Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 09, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 09, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Good rains increase kharif crop sowing
A significantly better monsoon in most parts of the country has facilitated kharif sowing. The area under kharif coverage as of July 5 jumped by 87 per cent compared to last year, according to the agriculture ministry. The area under all major kharif crops such as rice, pulses, cotton and oilseeds is well above the corresponding area last year. For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this year's monsoon is 27 per cent above the long period average or LPA (as of July 3). This has helped enable timely sowing. Kharif sowing was delayed last year due to the late monsoon. (Source: Business Today)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 8, 2013
WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19325 5812 60.70 103.14 1234.9

-0.88 -0.96 0.77 -0.08 1.81

-1.29 -1.48 2.21 5.26 -1.67

-0.54 -1.18 6.36 7.40 -10.71

10.29 9.30 9.54 22.13 -21.76

.Source: Reuters

FCI to sell 9.5mt wheat to bulk users in open market

The Food Corporation of India(FCI) plans to sell over 9.5 million tonnewheat to bulk consumers in the open marketin an effort to bring down domestic prices. It will sell wheat under the open market sale scheme (OMSS) through tendering with a base price of Rs 1,500 a quintal. Meanwhile, Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia will meet food minister KV Thomas and senior FCIofficials on Tuesday to discuss plans to set up two million tonne of silo storage through public-private partnership spread over 42 locations across 10 states. Of the total supplies of 29.2 million tonne of wheat this season (2013-14), government agencies and the FCI have procured 25.08 million tonne till July 8. (Source: Economic Times)

Hilly, NE states might get more sugar subsidy

The food ministry might raise the sugar subsidy for the two hill states of the north and for the northeast. After the partial decontrol of the sector, with an end to the system of each mill having to deliver a specified quantity for supply through ration shops, these states had complained of logistical problems in lifting the required amounts themselves from the market. Theyd urged the food ministry to assign this procurement to government-owned Food Corporation of India. Mills had kept away from bidding for contracts to deliver the sugar. Himachal Pradesh invited bids to deliver sugar at 24 identified depots in the state. The mills kept away. Currently, at an average subsidy of Rs 18.50 a kg, the Centre is set to bear a subsidy burden of Rs 5,300 crore in 2013-14, a significant rise from Rs 2,600 crore a year before. (Source: Business Standard)

Cotton body ups crop estimate

The Cotton Association of India has marginally increased it cotton crop estimate for the 2012-13 season ending September to 355.25 lakh bales (lb) against 352 lb estimated last month. The projected balance sheet drawn by the association for 2012-13 estimated total cotton supply at 423.46 lb, while the domestic consumption is estimated at 283 lb and export at 95 lb. This leaves a closing stock of 45.46 lb. Arrivals as on June 30 were put at 344.75 lb. The timely rain and fast progress in sowing bodes well for the crop output next season, said an association press release on Monday. (Source: Business Line)

China's ministry sharply raises forecast for July soybean imports to 8.81 mln t
China is expected to see 7.21 million metric tons (tonnes) of soybean imports delivered to ports in July, significantly higher than the earlier forecast of 4.3 million tonnes, according to the latest report from the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) released Monday. The ministry also estimates the country's June soybean imports at 8.81 million tonnes. The report is based on importers' shipments from June 16 to 30 (Source: Reuters)

Food Ministry in favour of 7.5% import duty on pulses

The Food Ministry is in favour of a 7.5 per cent import duty on pulses against 10 per cent suggested by the Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP) to boost the domestic production. India, the largest producer of pulses, imports about three million tonnes of lentils every year to fulfil its domestic demand. Pulses imports are being permitted at zero duty since 2006 to ensure domestic availability. The import duty hike is necessary at this point to protect the domestic farmers because imported pulses like tur have become cheaper compared to domestic pulses, especially after the hike in the minimum support price (MSP). The Government has made some progress in increasing the pulses production through higher MSP in the last few years and the Agriculture Ministry is concerned over pulses sowing if cheap imports flood the market and distort prices. According to industry data, traders are now importing tur at Rs 3,300-3,500 per quintal from Myanmar, while domestic prices are ruling at Rs 4,300 per quintal. CACP, which recommends support price for agriculture commodities, had recommended 10 per cent import duty on pulses in its report on kharif 2013-14 crops to boost the local output. (Source: Business Line)

