Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
01 July 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
www.intellisys.uk.com
01 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
www.intellisys.uk.com
01 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
01 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
www.intellisys.uk.com
01 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 5 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
383.00
288.60
427.00
Neutral
Buy
Target
564
Beta
0.67
CHEMRING GROUP
284.10
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
330
0.66
COBHAM
262.10
190.10
293.40
Neutral
Neutral
280
0.82
MEGGITT
517.50
366.20
534.50
Neutral
Neutral
496
1.32
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1134.00
799.39
1225.00
Neutral
Neutral
1104
1.07
SMITHS GROUP
1308.00
1011.00
1390.00
Neutral
Sell
1080
0.71
1713.00
1424.00
1843.00
Neutral
Sell
1601
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
301.30
180.60
313.40
Neutral
Neutral
295
2.02
INCHCAPE
501.00
330.60
577.50
Neutral
Neutral
546
1.48
LOOKERS
107.75
63.00
110.00
Neutral
Sell
95
1.23
26.75
13.50
26.75
Neutral
Buy
37
1.11
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
278.45
150.55
333.85
Neutral
Sell
-847
1.94
682.00
510.60
769.90
Neutral
Buy
823
1.17
63.16
28.76
63.16
Sell
Sell
1.89
273.50
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-174
1.35
STANDARD CHARTERED
1427.00
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3271
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
505.00
399.20
588.50
Neutral
Sell
452
0.55
DIAGEO
1880.00
1642.00
2085.00
Neutral
Neutral
2046
0.55
SABMILLER
3152.50
2555.00
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
4117
0.95
BARR (AG)
Target
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALENT
328.00
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Buy
427
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
307.20
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
529
1.23
CARCLO
368.00
342.75
503.00
Neutral
Sell
142
0.73
2477.00
2164.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3219
1.04
219.40
179.00
275.00
Neutral
Buy
302
0.99
1.45
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2628.00
2080.27
2750.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4318
VICTREX
1544.00
1185.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1329
1.14
SYNTHOMER
192.00
127.40
225.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
369
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
204.50
161.00
225.00
Neutral
Buy
283
1.00
www.intellisys.uk.com
01 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 6 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
92.00
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
262
Beta
BALFOUR BEATTY
238.40
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1060
0.80
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
309.60
132.20
346.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
578
1.58
1.15
0.51
BELLWAY
1270.00
801.50
1377.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2715
2131.00
1343.00
2207.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3329
0.66
BOOT (HENRY)
172.00
115.50
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
347
0.83
762.50
451.00
778.50
Neutral
Buy
993
1.20
CARILLION
276.40
235.50
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1458
1.12
CLARKE (T)
49.00
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
366
0.82
COSTAIN GROUP
278.25
202.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1072
0.57
1335.00
1090.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
823
1.14
GALLIFORD TRY
934.50
606.00
999.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2794
1.01
KELLER
991.00
357.25
1011.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2242
1.26
1145.00
1106.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5322
0.97
64.75
50.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
213
1.07
1.39
CRH
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
MARSHALLS
132.25
76.00
142.00
Neutral
Buy
191
609.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4296
0.87
16.75
10.63
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
57
1.15
NORCROS
1181.00
565.78
1280.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1904
1.20
REDROW
PERSIMMON
218.00
120.90
238.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
433
1.09
SIG
1.79
169.30
88.85
179.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
499
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
44.00
44.00
325.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4104
0.88
TAYLOR WIMPEY
95.75
42.72
103.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
216
1.67
TRAVIS PERKINS
1456.00
970.50
1611.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4179
2.01
WOLSELEY
3033.00
2237.39
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5684
1.46
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1123.00
994.50
1365.00
Neutral
Sell
991
0.75
624.00
522.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
753
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
118.75
105.50
144.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
214
1.29
INVENSYS
412.60
217.33
418.00
Neutral
Sell
310
1.41
LAIRD
177.50
171.10
249.30
Neutral
Buy
233
2.13
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1209.00
1200.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1054
1.00
RENISHAW
1546.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2371
1.26
SPECTRIS
1910.00
1459.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2343
1.52
0.08
0.07
0.13
Neutral
Sell
-0
0.84
TT ELECTRONICS
153.00
114.00
178.50
Neutral
Buy
229
1.58
XAAR
783.50
223.25
813.50
Neutral
Sell
358
1.11
DIALIGHT
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
01 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 7 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
82.50
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Buy
119
1.28
BODYCOTE
524.00
310.30
563.00
Neutral
Buy
598
1.60
CASTINGS
385.00
291.00
385.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
616
0.99
VESUVIUS
367.60
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
