MBA Program

CORE PHASE 2006-2007 September Intake Section Bilingue

METHODES STATISTIQUES EN GESTION

Estimation et Test Exercises

Professeur : Michel Tenenhaus

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EXERCICES ESTIMATION ET TEST

Les textes en anglais sont extraits de : J.T. McClave, P.G. Benson & T. Sincich, Statistics for Business and Economics, Seventh Edition, Prentice Hall International, 1998. Les textes en franais ont t proposs par les professeurs du dpartement SIAD. I. 1. ESTIMATION DUNE PROPORTION ET DUNE MOYENNE Many public polling agencies conduct surveys to determine the current consumer sentiment concerning the state of the economy. For example, the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) at the University of Florida conducts quarterly surveys to gauge consumer sentiment in the Sunshine State. Suppose that BEBR randomly samples 484 consumers and find that 257 are optimistic about the state of the economy. a. Use a 95% confidence interval to estimate the proportion of all consumers in Florida who are optimistic about the state of the economy. Based on the confidence interval, can BEBR infer that the majority of Florida consumers are optimistic about the economy? b. Repeat part a, using a 90% confidence interval. According to the Minneapolis Star (May 2, 1980, p. 11A), the federal government requires states to certify that they are enforcing the 55-miles-per-hour speed limit and that motorists are driving at that speed. A state is in jeopardy of losing millions of dollars in federal road funds if more than 60% of its vehicles on 55-mph highways are exceeding the speed limit. The Minnesota Highway Patrol conducts 70 radar surveys each year at a total of 50 sites to estimate the proportion p of vehicles exceeding 55 miles per hour. Each sample survey involves at least 400 vehicles. a. How large a sample should be selected at site # 42 on Interstate 35W to estimate p to within 3% with 95% confidence? Last year approximately 60% of all vehicles exceeded 55 miles per hour. b. The highway patrol also estimates to within 0.25 mile per hour with 90% confidence. Assume that the standard deviation of vehicle speeds is approximately 2 miles per hour. How large a sample should be taken at site # 42 to estimate with the desired reliability? Unoccupied seats on flights cause the airlines to lose revenue. Suppose a large airline wants to estimate its average number of unoccupied seats per flight over the past year. To accomplish this, the records of 225 flights are randomly selected and the number of unoccupied seats is noted for each of the sampled flights. The sample mean and standard deviation are
x =11.6 seats

2.

3.

s = 4.1 seats

Estimate , the mean number of unoccupied seats per flight during the past year, using a 90% confidence interval.

4.

The United States Golf Association (USGA) tests all new brands of golf balls to assure that they meet USGA specifications. One test conducted is intended to measure the average distance traveled when the ball is hit by a machine called Iron Byron, a name inspired by the swing of the famous golfer Byron Nelson. Suppose the USGA wants to estimate the mean distance for a new brand with a 90% confidence interval of width 2 yards. Assume that past tests have indicated that the standard deviation of the distances Iron Byron hits golf balls is approximately 10 yards. How many golf balls should be hit by Iron Byron to achieve the desired accuracy in estimating the mean. La socit Unilever possde une division Produits de Soins, dont fait partie le savon DOVE. Pour estimer le march potentiel dun nouveau produit, un sondage est effectu pour mesurer la consommation moyenne de savon dans la population considre comme la cible privilgie de ce produit (femmes actives de plus de trente cinq ans et de moins de soixante ans). La consommation mensuelle moyenne ressort 3,73 onces (lunit de mesure internationale utilise chez Unilever) sur un chantillon de trente personnes, avec un cart-type calcul de 1,6 once. a) b) Donner un intervalle de confiance 95% de la consommation mensuelle moyenne de savon de la population cible. Calculer la taille de lchantillon permettant de rduire la largeur totale de lintervalle de confiance 95% 0.5 onces ?

5.

II. 6.

TESTS DE COMPARAISON A UN STANDARD Floridas housing market remains strong due to the steady stream of new residents fleeing harsh northern winters. This year, the state association of realtors claims that the mean cost of a new home in Florida is $90 380. One realtor who claims that this figure is too low obtained a random sample of 30 sale prices from a list of all homes sold in Florida during the last 6 months. The sample mean and standard deviation were:
x = $93 290

s = $6 500

a. b. 7.

