Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| July 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Friday| July 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Govt to hike import duty on sugar to 15%
The Government has decided to increase the import duty on sugar to 15 per cent from 10 per cent at present to curb cheaper inflow of the sweetener into the country. Food Minister K.V. Thomas said the decision to hike import duty was taken after a meeting with Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar and Finance Minister P. Chidambaram on Thursday. The Finance Ministry will decide from when the duty hike will be implemented, he added. The latest move follows representations by sugar co-operatives and farmers to hike import duty as a bearish trend in realisations has not only hurt the millers but has also delayed cane payments to farmers. (Source: Business Line)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 4, 2013
WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19411 5837 60.08 101.12 1249.4

1.22 1.14 -0.25 -0.12 -0.22

2.83 2.72 -0.20 4.19 3.14

-0.69 -1.39 6.34 8.37 -10.57

11.16 10.08 10.14 15.35 -22.94

.Source: Reuters

China textile mills lobby to boost cotton imports, cut local prices
Chinese textile mills are lobbying for permission to import more cotton as they struggle to find high-grade fibre locally, a move that would boost prices from key exporters such as the United States and Australia if the government grants its approval. But traders in the world's largest cotton importer are skeptical. Beijing will agree to larger import quotas while its reserves remain swollen with domestically grown cotton bought under an aggressive stockpiling programme. China strictly controls cotton imports to support local growers, making it difficult for some textile firms to source the high-quality cotton they need to make fabric for global clothing brands, with limited amounts of the grade grown locally. (Source:
Reuters)

Monsoon returns to Gujarat; sowing picks up

After a two-week gap, widespread monsoon rains have returned to Gujarat in the last two days, prompting farmers to resume sowing work across many parts of the western State. With the early onset of the monsoon season, Gujarat received nearly 20 per cent of its annual rainfall in the first two weeks of June. Sowing of major cash crops such as groundnut and cotton had commenced across the State. By the end of the second week in June, cotton was sown over nearly 1,200 hectares and groundnut over 500 hectares. Fresh rainfall has increased the sowing area to nearly 4,000 hectares in cotton and 1,500 acres in groundnut, preliminary reports added. (Source: Business Line)

Textile exports on upswing

Fall in the value of the rupee against the dollar has again brought the Indian textile sector back on the global map. Going by initial inquiries and orders, the industry hopes exports will be higher by 15-20 per cent in 2013-14. Textile export orders in the last few months have started to pick up due to the overall better sentiment in the US and the Euro zone, as well as the depreciation in the rupee. India's textile exports were $32 billion in 2012-13 out of which apparel exports were $15 billion. This year, apparel exports are expected to be around $17 billion, while total textile exports are estimated to be $37-$40 billion. (Source: Business Standard)

China halts wheat stockpiling in top producing area to cool prices

China's Sinograin, the state grain stockpiler, has halted stockpiling domestic wheat in the country's top wheat growing province of Henan to try to cool rising domestic prices, the agency said. The suspension comes after its purchases from domestic markets in past weeks have driven up prices, China Grain Reserves Corporation (Sinograin) said. Rising domestic prices after a rain-damaged harvest have spurred imports by the company and commercial firms. Sinograin has purchased 360,000 tonnes of U.S. wheat, the largest volume in three months. (Source: Reuters)

Rice seen tumbling on ample stocks

The rice market may continue to witness a downtrend in the coming days, said market sources. After witnessing a steady trend over the last few days, aromatic and sharbati varieties dropped on lack of buying and ample availability of stocks on Thursday. Lack of buying at all levels pulled rice prices down, said Amit Chandna, proprietor of Hanuman Rice Trading Company. Only need-based buying is taking place in the market and situation of the market was anticipated, he said. Domestic demand hasnt picked up but the availability of stocks has improved and it may pick up further in the coming days, he said. (Source: Business Line

Price stabilisation scheme for agro commodities extended for another six months
The ministry of commerce has decided to extend the price stablisation fund trust scheme (PSF) in its existing form for another six months ending September 30, 2012. According to officials, the new modified scheme proposed by the ministry will take time to get the cabinet approval. In the meantime, due to fluctuations of the domestic currency and prices in the global market of various commodities, the government has decided to continue with the existing scheme for next six months. The scheme was launched in 2003 to provide financial relief to the growers of various agricultural commodities when their prices fall below a specified level as a long term support rather than adhoc interventions during crisis. These primary commodities are tea, coffee, tobacco and rubber. (Source: Business
Standard)

