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THE SOCIOPHYSICS OF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT PREPARING FOR THE UNITED NATIONS WORLD SUMMIT FOR SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT COPERHAGEN

1995 MATRIX OF CONTENTS SYSTEM PROCESS Much? INPUT FACTORS THROUGHPUT Resources OPERATIONS OUTPUT IMPACTS STRUCTURE EXPOSITION What? Form Connect Where? Place Context Who? Parts Content FUNCTION EXPLANATION When? Time Cause How? Means Method Why? Ends Purpose Cost VALUE EVALUATION How Price

Whence? Supply Whether? Worth Reward

THE SOCIOPHYSICS OF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT PREPARING FOR THE UNITED NATIONS WORLD SUMMIT FOR SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT COPERHAGEN 1995 ABSTRACT This essay attempts to conceptualize World Development in a global perspective encompassing humanity, society, and ecology. This means looking at the human content in its natural and historical context in order to examine various assumptions, hypotheses and parameters, as well as evaluate different public policy options. Three UN Decades of Development have come and gone without making much headway into this intractable issue. One thing however we did learn was that the emphasis in economic growth and heavy industrialization is too restricted an interpretation of development. With the coming of the World Summit for Social Development, it seems that a broader and deeper search is now on for a "global sustainable development". Although the phrase is widely used, there is still no consensus as to what it means, let alone how it could be attained. So, it behooves us to define and refine our terms before we go any further to implement them. By now our accumulated experience indicates the need for a more holistic approach in anticipation of the next century. It is such eclectic synthesis that will be attempted here in the broadest of strokes. Accordingly, the main thesis of this work is that human development must be seen in a larger perspective which includes physical nature, political culture, and personal nurture. The increasing global integration of the world necessitates a sociophysical, macrohistorical and geospheric attitude which only a dialectic-syncretic synthesis can produce. In order to do that, we ask what we consider to be the most pertinent questions about development: i.e. what it is; where does it take place; who is involved; when does it happen; how does it proceed; why should we undertake it; how much does it cost, whence do its resources come; and whether it is worth it. Posing these questions and attempting to answer them, should give a better idea of the important aspects of this elusive concept. P. J. Arnopoulos, Concordia University, Montreal, March 1994

INTRODUCTION The problems arising from the uneven development of the world's regions have plagued the modern world for some time now. Without going into the usual litany of statistical data showing the wellknown disparities between the so-called more and less developed countries, it must be admitted that the infamous North-South Gap is both a geopolitical and socioeconomic reality which threatens as well as challenges the global system. Deep concerns and many attempts have so far done little to aleviate this critical problem. During three Development Dacades different ideas and actions were implemented by the UN and its members to spread out and even out development throughout the world. All this activity was based on two alternative ideological roads to development: -Modernization, North-Western liberal-capitalist, free market gradualist. -Socialization, Third World Dependencia, central planning protectionist. A theory of development was first elaborated by the Modernity School of thought which shaped the First Development Decade of the sixties. It was followed and opposed by the Dependency School, which underlined the Second Development Decade and the call for a NIEO in the seventies. Neither of these roads was very successful in general, so more sophisticated ideas were introduced. The most innovative was the World System School which was elaborated during the Third Development Decade of the eighties. These three schools epitomize the first generation of development thinking and complete the first cycle of its historical dialectic, with the modernization thesis confronting the socialization antithesis, and concluding with the World-System synthesis. The first generation also coincided with the Cold War period which pitted Eastern and Western ideologies against each other throughout the world. The dramatic events circa 1990, however, demanded a complete rethinking of development, given that communism, central planning, and industrialism were on the way out. The launching of the Fourth Development Decade of the nineties was thus cought in a theoretical upheaval and ideological vaccuum from which it still has not been able to escape. So we are still groping in the dark as to where we go from here. This paper gropes a little further in clarifying the concept of development by trying to answer nine fundamental questions pertaining to it. On the basis of this conceptual framework, we proceed to deal with each question in the following sections. In this way, we hope to draw a complete and definitive outline of the development agenda, given the practical constraints of this synoptic presentation.