The realtor wishes to conduct a hypothesis test to substantiate her claim. Identify the null and alternative hypotheses of interest to her. Find the observed significance level for this test, and interpret its value.

The beta coefficients of stocks are a measure of their volatility (or risk) relative to the market as a whole. Stocks with beta coefficients greater than 1 generally bear greater risk (more volatility) than the market, whereas stocks with beta coefficients less than 1 are less risky (less volatile) than the overall market (Sharpe and Alexander, 1990). A random sample of 15 high-technology stocks was selected at the end of 1990, and the mean and standard deviation of the beta coefficients were calculated:
x = 1.23

s = 0.37

a. b.

Set up the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses to test that average hightechnology stock is riskier than the market as a whole. Establish the appropriate test statistic and rejection region for the test. Use = 0.10.

c. d. e. 8.

What assumptions are necessary to assure the validity of the test? Calculate the test statistic and state your conclusion. What is the approximate p-value (or significance level) associated with this test? Interpret it.

In any bottling process, a manufacturer will lose money if the bottles contain either more or less than is claimed on the label. Accordingly, bottlers pay close attention to the amount of their product being dispensed by bottle-filling machines. Suppose a quality manager for a catsup company is interested in testing whether the mean number of ounces of catsup per family-size bottle differs from the labeled amount of 20 ounces. The manager samples nine bottles, measures the weight of their contents, and finds that x =19.7 ounces and s = 0.3 ounce. a. Does the sample evidence indicate that the catsup dispensing machine needs adjustment? Test at = 0.05. b. What is the p-value for the hypothesis test you conducted in part a? c. What assumptions are necessary so that the procedure used in part a is valid? d. Find a 90% confidence interval for the mean number of ounces of catsup being dispensed A cigarette manufacturer advertises that its new low-tar cigarette contains on average no more than 4 milligrams of tar. You have been asked to test the claim using the following sample information: n = 25, x = 4.16 milligrams, s = 0.30 milligrams. Does the sample information disagree with the manufacturers claim? Test using = 0.05. List any assumptions you make. A major car manufacturer wants to test a new engine to determine whether it meets new air pollution standards. The mean emission, , of all engines of this type must be less than 20 parts per million of carbon. Ten engines are manufactured for testing purposes, and the mean and standard deviation of the emissions for this sample of engines are determined to be
x =17.1 parts per million

9.

10.

s = 3.0 parts per million

Do the data supply sufficient evidence to allow the manufacturer to conclude that this type of engines meets the pollution standard? Assume that the manufacturer is willing to risk a Type 1 error with probability equal to = 0.01. 11. A random sample of 50 consumers taste-tested a new snack food. Their responses were coded (0 = do not like, 1 = like, 2 = indifferent) and listed as follows :
1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 2 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1

a.

Test H0: = 0.5 against H1: > 0.5, where is the proportion of customers who do not like the snack food. Use = 0.10.

b. 12.

Report the observed significance level of your test.

Un producteur de jus dorange affirme que 52% des consommateurs rguliers de jus dorange prfrent son produit. Pour tester cette affirmation, un concurrent recueille un chantillon reprsentatif de 200 consommateurs rguliers de jus dorange et constate quil ny en a que 95 qui dclarent prfrer la marque du producteur. a) b) Tester laffirmation du producteur au risque = 0.05. Calculer le niveau de signification du test.

13.

Selon le responsable de la communication de General Mills, les bons de rduction de la socit ont pour objectif de conduire les consommateurs acheter ses produits et ses bons de remboursement (offre de remboursement en argent en change de preuve dachats rpts) ont pour objectif dencourager les consommateurs poursuivre leur achat de ses produits. Dans une enqute nationale organise par Nielsen en 1990, 57% des personnes interroges ont indiqu quelles utilisaient des bons de rduction pour leurs achat dpicerie. Dans une enqute de 1998, la socit Nielsen a constat que 66% des personnes sondes dclaraient utiliser ces bons de rduction. Supposons que lenqute de 1998 ait t conduite sur un chantillon alatoire de 100 consommateurs, parmi lesquels 66 indiquaient utiliser des bons de rduction. a) Peut-on considrer que lchantillon de 1998 fournit des preuves suffisantes que le pourcentage de consommateurs utilisant des bons de rduction est suprieur 57% ? Utiliser un risque = 0.01. b) Calculer le niveau de signification du test.

