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!
"
#
$
%
&
=
=
ROIC
1 Profit
IR) Profit(1 Flow Cash
Value
1
g g g
=
=
WACC WACC WACC
Value
Substitution #1
Cash Flow = Profit(1 IR)
Substitution #2
Growth = IR ROIC Cash Flow = Profit(1 IR) Growth = IR ROIC
16
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40 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF VALUE CREATION
practice. We rst introduce some terminology that we will use throughout the
book (the terms are dened in detail in Part Two):
r
Net operating prot less adjusted taxes (NOPLAT) represents the prots gen-
erated from the companys core operations after subtracting the income
taxes related to the core operations.
r
Invested capital represents the cumulative amount the business has in-
vested in its core operationsprimarily property, plant, and equipment
and working capital.
r
Net investment is the increase in invested capital from one year to the
next:
Net Investment = Invested Capital
t+1
Invested Capital
t
r
Free cash ow (FCF) is the cash ow generated by the core operations of
the business after deducting investments in new capital:
FCF = NOPLAT Net Investment
r
Return on invested capital (ROIC) is the return the company earns on each
dollar invested in the business:
ROIC =
NOPLAT
Invested Capital
(ROIC can be dened in two ways, as the return on all capital or as
the return on new or incremental capital. For now, we assume that both
returns are the same.)
r
Investment rate (IR) is the portion of NOPLAT invested back into the
business:
IR =
Net Investment
NOPLAT
r
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate of return that investors
expect to earn from investing in the company and therefore the appro-
priate discount rate for the free cash ow. WACC is dened in detail in
Chapter 11.
r
Growth (g) is the rate at which the companys NOPLAT and cash ow
grow each year.
Assume that the companys revenues and NOPLAT growat a constant rate
and the company invests the same proportion of its NOPLAT in its business
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THE MATH OF VALUE CREATION 41
each year. Investing the same proportion of NOPLAT each year also means
that the companys free cash ow will grow at a constant rate.
Since the companys cash ows are growing at a constant rate, we can begin
by valuing a company using the well-known cash ow perpetuity formula:
Value =
FCF
t=1
WACC g
This formula is well established in the nance and mathematics literature.
14
Next, dene free cash ow in terms of NOPLAT and the investment rate:
FCF = NOPLAT Net Investment
= NOPLAT (NOPLAT IR)
= NOPLAT(1 IR)
Earlier, we developed the relationship between the investment rate
(IR), the companys projected growth in NOPLAT (g), and the return
on investment (ROIC):
15
g = ROIC IR
Solving for IR, rather than g, leads to
IR =
g
ROIC
Now build this into the denition of free cash ow:
FCF = NOPLAT
1
g
ROIC
Substituting for free cash ow gives the key value driver formula:
Value =
NOPLAT
t=1
1
g
ROIC
WACC g
This formula underpins the DCF approachto valuation, anda variant of the
equation lies behind the economic-prot approach. These two mathematically
equivalent valuation techniques are described in detail in Chapter 6.
14
For the derivation, see T. E. Copeland and J. Fred Weston, Financial Theory and Corporate Policy, 3rd
ed. (Reading, MA: Addison Wesley, 1988), Appendix A.
15
Technically, we should use the return on new, or incremental, capital, but for simplicity here, we
assume that the ROIC and incremental ROIC are equal.
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SUMMARY 43
Divide both sides by invested capital:
16
Value
Invested Capital
= ROIC
1
g
ROIC
WACC g
Now that we have explained the logic behind the DCF approach to valua-
tion, you may wonder why analysts reports and investment banking pitches
so often use earnings multiples, rather than valuations based on DCF analysis.
The answer is partly that earnings multiples are a useful shorthand for com-
municating values to a wider public. A leading sell-side analyst recently told
us that he uses discounted cash ow to analyze and value companies but typ-
ically communicates his ndings in terms of implied multiples. For example,
an analyst might say Company X deserves a higher multiple than Company
Y because it is expected to grow faster, earn higher margins, or generate more
cash ow. Earnings multiples are also a useful sanity check for your valuation.
In practice, we always compare a companys implied multiple based on our
valuation with those of its peers to see if we can explain why its multiple is
higher or lower in terms of its ROIC or growth rates. See Chapter 14 for a
discussion of how to analyze earnings multiples.
