Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Angee Mndez
Fabin Suaza
Sebastin Snchez
Presentado a
NOEL CUENCA
2013
MODELO ECONOMTRICO
PASO I: TEORA ECONMICA: PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO (PIB)
PARTICIPACIN DE SECTORES:
Cartagena
(9%).
Y=0 + 1 X 1 + 2X 2 + 3X 3 + 4X 4 + 5X 5 + 6X 6 + 7X 7
Ilustracin de cada uno de los componentes de la ecuacin
Matemtica
Estadstica
Econmica
Variable Dependiente
Variable Endgena
Variable Regresada
Variable Controlada
X1
Variable
Independiente
X2
Variable
Independiente
Variable Exgena
Variable Regresor
Variable Control
Variable Exgena
Variable Regresor
Variable Control
X3
Variable
Independiente
Variable Exgena
Variable Regresor
Variable Control
X4
Variable
Independiente
X5
Variable
Independiente
X6
Variable
Independiente
Variable Exgena
Variable Regresor
Variable Control
Variable Exgena
Variable Regresor
Variable Control
Variable Exgena
Variable Regresor
Variable Control
Interseccin
Parmetro
Primer Coeficiente
Parmetro
Segundo Coeficiente
Parmetro
Tercer Coeficiente
Parmetro
Cuarto Coeficiente
Parmetro
Quinto Coeficiente
Parmetro
Sexto Coeficiente
Parmetro
El cambio en el total
del PIB por cada
sector que agregue
El cambio en el total
del PIB por cada
sector que agregue
El cambio en el total
del PIB por cada
sector que agregue
El cambio en el total
del PIB por cada
sector que agregue
El cambio en el total
del PIB por cada
sector que agregue
El cambio en el total
del PIB por cada
sector que agregue
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
SA
SC
SCOM
SMAN
SMIN
-7875.099
1.192009
1.619999
0.978685
1.210617
0.807222
1791.415
0.069204
0.137076
0.080706
0.044266
0.056590
-4.396022
17.22461
11.81827
12.12661
27.34885
14.26453
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.999857
0.999846
1748.258
1.83E+08
-583.2855
84173.37
0.000000
Estimation Command:
=========================
LS PIB C SA SC SCOM SMAN SMIN
Estimation Equation:
184725.8
140686.4
17.85714
18.05619
17.93579
0.357296
=========================
PIB = C(1) + C(2)*SA + C(3)*SC + C(4)*SCOM + C(5)*SMAN + C(6)*SMIN
Substituted Coefficients:
=========================
PIB = -7875.09914164 + 1.19200891139*SA + 1.61999859279*SC +
0.97868539872*SCOM + 1.21061696937*SMAN + 0.807222443907*SMIN
ee 0 = 1.791.415
ee 1 = 0.21884
ee 2 = 0.13707
ee 3 = 0.25521
ee 4 = 0.13998
ee 5 = 0.17895
Se acepta H1 y se rechaza H0
El parmetro es Significativo
t (0.025) . (7) = 2.365
11.81827 > 2.365 Se acepta H1 y el parmetro es significativo
^3
Ho= 1 = 0
H1= 1 0
= 0.05
SI
t Calculado > t ( / 2), (n k)
Se acepta H1 y se rechaza H0
El parmetro es Significativo
t (0.025) . (7) = 2.365
12.12661 > 2.365 Se acepta H1 y el parmetro es significativo
^4
Ho= 1 = 0
H1= 1 0
= 0.05
SI
t Calculado > t ( / 2), (n k)
Se acepta H1 y se rechaza H0
El parmetro es Significativo
t (0.025) . (7) = 2.365
27.34885 > 2.365 Se acepta H1 y el parmetro es significativo
^5
Ho= 1 = 0
H1= 1 0
= 0.05
SI
t Calculado > t ( / 2), (n k)
Se acepta H1 y se rechaza H0
El parmetro es Significativo
t (0.025) . (7) = 2.365
14.26453 > 2.365 Se acepta H1 y el parmetro es significativo
MULTICOLINEALIDAD
Y=0 + 1 X 1i + 2X 2i + 3X 3i + 4X 4i + 5X 5i + i
1. Deteccin: Una R2 elevada pero pocas razones t significativas
Dependent Variable: PIB
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/11/12 Time: 14:00
Sample: 1 66
Included observations: 66
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
-7875.099
1.192009
0.807222
1.210617
1.619999
0.978685
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.999857