14.

Depuis six mois, le grand hebdomadaire DL-Hebdo est vendu sous sa nouvelle formule. La direction marketing dsire valuer limpact de ce changement sur la catgorie cadre de son lectorat. Pour cela, une enqute auprs de 500 cadres a montr que 75 dentre eux sont des lecteurs rguliers de lhebdomadaire. Question : Sachant que la proportion de cadres lisant DL-Hebdo ancienne formule tait de 12%, peut-on affirmer que la pntration de lhebdomadaire dans le segment cadre a augment ? (Prendre un risque = 0.05).

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La socit SOGEC

Une socit est spcialise dans le crdit la consommation. En 1993, le montant des crdits accords ses 60 000 clients tait de 24 120 000 F. La socit souhaite dterminer la provision pour crances douteuses. A. Le chef comptable fait deux hypothses : La proportion des crances douteuses dans la population des 60 000 crances vaut 0.05. La valeur moyenne des crances douteuses dans cette population est gale la valeur moyenne de toutes les crances. Calculer la provision pour crances douteuses sous ces deux hypothses.

B.

Un sondage est organis afin de valider les hypothses du chef comptable. On tire au hasard 50 crances parmi les 60 000 et on observe 8 crances douteuses dans l'chantillon. 1) Estimer la proportion des crances douteuses, partir des donnes de cet chantillon. 2) Calculer un intervalle de confiance de au niveau 0.95. 3) La prcision de ce sondage apparaissant comme insuffisante, on dcide d'augmenter la taille de l'chantillon. Calculer la taille minimum n de l'chantillon permettant d'obtenir un intervalle de confiance de au niveau 0.95 ayant une largeur au plus gale 0.08. Utiliser dans la formule permettant d'obtenir le rsultat la proportion de crances douteuses estime dans ce premier sondage et le fractile exact de la loi normale rduite.

C. On tire au hasard dans la population des 60 000 crances m nouvelles crances de telle sorte que 50 + m = n, valeur trouve la question B 3). On observe 43 crances douteuses parmi ces n crances. Ces 43 crances douteuses, ont une moyenne de 408 F et un cart-type de 93 F. En utilisant les rsultats sur l'chantillon de n crances, rpondre aux questions suivantes. 1) Tester l'hypothse du chef comptable concernant la proportion de crances douteuses dans la population des 60 000 crances, au risque = 0.05. 2) Construire un intervalle de confiance de au niveau 0.95. 3) Tester l'hypothse du chef comptable concernant la valeur moyenne de lensemble de toutes les crances douteuses au niveau de la population, au risque = 0.05. 4) En utilisant l'estimation de et la conclusion de la question (C.3), estimer la valeur totale des crances douteuses. 5) En utilisant l'intervalle de confiance de de la question (C.2) et la conclusion de la question (C.3), construire un intervalle de confiance 95% de la valeur totale des crances douteuses. Prciser les applications pratiques de ce rsultat au niveau de la provision pour crances douteuses. 16. A pupillometer is a device used to observe changes in an individuals pupil dilatations as he or she is exposed to different visual stimuli. Since there is a direct correlation between the amount an individuals pupil dilates and his or her interest in the stimuli, marketing organizations sometimes use pupillometers to help them evaluate consumer interest in new products alternative package designs and other factors. The Design and Market Research Laboratories of the Container Corporation of America used a pupillometer to evaluate consumer reaction to different silverware patterns for one of its clients (McGuire, 1973). Suppose 15 consumers were chosen at random, and each was shown two different silverware patterns. The pupillometer readings for each consumer are shown in the table (in millimeters).
Consumer Pattern 1 1 1.00 2 0.97 3 1.45 4 1.21 5 0.77 6 1.32 7 1.81 Pattern 2 Consumer Pattern 1 0.80 9 0.98 0.66 10 1.46 1.22 11 1.85 1.00 12 0.33 0.81 13 1.77 1.11 14 0.85 1.30 15 0.15 Pattern 2 0.91 1.10 1.60 0.21 1.50 0.65 0.05

0.91

0.32

a. b. c. d.

