations concentrations of of the greenhouse gases: gases: atmospheric the greenhouse c arbon dioxide, dioxide, methane, methane, chlorofluorocarbons chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) (CFCs) carbon and nitrous the and nitrous oxide. oxide. These These increases increases will enhance enhance the natural greenhouse effect, effect, resulting, on average, average, in natural greenhouse resulting, on in an additional w warming s sur face. 105 an additional arming of of the the Earth Earth's surface. Under Usual" scenario, Under Business as Usual s cenario, 1 0 5 the IPCC "Business emissi ons of arbon dioxide dioxide are ojected t o gr ow emissions of c carbon are pr projected to grow ffrom rom approximately approximately 7 7 billion billion metric metric tonnes tonnes of arof c carbon i n 1985 t i l l i on metri metric tomes in b on in to 11-15 11-15 b billi ct omes in 106 2025. 2025. Methane emissions are projected to increase from million metric 1985 t to 500 c rease f rom 300 300 milli on metri c tonnes tonnes in 1985 o 500 1 milli o n metri c t o nnes by 2025. Based o n c urrent million metric tonnes by 2025. Based on current ' m and with these trends trends in greenhouse gas gas models with these in greenhouse 6 odels and emissi o ns co ntinuing, s c ientists predi c t that gl o bal emissions continuing, scientists predict that global M e mean crease at out 0.3 mean temperature temperature will will in increase at a a rate rate of of ab about 0.3 t h 'C per decade decade during the next next c entury, a C per during the century, a rate rate higher higher a n that seen over the past 10,000 years.l07 than than that seen over the past 10,000 years.'

Solar, Wind, and Other Renewable Energy

S olar energy energy can can be be used used to to heat heat water water or or dry Solar dry c rops, or or can can be be turned turned directly directly into into electricity electricity by by crops, ph otovoltaic cells. cells. Winds Winds can can be be harnessed harnessed for for photovoltaic pumping water or or generating generating electricity. electricity. Though Though pumping water h olding great great promise promise for for the the provision provision of of decentraldecentralholding ized forms of of energy energy for for remote remote areas, areas, as as yet yet these these ized forms s ources provide provide only only small small amounts amounts of of energy r sources energy fo for devel o ping co untries. developing countries. Ge othermal energy, energy, though though still still a a very very small small part part Geothermal of total energy energy supply supply in in developing developing countries, countries, is is of total being used in in several several Latin Latin American American and and Asian Asian being used devel oping countries countries and and in in Kenya. Kenya. The The environenvirondeveloping mental problems associated associated with with geothermal geothermal energy energy mental problems pr oduction are are highly highly dependent dependent on on the the geochemical geochemical production c haracteristics of of each each specific specific site site and and the the extent extent to to characteristics whi ch good good environmental environmental practice practice is is followed. followed. which P otential adverse adverse environmental environmental impacts impacts include include the the Potential release of gases gases (particularly (particularly CO CO2), contamination of release of l ocal aquifers aquifers b by saline (and (and sometimes sometimes toxic) toxic) local y saline 2 ge othermal f luids int gr subsidence of of geothermal subsidence ), c o n t fluids a m i into n o a groundwater, t o i undwater, o n
o f

e eOxford University Press, 1990). Resources Institute, 1990-1991 (New York, NY: c a p a ci t i e s 102 indicators by themselves, themselves, as capacity factors factors for for nuclear, nuclear, thermal, hydroelectric factors W o by m plants indicators as capacity thermal, and and hydroelectric plants vary vary considerably. considerably. Installed Installed capacities capacities and anti capacity capacity factors can be Energy Statistics for 100 Developing Countries, Industry and l dfound can rbe found in in World World Bank, Summary "Summary Data Data Sheets Sheets of of 1987 1987 Power Power and and Commercial Commercial Energy Statistics for 100 Developing Countries," Industry and i s Energy Department Working Working Paper Paper Energy Energy Series Series No. 23, March March 1990. 1990. R Department Energy No. 23, s operations i e s dioxide may be released g, or other by fossil-fueled and some maybe in I o u fabricating the construction fabricating the construction materials-particularly materials-particularly cement. cement. o 0 r c by Meteorological Organization the 304 1 n force e s United Nations Environment Program. Initiated in 1987, this body focuses on S h Nations current information available on climate change issues and T United Environment Program. Initiated in 1987, this body focuses on analyzing current information available on climate change issues and I s devising strategies to address address climate climate change. o e devising strategies to change. n m I a Panel on Climate Change, Policymakers of the ScientificAssessment of Climate Change: Report to From s 1n 05 e e Group I, June 1990, p. i. t Working t n t Group I," June 1990, p. Working I r cg r imIntergovernmental on Climate Change, Change, W Working Group (Response Strategies Working Group), "Policyrnakers' Summary of e rg Panel on orking G r o u p I n (Response of the a e o ve t v o Formulation of Response Strategies: Report Prepared for WCC, June 1990, p. Formulation of Response Strategies: Report Prepared for WCC," June 1990, p. iii. r e r u rn p I, op. cit., footnote p. ii. b 107 n t e m r o IPC m eta n n C e o , n l
d W t W Pa

