Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
22 May 2013
London: 16 High Holborn, London WC21V 6BX T: +44 20 3287 2690 F: +44 20 8616 7499 e-mail: msonenshine@symfoniecapital.com Prague: Evropska 136, 16000 Praha 6 T: +420 724 260 952 F: +420 222 951 429
This publication has been prepared by Symfonie Capital (Symfonie) for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not untrue or misleading, but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness. This document is confidential and proprietary to Symfonie. Transmission or publication of this document without the express prior consent of Symfonie is strictly prohibited. Symfonie Capital reserves all legal rights in connection with the publication of this document. Symfonie Capital 2013.
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
Lenders /Investors
Lenders earn higher rates of interest than they could earn on bank deposits. Lenders can diversify across many borrowers.
Borrowers
Borrowers save money by borrowing at rates less than what they would pay to banks and finance companies.
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
Europe
Country Name of website Zopa FundingCircle RateSetter Smava Auxmoney Kokos Isepankur Lubbus Comunitae Babyloan Friendsclear ZltyMelon
Asia
Country Name of website CreditEase Ppdai Aqush Maneo Zopa DhanaX
More than 35 providers around the world, more than $3bn in loans annually, growing at least 50% per year.
Source: Symfonie research
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 4
Defaultrates
Source: Symfonie estimates, based on data provided by P2P marketplace providers.
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
ROI
Loan Selection
Asset class selection Risk/return analysis Default rate modeling
MONITORING
On-going review of loan performance and service provider activities. Working with service providers to restructuring loans if necessary.
INVESTMENT EXECUTION
CIO approves loan purchase Trade Executed
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
Key Risks
Deterioration of Credit Quality During recessions default rates are likely to increase. We try to manage this risk by diversifying the portfolio among many countries, many borrowers, varying the range of credit profiles in the portfolio and by increasing weighting in relatively safer, more liquid assets. Poor Credit Scoring Models A service provider that errs with the credit scoring model risks mis-classifying clients by systematically over estimating or under estimating the probability of default. We manage this risk in the due diligence and monitoring processes, where we evaluate each providers credit scoring model. We also track and monitor each providers overall portfolio statistics so we can observe changes over time. Poor Service Provider Quality The Peer to Peer and Microfinance lending processes hinge on the quality of the service provider. We manage this risk through due diligence on providers and by diversifying among many providers Reinvestment Risk Peer to peer lending is becoming a more attractive investment vehicle. At times the service providers may have a queue of investors waiting to put cash to work. We manage this risk by diversifying among websites and by having the flexibility to invest in other fixed income assets.
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
Consumer credit registries operate in most countries around the world. Banks and credit providers transmit and receive credit data regularly. Standard practice among P2P marketplace providers is to present each borrowers credit report detail and credit score. The providers offer not only data from a nationally recognised agency, but also their own credit score calculation.
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
10
Country
US US UK UK UK UK France Estonia Slovakia Spain Germany
Website
Prosper.com Lendingclub.com Zopa.co.uk Ratesetter.com Fundingcircle.com Thincats.com PretdUnion.fr isepankur.ee zltymelon.sk Comunitae.com auxmoney.de
TypeofLoans
Consumer Consumer Consumer Consumer Business Business Consumer Consumer Consumer Consumer Consumer
AnnualLoan Volume
$200mn $760mn GBP100mn GBP50mn GBP60mn GBP25mn EUR35mn EUR2mn EUR2mn EUR2mn EUR25mn
LoanGrades
AE+ AG AB AB AC AC AB AG AD AC AC
Tenors (Yrs)
1,3,5 3,5 3,5 05 3,5 05 2,5 05 1,2,3 1,2,4 1,2,3,4,5
Rates Available
6%30% 6%25% 5%8% 3%6% 4%10% 8%11% 4% 6% 15%30% 5%28% 8% 12% 6%14%
Source: The websites and Symfonie. The list is illustrative only and is not intended to be a complete or authoritative listing of all P2P marketplace providers. Terms, conditions and actual investment results may differ from those presented here. The Funds actual investments might not include all the above providers and might also include others that are not presented here.
