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ANALISIS PREDICTION OF TIDAL RIVER AND SEA OF THE EAST KALIMANTAN


WITH THE LEAST SQUARE METHODE

Tamrin
1



Abstract: Tidal fluctuations in sea level due to the gravity of the solar and lunar on the sea water mass on earth.
Information about the tidal is important in the planning of coastal and port construction.
Prediction of tidal with the least square method and FORTRAN as a programming language is expected to address this
issue. The prediction is done by the data for 15 days tides as input and output data is tidal for 19 years and can provide
information about the water level and tidal type.


Keywords: Tidal, Least Square Method, FORTRAN

1
Student of Doctoral Civil Engineer Civil Engineer Departement, Hasanuddin University, INDONESIA


INTRODUCTION
Indonesia as an archipelagic country has more than 3700
islands and coastal areas along 80,000 km. The coastal
area is an area used for intensive human activities, such
as the center of government, residential, industrial, ports,
aquaculture, agriculture / fisheries, tourism, and so on.
The existence of these activities can lead to increased
demand for land, infrastructure including coastal
structures.

Highest water level (tide) information and lows (low
tide) information are very important to plan for these
buildings.

Tidal fluctuations in sea level due to the gravity of the
objects in the sky, especially the sun and the moon to the
mass of sea water on earth. Although the moon much
smaller in mass than the mass of the sun, but because of
the distance to the earth is greater than the effect of solar
gravity so the tensile of the moon that affects tides is 2.2
times greater than the sun's gravity. (Bambang
Triatmodjo,1999)

To facilitate the measurement of tides can be done using
Least Square method (least squares method), that is by
entering observational data for 15 days or 30 days.

BASIC EQUATIONS AND METHODS IN MODEL

High tide is the vertical distance between the
highest water (peak tide) and low water (low tide valley)
successive. Tidal period is the time required of the
position of the water table at the mean water level to the
same position next. Tidal period can be 12 hours 25
minutes or 24 hours and 50 minutes, depending on the
type of ups and downs. The period time in which the
water level rise are called tide, while at low tide when
the water go down. Variations in water level cause
currents called tidal currents, which transport water
masses in huge quantities. High tide occurs during
periods of ups and downs flows occurred during low tide.
The turning point (slack) is when the tide turned the tide
and the ebb currents. The turning point may occur at the
highest water level and the lowest water level. The speed
of the tidal currents is zero. The pattern are not the same
in different regions. In some area in one day may happen
once or twice tides. In general, the tidal range of the area
can be divided into four types, namely single daily tides
(diurnal tide), the daily double (semidiurnl tide) and two
types of mixtures.

1. Double the daily tides (semidiurnal tide)
In one day happen twice tide and low tide twice with
almost the same height and tide occur sequentially on a
regular basis. Tidal period the average was 12 hours 25
minutes. The ups and downs of this type found in the
Straits of Malacca to the Andaman sea.

2. Single daily tides (diurnal tide)
In one day there was one high tide and one low tide.
Tidal period is 24 hours and 50 minutes. The ups and
downs of this type occur in the waters of strait Karimata.

3. Tidal leaning daily mix doubles (mixed semidiurnal
tide) In one day the tide occurs twice and both times the
water receded, but different height and different period.
The ups and downs of this type are common in eastern
Indonesian waters.

4. Tidal leaning single daily mix (mixed diurnal tide) In
this type occur that in one day occur once the tide and
once low, but sometimes temporarily tide occurs twice
and twice with high and low tide periods very different.
The ups and downs of this type found in Borneo strait
and the northern coast of West Java


International Seminar on Infrastucture Development in Cluster
Island Eastern Part of Indonesia, Baubau, Indonesia

Tamrin, ST.MT,
28

Bilangan Formzall
(F)
Tipe Pasang Surut Keterangan
F < 0.25 Pasang harian ganda (semidiurnal)
Dalam 1 hari terjadi 2 kali air pasang dan 2 kali air surut dengan
ketinggian yang hampir sama dan terjadi berurutan secara teratur.
Periode pasang surut rata-rata adalah 12 jam 24 menit.
0.25 < F < 1.5 Campuran, condong ke semi diurnal
Dalam 1 hari terjadi 2 kali air pasang dan 2 kali air surut dengan
ketinggian dan periode yang berbeda.
1.5<F<3.0 Campuran, condong ke diurnal
Dalam 1 hari terjadi 1 kali air pasang dan 1 kali air surut dengan
ketinggian yang berbeda. Kadang-kadang terjadi 2 kali air pasang
dalam 1 hari dengan perbedaan yang besar pada tinggi dan waktu.
F < 3.0 Pasang harian tunggal (diurnal)
Dalam 1 hari terjadi 1 kali air pasang dan 1 kali air surut. Periode
pasang surut adalah 24 jam 50 menit