Environment in Developing 31 Chapter 5--Energy and the Environment Developing Countries .1131

More M ore than half half of the warming has has been been attributed attributed to t o carbon carbon dioxide. dioxide. Atmospheric Atmospheric concentrations concentrations of carbon c arbon dioxide dioxide have have increased increased by about about 25 percent percent since sin ce preindustrial preindustrial times. times. This This rise rise is largely largely due due to to carbon fossil c arbon dioxide dioxide emissions emissions from from the burning of fo ssil fuels f uels and and from from deforestation. deforestation.

In 1985, according according to to estimates for for the IPCC Working W orking Group Group III, III, developing developing countries countries contribcontributed about about one-quarter one-quarter (26 (26 percent) percent) of annual global global emissions; " three three-fourths energy sector sector CO, CO2 emissi ons; 108 -fourths came came from the f rom the the industrialized industrialized market market countries countries and and the c entrally planned planned European European countries countries (including (including the the centrally U.S.S.R. ). By By 2025, 2025, with with expanding expanding populations populations and and U.S.S.R.). rapidly increasing increasing energy energy use, use, developing developing countries countries are projected to to produce produce roughly roughly 44 44 percent percent of of global global are projected energy sector CO,emissions. CO2 emissions. energy sector W hile the the CO. CO2 emissi ons from from the the energy energy sector sector While emissions are fairly well well known, known, there there are are large large uncertainties uncertainties are fairly about ab out the the contribution contribution of of emissions emissions from from deforestadeforestati o n and o ther land use c hanges. This makes it tion and other land use changes. This makes it di ff i c ult t o c al c ulate with co n f iden c e the devel oping difficult to calculate with confidence the developing co untry share share of of both both total total annual annual and and cumulative cumulative country emissi o ns fo r CO and o ther gases. Estimates of the emissions for CO, the 2 and other gases. Estimates of CO ons from from tropical tropical deforestation deforestation differ differ by by CO, emissions 2 emissi a factor of of fo ur.109 By various various estimates, estimates, deforestadeforestaa factor four.'By ti on could could be be the the source source of of between between roughly roughly 7 7 to to 35 35 tion per cent of of total total annual annual CO. CO2 emissi ons. Developing Developing percent emissions. co untries are are also also responsible responsible for for at at least least half half of of the the countries gl o bal anthr o p o geni c generati o n of tw o o ther imp orglobal anthropogenic generation of two other important greenh o use gases, methane and nitr o gen o xides. tant greenhouse gases, methane and nitrogen oxides. In addition to to increases increases in in mean mean global global temperatemperaIn addition ture, o ther e ff e c ts expe c ted t o occ ur with global ture, other effects expected to occur with global 110 warming w o uld in c lude in c reases in sea level warming would include increases in sea level' and and shi fts iin regional temperature, temperature, wind, wind, rainfall, rainfall, and and shifts n regional st orm patterns. patterns. These, These, in in turn, turn, would would submerge submerge some some storm l o w lying co astal areas and wetlands, threaten build low-lying coastal areas and wetlands, threaten buildings and o ther stru c tures in these areas, and in c rease ings and other structures in these areas, and increase the salinity of of coastal coastal aquifers aquifers and and estuaries. estuaries. Such Such the salinity
losipcc Working Group 111, op. op. cit., footnote footnote 106, 106, p. P. 10, 10, table 2. 2.

changes c hanges could could disrupt disrupt human communities communities and aquatic aquati c and and terrestrial ecosystems ecosystems and affect affect food food lll production vailability : pr oduction and and water water a availability. A number of developing devel oping countries countries may may be be especially especially vulnerable vulnerable I 112 to No can t o these these effeb cts. N o one, one, however, can yet predict predict A n u effects:"' m e r o however, f the timing, severity, or r extent of the potential the potential impacts impa cts with certainty. certainty. The IPCC that c climate The IPCC scientists scientists also also noted noted that limate models m odels suggest that controlling controlling emissions emissions can can slow slow gl o bal warming global warming, m 0.3 t t o 0.1 'C per , perhaps from de cade. Emission Emission control control strategies strategies that that countries countries decade. co uld consider consider today today include include improved improved energy energy could e fficiency and and cleaner cleaner energy energy sources-strategies sources-strategies efficiency that may also also have have economic economic benefits. benefits. The The expanexpanthat may si on of of forested forested areas, areas, improved improved livestock livestock waste waste sion management, altered use use and and formulation formulation of ertilizmanagement, altered of f fertilizers, oved management fills and ers, and and impr improved management of of land landfills and wastewater treatment might might also also reduce reduce o or offset wastewater treatment r offset emissions. emissi ons.