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 11
Lending Club
Source: Lendingclub.com and Prosper.com 2012 Annual Report data. Default Probabilities calculated by US Government Consumer Finance Bureau, 2012 Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
12
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
13
Average % Utilisation
Loan Grade
Prosper Lending Club
Source: LendingClub, Prosper, Annual Reports 2012. Based on aggregated loans issued since 2008/2009 to present.
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
16
Country
US US UK UK UK UK France Estonia Germany
Website
Prosper.com Lendingclub.com Zopa.co.uk Ratesetter.com Fundingcircle.com Thincats.com PretdUnion.fr isepankur.ee auxmoney.de
A
1.1% 0.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.7% 1.5% 0.4% 3.3% 1.0%
B
1.8% 1.7% 2.0% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 6.0% 1.5%
C
2.6% 2.6%
D
3.1% 3.1%
E
7.2% 3.6%
F
12.2% 4.8%
G
8.2% 7.2%
2.3%
4.8% 2.8%
5.5% 2.9%
8.2% 3.8%
16.4% 3.4%
SELLS
Credit Deterioration where we believe credit quality in particular class of borrowers is likely to deteriorate we look for exit opportunities in the secondary market. Low return potential we avoid the thin margin, premium loan segment, where risks of underestimated default rates are high. Relative Value we compare risk/reward in P2P loans versus other credit opportunities. Where P2P loans dont reflect good value, we focus on classical credit securities.
Source: Prosper.com and Lendingclub.com Annual Reports 2012. Future performance may differ from past performance.
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
19
SELLS
Credit Deterioration where we believe credit quality is likely to deteriorate we sell. Low return potential where we believe a bond no longer offers adequate return we sell. Capital loss potential - when we decide there are significant downside risks we sell. Relative Value when we decide a bond represents poor value relative to other opportunities we sell.
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
20
1.30
1.20 Base = 1
1.10
Hedged WE XOVER
1.00
0.90
Symfonie HEDGED WE HY
0.80
Source: Symfonie. Chart above reflects the performance of the credit strategy implemented within the MT Thaler New Europe Fund during the time Symfonie principal Michael Sonenshine was responsible for the Funds investments in credit instruments.
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC 21
ar -0 M 5 ay -0 5 Ju l-0 5 Se p05 N ov -0 5 Ja n06 M ar -0 M 6 ay -0 6 Ju l-0 6 Se p06 N ov -0 6 Ja n07 M ar -0 M 7 ay -0 7 Ju l-0 7 Se p07 N ov -0 7 Ja n08 M ar -0 M 8 ay -0 8 Ju l-0 8
Ja n-
05
Symfonie Global HY
240 225 210 195 180 165 150 135 120 105 90
31 -O c 31 t-0 8 -D e 28 c-0 -F 8 eb 30 - 09 -A pr 30 -0 9 -J u 31 n-09 -A ug 31 -0 9 -O c 31 t-0 9 -D e 28 c-0 -F 9 eb 30 - 10 -A pr 30 -1 0 -J u 31 n-10 -A ug 31 -1 0 -O c 31 t-1 0 -D e 28 c-1 -F 0 eb 30 - 11 -A pr 30 -1 1 -J u 31 n-11 -A ug 31 -1 1 -O c 31 t-1 1 -D ec -1 29 -F 1 eb 30 - 12 -A pr 30 -1 2 -J u 31 n-12 -A ug 31 -1 2 -O c 31 t-1 2 -D ec -1 2
ML WE HY
SYMFONIE
EU XOVER
EMCI
Source: Symfonie. Chart above reflects the performance of the Ceska Sporitelna High Yield Fund during the time Symfonie principal Miichael Sonenshine was responsible as investment advisor to the Fund.
