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Chapter 4 PROBABILITY

4.1 (a) (b) (c) (d) (a) (b) (c) (d) (iv), (v) (ii), (v) (vi) (vi) (i) (v) (iii) (v) (e) (f) (g) (v) (i) (iii), (v)

4.2

(e) (f)

(ii) (iv)

4.3 4.4

(a) (ii)

(b)

(iii)

(c)

(i)

(a) S = {0, 1, 3} Note: The number of correct identifications cannot be 2 because whenever any two are correctly identified, the third one cannot be wrong.

(b) (c)

S = {0, 1, 2,...} Denoting t = duration of satisfactory work, say in days, S = {t : t 0} . (a) and (b) are discrete, (c) is continuous.

4.5

(a) {0, 1} (b) {0, 1,..., 344}

(c)

{t : 90 < t < 425.4}

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82 4.6

CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY

The Presidents assignment is admissible. The Vice Presidents assignment is not permissible. Although the total probability is 1, the listed outcomes are not all distinct. In particular, win Project 1 includes the outcome win both so P(win Project 1) must not be less than P(win both). (a) Let us identify Bob, John, Linda, and Sue by their initials B, J, L, and S, respectively. We make a tree diagram:

4.7

S = {BJ, BL, BS, JB, JL, JS, LB, LJ, LS, SB, SJ, SL} (b) A = {LB, LJ, LS} , B = {JL, LJ, JS, SJ, LS, SL} 4.8 (a) The tree diagram is

(b)

A = {HH, HTH, THH, TTHH} ,

B = {HTT, THT, TTHH}

83

4.9

P(e1 ) + P(e2 ) + P(e3 ) = 0.3 + 0.4 + 0.2 = 0.9. Since P( S ) = 1 , we must have P(e4 ) = 1 0.9 = 0.1.

4.10 Since P( S ) = 1 , and e1 , e2 , and e3 have the same probabilities, each has the probability 1/3. 4.11 (a) yes (b) no, because the sum of probabilities is less than 1 (c) yes 4.12 (a) Denoting Monday by e1 and so on, we are given that the probabilities of e1 , e2 , e3 , e4 , and e5 are equally likely and that the probabilities of e6 and e7 are equal but each is twice as likely as any of the first five outcomes. Since 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 = 9 , we have
1 2 = P(e2 ) = P(e3 ) = P(e4 ) = P(e5 ) and P(e6 ) = = P(e7 ) 9 9 5 (b) P( A) = P(e1 ) + P(e2 ) + P(e3 ) + P(e4 ) + P(e5 ) = 9 P(e1 ) =

4.13 Denote May by e1 and so on. Because 1 + 3 + 6 + 10 = 20 , we have 1 3 6 10 P(e1 ) = , P(e2 ) = , P(e3 ) = , P(e4 ) = 20 20 20 20 4 so that P( A) = P(e1 ) + P(e2 ) = = 0.2. 20 3 7 4.14 (a) P(good weather) = = 0.75 (b) P(delay) = = 0.7 4 10 4.15 The relative frequencies are based on a very large number of cases and will therefore be very good approximations to the probabilities. Since
P(weekday) + P(weekend) = 1

and P(weekend) is approximately 0.257, the probability of a weekday birth is approximately 1 0.257 = 0.743 . 4.16 There were a large number 41,131, of permits issued, so the relative frequency is a good approximation to the probability. We estimate that the probability is 8,845 = 0.215 41,131 that a turkey will be harvested with a specific single permit.

84 4.17 (a) The tree diagram is

CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY

S = {e1 , e2 , ..., e8 }

(b) Assuming the coins are all fair, all the elementary outcomes are equally likely.
P(e1 ) = P(e2 ) = = P(e8 ) =
1 8 3 . 8

(c) [Exactly one head] = {e4 , e6 , e7 } , its probability is

4.18 There are 4 letters of which 2 are vowels. Since all letters are equally likely to be 2 selected, the probability of selecting a vowel is = 0.5. 4 4.19 (a) Let e1 , e2 , and e3 denote the outcomes of getting a ticket numbered 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Then S = {e1 , e2 , e3} . Since all 8 tickets are equally likely to be 2 drawn, and there are 2 tickets with number 1, we have P(e1 ) = . Likewise, 8 3 3 P(e2 ) = and P(e3 ) = . 8 8 (b) [Odd-numbered ticket drawn] = {e1 , e3 } , so the probability is 2 3 5 P(e1 ) + P(e3 ) = + = = 0.625 . 8 8 8

85 4.20 Referring to the tree diagram of Exercise 4.17 (a), suppose the first toss corresponds to yours and the second and third to your friends. S has 8 elementary outcomes which are all equally likely. (a) The event you will have to pay consists of all those elementary outcomes whose first letter is different from the other two. Since there are two such elementary outcomes HTT (e4 ) and THH (e5 ) the required probability is 2 1 P({e4 , e5 }) = = 8 4.
(b) [Three tosses yield the same result] = {HHH, TTT} = {e1 , e8 } , so that 2 1 P(all three will share) = = . 8 4 (Note: The answer to Part (a) remains the same no matter which specific toss is identified as yours.) 4.21 (a) Each elementary outcome is a pair of numbers, the first corresponds to the white die and the second to the colored die. A = {(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)} B = {(1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6, 1)} C = {(2, 6), (4, 6), (6, 6), (1, 5), (3, 5), (5, 5), (2, 4), (4, 4), (6, 4), (1, 3), (3, 3), (5, 3), (2, 2), (4, 2), (6, 2), (1, 1), (3, 1), (5, 1)} D = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)} .
1 for each elementary outcome. 36 5 6 1 18 1 6 1 (c) P( A) = , P( B) = = , P (C ) = = , P ( D) = = 36 36 6 36 2 36 6

(b) Probability

4.22 All 34 slots are equally likely so each has probability 1/34. (a) There are 18 slots which are not black. The probability that a black slot will 18 not occur is then . 34 (b) The event win corresponds to the occurrence of a black slot and its probability 16 is . 34

86 4.23 (a) The tree diagram is

CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY

So, S= {TT, TF, TI, FT, FF, FI, IT, IF, II} . (b) Because the student selects the answers at random, the 9 elementary outcomes 1 in S are all equally likely, each has a probability . Let us suppose that the 9 correct answers are T for Q1 and T for Q2. Then, the event one correct answer has the composition {TF, TI, FT, IT} , so that 4 P(one correct answer) = . 9 Note: Whatever be the correct answers for Q1 and Q2, there will be four cases in which one marked answer will match and one will not match. 4.24 (a) The 50 states are equally likely to be selected. The number of states with a birth rate under 16 (per thousand) is 7 + 23 + 16 = 46 , so that 46 P(under 16) = = 0.92 . 50 (b) The number of states with a birth rate under 18 but not under 14 is 16 + 3 = 19 , so the required probability is 19 P(under 18 but not under 14) = = 0.38 50 (c) The number of states with a birth rate 16 or over is 3 + 1 = 4 , so the required probability is 4 P(16 or over) = = 0.08 . 50 4.25 (a) The 15 persons are equally likely to be selected. Among them there is only 1 one of blood group AB, so that P[AB] = . 15

87

(b) The number of persons of blood group either A or B is 5 + 6 = 11 , so that the 11 required probability is . 15 5 + 6 + 1 12 = . (c) P[not O] = 15 15 4.26 Let N be a no response. S = {A, NA, NNA, NNNA, NNNN} . 4.27 S = {N, YN, YYN, YYYN, YYYYN, YYYYY} 4.28 (a) For simplicity, we consider all 12 months to be of equal size (duration). Then the assumption of even distribution of births makes the 12 months equally likely. The probability of a birth in November or December is 2 /12 0.167 . For a more precise calculation, consider 365 days of the year equally likely. November and December together consist of 61 days, so the required 61 = 0.16712 . probability is 365 (b) The relative frequencies are given below and the probabilities, determined by the uniform probability model for days, are shown in parentheses. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June 0.080 0.075 0.084 0.080 0.084 0.085 (0.085) (0.077) (0.085) (0.082) (0.085) (0.082) July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 0.086 0.089 0.088 0.083 0.081 0.084 1.000 (0.085) (0.085) (0.082) (0.085) (0.082) (0.085)

August and September appear to be somewhat higher and January lower than what the uniform probability model suggests. 4.29 (a) Letting c, b, and v denote compliance, borderline case, and violation, respectively, S = {c1 , c2 ,..., c9 , b1 , b2 , b3 , v1 , v2 } . (b) The 14 elementary outcomes are equally likely, and two of them, namely v1 and v2 , constitute the event that a violator is detected. The probability is 2 /14 = 0.143 .