Ac hieving meaningful meaningful reductions reductions in emissions Achieving i n emissions will require unprecedented unprecedented levels levels o off international international will require coo peration and and must must in clude developing developing co untries. cooperation include countries. In addition to to the the technological technological challenges challenges for for the the In addition energy, agriculture, and and industrial industrial sectors, sectors, governgovernenergy, agriculture, ments of the and developing developing co untries f ace ments of the industrial industrial and countries face c hallenges in in improving improving and and expanding expanding institutional institutional challenges me chanisms for for technology technology transfer transfer to to developing developing mechanisms co untries for for providing providing vital vital energy energy services services while while countries limiting emissions. These These issues issues are are discussed discussed in limiting emissions. in the the fo rthcoming OT A report report Changing By Degrees: forthcoming OTA Steps Steps To Reduce Reduce Greenhouse Greenhouse Gases. Gases.

Government Policies
Resp onses to to the orating quality Responses the deteri deteriorating quality of of the the envir onment in developing countries countries show show a environment in developing a mixed mixed pi cture. On On the the one one hand, hand, progress progress is is being being made picture. made in in setting government apparatus onsetting up up the the government apparatus of of envir environmental ntrol, and and concern concern and ctivity at mental co control, and a activity at the the

Policymakers summary of the Formulation of Response Strategies: Report for by Working Group III, June 1990, p. 5. 109 Estimates of 1P Estimates of CO emissions from deforestation and land use changes (including wood fuel) were 0.6 to 2.5 in 1980 according to a report prepared for the Working Group Group 1 1. S c i e n t i f i c Assessment for Assessment of of Climate Climate Change: Change: Peer Peer Reviewed Reviewed Assessment Assessment for for WG1 W G I Plenary Plenary Meeting, Meeting, May May 1990, Apr. C CIPCC Working 2 the 30, 1990, p. 1-9. 30, 1990, p. More recent evidence from from selected selected countries countries would would indicate indicate deforestation deforestation rates rates now now are are higher higher than than they they were werin 1980. 1980. Estimates Estimates of of , 1 9 9s 0 " More A precent r . evidence , e m i s i, 1-9. o C0 emissions in +0.5 PtC from CO, emissions in 1987 1987 were were 5.7 5.7 +0.5 from fossil fossil fuel fuel burning burning and and total total emissions emissions were were of of 7 7 +1.1 PtC. P n s2" rate of global mean sea level rise of about 6 cm per decade over the next century, by f o r l o 110Th c cm and 65 cm by by the the end end of of the century with with significant significant regional m e andi 65 the century regional variations. variations. This This increase increase is is p primarily due due to to thermal thermal expansion expansion of of the theoceans and and melting melting y Pf land d some e o rice. of I m C e s t a t C Panel 1 1 'intergovernmental Panel on on Climate Change, Change, 'Policymakers'SummarY of of the the Potential Potential Impacts Impacts of of Climate Climate Change: Change: Report Report from from Working Working Group Group k i oa n the 1990, p. 8. II to tow the F C C , " May May 1990, P. 8.
a e o rr tr d., "Environmental En vi r o n m e n t al and a n d Economic Ec o n o mic Im plic a t io n s of gS e a Le v el a nd S ubsidin g D el t as: Th e Nile nd B e n gal Exa m ple s, minim= e et rd., Implications of Risin Rising Sea Level and Subsiding Deltas: The Nile a and Bengal Examples," '112J.D. si n k AMMO, 18, 1989, 1989, pp. pp. 340-345. 340-345. s g vol. 18, d n l u g a m r m n o

132 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries

grassroots grassr oots level level is rising rapidly. On the other other hand, implementation implementati on of of environmental environmental policies policies is is frefrequently difficult difficult to to achieve, achieve, and and progress progress is is somesometimes impeded impeded by by unintended unintended environmental environmental imimpacts pa cts of of other other policies. policies.