913
2.20
FENNER
307.00
307.00
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
498
1.42
HALMA
503.50
395.50
538.50
Neutral
Sell
351
0.75
450.00
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Neutral
475
1.37
1240.00
776.00
1359.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6094
1.41
259.90
220.30
305.00
Neutral
Sell
-51
1.82
2670.00
1970.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
1385
1.00
250.40
177.00
280.80
Neutral
Sell
223
1.64
0.79
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
47.25
35.40
83.42
Neutral
Sell
37
SPIRAX-SARCO
2687.00
1903.48
2928.35
Neutral
Sell
1967
0.84
VITEC GROUP
575.00
575.00
740.00
Neutral
Sell
408
1.39
WEIR GROUP
2151.00
1491.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
1987
1.38
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
417.40
398.00
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
755
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
261.80
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Buy
355
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
355.30
301.40
396.50
Neutral
Buy
426
0.57
TESCO
331.40
307.90
387.75
Neutral
Sell
177
0.68
92.25
19.63
100.50
Neutral
Sell
57
0.84
THORNTONS
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1735.00
1243.00
2031.00
Neutral
Neutral
1770
0.62
CRANSWICK
1155.00
732.50
1178.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1918
0.43
DAIRY CREST
454.20
327.30
503.50
Neutral
Sell
94
0.94
DEVRO
291.20
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
502
0.32
59.75
54.50
125.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
358
1.25
824.50
634.50
875.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1336
0.71
2662.00
2127.00
2885.00
Neutral
Sell
1677
0.58
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
www.intellisys.uk.com
01 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 8 of 17
Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
26.00
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
32
0.69
442.00
244.40
465.60
Neutral
Sell
361
0.54
1351.00
1000.00
1541.00
Neutral
Sell
994
1.27
585.00
585.00
701.50
Neutral
Sell
286
0.95
41.09
14.97
42.90
Neutral
Buy
46
1.51
182.00
55.20
186.00
Neutral
Sell
62
1.13
28.13
19.50
34.00
Sell
Strong Buy
107
0.99
HALFORDS GROUP
317.30
189.00
405.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
502
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
880.50
651.00
920.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1548
0.53
DARTY
Target
Beta
58.00
38.00
72.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
97
1.25
KINGFISHER
343.00
254.10
355.10
Neutral
Buy
379
0.94
430.70
312.20
485.00
Neutral
Buy
507
0.65
56.50
43.00
71.00
Neutral
Buy
65
1.04
431.00
190.50
432.00
Neutral
Buy
475
0.47
NEXT
4558.00
3169.00
4749.00
Neutral
Neutral
4488
0.67
TED BAKER
1700.00
880.00
1789.00
Neutral
Sell
776
0.55
69.25
38.75
71.75
Neutral
Sell
53
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
135.00
127.50
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
120
0.46
CONSORT MEDICAL
832.50
660.50
839.00
Neutral
Sell
577
0.39
OPTOS
114.50
106.75
222.75
Neutral
Buy
158
1.18
735.00
637.50
794.50
Neutral
Sell
636
0.43
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
749.50
568.00
760.00
Neutral
Neutral
729
0.44
HEADLAM GROUP
357.50
265.00
378.75
Neutral
Sell
314
0.92
81.50
55.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
108
0.77
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
795.00
469.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
425
0.74
CSR
539.00
218.30
570.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1438
1.18
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
62.50
28.38
83.25
Neutral
Sell
24
0.90
287.40
287.40
624.00
Neutral
Buy
335
1.08
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
140.70
122.00
170.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
416
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
158.50
158.50
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-680
0.90
www.intellisys.uk.com
01 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 9 of 17
Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1327.00
1019.00
1374.00
Neutral
Sell
-480
0.53
AMLIN
393.30
352.20
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1565
0.46
BEAZLEY
230.00
137.70
241.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
974
0.60
CATLIN GROUP
499.20
422.00
552.50
Neutral
Sell
463
0.30
HISCOX
569.50
425.94
600.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1947
0.48
910.00
693.50
917.00
Neutral
Buy
1251
0.31
119.00
107.30
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
741
0.41
NOVAE GROUP
480.50
345.00
507.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3506
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2290.00
2083.00
2628.00
Neutral
Buy
3384
1.01
ENTERPRISE INNS
107.30
55.50
123.80
Neutral
Sell
101
1.61
TUI TRAVEL
356.90
165.20
373.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
693
1.01
910.00
700.50
925.00
Neutral
Sell
586
0.39
GREENE KING
775.00
550.50
798.00
Neutral
Sell
595
0.93
LADBROKES
199.90
153.80
243.10
Neutral
Buy
249
0.93
1808.00
1503.75
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1604
1.18
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
561.00
456.00
582.50
Neutral
Neutral
562
1.40
370.90
248.50
408.50
Neutral
Sell
261
1.12
112.80
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
58
1.25
13.00
5.61
13.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
68
1.27
153.60
115.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
550
1.00
0.76
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
500.00
296.00
531.00
Neutral
Sell
375
WETHERSPOON (JD)
664.50
416.60
666.00
Neutral
Neutral
663
0.69
WHITBREAD
3056.00
2028.00
3056.00
Sell
Sell
2103
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
440.90
257.85
452.80
Neutral
Sell
246
0.87
MARSTON'S
140.50
103.90
154.70
Neutral
Sell
1.21
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
339.60
268.30
388.40
Neutral
Neutral
326
1.25
CHESNARA
250.00
163.00
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
466
0.70
171.40
123.30
187.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