88

CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY

4.30 (a) The tree diagram is

S = {aa, aA, Aa, AA} . (b) Under random selection, the four elementary outcomes of S are equally likely. 1 The probability is for each. 4 1 (c) P[ Short ] = P({aa}) = . 4 4.31 (a) The successive days cannot be considered as independent trials. The rate on one day is the same as, or is very close to, the rate on the next day. The results for successive days are not independent. There may also be a trend in rates over the year. (b) Cars brought in with other problems are more likely to have an emission problem. For instance, there would be too many old cars in this sample. 4.32 (a) We identify the persons by F, S and T. To list the sample space, we find all possible ways of assigning the gift certificates. We take the correct assignment as $100 for F, $50 for S and $25for T. $100 $50 $25 F S T (# of correct gifts) F S T 3 (e1) F T S 1 (e2) S F T 1 (e3) S T F 0 (e4) T F S 0 (e5) T S F 1 (e6) S = {e1 , e2 , e3 , e4 , e5 , e6 } (b) A = {e2 , e3 , e6 } , B = {e4 , e5 }

89 4.33 (a) Since the gift certificates are assigned at random, all 6 elementary outcomes are equally likely, so that each has probability 1/6. 3 1 2 1 (b) P( A) = = , P( B) = = . 6 2 6 3 4.34 January, February, and April have the lowest estimated probability 0.080 + 0.075 + 0.080 = 0.235 4.35 (a) The Venn diagram is

(b) (i) AB = {e6 , e7 } (ii) B = {e2 , e3 , e4 , e5 } (iii) AB = {e4 , e5 } (iv) A B = {e1 , e4 , e5 , e6 , e7 } 4.36 (a) The Venn diagram is

(b) (i) B = {e1 , e4 , e5 , e8 } , (ii) BC = {e6 } ,

P( B ) = 0.08 + 0.12 + 0.14 + 0.14 = 0.48

P( BC ) = 0.14

90

CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY

(iii) A C = {e1 , e2 , e5 , e6 , e7 , e8 } , P( A C ) = 0.08 + 0.12 + 0.14 + 0.14 + 0.14 + 0.14 = 0.6 (iv) A C = {e3 , e4 , e6 , e8 } , P( A C ) = 0.12 + 0.12 + 0.14 + 0.14 = 0.52 4.37 (a) C = {e1 , e2 , e3 , e4 , e5 , e7 } , P(C ) = 0.08 + 0.12 + 0.12 + 0.12 + 0.14 + 0.14 = 0.72 (b) AB = { e2 , e6 , e7 } , (c) AB = {e1 , e5 } , (d) AC = {e3 , e4 } , P( AB) = 0.12 + 0.14 + 0.14 = 0.40 P( AB ) = 0.08 + 0.14 = 0.22 P( AC ) = 0.12 + 0.12 = 0.24

4.38 (a) DM (b) DMG (Note: Fail to get offer is the complement of offer) (c) GM 4.39 (a) Denote by e1 , e2 , e3 , and e4 the elementary outcomes that the person hired is candidate number 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. The Venn diagram is given in Figure 4.2.

(b) A B = {e1 , e3 , e4 } and AB = {e3} 4.40 (a) A female candidate is hired, C = {e2 , e3} . (b) The candidate hired is male and is not a social science major, CA = {e4 } . (c) The candidate hired is either a social science major or a female, A C = {e1 , e2 , e3 } .

91

4.41 (a) P( A) = 0.04 + 0.2 + 0.06 = 0.30 and P( B) = 0.04 + 0.2 + 0.06 + 0.06 = 0.36 Also, since AB = {e5 , e8 } , P( AB) = 0.2 + 0.06 = 0.26 . (b) P( A B ) = P( A) + P( B) P( AB) = 0.30 + 0.36 0.26 = 0.40 (c) Since A B = {e1 , e5 , e8 , e2 , e9 } , P( A B) = 0.04 + 0.2 + 0.06 + 0.04 + 0.06 = 0.40 (d) P( B ) = 1 P( B) = 1 0.36 = 0.64 . Alternatively, since B = {e1 , e3 , e4 , e6 , e7 } , P( B ) = 0.04 + 0.2 + 0.2 + 0.1 + 0.1 = 0.64 . 4.42 (a) P( A) = P(e4 ) + P(e5 ) + P(e6 ) + P(e7 ) = 0.06 + 0.06 + 0.2 + 0.23 = 0.55 P( B) = P(e1 ) + P(e6 ) + P(e7 ) = 0.15 + 0.2 + 0.23 = 0.58 P( AB) = P(e6 ) + P(e7 ) = 0.2 + 0.23 = 0.43 (b) P( A) = 1 P( A) = 1 0.55 = 0.45 P( A B ) = P( A) + P( B) P( AB) = 0.55 + 0.58 0.43 = 0.7 (c) P ( A) = P (e1 ) + P (e2 ) + P (e3 ) = 0.15 + 0.15 + 0.15 = 0.45 P ( A B ) = P (e1 ) + P (e4 ) + P (e5 ) + P (e6 ) + P (e7 )
= 0.15 + 0.06 + 0.06 + 0.2 + 0.23 = 0.7

4.43 (a) The specified probabilities are entered in the table and underlined. The other entries are obtained in part (b).
B 0.12 0.38 0.50

A A

B 0.13 0.37 0.50

0.25 0.75 1.00

(b) Since A = AB AB , a union of mutually exclusive events, we have P( A) = P( AB) + P( AB ) . Hence, for the given information, 0.25 = 0.12 + P( AB ) . Thus, solving for P( AB ) yields: P( AB ) = 0.25 0.12 = 0.13 . Similarly, P( AB) = 0.75 0.37 = 0.38 , P( AB ) = 1 (0.12 + 0.13 + 0.38) = 0.37 4.44 (a) AB , P( AB) = 0.38 (b) AB , P( AB ) = 0.37 (c) A B ,

92

CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY

P( A B ) = P( A) + P( B ) P( AB ) = 0.25 + 0.50 0.13 = 0.62 4.45 (a) The completed probability table is given below
B 0.14 0.36 0.50