are usually as stri strict as and s sometimes even stri stricter are ct as ometimes even cter than, those than, those of the industrial countries, countries, although although 116 implementation ag. implementati on may may llag. 11 6 Some shown S ome developing developing countries countries have have sh own a signifisignificant environment. c ant commitment commitment to to protecting protecting the envir onment. China's China s most most polluted polluted coal-burning coal-burning cities cities have have mean mean sulfur dioxide ug/m sul fur di oxide levels between 100 and 300 ug /m 3 , about i n British c cities prior to ab ities pri or t o the 3 out the same as in intr o du c ti o n of Britain s Clean A ir Ac t in the early introduction Britain's Clean Air Act , 1950's. income lower 1950 s. China, with levels of in come much much l ower than the United United Kingdom Kingdom in the early early 1950s.. 1950s, has has than the already begun t o respond respond t o the pr oblem by oducalready begun to to problem by intr introducing cleaner urban urban fuels fuels and and outfitting outfitting coal-fired coal-fired ing cleaner plants with effective effective particulate particulate controls'''. controls117. plants with

The past past two two decades decades have have seen seen considerable considerable environmental envir onmental policymaking policymaking activity activity in the the developdeveloping world, world, including including the the establishment establishment of national national environmental envir onmental agencies agencies and and organizations' organizations 113 and the ad option of of laws laws and and practices practices designed designed to to prevent prevent adoption envir onmental pollution pollution and and degradation degradation or or to to proproenvironmental te ct unique unique natural natural environments environments and and wildlife. wildlife. All All in tect all, more than than 100 100 developing developing countries countries now now have have all, more g overnmental bodies bodies whose who114 se responsibilities responsibilities include include governmental However, only only a a limited limited envir onmental protection. protection. However, environmental 115 number of countries' countries have established independent independent number of have established envir onmental agencies agencies iin their central central governgovernenvironmental n their ments. Most ments. Most have have increased increased their their environmental environmental o versight capabilities capabilities by by creating creating or or expanding expanding oversight se ctions or or offices offices within within environment-related environment-related govgovsections ernment departments such such as as agriculture, agriculture, energy, energy, ernment departments f isheries, forestry, forestry, irrigation, irrigation, natural natural resources, resources, or or fisheries, tourism. t ourism. The larger developing developing nations nations with with traditions traditions of of The larger extensive government policymaking policymaking and and implemenimplemenextensive government tati on and and a a relatively relatively advanced advanced domestic domestic research research tation base have formulated formulated and and adopted adopted a a variety variety of of base have envir onmental protection protection laws laws and and standards, standards, ininenvironmental c luding the the requirement requirement of of environmental environmental impact impact cluding statements for large large projects. projects. Developing Developing countries countries statements for with detailed nationwide nationwide air air and and water water quality with detailed quality standards or with with regulations regulations specifying specifying the the levels levels of of standards or permissible pesticide residues residues iin food are are still, still, permissible pesticide n food h owever, in in the the minority. minority. Those Those that that do do have have such such however, regulati ons have have usually usually based based their their legislation legislation on on regulations the standards standards in in force force in in the the industrialized industrialized nations; nations; co nsequently, their their specifications-at specifications-at least least on on paper paper consequently,

Envir onmental concerns concerns in in developing developing countries countries Environmental have not been been limited limited t o domestic domestic issues. issues. DevelopDevelophave not to ing countries have have also also participated participated in in international international ing countries envir onmental protection protection treaties. treaties. Most Most of develenvironmental of the the develo ping countries countries belong belong to to the the World World Heritage, Heritage, oping Endangered Species, and nvenEndangered Species, and Law Law of of the the Sea Sea co conventi ons. Nine Nine developing developing countries, countries, including including Mexico, Mexico, tions. Egypt, Morocco, aand Venezuela, have have already Egypt, Morocco, n d Venezuela, already signed the Montreal Montreal protocol protocol for for protection protection of of the signed the the o zone layer. layer. ozone Many developing countries countries have have also also experienced experienced Many developing an increase in grassroots environmentalism environmentalism in addian increase in grassroots in additi on to to this this official official activity. activity. I In Ecuador, Colombia, Colombia, tion n Ecuador, Guatemala, and Brazil Brazil movements movements organized organized by Guatemala, and by c itizen groups groups have have led o the of ox xi c citizen led t to the banning banning o f tto ic pesti cides and and the the initiation initiation of of ma jor urban cleanpesticides major urban clean118 Indigenous nongovernmental organizations ups. ups. 118 Indigenous nongovernmental organizations ((NG0s) NGOs) have have in creasingly inv olved themselves increasingly involved themselves in in envir onmentally oriented oriented efforts. efforts. More More than 600 environmentally than 600 Brazilian and Indonesian Indonesian NGOs NGOs currently currently are are workworkBrazilian and ing on envir onmental issues, issues, as ousand ing on environmental as are are several several th thousand 119 gr oups in groups in India. India.'