0.999846
1748.258
1.83E+08
-583.2855
84173.37
0.000000
1791.415
0.069204
0.056590
0.044266
0.137076
0.080706
-4.396022
17.22461
14.26453
27.34885
11.81827
12.12661
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
184725.8
140686.4
17.85714
18.05619
17.93579
0.357296
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
1.000000
0.795711
0.992590
0.974143
0.991187
0.795711
1.000000
0.769301
0.775502
0.759419
0.992590
0.769301
1.000000
0.971466
0.990854
0.974143
0.775502
0.971466
1.000000
0.959509
0.991187
0.759419
0.990854
0.959509
1.000000
Correlaciones
Parciales
Multicolinealidad
rX2 X1
0.795711
SI
rX3 X1
0.992590
SI
rX4 X1
0.974143
SI
rX5 X1
0.991187
SI
rX1 X2
0.795711
SI
rX1 X3
0.992590
SI
rX1 X4
0.974143
SI
rX1 X5
0.991187
SI
Tabla 1
Como se puede ver, la mayora de estos pares correlacionados son muy altos,
lo cual sugiere que existe un problema de colinealidad. Con el fin de aclarar
ms la naturaleza del problema de la Multicolinealidad efecturemos las
regresiones auxiliares; es decir la regresin de la variable X sobre las restantes
X.
3. Efectuar regresiones auxiliares, de cada variable independiente,
respecto a las otras, utilizando en el anlisis el valor R2 encontrado en
cada regresin, de la siguiente manera:
Regresin Auxiliar X1
Dependent Variable: X1
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/11/12
Time: 14:43
Sample: 1 66
Included observations: 66
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
X2
X3
X4
X5
24585.11
0.375249
0.249503
0.810267
0.682707
1037.501
0.093024
0.075410
0.231419
0.121057
23.69647
4.033903
3.308593
3.501292
5.639574
0.0000
0.0002
0.0016
0.0009
0.0000
R-squared
0.992666
68506.48
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.992185
3234.525
6.38E+08
-624.4382
2064.098
0.000000
36588.73
19.07389
19.23977
19.13943
0.603557
Acepta H1; R
Rechaza H0
F =?
(0.9926661.2345) / (5-2)
0.330888666
F = ------------------------------------- = -------------------- = 0.336272641
(1- 0. 9926661.2345) / (66-5+1) 0.983989258
6. Toma de Decisin:
F calc F () (k-2) (n-k+1):
0.336272641 (0.05) (3) (62)
0.336272641 < 2.76
Regresin Auxiliar X2
Dependent Variable: X2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/11/12
Time: 14:46
Sample: 1 66
Included observations: 66
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
X1
X3
X4
X5
-12988.40
0.561187
-0.098726
-0.094216
-0.399070
3696.307
0.139118
0.099353
0.309907
0.175306
-3.513886
4.033903
-0.993692
-0.304015
-2.276416
0.0008
0.0002
0.3243
0.7622
0.0263
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.688977
0.668582
3955.530
9.54E+08
-637.7196
33.78167
0.000000
7085.742
6870.944
19.47635
19.64223
19.54190
0.207900
F =?
(0.6889772.1345) / (5-2)
0.229659
F = ------------------------------------- = -------------------- = 0.232239772
(1- 0.6889772.1345) / (66-5+1) 0.988887467
6. Toma de Decisin:
F calc F () (k-2) (n-k+1):
0.232239772 (0.05) (3) (62)
0.232239772 < 2.76
Regresin Auxiliar X3
Dependent Variable: X3
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/11/12 Time: 14:47
Sample: 1 66
Included observations: 66
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
X1
X2
X4
X5
-24047.69
0.609818
-0.161350
0.867276
0.778745
4167.585
0.184313
0.162374
0.380619
0.211072
-5.770173
3.308593
-0.993692
2.278595
3.689469
0.0000
0.0016
0.3243
0.0262
0.0005
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.989200
0.988492
5056.767
1.56E+09
-653.9300
1396.815
0.000000
49149.08
47138.27
19.96758
20.13346
20.03312
0.367214
F =?