A A

B 0.23 0.27 0.50

0.37 0.63 1.00

(b) P( AB ) = 0.37 0.14 = 0.23 (c) P( A B ) = P( A) + P( B) P( AB) = 0.37 + 0.50 0.14 = 0.73 (d) P( AB AB) = P( AB ) + P( AB ) (union of incompatible events) = 0.23 + 0.36 = 0.59 4.46 No. If they were mutually exclusive we would have P( AB) = 0 and P( A B) would then be P( A) + P( B) = 0.2 + 0.9 = 1.1 which cannot be a probability. 4.47 (a) P( A) = 0.4 + 0.25 = 0.65 (b) P( AB ) = 0.15 (c) P( AB ) + P( AB) = 0.15 + 0.4 = 0.55 4.48 The classification of the 32 students is shown in the following table: Senior Graduate student Total Male 16 4 20 Female 4 8 12 20 12 32 (a) Of the 32 students, 20 are seniors. Therefore, the probability that a randomly selected student is a senior is 20 P (senior) = = 0.625 32 4 = 0.125 (b) P (male graduate student) = 32 4.49 Denoting violation by V and compliance by C, the classification of the 18 restaurants is shown in the following table: Safety V C Total Sanitary V 4 3 7 C 4 7 11 8 10 18 7 P (CC ) = = 0.389 18

93 4.50 The specified probabilities are

P( A) = 0.3 P( B ) = 0.6 P( A B) = 0.5


(a) P( A) = 1 P( A) = 1 0.3 = 0.7

(i) (ii) (iii)

(b) To find P( AB) , we use (iii) and the addition law 0.5 = P( A B) = P( A) + P( B) P( AB) = 0.3 + (1 0.6) P( AB) since P( B) = 1 0.6 by (ii) Thus, we get P( AB) = 0.3 + 0.4 0.5 = 0.2 . (c) To find P( AB ) , we use the fact that A = AB AB . So,

P( A) = P( AB) + P( AB ) or 0.3 = 0.2 + P( AB ) (from part (b))


Therefore, P( AB ) = 0.3 0.2 = 0.1 . 4.51 (a) P( A) = 0.08 + 0.02 + 0.20 + 0.10 = 0.40 P( B) = 0.15 + 0.10 + 0.08 + 0.02 = 0.35 P( BC ) = 0.15 + 0.08 = 0.23 P( ABC ) = 0.08 (b) (i) Light case and above 40.

P( AB ) = 0.15 + 0.20 = 0.35


(ii) Either a light case or the parents are not diabetic or both.

P( A C ) = 0.15 + 0.10 + 0.15 + 0.20 + 0.02 + 0.10 = 0.72


(iii) A light case, age is below 40 and parents are not diabetic.

P( ABC ) = 0.10 .
4.52 Let us denote the chemicals Arsenic, Barium, and Mercury by the letters A, B, and M respectively, and indicate the concentrations by the subscripts H for high and L for low. For instance, a high concentration of Barium will be denoted by BH.

94

CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY

(a) Of the 58 landfills, the number with BH is 1 + 4 + 3 + 8 = 16 . Therefore, 16 P ( BH ) = = 0.276 . 58 10 = 0.172. (b) The number of MHALBL landfills is 10, so P ( M H AL BL ) = 58 (c) There are three possibilities for landfills with two Hs one L. The number of AHBLMH landfills is 5, the number of ALBHMH is 4, and the number of AHBHML is 12 3, so the total is 12. Therefore, P(two Hs and one L) = = 0.207 . 58 (d) There are three possibilities for landfills with one H and two Ls. The number of AHBLML landfills is 9, the number of ALBHML is 8, and the number of ALBLMH 27 is 10, so the total is 27. Therefore, P(one H and two Ls) = = 0.466 58 4.53 (a) With the stated numbers identifying the gift boxes, the list is: (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5) (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5) (3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5) (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5) (5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5) The 25 elementary outcomes are equally likely, so each has the probability (b) A = {(2,1), (2, 2), (2,3), (2, 4), (2,5), (3,1), (3, 2), (3,3), (3, 4), (3,5), (1, 2), (4, 2), (5, 2), (1,3), (4,3), (5,3)}, 16 So, P( A) = . 25
B = {(3,1), (3, 2), (3,3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (4,1), (4, 2), (4,3), (4, 4), (4,5), (5,1), (5, 2), (5,3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1,5), (2,3), (2, 4), (2,5)} So, P( B) = 21 . 25 AB = {(2,3), (2, 4), (2,5), (1,3), (3,1), (3, 2), (3,3), (3, 4), (3,5), (4, 2), (4,3), (5, 2), (5,3)}, So, P( AB) = 13 . 25
1 . 25

95

4.54 (a) C = A B P (C ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) P ( AB ) =

16 21 13 24 + = 25 25 25 25 (b) C has all the elementary outcomes of S except the single outcome (1,1). Hence, 24 P (C ) = . 25

4.55 It is reasonable to assume that a person with a college degree is more likely to command a higher salary than a person without a college degree, so we would expect P( A | B) > P( A) . If A and B are independent, then P( A | B) = P( A) so by the previous reasoning, A and B are not independent. 4.56 It is reasonable to expect P( A | B) > P( A) , since the set of luxury car owners would include a large percentage of the set of lawyers. By this reasoning, A and B are not independent for otherwise we would have P( A | B) = P( A) . 4.57 (a) P( B | A) =

P( AB) 0.12 = = 0.48 P( A) 0.25 (b) From P( A) = 0.25 and P( AB) = 0.12 and the fact that A = AB AB (union of mutually exclusive events), we calculate P( AB ) = 0.25 0.12 = 0.13 . P( AB ) 0.13 Therefore, since P( B | A) = , we have P ( B | A) = = 0.52 . P( A) 0.25 Alternatively, note that B and B are complementary events so that P( B | A) = 1 P( B | A) = 1 0.48 = 0.52

(c) Observe that P( A) = 1 P( A) = 1 0.25 = 0.75 and P( AB) = P( B) P( AB) = 0.50 0.12 = 0.38 (since B = AB AB as in (b)). Therefore, since P( B | A) =
P( AB) 0.38 , we have P ( B | A) = = 0.51 . P( A) 0.75

4.58 (a) P( A | B) =

P( AB) 0.14 = = 0.28 P( B) 0.50 P( AB) 0.36 = = 0.57 (b) P( B | A) = P( A) 0.63

4.59 Observe that P( B | A) =

P( AB) 0.001 = = 0.0099 and P( B) = 0.05 + 0.001 = 0.051 . P( A) 0.101 Since P( B) P( B | A) , the events A and B are not independent.

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CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY

4.60 (a) Because P( AB) + P( AB) = P( B) , we have P( AB) = 0.32 0.20 = 0.12 Likewise, P( AB ) = P( A) P( AB) = 0.55 0.12 = 0.43 Also, P( A) = 1 P( A) = 1 0.55 = 0.45 P( AB ) = P( A) P( AB) = 0.45 0.20 = 0.25
B 0.12 0.20 0.32

A A

B 0.43 0.25 0.68

0.55 0.45 1.00

(b) P( A | B ) =

P( AB ) 0.43 = = 0.632 P( B ) 0.68

4.61 (a) P( A) = 1 P( A) = 1 0.4 = 0.6 (b) P( AB) = P( B) P( A | B) = 0.25 0.7 = 0.175 (c) P( A B ) = P( A) + P( B) P( AB) = 0.4 + 0.25 0.175 = 0.475 4.62 (a) P( A) = 0.12 + 0.08 + 0.05 = 0.25 P( M ) = 0.08 + 0.25 = 0.33 P( AM ) = 0.08 P( A M ) = 0.25 + 0.33 0.08 = 0.50 (b) P( A) P( M ) = 0.25 0.33 = 0.0825 P( AM ) . Not independent. 4.63 2 3 5 Green Red 2, without replacement

(a) We denote G for green, R for red and attach subscripts to identify the order of the draws. Since the event A, a green ball appears in the first draw, has nothing to do with the second draw, we identify A = G1 so 2 P ( A) = P (G1 ) = = 0.4 5 The event B = G2 is the union of G1G2 and R1G2 . 2 1 2 P (G1G2 ) = P (G1 ) P (G2 | G1 ) = = 5 4 20 3 2 6 P ( R1G2 ) = P ( R1 ) P (G2 | R1 ) = = 5 4 20 2 6 8 Hence, P ( B ) = P (G2 ) = + = = 0.4 20 20 20

97

(b) P ( AB ) = P (G1G2 ) =

2 = 0.1 . On the other hand, P( A) P( B) = 0.4 0.4 = 0.16 , 20 and this is different from P(AB). Therefore, A and B are not independent.

