Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 03, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 03, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Heavy rain seen hitting N. India, coast until mid-July
The north eastern quadrant of the country may receive heavy to very heavy rainfall along with the West Coast during the first 15 days of July, US forecasters said. The geography covered is likely to include rainbattered Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh and parts of Gujarat. North-West India (Rajasthan) and the peninsula would most likely witness below normal rains during the period. There is a likelihood of an interaction of monsoon easterlies from the Bay of Bengal with incoming westerlies from the opposite side i.e., North-West India. (Source: Business Line)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 2, 2013
WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19464 5858 59.56 99.6 1243.6

-0.58 -0.70 0.29 1.64 -0.98

4.48 4.43 -0.18 4.49 -2.45

-1.50 -2.15 5.26 8.30 -10.70

11.87 10.97 7.52 18.93 -22.14

.Source: Reuters

Chinas Oilseed Imports Seen Rising by Oil World as Output Falls

China, the worlds largest soybean consumer, may see its oilseed harvest drop to a multi-year low in the next season, spurring an increase in imports as stockpiles decline, Oil World said. Oilseed production may be 48 million metric tons in the 2013-14 season that starts Aug. 1, about 2 million tons less than a year earlier. Soybean imports in June were probably a record 8 million tons, 43 percent more than in the same month last year, with most shipments arriving from Brazil, according to the report. Lower production along with the comparatively low Chinese soybean stocks at the start of the new season will result in a pronounced increase of total Chinese oilseed imports, Oil World said. (Source:
Bloomberg)

UP blames wheat export for low supplies

The Uttar Pradesh (UP) government has blamed wheat export permit for dismal procurement during the current rabi marketing season. Against the target of six million tonnes (mt), the state agencies could procure only 6.82 mt, 11 per cent of the target. However, the government maintained that the public distribution system (PDS) in UP would not suffer owing to low procurement, since the Food Corporation of India (FCI) would supply the requisite foodgrain from the central pool. According to the state food and civil supplies principal secretary, Deepak Trivedi, the export permit for 5 mt of wheat resulted in huge openmarket procurement by traders, which affected procurement during April-June 2013, the annual period for purchase. (Source: Business Standard)

EU imports soybeans to replace soymeal: Oil World

The European Union is increasing imports of soybeans for processing in the region to make up for a shortage of South American soymeal after transport bottlenecks have hindered shipments, Oil World said. EU October 2012/September 2013 soybean imports will rise to 13.5 million tonnes from 12.6 million in the same year-ago period. Imports and crushings are driven by the severe shortage of soymeal, which is subsiding only gradually. outh American exports of soymeal, an important animal feed, have been insufficient to meet demand despite bumper crops this year. Port and transport disruptions in Brazil and a lack of farmer selling in Argentina have prevented soybeans from reaching their final destinations. (Source: Google news)

China's loan curbs turn spinners to cotton imports

China's efforts to curtail imprudent bank lending represent the country's latest policy move to cause unforeseen impacts on the cotton market but, again, encouraging domestic millers to switch to imports. The country's central bank, the People's Bank of China, two weeks ago flagged its willingness to tighten monetary policy, with the aim of achieving more stable economic growth, in a move seen targeted at curtailing banks' appetite for risky loans, and for channelling deposits into off-balance-sheet "shadow banking" vehicles. However, one of the most immediate impacts was felt on the cotton sector, where the move has reduced further spinning mills' appetite for domestic fibre, rather than foreign supplies which, besides often being cheaper even with import duties included, can be bought on easier terms, the International Cotton Advisory Committee said. (Source: www.agrimoney.com)

S. Africa Corn Exports May Pose Threat to Staple Food

South Africa, the continents largest producer of corn, may run out of the yellow variety if exports of the grain rise further, pushing up the cost of white corn, one of the nations staple foods. The nation shipped 79,055 metric tons of yellow corn in the week to June 28, including 54,112 tons to Japan and 23,043 tons to Taiwan. The country has exported 377,367 tons of the grain since the start of the marketing year in May. That compares with 18,333 tons in the same period a year earlier and 413,152 tons for the entire 2013 marketing year that ended in April. (Source:
Bloomberg)