European Commission: Despite weather extremes EU-27 cereal production in 2013 expected to be higher than last year
Despite weather extremes EU-27 cereal production in 2013 expected to be higher than last year This year total cereal production in the EU-27is forecast to be well above 2012 levels and above the average of the past five years. This agricultural year has so far been marked by an unusually prolonged winter for western and central Europe and heavy rainfall in May and June. However, the impact of poor weather on crops in some areas of the EU has been offset in other areas; for example, the Iberian Peninsula is expecting an excellent season. The yield forecast for cereals(wheat, barley, maize, other cereals) is 5.2 tonnes per hectare across the EU, clearly above last year (by more than 5%) and above the five-year average The total area used in the European Union for cereals in 2013 is slightly higher (+1.3%) compared to 2012. (Source: Google news)

S.Korea millers confirm to resume U.S. white wheat imports

South Korean millers will lift a temporary halt on U.S. white wheat imports after Seoul found no genetically modified grain in tests of shipments. The Korean millers would end the halt on U.S. white wheat imports next week at the earliest. South Korea and Japan, Asia's leading wheat importer, suspended imports of U.S. white wheat in May after an unapproved genetically modified strain was found in an Oregon field.
(Source: Reuters)

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Friday| July 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures traded on a flat note yesterday and settled marginally higher by 0.03% on Thursday on account of short coverings. Prices recovered on talks that government might impose import duty on Pulses so as to deter imports and also restrict further fall in the prices. However, no decision was taken on the same in the meeting. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts of Chana w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013. The CCEA declared the MSP for kharif pulses. The MSP of the MSP of Tur has been raised by ` 450 to ` 4,300/qtl, moong by ` 100 to ` 4,500/qtl while Urad has been kept unchanged at ` 4,300/qtl. Sowing of kharif pulses have commenced and 10.52 lakh hectares have th been covered as on 28 June compared to normal 1.22 lakh ha. Spillover effect of kharif pulses is capping sharp upside in chana prices. Sowing of kharif pulses was adversely impacted last year and was down by 16 percent due to deficient rains.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX July'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on July 4, 2013 % change Last 3090 3041 Prev day 1.52 0.03 WoW -0.54 -1.81 MoM -6.05 -3.98
Source: Reuters

YoY -30.78 -30.09

Spread Matrix
Closing 3090 3041 3111 3173 19-Jul-13 -49 0 -

as on July 4, 2013 20-Aug-13 21 70 0 20-Sep-13 83 132 62 0 as on July 3, 2013 Stocks as on 2nd July 80985 54121 11264 146370 Qty in Process 522 2458 120 3100

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 3rd July 81216 54882 11344 147442 Qty in Process 558 3338 70 3966

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. According to third advance Estimates released on 3 May 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 18 mn tn, up 5.76% compared to previous year. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 4.03% lower at 5.95 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 9.25% higher at 12.05 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. However, chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record output of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Erratic weather in M.P. lowered the yield.
rd

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX August contract

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of April 2013 declined to 0.04 lakh metric tonnes compared to 0.11 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana prices may trade on a mixed note. Good sowing of kharif pulses may keep prices under downside pressure. However, prices may recover on account of lower level demand. Expectations government may take some measure to restrict further fall in the prices may also support an upside in the prices.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Aug Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for July 05, 2013 Resistance 3128-3145

3078-3093

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Friday| July 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean futures recovered from lower levels yesterday and settled 1.12% higher on account of short coverings coupled with tight supplies in the domestic markets. However, farm month contracts did not gain sharply as higher sowing, thereby, expectations of a higher output capped sharp gains. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts of Rapeseed Mustard Seed, Soybean w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013.. The CCEA has increased the MSP of soybean (black) by `300 to `2,500/qtl and soybean (yellow) by `320 to `2,560/qtl. The regulator has withdrawn 10% special cash margin on the long side in July th contract w.e.f. 27 June, 2013. Oilseeds sowing is completed under 60.69 lk ha against 11.82 lk ha last year. Soybean in MP, and Maharashtra was planted on 29.74 and 8.26 lk ha, sharply higher against 2.75 and 2.58 lk ha last year. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 mn tonnes. IMDs forecasts of normal monsoon have raised hopes of better output next season too. International Markets CBOT soybean remained closed on Thursday on account of Independence Day holiday. The near month futures are trading higher due to tight supplies in the near term while the new crop far month contracts have decline on account of improved crop conditions for newly planted crops in the U.S. Farm Belt. Further USDA raised planting estimates to 77.728 mn acres against March forecast of 77.126 mn acres. As per USDA weekly crop progress report, 96 pct soybean planting is completed vs 92 pct a wk ago and 98 pct 5 yr average.
Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13

