Structural Reliability Analysis of The Bending Strength of Steel Beams

Steel Innovations Conference 2013, Christchurch, New Zealand, 21-22 February 2013 1
Structural Reliability Analysis

Dr Stephen Hicks & Prof. Brian Uy
Steel Innovations Conference 2013, Christchurch, New Zealand, 21-22 February 2013

2
Structural Reliability according to AS 5104 (ISO 2394
identical, which is referenced in AS/NZS 1170)
Design life = reference period
(normally taken as 50 years)

Probability of failure for
resistance at ULS over a 50-
year reference period (low
relative costs for safety
measures and moderate
consequences of failure)
p
f
= 7.210
-5
|=3.8

o
E
and o
R
are vectors of the
limit state function, which
according to AS 5104 (ISO
2394) may be taken as -0.7
and 0.8, respectively for
FORM when 0.16 < o
E
/ o
R
< 7.6
p
f
10
-6
10
-5
10
-4
10
-3
10
-2
10
-1
|
4.75 4.27 3.72 3.09 2.32 1.28
ULS SLS
Probability of failure vs. reliability index
Design point and reliability index | according
to the first order reliability method (FORM)

3
Basis of Load and Strength capacity reduction
factors

Normal distribution usually
taken

Characteristic value
Mean value if variability small
Upper value (normally 95%
fractile) if variability is not small
Log-normal distribution usually
taken (resistance doesnt have
negative values)

Characteristic (or nominal) value
for resistance For large sample
of data and a normal distribution
5% fractile = 1.64
R

Design value = 0.8x3.8
R
= 3.04
R

( 1 in 845 = 0.12% probability of
observing lower value)
Loads Material and product properties
S
S
k
S
d
o
S

S
R
R
d
R
k
-o
R

R
|=1/
R
S
R
k
/ R
d
=
R
= 1/|

4
For the design fractile factor k
d,n

as n , k
d,
= o
R
| = 3,04
For the characteristic fractile factor k
n

as n , k
n,
= 1,64

If log-normal distribution is taken (which is desirable as it falls to zero at
the origin, so there are no negative resistances)

where o
rt
and is the weighting factor for Q
rt
, Q
rt
is a coefficient for variation
of the variables in the resistance function, o
o
is the weighting factor for Q
o
,
Q
o
is a coefficient for variation of the error term o and Q is a coefficient for
variation of the resistance.

Corrected partial factor

where r
n
is the nominal resistance evaluated from the theoretical
resistance equation using nominal values for the basic variables and k
c
=
r
n
/ r
k

( ) ( )
2
5 , 0 exp Q Q k Q k X bg r
n rt rt m rt k
=
o o
o o
( ) ( )
2
, ,
n d rt rt d m rt d
=
o o
o o
Evaluation of partial safety factor
M
d
k
c M c M
r
r
k k = = = |
*
/ 1

5
Design model for beams in bending
Design section moment capacity
M
s
= | f
y
Z
e
where | is the strength reduction factor, f
y
is
the yield strength used in design (i.e. the
nominal value) and Z
e
is the effective section
modulus, which is dependant on whether the
section is compact, non-compact or slender
Design model which contains the
basic variables
r
t
= g
rt
(X
m
) = f
y,m
Z
e,m
where f
y,m
and Z
e,m
are the mean measured
basic variables that are included in a report
from a laboratory test
Correction factor
b
i
= r
ei
/r
ti
where r
ei
is the experimental resistance for
specimen i and r
ti
is the theoretical resistance
on specimen i
For beams in bending, typically b =
1.14 and 1.19 for partially laterally
restrained and fully laterally
restrained, respectively