Sugar Harvest in Pakistan Seen Climbing to Record on Planting

Sugar production in Pakistan, Asias fourth-largest producer, may jump as much as 20 percent to a record next year as higher state-set cane prices spur farmers to boost planting, potentially increasing exports. Output may expand to 6 million metric tons in the marketing year starting Nov. 1 from 5 million tons this year, said Shunaid Qureshi, chairman of the Pakistan Sugar Mills Association. That may boost surplus for exports, he said. The growers are getting good prices for their sugar cane, Qureshi said in an interview. There is a chance that the government might increase cane prices in the coming crushing season from an all-time high 172 rupees ($1.73) per 40 kilograms in the 2012-2013 season, he said.
(Source: Bloomberg)

Agriculture minister demands increase in paddy minimum support price to Rs 2,100

BJP-ruled Chhattisgarh has asked the Centre to increase the minimum support price (MSP) for paddy to Rs 2,100 per quintal. Agriculture minister Chandrashekhar Sahu has made the demand in a letter to finance minister P Chidambaram. Late last month, the Centre raised the MSP for common grade paddy to Rs 1,310 per quintal for 2013-14 (JulyJune), a rise of Rs 60 per quintal over last year. According to him, the increase of merely Rs. 60 has disappointed the paddy-producing farmers of Chhattisgarh and other states. (Source: Times of India)

Haryana to bring 25k hectares under poplar cultivation

The Central government has approved financial assistance of Rs 98.50 cr to Haryana to shift 60,000 hectares of land from paddy to alternative crops like maize and guar under the crop diversification programme. Of this, a major chunk of land is proposed to be brought under poplar tree plantation to break the wheat-rice cropping pattern. (Source: Times of India)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 03, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures hit fresh contract low of Rs 3018 per qtl on Tuesday and settled 2.51% lower owing to comfortable supplies in the domestic markets, good monsoon progress and higher sowing of kharif pulses. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts of Chana w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013. The CCEA declared the MSP for kharif pulses. The MSP of the MSP of Tur has been raised by ` 450 to ` 4,300/qtl, moong by ` 100 to ` 4,500/qtl while Urad has been kept unchanged at ` 4,300/qtl. Sowing of kharif pulses have commenced and 10.52 lakh hectares have th been covered as on 28 June compared to normal 1.22 lakh ha. Spillover effect of kharif pulses is capping sharp upside in chana prices. Sowing of kharif pulses was adversely impacted last year and was down by 16 percent due to deficient rains.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX July'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on July 2, 2013 % change Last 3100 3024 Prev day -0.48 -2.51 WoW -3.38 -6.38 MoM -6.45 -3.97
Source: Reuters

YoY -30.96 -31.16

Spread Matrix
Closing 3100 3024 3094 3156 19-Jul-13 -76 0 -

as on July 2, 2013 20-Aug-13 -6 70 0 20-Sep-13 56 132 62 0 as on July 1, 2013 Stocks as on 29th June 80562 51207 11046 142815 Qty in Process 393 2299 268 2960

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. According to third advance Estimates released on 3 May 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 18 mn tn, up 5.76% compared to previous year. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 4.03% lower at 5.95 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 9.25% higher at 12.05 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. However, chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record output of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Erratic weather in M.P. lowered the yield.
rd

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 1 July 80653 53313 11264 145230
st

Qty in Process 473 1626 120 2219

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX August contract

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of April 2013 declined to 0.04 lakh metric tonnes compared to 0.11 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana may decline further as comfortable supplies of chana along with rising area under kharif pulses is exerting downside pressure on the prices. However, the price may not sustain below the MSP levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Aug Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for July 03, 2013 Resistance 3140-3175

