Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Discriminant Analysis
Example 9.1: Consider the following data on financial
ration for solvent and bankrupted companies
Financial Ratios of Bankrupt and Solvent Companies, Altman (1968)
Source: Morrison (1990). Multivariate Statistical Methods,
3rd ed. McGraw-Hill
X1 = Working Capital / Total Assets
X2 = Retained Earnings / Total Assets
X3 = Earnings Before Interest and Taxes / Total Assets
X4 = Market Value of Equity / Total Value of Liabilities
X5 = Sales / Total Assets
Group, 1 = Bankrupt 2 = Solvent
Group
X1
X2
1
36.7 -62.8
1
24.0
3.3
1
-61.6 -120.8
1
-1.0 -18.1
1
18.9
-3.8
1
-57.2 -61.2
1
3.0 -20.3
1
-5.1 -194.5
1
17.9
20.8
1
5.4 -106.1
1
23.0 -39.4
1
-67.6 -164.1
1
-185.1 -308.9
1
13.5
7.2
1
-5.7 -118.3
1
72.4 -185.9
1
17.0 -34.6
1
-31.2 -27.9
1
14.1 -48.2
1
-60.6 -49.2
1
26.2 -19.2
1
7.0 -18.1
1
53.1 -98.0
1
-17.2 -129.0
1
32.7
-4.0
1
26.7
-8.7
1
-7.7 -59.2
1
18.0 -13.1
1
2.0 -38.0
1
-35.3 -57.9
1
5.1
-8.8
1
0.0 -64.7
1
25.2 -11.4
X3
-89.5
-3.5
-103.2
-28.8
-50.6
-56.6
-17.4
-25.8
-4.3
-22.9
-35.7
-17.7
-65.8
-22.6
-34.2
-280.0
-19.4
6.3
6.8
-17.2
-36.7
-6.5
-20.8
-14.2
-15.8
-36.3
-12.8
-17.6
1.6
0.7
-9.1
-4.0
4.8
X4
54.1
20.9
24.7
36.2
26.4
11.0
8.0
6.5
22.6
23.8
69.1
8.7
35.7
96.1
21.7
12.5
35.5
7.0
16.6
7.2
90.4
16.5
26.6
267.9
177.4
32.5
21.3
14.6
7.7
13.7
100.9
0.7
7.0
X5
1.7
1.1
2.5
1.1
0.9
1.7
1.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1.2
1.3
0.8
2.0
1.5
6.7
3.4
1.3
1.6
0.3
0.8
0.9
1.7
1.3
2.1
2.8
2.1
0.9
1.2
0.8
0.9
0.1
0.9
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
35.2
38.8
14.0
55.1
59.3
33.6
52.8
45.6
47.4
40.0
69.0
34.2
47.0
15.4
56.9
43.8
20.7
33.8
35.8
24.4
48.9
49.9
54.8
39.0
53.0
20.1
53.7
46.1
48.3
46.7
60.3
17.9
24.7
43.0
47.0
-3.3
35.0
46.7
20.8
33.0
26.1
68.6
37.3
59.0
49.6
12.5
37.3
35.3
49.5
18.1
31.4
21.5
8.5
40.6
34.6
19.9
17.4
54.7
53.5
35.6
39.4
53.1
39.8
59.5
16.3
21.7
16.4
16.0
4.0
20.8
12.6
12.5
23.6
10.4
13.8
33.4
23.1
23.8
7.0
34.1
4.2
25.1
13.5
15.7
-14.4
5.8
5.8
26.4
26.7
12.6
14.6
20.6
26.4
30.5
7.1
13.8
7.0
20.4
-7.8
99.1
126.5
91.7
72.3
724.1
152.8
475.9
287.9
581.3
228.8
406.0
126.6
53.4
570.1
240.3
115.0
63.1
144.8
90.0
149.1
82.0
310.0
239.9
60.5
771.7
307.5
289.5
700.0
164.4
229.1
226.6
105.6
118.6
1.3
1.9
2.7
1.9
0.9
2.4
1.5
2.1
1.6
3.5
5.5
1.9
1.8
1.5
0.9
2.6
4.0
1.9
1.0
1.5
1.8
1.8
2.3
1.3
1.7
1.1
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.2
2.0
1.0
1.6
X1
-2.83
41.40
5.40
45.60
45.88
14.21
2104.57
201.99
6.95
-0.63
-2.09
-0.37
257.50
55.00
-185.10
14.00
72.40
69.00
33
33
X2
-62.51
35.24
-39.40
35.60
71.31
16.51
5085.48
272.50
3.31
-0.33
-1.69
-0.18
329.70
71.90
-308.90
-3.30
20.80
68.60
33
33
X3
-31.78
15.32
-17.70
14.60
51.35
10.87
2637.18
118.11
17.55
0.71
-3.82
-0.56
286.80
48.50
-280.00
-14.40
6.80
34.10
33
33
X4
40.05
254.67
21.70
164.40
54.94
206.57
3018.22
42669.19
9.51
0.72
2.91
1.31
267.20
718.30
0.70
53.40
267.90
771.70
33
33
X5
1.50
1.94
1.20
1.80
1.16
0.93
1.35
0.86
12.30
6.29
3.03
2.18
6.60
4.60
0.10
0.90
6.70
5.50
33
33
Mean
Variance
Observations
df
F
P(F<=f) one-tail
F Critical one-tail
Bankrupt
1.50303