11 3

Countries: Apolitical Perspective, and Natural Resources Management Institutions Developing Countries,

of J e f of International International Law, Issue Issue 2, 2, Summer 1981. 1981.

y draft, Oct. Ba a r 10, 1989. draft. f 1r 1e 4 L er b Papua New Singapore, Trinidad and Tobago, t ia sis o n a for stricter each of residential e r m a r d Chinese d 116The J u the U.S. values; locations, and industrial districts) maximum nitrogen oxide levels permissible in residential areas are equivalent to the a locations, and industrial districts)than the U.S. values; maximum nitrogen oxide levels permissible in residential areas are equivalent to the Japanese Japanese . d and the the maximum maximum carbon carbon monoxide monoxide levels levels allowed allowed at standard; n and at any any time time are much much lower lower than than the the l-hour I-hour averages averages in in West West Germany Germany or or the the United United States. States. il L a , and C.X. Mang, Ambient Environmental Management, vol. p. 473-479. 'EA. Siddiqi and "Ambient Air A i r Quality Quality Standard Standard in in China," Environmental vol. 8, 8, 1984, 1984, p PP. d ySiddiqi a B u e r a g E n vi r o n m e n t D e v elo pi n g c o n t r a c t o r r e p o r t p r e p a r e d fo r t h e D a v of Te c h n ology J u n e 1990. 1 1k 7 u r a e s i n t h e Th i r d p a p e r p r e p a r e d fo r t h e Co nfe r e n c e o n V a s 1 1 8 i n t Hu la c R e s p o n s e, S e p t . 11-14, 11-14, 1989, uly 1989, 1989, p. a n dv and Human Sept. 1989, J July p. 33. 33. W om a n Response, a ih a n v r ld F 119Ibid. d S e R e a M a r m , so o dl i W u rc o r f o , o e sI , e r " r nst

Chapter 5--Energy and the Environment Environment in in Developing Countries 133 133 Chapter Developing Countries

Despite these these achievements, achievements, major major problems problems reremain. A main. A fundamental fundamental constraint constraint on on environmental environmental policymaking developing p olicymaking in all but a handful handful of devel oping countries co untries is is the the absence absence of of systematic, systematic, integrated integrated data on on the the current current state state of environmental environmental pollution pollution and degradation. degradation. While While there is sometimes sometimes a great deal of site-specific site-specific information information connected connected with particular irtually a l l the developing parti cular projects, projects, vvirtually all developing countries co untries lack lack spatially spatially representative representative networks networks for for monitoring m onitoring land, water, water, and and air quality or or accurately accurately measuring the the rates rates of deforestation deforestation or or changes changes in agri cultural land land and and soil soil quality. quality. China China and India, agricultural h owever, have have accumulated accumulated a a fairly fairly extensive extensive inforinforhowever, mati on base base through through the the combined combined activities activities of of mation vari ous government government departments departments and and universityuniversityvarious based researchers. researchers. The implementation and and monitoring monitoring of of environenvironThe implementation mental policies and and standards standards are are also also difficult. difficult. IIn mental policies n m ost countries, countries, the the budgets budgets of of the environmental most the environmental agen cies are are a a small small fraction fraction of of their agencies their minimum minimum needs, and staffing staffing is is inadequate. inadequate. Enforcement Enforcement is is needs, and of ten lax; lax; prosecutions prosecutions are are often often costly, costly, uncertain, uncertain, often and slow; and and the the punishments punishments actually actually meted meted out out and slow; may be inadequate inadequate deterrents.' deterrents.120 may be Envir onmental protection protection is is also also sometimes sometimes imimEnvironmental peded -in both both developing developing and and industrialized industrialized councounpeded-in tries -by government government policies policies intended intended to to promote promote tries-by e conomic growth, growth, generate generate employment, employment, service service economic fo reign debts, debts, o or meet other other important important national national foreign r meet needs. Brazil, for for example, example, a a variety variety of of governgovernneeds. IIn n Brazil, ment policies have have encouraged encouraged rapid rapid development development ment policies and thus rapid rapid deforestation-of deforestation-of the the Amazon. Amazon. These These and thus in clude tax tax exemptions, exemptions, tax tax credits, credits, subsidies subsidies of of include rural credit, and and land land acquisition acquisition laws laws (squatter (squatter rural credit, 121 rights inducements have inadvertently enr i g h t). s ) These .