Market Highlights

as on July 4, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.46 1.63 1.12 0.09 0.61 -0.49 0.74 2.36 1.33 0.20

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT July'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX July '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3736 3663 1585 3500 3427

MoM -2.76 -2.63 3.68 1.33 -1.7

YoY -5.59 -7.92 0.81 -11.7 -12.6

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3736 Spot 19-Jul-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 3663 3136.5 3139.5 0 -526.5 0 19-Jul-13 -73 18-Oct-13 -599.5

as on July 4, 2013 20-Nov-13 -596.5 -523.5 3 0 as on July 4, 2013 20-Aug-13 -26 47 0 20-Sep-13 21 94 47 0 as on July 3, 2013 Qty in Process 363 0 0 363 as on July 3, 2013 Qty in Process 0 294 70 0 906 40 0 1310 NCDEX October contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Closing 3500 3427 3474 3521 19-Jul-13 -73 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 3rd July 20467 1285 401 22153 Stocks as on 3rd July 3040 4175 20508 634 62362 5153 1841 97713 Qty in Process 162 0 0 162 Qty in Process 0 273 20 0 654 40 0 987 Stocks as on 2nd July 20165 1285 401 21851 Stocks as on 2nd July 3040 4155 20509 634 61889 5153 1730 97110

Outlook
Soybean may trade on a mixed note today. Tight supplies in the near term in both the domestic as well as international markets may support soybean prices firm in the domestic markets. However, higher sowing and improved crop prospects may keep the far month contracts under downside pressure. Also, Rupee may appreciate today which may cap the upside.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed August futures corrected yesterday on account of profit taking after prices had gained significantly in the preceding session and settled 0.49% lower. Prices have declined as higher supplies in the domestic markets and increase in sowing area under kharif oilseeds exerted downside pressure on the prices. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Declining arrivals at lower prices levels and good demand may support prices in the near term. However, overall trend in mustard seed remain bearish amidst higher production this season.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 05, 2013 Support 3090-3115 3430-3453 Resistance 3160-3182 3498-3520

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| July 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Refine soy oil continued to trade higher extending previous days gains. The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.41% and 0.42% higher respectively on Thursday. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts of Refined Soy oil w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013. Soy Oil prices had declined sharply in the last one week amidst good sowing prospects of oilseeds in the domestic markets coupled with appreciation in the Indian rupee in the last two trading session. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 40.2% to 917,964 tn in May, after dropping for 3 months, mainly due to surge in palm oil imports. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 688.25 684.90 47.22 2365 505.10 Prev day 0.41 0.42 0.00 0.25 0.26

as on July 4, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTJuly'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia July '13 Fut CPO-MCX- July '13 Futures

WoW -0.69 0.82 1.77 0.72 0.02

MoM -3.41 -2.91 -2.82 1.07 4.60

YoY -8.45 -9.27 -10.82 -23.66 -10.67

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 688.25 684.9 680.05 669.9 19-Jul-13 -3.35 0 20-Aug-13 -8.2 -4.85 0 -

as on July 4, 2013 20-Sep-13 -18.35 -15 -10.15 0 as on July 4, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil may continue to trade higher tracking higher bean prices. However, rupee movement would drive prices in the intraday.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Jul-13 31-Aug-13 30-Sept-13 Closing 505.1 506.1 504 31-Jul-13 0 31-Aug-13 1 0 -

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO continued to trade higher extending previous days gains coupled with higher KLCE CPO futures and settled 0.26% and 0.25% higher respectively on Thursday. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for July, up from 9% in June. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products in June rose 7 percent to 1,350,311 tonnes from 1,262,281 tonnes shipped during May as buyers stocked up for Ramadan that falls in July. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports hit a record high in May by jumping 47.5 percent from April. The world's top buyer of vegetable oils imported 373,837 tonnes of refined palm oil in May. The jump in refined palm oil purchases will raise the clamour for increasing import duties to protect local oilseed growers and refiners against cheaper supplies from major exporters Indonesia and Malaysia. But the Indian government is yet to pay any heed as inflation has only just reached comfortable levels.

