Vietnam

SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS Sept 3, 2008

Analyst: Rolf Danielsen. Tel : +46 8 763 83 92. E-mail : rolf.danielsen@seb.se

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Country Risk Analysis

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important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Sept. 3, 2008

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16700
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tÜáäÉ=ëìÅÜ=áåÑäçïë=~äëç=ïáää=Çê~ï=ä~êÖÉ=áãéçêíëI=íÜÉ=åÉí=ÉÑÑÉÅí=çå=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=
ëÜçìäÇ=ëíáää=ÄÉ=éçëáíáîÉI=~åÇ=éÉêÜ~éë=ÉîÉå=ãçêÉ=ëç=áå=íÜÉ=äçåÖÉê=íÉêãK==qÜ~í=áë=
ÄÉÅ~ìëÉ=íÜÉëÉ=áåîÉëíãÉåíë=~êÉ=äáâÉäó=íç=ÄÉ=ãçêÉ=ÉÑÑáÅáÉåí=íÜ~å=íÜÉ=~îÉê~ÖÉ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=
áåîÉëíãÉåí=ïÜáÅÜ=áë=Ççãáå~íÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=
FDI (m ain secto rs)
ëí~íÉ=çïåÉÇ=ÉåíÉêéêáëÉëI=Äìí=~äëç=
10
ÄÉÅ~ìëÉ=íÜÉ=Éñéçêí=áåÇìëíêáÉëI=~ë=
USD (billions)

8
çééçëÉÇ=íç=íÜÉ=åçåJíê~ÇÉ~ÄäÉë=ëÉÅíçêëI=
6
~éé~êÉåíäó=êÉÅÉáîÉ=ãçëí=çÑ=cafë=áå=íÜÉ=
4
Å~ëÉ=çÑ=sáÉíå~ãK==qÜ~í=áë=Åçåíê~êó=íç=íÜÉ=
2
ÉñéÉêáÉåÅÉ=çÑ=ã~åó=çíÜÉê=ÉãÉêÖáåÖ=
0
ã~êâÉíëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=áå=bìêçéÉ=~åÇ=i~íáå= 200 6 2007

^ãÉêáÅ~I=ïÜÉêÉ=ä~êÖÉ=caf=áåÑäçïë=çÑíÉå= hotel & tourism

petroleum
ÑçÅìë=çå=íÜÉ=êÉí~áä=ëÉÅíçêI=Ñáå~åÅá~ä= heavy industry
ëÉêîáÅÉëI=~åÇ=êÉ~ä=Éëí~íÉK==eçïÉîÉêI= light industry
So urce: Reu ters Eco Win

ëÜçìäÇ=íÜÉ=caf=áåÑäçïë=Öêçï=ãìÅÜ=
ÑìêíÜÉê=íÜÉ=~Äëçêéíáçå=Å~é~Åáíó=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=ïçìäÇ=ÄÉ=ëÉêáçìëäó=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉÇ=~åÇ=
Éñ~ÅÉêÄ~íÉ=çåÖçáåÖ=áåÑä~íáçå=éêçÄäÉãëK==fí=ëÜçìäÇ=ÄÉ=ãÉåíáçåÉÇI=íÜçìÖÜI=íÜ~í=~äëç=áå=
sáÉíå~ã=íÜÉêÉ=~êÉ=êÉéçêíë=çÑ=caf=áåíç=êÉ~ä=Éëí~íÉ=êÉÅÉåíäó=éáÅâáåÖ=ìé=èìáíÉ=ê~éáÇäóK==
=
tÜ~í=äáÉë=~ÜÉ~Ç\====
=
fåÑä~íáçå=ã~ó=ëíáää=åçí=óÉí=Ü~îÉ=éÉ~âÉÇK=cçê=íÜÉ=êÉëí=çÑ=íÜÉ=óÉ~êI=áí=ÅçìäÇ=ÄÉ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=
ÑçêÉáÖå=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ã~êâÉí=ïáää=åçí=éêçîÉ=íç=ÄÉ=íÜÉ=~ìíÜçêáíáÉëÛ=ã~áå=ÅçåÅÉêåI=Äìí=íÜ~í=
íÜÉ=ÜÉ~Ç~ÅÜÉ=ïçìäÇ=ê~íÜÉê=ÄÉ=ÜçãÉ=ã~ÇÉ=áåÑä~íáçåK==få=gìäóI=Åìíë=áå=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=

