CHAPTER TWO

Renewable Energy
Michael Totten

or millennia, renewable energy from the wind, sea, sun, and land

An early-morning wave breaks into the sunrise in Ventura,
California. There are many ways to tap the energy available
in the ocean, including harnessing underwater currents, tidal
flows, and wave motion. TODD GLASER
F provided all of the Earth’s energy needs. It was the Industrial Era
that drove humanity to use coal, oil, and natural gas fossil fuels (and
eventually nuclear energy) to support its nearly insatiable appetite for power.
Today we face energy and climate crises that threaten both the survival of the
human species as well as biodiversity across the globe. In response, renewables
are once again being pursued as one of the key solutions to meet our needs
in a sustainable way. This chapter focuses on what they actually are and what
they can contribute.
World consumption of fossil fuels has increased exponentially in the past
century, and industrialized countries consume the lion’s share. In 2005, China
consumed as much coal as the United States, Russia, India, and Australia
combined. However, the United States, with only 5% of the world’s population,
consumes one-fourth of the daily global oil supply, whereas China accounts
for 6% of consumption with one-fifth of global population. Between 2000
and 2025, oil use is officially forecast to grow by 44% in the United States and
57% in the world. By 2025, the United States will use as much oil as Canada,
Western and Eastern Europe, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand combined.
The forecasted increase alone in U.S. oil imports will exceed the 2001 total oil
use of China, India, and South Korea (Lovins et al., 2004).
Yet the problems of growth are not limited to the United States. Today, only
12% of the world’s population own cars. Africa and China currently have the
car ownership America enjoyed in 1915. However, China’s compound annual
car growth was 55% between 2001 and 2005. By 2025, its cars could require
the oil output of a Saudi Arabia or two (which now exports one-fourth of
world oil).
Such harrowing growth rates in fossil fuel usage will dramatically increase
greenhouse gas emissions to a level threatening to derail society’s capacity to
stabilize atmospheric concentrations below a safe threshold, triggering multi-
century catastrophic consequences (Hansen, 2005; Hansen et al., 2008;
Romm, 2007). Fortunately, a significant fraction of the growth rate in the
global demand for energy and mobility services can be effectively satisfied
through smart energy efficiency improvements, at tens of trillions of dollars

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 A CLIMATE FOR LIFE
lower cost this century compared to conventional supply expansion. Moreover,
as illuminated in Chapter 1: Energy Efficiency, many of the efficiency gains
actually enhance the cost-effectiveness of wind and solar energy options.
Renewable resources take diverse forms and include solar, wind, geothermal,
biological, and hydrological sources. They can be used to provide any of the
myriad applications for which humankind requires: thermal heat; solid, liquid,
or gaseous chemical fuels; or even electricity.
Many of these sources are highly cost-effective now and will only become
increasingly economical in the coming decades. To facilitate their application
and acceptance, we need to stop providing incentives for outdated and
unsustainable fuel technologies and focus instead on the most ecologically
sustainable renewable sources, notably wind and solar. The combination, in
particular, of vehicle-to-grid system efficiencies and expansion of wind and
solar energy offers multiple benefits: reduced cost of energy services; dramatic
reductions in greenhouse gases, acid rain, and urban air pollutants; deep
reductions in oil imports; and significantly less wilderness habitat converted
and fresh water diverted to grow fuel crops.
It will also take ambitious research, development, and demonstration
initiatives, coupled with market-based incentives and innovative regulatory
policies, to ensure the timely availability of economically attractive and
affordable renewables on a global scale throughout this century.
Abundant Options
Current global energy consumption is about 15 terawatt-years or 475 exajoules,
the equivalent of oil supertanker shipments arriving at the rate of one every
ten minutes, or the distribution of fuel to service stations by 437 million
delivery trucks per year. Projected energy consumption worldwide from 2000
to 2100, assuming no change in human behavior, is approximately 240 times
the current amount—about 3,600 terawatt-years or 113,000 exajoules. Fossil
fuels, also assuming no change in human behavior, would account for three-
fourths of this sum, releasing several trillion tons of greenhouse gases, while
tripling the Earth’s atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (in carbon-
dioxide equivalents) from pre-industrial levels.
