Commodities & Currencies

Weekly Tracker

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | May 20, 2013

Contents
Returns Non Agri Commodities Currencies Agri Commodities Non-Agri Commodities Gold Silver Copper Crude Oil Currencies DX, Euro, INR Agri Commodities Chana Black Pepper Turmeric Jeera Soybean Refine Soy Oil & CPO Sugar Kapas

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | May 20, 2013

Currencies Weekly Performance

2.0
1.6

1.5 1.0
0.5 0.0 (0.5) (1.0)

1.4

0.1

(1.0) (1.5)

(1.1)

(1.2)

(1.3)

(1.4)

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | May 20, 2013

Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance

3.9

3.0
1.0 (1.0) 0.8 (0.0)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(3.0)
(5.0) (7.0)

(1.4) (4.0)

(6.1)

(6.7)

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | May 20, 2013

*Weekly Performance for June contract, CPO, Cotton & Mentha Oil May Contract

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | May 20, 2013

Gold Weekly Price Performance

Spot gold prices declined around 6.1 percent in the last week. The yellow metal touched a weekly low of $1355.1/oz and closed at $1358.7/oz in last trading session of the week. In the Indian markets, prices declined by 3.6 percent taking cues from spot gold prices and closed at Rs.25884/10 gms on Friday after touching a weekly low of Rs. 25776/10 gms. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, declined by 1.25 percent to 1,038.41 tonnes as on 17th May 2013 from previous level of 1,051.65 tonnes as on 10th May 2013. Strength in DX coupled with decline in Inflation in the major economies of the world. Further, rise in stock markets led to the decline in demand for safe heaven which kept prices under pressure.
MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance
31,500 30,500 29,500 28,500 27,500 26,500 25,500 1,800 1,750 1,700 1,650 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,450 1,400 1,350

ETF Performance

Factors that influenced downside in gold prices

MCX- Near Month Gold Futures - Rs/10 gms

Comex Gold Futures - $/oz

Additionally, SPDR gold trust holding continued to decline, which acted as a negative factor. Apart from that weak economic data from Euro zone added downside pressure on the prices.
In the coming week we expect gold prices to trade on the negative note as the rise in stock markets may reduce the demand for safe haven. Further SPDR gold trust holding continued to decline which may add downside pressure. Additionally, strength in DX may act as a negative factor. However, sharp downside will be cushioned as a result of expectations of favorable economic data from Euro Zone. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee may cushion sharp downside in the prices on MCX. Spot Gold : Support 1,327/1,295 Resistance 1,387/1,420. (CMP: $1343.70) Sell MCX Gold June between 26,150-26,200, SL-26,655, Target -25,050. (CMP: Rs 25,414)

Spot Gold Vs US Dollar Index

1,700
1,650 1,600 1,550 82.0 1,500 1,450 1,400 1,350 81.0 80.0 79.0

85.0
84.0 83.0

Outlook

Weekly Technical Levels

Spot Gold -$/oz

US Dollar Index

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | May 20, 2013

Silver
Weekly Price Performance
Spot silver fell by 6.7 percent in the last week. The white metal prices touched a low of $22.09/oz in the last week and closed at $22.23/oz in last trade of the week. On the domestic front, prices decreased by 5.0 percent taking cues from spot silver prices and closed at Rs.42814/kg on Friday after touching a low of Rs.42281/kg in the last week. Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, declined by 1.79 percent to 10,252.69 tonnes as on 17th May 2013 from previous level of 10,440.4 tonnes as on 10th May 2013. Decline in spot gold prices, downside in the base metal packs along with strength in DX. Further, unfavourable economic data from euro zone and china coupled with fall in US housing starts and Philly fed manufacturing index added downside pressure on the prices. However, upbeat global market sentiments along with rise in US consumer sentiments cushioned sharp downside in the prices. In the coming week we expect spot silver prices to decline taking cues from fall in spot gold prices coupled with downside in the base metal packs. Further, strength in DX may add downside pressure. However, sharp downside will be cushioned as a result of expectations of favorable economic data from Euro Zone. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee may cushion sharp fall in the prices on MCX. Spot Silver: Support 21.60/20.95 Resistance 22.72/23.40. (CMP:$21.30) Sell MCX Silver July between 43,400-43,500, SL-43,951, Target 41,700/41,280. (CMP: Rs.40,801)
MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance
60,000 58,000 32