1.350928
33
32
1.561835
0.106347
1.80448
Solvent
1.939394
0.864962
33
32
Solvent
0
0
0
2
7
17
7
0
Histogram
EBIT / Total Assets
18
16
Frequency
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Bankrupt
40
25
10
-5
-20
-35
< -51
Solvent
More complete use of group separation information, however, can be given by discriminant analysis (DA).
p variables
q exclusive groups
2. The first new variable has the best discriminating power w.r.t the given groups.
The second new variable has the second
best discriminating power and is uncorrelated with the first one, the third has
the third best discriminating power and is
uncorrelated with the previous ones, etc.
yj = aj1x1 + + ajpxp,
10
11
The idea in deriving the discriminant functions is to divide the total variation into between group and within group variation
(2)
T = B + W,
12
BW1.
The resulting eigenvectors form the coefficients for the discriminant functions yj , j = 1, . . . , k
with k = min(q 1, p).
The functions are called canonical discriminant functions.
13
65 DF Total
64 DF Within Classes
1 DF Between Classes
Frequency
Weight
Proportion
1
2
33
33
33.0000
33.0000
0.500000
0.500000
14
Variable
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
Variable
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
GROUP = 1
DF = 32
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
2104.5659
1834.1637
-266.4029
249.8980
18.0357
1834.1637
5085.4767
1632.2018
177.7665
-15.6653
-266.4029
1632.2018
2637.1822
168.3066
-46.6066
249.8980
177.7665
168.3066
3018.2188
1.6108
18.0357
-15.6653
-46.6066
1.6108
1.3509
GROUP = 2
DF = 32
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
201.986
117.413
16.740
974.165
1.921
117.413
272.496
52.076
1630.092
0.879
16.740
52.076
118.108
814.591
2.762
974.165
1630.092
814.591
42669.190
-14.529
1.921
0.879
2.762
-14.529
0.865
15
Mean
Variance
Std Dev
66
66
66
66
66
19.28485
-13.63485
-8.23182
147.35909
1.72121
1632
5064
1920
34186
1.13924
40.39972
71.15836
43.81308
184.89362
1.06735
GROUP = 1
Variable
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
Mean
Variance
Std Dev
33
33
33
33
33
-2.83030
-62.51212
-31.78182
40.04545
1.50303
2105
5085
2637
3018
1.35093
45.87555
71.31253
51.35350
54.93832
1.16229
GROUP = 2
Variable
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
Mean
Variance
Std Dev
33
33
33
33
33
41.40000
35.24242
15.31818
254.67273
1.93939
201.98563
272.49627
118.10841
42669
0.86496
14.21216
16.50746
10.86777
206.56522
0.93003
16
Pooled
STD
40.3997
71.1584
43.8131
184.8936
1.0673
33.9599
51.7589
37.1166
151.1413
1.0526
Variable
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
Num DF= 1
Den DF= 64
Between
STD
R-Squared
RSQ/
(1-RSQ)
31.2755
69.1229
33.3047
151.7644
0.3086
0.304266
0.479063
0.293363
0.342055
0.042428
0.4373
0.9196
0.4152
0.5199
0.0443
Pr > F
27.9892
58.8555
26.5698
33.2726
2.8357
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0971
M=1.5
Value
0.369760775
0.630239225
1.704451275
1.704451275
N=29
F
20.4534
20.4534
20.4534
20.4534
Num DF
Den DF
Pr > F
5
5
5
5
60
60
60
60
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
17
Canonical
