Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| June 27, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Thursday| June 27, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Withdrawal of Special Margin on Soyabean (SYBEANIDR) and Yellow Soybean Meal (SBMEALIDR) July 2013 contract
As per a circular by NCDEX dated June 26, 2013 the special Margin of 10% (in cash) on the Long Side on Soyabean (SYMBOL: SYBEANIDR) and Yellow Soybean Meal (SBMEALIDR) July 2013 expiry contracts will be withdrawn with effect from beginning of day Thursday, June 27, 2013. (Source: NCDEX)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on June 26, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18552 5589 60.72 95.5 1229.6

-0.41 -0.36 1.77 0.19 -3.55

-3.60 -4.01 3.41 -2.79 -10.48

-5.85 -6.60 8.78 1.43 -11.34

9.73 9.14 6.59 20.34 -21.88

.Source: Reuters

Cabinet to consider hike in crop support prices today

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) is likely to approve an increase in minimum support prices (MSP) of oilseeds, such as groundnut and soyabean, and pulses such as moong among others on Thursday. The declaration for minimum support price this year has been delayed by about two weeks compared with last year, even as the monsoon progressed swiftly and covered the country about a fortnight ahead of schedule. The increase in support price for oilseeds and pulses is likely to give a fillip to output, reducing import dependence. (Source:
Business Line)

Soybean production could go up 7-10%: SOPA

Soybean production is likely to go up by 7-10 per cent as most growing areas have witnessed early or timely sowing, said industry experts. "Sowing is near completion and it is likely to get over across the country by July 5," said Rajesh Agrawal, coordinator and spokesman, Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA). "If all goes well, like rains at regular intervals, soybean production is likely to go up by 7-10 per cent this year." At present, around 80-85 per cent soybean sowing is done in the country and remaining may get over by first week of July, claimed Agrawal. Sowing in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra will finish by Juneend but in Rajasthan it may extend to July, said traders. (Source: Business
Standard)

Monsoon weakens except over Hills and along West Coast

The South-West monsoon may be holding strong along the Himalayan hills and over the West Coast, but it has weakened to some extent elsewhere in the country. Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services has noted the weakening trend, which it says will continue into early July. US National Centres for Environmental Prediction sees large parts of North-West and central India, apart from most of the peninsula, starting to dry up from the weekend. These areas might post deficits ranging between 25 and 50 per cent in rainfall during the week beginning Wednesday. (Source: Business Line)

Argentina Blocks Wheat Exports to Fight Rising Flour, Bread Prices

Argentina's government has halted wheat exports as it grapples with rising prices for flour and bread, a staple of the Argentine diet. The government has informed exporters that it won't authorize further shipments from the 2012-13 crop. The government also ordered grain exporters to sell about 370,000 metric tons of wheat to local millers that was about to be shipped abroad. The measures will likely force Brazil-the top buyer of Argentine wheat--to turn to other markets such as the U.S. or Canada to meet its demand for the grain. Argentina was the world's seventh-largest wheat exporter during the 2012-13 crop year, according to the USDA. (Source: Factiva)

Basmati rice might top list of agricultural exports

After two years, Basmati rice could again emerge as India's top agricultural export commodity. During the last two financial years, guar gum had topped the list, in terms of value, primarily due to the shale gas boom in the US. The commerce ministry expects Russia would lift a ban on Indian Basmati imports soon. The move is expected to further increase exports, said a source at the Agriculture & Processed Food Products Development Authority (Apeda). Currently, a Russian delegation is inspecting rice mills in India. The delegation would provide a report on lifting the ban, said the Apeda source. Russia, earlier a net importer of Indian Basmati, had imposed a ban on these imports in February, owing to the detection of copra beetle infestation. (Source:
Business Standard)