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Livestock release methane, and research is showing how to
reduce it. At the same time, methane from animal waste can
be recycled into a renewable gas. PETER ESSICK
Opinion surveys consistently show that more than 80% of citizens prefer
solar and other renewables and energy efficiency to the use of fossil fuels. This
is not surprising, given the unimaginably vast amount of renewable energy
flows worldwide. Consider that global human energy consumption in 2007
amounted to just one hour of sunlight landing on Earth. Expert evaluations
conclude that renewables are quite capable over the long term, in combination
with extensive energy efficiency gains, to economically provide the current
total global energy supply many times over.
Solar. Solar technical potential is conservatively estimated at greater than 50
terawatt-years per year, or more than three times the current annual global
energy use. From 2000 to 2100, solar’s technical potential of 5,000 terawatt-
years is 277% greater than the remaining post-efficiency supply requirements
(i.e., after harnessing the large pool of cost-effective energy-efficiency
opportunities). This solar technical potential was characterized nearly a decade
ago, and faster market developments indicate this potential will increase over
time as continuous scientific advancements and technological breakthroughs
are able to capture an ever-larger fraction of the theoretical potential of
124,000 terawatt-years, or nearly 4 million exajoules per year.
Wind. Wind technical potential is more than 20 terawatt-years per year, or
more than 134% of the current annual global energy use. From 2000 to 2100,
wind’s technical potential of 2,000 terawatt-years is more than 110% greater
than the remaining (post-efficiency) supply requirements. About 1–2% of the
energy coming from the sun is converted into wind energy. Wind’s theoretical
potential is 2,476 terawatt-years, or 78,000 exajoules per year.
Geothermal. Geothermal technical potential is about 160 terawatt-years per
year, or more than ten times the current annual global energy use. The Earth’s
interior reaches temperatures greater than 4,000°C, and this geothermal energy
flows continuously to the surface. From 2000 to 2100, geothermal’s technical
potential of 16,000 terawatt-years is 900% greater than the remaining (post-
efficiency) supply requirements. Geothermal’s theoretical potential worldwide
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is 440,000 terawatt-years, or 14 million exajoules per year. Domestic resources
in the United States are equivalent to a 30,000-year energy supply at the
current rate of consumption.
Biomass. Biomass technical potential is 8.6 terawatt-years per year, or 57% of
current annual global energy use. From 2000 to 2100, biomass’s technical
potential of 860 terawatt-years is 48% of the remaining (post-efficiency)
supply requirements. On average, plant net primary production (NPP) is
about 5 million calories per square meter per year. An important caveat about
biomass availability is that global NPP is the amount of energy available to
all subsequent links in critical ecosystem services plus the food, fiber, animal
feed, and biofuel chain. The Earth’s surface area is about 500 trillion m2. The
net power output stored by plants is thus 19 terawatt-years, or 0.01% (1/100th
of 1%) of the sun’s power emitted to Earth.
Oceans. Ocean power’s technical potential (more than 80% from thermal
energy conversion) is 5 terawatt-years per year, or one-third of current annual
global energy use. From 2000 to 2100, the ocean’s technical potential of 500
terawatt-years is 27% of the remaining (post-efficiency) supply requirements.
There are various potential ocean technologies, such as harnessing the power of
underwater currents, tidal flows, wave motion, and exploiting the temperature
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RENEWABLES
differences between different layers of the ocean
(called Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion). More
research remains to be done on the ecological
impacts of the options on marine life, and these
technologies may play a niche role for some island
and coastal communities.
Hydropower. Hydropower’s technical potential is
1.6 terawatt-years per year, or a bit over 10% of
current annual global energy use. From 2000 to
2100, hydro’s technical potential of 160 terawatt-
years is 9% of the remaining (post-efficiency)
supply requirements. This potential is further limited by serious ecological,
social, and climatic problems associated with some river sites.
