Sei sulla pagina 1di 2

c) Maximi n

T h e m i n i mum co nt r ibutio n f r o m e a ch de ci s i on i s :

R oom A (1 0 0 seats )

$ 8 32 , 000

R o o m

B ( 2 0 0 seats )

$ ( 1. 164 . 800 )

R oo m C ( 3 0 0 s ea t s)

$(2 . 66 2 , 400)

R o o m D ( 4 0 0 s e a t s)

$(3 , 3 28 , 000 )

U s i ng maxi m i n t h e d e c isio n wo ul d t here fo r e ch a ng e to b ooki n g r o o m A .

Minimax r e g r et

Minim ax r eg r e t l o oks t o m i ni m i z e th e re g re t of m a king the wro n g d ec i s i on . For ex ampl e , if ro om A is booked o n l y 1 00 p eopl e ca n at ten d . If 200 try to b o ok , E nvic o wi ll r eg r e t not b oo kin g roo m B and b e ing ab l e to b ook al l 2 00 in . E nv i c o w o u l d l ose ou t o n ea rnin g ' $2 , 1 63 . 200 and o nl y ea rn $832 , 000 , th e r e f o r e reg ret l osing t h e d if fe r ence, $1 ,3 3 1 , 200

Demand

10

0

2

300

Max i mum r e gr e t

0 0

100

$

o

, 33 1 , 200 , 8 2 4 , 0 00

1

5

5 , 8 2 4 , 00 0

Room si z e booked

200

$

300

$

1

,9 9 6 , 800

o

4

4

, 4 92 , 800 , 4 92, 8 00

3 , 494 , 400 1 , 49 7, 600 2 , 66 2 , 4 0 0 3 , 494 , 4 00

400

$

4, 160 , 000

2

, 1 63 , 200

4

o

, 1 60 , 0 00

- T o m i ni m iz e t h e ma x i mum r e g re t, En v i co sho uld b o ok r o o m C w i th 3 0 0 pl aces .

------------------- ----------- - -- - --- -

Tips

• A s rr a i b O 'h t for wa r d q u e st i o n th

e x pec t ed v a l ue s .

---------------------

at In VO y es p ro a 1 1r y t / leo r y a n d rh e ca l c ul a tio n

.

.

I

b bili

L

o f

• N ot i ce t h a t p a rt ( b ) r e q u ir es t he max imu m sum p e r a n num. Don ' t forge t t o m ultiply t h e

 

a

mount p e r c o n ce r t by the n u mb e r of con c er t s e ac h ye a r .

(

a)

( i ) Sc e n ario

1

E x pe c t e d d e m a nd = 3 50 ric k e t s p e r concert

S c e n a r io 2

P op u l ar ar t i s t e s L esser k n own a rt i s t es U nk n ow n a rti s t es

Probability

P

0.45

0.30

0.25

De ma nd

X

500

350

200

EV

225

105

50

380

Expec t e d d e m a nd = 38 0 t i c k e t s p e r co n ce r t

- --

----------- - --

( i i ) P a y o f f t abl e s h ow in g p r o fit (WI, W2, W3)

 

D

e mand

 

20

0

350

5 00

 

200

1 2 0

 

1 2 0

1 2 0

3

00

( 5 7)

2 2 5

2 25

P

u r c h ase l ev e l

4 0 0

(2 04 )

2 1 9

3 6 0

 

50

0

( 246 )

1 7 7

600

E xpec te d v a l u e s:

200 r i c k e t s 120 X 1

3 0 0 ri c k e t s (5 7 ) x 0 . 2 5 + 225 x 0 . 7 5

400 ri c k e t s (2 0 4) x 0 . 25 + 2 1 9 x 0. 3 + 36 0 x 0 . 4 5

5

00 t i c ke t s ( 2 46) X 0 .2 5 - l - 1 J 7 x 0. 3 + 6 00 x 0 . 4 5

1

EV

20

1 5 4 . 5

1 76.7

1 . 6

26

Sc e na rio 1

I f d e m and is 3 5 0 t i c ke t s o n a v e r a g e, t h e t i ck e t a g e nt ca n p u r c ha se 20 0 , 300 ,

40 0 o r 5 00 t i c ke t s . T h e ex p e c t e d p r o f i t s w ill b e £ 12 0 , £ 22 5 , £ 219 o r £ 1 7 7

r e s pe c t i ve l y .

O pt i m um

purc h a s e l ev e l i s 3 00 t i ckets p e r co n c e r t. Th i s wo u l d give a n

exp e c te d p r o f i t o f £ 225 p e r con ce r t .

S c e n ari o 2

Th e o p t i m u m p u r c h a s e l e v e l i s 50 0 tic k ets pe r c o n c e r t , w hi c h w i l l g I v e a n

e xp e c t e d pro f i t of £ 2 6 1 . 60 p e r c o n c e r t.

lev e l

( b ) I f d em a nd i s go i n g to b e 20 0 t i ck e t s f o r a c on ce r t th e n th e op t i m u m pu rc h a se wo u l d b e 2 0 0 t i c ket s a nd t h e e x pe c t ed p r o f i t wo u ld b e £1 2 0 p e r c o n ce r t .

S i m i la r l y, i f de m a nd i s go in g r o b e 350 t i ckets th e n th e b es t pr o f it w o uld be £225

a nd if d e m a nd i s g o i ng to b e 500 th e n

th e be s t pr ofit w oul d b e £ 60 0 .

I f t h e tic k e t a g e n t ha s p e rfe c t i n fo r m a t i o n h e wi ll a lw ay s m ak e t h e b es t d e cis ion.

E xp e cte d p r o fit

Va l u e o f pe r f ect info rm a t i o n

A n n u a l va l ue = LL0 5 . 9 0 X 6 0

= 1 20 x 0 . 25 - \ - 225 x 0.3 + 6 0 0 X 0 . 4 5

= £ 367 . 5 0 g iv e n pe rfe ct in f o r m at i o n. = £367 . 50 - £ 2 6 1 . 60

= £ J 05 . 9 0

= £6 , 3 5 4

Wo r ki ng s

( WI ) P r o fi t p e r ti c ket a t d iff e r e nt p u r c h a se lev e l s

'.

Purchase leuel

Discount

Profit per ticket sold

2

00

2

0 %

20

% X

£3 = 60p

3

0 0

25

%

2

5 % X

£ 3 = 7 5 p

400

3

0 %

30

% X

£ 3 = 90p

5 00

4 0 %

4 0 % X £3 = £ 1 . 2 0

- -

16

-- ' ---------