SUMMARY
This chapter showed that value is driven by expected cash ows discounted at
a cost of capital. Cash ow, in turn, is driven by expected returns on invested
capital and revenue growth. The corollary is that any management action that
does not increase cashowdoes not create value. These are the principal lessons
of valuation and corporate nance. Although nance theory has little to say on
howto approachcashowrisk, inpractice managers andinvestors valuations
also need to take account of any risks attached to cash ows that shareholders
cannot manage for themselves. The concepts governing the theory of valuation
based on discounted cash ows are expressed mathematically in the key value
driver formula.
16
If total ROIC and incremental ROIC are not the same, then this equation becomes
Value
Invested Capital
= ROIC
1
g
RONIC
WACC g
where ROIC equals the return on the companys current capital and RONIC equals the return on
incremental capital.
Dopo aver osservato le precedenti formule, possiamo interpretarle cos:
1) il NOPLAT il Protto operativo (generato dalle attivit core) al netto delle impo-
ste disponibile per tutti gli investitori ed il risultato di:
NOPLAT = EBIT - (adjusted) Taxes
2) il Capitale investito (Invested Capital) rappresenta il capitale richiesto per nan-
ziare le attivit operative, senza distinguere come tale capitale nanziato.
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42 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF VALUE CREATION
Substituting the forecast assumptions for Value Inc. and Volume Inc. in
Exhibit 2.2 into the key value driver formula results in the same values we
came up with when we discounted their cash ows:
Company NOPLAT
t = 1
Growth (percent) ROIC (percent) WACC (percent) Value
Volume Inc. 100 5 10 10 1,000
Value Inc. 100 5 20 10 1,500
We call the key value driver formula the Tao of corporate nance because
it relates a companys value to the fundamental drivers of economic value:
growth, ROIC, and the cost of capital. You might go so far as to say that this
formula represents all there is to valuation. Everything else is mere detail.
However, in most cases, we do not use this formula in practice. The reason
is that inmost situations, the model is overlyrestrictive, as it assumes a constant
ROIC and growth rate going forward. For companies whose key value drivers
are expected to change, we need a model that is more exible in its forecasts.
Nevertheless, while we do not use this formula in practice, it is extremely
useful as a way to keep the mind focused on what drives value.
Until now, we have concentrated on how ROIC and growth drive the
discounted cash ow (DCF) valuation. We can also use the key value driver
formula to show that ROIC and growth determine multiples commonly used
to analyze company valuation, such as price-to-earnings and market-to-book
ratios. To see this, divide both sides of the key value driver formula by
NOPLAT:
Value
NOPLAT
t=1
=
1
g
ROIC
WACC g
As the formula shows, a companys earnings multiple is driven by both its
expected growth and its return on invested capital.
You can also turn the formula into a value-to-invested-capital formula.
Start with the identity:
NOPLAT = Invested Capital ROIC
Substitute this denition of NOPLAT into the key value driver formula:
Value =
Invested Capital ROIC
1
g
ROIC
WACC g
3) il ROIC il rendimento del capitale investito sulle attivit operative ed il risultato
di:
ROIC = NOPLAT / Invested Capital
Tornando al nostro modello di valutazione, i ussi di cassa derivano direttamente dal
NOPLAT meno la variazione del Capitale investito
Free Cash Flow (FCF) = NOPLAT - Var (Invested Capital)
I Free cash ow sono quindi indipendenti dalle attivit non operative e dalla struttura del
capitale.