Counting the Costs
Not surprisingly, much of the lively and contentious debate over future
energy supplies tends to reduce itself to one key criterion: cost. This is myopic
for two reasons. First, assumptions about long-term technological cost and
performance data inherently contain a fair degree of subjective judgment. The
future is uncertain in too many ways, precluding any technical assessment to
claim complete objectivity or certitude. Moreover, current views on technology
options are heavily conditioned by the long trail of public interventions and
subventions shaping markets and investment patterns. For humanity to avoid
catastrophic climate change, and avert conflicts and wars over oil resources,
there will need to be a dramatic change in the calculus of energy policy-
making and investment decision-making. This means it is a wide-open arena
for all energy options, even the current energy giants, since the accumulated
rules and subsidies currently in place are now facing a radical makeover to
align outcomes for climate-positive, real energy-security results (DeCanio,
2003; Smil, 2003).
Second, cost and climate emissions are just two criteria among many for
ensuring a sustainable smart-energy system worldwide this century. There
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 A CLIMATE FOR LIFE

The cooling towers of a nuclear power plant frame a

traditional windmill in St. Laurent des Eaux in France’s Loire
Valley. Contemporary wind turbines, designed with state-
of-the-art technologies, now deliver electricity at several
times lower cost than nuclear power. THOMAS HOEPKER

is a rich literature developed in the wake of innumerable energy crises over some intractable or intrinsic to the energy option, that have been costly to
the past forty years stressing important attributes that should be sought in human well-being and ecological health.
energy services to achieve a high probability of avoiding adverse impacts and For example, hydroelectric power is promoted as the most cost-effective
unintended consequences (Lovins and Lovins, 1982; Lovins et al., 2004; Smil, renewable energy solution for climate change. This is grossly misleading and
2003). A dozen criteria recur as important attributes of energy supplies: highly inaccurate. Actual measurements of hydrodams in different parts of
the world indicate they are responsible for an estimated 8% of total global
• Is it economically affordable, even for the poorest of the poor
greenhouse gas emissions, and projected expansion in coming decades, mostly
and cash-strapped?
in wilderness areas, could increase this to 15% of total emissions (St. Louis
• Is it safe through its entire life cycle?
et al., 2000). Hydrodams have also been the major reason why one-fourth of
• Is it clean through its entire lifespan?
freshwater species have been driven to extinction worldwide (Bräutigam, 1999)
• Is its risk low and manageable during financial and price volatility?
This is not to say that all hydro facilities release greenhouse gas emissions. Not
• Is it resilient and flexible to volatility, surprises, miscalculations,
all hydroelectric plants require dams, and not all dams generate electricity.
and human error?
And clearly other extenuating circumstances come into play (e.g., the need for
• Is it ecologically sustainable, with no adverse impacts on
irrigation) (WCD, 2000).
biodiversity?
This reinforces the point that using multiple criteria to prioritize preferable
• Is it environmentally benign in that it maintains air, water, and
energy options this century, coupled with the alignment of public policies
soil quality?
and regulations towards this end, is imperative given the looming threat of
• Will it fail gracefully, not catastrophically, in response to abrupt
climate catastrophe in need of fast and massive action, while at the same
surprises or crises?
time avoiding wars and conflicts over the accelerating demand for vulnerable
• Will it rebound easily and swiftly from failures, with low recovery
oil supplies; avoiding and reversing the contamination of air, water, and soil;
cost and limited lost time?
avoiding nuclear weapons proliferation; and preventing the destruction of
• Does it have endogenous learning capacity, with intrinsic new
wildlife and biodiversity loss.
productivity opportunities?
In addition, we must now take into account the increasing occurrence of
• Does it have a robust experience curve for reducing negative
climate-triggered mega-droughts, super-hurricanes, deluge-level floods, larger
externalities and amplifying positive externalities,
and longer wildfires, more widespread pest devastation, and the adverse
including scalable innovation possibilities?
impacts these will have on energy installations. It is also prudent in a post-
• Is it an uninteresting target for malicious disruption,
9/11 world—where nuclear reactors and large refineries now remain on
off the radar of terrorists and military planners?
constant alert to possible terrorist attacks—to design energy systems that are
Among the range of available energy options, only energy services from uninteresting targets (Romm, 2007).
efficiency gains rank at the top in every attribute. All other options are
deficient or weak in two or more of these attributes. The vast expansion of Proper Investment and the Future of Renewables
energy consumption from coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, hydrodams, and In spite of renewables’ overwhelming potential, existing public policies—as well
wood and crops over the past century has revealed a series of grave problems, as the majority of future-looking global energy assessments—reflect negligible

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roles for solar, wind, and geothermal energy sources or the ambitious efficiency
gains posited in Chapter 1. On the contrary, they emphasize massive fossil
fuel carbon capture and storage (CCS) operations, aggressive nuclear power
expansion, enormous biomass plantations, and large-scale hydro development
(Hamrin, Hummel, and Canapa, 2007). This is due less to technical or
economic constraints than to institutional and political inertia.