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
22
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
23
Investment Structure
Structure and Investment Portfolio
Peer to Peer loans Corporate & Government Bonds Maturities up to 5 years for all investments in the 2018 Class Diversified across countries, borrowers, maturities P2P loans pay interest & principal monthly Sub-portfolios in segregated accounts are offered
Fund Terms
US Limited Partnership, foreign investors allowed Foreign investors not subject to US tax, no tax reporting required Minimum investment period 36 months Investor choice of reinvestment or distribution of interest/principal Hedged into investors chosen currency Professionally managed and externally supervised Monthly updates Annual Audit Class 2016 management fee 1.25% plus 10% over and above annual 8% hurdle Class 2018 management fee 1.5%, plus 10% over and above annual 8% hurdle
24
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
25
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
26
Willem Naves
Holland
More than 25 years of experience in investment and corporate banking Twenty years experience in credit trading management positions in the ING Group - Amsterdam, London, Sao Paolo Global co-Head of Fixed Income trading at ING Head of EMEA Equity and Fixed Income sales and trading product Banking advisory projects focusing on credit and risk management in Macedonia, Poland, El Salvador and Indonesia Erasmus University degree in Law
Pavel Kohout
Czech Republic
Fifteen years experience in economic analysis and investment management Director of Strategy at Partners Advisors, a leading Czech financial advisory firm Author of several books on economics Member of Czech National Economics Advisory Board Member, Expert Panel of Advisors to Czech Ministry of Finance
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
27
Charles Klein
China
Twenty years experience in corporate finance and treasury management Management positions in General Motors with responsibility for currency portfolios, asset acquisition and disposition and financial reporting systems Resident in China, fluent in German and Russian MBA, Wharton School of Management
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
28
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared by Symfonie Capital Investment Management LLC (Symfonie Capital) for persons reasonably believed by Symfonie Capital to be persons of the categories to whom Symfonie Capital are permitted to communicate financial promotions. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to subscribe or purchase any investment. Symfonie Capital believes that the information it provides is accurate as at the date of publication, but no warranty of its accuracy or completeness is given and no liability in respect of errors or omissions is accepted by Symfonie Capital or any partner or employee of Symfonie Capital. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This presentation is for illustration and discussion purposes only and is not intended to be, neither should it be construed or used as, financial, legal, tax or investment advice nor an offer to sell, nor a solicitation of any offer to buy, an interest in any of the funds managed by Symfonie Capital (the Funds). None of the Funds have shares registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended. None of the Funds will be registered under the U.S. Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended. Any offer or solicitation of an investment in any of the Funds may be made only by delivery of a respective funds Confidential Offering Memorandum to qualified prospective investors. This presentation is as of the date indicated, is not complete, and does not contain certain material information about the Funds, including important disclosures and risk factors associated with an investment in any of the Funds. Any indications of interest from prospective investors in response to this material involves no obligation or commitment of any kind. Subscriptions can be made only on the basis of a Confidential Offering Memorandum to qualified investors. The investment objectives and methods summarized in this document represent our current focus and intentions. There is no assurance that Symfonie Capital will achieve its objectives or that its investment process or risk management will be successful. Investors may lose money. No representation is made that any of the Funds will or are likely to achieve their respective objectives or that any investor will or is likely to achieve results comparable to any that may be shown or will make any profit at all or will be able to avoid incurring substantial losses. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This presentation does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances of any specific person who may receive it. Before making any investment, you should thoroughly review the particular funds Confidential Offering Memorandum with your financial and tax advisor to determine whether an investment in the fund is suitable for you in light of your financial situation. This presentation is subject to revision and updating. Certain information has been provided by third-party sources and, although believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. This presentation is confidential, is intended only for the person to whom it has been delivered and under no circumstance may a copy be shown, copied, transmitted, or otherwise given to any person other than the authorized recipient. Symfonie Capital is solely responsible for the content herein.
Private and conditional. Unauthorised distribution strictly prohibited. 2013 Symfonie Capital LLC
29