1.

FORM

DEVELOP: unwrap, uncover, unfold, emerge, expose, manifest realize, actualize, activate, energize, mobilize, enable grow, expand, advance, promote, progress, graduate, mature, ripen, cultivate, educate, reform, convert, raise compose, incorporate, embody, integrate, structure, diffenrentiate, complexify, improve, valorize, effect 1.1 WHAT does Development mean? Term Definition.

As its dictionary definition indicates, development has been conceived in many ways. The broadest one denotes it as the process whereby potential becomes kinetic energy. This conotes a transformation of an existential potentiality into an actual reality. In doing so, this directed conversion is supposed to lead towards the amelioration of a system's structural-functional capability. This makes development a qualitative change which improves the state and operation of a system. This teleologic definition views development as an instrumental process which enhances a system's performance so that it can better attain its goals. If the system happens to be a human society, then we speak of social development (SD) or anaptixis. Although SD is the center of our concerns here, it is not our entire universe of discourse. As any system, society does not exist in vacuum but within an environment. The world social system therefore arose and survives in the natural environment of Earth. The planetary ecosystem undergoes an equivalent process of change. This natural evolution (NE) or exelixis, defined as the gradual transformation of primitive organic simplicity to syntropic complexity by random selection and mutation, has so far culminated in the creation of the human species and its artifacts, including society. It is by the combined interaction of NE and SD that humanity has reached its present state as the paragon of animals or perhaps their worst enemy. Human progress (HP) or prohodos, defined as mental, moral and emotional maturation through education and contemplation, is an intensive and intentional road to spiritual enlightenment, therefore a function of both NE and SD: i.e. HP=(NE,SD). In this perspective, we present the following three concentric circles to represent the human egosphere at the center and the ecosphere at the periphery, with the sociosphere in the middle. From a global perspective, all socialized people exist within the World society which in turn exists within the nature of planet Earth. Another way of showing these three spheres and their interrelations is in the following triangular schema. In it, we should

note the heavy arrows indicating the principal influence channel flows and the light arrows as their feedbacks. Although the relations are circular, we focus on society as our central system and hypothesize that: Human existence depends on society and social existence on nature; i.e. humanity (dependent variable) is a function of sociology (intervening factor) and ecology (independent parameter). Assuming this hypothesis, NE is the necessary prerequisite for SD. Similarly, SD is prerequisite for HP. These three variable form a closed loop whose feedbacks propel it forward. So economic growth, enviromental integrity and global security go together. 1.2. WHERE is Development taking place? Context, Arena, Geography.

Having established our systemic parameters about development, we can now look around to see where this activity can be found. In that endeavor, we can discern development at three different levels of aggregation: LOCAL: Family Development, Community Development, Urban Development REGIONAL: National Development, Continental Development, Federation. GLOBAL: World Development, Biospheric Development, World Government The main conflicts of the world are rooted in the perspective different people take in relation to these levels. Ethnic, national, or cosmopolitican points of view make all the difference in describing, explaining and behaving in this world. Obviously, what is perceived as good at one level or region, is not necessarily so for another. So the national interest of a country does not automatically coincide with the common good of mankind. As a result there is always inequalities and inequities in the Standard of Living and Quality of Life of different groups. That is one of the variables of the human condition from which there is no escape. Because of different natural, social, and human endowments, development takes place unevenly in its various venues. Some societies lead ahead while others lag behind. In the contemporary world, it is nor difficult to distinguish the famous three worlds of divelopment: FIRST-TOP-CORE: North-Western; 500 million (10%) with >$ 20,000/cap SECOND-MIDDLE-MARGIN: North-Eastern: 1 billion with $ 2,000-20,000. THIRD-BOTTOM-PERIPHERY: Poor South. 4 billion with < $ 2,000. (70% of the world,of which very poor 3 billion with < $ 500.) As a result, the three vertical levels pointed out above are intersected by three horizontal worlds, to form the geopolitical & socioeconomic pyramid of the world's class structure. The top 10% of the world has 100 times the income of the bottom 10%. The glaring inequalities of this structure condemns almost 4 billion people live in conditions of extreme human suffering. Three quarters of humanity hardly benefit from the minimal conditions of human welfare in terms