56,000
54,000 52,000 50,000 48,000 46,000 44,000

30
28 26 24

ETF Performance

42,000

22

Factors that influenced downside in silver prices

MCX- Near Month Silver Futures - Rs/ kg Comex Silver Futures - $/oz

Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index

32.0 30.0 83.0 28.0 82.0 85.0 84.0

Outlook

26.0
24.0

81.0 80.0

22.0

79.0

Weekly Technical Levels

Spot Silver -$/oz US Dollar Index

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | May 20, 2013

Copper

Weekly Price Performance

Copper prices declined by 1.1 percent in the previous week. The red metal touched a weekly low of $7101/tonne and closed at $7310/tonne in the last trading session of the week. On the domestic front, prices ended on negative note by 0.5 percent and closed at Rs. 406/kg on Friday after touching a low of Rs. 392.6/kg in the last week. Depreciation in the Indian rupee prevented sharp downside in the prices. LME copper inventories increased by 4.25 percent in the last week and stood at 629,950 tonnes as on 17th May, 2013 as against 604,250 tonnes as on 10th May, 2013. Copper inventories in the warehouse monitored by the Shanghai fell by 2.4 percent and stood at 190,330 tonnes for the week ending on 17th May, 2013. Strength in DX and weak economic data from US, China and Euro Zone increased the worries over demand for copper. Additionally, rise in LME inventories by 4.2 percent acted as negative factor for the prices. However, sharp fall in the prices was cushioned on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with rise in US consumer sentiments. In the coming week we expect base metal price to trade on the negative note on the back of strength in DX coupled with rise in the LME copper inventories. However, sharp downside will be cushioned as a result of expectations of favorable economic data from Euro Zone and US. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee may cushion sharp decline in the prices on MCX. LME Copper: Support 7265/7125 Resistance 7470/7630. (CMP: $7260.75) MCX Copper: Support 402.20/394.60 Resistance 413.50/422.0. (CMP: Rs 401.70)
LME and MCX Copper Price Performance
8,400 8,200 8,000 7,800 7,600 455 445 435 425 415 405 395 385 375 365

Copper Inventories

7,400
7,200 7,000 6,800

LME Copper Future ($/tonne)

MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)

Factors that influenced downside in the copper prices

LME Copper v/s LME Inventory

8,400 618,000

8,200
8,000 7,800 7,600 7,400

568,000
518,000 468,000 418,000 368,000 318,000

Outlook

7,200 7,000 6,800

Weekly Technical Levels

Copper LME Inventory (tonnes)

LME Copper Future ($/tonne)

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | May 20, 2013

Crude Oil
Weekly Price Performance
On a weekly basis, Nymex crude oil prices declined marginally by 0.01 percent. On the domestic bourses, prices increased by 2.0 percent on account of depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.5,297/bbl on Friday after touching a high of Rs.5308/bbl in the last week. As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories declined unexpectedly by 0.6 million barrels to 394.90 million barrels for the week ending on 10th May 2013. Gasoline stocks increased by 2.6 million barrels to 217.70 million barrels and whereas distillate stockpiles rose by 2.3 million barrels to 119.90 million barrels for the last week. Expectations that OPEC production will increase in the current year coupled with strength in the DX. Further, unfavorable economic data from the Euro Zone and US also exerted downside pressure on the crude oil prices. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned as a result of decline in US crude oil inventories along with upbeat global market sentiments. For the coming week, we expect crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of unrest in the Syria which led to expectations of supply concerns from the region. Additionally, decline in US crude oil inventories coupled with favorable economic data from US in last week will support an upside in the prices. Further, expectations of positive economic data from US and Euro Zone will act as a positive factor for the oil prices. However, strength in the DX will cap sharp gains in the prices. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will support upside in the prices on the MCX. Nymex Crude Oil: Support: 95.15/93.50 Resistance 97.90/99.45. (CMP:$96.14) Buy MCX Crude June between 5260-5250, SL-5160, Target -5405/5395. (CMP:Rs 5274)
Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance
5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 92.0 98.0 96.0 94.0

US Energy Department Facts and Figures

5,000
4,900 4,800 4,700 90.0 88.0 86.0

Factors that influenced downside in crude oil prices

MCX crude oil (Rs/bbl)

NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl)

Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)

400
395.3 395.5 394.9 388.6

Outlook

395 390 385 380 375 370 365 360

363.1 361.3 360.3 369.1
371.7

388.6 384
381.4

388.9 387.6

385.9 382.7

376.4 377.53 372.2

Weekly Technical Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | May 20, 2013

DX/ INR Weekly Price Performance

US Dollar Index (DX) increased around 1.4 percent in the last week. The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.01 percent on weekly basis. Factors that influenced upside movement in the DX Unfavorable economic data from US and Euro Zone. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. Further, positive US equities markets also prevented sharp upside in the DX. Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee Dollar demand from importers. Additionally, strength in the DX also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of decline in countrys inflation which is at the lowest level since 2009. Further, upbeat global and domestic market sentiments also prevented sharp fall in the currency. FII Inflows For the month of May 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.11,992.60 crores ($2,208.38 million) as on 17th May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.73,029.0 crores ($13,518.70 million) till 17th May 2013. Outlook In the coming week, Indian Rupee is expected to depreciate as a result of dollar demand from gold and oil importers. Additionally, strength in the DX will also add downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned on account of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. Weekly Technical Levels USD/INR MCX May Support 54.70/54.40 Resistance 55.30/55.60. (CMP: 55.065) US Dollar Index: Support 83.70/83.20 Resistance 84.60/85.0. (CMP: 84.0)
US Dollar Index
84.0

83.0
82.0 81.0 80.0 79.0

$/INR - Spot
56.0 55.5 55.0 54.5

54.0
53.5 53.0

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | May 20, 2013

Euro

Weekly Price Performance

The Euro depreciated by 1.2 percent in the last week. The Euro touched a weekly low of 1.2795 and closed at 1.2838 against dollar on Friday.
1.365
1.355 1.345 1.335 1.325 1.315 1.305 1.295 1.285 1.275

Euro/$ - Spot

Factors that influenced downside movement in the Euro

Strength in dollar index. Euro zone economy contracted by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2013 for consecutive 6 quarters added downside pressure. Further, weak economic data from Germany, France and Italy acted as negative factor for the currency. Additionally, European Central Bank (ECB) policy maker said that the bank may consider slashing euro deposits rates to negative if required kept currency under pressure. However, decline in Inflation in Euro zone along with optimistic global market sentiments cushioned sharp depreciation in the euro. Apart from that, Fitch credit rating agency upgraded Greece sovereign rating to B-minus from CCC, with stable outlook which prevented sharp decline in the currency. In the coming week we expect Euro currency to depreciate on the back of strength in DX. However, sharp downside in the currency will be capped on account of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. Further, forecast for favorable economic data from the Euro region will also cushion sharp fall in the currency. EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.2740/1.2650 Resistance 1.2950/1.3050. (CMP: 1.2864)

EURO/INR - Spot
73.0 72.5 72.0
71.5 71.0 70.5 70.0 69.5 69.0

Outlook

Weekly Technical Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | May 20, 2013

Chana

Weekly Price Performance

Chana prices remained firm in the early part of the week on emergence of fresh demand at lower levels. However, increasing arrival pressure at higher levels again exerted downside pressure on the prices towards the week end. Chana spot as well as June futures settled 0.5% & 0.45% lower w-o-w. Peak arrival period in the major growing states have led to a sharp fall in the chana prices in the past four weeks. Thus, stockiest demand emerging at support price levels led to an upside in the prices. Despite of this, higher arrivals will restrict sharp upside in eh prices till the month end. According to the third advance estimates released last week, Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Chana prices tend to follow a seasonality pattern, wherein prices decline during the harvesting period and bottom out when arrivals reach their peak in the month of May. Thus, we expect the current downward trend to continue till the month end. Chana prices may remain under downside pressure on the back of peak arrival period. However, on the downside prices may not sustain below Rs 3200 per qtl mark, the level being a Minimum Support price, below which farmers may not sell their produce. Also stockiest demand may emerge at such low levels and thus we may see a recovery in the Chana prices June onwards. Sell NCDEX CHANA June between 3420-3440, SL -3500, Target - 3330 / 3310