Rain pours relief into farms in Jalandhar area

Farmers in Jalandhar area are happy after the downpour on Monday morning. From growers of water guzzling paddy to maize, all are feeling relieved as they would not have to depend much on tubewells to irrigate their farms. "This rain has proved beneficial for all crops. For maize, it could have been harmful if it had continued for long time and could have led to water-logging in the fields," said Jalandhar-based deputy director of agriculture Naresh Gulati. He said that against the target of bringing 10,500 hectares under maize cultivation, around 9,700 hectares has already been covered in Jalandhar district and more sowing was expected. (Source: Times of India)

Edible oils steam on weak rupee

Weak domestic currency helped edible oils gain on Monday despite subdued demand on the oils and oilseeds market. As stronger dollar makes import costlier, local refineries increased their rates for imported oils by Rs 12-15 for 10 kg that pushed up soyabean refined oil by Rs 10, sunflower oil by Rs 10-15 and palmolein by Rs 7 in Mumbai markets. Rapeseed oil inched up by Rs 5. With outlook being positive for the kharif crop, groundnut and cotton oil ruled steady. (Source: Business Line)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 09, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures traded on a mixed note yesterday. Prices declined on account of higher sowing of the kharif pulses. However, prices recovered in the second half of the session and settled 0.47% higher due to bargain buying emerging at lower levels. Also, there was some local demand seen, which further supported the prices. The food ministry is in favor to impose duty on imports to curb excessive inflows. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts of Chana w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013. The CCEA declared the MSP for kharif pulses. The MSP of the MSP of Tur has been raised by ` 450 to ` 4,300/qtl, moong by ` 100 to ` 4,500/qtl while Urad has been kept unchanged at ` 4,300/qtl. Sowing of the summer kharif pulses has been reported at 18.37 lakh hectares as on July 5, 2013 compared to 3.99 lakh ha last year. Sowing of kharif pulses was adversely impacted last year and was down by 16 percent due to deficient rains.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX July'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on July 8, 2013 % change Last 3102 3023 Prev day 1.04 0.47 WoW -0.43 -2.55 MoM -4.85 -4.31
Source: Reuters

YoY -30.93 -33.49

Spread Matrix
Closing 3101.65 3023 3076 3136 19-Jul-13 -78.65 0 -

as on July 8, 2013 20-Aug-13 -25.65 53 0 20-Sep-13 34.35 113 60 0 as on July 6, 2013 Stocks as on 5th July 81486 56970 11344 147800 Qty in Process 348 1256 130 1374

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 6th July 81705 58678 11423 151806 Qty in Process 978 235 10 1223

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. According to third advance Estimates released on 3 May 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 18 mn tn, up 5.76% compared to previous year. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 4.03% lower at 5.95 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 9.25% higher at 12.05 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. However, chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record output of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Erratic weather in M.P. lowered the yield.
rd

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX August contract

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of April 2013 declined to 0.04 lakh metric tonnes compared to 0.11 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana is expected to trade on a mixed note today. Good arrivals coupled with improved sowing of kharif pulses keep prices under check. However, prices find support at lower levels due to bargain buying emerging at lower levels. A pick up in the local demand may also support prices. Expectations government may take some measure to restrict further fall in the prices may also support an upside in the prices.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Aug Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for July 09, 2013 Resistance 3105-3135