Failure deemed to occur at end
rotation of 6 degrees

6
Negative cross-sectional tolerances for beams supplied to
different product standards
Parameter EN10034: 1993 JIS G 3192
AS 5100.6
AS/NZS 1365
Depth (h) (mm)
h180
180<h400
400<h700
h>700
-2
-2
-3
-5
h<400
400h600
h600
-2
-3
-4
-h/50
Width (b) (mm)
b 110
110<b210
210<b325
b>325
-1
-2
-4
-5
b<100
100b<200
b200
-2
-2.5
-3
-b/100
Web thickness
(t
w
) (mm)
t
w
<7
7 t
w
<10
10 t
w
<20
20 t
w
<40
40 t
w
<60
t
w
>60
-0.7
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
t
w
<16
16 t
w
<25
25 t
w
<40
t
w
40
-0.7
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
4.5 < t 6
6 < t 10
-0.85
-0.9
Flange thickness
(t
f
) (mm)
t
f
<6.5
6.5 t
f
<10
10 t
f
<20
20 t
f
<30
30 t
f
<40
40 t
f
<60
t
f
>60
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
-4
t
f
<16
16 t
f
<25
25 t
f
<40
t
f
40
-1.0
-1.5
-1.7
-2.0
Mass (%) -4
t
f
< 10
t
f
10
-5
-4
-4

7
Frequency of tensile tests
According to AS/NZS 3679.1,
for tensile tests, samples
representative of the batch
shall be taken as follows:
One sample for a batch not
exceeding 50 t.
One additional sample for the
balance of the batch.
Mill tests are invariably
conducted at a higher
strain rate than
laboratory testing
typically mean mill f
y
/
mean specified f
y
= 1.21
(CoV = 7%)

8
Stress-strain curves for steel and definition of yield
stress

With the exception of NZ only appendix for steel in seismic and fracture critical
applications given in AS/NZS 3678 and 3679.1, all product standards such as
EN 10025 define f
y
= R
eH


9
Full distribution of tensile test results
Lower End Upper End Frequency
265 0
265 270 1
270 275 1
275 280 2
280 285 2
285 290 3
290 295 6
295 300 14
300 305 23
305 310 28
310 315 25
315 320 19
320 325 15
325 330 6
330 335 4
335 340 3
340 345 1
345 350 1
350 1
Mean 310
SD 13.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
270 280 290 300 310 320 330 340 350
Yield Strength, fy (Mpa)

10
Full distribution of results
Lower End Upper End Frequency
265 0
265 270 1
270 275 1
275 280 2
280 285 2
285 290 3
290 295 6
295 300 14
300 305 23
305 310 28
310 315 25
315 320 19
320 325 15
325 330 6
330 335 4
335 340 3
340 345 1
345 350 1
350 1
Mean 310
SD 13.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
270 280 290 300 310 320 330 340 350
Yield Strength, fy (Mpa)
250 grade steel
Real test results a 250 Grade Steel

11
Test Certificates

12
Strength Reduction Factor |
n 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 10 20 30
k
n
2.31 2.01 1.89 1.83 1.80 1.77 1.74 1.72 1.68 1.67 1.64
k
d,n
4.36 3.77 3.56 3.44 3.37 3.33 3.27 3.23 3.16 3.13 3.04
2.6 2.8 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
Reliability index (|)
C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y

f
a
c
t
o
r
Steel (|)
( ) ( )
2
n rt rt m rt k
=
o o
o o
( ) ( )
2
, ,
n d rt rt d m rt d
=
o o
o o
Compact sections manufactured to EN 10034
manufacturing tolerances =0.94 at = 3.04
| =
c k
d
k r
r 1

13
Conclusions
For beams in bending, reliability analyses show | ~
0.9 is appropriate when conservatively assuming
that all negative geometrical tolerances occur and
no mass tolerance is used, f
y
= R
eH
and CoV = 7%.
Yield strengths on mill certificates are given for
conformity assessment purposes.
It is dangerous to use yield strengths from mill
certificates as the results represent a small fraction
of the steel used in design and allowances for the
actual yield strength being larger than the nominal
yield strength have been allowed for in the
evaluation of |

14
Where can I get further information?
stephen.hicks@hera.org.nz
http://www.hera.org.nz/

Structural Reliability Analysis of The Bending Strength of Steel Beams

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Steel Innovations Conference 2013, Christchurch, New Zealand, 21-22 February 2013 1

Structural Reliability Analysis

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