442
1.71
OLD MUTUAL
180.70
151.40
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
370
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1075.00
729.50
1203.00
Neutral
Neutral
1065
1.71
540.00
318.20
640.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6237
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
01 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
122.25
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1064
0.37
792.00
677.50
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1224
0.54
34.25
29.00
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-14
1.03
769.50
423.00
785.00
Sell
Strong Buy
3888
1.14
1.00
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
1023.00
714.00
1040.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5464
INFORMA
490.10
350.40
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-38
1.53
ITE GROUP
298.20
183.50
299.00
Sell
Strong Buy
306
1.45
ITV
140.10
70.40
142.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
1356
1.54
16.50
4.88
19.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
850
1.27
1171.00
1119.00
1294.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
408
0.63
87.75
36.50
88.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
2633
0.79
278.50
265.00
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
945
0.16
34.32
26.85
36.45
Neutral
Strong Buy
465
0.50
STV GROUP
136.50
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Sell
286
0.79
ST.IVES
148.00
67.50
166.50
Neutral
Sell
273
1.50
TRINITY MIRROR
111.00
26.00
122.25
Neutral
Sell
-394
1.59
UBM
656.00
580.50
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2426
1.31
0.84
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
164.75
82.00
165.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1239
WPP
1122.00
773.00
1190.00
Neutral
Sell
-631
1.35
HIBU
0.36
0.26
2.18
Neutral
Strong Buy
940
1.07
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1266.00
1256.00
2163.00
Neutral
Sell
1035
1.74
169.75
169.75
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
171
0.96
ANTOFAGASTA
795.00
795.00
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
650
1.41
1682.00
1673.00
2236.00
Neutral
Buy
2144
1.43
GLENCORE XSTRATA
272.15
272.15
397.85
Buy
Strong Buy
805
#NA
LONMIN
254.40
240.84
411.96
Neutral
Buy
340
2.03
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4085.00
3972.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2205
0.34
RIO TINTO
2683.00
2582.00
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2024
1.50
3.38
8.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
120
0.89
832.50
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2040
2.20
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
1020.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1118.50
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
824
BP
455.25
416.60
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
931
1.03
CAIRN ENERGY
253.10
251.80
309.40
Neutral
Sell
-15
1.32
0.82
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
Beta
0.80
7.51
7.15
12.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
100
732.00
704.50
941.00
Neutral
Sell
525
1.31
56.75
48.50
115.00
Neutral
Sell
-55
1.36
333.10
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Buy
376
1.43
2176.00
2098.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
7636
0.84
349.30
289.40
404.30
Neutral
Buy
454
0.53
1001.00
977.00
1531.00
Neutral
Sell
649
1.04
809.50
685.50
879.50
Neutral
Sell
672
1.35
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
01 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
111.00
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
225
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
346.00
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
290
0.69
4648.00
3365.00
4926.00
Neutral
Neutral
4675
0.36
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.46
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
-2
1.01
3115.00
2792.50
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
6093
0.47
BTG
369.50
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
189
0.58
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
690.00
473.00
780.00
Neutral
Neutral
698
0.25
1648.00
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Neutral
1593
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
1.56
1.55
2.80
Buy
Sell
0.64
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Strong Buy
0.95
2085.00
1727.00
2213.00
Neutral
Sell
1367
0.66
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
62.00
43.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
26
0.73
VERNALIS
21.75
21.63
27.38
Neutral
Sell
10
0.91
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
384.60
290.00
426.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
1064
1.18
BRITISH LAND
566.50
506.00
658.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1224
1.06
33.00
22.75
37.00
Sell
Sell
-14
0.85
995.00
640.50
1004.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3888
0.70
DERWENT LONDON
2300.00
1853.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5464
1.24
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
183.00
135.75
203.00
Neutral
Sell
-38
0.99
GRAINGER
144.60
85.50
157.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
306
1.58
531.50
393.40
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1356
1.10
HAMMERSON
487.30
442.90
554.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
850
1.19
HELICAL BAR
253.00
178.00
297.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
408
0.77
884.00
738.50
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2633
1.16
INTU PROPERTIES
312.60
300.60
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
945
1.09
MCKAY SECURITIES
148.00
129.00
155.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
465
0.73
368.75
325.00
437.50
Neutral
Sell
286
0.42
328.00
312.50
363.53
Neutral
Sell
273
0.35
78.00
37.50
79.50
Sell
Sell
-394
1.19
SAVILLS
571.00
350.00
610.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2426
0.77
SHAFTESBURY
595.00
514.50
668.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1239
1.05
SEGRO
279.20
217.30
302.80
Neutral
Sell
-631
1.73
ST MODWEN PROPS.
