Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 10, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 10, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
India 2013-14 sugar production estimated at 23.7 MT
Drought in Maharashtra, Indias biggest sugar producing state is likely to pull down Indias overall sugar production in 2013-14 crop season that starts from October 2013 by 5% to 23.7 million tonnes as compared to 25 million tonnes in 2012-13, a preliminary estimate done by Indian Sugar Mills Association showed (ISMA). According to ISMA, sugarcane acreage in 2013-14 season is expected to be around 5.15 million hectares, almost 1.52% less than last year, mainly due to drought in Maharashtra. In Uttar Pradesh, ISMA said that despite huge sugarcane arrears, farmers will still be interested to sow the crop because of high prices in comparison to wheat and paddy. Sugarcane acreage in UP is expected to 3.1% higher than last year. UP along with Maharashtra contribute more than 80% of the total sugar produced in the country. In Maharashtra, sugarcane acreage is expected to fall by 12.5% in 2013-14 mainly due to drought in main growing areas. Acreage is also down by almost 8% in Karnataka due to low rains. ISMA said that the opening sugar balance for 2013-14 season will be around 8 million tonne, which is around 2 million tonnes more than usual opening balance (Source: Business Standard

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 9, 2013
WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19439 5859 60.10 103.53 1245.9

0.59 0.82 -0.98 0.38 0.89

-0.13 0.02 0.92 3.95 0.18

0.05 -0.37 5.32 7.81 -9.91

11.77 11.07 7.61 20.40 -21.57

Rain damage may force China to import more wheat

.Source: Reuters

Wheat imports by China may be 57% higher than US government forecast after rains during the harvest damaged crops in the worlds biggest consumer of the grain. Heavy rain caused newly matured wheat to germinate in parts of provinces including Henan and Shandong, the top two growers, which lowered output, the China National Grain & Oils Information Centre said in a report. Cutting projected output by 1.27 million tones. (Source: Business Line)

Guar beckons Maharashtra farmers

With the demand for guar gum on the rise in domestic and international markets, farmers groups have started cultivating guar crop in over 1,000 acres in central Maharashtra. The first crop is expected to be harvested early October. Over 750 farmers in Maharashtra, belonging to about 100 groups in the Jalna district, have now come together to collectively sow, harvest and market the crop. Jalna has a dry climate, best suited for guar cultivation. Indian Council for Agriculture Research-supported Kisna Vikas Kendra has taken a lead in helping the farmers. From an acre of farmland, about 400 kg of guarseed can be harvested. Therefore, by October, Jalna would be able to supply about 400 tonnes. (Source: Business
Line)

Brazil bumps up record corn, soybean forecasts

Brazil's government crop supply agency Conab slightly raised its forecast for the country's record 2012/2013 corn and soybean crops on Tuesday, citing problem-free harvesting and historical expansion in area planted in a report. The agency estimated the corn crop at 79.1 million tonnes, up from its 78.5-million-tonne forecast in June, and lifted its view of the now-harvested soybean crop to 81.5 million tonnes from 81.3 million tonnes forecast last month. Brazil, an agricultural powerhouse that is poised to take on a larger share of the world's food production in coming years, will produce 8.4 percent more corn this season than it did with its previous record crop last year. (Source: Reuters)

Stockists sell basmati seeds at double the procurement price

Encouraged by higher realisation last year, farmers have rushed to ensure basmati paddy seed to cover sowing in the maximum possible area this kharif season. They fear scarcity could reduce their potential sowing area and, thereby, the chances of higher earnings. To cash in on the farmers rush, stockists are selling basmati seeds at 100 per cent premium over the procurement price in major growing states such as Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. According to trade sources, traditional basmati seed is selling between Rs 46 and Rs 48 a kg, compared with Rs 22-23 a kg last year. (Source: Business Standard)