Correlation
Adjusted
Canonical
Correlation
Approx
Standard
Error
Squared
Canonical
Correlation
0.793876
0.781803
0.045863
0.630239
Eigenvalues of INV(E)*H
= CanRsq/(1-CanRsq)
Eigenvalue
1
Difference
Proportion
Cumulative
1.0000
1.0000
1.7045
Likelihood
Ratio
Approx F
Num DF
Den DF
Pr > F
0.36976078
20.4534
60
0.0001
0.694823
0.871854
0.682260
0.736708
0.259462
18
1.000000
1.000000
1.000000
1.000000
1.000000
0.506539
0.734533
0.493528
0.552283
0.161231
0.1404518774
0.6028563830
0.6695203123
0.5616859665
0.5320432994
0.1180635365
0.4385036080
0.5671902048
0.4591503359
0.5246858501
19
0.0034765558
0.0084720383
0.0152812900
0.0030378872
0.4984713894
CAN1
1
2
-1.285613175
1.285613175
20
21
22
Example 9.3: (Continued) From the within canonical structure we observe that X2 (Retained earnings
/ Total assets) has the highest correlation with the
discriminant function. Next come X4 (Market value
of equity / Total Value of Liabilities), X1 (Working
capital / Total Assets) and X3 (Earnings before interest and taxes / Total assets), whereas X5 (Sales /
Total Assets) is small, but it has a large standardized
coefficient.
Summing up, profitable and companies whose market
value is on a high level are the properties preventing
from the bankruptcy.
23
24
Example 9.4. Testing for the equality of the population covariance matrices.
(4)
H0 : 1 = 2 ,
25
Sepal
Sepal
Pedal
Pedal
length
WIdth
Length
Width
26
27
149 DF Total
147 DF Within Classes
2 DF Between Classes
Frequency
Weight
Proportion
50
50
50
50.0000
50.0000
50.0000
0.333333
0.333333
0.333333
SETOSA
VERSICOLOR
VIRGINICA
M=0.5
Value
Wilks Lambda
0.023438631
Pillais Trace
1.191898825
Hotelling-Lawley Trace 32.47732024
Roys Greatest Root
32.1919292
N=71
F
199.145
53.4665
580.532
1166.96
Num DF
Den DF
Pr > F
8
8
8
4
288
290
286
145
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
0.0001
1
2
Canonical
Correlation
Adjusted
Canonical
Correlation
Approx
Standard
Error
Squared
Canonical
Correlation
0.984821
0.471197
0.984508
0.461445
0.002468
0.063734
0.969872
0.222027
Eigenvalues of INV(E)*H
= CanRsq/(1-CanRsq)
1
2
Eigenvalue
Difference
Proportion
Cumulative
32.1919
0.2854
31.9065
.
0.9912
0.0088
0.9912
1.0000
1
2
Likelihood
Ratio
Approx F
Num DF
Den DF
Pr > F
0.02343863
0.77797337
199.1453
13.7939
8
3
288
145
0.0001
0.0001
SEPALLEN
SEPALWID
PETALLEN
PETALWID
CAN1
CAN2
0.791888
-0.530759
0.984951
0.972812
0.217593
0.757989
0.046037
0.222902
Sepal
Sepal
Petal
Petal
Length
Width
Length
Width
29
in
in
in
in
mm.
mm.
mm.
mm.
SEPALLEN
SEPALWID
PETALLEN
PETALWID
CAN1
CAN2
0.991468
-0.825658
0.999750
0.994044
0.130348
0.564171
0.022358
0.108977
Sepal
Sepal
Petal
Petal
Length
Width
Length
Width
in
in
in
in
mm.
mm.
mm.
mm.
Length
Width
Length
Width
in
in
in
in
mm.
mm.
mm.
mm.
SEPALLEN
SEPALWID
PETALLEN
PETALWID
CAN1
CAN2
0.222596
-0.119012
0.706065
0.633178
0.310812
0.863681
0.167701
0.737242
Sepal
Sepal
Petal
Petal
30
SEPALLEN
SEPALWID
PETALLEN
PETALWID
CAN1
CAN2
-0.686779533
-0.668825075
3.885795047
2.142238715
0.019958173
0.943441829
-1.645118866
2.164135931
Sepal
Sepal
Petal
Petal
Length
Width
Length
Width
in
in
in
in
mm.
mm.
mm.
mm.