4.64 Under the scheme of sampling with replacement, the contents of the urn remain unchanged at each draw. (a) P ( A) = P (G1 ) =
2 = 0.4 5

2 2 4 = 5 5 25 3 2 6 P ( R1G2 ) = P ( R1 ) P (G2 | R1 ) = = 5 5 25 4 6 10 Adding, we get P ( B ) = P (G2 ) = + = = 0.4 25 25 25


P (G1G2 ) = P (G1 ) P (G2 | G1 ) =

(b) P ( AB ) = P (G1G2 ) =

4 = 0.16 25 P( A) P( B) = 0.4 0.4 = 0.16 = P( AB) . Since these probabilities are equal, the events are independent.

4.65 We use the symbols M for male, F for female, U for unemployed and E for employed. (a) P( M ) = 0.6 P(U | M ) = 0.051 P(U | F ) = 0.043 (b) P(UM ) = 0.051 0.6 = 0.0306 and P(UF ) = 0.043 (1 0.6) = 0.0172 Adding these we obtain P(U ) = 0.0306 + 0.0172 = 0.0478 , so the overall rate of unemployment is 4.8%. (c) To find P( F | U ) , we use the results P(U ) = 0.0478 and P(UF ) = 0.0172 and P( FU ) 0.0172 = = 0.360 . obtain P( F | U ) = P(U ) 0.0478 4.66 Let A = running out of gas and B = electronic starting system doesnt work. We are given that P( A) = 0.03, P( B) = 0.01 . (a) By independence, P A B = P A P B = (0.97)(0.99) = 0.9603 . (b) If the two problems are related in the sense that running out of gas would increase the probability of the starting system failing, then independence would be a poor assumption.

( )

( ) ( )

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CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY

4.67 (a) If independent, P( AB) = P( A) P( B) = 0.6 0.22 = 0.132 so P( A B ) = P( A) + P( B) P( AB) = 0.6 + 0.22 0.132 = 0.688 (b) If mutually exclusive, P( AB) = 0 so P( A B) = P( A) + P( B) = 0.6 + 0.22 = 0.82 (c) If A and B are mutually exclusive, we have AB = A so P( AB ) 0.6 P( A | B ) = = = 0.769 . P( B ) 0.78 4.68 The classification of the 18 fast food restaurants is shown in the table Safety V 4 4 8 Total 7 11 18

Sanitary V C

C 3 7 10

(a) Denote the events A = violation of sanitary, and B = violation of safety standards. To find P( A | B ) we can use the definition of conditional probability P( AB ) P( A | B ) = P( B ) Calculating 10 P( B ) = P[compliance of safety] = 18 P( AB ) = P[violation of sanitary and compliance of safety] = we get P ( A | B ) =
3 /18 3 = = 0.3 . 10 /18 10 3 18

Alternatively, we note that the selected restaurant must be one of the 10 that are in compliance of safety standards. Of these, there are 3 that violate sanitary 3 standards so the probability is = 0.3 . 10 (b) The number of restaurants that have at least one violation is 4 + 4 + 3 = 11 . Of these 11 restaurants, 3 are in compliance of safety standards so the required 3 probability is = 0.273 . 11

99 4.69 We use the symbol D for defective and G for good, and attach subscripts to identify the order of selection. (a) Here the second selection is irrelevant. If one air conditioner is selected at 3 random, the probability of its being defective is P ( D1 ) = = 0.25 . 12 3 9 27 (b) P ( D1G2 ) = P ( D1 ) P (G2 | D1 ) = = = 0.205 . 12 11 132 3 2 6 = = 0.045 (c) P ( D1 D2 ) = P ( D1 ) P ( D2 | D1 ) = 12 11 132 (d) The event D2 is the union of two incompatible events: D2 = D1 D2 G1 D2 so P( D2 ) = P( D1D2 ) + P(G1 D2 ) . We have already calculated P( D1 D2 ) in part (c). In the same way
P (G1D2 ) = P (G1 ) P( D2 | G1 ) = 9 3 27 . Thus, P ( D2 ) = 6 + 27 = 33 = 0.25 . = 12 11 132 132 132 132

(e) [exactly one defective] = D1G2 G1 D2 . We have already found that P ( D1G2 ) = P (G1D2 ) = Hence, P(exactly one defective) =
27 . 132

27 27 54 + = = 0.409 . 132 132 132

4.70 (a) P(G1G2G3 ) = P(G1 ) P(G2 | G1 ) P(G3 | G1G2 )


= 9 8 7 504 = = 0.382 12 11 10 1320 9 8 3 216 = = 0.164 12 11 10 1320

(b) P(G1G2 D3 ) =

(c) The event [2 good and 1 defective] is the union of the three incompatible events D1G2G3 . 216 In part (b) we have calculated P(G1G2 D3 ) = . This is also the probability 1320 of each of the other two events. For instance, G1G2 D3 G1 D2G3
P (G1D2G3 ) = P (G1 ) P ( D2 | D1 ) P (G3 | G1 D2 ) = 9 3 8 216 = . 12 11 10 1320

and

Hence, the required probability is 3

216 = 0.491 . 1320

100

CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY

4.71 The classification of the 20 rats is shown in the following table: Infected (I) Male (M) 7 Female (F) 2 9 Not infected (N) 5 6 11

Total 12 8 20
2 . 9

(a) There are 9 infected rats of which 2 are females. Therefore, P( F | I ) = Alternatively, we can use the definition of conditional probability P( F | I ) = P( FI ) 2 / 20 2 = = . P( I ) 9 / 20 9
7 . 12

(b) There are 12 males of which 7 are infected, so P( I | M ) =

(c) P( I ) =

9 12 7 , P ( M ) = , P ( IM ) = = 0.35 20 20 20 9 12 P( I ) P( M ) = = 0.27 20 20 Since P( IM ) P( I ) P(M ) , the events are not independent.

4.72 Let S = satisfactory visit and N = unsatisfactory visit. We are given that P( S ) = 0.8 and P( N ) = 0.2 . The possible outcomes are SS, SN, NS, NNS, and NNN. (a) Assuming independence, we have: P( SS ) = P( S ) P( S ) = (0.8)(0.8) = 0.64 P( SN ) = P( S ) P( N ) = (0.8)(0.2) = 0.16 P( NS ) = P( N ) P( S ) = (0.2)(0.8) = 0.16 P( NNS ) = P( N ) P( N ) P( S ) = (0.2)(0.2)(0.8) = 0.032 P( NNN ) = P( N ) P( N ) P( N ) = (0.2)(0.2)(0.2) = 0.008
(b)
P(at least two unsatisfactory visits) = P ( NNS or NNN ) = P( NNS ) + P( NNN ) = 0.032 + 0.008 = 0.040

101 (c)
P ( 1 satisfactory visit 1 unsatisfactory visit ) = 1 P ( no satisfactory visits 1 unsatisfactory visit ) = 1 P( NNN SS ) = 1 = 1 0.008 = 0.978 1 0.64 P( NNN and SS ) P SS

( )

= 1

P( NNN ) P SS

( )