3010-3040

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 09, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean October futures opened higher due to a weak Rupee which touched a fresh all time low. However, prices corrected in the later part of the day as the Rupee recovered from its lows. Also, higher area under soybean cultivation compared to last year also pressurized prices. However, the spot remained higher due to tight supplies in the spot market and settled marginally higher by 0.08%, while the Futures settled 0.48% lower. As per the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, India's oil meal exports rose to 348,946 tonnes in June from 311,089 tonnes a year earlier. Soy meal exports rose to 213,564 tonnes in June, the third month of the 2013/14 fiscal year, from 180,987 tonnes a year ago. India's oil meal exports in the 2012/13 fiscal year fell 14.3 percent from a year earlier to 4.8 million tonnes. Area under Oilseed cultivation stood at 110.27 lakh ha as on 5th July 2013 against 26.52 lakh hectares during the same period last year. In th Maharashtra, soybean was sown in 23.68 lakh ha as on 4 July as against 20.07 lakh ha sown during the same period last year. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 mn tonnes. IMDs forecasts of normal monsoon have raised hopes of better output next season too. International Markets Soybean Futures on the CBOT settled 1.34% higher on Monday on account supply tightness. The crop condition is reported at 67% good to excellent as against 40% a year ago. Good export demand also supported prices. USDA in its June supply/demand and quarterly stocks reports confirmed that the U.S. supply of soybean was at a 9-year low. USDA will release updated supply and demand data in its July report, due on Thursday, July 11. USDA raised planting estimates to 77.728 mn acres against March forecast of 77.126 mn acres. As per USDA weekly crop progress report, 96 pct soybean planting is completed vs 92 pct a wk ago and 98 pct 5 yr average.

Market Highlights

as on July 8, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.08 0.48 0.37 1.34 0.46 -0.26 1.00 2.47 0.99 0.73

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT July'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX July '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3764 3686

MoM -2.59 -2.10 5.30 0.99 -1.88

YoY -8.51 11.35 -0.65 13.79 15.11

USc/Bsh
`/qtl

1609 3500 3438

`/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3764 Spot 19-Jul-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 3685.5 3138 3139.5 0 -547.5 0 19-Jul-13 -78.5 18-Oct-13 -626

as on July 8, 2013 20-Nov-13 -624.5 -546 1.5 0 as on July 8, 2013 20-Aug-13 -17 45 0 20-Sep-13 30 92 47 0 as on July 6, 2013 Qty in Process 162 0 0 162 as on July 6, 2013 Qty in Process 0 294 70 0 906 40 0 1310 NCDEX October contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3500 3438 3483 3530 19-Jul-13 -62 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 6th July 16987 921 331 18239 Stocks as on 6th July 3040 4549 20628 634 63045 5193 1841 98930 Qty in Process 245 0 0 245 Qty in Process 0 273 10 0 203 40 0 526 Stocks as on 5th July 20467 1285 401 22153 Stocks as on 5th July 3040 4175 20508 634 62362 5153 1841 97713

Outlook
Soybean is expected to trade on a mixed note. Tight supplies in the near term in both the domestic as well as international markets may support prices. However, higher sowing and improved crop prospects may exert downside pressure on the prices.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed August futures opened higher tracking positive oilseeds, corrected in the end on account of higher supplies in the domestic markets and increase in sowing area under kharif oilseeds. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Outlook
Overall trend in mustard seed remain bearish amidst higher production this season. However, declining arrivals at lower prices levels and good demand may support prices in the near term.