(0.9892003.1245) / (5-2)
0.329733333
F = ------------------------------------- = -------------------- = 0.335079472
(1- 0.9892003.1245) / (66-5+1) 0.984045161
6. Toma de Decisin:
F calc F ()(k-2)(n-k+1):
Regresin Auxiliar X4
Dependent Variable: X4
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/11/12 Time: 14:47
Sample: 1 66
Included observations: 66
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
X1
X2
X3
X5
-3691.829
0.206522
-0.016057
0.090442
-0.180842
1605.135
0.058985
0.052818
0.039692
0.071740
-2.300012
3.501292
-0.304015
2.278595
-2.520810
0.0249
0.0009
0.7622
0.0262
0.0143
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.955155
0.952215
1632.977
1.63E+08
-579.3287
324.8125
0.000000
9047.939
7470.208
17.70693
17.87281
17.77248
0.731719
F =?
(0.9551554.1235) / (5-2)
0.318385
F = ------------------------------------- = -------------------- = 0.323366698
(1- 0.9551554.1235) / (66-5+1) 0.984594274
6. Toma de Decisin:
F calc F () (k-2) (n-k+1):
0.323366698 (0.05) (3) (62)
0.323366698 < 2.76
Regresin Auxiliar X5
Dependent Variable: X5
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/11/12 Time: 14:48
Sample: 1 66
Included observations: 66
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
X1
X2
X3
X4
-8053.885
0.501981
-0.196207
0.234273
-0.521691
2648.345
0.089010
0.086191
0.063498
0.206954
-3.041101
5.639574
-2.276416
3.689469
-2.520810
0.0035
0.0000
0.0263
0.0005
0.0143
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.988145
0.987367
2773.556
4.69E+08
-614.2906
1271.079
0.000000
F =?
(0.9881455.1234) / (5-2)
0.329381666
31738.91
24676.65
18.76638
18.93227
18.83193
0.521912
6. Toma de Decisin:
F calc F () (k-2) (n-k+1):
0.334716315 > (0.05) (3) (62)
0.334716315 < 2.76
Regresin
F Obtenido
F Tabla
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
0.336272641
0.232239772
0.335079472
0.323366698
0.334716315
2.76
2.76
2.76
2.76
2.76
Comparar
R2 con F
tabla
<
<
<
<
<
Decisin
Acep H0 o Acep H1
H0 =
H0 =
H0 =
H0 =
H0 =
No Multicolinealidad
No Multicolinealidad
No Multicolinealidad
No Multicolinealidad
No Multicolinealidad
Tabla 2
Decisin FIV:
FIV 10, Variable
Regresor
(Variable X
utilizada como
dependiente)
R , de la
regresin
auxiliar
ndice de
tolerancia
2
(TOL)= 1- R
Factor de
inflacin
(FIV)=
2
1/(1- R )
X1
0.992666
0.007334
136.3512
X2
0.688977
0.311023
3.2151
X3
0.989200
0.0108
92.5925
Colinealidad
Variable altamente
colineal
X4
0.955155
0.044845
22.2990
Colinealidad
Variable altamente
colineal
X5
0.988145
0.011855
84.3525
Colinealidad
Variable altamente
colineal
Colinealidad
No Colinealidad
altamente colineal.