Higher arrivals seen restricting upside in the prices

Chana output estimated at record high- Third Advance Estimates

Seasonal pressure to keep prices under downside pressure

Outlook

Weekly Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | May 20, 2013

Turmeric

Weekly Price Performance

After declining over the previous four weeks, Turmeric Futures witnessed a sharp recovery as the regulator withdrew special margins of 10% on the long side. Prices declined sharply earlier on account of huge carryover stocks as well as weak demand. The spot as well as the futures settled 0.53% and 2.436% lower w-o-w. Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2013 declined by 4% to 66,550 tn. (Source Factiva) NCDEX issued a circular earlier last week that it will modify the tick as well as the lot size in the Turmeric contract. However the exchange later announced that it has kept the circular issued earlier has been kept in abeyance till further notice. Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha). Sowing is reported to be 30-35% lower compared to last year. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50% lower compared to last year and is expected around 45-50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is reported at historical high of 90 lakh bags/ 10.62 lakh tns. Prices may continue to gain as traders expect demand to emerge as the summers start to cool down. Lower output estimates may also support prices. However, huge carry over stocks may continue to exert downside pressure on the prices. Buy NCDEX Turmeric June between 5850-5900, SL -5600, Target - 6270 / 6330.

Weak exports data Modification in Tick size and Lot size

Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season

Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

Outlook

Weekly Strategy

Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | May 20, 2013

Weekly Price Performance

Jeera futures traded on a positive note last week on reports of fresh export enquiries. Also, declining of the pace of arrivals from its peak supported prices. Currently the arrivals are about 10,0000-12,000 bags/day against a peak of 40,000-45,000 bags/day. however, prices declined towards the end of the week on account of profit booking at higher levels. Prices had declined earlier due to higher output estimates. Last 3 years average sowing is 3.189 lk ha. The spot settled 0.76% higher while the June Futures settled 0.65% lower w-o-w. Indias 2013 Jeera output is estimated at 40-45 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), higher than 40 lakh bags in 2012. However, increase in the exports due to supply concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the prices and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside. Jeera exports during Apr-Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, higher by 86%. (Source Factiva) Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They have stopped shipments. Turkey may start offering its Jeera in the coming days. According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tonnes while production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tonnes, lower by 20% and around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets. Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,50/tn (c&f). Jeera is expected to continue to extend last weeks gains on account of demand emerging at lower levels. However, higher output estimates may cap sharp gains. Buy NCDEX Jeera June between 12850-12900, SL -12600, Target - 13270 / 13330.
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.

Jeera

Second consecutive year of higher output

Global supply concerns boost Jeera exports

Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

International Scenario

Outlook

Weekly Levels

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | May 20, 2013

Soybean

Weekly price performance

NCDEX Soybean traded in a range bound manner with upward bias on account of poor supplies in the domestic markets and weak meal export demand. June futures settled 0.14% higher w-o-w. CBOT Soybean July lost 2.6% w-o-w on expectatations favorable weather may boost planting which was lagging behind till the week ended 12th May. Indias soy meal exports for the month of April 2013 were 99.451 tonnes, lower by 68.31 percent from 313,832 tonnes a year ago. As per the 3rd Advance Estimates released by the Ministry of Agriculture, soybean output increased to 14.14 mn tn from 12.24 mn tn in the previous estimates. USDA monthly report forecast ending stocks in 2013-14 to double to 265 mn bushels against 125 mn bushels in 2012-13. Brazil, set to become the worlds largest soybean exporter, may ship a record 7.6 million tons of the oilseed in May after permitting ports to operate 24 hours a day, from a previous 8-hour limit. According to the weekly crop report, only 6% of Soybean has been planted as against 43% last year and five year average of 24%. Soybean prices may remain range bound in the coming week as poor supplies in the domestic markets may offset weak meal exports. Traders will now take cues from the monsoon and sowing progress to derive further price trend. Buy NCDEX Soybean June between 3840-3860, SL -3730, Target - 4025 / 4050

India's soy meal Exports Fall by 68 Percent during FY12-13 SEA

Increase in the output in the 3rd Advance Estimates

Record US soybean crops to end supply squeeze-USDA

South American Soybean Exports Seen at Record High- Oil World

US Soy planting- 6% completed against 43% y-o-y

Outlook

Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | May 20, 2013

Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil

Weekly price performance
Edible oil complex extended the gains of the previous week on account of lower stocks and seasonally lower yield period of Malaysian Palm Oil. However, CPO prices at MCX witnessed profit booking and thus settled marginally lower by 0.29% w-o-w.