3030-3065

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 03, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Higher sowing and smooth monsoon progress continue to exert downside pressure on the domestic soybean futures and settled 0.53% lower on Tuesday. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts of Rapeseed Mustard Seed, Soybean w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013.. The CCEA has increased the MSP of soybean (black) by `300 to `2,500/qtl and soybean (yellow) by `320 to `2,560/qtl. The regulator has withdrawn 10% special cash margin on the long side in July th contract w.e.f. 27 June, 2013. Oilseeds sowing is completed under 60.69 lk ha against 11.82 lk ha last year. Soybean in MP, and Maharashtra was planted on 29.74 and 8.26 lk ha, sharply higher against 2.75 and 2.58 lk ha last year. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 mn tonnes. IMDs forecasts of normal monsoon have raised hopes of better output next season too. International Markets CBOT soybean near month futures closed marginally higher by 0.16% on Tuesday due to tight supplies. However, the new crop far month contracts remained lower pressured by improved crop conditions for newly planted crops in the U.S. Farm Belt. Further USDA raised planting estimates to 77.728 mn acres against March forecast of 77.126 mn acres. As per USDA weekly crop progress report, 96 pct soybean planting is completed vs 92 pct a wk ago and 98 pct 5 yr average. U.S. soybean stocks as of June 1 stood at 435 mn bushels, while traders expected 441 mn bushels.

Market Highlights

as on July 2, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.69 -2.36 -0.53 0.16 0.42 -0.38 -2.63 3.13 -0.12 -2.33

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT July'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX July '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3720 3630 1573 3480 3400

MoM -2.90 -2.25 4.17 -0.1 -2

YoY -5.78 -9.02 2.66 -12.35 -13.75

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3720 Spot 19-Jul-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 3629.5 3138.5 3132 0 -491 0 19-Jul-13 -90.5 18-Oct-13 -581.5

as on July 2, 2013 20-Nov-13 -588 -497.5 -6.5 0 as on July 2, 2013 20-Aug-13 -35.45 45 0 20-Sep-13 6.55 87 42 0 as on July 1, 2013 Qty in Process 271 0 0 271 as on July 1, 2013 Qty in Process 0 294 20 0 817 120 40 1291 NCDEX October contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3480.45 3400 3445 3487 19-Jul-13 -80.45 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 1sy July 20074 1285 401 21760 Stocks as on 1st July 3040 4155 20489 634 61518 5153 1730 96719 Qty in Process 485 0 0 485 Qty in Process 0 294 70 0 906 40 0 1310 Stocks as on 29th June 20044 1285 401 21760 Stocks as on 29th June 3040 4155 20489 634 61396 5073 1670 96457

Outlook
Overall trend in the domestic markets remain on the downside as higher sowing and above normal monsoon estimates may pressurize prices. However, expectations of depreciation in the Rupee may support prices.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed July futures declined 0.38% on Tuesday as higher supplies in the domestic markets and increase in sowing area under kharif oilseeds exerted downside pressure on the prices. Spillover effect from other oilseeds is also seen on the mustard prices. Sowing of this Rabi crop was up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha in 2012-13. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Outlook
Overall trend in mustard remains weak on account of higher supplies in the domestic markets. However, arrivals are declining gradually with fall in the prices, thus restricting sharp downside in the prices over short term.