Tabla 3
t = t - t-1
Y* = Yt - Yt-1
X1* = X 1t -X 1t-1
X2* = X 2t -X 2t-1
X3* = X 3t - X 3t-1
X4* = X 4t - X 4t-1
X5* = X 5t - X 5t-1
REGRESIONES AUXILIARES dYt = d(Yt)
Regresin Auxiliar dx1 = d(x1)
Dependent Variable: DX1
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/11/12 Time: 20:29
Sample (adjusted): 2 66
Included observations: 65 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
DX2
DX3
DX4
DX5
549.5546
0.198287
0.341621
-0.164424
0.525622
402.5315
0.203795
0.113303
0.246976
0.158690
1.365246
0.972975
3.015104
-0.665749
3.312259
0.1773
0.3345
0.0038
0.5081
0.0016
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.372482
0.330648
2230.591
2.99E+08
-590.7810
8.903701
0.000010
2062.046
2726.418
18.33172
18.49898
18.39772
2.100158
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
DX1
DX3
DX4
DX5
17.13775
0.078335
0.152399
-0.094732
0.004810
256.8968
0.080511
0.073844
0.155325
0.108477
0.066711
0.972975
2.063787
-0.609894
0.044342
0.9470
0.3345
0.0434
0.5442
0.9648
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.152963
0.096494
1402.012
1.18E+08
-560.5978
2.708795
0.038406
515.3077
1474.981
17.40301
17.57027
17.46900
0.805490
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
DX1
DX2
DX4
DX5
1236.200
0.385159
0.434923
-0.008231
0.093229
403.5923
0.127743
0.210740
0.263206
0.182862
3.062991
3.015104
2.063787
-0.031274
0.509832
0.0033
0.0038
0.0434
0.9752
0.6120
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.289907
0.242568
2368.468
3.37E+08
-594.6795
6.123995
0.000336
2367.877
2721.419
18.45168
18.61894
18.51767
1.539415
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
DX1
DX2
DX3
DX5
442.8927
-0.044597
-0.065040
-0.001980
0.004932
205.0476
0.066988
0.106641
0.063321
0.089883
2.159951
-0.665749
-0.609894
-0.031274
0.054872
0.0348
0.5081
0.5442
0.9752
0.9564
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.023627
-0.041465
1161.695
80972107
-548.3759
0.362976
0.834005
318.8615
1138.334
17.02695
17.19421
17.09295
1.736865
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
DX1
DX2
DX3
DX4
521.1508
0.294099
0.006813
0.046267
0.010174
298.2461
0.088791
0.153637
0.090750
0.185418
1.747385
3.312259
0.044342
0.509832
0.054872
0.0857
0.0016
0.9648
0.6120
0.9564
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.225509
0.173876
1668.516
1.67E+08
-571.9095
4.367554
0.003636
1243.908
1835.726
17.75106
17.91832
17.81706
2.027442
Regresor
(Variable X
utilizada como
dependiente)
R , de la
regresin
auxiliar
ndice de
tolerancia
2
(TOL)= 1- R
Factor de
inflacin
(FIV)=
2
1/(1- R )
Decisin:
Tol, cercano a 0
Colinealidad.
Tol, cercano a 1
evidencia no
Colinealidad.
Decisin FIV:
FIV 10, Variable
altamente colineal.
X1
0.372482
0.627518
1.593579786
X2
0.152963
0.847037
1.180585972
X3
0.289907
0.710093
1.408266241
X4
0.023627
0.976373
1.024198744
X5
0.225509
0.774491
1.291170588
No Colinealidad
Variable de baja
colinealidad
No Colinealidad
Variable de baja
colinealidad
No Colinealidad
Variable de baja
colinealidad
No Colinealidad
Variable de baja
colinealidad
No Colinealidad
Variable de baja
colinealidad
Tabla 4
PRUEBAS DE NORMALIDAD
Histograma de Residuos
Prueba de Normalidad de Jarque Bera (JB)
HISTOGRAMADE RESIDUOS
12
Series: Residuals
Sample 1 66
Observations 66
10
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
Jarque-Bera
Probability
1.16e-11
200.6929
5149.482
-2649.644
1679.672
0.278229
2.665784
1.158703
0.560262
0
-2000
2000
4000
JB =1.158703
Valor p = 0.560262 56.02% la probabilidad de cometer el error es de tipo I
JB ~ 2 con 2 g de l
Buscando en la tabla 2 (0.05), 2 = 10.5966
2 calculado < 2 tabla
1.158703 < 10.5966, Se acepta H0 y se rechaza H1: Es decir no hay supuestos
de normalidad.
