WOOD

International WOOD MARKETS Group Inc.

Suite 603, 55 E. Cordova Street, Vancouver, BC CANADA V6A 0A5 TEL +1 604-801-5996 FAX +1 604-801-5997 www.woodmarkets.com

MARKETS

Attention Timber and Forest Industry Players:

The impact of the pine beetle in BC will create winners, losers and new opportunities

The mountain pine beetle in BC, as well as in western North

America, will continue to have a massive and direct effect on global timber and wood products supply and demand. The huge loss of sawlog timber in BC will be a major game-changer in the traditional SPF lumber and panel markets in Canada, the U.S. and around the world. However, new business opportunities are emerging as a result of the beetle devastation, and this is creating some viable alternatives in BC for new wood biomass entrepreneurs. Simultaneously, reduced provincial SPF lumber output will lead to some dramatic changes to the business (and customers) for many suppliers in and outside of North America. International WOOD MARKETS Group and its two strategic partners are releasing a second edition to our 2010 mountain pine beetle report. The 2012 edition, available in April, will further clarify and update a number of specific issues around the beetles impact, and additionally address new opportunities within the forest industry in BC. While similar to the 2010 report, the second edition will provide updated analysis and forecasts on the beetles impact during the next 20 years, and examine BC Interior timber and wood fibre availability and its production outlook, seeking to address the question What does all this mean?. BC Mountain Pine Beetle: Evolving Impacts & Opportunities addresses key issues and answers questions related to the future outlook of the BC Interior forest industry, and the impact of reduced output of traditional commodity wood products. New to the second edition will be a profile of the BC Coast industry and how it may benefit and prosper from the beetles rampage.

The coming of a lumber/wood products super-cycle, coupled with North American shortages of timber and wood products (based on the beetles impact in BC), will drive prices to new highs, as forecast in the report. The timing and magnitude of these massive supply/demand drivers should be of huge interest to all producers, traders and investors! BC Mountain Pine Beetle: Evolving Impacts & Opportunities addresses the potential outcomes arising from this unprecedented supply shock, and brings together/presents the following: The Project Team: In-depth knowledge of BC forests, and the global timber and wood products industries. The Modeling: The teams proprietary BC Fibre Model. The Changes: Changes in BC and new opportunities. The Forecasts: Aggregated BC Interior and Coast outlooks for available harvest, as well as sawlogs, lumber, plywood, sawdust/shavings, wood chips and residual biomass. The North American Impact: Predicts timing of shortages and higher prices, and how producers could benefit from the reality of changing BC production by about mid-decade. Subscribe by February 29, 2012 to take advantage of our Early Bird Discount Prices (see brochure for details). Sincerely yours, INTERNATIONAL WOOD MARKETS group INC.

Russell E. Taylor President and Publisher

BC Mountain Pine Beetle: Evolving Impacts & Opportunities report features five strategic chapters
Mountain Pine Beetle Impacts in BC For further information, please contact us directly BC Interior Fibre & Wood Products Outlook to 2031 by phone or email (info@woodmarkets.com), or visit BC Coast Fibre & Wood Products Outlook to 2031 http://www.woodmarkets.com/p_specialreports.html BC MPB Sawmill Economics & Break-even Analysis North American Lumber Supply/Demand Balance to 2031 Release Date: April 2012

Evolving Impacts & Opportunities

Follow-up report to BC Interior: Mountain Pine Beetle Attack

BC Mountain Pine Beetle:

Provides new perspectives on the BC industry and how it could survive and prosper despite the reality of a reduced timber harvest!

second Edition!

Featuring
An overview of the key impacts on

Photos courtesy of Forest Innovation Investment Ltd. and BC Ministry of Forests

Available April 2012

the BC industry
A proprietary modeling of BC Interior

and BC coastal fibre availability and wood products production after the beetle
An assessment of new forest sector

opportunities, including bio-energy and pellets through 2031

North America lumber supply/

demand outlook to 2031 and the BC industrys fit in global markets after the beetle
An assessment of sawmilling

economics from processing MPB-killed trees

Published by

International Wood Markets Group Inc. Vancouver, BC

about this second edition report

background
The mountain pine beetle has devastated lodgepole pine forests in the province of British Columbia. However, many of the impacts have already been felt in the industry, with harvest levels now falling and many mills already closed. Looking forward, opportunities remain for both new industries and those surviving the global market downturn and direct impact of the beetle attack. BC Mountain Pine Beetle: Evolving Impacts & Opportunities is a follow-up to the 2010 landmark report, BC Interior: Mountain Pine Beetle Attack. The 2012 report takes a different approach, however, by providing more perspectives on the state of the industry and how it will survive and even prosper despite the reality of a reduced timber harvest. BC Mountain Pine Beetle: Evolving Impacts & Opportunities will provide more of an answer to BCs future, including the following: An analytical perspective on BCs forest sector opportunities that will occur as a result of the beetle in terms of lumber, panels, pulp and a wide range of emerging bio-energy businesses; The outlook for growing global demand for solid wood products, and where BC fits in as the super-cycle emerges; How the BC Interiors industry has reacted to the impact of the beetle so far, and what is yet to come in terms of both mill closures, break-even costs, and new business opportunities; What some of the business and economic opportunities are for the remaining solid wood sectors in the BC Interior (SPF) and Coast regions; and Why the final impact of the beetle on BCs forest industry may be less significant than initially forecast. A review of the existing research has been coupled with field visits and used in conjunction with the proprietary BC Fibre Model, providing the most accurate assessment of how the provinces industry has reacted and will look over the next twenty years (2031). The project team brings complementary skills and different perspectives in considering all of the elements, factors and issues that will impact BCs forest industry going forward. As in the 2010 report, the unique part of the study is the selection of dozens of input