Esempio di una riclassicazione
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110 FRAMEWORKS FOR VALUATION
EXHIBIT 6.6 Home Depot and Lowes: Historical Free Cash Flow
$ million
Home Depot Lowes
2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008
NOPLAT 6,245 4,456 3,033 3,266 2,901 2,489
Depreciation 1,645 1,693 1,785 1,162 1,366 1,539
Gross cash ow 7,890 6,149 4,818 4,428 4,267 4,028
Change in operating working capital (936) (739) 168 (67) (292)
Net capital expenditures (3,349) (3,577) (543) (3,779) (3,756) (2,900)
Decrease (increase) in capitalized operating leases (1,214) 1,262 (419) 291 (494) (385)
Investments in goodwill and acquired intangibles (3,525) 175
Decrease (increase) in net other operating assets 224 457 494 52 335 (11)
Increase (decrease) in accumulated other comprehensive income (99) 445 (832) 7 (14)
Gross investment (8,899) (2,152) (1,125) (3,268) (3,975) (3,602)
Free cash ow (1,009) 3,998 3,693 1,160 292 426
After-tax nonoperating income (6) 334 (72) 52 42 44
Decrease (increase) in nonoperating assets 2 8,384 283 134 (376) 311
Cash ow available to investors (1,013) 12,716 3,904 1,346 (42) 781
Reconciliation of cash ow to investors
After-tax interest expense 244 432 390 127 148 199
After-tax operating lease interest expense 274 333 303 114 105 124
Decrease (increase) in debt (7,576) (1,769) 1,996 (905) (2,244) 620
Decrease (increase) in capitalized operating leases (1,214) 1,262 (419) 291 (494) (385)
Flows to debt holders (8,272) 258 2,269 (373) (2,485) 557
Decrease (increase) in nonoperating deferred taxes (282) 302 270
Dividends 1,395 1,709 1,521 276 428 491
Repurchased and retired shares 5,889 10,336 (190) 1,400 2,007 (267)
Adjustments to retained earnings 257 111 34 43 8
Flows to equity holders 7,259 12,458 1,635 1,719 2,443 224
Cash ow available to investors (1,013) 12,716 3,904 1,346 (42) 781
to 24 percent of revenue. A reliable estimate of future sales expenses is critical
for an accurate assessment of enterprise value based on future cash ow.
Projecting revenue growth, ROIC, and free cash ow The next task in build-
inganenterprise DCFvaluationis toproject revenue growth, returnoninvested
capital, and free cash ow. Exhibit 6.8 graphs historical ROIC, projected ROIC,
and revenue growth for Home Depot. As the graphs demonstrate, the com-
panys revenue growth and ROIC fell dramatically with the collapse of the
U.S. housing market. Sell-side research analysts forecast a gradual recovery by
2011 but do not project growth and return on invested capital to return to their
historical levels, given the maturity of the market.
3. Analizzare la performance storica
Serve per documentare come e se limpresa ha creato valore, se cresciuta, anche rispet-
to ai suoi competitor.
4. Proiettare il tasso di crescita dei ricavi, il ROIC e il FCF
Si parte proiettando il NOPLAT e il capitale investito. Per il breve termine, proietta ogni
elemento/posta del bilancio, come costi amministrativi, magazzino, ecc.
Per il medio periodo, concentrati sui key value drivers come il margine operativo (MOL),
lefcienza del capitale, ecc.
Per il lungo periodo, usa la formula del continuing value (detto anche valore terminale).
5. Stima del Continuing Value
La formula richiede la stima del NOPLAT dellanno successivo allultimo anno in cui ab-
biamo proiettato i ussi di cassa del breve periodo.
6. Attualizzazione dei FCF al waac
Il waac rappresenta il rischio assunto da tutti gli investitori dellimpresa.
Facendo questo, stiamo assumendo implicitamente che la struttura del capitale rimarr
costante ad un dato Debt-to-Value ratio. Nel caso, per, i piani della societ prevedano
una variazione della struttura del capitale, tale tasso dovr variare di conseguenza. Ma
siccome tale procedimento risulta complicato, consigliabile utilizzare in tal caso lAdju-
sted Present Value Method (APV).
7. Identica e valuta gli asset non operativi
Molte societ detengono asset che presentano un valore ma i cui ussi di cassa non sono
inclusi nei bilanci. Il risultato che la cassa generata da queste attivit non parte del
FCF e deve essere valutata separatamente (Capitolo 12).
Un esempio, sono le controllate non consolidate.
8. Identica e valuta i debiti
Per determinare il valore del capitale, sottrai tutti i debiti o le poste non di capitale.
Tale valore rappresenta lattivo residuo, dopo che la societ ha esaurito e soddisfatto tutte
le pretese dei creditori (in caso di fallimento). Le passivit principalmente comprendono:
a) debt: il valore dei debiti pi possibile a quello di mercato (ad esempio per i prestiti obbli-
gazionari); ma se non disponibile, il valore contabile una sua buona proxy, salvo il ri-
schio di default non differisca drammaticamente da quello originario.
b) i leasing operativi;
c) poste legate a pensioni e TFR;
d) azioni privilegiate;
e) opzioni per i dipendenti;
f) interessi di minoranza.