cou raged a number of of a activities would not be couraged ctivities that w ould n ot be economical i n the of dire direct or indirect e conomical in the absence absence of ct o r indire ct government g overnment supports. supports. For For example, example, the implicit implicit government g overnment subsidy for for ranching ranching alone alone during the period peri od 1975 to to 1986 has been estimated by the World more "The Brazilian W orld Bank at m ore than $1 billion. billion.122 The Brazilian government to of g overnment has recently recently begun begun t o reverse reverse many of these p policies their co costs and these olicies as awareness of their sts and environmental envir onmental impacts impacts has has grown. grown. Similarly, commercial Similarly, commercial logging logging has also also been encouraged through low en couraged by many governments governments thr ough l ow r oyalties and and fees, fees, reduced reduced export export taxes, taxes, and and other other royalties tax breaks for for timber timber companies companies and and other other domestic domestic tax breaks w ood products products industries.' industries.123 wood Tax credits, fiscal Tax credits, investment investment subsidies, subsidies, and other other f iscal supp orts may may be be necessary necessary and and j ustified t o encourencoursupports justified to age needed development, development, and and su ch policies policies are age needed such are widely used in developing and and industrialized industrialized councounwidely used in developing tries. The value value of of depletable depletable natural natural resources resources and and tries. The the costs o of environmental degradation, degradation, however, however, the costs f environmental are ten n ot pr operly a ccounted fo r by are of often not properly accounted for by these these ffinancial inancial instruments. instruments. For For this this reason, reason, many many econoeconomists advocate policies policies that more accurately accurately include include mists advocate that more these costs than than has has sometimes sometimes been been done done in past. these costs in the the past. W ith proper proper valuation valuation of of the the natural natural resources, resources, With envir onmental impacts, impacts, and and other other costs costs and and benefits, benefits, environmental 124 su ch investments investments might might be be made made more more wisely. such wisely:

2 G overnment policies policies iin some industrialized industrialized nanaGovernment n some ' ti ons may may also also inadvertently inadvertently affect affect the the environment environment tions in developing countries. countries. In opean in developing I n 1988, 1988, the the Eur European C ommunity, the the United United States, States, and and Japan Japan provided provided Community, subsidies to their their agricultural agricultural sectors sectors totaling totaling $97.5 $97.5 subsidies to billi on, $67.2 $67.2 billion, billion, and and $57.8 $57.8 billion billion respectively respectively billion, a otal of on.125 This is nearly one-third of at total of $222.5 $222.5 billi billion. 12I I2 T h i s i s of enforcement of laws in developing countries can be found in: R. and L. 2s 0e T h1e n e a r l y Environmental impact assessment in 1977-1985. Environmental Assessment Review, Environmental impact assessment in the the Philippines: Philippines: 1977-1985. Environmental Impact Impact Assessment Review, vol. vol. 7, 7, pp. pp. 293-310. 293-310. C.M. Abraham Abraham and and Cri i n d u 1986, o n e - of Environmental Law, vol. 1986, AnEvaluationof Journal A. A. Rosencranz, "AnEvaluationof Pollution Pollution Control Control Legislation in India,"Columbia Journal vol. 11,1986, 11,1986, pp. pp. 101-1 101-1 18; 18; tiq H. Conservation in Development H. Haemman, uem s "Conservation in Indonesia, Indonesia," AMBIO, vol. vol. 17, 17, 1988, 1988, pp. pp. 218-222; 218-222; Johns, Economic Development and and Wildlife Wildlife Conservation Conservation in in c e t A.D. h Johns, i r Economic d Brazilian Amazonia, A M M O , vol. o Brazilian Amazonia," vol. 17, 17, 1988, 1988, pp. pp. 302-306; 302-306; J. J. Mayda, Environmental "Environmental Legislation Legislation in in Developing Developing Countries: Countries: Some Some Parameters and and e n t s o hna, f Emergence of Constraints, Ecology Law 1985, pp. f Constraints," Ecology Law Quarterly, Quarterly, vol. vol. 12, 12, 1985, pp. 997-1 997-1 024; K. K. Ramakrit hna, The T h e Emergence of Environmental Environmental Law Law in in the the Developing DevTloping Quarterly, vol. vol. 12, Countries, a Case Case Study Study of h g Countries, a of India, India," Ecology Law Quarterly, 12, 1985, 1985, pp. pp. 907-935; 907-935; A.S. Tolentino, "Legislative Response Response to to Marine Marine Threats Threats in in 17, 1988, 1988, pp. 238-242. the ASEAN Subregion," AMMO, vol. the o ASEAN vol. 17, pp. 238-242. a provisions v earing for ranches profitable and penalized owners of unimproved lands, but ranches are still 121Th v e cit., footnote attractive as a a speculative speculative hedge hedge against against inflation. inflation. See See U.S. U.S. Congress, e attractive as Congress, Office of of Technology Technology Assessment, op. op cit., footnote 14; 14; Climate Climate Institute, Institute, Climate "Climate r News Around the Globe,'ClimateAiert, Globe, vol. 2, No. 8; S.B. Hecht, The e News Around the vol.2, No. 3, 3, Fall Fall 1989, 1989, p. p. 8; "The Sacred Sacred Cow Cow in in the theOreenHell: Livestock Livestock and and Forest Forest Conversion Conversion g o n The Ecologist, Ecologist, vol. vol. 19, 19, No. No. 6, in the Brazilian Amazon, The 6, November/December November/December 1989, 1989, pp. pp. 229-234. 229-234. v iin the neBrazilian Amazon,"World m and r n 122Hans p.Binswanger, World Bank, "Fiscal and Legal Incentives W i t h Environmental Effects on the Brazilian Amazon," Agricultural and Rural e a mde Development Department, Operational N. Myers, Rates in Tropical Forests and Their Development Department, Operational Policy Policy Staff, Staff, May May 1987; 1987; N. Myers, Deforestation Deforestation Rates i n Tropical Forests and Their Climatic Climatic Implications Implications n ne t (London: Friends of (London: Friends of the the Earth Earth Limited, Limited, 1989). 1989). v t s Repetto, Deforestation in the Tropics, American, vol. 262, No. 4, April 1990, pp. 36-42. 1t2 3 r e u in DC: Wo r ld R e s o u r c e s In s t i t u t e, R2 o4 n 1 s e fb n e r R o Statement Aimed at Farm Subsidies p Washington Post, July 12, 1990, p. A9. 1 255t t o tl e r y b e uar R r tRe e n t eet c p d A u n e po t e
e r