4.73 (a) BC, P( BC ) = 0 since B and C are incompatible. (b) A B, P( A B) = P( A) + P( B) P( AB) Now, by independence, P( AB) = P( A) P( B) = 0.7 0.2 = 0.14 Hence, P( A B) = 0.7 + 0.2 0.14 = 0.76 (c) B , P( B ) = 1 P( B) = 1 0.2 = 0.8 (d) ABC , P( ABC ) = 0 since B and C are incompatible and so are AB and C. 4.74 Let N denote the event that the blood type of a person is not O, and let A = at least one type O. While A contains many elementary outcomes, A has only one: A = {NNNN } . We have P( N ) = 1 0.4 = 0.6 . Since the population is large and only four persons are selected, the results of the different draws can be taken to be independent. We therefore assign the probability P ( NNNN ) = P ( N ) P ( N ) P ( N ) P ( N ) = (0.6)4 = 0.1296 . Therefore, P( A) = 1 0.1296 = 0.8704 . 4.75 Denote the events by: S S1 F1 S2 F2 = the cooling system functions = the primary unit functions = the primary unit fails = the back-up unit functions = the back up unit fails

Then S can be expressed as the union of two incompatible events: S = S1 ( F1S2 ) As such, P( S ) = P( S1 ) + P( F1S2 ) . Next, observe that P( S1 ) = .999 and P( F1S2 ) = P( F1 ) P( S2 | F1 ) = 0.001 0.910 = 0.00091 . Therefore, P( S ) = 0.999 + 0.00091 = 0.99991 .

102

CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY

4.76 Let I denote the event that a bill is irregular and N denote the event that it is not. (a) We have P( I ) = 0.05, P( N ) = 0.95 P(a batch is passed) = P( NNNN ) = P( N ) P( N ) P( N ) P( N ) (by independence)
= (0.95)4 = 0.8145 .

(b) Here, P( I ) = 0.2 and so, P( N ) = 0.8 . P(a batch is passed) = (0.8)4 = 0.4096 . 4.77 (a) Denoting the success and failure in each test by S and F, respectively, the sample space is conveniently listed with the tree diagram below.

To calculate the probabilities we note that P( S ) = 0.8 and P( F ) = 1 0.8 = 0.2 . Since the tests are independent, we calculate P( SSS ) = P( S ) P( S ) P( S ) = 0.8 0.8 0.8 = 0.512 P( SSF ) = P(S ) P(S ) P( F ) = 0.8 0.8 0.2 = 0.128 , etc. The results are shown in the column of probability in the above figure. (b) P(at least two successes) = P(2 successes) + P(3 successes) = (0.128 + 0.128 + 0.128) + 0.512 = 0.896 .

103 4.78 The 20 landfills in the MH group (that is, high in Mercury) have the following classification: Barium High Low Total Arsenic High 1 5 6 Low 4 10 14 Total 5 15 20 (= the number of MH) (a) Of the 20 landfills that are MH, there are 5 that are also BH. 5 Therefore, P( BH | M H ) = = 0.25 . 20 10 (b) P( AL BL | M H ) = = 0.5 20 10 (c) P(Either AH or BH | MH) = = 0.5 . 20 4.79 Denote the events S = strep-throat and A = allergy

We are given that P( S ) = 0.25, P( A) = 0.4 , and P( SA) = 0.1 . (a) P( S A) = P( S ) + P( A) P( SA) = 0.25 + 0.4 0.1 = 0.55 (b) P( S ) P( A) = 0.25 0.4 = 0.10 = P( SA) , so the events are independent. 4.80 Here the sample space S = {HH , HT , TH , TT } consists of four elementary outcomes, each having the probability The composition of the three events are: A = {HH , HT }, B = {HH , TH }, C = {HH , TT } 2 1 (a) We have P( A) = P( B) = P(C ) = = 4 2 1 AB = {HH }, P ( AB ) = = P ( A) P ( B ) so A and B are independent. 4 1 AC = {HH }, P ( AC ) = = P ( A) P (C ) so A and C are independent. 4 1 BC = {HH }, P ( BC ) = = P ( B ) P (C ) so B and C are independent. 4 (b) ABC = {HH }, P( ABC ) =
1 1 but P( A) P( B) P(C ) = is not the same as P(ABC). 4 8 1 . 4

104 4.81 (a)

CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY

P( A | B) P( B) P( A | B) P( B) + P( A | B) P( B) (0.96)(0.014) = = 0.577 (0.96)(0.014) + (0.01)(0.986) (b) This is the probability computed in (a). He has about a 58% chance of having the disease. P( B A) = 4.82 (a) By the rule of total probability, P ( Incomplete ) = P ( Incomplete Carol did repair ) P ( Carol did repair )
+ P ( Incomplete Karl did repair ) P ( Karl did repair ) = (0.04)(0.60) + (0.06)(0.40) = 0.048

(b) By Bayes Formula,


P ( Karl did repair| Repair incomplete ) = = P ( Incomplete Karl did repair ) P ( Karl did repair ) P ( Incomplete Karl did repair ) P ( Karl did repair ) + P ( Incomplete Carol did repair ) P ( Carol did repair ) (0.06)(0.40) = 0.50 (0.06)(0.40) + (0.04)(0.60)

6 6 5 4 4.83 (a) = = 20 3 3 2 1 10 10 9 8 7 (b) = = 210 4 4 3 2 1 22 22 21 (c) = = 231 2 1 2 22 22 (d) = = 231 (see part c) 20 2 30 30 29 28 (e) = = 4060 3 21 3 30 30 (f) = = 4060 (see part e) 27 3

105

4.84 (a) {a, b} {b, c} {c, d } {d , e} (b) {a, b, c} {a, c, d } {b, c, d } {c, d , e}

{a, c} {b, d } {c, e}

{a, d } {b, e}

{a, e}

Number of samples = 10

{a, b, d } {a, c, e} {b, c, e}

{a, b, e} {a, d , e} {b, d , e}

Number of samples = 10

4.85 (a) The number of possible selections of 4 persons out of 10 persons is 10 10 9 8 7 = 210 4 = 4 3 2 1 (b) The number of possible selections of 2 men out of 6 men is 6 6 5 = 15 2 = 21 and the number of possible selections of 2 women out of 4 women is 4 4 3 =6 2 = 21 Since the men can be selected in 15 ways, and for each selection of men, there are 6 ways the women can be selected, the number of possible selections of two men and two women is 15 6 = 90 . 4.86 The number of ways 4 positions can be chosen out of 11 positions is 11 11 10 9 8 = 330 4= 4 3 21 11 4.87 (a) The number of possible selections of 5 children out of 11 is = 462 . 5 4 (b) The number of selections of 2 out of the 4 young males is = 6 . 2 7 The number of selections of 3 out of the 7 young females is = 35 . 3 Each of the 6 choices of the young males can accompany each of the 35 choices of the young females, so the number of selections of 2 males and 3 female 4 7 students is = 6 35 = 210 . 2 3

106 4.88 Of the 11 people, 8 can do the work and 3 cannot.


11 (a) Number of possible pairs = = 55 2

CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY

8 (b) Number of pairs where both are able to work = = 28 2 3 8 Number of pairs where one cannot do the work and one can = = 24 1 1 Hence, the number of pairs such that 0 or 1 people cannot do the work = 28 + 24 = 52 . 3 (c) The number of pairs such that neither can do the work = = 3 . 2 3 2 3 The required probability is = = 0.055 . 11 55 2 17 4.89 The number of possible samples of 5 jurors out of 17 is = 6188 . Under 5 random sampling, these 6188 possible samples are equally likely. The number of 10 possible samples where all 5 jurors selected are males is = 252 . The jury 5 selection shows discrimination since 10 5 252 P(no female members) = = = 0.041 . 17 6188 5

4.90 Denote
A = at least one of your cards will be drawn,

so that A = none of your cards will be drawn. It is convenient to first calculate P( A) . The number of possible samples of 4 cards out of 5000 is 5000 5000 4999 4998 4997 . 4 = 4 3 2 1

107

These are equally likely under random sampling. For A to occur, the 4 cards must come from the 4998 cards that are not yours. The number of such samples is
4998 4998 4997 4996 4995 4 = 4 3 2 1 4998 4 = 4996 4995 = 0.998 . Therefore, P( A) = 5000 5000 4999 4 The required probability is P( A) = 1 0.998 = 0.002 .