Technical Chart Soybean

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 09, 2013 Support 3100-3120 3445-3465 Resistance 3712-3205 3500-3520

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 09, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Refine soy oil opened higher due to a sharp depreciation in the Rupee, but corrected from higher levels as the Rupee appreciated in the latter part of the day and settled marginally lower by 0.01%. Weak soybean prices also pressurized prices.. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts of Refined Soy oil w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013. Soy oil prices gained last week on account of sharp depreciation in the Indian rupee coupled with firm international palm oil futures. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 40.2% to 917,964 tn in May, after dropping for 3 months, mainly due to surge in palm oil imports. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 693.20 689.40 47.01 2369 513.50 Prev day 0.50 0.21 -0.47 -0.29 0.08

as on July 8, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTJuly'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia July '13 Fut CPO-MCX- July '13 Futures

WoW 1.35 2.56 0.34 1.37 2.39

MoM -1.66 -1.87 -3.13 -1.99 3.70

YoY -9.20 -10.66 -11.75 -23.43 -9.77

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 693.2 689.4 683.4 673 19-Jul-13 -3.8 0 20-Aug-13 -9.8 -6 0 -

as on July 8, 2013 20-Sep-13 -20.2 -16.4 -10.4 0 as on July 8, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil is expected to open lower today due to a sharp appreciation in the Rupee and weak international markets. However, prices will track the the Rupee movement in the intraday.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Jul-13 31-Aug-13 30-Sept-13 Closing 513.5 514.6 511.9 31-Jul-13 0 31-Aug-13 1.1 0 -

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO opened higher due a weak Rupee. However, prices corrected from higher levels as the Rupee recovered from the lows and settled marginally higher by 0.08%. Weak KLCE CPO Futures also pressurized prices. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for July, up from 9% in June. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products in June rose 7 percent to 1,350,311 tonnes from 1,262,281 tonnes shipped during May as buyers stocked up for Ramadan that falls in July. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports hit a record high in May by jumping 47.5 percent from April. The world's top buyer of vegetable oils imported 373,837 tonnes of refined palm oil in May. The jump in refined palm oil purchases will raise the clamour for increasing import duties to protect local oilseed growers and refiners against cheaper supplies from major exporters Indonesia and Malaysia. But the Indian government is yet to pay any heed as inflation has only just reached comfortable levels.

30-Sept-13 -1.6 -2.7 0 NCDEX August contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX July contract

Outlook
CPO prices are expected to trade higher today due to demand ahead of Ramadan. Increase in export tax by Indonesia may also support an upside in the prices however, an appreciation in the Rupee today may cap gains and keep prices under check.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Aug NCDEX Futures CPO MCX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 09, 2013 Support 674-680 506-510 Resistance 687-691 517-520
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 09, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera Futures traded with a positive bias today and settled 0.33% higher due to good overseas demand. However, higher than expected arrivals coupled with good rains in the main jeera growing regions capped sharp gains. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. Exports have been reported mainly to Singapore, Europe and Dubai. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1 percent Jeera of Indian origin is being offered in Singapore at $2,300 tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13595 13343 5660 5772 Prev day -0.33 0.26 0.00 0.63

as on July 8, 2013 % Change WoW -0.44 -0.11 -1.55 -5.03 MoM 0.67 1.60 -0.12 4.04 YoY -5.44 -8.35 43.20 31.90

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Fut Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX July '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 13595 13342.5 13587.5 13862.5 19-Jul-13 -252.5 0 20-Aug-13 -7.5 245 0 -

as on July , 2013 20-Sep-13 267.5 520 275 0 as on July 8, 2013 19-Jul-13 112.2 0 20-Aug-13 238.2 126 0 20-Sep-13 340.2 228 102 0 as on July 6, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 5th July Process 1156 7589 8745 5754 NCDEX August contract 57 279 336 209

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 8,000 bags on Monday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 5659.8 5772 5898 6000

Outlook
Jeera is expected to trade with a positive bias in the intraday. Export demand as well as declining arrivals is expected to support prices. However, good supplies may cap upside. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep the prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 6th July 1207 7301 8508 5922 Qty in Process 6 180 186 775

