Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
27 June 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
www.intellisys.uk.com
27 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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27 June 2013
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
27 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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27 June 2013
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Page 5 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
389.20
279.00
427.00
Neutral
Buy
Target
557
Beta
0.67
CHEMRING GROUP
275.70
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
324
0.66
COBHAM
261.30
190.10
293.40
Neutral
Neutral
275
0.82
MEGGITT
511.50
366.20
534.50
Neutral
Neutral
488
1.32
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1133.00
799.39
1225.00
Neutral
Neutral
1094
1.07
SMITHS GROUP
1270.00
992.50
1390.00
Neutral
Sell
1065
0.71
1657.00
1424.00
1843.00
Neutral
Neutral
1579
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
294.50
174.30
313.40
Neutral
Neutral
292
2.02
INCHCAPE
490.20
321.00
577.50
Neutral
Buy
543
1.48
LOOKERS
106.50
60.50
110.00
Neutral
Sell
96
1.23
24.00
13.50
26.50
Neutral
Buy
33
1.11
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
288.85
150.55
333.85
Neutral
Sell
-843
1.94
677.80
510.60
769.90
Neutral
Buy
823
1.17
62.48
28.76
62.96
Sell
Sell
1.89
280.30
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-167
1.35
STANDARD CHARTERED
1430.50
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3273
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
508.00
399.20
588.50
Neutral
Neutral
547
0.55
DIAGEO
1874.50
1624.00
2085.00
Neutral
Sell
1647
0.55
SABMILLER
3152.50
2523.00
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
3639
0.95
BARR (AG)
Target
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALENT
331.20
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Buy
428
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
310.30
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
531
1.23
CARCLO
374.75
342.75
503.00
Neutral
Sell
143
0.73
2429.00
2164.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3187
1.04
228.00
179.00
275.00
Neutral
Buy
301
0.99
1.45
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2563.00
2080.27
2750.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4805
VICTREX
1534.00
1185.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1324
1.14
SYNTHOMER
190.50
127.40
225.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
371
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
204.50
161.00
225.00
Neutral
Buy
273
1.00
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27 June 2013
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Page 6 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
92.50
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
253
Beta
BALFOUR BEATTY
235.50
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1245
0.80
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
307.40
130.20
346.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
594
1.58
1.15
0.51
BELLWAY
1284.00
786.50
1377.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2841
2110.00
1343.00
2207.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3271
0.66
BOOT (HENRY)
170.00
115.50
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
405
0.83
1.20
750.50
451.00
778.50
Neutral
Buy
1051
CARILLION
261.90
235.50
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1503
1.12
CLARKE (T)
49.88
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
449
0.82
COSTAIN GROUP
270.75
202.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1110
0.57
1322.00
1090.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
836
1.14
GALLIFORD TRY
924.00
606.00
999.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2878
1.01
KELLER
960.00
356.00
988.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2278
1.26
1150.00
1106.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5360
0.97
62.00
50.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
217
1.07
1.39
CRH
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
MARSHALLS
131.25
76.00
142.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
400
593.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4324
0.87
16.00
10.63
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
60
1.15
NORCROS
1161.00
532.17
1280.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1987
1.20
REDROW
PERSIMMON
217.30
113.80
238.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
450
1.09
SIG
167.10
88.85
179.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
500
1.79
44.00
44.00
325.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
67
0.88
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
94.95
42.72
103.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
227
1.67
TRAVIS PERKINS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
1446.00
918.00
1611.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4090
2.01
WOLSELEY
3028.00
2237.39
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5755
1.46
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1120.00
994.50
1365.00
Neutral
Sell
762
0.75
600.00
511.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
832
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
118.00
105.50
144.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
244
1.29
INVENSYS
403.60
217.33
417.20
Neutral
Sell
362
1.41
LAIRD
179.30
171.10
249.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
306
2.13
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1248.00
1200.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1176