SEPALLEN
SEPALWID
PETALLEN
PETALWID
CAN1
CAN2
-.4269548486
-.5212416758
0.9472572487
0.5751607719
0.0124075316
0.7352613085
-.4010378190
0.5810398645
Sepal
Sepal
Petal
Petal
Length
Width
Length
Width
in
in
in
in
mm.
mm.
mm.
mm.
Sepal
Sepal
Petal
Petal
Length
Width
Length
Width
in
in
in
in
mm.
mm.
mm.
mm.
SEPALLEN
SEPALWID
PETALLEN
PETALWID
CAN1
CAN2
-.0829377642
-.1534473068
0.2201211656
0.2810460309
0.0024102149
0.2164521235
-.0931921210
0.2839187853
CAN1
CAN2
-7.607599927
1.825049490
5.782550437
0.215133017
-0.727899622
0.512766605
31
32
Example 9.6: Bankruptcy risk and signal to reorganization of a company (Laitinen, Luoma, Pynn
onen
1996, UV, Discussion Papers 200)
33
34
Sample statistics:
B1 (n=20)
Variable Mean Std Dev
ROI -10.24 8.60
TCF -13.32 10.83
QRA 0.58 0.39
SCA -0.61 20.22
DSR 1.09 0.55
**=significant at level 0.01
***=significant at level 0.001
B2 (n=20)
Mean Std Dev
3.52 5.59
0.13 2.31
0.57 0.55
-4.75 18.79
0.69 0.25
N3 (n=17)
Mean Std Dev
2.27 7.14
0.97 5.00
1.14 0.70
13.62 13.19
0.88 0.34
N4 (n=23) F for eq
Mean Std Dev of means
12.02 5.96 37.66***
6.47 5.67 32.48***
0.85 0.42 4.95**
23.13 19.55 10.39***
0.57 0.28 7.62***
35
The results indicate that also the third canonical discriminant function is statistically significant.
36
Table 11. Canonical structure and Standardized canonical coefficients both as pooled within.
Variable CAN1
ROI 0.702
TCF 0.643
QRA 0.101
SCA 0.252
DSR -0.306
37
38
Group differences:
39
CAN1, the financial performance, shows that the financial performance is the main characteristic differentiating healthy and bankruptcy firms (as expected).
CAN2, controversy dynamic liquidity and static ratios,
is differentiating characteristic between reorganizable
non-bankrupt and reorganizable bankrupt firms.
CAN3, controversy between liquidity and other ratios,
reorganizable non-bankrupt firms and healthy firms.
The distinction is probably due to the fact that nonbankrupt firms may have cash reserves (high liquidity),
but do not use it profitably.
40
Classification
The other main usage of discriminant analysis is to predict from which of the given
classes a given observation is coming from
(decease diagnostics, bankruptcy prediction,
etc.).
The goal is to minimize the misclassification
rate, (two groups labeled as 1 and 2)
(6)
where P (E) denotes the misclassification probability, pi is the probability that an observation is from group i, and P (j|i) denotes
the probability that an observation coming
from the group j is classified to the group i,
i, j = 1, 2, and p1 + p2 = 1.
The probabilities pi indicate the prior probabilities or the population proportion of the
group i.
41
Frequency
33
33
Weight
33.0000
33.0000
Proportion
0.500000
0.500000
Prior
Probability
0.500000
0.500000
42
Discriminant Analysis
Covariance
Matrix Rank
5
1
0
6.61120
2
6.61120
0
43
mvetvl (x4)
sta (x5);
Response Profile
Ordered
Value
Group
Total
Frequency
1
2
1
2
33
33
Criterion
AIC
SC
-2 Log L
Intercept
Only
Intercept
and
Covariates
93.495
95.685
91.495
19.804
24.183
15.804
44
45
Prob
Level
0.500
1
1
Intercept
reta
1
1
1
DF
Correct
95.5
False
NEG
5.9
0.1530
0.0020
Wald
Pr > ChiSq
<.0001
<.0001
0.0020
Pr > ChiSq
Percentages
Sensi- Speci- False
tivity ficity
POS
93.9
97.0
3.1
Classification Table
2.0417
9.5805
Standard
Error
Chi-Square
0.8165
0.0571
Incorrect
NonEvent Event
1
2
1.1666
-0.1767
Estimate
Correct
NonEvent Event
31
32
DF
Parameter
75.6917
31.6182
9.5805
Chi-Square
Likelihood Ratio
Score
Wald
Test
46