3
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Sept. 3, 2008

ëìÄëáÇáÉë=ÜáâÉÇ=Ö~ëçäáåÉ=éêáÅÉë=Äó=PSBI=~åÇ=ãçêÉ=ã~ó=ÄÉ=áå=íÜÉ=éáéÉäáåÉ=~ë=íÜÉ=
ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ïáää=Ü~îÉ=íç=~Çàìëí=éêáÅÉë=çÑ=ëÉîÉê~ä=ìíáäáíáÉë=~åÇ=íê~åëéçêí~íáçåK=pÉÅçåÇ=
êçìåÇ=ÉÑÑÉÅíë=çÑ=íÜÉ=ëíÉÉé=êáëÉë=áå=ÅçåëìãÉê=éêáÅÉë=É~êäáÉê=áå=íÜÉ=óÉ~ê=ÅçìäÇ=~äëç=ëÜçï=
ìéI=~ë=íÜÉêÉ=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=êÉéçêíë=çÑ=ã~åó=ëíêáâÉë=Ñçê=ÜáÖÜÉê=ï~ÖÉë=áå=êÉÅÉåí=íáãÉëK=lå=
íÜáë=Ä~ëáë=ã~åó=çÄëÉêîÉêë=åçï=ÉñéÉÅí=~=åÉï=Äçìí=çÑ=`mf=áåÑä~íáçå=çîÉê=íÜÉ=åÉñí=ÑÉï=
ãçåíÜëI=éêçÄ~Ääó=êÉ~ÅÜáåÖ=ïÉää=ÄÉóçåÇ=PMB=çå=~å=~ååì~ä=Ä~ëáëK=eçïÉîÉêI=~Ä~íáåÖ=
ÖäçÄ~ä=çáä=éêáÅÉë=~åÇ=~=ÖççÇ=êáÅÉ=Ü~êîÉëí=íÜáë=ëìããÉê=ëÜçìäÇ=ãáíáÖ~íÉ=íÜÉ=äçåÖÉê=íÉêã=
ÉÑÑÉÅí=çå=éêáÅÉ=Ñçêã~íáçå=ÖçáåÖ=áåíç=OMMVK==qÜ~í=ÇçÉë=åçí=ãÉ~å=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=ÑçêÉáÖå=
ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ã~êâÉí=Å~ååçí=Å~ìëÉ=ãçêÉ=íêçìÄäÉI=Äìí=çìê=éêçàÉÅíáçåë=EÅçåÑK=~ééÉåÇáñFI=
áåÇáÅ~íÉ=íÜ~í=ÉîÉå=áå=~=êÉ~ëçå~ÄäÉ=ïçêëí=Å~ëÉ=ëÅÉå~êáç=íÜÉ=êÉëÉêîÉ=äÉîÉä=áë=ìåäáâÉäó=íç=
Ñ~ää=éêÉÅáéáíçìëäó=íÜêçìÖÜ=íÜÉ=êÉëí=çÑ=íÜÉ=óÉ~êK===
=
`çããìåáÅ~íáçå=ÅçìäÇ=áãéêçîÉK=cçê=OMMVI=ã~áåí~áåáåÖ=ëí~Äáäáíó=~åÇ=ÅçåÑáÇÉåÅÉ=
ÅêìÅá~ääó=ÇÉéÉåÇë=çå=íÜÉ=~ìíÜçêáíáÉëÛ=~Äáäáíó=íç=~ÑÑÉÅí=ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë=~ãçåÖ=íÜÉ=ÖÉåÉê~ä=
éçéìä~íáçå=~åÇ=áåîÉëíçêëI=ÑçêÉáÖå=~åÇ=ÇçãÉëíáÅK===lîÉê=íÜÉ=é~ëí=íïÉäîÉ=ãçåíÜëI=íÜÉ=
~ìíÜçêáíáÉë=Ü~îÉ=çÑíÉå=Ñ~áäÉÇ=íç=ÅçããìåáÅ~íÉ=ÉÑÑÉÅíáîÉäó=ïáíÜ=ã~êâÉíëI=~åÇ=Ü~îÉ=ëÉåí=
ãáñÉÇ=ëáÖå~äë=~ë=êÉÖ~êÇë=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=~åÇ=ãçåÉí~êó=éçäáÅáÉëK====qÜÉó=ã~ó=ÉîÉå=
Ü~îÉ=ã~ÇÉ=íÜÉ=Å~êÇáå~ä=ãáëí~âÉ=çÑ=íêóáåÖ=íç=ëçêí=çìí=ëçãÉ=ãáÅêçJÉÅçåçãáÅ=éêçÄäÉãëI=