Sugar duty hike to help millers

The Government has hiked the import duty on sugar to 15 per cent from the present 10 per cent to curb cheaper inflow of the sweetener into the country. The hike in duty may help stabilise sugar prices and in the process help millers to make cane payments, currently estimated at Rs 9,000 crore. The Department of Revenue has issued a notification regarding the duty hike on raw and refined sugar imports, which has come into effect from Monday. The latest move follows representations by sugar co-operatives and farmers to hike the import duty as a bearish trend in realisations has not only hurt the millers but also the cane payments to farmers. (Source: Business Line)

Thailand to sell rice from its record stocks via tenders

Thailand said it will hold a series of tenders to sell rice from its record stocks to free up space for arrivals of the grain from the next pricesupport scheme expected from October. The move could add to pressure on global rice prices which are already in a downward trend due to rising supply in major producing countries, and there were doubts whether demand for the tenders would be strong. The government was estimated to hold 17 million tonnes of milled rice in stocks, the highest ever and double what it sold in a normal year. Thailand slipped from its position as the world's top rice exporter last year to third-biggest as its exports fell to 6.9 million tonnes from 10.6 million in 2011. India and Vietnam were the top two rice exporters in 2012, shipping 10.2 million tonnes and 7.7 million tonnes, respectively. (Source: Reuters)

Thai Palm Oil Exports Seen Rising

Thailand, the worlds third-largest palm oil producer, may boost exports to a record this year as output increases, Oil World said. Thailand may export as much as 450,000 metric tons of palm oil, up from 304,000 tons a year earlier, the Hamburg-based researcher said today in an e-mailed report. Shipments totaled 227,000 tons from January through May, up 24 percent from the same time in 2012. While production may slightly exceed 1.7 million tons, some analysts estimates are as high as 2 million tons, Oil World said. Production five years ago was 1.3 million tons. Latest export data confirm a pronounced further uptrend of palm oil production in Thailand, owing to a larger mature area and higher yields, Oil World said. (Source: Business Line)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 10, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana August futures traded on a bullish note yesterday and settled 2.11% higher due to bargain buying at lower levels coupled with good demand in the spot market ahead of the festive season. Demand from millers also supported prices at lower levels. However, higher sowing of the kharif pulses capped sharp gains. The Food Ministry is in favor to impose duty on imports to curb imports. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts of Chana w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013. The CCEA declared the MSP for kharif pulses. The MSP of the MSP of Tur has been raised by ` 450 to ` 4,300/qtl, moong by ` 100 to ` 4,500/qtl while Urad has been kept unchanged at ` 4,300/qtl. Sowing of the summer kharif pulses has been reported at 18.37 lakh hectares as on July 5, 2013 compared to 3.99 lakh ha last year. Sowing of kharif pulses was adversely impacted last year and was down by 16 percent due to deficient rains.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX July'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on July 9, 2013 % change Last 3120 3061 Prev day 0.61 1.26 WoW 0.66 1.22 MoM -5.44 -3.98
Source: Reuters

YoY -32.34 -32.32

Spread Matrix
Closing 3120.45 3061 3141 3202 19-Jul-13 -59.45 0 -

as on July 9, 2013 20-Aug-13 20.55 80 0 20-Sep-13 81.55 141 61 0 as on July 8, 2013 Stocks as on 6th July 81705 58678 11423 151806 Qty in Process 978 235 10 1223

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 8th July 81835 58900 11423 152158 Qty in Process 259 2084 707 3050

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. According to third advance Estimates released on 3 May 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 18 mn tn, up 5.76% compared to previous year. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 4.03% lower at 5.95 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 9.25% higher at 12.05 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. However, chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record output of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Erratic weather in M.P. lowered the yield.
rd

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX August contract

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of April 2013 declined to 0.04 lakh metric tonnes compared to 0.11 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana is expected to trade higher today extending yesterdays gains. A pick up in the spot market demand coupled with expectations that the government may take some measures to restrict further fall in the prices may also support an upside in the prices. However, good arrivals coupled with improved sowing of kharif pulses may cap sharp upside in the prices.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Aug Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for July 10, 2013 Resistance 3175-3205