Global Scenario
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products from May 1 to 20 fell 9.4% to 799,405 tonnes from 882,469 tonnes shipped during April 1 to 20. However, demand is Stocks data from industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed inventory levels at the end of April down 11.3 percent to 1.93 million tonnes against the previous month's 2.17 mn tn. But exports of palm oil products for May 1-10 slid 16.7% to 380,047 tn.
The Solvent Extractors' Association of India will release the data this week. Imports by India, may probably decline in April, as reserves stayed near a record and summer heat curbed consumption of fried foods. Imports of all vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, fell 7.5 per cent to 896,714 tn in March, pulled down by the drop in palm oil imports. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports fell nearly nine percent during March to 850,000 tn, the trade body said, off a record of 930,000 tn on March 1. Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports. India's imports of palm oil could rise more than 17% in the year to October 2013 to stand at 9 mn tn, compared with 7.67 mn tn of palm oil in 2011/12 as the edible oil is the cheapest available, despite an import duty. Buy NCDEX Ref Soy Oil June between 690-695, SL -680, Target - 710 / 713 Buy MCX CPO June between 466-470, SL -458, Target - 483 / 485

Domestic Scenario

Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | May 20, 2013

Sugar
Weekly Price Performance
Sugar prices extended the gains of the previous week on account of good demand from the bulk consumers. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped on account of weak international markets & sufficient supplies in the domestic markets. ICE sugar declined further below 17 cents per pound and settled lower by 2.4% last week as record production in brazil weighed on the prices. As on 17th May, 2013, Sugarcane has been planted in 40.7 lakh ha against 45.7 lakh ha last year. Lower acreage has been reported in Maharashtra by 45% (5.1 lakh ha), Karnataka by 10.4% (3.27 lakh ha), India is expected to have produced around 24.52 million tonnes (mt) of sugar during the first six months of the 2012-13 sugar marketing season.

Sugarcane planting down 10.9%

India sugar reserves at five-year high set to avert imports

Sugar inventories in India, are poised to surge by 37% to 9.2 million tonnes at the start of October, a five-year high as exports halt because of slumping global prices. Exports have plunged to about 35,000 tonnes since 1 October from 3.4 million tonnes in 2011-2012.
Demand from Brazil's resurgent biofuels industry will cut the burgeoning global sugar surplus, helping cushion prices that fell below 17 cents per lb for the first time in almost three years. Sugar prices are expected to gain on account of improvement in demand from the bulk manufacturers. Further, lower cane planting figures may also support an upside in the sugar prices. Buy NCDEX SUGAR June between 3010-3030, SL -2940, Target - 3135 / 3150

Brazil ethanol demand to cut global sugar surplus Copersucar

Outlook

Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | May 20, 2013

Kapas/Cotton
Weekly Price Performance
Domestic Kapas as well as cotton prices remained in the negative territory last week on account of supply pressure caused due to offloading from the state reserves. ICE Cotton futures gained in the early part of week on account of U.S. plantings delays which raised worry over upcoming supplies. However, prices declined after the release of poor weekly exports sales. w-o-w ICE Cotton settled 0.08% lower. Cotton Corporation & NAFED are expected to offload 8 lakh bales at lower prices. After an unsuccessful bid to offload of 2.5 lakh bales of cotton in April, the government has now decided to give it a fresh chance. CAB in its latest meet has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales. While Import are estimated 2.5 mn bales. Cotton prices have shown some recovery in the past weeks as unfavorable weather caused delay in plantings. As on 12h May, Cotton planting was 23% completed in the US compared to 46% during the last year and average 38% in the last five years. However, Planting is expected picked up as weather improved in Mississippi Delta and into the Southeast United States . Cotton prices may trade with downward bias as offloading more stocks in the local markets from state reserves may exert pressure on the domestic cotton prices. However, if international markets recover sharply, then we may see prices taking a rebound from lower levels. Sell MCX Cotton June between 18240-18300, SL -18520, Target - 17900 / 17850

Govt Likely to Sell More Cotton this Month

Cotton Advisory Board sees lower kharif sowing

US Cotton planting to determine cotton prices

Outlook

Strategy

Commodities Weekly Tracker

Monday | May 20, 2013

Thank You!

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