270.10
168.50
329.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
940
1.59
180.00
155.00
223.00
Neutral
Sell
23
1.01
UNITE GROUP
362.10
193.00
387.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2056
1.79
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
1.00
1.00
2.75
Buy
Sell
-1154
1.03
388.00
233.50
418.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1442
1.05
www.intellisys.uk.com
01 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
136.00
113.00
162.00
Neutral
Sell
125
0.73
2254.00
1630.00
2420.00
Neutral
Sell
1435
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
447.00
298.77
564.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1362
1.00
KOFAX
340.00
251.00
340.00
Neutral
Neutral
328
1.11
28.00
18.25
28.25
Neutral
Sell
25
0.85
710.00
529.08
711.00
Neutral
Buy
1029
0.76
PHOENIX IT GROUP
159.50
130.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
314
0.74
65.25
65.00
85.50
Neutral
Sell
-103
0.52
1928.00
1275.00
2047.00
Neutral
Buy
2163
0.76
340.20
276.06
368.18
Neutral
Buy
433
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
382.80
244.80
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1176
1.09
BREWIN DOLPHIN
234.10
137.50
244.70
Sell
Strong Buy
625
0.73
8175.00
8000.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
91018
0.84
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
404.00
256.00
410.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
1366
0.97
CHARLES TAYLOR
188.00
147.00
195.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1048
0.69
981.50
729.00
1107.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4611
0.86
95.30
79.55
110.40
Neutral
Sell
67
0.89
3.75
0.55
3.75
Sell
Sell
-123
0.69
HENDERSON GROUP
146.60
90.55
180.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
768
1.44
ICAP
363.50
280.80
386.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
782
1.07
434.90
252.30
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1984
1.70
HELPHIRE GROUP
413.70
358.40
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1586
1.56
1337.00
930.00
1434.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7508
1.15
83.20
63.25
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-4644
1.32
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1580.00
1208.00
1619.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5277
0.75
SCHRODERS
2183.00
1266.00
2560.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7875
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1718.00
1016.00
2000.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
10863
1.27
INVESTEC
LONDON STOCK EX.GROUP
MAN GROUP
www.intellisys.uk.com
01 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
229.50
157.75
247.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
785
0.92
AGGREKO
1642.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3834
1.05
AMEC
1005.00
965.50
1172.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3114
1.04
645.50
240.50
671.00
Neutral
Buy
917
1.63
1103.00
844.50
1205.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2445
0.48
547.00
348.00
580.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
1948
0.76
1280.00
1009.00
1342.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2617
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
523.00
214.00
530.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1341
0.39
CAPITA
966.00
656.00
1018.00
Neutral
Sell
194
0.51
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
53.25
26.83
56.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
444
0.78
COMPASS GROUP
840.00
647.50
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1850
0.74
BERENDSEN
744.50
496.30
812.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3114
1.05
DE LA RUE
966.50
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Buy
1332
#NA
0.22
DIGNITY
1364.00
806.00
1462.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2768
DIPLOMA
560.50
417.10
627.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1418
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
243.40
199.70
278.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
864
1.04
ESSENTRA PLC
701.50
454.40
750.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1289
1.13
G4S
230.40
230.40
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
820
0.58
HAYS
88.95
66.40
101.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
425
1.10
HOMESERVE
280.00
153.60
290.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
906
0.94
INTERSERVE
506.00
312.00
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3465
1.28
2923.00
2659.00
3453.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4492
0.78
46.00
26.50
47.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
105
1.17
0.72
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
28.50
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
201
MENZIES (JOHN)
705.50
573.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1720
1.43
371.00
341.40
451.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
785
1.42
MITIE GROUP
251.30
248.00
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
982
0.55
83.00
81.00
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
651
0.33
1055.00
670.50
1093.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2052
0.71
PREMIER FARNELL
202.00
165.50
236.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
673
1.33
REGUS
157.30
82.65
177.50
Neutral
Sell
54
1.46
89.35
70.35
100.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
246
1.25
REXAM
477.50
420.70
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1652
0.90
RICARDO
393.00
321.50
431.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1556
0.86
ROBERT WALTERS
218.00
176.25
234.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
939
1.24
OFFICE2OFFICE
PAYPOINT
RENTOKIL INITIAL
RPC GROUP
409.00
378.00
477.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1417
0.78
RPS GROUP
202.00
195.50
274.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
930
1.51
SERCO GROUP
616.50
535.00
647.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2211
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