Al aplicarse la Prueba Jarque-Bera, se hace evidente que el estadstico JB es
del 1.158703 y que la probabilidad de obtener un estadstico bajo el supuesto
de normalidad es aproximadamente del 56%, es decir al parecer el trmino de
error en este ejemplo sigue la distribucin normal. Por supuesto, se debe tener
en cuenta que la prueba JB es una prueba para muestras grandes y que la
muestra de 66 observaciones quiz no sea muy grande.
En consecuencia se rechaza la hiptesis de que los trminos de error estn
normalmente distribuidos.
Anlisis del Histograma
A partir del histograma, parece que los residuos estn normalmente
distribuidos.
ANALISIS DE LOS RESIDUALES
obs
Actual
Fitted
Residual
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
36286.0
40439.0
44144.0
47300.0
48380.0
44433.0
44337.0
47884.0
50698.0
53755.0
55403.0
57917.0
58595.0
62817.0
66454.0
68308.0
69173.0
68990.0
69101.0
73961.0
77882.0
85612.0
88875.0
90998.0
99292.0
94278.0
97014.0
103548.
33635.8
39060.1
42040.3
46188.2
46697.4
42311.6
41963.5
45949.5
49463.1
52054.6
54124.7
56784.6
57715.4
62158.4
66397.5
68183.9
69309.5
70487.9
70701.9
75290.2
79677.1
87992.3
89954.0
92012.6
99844.6
93494.8
95642.1
102218.
2650.25
1378.86
2103.68
1111.84
1682.61
2121.36
2373.48
1934.55
1234.85
1700.42
1278.26
1132.45
879.596
658.566
56.4797
124.081
-136.485
-1497.88
-1600.91
-1329.22
-1795.05
-2380.27
-1078.97
-1014.62
-552.621
783.187
1371.91
1329.93
Residual Plot
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. | .*
. | *.
. | .*
. |*.
. | *
. | .*
. | .*
. | *
. | *.
. | *
. | *.
. | *.
. |*.
. |* .
. * .
. * .
. * .
.* | .
* | .
.* | .
* | .
*. | .
.*| .
.*| .
. *| .
. |*.
. | *.
. | *.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
109660.
117852.
121937.
125922.
129391.
131774.
141941.
146517.
154007.
160723.
164775.
174704.
171551.
178954.
189416.
200648.
213550.
224689.
236464.
257100.
275744.
292407.
299208.
312132.
322197.
348576.
366235.
376904.
382329.
382972.
390471.
405434.
418720.
443334.
467799.
484651.
503454.
521885.
108532.
117204.
121088.
125613.
130074.
133611.
144322.
147924.
156103.
163072.
166356.
176646.
170962.
178078.
190952.
203298.
215947.
225977.
237653.
258911.
277332.
294919.
301520.
314513.
323138.
348493.
365250.
376004.
380189.
377823.
388089.
404056.
418443.
444000.
467188.
485036.
502755.
519477.
1128.47
648.117
849.329
308.886
-682.769
-1837.15
-2381.18
-1406.71
-2096.08
-2349.49
-1580.95
-1941.73
588.871
875.829
-1535.87
-2649.64
-2397.00
-1288.16
-1188.96
-1810.88
-1588.45
-2511.62
-2312.30
-2380.73
-940.682
83.0114
985.308
899.583
2139.78
5149.48
2382.34
1377.69
277.305
-666.142
610.776
-384.774
698.570
2407.60
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. | *.
. |* .
. |*.
. |* .
. *| .
* | .
*. | .
.* | .
*. | .
*. | .
* | .
* | .
. |* .
. |*.
.* | .
*. | .
*. | .
.* | .
.* | .
* | .
* | .
*. | .
*. | .
*. | .
.*| .
. * .
. |*.
. |*.
. | .*
. | .
. | .*
. | *.
. |* .
. *| .
. |* .
. *| .
. |*.