Turmeric
Turmeric futures traded on a positive note yesterday extending previous days gains on account of good export enquiries. However, higher than normal sowing capped the upside in the prices. Also, weak upcountry demand, poor quality arrivals and rains have capped the gains. The spot remained closed while the August Futures settled 1.06% higher on Monday.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi were reported at 3,000 bags and 8,000 bags respectively on Friday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is reported at 0.18 lakh ha as on 3rd July, 2013 as against 0.1 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.12 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric is expected trade with a positive bias supported by good overseas demand. However, improvement in the sowing as well as good monsoon progress may cap the upside and pressurize prices at higher levels. Huge carryover stocks are also likely to keep prices under check.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX August contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Aug Futures Turmeric NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for July 09, 2013

Support 13380-13490 5730-5810 Resistance 13680-13790 5962-6040

Source: Telequote www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 09, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar Futures traded on a mixed note and settled marginally lower by 0.1%. The governments decision to increase the import duty on sugar to 15% from 10% has supported the prices. The date of imposition of duty is yet to be decided by the Finance Ministry. However, weak demand from the bulk consumers and sufficient supplies capped the upside. Also, good rains in the sugarcane regions has eased cane crop concerns. Demand from the bulk consumers such as Ice cream and beverage manufacturers generally decline during the monsoon as rainfall brings down temperature. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation and with strong demand in Gulf and African states due to the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan. (Source: Reuters dated 1st July, 2013) According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 44.55 lakh ha as compared to 46.78 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX July '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE July '13 Fut `/qtl 2989 `/qtl 496 $/tonne 362.89 $/tonne 0.43 -0.02 -0.17 Last 3064

as on July 8, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.08 0.19 -0.60 -0.76 -2.16 MoM 0.09 -2.61 3.03 -0.61 YoY -3.07 -2.26 -22.51 -26.61

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3064.3 2989 3064 3107 19-Jul-13 -75.3 0 20-Aug-13 -0.3 75 0 -

as on July 8, 2013 20-Sep-13 42.7 118 43 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. According to ISMA, Indias Sugar production between October -April stood at 24.52 mn tn, lower by 3 percent during the same period last year. Maharashtras production dipped 10% to 8 mn tn while production in Uttar Pradesh increased by 7% to 7.43 mn tn. India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at higher against the domestic consumption of around 22.5 mln tn for 2012-13.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 6th July 2548 7797 1022 1228 12595 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

as on July 6, 2013 Stocks as on 5th July 2448 7797 1022 1228 12495 Qty in Process 250 0 0 0 250

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX August contract

Global Sugar Updates

ICE Sugar futures settled 0.43% higher on Monday on account of short coverings. Prices have declined due to abundant supplies from Brazil coupled with expectations of a dry July which may boost the harvesting and crushing. Sugar production in Brazil's main cane-growing region which was up by almost 59% till May fell in first half of June because wet weather held up crushing. Since April 1 to 15 June, mills have produced 7.39 mn tn of sugar, up 51%. Mills have used 58.1% of the cane crush for ethanol since the start of the season - up sharply from 54.4% at this time last year - with the rest used for sugar. Prices have declined sharply over the past few months and touched three years low last week due to three back to back years of sugar surplus coupled with supplies from Brazil.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar is expected to trade with a positive bias today as increase in import duty and reports of fresh export deals may support prices. However, good monsoon progress along with weakness in the international markets may cap the gains over the short term.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Aug NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for July 09, 2013 Support 3040-3055 Resistance 3080-3095

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Commodities Daily Report

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Tuesday| July 09, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
Cotton prices settled 0.6% higher on account of strong demand for cotton from yarn manufacturers along with weakness in the Indian rupee. The regulator has reduced position limit in cotton futures to 1.95 lk th bales for member levels and 65,000 bales at client level wef 5 July 2013. The CCEA has increased the MSP of Cotton by `100 to `3,700/qtl for medium staple and `4,000/qtl for long staple. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the seaosn (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) is reported at 318.62, down 2.2 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1058.5 20070 83.83 92.25

as on July 8, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.00 0.33 0.60 3.24 0.18 -0.55 -0.81 1.04 MoM YoY 0.33 #N/A 5.85 19.04 -1.21 18.44 -1.02 10.81
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 28-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 20070 20860 20530 28-Jun-13 0

as on July 8, 2013 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 790 0 460 -330 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting has been reported at 81.73 lakh ha as against 46.61 lakh ha during the same period last year. Cotton acreage has seen a significant jump over last year in Maharashtra from 25.33 lakh ha last year to 26.98 lakh ha this year. In AP, 10.9 lh was sown as against 9 lakh ha last year.