1.00
RENISHAW
1563.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2496
1.26
SPECTRIS
1925.00
1459.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2616
1.52
0.08
0.07
0.13
Neutral
Sell
0.84
TT ELECTRONICS
152.00
114.00
178.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
299
1.58
XAAR
790.00
196.00
813.50
Neutral
Sell
221
1.11
DIALIGHT
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Target
Beta
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+44 20 3239 8994
Page 7 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
83.50
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Buy
122
1.28
BODYCOTE
514.50
310.30
563.00
Neutral
Buy
629
1.60
CASTINGS
371.50
291.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
614
0.99
VESUVIUS
354.30
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
958
2.20
FENNER
315.00
315.00
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
501
1.42
HALMA
504.50
395.50
538.50
Neutral
Sell
350
0.75
430.00
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
334
1.37
1235.00
776.00
1359.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7060
1.41
262.00
220.30
305.00
Neutral
Sell
248
1.82
2625.00
1876.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
1381
1.00
250.10
177.00
280.80
Neutral
Sell
224
1.64
0.79
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
47.38
35.40
83.42
Neutral
Sell
38
SPIRAX-SARCO
2670.00
1903.48
2928.35
Neutral
Sell
1956
0.84
VITEC GROUP
581.50
581.50
740.00
Neutral
Sell
409
1.39
WEIR GROUP
2124.00
1450.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
1992
1.38
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
403.90
398.00
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
661
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
261.20
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Sell
156
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
356.20
294.30
396.50
Neutral
Sell
187
0.57
TESCO
327.60
307.90
387.75
Neutral
Sell
249
0.68
82.25
19.63
100.50
Neutral
Sell
58
0.84
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1689.00
1243.00
2031.00
Neutral
Buy
1982
0.62
CRANSWICK
1145.00
732.50
1164.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1961
0.43
DAIRY CREST
450.00
327.00
503.50
Neutral
Neutral
474
0.94
DEVRO
295.00
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
483
0.32
59.75
54.50
125.75
Neutral
Sell
-181
1.25
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
801.50
634.50
875.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1456
0.71
2591.00
2097.00
2885.00
Neutral
Neutral
2601
0.58
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27 June 2013
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
27.13
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
33
0.69
424.90
241.20
465.60
Neutral
Sell
341
0.54
1324.00
1000.00
1541.00
Neutral
Sell
924
1.27
611.00
585.00
701.50
Neutral
Sell
283
0.95
41.67
14.97
42.90
Neutral
Buy
46
1.51
176.00
55.20
186.00
Neutral
Sell
64
1.13
28.00
19.50
34.00
Sell
Strong Buy
106
0.99
HALFORDS GROUP
311.80
189.00
405.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
481
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
884.50
651.00
920.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1499
0.53
DARTY
Target
Beta
59.25
38.00
72.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
101
1.25
KINGFISHER
342.10
254.10
355.10
Neutral
Neutral
363
0.94
427.70
312.20
485.00
Neutral
Buy
507
0.65
57.00
43.00
71.00
Neutral
Buy
63
1.04
432.00
189.25
432.00
Sell
Buy
482
0.47
NEXT
4495.00
3142.00
4749.00
Neutral
Neutral
4417
0.67
TED BAKER
1680.00
880.00
1789.00
Neutral
Sell
629
0.55
69.75
38.00
71.75
Neutral
Sell
53
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
134.00
126.50
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
116
0.46
CONSORT MEDICAL
810.00
660.50
831.50
Neutral
Sell
569
0.39
OPTOS
117.00
106.75
222.75
Neutral
Buy
153
1.18
733.50
621.00
794.50
Neutral
Sell
667
0.43
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
750.00
567.50
750.00
Neutral
Neutral
730
0.44
HEADLAM GROUP
363.50
265.00
378.75
Neutral
Sell
319
0.92
82.50
55.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
109
0.77
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
795.00
469.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
428
0.74
CSR
517.00
216.10
570.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1438
1.18
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
62.50
28.38
83.25
Neutral
Sell
24
0.90
295.50
291.30
624.00
Neutral
Buy
337
1.08
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
140.30
122.00
170.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
419
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
160.75
160.75
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-679
0.90
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27 June 2013
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Page 9 of 17
Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1308.00
1019.00
1374.00
Neutral
Sell
-472
0.53
AMLIN
392.10
345.30
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1533
0.46
BEAZLEY
225.40
134.90
241.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
954
0.60
CATLIN GROUP
490.00
422.00
552.50
Neutral
Sell
455
0.30
HISCOX
548.00
425.94
600.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1909
0.48
890.00
693.50
917.00
Neutral
Buy
1226
0.31
119.50
105.20
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
727
0.41
NOVAE GROUP
450.00
345.00
507.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3439
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2319.00
2083.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4035
1.01
ENTERPRISE INNS