. | .*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-1
-2
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Standardized Residuals
SESGO DE ESPECIFICACIN
PRUEBA MWD
VARIABLE INCLUIDA
VARIABLE EXCLUIDA
PROBAR MEJOR MODELO
AKAIKE
SCHWARS
VARIABLE EXCLUIDA
FORMULACIN DE HIPTESIS
1. H0 = Variable No Redundante
H1 = Variable Redundante
VARIABLES
INDEPENDIENTES
1
X
2
X
3
X
PRUEBA DE
VARIABLE EXCLUIDA
(E.T)
F
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
X
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
SIGNIFICATIVA
AK
17.85714
17.85714
17.85714
SCH
18.05619
18.05619
18.05619
DEBE EXCLUIRSE
SI
NO
P > 0.05
P < 0.05
NO
NO
NO
X
5
X
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
17.85714
17.85714
18.05619
18.05619
NO
NO
Tabla 5
VARIABLE INCLUIDA
1. H0 = Variable Redundante
H1 = Variable No Redundante
VARIABLES
INDEPENDIENTES
1
X
2
X
3
X
4
X
5
X
Tabla 6
PRUEBA DE
VARIABLE INCLUIDA
F
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
X
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
33635.75
yf
34
133611.1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
39060.14
42040.32
46188.16
46697.39
42311.64
41963.52
45949.45
49463.15
52054.58
54124.74
56784.55
57715.40
62158.43
66397.52
68183.92
69309.48
70487.88
70701.91
75290.22
79677.05
87992.27
89953.97
92012.62
99844.62
93494.81
95642.09
102218.1
108531.5
117203.9
121087.7
125613.1
130073.8
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
144322.2
147923.7
156103.1
163072.5
166356.0
176645.7
170962.1
178078.2
190951.9
203297.6
215947.0
225977.2
237653.0
258910.9
277332.5
294918.6
301520.3
314512.7
323137.7
348493.0
365249.7
376004.4
380189.2
377822.5
388088.7
404056.3
418442.7
444000.1
467188.2
485035.8
502755.4
519477.4
PASO II
Estmese el modelo logartmico para obtener los valores de ^y
Lnf
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
10.42334
10.57286
10.64638
10.74048
10.75144
10.65282
10.64456
10.73530
10.80898
10.86005
10.89905
10.94702
10.96328
11.03744
11.10341
11.12996
11.14634
11.16320
11.16623
11.22911
11.28574
11.38500
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
11.80269
11.87980
11.90445
11.95827
12.00195
12.02189
12.08190
12.04920
12.08998
12.15978
12.22243
12.28279
12.32819
12.37857
12.46424
12.53297
12.59445
12.61659
12.65878
12.68583
12.76137
12.80834
Ln^y
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
11.40705
11.42968
11.51137
11.44566
11.46837
11.53486
11.59480
11.67167
11.70427
11.74096
11.77586
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
12.83736
12.84842
12.84218
12.86899
12.90931
12.94430
13.00358
13.05449
13.09198
13.12786
13.16058
PASO III
Obtengase una variable Z1 (LnYf - Lnf)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
33625.33
39049.57
42029.68
46177.42
46686.64
42300.98
41952.88
45938.72
49452.34
52043.72
54113.84
56773.61
57704.44
62147.40
66386.42
68172.79
69298.34
70476.72
70690.75
75279.00
79665.77
87980.89
89942.56
92001.19
99833.11
93483.37
95630.62
102206.5
108519.9
117192.2
121076.0
125601.4
130062.0
PASO IV
Efectuese la regresin Y sobre X y Z1.
Dependent Variable: YF
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/11/12 Time: 00:17
Sample: 1 66
Included observations: 66
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
133599.3
144310.3
147911.8
156091.1
163060.5
166343.9
176633.6
170950.1
178066.1
190939.7
203285.4
215934.7
225964.8
237640.6
258898.4
277319.9
294906.0
301507.7
314500.1
323125.0
348480.2
365236.9
375991.6
380176.4
377809.7
388075.8
404043.4
418429.8
443987.1
467175.2
485022.7
502742.3
519464.2
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
Z1
C
1.191956
0.807186
1.210563
1.619926
0.978642
4.47E-05
-7874.746
6.94E-06
4.70E-06
7.05E-06
9.44E-06
5.70E-06
5.83E-06
0.045935
171664.8
171661.4
171662.9
171661.6
171669.8
7.680628
-171432.7
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
1.000000
1.000000
9.78E-06
5.64E-09
671.3659
2.24E+21
0.000000
184725.8
140676.4
-20.13230
-19.90006
-20.04053
0.129819
^Z1
P valor = 0. 00, es decir, 0% de probabilidad de cometer el error de tipo 1.