áåÅäìÇáåÖ=áå=íÜÉ=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ëÉÅíçêI=ïáíÜ=“ÄäìåíÒ=ã~ÅêçJÉÅçåçãáÅ=íççäëK==qÜÉ=
ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=Ü~îÉI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=~äëç=ëÅçêÉÇ=ëçãÉ=éçáåíëI=~ë=Ñçê=Éñ~ãéäÉ=ïÜÉå=áí=ãáÇJ
íÉêã=~ååçìåÅÉÇ=~=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí=êÉÇìÅíáçå=áå=áíë=ÖêçïíÜ=í~êÖÉí=Ñçê=OMMU=Ñêçã=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=
UB=íç=SIRBI=ìåÇÉêëÅçêáåÖ=áíë=ÇÉíÉêãáå~íáçå=íç=ÑáÖÜí=áåÑä~íáçåK==mçäáíáÅáòáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÖêçïíÜ=
ê~íÉ=áë=çåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÄáÖÖÉëí=ãáëí~âÉë=Äó=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíë=áå=ã~åó=ÉãÉêÖáåÖ=ã~êâÉíë=E~åÇ=
éÉêÜ~éë=ëçãÉ=ÉãÉêÖÉÇ=~ë=ïÉääF=êÉÖ~êÇäÉëë=çÑ=áÇÉçäçÖáÅ~ä=ÜìÉK==
=
fåíÉêÄ~åâ=äáèìáÇáíó=áë=ÅêìÅá~äK=_ìí=ÉîÉå=áÑ=íÜÉ=~ìíÜçêáíáÉë=ëÜçìäÇ=éêçîÉ=èìáÅâ=
äÉ~êåÉêë=Ñêçã=éêÉîáçìë=ãáëí~âÉëI=áí=ã~ó=ëíáää=åÉÉÇ=äìÅâ=áå=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜë=~ÜÉ~ÇK==qçç=
ÜáÖÜ=áåÑä~íáçå=ã~ó=Ü~îÉ=ÅçãÉ=íç=ëí~ó=~åÇ=ÅçìäÇ=ÉîÉåíì~ääó=éêçîÉ=ÇÉëí~ÄáäáòáåÖ=
ìåäÉëë=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=ëÜ~êéÉåë=áíë=ïÉ~éçåë=áå=~=íáãÉäó=ã~ååÉêI=ïÜáÅÜ=áå=éê~ÅíáÅ~ä=
íÉêãë=ã~ó=ãÉ~å=çîÉê=íÜÉ=åÉñí=ÑÉï=ãçåíÜëK=qÜ~í=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=ãÉ~å=äÉëë=ëìééäó=çÑ=
äáèìáÇáíó=~åÇ=ÜáÖÜÉê=áåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉëK=qÜÉ=ä~ííÉê=ïçìäÇ=éçëÉ=~=éêçÄäÉã=Ñçê=íÜÉ=ã~åó=
gp_ë=ïÜáÅÜ=Éñé~åÇÉÇ=ÉñíêÉãÉäó=ê~éáÇäó=áå=OMMTK==j~åó=ÉîÉå=ÇçìÄäÉÇ=íÜÉáê=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=
ëÜÉÉíë=çÑíÉå=Ä~ëÉÇ=çå=ÉñéÉåëáîÉ=ÇÉéçëáí= Motor Vehicles, Domestic Sales
çê=áåíÉêÄ~åâ=ÑìåÇáåÖK=qÜÉ=sáÉíå~ãÉëÉ= 14000

Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉã=áë=Ñê~ÖãÉåíÉÇI=Äìí=ëíáää=
13000
12000
Ççãáå~íÉÇ=Äó=~=Ü~åÇÑìä=çÑ=ä~êÖÉ=Ä~åâëI= 11000

~ää=çÑ=íÜÉã=ëí~íÉ=çïåÉÇK==qçÖÉíÜÉê=íÜÉó= 10000
Number of

9000
êÉéêÉëÉåí=ëçãÉ=RMB=çÑ=íÜÉ=íçí~ä=Ä~åâáåÖ= 8000
ã~êâÉíK==^ãçåÖ=íÜÉ=gp_ë=ã~åó=~êÉ= 7000

ã~å~ÖÉÇ=áå=~=éêçÑÉëëáçå~ä=ã~ååÉêI= 6000
5000
áåÅäìÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=ëÉîÉê~ä=ïáíÜ=~=ã~àçê= 4000

ÑçêÉáÖå=ëí~âÉK=mçíÉåíá~ä=éêçÄäÉã=Ä~åâë= 3000
2000
~êÉ=äáâÉäó=íç=ÄÉ=ê~íÜÉê=ëã~ääI=~åÇ=íÜÉ= 2006 2007 2008
~ìíÜçêáíáÉë=ëÜçìäÇ=ÄÉ=~ÄäÉ=íç=Åçåí~áå=~åó= Source: Reuters EcoWin

éêçÄäÉãë=~êáëáåÖ=~ãçåÖ=íÜÉãK==
eçïÉîÉêI=êÉÅÉåí=ÉîÉåíë=áå=çíÜÉê=ÅçìåíêáÉë=Ü~îÉ=ëÜçïå=íÜ~í=ÉîÉå=ëã~ää=Ä~åâ=
éêçÄäÉãë=Å~å=éêçîÉ=îÉêó=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖáåÖ=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=ãçëí=ÉñéÉêáÉåÅÉÇ=ÅÉåíê~ä=
Ä~åâë=áå=íÜÉ=ïçêäÇK===
=
^=ãáåçê=Ä~åâáåÖ=Åêáëáë=ëÜçìäÇ=ÄÉ=Åçåí~áå~ÄäÉK==pÜçìäÇ=sáÉíå~ã=ÉñéÉêáÉåÅÉ=~=ãáåçê=
Ä~åâáåÖ=Åêáëáë==áå=OMMVI=íÜÉêÉ=ïçìäÇ=ÄÉ=~=ÅäÉ~ê=êáëâ=çÑ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=
ã~êâÉí=íìêÄìäÉåÅÉ=~ë=íÜçëÉ=ïÜç=Å~å=ïçìäÇ=ÄÉ=ÜÉ~ÇáåÖ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=Éñáí=~åÇ=çíÜÉêë=ïçìäÇ=
Éñéäçáí=~åó=çééçêíìåáíó=íç=ÜÉÇÖÉI=Ñçê=Éñ~ãéäÉ=Äó=éêÉJé~óáåÖ=Ñçê=áãéçêíëK=råÇÉê=