Use a 90% confidence interval to estimate the difference in the mean amount of pupil dilatation per consumer for silverware patterns 1 and 2. Give a practical interpretation of the interval. Does the confidence interval in part a support the inference that the mean dilatation for pattern 1 exceed that for pattern 2 by more than 0.1 millimeter? Conduct a test of hypothesis to determine whether the data indicate that the mean dilatation for pattern 1 exceeds that for pattern 2 by more than 0.1 millimeter. Use = 0.05.

III. 17.

ANALYSE DE LA VARIANCE A UN FACTEUR Suppose the USGA wants to compare the mean distances associated with four different brands of golf balls when struck with a driver. A completely randomized design is employed, with Iron Byron, the UGSAs robotic golfer, using a driver to hit a random sample of 10 balls of each brand in a random sequence. The distance is recorded for each hit, and the results are shown in the table, organized by brand.
Brand A 251.2 245.1 248.0 251.1 260.5 250.0 253.9 244.6 254.6 248.8 250.8 4.74 Brand B 263.2 262.9 265.0 254.5 264.3 257.0 262.8 264.4 260.6 255.9 261.1 3.87 Brand C 269.7 263.2 277.5 267.4 270.5 265.5 270.7 272.9 275.6 266.5 270.0 4.50 Brand D 251.6 248.6 249.4 242.0 246.5 251.3 261.8 249.0 247.1 245.9 249.3 5.20

Sample means Sample standard deviation

a.
b. c.

d.

Plot the data : Multiple Box-Plot and multiple 95% confidence intervals for the mean distances. Set up the test to compare the mean distances for the four brands. Use = 0.10. Use Scheff multiple comparisons procedure to compare all pairs of means, with = 0.05 as the overall level of significance. Using a 95% confidence interval, estimate the mean distance traveled for balls manufactured by the brand with the highest rank.

SPSS OUTPUT
Descriptives DISTANCE MARQUE B C D 10 10 10 261.0600 269.9500 249.3200 3.8661 1.2226 258.2943 263.8257 254.50 265.00 4.5009 1.4233 266.7302 273.1698 263.20 277.50 5.2032 1.6454 245.5979 253.0421 242.00 261.80

A N Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error 95% Confidence Interval for Mean Minimum Maximum 10 250.7800 4.7352 1.4974 Lower Bound Upper Bound 247.3927 254.1673 244.60 260.50

Total 40 257.7775 9.5497 1.5099 254.7234 260.8316 242.00 277.50

Graphique de dispersion de la distance par marque

280

270

37

260

250

240

DISTANCE

230
N= 10 10 10 10

MARQUE

Intervalles de confiance 95% des distances moyennes par marque

280

270

260

250

95% CI DISTANCE

240
N= 10 10 10 10

MARQUE

ANOVA Sum of Squares DISTANCE Between Groups Within Groups Total 2794.389 762.301 3556.690 df 3 36 39 Mean Square 931.463 21.175 F 43.989 Sig. .000

DISTANCE Scheffe
a

MARQUE D A B C Sig.

N 10 10 10 10

Subset for alpha = .05 1 2 3 249.3200 250.7800 261.0600 269.9500 .917 1.000 1.000

Means for groups in homogeneous subsets are displayed. a. Uses Harmonic Mean Sample Size = 10.000

18.

An accounting firm that specializes in auditing the financial records of large corporations is interested in evaluating the appropriateness of the fees it charges for its services. As part of its evaluation, it wants to compare the costs it incurs in auditing corporations of different sizes. The accounting firm decided to measure the size of its client corporations in terms of their yearly sales. Accordingly, its population of client corporations was divided into three subpopulations: A: Those with sales over $250 million B: Those with sales between $100 million and $250 million C: Those with sales under $100 million The firm chose random samples of 10 corporations from each of the subpopulations and determined the costs (in thousands of dollars), given in the next table, from its records. a. Construct a multiple Box-and-Whiskers plot for the sample data and plot the 90% confidence intervals for the three subpopulation means. b. Conduct a test to determine whether the three classes of firms have different mean costs incurred in audits. Use = 0.05. c. What is the observed significance level for the test in part b? Interpret it. d. What assumptions must be met in order to ensure the validity of the inferences you made in parts b and c? e. Use Scheff multiple comparisons procedure to compare all pairs of means, with = 0.10 as the overall level of significance.
A 250 150 275 100 475 600 150 800 325 230 335.5 224.0 B 100 150 75 200 55 80 110 160 132 233 129.5 57.0 C 80 125 20 186 52 92 88 141 76 200 106.0 57.0

Sample means Sample standard deviation

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Avalon Cosmetics, Inc.

