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1 Introduction
Problem profiles have been submitted to PSU in previous rounds of funding for
DVEC and AMEC campaigns. These were variable in quality and content, and
did not always adhere to NIM requirements. They often did not demonstrate that
the problem was fully understood, or that operational responses were based on
the inferences and recommendations arising from the analysis of the problem.
The wide differences between the problem profiles submitted meant that making
direct comparisons between BCUs was difficult; this was often the case even
from those within the same force.
A problem profile is now required from each of the 13 BCUs involved in tranche
three of the Tackling Violent Crime Programme (TVCP), listed in Appendix 1.
These problem profiles will be used to understand the problems associated with
violent crime from a variety of different areas, to identify cross cutting issues
affecting these areas, and recognise where good practice has been used in
developing the problem profiles and drawing out appropriate recommendations.
In order to ensure more consistency between these, this guidance has been
prepared specifically relating to the TVCP, based on the previous analysis of
AMEC and DVEC problem profiles. It is not intended to be prescriptive or
exhaustive. Instead it provides suggestions as to what aspects of the problem
should be considered in the analysis, whilst still allowing flexibility in the final
content, to reflect the local situation. This guidance may at times appear to be
stating the obvious; it does so as basic points were omitted from the earlier
problem profiles.
The TVCP has focused on alcohol-related violence and domestic violence; whilst
these are still the main focus of this problem profile, this should be put into
context for all violent crime within each BCU.
The NIM guidance sets out clearly what the functions of a problem profile are,
and what the minimum requirements should be (ACPO Centrex, 2005). All
problem profiles submitted should adhere to the NIM requirements. The functions
include providing a clear picture of a problem; show evidence of information
analysis; make recommendations based on the analysis; and enable managers
to justify actions and allocate appropriate resources. The minimum requirements
are based around information on sensitivity, operational objectives, authorisation,
justification, analysis of the problem and plans for future work.
3 Overall structure of the problem profile
The problem profile should be structured around the NIM guidance, and use
templates provided by ACPO Centrex for this purpose. The overall structure
should include the following: an introduction, describing the problem and reasons
for conducting the analysis; a detailed analysis of the problem, using the
appropriate analytical tools; and finally recommendations for further actions,
based on the evidence emerging from the analysis.
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Analysis
The analysis section should show a clear understanding of the problem using
standard analytical products and techniques as appropriate. The problem profile
analysis could contain information about a crime series, victim group, offenders,
temporal analysis and geographical hotspots. The analysis should draw out clear
inferences from the analysis, in understanding why problems exist in certain
places at certain times, and identify key pinch points where interventions can be
most effective. This is discussed in more detail below, in relation to violent crime.
Total violent crime should be broken down into its constituent crime types,
such as violence against the person (broken down further into serious
wounding, less serious wounding, common assault, harassment and other
violence), sexual offences and robbery, and look at how these have changed
over time. The analysis should clearly explain the definitions and Home Office
offence codes used to extract the data for the analysis. The TVCP is focused
on reducing violence resulting in harm to the victim, and this should be
reflected in the focus of the profile, with particular attention being paid to
section 18, 20 and 47 offences (resulting in harm). This should be put into
context within violent crime as a whole.
If other relevant data from partner agencies is also available, for example
surveys about public reassurance and safety, then this should also be
incorporated into the analysis to give as broad a picture as possible.
For domestic violence offences, the ACPO definition should be used (ACPO,
2005), although the analysis will need to take into account any
alternative/wider definitions used by partner agencies that might need to be
considered. Again, non-violent crimes and non-crimed incidents need to be
included to understand the problem fully, and to look in more detail at how
problems have escalated over time.
The analysis should look at trends in violent crime, counts and percentage
changes over time for specific offence types and, where possible, rates of
offences. The denominator for determining rates should reflect the type of
violent crime and the location in which it is occurring – using household or
population data for violent crime in town centres will give misleading results,
as it will not take account of the influx of people due to the night-time
economy. For example, the average monthly footfall count in a town centre
can give some indication of the change in the number of people out in the
town centre and how this relates to the level of violent crime. For domestic
violence, rates of victimisation can be determined using sociodemographic
data, to ascertain whether the victim and offender profiles are typical of the
local population, or if issues of underreporting may be identified for particular
population groups.
Whilst reporting rates for all violent crime are relatively low, underreporting is
inherently problematic for domestic violence. Operational efforts should be
made to increase rates of reporting, whilst decreasing the incidence of repeat
victimisation. This should be reflected within the agreed measures of success,
and the trends in recorded domestic violence.
Geographical hot spot analysis, and GIS techniques are suitable for location
based offences, although not so appropriate for DV, where repeat
victimisation should focus on the individual rather than a geographical
location. The analysis for violent crime should look at hot areas, hot lines
(streets) and hot dots (premises), and how these have changed over time
(comparing the TVCP period to equivalent period in 2005). Local knowledge
and additional information should be used in conjunction with this ascertain
why clusters of crime occur in these areas, and identify possible action points
to reduce violence.