107.70
55.50
123.80
Neutral
Neutral
106
1.61
TUI TRAVEL
351.70
165.20
373.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
781
1.01
891.00
700.00
925.00
Neutral
Sell
680
0.39
GREENE KING
746.00
531.50
798.00
Neutral
Sell
654
0.93
LADBROKES
194.90
152.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
251
0.93
1777.00
1503.75
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1487
1.18
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
546.00
456.00
582.50
Neutral
Buy
622
1.40
370.90
241.90
408.50
Sell
Sell
318
1.12
112.00
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
37
1.25
13.00
5.61
13.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
50
1.27
160.50
115.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
507
1.00
0.76
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
503.50
296.00
531.00
Neutral
Sell
396
WETHERSPOON (JD)
648.50
416.60
666.00
Neutral
Buy
745
0.69
WHITBREAD
2978.00
2018.00
3031.00
Neutral
Sell
2012
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
431.50
257.85
452.80
Neutral
Sell
258
0.87
MARSTON'S
139.20
102.40
154.70
Neutral
Sell
15
1.21
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
336.20
261.90
388.40
Neutral
Neutral
321
1.25
CHESNARA
239.25
163.00
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
458
0.70
169.10
123.20
187.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
434
1.71
OLD MUTUAL
176.90
149.60
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
362
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1059.00
723.00
1203.00
Neutral
Neutral
1042
1.71
528.50
318.20
640.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6140
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
27 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
124.50
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Sell
-634
0.37
777.50
677.50
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1697
0.54
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
Target
Beta
35.00
29.00
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-20
1.03
740.00
398.50
785.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4075
1.14
1.00
1030.00
714.00
1040.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7486
INFORMA
476.40
350.40
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-60
1.53
ITE GROUP
295.00
183.50
299.00
Sell
Strong Buy
270
1.45
ITV
137.50
70.40
139.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1264
1.54
16.50
4.88
19.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
779
1.27
1156.00
1119.00
1294.00
Neutral
Buy
337
0.63
85.00
36.50
88.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
2621
0.79
278.50
265.00
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
897
0.16
33.72
26.85
36.45
Neutral
Sell
-620
0.50
STV GROUP
135.50
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Sell
259
0.79
ST.IVES
145.00
67.50
166.50
Neutral
Sell
231
1.50
TRINITY MIRROR
107.00
25.50
122.25
Neutral
Sell
-290
1.59
UBM
644.50
561.50
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1889
1.31
0.84
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
164.00
82.00
165.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1347
WPP
1079.00
752.50
1190.00
Neutral
Sell
-519
1.35
HIBU
0.38
0.26
2.18
Neutral
Strong Buy
808
1.07
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1256.00
1256.00
2163.00
Buy
Sell
1006
1.74
183.50
183.50
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
191
0.96
ANTOFAGASTA
801.50
801.50
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
704
1.41
1673.00
1673.00
2236.00
Neutral
Buy
2362
1.43
GLENCORE XSTRATA
276.00
273.45
397.85
Buy
Strong Buy
817
#NA
LONMIN
255.00
240.84
411.96
Neutral
Buy
302
2.03
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
3972.00
3972.00
7775.00
Buy
Sell
2486
0.34
RIO TINTO
2649.50
2582.00
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
1962
1.50
3.38
8.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
134
0.89
832.50
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1656
2.20
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
1028.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1131.00
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
836
BP
452.00
408.50
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
941
1.03
CAIRN ENERGY
254.40
250.80
309.40
Neutral
Sell
-19
1.32
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
Beta
0.80
7.60
7.15
12.50
Neutral
Buy
10
0.82
735.50
688.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
536
1.31
1.36
58.00
48.50
115.00
Neutral
Sell
-56
341.10
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Buy
380
1.43
2140.50
2098.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
7858
0.84
350.00
279.00
404.30
Neutral
Buy
460
0.53
1015.00
977.00
1531.00
Neutral
Sell
661
1.04
781.00
666.00
879.50
Neutral
Sell
691
1.35
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
27 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
113.25
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
223
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
340.70
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
288
0.69
4665.00
3300.00
4926.00
Neutral
Neutral
4688
0.36
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.50
0.36
3.58
Neutral
Sell
-2
1.01
3115.00
2792.50
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
6299
0.47
BTG
361.90
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
164
0.58
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
695.00
469.50
780.00
Neutral
Neutral
720
0.25
1620.00
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Neutral
1654
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
1.63
1.55
2.80
Buy
Sell
0.64