Brazil's early June sugar output down due to rain

Sugar production in Brazil's main cane-growing region fell in the first half of June because wet weather held up crushing of the record-large cane crop, cane industry association Unica said on Wednesday. Brazil's centersouth region produced 1.78 million tonnes of sugar in the period. That was down from 1.84 million tonnes produced in the second half of May, a period which also saw rains in its final days. In the first fortnight of June 2012, 1.37 million tonnes of sugar was produced in the center-south region of Brazil, the world's largest exporter of sugar. From the start of the cane season on April 1 through mid June, mills have produced 7.39 million tonnes of sugar, up a massive 51 percent from the 4.90 million tonnes a year ago, Unica said, a result of the improved size and quality of the cane crop. (Source: Reuters)

Vegetable prices up as rains hit supply

While early monsoon rainfalls raised the prospects for kharif crops, vegetable prices have already spiked due to disruptions in supplies to consumption centres from major producing zones. Retail vendors have taken benefit of the situation by selling vegetables at double the purchase price, aggravating consumers' woes. Prices of all frontline and leafy vegetables have risen sharply in the last two weeks. "Lower rainfall during the last monsoon season reduced the water table in major ladies finger producing centres in Maharashtra. Also, there was no pre-season rainfall this year. As a result, farmers could not sow seeds in April-May for harvesting in June-July. Consequently, supply has been very low in Vashi APMC," said Suresh Salunkhe, deputy secretary and head (vegetable section), Vashi APMC. (Source: Business Standard)

Cotton market braces for big delivery, fears tighter supply

U.S. cotton traders expect a physical delivery of the fiber against the expiring July contract, large enough to deplete swelling exchange stocks 20 percent or more, and tighten supplies heading into the new 2013/14 crop year. ICE Futures U.S. certified stocks are at three-year highs of almost 600,000 bales. But almost a fifth of that total was already slated to be delivered against the nearby contract when it expires on July 9, according to exchange data. Dealers said they expect orders to push that total higher in coming days. (Source: Reuters)

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Thursday| June 27, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures declined further on Wednesday touching a new contract low of ` 3134 and settled 2.79% lower due to comfortable supplies to meet stockist demand. Spot prices also declined and settled 0.6% lower. However, Chana prices are sustaining above their MSP levels since past two weeks. Despite of good demand at such lower levels, upside in the prices is capped on account of higher production this season along with good progress of monsoon. Sowing of kharif pulses have commenced and 3.74 lakh hectares have st been covered as on 21 June compared to normal 1.22 lakh ha. Spillover effect of kharif pulses is capping sharp upside in chana prices. Sowing of kharif pulses was adversely impacted last year and was down by 16 percent due to deficient rains.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX July'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on June 26, 2013 % change Last 3150 3140 Prev day -1.82 -2.79 WoW -1.49 -2.33 MoM -2.95 -0.76
Source: Reuters

YoY -28.75 -27.42

Spread Matrix
Closing 3150 3140 3209 3274 19-Jul-13 -10 0 -

as on June 26, 2013 20-Aug-13 59 69 0 20-Sep-13 124 134 65 0 as on June 25, 2013 Stocks as on 24th June 78418 45328 10784 134530 Qty in Process 1020 1862 321 3203

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. According to third advance Estimates released on 3 May 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 18 mn tn, up 5.76% compared to previous year. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 4.03% lower at 5.95 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 9.25% higher at 12.05 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. However, chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record output of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Erratic weather in M.P. lowered the yield.
rd

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 25th June 78907 47180 10794 136881 Qty in Process 863 1014 400 2277

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX July contract

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of April 2013 declined to 0.04 lakh metric tonnes compared to 0.11 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana may trade on a mixed note during the intraday. Good rains and thereby, prospects of better kharif sowing may pressurize prices. However, good demand at lower levels coupled with declining arrivals may provide support to the prices. Seasonal pattern in chana indicates that prices generally bottom out in May when arrivals reach their peak, while they start recovering gradually June onwards with declining supply pressure. Thus, going forward downside seems to be limited as prices are near their MSP levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana July Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for June 27, 2013 Resistance 3190-3230