Technical Chart Soybean

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 03, 2013 Support 3095-3115 3410-3428 Resistance 3160-3180 3462-3480
Source: Telequote www.angelcommodities.com

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Wednesday| July 03, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Refine soy oil traded on a mixed note and settled marginally higher by 0.12% on Tuesday as Rupee weakened towards the end. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts of Refined Soy oil w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013. Soy Oil prices had declined sharply in the last one week amidst good sowing prospects of oilseeds in the domestic markets coupled with appreciation in the Indian rupee in the last two trading session. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 40.2% to 917,964 tn in May, after dropping for 3 months, mainly due to surge in palm oil imports. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean. Edible oil stocks as on June 1, 2013 at various ports were estimated at 6.75 lakh tonnes and about 13 lakh tonnes are in the pipeline.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 681.25 673.00 46.92 2333 496.50 Prev day -0.40 0.12 0.15 -0.17 -1.00

as on July 2, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTJuly'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia July '13 Fut CPO-MCX- July '13 Futures

WoW -2.79 -2.32 -0.47 -2.79 -1.25

MoM -5.16 -4.85 -3.02 -1.14 3.35

YoY -9.64 -11.51 -10.08 -23.61 -12.89

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 681.25 673 663.7 656.65 19-Jul-13 -8.25 0 20-Aug-13 -17.55 -9.3 0 -

as on July 2, 2013 20-Sep-13 -24.6 -16.35 -7.05 0 as on July 2, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil may trade on a negative note today due to weak bean prices. However, rupee movement would drive prices in the intraday.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Jul-13 31-Aug-13 30-Sept-13 Closing 496.5 497.3 495 31-Jul-13 0 31-Aug-13 0.8 0 -

30-Sept-13 -1.5 -2.3 0 NCDEX August contract

Crude Palm Oil

CPO traded on mixed note with a negative bias yesterday tracking weak international markets and settled 1% lower on Tuesday. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for July, up from 9% in June.Exports of Malaysian palm oil products in June rose 7 percent to 1,350,311 tonnes from 1,262,281 tonnes shipped during May as buyers stocked up for Ramadan that falls in July. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports hit a record high in May by jumping 47.5 percent from April. The world's top buyer of vegetable oils imported 373,837 tonnes of refined palm oil in May. The jump in refined palm oil purchases will raise the clamour for increasing import duties to protect local oilseed growers and refiners against cheaper supplies from major exporters Indonesia and Malaysia. But the Indian government is yet to pay any heed as inflation has only just reached comfortable levels. Import of RBD palmolein touched 3,73,837 tn in May 2013, highest in any single month since edible oil imports were allowed under OGL in 1994, the Solvent Extractors Association of India said.

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX July contract

Outlook
CPO prices may trade higher today as increase in export tax by Indonesia may support an upside in the prices. Also, expected depreciation in the Indian rupee may also support prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Aug NCDEX Futures CPO MCX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 03, 2013 Support 656-660 490-493 Resistance 667-670 500-504

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 03, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
After gaining in the early trades, jeera prices corrected from higher levels towards the end of the day on account of good supplies in the domestic markets coupled as well as good rainfall in the jeera belts and settled 0.45% lower. However, good export demand limited the downside. Good rains in the jeera belts have made the soil fertile for planting which commences in October. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. Exports have been reported mainly to Singapore, Europe and Dubai. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. Jeera of Indian origin is being offered in the international market at $2,625 tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13703 13298 5856 6024 Prev day 0.35 -0.45 1.86 -0.89

as on July 2, 2013 % Change WoW -0.47 -2.60 2.64 0.53 MoM 1.80 2.21 -2.44 4.62 YoY -2.45 -2.58 58.08 43.29

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Fut Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX July '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 13702.7 13297.5 13625 13982.5 19-Jul-13 -405.2 0 20-Aug-13 -77.7 327.5 0 -

as on July 2, 2013 20-Sep-13 279.8 685 357.5 0 as on July 2, 2013 19-Jul-13 168.25 0 20-Aug-13 302.25 134 0 20-Sep-13 420.25 252 118 0 as on July 1, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 29th June Process 1106 7421 8527 5329 NCDEX August contract 36 399 435 140

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 10,000 bags on Tuesday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 5855.75 6024 6158 6276

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera may trade on a mixed note today. Good overseas is expected to support prices while good supplies pressurize prices. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep the prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 1st July 1112 7477 8589 5378 Qty in Process 92 240 332 338