4.91 The batch contains 4 defective and 16 good alternators. The number of possible 20 samples of size 3 is = 1140 and these are equally likely. 3
16 3 560 (a) P( A) = = = 0.491 20 1140 3 4 16 2 1 6 16 (b) P( B) = = = 0.084 20 1140 3

4.92 P( A) = P(G1G2G3 ) = P(G1 ) P(G2 | G1 ) P(G3 | G1G2 ) 16 15 14 3360 = = = 0.491 20 19 18 6840 The event B is the union of the following incompatible events: D1D2G3 D1G2 D3 G1 D2 D3 We calculate P( D1 D2G3 ) = P( D1 ) P( D2 | D1 ) P(G3 | D1 D2 ) 4 3 16 192 = = = 0.0281 20 19 18 6840 The same result holds for P( D1G2 D3 ) and P(G1D2 D3 ) . Thus, 192 P( B) = 3 = 0.084 . 6840 4.93 No. The states with fewer seniors get more representation in this process than what the random selection would permit.

108 4.94 3 4 7 hard easy

CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY

3 selected at random

7 7 6 5 The number of possible samples = = = 35 . 3 3 2 1 These are equally likely. 3 The number of possible samples containing only the hard problems = = 1 . 3 3 3 1 Hence, the required probability = = = 0.0286 . 7 35 3 9 4.95 (a) The number of possible selections of 3 plots out of 9 is = 84 , and the 84 3 3 selections are equally likely. One row can be chosen in = 3 ways, and 1 3 within that row, 3 plots can be chosen in = 1 way. Therefore, the number of 3 3 3 choices such that the three plots are in the same row is = 3 1 = 3 . 1 3 3 Hence, the required probability = = 0.036 . 84 3 (b) The number of ways one plot can be selected from row 1 is = 3 . Likewise, 1 a plot can be selected from row 2 in 3 ways, and from row 3 in 3 ways. The number of possible selections of 3 plots, one in each row, is 3 3 3 = 27 , so 27 the required probability = = 0.321 . 84

109 4.96 10 7 17 bushy lean 4 randomly selected

17 Number of possible selections of 4 trees out of 17 trees is = 2380 4 Number of selections of 2 bushy trees and 2 lean trees is 10 7 = 45 21 = 945 2 2 945 Hence, the required probability = = 0.397 . 2380

4.97 Row A 4 bushy 4 lean 8 Row B 6 bushy 3 lean 9

8 (a) There are 8 trees in row A from which 2 trees can be selected in = 28 ways. 2 4 Of these 28 equally likely selections, there are = 6 selections in which both 2 trees are bushy. Therefore, 6 . P[2 bushy trees selected in row A] = 28 Similarly, 3 2 3 P[2 lean trees selected in row B] = = . 9 36 2 By independence of the two selections, the required probability is therefore 6 3 = = 0.018 . 28 36

(b) Let A0 , A1 , and A2 respectively denote the events of getting exactly 0, 1, or 2 bushy trees in row A, and let B0 , B1 , B2 denote the corresponding events for row B. Then [Exactly 2 bushy] = A2 B0 A1B1 A0 B2 (union of mutually exclusive events)

110

CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY

4 3 2 2 6 3 P ( A2 B0 ) = P( A2 ) P ( B0 ) = = = 0.018 (see part (a)) 8 9 28 36 2 2 4 4 6 3 1 1 1 1 16 18 P( A1B1 ) = P( A1 ) P ( B1 ) = = = 0.286 8 9 28 36 2 2 4 6 2 2 6 15 P ( A0 B2 ) = P( A0 ) P( B2 ) = = = 0.089 8 9 28 36 2 2

Adding these probabilities we get P[exactly 2 bushy] = 0.393 . 4.98 (a) No Students who enjoy outdoor activities would be over-represented. (b) No Studious students would be over-represented. (c) No Students taking statistics courses would be over-represented. 4.99 5 6 11 below thirty over thirty 4 randomly selected

11 (a) The number of possible choices of 4 persons out of 11 is = 330 . 4 (b) The number of choices of 3 persons below thirty and 1 over thirty is 5 6 3 1 = 10 6 = 60 . 60 So, the required probability = = 0.182 . 330

4.100 Males 2 below thirty 4 above thirty 6 Females 3 below thirty 2 above thirty 5

6 5 (a) = 15 10 = 150 possible selections 2 2 (b) The number of selections such that both selected females are below 30 and 3 4 both males are over 30 is . So, the required probability = 3 6 = 18
2 2

18 = = 0.12 . 150

111 4.101 6 5 11 yellow red 4

11 The number of possible samples of 4 bulbs out of 11 is = 330 , and all 4 choices are equally likely.

(a) The number of ways 2 red and 2 yellow bulbs can be selected is
5 6 = 10 15 = 150 2 2 150 So, P[exactly 2 red] = = 0.455 . 330 (b) We calculate
150 (done in part (a)) 330 5 6 3 1 10 6 60 = P[3 red] = = 330 330 330 5 4 5 P[4 red] = = 330 330

P[2 red] =

Adding these probabilities, we obtain 150 + 60 + 5 215 P[at least 2 red] = = = 0.652 330 330 5 4 5 (c) P[all 4 red] = = 330 330 6 4 15 P[all 4 yellow] = = 330 330 Adding these probabilities, we obtain P[all 4 of the same color] =
20 = 0.061 . 330

112

CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY

8 4.102 (a) The number of possible selections of 3 files from 8 is = 56 each of which 3 is equally likely.
(b) Label the folders A through H in alphabetical order. The selections that correspond to the three folders being adjacent are { A, B, C} {D, E, F } {B, C , D} {E , F , G} {C , D, E} {F , G, H }

So, there are 6 such selections. Thus, the required probability is 6 P[all adjacent] = = 0.107 . 56 4.103 (a) S = {1, 2, ..., 24} (b) S = { p : p > 0} , p is tire pressure in psi. (c) S = {0, 1, 2, ..., 50} (d) S = {t : t 0} , t is time in days. 4.104 (a) and (c) are discrete while (b) and (d) are continuous. 4.105 (a) A = {23, 24} (b) A = { p : 0 < p 28} (c) Since 0.25 50 = 12.5, A = {0, 1, ..., 12} (d) A = {t : 0 t < 500.5} 4.106 (a) The total exceeds 1. (b) 1.1 is not permissible for a probability. (c) The probability of both As cannot be more than the probability of one A. 4.107 S = { p : 0 p < 100} where p = percentage of alcohol in blood. A = { p : .10 < p < 100}

113 4.108 Denote player 1s winning and loss in a set by W and L, respectively. (a) Championship ends in 3 sets = {WWW , LLL} , two elementary outcomes. Ends in 4 sets = {WWLW , WLWW , LWWW , LLWL, LWLL, WLLL}. (b) P(W ) = P( L) =
1 . Assuming the results of different sets to be independent, 2 1 1 1 1 1 and similarly for the outcome WWLW has the probability = 2 2 2 2 16 6 the other outcomes. Hence, P(ends in 4 sets) = . 16