3075-3110

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 10, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean October futures traded on a positive note yesterday and settled 1.72% higher on account of strong demand for the bean from millers on the back of meal demand. Tight supplies of the bean also supported an upside in the prices. However, higher area under soybean cultivation compared to last year coupled with a strong Rupee capped sharp gains. As per the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, India's oil meal exports rose to 348,946 tonnes in June from 311,089 tonnes a year earlier. Soy meal exports rose to 213,564 tonnes in June, the third month of the 2013/14 fiscal year, from 180,987 tonnes a year ago. India's oil meal exports in the 2012/13 fiscal year fell 14.3 percent from a year earlier to 4.8 million tonnes. Area under Oilseed cultivation stood at 110.27 lakh ha as on 5th July 2013 against 26.52 lakh hectares during the same period last year. In th Maharashtra, soybean was sown in 23.68 lakh ha as on 4 July as against 20.07 lakh ha sown during the same period last year. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 mn tonnes. IMDs forecasts of normal monsoon have raised hopes of better output next season too. International Markets Soybean November Futures on the CBOT settled 1.9% higher on Tuesday on concerns that expectations of hotter and dried weather in the US Midwest may affect the crop. Good export demand also supported prices. Chinas June Soybean imports increased by 36% to 6.93 mn tn against 5.1 mn tn in May. USDA in its June supply/demand and quarterly stocks reports confirmed that the U.S. supply of soybean was at a 9-year low. USDA will release updated supply and demand data in its July report, due on Thursday, July 11. USDA raised planting estimates to 77.728 mn acres against March forecast of 77.126 mn acres.

Market Highlights

as on July 9, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.45 1.64 1.03 0.25 0.14 0.58 2.59 2.56 0.71 1.71

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT July'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX July '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3781 3724 1613 3505 3458

MoM -1.95 -0.84 5.56 0.71 -1.45

YoY -10.2 -13.1 -3.11 -15 -16.1

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3781 Spot 19-Jul-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 3723.5 3192 3189.5 0 -531.5 0 19-Jul-13 -57.5 18-Oct-13 -589

as on July 9, 2013 20-Nov-13 -591.5 -534 -2.5 0 as on July 9, 2013 20-Aug-13 7 54 0 20-Sep-13 53 100 46 0 as on July 8, 2013 Qty in Process 245 0 0 245 as on July 8, 2013 Qty in Process 0 273 10 0 203 40 0 526 NCDEX October contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3505 3458 3512 3558 19-Jul-13 -47 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 8th July 16577 921 331 17829 Stocks as on 8th July 3040 4549 20638 634 63075 5193 1801 98930 Qty in Process 264 0 0 264 Qty in Process 0 0 50 0 442 40 0 532 Stocks as on 6th July 16987 921 331 18239 Stocks as on 6th July 3040 4549 20628 634 63045 5193 1841 98930

Outlook
Soybean is expected to trade higher due to tight supplies coupled with good demand from the millers on the back of strong soy meal export demand. However, higher sowing and improved crop prospects may cap sharp gains in the prices.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed August futures traded on a positive note tracking positive oilseeds and settled 0.83% higher on Tuesday. However, higher supplies in the domestic markets coupled with an increase in sowing area under kharif oilseeds capped sharp gains. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Positive oilseeds, declining arrivals at lower prices and good demand are expected to support prices. However, overall trend in mustard seed remain bearish amidst higher production this season.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 10, 2013 Support 3125-3160 3460-3485 Resistance 3220-3250 3535-3560