Over the past half century, governments have provided (and continue to
provide) several trillion dollars per decade in subsidies—nearly two-thirds
have been dedicated to fossil fuels (mostly to coal and oil) and one-fourth
to nuclear power. Only 5% went to all non-hydro renewables (solar thermal,
solar-electric photovoltaics, solar-thermal-electric “concentrated solar power”
systems, terrestrial wind, offshore wind farms, geothermal heat, geothermal-
electric) and all efficiency (buildings, transportation, appliances, industry,
combined heat and power). For each U.S. tax dollar supporting wind power or
solar power research and development over the past fifty years, nuclear power
received 100 times more. Even in the U.S. 2008 federal appropriations, wind
power research and development funding was $40 million vs. $400 million
for nuclear. This makes no sense given the fact that wind power generates
electricity already competitive to nuclear reactors and has a global technical
potential that could provide twice the level of total global energy needs this
century (in combination with ambitious efficiency gains) (GWEC, 2006).
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Moreover, nuclear power continues to receive
unprecedented taxpayer-subsidized insurance
coverage for reactor disasters. A similar taxpayer
burden is now being proposed to underwrite
federally assumed liability of a century-long
leakage risk from carbon capture and storage
projects. Likewise, the fossil fuel industries have
received considerable largesse and investment
stability as a result of long-standing subsidies,
while emerging competitive options like wind
power suffer financial instability because the
Production Tax Credit is sunset every few years,
wreaking havoc by disrupting investment flows (Koplow and Dernbach,
2001).
In sharp contrast, however, is the attention that many other nations, as
well as a number of U.S. states, have focused on the future of renewables to
meet the range of environmental, economic, social, and security criteria noted
above. There is a growing body of literature describing that future, including
policy targets and shifts in financial incentives based on insights gleaned
from socio-economic and technology scenarios, carbon-constrained scenarios,
and future social visions. Policy targets for future shares of renewable energy
are described for regions, specific countries, states/provinces, and cities. By
2020, many targets and scenarios show a 20–35% share of electricity from
renewables, increasing to 50–80% by 2050 under the highest scenarios
(Martinot et al., 2007).
Two scenarios with very ambitious efficiency and renewable goals were
released in 2007 by the European Renewable Energy Commission (EREC,
2007) and by the American Solar Energy Society (ASES, 2007), the latter
limited to the United States. The European Renewable Energy Commission
projects 70% renewables in the electric sector (while constraining nuclear
and large hydro), and the American Solar Energy Society forecasts 50%
renewables in the U.S. electricity sector by 2030 (also ignoring nuclear and
large hydro). The high penetration rates are directly due to the fact that both
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reports estimate half or more of total energy supply being displaced through
lower-cost energy-efficiency gains—by a factor of four to one in the case of
the EREC projects.
The ASES report is highly transparent and richly detailed and strongly
demonstrates that energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies
have the potential to provide most, if not all, of the U.S. carbon emissions
reductions that will be needed to help stabilize the atmospheric concentration
of greenhouse gases (Hamrin, Hummel, and Canapa, 2007). However, while
some renewable options accrue multiple benefits and positive externalities
and should be encouraged, other renewable options trigger adverse impacts or
incur negative tradeoffs. This is especially the case when a supply option like
biofuels is vastly expanded over space and time.
High oil prices have driven policymakers to set high production targets
and enact lavish subsidies for investors to develop biofuels from agricultural
crops. Mobile liquid biofuels—both ethanol derived from corn and sugarcane
and biodiesel derived from oil palm, soybean, and rapeseed—are not only
more expensive than vehicle efficiency gains by a factor of two to five (Lovins
et al., 2004), but also more expensive than system efficiency gains achievable
by connecting plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to the national electricity grid
system. Genetically modified fuels of the future are likely to lower production
costs, but pose many of the same ecological issues associated with current
biofuels (Jacobson, 2007).