of life expectancy, primary education, adequate nutrition, basic hygene, or political participation. Even the First World has 100 million poor and 30 million unemployed poor. 1.3. WHO is involved in Development? Human Element & Social Roles.

Human society is not simply a permanent group of interrelated individuals, but a complex system of group structures and functions. The most significant taxonomy of social sectors is that of political, economic and cultural institutions or activities. As social actors, people perform their roles according to political, economic or cultural exigencies. In this perspective, an inclusive SD includes political and cultural, as well as economic development. These three aspects constitute the necessary and sufficient structures and functions of any social system formalized as: i.e. SD=f(PD,ED,CD). Unfortunately, the meaning of development in general has been restricted to ED and more specifically to gross production growth through industrialization. This meant that ED is proportional to per capita matergy consumption, produced mainly by the secondary manufacturing sector. Similarly, the CD aspect of SD is reflected in modernization defined by the innovative extent to which artificial matter and mechanical energy are utilized in a society. Modernization leads society towards greater specialization, secularization, rationalization, functionalization, commercialization, bureaucratization, urbanization, and centralization. Finally, the least examined aspect of SD is PD, defined as improving collective conflict-resolution by dialectical means. This means increased citizen participation in policy making by public consultation and interest accomodation. This cybernetic aspect of SD, enhances the government and management of public affairs, thus making society more efficient and effective.

2.

FUNCTION

Throughout history, world affairs have been conceived and conducted on the premise of two polar paradigms: -Realist: power politics, military might, competitive conflict, Hobesian War -Idealist: legal order, moral right, cooperative coexistence, Kantian Peace. These two explainations combined and alternated in dominating the international system in successive cycles, until the present when another one seems to be emerging in a new global order. 2.1. WHEN did Development happen? Timing; Conditions; Motives, History. Pre-historically, anaptixis and exelixis were almost identical. But ever since the begining of history with the agricultural revolution and first wave of civilization, the gap between evolution and development widened significantly because of the acceleration of social change. During this long period there existed many semi-isolated international systems around the world, having low production and consumption, based on organic energy sources. With the onslaught of the second macrohistorical wave of the Renaissance, followed by european capitalism, expansionism and industrialism, the two tendencies definitely diverged: the vector (rate and direction) of SD leaving way behind that of NE. This was made possible by utilizing inorganic sources of energy. During this period. the various interstate systems gradually began their integration into a single global system. Their differential rates of development however, due to a combination of imperialism and indistrialism, created great geopolitical gaps between the European center and its colonial periphery. By mid-twentieth century, this picture began to change with the globalization of the world system from its European center. The three worlds of development were established, each with a different vector of SD. In the last 50 years, the world has accumulated more wealth and people than in the past 500, not to speak of ever before. The forces of production and population have never been as high in all history. This era is now coming to a close together with the end of the century. The new technological revolution and planetary transnationalization are bringing 500 years of western dominance to a close.The new era openning up now integrates the world socially into a single system. The problem is that the political, economic and social sectors are integrating at different speeds, thus creating discontinuities, instabilities, and contrarieties. At the same time there are still residual anti-integrationist movements which provide the antithesis in this dialectic process. The most advanced societies are in a process of deindustrialization while the less advanced are only begining to