4.109 The sample space is listed by means of a tree diagram which is given in Figure 4.4.

(a) S consists of 12 elementary outcomes which are equally likely because of random selection. Of the 12 elementary outcomes, 6 correspond to even numbers so 6 P[even number] = = 0.5 12 (b) There are 9 elementary outcomes where the number is larger than 20, so the 9 required probability is = 0.75 . 12 (c) There are 2 elementary outcomes, namely {23, 24}, for which the number is 2 between 22 and 30, so the required probability is = 0.167 . 12

114

CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY

4.110 (a) The possible assignments of a are listed by the pairs of plot numbers S = {(1, 2), (1,3), (1, 4), (2,3), (2, 4), (3, 4)} (b) Under random assignment, the elementary outcomes are equally likely so each has probability 1/ 6 . 2 1 (i) [Same column] = {(1,3), (2, 4)} , Probability = = 6 3 1 (ii) [different rows and different columns] = {(1, 4), (2,3)} , Probability = . 3 4.111 Consider the plot selected from each row to be assigned to variety a. We list the sample space by drawing a tree diagram which is given in the figure below.

S = {e1 , e2 , e3 , e4 } and the elements are equally likely. 2 1 [same column] = {(1, 3), (2, 4)} , Probability = = . 4 2 4.112 Denote the events
A = 1 appears in the first toss B = 1 appears in the second toss

The the event 1 appears at least once in the two tosses can also be described as either A or B or both occur. Referring to the sample space of Exercise 4.21, this event has the composition {(1,1), (1, 2), (1,3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6), (2,1), (3,1), (4,1), (5,1), (6,1)} 11 1 1 Hence the correct probability is . Indeed P( A) = , P( B) = , and 36 6 6 1 1 12 + = . The outcome (1,1) belongs to each of A and B, and the incorrect 6 6 36 answer has resulted from counting (1,1) twice.

115 4.113 There are 9 letters which are equally likely to be selected.
4 . 9 (b) Among the 9 letters there is one T and one V, so the probability of getting a T 2 or V is . 9

(a) Since there are 4 vowels, the probability of getting a vowel is

4.114 (a) (b) (c) (d)

No. Heavy air traffic occurs on Mondays and Fridays. Yes. The temperature has nothing to do with the day of the week. No. Ozone lower on weekends when not as much automobile exhaust. No. December almost always has highest sales.

4.115 (a) S = {125, 152, 251, 215, 512, 521} 4 2 (b) P(less than 400) = = . 6 3 2 1 (c) P(even number) = = . 6 3 4.116 Let us label the 11 flowers as follows: roses that will open e1 , e2 , e3 roses that will not open e4 , e5 tulips that will open e6 , e7 tulips that will not open e8 , e9 , e10 , e11 (a) The Venn diagram is given in Figure 4.5.

(b) Since [not open] = {e4 , e5 , e8 , e9 , e10 , e11} , 6 P(not open) = = 0.545 . 11

116 4.117 (a) Either a faulty transmission or faulty brakes.

CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY

(b) Transmission, brakes and exhaust system all faulty. (c) No faults with the transmission, brakes or the exhaust system. (d) Either the transmission is not faulty or the brakes are not faulty. 4.118 (a) AB (b) AB (c) ( AB ) ( AB)

4.119 Because P( AB) P( A) P( A B) , we have P( A) = 0.30, P( AB) = 0.1, and P( A B) = 0.50 . 4.120 P( A) = 0.4 + 0.1 + 0.18 = 0.68, P( B C ) = 0.02 + 0.4 + 0.18 = 0.60 , 4.121 (a) ABC (b)
A B C

P( AB) = 0.02 , P( BC ) = 0 . (c) ABC (d) ABC

4.122 (a) The Venn diagram is given in Figure 4.6.

(Note: For parts (b) and (c), we add the relevant entries of the probability table or work with the Venn diagram.) (b) P( AB) = 0.05 + 0.10 = 0.15 P( AC ) = 0.10 + 0.17 = 0.27 P(C ) = 0.05 + 0.05 + 0.18 + 0.20 = 0.48 (c) A A
B 0.15 0.35

B 0.22 0.28

117

4.123 (a) P( BC ) = 0.05 + 0.20 = 0.25 (see Figure 4.6 above.) (b) P( B C ) = P( B) + P(C ) P( BC ) (Addition law) P( B) = 0.05 + 0.10 + 0.20 + 0.15 = 0.50 P(C ) = 0.05 + 0.05 + 0.20 + 0.18 = 0.48 P( BC ) = 0.25 Therefore, P( B C ) = 0.50 + 0.48 0.25 = 0.73 Alternatively, P( B C ) = P( B) + P( BC ) (See Figure 4.6 above.) = 0.50 + 0.23 = 0.73 (c) P( BC ) = 0.10 + 0.15 = 0.25 (d) P( ABC ABC ABC ) = 0.17 + 0.15 + 0.18 = 0.50 4.124 The Venn diagram is given in Figure 4.7. To mark probabilities in the Venn diagram, we start with the intersection of all three events i.e., ABC , fill in the given probability 0.12. Then note that the sets ABC and ABC together make up the intersection AB . Since P( AB) = 0.17 and P( ABC ) = 0.12 , the difference must be P( ABC ) = 0.17 0.12 = 0.05 . We continue this process, and in the final step, obtain P( ABC ) = 1 P( A B C ) = 1 0.88 = 0.12 . Probability Table: B A A C 0.12 0.08 C 0.05 0.20 C 0.21 0.09 B C 0.13 0.12

118

CHAPTER 4. PROBABILITY

4.125 The probabilities can be determined either by using the Venn diagram or the probability table presented in the solution of Exercise 4.124. (a) P( BC ) = 0.05 + 0.20 = 0.25 (by summing all probabilities in B but outside of C) (b) P( A B) = P( A) + P( B) P( AB) (Addition law) = 0.51 + 0.45 0.17 = 0.79 (c) P[exactly two of the three events occur] = P( ABC ) + P( ABC ) + P( ABC ) = 0.05 + 0.21 + 0.08 (see Figure 4.7) = 0.34 . 4.126 (a) P( A) =
2 1 = 6 3 3 1 (b) P( B) = = 6 2 1 (c) P( AB) = 6 P( AB) 1/ 6 1 = = (d) P( A | B) = P( B) 3/ 6 3

(e) P( A B) = P( A) + P( B) P( AB) =

2 3 1 4 2 + = = . 6 6 6 6 3

4.127 P( A | B) =

P( AB) 0.4 = = 0.8 P( B) 0.5 P( A) P( B) = 0.8 0.5 = 0.40 = P( AB) , so A and B are independent.