Preeminent Solutions: Electric Vehicles
Research and developments over the past two decades in the production of
electric vehicles and separately in the commercialization of hybrid-electric
vehicles have given rise to the recognition that plugging vehicles into the grid
system would accrue several remarkable benefits far superior to continuing to
run vehicles entirely on mobile liquid fuels. As researchers have pointed out,
“The vehicle fleet has twenty times the power capacity, less than one-tenth the
utilization, and one-tenth the capital cost per prime mover kilowatt. Conversely,
utility generators have ten to fifty times longer an operating life and lower
operating costs per kilowatt-hour. To tap Vehicle-to-Grid is to synergistically
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An electric Smart Car advertises the New York City Marathon
in Midtown Manhattan’s Times Square. Using plug-in hybrid
technology, the electricity infrastructure in the United States
could potentially power the daily use of 84% of the nation’s
cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs. CHUCK PEFLEY
use these complementary strengths, and to reconcile the complementary needs
of the driver and grid manager” (Kempton and Tomić, 2005).
As discussed in the chapter on efficiency and smart energy services, the
existing U.S. grid could recharge 80% of America’s 200+ million vehicle fleet
if they were plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, without having to build a new
power plant. This would have the positive effect of eliminating 52% of U.S.
oil imports (340 billion liters per year) worth some $350 billion savings at the
gas pump, while also reducing total U.S. carbon dioxide emissions by 27%
(PNNL, 2007).
As with the market diffusion rate of any major technological innovation
(accelerated to some degree by favorable public policies and incentives),
declining manufacturing costs and vehicle prices will occur with accumulated
experience of scaled-up production. Researchers note another tremendous
benefit of vehicle-to-grid over time, as production costs drop: providing
battery storage for intermittent wind power and solar electricity generation.
Research calculations suggest that vehicle-to-grid could stabilize large-scale
(one-half of U.S. electricity) wind power with 3% of the fleet dedicated to
regulation for wind, plus 8% to 38% of the fleet providing operating reserves
or storage for wind (Kempton and Tomić, 2005). For context, currently half
of U.S. electricity is coal-fired.
The vehicle-to-grid technological revolution is driven by many of the same
digital electronics and advanced materials that enable production and operation
of high-efficiency, lower energy-consuming smart appliances, smart grids,
smart buildings, and smart cars. It offers an economic development strategy
for developed and developing countries alike. With the majority of the world’s
population becoming urban-based, electric and hybrid-electric vehicles can
accommodate the typical urban driving cycles of 16 to 48 kilometers per day.
Longer distances can be provided by the flexible fuel component derived from
local and regional biowastes.
The Role of Biofuels
Local and regional biowastes can be converted to biofuels, providing the
mobile fuels essential for long-range driving beyond electric battery capacity.
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Such a modest use of biofuels would prevent some of the near-intractable
problems associated with large-scale biofuel consumption.
Unfortunately, one unintended negative consequence of corn-based
ethanol expansion in the United States is that it drives soy production to
Brazil and Argentina (where it is grown mainly for animal feed), which leads
to deforestation and destruction of biodiversity-rich savannah grasslands
and Amazon ecosystems (CARD, 2007; Searchinger et al., 2008; Fargione et
al., 2008). Similarly, oil palm plantations in tropical countries, already one
of the major causes of biodiversity loss, are the preferred low-cost feedstock
for biodiesel. Some of the last remaining intact wilderness habitats for
mega-charismatic species like the orangutan and the Sumatran tiger, and
also rhino and elephant are threatened with conversion to oil palm. Species
extinction will be the outcome of people “putting an orangutan in your
tank.”
Minimizing biofuel expansion reduces the adverse impacts on ecosystems
and biodiversity loss in tropical countries already being caused by ethanol and
biodiesel plantation growth (Morton et al., 2006; Fearnside, 2002; Killeen,
2007). It also avoids driving up food prices (CARD, 2007).