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 10, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Refine soy oil traded on a positive note yesterday due to improvement in the demand ahead of the festive season as well as positive soybean prices. However, an appreciation in the Rupee capped the upside. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts of Refined Soy oil w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013. Soy oil prices gained last week on account of sharp depreciation in the Indian rupee coupled with firm international palm oil futures. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 40.2% to 917,964 tn in May, after dropping for 3 months, mainly due to surge in palm oil imports. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 693.00 698.15 47.08 2396 513.00 Prev day -0.03 1.27 0.15 1.14 -0.10

as on July 9, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTJuly'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia July '13 Fut CPO-MCX- July '13 Futures

WoW 1.72 3.74 0.34 2.70 3.32

MoM -1.41 -0.29 -2.99 -0.87 4.04

YoY -10.47 -10.85 -13.50 -23.35 -10.89

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 693 698.15 688.65 676.8 19-Jul-13 5.15 0 20-Aug-13 -4.35 -9.5 0 -

as on July 9, 2013 20-Sep-13 -16.2 -21.35 -11.85 0 as on July 9, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil may continue to trade higher extending yesterdays gains on the back of festive demand. However, prices will also track the Rupee movement in the intraday.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Jul-13 31-Aug-13 30-Sept-13 Closing 513 514.1 512.1 31-Jul-13 0 31-Aug-13 1.1 0 -

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO traded on a positive note yesterday tracking higher edible oil prices in the domestic as well as international markets ahead of the festive season. However, Rupee appreciation pressurized prices and settled marginally lower by 0.1%. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for July, up from 9% in June. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during July 1-10 declined 15.9% at 352,375 tn as against 419,035 tn during June 1-10. Exports in June rose 7 percent due to Ramadan demand. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports hit a record high in May by jumping 47.5 percent from April. The world's top buyer of vegetable oils imported 373,837 tonnes of refined palm oil in May. The jump in refined palm oil purchases will raise the clamour for increasing import duties to protect local oilseed growers and refiners against cheaper supplies from major exporters Indonesia and Malaysia. But the Indian government is yet to pay any heed as inflation has only just reached comfortable levels.

30-Sept-13 -0.9 -2 0 NCDEX August contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Outlook
CPO prices are expected to trade higher today due to demand ahead of Ramadan. Increase in export tax by Indonesia may also support an upside in the prices. However, an appreciation in the Rupee today may cap gains and keep prices under check.

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX July contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Aug NCDEX Futures CPO MCX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 10, 2013 Support 680-684 506-510 Resistance 693-697 516-519

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 10, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera Futures traded on a positive to bullish note and settled 1.66% higher on Tuesday on account of good overseas demand. However, good rains in the main jeera growing regions capped sharp gains. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. Exports have been reported mainly to Singapore, Europe and Dubai. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1 percent Jeera of Indian origin is being offered in Singapore at $2,325 tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13694 13543 5616 5726 Prev day 0.73 1.50 -0.77 -0.80

as on July 9, 2013 % Change WoW -0.06 1.84 -4.09 -4.95 MoM 1.64 2.89 -0.89 3.06 YoY -8.50 -9.97 35.14 25.79

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Fut Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX July '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 13693.8 13542.5 13812.5 14085 19-Jul-13 -151.3 0 20-Aug-13 118.7 270 0 -

as on July 9, 2013 20-Sep-13 391.2 542.5 272.5 0 as on July 9, 2013 19-Jul-13 109.7 0 20-Aug-13 183.7 74 0 20-Sep-13 263.7 154 80 0 as on July 8, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 6th July Process 1207 7301 8508 5922 NCDEX August contract 6 180 186 775

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 6,000 bags on Tuesday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 5616.3 5726 5800 5880

Outlook
Jeera is expected to continue to trade with higher today on account of export demand as well as declining arrivals may support prices. However, good supplies may cap upside. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep the prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 8th July 1210 7409 8619 6120 Qty in Process 0 9 9 771

Turmeric
Turmeric futures declined by 1.66% yesterday due to lower than expected demand coupled with higher than normal sowing. However, local demand from North India was reported which limited the downside.