3065-3100

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Thursday| June 27, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
A sharp volatility in Soybean prices was seen on Wednesday as markets were influenced not only by the fundamental factors but the movement was also supported by the spillover effect from the international commodities and currencies segment. Spillover effect from international commodities exerted downside pressure on the prices in the first half of the trading session, however, a sharp fall in rupee, which hit historical low levels, led prices to recover in the second half of the session. The spot as well as the futures settled 3.2% and 1.48% lower respectively on Wednesday. The regulator has withdrawn 10% special cash margin on the long th side in July contract wef. 27 June, 2013 Two major soybean growing states MP and Maharashtra have received above normal rains so far in June. Thus, good monsoon and higher prices earned last year is expected to aid sowing this season. Oilseeds sowing is completed under 8.13 lk ha against normal 3.37 lk ha. Soybean was planted on 1.32 lk ha, against 0.16 lk ha last year. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 mn tonnes. IMDs forecasts of normal monsoon have raised hopes of better output next season too. International Markets CBOT soybean gained by 0.59% on Wednesday ahead of the planting intentions data to be released on Friday. Also, estimates of lower soybean stocks as on June 1 supported prices. However, favorable weather capped gains in the far month contracts. Price were on an upward trend since past few weeks as supplies are tight till the new crop arrives in the US and delayed planting will further delay harvesting adding to the already squeezed stocks. According to the latest USDA report, U.S. soybeans were 92 percent planted the lowest for this time of year since 2009, but not far from the five-year U.S. average of 95 percent.

Market Highlights

as on June 26, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -3.20 -8.14 -1.48 0.59 -0.80 -0.92 -8.10 0.74 -1.46 -1.37

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT July'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX July '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3688 3673 1534 3457 3449

MoM -5.92 -4.12 1.66 -1.46 0.32

YoY -4.36 -6.61 4.66 -13 -13.25

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3688 Spot 19-Jul-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 3672.5 3179.5 3182.5 0 -493 0 19-Jul-13 -15.5 18-Oct-13 -508.5

as on June 26, 2013 20-Nov-13 -505.5 -490 3 0 as on June26, 2013 20-Aug-13 34.1 42 0 20-Sep-13 78.1 86 44 0 as on June 25, 2013 Qty in Process 60 0 0 60 as on June 25, 2013 Qty in Process 0 20 60 0 1641 150 10 1881 NCDEX July contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3456.9 3449 3491 3535 19-Jul-13 -7.9 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 25th June 20045 2491 401 22937 Stocks as on 25th June 3010 4101 20288 634 58972 4932 1660 93600 Qty in Process 120 0 0 120 Qty in Process 30 91 100 0 1600 200 10 2013 Stocks as on 24th June 20045 2491 401 22937 Stocks as on 24th June 3010 4104 20288 634 58529 4932 1660 93157

Outlook
Soybean prices may trade with a negative bias during the intraday on account of higher sowing and above normal monsoon. However, tight supplies in the domestic as well as US markets in the near term coupled with withdrawal of margins may keep sentiments positive.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed July futures declined further and hit fresh contract lows of ` 3408 on Wednesday amidst higher supplies. Spillover effect from other oilseeds is also seen on the mustard prices. Although Prices gained last week due to lower level demand but, comfortable supplies in Rajasthan, the largest producing belt again pressurized prices. Sowing of this Rabi crop was up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha in 2012-13. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Although overall trend in mustard remain weak on account of higher supplies in the domestic markets, prices may remain sideways during the intraday owing to short coverings.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX July Futures RM Seed NCDEX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 27, 2013 Support 3580-3625 3375-3412 Resistance 3715-3750 3484-3515

Source: Telequote

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Thursday| June 27, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Refine soy oil July futures extended the losses of the previous session in the first half of the trading session on Wednesday, prices recovered in the later part after rupee hit fresh lows. Ref soy oil July futures as well as spot settled 0.6% and 0.86%lower on Wednesday. Prices that gained significantly in the past one month on the back of weak rupee and Ramazan demand, declined in the last one week amidst good sowing prospects of oilseeds in the domestic markets. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 40.2% to 917,964 tn in May, after dropping for 3 months, mainly due to surge in palm oil imports. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean. Edible oil stocks as on June 1, 2013 at various ports were estimated at 6.75 lakh tonnes and about 13 lakh tonnes are in the pipeline.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 694.75 684.90 46.63 2370 505.30 Prev day -0.86 -0.59 -1.08 -1.25 0.50

as on June 26, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTJuly'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia June '13 Fut CPO-MCX- June '13 Futures