4
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Sept. 3, 2008

åçêã~ä=ÅáêÅìãëí~åÅÉë=ïÉ=ÑçêÉëÉÉ=íÜÉ=äÉîÉä=çÑ=êÉëÉêîÉë=áå=íÜÉ=Ü~åÇë=çÑ=p_s=ÄÉáåÖ=
ëìÑÑáÅáÉåí=íç=ãÉÉí=íÜ~í=Éñíê~=ÇÉã~åÇ=Ñçê=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉI=ÖáîÉå=íÜÉ=êÉä~íáîÉäó=
äáãáíÉÇ=~ãçìåí=íÜ~í=Å~å=äÉ~îÉ=íÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=çå=ëÜçêí=åçíáÅÉ=ÇìÉ=íç=Å~éáí~ä=Åçåíêçäë=íÜ~í=
ëíáää=ëÉÉã=íç=Ü~îÉ=ëçãÉ=ÉÑÑÉÅíK==eçïÉîÉêI=áå=~=äÉëë=ÄÉåáÖå=ëÅÉå~êáçI=ïÜÉêÉ=íÜÉ=
ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=éêçîÉë=ìå~ÄäÉ=íç=êÉëíê~áå=áãéçêíë=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=Ñçê=plb=áåîÉëíãÉåíëI=çê=
ïÜÉêÉ=Ñçê=áåëí~åÅÉ=éêáî~íÉ=Å~ê=áãéçêíë=ÉñéÉêáÉåÅÉ=~=åÉï=ëìêÖÉ=JJ=~ÑíÉê=íÜÉ=ÜáâáåÖ=çÑ=
áãéçêí=í~êáÑÑë=áå=^éêáä=Ä~Åâ=íç=íÜÉ=tql=~ÖêÉÉÇ=äÉîÉä=Eáå=OMMT=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=Ü~Ç=
ëä~ëÜÉÇ=íÜçëÉ=í~êáÑÑë=ÄÉóçåÇ=tql=ÅçããáíãÉåíëF=íÜÉ=Å~ê=áãéçêíë=Ü~îÉ=åçï=ëÜêìåâ=~=
äçí=JJ=íÜÉ=íê~ÇÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=ÅçìäÇ=çåÅÉ=~Ö~áå=ïáÇÉå=~åÇ=ÉñÅÉÉÇ=åÉí=áåÑäçïë=çÑ=caf=~åÇ=
êÉãáíí~åÅÉëK==qÜçëÉ=áåÑäçïë=Ñìääó=ÅçîÉêÉÇ=íÜÉ=íê~ÇÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=áå=OMMTI=Äìí=ïÉêÉ=
áåëìÑÑáÅáÉåí=íç=ÅçîÉê=íÜÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=áå=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=Ü~äÑ=çÑ=OMMUI=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=Éëíáã~íÉë=ïÉ=
Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=ÑçêÅÉÇ=íç=ã~âÉ=çìêëÉäîÉë=áå=íÜÉ=~ÄëÉåÅÉ=~å=çÑÑáÅá~ä=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=çÑ=é~óãÉåíë=
éêÉëÉåí~íáçåK==jçêÉçîÉêI=íÜÉ=äÉîÉä=çÑ=êÉãáíí~åÅÉë=ÅçìäÇ=ÇïáåÇäÉK===jìÅÜ=çÑ=íÜÉã=