Extrait de L.H. Peters & J.B. Gray, Business Cases in Statistical Decision Making Prentice Hall, 1994 Ladies and gentleman, I think weve got a problem that requires some clear thinking and sound decisions, if were going to be in business two years from now. Thats how Carol Sanderson began the emergency meeting she called on her planning committee. Ms. Sanderson is the founder and CEO of Avalon Cosmetics, a regional, full-line cosmetics company headquartered in Chicago. Avalon Cosmetics was founded almost two decades ago as a copy-cat version of Avon and Mary Kay, two highly successful door-to-door cosmetics companies. Sales associates, called beauty consultants , knock on doors in their territories and offer housewives free make-overs in hopes of selling cosmetics and grooming supplies. The Avalon work force is made up of women who act as independent contractors to the company. They typically are married and have one or more school-age children. If they are aggressive, they can make a good living with Avalon. As importantly, because they have control over their work schedules, they can fit their work in with their family and social obligations. Avalon has a very high profit margin, in part because it has a relatively low overhead burden. Beauty consultants must buy their sample kits and inventory, process and deliver all merchandise, and service customer complaints all in exchange for a percentage of their sales. Thus, Avalon pays relatively few fixed costs. Avalon does, however, have a high opportunity cost if a territory does not produce expected revenues. Nancy Mackay, Avalons Director of Marketing, has clarified repeatedly that women will spend money on cosmetics. As she often notes, If the customers dont spend money on our product, they will spend it on a competitors product! It is this clear understanding of the cosmetics market that has Carol Sanderson so concerned. She has seen her companys revenues fall nearly five percent in each of the past two years, and so far, this year looks worse than last! Carol has assembled the planning committee, comprised of the directors of Marketing, Product Development and Human Resources, to focus on this problem and help turn the business around. She has asked them to share their views of the problem and make suggestions for what needs to be done next. Bill Lamb, Director of Product Development, said hes confused about what to do. He surveyed a sample of customers about their satisfaction with their purchases and said he saw no evidence of a problem. As Bill put it, Were doing our job our customers love our products. They say they are repeat customers. They say our prices are right. They say they recommend our product to their friends. They love the personal attention they get from our beauty consultants. I just dont understand why we are getting deeper and deeper in trouble with such a positive and loyal customer base! Nancy Mackay agreed. Weve asked a number of consumer panels about what new products theyd like to see and what modifications are needed in our existing product line. The feedback I get is consistent were making what they want to buy. Perhaps we should reconsider our pricing structure, or come up with discounts, or maybe a game a gimmick to recapture attention in the market place. We might even need to consider advertising. I know all these suggestions cost money, real money, but if our product line is complete and our products are good, then it seems to me that the only thing to do is to stir up some interest in our products.

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Carol Sanderson liked the idea of an ad campaign, although she dreaded the thought of the costs that would be involved. To reach their target customers base, housewives, they would probably have to advertise on day-time television, during game programs and soap operas. The costs of advertising at that time and for those TV programs, however, might be prohibitive. Carol continued the discussion by asking, How else can we reach our customers? We know a lot about our customer base theyre women between the ages of 27 and 44, they stay at home to raise their kids, and they love the attention provided by our beauty consultants. Cathy Eller, Director of Human Resources, followed up on Carol Sandersons last comment. Cathy began her comments by asking about how long ago the customer profile was developed. She then said, The reason I ask is, well, Ive been reading a lot lately about the changing demographics of the working world. One magazine article I read pointed out that more and more women are entering the work force. Lets assume this is true maybe our problem is not the product line, or our pricing, or our advertising. Maybe, our sales are going down because our customer is no longer at home to answer the door when our beauty consultants knock on it! Maybe, just maybe, our customers are among the women who are finding their way into the work force. This was clearly a very provocative statement. Nobody had considered this possibility. If Cathys idea were valid, then it would require some serious thought about what to do. After all, Avalon Cosmetics became successful in part because they were good at developing excellent product at attractive prices and serving their customers with a personal touch. If the problem were not one of product, pricing, or sales approach, they would have to create a novel solution that went beyond the assembled expertise of the planning committee. Carol Sanderson asked, How do we find out if youre right about this, Cathy? Do we have access to any information that would be useful? Cathy Eller thought for a moment and, with a big smile on a face, announced, I think we can do it from the information our beauty consultants keep on each of their clients. If youll remember, beauty consultants are asked to keep information about each client who makes a purchase. They are supposed to record the type of product purchased and the total purchase price of each transaction. We even asked them to record the number of time they called on each customer at home before making a sale and the time of day this customer contact was made. More importantly, we asked them three years ago to get more information about each customer. We asked them for their clients ages and the number of children each has. I think we even asked them to include information about whether the client had a job outside the home! Great, said Carol Sanderson. When can we get a summary of that information? Cathy responded, Ill have my staff pull those numbers together and summarize them by our next meeting. Ill even ask them to speculate on what these results might mean for our business. Ive got some really bright people working for me who are good at figuring out what needs to be done to solve problems. Who knows, maybe we can turn our problem into an opportunity. Carol Sanderson agreed that Cathys staff should pull together the numbers, analyze them and interpret the results, and make suggestions about their meaning for the

