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Definitions
Websters definitions: Projection
an estimate of future possibilities based on a current trend
Estimate
a rough or approximate calculation; a numerical value obtained from a statistical sample and assigned to a population parameter
Forecast
to calculate or predict (some future event or condition) usually as a result of study and analysis of available pertinent data
Forecasting: Need
Short-term
How much population would be available for next growth rate (interest)? Working on proposals without knowing what to expect could result in a waste of time
Long-term
Planning for long-lasting population assets Borrowing is usually a long-term commitment Growth rate accrue in the future
Forecasting Considerations
Forecasting Methods
1. Simplistic
Trend extrapolation or projection using historical data Most common local government population estimation tool
2.
3.
Multiple regression
Use of IVs to predict populations
Econometric
Complex multivariate technique using composite measures to estimate populations
4.
Microsimulation
Estimates based on sample of relevant data
Simplistic Models
Assumption
o Past trends will continue o No major legislative or tax change expected
Future population
o Extrapolated from historical data or previous forecasting Constant increments population increased by 5000 person for the past 5 years Constant percentage change population increased by 5% for the past 5 years Simple average compounded growth r = (Y / X)^1/n - 1 Linear (R = a + bt) time trends Nonlinear ( lnR = a + bt)
S = seasonal factor
Regular fluctuations; driven by weather and propriety
C = cycle
Periodic fluctuations around the trend level
Decomposition Model
Rt = (St ) (Tt ) (Ct ) (It )
Sequence for each of filters is as shown in the equation o R = population to be forecast o S = seasonal extracted by using a centered seasonal moving average o T = trend Adjusted by linear regression against time of the seasonally adjusted data o C = cycle Identified by removing the trend from the deseosonalized data o I = the irregular or residual influence Isolated by removing the cyclical component from the series o t = time of the data (historic or forecast)
Multiple Regression
Estimates population as a function of one or more IVs
o Each equation used to estimate a population source is independent of the others o Estimates for the independent variables are generated independent of the regression equation o The equation with the best goodness of fit is selected
Econometric Models
Uses a system of simultaneously interdependent equations to predict population
o The equations are linked by theoretical and empirical relationships o These models while preferred by economist because of their theoretical soundness, are in practice not much more accurate than multiple regression models o Better in predicting macroeconomic variables
Microsimulation Models
A statistical sample of tax data is used to forecast population from a tax source
o How the sample is drawn and its updating is critical o Economic activity expected in the budget year is included in the analysis o More applicable to estimate how population would be affected by proposed policy changes o Also useful for regular forecasting
Face Validity
--Availability of Data --Quality of Data Are the Inputs Good?
Model Complexity
--Ease of Application --Ease of Explanation Can we do this? Can we explain what we did?
Political Acceptability
Are the Outputs Acceptable?
Resources
--Money --Personnel --Time Can we afford it?
Forecast Accuracy
Is the Forecast Accurate?
Simplistic Models
1- Arithmetic increase method :
In this method, the rate of growth of population is assumed to be constant. This method gives too low an estimate, and can be adopted for forecasting populations of large cities which have achieved saturation conditions. Validity: The method valid only if approximately equal incremental increases have occurred between recent censuses.
dp k dt
pt
population
dp kdt
to
t o
po
p p kt
dp/dt : rate of change of population Pt : population at some time in the future po: present or initial population t : period of the projection in decades k : population growth rate (constant)
p k slope t pt po k slope t to
Time (decade) Note: decade = 10 years
2- Uniform percentage of increase: Assumption: This method assumes uniform rate of increase, that is the rate of increase is proportional to population).