How the 2012 Report Differs from the 2010 Report

There will be fewer regional details, but the key results will be summarized in terms of how each industry is being impacted, e.g., where fibre-supply deficits or surpluses are forecast, and what this all means! More consideration is given to where global demand is headed, and how potential market forces will impact wood product processors in the BC Interior and Coast. A comprehensive assessment of how the bio-energy sector could be a game-changer in terms of how the BC lumber and pulp industries operate. The BC Coast will be assessed, with a focus on how its under-utilized fibre supply could attract new investment.
Note: Subscribers can obtain further details or run specific regional or province-wide scenarios through the BC Fibre Model on a custom basis and at discounted rates.

variables (forests, mills, recoveries, etc.) used in the proprietary BC Fibre Model. The model is able to generate a strategic assessment of the BC Interiors log, chip, residual fibre and biomass availability at a strategic level over a planning horizon of two decades, yielding a unique outlook. In combination with assessments of how the resulting lumber, panel and pulp production may be affected over the planning horizon, the final analysis will demonstrate how the BC industry will remain a regional and global force in forest products markets. The model incorporates the project teams knowledge of the industry, including current data on all BC log and residual fibre-consuming mills. Together with estimates of the annual allowable cut (AAC) and harvest for each timber supply region, it allows for the incorporation of log and fibre availability over the planning period, for strategic purposes. For the 28 years the model covers (20052031), the initial seven are used to benchmark the actual trends, while the later years (20122031) provide forecasts.

proposed Table of Contents

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 INTRODUCTION & demand drivers
Developments in demand dynamics in North America and globally, and why supply will be limited

PROJECT TEAM
International Wood Markets Group Inc.
Vancouver, BC

3 Mountain Pine Beetle IMPACTS IN BC

New MPB kill data and regional implications Progress on forecast mill closures and AAC reductions BC Interior fibre forecasts (what has really changed regionally?)

WOOD MARKETS (www.woodmarkets.com) provides strategic and leading-edge business and market intelligence services to the global solid wood products industry. Our consultants specialize in solid wood products research, analysis, and business planning and corporate strategies, and publish a number of multi-client reports, including the WOOD MARKETS Monthly International Report. The lead consultants for this project are Russell Taylor, RPF, MBA and Gerry Van Leeuwen, B. Comm., both of whom have more than 35 years experience in the BC sawmilling and panel industries, and its major markets.

4 BC Interior Production Outlook to 2031

Timber Harvest Sawlogs Lumber/Plywood Chips Other Biomass (mill residual and forest-based material) An overview of how the B.C. forest industry could thrive despite sawmill closures

MDT Management Decision and Technology Ltd.

Ladysmith, BC

Jim Girvan, RPF, MBA, is principal of Management Deci-

5 BC Coast production outlook to 2031

Timber harvest Lumber outlook and new capacity possibilities

sion and Technology Ltd. Mr. Girvan is recognized as an authority on timber supply, economic and statistical analysis, forecasting and finance. A professional forester, he has more than 30 years experience helping small businesses, large corporations and financial institutions to understand and plan for the changing BC forest industry. Mr. Girvan offers innovative solutions to difficult forest industry issues utilizing timber-supply and fibre-flow modeling and analysis. He specifically developed the BC Fibre Model to address the impact of the mountain pine beetle on BCs timber and wood products industry.

6 BC MPB sawmill economics

Logging and sawmilling proformas Margin potential or break-even prices

7 NORTH AMERICAN LUMBER SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE

Impact of reduced BC lumber output on the North American lumber supply/demand balance North America lumber supply/demand outlook to 2031, including the impact of the pending super-cycle North American/global winners and losers (who and where)

Murray Hall Consulting

Maple Bay, BC

Murray Hall provides consulting services in the areas of fibre supply, fibre quality, pulp and paper operations, and sawmill operations. Mr. Hall has over three decades experience in managing sawmill activities, coordinating pulp and paper fibre operations, quality control, development of cost structures, and strategic planning. His experience extends to conducting geographical fibre and sawmill viability studies, analyzing regional fibre competitive forces, ISO and Controlled Wood certifications, and developing forestry-based strategic plans in Western Canada and the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Mr. Hall is co-developer of the BC Fibre Model.

APPENDIces
Other relevant information

Bc mountain pine beetle:

Evolving Impacts & Opportunities
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