Harnessing the Sun and the Wind
Solar, wind, and geothermal energy systems are not only the three largest
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RENEWABLES
renewable resources; accumulated scientific
knowledge also gives good indication they will
incur the smallest climate and ecological footprints
when scaled up globally and operated over long
time periods. Solar photovoltaics and wind power
have the added advantage of requiring 95% less
water per terawatt-year than coal or nuclear power,
biopower or solar-thermal-electric “concentrated
solar power” (CSP) systems.
In a vehicle-to-grid connected world, with
solar and wind power stored in the mass
distribution of plug-in hybrid electric batteries,
sixty and thirty times less land area, respectively, would be needed than in
the case of biofuels for the same power output (Jacobson, 2007). Roughly
7% of the U.S.’s 50 million hectares of urban land area covered with solar
photovoltaic panels at today’s 10%-efficient systems could provide 100% of
U.S. electricity. Brownfields could provide most of the land area. Building-
integrated photovoltaic systems (BIPVs) could provide half of the power
(Kazmerski, 2002; Zweibel, 2004). Alternatively, around 2.5% of the North
American Great Plains with dispersed wind farms—or roughly 92 million
out of 363 million hectares—could provide 100% of U.S. electricity. The
actual footprint of the several hundred thousand multi-megawatt turbines,
hypothetically squeezed into one spot, would be less than the size of one large
Wyoming coal strip mine (Komanoff, 2006; Williams, 2001). Even when
spaced out to optimize wind capture, 90% of the 2.5% could still be farmed,
ranched, or ecologically restored.
Several valuable benefits would accrue to rural communities from such
a strategy. Farmers and ranchers can earn, on average, twice as much from
wind farm royalty payments than they currently obtain from crop and
animal farming. Currently 75% of the Great Plains is farmed or ranched,
but only generates 5% of the region’s economic output. Shifting to wind
farming could produce twice as much economic output on thirty-five times
less land area. Similarly, vast wind resources are available in China and
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India, as well as along coastal regions throughout the world (Totten, 2007;
GWEC, 2006; NREL, 2006). China and India will account for 80% of
coal increase by 2030. China annually expands its coal use equivalent to
that of the United Kingdom. It surpassed the United States in 2007 as
the world’s top greenhouse gas emitter. However, China’s wind technical
potential is estimated at 2 million megawatts, 400% larger than China’s
total electric generation capacity. In addition, twice as much solar energy
lands on China each year than could be produced from its 800 billion tons
of coal over the next several centuries.
Economies of Efficiency—Combining Heat and Power
Instead of targeting massive investments into central, large-scale, coal, nuclear,
and hydroelectric generating stations, cities around the world should be
looking for energy system efficiencies that could enable phasing in use of local
and regional biological wastes over the long-term. One of the proven options
available globally is decentralized combined heat and power. Whereas central
thermal power plants vent 70% of the energy when generating electricity,
combined heat and power systems capture this waste heat to cogenerate
two, three, or four different energy services (heat, steam, electricity, cooling).
Moreover, in being sited close to the point of use, combined heat and power
systems require significantly less transmission and distribution investment
than centralized power plants, as well as avoiding the 15% transmission and
distribution line losses (WADE, 2004). For example, just the waste heat
discarded from U.S. power plants is equivalent to 1.2 times Japan’s total
energy use.
Recent assessments indicate that if China moved to 100% high-efficiency
decentralized combined heat and power systems by 2021, retail and capital
cost savings could reach $400 billion. At no extra cost, new emissions of
carbon dioxide would drop 56%, avoiding 400 million tons of such emissions
per year, and nitrogen oxide and sulfur dioxide emissions would decline by
90%. But these results are possible only if the Chinese government adopts
key policies enabling a faster rate of implementation than the current annual
combined heat and power addition of 3,000 megawatts. Some 100,000
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Climate4Life.indb 84
The people of Hveragerdi, in southwest Iceland, use
geothermal energy to heat their greenhouses. Geothermal
heat in Iceland is also used for swimming pools, to bake
bread, and to heat up footpaths, streets, and parking spaces.
ARCTIC-IMAGES/CORBIS
megawatts of combined heat and power could be online in several years if a
number of important power sector reforms occur (WADE, 2004).