indistrialize. 2.2 HOW does Development proceed? Method, Means, Plans

A sustainable society is one whose cybernatic institutions are able to keep in check the positive feedback loops which cause exponential growths of population and production. To be physically sustainable, a system's rate of matergy flows must equal: regeneration of renewable resources; substitution of depletiable resources; pollution emissions and assimilation capacity. Economic cycles happen when the supply and demand of goods and services fluctuates out of step. These ups and downs of the economy follow the short bull-bear market 10 year cycles, the medium Kondratieff 50 year cycles, and the long logistic c 200 year expansionconsolidation cycles. SD takes place when a society graduates from a lower into a higher stage, much like an electron jumpig from an outer into an inner orbit. For this to happen, the society must acquire a quantum of higher energy potential. Such potential must come from somewhere, either by historical determinism, random event, or policy plan. Social security is defined as a viable balance between population demand, economic performance, and resource endowment. Political security is the state's ability to defend against government repression, domestic insurection, and foreign invasion. The three master variables for SD are: population; technology; resources. SD takes place what technological innovation, and/or resource expansion lead population growth. The increase of all three variable produce lateral pressures for expansion. A breakthrough from a lower into a higher level requires: -Politics: Expanding the total market by extending political boundaries -Economics: Capturing a larger share of the market by capital investment -Technics: Lowering the costs of production by technological innovations SD requires creative innovation and political independence. Modernization is a universal social solvent; it penetrates and alters any social context with which it comes in contact For SD to take off, the prerequisite is. mobilization of capital resources in order to raise productive investment to about 10% of GDP/capita. SD may be: Linear (unidirectional); Cyclical (alternating); dialectic (mixed). D can only take place when one particular class, region, or period, exploits (net import of resources) others. The exploited are usually the lower classes, the peripheral areas, the future generations or the natural environment. Such exploitation is natural and unavoidable in any dynamic system. The only variable is its extent. Only over or under exploitation is in question, one the normal or natural level is established. Such level is determined by a combination

of natural and cultural standards. Although the former tend to the fixed for large areas and long periods, the latter keep changing in time and place. Developing all three of these sectors is not often possible. Emphasizing one at the expence of the others is more likely. Every group of actors always combines cooperation and conflict with others in order to maximaze its perceived interests. Recently, Pressures from massive debt obligations and widespread unemployment are diverting resources from SD. SD is brought about by the bourgeoisie, because they provide the capital, achievement motivation and enterpreneurship 2.3. WHY does Development happen: Purposes, Ends, Priorities

The purposes of SD are in three successive phases: -Immediate: Humanitarian: lessen human suffering herenow by raising S of L. -Intermediate: Utilitarian: maximizing the Q of L of most people everywhere -Ultimate: Transcendential: provide conditions for human enlightenment. Needed is a new moral basis for the development agenda of the next century. The social function of an ideology or religion is to provide a meaningful system of values upon which morality can be based. Ideology influences SD. Religion sanctifies things, whereas ideology secularizes them. There is a direct correlation between ED and Democracy (the political system that allows regular and legitimate opportunities for regime change by popular participation). The preconditions of D are: economic prosperity, civic equality, pluralistic structure, tolerant culture, independent polity. The economy is necessary but not sufficient condition for D. SD requires a multivariate analysis. Economic prosperity is indispensible to political freedom & social justice. SD, which usually means more equitable redistribution of wealth, usually clashes with ED, which usually means more rapid production of wealth. These two alternatives can only be combined by distributing s growing surplus more equitably, as long as there is growth. Otherwise, SD becomes a policy of equal distribution of poverty and misery. A triple alliance among state-capital-labor is the winning coalition of SD

3. 3.1.