Turmeric
Turmeric futures which opened higher extending previous days gains corrected towards the end on account of profit booking and settled 0.89% lower. However, the spot prices closed 1.86% higher due to arrivals of quality turmeric as well as overseas demand. Demand from stockists was also reported. However, good rains have capped sharp gains the spot markets.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi were reported at 3,000 bags and 4,000 bags respectively on Tuesday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is th reported at 0.06 lakh ha as on 26 June, 2013. Production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric may trade on a mixed note with a positive bias today. Quality arrivals coupled with overseas as well as upcountry demand may support prices. Lower arrivals in the spot markets may also support prices. However, huge carryover stocks may pressurize prices at higher levels. Good monsoon progress, thereby prospects of good sowing may also pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX August contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Aug Futures Turmeric NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for July 03, 2013

Support 13400-13520 6000-6080 Resistance 13740-13850 6270-6374

www.angelcommodities.com Source: Telequote

Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 03, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
After witnessing short coverings on Monday, Sugar futures continued to decline and settled 0.47% lower on account of declining demand from the bulk consumers. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation and with strong demand in Gulf and African states due to the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan. (Source: Reuters dated 1st July, 2013) The recent rains in the drought affected sugarcane areas in the Southern and Western parts of the country have eased damage concerns thereby exerting downside pressure on the prices. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 44.55 lakh ha as compared to 46.78 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX July '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE July '13 Fut `/qtl 2993 `/qtl 495.6 $/tonne 367.33 $/tonne -0.96 -0.84 -0.47 Last 3069

as on July 2, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.33 0.71 -0.37 -4.23 -3.16 MoM 0.59 -0.89 3.83 -0.12 YoY 1.20 1.91 -19.99 -22.76

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3068.65 2993 3046 3090 19-Jul-13 -75.65 0 20-Aug-13 -22.65 53 0 -

as on July 2, 2013 20-Sep-13 21.35 97 44 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. According to ISMA, Indias Sugar production between October -April stood at 24.52 mn tn, lower by 3 percent during the same period last year. Maharashtras production dipped 10% to 8 mn tn while production in Uttar Pradesh increased by 7% to 7.43 mn tn. India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at higher against the domestic consumption of around 22.5 mln tn for 2012-13.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on July 1 2448 7697 1022 1228 12395 Qty in Process 250 100 0 0 350 Stocks as on 29th June 2448 7750 1022 1228 12448

as on July 1, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

Global Sugar Updates

ICE Sugar futures resumed its southward journey and settled 0.96% lower on account of abundant supplies from Brazil coupled with expectations of a dry July which may boost the harvesting and crushing. Sugar production in Brazil's main cane-growing region which was up by almost 59% till May fell in first half of June because wet weather held up crushing. Since April 1 to 15 June, mills have produced 7.39 mn tn of sugar, up 51%. Mills have used 58.1% of the cane crush for ethanol since the start of the season - up sharply from 54.4% at this time last year - with the rest used for sugar. Prices have declined sharply over the past few months and touched three years low last week due to three back to back years of sugar surplus coupled with supplies from Brazil. Brazils cane industry association, Unica, projects main center-south sugar cane crop will produce a record 35.5 mn tn of sugar in the 2013/14.

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX August contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
In the current week, we expect sugar prices to consolidate at the current levels as weak rupee has reduced imports while the same has made exports attractive. Also, recovery in the international markets may restrict further fall in the prices. However, upside will also be capped as good monsoon is raising hopes of good yields.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Aug NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for July 03, 2013 Support 3023-3035 Resistance 3065-3083