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals Nizamabad mandi were reported at 5,000 bags while Erode remained closed on Tuesday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is reported at 0.18 lakh ha as on 3rd July, 2013 as against 0.1 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.12 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric is expected trade on a mixed note today. Improvement in the sowing as well as good monsoon progress may cap the upside and pressurize prices at higher levels. Huge carryover stocks are also likely to keep prices under check. However, good overseas as well as demand from North India may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Chart Jeera

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX August contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Aug Futures Turmeric NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for July 10, 2013

Support 13580-13700 5674-5740 Resistance 13950-14070 5878-5946

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 10, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar Futures remained under downside pressure as the industry body raised the output expectations due to improvement in the weather conditions in the sugarcane state of Maharashtra. Weak demand from the bulk consumers and sufficient supplies also added to the downside pressure. However, the downside remained limited as the government notified its decision to increase the import duty on sugar to 15% from 10%. Demand from the bulk consumers such as Ice cream and beverage manufacturers generally decline during the monsoon as rainfall brings down temperature. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation and with strong demand in Gulf and African states due to the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan. (Source: Reuters dated 1st July, 2013) According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 44.55 lakh ha as compared to 46.78 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX July '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE July '13 Fut `/qtl 2980 `/qtl 495.2 $/tonne 363.11 $/tonne 0.06 -0.16 -0.30 Last 3064

as on July 9, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.00 -0.15 -0.43 -0.08 -1.15 MoM 0.17 -2.61 2.87 -0.55 YoY -3.15 -1.65 -23.36 -28.02

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3064.15 2980 3051 3092 19-Jul-13 -84.15 0 20-Aug-13 -13.15 71 0 -

as on July 9, 2013 20-Sep-13 27.85 112 41 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. According to ISMA, Indias Sugar production between October -April stood at 24.52 mn tn, lower by 3 percent during the same period last year. Maharashtras production dipped 10% to 8 mn tn while production in Uttar Pradesh increased by 7% to 7.43 mn tn. India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at higher against the domestic consumption of around 22.5 mln tn for 2012-13.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 8th July 2548 7797 1022 1228 12595 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

as on July 8, 2013 Stocks as on 6th July 2548 7797 1022 1228 12595 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX August contract

Global Sugar Updates

ICE Sugar futures settled 0.06% higher on Tuesday on account of short coverings. Prices have declined due to abundant supplies from Brazil coupled with expectations of a dry July which may boost the harvesting and crushing. Sugar production in Brazil's main cane-growing region which was up by almost 59% till May fell in first half of June because wet weather held up crushing. Since April 1 to 15 June, mills have produced 7.39 mn tn of sugar, up 51%. Mills have used 58.1% of the cane crush for ethanol since the start of the season - up sharply from 54.4% at this time last year - with the rest used for sugar. Prices have declined sharply over the past few months and touched three years low last week due to three back to back years of sugar surplus coupled with supplies from Brazil.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar is expected to trade with a positive bias today as increase in import duty and reports of fresh export deals may support prices. However, good monsoon progress along with weakness in the international markets may cap the gains over the short term.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Aug NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for July 10, 2013 Support 3034-3043 Resistance 3060-3068

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 10, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
Cotton prices corrected from higher levels on account of profit taking coupled with a strong Rupee and settled 0.3% lower. However, strong demand for cotton from yarn manufacturers supported prices at lower levels. The regulator has reduced position limit in cotton futures to 1.95 lk th bales for member levels and 65,000 bales at client level wef 5 July 2013. The CCEA has increased the MSP of Cotton by `100 to `3,700/qtl for medium staple and `4,000/qtl for long staple. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the seaosn (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) is reported at 318.62, down 2.2 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1053 20010 83.9 92.55

as on July 9, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.52 0.14 -0.30 2.46 0.08 0.82 0.33 -0.16 MoM YoY 0.14 #N/A 5.32 16.34 -1.13 18.44 -0.70 11.17
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 28-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 20010 20810 20410 28-Jun-13 0

as on July 9, 2013 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 800 0 400 -400 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting has been reported at 81.73 lakh ha as against 46.61 lakh ha during the same period last year. Cotton acreage has seen a significant jump over last year in Maharashtra from 25.33 lakh ha last year to 26.98 lakh ha this year. In AP, 10.9 lh was sown as against 9 lakh ha last year.