30-Sept-13 -1.1 -2.1 0 NCDEX August contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX July contract

Outlook
CPO prices are expected to trade higher today as increase in export tax by Indonesia may support an upside in the prices. Also, Ramadan demand may support prices. However, expectations of an appreciation in the Rupee may cap sharp gains.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Aug NCDEX Futures CPO MCX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 05, 2013 Support 670-675 499-503 Resistance 683-688 509-512

Source: Telequote

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Friday| July 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera Futures which traded on a flat note during most part of the day, corrected towards the end of the day and settled 0.9% lower on Thursday due to good supplies as well as ample rains in the main jeera growing regions. However, fresh overseas demand has supported prices in the spot market which settled marginally higher by 0.03%. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. Exports have been reported mainly to Singapore, Europe and Dubai. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. Jeera of Indian origin is being offered in the international market at $2,625 tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13649 13150 5702 5796 Prev day 0.03 -0.90 -0.42 0.21

as on July 4, 2013 % Change WoW -0.44 -2.01 -1.99 -4.20 MoM 1.18 0.42 -2.74 2.01 YoY -2.52 -2.90 52.90 41.09

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Fut Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX July '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 13648.8 13150 13525 13840 19-Jul-13 -498.8 0 20-Aug-13 -123.8 375 0 -

as on July 4, 2013 20-Sep-13 191.2 690 315 0 as on July 4, 2013 19-Jul-13 94 0 20-Aug-13 208 114 0 20-Sep-13 336 242 128 0 as on July 3, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 2nd July Process 1124 7517 8641 5378 NCDEX August contract 89 369 485 586

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 8,000 bags on Thursday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 5702 5796 5910 6038

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera may trade on a mixed note in the intraday. Good overseas is expected to support prices. However, good supplies may cap upside. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep the prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 3rd July 1156 7589 8745 5754 Qty in Process 57 279 336 209

Turmeric
Turmeric futures recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings and settled 0.21% higher on Thursday. Prices declined sharply as sowing has picked up in Andhra Pradesh. Also, weak upcountry demand, poor quality arrivals and rains have pressurized prices further. However, overseas demand is expected to remain firm.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi were reported at 3,000 bags and 6,000 bags respectively on Thursday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is reported at 0.18 lakh ha as on 3rd July, 2013 as against 0.1 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.12 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric may continue to remain under downside pressure today on account of improvement in the sowing of the new crop. Weak upcountry demand as well as good monsoon progress may also add to the downside pressure. Huge carryover stocks are also likely to keep prices under check. However, any improvement in the quality of arrivals as well as overseas demand may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX August contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Aug Futures Turmeric NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for July 05, 2013

Support 13260-13380 5710-5800 Resistance 13600-13730 5990-6080
Source: Telequote

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Friday| July 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar Futures recovered sharply on Thursday and settled 1.22% higher in the August contract after the government decided to increase the import duty on sugar to 15% from 10%. The date of imposition of duty is yet to be decided by the Finance Ministry. Reports of fresh export deals also supported the prices. However, lackluster demand from the bulk consumers and sufficient supplies capped sharp gains. Demand from the bulk consumers such as Ice cream and beverage manufacturers generally decline during the monsoon as rainfall brings down temperature. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation and with strong demand in Gulf and African states due to the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan. (Source: Reuters dated 1st July, 2013) According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 44.55 lakh ha as compared to 46.78 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX July '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE July '13 Fut `/qtl 3006 `/qtl 496.3 $/tonne 364.89 $/tonne 0.00 -0.22 1.04 Last 3062

as on July 4, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.17 0.20 -0.46 -2.26 -0.30 MoM 0.19 -1.18 4.07 0.24 YoY 0.12 2.31 -21.56 -25.30

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3062.45 3006 3068 3110 19-Jul-13 -56.45 0 20-Aug-13 5.55 62 0 -

as on July 4, 2013 20-Sep-13 47.55 104 42 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. According to ISMA, Indias Sugar production between October -April stood at 24.52 mn tn, lower by 3 percent during the same period last year. Maharashtras production dipped 10% to 8 mn tn while production in Uttar Pradesh increased by 7% to 7.43 mn tn. India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at higher against the domestic consumption of around 22.5 mln tn for 2012-13.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on July 3 2448 7797 1022 1228 12495 Qty in Process 250 0 0 0 250 Stocks as on July 2 2448 7697 1022 1228 12395

as on July 3, 2013 Qty in Process 250 100 0 0 350

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX August contract

Global Sugar Updates

ICE Sugar futures remained closed while LIFFE sugar declined 0.22% on account of abundant supplies from Brazil coupled with expectations of a dry July which may boost the harvesting and crushing. Sugar production in Brazil's main cane-growing region which was up by almost 59% till May fell in first half of June because wet weather held up crushing. Since April 1 to 15 June, mills have produced 7.39 mn tn of sugar, up 51%. Mills have used 58.1% of the cane crush for ethanol since the start of the season - up sharply from 54.4% at this time last year - with the rest used for sugar. Prices have declined sharply over the past few months and touched three years low last week due to three back to back years of sugar surplus coupled with supplies from Brazil.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar prices are expected to trade higher today extending yesterdays gains as the governments decision to increase import duty may support prices. Also expectations of export demand may support prices. However, upside will also be capped as good monsoon is raising hopes of good yields.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Aug NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for July 05, 2013 Support 3015-3040 Resistance 3088-3110