dp k1 p dt
dp k 1 dt p 0 po
ln p ln p k1 t
t o
pt
dp/dt : rate of change of population Pt : population at some time in the future Po : present or initial population t : period of the projection in years k : population growth rate n : number of years
ln p ln p k1 (t t )
t o o
psat pt 1 e a bt
psat
2 po p1 p2 p12 ( po p2 ) po p2 p12
population
Time (year)
dp k2 ( psat p) dt
k 2 may be determined from successive censuses and the equation:
pt : population at some time in the future po: base population psat: population at saturation level p , po : are populations recorded n years apart t : no. of years after base year
psat p 1 k2 ln n psat po
then,
STUDY CITY - A
C A
D E
POPULATION
YEARS
n(n 1) pt po n.k .a 2
pt : population at some time in the future po: present or initial population k : rate of increase for each decade a : rate of change in increase for each decade n : period of projection in decades
p p (1 k )
t o
pt : population at some time in the future po: present or initial population k : average percentage increase (geometric mean) n : period of projection in decade
Example :
The population of a town as per the senses records are given below for the years 1945 to 2005. Assuming that the scheme of water supply will commence to function from 2010, it is required to estimate the population after 30 years, i.e. in 2040 and also, the intermediate population i.e. 15 years after 2010.
Year Population
1945 40185
1955
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
44522
60395 75614 98886 124230 158790
Solution :
1- Arithmetic increase method:
Increase in population from 1945 to 2005 , i.e. for 6 decades: 158800 40185 = 118615 = total increment Increase per decade = 118615 / no. of decade = 118615 / 6 = 19769
p p kt
t o
Year
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Population
40185 44522 60395 75614 98886 124230 158800 Total Average
Increase
-----44522 40185 = 4337 15873 15219 23272 25344
p p (19769)(2)
2025 2005
p p (19769)(3.5)
2040 2005
p p (1 k )
t o
Increase
-----44522 40185 = 4337 15873 15219 23272
Rate of growth
1995 2005
124230 158800
25344
0.256
34570
0.278
p p
2025
2005
(10.2442)
p p
2040
2005
(10.2442)
3.5
n(n 1) pt po n.k .a 2
Year
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Populat ion
40185 44522 60395 75614 98886 124230 158800 Total
Increase (k)
-----44522 40185 = 4337 15873 15219 23272 25344
Average
n(n 1) 2 x3 .a 158800 2 x19769 6047 216479, capita 2 2 n(n 1) 3.5 x4.5 .a 158800 3.5 x19769 6047 275612, capita 2 2
ln p ln p k1 (t t )
t o o
ln pt ln po k1 t
ln p2025 ln p2005 k1t ln p2025 ln 158800 0.024 x 20 12.455 p2025 e12.455 256530, capita ln p2040 ln p2005 k1t ln p2040 ln 158800 0.024 x35 12.815 p2040 e12.815 367692, capita
5- Logistic method:
Year
1945 1955
Population
40185 44522 60395 75614 98886 124230 158800
psat pt 1 e a bt
p
o
n 30
t
1
p
1
n 30
t
psat
2
2005
p
2
a ln
b
p2025
208404, capita
Example :
The population of a city A as per the senses records are given below for the years 1950 to 1990. Estimate the population of city A in year 2020 according to senses records for cities B,D, and E that similar to city A.
City A
Year
1950 1960 1970
City B
Year
1910 1920 1930
City C
Year
1915 1925 1935
City D
Year
1913 1923 1933
City E
Year
1914 1924 1934
Pop.
32000 36000 40000
Pop.
25000 32000 38000
Pop.
25000 31000 36000
Pop.
31000 35000 42000
Pop.
30000 35000 42000
1980 1990
45000 51000
City A
Year
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
City B
Year
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
City C
Year
1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
City D
Year
1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003
City E
Year
1914 1924 1934 1944 1954 1964 1974 1984 1994 2004
Pop.
32000 36000 40000 45000 51000
Pop.
25000 32000 38000 43000 51000 59000 69000 80000 93000 110000
Pop.
25000 31000 36000 42000 51000 58000 68000 73000 86000 96000
Pop.
31000 35000 42000 46000 51000 55000 61000 68000 72000 80000
Pop.
30000 35000 42000 47000 51000 53000 58000 62000 68000 71500
pop.( A) 2020
Problems :
1- The recent population of a city is 30000 inhabitant. What is the predicted population after 30 years if the population increases 4000 in 5 years . 2- The recent population of a city is 30000 inhabitant. What is the predicted population after 30 years if the growth rate is 3.5% . 3- The population of a town as per the senses records are given below , estimate the population of the town as on 2040 by all methods. Year 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 Population 58000 65000 73000 81000 95000 115000