79.00
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
254
1.46
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
59.50
22.25
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
285
1.26
175.00
82.00
177.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
521
0.63
58.63
40.50
59.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
306
0.93
367.00
266.50
367.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1965
0.86
88.50
42.00
89.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
574
0.79
www.intellisys.uk.com
01 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
309.20
210.20
322.30
Neutral
Buy
379
0.91
40.95
29.45
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
75
0.70
673.50
468.90
749.00
Neutral
Sell
179
0.53
81.50
68.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
106
1.24
1248.00
790.00
1325.00
Neutral
Sell
598
0.09
187.85
154.45
199.90
Neutral
Sell
38
0.54
Beta
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
280.10
178.00
288.40
Neutral
Sell
194
1.30
403.00
330.00
430.00
Neutral
Buy
512
0.98
CLARKSON
1701.00
1150.00
1716.00
Neutral
Sell
1238
0.80
EASYJET
1296.00
530.00
1300.00
Neutral
Sell
726
0.77
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
96.45
92.00
212.39
Neutral
Strong Buy
212
0.91
995.00
590.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
739
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1482.00
1204.00
1588.00
Neutral
Buy
2041
0.90
NATIONAL EXPRESS
224.50
164.50
230.50
Neutral
Buy
272
1.35
1.41
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
NORTHGATE
338.00
195.50
369.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
663
STAGECOACH GROUP
315.30
265.90
319.60
Neutral
Buy
397
0.89
63.75
31.00
78.50
Neutral
Sell
-53
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
360.20
310.80
394.90
Neutral
Buy
509
0.47
NATIONAL GRID
746.00
641.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
845
0.50
PENNON GROUP
644.50
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Neutral
708
0.59
SSE
1523.00
1294.00
1676.00
Neutral
Buy
2055
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
1664.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1402
0.35
684.00
647.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
666
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
01 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
DISCLAIMER
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys is the trading name of Intellisys
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intellisys is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of quoted company
shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to present an
objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial sector or
stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and proprietary
systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to be
accurate but Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of
the source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely
upon the Intellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice
specific to their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this
report. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or
completeness or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted to the accuracy or
sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. In
no event will Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited, Intellisys or any of its officers, employees or agents be
liable to any other party for any direct, indirect, special or other consequential damages arising from the use
of this report.
The Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports are not directed to any person in any
jurisdiction where (by reason of that persons nationality, residence or otherwise) the publication or
availability of the Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys information may be prohibited.
Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not access the Intellisys Intelligent Analysis
Limited and/or Intellisys reports. Neither this document, nor any copy in whatever form of media, may be
taken or transmitted into the United States, Canada, Australia, Ireland, South Africa or Japan or into any
jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so. Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a
violation of relevant local securities laws. Recipients of Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys
reports outside the UK are not covered by the rules and regulations made for the protection of investors in
the UK.
Any user distributing information taken from any Intellisys reports and/or the Intellisys website, in whatever
form, to any other person, agrees to attach a copy of this Disclaimer and the Terms and Conditions of Use
pages and obtain the agreement of such other person to comply with the terms set forth.
Intellisys' published reports are published for information purposes and only available to market
counterparties, high net-worth and sophisticated individual investors.
No Intellisys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire any shares or other
financial instruments in any company or any interest therein, nor shall it form the basis of any contract
entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
Intellisys believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any
person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for
the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
Intellisys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have positions
in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and may buy,
www.intellisys.uk.com
01 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 16 of 17
sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by internal
rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided
solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you must contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
www.intellisys.uk.com
01 July 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 17 of 17