President Obamas Upcoming Trip to Africa 18 June 2013 David H.

Shinn Q: Why do you think Barack Obama picked Tanzania as one of the three African countries hes visiting? A: Any US presidential visit to multiple African countries requires geographical and language diversity. Once a decision is made to visit 3 countries, the obvious regional selections are West Africa, Southern Africa and East Africa/Horn of Africa. Senegal is the West Africa/francophone choice. South Africa is the Southern Africa selection. This leaves East Africa and the Horn where the realistic possibilities are Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia and Tanzania. I believe the US ruled out Kenya, the most likely choice under normal circumstances because Obamas father is from Kenya. The controversy concerning the International Criminal Court (ICC) charges against recently elected President Uhuru Kenyatta and Vice President William Ruto simply raised too many concerns. Of the remaining choicesEthiopia, Uganda and Tanzaniathe latter has a better record on democratization than the other two and was the choice by default. US Secretary of State John Kerry did visit Ethiopia in May in connection with the 50th anniversary of the Organization of African Unity/African Union. I would also point out that former President George W. Bush visited Tanzania in 2008. Q: What do you think will be the main focus of the Tanzania stop? A: A focus on economic development and US support for that development especially through the $700 million Millennium Challenge Corporation compact with Tanzania. There will also be praise for regularly scheduled national elections, acceptance of presidential term limits and peaceful political transitions, although historically the same party has won the presidency. Q: Tanzania is an African country with long term political and economic ties with China. Would you say that the US chose Tanzania because its a country where Chinas presence and action are strong? Do you see it as a deliberate attempt to counter Chinas influence in the country, and more generally in Eastern Africa or even on the whole continent? Would you say that the US has neglected Africa for too long and is now trying to play catch up with China? A: I dont think the visit to Tanzania has anything to do with Chinas long and cordial relationship with the country. China has a similar relationship with many other countries in Africa. If this were the reason for Obamas visit to Tanzania, one must ask why not visit these other African countries where China has a similar relationship. I think there is an appreciation that the US has not paid sufficient high-level attention to Africa in recent years as compared to what China has been doing. Much of the problem during the Obama 1

Administration has been a preoccupation with pressing domestic problems such as the housing, banking and related financial crises. There have also been foreign policy issues such as Iraq, Afghanistan and North Korea that have preempted Africa. The US has not neglected Africa; its annual aid to the continent totals about $8 billion compared to $2.5 billion of OECD-equivalent aid from China. The US has also been active in countering extremism in East Africa, the Horn and the Sahel region. Much of Chinas engagement has been conducted by private and stateowned companies. The US private sector in recent years has not kept pace. To some extent, the US is now trying to play catch up with China and other countries such as Brazil, India and Turkey. Q: How much are US and Chinese interests in Tanzania and Africa in conflict? Would you say that Tanzania, and Africa in general, can benefit from US-Chinese competition? A: The US competes with China and many other countries, including those in Europe, for trade and commercial contracts. This is normal, healthy competition which works to the benefit of Africa. Recently, China and other emerging nations have been winning this competition in Africa vis--vis the US and European countries. As North America and Europe put the financial crisis behind it, I believe they will reemerge as strong competitors in Africa. International commerce is dynamic; no country stays on top forever. There are also areas for US-China-Europe cooperation in Africa and especially in countries like Tanzania, which receives assistance from all three to combat malaria. I believe this assistance would be more effective if the three parties coordinated their anti-malaria efforts more closely than has been the case in the past. The same argument applies across the continent where the US, China and European Union are engaged in economic development, especially in the health and agricultural sectors. The major difference in the US and Chinese approach to Africa concerns support (or lack thereof) for democratization and improved human rights practices. China generally does not engage on these issues while they are a high priority for the US, albeit not always on a consistent basis. Q: Would you say that Tanzania is as important to the US as it is for China for both economic (gas, oil, minerals) and political reasons? A: Tanzania is equally important to the US and China for political reasons. From the standpoint of trade, China is far more important to Tanzania. In 2011, China exported $1.8 billion in goods to Tanzania and imported $428 million from Tanzania. By contrast, the US exported $284 million to Tanzania and imported $54 million from Tanzania. I suspect that China in recent years has been a larger investor in Tanzania than the US. Chinese state-owned and private companies certainly win more contracts than do American private companies.

Q: Would you say that the visit to Tanzania of both American and Chinese presidents in recent months is a sign of growing political and economic weight of Tanzania in Eastern Africa? Would you say that it is a sign that Tanzania is gaining political and economic momentum in the region, to the detriment of Kenya, that neither Barack Obama nor Xi Jinping decided to visit (even if for different reasons)? A: I would note that former Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Kenya in 2006. The visits this year to Tanzania by President Barack Obama and President Xi Jinping do signal the growing importance of Tanzania in the region and in Africa more broadly. While the visits take the spotlight away from Kenya temporarily, they do not signal the decline of Kenya, which remains the most important economic player in the region. If Kenya can get the ICC issue behind it, I believe this will open the door for significantly improved US-Kenya relations. There is a long and close relationship between the American and Kenyan people and important ties at the governmental level since Kenyas independence. China also has a strong presence in Kenya.