134 *Energy Energy in in Developing Developing Countries

in the GDP GDP of the 2.8 billion billion people people who who live in low-income t is comparal ow-income developing developing countries, countries, and and iit comparable to to the the GDP GDP of their entire agricultural agricultural sector.' sector.126 Some S ome of of these these subsidies subsidies may may tend tend to to hold hold agriculagricultural prices prices down down in developing developing countries countries as as well as If limiting their their export export opportunities.' opportunities.127 I f this occurs occurs and reduces reduces developing developing countries countries earnings earnings for for their agricultural agri cultural output, output, they may have less incentive incentive and ability to to invest in agricultural agricultural research research and developdevelopment or or infrastructure infrastructure to to achieve achieve higher higher yields yields and and quality. As As noted noted above, above, low low agricultural agricultural productiveproductiveties (together (together with with inequitable inequitable land land tenure, tenure, etc.) etc.) co ntribute to to the the expansion expansion of of croplands croplands into into ecolecolcontribute o gically fragile fragile areas. areas. Similarly, Similarly, import import tariffs tariffs to to ogically pr otect domestic domestic timber timber industries industries iin industrial protect n industrial co untries may may encourage encourage inefficient inefficient harvesting harvesting iin countries n

tropical full of the the tr opical forests forests because because the f ull market market value value of resources res ources cannot cannot be be obtained.' obtained.128 However H owever well-intentioned, well-intentioned, the development development polipolicies c ies of bilateral development development agencies agencies and multilatmultilateral development dieral development banks have also also sometimes sometimes di rectly re ctly contributed contributed to to environmental environmental degradation degradation due due to t o their their emphasis emphasis on on large large projects--transportaprojects--transportation hydroelectric ti on infrastructures, infrastructures, 129 hydroelectric facilities, facilities, and i, Development agencies agencies are, are, industrial complexes. Development industrial complexes. h owever, becoming becoming more more sensitive sensitive to to these these environenvironhowever, 130 mental nn cerns. role of development agenmental co co c e r n sThe : c ies in in promoting promoting the the adoption adoption of ore environmenenvironmencies of m more 3 tally s o und energy te c hn o l o gies will be examined in 'tally 11 esound r o energy l e technologies will be examined in a ort of of this OTA study. study. a later later report this OTA o f rep d e v e l o p m e n t a g e n -

in middle-income developing a 1987 1987 GDP Wo in middle-income developing countries countries who who had had a GDP of of nearly nearly $2 $2 trillion. trillion.
r d7 1l 2 DC:B U.S. DC: U.S. Department of of Agriculture, Agriculture, Economic Economic Research Research Service, Service, 1989). 1989). V e r Department a n oun ta s , Congress, Office of of Technology Technology Assessment, Op. Op. cit., cit., footnote 14 n O M. Development Environmental 1 2,9 k . Policy, and the United Ecology Law Quarterly, vol. 12, No. 4, 1985; Policy, and the United States, States,"Ecology Law Quarterly, vol. 12, No 4, 1985; P. P. Aufderheideand Aufderheideand B. B.Rich, EnvironmentalR "EnvironmentaIR eform eform and and the the Multinational Multinational 1 L W R World Policy Policy Journal, Journal, Spring Spring 1988, Banks, Sustainable Development: Banks," 1988, pp. pp. 301-321; 301-321; W. W. Reid, Reid, "Sustainable Development: Lessons Lessons From From Success, Success," Environment, Environment, vol. vol. 31, 31, No. No S . World o o 4, 1989, pp. pp. 7-35, 7-35, 4, May May C 1989, r n { fore-pie, of B@ projects, and Energy Department lo "A Review of the the Treatment of all/ ironmental 13 i Working n Paper, Energy Series Paper No. 24, March 1990. d S Working Paper, Energy Series Paper No. 24, M a r d i 1990. n g r D ee g e , s e s v f , n O e a lf