WoW -2.92 -4.30 -5.51 -3.89 0.00

MoM -4.41 -3.73 -5.87 -0.08 5.40

YoY -7.46 -10.17 -8.42 -20.55 -10.83

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 694.75 684.9 678.45 670.5 19-Jul-13 -9.85 0 20-Aug-13 -16.3 -6.45 0 -

as on June 26, 2013 20-Sep-13 -24.25 -14.4 -7.95 0 as on June 26, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil may trade higher on account of good demand ahead of Ramadan. A weak Rupee may also support an upside in the prices.

CPO Spread Matrix

29-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Aug-13 Closing 505.3 507.5 507.9 29-Jun-13 0 31-Jul-13 2.2 0 -

Crude Palm Oil

A sharp fall in rupee led CPO prices to settle higher yesterday. At MCX CPO settled 0.5% higher. KLCE palm oil futures declined by 1.25% yesterday on account of credit concerns in China, the biggest importer of palm oil. However, strong export data and a weak Ringgit capped the losses. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for July, up from 9% in June. Exports of Malaysian palm oil between June 1-25 were reported at 1,167,266 tn, up by 9.6% compared to 1,064,925 tn between May 125 as buyers stocked up for Ramadan that falls in July. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports hit a record high in May by jumping 47.5 percent from April. The world's top buyer of vegetable oils imported 373,837 tonnes of refined palm oil in May. The jump in refined palm oil purchases will raise the clamour for increasing import duties to protect local oilseed growers and refiners against cheaper supplies from major exporters Indonesia and Malaysia. But the Indian government is yet to pay any heed as inflation has only just reached comfortable levels. Import of RBD palmolein touched 3,73,837 tn in May 2013, highest in any single month since edible oil imports were allowed under OGL in 1994, the Solvent Extractors Association of India said.

31-Aug-13 2.6 0.4 0 NCDEX July contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX July contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
CPO prices may remain firm in the intraday on account of a weak Rupee along with firmness in the international markets.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil July NCDEX Futures CPO MCX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 27, 2013 Support 675-681 500-505 Resistance 689-692 512-515

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Thursday| June 27, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
After futures corrected yesterday and settled 1.83% lower on account of profit taking coupled higher arrivals in the domestic markets. Prices have gained over the last few sessions on account of good overseas as well as local demand. Currently, about 65-70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. Exports have been reported mainly to Singapore, Europe and Dubai. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. Jeera of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,525 tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13785 13403 5772 6068 Prev day 0.13 -1.83 1.17 1.27

as on June 26, 2013 % Change WoW 2.49 1.71 3.93 8.59 MoM 1.72 3.22 -3.42 3.83 YoY -1.46 -2.42 56.46 43.72

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Fut Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX July '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 13785.3 13402.5 13715 14112.5 19-Jul-13 -382.8 0 20-Aug-13 -70.3 312.5 0 -

as on June 26, 2013 20-Sep-13 327.2 710 397.5 0 as on June 26, 2013 19-Jul-13 296 0 20-Aug-13 394 98 0 20-Sep-13 474 178 80 0 as on June 25, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 24th June Process 1007 7426 8433 4991 NCDEX July contract 72 42 114 230

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 14,000 bags on Wednesday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 5772 6068 6166 6246

Outlook
Jeera prices are expected to recover from lower levels today as good overseas as well as domestic demand may support prices. However, good supplies may cap sharp gains. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep the prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 25th June 1025 7417 8442 5051 Qty in Process 54 48 102 171