For nations like China facing water crises, combined heat and power offers
a highly cost-effective system efficiency option for combining the delivery of
energy and potable water. Water consumes considerable energy throughout
the process of extracting, pumping, distributing, heating, and disposing.
In California, for example, 20% of the electricity and one-third of natural
gas are consumed by the water sector (NRDC and Pacific Institute, 2004).
Delivering water services efficiently saves money, reduces air pollution, and
cuts greenhouse gases. China faces the additional problem that its water
resources per capita may decline to around 1,700 cubic meters by 2050, which
is the threshold of severe water scarcity. Water shortage already has become a
critical constraint for socio-economic development in northern China, where
per capita levels are now below 300 cubic meters. To solve or eliminate water
shortage problems, China is now pursuing all water-efficiency opportunities
(e.g., drip irrigation) that can cut water use by two-thirds on farms (which
consume 80% of all water).
Alternative Water Supplies
Meanwhile, wastewater and seawater desalination are drawing more and
more attention from researchers and policy-makers as alternative water supply
sources (Zhou and Tol, 2003).
Desalination costs currently vary by a factor of seven or more, depending on
the type of feedwater (brackish, waste, or seawater), the available concentrate
disposal options, the proximity to distribution systems, and the availability
and cost of power. Desalination’s primary operating cost is for power. One
cubic kilometer (one trillion liters) of wastewater or seawater desalination
requires about 500 megawatts of power. The reduction in unit energy use by
desalination plants has been among the most dramatic improvements in recent
years due to improvement in energy recovery systems. Estimates considered
valid for China today range from a cost of $0.60 per cubic meter (1,000 liters)
for brackish and wastewater desalination to $1 per cubic meter for seawater
desalination by reverse osmosis (Zhi, Totten, and Chou, 2006).
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Extrapolating from technological trends, and given the promise of
ongoing innovations in lower-cost, higher-performance membranes, seawater
desalination costs will continue to fall. The average cost may decline to
$0.30 per cubic meter in 2025. For comparison, China’s average (subsidized)
water prices are $0.25 per cubic meter for domestic and industrial use, $0.34
per cubic meter for commercial use, $0.60 per cubic meter in Tianjin and
Dalian, and approaching $0.80 per cubic meter at full pricing in cities like
Beijing.
Desalination of wastewater via combined heat and power can capture
double benefits: it reduces contaminated discharges into rivers and, instead,
expands the city’s freshwater supplies at lower cost than importing remote water
resources. The Reverse Osmosis membrane process is universally considered
to be the most promising technology for brackish and seawater desalination
A model of using reverse osmosis membranes powered by combined heat and
power is the Ashkelon plant in Israel, which produces 100 million cubic meters
per year of potable water at a highly cost-effective 50 cents per cubic meter.
China’s total wastewater discharges annually exceed 60 cubic kilometers (60
trillion liters). As of the late 1990s, less than one-seventh of this wastewater
was treated. Close to 600 million Chinese people have water supplies that are
contaminated by animal and human waste. Harnessing 30,000 megawatts
of co-generation available in cities and industrial facilities potentially could
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RENEWABLES
operate reverse osmosis technologies to purify
these wastewaters, while also providing ancillary
energy services like space and water heating and
cooling.
The Final Hope
As the chapter on efficiency and smart energy
services describes, ensuring the capture of the
immense pool of efficiency opportunities could
deliver more than half of the world’s cumulative
energy services at lower cost and risk than
expanding energy supplies, replacing the need
for 1,800 terawatt-years or 57,000 exajoules of energy supplies. Envision
eliminating the need for 13.8 billion coal railcars this century. However, that
still leaves a demand for another 1,800 terawatt-years or 57,000 exajoules of
energy supply. A lively debate has ensued as to the best options for satisfying
this immense growth.
Smarter delivery of energy services through efficiency gains can effectively
satisfy most of this growth, while saving money and reducing emissions
provide ancillary benefits. Combining these with steady increases in harnessing
energy services powered by wind, solar, geothermal, and biowastes promises
society a long-term, clean, safe, secure, and ecologically sound energy system.
Achieving this ambitious but feasible outcome is fundamental for resolving
climate and energy crises, while bringing all of humanity to health and
well-being and preventing the unnecessary extinction of the planet’s rich
biodiversity of plants and animals.
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