H0: Modelo lineal
H1: Modelo Log-lineal
= 0.05 Si t calculado > t (n/ 2), (n-k).
Se acepta H1 y se rechaza H0, El parmetro es significativo.
t (0.025), (59) = 2.000
7.680628 > 2.000, se acepta H1. Por tanto al nivel de significancia dado se
rechaza H0. Lo que significa que el modelo de Log-lineal es mejor que el
modelo lineal, aunque falta hacer la prueba con otra estimacin para
determinar si existe ambigedad a la hora de especificacin de los modelos.
PASO V
Obtengase la variable Z2 = (antilog deLnf Yf)
Dependent Variable: LNF
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/11/12 Time: 00:30
Sample: 1 66
Included observations: 66
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
Z2
10.60235
8.42E-06
-1.06E-05
-4.77E-06
-1.82E-05
3.53E-05
-38845785
0.224641
8.67E-06
7.09E-06
5.59E-06
1.72E-05
1.01E-05
1.50E+08
47.19677
0.970334
-1.498405
-0.853509
-1.062228
3.502307
-0.259073
0.0000
0.3358
0.1394
0.3968
0.2925
0.0009
0.7965
R-squared
0.932239
11.82652
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.925348
0.218488
2.816483
10.43753
135.2843
0.000000
0.799662
-0.104168
0.128068
-0.012400
0.124246
^Z2
P valor = 0. 7965, es decir, 79.65% de alta probabilidad de cometer error.
H0: Modelo Log-lineal
H1: Modelo lineal Modelo Log-lineal
= 0.05 Si t calculado > t (n/ 2), (n-k).
Se acepta H1 y se rechaza H0, El parmetro es significativo.
t (0.025), (23) = 2.000
-0.259073 < 2.000, rechazo H1 y se acepta H0.
Por lo anterior queda claro que el mejor modelo es Log-lineal, y por tal razn se
debe correr dicho modelo si quiere ser objeto de estudio.
COMPARACION DE LOS RESULTADOS ANTERIORES CON LOS
CRITERIOS AKAIKE Y SCHWARS
MODELO LINEAL
AK
SCH
-20.13230
-19.90006
MODELO LOG-LINEAL
AK
SCH
-0.104168
0.128068
Tabla 8
HETEROCEDASTICIDAD
24,000,000
20,000,000
20,000,000
16,000,000
16,000,000
U2
28,000,000
24,000,000
U2
28,000,000
12,000,000
12,000,000
8,000,000
8,000,000
4,000,000
4,000,000
0
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
40,000
80,000
YF
120,000
160,000
200,000
X1
28,000,000
28,000,000
24,000,000
24,000,000
20,000,000
20,000,000
16,000,000
U2
U2
16,000,000
12,000,000
12,000,000
8,000,000
8,000,000
4,000,000
4,000,000
0
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
40,000
80,000
X2
120,000
160,000
X3
28,000,000
24,000,000
24,000,000
20,000,000
20,000,000
16,000,000
16,000,000
U2
U2
28,000,000
12,000,000
12,000,000
8,000,000
8,000,000
4,000,000
4,000,000
10,000
20,000
30,000
X4
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
X5
FORMULACIN DE HIPTESIS
1. Prueba de Hiptesis:
H0: Homocedasticidad
H1: Heterocedasticidad.
2. Nivel de Significancia:
= 0.05
3. Definicin Estadstico de Trabajo:
4. Criterio de Decisin:
t calc t ( / 2) (n-k)
p < 0.05
5. Clculos
6. Toma de Decisin:
Acepto H1
Rechazo H0