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on 8th July 12300 5900 117300 24300 900 100 160800

as on July 8, 2013 Stocks as on 6th July 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
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Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton futures settled marginally higher by 0.08% on Tuesday. Prices have risen to two week high and higher on account of drought in Texas, the largest cotton growing belt in US. ICAC has lowered projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. Reports indicate that textile mills in China are seeking permission to import more cotton. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates. ICE Futures U.S. certified stocks are at three-year highs of 600,000 bales. But almost a fifth of that total was already slated to be delivered against the nearby contract when it expires on July 9. (Reuters). This is Large enough to deplete swelling exchange stocks 20 percent or more, and tighten supplies heading into the new 2013/14 crop year. There are expectations that Brazil may import around 2 lakh tonnes of cotton by the end of the year due to demand from the textile industry.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX July contract

Outlook
Cotton is expected to trade higher today on account of demand form the yarn and textile industry coupled with ICACs estimates of lower global production. However, higher planting in India may pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX July Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for July 10, 2013 Support 1044-1048 19860-19940 Resistance 1058-1064 20100-20170

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Commodities Daily Report

`
Wednesday| July 10, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar seed October Futures settled 0.53% higher on account of short coverings as well as bargain buying while Guar gum declined and settled 0.85% lower on Tuesday on reports of improved rains, higher sowing and comfortable supplies. Since the resumption of Guarseed and Guar gum contracts on the futures platform, prices are on a downward trend on account of host of factors like bumper summer harvest in Gujarat, smooth monsoon progress and expected higher sowing.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX July 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX July13 Fut `/qtl 7150 `/qtl 20151 `/qtl 20360 `/qtl -0.20 -0.95 0.14 Last Prev day 7129 -1.38

as on July 9, 2013 % change WoW 0.50 2.58 0.15 2.98 MoM -6.07 -5.17 -9.99 -10.31 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this years monsoon has so far upto 8th July has been 21% above the LPA. For the first time this year, monsoon hit almost every part of Rajasthan on Monday. Western Rajasthan, which remained dry till now, also received mild to moderate showers. (Source: Times of India). Light to moderate rain occurred at many places in Ajmer, Jaipur, Bharatpur, Kota, Alwar, Karauli, Bhilwara and other districts. Likewise mild showers were witnessed in the western districts including Jodhpur, Jaisalmer, Barmer, Churu and Bikaner. Bikaner witnessed a maximum rain as it recorded a rain of 90 mm. The Met office in its forecast said that southwest monsoon will gain momentum in the next two days. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 27 June, 2013 stood at 3.4 lakh hectares compared with 46000 hectares sown last year.
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Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 7129.15 7150 5690 5560 19-Jul-13 20.85 0 20-Aug-13 -1439.15 -1460 0 -

as on July 9, 2013 20-Sep-13 -1569.15 -1590 -130 0 as on July 9, 2013 20-Aug-13 -3831.4 -4040 0 20-Sep-13 -4091.4 -4300 -260 0 as on July 8, 2013 Stocks as on 6 July 59 81
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NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 20151.4 20360 16320 16060 19-Jul-13 208.6 0 -

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Stocks as on 8th July 59 121 Qty in Process 0 0

Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Qty in Process 0 0

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
With monsoon to gain momentum further in the largest guar growing state of Rajasthan, Guar prices may decline in the coming days. Higher sowing and thereby higher output may keep sentiments weak in the near term.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 10, 2013 Support 5560-5630 5540-5610 15870-16100 15900-16150 Resistance 5770-5830 5750-5810 16500-16720 16550-16750
Source: Telequote www.angelcommodities.com