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 03, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
MCX Cotton futures traded on a positive note yesterday and settled 0.46% higher due to demand for cotton from yarn manufacturers coupled with weakness in the Rupee. However NCDEX Kapas declined by 0.33% owing to higher cotton planting this season along with good monsoon. The CCEA has increased the MSP of Cotton by `100 to `3,700/qtl for medium staple and `4,000/qtl for long staple. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the seaosn (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) is reported at 318.62, down 2.2 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1051.5 19530 83.22 92.7

as on July 2, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.33 -2.28 0.46 0.83 -1.27 -2.20 1.53 2.26 MoM YoY -2.28 #N/A 5.00 17.86 4.86 15.34 3.69 11.75
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 28-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 19530 20270 20120 28-Jun-13 0

as on July 2, 2013 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 740 0 590 -150 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting has been reported at 55.76 lakh ha as against 31.38 lakh ha during the same period last year. Cotton acreage has seen a significant jump over last year in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, while the planting is over in the Northern States of Punjab and Haryana.

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
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Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on July 1 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400

as on July 1, 2013

Stocks as on 29th June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400 NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton futures declined by 1.27% as mills are avoiding buying coupled with a stronger Dollar. ICAC lowered projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. Demand from mills in China is expected to remain strong. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates. ICE Futures U.S. certified stocks are at three-year highs of 600,000 bales. But almost a fifth of that total was already slated to be delivered against the nearby contract when it expires on July 9. (Reuters). This is Large enough to deplete swelling exchange stocks 20 percent or more, and tighten supplies heading into the new 2013/14 crop year. Rains in West Texas raised cotton prospects in top US cotton producing state last week which exerted downside pressure on the prices. A U.S. crop report released this week showed continued delays for new cotton crop, adding to a sense of tightness in upcoming U.S. supplies.

Technical Chart - Kapas

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX July contract

Outlook
Cotton may trade on a mixed note. Good yarn demand coupled with ICACs estimates of lower global production may support prices. Higher MSP may also support prices. However, higher planting in India and weak international prices may pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX July Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for July 03, 2013 Support 1042-1048 19360-19450 Resistance 1060-1066 19630-19710
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Wednesday| July 03, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar seed as well as Guar gum July Futures settled 1.69% and 2.85% lower respectively on Tuesday tracking higher sowing of the guar crop. Since the resumption of Guarseed and Guar gum contracts on the futures platform, prices are on a downward trend on account of host of factors like bumper summer harvest in Gujarat, smooth monsoon progress and expected higher sowing.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX July 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX July13 Fut `/qtl 6970 `/qtl 20121 `/qtl 19770 `/qtl -2.85 -1.34 -1.69 Last Prev day 7094 -1.82

as on July 2, 2013 % change WoW -5.42 -4.26 -6.21 -6.13 MoM -14.65 -11.99 -18.23 -17.76 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this years monsoon has so far upto 30 June been 32% above the LPA. IMD in its second long range forecast predicted monsoon in Northwest India to be 94 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The major guar growing states in India are Rajasthan, Haryana, and Gujarat. Sowing in the irrigated areas takes place during early June while in the rain fed areas it starts with the onset of monsoon in July. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 27 June, 2013 stood at 2.83 lakh hectares compared with 45000 hectares sown last year. Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.
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Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 7093.75 6970 5710 5590 19-Jul-13 -123.75 0 20-Aug-13 -1383.75 -1260 0 -

as on July 2, 2013 20-Sep-13 -1503.75 -1380 -120 0 as on July 2, 2013 20-Aug-13 -3220.55 -2870 0 20-Sep-13 -3720.55 -3370 -500 0 as on July 1, 2013 Stocks as on 29th June 59 81 Qty in Process 0 0

NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 20120.55 19770 16900 16400 19-Jul-13 -350.55 0 -

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Stocks as on 1 July 59 81
st

Qty in Process 0 0

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Early monsoon and higher sowing so far has raised hopes of timely harvesting. This may keep prices under downside pressure. However, sharp downside may be restricted as farmers might hold back their stocks at lower prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 03, 2013 Support 5530-5620 5530-5610 16550-16720 16570-16730 Resistance 5810-5900 5800-5900 17170-17350 17200-17370

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com