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Stocks as on 6th July 12300 5900 117300 24300 900 100 160800

as on July 6, 2013 Stocks as on 5th July 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
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Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total

Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton futures rose to two week high and higher on account of drought in Texas, the largest cotton growing belt in US. ICAC has lowered projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. Reports indicate that textile mills in China are seeking permission to import more cotton. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates. ICE Futures U.S. certified stocks are at three-year highs of 600,000 bales. But almost a fifth of that total was already slated to be delivered against the nearby contract when it expires on July 9. (Reuters). This is Large enough to deplete swelling exchange stocks 20 percent or more, and tighten supplies heading into the new 2013/14 crop year. There are expectations that Brazil may import around 2 lakh tonnes of cotton by the end of the year due to demand from the textile industry.

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX July contract

Outlook
Cotton is expected to trade higher today on account of weakness in the Indian rupee coupled with ICACs estimates of lower global production. However, higher planting in India may pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX July Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for July 09, 2013 Support 1050-1055 19850-19950 Resistance 1065-1070 20140-20250
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Tuesday| July 09, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar seed as well as Guar gum July Futures settled 3.2% and 2.25% lower on Monday on reports of improved rains, higher sowing and comfortable supplies. Since the resumption of Guarseed and Guar gum contracts on the futures platform, prices are on a downward trend on account of host of factors like bumper summer harvest in Gujarat, smooth monsoon progress and expected higher sowing.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX July 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX July13 Fut `/qtl 7140 `/qtl 20344 `/qtl 20400 `/qtl -2.25 -2.80 -3.25 Last Prev day 7229 -2.50

as on July 8, 2013 % change WoW 0.05 0.71 -0.24 0.25 MoM -1.03 -1.38 -4.98 -6.42 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this years monsoon has so far upto 8th July has been 21% above the LPA. For the first time this year, monsoon hit almost every part of Rajasthan on Monday. Western Rajasthan, which remained dry till now, also received mild to moderate showers. (Source: Times of India). Light to moderate rain occurred at many places in Ajmer, Jaipur, Bharatpur, Kota, Alwar, Karauli, Bhilwara and other districts. Likewise mild showers were witnessed in the western districts including Jodhpur, Jaisalmer, Barmer, Churu and Bikaner. Bikaner witnessed a maximum rain as it recorded a rain of 90 mm. The Met office in its forecast said that southwest monsoon will gain momentum in the next two days. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 27 June, 2013 stood at 3.4 lakh hectares compared with 46000 hectares sown last year.
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Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 7228.55 7140 5660 5580 19-Jul-13 -88.55 0 20-Aug-13 -1568.55 -1480 0 -

as on July 8, 2013 20-Sep-13 -1648.55 -1560 -80 0 as on July 8, 2013 20-Aug-13 -3884.45 -3940 0 20-Sep-13 -4054.45 -4110 -170 0 as on July 6, 2013 Stocks as on 5 July 59 81
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NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 20344.45 20400 16460 16290 19-Jul-13 55.55 0 -

Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Stocks as on 6th July 59 111 Qty in Process 0 0

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Qty in Process 0 0

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
With monsoon to gain momentum further in the largest guar growing state of Rajasthan, Guar prices may decline in the coming days. Higher sowing and thereby higher output may keep sentiments weak in the near term.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 09, 2013 Support 5450-5550 5440-5540 15950-16200 15980-16220 Resistance 5760-5870 5750-5860 16780-17100 16770-17070
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com