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Strong Buy
0.95
2054.00
1727.00
2213.00
Neutral
Sell
1420
0.66
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
63.00
43.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
32
0.73
VERNALIS
21.63
21.63
27.38
Neutral
Sell
10
0.91
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
374.20
276.30
426.70
Neutral
Sell
-634
1.18
BRITISH LAND
563.50
500.00
658.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1697
1.06
Target
Beta
33.50
22.75
37.00
Sell
Sell
-20
0.85
976.50
624.00
1004.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4075
0.70
DERWENT LONDON
2251.00
1789.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7486
1.24
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
189.50
135.75
203.00
Neutral
Sell
-60
0.99
GRAINGER
143.00
85.50
157.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
270
1.58
CLS HOLDINGS
514.00
382.40
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1264
1.10
HAMMERSON
478.10
428.70
554.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
779
1.19
HELICAL BAR
255.00
178.00
297.50
Neutral
Buy
337
0.77
876.00
728.50
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2621
1.16
INTU PROPERTIES
311.60
300.60
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
897
1.09
MCKAY SECURITIES
141.00
128.00
155.00
Neutral
Sell
-620
0.73
378.75
325.00
437.50
Neutral
Sell
259
0.42
326.50
312.50
363.53
Neutral
Sell
231
0.35
76.50
37.00
79.50
Sell
Sell
-290
1.19
SAVILLS
558.00
350.00
610.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1889
0.77
SHAFTESBURY
591.50
505.00
668.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1347
1.05
SEGRO
271.00
214.00
302.80
Neutral
Sell
-519
1.73
ST MODWEN PROPS.
268.00
157.75
329.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
808
1.59
188.00
155.00
223.00
Neutral
Sell
1.01
UNITE GROUP
355.70
189.00
387.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2114
1.79
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
1.00
1.00
2.75
Buy
Sell
-1085
1.03
391.50
225.00
418.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1287
1.05
www.intellisys.uk.com
27 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
134.00
113.00
162.00
Neutral
Sell
123
0.73
2209.00
1569.00
2420.00
Neutral
Sell
1324
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
447.20
290.91
564.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1360
1.00
KOFAX
320.00
251.00
335.00
Neutral
Neutral
325
1.11
28.00
18.25
28.25
Neutral
Sell
24
0.85
688.00
528.58
710.00
Neutral
Buy
1004
0.76
PHOENIX IT GROUP
159.75
130.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
311
0.74
65.00
65.00
85.50
Neutral
Sell
-102
0.52
1868.00
1275.00
2047.00
Neutral
Buy
2121
0.76
333.60
271.46
368.18
Neutral
Buy
428
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
378.30
244.80
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1258
1.09
BREWIN DOLPHIN
223.50
136.30
244.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
655
0.73
8190.00
8000.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
95961
0.84
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
404.00
255.50
410.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
1291
0.97
CHARLES TAYLOR
185.00
147.00
195.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1145
0.69
968.50
729.00
1107.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5062
0.86
95.20
79.55
110.40
Neutral
Sell
68
0.89
3.75
0.55
3.75
Sell
Sell
-124
0.69
HENDERSON GROUP
147.40
90.55
180.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
793
1.44
HELPHIRE GROUP
ICAP
353.60
280.80
386.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1773
1.07
431.40
252.30
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3126
1.70
INVESTEC
413.40
358.40
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1820
1.56
1323.00
930.00
1434.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4332
1.15
84.65
63.25
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-4428
1.32
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1556.00
1208.00
1619.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5556
0.75
SCHRODERS
2134.00
1266.00
2560.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8408
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1652.00
1016.00
2000.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
11052
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
27 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ACAL
230.00
157.75
247.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1230
0.92
AGGREKO
1659.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3388
1.05
AMEC
1001.00
964.50
1172.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3287
1.04
632.50
240.50
671.00
Neutral
Buy
886
1.63
1097.00
842.50
1205.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2214
0.48
536.00
348.00
580.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
1985
0.76
1246.00
1009.00
1342.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2784
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
515.50
214.00
530.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1427
0.39
CAPITA
961.00
644.50
1018.00
Neutral
Sell
233
0.51
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
53.75
26.83
56.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
470
0.78
COMPASS GROUP
835.00
647.50
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1964
0.74
BERENDSEN
746.00
480.10
812.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2840
1.05
DE LA RUE
935.50
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1739
#NA
DIGNITY
1348.00
806.00
1462.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2075
0.22
DIPLOMA
556.50
417.10