CULCULUS

HOW MUCH does Development cost? Price, Budget, Loss, Obstacles

SD can only be carried out at the cost of the environment. Global environmental atmospheric (hyperthermia, deozonification, acidity), terrestrial (deforestation, desertification, infestation), and aquatic (inundation, pollution, depletion) problems, are all induced by large-scale ED. The feedbacks from these activities increase agricultural infertility, economic decline, population displacement, social disruption. Population growth and environmental damage will result in more conflicts. The greater the population and its activities, the heavier its impact on the environment and on social side effects, including conflict. Environmental costs are a function of: population; technology; resources It has been proposed that the Impact of humanity on nature equals the Population size multiplied by its per capita Affluence and its consumption Technology; i.e. I=PAT (the rough indicator of PAT is the total energy consumption of a system in kilowatts. According one estimate in 1990, the North with population of 1 billion burned as much as 9 kW/capita for a total of 9 terawatts, whereas the South with 4 billion burned only 1 kW/capita, for a total of 4 TW. Grant total for the world is 13 TW. By the next generation in 2025, these figures may be: N 2x4=8; S 6x2=12, total 20. Many countries privatize extraordinary profits and socialize all losses. More often than not, macroeconomic development takes precedence over SD and is carried out at the expence of the weakest and most vulnerable groups of people. Economic solutions do not necessarily benefit the poor and meek. The twin goals of development are contradictory. ED tries to produce new wealth, whereas SD tries to distribute old wealth. But, wealth accumulation is an obstacle to equitable redistribution. Without ED, SD is a zero-sum game. That is why, in spite of decades of ED, the maldistribution of wealth is increasing and disparities now are greater that ever. SD is concerned with institutional efficiency and efficacy; cost-effective accountability Appropriate technology, rather than dogmatic ideology is more important. Technology upgrades knowledge and creativity, rather than capital or productivity. The costs of SD include: disorganization, demoralization, deviance and alienation Borrowing is the alternative to saving capital fot SD investment. But excessive borrowing becomes addictive and difficult to reverse. Therefore, an austerity policy of reducing spending and imports and/or increase of income or exports are the traditional options of SD. ISI

(import-substituted industrialization) or ELI (export-led industrialization) have been tried successively in the first two development decades. The former is an isolationist decoupling stradegy, the latter is an international division of labor subcontracting strategy. Contrary to the Dependencia School, dependency does nor preclude SD. Dependent-associated SD has been shown to be quite successful for many small countries from Canada to Singapore. Even colonialism does not preclude SD, as Hong Kong has proved, so long as the interests of the coloniser and the colonized coincide which happens under certain conditions. Long-tern investment always lacks behind short-term needs. Whenever SD happens rapidly, it creates sharp discontinuities, resulting in social turbulence, political instability and moral turpitude. SD:when dominant elites calculate their apparent self-interest to warant it. The ongoing debate between Neomalthusians and Cornucopians is not one between scientists as pessimists and optimists. The accumulating global problems however tend to lean the argument towards the former because of the multiple coinciding syndromes of good scarcities and bad abundances are rapidly accelerating to critical proportions which overwhelm social institutions to respond. 3.2. WHENCE does Development come? Drive, Availability, Will, Funding

Who pays for SD is always an important question, since those who pay are not necessarily those who benefit. Capital investment, natural resources, and human volition are the sine qua non of development. Relations between the state and society must be redifined. Demands upon the state are always greater than its resources, so it cannot supply all the benefits wanted of it. Greater global mobility of capital and information reduces states ability to control their economies. The trends to deregulation, denationalization, demilitarization, and detaxation, spell the lessening role of the state. Countervailing impotence is the phenomenon of diminishing influence of governments, corporations and syndicates in the face of global mobility of resources and competition of markets. Therefore, people must accept greater responsibility for their welfare through democratic, decentralized and privatized NGO's. Mutual aid cooperatives, credit unions, marketing boards, job training, consumer protection, labor unions, can all help empowering the people. Defined by UNCED, a sustainable society is one that meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. In the present juncture, it is very difficult to speak of independent regional, let alone local development. Global

interdependence makes development a world affair. Only complete isolationism can make any particular part of the world go its own way and determine the conditions of its own development. 3.3. WHETHER Development is worth the price? Benefit, Net Gain, Profit.