126

does not include the 1 billion people in Market

Appendix A

Glossary of Energy Units

Appendix A Appendix

Glossary of Energy Units

(Btu)--The in British thermal unit ( Btu)--The basic basic unit unit of of energy energy in the English units. The to the English system system of of units. The energy energy required required t o heat 1 water 1 Btu is is about the heat 1 pound pound of of water 1 oF. oF. One One Btu about the a single single match match tip. tip. energy given energy given off off by by burning burning a Hectare (ha)-An area of land land measuring Hectare area of measuring 10,000 10,000 square square meters or meters or equivalently equivalently 100 100 meters meters by by 100 100 meters. meters. One One hectare hectare is is equal equal to to about about 2.5 2.5 acres. acres.

J oule (J)--A (J)--A basic basic unit the metri c system. system. A A Joule unit of of energy energy in in the metric joule of of energy energy is is very very small small (a (a single ch tip joule single mat match tip gives off about about 1,000 1,000 joules), joules), so so joules joules are are often often gives off multiplied by orders orders often often (10, (10, 100, 100, 1,000, 1,000, etc.) etc.) to to multiplied by yield useful units: units: yield useful
Name Abbreviation Value Value A b b r e v i a t i o n E q Equivalent uivalent kJ k J MJ J JGJ TJ PJ EJ
0 . 9

kilojoule ua sa d ((1 10 0'3) ) jjoules kilojoule t h t ohuo s nnd oules 6 megajoule m million i l l i o n ((10 1 0 ' ) j joules oules M gigajoule b i lbillion (109) j joules l i o n (10') oules G 12 terajoule 1 1 0 O joules 15 u j o u l e1 s 10 petajoule t r joules joules P J 18 T exajoule 1 1 0 0' joules joules E J
J

0.95 5 Btu Btu

quads 0 . 9 0.95 5 quads

en ne er gy y p prro od du uc ct t iio on n a an nd d c co on ns su on a c co ou s Total e rg um mp pt ti io n ffo or r a un nt tr ry y iis t y p i c ally g iven i n exajoules; e x ajo u l e s; p er c apita e n erg y c o n s u m p t i o n iis s typically given in per capita energy consumption t y pic ally given giv e n i n gig ajo ule s (1 GJ q u iv ale n t t o t he e n e r g y ii n typically in gigajoules (1 G J is e equivalent to the energy n a b o u t 7.5 g allo n s o of a s oli n e). about gallons f g gasoline).

Kilogram ( kg)--The basic basic unit unit of of weight weight in the metric metric (kg)--The in the system, equal to to 2.2 2.2 pounds. pounds. system, equal Kilowatt (kW)--The (kW)--The power power (energy (energy per per unit time) unit unit in unit time) in whi ch electricity electricity is is measured. measured. which Kilowatthour ( kWh)--The energy energy unit unit in in which which elecelec(kWh)--The tri c ity is measured. A 100 watt light bulb burning tricity is measured. A 100-watt light bulb burning fo r 10 ours consumes consumes 100 100 W ours= 1,000 for 10 h hours WX X 10 10 h hours= 1,000 W h= =1 1 kWh kWh of of energy. energy. Wh Meter e b ba as si c u un ni it of en n tth he e m me et ic c system, s y s t e m, M e t e r ((m)--Th m)--The ic t o f lle ng gt th h ii n tr ri equal to inches. e q u al t o 39.4 in ches.

Quad 1015 Btus. The United States currently consumes Qua d 15 ab out 80 80 quads quads (80X (80X 10 about 10 Btus) of energy per year. 1 Quad is equal to about 1.05 exajoules (EJ). 1 0 11 '1Quad is equal to about 1.05 exajoules (EJ). Tonne (tt))-o or r m me et tr rii c c tto on nn ne e, , e eq qu ua al o 1 1,0 00 0 T otnu ne Ss h) o rt r t ff o l tt o ,00 ' ( B t uSh B s 2,200 p o unds. k ilo g r a m s o r a b o u t kilograms or about 2 , 2 0 0 p o u n d s . o f
. T h e U n i t e d S e n e r g y p e r y e a r .

137 137