12
Continuing Value: The Key Value Driver Formula
Although many continuing-value models exist, we prefer the key value driver
model. The key value driver formula is superior to alternative methodologies
because it is based on cash flow and links cash flow to growth and ROIC.
For continuing value, RONIC is
the return on new investment;
return on existing investment is
t+1
g
NOPLAT 1
ROIC
Continuing Value
WACC g
! "
# $
% &
=
# $
% &
=
The continuing value is
measured as of 2018. This
12.2%
Continuing Value
8.5% 4.0%
% &
=
WACC
RONIC
1 NOPLAT
Value Continuing
1
Expected long-term growth
rate in revenues and
cash flows
Weighted average cost of
capital, based on long-run target
capital structure
The continuing value is measured at time t (not today), and thus will need to be
discounted back t years to compute its present value
cash flows capital structure
5
discounted back t years to compute its present value.
Il continuing value altamente sensibile ai cambiamenti dei parametri della formula, so-
prattutto quando il ROIC maggiore del waac.
Se il RONIC eguaglia al waac, ci implicache i nuovi progetti non creano valore, mentre i
progetti esistenti continuano a produrne ad un livello base.
2. Formula raccomandata per il Modello Economic Prot
La formula deve essere coerente con il metodo EP. Il valore totale dellimpresa data co-
me segue:
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RECOMMENDED FORMULA FOR ECONOMIC-PROFIT VALUATION 217
0
1,000
10 12 14 16
Return on new invested capital (percent)
C
o
n
t
i
n
u
i
n
g
v
a
l
u
e
(
$
m
i
l
l
i
o
n
)
18
Growth = 8%
Growth = 6%
Growth = 4%
20
2,000
3,000
EXHIBIT 10.2Impact of Continuing-Value Assumptions
WACC = 10%; NOPLAT = $100 million
6 percent to 8 percent increases the continuing value by 50 percent, from about
$1.4 billion to about $2.1 billion.
RECOMMENDED FORMULA FOR ECONOMIC-PROFIT VALUATION
With the economic-prot approach, the continuing value does not equal the
value of the company following the explicit forecast period, as it does for dis-
counted free cash ow. Instead, it is the incremental value over the companys
invested capital at the end of the explicit forecast period. The total value of the
company is as follows:
Value =
Invested Capital
at Beginning
of Forecast
+
Present Value of Forecast
Economic Prot during
Explicit Forecast Period
+
Present Value of Forecast
Economic Prot after
Explicit Forecast Period
The economic-prot continuing value is the last term in the preceding
equation. Although this continuing value differs from the DCF continuing
value, todays value of the company will be the same, given the same projected
nancial performance.
The economic-prot formula for continuing value is:
CV
t
= Economic Prots in Year t+1 +Economic Prots beyond Year t+1
=
IC
t
(ROIC
t
WACC)
WACC
+
PV(Economic Prot
t+2
)
WACC g
2. Economic-Profit Model
When using the economic-profit approach, do not use the traditional key value driver
formula, as the formula would double-count cash flows.
nstead, a formula must be defined that is consistent with the economic-profit-based
valuation method. The total value of a company is as follows:
Value of
operations =
Invested
capital at
beginning of +
Present value of
forecasted economic
profit during explicit +
Present value of
forecasted economic
profit after explicit operations = beginning of
forecast
+ profit during explicit
forecast period
+ profit after explicit
forecast period
Explicit Forecast Period
Continuing value
l l represents only long-
run value creation,
not total value.
8
2. Economic-Profit Model
The continuing-value formula for economic-profit models has two components:
( ) ( )
g
t t t
t
A
+
=
+ +
WACC
) Profit Economic PV(
WACC
WACC ROIC IC
CV
2 1
Value created on current capital,
based on ROC at end of forecast
period (using a no-growth
perpetuity).
Value created (or destroyed) on new
capital using RONC. New capital
grows at g, so a growing perpetuity
is used.