SD is a double edged sword. Like Promethean fire, it can go both ways: Uncovering the goods of Almathea's Cornucopia (Horn of Plenty) Unleashing the furies of Pandora's Box of Evils. The human spirit (Thymos) may in extremes become pride (Hubris). As Hegel said, death is the ultimate equalizer when entropy levels everything to the same low ground. There is no question that development has made life much more comfortable for the top 10% of humanity, but it has also made life worse for the bottom half. Is ther net differential worth it Restoring confidence in state institutions is a critical first step on the road to social reconstruction. Policy must take into account prevailing realities, without becoming prisoner of current circumstances. Moderation is the classical Greek virtue of avoiding extremes even if they are good. Sorokin's Law of Limits reformulated this virtue by proposing that carried to extremes, even good things become evil. The glue that holds social systems together is the trust that people have in their social institutions to keep public order and social security. Under normal circumstances, it is this trust that stands between civilization and barbarism. Tearing apart the fabric of community leaves us naked in the jungle of natural law. In turbulent times, this trust erodes when people loose faith in their government's protective capacity. A shrinking economy brings out the worst in people who have to fight for less by doing more cutthrat actions. When this happens, people can only depend on their own powers and act accordingly in a dog eat dog world, where egoism runs rampant. When people only depend on themselves, community spirit is lost to ragged individualism. Anti-social behavior, underground economy, political treason flourish. The other side of the coin, of course, is reflected in tax revolts, flight of capital, loss of initiative. Self-preservation is a powerful motivator in a system based on the survival of the fittest. In such climate of fear and desparation, social solidarity crumbles, faith becomes cynicism, hope gives way to despair and charity to greed. When social programs are dismantled, people are forced to adapt by relying on their own resources and economic failure means biological extinction. Optimal global policy: demographical deceleration; technological acceleration; ecological preservation

CONCLUSION From the above argument, SD (valorization-enhancement) is composed of three actor-sector-vectors: POLITICAL: Power Weight: Empowerment, Enforcement, Entitlement, Liberation, Equity, Responsibility, Democracy, Force, State, government, bureaucracy, military, party. ECONOMIC: Plenty Wealth, Enrichment, Capitalism; Commercialism; Price, Industrialization, Prosperity, Productivity; Greed; Companies, Banks, Factories, Farms, Unions CULTURAL: Prestige Worth, Enlightenment, Refinement, Structuration; Socialization, Cultivation, Civilization, Sophistication; Security, Fertility, Longevity; mobility; Pride; Health, Education, Housing, Nutrition, Hygene, Recreation; Bourgeoisie, enterpreneurs, Families, Schools, Clubs. We conclude by summarizing the two polar paradigms of SD and their possible integration into a proposed third one by a dialectical process. The first is the realist thesis which sees the world as a Hobesian status natura. As such, it emphasizes peace through power and development through technology. Economic growth, industrial might, and free trade are the means of maximizing standard of living and lead to SD. The second is the idealist antithesis which sees the world as a Kantian civitas maxima. As such, it emphasizes peace through law and development through welfare security. Economic protection, social justice, and equitable distribution are the means of maximizing quality of life and lead to SD. These two positions can be combined into what may be called a naturalist synthesis which sees the world as part of the holistic system of Gaia. As such, it emphasizes peace through coexistence and sustainable development through homeostasis. Balance of humanitysociety-ecology by combining human rights, social duties, and natural laws as the optimal SD. The following schema illustrates this dialexis:

NATURALISM SYSTEM-LIGHT PHYSIS-COSMOS EXELIXIS

REALISM POWER-MIGHT TECHNE-THYMOS AUXESIS

IDEALISM LAW-RIGHT POLIS-NOMOS ANAPTIXIS

HUMANISM PERSON-BRIGHT PSYCHE-ANTHROPOS PROODOS

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