Turmeric
Turmeric futures traded on a positive note yesterday and settled 1.27% higher on account of good quality arrivals in the spot markets. Also, fresh export enquiries as well as lower arrivals have supported the prices. However, good progress of the monsoon as well as good sowing has capped sharp gains. NCDEX issued a circular whereby the earlier circular regarding modification in the tick size and lot size has been kept in abeyance. The regulator also withdrew special margins on the long side.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi were reported at 4,000 bags and 3,000 bags respectively on Wednesday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP th is reported at 0.01 lakh ha as on 19 June, 2013. Sowing Production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags, lower by 40-50%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric prices are expected to continue to trade higher today supported by lower arrivals as well as fresh export enquiries. However, huge carryover stocks may cap the upside. Good monsoon progress, thereby prospects of good sowing may also pressurize prices.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX July contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX July Futures Turmeric NCDEX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for June 27, 2013

Support 13120-13260 5950-6020 Resistance 13550-13700 6146-6200
Source: Telequote

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Thursday| June 27, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar prices recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings after prices declined sharply over the last few days. Prices have declined as the government said it not will consider increase in the import duty until September 2013. However, output concerns on the back of drought conditions last year has supported prices at lower levels. The recent rains in the drought affected sugarcane areas in the Southern and Western parts of the country have eased damage concerns thereby exerting downside pressure on the prices. However, good demand ahead of Ramadan as well as concerns about cane output in the coming season due to drought conditions in Maharashtra last year limited the downside. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 44.55 lakh ha as compared to 46.78 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX July '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE July '13 Fut `/qtl 3024 `/qtl 517.8 $/tonne 378.00 $/tonne -0.35 0.06 0.67 Last 3054

as on June 26, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.24 -0.13 -1.37 4.44 0.24 MoM -0.10 0.47 8.64 1.73 YoY 2.37 4.28 -13.58 -19.80

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3054.3 3024 3076 3127 19-Jul-13 -30.3 0 20-Aug-13 21.7 52 0 -

as on June 26, 2013 20-Sep-13 72.7 103 51 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. According to ISMA, Indias Sugar production between October -April stood at 24.52 mn tn, lower by 3 percent during the same period last year. Maharashtras production dipped 10% to 8 mn tn while production in Uttar Pradesh increased by 7% to 7.43 mn tn. India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at higher against the domestic consumption of around 22.5 mln tn for 2012-13.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 25th June 2198 7637 1022 1228 12085 Qty in Process 250 150 0 0 400 Stocks as on 24th June 2198 7337 1022 1228 11785

as on June 25, 2013 Qty in Process 300 450 0 0 750

Global Sugar Updates

ICE Sugar settled marginally higher by 0.06% while Liffe Sugar futures declined by 0.35% on Wednesday on account of profit taking at higher levels. Prices have gained as heavy rains in Brazil have halted harvesting. Reports of continued showers this week may delay the crushing further. As per the local weather forecaster Somar, heavier than expected rains have halted cane harvesting for seven days for some mills across centersouth Brazil in June, the world's biggest sugar producing region. Prices have declined sharply over the past few months and touched three years low last week due to three back to back years of sugar surplus coupled with supplies from Brazil. Brazils cane industry association, Unica, projects main center-south sugar cane crop will produce a record 35.5 mn tn of sugar in the 2013/14 season, higher by 4.1% compared to 34.1 mn tn last year. However, Unica reported a fall in the output in the second half of May due to late rains in Brazil and a shift towards ethanol production.

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX July contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar futures may trade on a mixed note today. Prices may decline as the government will not increase the import duty. Good rains in the cane growing regions may also pressurize prices at higher levels. However, improvement in the international prices coupled with Ramadan demand as well as output concerns this season may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar July NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for June 27, 2013 Support 2983-3005 Resistance 3040-3055

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Thursday| June 27, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
MCX Cotton settled 1.08% higher on Wednesday supported by a weak Rupee as well as tight supplies. However, higher cotton planting this season along with good monsoon is capping sharp upside in the prices. NCDEX Kapas settled 0.23% lower. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the seaosn (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) is reported at 318.62, down 2.2 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1073.5 19580 83.68 92.25

as on June 26, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.23 0.33 1.08 2.46 -1.66 -2.01 1.77 -2.17 MoM YoY 0.33 #N/A 7.70 21.92 2.78 19.03 2.39 14.88
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton June Fut ICE Cotton Cot look A Index

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting has been reported at 28.13 lakh ha as against 24.59 lakh ha during the same period last year. Plating is almost complete in North India and sowing in Punjab and Haryana declined marginally. Sowing in the rain fed areas of Southern India has also commenced. Sowing has picked up in Andhra Pradesh as well as Karnataka. Planting in Gujarat is yet to gain momentum.