Ficture 1. Type of Tidal

The process of full moon and neap tides can be
explained as follows. As mentioned before, due to the
gravity of the moon and the sun, the water layer initially
transformed into ellipse spherical. Due to the circulation
of the earth and the moon in its orbit, the position of the
earth-moon-sun always change at any time. Rotation in
the earth to within 29.5 days (number of days in a month
according to the lunar calendar year, that year based on
the lunar). At each about September 1 and 15 (new moon
and full moon) Position of the earth-moon-sun were
approximately in a straight line, so that the gravity of the
moon and the sun to the earth mutually reinforcing. In
this situation occurs moon tides (tidal, spring tide),
where high tides are very large compared to the other
days and about September 7 and 21 (one-quarter and
three-quarters of the Earth's moon's rotation) where the
moon and sun form a right angle to the earth. The moon
and the sun reduce mutual the earth gravity. In this
situation occurs neap tides (small tidal, neap tide) where
high tides small compared with other days

Ficture 2. Variation of Tidal

To determine the nature of the waters of an
ocean or tide river observations need to be done as a
phenomenon that can be observed use sea water daily.
The result was evaluated with seawater harmonic
approach to obtain harmonic constants called amplitude
(A) and phase difference (g0). Then analyzed to obtain
the type of tide, possibilities of lowest and highest sea
water, the mean sea level (S0), the age of the tides, the
amplitude and phase difference each harmonic tidal
constants are the properties of the waters . Including tidal
component of the largest and smallest, helter average
water and full moon tides of time.

Tabel 1 Nine Elements of Tidal Power
Elemen Periode (jam)
Anguler Velocity
(
0
/jam)
M
2
12.42 28.9841
S
2
12.00 30.0000
K
2
11.97 30.0821
N
2
12.66 28.4397
K
1
23.93 15.0411
O
1
25.82 13.9430
P
1
24.07 14.9589
M
4
6.21 57.9682
MS
4
6.20 58.9841

By obtaining the value of the amplitude of each
component can then be determined tidal tidal type that
occurred at the site, by doing calculations formzall (F) as
follows:

F =
2 AS 2 AM
1 AK 1 AO
+
+


where:
AO = O1 amplitude components.
AK1 = amplitude of the component K1
AM2 = amplitude component of M2
AS2 = S2 amplitude components

Type the numbers ebb and flow based formzall can be
seen in the following table.

Table 2 Types of Tidal Formzall by Numbers


The equation of mathematical model of water
level due to tides expressed as follows:

=
+ + =
K
k
i k k i k k i
t B t A S
1
0
sin cos e e q




Analisis Prediction of Tidal River and Sea of The East Kalimantan with The Least Square Methode


29

(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(


=
=
=
=
=
i k
M
i
i
i i
M
i
i
i k
M
i
i
i i
M
i
i
M
i
i
t
t
t
t
e q
e q
e q
e q
q
sin
...
sin
cos
...
cos
1
1
1
1
1
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(

k
i
k
i
B
B
A
A
S
...
...
0
where
k = number of constituents (so far max = 37)
e = angular frequency
| = phase

whereas for each constituent of the phase (| k) can be
searched by:

k
k
k
k k
k k
k
k
a
a
A
B
|
|
|
|
|
tan
cos
sin
cos
sin
=

=

So
(

=

k
k
k
A
B
1
tan |


If the tidal observations expressed by q i then
the error between the observations and calculations of
his mathematical models are:

(

+ + =

=
K
k
i k k i k k i i
t B t A S
1
0
sin cos e e q c


When the number of field measurement data given by M,
the squared error is: When the number of field
measurement data given by M, the squared error is:


= = =
|
|
.
|

\
|
(

+ + = =
M
i
K
k
i k k i k k i
M
i
i
t B t A S J
1
2
1
0
1
sin cos e e q c

In principle, the least square method will give the best
curve (curve fitting) with a minimum value of squared
errors. To get the best curve model parameters, then A
must didiferensialkan the constituent variables (ie S0,
Aj, and Bj, j = 1,2 .. K) and the result equated to zero.
So for 1 tidal constituents (for K = 1) is obtained three
simultaneous linear equations with 3 unknown numbers
that can be written in matrix form as follows:


(
(
(
(
(
(
(

=
(
(
(

(
(
(
(
(
(
(





=
=
=
= = =
= = =
= = =
M
i
i i
M
i
i i
M
i
i
M
i
i i
M
i
i i
M
i
i
M
i
i i
M
i
i i
M
i
i
M
i
i
M
i
i
M
i
t
t
B
A
S
t t t t t
t t t t t
t t
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1 1
1
1 1
1
1
1
1 1
1
1 1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
sin
cos
sin sin sin cos sin
cos sin cos cos cos
sin cos 1
e q
e q
q
e e e e e
e e e e e
e e

analogy to K constituents of the tides will
produce 2K +1 linear equations with 2K +1, so the
matrix will be obtained as follows:


(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(






= = = = =
= = = = =
= = = = =
= = = = =
= = = = =
M
i
i k i k
M
i
i k i i
M
i
i k i k
M
i
i k i i
M
i
i k
M
i
i i i k
M
i
i i i i
M
i
i i i k
M
i
i i i i
M
i
i i
M
i
i k i k
M
i
i k i i
M
i
i k i k
M
i
i k i i
M
i
i k
M
i
i i i k
M
i
i i i i
M
i
i i i k
M
i
i i i i
M
i
i i
M
i
i i
M
i
i i
M
i
i k
M
i
i i
M
i
t t t t t t t t t
t t t t t t t t t
t t t t t t t t t
t t t t t t t t t
t t t t
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
sin sin ... sin sin sin cos ... sin cos sin
... ... ... ... ... ... ...
sin sin ... sin sin sin cos ... sin cos sin
cos sin ... cos sin cos cos ... cos cos cos
... ... ... ... ... ... ...
cos cos ... cos sin cos cos ... cos cos cos
sin ... sin cos ... cos 1
.
e e e e e e e e e
e e e e e e e e e
e e e e e e e e e
e e e e e e e e e
e e e e

(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(

k
i
k
i
B
B
A
A
S
...
...
0
=


APPLICATION OF MODEL

The present numerical model has been long applied
to the calculation of waves, In this research, forecasting
the ups and downs for 19 years by using data of 15 days
tide has done. Location or region which is the object of
this study was Balikpapan, Bontang, Samarinda Tarakan,
and the Gulf of Sangkulirang. To prove that the
forecasting is done is valid then tested the validity is
verified by the data for 15 days tide has done by looking
at chart patterns between the data and the data the
original tidal tides predicted results.


Case 1. Application author Program



Figure 1 Verivication Model with Data


From the results of a calculation HHWL and LLWL data
obtained in each region.

1. Balikpapan has HHWL value is 3.00 m and -0.16 m
LLWL. Bontang HHWL value is 2.82 m and -0.24
m LLWL

Tamrin, ST.MT,
30

2. Samarinda has HHWL value is 2.35 m and 0.39 m
LLWL.
3. Tarakan has HHWL value is 3.68 m and -0.07 m
LLWL
4. Sangkulirang has HHWL is 2.46 m and 0.23 m
LLWL.

From the table above shows that although it is located in
the province of East Kalimantan and are in the same
waters, but the type of tide between Balikpapan, Bontang,
Samarinda Tarakan, and the Gulf of Sangkulirang has a
difference. This is due to sea respond differently to tidal
generating force, resulting in the type of tidal different
on each region. Different types of tidal allegedly caused
the distortion.

As a comparison to analyze the causes type of tidal
forecasting done to some other areas in Indonesia.
Forecasting results can be seen in Table

No Wilayah
Tipe Pasang
Surut
LLWL HHWL
1. Cirebon
Campuran
condong ke
semidiurnal
0,13 1,11
2. Donggala
Campuran
condong ke
semidiurnal
0,10 2,44
3. Gorontalo
Campuran
condong ke
semidiurnal
0,11 1,53
4. Mamuju
Campuran
condong ke
semidiurnal
0 2,12
5. Poso
Campuran
condong ke
semidiurnal
-0,02 1,75
6. Surabaya
Campuran
condong ke
semidiurnal
0,08 2,98
7. Suralaya
Campuran
condong ke
semidiurnal
0,18 0,98
8. Tarjun
Campuran
condong ke
semidiurnal
0,04 2,80
9. Semarang
Campuran
condong ke
diurnal
0,13 1,20
1 0. Sungai Barito
Campuran
condong ke
diurnal
0,10 3,00
11. Teluk Sampit
Campuran
condong ke
diurnal
0,11 3,33
12. Makassar Diurnal 0,03 1,63
13. Tanjungpriok Diurnal 0 1,25



CONCLUTION

1. Having regard to the comparison of tidal prediction
and the observational data prediction by Lasquer
method to believe in the level of accuracy
2. Although located in the same province and are in
the same waters each region has different types of
tides. Balikpapan has semidiurnal tides type.
Bontang has tidal semidiurnal mixture type.
Samarinda has tidal semidiurnal mixture type.
Tarakan has semidiurnal tides type. Gulf of
Sangkulirang have type mix tide leaning
semidiurnal.
3. From the table above shows that although it is
located in the province of East Kalimantan and are
in the same waters, but the type of tide between
Balikpapan, Bontang, Samarinda Tarakan, and the
Gulf of Sangkulirang has a difference. This is due
to sea respond differently to tidal generating force,
resulting in the type of tidal different on each
region. Different types of tidal allegedly caused the
distortion
4. Location data retrieval done for river in fact is not
exactly same to those in the sea, it is estimated that
the influence of different types of distortion that
causes the tides.



REFERENCE
Triatmojo, B. (2007), Pelabuhan, edisi 7, Beta Offset,
Yogyakarta, Indonesia

Taufiq Iskandar : Prediksi Pasang Surut Laut Di Selat
Malaka Dengan Menggunakan Model Hamsom,
2009

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. (2006), Coastal
Engineering Manual, U.S. Government printing
Office, Washington, USA.

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