The present value of economic profit at t+2 equals EVA/WACC (i.e., no growth):
( )
|
|
| g
New nvestment Economic Spread
( )
WACC
WACC RONIC
RONIC
NOPLAT
) Profit Economic PV(
1
2
|
.
|
\
|
= A
+
+
g
t
t
Value Using Perpetuity
9
Value Using Perpetuity
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218 ESTIMATING CONTINUING VALUE
such that
PV(Economic Prot
t+2
) =
NOPLAT
t+1
g
RONIC
(RONIC WACC)
WACC
where IC
t
=invested capital at the end of the explicit forecast period
ROIC
t
=ROIC on existing capital after the explicit forecast period
WACC=weighted average cost of capital
g =expected growth rate in NOPLAT in perpetuity
RONIC=expected rate of return on new invested capital after the ex-
plicit forecast period
According to the formula, total economic prot following the explicit fore-
cast equals the present value of economic prot in the rst year after the explicit
forecast in perpetuity, plus any incremental economic prot after that year. In-
cremental economic prot is created by additional growth at returns exceeding
the cost of capital. If expected RONIC equals WACC, the third term (economic
prots beyond year 1) equals zero, and the continuing economic-prot value
is the value of the rst years economic prot in perpetuity.
DCF-based and economic-prot-based continuing values are directly re-
lated but not identical. The continuing value using a DCF will equal the sum
of the economic-prot continuing value plus the amount of invested capital in
place at the end of the explicit forecast period.
SUBTLETIES OF CONTINUING VALUE
Three misunderstandings about continuing value are common. First is the mis-
perception that the length of the explicit forecast affects the companys value.
Second, people confuse return on new invested capital (RONIC) with return
on invested capital (ROIC). Setting RONIC equal to WACC in the continuing-
value formula does not imply the company will not create value beyond the
explicit forecast period. Since return on capital from existing capital will re-
main at original levels, ROIC will only gradually approach the cost of capital.
Finally, some analysts incorrectly infer that a large continuing value relative
to the companys total value means value creation occurs primarily after the
explicit forecast period.
Does Length of Forecast Affect a Companys Value?
While the length of the explicit forecast period you choose is important, it
does not affect the value of the company; it only affects the distribution of the
companys value between the explicit forecast period and the years that follow.
Secondo queste formule, leconomic prot uguaglia il valore attuale delleconomic prot nel
primo anno dopo il periodo di previsioni pi un economic prot incrementale dopo lultimo
anno.
Leconomic prot incrementale creato dal tasso di crescita ad un ROIC che eccede il co-
sto del capitale.
Esempio:
Comparison of KVD and Economic-Profit CV
Consider a company with $500 in capital earning an ROC of 20 percent. ts expected
base-year NOPLAT is therefore $100. f the company has an RONC of 12 percent, a cost
of capital of 11 percent, and a growth rate of 6 percent, what is the company's (continuing)
value?
Using the KVD formula: Using the KVD formula:
000 , 1 $
% 6 % 1 1
12%
6%
1 100 $
Value Continuing =
|
.
|
\
|
=
t
Using the economic-profit-based KVD, we arrive at a partial value:
( ) 11% 12%
12%
6%
100 |
.
|
\
|
( )
54 . 4 $
11%
12%
) Profit c PV(Economi
2
=
. \
=
+ t
( ) 54 . 4 $ 11% 20% 00 $5
CV +
Step 1
( )
6% % 1 1 11%
CV
+ =
t
Step 2
0 . 500 9 . 90 1 . 409 CV = + =
t
Note how economic-profit CV
does not equal total value. To
arrive at total value, add
beginning value ($500)
10
t beginning value ($500).
3. Altre note sul Continuing value
La lunghezza del periodo di previsione non rileva
La lunghezza del periodo di previsione esplicito non rileva e non intacca il valore della so-
ciet, ma solamente la distribuzione del valore della societ fra il periodo di previsione
esplicito e gli anni successivi.
Nellesempio di cui sopra, il valore
dellimpresa rimane lo stesso. Pe-
riodi di previsione pi brevi condu-
cono a rapporti fra il valore di pre-
visione e il continuing value pi
elevati.
A lato, un esempio di valutazione
con il continuing value.
33
Length of Explicit Forecast Does Not Matter
While the length of the explicit forecast period you choose is important, it does not affect the
value of the company; it affects only the distribution of the company's value between the explicit
forecast period and the years that follow.
n the example below, the company value is $893, regardless of how long the forecast period is.
Short forecast periods lead to higher proportions of continuing value. p g p p g
Comparison of Total-Value Estimates Using Different Forecast Horizons
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12
Length of Explicit Forecast Does Not Matter
To determine the present value of the company, sum the present value of the explicit
forecast period cash flows plus the present value of continuing value. The total value p p p g
equals $892.6 million.
Valuation Using Five-Year Explicit Forecast Period
13
34