4.128 (a) The Venn diagram is

119

(b) P( AB) = P( B) P( A | B), Multiplication law 2 = 0.3 = 0.2 3 P( AC ) = P(C ) P( AC ) = 0.25 0.1 = 0.15 P( BA) = P( B) P( AB) = 0.3 0.2 = 0.1 P( ABC ) = P( A) P( AB) P( AC ) = 0.6 0.2 0.15 = 0.25 P( ABC ) = 1 P( A B C ) = 1 0.8 = 0.2 (c) P( ABC ) + P( AB) + P( AC ) = 0.25 + 0.1 + 0.1 = 0.45

4.129 (a) P( AC ) = 0.15 P( A) P(C ) = 0.6 0.25 = 0.15 Because P( AC ) = P( A) P (C ) , the events A and C are independent. (b) P( ABC ) = P( AC ) = 0.15 (see the Venn diagram in Exercise 4.128) P( AB ) = 0.25 + 0.15 = 0.40 P(C ) = 0.15 + 0.1 = 0.25 P( AB ) P(C ) = 0.40 0.25 = 0.1 P( ABC ) , so the events AB and C are not independent. 4.130 (a) Given that the person is male, the probability that he is a moderate to heavy drinker is 0.29. (b) By the law of total probability, P( A) = P( A | B) P( B) + P( A | B) P( B) = (0.12)(0.50) + (0.29)(0.50) = 0.205 (c) By Bayes Formula, P( A | B) P( B) (0.12)(0.50) P( B | A) = = = 0.293 0.205 P( A | B) P( B) + P( A | B) P( B) 4.131 (a) P( A | B ) = P( AB ) P( B ) From the probability table in Exercise 4.122, we get P( AB ) = 0.05 + 0.17 = 0.22

P( B ) = 0.05 + 0.17 + 0.18 + 0.10 = 0.50 0.22 So, P( A | B ) = = 0.44 . 0.50

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P( ABC ) 0.05 = = 0.50 P( AC ) 0.10 (c) From the probability table, we find P( A) = 0.37, P(C ) = 0.48. P( AC ) = 0.10 . Since P( A) P(C ) = 0.37 0.48 = 0.178 P( AC ) , the events A and C are dependent. (b) P( B | AC ) = 4.132 In order to be successful Mr. Hope must receive the good pill in each of the two 1 trials. The probability that he gets the good pill in the first trial P(G1 ) = , and 2 1 that in the second trial P(G2 ) = . 2 1 1 1 Because the trials are independent, P(G1G2 ) = P(G1 ) P(G2 ) = = . Thus, 2 2 4 1 the probability of Mr. Hopes success is only . 4 4.133 (a) S = {e1 , e2 , e3 , e4 } where e1 corresponds to the selection sequence 11, e2 to 12, e3 to 21, and e4 to 22.
10 9 90 = (Because the probability of a #1 marble in the first 15 14 210 10 draw is , and the conditional probability of a #1 marble in the second draw 15 9 given that a #1 marble appears in the first draw, is .) 14 P(e1 ) =

Similarly, we calculate
P(e2 ) = 10 5 50 = 15 14 210 5 10 50 P(e3 ) = = 15 14 210 5 4 20 P(e4 ) = = 15 14 210

50 20 70 1 + = = 210 210 210 3 50 20 70 1 + = = . (c) [Larger than 15] = {e3 , e4 } , Probability = 210 210 210 3

(b) [Even number] = {e2 , e4 } , Probability =

121 4.134 (a) In the total pool of the product, the proportion of defectives and from Line 1 is proportion of defectives and from Line 2 is proportion of defectives and from Line 3 is

0.2 0.1 = 0.020 0.5 0.05 = 0.025 0.3 0.06 = 0.018 Total = 0.063

The pool has a proportion 0.063 or 6.3% defective items. Alternatively, to cast in terms of probability calculation, let us denote by L1 , L2 , and L3 the events that a randomly selected item comes from Line 1, Line 2, and Line 3, respectively. Let D denote the event that the item is defective. The specified percentages represent the following probabilities. P( L1 ) = 0.2, P( L2 ) = 0.5, P( L3 ) = 0.3, P( D | L1 ) = 0.1 P( D | L2 ) = 0.05 P( D | L3 ) = 0.06

By the multiplication law of probability, we have P( DL1 ) = P( L1 ) P ( D | L1 ) = 0.2 0.1 = 0.020 P( DL2 ) = P( L2 ) P( D | L2 ) = 0.5 0.05 = 0.025 P( DL3 ) = P( L3 ) P( D | L3 ) = 0.3 0.06 = 0.018 Since D = DL1 DL2 DL3 , a union of incompatible events, we obtain P( D) = 0.020 + 0.025 + 0.018 = 0.063 or 6.3%. (b) P( L1 | D ) = P( L1D ) 0.020 = = 0.317 . P( D ) 0.063

4.135 (a) & (b) The tree diagram is given below.

NF ND NN

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(i) The elementary outcome probabilities are contained within the above diagram. (ii) P( FF ) + P( FD ) + P( FN ) + P( DF ) + P( NF ) = 0.64 (iii) P( FF ) + P( FD ) + P( DF ) + P( DD) = 0.49 4.136 (a) The Venn diagram is given below.

The possible outcomes are all contained within the above diagram. All outcomes 2 1 are equally likely, so P( A) = P( B) = = and P( AB) = 0 . 6 3 2 2 0 4 2 (b) P( A B) = P( A) + P( B) P( AB) = + = = 6 6 6 6 3 1 1 1 (c) P( A) P( B) = = = P( AB) so the events A and B are independent. 3 3 9 2 1 (d) P( AB) = = . 6 3

11 11 10 9 4.137 There are = = 165 ways to select three trucks at random. If the 3 21 3 companys argument is correct, that there are exactly three noncompliant trucks, then only one selection can consist of three noncompliant vehicles. The 1 probability of selecting all three noncompliant trucks is = 0.0061 , a small 165 probability. It is quite unlikely a random selection would produce the indicated sample so we can question the veracity of the companys claim.
4.138 (a) P(appears only once) = 14376 = 0.0163 884, 647 4343 = 0.0049 (b) P(appears exactly twice) = 884, 647 (c) P(appears more than twice) = 1 P(appears 2 or fewer times) = 1 0.0163 0.0049 = 0.9788 .

123

4.139 Denote G = Good standing, D = Illegal deduction. 11 7 18 G D

(a) The number of possible selections of 4 returns out of 18 is

18 4 = 3060 , all equally likely. 11 4 330 P[Sample has all 4 Gs] = = = .108 . 18 3060 4
(b) P[at least 2 Ds] = P[2 D ' s ] + P[3D ' s ] + P[4 D ' s ]

7 11 2 2 21 55 1155 P[2 D ' s ] = = = 18 3060 3060 4 7 11 3 1 35 11 385 P[3D ' s ] = = = 18 3060 3060 4 7 4 35 P[4 D ' s ] = = 18 3060 4 Adding these we obtain P[at least 2 Ds] = 1155 385 35 1575 + + = = 0.515 . 3060 3060 3060 3060

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4.140 (a) S = {R1R2 , R1G2 , G1 R2 , G1G2 } 6 (b) P(G1 ) = = 0.6 10 (c) Given that a green ball appears in the first draw, the urn contains 4 red balls and 9 green balls prior to drawing the second ball. The probability that a red 4 4 ball will be drawn from this mix is , so P( R2 | G1 ) = . 13 13 (d) G2 = R1G2 G1G2 4 6 24 P( R1G2 ) = P( R1 ) P(G2 | R1 ) = = 10 13 130 6 9 54 P(G1G2 ) = P(G1 ) P(G2 | G1 ) = = 10 13 130
P(G2 ) = P( R1G2 ) + P(G1G2 ) = 24 54 78 + = = 0.6 . 130 130 130

4.141 (a) P(no common birthday) =

365 364 363 364 363 =1 = 0.992 . 365 365 365 365 365 Hence, P(at least two have the same birthday) = 1 0.992 = 0.008 .

(b) For each person there are 365 possible birthdays. Hence, for N persons, the number of possible birthdays is 365 365 ... 365 (N factors) = (365) N . In order that the birthdays of N persons to be all different, the first person can have any of the 365 days, the second person can have any of the remaining 365 1 = 364 days, the third person can have any of the remaining 365 2 = 363 days, .. the Nth person can have any of the remaining 365 N + 1 days. Hence, the number of ways N persons can have all different birthdays is 365 364 ... (365 N + 1) . Therefore, 365 364 ( 365 N + 1) P[No common birthday] = 365N

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