êÉéêÉëÉåí=~=âáåÇ=çÑ=ëéÉÅìä~íáîÉ=Å~êêóJíê~ÇÉK==i~ëí=Äìí=åçí=äÉ~ëíI=ã~åó=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÇáêÉÅí=
áåîÉëíçêë=ÅçìäÇ=éçëíéçåÉ=íÜÉáê=éä~åëI=åçí=çåäó=çìí=çÑ=ÅçåÅÉêå=Ñçê=íÜÉ=ëáíì~íáçå=áå=
sáÉíå~ãI=Äìí=ëáãéäó=ÄÉÅ~ìëÉ=ïÉ~âÉê=éêçëéÉÅíë=Ñçê=íÜÉáê=éêçÇìÅí=ã~êâÉíë=áå=tÉëíÉêå=
ÅçìåíêáÉëK==
JJGJJ=
=
sáÉíå~ã=Ü~ë=ÄÉÅçãÉ=íç=ÄÉ=ëÉÉå=~ë=~=åÉï=“`Üáå~Ò=çÑ=çééçêíìåáíáÉë=~ãçåÖ=
áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=áåîÉëíçêë=åÉîÉê=ãáåÇ=íÜÉ=áåÅçãé~ê~ÄäÉ=ÇáÑÑÉêÉåÅÉ=áå=ëáòÉK=qÜÉ=ÑÉêîçê=
ÜÉ~íÉÇ=~ë=sáÉíå~ã=àçáåÉÇ=íÜÉ=tql=áå=ä~íÉ=OMMSI=~åÇ=ëçãÉ=ÇÉÖêÉÉ=çÑ=“áêê~íáçå~ä=
ÉñìÄÉê~åÅÉÒã~ó=Ü~îÉ=í~âÉå=Åçåíêçä=çÑ=ã~åó=ã~êâÉí=é~êíáÅáé~åíëI=ïÜáäÉ=çíÜÉêë=
ã~ó=Ü~îÉ=êÉíìêåÉÇ=Ñêçã=`Üáå~=Ü~îáåÖ=ÄÉÉå=ÇáëÅçìê~ÖÉÇ=Äó=áíë=êáëáåÖ=Åçëíë=~åÇ=
äÉëë=Ñ~îçê~ÄäÉ=í~ñ=íêÉ~íãÉåíK=qÜ~íI=ÅçãÄáåÉÇ=ïáíÜ=íê~Çáíáçå~ääó=ä~ñ=ãçåÉí~êó=~åÇ=
ÑáëÅ~ä=éçäáÅáÉë=~åÇ=éêçÄ~Ääó=ëçãÉ=ïÉääJáåíÉåÇÉÇ=Äìí=éêÉã~íìêÉ=äáÄÉê~äáò~íáçåI=ëÉåí=
íÜÉ=sáÉíå~ãÉëÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=áåíç=çîÉêÇêáîÉ=ïáíÜ=~ÅÅÉäÉê~íáåÖ=ÇçìÄäÉ=ÇáÖáí=áåÑä~íáçå=
~åÇ=~=ëç~êáåÖ=íê~ÇÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=~ë=íÜÉ=áåÉîáí~ÄäÉ=ÅçåëÉèìÉåÅÉë=ëáåÅÉ=ä~íÉ=OMMTK==qÜÉ=
ëáíì~íáçå=åçï=Å~ääë=Ñçê=~=Ü~êÇ=ÜÉ~ÇÉÇ=~ééêç~ÅÜ=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=~ìíÜçêáíáÉë=íç=ã~áåí~áå=
áåîÉëíçê=ÅçåÑáÇÉåÅÉ=~åÇ=ëÉí=ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë=áå=ëìééçêí=ë=çÑ=~==ëìëí~áå~ÄäÉ=
ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíK=tÜáäÉ=ïÉ=ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ìåÇÉêëí~åÇë=ïÜ~í=áí=Ü~ë=íç=ÇçI=ïÉ=
~êÉ=äÉëë=ÅçåîáåÅÉÇ=çÑ=ïÜ~í=áë=Éèì~ääó=áãéçêí~åíW=áíë=~Äáäáíó=íç=áãéäÉãÉåí=íÜÉ=
åÉÉÇÉÇ=ãÉ~ëìêÉë=~åÇ=áå=ëç=ÇçáåÖ=ÅçããìåáÅ~íÉ=ÉÑÑÉÅíáîÉäó=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=éêáî~íÉ=ëÉÅíçêK==
=