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Friday| July 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
MCX Cotton continued to remain firm and settled 0.36% higher on Thursday on account of strong demand for cotton from yarn manufacturers. However, NCDEX Kapas corrected by 0.51% tracking higher cotton planting in India. The regulator has reduced position limit in cotton futures to 1.95 lk bales for member levels and 65,000 bales at th client level wef 5 July 2013. The CCEA has increased the MSP of Cotton by `100 to `3,700/qtl for medium staple and `4,000/qtl for long staple. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the seaosn (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) is reported at 318.62, down 2.2 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1064 19770 84.39 93

as on July 4, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.51 -1.34 0.36 1.70 0.00 1.52 1.09 2.09 MoM YoY -1.34 #N/A 4.71 18.88 -0.20 16.00 1.64 10.78
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 28-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 19770 20520 20330 28-Jun-13 0

as on July 4, 2013 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 750 0 560 -190 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting has been reported at 55.76 lakh ha as against 31.38 lakh ha during the same period last year. Cotton acreage has seen a significant jump over last year in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, while the planting is over in the Northern States of Punjab and Haryana.

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Stocks as on July 3 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400

as on July 3, 2013 Stocks as on July 2 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
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Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total

Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton futures remained closed on Thursday on account of Independence Day holiday. Price gained on Wednesday as funds were buying at lower levels. ICAC has lowered projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. Reports indicate that textile mills in China are seeking permission to import more cotton. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates. ICE Futures U.S. certified stocks are at three-year highs of 600,000 bales. But almost a fifth of that total was already slated to be delivered against the nearby contract when it expires on July 9. (Reuters). This is Large enough to deplete swelling exchange stocks 20 percent or more, and tighten supplies heading into the new 2013/14 crop year. Rains in West Texas raised cotton prospects in top US cotton producing state last week which exerted downside pressure on the prices.

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX July contract

Outlook
Cotton may trade with a positive bias today supported by good yarn demand coupled with ICACs estimates of lower global production. Higher MSP may also support prices. Expectations of import demand from China may also support prices. However, higher planting in India and weak international prices may pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX July Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for July 05, 2013 Support 1056-1061 19540-19670 Resistance 1071-1075 19920-20030
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Friday| July 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex Guar Complex
Guar seed as well as Guar gum July Futures settled 2.43% and 1.9% higher respectively on Thursday on account of extending short coverings. Prices have declined significantly due to higher sowing of the guar crop. Since the resumption of Guarseed and Guar gum contracts on the futures platform, prices are on a downward trend on account of host of factors like bumper summer harvest in Gujarat, smooth monsoon progress and expected higher sowing.
Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX July 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX July13 Fut

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl 7160 `/qtl 20488 `/qtl 20380 `/qtl 1.90 2.12 2.43 Last Prev day 7250 2.21

as on July 4, 2013 % change WoW 0.22 2.73 -0.64 1.14 MoM -12.30 -10.72 -15.99 -15.99 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this years monsoon has so far upto 30 June been 32% above the LPA. IMD in its second long range forecast predicted monsoon in Northwest India to be 94 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The major guar growing states in India are Rajasthan, Haryana, and Gujarat. Sowing in the irrigated areas takes place during early June while in the rain fed areas it starts with the onset of monsoon in July. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 27 June, 2013 stood at 2.83 lakh hectares compared with 45000 hectares sown last year.
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Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 7250 7160 5700 5630 19-Jul-13 -90 0 20-Aug-13 -1550 -1460 0 -

as on July 4, 2013 20-Sep-13 -1620 -1530 -70 0 as on July 4, 2013 20-Aug-13 -3627.65 -3520 0 20-Sep-13 -3687.65 -3580 -60 0 as on July 3, 2013 Stocks as on 2 July 59 81
nd

NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 20487.65 20380 16860 16800 19-Jul-13 -107.65 0 -

Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Stocks as on 3rd July 59 81 Qty in Process 0 0

Qty in Process 0 0

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Early monsoon and higher sowing so far has raised hopes of timely harvesting. This may keep prices under downside pressure. However, sharp downside may be restricted as farmers might hold back their stocks at lower prices.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 05, 2013 Support 5480-5570 5470-5560 16300-16530 16370-16600 Resistance 5770-5880 5750-5850 17050-17350 17100-17370
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com