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company. She ended the meeting by expressing her hope that Cathys efforts would lead to somewhere productive. Cathy Eller went to her customer data base and drew three random samples of 100 customers each who purchased Avalon products during the summers of 1990, 1991 and 1992. She had her staff contact the beauty consultants to obtain relevant information on each of their customers. For each customer, information was collected on: (1) the date of purchase, (2) the amount of purchase, (3) the number of times the beauty consultant visited a customers home before making contact with the customer, (4) the time of day that the initial contact was made, (5) the clients age, (6) the number of minor children at home, and (7) whether or not the customer was employed outside the home. These data were coded, and a computer file was created in preparation for data analysis.

Assignment
As a member of Cathy Ellers staff, you have been assigned the task of analyzing and interpreting the data that Cathy Eller created. Youll find these data in the AVALON.SAV file (disponible partir du site Web Siad.hec.fr, rubrique Statistique, cours Statistique). A description of this data set is given in the Data Description section. Your analyses should be aimed at comparing the description of customers over the past three years. Once you have completed your statistical analyses and have interpreted those findings, you are to make suggestions to Cathy Eller about the business directions suggested by the data. You will need to be creative in deciding what these data might mean about the continued success of Avalon Cosmetics. Use important details from your analysis to support your recommendations.

Data Description
The AVALON.SAV file contains information on 300 Avalon Cosmetics customers from the summers of 1990, 1991 and 1992. Data are grouped by year.
Purchase price 3.53 10.99 Number of Contacts 1 3 Time of Day 1 3 Number of Children 2 0

Year 90 90

Month 6 6

Day 15 17

Employed 0 1

Age 35 36

91 91

6 6

8 4

8.57 12.23

2 2

1 1

0 0

36 39

4 0

92 92

6 6

10 20

19.25 14.22

1 3

1 3

0 1

41 39

2 0

The variables are defined as follows: Year: Month: Year in which the purchase was made Month in which the purchase was made

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Day: Purchase Price: Number of contacts: Time of Day: Employed: Age: Number of Children:

Date on which the purchase was made Retail price on merchandise purchased Number of times the sales associate visited the home before making contact with the customer Time of day when initial contact was made (1 = morning, 2 = afternoon, 3 = evening) 1, if customer is employed outside the home, 0, otherwise The customers age in years The number of minor children at home

Projet AVALON
Il sagit dtudier lvolution des variables descriptives des clientes au cours des annes. Pour les variables numriques Purchase price, Number of Contacts, Age , Number of Children, calculer les moyennes annuelles et raliser une analyse de la variance de chacune de ces variables sur le facteur Year. Pour les deux variables qualitatives Time of Day et Employed, construire le tableau croisant chacune de ces variables avec les annes et raliser le test du khi-deux dindpendance.

Case Questions
1. 2. 3. 4. Do these findings suggest that Carol Sandersons description of the typical customer is correct? Explain. Based on your analysis, write your description of the typical customer in 1992. Would Nancy Mackays suggestion of advertising during daytime TV shows be a costeffective solution to Avalons business problems? Explain why or why not. Based on your description of the typical customer in 1992, make one or more recommendations for refocusing how Avalon Cosmetics conducts its business to insure its success into the near future.

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