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 28-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 19580 19870 20280 28-Jun-13 0 -

as on June 26, 2013 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 290 0 700 410 0

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
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Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on 24th June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400

as on June 25, 2013

Stocks as on 23rd June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400 NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates

Cotton futures resumed the downtrend and declined by 1.66% on Wednesday on limited buying by the mills. Concerns over the economic health of China, the world's top textile market have pressurized prices. ICE Futures U.S. certified stocks are at three-year highs of 600,000 bales. But almost a fifth of that total was already slated to be delivered against the nearby contract when it expires on July 9. (Reuters). This is Large enough to deplete swelling exchange stocks 20 percent or more, and tighten supplies heading into the new 2013/14 crop year. Rains in West Texas raised cotton prospects in top US cotton producing state last week which exerted downside pressure on the prices. A U.S. crop report released this week showed continued delays for new cotton crop, adding to a sense of tightness in upcoming U.S. supplies.

Technical Chart - Kapas

Outlook
Cotton is expected to trade with a positive bias today on account fresh export enquiries for cotton and yarn. Weakness in the Indian may also provide support to the domestic prices. Higher cotton planting figures so far in the domestic markets and smooth progress of monsoon may however, cap sharp upside in the prices in the coming weeks.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX July contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX July Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for June 27, 2013 Support 1060-1067 19630-19750 Resistance 1080-1086 1990-20110
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Thursday| June 27, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar seed as well as Guar gum July Futures settled 1.79% and 2.37% lower respectively on Wednesday due to improvement in the sowing of the guar crop. However, slack supplies as farmers held back stocks on hopes of better prices supported prices at lower levels. Since the resumption of Guarseed and Guar gum contracts on the futures platform, prices are on a downward trend on account of host of factors like bumper summer harvest in Gujarat, smooth monsoon progress and expected higher sowing.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX July 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX July13 Fut `/qtl 7150 `/qtl 20509 `/qtl 20560 `/qtl -2.37 -4.40 -1.79 Last Prev day 7257 -3.24

as on June 26, 2013 % change WoW -2.76 -6.17 -4.84 -7.93 MoM -16.88 -14.58 -21.24 -19.84 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing

IMD in its second long range forecast predicted monsoon in Northwest India to be 94 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) The southwest monsoon has covered the entire country, four weeks ahead of schedule and the earliest on record. The major guar growing states in India are Rajasthan, Haryana, and Gujarat. Sowing in the irrigated areas takes place during early June while in the rain fed areas it starts with the onset of monsoon in July. Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 7256.65 7150 5950 5800 19-Jul-13 -106.65 0 -

as on June 26, 2013 20-Aug-13 -1306.65 -1200 0 20-Sep-13 -1456.65 -1350 -150 0 as on June 26, 2013 20-Aug-13 -2868.8 -2920 0 20-Sep-13 -3358.8 -3410 -490 0 as on June 25, 2013 Stocks as on 24thJune 59 81 Qty in Process 0 0

NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 20508.8 20560 17640 17150 19-Jul-13 51.2 0 -

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Stocks as on 25th June 59 81 Qty in Process 0 0

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX July contract

Outlook
Supply side fundamentals remain strong to cater the domestic and overseas demand which may exert downside pressure on the prices at higher levels. Good sowing may also add to the downside pressure. However, a prediction of below normal rains in Northwest India may support prices in the near term. However, it is too early to predict the same as monsoon progress so far is smooth.

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed July (NCDEX) Guar Seed July (MCX) Guar Gum July (NCDEX) Guar Gum July(MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 27, 2013 Support 6880-7010 6870-7000 19800-20200 19770-20160 Resistance 7300-7420 7300-7420 21000-21400 20960-21370

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX July contract

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com