Key ratios 2008 Resilience

12

Population 88,5 10

GDP/capita ($) 1047 6

Macro balance 4
Liquidity
GDP (change) 7% 2

0
Inflation 24%
Curr.Acc. Balance/GDP -15%
Reserves/imports (months) 2,8 Absence of event
Information
Budget balance/GDP -4% risk

Government debt/GDP 38% Vietnam Average EM Egypt

bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW= mÉÉêëW Graph: The pentagon shows the main weaknesses of

cáíÅÜW===__J=LåÉÖ= `Üáå~= Vietnam's creditworthiness in the areas of resilience and
pCmW==__LåÉÖ _ê~òáä= information. We regard event risk as moderate, although
fåÇçåÉëá~= a history of border conflicts with China is a potential
concern.

5
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Sept. 3, 2008

=
=
Key data: 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GDP (mill.US$) 39,6 45,6 52,9 60,9 71,1 92,7 111,9 126,5
GDP/capita (US$) 479 544 622 706 814 1047 1248 1392
GDP (change) 7,3% 7,8% 8,4% 8,2% 8,5% 6,7% 6,8% 7,0%
Investments/GDP 33% 33% 34% 34% 36% 39% 37% 35%
Budget balance/GDP -4% -4% -3% -3% -3,8% -4,0% -4% -4%
Govt debt/GDP 38% 36% 36% 37% 36% 38% 36% 35%
CPI inflation (%) 3,2% 7,8% 8,3% 7,4% 8,3% 24,1% 14,6% 8,0%
Money demand (%) 33% 31% 31% 30% 49% 9% 14% 16%
Stock prices (chng. eoy) -9% 44% 28% 145% 23%
Interest rates 5,4% 5,5% 5,9% 5,8% 6,3% 6,3% 6,3% 6,3%
Exch. Rate ($) 15510 15684 15859 15994 16078 16325 16550 16923
Trade/GDP (%) 127% 139% 143% 150% 165% 172% 161% 159%
Oil price (Brent) $29 $38 $54 $65 $73 $117 $113 $101
Millions US $
Export of goods 23,5 30,0 36,7 44,7 54,2 70,4 84,5 98,0
Imports of goods 26,8 33,4 38,9 46,8 63,3 89,3 96,1 103,1
Other: 1,4 2,5 1,7 1,9 2,2 4,6 1,5 0,2
Current account ($ mill) -1,9 -1,0 -0,6 -0,2 -7,0 -14,3 -10,1 -4,9
(% of GDP) -4,9% -2,1% -1,1% -0,3% -9,8% -15,4% -9,0% -3,9%
FDI 1,5 1,6 2,0 2,4 6,7 9,0 8,5 8,5
Loan repayments -0,5 -0,4 -0,5 -0,5 -1,4 -3,6 -4,9 -5,5
Net other capital flows 3,1 0,6 1,1 2,6 11,9 7,8 5,8 1,9
Balance of payments 2,1 0,8 2,0 4,3 10,2 -1,1 -0,7 0,0
Reserves 6,2 7,0 9,0 13,4 23,6 22,5 21,8 21,8
Total debt 16,0 18,0 19,2 20,2 25,8 40,4 49,3 53,2
o/w short term debt 1,3 2,1 2,6 2,5 3,2 5,0 6,1 6,6
Source: OEF (Oxford Economic Forecasting) and SEB estimates.

Rating history
Fitch (eoy) BB- BB- BB- BB- BB-
S&P (eoy) BB- BB- BB- BB- BB
Type of government: Communist party
Next elections
Other:
Latest PC deal 1993
Recent IMF programs PRGF (Poverty Reduction and Growth Program) interrupted before expiry in 2004.

H o C h i M in h C ity S E
1200

1100
Current account Balance
1000
0%
% of GDP

900

800
-5%
-10%
Index

700

600
-15%
500

400
-20%
300
2003 2005 2007 2009
200
2008-09: forecast main scenario
ja n m aj sep ja n m aj sep ja n m aj sep ja n m aj
05 06 07 08
S o u rc e : R e u t e r s E c o W i n

E x p o r ts ($ b ill.) E M B I, s t r i p p e d s p r e a d
3 ,5 450

400
3 ,0
350
2 ,5
USD (billions)

Basis Points

300
2 ,0
250
1 ,5
200

1 ,0 150

0 ,5 100
04 05 06 07 08
50
D o m e s t ic e c o n o m ic s e c t o r 2005 2006 2007 2008
F o r e ig n D ir e c t In v e s t m e n t s e c t o r V ie tn a m C o m p o s ite
S o u r c e : R e u te r s E c o W i n S o u r c e : R e u te rs E c o W i n
=

6
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Sept. 3, 2008

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=

7
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Sept. 3, 2008

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=

8
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Sept. 3, 2008

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