627.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1374
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
238.40
197.70
278.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1037
1.04
ESSENTRA PLC
685.00
454.40
750.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1284
1.13
G4S
235.70
232.00
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
894
0.58
HAYS
86.95
66.40
101.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
421
1.10
HOMESERVE
278.50
150.90
290.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1240
0.94
INTERSERVE
494.10
304.90
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3326
1.28
2943.00
2617.00
3453.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4441
0.78
44.88
26.50
47.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
347
1.17
0.72
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
27.75
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
210
MENZIES (JOHN)
697.50
573.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2167
1.43
371.20
341.40
451.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
802
1.42
MITIE GROUP
248.10
248.00
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1260
0.55
82.50
81.00
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
698
0.33
OFFICE2OFFICE
1060.00
670.50
1093.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1714
0.71
PREMIER FARNELL
PAYPOINT
194.30
165.50
236.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
761
1.33
REGUS
152.70
82.65
177.50
Neutral
Sell
66
1.46
88.80
70.35
100.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
308
1.25
REXAM
460.00
407.64
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1731
0.90
RICARDO
381.50
321.50
431.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1606
0.86
ROBERT WALTERS
221.88
176.25
234.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1133
1.24
RPC GROUP
407.70
377.00
477.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1819
0.78
RPS GROUP
200.00
195.50
274.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1023
1.51
SERCO GROUP
597.00
526.00
647.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2314
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
80.50
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
685
1.46
RENTOKIL INITIAL
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
57.00
22.25
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
251
1.26
177.00
82.00
177.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
537
0.63
57.88
40.50
59.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
324
0.93
356.00
260.00
356.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2005
0.86
89.50
42.00
89.50
Sell
Strong Buy
521
0.79
www.intellisys.uk.com
27 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Under Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
305.40
205.40
322.30
Neutral
Buy
357
0.91
40.57
29.22
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
85
0.70
661.00
468.90
749.00
Neutral
Sell
493
0.53
81.00
68.25
88.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
135
1.24
1240.00
790.00
1325.00
Neutral
Sell
743
0.09
183.35
154.45
199.90
Neutral
Neutral
189
0.54
Beta
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
281.00
178.00
288.40
Neutral
Sell
180
1.30
420.00
318.00
430.00
Neutral
Neutral
457
0.98
CLARKSON
1655.00
1150.00
1716.00
Neutral
Sell
1174
0.80
EASYJET
1279.00
516.50
1300.00
Neutral
Sell
700
0.77
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
95.25
92.00
212.39
Neutral
Strong Buy
491
0.91
995.00
590.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
418
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1448.00
1194.00
1588.00
Neutral
Buy
1886
0.90
NATIONAL EXPRESS
223.70
164.50
230.50
Neutral
Buy
262
1.35
1.41
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
NORTHGATE
338.25
195.50
369.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
704
STAGECOACH GROUP
310.00
261.90
319.60
Neutral
Buy
393
0.89
64.63
31.00
78.50
Neutral
Sell
-44
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
354.60
310.80
394.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
548
0.47
NATIONAL GRID
726.50
641.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
805
0.50
PENNON GROUP
631.50
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
740
0.59
SSE
1482.00
1294.00
1676.00
Neutral
Buy
2047
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
1636.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1423
0.35
672.00
647.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
645
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
27 June 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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No Intellisys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire any shares or other
financial instruments in any company or any interest therein, nor shall it form the basis of any contract
entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
Intellisys believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any
person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for
the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
Intellisys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have positions
in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and may buy,
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sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by internal
rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
Intellisys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided
solely to enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you must contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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