Repeat offences for night-time economy related violence tend to focus more
on repeat locations rather than individuals. However, it may also be useful to
know if repeat victimisation of an individual (and repeat offending) is a
problem in this scenario, to understand whether the same people get involved
in incidents on a regular basis, or whether they are more likely to be one-off
events. Knowledge about repeat victims, or particular groups who are
victimised more frequently, can help in targeting personal safety advice and
raise awareness of risk.
The profile of violent crime may differ in different areas within the BCU, to
reflect the concentration and closing times of pubs and clubs, and the ease of
dispersal of customers at the end of the night. A separate detailed analysis
should therefore be carried out for each area.
Further analysis could be carried out to investigate whether there are links
between violent incidents and other events, such as local or televised football
or rugby matches, the Christmas and New Year period, or certain days such
as Valentines Day. This should be analysed in relation to different crime types
and locations. It would also be useful to provide more evidence to support the
hypotheses around the peak times for DV being related to alcohol
consumption and pub closing times, drawing out the links between DV, the
night-time economy and sporting or other significant events.
In general, for alcohol-related violence, the victim and offender profiles will be
largely the same, reflecting the profile of people going out in the city centres
to some extent. For DV the victim and offender profiles are likely to be very
different, however care must be taken not to make assumptions about the
individuals involved, as these are not always as expected. Although DV
frequently involves a male perpetrator and female victim who are
(ex)partners, this is by no means the only situation that will arise,
consideration should also be given to same gender partnerships and to BME
community relationships and so called honour crimes.
Factors to consider when looking in detail include gender, age, ethnicity and
the relationship between victim and offender. The victim profile should focus
on factors which are considered as part of the risk assessment process, for
example using the SPECIAL CASES model (ACPO Centrex, 2006), including
repeat victimisation.
Offender profiles can help to ensure police resources and initiatives are being
targeted correctly, and not based on assumptions. For example, an initiative
to target underage drinkers early in the evening causing alcohol related
disorder will need a different approach to one centred on a night-club in the
early hours of the morning.
The analysis should give some indication about the reliability of the data in
identifying which offences are alcohol related, and how this would affect the
interpretation of the results. This may involve further searching through MO
notes to pull out relevant cases, and correlating these against those that have
been correctly flagged. Senior officers should ensure that the flag for alcohol
(and other special interest markers) are used in accordance with BCU or
force policy.
4.9 Detections
The use of PNDs was adopted in from 2004-05, and nationally these account for
11 percent of detections for violence against the person, most commonly for
harassment (Walker et al, 2006). It would be useful to understand more about the
use of PNDs, which offence types they were issued for, and the trends in use
since their introduction in each BCU. Where possible, this should link into the
analysis about repeat offending, and in particular look in more detail at the re-
offending rate for those issued with PNDs on the street, given that payment is
received for only just over half of all PNDs issued (NOMS, 2005).
For DVEC, one of the measures of success was the number of crimes leading
to an arrest as a result of improved police enforcement action during the
operation. This would also be relevant to include in the problem profile for the
TVCP. Include analysis of arrests, charges and sanction detections where this
adds to the understanding of the problem and how it is being addressed
within the BCU.
It is not enough simply to present the data about the problems of violent crime
within a geographical area, without providing some form of explanation of what is
happening within the area. The data analysis needs to be interpreted, taking into
account the necessary caveats, to understand why offences are happening at
certain times and places, and to look for pinchpoints to determine where
responses and resources can be targeted most effectively. The problem profile
should develop hypotheses about the crime problem that can be tested through
more in depth analysis. In interpreting the data and drawing out the
recommendations for further action, it should be made clear how proposed
interventions will have an effect on reducing violent crime (the expected
mechanism of the proposed intervention), and to what extent this may impact on
violent crime.
References
ACPO (2005) Guidance on identifying, assessing and managing risk in the
context of policing domestic violence. (http://www.acpo.police.uk)
ACPO Centrex (2005) Guidance on the National intelligence Model
(http://www.acpo.police.uk/asp/policies/Data/nim2005.pdf)
ACPO Centrex (2006) NCPE update Briefing No 1/2006 Domestic Violence
(www.genesis.pnn.police.uk)
NOMS (2005) Penalty notices for disorder statistics 2004. Online Report 35/05.
London: Home Office. (http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs05/rdsolr3505.pdf)
Shepherd, J. & Brickley, M. (1996). The relationship between alcohol intoxication,
stressors and injury in urban violence. British Journal of Criminology, 36 (4), 546-
566.
Walker, A., Kershaw, C. and Nicholas, S. (2006) Crime in England and Wales
2005-06. Home Office Statistical Bulletin 12/06. London: Home Office.
Acknowledgements
This report was prepared by Rosie Erol, of the UCL Jill Dando Institute Crime
Science Laboratory.
Appendix 1: BCUs in Tranche 3 of the Tackling Violent Crime Programme
TRANCHE 3
Queens Road Leicestershire
Camden MPS
Ealing MPS
Haringey MPS
Lewisham MPS
Newham MPS
Waltham Forest MPS
Bristol Avon & Somerset
Birmingham (D1, D3) West Midlands
Doncaster South Yorkshire
Sheffield Central South Yorkshire
City & Holbeck West Yorkshire
Kirklees West Yorkshire